Last Friday, a shot rang out through Chiefs nation – one that meant hope, credibility and a lot of change.

By firing GM Scott Pioli and bringing in head coach Andy Reid, Clark Hunt has set the franchise on an entirely new path.

Firstly, he has done away with the team’s traditional hierarchical structure that seats a powerful general manager above the coaching staff. Make no mistake, going forward, for better or worse, Reid is going to be calling the shots during the offseason, the draft, et cetera.

Four years ago, the Chiefs hired a highly reputed front office wiz from the New England Patriots. Although everyone knows that Bill Belichick is the mastermind behind New England’s success, this guy was a vital cog in his machine and it was believed that the numbers guy could be brought in to reproduce it. That failed, and Hunt learned his lesson. This time around, by hiring Andy Reid, he didn’t get Pioli, he got Belichick.

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Having secured a lucrative contract that gives him wide-sweeping authority, make no mistake, Reid is going to make a lot of changes. He comes with a distinct philosophy, working style and mold for a successful team.

Reid is definitely going to make his imprint on this team during this offseason, which means several players are going to get their walking papers while others are going to see their role increase. We still don’t know exactly who Reid will take on with his staff or whether or not he will be keeping the Chiefs’ 3-4 defense, but judging by the way he built the Eagles, I think we can say which players should be happy and which should be nervous.

Offense

Extremely Happy:

WR’s Steve Breaston, Dexter McCluster and Devon Wylie

Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Reid loves small receivers that are great route-runners. McCluster has come on has an effective slot guy and I have a feeling that Reid will find something to do with Breaston who was criminally underused this season. Meanwhile, Wylie showed up late as another developing tool in the Chiefs passing game.

Happy:

RB Jamaal Charles, LT Brandon Albert

It’s been widely said that Reid doesn’t like to run the ball, but that’s not really true. The Eagles were 19^th in rushing attempts per game this year, 12^th last year and 15^th in 2010. In other words, they’re pretty much in the middle of the pack. Charles will still be getting fewer touches on runs out of the backfield (largely because the Chiefs have been one of the most run-happy teams in the league), but he will make up for that with more screens and quick passes thrown his way per game. Charles is a good route runner and could easily become a faster version of Brian Westbrook.

Reid also highly values the offensive line and doesn’t mind spending big to keep it shored up. This is good news for Albert, whose contract is up.

Extremely Worried:

RB Peyton Hillis and WR’s Jonathan Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe

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Hillis is gone. His fantastic game against the Colts notwithstanding, Hillis was a disappointment, only rushing for 309 yards this season for a 3.6-yard average. Like Hillis, Baldwin and Bowe also don’t really fit Reid’s scheme. Bowe is a great outside, move-the-chains threat, but Reid doesn’t typically utilize such receivers. He prefers getting the ball into the hands of smaller, more dynamic players in the middle that have the chance to make big plays. Baldwin has done next to nothing in the league and doesn’t fit this new mold. Bowe will probably be allowed to walk this offseason in favor of a free agent like Mike Wallace. Baldwin will probably get his last chance to prove his worth in the 2013 preseason.

Defense

Extremely Happy:

S Eric Berry

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Reid made great use of safety Brian Dawkins early in his time in Philadelphia as a jack-of-all-trades blitzer, run stuffer and cover guy. Berry has the physical tools to do the same, and I can’t wait to see the creative ways Reid decides to use him.

Happy:

OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston

Although nothing is certain at this point, it is likely that Reid will want to move back to a 4-3 defense and use both Hali and Houston as edge rushers on the line. Hali is originally a defensive end and will likely be happy to return. Although Houston has done admirably in picking up coverage skills, I personally think it is a waste to make him drop back on passing downs when he truly excels at getting after the quarterback. In a Reid defense, he likely to be able focus on doing just that.

Worried:

The rest of the front seven

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Especially if the team abandons the 3-4, DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are likely toast. Both are overpaid and underwhelming and I don’t see Reid wanting to keep reinvesting in those projects. Poe will likely stay a bit longer because he is still developing and would likely be effective in a 4-3 as well.

Unfortunately for the guys behind them, Reid has never heavily prized the linebacker position. In his years in Philly, he always invested high picks and free agent signings in defensive linemen and DBs while allowing the linebacking corps to be filled by a revolving door of journeymen.

