Apr 25, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Eric Fisher (Central Michigan) is introduced as the number one overall pick to the Kansas City Chiefs during the 2013 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL Draft is one of the greatest events for any football fanatic. It is a great event to prove you’re a better General Manager than the one employed by your favorite team. It’s easy to yell at your television set about whom they just took or why they didn’t grab your guy. Soren Petro, host of the Program on Sports Radio 810 WHB, this week talked about an exercise he does every draft. He writes down whom he would have taken with each selection. No trades, just in the given draft order and tracks them for progress  It gave me the idea for my column this week to do the same. If not him, then who? Before I tackled this task, I thought that it would be pretty simple since I feel I have a pretty good grasp on the football world. Wait, one-minute football friends: it’s not as easy as it may seem. All us Arm-Chair GM’s may want to try this exercise before we crown ourselves the next GM in waiting. Take a look at mine and let the debate begin Addicts!

1^st Round

1^st Pick – Eric Fisher – T – Central Michigan

Opinion – I really couldn’t argue with the Fisher pick. I was originally all in for Luke Joeckel but understand the potential in Fisher. I personally would have taken Joeckel because of his college competition (apparently the SEC is pretty good, haven’t heard much about them) and his being seen as a more proven commodity. That being said, I really like the Fisher pick and don’t think either one of these guys would have been a bad choice. The ceiling on Fisher is supposed to be higher where as Joeckel is more ready at the moment. After listening to Fisher talk after the draft I did gain a lot of respect and perspective on the man and think he will fit in exceptionally well in KC.

3^rd Round 

63^rd Pick – Travis Kelce – TE – Cincinnati

Opinion – I was pretty surprised we drafted a tight end, considering we have Tony Moeaki already and just signed Anthony Fasano. The scouting report on Kelce is intriguing.  The NFL.com profile compares him to Rob Gronkowski. That was not a typo: Kelce was compared to the Gronk.  He has had off-field problems, but has been a solid run blocker who became a bigger receiving weapon this past year. This gives us three legit tight ends. This also says to me that the new regime is not too sold on Moeaki.  I would have taken Matt Barkley, quarterback from USC who fell to the Philadelphia Eagles in the early 4^th round. I thought having Barkley sit behind Alex Smith and Chase Daniels for a few years learning from Reid and company could really be a phenomenal grab in the third round. (Mind you, this is before we knew we could sign Tyler Bray undrafted, which makes me feel better now.) I do think the Kelce pick could be a great pick up. Who knows, we may see the multiple tight end sets in KC this next season.

96^th Pick – Knile Davis – RB – Arkansas

Opinion – I wasn’t sold on the Knile Davis pick just because of his injury history, losing an entire collegian season while at Arkansas. Once seen as a promising runner, Davis has battled injuries in every season for the Razorbacks. He also has had a history of bad ball security. He did have one of the better combine workouts, which was probably the key to the Chiefs taking him here. If running back was the key need here and injuries didn’t scare you away, I would have went with Marcus Lattimore from South Carolina who later went to the Niners in the 4^th round. Lattimore compares to Arian Foster, a very balanced back. The key issue with Lattimore is his knee injuries. The other option I was strongly pushing was taking WR Chris Harper from Kansas State with this pick. Harper was taken in the 4^th round at 123^rd by the Seattle Seahawks. I think the fit of Harper to play the 3^rd or 4^th receiver spot would have been great for the Chiefs’ offense.  Harper is a great position receiver, something that has never really materialized from Jonathan Baldwin. He would have created a perfect balance between Dwayne Bowe and newly acquired burner Donnie Avery.

4^th Round 

99^th Pick – Nico Johnson – LB – Alabama

Opinion – I love the pick of Nico Johnson in this round. The Chiefs needed to find a linebacker ready to step in and play inside LB alongside Derrick Johnson. NJ (you know he’ll be called that) will complement DJ perfectly in the 3-4 scheme. Nico is known as a strong run defender and assignment-sure backer per NFL.com’s scouting report. This allows DJ to continue to be the playmaker he has grown into the past few seasons. Johnson & Johnson (that one will also be used) should thrive.

5^th Round

134^th Pick – Sanders Commings – CB – Georgia 

Opinion – I like the pick of Commings the more and more I look into it. His biggest red flag is an off-the-field incident he had at the beginning of 2012. I think this may have dropped him a few rounds. The scouting report on Commings says he doesn’t have ideal footwork, but his size and ability are great. He may be able to work on this, making him a steal in the fifth round. Hopefully his off-the-field problems are behind him as well. One player I would have considered as well here is Iowa State linebacker A.J. Klein. who went 14 picks later to the Carolina Panthers. I loved Klein in college, where he was a solid leader and tackle machine.  He could have added great depth to the positive and be a monster on special teams. His knock was his speed, but his instincts should help that deficiency.

6^th Round 

170^th Pick – Eric Kush – C – California (PA)

Opinion – The Chiefs needed an insurance plan if Rodney Hudson isn’t completely healed from last season’s leg injury. They got one in small school stud Eric Kush. Even if Hudson is healthy, they needed depth at the position  I really like the Kush pick. Kush has great foot speed and excellent reaching ability for a center. Lance Zierlein from thesidelineview.com had him rated as the 3^rd best center in the draft and projected him in the 4^th round. Great value at the 6^th round and really wouldn’t change anything about this pick as well.

204^th Pick – Braden Wilson – FB – Kansas State

Opinion – Andy Reid was quoted saying he thought Wilson was the best blocking fullback in this draft. He justified that comment by making Wilson his second sixth round pick this draft. All Wilson did was block for big time runners while at Kansas State. First, he blocked for now-Miami Dolphins back Daniel Thomas. Then he blocked for dual-threat Heisman Trophy finalist Collin Klein and his teammate John Hubert. Some thought Wilson’s ability could see him play some tight end or H-back in the NFL, but I think he will be used primary as a blocking back for Jamaal Charles. I really like this pick (FYI I am biased though because I am a K-State fan) and think Reid will utilize his skills well.

7^th Round

207^th Pick – Mike Catapano – DE – Princeton

Opinion – The Chiefs took Catapano, the 2012 Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year with their final pick in the draft. From what I hear, Catapano may play outside linebacker to back up Tamba Hali and has a similar motor. I would have really liked to take a chance on area guy David Bass from Missouri Western State, whom the Oakland Raiders grabbed later in the round. Everything I have heard about Bass was the man was a beast while in St. Joe.  We will have to wait to see if Catapano can make me forget Bass is now a Raider.

In a strange way, this past draft – one of the most boring in recent memory – was the most interesting.

Four days ago, the new tandem of Head Coach Andy Reid and General Manager John Dorsey practically had a tabula rasa in the eyes of Chiefs fans. We could speculate on how they would change the franchise based on past decisions on different clubs. But, even there, they were not the sole decision-makers. This offseason is the first real peephole into how they will run this team for however long they are allowed to do so.

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The main theme? When Dorsey says “best player available” he means best player available, regardless of position or the grades of other teams. The first pick that illustrated this was the first pick of the 2013 Draft.

We may never know how the trade negotiations between Dorsey and Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland went (although I’d like to think it was similar in tenor to the way that the Amateur Hour Podcast role-played it out), but we know those talks did not end in a trade of LT Brandon Albert to Miami. For the past three months, the greatest certainty in our predictions of what the Chiefs would do at 1^st overall hinged on Albert’s fate.

Our good-but-not-great tackle was not traded by the time the Chiefs were required to turn in their card and select their first player. Nonetheless, the team picked another left tackle in Eric Fisher. Value is value in Dorsey’s eyes, and even without having moved the team’s current LT, he wanted to make the most of that pick and grabbed the guy who he felt was the best prospect in this Draft.

Then, after a very long wait for those who were watching the whole proceedings unfold, the Chiefs selected a tight end. This, also, was clearly not a need-driven pick. While he may not have sparkled quite as much since his magical 2010 season, TE Tony Moeaki, who was on IR throughout 2011, still has the potential to be a productive two-way TE in this league. Similarly, the new regime quickly signed TE Anthony Fasano in free agency who is similarly one of the best block-and-catch tight ends.

So, why pick TE Travis Kelce, who fits the same mold, at the top of the 3^rd round? Well, obviously, Dorsey would not have used his second pick in the Draft on him unless he thought Kelce could be as good or better than what we already have on the team. The fact is that – paired with decent quarterbacks or no – Moeaki has produced very little outside of that 2010 season. More to the point, Dorsey is looking for value wherever he finds it. Kelce was high on his board and still available, so he took him, no questions asked.

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

What followed was probably the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiefs 2013 draft: RB Knile Davis. In a draft that was thick with running backs in the mid rounds, Davis was expected by many to be an undrafted free agent. But, on the other hand, he fits Reid’s system perfectly. Line up the tape of Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and the former Razorback Davis and  you see plenty of similarities. Just like with McCoy, the commentating class are questioning Davis’ top end speed, and his ability to get it done with his small frame.

But, whether you like it or not, these are the kinds of guys that Coach Reid covets. He is looking for slightly undersized quick guys with vision to for the hole. McCoy has become a stud in this league and he was picked in the middle of the second round. Davis, who clocked in with a 4.37 40 time at the combine, got grabbed at the bottom of the 3^rd. I’m not saying that he will be as good as McCoy, but I don’t think this pick was as surprising as many made it out to be. He is consistent with the model of an Andy Reid running back, and he may have been the only pure Reid guy in this draft.

After picking three players that landed in currently crowded position groups, the new regime then ticked a need by selecting Alabama LB Nico Johnson at the top of the 4^th round. Initially, I wasn’t crazy about this pick. Basically all evaluations described him as a purely run-stuffing two-down linebacker who might be stout in the early downs but would be a liability in coverage. Immediately , this reminded me of the late Jovan Belcher, whose murderous departure from both life and team punctuated the Chiefs’ worst season in recent memory.

That tragic mess aside, we were already talking this time last year about the need to replace him or at least give him significant competition as we needed a guy able to chase down tight ends and wide receivers on 1^st and 2^nd down and he was particularly exposed in those situations. Nico Johnson doesn’t give us much more in that department.

However, we also have a new defensive coordinator and scheme. We are yet to see how DC Bob Sutton plans to use Nico and the rest of the defense, so it is possible that by getting the best “thumper” LB in the draft, the Chiefs put the last piece in place.

Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

In a similar vein, the choice of CB Sanders Commings in the 5^th round seemed strange, but after looking at his highlight tape, it became quickly clear that the Chiefs likely viewed him as more of a safety prospect than a CB that would add to our full stable of cornerbacks. Commings is a big, fast and physical guy who didn’t show the skills to be one of the top-rated cornerbacks, but he definitely has the talent to step in the place of the Chiefs’ oft-injured FS Kendrick Lewis.

Either way, I think there will now be some genuine competition in the defensive backfield and the same way that Reid says he likes to put his best five offensive linemen on the field, I think we will see the best five DB’s on the field in nickel situations, which could lead to some really interesting combinations.

Also, having five very good D-backs allows you to take your run-stuffing ILB off the field … a plan seems to be emerging here.

The last three picks in rounds 6 and 7 I believe have to be viewed as special teamers and practice squad guys until proven otherwise. Generally, the selection of a fullback screams “special teams stud” – KSU fans please let me know if I am wrong in this particular instance.

So, what do we take from this? Well, we had already gotten a hint of this from free agency. Dorsey does not want this team to be a leaky ship on paper. There will be no holes and any young prospect coming in will have to compete and will be chosen purely on their talent. They will not be drafted and expected to fill some void that the team left open like with WR Jon Baldwin. I don’t know if this strategy will work, but the man has credibility coming from the Green Bay Packers.

For four years we had all been adjusting to the Patriots Way, whatever the hell that meant, but now we are starting to get a glimpse of this new identity that Dorsey and Reid will be imprinting upon our Kansas City squad.

What do you think, Addicts? Tired of imported philosophies, or do you think this one will work?

We are now two days out from the Chiefs’ 1^st-round pick being announced at Radio City Music Hall.

In a normal year, there would be very little suspense at this point for us fans. We’d already be talking about the contract details of the team’s assumed new player and what will happen later in the draft. But, as we all know, this is a strange year and a strange draft class. And, the LT Brandon Albert ball is still in the air.

So, here are the probabilities for what I think is going to happen. Feel free to chime in with your own.

1.) Will Albert be traded before the Draft officially begins?

80% Yes, 20% No.

If I’m the Chiefs, I want to make sure this deal gets done before I send my envelope to the podium. The Dolphins seem dead-set on nailing an LT in this draft, but the 2^nd-rounder they would send to the Chiefs for the trade could also potentially be used by them to trade up into the top seven to pick one of the top LT prospects. They may even prefer this option because they’d have the guy under contract for four years, he’ll be cheaper and younger, and can grow with their new quarterback.

Still, given that the talks have gotten this deep, it looks like the Chiefs simply need to act on it – with compensation perhaps a bit lower than they expect. Trading Albert essentially locks the Chiefs into taking one of the two LT prospects Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher and it’s unlikely they will be able to sign Albert to a long-term deal and trade him for much value if they both keep him this year and draft his replacement. I think they have considerable incentives to seal the deal before lights hit the stage in New York.

2.) Who will the Chiefs pick?

50% Luke Joeckel, 30% Eric Fisher, 12% OLB Dion Jordan, 5% DT Shariff Floyd, 3% DT Star Lotulelei

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Again, the Albert trade looks like all but a done deal, but getting a game-changer like Jordan certainly has to give them pause. However, if Albert is traded (again, an 80% probability IMHO), then they’re taking Fisher or Joeckel. Other possibilities if he stays are Floyd and Lotulelei, which would add bulk and versatility to the D-line.

3.) When do the Chiefs pick their first ILB?

50% 3^rd round, 20% 4^th round, 15% 5th round, 10% 2nd round, 5% no ILB taken this year

Even though it is the most conspicuous hole on the roster, I think the sweet spot for drafting ILB’s this year is the 3^rd round and it is a deep draft at that position. I don’t think GM John Dorsey is the kind of guy to spring for need if we get a 2^nd rounder by trading Albert, or trading up into the 2^nd round for a guy unless Alec Ogletree or Manti Te’o fall far. On the other hand, the team doesn’t currently have a 2^nd rounder, but it does have two picks in the third. I think they’ll go for the value guy on their list in the mid-rounds. On the other hand, they brought in two journeymen ILB’s for offseason workouts and it’s not a premiere position. They may think that they can cover themselves with what they have and take value picks in other places.

4.) How many offensive skill players will the Chiefs draft?

50% three, 20% four, 20% two, 10% one

This is a bit of a wild guess, because everything we know about Dorsey tells us that he likes to draft purely for value. Still, the offense was the Achilles’ heel of this team for the last two seasons and the side of the football that requires the greatest improvement. But: the new regime has already taken the most important step forward in improving the quarterback position, We also locked up our #1 WR in Dwayne Bowe and signed a #2 in Donnie Avery. We’re told that HC Andy Reid likes WR Dexter McCluster in a slot role and WR Jon Baldwin is still developing… we hope. That doesn’t leave a lot of spots for draft picks unless you plan on cutting them or putting them on the practice squad when the season begins.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

At running back, we have Jamaal Charles, Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray. The latter two are pickups from the previous regime and I would be surprised if Dorsey didn’t pick up a developmental RB at some point in the draft. It would also stand to reason for them to grab a young QB and TE at some point, but I would be surprised if they take more than one of each.

5.) When, if ever will the Chiefs take a QB?

50% 5^th round or later, 30% not this year, 20% 3^rd or 4^th round

The behavior of both this regime and the other NFL front offices implies that the league generally views this as not being the year to pick up a quarterback. In a sense, the Chiefs have already used their 2^nd-round pick on QB Alex Smith and they signed his backup to a generous contract. I don’t expect them to draft anyone that will provide immediate competition to either of them. That said, if a guy like Matt Barkley falls into the 4^th, I’d be surprised if the Chiefs passed on him altogether.

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

So what do you say? How do you like my odds?

Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

With the draft less than a week away, rumors and anticipation are reaching an all-time high with who the Kansas City Chiefs will take with their 1^st round pick. Mind you, this may all become much clearer if/when the Chiefs trade LT Brandon Albert to the Miami Dolphins.

Since this will be new General Manager John Dorsey and Head Coach Andy Reid’s first draft with the Chiefs, I wanted to look into what the two’s prior drafting tendencies were.  For Reid, I looked back to the start of his career in Philadelphia, starting back to 1999.  For Dorsey, I looked into the Green Bay Packers’ drafts dating back to 2000, when he was Director of College Scouting until 2011, then becoming their Director of Football Operations for the 2012 season.

Here is all first round picks for the two.

Philadelphia Eagles 1^st round under Reid:

2012 – Fletcher Cox – DT – Mississippi State – 12^th pick

2011 – Danny Watkins – OL – Baylor – 23^rd pick

2010 – Brandon Graham – DE – Michigan – 13^th pick

2009 – Jeremy Maclin – WR – Missouri – 19^th pick

2008 – No first round pick

2007 – No first round pick

2006 – Brodrick Bunkley – DT – Florida State – 14^th pick

2005 – Mike Patterson – DT – USC – 31^st pick

2004 – Shawn Andrews – G – Arkansas – 16^th pick

2003 – Jerome McDougle – DE – Miami (FL) – 15^th pick

2002 – Lito Sheppard – DB – Florida – 26^th pick

2001 – Freddie Mitchell – WR – UCLA – 25^th pick

2000 – Corey Simon – DT – Florida State – 6^th pick

1999 – Donovan McNabb – QB – Syracuse – 2^nd pick

Green Bay Packers 1^st round under Dorsey:

2012 – Nick Perry – DE – USC – 28^th pick

2011 – Derek Sherrod – OL – Mississippi State – 32^nd pick

2010 – Bryan Bulaga – T – Iowa – 23^rd pick

2009 – B.J. Raji – DT – Boston College – 9^th pick

2009 – Clay Matthews – LB – USC – 26^th pick

2008 – No first round pick

2007 – Justin Harrell – DT – Tennessee – 16^th pick

2006 – A.J. Hawk – LB – Ohio State – 5^th pick

2005 – Aaron Rodgers – QB – California – 24^th pick

2004 – Ahmad Carroll – DB – Arkansas – 25^th pick

2003 – Nick Barnett – LB – Oregon State – 29^th pick

2002 – Javon Walker – WR – Florida State – 20^th pick

2001 – Jamal Reynolds – DE – Florida State – 10^th pick

2000 – Bubba Franks – TE – Miami (FL) – 14^th pick

Reid chose a defensive lineman six times during his tenure, Dorsey four.  Both men drafted this position more than any other.  I know this will make Chiefs fans cringe, since it seems every draft we take a D-Lineman.  Each only took two Quarterbacks in the first round.  But with good reasons: Reid secured his franchise QB early, grabbing Donovan McNabb in 1999.  Dorsey had Brett Favre in Green Bay and wisely helped to choose Aaron Rodgers during his draft day slide in 2005.  So, both positions were handled correctly.  (It would be great if that was ever said about the Chiefs quarterback position.)  Dorsey then helped to grab three linebackers during his tenure, all key contributors to the Packers defense.  Both also drafted OL two times each.

I think it’s easy to see that both men value both sides of the line of scrimmage, totaling 14 picks between the both over their tenures with their respective teams.  Buzz with the Chiefs dating back to forever has linked them with Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M or Eric Fisher of Central Michigan.  Seeing the history, some names that have been associated with the Chiefs also were DT Sharif Floyd of Florida, OLB Dion Jordan of Oregon, DE Ezekiel Ansah of BYU, and DT Star Lotulelei of Utah.  All of these make sense due to the Dorsey and Reid’s prior tendencies.  Mind you, I am not predicting a pick; I’m just showing the tendencies of the new regime.  I will leave the pick up to you now, Addicts!

For the last two years, in addition to writing a weekly column for Arrowhead Addict, I have also been representing the Nation as the official Kansas City Chiefs Superfan for the ESPN Football Today podcast. My role and importance as a Superfan fluctuated between the show’s changing lineup of hosts, but I always found it to be a fun exercise to get my two cents discussed in a wider forum.

Nonetheless, by far the most interesting and exciting event for us 32 Superfans was not getting our nonsense reactions to the latest games read throughout the season, but the three-round mock draft we took upon ourselves to act out every year.

