Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Free agent NT Paul Soliai is apparently set to visit the Denver Donkeys Broncos, according to NFL Network.

I’ve always hated the Broncos more than the Raiders. I grew up during the Elway era and boy do I hate that guy. I hate that he now is running the Broncos. I hate that he got Peyton Manning to visit the Donks and not the Chiefs. I now hate that he got Soliai in for a visit before the Chiefs. I also hate that after all of these years, nobody has kicked him in the teeth.

Bitter? Yes. But it is warranted. (more…)

Lost in the almost endless stream of Peyton Manning information is the fact that the NFL’s free agency signing period is set to open on Tuesday. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’ve got Manning Fever. At the time I’m writing this, there is a report out of Denver that says the Chiefs are out of the running for Manning. If at the time this article posts word has gotten out that Manning has officially signed, I have one of two possible things to say:

If the Denver Post is wrong and he signed with KC then its “WOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!!!!!! WE GOT MANNING!!!!!!!! WE’RE GOING TO THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!

or

If he signed with anyone else “Manning is washed up! We don’t need him. We’ll be just fine without him as long as we build on the offensive line, get our injured star players back to full strength, and continue to build on what was already a very good defense.”

If he hasn’t signed yet, then we’ll stay in wait-and-see mode. Look, I won’t lie, if Manning picks the Donkeys over the Chiefs, it will hurt. It also means I’ll be jacked up twice a year for our up-and-coming defense to go knock the stuffing out of him. However, regardless of what Manning decides, the Chiefs simply MUST be active and aggressive come the start of free agency on Tuesday. This team (with or without Manning) needs to fill some holes. So whether you’re on Cloud Nine because Manning is a Chief or drowning in your sorrows because he’s not, you need to remember that building a Super Bowl contender means having a great all-around roster. So I thought it would be a good idea to make up a short list of some of the big names at key positions that the Chiefs could target in free agency. It would make my day if in the first 24 hours of free agency the Chiefs signed one or more of the following players.

Nose Tackle: Paul Soliai, Sammie Lee Hill, or Antonio Garay

Nov 20, 2011; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins nose tackle Paul Soliai (96) before a game against the Buffalo Bills at Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins won 35-8. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Paul Soliai (28 years old, 6-4, 355 lbs.) is (in my opinion) the clear top NT available on the free agent market. Sione Pouha was probably a close second, but Pouha just re-signed with the Jets. That leaves Soliai as THE only big time NT available. Even though right tackle may be a bigger need, the lack of quality free agents available at that position also makes Soliai the biggest possible big splash signing that would drastically upgrade the Chiefs for next season at any position (not counting a certain QB that we’ve already discussed, a lot). If the Chiefs can’t land Soliai then I see two other free agent options. My next choice would be a lesser known player, Sammie Lee Hill, from Detroit. Hill is only 25 years old and listed at about 6-4 and 330 lbs. He has played in 44 games with 15 starts in his three years in Detroit and is known to be a stout run defender. Obviously the Chiefs would have to feel he was capable of playing the NT in a 3-4 after playing in a 4-3 in Motown, but if so, he offers more upside then the other “name” NT on the market, Antonio Garay (32 years old, 6-4, 320 lbs). Garay is a good player and would upgrade the position as well, but if the Chiefs don’t grab one of those options then the NT position could be a real concern next year.

Offensive Line: Carl Nicks or Ben Grubbs

September 26, 2010; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens guard Ben Grubbs (66) during the game against the Cleveland Browns at M

Like I just said above, RT is the biggest need on the offensive line but there really aren’t any “big splash” offensive tackles available to sign. Also, I believe the options at OT in the draft are better then those in free agency. If the Chiefs wanted to add some big time talent to the offensive line in free agency it would be with one of these Pro Bowl caliber offensive guards. Carl Nicks may just be the best OG in all of the NFL. The only problem is that he has let it be known that he expects to be paid like he is as well. Despite the Chiefs great salary cap situation, I don’t know that they would sign both Nicks and Manning. Frankly, Nicks and Soliai might be pushing it. However, if they don’t land Manning and/or don’t break the bank on a NT then Nicks could be a legit option. If they do somehow sign Manning and/or pay big money for a NT than Baltimore’s Ben Grubbs would be a great second option that shouldn’t cost as much as Nicks. If Nicks really is wanting LT type money, Grubbs may end up being the better value for the price anyway.