Although we know Derrick Johnson can excel in the role of a 4-3 middle linebacker, it is still unclear whether Reid will want to pay him big money to continue to do so when his contract is up.

This list will change as we find out more about what Reid plans to do with this team, and I’ll try to keep you all updated as we all find out more.

Can the Chiefs score points?

Of all their successes over the last three years, the one thing the Chiefs have never been is a scoring machine. Last year, the injury-riddled Chiefs were 31^st in the league for scoring with a miserable 13.2 points per game, which was actually a worse performance than the team’s 4-12 season in 2009. Believe it or not, the Chiefs’ total point differential in that failed campaign was only slightly worse than last season at -130 vs. -126.

Even when the Chiefs were healthy and on fire in 2010 they weren’t exactly blowing teams away. Our point differential was just +40, meaning we were scoring just 2.5 more points per game than our collective opponents. It is no secret that this needs to change.

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Overall, the Chiefs are built to control the ball and play stout defense. But, again, we haven’t done the best job of that: last year the Chiefs averaged 310.9 yards per game while allowing 333.3. During the triumphant 2010 season, this indicator wasn’t radically different at 349.7 to 330.2 – gaining 20 more yards than your opponent does not a domination make.

Still, the Chiefs have found success in the recipe of playing everyone close, controlling the ball and wearing down opposing defenses to eventual 4^th-quarter victories. In short, get a little bit ahead and hold on for dear life. But, the other issue with the Chiefs possession-based style is that the Chiefs absolutely must score at the end of their long drives. This recipe can work if the Chiefs are able to play offense efficiently enough to rack up points while chewing up clock and have a defense that is consistent enough to thwart opposing offenses in doing the same. As long as the Chiefs are leaving points on the field with stalled drives, red zone inefficiency and turnovers, the team has to rely on the opponent being just as ineffective.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Last year, the Chiefs were dead last in red zone efficiency at 33.33 percent. Given that statistic and the fact that the Chiefs had a -126 point differential, it is truly miraculous that this team won 7 games.

The good news is that the Chiefs are now finally built to be the kind of team that they’ve been trying to be. Jamaal Charles is clearly the most dynamic player on offense, but he’s a boom-and-bust runner. He’ll gain 25, then get stuffed in the backfield. Then he’ll get you 6 yards only to get stuck for two consecutive 1.5-yard gains. He’ll give you magic, but he won’t always keep the ball moving. That’s why Peyton Hillis is such an important addition. His power allows him to be a much more consistent 1^st-down runner. The development of Dexter McCluster as a reliable slot receiver provides another move-the-chains weapon to keep the ball in Kansas City hands.

Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

But, they still need to put it in the end zone.

In the preseason, the Chiefs looked good running the ball and have been overall effective moving down field. But, they still haven’t shown the ability to keep up in scoring. And, when experimenting with throwing the ball heavily against the Seahawks, they showed that they will have a hard time catching up in games if they get behind by more than one touchdown.

Therefore, Atlanta is going to be the perfect test for whether the Chiefs can put points on the board. Not only do the Falcons have two good receivers that are constant downfield threats, but the Chiefs are likely to be without their pass defense players. It’s looking like CB Brandon Flowers and S Kendrick Lewis will be out with injuries and Tamba Hali will be serving his one-game suspension.

Honestly, I think the Chiefs should hold out Lewis and Flowers – it is absolutely not worth it for them to aggravate their injuries to a point where they could potentially be lost for extended time. But, without them, the onus is going to be on the offense to keep up with Atlanta’s deadly air attack.

This matchup will tell us a lot about the 2012 Chiefs. It’s a test.

Let the games begin.

Note: For Internal Use Only. Coaches, players and fans of the Raiders, Chargers and Broncos are not authorized to read this post.

It’s that time of the year. The Draft and free agency have passed and we all feel like we have the best team in the league.  In fact, everyone feels like they have the best team in the league. The only problem is that 31 of them are wrong and we’re probably one of them.

Thus, it has come time for me to assume the role I have carved out on this site and that is being the Debbie Downer. We still have holes and weaknesses. Talented coordinators are going to be able to target those weaknesses and we need to be thinking about how to mask them.

