We are now two days out from the Chiefs’ 1^st-round pick being announced at Radio City Music Hall.

In a normal year, there would be very little suspense at this point for us fans. We’d already be talking about the contract details of the team’s assumed new player and what will happen later in the draft. But, as we all know, this is a strange year and a strange draft class. And, the LT Brandon Albert ball is still in the air.

So, here are the probabilities for what I think is going to happen. Feel free to chime in with your own.

1.) Will Albert be traded before the Draft officially begins?

80% Yes, 20% No.

If I’m the Chiefs, I want to make sure this deal gets done before I send my envelope to the podium. The Dolphins seem dead-set on nailing an LT in this draft, but the 2^nd-rounder they would send to the Chiefs for the trade could also potentially be used by them to trade up into the top seven to pick one of the top LT prospects. They may even prefer this option because they’d have the guy under contract for four years, he’ll be cheaper and younger, and can grow with their new quarterback.

Still, given that the talks have gotten this deep, it looks like the Chiefs simply need to act on it – with compensation perhaps a bit lower than they expect. Trading Albert essentially locks the Chiefs into taking one of the two LT prospects Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher and it’s unlikely they will be able to sign Albert to a long-term deal and trade him for much value if they both keep him this year and draft his replacement. I think they have considerable incentives to seal the deal before lights hit the stage in New York.

2.) Who will the Chiefs pick?

50% Luke Joeckel, 30% Eric Fisher, 12% OLB Dion Jordan, 5% DT Shariff Floyd, 3% DT Star Lotulelei

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Again, the Albert trade looks like all but a done deal, but getting a game-changer like Jordan certainly has to give them pause. However, if Albert is traded (again, an 80% probability IMHO), then they’re taking Fisher or Joeckel. Other possibilities if he stays are Floyd and Lotulelei, which would add bulk and versatility to the D-line.

3.) When do the Chiefs pick their first ILB?

50% 3^rd round, 20% 4^th round, 15% 5th round, 10% 2nd round, 5% no ILB taken this year

Even though it is the most conspicuous hole on the roster, I think the sweet spot for drafting ILB’s this year is the 3^rd round and it is a deep draft at that position. I don’t think GM John Dorsey is the kind of guy to spring for need if we get a 2^nd rounder by trading Albert, or trading up into the 2^nd round for a guy unless Alec Ogletree or Manti Te’o fall far. On the other hand, the team doesn’t currently have a 2^nd rounder, but it does have two picks in the third. I think they’ll go for the value guy on their list in the mid-rounds. On the other hand, they brought in two journeymen ILB’s for offseason workouts and it’s not a premiere position. They may think that they can cover themselves with what they have and take value picks in other places.

4.) How many offensive skill players will the Chiefs draft?

50% three, 20% four, 20% two, 10% one

This is a bit of a wild guess, because everything we know about Dorsey tells us that he likes to draft purely for value. Still, the offense was the Achilles’ heel of this team for the last two seasons and the side of the football that requires the greatest improvement. But: the new regime has already taken the most important step forward in improving the quarterback position, We also locked up our #1 WR in Dwayne Bowe and signed a #2 in Donnie Avery. We’re told that HC Andy Reid likes WR Dexter McCluster in a slot role and WR Jon Baldwin is still developing… we hope. That doesn’t leave a lot of spots for draft picks unless you plan on cutting them or putting them on the practice squad when the season begins.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

At running back, we have Jamaal Charles, Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray. The latter two are pickups from the previous regime and I would be surprised if Dorsey didn’t pick up a developmental RB at some point in the draft. It would also stand to reason for them to grab a young QB and TE at some point, but I would be surprised if they take more than one of each.

5.) When, if ever will the Chiefs take a QB?