Running Back: Ben Jarvis Green Ellis or Mike Tolbert

Oct 2, 2011; Oakland, CA, USA; New England Patriots running back Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis (42) is pursued by Oakland Raiders defensive tackles Jarvis Moss (94) and John Henderson (79) at the O.co Coliseum. The Patriots defeated the Raiders 31-19. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

I think its safe to assume that the Chiefs are going to be on the market for another running back to share the load with Jamaal Charles. Jackie Battle did well last season, but I think the fact that KC has not re-signed him yet is a sign that they are looking for an upgrade at the #2 RB spot. This makes sense for a couple of reasons. First, Jamaal Charles is a small framed back coming off a major injury. It would make sense for the Chiefs to be looking for a #2 RB that could step in and be the feature back should Charles have some kind of a set back. Second, the Chiefs led the league in rushing two seasons ago using a two-back system. Adding a quality back like Green-Ellis or Tolbert to pair with JC would put the Chiefs in a great position to get back to the top of the league in rushing. I prefer Green-Ellis because I think he would make a better all-around back should Charles miss time, but Tolbert has proven to be a solid all around back in his own right.

(On a side note, I’m actually hoping the Chiefs draft Boise State’s Doug Martin in the second round to be their #2 RB, but signing one of these two would be a solid way to go too and would free up another draft pick to fill other needs.)

Quarterback: (If not Manning) Kyle Orton or Chad Henne

Jan 1 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton (8) prepares to pass during the first quarter of the game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

Obviously, Peyton Manning would be the ultimate QB signing for the Chiefs, but if that doesn’t work out then they still need to bring in someone to compete with Matt Cassel. I’m not sure if I could give either Orton or Henne an upper hand in this one. Orton knows the team from his time here last season and Henne knows new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll from their time together in Miami. Neither one is an automatic upgrade over Cassel, but either one is capable of challenging him for the starting spot. Last season should have proved to Scott Pioli that you must have a #2 QB that you trust starting games. If the Chiefs have lost out on Manning, then they better pony up for one of these two options.

I think we all know that the Chiefs could use more help/depth at many other positions as well, but I believe that in terms of big names or players that could be big time contributors next season these are some of the main names you should be watching for once free agency starts. I believe the Chiefs can be a playoff team next season regardless of what happens with Manning. However, they are going to need a couple of guys off this list to make it happen. So make sure you don’t decide if the Chiefs “aced” or “flunked” the offseason based on what happens with #18. There’s a lot more to it than that.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Tradeoffs (sigh).

I haven’t seen the 2011 charting stat numbers yet, but I can tell you that in 2010, Stanford Routt, when paired up with Nmandi Asomugha, was a top shelf pass defender. Football Outsiders, for example, ranked him with the 3rd highest success rate, with 66% of passes defended. Carr ranked 10th in that department with 61% of passes defended. In fact, both scored better than Brandon Flowers, for what it’s worth. Also worth noting is that Routt only gave up 5.7 yards per pass to Carr’s 7.1 yd/pass. Given all that, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to expect Routt’s production to parallel his 2010 situation playing alongside Flowers.

There are also rumors circulating in the media that Routt was somebody for whom Romeo Crennel actively lobbied. If true, I think that’s also pretty significant in terms of scheme fit. For a really well-written, compelling look into the player we’re getting in Stanford Routt, I recommend Doug Farrar’s (Yahoo! Sports) recent piece on him. Long story short, I personally feel this is a really good signing no matter how you slice it.

Now that Routt is inked, it seems that the popular assumption, or expectation if you will, is that all this means is that Pioli got himself a guy with skills very comparable to those of Carr for what we think could be 2 or 3 million less per year. Cynically put, Pioli avoided some unnecessary negotation stress by landing a comparable replacement for Carr who, oh by the way, just so happens to be cheaper to pay. Given that, one is then further tempted to think that the safe, conservative move now is to simply franchise Bowe and let Carr walk. CB dilemma solved, franchise tag dilemma solved, all good.