If I am an opposing coach, this is how I plan my game:

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

1.) Defend RB Jamaal Charles. How? By keeping him out of the end zone. Provided he is back to his old self, he’s almost certainly going to rack up 100+ yards on us. Let him; just don’t let the safeties get beat. Pay the mascot another bounty for taking him out (Just kidding, they’ll be watching this time).

2.) Throw deep. Now, this may seem like a strange prescription given that the Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in the league. However, it makes sense for several reasons.

First off, S Eric Berry and CB Brandon Flowers are scary, scary men when healthy, but there are other bits of the pass defense that are vulnerable. S Kendrick Lewis is a smart ball hawk, but he doesn’t have the wheels to keep up with speedy receivers streaking downfield. Routt is known to willingly take a holding or interference call if he feels like he is losing the wideout, rather than risk give up a touchdown. Send our best track star on a sprint down field a few times per game just to see what happens. Depending on the coverage, we can fake Berry off to the other side, we may get lucky with a blitzing DB, or our guy might just be able to outrun his man. There’s also a good chance we can scare Routt into eating an erroneous penalty. We’ll also probably get favorable matchups with our tight ends against their linebackers and safeties.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Secondly, as we saw last year, all of the Chiefs’ explosive plays comes from two guys –Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe. There is simply no one else on the team who generates big plays with any consistency. While each of those two is guaranteed to have a couple of good-gainers on us, limiting their ability to score will keep the Chiefs off the board. KC was 31^st in scoring last year and 14^th in the league in 2010 when they had all their stars healthy. As long as the game stays close, we will be able to make big plays on them, and it’s likely they won’t be able to keep up. They counted on the ability to run at will and chew clock in 2010. If we can get a couple of quick, easy touchdowns on them, they won’t be able to use that to their advantage.

3.) Stand tall on first and third down. Jamaal Charles is at his best on first down –108 of his 230 carries (47 percent) were on first for 7.2 yards-per-carry (YPC) in 2010. But, he only averaged 5.2 YPC up the middle. Let him have it. On early downs, keep our backers and ends out in contain on the edges. If we can do that, we can force them into lots of third-down situations. In 2010, the Chiefs were 20^th in the league in converting on third down, 27^th in 2011. Watch out for RB Peyton Hillis on third.

4.) Play smart, the Chiefs likely won’t. In 2010, KC was the 12^th most penalized team in the league. In 2011, they were 9^th, and they just added a couple of Raiders. They are a very young team, and when they are frustrated, they will gift you yards. Let’s not be so generous.

5.) Win in the beginning. Both Hillis and Charles put up their best numbers in the first quarter. As long as they are just tallying up yardage while we are tallying up points with a few big plays, we can live with that. Matt Cassel had a passer rating of 52.3 in the fourth quarter of games that were decided by seven points or less. He’s not much better in overtime. If we are still leading going into the fourth, we have to feel good about our chances of winning.

So, Addicts, that’s how opposing teams will be looking at us. What do we do to counter?

(Hindsight is … Complicated Part II, for Part I, click here)

To me, among the most intriguing Chiefs picks in the draft were WR Devon Wylie (4^th round) and RB Cyrus Gray (6^th). Wylie is a short wideout with ridiculous speed who would have gone earlier in the draft if it weren’t for injury concerns. Gray is a small and speedy back with breakaway speed. Both were also great special teamers in college. Together, they basically make a better version of Dexter McCluster.

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As I have been going back and re-watching all of the games from the 2011 season, one theme has consistently arisen – there are lot of Chiefs players that I am very jaded about. One of those is Dexter McCluster.

Drafted initially be to a Wes Welker type receiver, he spent a lot more time last season in the role of a running back as a complimentary Darren Sproles type. So far, he has lived up to neither comparison, but he might some day and therein lies the dilemma.

Last year, when Jamaal Charles went down, so did our offense. Having one of the most dynamic players in the league touching the ball 20 times a game had allowed the Chiefs to hide a lot of weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball. With Charles gone, Haley struggled to throw together something resembling an offense with depth players off the trash heap. Even during his rookie season, clouded by the excitement of the Chiefs’ first winning season in ages was the fact that McCluster was all but a bust as a playmaker. He had just 21 receptions and 18 carries with his only memorable play being a touchdown on a screen pass against San Francisco.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

At the end of the 2010 season, Haley seemed to be giving up on the idea of McCluster as a slot receiver and said he would be giving him more snaps at running back. I don’t think they planned on him having 114 carries in 2011, but that’s how it shook out. What’s interesting about going back to the numbers is that they conflict wildly with my own perceptions and affections. I’ve always liked McCluster as a seemingly hard-working guy who has the kind of grit you wouldn’t expect from a 170-lb munchkin.