This was not some ordinary mock draft. We, the designated Superfans, chosen through a lengthy application process, each year went through a live action draft complete with trades and arguments with our fictitious league commissioner. This year, I discarded my oversized suit jackets and thick-rimmed glasses for a sour expression and a pinnipedal cohort.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, I tried to think like the new regime and get the best I could out of our draft capital while following what seems to be their game plan. Here’s how it went down:

Pre-Draft

Like every Chiefs fan on the planet, I was looking to trade down. If I had the chance to stay within the top 5-6, I was pretty much willing to take any offer as there would definitely be a player there that I could take and I really wanted to recoup some mid-round picks. My second priority was – if I wasn’t going to land a major trade-down – to flip LT Brandon Albert for a 2^nd and change.

I got plenty of offers to move up to #1 overall, but they all came from teams too far away for my liking. Then, the Buccaneers made a crazy trade to move up from #13 to Jacksonville’s spot at #2 in exchange for their 2014 1^st and a late 2013 pick. The Jaguars must have been desperate to look to the future and gaining as much talent as they can next year because the trade was for far less than the draft value chart would call for. It also is a bit of an indictment of the talent at the top of this year’s class. Either way, I knew a mark when I saw one and told the Bucs Superfan/GM that I had been getting offers for the #1 spot and I wasn’t sure who those teams were going for, but if he wanted to get his guy – and clearly he did – all he had to do was part with a 3^rd-rounder to move all the way to the top.

In the end, that was too rich for his blood, but I took a 4^th off of him in the end and moved down to #2 overall. I then turned my attention to Albert. Like the real Chiefs, I was shopping him loud and hard. A couple of teams inquired, but I wanted to get a deal done before I had to actually make my pick. In the end, I took the Raven’s 2^nd-round (#62) and 5^th-round (#165) picks for our franchised left tackle. It would have been nice to get a higher 2^nd, but this still gave the team plenty of capital.

At this point, through compensatory picks and trades, my Chiefs team had regained a 2^nd and had two picks in rounds 3, 4, 5 and 6. But, that was to be short-lived.

We didn’t fully lay down the rules this year, and several of the teams complained that it made things too complicated to trade current players. I protested. The Philadelphia Superfan/GM then pointed out that Baltimore doesn’t have near enough space to pick up Albert’s contract in the first place and, while one could assume they would negotiate a cap-friendly long-term deal with him post-trade, that was just a bridge too far. The trade was voided.

In fact, only 12 teams have the cap space to be able to absorb Albert’s contract at the moment according to (the fabulous follow) the Film Room on Twitter. Those teams are: the Eagles, the Bills, the Pats, the Jags, the Cards, the Colts, the Jets, the Packers, the Bengals, the Browns, and the Bucs. All other teams would have to cut players to make space.

Unfortunately, the drama over the Albert trade erupted after I had already drafted his replacement – Luke Joeckel – 2^nd overall. Still, if the Chiefs can trade down and still get either Jockel or Fisher, they should count themselves lucky regardless of what happens with Albert.

Feb 23, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Texas A

Thus, the Nick-led Chiefs would forego any picks in the 2^nd round and it would next come around to us at pick #63.

Here’s how rounds 1 & 2 panned out overall.

Round 1

1 Tampa Bay via Kansas City via Jacksonville – CB Dee Milliner

2 Kansas City via Tampa Bay via Jacksonville – OT Luke Joeckel

3 Oakland – OT Eric Fisher

4 Philadelphia – OLB Dion Jordan

5 Detroit – DE Ezekiel Ansah

6 Cleveland – OLB Jarvis Jones

7 Arizona – OG Chance Warmack

8 San Diego via Buffalo – OT Lane Johnson

9 New York Jets – DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo

10 Tennessee – DT Shariff Floyd

11 Buffalo via San Diego – QB Geno Smith

12 Miami – CB Xavier Rhodes

13 Jacksonville via Tampa Bay – WR Tavon Austin

14 Carolina – DT Sheldon Richardson

15 Cincinnati via New Orleans – S Kenny Vaccaro

16 St. Louis – DT Star Lotulelei (steal of the day)

17 Pittsburg – OG John Cooper

18 Dallas – DT Sylvester Williams

19 New York Giants – ILB Alec Ogletree

20 Chicago – DE Damontre Moore

21 New Orleans via Cincinnati – DT Jesse Williams

22 St. Louis via Washington – WR Keenan Allen

23 San Francisco via Minnesota – DE Margus Hunt

24 Indianapolis – WR DeAndre Hopkins

25 Minnesota via Seattle – DE Datone Jones

26 Green Bay – S Matt Elam

27 Buffalo via Houston – WR Cordarrelle Patterson

28 Denver – DE Bjoern Werner (2^nd steal of the day)

29 New England – CD Desmond Trufant

30 Atlanta – CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson

31 San Francisco – DT John Jenkins

32 Baltimore – ILB Manti Te’o

Round 2

33 Jacksonville – OT D.J. Fluker

34 Arizona via Kansas City through San Francisco and Minnesota – QB E.J. Manuel

35 Philadelphia – S Eric Reid

36 Detroit – LB Arthur Brown

37 Cincinnati via Oakland – RB Eddy Lacy

38 Minnesota via Arizona – Quinton Patton

39 New York Jets – TE Tyler Eifert

40 Tennessee – DE Tank Carradine

41 Houston – WR Justin Hunter

42 Miami – OT Menelik Watson

43 Tampa Bay –  CB D.J. Hayden

44 Carolina – OT Reid Fragel

45 San Diego – OG Justin Pugh

46 St. Louis – S Jonathan Cyprien (STL was killin’ it)

47 Dallas – OG Larry Warford

48 Houston via Pittsburg – MLB Kevin Minter

49 New York Giants – CB Jonathan Banks

50 Baltimore via Chicago – S D.J. Swearinger

51 Washington – CB Jamar Taylor

52 Minnesota – WR Aaron Dobson

53 New Orleans via Cincinnati – OT Terron Armstead

54 Miami – DE Alex Okafor

55 Green Bay – DT Kawaan Short

56 Seattle – TE Zach Ertz

57 Pittsburg via Houston – DT John Hankins

58 Denver – WR Robert Woods

59 New England – WR Terrence Williams

60 Atlanta – DE Sam Montgomery

61 Tampa Bay via San Francisco – QB Ryan Nassib

62 Chicago via Baltimore – OT/OG Dallas Thomas

Sitting at the top of the 3^rd round, I had a lot of choices and some good players had fallen. Obviously, ILB is the Chiefs only glaring hole, but it is also a position where you can find some good players later in the draft. When it comes to premiere positions where you want to load up on talent, I think pass rusher is the next place the Chiefs should add a body. With Andy Studebaker (who was no world-beater) gone, can you name the team’s #3 outside linebacker? Didn’t think so.

Mike Mayock’s 2^nd-rated 3-4 outside linebacker is a guy probably few of you have heard of – not Barkevious Mingo, nope, he put Jamie Collins above him, right after Dion Jordon. Few know Jamie Collins because he was playing in the witness protection program down in Southern Mississippi, a team that didn’t win a single game in 2012. But, if you look at Collins’ tape, he definitely stands out as a high-motor, highly skilled guy with the speed to go all over the field as basically the only bright spot on that defense.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

We need a guy to rotate and develop with OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston because currently we have no depth and Tamba turns the big 30 this year. So, I grabbed Collins, who I think is a steal at that spot.

Later in the round, I was still able to get my ILB target. I know there are lots of Arthur Brown fans on this site, but Oregon’s Kiko Alonso looks to me like Manti Te’o, just underrated rather than overrated and with a real, live girlfriend.

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

This is how the 3^rd round went overall:

Round 3

63 Kansas City – OLB Jamie Collins

64 Jacksonville – CB Darius Slay

65 Detroit – OT Kyle Long

66 Oakland – CB David Amerson

67 Philadelphia – DE William Ghoston

68 Cleveland – S Shawn Williams

69 Arizona – C/G Travis Frederick

70 Tennessee – CB Jordan Poyer

71 Buffalo – TE Gavin Escobar

72 New York Jets – S Tony Jefferson

73 San Francisco via Tampa Bay – TE Travis Kelce

74 Minnesota via San Francisco – DT Brandon Williams

75 Cincinnati via New Orleans – OLB Sio Moore

76 Baltimore via San Diego – -OT Luke Marquardt

77 Miami – CB Robert Alford

78 St. Louis – RB Marcus Lattimore

79 Pittsburg – RB Giovanni Bernard

80 Chicago via Dallas – LB Khaseem Greene

81 New York Giants – OLB Corey Lemonier

82 Miami – C Barrett Jones

83 Minnesota – S Phillip Thomas

84 New Orleans via Cincinnati – OLB Trevardo Williams

85 New York Jets via Washington – RB Jonathan Franklin

86 Indianapolis – OL Brian Schwenke

87 Seattle – WR Da’Rick Rogers

88 Green Bay – RB Montee Ball

89 Houston – QB Tyler Wilson

90 Denver – RB Le’Veon Bell

91 New England – WR Ryan Swope

92 Atlanta – TE Vance McDonald

93 San Francisco – RB Mike Millislee

94 San Diego via Baltimore – CB Leon Sandcastle … err McFadden

95 Houston – WR Markus Wheaton

96 Kansas City – ILB Kiko Alonso

97 Tennessee – WR Steadman Bailey

To see the full spreadsheet, plus explanations for the picks from the other Superfans, click here.

So what do you think, Addicts? Did I do the right thing? Who would you have picked?

Thankfully, the NFL draft is almost upon us. After weeks of speculation, predictions, debates, and discussions fans will finally begin to get some answers when the Chiefs go on the clock with the first overall pick in just 10 days. I’m saving my final Chiefs draft pick predictions until next week, so it was a little bit of a struggle to come up with something new regarding the Chiefs draft that one of the other writers here at AA hasn’t already covered.

I originally thought I would write about whether or not the Chiefs would draft a QB in this draft. My question was, with both Alex Smith and Chase Daniel on the roster would the Chiefs feel obligated to fill other needs instead? I started to think about what round they might be willing to look at a QB and if there would be any QBs worth drafting left at that point. So I started looking at the specific spots the Chiefs are currently picking in the first 5 rounds (Picks: 1, 63, 96, 99, and 134). Then I started looking at a couple of prospect big boards to see what kind of QBs were likely to be available at those picks. I used both Drafttek’s and NFLDraftScout’s rankings to get a feel for where prospects were valued.

This got me thinking about other positions I thought the Chiefs might be interested in drafting. At that point I decided that instead of focusing solely on the QBs I would look at the Chiefs’ first five picks and see if I can find positions of need that may have draft value at the specific spots the Chiefs are drafting. John Dorsey is on record as saying he drafts for value over need. This means he won’t reach for a player that isn’t as good just to fill a need. Obviously the best scenario is when one of the best players available lines up with one of the team’s biggest needs. That’s what I set out to find, positions of need for KC that have a shot at providing the best player available when the Chiefs are on the clock.

In order to make the cut, a position had to have multiple players ranked within several slots of the Chiefs pick. That way it wasn’t reliant on one specific player still being available. Also, for the sake of this post I’m acting as if the Chiefs don’t acquire any additional picks. If KC were to land a 2nd rounder that may change things.

Let’s start with the first pick.

Round 1, Pick #1 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Offensive Tackle

I know not everyone is in love with the idea of KC taking a tackle with the first overall pick, but when it comes to value at the top of the draft OT is the clear winner. Luke Joeckel/Texas A&M was the top ranked prospect on both lists with Eric Fisher/Central Michigan ranking 2nd and 3rd and Lane Johnson/Oklahoma ranking 6th and 7th. So three of the top seven players available in this draft are offensive tackles. So if the Chiefs want to take the best player available they can do it and fill a need. I realize that if KC keeps Branden Albert this season that they would be essentially drafting a RT at #1 overall, but if they are out to take the best player and fill a need then offensive tackle is the way to go.

Round 3, Pick #63 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Wide Receiver

While this draft lacks an elite WR prospect like Randy Moss, Julio Jones, or AJ Green it is INCREDIBLY deep with starting caliber WR prospects. Prospects that could have easily been early second round picks in other drafts may find themselves slipping into the 3rd round this year. The following players all ranked in the #57-84 range on at least one of the big boards listed above:

Justin Hunter – Tennessee
Terrance Williams – Baylor
Quinton Patton – Louisiana Tech
Markus Wheaton – Oregon State
Stedman Bailey – West Virginia
Aaron Dobson – Marshall
Da’Rick Rogers – Tennessee Tech

Now, it’s a safe bet that not all of those players will still be on the board, but odds are that several of them will be. That would allow KC to take a player that could compete for the #2 WR spot as a rookie at the top of the third round. By the way, while John Dorsey was in Green Bay they took Greg Jennings at pick #52 and Randall Cobb at pick #64. In my opinion the only other position that comes close to the talent available at this pick is CB, and with the signings of Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson I think WR seems much more likely.

Round 3, Pick #96 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Quarterback

I could be wrong about this, but I have a feeling that there is going to be a couple of QBs still available at this point that many people had predicted would go much earlier. Basically, the fact that several teams addressed the QB position via guys like Carson Palmer, Matt Flynn, and Kevin Kolb make it less likely that many QBs will be drafted in the first round and may therefore push some of the guys originally mocked in the 2nd-3rd round back even farther. There are 8 QBs that have been regularly mocked in the top 100 picks: Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray, and Zac Dysert.

Over the past 5 years the average amount of QBs taken in the first 3 rounds is only 5.4. The highest number of total QBs taken in the first 3 rounds during that time is 7. In a year where most feel the QB talent is down, it’s not out of the question that there could only be 4-5 QBs off the board when the Chiefs select at the end of the 3rd round. I wouldn’t even fall out of my chair if a guy like Tyler Wilson or Mike Glennon that were at one point mocked in the 1st round was still available. That means if Andy Reid wants a young QB to groom for the future this may be the prime time to snag one. The Chiefs pick again at #99 so they could easily wait a couple more picks, but my guess is that if you give all the QB needy teams one more go around in the 4th round that there won’t be much left to choose from in the 5th. At that point KC would be looking at guys like Matt Scott/Arizona, Landry Jones/Oklahoma, and Sean Renfree/Duke.

Round 4, Pick #99 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Running Back

Thus far in free agency Kansas City has not added a solid #2 RB to back up and share carries with Jamaal Charles. This may be a sign that they are looking to add one in the draft. Like WR, there aren’t any “super-star” prospects in this draft, but there are several mid round prospects that could become solid NFL contributors. The following backs are all ranked between #93-116 on at least one of the big boards listed above:

Montee Ball – Wisconsin
Andre Ellington – Clemson
Joseph Randle – Oklahoma State
Stepfan Taylor – Stanford
Mike Gillislee – Florida
Marcus Lattimore – South Carolina
Christine Michael – Texas A&M

Again, not all of these guys will be available with this pick, but several will be and KC could have their pick of which one they like best.

Round 5, Pick #134 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Offensive Line

At this point in the draft teams are looking for depth and developmental prospects and there are MANY options that will be available to do just that on the offensive line at this point in the draft. I don’t know if any of these players should start as rookies, but I think many of them may eventually develop into legit NFL starters. A 5th round pick that develops into a solid starter is great value, period. Even if takes them a few years to get there. Here is a list of players that at least one big board has as still available for KC in the 5th round:

Khaled Holmes – C – USC
PJ Lonergan – C – LSU
Hugh Thornton – G – Illinois
JC Tretter – G – Cornell
David Bakhitari – G/T – Colorado
Dallas Thomas – G/T – Tennessee
David Quessenberry – C/G/T – San Jose St.
Brennan Williams – T – North Carolina
Jordan Mills – T – Louisiana Tech
Xavier Nixon – T – Florida
Chris Faulk – T – LSU
Ricky Wagner – T – Wisconsin

I didn’t do the last three KC picks (#170, 204, and 207) because I think by the time you get to the 6th-7th rounds it’s more about individual project players that a team likes than it is positional depth/value. It’s possible that a certain position slides that deep into the draft, but I’d just be guessing if I tried to predict which one.

So if KC were to follow this blueprint what positions of need would not get addressed? The most glaring is probably the defensive front seven. KC could use more depth on the defensive line and another pass rush option. They are also in need of a replacement for Jovan Belcher at ILB, but perhaps the recent FA signings at LB will fill that hole.

The other positions that were ignored here are TE and safety. While KC doesn’t need to spend a high pick on either of those positions, a mid round pick to add depth is certainly a possibility.

So what do you think Addicts? If KC drafted those positions next week would you be happy? Do you feel like it would provide good value? Would it fill enough positions of need or do the defensive front seven, tight end, or safety have to be addressed in the draft? I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell speaks at the start of the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

The 2013 NFL Draft will soon be upon us and the last time the first pick of the first round was this uncertain was the whole Eli Manning-to-the-Chargers debacle. For the last few years the team with the first pick has been open and vocal about who they would choose and there was absolutely no suspense leading up to the moment when Commissioner Roger Goodell approached the stage and uttered the famous words: “With the first pick of the NFL draft…”

This year, it’s all different. While the Kansas City Chiefs sit in the driver’s seat with the No. 1 overall pick, they’ve been very tight lipped about who exactly they have in mind for the pick. The only clue they’ve given the fans at large is the insight that head coach Andy Reid and GM John Dorsey are evaluating approximately ten players to pick with that opening selection. However, there are more picks than just the first one to worry about. Reid, Dorsey and their scouting staff have quite the job in evaluating players leading up to the big day on April 25^th. Currently, the Chiefs’ draft order looks like this:

Round 1: Pick 1

Round 3: Pick 63

Round 3: Pick 96

Round 4: Pick 99

Round 5: Pick 134

Round 6: Pick 170

Round 6: Pick 204

Round 7: Pick 207

If you didn’t feel like counting, that’s eight picks in all. The second third-round pick and the second sixth-round pick are compensatory picks awarded for the loss of Brandon Carr and… ahem… Barry “Turnstile” Richardson in free agency last year. Also, in case you’ve been living under a rock for the past three months and you didn’t know, the reason the Chiefs don’t have a second-round pick is because the duo of Reid and Dorsey have effectively already used that pick by trading it to the San Francisco 49ers for the services of new starting quarterback, Alex Smith.

However, the Chiefs aren’t resigned to this fate. In fact, there’s a very good possibility they might not even make the first pick at all. There are several teams picking in the top-ten of this year’s draft who have issues at the quarterback position. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets have all expressed some level of interest in moving on from their current signal caller. Some teams have shown higher levels of interest than others and are more desperate than their quarterback starved colleagues. The Bills are perhaps the worst-off in the bunch.

In the game of QB-Monte that has been the standard during this off-season, the Bills signed former Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback, Kevin Kolb, to a two year deal worth around $12 to $13 million, depending on what source you listen to. While that is a step in the right direction of shoring up their QB depth chart, that contract is nowhere near “starter money.” The Raiders announced earlier this morning they have finalized a trade with the Seattle Seahawks for the services of quarterback, Matt Flynn. As with the other scenarios, Flynn’s large contract was an issue, which is why the finalization of the trade has taken so long. With Flynn giving up his neon green and blue for black and silver, the Cardinals and the Raiders just finalized a trade sending Carson Palmer to Arizona. Palmer is set to make $20 million in the next two years indicating the Cardinals are out of the QB sweepstakes. The point is, none of these teams are willing to overpay a guy who might not be the opening day starter under center. That makes them all possible landing spots for the undisputed “best QB in the draft,” Geno Smith.

This leaves Buffalo as the most likely landing spot for Geno Smith. The Bills have expressed interest in him and may be the most willing of the top-ten teams to make the plunge and trade up to the top of the pile in order to secure him before another team (like Oakland, Jacksonville or even the Chiefs) can get their hands on him. If that happened, the price would be hefty, but doable.

The cost of such a trade would most likely be a swap of first-round picks (Buffalo picks eighth) the Bills’ second-round pick and their 2014 first-round pick. This scenario is considerably cheaper than the big trade of last season in which the Washington Redskins surrendered three total first-round picks and a second-round pick to the St. Louis Rams in order to secure the No. 2 overall pick and the services of Robert Griffin III.

The next scenario regarding the Chiefs’ draft day strategy is the trade of franchised left tackle, Branden Albert. Things have heated up in this arena over the last couple of days as Albert has said publicly he wants to know if he’s being traded and won’t show up to voluntary workouts until he gets word of his status with the team. We know the Chiefs want at least a second-round pick this year and the next. We also know from previous reports that the Miami Dolphins expressed interest in Albert’s services and have mulled a possible trade. So, for the purposes of this “best case scenario” we’ll say that Miami is the most likely trade partner and they’re willing to part with both of their second-round picks in this year’s draft to replace the hole left by the departure of their left tackle, Jake Long.