Well guess what? I’m going to go against the grain and offer an even better strategy. Scotty, I hope you’re reading this (I also hope that after reading this, you’ll finally start responding to those thousands of suggestion letters I’ve sent you dammit!).

Bowe, while inconsistent at times, has shown the potential to be a gamechanger. That’s worth something in the NFL. I think he can also be considered a foundational player for the Chiefs. Also worth something. Still, I believe that Bowe, rather than being tagged, ought to be locked up into a long-term deal before free agency hits. Unless you’re planning to shop him– in and of itself a risky strategy on many fronts– I see no reason not to just sign him to a comfortable, reasonable, market value contract.

So why no tag for Bowe you ask? Well, first off because if you really want him, and you’ve come up with a good backup plan for Carr, then there’s really no reason whatsoever for not focusing all of your attention and energy on getting a deal done to make Bowe’s long-term presence as a Chief into reality. Not just that, but doesn’t it also help to further underscore that whole PR pledgy thingy to develop and retain core players?

As promising and exciting and foundational as Bowe might seem, it is also important to recognize that he simply has not proven himself to be among of the 5 best receivers in the league which, in a certain sense, is what the franchise tag kind of suggests. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the 12th best WR going into 2012 and 19th best among their Dynasty Rankings. Similarly, Football Outsiders ranked Bowe 51st in DVOA and 31st in DYAR for 2011. Not exactly what you’d call eye-popping production.

We all know that Bowe every once in awhile makes for some fun highlight reel footage, but does he honestly merit franchise tag money? Especially when you’re most likely not going to find many teams willing to exchange a high value pick for him? I think you see my point. Bottom line, paying Bowe like he’s a top 5 WR really doesn’t sound all that Clark-like to me. Lest we forget, Bowe was a 1st round draft pick– just how likely is it that we can get that for him now? ROI people, ROI.

Moving on, if Pioli can sign Bowe to a long-term deal before free agency hits, he’ll still have a franchise tag at his disposal, right? Well, please tell me then what would be the folly in using that tag on Carr? In fact, franchising Carr seems to me like the best of all possible moves at this point and I’m going to offer some reasons as to why that is so.

It’s a proverbial seller’s market for top tier CBs and this year is no different. Justifiable or not, Carr is almost certain to command an elite CB level of monetary respect out on the open market. What’s more, it seems there could be some healthy competition for a CB of Carr’s caliber. I can think of at least a couple of teams out there that are desperately needing major secondary talent who, oh by the way, also happen to have some pretty interesting draft pick horsepower to make a lucrative deal happen for the Chiefs. For example, both the Patriots and the Bengals are in need of quality CB help and both are holding on to spare 1st round picks. Just imagine all of the tantalizing draft possibilities that would suddenly open up for the Chiefs if that were to happen?

Move up and get a franchise QB? Check.
Pick up a couple of first round offensive linemen? Check.
Control the draft by moving down? Check.

So you say, “well Double D, suppose nobody is willing to pony up a high draft pick for Carr? Aren’t you then stuck with an overpaid secondary that you’re underutilizing most of the time because, well, as everybody knows, you really only need 2 good corners? Very, very risky. Very expensive (i.e., unClark-like). Not good. Or as my AA colleague Big Matt might say ‘Mattie no likey.’”

Not good? How about not so fast?

Merlin and I were texting back and forth on this whole deal the other day and he brought to my attention a pretty interesting fact of which I was previously unaware. To wit, an NFL nickel plays about 50% of all snaps currently. That is a lot. On top of that, the more success you have at containing teams on 1st down, the more likely it is that you’ll see the nickel utilized on successive downs. In fact, I think with the right personnel, a pretty compelling argument can be made for having the nickel formation as your base D.

When I think of Flowers, Carr, and Routt being on the field all at the same time, I start thinking “two’s company, but hey, three’s a party!” Arenas might excel at wrapping up receivers pretty quickly after the catch but he’s not exactly setting the world on fire when it comes to preventing that catch from happening in the first place. Just sayin.

As many on the message boards here have already suggested, the Routt signing may indeed turn out to be a very forward thinking approach on the part of Crennel and Pioli. In fact, passing against a defensive backfield comprised primarily of Flowers, Carr and Routt would be close to impossible. In this increasingly pass-friendly league, I have to think that that level of secondary presence would basically relegate opposing offenses to beating you with their running game, and maybe tossing in a few dink and dunks for good measure (which painfully brings to mind a certain low-scoring, rather flaccid offense with which I happen to be pretty familiar).