50% 5^th round or later, 30% not this year, 20% 3^rd or 4^th round

The behavior of both this regime and the other NFL front offices implies that the league generally views this as not being the year to pick up a quarterback. In a sense, the Chiefs have already used their 2^nd-round pick on QB Alex Smith and they signed his backup to a generous contract. I don’t expect them to draft anyone that will provide immediate competition to either of them. That said, if a guy like Matt Barkley falls into the 4^th, I’d be surprised if the Chiefs passed on him altogether.

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

So what do you say? How do you like my odds?

For the last two years, in addition to writing a weekly column for Arrowhead Addict, I have also been representing the Nation as the official Kansas City Chiefs Superfan for the ESPN Football Today podcast. My role and importance as a Superfan fluctuated between the show’s changing lineup of hosts, but I always found it to be a fun exercise to get my two cents discussed in a wider forum.

Nonetheless, by far the most interesting and exciting event for us 32 Superfans was not getting our nonsense reactions to the latest games read throughout the season, but the three-round mock draft we took upon ourselves to act out every year.

This was not some ordinary mock draft. We, the designated Superfans, chosen through a lengthy application process, each year went through a live action draft complete with trades and arguments with our fictitious league commissioner. This year, I discarded my oversized suit jackets and thick-rimmed glasses for a sour expression and a pinnipedal cohort.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, I tried to think like the new regime and get the best I could out of our draft capital while following what seems to be their game plan. Here’s how it went down:

Pre-Draft

Like every Chiefs fan on the planet, I was looking to trade down. If I had the chance to stay within the top 5-6, I was pretty much willing to take any offer as there would definitely be a player there that I could take and I really wanted to recoup some mid-round picks. My second priority was – if I wasn’t going to land a major trade-down – to flip LT Brandon Albert for a 2^nd and change.

I got plenty of offers to move up to #1 overall, but they all came from teams too far away for my liking. Then, the Buccaneers made a crazy trade to move up from #13 to Jacksonville’s spot at #2 in exchange for their 2014 1^st and a late 2013 pick. The Jaguars must have been desperate to look to the future and gaining as much talent as they can next year because the trade was for far less than the draft value chart would call for. It also is a bit of an indictment of the talent at the top of this year’s class. Either way, I knew a mark when I saw one and told the Bucs Superfan/GM that I had been getting offers for the #1 spot and I wasn’t sure who those teams were going for, but if he wanted to get his guy – and clearly he did – all he had to do was part with a 3^rd-rounder to move all the way to the top.

In the end, that was too rich for his blood, but I took a 4^th off of him in the end and moved down to #2 overall. I then turned my attention to Albert. Like the real Chiefs, I was shopping him loud and hard. A couple of teams inquired, but I wanted to get a deal done before I had to actually make my pick. In the end, I took the Raven’s 2^nd-round (#62) and 5^th-round (#165) picks for our franchised left tackle. It would have been nice to get a higher 2^nd, but this still gave the team plenty of capital.

At this point, through compensatory picks and trades, my Chiefs team had regained a 2^nd and had two picks in rounds 3, 4, 5 and 6. But, that was to be short-lived.

We didn’t fully lay down the rules this year, and several of the teams complained that it made things too complicated to trade current players. I protested. The Philadelphia Superfan/GM then pointed out that Baltimore doesn’t have near enough space to pick up Albert’s contract in the first place and, while one could assume they would negotiate a cap-friendly long-term deal with him post-trade, that was just a bridge too far. The trade was voided.

In fact, only 12 teams have the cap space to be able to absorb Albert’s contract at the moment according to (the fabulous follow) the Film Room on Twitter. Those teams are: the Eagles, the Bills, the Pats, the Jags, the Cards, the Colts, the Jets, the Packers, the Bengals, the Browns, and the Bucs. All other teams would have to cut players to make space.

Unfortunately, the drama over the Albert trade erupted after I had already drafted his replacement – Luke Joeckel – 2^nd overall. Still, if the Chiefs can trade down and still get either Jockel or Fisher, they should count themselves lucky regardless of what happens with Albert.

Feb 23, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Texas A

Thus, the Nick-led Chiefs would forego any picks in the 2^nd round and it would next come around to us at pick #63.