These two trades could create a “perfect storm” of draft day magic for the Chiefs. Their draft order would now look like this:

Round 1: Pick 8 (From Buffalo)

Round 2: Pick 41 (From Buffalo)

Round 2: Pick 42 (From Miami)

Round 2: Pick 54 (From Miami)

Round 3: Pick 63

Round 3: Pick 96

Round 4: Pick 99

Round 5: Pick 134

Round 6: Pick 170

Round 6: Pick 204

Round 7: Pick 207

By doing this, the Chiefs would gain three second-round picks this year and a first rounder next year which would go to further the Reid/Dorsey philosophy of “building through the draft.”

But, what do the Chiefs do with these draft picks? There are ultimately a million different scenarios involving what players fall where, and what other teams do. Since we’re dealing with hypotheticals, I’ve done a mock draft using the Chiefs’ modified draft picks.

To set the stage for the first-round pick, I mocked out the seven teams picking before the Chiefs and the two teams after. For the rest of the Chiefs’ picks, I used the Big Draft Board at www.drafttek.com and used the rules of only moving “up” five positions but dropping down as far as I needed.

Here is my mock of the first ten overall picks:

1. Buffalo Bills

Geno Smith

QB, West Virginia

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Dion Jordan

OLB, Oregon

3. Oakland Raiders

Shariff Floyd

DT, Florida

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Luke Joeckel

OT, Texas A & M

5. Detroit Lions

Ezekial “Ziggy” Ansah

DE, BYU

6. Cleveland Browns

Dee Milner

CB, Alabama

7. Arizona Cardinals

Eric Fisher

OT, Central Michigan

 8. Kansas City Chiefs

Lane Johnson

OT, Oklahoma

9. New York Jets

Jarvis Jones

OLB, Georgia

10. Tennessee Titans

Chance Warmack

OG, Alabama

I used the mock draft page at www.nfl.com and used the average of each of those mock drafts to pick the players for the other teams. I took into account, of course, the fact that the Chiefs and the Bills switched spots.

Now, here is my full Chiefs’ mock draft complete with short explanations of each pick:

Round 1: Pick 8 (From Buffalo)

Lane Johnson, OT – Oklahoma

With Joeckel falling to the Eagles to protect Michael Vick and Fisher going to Arizona to protect Drew Stanton or Carson Palmer (or whoever is calling plays in Sun Devil Stadium this year), the Chiefs are forced to take Lane Johnson. The last time three offensive tackles were taken in the top-ten picks of the draft was 2002, so it’s obvious that it doesn’t happen very often. The fact is, all three of this year’s top tackles are rated very high across the board by multiple draft experts (and I’m not talking about Scott Pioli) so that should tell you something. Johnson isn’t that far behind Joeckel and Fisher in skill and will work nicely with this former college teammate, Donald Stephenson, who could potentially start at right tackle next season if the Chiefs can’t sign a free agent to step in. Johnson is a day one starter and the clear replacement for Branden Albert.

Round 2: Pick 41 (From Buffalo)

Zach Ertz, TE – Stanford

The Chiefs have some talent already on the roster at the tight end position with fourth year man, Tony Moeaki and newly signed free agent, Anthony Fasano. Zach Ertz could come in and start day one over both of them. He’s a big, pass catching tight end who’s decent in the run-blocking game as well. One thing quarterback Alex Smith has struggled with in years past is scoring in the red zone. Having a big target like Ertz could only help the Chiefs score 6 instead of 3 inside the 20 yard line.

Round 2: Pick 42 (From Miami)

Arthur Brown, ILB – Kansas State

Probably the biggest need the Chiefs didn’t address during the free agency frenzy was the inside linebacker position next to Derrick Johnson. Last season the late Jovan Belcher filled the role. I’m not intending to speak ill of the dead, but he wasn’t that good. His replacement, Brandon Siler, wasn’t all that hot either. The Chiefs need a hard-thumping, quick-moving, run-stopper at this position who can also drop into pass coverage from time to time. I’ve watched some tape of Brown and he could be that guy.

Round 2: Pick 54 (From Miami)

William Gholston, DE – Michigan State

Say what you want about Glenn Dorsey, but losing him to the 49ers was a bit of a blow. I was really rooting for him to sign a long-term deal with the Chiefs and come back in red and gold in 2013. Having him walk has left a significant hole on the right side of the defensive line. If you combine that with the apparent lack of interest Reid and Dorsey have in re-signing Shaun “Big Perv” Smith and the fact that Ropati Pitoitua is relocating to the “Music City” after signing with the Tennessee Titans, the team needs a big defensive end to step in. At this draft position, Gholston could be a run-stopping day one starter.

Round 3: Pick 63

Kyle Long, OT – Oregon

When the Chiefs released Eric Winston in move based on a “difference of philosophy,” the team created a large hole for themselves. I said earlier that second year man, Donald Stephenson, could step in and start in the right tackle position, and I think he could. However, the competition of a good rookie in Long could only help drive the level of Stephenson’s play even higher. Long comes from the spread offense of Chip Kelly’s last gig, which means he would hold up a bit better as a pass-blocker than your average right tackle. I’m not saying he’s a day one starter, but he absolutely could be. Either way, it adds depth at perhaps the most important (and most uncertain) group in the Chiefs’ offense.

Round 3: Pick 96

Jonathon Bostic, ILB – Florida

If there’s one thing this year’s draft class has, it’s defensive depth. Whether a team is looking for defensive line, line backers or defensive secondary, there are plenty of young, above average talent to go around in the middle rounds. Jonathon Bostic is one of those men. Taking two inside linebackers within the first three rounds could be an unpopular decision. The Chiefs’ need at the inside linebacker position is likely the biggest need on their roster. This is a safe pick if for depth, if nothing else.

Round 4: Pick 99

Devin Taylor, DE – South Carolina

As the draft reaches the top end of 100 picks, most teams are picking for depth over hidden gem superstars. Rarely is a starting player found in the second of half of the draft. I already have the Chiefs taking a defensive end, but if Taylor falls to the Chiefs here, they should pick him up. At 6’7”, he is taller than most and by rotating him in on third down (likely passing situations) and having him extend his arms, he could be a ball swatter in the mold of J.J. Watt. I can dream, at least.

Round 5: Pick 134

Knile Davis, FB – Arkansas

Remember Tony Richardson and Kimble Anders? Me too. Those are about the last fullbacks on the Chiefs roster I could tell you by name. (That’s not entirely true, I know last year it was Patrick Di’Marco, but that’s not my point.) Fullbacks aren’t glamorous and generally you don’t hear the words “franchise” and “fullback” used in the same sentence. Jamaal Charles could really use a big bruiser to bust open a hole for him so he can break those 50 yard touchdown runs we all love to watch. I was hoping they would use Peyton Hillis in this capacity last year. I like Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray as back-ups to Charles, but the Chiefs need a bruiser who can maybe catch a pass out of the backfield on occasion. Davis is the guy for the job.

Round 6 Pick 170

Josh Evans, FS – Florida

If the Chiefs are looking for depth at round six, Josh Evans could come in and provide just that as well as some competition for Kendrick Lewis. I’ve read in a couple of different places that Reid possibly intends to use newly signed defensive back Dunta Robinson at free safety. This seems to be a pattern with him and moving around players to positions they aren’t used to playing (see offensive line) and Josh Evans is no Sabby Piscitelli, but I think he could be a good rotational and special teams player.

Round 6: Pick 204

Ace Sanders, WR – South Carolina

Honestly, the only reason I picked Ace Sanders is because he’s fast, and his name is Ace. How cool would it be to have a guy named Ace on the Chiefs? Especially if his number was 1. I would buy that jersey. Ace Sanders. I didn’t make that up.

It would be cool. Ok, that’s all I’ve really got to say about that.

Round 7: Pick 207

Spencer Nealy, DE – Texas A & M

Nealy is really a depth move and a guy that may or may not make the 53 man roster. He’s a big defensive end, and could provide some depth in some sub-package sets. Otherwise, he’s a project that could end up on the practice squad.

That’s it, Addicts! That’s my mock draft utilizing what I believe the best case scenario for the Chiefs on draft day. I’d love to see your mocks using these picks. Use the www.drafttek.com draft board and you can only reach up the board by five picks and you can go as deep as you want. Let’s see you put your GM hat on! Good luck!

This is my first attempt at a mock draft this year. For my first mock I’m not going to put in any trades. I still believe there is a strong chance that KC may get someone to bite and move up to #1 to take Geno Smith, but for the sake of this mock I will keep everyone in their original draft slot.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Luke Joeckel
OT, Texas A&M

If Kansas City stays at #1 overall I think this pick is a done deal. I know many KC fans would like them to sign Branden Albert long term and go elsewhere with this pick, but I think the writing is on the wall. Even if they are able to trade back a few spots (cough, Bills, cough) I still think they will go OT, likely Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson whom they had a private work out with.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ezekiel Ansah
DE, BYU

New Jags coach Gus Bradley is a defensive guy. The Jags had the fewest sacks in the NFL last season. When you combine those things with already having a QB that they reached for on their roster in Blaine Gabbert, I think it will lead to them passing on Geno Smith and taking a defensive player. I think they need a true DE more than a LB (Dion Jordan) or a DT (Sharrif Floyd). That’s why I have Ansah and his amazing upside here over some of the other defensive players being mocked to them.

3. Oakland Raiders
Geno Smith
QB, West Virginia

This is the lowest possible spot I see Geno Smith going. The Raiders are in the process of rebuilding the mess left by Al Davis and the previous powers that be. Their cap situation is a mess. This isn’t going to be a quick turn around. Carson Palmer is an average at best QB right now and is on the decline. There is no way he is the long term QB for this team and I think the Raiders would love to get rid of his cap number. I have previously stated that I think Geno Smith’s upside is a player like Aaron Rodgers, a pocket QB with good athleticism, great accuracy, and a solid but not elite arm. The Raiders’ GM Reggie McKenzie just happens to be from Green Bay.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
Sharrif Floyd
DT, Florida

No player has shot up mock drafts more in the past month than Floyd. The general consensus is that he will be a top five pick. The Eagles are supposed to be running a 3-4 base next season and with the loss of Cullen Jenkins they’ll need someone to play DE in their three man front. The pairing of Floyd with last year’s first round pick Fletcher Cox would give Philly two very talented interior players. Star Lotulelei could also be a possibility if he clears medically.

5. Detroit Lions
Eric Fisher
OT, Central Michigan

This pick is pretty simple. The Lions best player is a WR and the quarterback that they rely on to get him the ball has some injury history. They have no LT to protect that quarterback and Eric Fisher is arguably the best player available at any position.

6. Cleveland Browns
Cordarrelle Patterson
WR, Tennessee

Ideally I think the Browns would like a new franchise QB, but there just isn’t anyone available here that is worth taking. With head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner running the offense they are going to throw the ball. So instead of drafting a QB they’ll get Brandon Weeden the best weapon available. Pairing Patterson with Josh Gordon would give Weeden two great young targets to use to help open up the field for Trent Richardson. Watch for a possible trade down here as well.

7. Arizona Cardinals
Chance Warmack
OG, Alabama

Like Cleveland, the Cards would love to go QB here. However, after working with Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck, new Cards coach Bruce Arians knows what a good young QB looks like and I think he’ll realize that there isn’t a QB like them on the board here. If he’s going to get by for a year with a bad QB, that QB is going to need better protection than what the Cards have had up front recently. This pick could also be Lane Johnson, but Warmack is the higher rated player and safer pick.

8. Buffalo Bills
Ryan Nassib
QB, Syracuse

I still think the Bills will feel pressured to trade up to #1 overall in order to take Geno Smith, but since I said I wouldn’t do any trades in this mock Nassib is plan B. Nassib seems to be the #2 QB in the draft at this point and obviously he has an advantage with his college coach now running things for the Bills. Do I think Nassib has any business being a top 10 pick? No. Do I think the Bills get a QB in the first round no matter what after Buddy Nix got caught running his mouth about needing to find his franchise QB and releasing Ryan Fitzpatrick? Yes.

9. New York Jets
Dion Jordan
OLB, Oregon

If Darrelle Revis gets traded as many believe, this pick could easily be Dee Milliner. Until that happens, I’m going with Dion Jordan here. Rex Ryan’s defense has lacked playmakers in the front seven recently. Jordan is a freak athlete that should help get some pressure on the QB.

10. Tennessee Titans
Dee Milliner
CB, Alabama

The Titans are probably really hoping that Darrelle Revis doesn’t get traded because I’m guessing Milliner is probably at the top on their wish list for this pick. Milliner could easily go higher than this, but if he’s available the Titans will jump all over him.

11. San Diego Chargers
Lane Johnson
OT, Oklahoma

This pick is a lot like the previous one. Johnson could possibly go before this, but if he’s there San Diego will pounce on him. The Chargers MUST land a LT to help give Phillip Rivers some time to throw. Don’t be surprised if San Diego moves up on draft day to ensure they land one of the top OTs in the draft if they think one won’t be there at pick #11.

12. Miami Dolphins
Xavier Rhodes
CB, Florida State

The Dolphins would love to land Milliner, but unless they are willing to trade up he won’t be an option here. That leaves either Rhodes or Desmond Trufant here if the Dolphins want to address their major need at CB. It’s a toss up between the two for me. I went with Rhodes because they lost a big CB in FA in Sean Smith and at 6’2″ Rhodes could fill that role of covering taller WRs.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Desmond Trufant
CB, Washington

If the Bucs land Revis, I’ll change this pick in my next mock, but for the time being the Bucs top need remains CB. With Milliner and Rhodes off the board that leaves Trufant as the top cover CB available.

14. Carolina Panthers
Star Lotulelei
DT, Utah

Lotulelei is one of the hardest players to mock at this point. He was able to work out at his pro day and reportedly looked good. If healthy (or medically cleared, to be more precise) he warrants a top 5 pick and has drawn numerous comparisons to Haloti Ngata. If teams don’t like the medical reports he could slide all the way to the middle rounds. It seems like Carolina has been looking for someone to anchor their interior defensive line forever so I think they will jump all over him unless the medical red flags are too much.

15. New Orleans Saints
Tavon Austin
WR, West Virginia

This pick is not need based, but the idea of giving Drew Brees arguably the most explosive offensive player in this draft is just too tempting. Austin has been moving up draft boards lately and getting to play indoors in the Super Dome with Brees throwing him the ball and Sean Payton drawing up plays for him would make him the front runner for offensive rookie of the year.

16. St. Louis Rams
Keenan Allen
WR, California

Offensive line and safety could also be options here, but Allen is a potential #1 WR and after releasing Steven Jackson it would appear that the Rams will rely more on Bradford throwing the ball. Pairing Allen with the recently signed Jared Cook at TE would greatly improve the Rams ability to throw the ball.

The Scene: My car, 4:30pm on March 12th.

It had been a normal day at work and I had just picked up my daughter from preschool for our 30 minute commute home, I turned over the radio to KC’s 610 AM and anxiously waited to hear if the Chiefs had struck early in free agency. I was excited, like a kid at Christmas. We have Anthony Fasano, “great” I thought. We have Mike DeVito from the Jets, “solid move” was my reaction. Then came word that the Alex Smith deal was finalized AND that the Chiefs had committed a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract to Chase Daniel to be their back up QB. It was at this moment that the truth finally sunk in.

My body went numb. Turning my head so my 5 year old in the back seat couldn’t see I stared out at the open highway in front of me and let this truth wash over me. A single solitary tear running down my cheek.

Okay, so I’m being a LITTLE melodramatic.

While this might be a slight exaggeration of how things went down (we all know I looked online before I left to pick up my daughter to see if the Chiefs had signed anyone), it does paint the picture of my true feelings on the matter. I REALLY wanted the Chiefs to draft Geno Smith. Even after news of the Alex Smith trade broke and I publicly declared my Geno Smith to the Chiefs bandwagon dismantled I was secretly holding out hope that it still might happen. The “Geno to KC” fan club meetings were still being held at undisclosed secret locations, but once news of the Daniel deal broke the little piece of hope that burned inside me was eternally “snuffed out” (sorry, probably too melodramatic again).

I still think Geno will be a franchise QB. I still think that the Chiefs would have been better off in the long run (maybe not next year) with Geno and their 2nd round draft pick then with Alex Smith, but it’s time to move on. I’m now focused on how my beloved Chiefs can best succeed going forward with Alex Smith as their starting QB. Amazingly, I believe the answer does involve Geno Smith being drafted with the #1 pick, just not by the Chiefs.

I completely understand Patrick Allen’s position he laid out so well (check it out HERE if you haven’t read it yet) regarding the Chiefs taking Geno, but it’s time to move on. The comments section and entire Chiefs blogosphere still contains people with their hopes up that Geno will be in KC next year. It’s not happening. I’m not trying to be a downer here. I LOVE Geno Smith. I spent the better part of 2 weeks making a 14 minute video breaking down why he should go #1. Alex Smith didn’t put the nail in the coffin, but the Daniel signing did. If KC was remotely considering Geno or any other QB in the first couple rounds, there’s no reason to pay Chase Daniel what they are paying him next year. Remember, this is a team that watched Geno’s tape, watched him throw at the combine, talked to him face to face, and then went straight home to KC and traded for Alex Smith. They don’t want Geno. I’ve accepted it, and so should you.

It’s okay though, I still think Geno can help KC build a playoff team.

I’m now convinced more than ever before that Geno Smith will be the #1 pick in this year’s draft. It just won’t be Kansas City that selects him. I now feel confident that the Chiefs will be able to trade out of the top pick so that another team can move up and take Geno.

I’ve been on the Geno bandwagon for months. Not because of internet hype, but because I took the time to watch every snap of him that I could find and felt that he had “star QB” upside. I watched the good games and the bad and my thought was that even though Geno was inconsistent, he possessed the talent to be elite if he received good coaching and time to develop. My view was not shared by most draft “experts”. As recently as the NFL combine Mike Mayock said that he’d give Geno a late first round grade.

Then he went out and threw some passes at his pro day, indoors, in shorts, with no defense, no rush, to WRs he’s thrown to for years, with months of practice on those exact throws and routes, and now everybody loves him.

I find that hilarious.

Everyone says it’s a player’s game tape that matters most, not workouts, and then after a pro day they bump him up from a late first round prospect to a sure fire top ten pick (I’m looking at you Mayock). I may be 100% wrong about Geno Smith, but at least my opinion was formed from watching his games not some staged performance that doesn’t translate to NFL games. Now suddenly Geno is the hot name. The Jaguars sent their entire front office to go watch him, the Eagles gave him a major work over at a personal work out. The Cardinals need a QB and let’s not forget about the Buffalo Bills (more on them in a minute).

There is no FA starting QB market for teams to turn to. There isn’t anyone available that is going to improve a team at QB, even if your starter is Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, John Skelton, or Tavaris Jackson. That’s how bad things are out there. QB is everything in this league and there are multiple teams out there that are significantly worse at QB than the Chiefs are now. That gives KC great leverage.

I know many of you want Geno Smith. So do I. I know many of you think we’d be better off with Geno over Alex Smith. I agree. John Dorsey and Andy Reid don’t. So instead of spending the next month hoping for something that isn’t happening I’ve turned my attention to the much more likely scenario which is one of these teams that are starved for a QB trading up to get Geno. Just a few weeks ago this was very unlikely. All the experts said he wasn’t worth it. Now Geno is a top ten pick and the clear best QB in the draft. A quarterback that is a sure fire top ten pick and clearly the best QB in his draft class is a valuable commodity. A commodity that someone will value enough to make a deal with KC for. Now, KC may not get the return that others have for the pick, but they can still get themselves a pretty good haul.

This is where the Buffalo Bills come in. In my opinion, Bills GM Buddy Nix is not a very smart man. The same GM that gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a FAT long term contract and drastically overpaid for Mario Williams made public comments earlier in the season about the Bills needing to get a franchise QB (despite the fact that HE paid Fitzpatrick like a franchise QB just a couple years ago) in the draft. Then he managed to get tricked into calling the Bucs GM and was recorded doing it. He basically told everyone in the world that Fitzpatrick wasn’t going to be his starter going forward. He also basically said that finding a QB was the key to their success going forward. Immediately after this recording went public the Bills cut Fitzpatrick. So now the Bills sit at pick #8 in the draft with no starting caliber QB on their roster, an intentional public statement that they would draft a franchise QB on record, an unintentional statement about them needing a QB this offseason because their (then) current QB wasn’t good enough on record, and no hope that the one QB seen as a possible franchise QB will still be there when they pick.