Still, the numbers don’t lie. McCluster just doesn’t make big plays, which is his only purpose. RB Jackie Battle was a guy who was able to get what was already there with the ability to break a tackle or two. McCluster basically gets what’s there plus 3 yards due to his speed, but he won’t be breaking any tackles and he’ll get stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage for a few serious losses a game. Even Battle beat him as the KC running back with the biggest ground gain of the 2011 season with a 34-yarder against Denver.

All of this brings us back to the Chiefs’ eternal offensive problem since the Trent Green days. We move the ball, but we don’t make big plays and we can’t score for the life of us. McCluster is not currently helping to alleviate this problem. He’s not a great receiver, not a great running back, useless in pass protection, and only had one return for a touchdown in two seasons. So where does he fit?

Despite the fact that the Peyton Hillis signing gave the Chiefs’ roster three running backs (not counting Shaun Draughn), I still thought they needed at least one more body. Charles is still rehabbing his ACL, Hillis is coming off of schizophrenic year with injuries and odd behavior, and McCluster, as we have established, is nothing special and can’t currently be trusted to shoulder a serious portion of the carries.

What I expected they would do is go after a power back more in the mold of Thomas Jones when he had speed. Instead they grabbed Gray, a guy known for his quickness, but who can handle more contact than McCluster can. They also picked up Wylie, a dude who ran 4.25 40 in 2009 before breaking his foot, and projects well as a slot receiver with some downfield ability. If both of these guys pan out, McCluster will be unnecessary.

But that’s assuming that McCluster will not continue to develop. In Scouts Inc.’s blurb on him, the only bad thing they pointed out in his game is: “He has good ball skills but will struggle when competing for the ball in a crowd. He needs a lot of work on his route running and setting defenders up and will settle into crowded zones at times rather than find a window for the quarterback to throw though.”

Meaning, he can still be taught.

Sproles, who was in many ways a trailblazer for sparkplugs like McCluster, only had 148 touches in his first three years with San Diego. McCluster had 160 in 2011. Sproles only really came on in his 4^th season, and truly exploded for the Saints last year with 1,313 total yards from scrimmage split almost perfectly evenly between runs and passes. The difference is that he was in the high-octane Saints offense getting the ball from Drew Brees.

Could McCluster eventually develop into Sproles? It’s possible, but very hard to tell. Although they are both short, Sproles is two inches shorter and 20 lbs heavier than McCluster, giving him a bit more beef to sustain hits and an even smaller profile to grab or shut down by filling the gaps in front of him. Also, being so small, you have to be an excellent route-runner because otherwise it’s just too easy for defenders to box you out, and if you’re not in the exact right spot, it’s hard for the quarterback to get the ball to you. Sproles has gradually become an excellent route runner; McCluster clearly still has a lot of work to do.

Getting the most out of these little guys also depends heavily on the person designing the scheme. All indications are that McCluster was a Pioli pick – he comes from the New England mindset of getting versatile gadget players, Haley loves big physical receivers. Because of that, I think there is reason for optimism now that Brian Daboll has taken over the offense.

Although it took him too long to install with the lockout, Miami was humming once they understood his offense last year. Just watching them demolish the Chiefs at Arrowhead again was enough to convince me this guy knows how to draw up plays.  The color commentators couldn’t stop talking about one play that led to their tight end burning Derrick Johnson for a touchdown.

Often times, these sort of unique players need to find the right pairing with a coach who can figure out how to maximize them. RB Danny Woodhead got almost 1,000 yards for New England in 2010 after being cut by the Jets. Sproles was one of the best free agent signings of 2011, leaving Chargers for the Saints. I worry that if McCluster doesn’t pan out for the Chiefs, we will soon be seeing him in highlight reels wearing a different color.

What do you think addicts? Is it time to bring the McCluster experiment to an end, or is he one more offseason away from being the dynamic weapon we’ve been waiting for?