Here’s how rounds 1 & 2 panned out overall.

Round 1

1 Tampa Bay via Kansas City via Jacksonville – CB Dee Milliner

2 Kansas City via Tampa Bay via Jacksonville – OT Luke Joeckel

3 Oakland – OT Eric Fisher

4 Philadelphia – OLB Dion Jordan

5 Detroit – DE Ezekiel Ansah

6 Cleveland – OLB Jarvis Jones

7 Arizona – OG Chance Warmack

8 San Diego via Buffalo – OT Lane Johnson

9 New York Jets – DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo

10 Tennessee – DT Shariff Floyd

11 Buffalo via San Diego – QB Geno Smith

12 Miami – CB Xavier Rhodes

13 Jacksonville via Tampa Bay – WR Tavon Austin

14 Carolina – DT Sheldon Richardson

15 Cincinnati via New Orleans – S Kenny Vaccaro

16 St. Louis – DT Star Lotulelei (steal of the day)

17 Pittsburg – OG John Cooper

18 Dallas – DT Sylvester Williams

19 New York Giants – ILB Alec Ogletree

20 Chicago – DE Damontre Moore

21 New Orleans via Cincinnati – DT Jesse Williams

22 St. Louis via Washington – WR Keenan Allen

23 San Francisco via Minnesota – DE Margus Hunt

24 Indianapolis – WR DeAndre Hopkins

25 Minnesota via Seattle – DE Datone Jones

26 Green Bay – S Matt Elam

27 Buffalo via Houston – WR Cordarrelle Patterson

28 Denver – DE Bjoern Werner (2^nd steal of the day)

29 New England – CD Desmond Trufant

30 Atlanta – CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson

31 San Francisco – DT John Jenkins

32 Baltimore – ILB Manti Te’o

Round 2

33 Jacksonville – OT D.J. Fluker

34 Arizona via Kansas City through San Francisco and Minnesota – QB E.J. Manuel

35 Philadelphia – S Eric Reid

36 Detroit – LB Arthur Brown

37 Cincinnati via Oakland – RB Eddy Lacy

38 Minnesota via Arizona – Quinton Patton

39 New York Jets – TE Tyler Eifert

40 Tennessee – DE Tank Carradine

41 Houston – WR Justin Hunter

42 Miami – OT Menelik Watson

43 Tampa Bay –  CB D.J. Hayden

44 Carolina – OT Reid Fragel

45 San Diego – OG Justin Pugh

46 St. Louis – S Jonathan Cyprien (STL was killin’ it)

47 Dallas – OG Larry Warford

48 Houston via Pittsburg – MLB Kevin Minter

49 New York Giants – CB Jonathan Banks

50 Baltimore via Chicago – S D.J. Swearinger

51 Washington – CB Jamar Taylor

52 Minnesota – WR Aaron Dobson

53 New Orleans via Cincinnati – OT Terron Armstead

54 Miami – DE Alex Okafor

55 Green Bay – DT Kawaan Short

56 Seattle – TE Zach Ertz

57 Pittsburg via Houston – DT John Hankins

58 Denver – WR Robert Woods

59 New England – WR Terrence Williams

60 Atlanta – DE Sam Montgomery

61 Tampa Bay via San Francisco – QB Ryan Nassib

62 Chicago via Baltimore – OT/OG Dallas Thomas

Sitting at the top of the 3^rd round, I had a lot of choices and some good players had fallen. Obviously, ILB is the Chiefs only glaring hole, but it is also a position where you can find some good players later in the draft. When it comes to premiere positions where you want to load up on talent, I think pass rusher is the next place the Chiefs should add a body. With Andy Studebaker (who was no world-beater) gone, can you name the team’s #3 outside linebacker? Didn’t think so.