The Bills have their backs against the wall. The fact that the teams picking in slots 2-4 are all showing interest in Geno helps KC’s cause. If the Bills want Geno there is no way that they can hope he falls to them now and since one of the other teams that may be interested is the Jags at #2, the Bills will have to go all the way to #1 in order to land him for sure. We all know that QBs are over drafted and this year will be no exception.

So what do I think KC can get from KC?

I think the minimum return is Buffalo’s first and second round picks this year AND their first round pick next year.

I know what some of you are going to say “Nobody is giving that up for the first pick this year!” Really? The Falcons gave up more than that to move up to #5 to take a WR. The Redskins gave up THREE first round picks and change to get RG3. The Bills could still claim that they got their franchise QB at a discount compared to what other teams have and would have had to pay in other drafts. Plus, the Bills will be at a disadvantage in dealing for the first pick compared to teams like Jax and Philly who draft in front of them. Therefore, they will be forced to offer more than those teams if they want their man.

Let the record state that I am on record as stating that Geno Smith will be drafted #1 overall by the Buffalo Bills. Write it down.

Geno Smith has always been my plan when it came to the Chiefs and the 2013 draft. I’ve just had to change that plan given where things stand now. Geno Smith is not going to be a Kansas City Chief, but he is still the key to the Chiefs’ draft. I just hope KC fans can all come to terms with that.

I finally have.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, these new guys sure know how to keep us guessing.

When you think they’re going to zig, they zag. For weeks, reports were coming out about unproductive contract negotiations with the Chiefs’ unsigned stars and our new GM’s affinity for the “draft-and-develop” and “best-player-available” approaches. When the new regime traded our 2^nd rounder (and more) for QB Alex Smith, it seemed cemented that LT Brandon Albert would be allowed to walk, Bowe would be tagged and denied a long-term deal for another year and the Chiefs would draft the best tackle available.

Then, the team locked up all three of the team’s most important free agents – including Albert – in a day. Chiefs nation rejoiced. This made the offensive linemen a secondary need moving forward and freed our hands to do whatever we pleased in the draft. Then, just as suddenly, the team cut our second-best lineman at the opposite tackle spot.

RT Eric Winston’s $4.5-million salary was more than reasonable given his skill and the value of the position.  Did they need the cap space? Well, by restructuring DE Tyson Jackson’s contract, they doubled their cap space for 2013 and they still have Matt Cassel on the roster due $7.5 million next year. More head-scratching ensues.

Maybe they want to go young? Perhaps they’ll move Albert to RT, or start the 1^st-overall tackle selection there. But, they just traded a high pick for a veteran quarterback. Not exactly a rebuilding move. If there were any doubts that the new regime believes it can win now, those were certainly dashed by the signing of CB Dunta Robinson, who is 31 and will make an average of $5 million a year for the next three.

Josh D. Weiss-USA TODAY Sports

Immediately, speculation was rife that the Chiefs intend to move him to free safety. This of course did not stop CB Javier Arenas from mouthing off to a local blogger who had the temerity to suggest that the team that gave up 29 passing touchdowns last year (only four teams allowed more) could use some cornerback help.

After spending a few days trying to reconcile the seeming contradictory nature of these moves over the past week, I finally realized the simple truth that we can only see a portion of the plan right now. Free agency hasn’t really started and the Draft is still more than a month away. Trying to figure out what the new regime is doing is like trying to put together a puzzle with only about 10% of the pieces.

To me, this is what we are seeing:

Reid wants an O-line that can pass block

Overall, Pro Football Focus rated the Chiefs offensive line as the 12^th best in the league in 2012, but that ranking was pushed up for them being the 8^th best run-blocking unit. They were far less effective when you look at their pass blocking (14^th) and amount of penalties accrued (15^th). Winston was pretty much the embodiment of that. Winston is a gnarly run-blocker, but committed 10 penalties and isn’t at his best blocking for passers.

This is actually both a deep Draft and free agency year for tackles, so if HC Andy Reid and company think they can find better and cheaper pass-blocking tackles out there, then this move makes perfect sense. In the NFL, it is considered a gentlemanly move to cut players as soon as you are confident you will be moving on from them. Releasing Winston now gives him a jump on free agency and the best chance to get value for his services. Had they waited until after the Draft, most teams looking for right tackles would have likely already filled their roster holes and the money out there would be spent as well.

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The names I would keep my eye on are Gosder Cherilus of the Lions and Winston Justice, who previously played for Reid in Philly and will come cheap. The team is also reportedly arranging workouts with top tackle prospects Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher.

The new regime respects this defense

I honestly expected a lot more turnover on the defensive side of the ball by this point. However, the fact that the Chiefs kept Jackson and reportedly want to hold on to DE Glenn Dorsey shows that they think that this defense doesn’t need to be fiddled with much. They picked up Robinson quickly after he was cut by Atlanta for a surprisingly reasonable price. Generally, players will get a bit more money before free agency opens up, because they are essentially allowing the team to fill a hole and narrow their focus before the floodgates open. Once it’s open season on free agents, everyone’s personal value goes down.

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

That’s why, to me, the Robinson signing smacks of opportunism. The team knew they wanted to bring in a starting quality CB or two, they sent Robinson an offer not looking at him as a priority target and it worked. The contract isn’t huge, but having Dunta gives them some flexibility. I would be surprised if we don’t sign at least one more free agent D-back (the Rams’ Quintin Mikell is my best guess).

This is what GM John Dorsey means by “best player available”

BPA is the new zeitgeist phrase of the Chiefs blogverse. It’s what Dorsey lives by, and I think it’s been largely misunderstood. In order to pick whatever you believe is the best value out there, you need to have a solid team in the first place. If your fridge breaks, you don’t go out and buy a second washing machine just because it’s on sale. Very few people will be excited if the Chiefs use their 1^st-overall pick on an offensive tackle, but if Dorsey thinks that the guy is a future Hall-of-Famer and there’s no longer any gaping holes on the roster, I can live with it.

We still need to get ourselves a backup QB (ideally through the Draft) and fill in a bit of depth here and there, but I think we starting to see the new guys make their mark on this team. The O-line is going to be reworked (although we’re not quite sure how), but otherwise we will be a team that rewards their own and fights to compete every year.

My qualms with specific moves aside thus far, I’m increasingly optimisitic for where this franchise is headed.

Yesterday Paddy shared with you the latest KC Chiefs related gossip going around the NFL, first that the Chiefs are interested in trading for Alex Smith and drafting Luke Joeckel, and then that SF is reporting that a deal for Smith (to an unnamed team) is “effectively complete”. Please excuse me now while I now pound my head against the keyboard in frustration.

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(and yes, I actually did do it, my head is apparently drawn to y, 4, and 6)

Look, I get it. John Dorsey and Andy Reid have forgotten more about what makes a winning football team than I’ll ever know. They are professionals that have a track record of success in the NFL and I am a public school band teacher. So if they think that is what is best for the Chiefs the sensible thing would be for you to trust their opinion over mine. That having been said…..

ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME?!?!?!?!?!?!?

In this little scenario that Ian Rapoport lays out the Chiefs would trade away one draft pick to acquire a quarterback that would essentially be an upgraded version of Matt Cassel who I would assume that they will then release. THEN they would let a perfectly good LT walk in free agency and use the once in a lifetime chance at having the first overall pick to take a LT to fill the hole that they created by letting the LT that they already had in house leave town.

I’m sorry, but after typing that I feel the need to bang my head on the keyboard again.

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(not as many numbers this time, I must have aimed lower)

Meanwhile, while this INCREDIBLY FRUSTRATING rumor was taking flight, Geno Smith was busy cementing himself as the top QB prospect in the 2013 draft. Smith highlighted a strong combine performance by posting a fantastic 4.59 second time in the 40 yard dash. That is the exact same time put up by Cam Newton, it was only 0.04 slower than Russell Wilson, and was only 0.06 slower than the NFL’s “next big thing” Colin Kaepernick. It was actually 0.06 FASTER than EJ Manuel who was labeled going in as the only QB athletic enough to incorporate any of the popular read option offensive schemes into his arsenal. So at a time when the NFL is looking for great athletes to play the QB position, it appears that despite the fact that he prefers to stand tall in the pocket, Geno Smith is actually the best equipped to make something happen with his feet should he need to.

Now, I know what some of you are going to say. “Lyle, you don’t draft a QB because he looks good running around in shorts!” You know who agrees with you? Geno Smith!

4.56 40, 10.4 broad jump, 34 inch vert. Yet none of this defines me as a QB! The game is won between the ears, study the tape!

— Eugene Geno Smith (@GenoSmith_12) February 24, 2013

Smith gets it. He’s a film junky. He’s driven to be the best and is willing to put in the work to make it happen. Was his throwing session at the combine perfect? No. Did most consider it the best of all the QBs at the combine? Yes. That’s what really matters to me. That’s why I’m riding the Geno Smith to Kansas City Bandwagon until the wheels fall off. He is the BEST QB IN THIS DRAFT. The NFL is a QB driven league. We have ZERO NFL CALIBER QBs ON OUR ROSTER. With the first pick in the draft we have a chance to guarantee that we walk away with the best QB available. I DON’T CARE how he stacks up against previous first QBs taken. I DON’T CARE how he grades out compared to the top LTs or DTs in this draft. LTs and DTs don’t win you Super Bowls, really good QBs do. That is why QBs ALWAYS get drafted higher than the “experts” have them slotted on their big boards. Hitting on a QB pays off 10 times more than hitting on a LT. Hitting on a QB increases your odds of going to the playoffs 10 times more than hitting on a LT. You think Miami doesn’t wish they had taken Matt Ryan over Jake Long? Joe Thomas may just be the best LT in all of football but how has that worked out for the Browns while he has been blocking for Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and Colt McCoy?

I get that Geno has holes in his game. I get that he has some work to do. I get that he is in need of some coaching. Mike Mayock recently said he’s seen Geno Smith make all the big time QB throws, but he’s too inconsistent. You know who else has admitted that? Geno Smith. He’s flat out said that he still needs to work to be more consistent. My point is that if he has the talent to make all the throws, the work ethic to keep working, AND a coach like Andy Reid to mentor him, I like his odds to succeed. Is there still a risk? Sure there is. Could Geno bust? Absolutely.

I’ll still take Geno Smith and Branden Albert over Alex Smith and Luke Joeckel every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I’ll also take watching Geno Smith bust for my beloved Chiefs over watching Geno Smith turn into a Pro Bowl QB for another team while KC stumbles along in mediocrity with Alex Smith at QB knowing that Geno could have been ours.

But what do I know, I’m not a NFL GM or head coach. I’m just a blogger. A blogger that is going to keep riding the Geno Smith to KC bandwagon until the wheels fall off.

Now who’s with me?

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In case you missed it, HERE‘s my video on why Geno is worth the #1 pick.

The last week has certainly thrown our QB draft predictions through a loop.

The first shoe to drop was Michael Vick, who signed a new three-year contract “that’s really a one-year deal” according to USA Today worth up to $10 million last Monday. He was already under contract but his restructured deal all but ended speculation that he might be a cap casualty and hit the open market. This leaves just Alex Smith and Matt Flynn as starting-caliber QB’s who could be cut or traded by their current teams.

Then, over the weekend, Dorsey heavily criticized this year’s incoming quarterback draft class, citing “so many inconsistencies” and “too many technical flaws, scheme flaws” among this year’s crop.

Like Paddy, I struggle to understand the purpose of these statements except that maybe he’s hoping to find a trade partner who is enamored with either DT Star Lotulelei or LT Luke Joeckel (the consensus top prospects at the moment) and is willing to hopscotch up to the Chiefs’ spot to guarantee not missing out on one of them. Then again, it’s February and GM’s are usually the last person you can trust leading up to the draft. On the other hand, when you hold the first pick, you don’t really need to juke out anyone.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A few days before his statements came reports that the Chiefs were interested in trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles. It remains unclear if these reports or credible or just idle speculation that Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid would be interested in taking the quarterback he drafted last year and started in the final seven games of the season. One way or the other, with the Chiefs QB options narrowing, it is certainly worth considering whether the team should make a play for Foles and what he would be worth.

In my opinion, Foles is worth at least the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick. Here’s why:

His overall stats for his rookie season were unimpressive: 1-7 record, 60.8% completion percentage for 6.41 yards per completion, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. But, it’s important to see how he progressed. In his last four games last year he was 5 TD’s, 2 INTs for 1,152 yards (a 289.25 per-game average).

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Consider also that he was never supposed to see the field in 2012. He was widely regarded as a guy who would need a lot of development to be ready to play in the NFL.

Furthermore, he was able to put in respectable performances for the Eagles during the home stretch of a season that was a slow motion implosion. Our very own Andy Reid was a lame duck in Week 3. The defense was a sieve, allowing a 27.8 per game (3^rd-worst in the league). Two coaches were fired mid-season. The offensive line was a disaster, allowing a league-high 118 QB hits, and 48 sacks. Only four teams allowed more.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

In some ways, none of this was new to him. He played college ball at Arizona, a middling team in the PAC-12 that played poor defense and only got to one bowl game during his stint there. Their head coach was fired after his junior season.

Nonetheless, Foles was a highly ranked prospect in the 2012 Draft because he possesses the prototypical qualities of a successful quarterback – 6’5” with a big arm and knack for dropping bombs in his receivers’ breadbaskets. In his final season for the Wildcats, he gained 4,334 yards with 28 TD’s and 14 INT’s. He was ranked CBS Sports’ 48^th overall prospect and was expected to go in the mid-to-late 2^nd round. (For a total breakdown of his college work, check out Ladner’s post on the subject from last year).

In fact, the only reason he fell so far was likely because last year’s draft class was so much richer than this year’s and there had already been a feeding frenzy on signal callers. Six quarterbacks were taken ahead of Foles — Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson. All but one of those guys started this year and proved that they could be productive players. After Foles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Lindley were selected and also ended up playing for their respective teams. So, while the Eagles may have gotten him for just a 3^rd, that was a steal. Luckily for us, Pioli grabbed a backup lineman instead.

So what is he worth?

For the record, I should reiterate that I continue to believe that the Chiefs’ best course of action is to franchise LT Brandon Albert, re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe and grab the top quarterback prospect (Geno Smith) with our first overall pick. We can pick up some serviceable veterans and depth players to plug in the rest of our holes with free agency and the lower-rungs of the draft.

But, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a case for grabbing Nick Foles.

With his youth, upside and NFL experience, I think Foles would easily be one of the top three quarterback prospects if he was magically inserted into the 2013 draft. His tape reminds me a lot of Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon and it’s possible that both of those guys will go in the first round. I can’t fathom either of them falling out of the 2^nd.

So, Nick Foles’ former draft position doesn’t matter much when talking about draft compensation this year. In fact, given that he showed the ability to be productive at this level automatically means that he is worth more than the 88^th overall pick, where he was chosen. Therefore, the Eagles are right to expect more in return.

If we’re talking about equitable compensation I think the conversation starts at the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick, which, as Ladner pointed out, is really a late 2^nd-round pick because the Saints and Browns have no 2^nd-rounders this year. We will still probably get a late-3^rd compensatory pick, so the sacrifice isn’t devastating. But, I don’t think the Chiefs should go as high as our #34 selection this year, simply because we need to get value with that pick this year (especially if we are going to “reach” at #1). But, I think it makes perfect sense to offer conditional 2014 picks and maybe even 2015 picks based on Foles’ performance.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

A possible deal could look like this – a 3^rd or 4^th this year and a 6^th next year that could increase to a 4^th, 3^rd, or even 2^nd-round pick in 2014 if he starts for us and takes us to the playoffs. Generally, a pick next year is considered the equivalent of a pick in the current year minus one round. In other words, a 3^rd-rounder next year is worth a 4^th-rounder this year in terms of draft capital.

With this kind of a deal, worst case scenario is that we give up one of our top-100 picks this year and not much else for a starting-quality backup, who is better than any QB we currently have on the roster, who is 24 and who has a ton of upside. He totally outplayed Brandon Weeden last year, who was taken in the 1^st round and is five years older.

If Foles starts for us and we do well with him in 2013, we won’t care that we lost our (late) 2^nd or 3^rd-round pick next year to get him.

Furthermore, Philadelphia may not be so determined to fetch such a high price. While they have said that they would need to be “blown away” by an offer, they have a new regime and are looking for a different type of quarterback. By re-signing Michael Vick and picking up QB Dennis Dixon, who Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly coached in Oregon, they are showing they want a guy who is mobile and can keep up with Kelly’s offense. Slow feet is one of Foles’ greatest weaknesses. He is the black sheep on the roster. So, while they see value in him, that doesn’t mean they’re in love.

While I know it would be groan-inducing for most Chiefs fans, trading for Foles may also be the team’s best way to get one of the most objectively talented prospects in the 2013 Draft plus a possible quarterback of the future. I’ve been on the record as saying that it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to bypass Geno for Lotulelei or Joeckel, but adding Foles to our shopping bag as a 3^rd round pick changes things a bit.

If Dorsey truly is averse to grabbing the top QB in 2013, I think the best consolation prize we are going to find is Nick Foles.

Last month I gave you a look at the 2013 NFL Draft consensus big board right before the Senior Bowl. With the NFL combine about to get under way I thought it might be a good idea to give you a look at the updated version. I’ll be using many of the same sources as I did in the last edition. Volume 2 is a composite of the following rankings: CBS’s NFL Draft Scout, Walterfootball.com, Drafttek, Bleacher Report, Scout’s Inc, Draftcountdown.com, NEPatriotsDraft.com, SI.com, and fftoolbox.com. In this edition I’ll give you the players current rank, their previous rank from last month, and also the “ranking range” that the player had. The later being the highest and lowest ranking that the player had from the different sources listed above. Afterwards, I’ll discuss the latest board’s impact on the KC Chiefs’ draft.

You can see that despite the fact that no meaningful football has been played in the past month, the board has seen a lot of fluctuation. This is in part a result of how some prospects performed at the Senior Bowl (Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson), but it is also a result of scouts having more time to watch tape on the prospects. I suspect that we’ll see a similar fluidity to the board after the combine is over and as the actual draft draws nearer. Also, I’d like to point out just how much disagreement there still is out there. Take a second to look at the ranking ranges of these prospects. They are all over the map. There is no bigger example than Sylvester Williams who ranked in at #50 but was rated as high as #15 on set of rankings and as low as #93 on another.

So how does this big board effect the Chiefs’ draft? Well, first off, there are only 6 consensus top 10 players from these nine sources: Joeckel, Lotulelei, Werner, Warmack, Fisher, and Milliner. In fact, if you look at the ranking ranges all the other prospects had at least one source that ranked them outside the top 15. So ANY prospect (not just QBs) taken first overall that aren’t one of the 6 players listed above will be seen as a huge reach by some experts.

So will KC draft one of those 6 players at first overall? Recent reports have surfaced that Branden Albert has passed his physical with KC and that they are working to re-sign him. If this is true and KC comes to a deal with Albert, then Joeckel and Fisher seem unlikely picks. If KC were to let Albert walk, then they would be very much in play. Taking a guard 1st overall seems unlikely, even one as good as Warmack. Werner is strictly an edge pass rusher and with Hali and Houston on the roster he would seem a poor bet for the pick as well. That really only leaves Lotulelei and Milliner as reasonable possibilities if Albert re-signs. Both of these players would fill a need (although if KC were to sign Chris Canty who visited the Chiefs their need at DE would be reduced) and would likely be foundational players for KC for a long time.

So what if KC goes outside those top six players with the first pick?

In my opinion, if KC goes outside those consensus top 10 players listed above it would almost certainly be for Geno Smith. I know that John Dorsey recently told Adam Teicher that there isn’t a stand out QB, but according to these rankings there is. Geno Smith ranks in at #12 in these rankings. The next QB on the list is Matt Barkley at #33. That’s a 21 spot difference. Would I be okay with the Chiefs taking the 12th overall prospect at #1 if it meant that they were getting a QB that was 21 spots better than any other QB in the draft? Yes, yes I would.

Plus, I take issue with people that say we’ll get better “value” if we take a QB at #34 overall. I would expect that at least 3 QBs will come off the board before KC’s 2nd round pick. That means that the best QB available when KC drafts in the 2nd round will probably be ranked in the 40s on the overall big board. Meanwhile, experts all over are talking about how this draft may lack elite talent at the top but it has excellent depth. Case in point, there are exactly 34 prospects on this list that were ranked in the top 20 on at least one set of rankings. That means that there is guaranteed to be at least one prospect on the board when the Chiefs pick in the 2nd round that some had as a top 20 pick. So how is taking a QB at #34 that is ranked in the 40s when there is still top 20 talent left on the table better value?