The only practical alternative to going with the run would be to simultaneously risk a lot of coverage sacks. Unless your QB can progress through his reads quickly and also get rid of the ball in a hurry, you’re gonna be in a heap of trouble. If a team goes run, we’ll have DJ, Berry, and perhaps Belcher up in there to contain it. If a team opts to pass, their dealing with a DB set of Flowers, Routt, Carr, and Berry with maybe DJ in coverage while Hali & Houston, along with either an ILB, S, or CB, are all breathing fire in your backfield.

Next– just stay with me here– we grab a very gettable guy in the form of one Paul Soliai as our NT. Tell me, how can that cannot be considered a run stuffing, block eating, shutdown, ballhawking, nightmare defense?

So, armed on defense, we head into the draft to start filling holes on offense.

Final (crazy?) thought. While neither has any experience at the position (at least none of which I’m aware), both Carr and Routt possess prototypical size and speed to play Safety, Routt perhaps moreso because of his physicality. Might this signing, combined with the retention Carr, offer more options and much needed depth at that position as well? I know, stupid idea, probably makes more sense to just plug Sabby Piscatelli whenever the need arises, right? I’m sure we’ll be just fine should Eric Berry happen to miss any games.

That’s my Double Take.

Sound off Addicts!

According to Brian Williamson of ESPN.com, the Chiefs have $62 million in cap space going into the 2012 season. Chiefs Nation has its fingers crossed that they will actually spend said money. If they do, this is where methinks it should go, in order of priority:

1.) Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe and CB Brandon Carr.

I put these two together, partially to make a point. I think it is important to point out just how cool it is that the Chiefs have two top-10 free agents and the cash to re-sign them. Carr was a fifth-round pick and represents the type of talent this team needs to draft, reward and build around in the future. Not all fifth rounders are going to become quality starters, but it sends a powerful message throughout the organization that no matter how you make it to Arrowhead, if you work hard, develop and don’t get into locker room drama or off-the-field problems, you will be heavily rewarded.

Only one can get the tag, so all things being equal, it makes the most sense to franchise Bowe, because the franchise number for wideouts is $1.2 million cheaper than it is for cornerbacks this year. I’m also more enthusiastic about Carr long-term than Bowe. Bowe is fantastic at times, but he’s had enough issues to where there are more concerns about giving him a monster long-term deal. Carr has been a solid workman – no drama, no quitting, no mug shots. Giving Carr a long-term deal should be easy, whereas some other issues may be worked out with Bowe and the franchise tag gives them another year to do that.

All of that said, it may make more sense to front-load the contracts for these two guys. A four-year deal for each of these guys would probably average about $8 million per year each. But, because the Chiefs are sitting on a cap mother lode, they may as well dump a lot of that salary in bonuses this year – paying each of them, say, $15 million and leaving them with a base salary of $6 million or lower for the next three years. This gives the Chiefs a lot of extra flexibility moving forward.

Plan B:

I mean, I guess you go after Stanford Routt and Vincent Jackson if you for some reason can’t lock up Carr and Bowe. But, while Jackson has a bit more downfield speed than Bowe, I think the two of them are at best equal to Bowe and Carr overall. Routt got tons of penalties for Oakland last year, and Jackson has more attitude issues than Dwayne.

2.) New Orleans G Carl Nicks

Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Paddy pointed to Nicks two weeks before the Super Bowl, and he is still very right. He will be pricey, but very rarely do the best in the biz come available at their position while still young. Nicks is 26, and considered by many to be the best guard in the NFL. If we’re going to shell out this season, this is some conspicuous spending I can get behind. Although the Chiefs were decent in the interior of their O-line last year, their overall depth is dreadful. Snagging Nicks gives the Chiefs a solid rotation of Wiegmann/Hudson at center and Lilja/Asamoah at the other guard position.