Mike Mayock’s 2^nd-rated 3-4 outside linebacker is a guy probably few of you have heard of – not Barkevious Mingo, nope, he put Jamie Collins above him, right after Dion Jordon. Few know Jamie Collins because he was playing in the witness protection program down in Southern Mississippi, a team that didn’t win a single game in 2012. But, if you look at Collins’ tape, he definitely stands out as a high-motor, highly skilled guy with the speed to go all over the field as basically the only bright spot on that defense.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

We need a guy to rotate and develop with OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston because currently we have no depth and Tamba turns the big 30 this year. So, I grabbed Collins, who I think is a steal at that spot.

Later in the round, I was still able to get my ILB target. I know there are lots of Arthur Brown fans on this site, but Oregon’s Kiko Alonso looks to me like Manti Te’o, just underrated rather than overrated and with a real, live girlfriend.

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

This is how the 3^rd round went overall:

Round 3

63 Kansas City – OLB Jamie Collins

64 Jacksonville – CB Darius Slay

65 Detroit – OT Kyle Long

66 Oakland – CB David Amerson

67 Philadelphia – DE William Ghoston

68 Cleveland – S Shawn Williams

69 Arizona – C/G Travis Frederick

70 Tennessee – CB Jordan Poyer

71 Buffalo – TE Gavin Escobar

72 New York Jets – S Tony Jefferson

73 San Francisco via Tampa Bay – TE Travis Kelce

74 Minnesota via San Francisco – DT Brandon Williams

75 Cincinnati via New Orleans – OLB Sio Moore

76 Baltimore via San Diego – -OT Luke Marquardt

77 Miami – CB Robert Alford

78 St. Louis – RB Marcus Lattimore

79 Pittsburg – RB Giovanni Bernard

80 Chicago via Dallas – LB Khaseem Greene

81 New York Giants – OLB Corey Lemonier

82 Miami – C Barrett Jones

83 Minnesota – S Phillip Thomas

84 New Orleans via Cincinnati – OLB Trevardo Williams

85 New York Jets via Washington – RB Jonathan Franklin

86 Indianapolis – OL Brian Schwenke

87 Seattle – WR Da’Rick Rogers

88 Green Bay – RB Montee Ball

89 Houston – QB Tyler Wilson

90 Denver – RB Le’Veon Bell

91 New England – WR Ryan Swope

92 Atlanta – TE Vance McDonald

93 San Francisco – RB Mike Millislee

94 San Diego via Baltimore – CB Leon Sandcastle … err McFadden

95 Houston – WR Markus Wheaton

96 Kansas City – ILB Kiko Alonso

97 Tennessee – WR Steadman Bailey

To see the full spreadsheet, plus explanations for the picks from the other Superfans, click here.

So what do you think, Addicts? Did I do the right thing? Who would you have picked?

I spent the first couple of months of the offseason screaming for LT Branden Albert to be re-signed and bashing the idea of using the team’s first overall pick to replace him. But, now that free agency has run its course for this team, I can see how trading a now-franchise-tagged Albert increases the team’s purse, longevity and flexibility going into the Draft.

Here’s how:

It saves money.

While the new rookie wage scale makes it cheaper and easier to sign top picks, the salaries are also determined by a formula so complicated that I won’t bore you with here. But, basically the contract for the 1^st overall pick this year will be something like 4-years for $21 million in guaranteed money or an average of a bit over $5 million a year. If the Chiefs want to keep the player (Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher in this scenario), then they can invoke what is essentially the “rookie tag” which works like a franchise tag except that it is the average of the top 10 salaries at the position rather than the top 5.

Albert’s franchise tag salary this year will make him $9.828 million in guaranteed money – that’s nearly 10 percent of the Chiefs total player payroll. It’s also reported that he wants something in that neighborhood as a yearly salary as a part of a long-term deal.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, Joeckel will cost roughly half of what Albert will next season, and we get him for that cheap price for four full years. With Albert, there’s no guarantee that the Chiefs will be able to come to a long-term agreement, and even if they do, it’s going to be pricey.