I would argue that in a draft lacking in elite top talent but deep in overall value that reaching for Geno at #1 would actually be less costly than passing up solid first round talent at the top of the 2nd round to take the 4th or 5th best QB in a weak QB class. Frankly, if KC doesn’t take a QB at #1 overall I’d rather they waited until the 3rd-5th rounds to take one.

I understand what Dorsey told Teicher, but what do you expect him to say? “We think there is one guy that is clearly the best at QB and if we don’t get him we’re in trouble.” Why would he put himself into a corner like that? At this point I’m sure KC is trying to keep all of their options open. Am I saying that I’m confident that they’ll draft Geno? No way, I don’t have a clue. I’m also not ruling it out.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the matter. What do you think of this latest big board? Who do you see KC taking at this point? Where do you see the value in drafting a QB? Let’s hear your answers in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As I watched Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick do battle in the Super Bowl yesterday I was reminded once again of something we all know all too well, the KC Chiefs REALLY need a quarterback. Whenever a team needs a new QB it seems that nothing else matters. Its all the fans can talk about. It’s all the media wants to talk about. It’s almost all that us sports bloggers can write about. I agree that the decision of who will play QB for KC next season is probably the most important decision. However, there is another decision that KC must make first that will have a huge impact on who KC gets to play QB for them. That decision is what to do with starting LT Branden Albert.

Now, before I go any further, let me be 100% clear. If the Chiefs have no doubts about Branden Albert’s long term health then it would be foolish to not re-sign him. However, most KC fans seem to be taking Albert’s health for granted. Blogs and KC talk radio shows are filled with fans saying that it would be ridiculous to draft a LT at #1 overall when you can just re-segn the perfectly good LT you already have. The problem with that line of thinking is that back problems can be a BIG problem for offensive linemen if they become chronic. That is why the state of Branden Albert’s back is so important to the Chiefs offseason.

Now before you start flooding the comments section with things like “I heard it’s not that serious”, “Albert said he is 100% healthy”, and “I saw pictures of him on Twitter doing squats, his back is fine now.” Let’s just all be reasonable and say that none of us know what the long term condition of Albert’s back is. We don’t know if it’s 100% healthy and no more likely to get injured next year as any other NFL player or if he has a degenerative condition that will progressively get worse and worse until it causes him to retire. We don’t know. We haven’t seen his X-Rays. Of course Albert and his agent are going to say its fine, they want to sign a big, fat, long term contract. It’s also in the Chiefs best interest to voice concerns about his back (even if they aren’t worried) in hopes of driving his asking price down. So I don’t see any point in debating if Albert’s back is fine or a problem, because it’s all speculation.

I will say, once again, that if they feel his back is fine then they should sign him long term and put an end to the Luke Joeckel draft speculation once and for all. That is what I’m hoping for. I think most of you regular readers are already aware that I am firmly in the “Draft Geno Smith” camp at this point.

However, I do want to discuss what might happen if Albert’s back is deemed to be too risky by the Chiefs organization. As much as we’d all like to brush his injury aside, re-signing Albert with serious questions about his back could be a huge mistake for KC. Look at this last season with the Chargers and Jared Gaither. Jared Gaither missed the entire 2010 season with a bad back. Then in 2011 he signed with our own Chiefs where he never started a game and was released after ten weeks. He then signed with SD and started their final 5 games and looked great. So they signed him to be their starting left tackle for last season. Guess what happened after only 4 games though? That’s right, his season ended with back problems and the Chargers were left with a huge hole at LT which caused problems for their offense all season long. That’s the thing with these back injuries, a guy can be healthy for a while but eventually it could come back to bite you. Gaither looked great at the end of the 2011 season and I’m sure Chargers fans were clamoring to re-sign him the same way KC fans are clamoring to re-sign Albert now. Albert could be able to play a game today, but that doesn’t mean there might not be long term concerns about his back. Granted Gaither had a much bigger history of back problems than Albert currently has, but KC should do their due diligence in checking out his back before committing a lot of years, money, and the safety of their next starting QB to him.

Finding a left tackle is important for any team, but this offseason it is especially important for KC because it will shape what they do in the draft. Many like myself would like to see them take a QB with the first pick. However, if they don’t like what they see when they look at Albert’s back then it will be hard to pass up Luke Joeckel at #1 overall when he seems to be the consensus best player on the board. Do I want them to pick Joeckel? No, I don’t, but if they don’t feel they can trust Albert’s health then I would understand it. Especially since there doesn’t appear to be anyone that they could draft in the 2nd round that could walk in and start at LT on day one.

There are only three LT prospects that most agree could be starters as rookies: Joeckel, Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher, and Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson. All three are now seen as early to mid first round picks. So if they are looking for a new LT for next season the only pick in the draft that they could fill it with is their first round pick. Otherwise, they would have to look to free agency.

In Green Bay (where new GM John Dorsey comes from) they didn’t sign big name free agents. They built through the draft almost exclusively (Charles Woodson being the one exception). So going out and signing a LT like Jake Long would be out of character for our new GM. It could happen, but it seems less likely than drafting one to me. There are a few other LTs that could hit free agency if they don’t agree to new deals with their current teams. Those names include Atlanta’s Sam Baker, the Giants’ William Beatty, the Saints Jermon Bushrod, and the Broncos’ Ryan Clady. None of those players will come cheap (although all will probably be cheaper than Jake Long). So the question again is if Albert’s back is a problem, do you see an answer in free agency? Long may be available, but he’ll be VERY expensive and has some injury problems of his own. The other players may not even hit the open market. I just don’t see a great (or likely) solution in free agency and I certainly don’t like the idea of drafting a QB at #1 overall and protecting his blind side with Donald Stephenson.

So needless to say I’m anxious to see what happens with KC and Branden Albert. If they don’t re-sign him, I will assume it’s because of health concerns, not because they just want to pass on their own solid LT to draft another one. I’m thinking that before we get our answer on who the Chiefs QB will be, we will probably get the answer to what is going on with Albert. That answer could very well tip their hand on what they will do early in the draft. It should be very interesting.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jul 24, 2012; Dallas, TX, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith speaks to reporters during Big 12 Media Day at the Westin Galleria. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you might have noticed that a few Kansas City Chiefs fans like the idea of drafting West Virginia QB Geno Smith with the first overall pick. We now have officially heard that this is exactly what Geno Smith would like too. Smith is down in New Orleans (along with most of the football universe) for the Super Bowl and made the rounds on radio row today. I’ve listened to three of the interviews he did and in each of them he specifically mentioned that he wanted to go #1 overall to Kansas City.

Now, this should surprise no one. Smith wants to be the first overall draft pick because of the money and recognition that comes with it. If Jacksonville had the #1 overall pick I’m sure he’d be saying the same thing about them. Still, it’s the first time we’ve heard him go on record as saying that he wants to go to KC and that he feels he is worthy of the #1 pick. That is something that none of the prospects at the Senior Bowl were willing to do. Say what you want about Geno, but he is clearly winning the PR battle for being seen as the #1 QB prospect. The PR battle won’t mean diddly-poo if NFL GMs and head coaches aren’t impressed with his performance on the field, but I like the fact that he is confident enough to say that he’s “that guy”.

I recommend listening to one or all of the interviews below regardless of if you are a Geno fan or a sceptic. He comes off as very well spoken, but also as someone that is very hungry to prove himself. The first interview is with KC sports radio 810′s Soren Petro. If you’re only going to listen to one, make it the one. The highlight is when Geno is asked about playing in KC:

“I understand the Chiefs are in the position where they possibly need a quarterback. They need someone who can help that franchise out. Not to bag on any guys there, it just is what it is. I believe I am that guy. With that position comes a lot of responsibility and a lot of hard work, which I’m willing to put in day in and day out. My goal is to be the best at whatever I do. I want to be the best in the league and I want to be a Hall of Famer. I want to work to get there no matter which team picks me. It would be great to be in the Kansas City red.”

He’s also asked about his sideline demeanor during some of WVU’s tough loses and why he skipped the Senior Bowl. It’s definitely worth a listen.

KC’s 810 Interview

Geno was also on a SD radio station. Even on a station of an AFC West rival he still didn’t hesitate to make it known that he wants to go to KC.

SD Radio Interview

Finally, a shorter (but national) CBS Radio interview where he tells the host:

“I do want to be a part of that Chiefs organization.”

CBS Interview

If you still just can’t get enough Geno OR maybe you think Geno is too full of himself for saying he should go #1 overall, I highly recommend this interview from the Scott Van Pelt show from before this last season started. In it he is honest and humble enough to admit that his stats are inflated by the system they run and the big play ability of his WRs. I thought it was impressive to hear a QB be that straight forward.

Preseason SVP Show Interview

I definitely agree with Geno. It would be great to see him in Kansas City red.

It’s that time of year again, when we all scour every mock draft we can find and endlessly ponder and argue about what the Chiefs should do once April 25^th rolls around.

Everyone has an opinion, most formed forged by a mix of personal preferences, tape study, and a survey of mocks and expert commentary. The problem is that draft science is far from a real science and Mel Kiper Jr. is not god. In fact, the man is our creation – he exists as a result of our obsession and boredom this time of year, and don’t get me wrong, I listen to his podcast, read his articles and scan through all of his mocks. Still, that is far from meaning that the Chiefs should take his advice on Draft day.

The big theme of this round of draft chatter is about how none of the QB’s are worthy of the first overall pick so therefore the Chiefs should steer clear of them with their first selection, choosing instead one of the standout pass-rushers or linemen.

Perhaps it’s my background as a journalist, but I hate groupthink and that includes the conventional wisdom that builds up around this time every year and then gets shattered by the guys actually making the decisions. Let’s be clear, regardless of whatever the self-styled draft scientists say, the player that is worth the Chiefs 1^st pick is the player most likely to make the team better, Kiper’s big board be damned.

To me, it is obvious that this player is whoever the Chiefs deem to be the best quarterback prospect available. I believe that player to be Geno Smith, but what John Dorsey thinks is far more important than my amateur evaluation. In the coming weeks I will go through and detail why the Chiefs shouldn’t pick each individual other prospect that the so-called experts have mocked to them, but for now, I just want to point out that Dorsey has a much better track record than the “experts” when it comes to drafting quality players.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s compare the Packers’ 1^st-round picks since 2005 with what the scientists wanted them to choose:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Pick #: 28

Result: Jury Still Out. Perry started five games this season and racked up a couple of sacks, but couldn’t stay healthy and finished the year on injured reserve with a wrist injury.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Pick #: 32

Result: Jury Still Out. I know it seems like a cop-out, but Sherrod has also seen limited time due to injury. He broke both the tibia and fibula in his leg during the team’s stunning loss to the Chiefs in 2011 and hasn’t been back on the field since. Before then, he started five games giving up no sacks but generating concern in Green Bay about his grasp of the fundamentals.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2010: T Bryan Bulaga

Pick #: 23

Result: High-end starter. Drafted late in the round, Bulaga has played right tacklke for three years “near a Pro Bowl level” and will get a shot at playing left tackle in 2013, according to the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2009: B.J. Raji

Pick #: 9

Result: Franchise player. Raji is a major force at his position and a difference-maker in games.

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

2009: LB Clay Mathews

Pick #: 26

Result: Franchise player. Ditto for Matthews. 42.5 sacks since being drafted. ‘Nuff said.

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2007: DT Justin Harrell

Pick #: 16

Result: Bust due to injury. There is an odd theme to injury being the bane of the Packers’ most promising young players, but it was again the case here. He was cut in 2011 after four disappointing seasons, which the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel summed up thusly: “Harrell never quite had a chance to cash in on his potential as injuries robbed him each season.” Still, he was drafted with a torn bicep suffered in college and was a risky pick on the behalf of the Packers’ front office.

2006: OLB A.J. Hawk

Pick #: 5

Result: High-end starter. ESPN insider describes him as: “an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is an instinctive player who understands angles and how to the leverage the football. He has improved attacking the line of scrimmage being more physical on contact. He is solid as a zone coverage defender but may get exposed in combination man schemes.”

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

2005: QB Aaron Rodgers

Pick #: 24

Result: Living legend. A-Rodg probably has to get another Super Bowl victory to punch his ticket to Canton, but he is one of the best three quarterbacks playing this game right now, possibly the very best.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

All and all, not a bad haul for eight first-round picks – one bust, two high-end starters, two franchise players, and one superstar that will define this generation for the team. I don’t need to remind you of what the Chiefs got themselves through these years, but suffice to say it is significantly less stellar.

How did the experts do? Well, this is what Kiper, king of the draftniks, wanted Green Bay to do all of these years:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Ok, this one was sort of obvious. Green Bay needed a pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews and Perry was projected to be the only one available at this spot.

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Ditto. Also shows that these iffy picks were eminently popular.

2010:  G Mike Iupati

Real pick #: 17 by San Francisco

Result: High-end starter. Scouts Inc. has him ranked as the 49ers’ 6^th best player.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2009: CB Malcom Jenkins

Real pick #: 14 by New Orleans

Result: Good starter. The Saints moved him to free safety where he shows good overall skills on that dreadful defense but hasn’t been a difference maker. He has four interceptions in four seasons.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2008: CB Antoine Cason

Real pick #: 27 by San Diego

Result: High-end starter. He gives up big plays, but is overall still a solid d-back. His Madden 13 overall rating was 86, which is pretty dern good.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2007: RB Marshawn Lynch

Real pick #: 12 by Buffalo

Result: High-end starter. Lynch is a borderline franchise player and definitely would have been a good pick for Green Bay if Buffalo hadn’t snatched him four picks earlier. It’s also important to note, however, that Lynch was a trouble-maker who washed out for his first team, which very well could have been the Packers instead of the Bills.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2006: A.J. Hawk

Right again! Rival expert Todd McShay had the Packers taking TE Vernon Davis. Now that would be scary.

2005: S/OLB (?) Thomas Davis

Real pick #: 14 by Carolina

Result: Mediocre player. Davis’ biggest problems lately have been health. He only played nine games in three seasons from 2009 to 2011 and didn’t stand out in 15 starts in 2012, picking up 68 tackles, no sacks and one interception for the Panthers.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

So matched up against the real Green Bay front office, Kiper would have gotten for them four high-end starters plus one good and one mediocre player vs. one superstar, two franchise players, two high-end starters and a bust. That, of course is what conventional wisdom brings – low-risk moves that pay off but make no home runs.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Was 24 the right spot for Aaron Rodgers to be drafted? Well, we know now that it definitely was not. Instead, Alex Smith was taken 1^st overall that year followed by RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cedric Benson, RB Cadillac Williams and CB Pacman Jones. Why? Well, it was a strong running back draft class, just like this is a strong draft for defensive front-seven players.

This is why the “best player available” philosophy is always so misunderstood. Best player available doesn’t mean “next player on Kiper’s Big Board” or “the consensus pick by the draft scientists.” It means finding a player with something special that you can envision helping your team, possibly leading it to the promised land. John Dorsey is much better at that part of the game than any of the talking heads, and has proven it.

Forget about what the crowd says would be “good value” for Chiefs #1 pick. Good value is going to be getting the best quarterback for the future we can. Trading Albert for a young tackle prospect is not good value. Picking up another overhyped D-lineman or undersized pass-rusher isn’t either.

In short, don’t listen to the chatter. Dorsey’s got this.

Jan 22, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey discusses with his scouts and coaches following the Senior Bowl South Squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Last week the NFL world descended on Mobile, Alabama for the first real event of the NFL offseason, the Senior Bowl. In the big picture, the Senior Bowl isn’t a definitive assessment of how players will do in the NFL or where they will get drafted. In fact, many of this year’s first round prospects didn’t even participate. However, it does allow us to get a look at some draft prospects directly under the microscope of NFL talent evaluators.

In many ways, the game itself is an afterthought. In case you’re wondering, this year the South defeated the North by a score of 21-16, but by the time the game kicked off most of the NFL GM’s, coaches, and scouts had already left town. Most NFL personnel men use the Senior Bowl to see how the players react in practice. These players are thrown together with players they’ve never met and have to learn terminology they’ve never heard before. How well do they pick it up? How do they do when going against other NFL prospects in practice drills knowing all 32 teams are watching their every move? Who goes hard every snap of practice and who takes some reps off? Who listens to the coaching, picks up the system, and shows real growth in only a few practices? Do any of these players show leadership in this short amount of time? This is where the Senior Bowl really is valuable in the evaluation process. Plus, teams actually get to sit down and talk to some of these players face to face. The game itself is less valuable than the hours of actual game footage they already have on these players from games that really counted.

So at the end of this piece I’ll give you the highlights of the game, but first I want to talk about what players helped themselves or hurt themselves during the week of practice leading up to the game since this is what most NFL teams base their evaluations on.

I should note that since I wasn’t in Mobile, these evaluations were collectively put together by reading and following several different people who were there and noticed similar things from the same players. So if only one guy commented on a prospect looking good, but the others did not, I didn’t include him. A player had to be mentioned by at least three sources to be included. Sources included:

CBS Sports’ NFLDraftScout.com: @RobRang and @dpbrugler
NFL.com: @Gil_Brandt, @MoveTheSticks, @RapSheet (and anything that Mike Mayock says)
Walterfootball.com: @walterfootball
thesidelineview.com: @caplannfl
NEPatriotsDraft.com: @NEPD_Loyko
DraftCountdown.com: @DraftCountdown
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller: @nfldraftscout
National Football Post: @RUSSLANDE and @MattBowen41
FirstRoundGrade.com: @FirstRoundGrade
No website, but NFL Philosophy is a must follow on Twitter: @NFLosophy

QUARTERBACKS:

I’m going to just be up front with you about the QBs at the Senior Bowl. Very little was done to change perceptions of this QB class. Before the week at the Senior Bowl if you asked NFL draft “experts” who the best QB there was you would have had some answer Arkansas’s Tyler Wilson, some say NC State’s Mike Glennon, and a few say Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib. After the Senior Bowl practices, nothing had changed. Some were saying Wilson looked the best, some were saying Glennon, and a few were saying Nassib. Basically, none of these guys did enough to change people’s minds. If you were a big fan of one of these three before, they didn’t do poorly enough (in practice) to scare you off and none of the other guys were SO good that they changed your mind. Depending on who you talk to, any one of those three gave the best performance and the other two had “moments” but still have flaws and inconsistencies. So it may end up that the biggest winners at QB from the Senior Bowl were Geno Smith and Matt Barkley since the other QBs failed to take advantage of the extra time in front of NFL personnel men. Most people still seem to think that Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib are worthy of somewhere between a mid to late 1st round pick or an early 2nd round pick. Wilson, as expected, was the best interview of the three but had the smallest hands at the weigh-in (has been known to lead to more fumbles for some QBs). Glennon did not impress at the weigh-in where he was described as “thin and undefined”.

Florida State’s EJ Manuel reinforced what people thought of him going in. He’s incredibly athletic and has a good arm but is very raw. Even his biggest supporters don’t seem to think he should play right away, needing several years of good coaching to develop him. He is seen as having intriguing upside and if a team already has a QB and feels they can wait for him to develop he could go higher than his current ability would justify (and his performance in the game itself will only add to this).

Oklahoma’s Landry Jones didn’t do much to help his case. He did make an occasional throw that got people’s attention, but the big knock on Jones is that he checks down WAY too much and is afraid to take chances downfield. Also, Jones didn’t handle it well when plays broke down and he had to improvise. This reinforces my thought of Oklahoma QBs, that they are very reliant on their college system and coaches and struggle to read defenses on their own. If you still aren’t scared of Jones, I read one practice report that said Jones’ check downs and inability to handle pressure reminded them of our own Matt Cassel. (Run away!)

Miami of Ohio QB Zac Dysert probably had the worst week of all the QBs. Going in, there were some people including him in the same tier of QBs as Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib. However, Dysert was very erratic all week and clearly struggled to get his timing down. Before the Senior Bowl Dysert may have been in the discussion for KC for someone to look at with their 2nd round pick, but after his work in Mobile I don’t think that will happen. The National Football Post’s Russ Lande went as far to say “This week Dysert did not look like a quarterback with the talent to start in the NFL.” Ouch!