Plan B:

Stanford guard David DeCastro is frequently mocked to the Chiefs in the 2012 draft. KC seems to be in the sweet spot for picking him up – 11/12 is typically a bit early to draft and interior lineman, but DeCastro is an atypical talent. Furthermore, as Ladner pointed out last week, guard is about the safest position you can pick at the top of the draft. Ravens G Ben Grubbs would also be a decent pickup, he’s 28, but has had a lot of injury problems.

3.) Texans C Chris Myers*

*If Wiegmann retires.

Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Just like Nicks, taking on Myers would add talent to the middle of the line, and would also deepen the Chiefs overall depth in the trenches. The Texans had the best O-line in the NFL, and it was anchored by Myers, who may have been the best center. In addition to being a force up the middle, Myers is a grizzled veteran at calling blocking assignments and keeping the Texans unit gelling. Hudson struggled somewhat in limited snaps at center, and I think I’d feel better about bringing in a serious starter at C if Wiegmann retires, considering how dependent the Chiefs are on the run game for offensive success. Myers is 31, so a two-year deal may be the kind of stopgap that will allow Hudson to transition well into the role. With both Myers and Nicks tearing up the middle, the Chiefs could have a historic running game.

Plan B:

I don’t think this is a huge area of need if Wiegmann sticks it out for another year. I still think the Chiefs should spend a mid-round pick on an interior lineman, just because that’s the kind of position you can never be overloaded in. Hudson would likely perform average or better if thrown into the fire this year.

4.) Dolphins NT Paul Soliai

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Soliai is one of the few true NT’s in the NFL. While he doesn’t put up mean stats, he holds down the middle of the line like a trooper. Miami franchised him last year, and with good reason – they recognize that their 3-4 scheme depends on him. But, because the Dolphins would have to pay him more than $15 million to franchise him this year and Soliai appears determined to test the market, the Chiefs should be able to swoop down and snatch him. Last year, AA writers were pounding the table for Aubrayo Franklin, but he was picked up by the Saints and underwhelmed. I do not thing the same will be the case for Soliai. The Dolphins run a similar defense to the Chiefs and he would fit right in.

Plan B:

While older than Soliai, Simone Pouha, at 33, would be both a stopgap and an upgrade over Kelly Gregg. He’s had more than 50 tackles each of the last two years for the Jets at nose tackle, which is impressive.

5.) Patriots RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

I touched on this last week, and I think this signing is both wise and likely. While he hasn’t shown himself to be effective as an every-down back – not that the Patriots run it much anyway – he could be a great 3^rd-down back for the Chiefs. Regardless of what the Chiefs do with the RB position in the draft, if they enter the season with Jamaal Charles, the Law Firm, and Jackie Battle, it’ll easily the best and most varied running-back situation they’ve had in at least five years. Light, medium and heavy.

Plan B: Ray Rice is going to get franchised and Marshawn Lynch inspires little excitement as a complimentary piece to Charles. This is an overall weak RB free agent class, which brings us to the draft …

Where this would put us:

If Pioli/Hunt were to take my advice for the first time in the history of time, we would be solid in both the defensive and offensive backfields and have possibly the best interior O-line in the NFL. We would also have the closest thing to a complete defensive line KC has had in a decade or more. The only real hole on the roster would be right tackle.

However, most importantly, making these moves would put the Chiefs in the best possible position to get value in the draft. There is a glut of quality options at right tackle in the first three rounds. It is likely that Jonathan Martin will fall to the Chiefs, an athletic guy that could play either tackle position. But, knowing that they will have the opportunity to pick other good values at their only real need position, the Chiefs could instead use that first pick as a luxury – snagging the best talent on the board.

With a potential trading frenzy over QBs above them and a draft-philosophy bias against running backs, Trent Richardson could very well fall to the Chiefs. Not a need, but can you imagine how well KC would be set up with a RB stable of Charles, Richardson and the Law Firm? The Chiefs could also take the opportunity to go after whatever top-rated QB falls out of the top 10. Regardless of what you think of Cassel, I definitely would feel better about the quality of the position moving forward if he were competing against Ryan Tannehill in the next training camp. But, frankly, the possibilities are endless and I think Pioli should be interested in getting the best talent available.

He drafted for need by picking Tyson Jackson in 2009. He learned his lesson by taking the best player on the board with Eric Berry in 2010. Hopefully, the Chiefs both keep that experience in mind and set themselves up to do it right this year.

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