In the end, it all depends on how Dorsey and Reid feel about Joeckel and Fisher. If they think that either of those two prospects have brighter futures than Albert – and they may even think that one or both of them are better than Albert right now – then why pay Albert double what you can get these guys for?

It makes the team younger.

I know that saying this may give fans PTSD flashbacks to the Herm Edwards “youth movement” experiment, but a lot of talent that is still driving this team came out of that 2008 draft class.

The Chiefs have had a great run of free agency, methodically filling nearly every hole on the roster with solid starters. Moves like the trade for QB Alex Smith show that the new regime believes it can win now with this improved squad. But, we can’t turn our back on the future in order to try and win this season. Giving up what could be two 2^nd-rounders is a heavy price to pay for our quarterback of today.

Last year, all the free agency chatter was about Mario Williams and Matt Flynn – the most sought after defensive and offensive free agents respectively. Did they lead their teams on a quick run to the promised land? The Bills went 6-10 and the Seahawks ended up starting a 3^rd-round pick over their free agency prize.

This is a story we’ve seen time and time again. The team that wins free agency frequently wins very little thereafter. We’ve made some smart additions, now we need to draft smart, and for that we need ammunition.

According to reports, the Chiefs are looking for a 2013 2^nd-rounder and a 2014 pick as well. We just signed a truckload of veterans. If we can translate Albert and his $10-million price tag into two young starters, then we can help balance out this team with youthful bodies for the future.

It gives us flexibility in the draft.

Mike Mayock has been saying for a month now that in this draft, you’re just as well off picking 25^th as if you are picking 5^th. This draft is also deep in areas of overall need for the Chiefs. We can easily pick up rotational D-linemen, a right tackle or a good ILB in the 2^nd round. The problem is that we (technically) don’t have a pick there. Although our 3^rd round pick would really be a 2^nd most years because two picks ahead of it were eliminated, picking up a real 2^nd-rounder will give us the ability to move around and target the guys we want. With a second and that high third we could likely even move back into the 1^st round if we saw a great talent falling.

In some ways, the 2^nd round is a better place to be picking than 1st overall. It will be very difficult to trade out of the top spot and get decent compensation and there are only a few players worthy of that top pick. In the second round, not only will there be good players dropping and available, but the trade market is always much more lively there to both move up and down.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Again, all of this depends on what Dorsey and Reid think of Albert and Joeckel. If they don’t think he’s worthy of the money he is demanding, then we are just renting him this year and will see him depart in 2014 for nothing. Right now, we can potentially get good value in a trade and make his contract someone else’s problem. With another $9.8 million to spend, we can pick up another free agent or two now that feeding frenzy is over and there are bargains to be had.

Meanwhile, the team overall gets younger and more stable. “Draft and develop” is what makes good teams into dynasties, and I don’t know about you, but I’d like to see this new staff turn in more than one exciting and short playoff run like the last four before them.

Well, these new guys sure know how to keep us guessing.

When you think they’re going to zig, they zag. For weeks, reports were coming out about unproductive contract negotiations with the Chiefs’ unsigned stars and our new GM’s affinity for the “draft-and-develop” and “best-player-available” approaches. When the new regime traded our 2^nd rounder (and more) for QB Alex Smith, it seemed cemented that LT Brandon Albert would be allowed to walk, Bowe would be tagged and denied a long-term deal for another year and the Chiefs would draft the best tackle available.

Then, the team locked up all three of the team’s most important free agents – including Albert – in a day. Chiefs nation rejoiced. This made the offensive linemen a secondary need moving forward and freed our hands to do whatever we pleased in the draft. Then, just as suddenly, the team cut our second-best lineman at the opposite tackle spot.

RT Eric Winston’s $4.5-million salary was more than reasonable given his skill and the value of the position.  Did they need the cap space? Well, by restructuring DE Tyson Jackson’s contract, they doubled their cap space for 2013 and they still have Matt Cassel on the roster due $7.5 million next year. More head-scratching ensues.