KC Outlook:

The Chiefs obviously need a QB in the worst way. None of the prospects at the Senior Bowl did enough to jump up draft boards to where they would be considered the “best player available” at #1 which is what the Chiefs are claiming they will do with the pick. My concern is that if they don’t take a QB #1 overall (cough, Geno Smith, cough), I’m not sure I want them to take a QB at #34. Let’s say at least 3 QBs go in the first round, that means KC is committing the #34 overall pick (which should yield an impact player) to a QB that is essentially the leftovers in a weak QB class. I say if they find a QB that they think is clearly the best in this draft, take him at #1 (cough, Geno Smith, cough). Otherwise, go get a place holder like Alex Smith or Matt Flynn (I just threw up in my mouth a little) and then take a flier on a QB in the mid to late rounds. I know EJ Manuel will be the new flavor of the month because of his performance in the game, but he needs a lot of work and I hate to use the #34 pick on a QB that probably wouldn’t be able to compete for a starting job his rookie year. I just worry about turning the keys to the offense over to the 4th or 5th best QB in a weak QB class.

RUNNING BACKS:

The 2013 running back class lacks elite first round talent. So there wasn’t a lot of focus on the backs that were in Mobile this week. That having been said, there were three backs that made a very good impression this week. In no particular order:

Johnathan Franklin – UCLA – 5’10″ 201 lbs
Mike Gillislee – Florida – 5’11″ 207 lbs
Stepfan Taylor – Stanford – 5’9″ 216 lbs

All three of these backs were seen as mid round picks prior to the Senior Bowl, but their strong performances may put them in competition for the #3 RB spot in the draft behind UNC’s Giovani Bernard and Alabama’s Eddie Lacy.

The fact that Kenjon Barner of Oregon was the biggest name RB at the Senior Bowl, but was not one of the top three backs that people were talking about probably isn’t good for his draft stock. Also, Robbie Rouse of Fresno State, though explosive, measured under 5’6″ tall and got destroyed during blitz pick up drills. He isn’t big enough to be an every down back and if he can’t handle blitzing LBs then it will be hard for him to see the field as a third down back either.

KC Outlook:

If KC doesn’t re-sign Peyton Hillis, they will need to find a #2 RB to spell Jamaal Charles with. I think given that they have greater areas of need and the lack of elite runners in this draft that the earliest they would look at a RB would be the 3rd round. There is a good chance that a couple of those backs listed (or all three) could be available in the third and one or two may even still be an option in the 4th. If so, there is a possibility that one of those guys could fill the role of JC’s primary back up. So keep an eye on those three (Franklin, Gillislee, and Taylor) at the combine.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

If I had to pick a position group that had the best week during Senior Bowl practices it might have been the WRs. There were four WRs that seemed to drastically help their draft status during the week. All four were listed as standouts by multiple sources. Again, in no particular order:

Marquise Goodwin – Texas – 5’9″ 179 lbs
Chris Harper – Kansas State – 6’1″ 228 lbs
Quinton Patton – Louisiana Tech – 6’0″ 202 lbs
Markus Wheaton – Oregon State – 5’11″ 183 lbs

You’ll get differing opinions from different sources, but the general consensus seems to be that Goodwin and Wheaton would make great slot WRs and Harper and Patton would be solid #2 WRs for most teams (some think Wheaton could be a #2 as well). On the down side, Texas A&M WR Ryan Swope looked outclassed by the guys listed above before he had to drop out due to injury and is probably dropping down draft boards. Former Michigan QB turned WR Denard Robinson didn’t look very good at WR in Mobile and clearly needs a LOT of coaching before he can play that position at the NFL level. He still possesses explosive play making ability so someone will take that shot on him. For what it’s worth, Robinson had the biggest hands of any WR prospect despite measuring in at only 5’10″ and 196 lbs.

KC Outlook:

I think this draft sets up really well for KC to get some WR help in the 2nd or 3rd round. When John Dorsey was in GB they were able to find guys like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and Randall Cobb in a similar range. There are several WR draft prospects that could rank as the “best player available” for KC in those rounds. Of the guys at the Senior Bowl, if Patton (probably not likely after his great week) or Harper were on the board in round 3, I think KC might have to take a good look at them.

TIGHT ENDS:

With the two first round talent TEs both being juniors, there wasn’t a lot of talk about the TEs at the Senior Bowl. I don’t know that a single TE there will be drafted before the 3rd round. However, there were three TEs that showed the size/strength to be an effective blocker and enough athleticism to contribute in the passing game as well.

Nick Kasa – Colorado – 6’5″ 271 lbs
Vance McDonald – Rice – 6’2″ 262 lbs
Michael Williams – Alabama – 6’5″ 269 lbs

I wouldn’t say any of these three were “stars” during the week of practice, but I think all three showed enough upside to warrant a mid round pick in April.

KC Outlook:

If both Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss could be relied upon to stay healthy then KC would be in good shape at TE. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. Moeaki has a lengthy injury history dating back to college and there is some concern that Boss’s concussion issues could cause him to retire. You add to that the fact that the TE position is an important part of Andy Reid’s West Coast Offense and it seems that KC may need to add a quality option at TE this offseason. Given the ability of the three guys mentioned above to contribute both as a blocker and pass catcher I think any of the three could be an option for KC in the mid rounds.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

If the WRs weren’t the most impressive group at the Senior Bowl, it would be because the offensive linemen beat them out. It’s not that the offensive line had a huge number of guys generating buzz, but possibly the two guys that impressed the most the entire week were both offensive tackles.

Eric Fisher – Central Michigan – 6’7″ 305 lbs
Lane Johnson – Oklahoma – 6’6″ – 302 lbs

Entering the week, Fisher was seen as a mid to late 1st round pick and Johnson a borderline first round guy. After just a few practices the two are now both viewed as guys that will likely go in the top 15 picks. No one else on the offensive line generated anywhere near as much buzz as those two, but there were several other guys that did well for themselves.

DJ Fluker – Alabama – 6’5″ 355 lbs
David Quessenberry – San Jose St. – 6’5″ 294 lbs
Brian Schwenke – California – 6’3″ 307 lbs
Larry Warford – Kentucky – 6’3″ 333 lbs

Fluker is a massive RT prospect. He isn’t the world’s best pass protector, but his long arms, freakish 87″ wingspan, and impressive size make his a potential mauler in the run game. Teams looking for a RT that can step in on day one will likely target Fluker. Quessenberry played OT in college but will need to add some bulk in the NFL. The real selling point on Quessenberry is that not only does he show some long term upside, he’s versatile enough to play multiple spots on the line so he would have great value as a back up while he was developing. Schwenke did well enough for himself that he may even challenge to be the 2nd C off the board after Alabama’s Barrett Jones. Finally, Warford quietly lived up to his reputation for being a mauler on the inside. He will likely be the #3 G in the draft behind Alabama’s Chance Warmack and UNC’s Jonathan Cooper.

Unfortunately, there were also some linemen that hurt their draft stock as well. Notre Dame center Braxton Cave was repeatedly dominated by the interior defensive linemen. Wisconsin OT Ricky Wagner struggled a lot with pass protection. Virginia OT Oday Aboushi disappointed some scouts with how he looked in practice during most of the week. Syracuse OT Justin Pugh, although looking solid at times, measured in with very short arms, to the extent that many think he will have to move inside to G and which could cause him to slide come April. Similarly, Kyle Long of Oregon measured a little short in the arms as well. He missed several practices with an illness, but did play in the game (and did pretty well).

KC Outlook:

With Fisher and Johnson moving into solid first round range, Fluker being strictly a RT, and the other OT prospects (Aboushi, Pugh, and Long) sliding a little bit, it appears that if Kansas City doesn’t re-sign Brandan Albert that their only option of drafting a starting LT may be at the #1 overall pick. I don’t like that idea, but it doesn’t appear there will be anyone available at #34 that should start at LT as a rookie. Of the other prospects that played well, I think Quessenberry and Schwenke could be mid round options to add depth to the interior of the offensive line.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN:

Ideally I would have split this into defensive linemen and linebackers, but there are two problems with that. First there’s the question of where do you put the DE/OLB pass rushers that could be considered either depending on the system a team runs. Second, if you put the pass rushers with the defensive line then there really wasn’t much to talk about in terms of LBs at the Senior Bowl. The top inside LB in Mobile was Alabama’s Nico Johnson, but he failed to impress during the week. In the entire front seven there were really only two guys that really improved their draft stock.

Datone Jones – DE – UCLA – 6’4″ 280 lbs
Brandon Williams – NT – Missouri Southern – 6’2″ 341 lbs

Jones was a physical specimen and terror on the field. He stopped the run well and was able to put pressure on the QB. I think Jones would be perfect as an attacking style 3-4 DE. Jones did so well that some are speculating that he may have jumped from a 2-3 round pick all the way up into the mid to late first round. Brandon Williams is a NT. A strong, stout, and surprisingly athletic one at that. Williams was an unknown to many before the Senior Bowl, but teams looking for a true NT for the center of their 3-4 may definitely target Williams.

Some of the biggest names in the front seven in Mobile had mixed reviews. BYU’s Ezekiel Ansah and SMU’s Margus Hunt both proved to be extreme physical specimens, but were very raw and in need of coaching out on the practice field. DTs John Jenkins from Georgia and Sylvester Williams from North Carolina flashed big time talent but would also disappear for stretches. Both of these two were already considered 1st round guys. They didn’t really hurt their stock, but I don’t know that they helped it either. Outside pass rusher Alex Okafor from Texas was much the same. He showed some explosion getting around the edge, but when the OTs got their hands on him he was often taken out of the play.

KC Outlook:

Early in the week I was excited about what I was hearing about Jones. However, as the week went on the reports were so good that it appears he may not be available when the Chiefs pick at #34. If he were to be there I think he could be exactly the kind of player that our DL has been lacking. A relentless motor type that is strong enough to stop the run and athletic enough to put pressure on the QB. At ILB KC could still target Nico Johnson, but it looks like he would strictly be a 2 down LB and would need to come off the field on clear passing downs. The only other ILB prospect from the Senior Bowl that KC may want to consider would be FSU’s Vince Williams who played well in the game itself.

DEFENSIVE BACKS:

The defensive backs were another group that had a strong showing during Senior Bowl practices. There were six defensive backs that seemed to help themselves the most, including several coming from smaller programs.

Robert Alford – CB – Southeast Louisiana – 5’10″ 186 lbs
Jonathan Cyprion – S – Florida International – 6’0″ 209 lbs
Leon McFadden – CB – San Diego State – 5’10″ 193 lbs
Jordan Poyer – CB – Oregon State – 6’0″ 182 lbs
Desmond Trufant – CB – Washington – 5’11″ 190 lbs
B.W. Webb – CB – William & Mary – 5’10″ 183

In terms of the CBs, Poyer and Trufant are probably in the top 5 at the position now while Alford, McFadden, and Webb proved themselves to be solid prospects that could go in rounds 3-5. Jonathan Cyprion earned very high praises from every single report coming out of Mobile. He’s probably one of the players that helped himself the most. Cyprion reportedly went 100% on every snap in practice, was very physical, and also showed some good coverage ability. He went from being a virtual unknown to many to a guy that could see his name called on day 2 of the draft.

KC Outlook:

I would be happy if KC ended up with any of the six players listed above. Trufant and Poyer could probably start as rookies, but KC would probably have to jump on one of them in the 2nd round after their strong showing in Mobile. The other three corners could be had later in the draft. They all three have starter upside but would probably need some time to develop. I’m really interested in Cyprion. If he was available in round 3 it would be a solid pick for KC. The reason I like it is because I think a Cyprion/Berry pairing would give the Chiefs a lot of options. Both are physical enough to play up in run support and athletic enough to drop into coverage.

THE GAME ITSELF:

Some of you may not agree with this, but as I mentioned before the game really doesn’t have much impact on a prospect’s draft status. If it did, the majority of NFL personnel wouldn’t be flying out of Mobile on Thursday. That said, I do want to address a few things. I’ll start with the QBs again. For the people saying that there isn’t a great QB in this draft class, the performances of guys that have been mocked in the first round like Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib didn’t exactly prove the naysayers wrong. Wilson in particular was disappointing for me. Yes, they are playing in a system that is new, with WRs that are new, but the defense isn’t exactly throwing a true NFL caliber attack at them either. At this point I feel like Geno Smith is KC’s only real hope for getting a QB at the #1 pick.

Obviously, EJ Manuel was the star of the show. His TD pass to Michael Williams was beautiful. He probably helped his draft stock more than any other QB prospect. As I mentioned above, I’m guessing that someone will fall in love with his upside and take him pretty high for a guy who is still so raw. The other thing he has going for himself is that he best fits the current trend of having a read-option QB out of all the QBs in this draft class. That having been said, I don’t think anyone should get SO excited about one good Senior Bowl performance that they start talking about Manuel as a QB that should be drafted to play right away as a rookie. Remember, guys like Charlie Frye and Pat White were Senior Bowl MVPs too. If you look at San Francisco’s handling of Colin Kaepernick, I think a similar timetable would be the earliest Manuel would be ready to play.

The other interesting player to me coming off the game itself is Ezekiel Ansah. Ansah started the week by impressing everyone at the weigh-in with how physically impressive he is. Then he followed that up with several days of very unimpressive practice where the general consensus was that this guy needed a TON of coaching. Then he shows up to the game itself and looks like arguably the most talented player on the field. There is no doubt whatsoever that Ansah has the sheer athleticism to make a major impact. The question is this, is Ansah another Jason Pierre-Paul that just needs some NFL coaching and he’ll turn into one of the better players in the league, or a Vernon Gholston where he never is able to translate his physical prowess into results on the field? I’m leaning towards the Pierre-Paul side, but I think there is enough questions to keep him from going in the top 10 where his physical talents may warrant.

Other players that got multiple praises for their performance in the game include Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Mike Gillislee, Sylvester Williams, Purdue DT Kawann Short, Vince Williams, and Robert Alford who played good coverage, racked up 5 tackles, and started the game off with an 88 yard kickoff return that set up the South’s opening TD.

Overall, it was an interesting week for draft die-hards like myself. If you can’t get enough draft talk and info I highly recommend following the guys I listed above as the sources for this post. I don’t agree with 100% of any of their takes, but when you take in all of their opinions combined you can usually get an idea for where prospects stand. Next stop, the combine.

Check out my other draft related posts:

2013 NFL Draft Big Board And The Kansas City Chiefs

Video: Geno Smith Is Worthy Of The #1 Pick

Chiefs First Round QB Quiz: Name That QB

Mike Glennon: A Possible “Plan B” For Chiefs QB

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a 2-14 season. They have a new head coach, a new general manager, and the first pick in the 2013 NFL draft. Given these circumstances, it’s understandable that KC fans have already put the 2012 season in the rear view mirror and are 100% focused on the offseason, especially the NFL draft. In fact, I would wager that most of you reading this are more interested in the upcoming Senior Bowl than you are in the Super Bowl match up of San Francisco and Baltimore.

The two biggest questions that most Chiefs fans have for Andy Reid and John Dorsey are intertwined. What will they do with the #1 overall pick and who are they going to get to play quarterback? There is a large number of KC fans (like myself) that are convinced that they should answer both questions at once by drafting Geno Smith #1 overall. However, others are not convinced that Smith is a player that warrants that high of selection. The real question then becomes what Reid and Dorsey think of Smith and the other players at the top of the 2013 draft. Both men have gone on record as saying they believe in taking the best player available and not reaching for a player because of positional need.

So these two key questions will ultimately be answered by how Reid and Dorsey construct their “Big Board” for the draft. No one knows what this big board will look like, but I thought for this week’s post I would try to give you a look at what others are saying in terms of how this draft class is lining up. I looked at 10 different big boards and then averaged them out to try and come up with a pre-Senior Bowl, pre-combine, master big board for this April’s draft. The rankings I used are from ESPN’s Scout’s Inc, CBS’s Rob Rang, our own Merlin’s DraftTek, WalterFootball, NFL Draft Countdown, NFL.com’s Gil Brandt, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, SB Nation, NEPatriotsDraft.com, and fftoolbox.com.

It’s not a perfect system since these lists ranged in length from 25-100 so not every prospect was rated on each list, but it still gives us a general consensus to see where prospects rank currently. Remember, this is not the order players are predicted to be drafted in, but a list of who these sources think are the best players regardless of position and team draft needs. Here are the top 49 players that received first round rankings from at least one of the sources listed above.

1. Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M
2. Star Lotulelei – DT – Utah
3. Bjoern Werner – DE/OLB – Florida St.
4. Jarvis Jones – OLB – Georgia
5. Damontre Moore – DE/OLB – Texas A&M
6. Chance Warmack – G – Alabama
7. Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama
8. Manti Te’o – ILB – Notre Dame
9. Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU
10. Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia
11. Johnathan Hankins – DT – Ohio St.
12. Dion Jordan – DE/OLB – Oregon
13. Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri
14. Keenan Allen – WR – California
15. Jonathan Cooper – G – North Carolina
16. Ezekiel Ansah – DE – BYU
17. Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan
18. Johnathan Banks – CB – Mississippi St.
19. Alec Ogletree – ILB – Georgia
20. Sam Montgomery – DE/OLB – LSU
21. Tyler Eifert – TE – Notre Dame
22. Kenny Vaccaro – S – Texas
23. Johnathan Jenkins – DT – Georgia
24. Jesse Williams – DT – Alabama
25. Matt Barkley – QB – USC
26. Barrett Jones – OL – Alabama
27. Tavon Austin – WR – West Virginia
28. Shariff Floyd – DT – Florida
29. Tyler Wilson – QB – Arkansas
30. Alex Okafor – DE/OLB – Texas
31. Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford
32. Cordarrelle Patterson – WR – Tennessee
33. Giovani Bernard – RB – North Carolina
34. Terrance Williams – WR – Baylor
35. DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson
36. Xavier Rhodes – CB – Florida St.
37. DJ Fluker – OT – Alabama
38. Sylvester Williams – DT – North Carolina
39. Matt Elam – S – Florida
40. Eric Reid – S – LSU
41. Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee
42. Robert Woods – WR – USC
43. Kawann Short – DT – Purdue
44. Arthur Brown – LB – Kansas St.
45. Kevin Minter – ILB – LSU
46. Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma
47. David Amerson – CB – NC State
48. Tony Jefferson – S – Oklahoma
49. Corey Lemonier – DE/OLB – Auburn

I can pretty much promise you that by the time the Senior Bowl, combine, and private work outs are over the Chiefs own big board will look quite a bit different from this list. However, the elite prospects at the very top of the first round don’t usually come out of nowhere. So I think it’s probably safe to say that the first overall pick is someone in the top 10 of this list. So let’s look at those 10 guys through “Chiefs colored glasses”.

Of the top 10 prospects on this list four of them are outside pass-rushers that would play OLB in KC’s 3-4 defense. The Chiefs currently have both of those spots filled with above average NFL starters in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. I know they say they’ll take the best player available, but unless Reid and Dorsey plan on trading Tamba I think one of these pass rushers would have to grade out SO MUCH better than the other top prospects in order for a team with so many areas to upgrade to take a player at one of the few places they are currently set. So for the time being I am taking Werner, Jones, Moore, and Mingo off the table for KC’s #1 pick.

Next, despite Warmack being hailed as the best guard prospect to enter the draft in ages, I can’t see any team taking a guard first overall. Everyone raved about David DeCastro last season too and he was drafted 24th. Is Warmack SO much better than DeCastro that he should go 23 spots higher? I don’t think so. So I am taking Warmack off the list of possible picks for KC at first overall as well.

Next, between his poor play against an elite offensive line in the national championship game and the crazy dead girlfriend hoax drama I can’t see Kansas City even entertaining the idea of taking Te’o first overall now. Not to mention the fact that most believe that ILB isn’t a position that makes enough impact to justify drafting one that high, even if there wasn’t other questions about him.

So that leaves us with only 4 of the top 10 prospects left for consideration. Let’s address these four one at a time. I’ll start with Alabama CB Dee Milliner.

Milliner is the consensus best CB in this draft. He’s got good size at 6’1″ and 199 lbs. He’s a very physical corner and is an excellent tackler. His coverage skills are very good as well. That having been said, Milliner isn’t a ball hawk as he’s only totaled 2 INTs in each of his past 2 seasons at Alabama. His speed is good enough for the NFL, but he’s not a burner. I think Milliner is pretty much a lock to go in the top 10 picks, but his lack of big play ability would make him a hard sell for #1 overall. Taking Milliner there would be similar to taking Geno Smith #1 overall in that he’s the best player at his position, but may not rate out as high as guys like Joeckel and Lotulelei who most feel warrant the first overall pick. If Reid and Dorsey’s “best player available” mantra literally translates to the highest rated player on their board, then I don’t think it will be Milliner and if they are going to reach a few spots based on positional need it makes more sense to do it for a QB where the benefits of the pick working out are greater. I do think Milliner would make a lot of sense if KC was able to trade back a few spots but was still drafting in the top 10.