As the Chiefs begin their head coach search, most analysts seem to point to interim head coach Romeo Crennel as the most likely candidate to get the job. Crennel has obviously been great for this team as a defensive coordinator and the team played well under him in the last three games of the season, ending 2-1 including a win against Green Bay and a razor-thin overtime loss to Oakland.

Still, I have my qualms with him.

I think Chiefs fans need to take a hard look at the entirety of this season and what Crennel can take credit for and what he can’t. There was also a lot I saw in the games Crennel led that had me pulling my hair out – tendencies I think could spell death for the Chiefs in 2012 if Crennel remains in charge of the game plans.

My problems with Romeo after the jump. (more…)

Yesterday I was talking to a fellow Chiefs fan who asked me whether or not our Kansas City Chiefs had the best offense in the AFC West.  We both quickly came to the same conclusion: yes. 

Looking at the other teams in the AFC West it is clear that the Chiefs offense is more “well rounded” than the other teams for the following reasons:

First, it is absolutely undeniable that we have the best running back and running game in the AFC West.  Both the Chargers and the Broncos are reportedly having difficulty with their recent number one picks: Ryan Matthews, and Knowshown Moreno.  While the Raiders certainly have the potential to be great at RB, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush have battled injuries and yet to put up consistently good numbers.  The Raiders clearly have the second best running game in the AFC West.

More after the jump… (more…)

As we start to take a step back from the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs season and look forward to what needs to be done for next season I thought it might be worth while to dig into the numbers a little to see just where the offense and defense are. This week I’ll look at the offense and then next week it will be the defense’s turn. Let me preface by saying that I’m a firm believer that numbers don’t tell the entire story. However, they do give you a good “big picture” outlook.

First the obvious numbers: Kansas City’s offense finished the season ranked #12 in yards at 349.7 per game and #14 in points at 22.9 per game. Those are both nice improvements over 2009 when they finished #25 in yards with 303.2 per game and #23 in points with 18.4 per game.

So the question then becomes how much of this improvement is due to the team being better and how much is due to the much talked about “easy schedule”?

After the break I’ll take a look inside the numbers and see how the Chiefs did against their opponents this year compared to other teams in the league.

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There is only one game that matters remaining in the 2010 NFL season, and the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t in it.  Instead, we will see the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers duke it out in Dallas at the Super Bowl.  Instead of pouting about how the Chiefs didn’t make it to the big game, we should take the opportunity to get a good look at why the Packers and Steelers made.  Those teams have demonstrated how to get to a Super Bowl.  We need to see what we can learn from them so that in the coming years, we can there as well.

Many different kinds of teams can get to the Super Bowl.  Just look at the difference between the teams that went last year compared to the teams that made it this year.  However, there are similarities between the Packers and the Steelers that I will highlight so that we can determine where the Chiefs fell short this year.
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Source: Yardbarker

The Kansas City Chiefs play their final game of the preseason tonight, and although they may have only found one win — I’m predicting they beat the Packers — they did discover a few things about their players, and possibly their football team as a whole. The front office probably won’t be forthcoming with these findings, so that leaves the door open for us fans to speculate. Although the preseason may not give us much indication of what we can expect from the 2010 Chiefs, it’s all we have to go on for now. Based on what we’ve seen in the first three exhibition games, below are five predictions from the offensive side of the ball. Look for five more from the defensive side next week.

1. The Chiefs will be one of the best rushing teams in the NFL.

The Chiefs currently rank second in the league for preseason rushing yards per game. Todd Haley said they were going to run the ball, and it looks like he meant business. Jamaal Charles didn’t gain all the yards, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be the featured back. Haley knows this year–as he did last year–that Charles is the most exciting running back in KC since Joe Delaney. Haley was obligated in the first half of 2009 to showcase Larry Johnson in an attempt to get some kind of pick for him. Although it didn’t work, he really didn’t need to waste the precious carries of a premier running back during the first year of a reconstruction era. The same reasoning was used this preseason while restricting Charles’ snaps. Every team does this with their elite talent during these “practice games”. Although we don’t know yet how many carries Charles will get this year with Charlie Weis calling the plays, if Charles doesn’t lead the league in rushing, he will lead the league in average. He’s that good! (There’s a bonus prediction at no extra charge!)

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