Maybe they want to go young? Perhaps they’ll move Albert to RT, or start the 1^st-overall tackle selection there. But, they just traded a high pick for a veteran quarterback. Not exactly a rebuilding move. If there were any doubts that the new regime believes it can win now, those were certainly dashed by the signing of CB Dunta Robinson, who is 31 and will make an average of $5 million a year for the next three.

Josh D. Weiss-USA TODAY Sports

Immediately, speculation was rife that the Chiefs intend to move him to free safety. This of course did not stop CB Javier Arenas from mouthing off to a local blogger who had the temerity to suggest that the team that gave up 29 passing touchdowns last year (only four teams allowed more) could use some cornerback help.

After spending a few days trying to reconcile the seeming contradictory nature of these moves over the past week, I finally realized the simple truth that we can only see a portion of the plan right now. Free agency hasn’t really started and the Draft is still more than a month away. Trying to figure out what the new regime is doing is like trying to put together a puzzle with only about 10% of the pieces.

To me, this is what we are seeing:

Reid wants an O-line that can pass block

Overall, Pro Football Focus rated the Chiefs offensive line as the 12^th best in the league in 2012, but that ranking was pushed up for them being the 8^th best run-blocking unit. They were far less effective when you look at their pass blocking (14^th) and amount of penalties accrued (15^th). Winston was pretty much the embodiment of that. Winston is a gnarly run-blocker, but committed 10 penalties and isn’t at his best blocking for passers.

This is actually both a deep Draft and free agency year for tackles, so if HC Andy Reid and company think they can find better and cheaper pass-blocking tackles out there, then this move makes perfect sense. In the NFL, it is considered a gentlemanly move to cut players as soon as you are confident you will be moving on from them. Releasing Winston now gives him a jump on free agency and the best chance to get value for his services. Had they waited until after the Draft, most teams looking for right tackles would have likely already filled their roster holes and the money out there would be spent as well.

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The names I would keep my eye on are Gosder Cherilus of the Lions and Winston Justice, who previously played for Reid in Philly and will come cheap. The team is also reportedly arranging workouts with top tackle prospects Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher.

The new regime respects this defense

I honestly expected a lot more turnover on the defensive side of the ball by this point. However, the fact that the Chiefs kept Jackson and reportedly want to hold on to DE Glenn Dorsey shows that they think that this defense doesn’t need to be fiddled with much. They picked up Robinson quickly after he was cut by Atlanta for a surprisingly reasonable price. Generally, players will get a bit more money before free agency opens up, because they are essentially allowing the team to fill a hole and narrow their focus before the floodgates open. Once it’s open season on free agents, everyone’s personal value goes down.

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

That’s why, to me, the Robinson signing smacks of opportunism. The team knew they wanted to bring in a starting quality CB or two, they sent Robinson an offer not looking at him as a priority target and it worked. The contract isn’t huge, but having Dunta gives them some flexibility. I would be surprised if we don’t sign at least one more free agent D-back (the Rams’ Quintin Mikell is my best guess).

This is what GM John Dorsey means by “best player available”

BPA is the new zeitgeist phrase of the Chiefs blogverse. It’s what Dorsey lives by, and I think it’s been largely misunderstood. In order to pick whatever you believe is the best value out there, you need to have a solid team in the first place. If your fridge breaks, you don’t go out and buy a second washing machine just because it’s on sale. Very few people will be excited if the Chiefs use their 1^st-overall pick on an offensive tackle, but if Dorsey thinks that the guy is a future Hall-of-Famer and there’s no longer any gaping holes on the roster, I can live with it.

We still need to get ourselves a backup QB (ideally through the Draft) and fill in a bit of depth here and there, but I think we starting to see the new guys make their mark on this team. The O-line is going to be reworked (although we’re not quite sure how), but otherwise we will be a team that rewards their own and fights to compete every year.

My qualms with specific moves aside thus far, I’m increasingly optimisitic for where this franchise is headed.