So, to sum up my thoughts on Milliner, great player, fits a need, probably won’t be the #1 overall pick, but is a candidate for KC if they trade back a few spots.

Next up, my man Geno Smith. I’m not objective here. I made a 14 minute long video that explained why he should be the #1 pick. There’s a link at the bottom of this post if you haven’t seen it and would like to check it out. Here’s my thought on if the Chiefs will actually take him. If they have Geno rated as a top 10 player as he is in these composite rankings, I think they take him. I know they are saying “best player available”, but if you have no QB and the best QB in the draft is one of the 10 best players available, you take him. QB is just that important, and I think Reid and Dorsey know that. If Geno is more like the 15-25th player on their board, I think they’ll pass, take one of these other players, and take a QB in the 2nd round. I honestly believe Geno will be the pick. I think he is the QB that impresses the most at the combine and workouts and Reid starts off in KC like he did with McNabb in Philly.

However, if I’m wrong then I think the pick is most likely one of the top two guys on these consensus rankings, Luke Joeckel or Star Lotulelei. Let’s start with Joeckel.

Luke Joekel is being hyped as the best LT prospect since Jake Long (who is also the last OT to go first overall). He is currently the consensus “best player available”, so given what Reid and Dorsey have said so far I think Joeckel has to be considered a strong candidate for #1 overall. I’ll be honest, I haven’t watched much of Joeckel, but several of the prospect evaluators that I respect the most seem very high on him and they would know better than I.

My take on Joeckel: If the Chiefs really don’t like any of the QBs that much I’ll be fine with the Joeckel pick, but not excited. Mainly because a great LT doesn’t assure you any playoff success. If you have a good QB to protect then they are great. If you have a mediocre QB then there is only so much a LT can do. Personally, I’d rather they resign Branden Albert and draft an impact player elsewhere (preferably QB).

Finally let’s talk about Star Lotulelei.

Most of you are going to hate what I am about to say. I think there is a strong chance that Lotulelei could be KC’s pick at #1 overall. I actually think that Lotulelei is a more likely pick than Joeckel given that KC has an opportunity to re-sign Albert. I know the idea of taking ANOTHER defensive lineman in the first round will make people want to pull their hair out, but Lotulelei is the real deal. I have a feeling that he may light up the combine similar to what Dontari Poe did last year with the difference being that he has the impressive game film to back it up. Last year people said that Poe’s size/strength/speed gave him the upside of a Haloti Ngata. Well, Star Lotulelei actually looks like Ngata on film, it’s impressive.

If KC doesn’t see a QB they like and resign Albert, I think Star is the pick. If Dontari Poe and Lotulelei both lived up to their freakishly high ceilings KC could have the most fearsome defensive front that the NFL has seen in a long time. They could pair them up with either Tyson Jackson (with a renegotiated contract) or a re-signed Ropati Pitoitua. I know a lot of KC fans wouldn’t like this pick, but in my opinion if we stay at #1 it would have the second biggest impact after taking a QB.

I don’t think we’ll have to wait until April 25th to know what KC is going to do. I think what they do with Albert, Dorsey, Jackson, Pitoitua, and possible QBs that they could bring in will give us a good idea of which of these prospects they are targeting.

For example:

If KC re-signs Albert, I think you can rule out Luke Joeckel (NOTICE: Please save your “they should move Albert to guard” comments, that’s NEVER going to happen, EVER).

If they restructure Tyson Jackson and re-sign either Dorsey or Pitoitua (I’m guessing Pitoitua since he’ll be cheaper and played for the Jets while Sutton was there) then I don’t think Lotulelei will be the pick.

If they trade for a Nick Foles, Matt Flynn, or Alex Smith then I don’t think they’ll go with a QB first overall.

So watch what the Chiefs do over the next month because I think it may just tip their hand on what they are planning to do with the first pick.

One final thought relating to my composite big board: If KC did take a QB first overall and didn’t have to draft one in the 2nd round, it appears that there might be some very good WRs and DBs that rate out right in the area where KC will be picking. Players like Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, Xavier Rhodes, and Eric Reid would all be great picks for KC in the 2nd round.

Regardless of what KC does make sure you tune in here to AA where we’ll keep you up to date on all the latest draft and free agency news.

Check out my other draft related posts:

Video: Geno Smith Is Worthy Of The #1 Pick

Chiefs First Round QB Quiz: Name That QB

Mike Glennon: A Possible “Plan B” For Chiefs QB

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

 Last time, we explored what to expect from, and what should be expected of, Jeff Allen this year. Moving forward with our examination of our newest offensive linemen, we turn our attention to Donald Stephenson.

Donald Stephenson only played two years in college which some people are taking as a cause for concern. But when he did play, it was at the position on the line with perhaps the least margin for error: blind-side tackle. I say “blind-side tackle” because LT is only the toughest position when the QB’s right-handed (okay: so that’s the case, like, 99.5 percent of the time), but what makes it tough is not which side of the center you’re playing at, but the fact that the QB can’t see what’s coming from your direction and a failed block could result in huge consequences (ask Joe Thiesman).

At his time at Oklahoma, Stephenson logged over 100 knockdowns in each of his two years starting. For comparison, Jeff Allen averaged somewhere in the mid-80s per year over a four year span in college. Additionally, at the NFL level, 100 knockdowns is generally the benchmark for OLs to hit if they wish to be in serious contention for a Pro Bowl berth.

A knockdown is almost as simple as it sounds like… almost. A knockdown is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground, and there are two types of knockdown. The first type, which doesn’t really have a special name, is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground and move on to take on a still-standing defender. The second type is called a “pancake” and consists of, as you’re knocking a player down, following him to the ground, landing on top of him, and staying put (effectively removing any chance that defender had of making a stop for the rest of that play, since, if you can’t get up, you likely can’t tackle/sack anybody, you can’t defend/intercept any passes and you can’t force/recover any fumbles).

Regular knockdowns are preferable for running plays when the OL is serving as a lead blocker. In this case, when a defender is knocked down, by the time he gets back up the play is long past him. Pancakes are best reserved as the type of knockdown to use in a pass play. As I previously stated, if you can’t get up, you can’t get sacks/interceptions/etc. Knockdowns are one of few stats kept track of for OLs throughout their football careers (you’ll also see stats for sacks allowed, QB hurries allowed and TD-resulting blocks). When you hear “knockdown” just remember that this number includes pancakes. Like all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares, all pancakes are knockdowns but not all knockdowns are pancakes.

Essentially, Stephenson did very well in neutralizing players in large part due to this ability. To boot, the Oklahoma line as a whole only gave up 11 sacks last season… as a whole!

So, if Stephenson played so well, why did he only start for two years in college? When Stephenson arrived in Oklahoma he found himself behind junior OT Trent Williams on the depth chart. The same Trent Williams that the Redskins chose as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. When Williams arrived in Oklahoma in 2006 he found himself in a similar quandary sitting behind OT Branndon Braxton. Fortunately (for Williams) Braxton went down to injury partway into the 2006 season and Williams was afforded the opportunity to showcase his abilities as a freshman. The next season the coaches split snaps between Williams and Braxton. Stephenson wasn’t quite so fortunate to receive a similar opportunity; following Braxton’s departure, Williams did not miss college playing time with the exception of the last regular season game of his senior year.

We should probably give Stephenson a little more attention than we have been, don’t you think?

Stephenson is set to be a “swing” tackle this year. If Albert or Winston need a breather, Stephenson will be our guy. And believe it or not, swing tackle is one of the tougher jobs on the offensive line. Don’t believe me? You’ve seen a tackle come out of his stance before; one of the first things he does is flip his hips to the outside. Get out of your chair and try it. To spare you some embarrassment (or at least an explanation to your co-workers), I won’t ask you to get down in a three-point stance; you can start off in a position that still has a good bend in the knees and waist. Now, open your hips out to the right (like a RT) bringing your arms up like you’re blocking. Now, try it opening your hips out to the left. One of those felt more natural and fluid than the other, didn’t it?* This plays a large part of why great RTs can make lousy LTs, and vice versa; you’re trying to get your body to do something that just doesn’t feel right.

* It did.

In order to excel in the swing tackle role (truly excel), Stephenson will have to rep this over and over and over again until opening his hips one way feels just as natural and fluid as opening his hips the other way to realize similar success at both positions (LT and RT). Thankfully, his success in college at LT seems to indicate that he’s well versed in opening his hips to the left, so Cassel won’t have to worry much about his blindside when Albert needs a break. How well Stephenson will do when Winston needs a break is the bigger question mark right now.

I am a huge proponent of the “lockup Albert to a long-term deal” crowd, and I think Winston is a Godsend, but Stephenson will be a significant contributor. As Paddy recently pointed out, Albert is ranked highly in pass protection, and Winston in run blocking. If Stephenson can spell our players for a stretch of plays they’re less successful at (Albert on runs and Winston on passes), it’ll keep our starters fresh and read to dominate even more on the plays they’re best at. That would be a significant contribution.

So is Stephenson a starter this year? No. Will he be a starter for the Chiefs in the long-term? Not if Pioli does his job and extends Albert’s contract. But he will play an important part in our line’s success this year, and that is worth a third-round pick.

Well played, Pioli, well played…

Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

It is draft day and the rumors are flying faster than we can keep up with.

The latest comes from Peter King of SI.com. Kings thinks the Minnesota Vikings plan to stay at #3 and take OT Matt Kalil.

There was a report floating around that the Chiefs were interested in trading up to nab Kalil. I never believed it and it appears King doesn’t see that scenario playing out either. In fact, he doesn’t see a lot of teams trading up at all.

This draft is 75 picks deep with potential year-one rookie starters, and I’m hearing no strong evidence that any team is inclined to climb this high to blow it all on one player.

The one exception here, at No. 4 with Cleveland, could be Alabama running back Trent Richardson. But I look for Minnesota to stay put, ignore the bleatings of people like me who say the Vikes should take a corner here, and draft USC tackle Matt Kalil.

I tend to agree with King here. Unless you are trying to get a guy who you believe is a franchise QB, which in this case would be Ryan Tannehill, moving up far for one guy makes no sense. We could see some short trade ups in the top 10, maybe one or two spots but it is hard to see a team betting the farm on one guy who isn’t even a QB.

If the Chiefs don’t believe Tannehill is a franchise QB then I want them moving back. I especially want them moving back if they think a guy like Branden Weeden is a franchise QB. I’d be fine with the Chiefs sliding back into the 20s, picking up an extra second or thirdrd along the way. If they did that, I’d be ok with them reaching on Weeden in the first to ensure they got their man because they’d have more action in the second round thanks to moving back.

What do you think, Addicts? Is the eventual first round draft pick for the Chiefs going in the top 15 or will KC get their man significantly later?

Okay, before you read any further, I want you to try and put your preconceived notions on what the Chiefs should do with the #11 pick aside and keep an open mind.

Up until now, the debate on what the Chiefs should do with their pick has basically come down to (in no particular order) taking David DeCastro, Dontari Poe, or Luke Kuechly, or trading the pick. Let’s take trading the pick out of the equation and for this debate. Let’s pretend KC doesn’t have an offer on the table that is worth it and so they are going to be making the pick.

Almost everyone and their mother is mocking one of the three players I previously mentioned to the Chiefs. I’m not just talking about Chiefs fans either, most “experts” (and I use that term loosely) are mocking these same three players as well. Now if you look at enough mock drafts you can find some variety, but I feel safe saying that around 90 percent of the mocks out there have KC taking one of those three players.

I’m here to offer you an alternative plan.
(more…)

Well, Chiefs fans, today is Valentine’s Day, and that means only one thing: margaritas.

However, while it might be our tradition to spend every Valentine’s Night at a Mexican restaurant (the tacky-red-paper-hearts-per-person quotient is much lower), I realize everyone approaches this fake holiday in his or her own special way. Even back in third grade—which, frankly, is where the celebration of this day should begin and end—when societal norms and, more specifically, Mrs. Brockmeyer demanded that we give paper valentines to everyone in class, we had to decide which valentines best represented us, as well as which of our secret crushes would receive the more risqué—and risky—messages.*

*Was “You rock, Valentine!” coming on way too strong?

Just as a set of perforated Transformers valentines (“Let’s roll, Valentine! You’re a Mega Friend!”) perfectly represented who I was back in 1984, today’s Kansas City Chiefs fans need valentines that speak to us, that capture the angst and occasional joy of this tumultuous relationship in which we’ve entangled ourselves. And among all the boxes of Harry Potter, Shrek, and Smurfs valentines at the local CVS, I couldn’t find any. So—you can guess what’s coming next—I had no choice but to make a few of my own.

Feel free to print, perforate, and share as you wish. Perhaps—just like the Indianapolis Colts on draft day—you’ll get lucky.

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So, that happened. Another NFL season (and postseason) has come and gone. Forgive my lack of enthusiasm as I watched the New York Giants win the Super Bowl for the fourth time in my lifetime, and the New England Patriots lose it for the fourth time (to go along with their three championships). In fact, in the 38 Super Bowls I have lived through (not that I really remember Super Bowls IX through, oh, XV or XVI), 27 different teams have participated. Not one of them has been the Kansas City Chiefs—their Super Bowl appearances live in other people’s memories.

But the good news, of course, is that as soon as Tom Brady’s last “Hail Myra” pass landed incomplete in the end zone and Super Bowl XLVI officially came to an end, the Chiefs were immediately back in contention. All eyes, and odds, are now focused on 2012-13, and the earliest probabilities are already in. The MGM Grand Las Vegas and at least one leading gaming site have opened betting season with the Chiefs as 50-1 shots to win Super Bowl XLVII, which is as good or better than 13 other teams. Not quite as favorable as the 40-1 odds they were given a year ago, but much better than the one-in-100 chance set before the Chiefs’ 2010 AFC West Championship season.

In other words, the odds-makers don’t really know what they’re doing, at least at this stage—out of last year’s top five preseason favorites, three didn’t even make the playoffs. But for fans, it’s amusing to see just how favorably (or not) our team’s prospects are marked in the books of various distinguished sports-betting establishments, and ask ourselves, “What if…?”

Last year at this time, I made a list of the XLVI reasons the Chiefs could win it all. A number of those “reasons” are now no longer with the team or else tore up their knees within the first few weeks of the season. So I’ve learned my lesson—and I’m not about to try to come up with XLVII reasons now. After all, so many things can happen: the most important players can get hurt, the coach can go crazy, the GM can go crazier…I mean, what are the odds?

Ah. Good question. Why don’t we find out?

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As any respectable quantum astrophysicist will tell you, a black hole is an object with sufficient density that the force of gravity prevents anything from drifting beyond it; its defining feature is the appearance of an event horizon—a boundary in space-time through which matter and light can only pass inward towards the mass of the black hole. Nothing, not even light, can escape. (I, of course, did not learn this from any quantum astrophysicist. I cut-and-pasted it from Wikipedia.)

The Black Hole also happens to be the first movie I can remember that both enthralled and terrified me (according to Wikipedia, it came out in theaters when I was only five years old*). I have no recollection whatsoever as to what the movie was about,** but I remember being very frightened by the violent, faceless drones and morbidly fascinated by the concept that there was a place somewhere out there that could swallow everything that got near it. It gave me nightmares. I still can’t believe that this was a Disney movie.***

*Not that Wikipedia necessarily knows how old I am or when I was born…though, yeah, probably.

**If you have three minutes and twenty-nine seconds to kill, watch this trailer and tell me if you have any clue in hell as to what this movie is about either.

***Though come to think of it, two other traumatic moments of my early childhood involved seeing Bambi’s mother get shot and watching Dumbo get taunted mercilessly because he was different. WTF, Disney?

I mention all this because a black hole—and you probably realize that I am now referring to that Black Hole—is precisely what this Chiefs team and its fans need right now: an inescapable force to pull us in and push us forward into a situation both fascinating and infuriating (like this guy).

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Clipped from: nflmocks.com (share this clip)

st round pick: Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

Jon Baldwin is a massive wide receiver with great size hands and natural ability. The problem with Jon Baldwin is that he lacks the production of a first round wide receiver, and he needs refinement in his route running. Jon Baldwin never had 60 catches or more than 8 touchdowns in any one season. With how good that Panthers running game has been, and how big Baldwin is, one might assume he’d be able to rack up the TD numbers in the red-zone but that’s not the case. In the end though teams had to decide whether or not Baldwin’s lack of production was more to do with the offensive system and Quarterback play of the Panthers or something more.

Philosophy: A

From nflmocks.com (share this quote)

Check out the entire report card over at NFL Mocks.

Here we are, Kansas City Chiefs fans, at what is supposed to be the midpoint between the end of last season and the beginning of the next. I am falling into my usual mid-offseason crisis—however, this time there’s no guarantee of recovery. There may still be faint light at the end of the tunnel, the tunnel that will hopefully lead out onto the field at Arrowhead Stadium on Opening Weekend in September. But as we await our next day in court—and with the ominous first comments from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8^th Circuit, it ain’t a’lookin’ so good—we don’t know how long the tunnel is going to be…

Here’s what we do know: The 2010 season turned out to be one hell of a party. And as the party wore on into the wee hours of the playoffs, I remember that everything was going great… The Chiefs were in the postseason at home for the first time since the early-mid George W. Bush administration. It was a sell-out crowd. The temperature at game time was a balmy 20 degrees Fahrenheit. In the first quarter, the Chiefs were keeping it close against the favored Baltimore Ravens. Excitement was building. And then, I distinctly remember, this happened.

But from that point on, everything became a blur. And now we’re left to piece together how exactly we got to where we are today… and whether we’ll ever find our friend Doug.*

*Actually, there is no player currently on the Chiefs roster named Doug, the last one being Doug Terry in 1995. There is, however, a Dwayne—who has, on occasion, gone missing.

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The atmosphere at the NFL Draft is always charged with excitement but as I sat in Radio City Music Hall awaiting the start of the 2011 edition, I noticed that something seemed a bit off. There was a different energy in the air. There was a restlessness among those in the crowd. The usual excited chatter seemed to have been replaced by a slight murmur of aggression. I wasn’t the only one who noticed it. A fellow media member turned and told me that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell had been heckled by an angry fan earlier in the day at an “NFL Play 60” event held in New York City’s Central Park.

“They are going to boo him right out of the building,” he said.

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Chiefs fans, the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books, and right now even with all of the lockout drama in the NFL playing out like a mash up of “Law and Order” and “”Teen Mom” it’s hard to not be excited about the group of new young players acquired this past week.  I have never been someone that follows or talks about the draft each year at great length, but I think we learned a great deal about the Pioli/Haley regime with this draft.  Much of what we learned led us to the wise man conclusion reached by Socrates so many thousands of years ago: We truly know nothing.

I will be up front and honest here.  I am not claiming to be all knowing and all seeing.  I, like many of you, figured that this year we will see a lot more of the same.  I figured we would go for “high character” guys with lots of college leadership that seemed to be “safe picks.”  I figured we would draft a bunch of team captains that filled specific needs, but not take a lot of risks.*  I was in the draft chat, doing my best not to sound like an idiot since I know very little about the players involved and how the inner-workings of the draft play out besides what I have learned from the draft posts on this site, when BAM!  Not only do the Chiefs reach some on their first pick, but they go for a huge wide receiver with lots of potential and a bad rap for character flaws.  As everyone tried to digest what had just happened with the Ravens not picking and the Chiefs basically running up on stage with their card I began to realize just how little I understood the plan for the Kansas City Chiefs, and then I became very excited to see just where this team was going.

*By risks I do not mean players with unseen talent, but rather players that would not fall in line easily, and that despite having great physical talent would ultimately be a risk because they couldn’t wrap their noodle around what the team and organization were trying to do.

Where this team is going, and Chiefs 2011 Beast Mode after the jump.

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The Chiefs new QB looks pretty good in red.

The 2011 NFL Draft is in the books and most KC fans agree the Chiefs did pretty well for themselves. I always find it interesting to see how so called “experts” grade out our team’s draft. I never put a whole lot of stock in it, for a couple of reasons. First, these “experts” are often wrong on what players are going to do well and which will flop, and second, they rarely know what our team really needs as well as those of us that watch (and re-watch) every snap of every game. Here are a few early grades I’ve seen:

Pete Prisco of CBS Sports: C-
Rob Rang of CBS Sports: C-
Mel Kiper of ESPN: C+
Kerry J. Byrne of SI.com: B+
Adam Caplan of Fox Sports: B+
Eric Frenz of Bleacher Report: B-
Walter of WalterFootball.com: A-

So as you can see, the Chiefs are scoring everywhere from a low C up to an A. So how do we go about evaluating this class in a fair and unbiased manner?