The NFL Combine edition of the FanSided.com NFL Mock Draft has been released and despite a string of “Geno Smith picks” recent news involving the Chiefs and Alex Smith has the pick moving away from QB.

And back to tackle:

1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, Offensive Tackle, Texas A&M
Rumors are indicating that the Chiefs could have a deal in place to land Alex Smith. That trade would give them veteran leadership at quarterback, but the team would still have many holes on the roster. Expect Dwayne Bowe to get the franchise tag and Branden Albert to leave in free agency, which would open the door for Luke Joeckel to the Chiefs.

This view on things likely isn’t going away any time soon. Sigh.

Here are the picks for the rest of the AFC West:

3. Oakland Raiders – Shariff Floyd, Defensive Tackle, Florida
Floyd is shooting up draft boards and is considered to be a top five lock. With the Raiders needing defensive line help, look for them to add talent to the trenches.

11. San Diego Chargers – Lane Johnson, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma
It seems all but certain that the Chargers will use their first-round pick to use the best available offensive tackle. Whether it be Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson on the board, San Diego appears poised to add a big body in the trenches.

28. Denver Broncos – Kevin Minter, Linebacker, LSU
Minter is ranked by some as the best inside linebacker prospect in this year’s class and would be an immediate upgrade in the middle of the Broncos defense.

Geno Smith went to the Jags at #2.

Check out the entire mock at FanSided.com.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs GM John Dorsey is at the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine and he has gone on the record as saying that the team could re-sign LT Branden Albert and draft top tackle prospect Luke Joeckel with the No.1 overall pick.

Dorsey talked with Adam Teicher, Chiefs beat reporter for the Kansas City Star, Saturday. According to Teicher, Dorsey said everything is on the table.

From the Star:

“Then you have great competition at left tackle,’’ said Dorsey, speaking at the NFL Scouting Combine, of the combination of re-signing Albert and drafting Joeckel . “Who’s to say both of those guys are locked in to playing left tackle? Maybe one plays left guard, center, right guard, right tackle. You put your best five offensive linemen out there.

“There are so many options out there right now. Anything is possible.’’

Can you imagine what would happen if the Chiefs drafted Joeckel after re-sgning Branden Albert? I think the whole of Kansas City would go insane.

Dorsey believes in taking the best player available. That means even if he already has a solid starter at a position or even if that position is deep, he will keep adding to it.

I think the best player available option works pretty well if you already have a franchise QB and a pretty good team but the Chiefs have neither of those things. You don’t take a tackle with the first pick in the draft after you pay another tackle top dollar to play the position. Branden Albert wants top dollar and if the Chiefs pay him he won’t be moving inside. As for Joeckel, KC isn’t going to take him and then make him a guard either.

At this point, I think it is pretty safe to ignore most of what John Dorsey says. We won’t, of course, because our job is to bring you the goings-on in Chiefs Nation but I’d take most of what the GM says this time of year with a gigantic grain of salt.

Last week, I laid out why I think it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to select DT Star Lotulelei with their first pick. This week, it’s Joeckel’s turn.

There’s probably no player more frequently mocked to the Chiefs than LT Luke Joeckel, but there are a lot of problems with that pick.

Still, let’s start with the good:

He’s a blue chip player at a blue chip position and if the Chiefs don’t re-sign Brandon Albert, it’s a need position for the Chiefs as well.

By almost all accounts he is one of the top three prospects in this draft. Left tackles with the natural ability and prototypical size that he has do not grow on trees. In a year of iffy quarterback prospects, tackles also tend to be safer picks and he’ll be cheaper than retaining Albert’s services most likely.

He has no injury concerns and held his own against some of college football’s best pass rushers in the SEC. All around, he is a low-risk pick and could be the best LT in all of football with some development.

So why not take him?

First off, while there is an overall lower bust rate for tackles in the top of the draft, they’re not a sure bet either. Of the eight tackles taken in the top ten since 2008, all but two are currently rated by Scouts Inc. as just “good starters,” which they describe as a “Solid starter who is close to being an outstanding player … Has few weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchup but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the league.”

That’s not exactly an inspiring result for a 1^st overall pick. If you pick in the top five, you should be landing a guy that is a star in the league for years, not a guy who is merely better than average.

Brandon Albert, on the other hand, is rated as an “outstanding player” by Scouts Inc., which they describe as, “Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL … A feature player who has an impact on the outcome of the game … Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week-in and week-out.”

In other words, if the past five years of drafts are any indication, the Chiefs have essentially a one in four chance of drafting a tackle as good as Brandon Albert. In fact, Brandon Albert is probably one of the most under-rated players on the Chiefs roster. He was ranked the 7^th best left tackle in pass protection by Pro Football Focus in 2012 giving up just one sack throughout the season, and Jamaal Charles ran his best when going wide left behind Albert last year. At the final tally, he averaged 8.1 yards for 459 total, gaining roughly a third of his total yards and three of his five touchdowns that way – including that miracle sprint that won us the Saints game.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

But looking at Joeckel himself as a prospect, he is also far from perfect. Going back to the Scouts Inc. grades, the only thing he is rated as “exceptional” in is “awareness.” Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that he’s a smart football player, but I also get a bit antsy about prospects other than quarterbacks whose primary accolade is that they have veteran awareness, because that is ideally the area where they will improve the most once they get to the NFL. Most players do not fundamentally change their bodies and physical tools once they get to the pros, because there’s only so much more you can do when you’re built like these guys are.

In their grades on both his pass protection and run blocking, Scouts Inc. notes he lacks “power in punch” and “initial pop,” noting he doesn’t always drive defenders off the line, but is usually able to make up for his lack of strength with good reactions. While I imagine he can bulk up some, if he’s getting outmuscled in college, he’s going to get straight up beaten in the NFL. Plus, if his awareness is already topped out, he may have peaked already.

The last team to pick a left tackle 1^st overall was the Miami Dolphins in 2008. They had a similar plan to the one that is very popular in the comment section – they got their franchise LT in Jake Long with their first overall pick and then snagged a falling QB prospect in the 2^nd round – Chad Henne. In fact, there are lot of similarities between the 2012 Chiefs and the Dolphins going into the 2008 Draft. They too had a solid defense and a team with good veteran pieces in place. So how did it go?

What occurred was the greatest single-season turnaround in NFL history as they improved from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008, winning the Tom Brady-less AFC East and going to the playoffs. But, it didn’t last.

Still running with free-agent-signing Chad Pennington at quarterback, the Dolphins turned stale as their game plan of short, accurate passing with Pennington stopped working. Teams also started figuring out the wildcat formation and when Pennington got injured, the team was forced to confront the fact that Henne was something less than a starting quality QB. He finished the season with 12 TD’s, 14 INT’s and a QBR of 51.3.

Three picks after they grabbed Jake Long, the Falcons drafted QB Matt Ryan. Since the 2008 draft, the Falcons’ regular season record is 56-24. The Dolphins have gone 38-42 and haven’t been back to the playoffs since 2008. Meanwhile, Jake Long has ended up being a solid player but has had so many injury problems that the team plans to let him walk on the free market this offseason.

At this stage of the process, the chattering consensus is that it would be a reach for the Chiefs to take any quarterback at #1, however there’s also no guarantee that they will be able to take one of the top two quarterback prospects at all if they wait to try and jump into the back of the 1^st round or take whatever is left in round two. Free agent options are uninspiring to say the least.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a left tackle that they could re-sign who is better than 75% of the tackles taken in the top 10 of the 1^st round in the last five years.

The Chiefs need to decide if they want to be the Dolphins or the Falcons, whether they want to take a chance to fundamentally change this team, or whether they want to play the best card we have this offseason to fill a hole that we’d be making ourselves.

For me the choice is simple, don’t draft Joeckel if you want to take a big step forward.