I came up with my very own grading scale. Check it out after the break.

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The 2011 NFL Draft is over, the picks are all in, and now the grades are going out. Of course, giving a team a report card on its draft choices is sort of like grading a student on their class selection at the beginning of the semester: “Jimmy’s really weak in math, so I’m glad to see he’s talking calculus, and I’m not sure what ‘Intro to Global Sensitivity Analysis’ is, but maybe it’ll make him into less of an asshole.” The real passing and/or failing hasn’t even begun.

So for now, the grades we give are, like the picks themselves, educated guesses in response to the following: “Will _____ be a good player for us? Will he make our team better?” And so far, the answer for most of the players picked seems to be, happily, “Yeah…I really think so.”

But there’s a secondary consideration, an aspect that concerns all of us, and especially those of us who have taken it upon ourselves to write and/or comment about this team week in and week out: “Will _____ be a good story for us? Will he make our team that much more interesting?”

Of course, interesting isn’t necessarily good. But for every Chad Ochocinco who coasts on talent and early success, says whatever he wants to get attention, perhaps changes his name to a Spanish number, launches a reality TV show, and in his spare time plays soccer, there’s a Priest Holmes who goes undrafted, works harder than anyone, overcomes injury, overcomes rejection, and then overcomes injury again to become one of the greatest ever—and in his spare time plays chess just to relax.

Looking over the crop of new stories about to join the larger Chiefs narrative, there are reasons to be excited about the potential of these picks. So while all the football grades are going out, here are my evaluations on the human-interest angle for each draftee, on a five-star scale, from downright dull (think Varsity Blues…Necessary Roughness…The Longest Yard (2005 version)) to a legend in the making (Rudy…Brian’s Song…The Longest Yard (1974)).

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We spent a lot of time describing to our readers during out live draft chat just what was going on at the Chiefs draft table on the floor of Radio City Music Hall while the team was making their pick. I thought it would be cool to capture some video for you all that actually showed what it is like to be on the floor during the draft.

The video below started shortly after the Chiefs went on the clock. In it you can see the draft and Chiefs officials waiting for the pick to come in. I kept things rolling right up until the pick was made so you can see Big Matt and I react. Enjoy.

The Kansas City Chiefs have made some surprising and shrewd picks in the 2011 NFL Draft but perhaps their selection of Yale FB shane Bannon was the most surprising and shrewd of them all.

Bannon was totally unknown by NFL teams until just a few weeks ago. At 6’2, 265, Bannon was an athletic FB that nobody knew about until he tagged along for a workout in front of an agent with a Yale teammate.

From Adam Caplan of Fox Sports:

Bannon (6-2, 265) lined up mostly offset in Yale’s offense, but when he did line up as a true fullback, he was a very physical blocker. He’s also a really strong special teams player.

Bannon was discovered just a few weeks ago, but indirectly.

“Well, him being a Yale guy, he’s (NFL player agent Joe Linta) always trying to help out Yale guys, he was working out one of our defensive ends, Sean Williams, and I kind of was tagging along,” Bannon told FOXSports.com. “We had a mock pro day. He saw I moved pretty well for a player of my size, so he probably was surprised.”

There is a Wall Street Journal article that you can read here that talks a lot about Bannon’s struggle to get noticed by NFL Scouts.

Bannon could be another steal for Pioli in the Chiefs. His athleticism and size makes him a candidate to play FB, TE and HB. This could be a pretty exciting 7th round pick.

What do you think Chiefs fans?

The Kansas City Chiefs had two picks to make use of in the 5th round of the 2011 NFL Draft and they used their second pick to select Oregon State DE Gabe Miller.

The pick sent a shock wave through the Arrowhead Addict draft chat. There were many WTF type of responses. Chiefs fans apparently do not like seeing “DE” come up on the draft list.

But Miller may not play DE for the Chiefs.

Here is what Wes Bunting had to say about Miller:

An undersized defensive end prospect who displays decent thickness through his lower half and loves to play to the whistle. Works hard in pursuit. However, isn’t real rangy when asked to close from the backside and lacks a great initial burst in all areas of the game. Uses his hands decently to fight his way off blocks, but struggles to anchor on contact.

Impression: A hard-working player but lacks the size/power to hold up with his hand on the ground and isn’t the kind of explosion athlete needed to be considered as a nickel rusher or 3-4 OLB prospect.

The Chiefs are most certainly drafting depth and project players at this point. They don’t appear to be overly impressed with any of the NT prospects. Miller will likely be a bit of a question mark until we here from Pioli.

Miller has good speed so he may be able to contribute as a special teams player as well as depth at DE or OLB. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs use him.

What are your initial reactions here?

The Brodie Croyle era appears to mercifully be coming to an end as the Kansas City Chiefs have drafted QB Ricky Stanzi out of Iowa.

The Chiefs realized how poor their QB depth was when Matt Cassel was suddenly taken out of action by an emergency appendectomy. Backup Brodie Croyle was forced to start in Cassel’s stead and was absolutely terrible in a loss to the San Diego Chargers.

The Chiefs spent a lot of time this offseason looking at QB options so it comes as no surprise that Stanzi is the pick here.

NFL Draft Scout lists Stanzi as the 8th best QB in the draft. He weighs in at 223 and stands at 6-4. He was projected as a 3rd or 4th round pick so the Chiefs got some nice value here in the early 5th.

We will have plenty on the Chiefs new QB but for now, what are your initial reactions?

The Kansas City Chiefs have added to their CB depth by selecting Colorado DB Jalil Brown in the 4th round for the 2011 NFL Draft.

Brown was projected as the 15th best CB in the draft by NFL Draft Scout. He was projected to be a 3 or 4th round selection. Brown ran a 4.5 40 at the NFL Scouting Combine and 6-1, 204.

Brown is a big, physical CB who often got overlooked by his teammate Jimmy Smith while at Colorado. He may not make a huge impact right away but the Chiefs don’t need him to. Brown will play behind Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr and Javier Arenas. He will likely be asked to make an impact on special teams as well as a dime corner.

The other thing to consider about Brown is his size. Javier Arenas is small and may have matchup troubles at times. Having a bigger CB like Brown who could come in and help out if Arenas struggles is very valuable.

Here is a bit on Brown from Sideline Scouting:

Very good size for the position, has above-average height and adequate bulk… Is very physical, good at taking on blocks and is strong enough to drive blockers back into the ball carrier… Does a good job of keeping a hand free when being blocked, sneakily shifty and deceptively powerful against larger blockers… Is a good wrap-up tackler, not a big hitter, but does a good job of breaking down and dragging ball carriers to the turf.

Doesn’t seem to play with a consistently high motor, not a guy who always flies around the field… Needs to do a better job of breaking down and forming up in the open field, has the tendency to drop his helmet and lunge a bit… Does not have overwhelming ball skills, has made a few impressive interceptions, but does not have the greatest hands in most situations… Looks a little stiff in the hips, body control is not the greatest

There is a reason Brown was taken in the 4th round and it is because he likely needs a little work. Still, this is an excellent value pick for the Chiefs. KC’s defensive backfield is one of their strengths and it just got stronger. Good move by Pioli in my opinion.

The Kansas City Chiefs have completed the second day of the 2011 NFL Draft and the early returns are coming in.

The reviews seem to be mostly positive so far but let’s take a quick look at who the Chiefs drafted on day 2.

Round 2, Pick 55:

Rodney Hudson, G/C out of Florida State.

The Chiefs used their second round selection on the un-sexy but much needed center position.

Hudson represents incredible value for KC. I’m not expert on his play but Big Matt and I spent last night reading scouting reports and watching some tape of Hudson. He is incredibly athletic and excels at pulling and trapping along the offensive line. The Chiefs run a zone blocking scheme that relies on athletic, fast offensive lineman to get out in front of the ball carrier and open up creases for the runner before the defense can react.

Hudson could likely start from day one and could be the Chiefs’ center for years to come. With Rudy Niswanger providing some solid depth the Chiefs are looking a little deeper along the offensive line. Keep in mind that Jon Asamoah and Brian Waters could probably also play a little center if the Chiefs needed them to.

Huge need filled for KC.

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The Kansas City Chiefs have selected Miami DE Allen Bailey with their 2nd pick in the 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

And here is our annual Scott Pioli head scratcher.

Bailey weighs in at 285. He stands at 6-3. He is a bit of a tweener and though some may think he is too small to play DE in the 3-4, I think thinks pick is pure value for the Chiefs.

KC has already filled big needs at center, WR and OLB. At this point in the 3rd round, if there is no player they are crazy about, they are likely to take the best player available on their board at a position they feel they need depth. With Tyson Jackson still being a question mark, the Chiefs need more depth along their defensive line.

From a depth standpoint, Bailey may not be that bad of a pick. Some scouts consider him to be one of the best, if not the best, pure athlete in the draft.

Here is a bit from NFL Draft Geek on Bailey:

There is a lot to like about Allen Bailey, but there are also a lot of things that will scare teams away from him. To start with, he is a flat out elite athlete, pound for pound, maybe the best in the draft. His pure strength, and explosiveness give him a great foundation to his game, and if he can build off his natural abilities, he could be a dominant force at the next level. On the other hand, his athleticism is really about all he’s got. He was able to bully college sized defenders, and run around them, but in the NFL you need much more than athleticism to be an effective defensive lineman. He desperately needs to develop some finesse pass rushing moves to be used as a 4-3 DE, he needs to play with better pad level, and also create better leverage.

Bailey may not be a starter but the Chiefs are getting to the point where they have solid starters and need to start adding depth. It will be interesting to see how they decide to use Bailey.

What do you think Chiefs Nation? Sound off!

Houston will likely fell a the pass rushing void the Chiefs have been looking to fill and will compete with Andy Studebaker for playing time opposite Tamba Hali.

The Chiefs had Houston in for a visit and we did a write up on him on our Chiefs Draft Interests page. You can check out the entire writeup here but below is a bit on Houston from that article:

If the Chiefs are looking for a pass rusher opposite Tamba Hali then Houston could be a pretty good option, especially if Akeem Ayers is off the board at #21. Still, what Larry says about Houston’s instincts against the pass concern me a bit. KC’s linebackers are woefully bad defending the pass and I think I’d rather have a guy who is more of a complete player. The fact of the matter is that Tamba Hali is never going to be a guy the Chiefs want dropping back in coverage. If Houston can’t develop better coverage skills the Chiefs would be stuck with two one trick ponies on the outside.

Houston was projected to go in the first round but he saw his stock plummet when word broke that he failed a drug test for weed at the NFL Combine.

Houston has serious skills and if the Chiefs believe he will get his act together he could be an absolute steal for KC in the third round.

What do you think Addicts? Was Houston the right pick for should the Chiefs have gone for a player that was a “better citizen?”

Source: Kansas City.com

The Kansas City Chiefs have addressed a huge area of need with their selection of Pitt WR Jonathan Baldwin in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Now what?

By trading back with the Cleveland Browns last night, the Chiefs acquired an extra third round pick. The Chiefs now have the opportunity to make three selections tonight.

Here is where the Chiefs will be picking:

Round 2, Pick #55

Round 3, Pick #70

Round 3, Pick #86

There is always the possibility that the Chiefs make a trade to move forward or back but for now we can operate under the assumption that these will be the picks.

What positions do you think the Chiefs should target now that their WR position is a little more solid?

Here is my list of Chiefs needs. This is my projected order of importance:

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Look how he catches the ball with his hands. I love it. I also love that he is training with Larry Fitzgerald and Darrelle Revis.

I sat on the floor at Radio City Music Hall repeatedly refreshing my internet connection.

It wouldn’t connect.

I looked around at my fellow media members and noticed that most of them had given up. They were writing in Word, sorting pictures or texting away on their phones. They were making the best of a crappy situation.

The internet connection at the NFL Draft is notoriously spotty. I had troubles last year as well but they were eventually sorted out by a tech person that came by and did something to my computer. Last night, however, there were no tech people to be found. We were screwed.

Unable to connect with our readers in the chat, upload videos or photos or otherwise make any good use of the fact that I was actually at the draft, I sat and brooded. AA Senior Staff Writer Big Matt sat next to me with a similar amount of frustration but with a sunnier outlook on the situation.

We were at the draft, after all. It wasn’t like there was a lack of things to look at.

As the picks ticked by we began to notice teams were desperately reaching for QB’s. Nearly after every pick, Big Matt would turn to me and ask what I thought the Chiefs were going to do. He was plainly nervous. I was having trouble focusing. I was brooding about the internet situation.

“I don’t know,” I said grumpily, “Maybe we’ll take Ingram if he falls. Or maybe Randell Cobb. I mean, I like Ayers alright and the tackles are all fine I suppose. I guess I just don’t have a favorite so I hope we do something exciting. I don’t know if Ingram would be the right pick but it sure would be an exciting pick.”

Then I went back to brooding.

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Alright my fellow Addicts, the NFL Draft is now just hours away! We’ve been speculating about who the Chiefs should and will pick for a couple of months now.

Now it’s time to put your mock where your mouth is. Everyone just post your own Chiefs mock in the comments and then when the draft is over the person with the most correct players taken can claim to be Arrowhead Addicts’ almighty draft guru of 2011.

You don’t have to stick to any big boards. You don’t have to explain why you picked someone. You can go with who you want or who you think Pioli will take. It’s up to you.

I’ll stick with the same mock I posted a couple of days ago.

1. Gabe Carimi – OT – Wis
2. Leonard Hankerson – WR – Mia
3. Jerrell Powe – NT – Miss
4. Ricky Stanzi – QB – Iowa
5a. Tim Barnes – C – Mizz
5b. Stevan Ridley – RB – LSU
6. Bruce Miller – OLB – UCF
7. Shaun Chapas – FB – UGA

Who do you have Addicts?

Suffice to say that I am the new guy, and I have been brought onto the team just in time to toss out some pre-draft opinions for all of you to laud, decry, praise or generally throw poo at.

First of all, I think there has been some great draft discussion going on here, particularly surrounding the irate Green Giant, Phil Taylor. But to follow my fellow columnists‘formula, this is how I see it in a nutshell:

The Chiefs …

Will Pick: NT Phil Taylor

Should Pick: Gabe Carimi

Por que? Para que I have a strong suspicion that all of the best pass rushers and O-linemen are going to go FAST. Even if guys like Robert Quinn and Aldon Smith make it out of the top 10, the league’s two worst defenses (Washington and Houston) pick at 10 and 11. Then you have the Jags, Chargers and Bucs — all of which need DE’s — so there goes Kerrigan, J.J. Watt, and Cameron Jordan (who likely wouldn’t make it past New England at 17 anyway). Bowers doesn’t fit KC and has a broken knee. The Cowboys, Lions, Rams, Dolphins and Giants all want O-linemen, and Gabe Carimi is ranked as perhaps the most NFL-ready trench guy in the draft. I love him, but a pure right tackle isn’t worth trading up for, and Mike Pouncey is also likely to be gone. I could be wrong, and I hope I am, but it’s not looking too good. In fact, that’s exactly how things went down in the ESPN Football Today Superfan Super Mock Draft, in which I represent the Chiefs as the KC Superfan/Mock GM.

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Draftniks, Rejoice! The day is almost upon us.

Draft Day.

Not since the days of Spartacus has the poking and prodding of highly muscled young males been anticipated with such gusto. They run, jump, throw, catch, lift and get measured in ways that would make an Italian tailor blush.

But the number most often debated on talk radio and blogs everywhere is the one residing between the ears.

The Wonderlic Score.

We all know what it is, but the real question is: What does it mean? Is it an accurate indicator of intelligence and the ability to learn and retain information, or is it an arbitrary and incongruous test of football ability?

It does tell us something, but let me say right now, I have no clue what it is.

Arguments can be made on both sides. Jim Kelly and Dan Marino both reportedly scored 15 on the test. This would suggest their mental capacity ends with the ability to dress themselves. Alas both became prolific Hall-of-Famers and quality individuals.

Nor do High scores indicate success. This may explain why Ryan Fitzpatrick gets lonely at the Ivy League NFL reunions.

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"A TE! Not another TE! Argh! Pioli, you bum! You absolute...er, wait a minute. Whoa! Wow! Sweet! Moeaki! Whooooo!"

With the NFL Draft just hours away, we are throwing around so many names for potential Kansas City Chiefs that I am starting to go cross eyed.

Through all the mock drafts, discussions, big boards and debate, I have noticed that almost all of us assume that the following positions are going to be addressed:

WR, OLB, C, T and to a lesser degree, RB, QB.

While it is an almost certainty that some of those above positions will be filled in the coming days I can almost promise you that some will not.

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Well KC Chiefs fans, the wait is almost over. The 2011 NFL Draft is only two days away. Last week my post was all about looking at the Chiefs’ first round pick through “Pioli Colored Glasses”. Now nobody can predict with 100% certainty what GM Scott Pioli is going to do, mainly because he shares very little. I’ve been obsessed with Pioli since he took the job as Chiefs GM. In that time he has given some really bland press conferences where he talks in vague generalities. Not much information ever comes out of those. Far and away the most interesting information on Scott Pioli came in Joe Posnanski’s piece for SI titled “A Dream In The Making“. If you haven’t ever read it, stop reading my “wanna be sports writer” drivel and click on the link to Posnanski’s well written and insightful piece. It’s worth the time. Even if you have already read it, reading it over before the draft Thursday night would be a good dose of perspective.

It’s easy for us as fans to get caught up in players we “know” would be a good fit, players whose scouting reports or youtube highlights look good, or players some draft “expert” like Todd McShay or Mel Kiper think would be a good fit. I’m as guilty as anybody. I crave mock drafts like a true Arrowhead Addict, even if the “mocker” clearly doesn’t know the Chiefs that well or have any real insider information. I scroll anxiously down to pick #21 waiting to either question the writer’s sanity or praise their brilliant insight (only because they picked a player I approve of).

But here’s the rub Chiefs fans, I believe and trust in Scott Pioli and his plan for building this team. So at the end of the day even if Pioli picks a bunch of players that I didn’t want or didn’t have on my “wish list”, I’ll trust that there is a reason for it. That’s why some have labeled me a Kool Aid guzzling homer in the past.

After the break I’ll share a few quotes from Posnanski’s article that will shed some light on Pioli’s plan for building a winner. It’s a plan I both believe in and am proud to support.

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It’s hard to believe: the big event that we’ve been looking forward to for months and speculating about for weeks on end is finally, nearly, almost here. After all the expert analysis and endless press coverage, it will all become official in just a few days.

But enough about Kate and Wills.

The other big to-do this week, as you probably know if you’ve checked this site even once since January, is the NFL Draft. At least for me, it can not get here soon enough. I’ve enjoyed following all the pre-draft talk and predictions and revised predictions and hand-wringing and occasional name-calling. It’s fun and all. But I feel like we’ve been gearing up for a post-season game, except that we’ve had to wait four months from the end of the regular season for it even to begin.*

*Like in college football.

Those of you who’ve followed what I write here—and particularly what I’ve been writing in these pre-draft, post-lockout, free-agency-bereft days—know that what I have to share trends more toward mockery than anything as labor-intensive as mock drafting. Hell, if I mocked the draft, it would probably sound something like this: “Oooh, look at me! I’m the NFL Draft! I’m sooooo $%#& important! Everybody wants to talk about me, because I’m the NFL Draft!” Get it?*

*Which is not to say that I would ever mock those who mock the draft. Except for Mel Kiper, Jr., but that is mostly hair-related.

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Just noticed we saw a massive traffic boost last night and this morning in the wake of the lockout being lifted.

Just to let you folks who have been away a while know, we’ve been here plugging away all along. Regardless with what happens in the appeals process, AA will be cranking out more content than ever to help you get your Chiefs fix.

Since it has been a while since many of you have been around, we certainly want to know your thoughts on the upcoming draft on Thursday. That is why we are holding a pre-draft chat on Wednesday night at 7 PM CST.

Some of AA’s draft enthusiasts will be on hand for an hour long chat with the Arrowhead Addict community. Make sure you stop by to talk draft with us and to get yourself ready for all the action coming up at the end of the week. It is also an excellent opportunity to go on the record with your predictions so you can gloat later if they turn out to be correct.

Hope to see you in the chat Wednesday night…and welcome back!