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Well, Kansas City fans, at this point during the week I’m sure we’re all a little exhausted of hearing about the the Chiefs’ failure against the Rams Saturday night. The Chiefs secondary was lacking in some things (to say the least), the injured status of Kendrick Lewis and Brandon Flowers has us all concerned and Ricky Stanzi performed miserably. To boot, we all have questions pertaining to just what caused Tamba Hali’s suspension. But let’s try to brighten up here. Bowe is back, Cassel is continuing to do well in Daboll’s offense and, at the pace he’s going, Peyton Hillis is looking to be a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. Further, the Chiefs are better off seeing the weakness in their D now instead of, say, the fourth preseason game; the two remaining preseason games should provide us fans with a good litmus test for what to expect from our Chiefs at the start of the regular season now that Crennel knows just what kind of adjustments need made that could hamper some of the better QBs in the league, several of which the team’ll be facing right off the bat.

Before making my predictions last week, I considered how I saw the Chiefs’ 53-man roster fleshing out and drew the following conclusions:

ST: K – 1, P – 1, LS – 1

OFF: QB – 3, RB – 4, WR – 7, OL – 8 or 7, TE – 3 or 4 (8 OL & 3 TE, or 7 OL & 4 TE)

DEF: DL – 7 or 8, LB – 8, DBs– 10 or 9 (7 DL & 10 DBs, or 8  & 9, respectively)

When considering this structure, I felt a few position group numbers were a little high, but a quick look at last year’s roster, courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, assured me that I’m pretty well in the ballpark. And, yes, having a minimum of nine guys in the secondary and a possible ten still seems a little excessive, but when you consider that last year’s active roster, at one point or another, included Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis, Jalil Brown, Travis Daniels, Javier Arenas, Reshard Langford, Jon McGraw, Donald Washington & Sabby Piscitelli, I’m not too far off base. Of the nine or ten DBs I expect to make the roster, do I expect all of them to be on the active roster come game day? No; just as I don’t expect the 7^th WR, 8^th OL, 8^th LB, or 3^rd QB to be on the active roster. Remember, though it’s a 53-man roster, only a maximum of 46 players may be active on game day (up from the previous CBAs 45-man limit), which leads us to this week’s predictions:

1.  With Flowers and Lewis out for an indeterminate amount of time, Crennel will take a hard look at the DBs on roster (I know, I’m friggin’ Nostradamus, right?). Chalking up Saturday’s problems to a secondary that is “young”, “inexperienced” and lacking “maturity”, Crennel will focus mostly on filling out the roster with the more veteran players. Though some of these players’ ceilings may not be as high as some of the newer guys, their consistency and reliability in the short term will prevail over longer term, but potentially better, developmental projects. As I see it the roster will consist of : 1. Flowers; 2. Routt; 3. Berry; 4. Lewis; 5. Abram Elam; 6. Travis Daniels; 7. Jalil Brown; and, 8. Javier Arenas. This leaves one maybe two spots to take on either Jacques Reeves and a project player, or two project players, with the likely candidates being Dequan Menzie, Terrance Parks and Tysyn Hartman. Dequan Menzie may be in the same boat as Junior Hemingway; an injury plagued camp may spell practice squad, but I think the odds of that are worse than with Hemingway, and choosing Menzie and either Parks or Hartman over Reeves to fill out the bottom of the roster wouldn’t be too surprising. That being said, I could somewhat understand if Reeves was chosen to stay on roster with the other candidates being practice squad eligible. In any event I would not be shocked to see all three of Menzie, Parks & Hartman keep ties with the team, even if one or two is/are kept in the capacity of practice squad player(s). The remaining options (Fenner, Fanor, etc.) just don’t strike me as making the cut in any capacity.  That includes Donald Washington, who despite being a veteran and “more mature”, seems to me to be too costly of a save at this point.

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2. Stanzi will still make the roster, but as the No. 3 QB and only for the purposes of continued development. He’s just not looking that good right now, and if a playoff berth is still in the cards and push comes to shove (Cassel and Quinn are unable to play), Pioli has enough sense to make a powerplay for a much better QB. The three I could see getting the most consideration in this hypothetical situation are Matt Moore, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. Moore has the most (and recent) experience in a Daboll-driven offense and could slide in and understand the terminology, assignments, etc. the easiest. Hasselbeck, on top of the reasons Paddy pointed out, not only provides consistently good play, but given his age would not be perceived as a threat to Cassel. And I think Sanchez is simply better than he’s given credit for: he’s actually improved every year he’s been in the league, he has playoff wins under his belt, and given a more stable locker room and stronger supporting offensive cast, I think he would surprise. Obviously, this hypothetical scenario also takes place later in the season where Moore, Hasselbeck and Sanchez may be seen as expendable for the right price. In any case, I don’t see Stanzi taking the field if the Chiefs still have a shot at the playoffs; until he shows us significantly more than he has, I think I’d rather see Zorn suit-up and take the field.

3. Following another lackluster game performance, Josh Bellamy’s stock has dropped some, but he should still be counted as a candidate for the last WR slot (though arguments for Markshausen and, as KCMikeG pointed out, Jamar Newsome have gotten stronger). Bear in mind that a) the last WR isn’t likely to sniff the active roster, b) injury to Bowe or Baldwin will be overcome by Breaston resuming the role of the No. 2 WR, a role he held for most of his career (remember: Boldin played out of the slot in Arizona), and c) an injury to McCluster will result in Breaston, and eventually Wylie, being able to fulfill the role being carved out by Dex. If Breaston or Wylie get injured, it’ll be a blow, but likely not a humongous one. If any two of Bowe, Baldwin and Breaston get injured, the Chiefs would definitely be in trouble, but unless both of those injuries were expected to be long-term, I’d anticipate we’d see Daboll calling for more 2-TE sets until one of the guys returned.

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4. I’ve grown quite fond of Kendrick Lewis. As last year wore on after Berry’s injury, Lewis started to improve by leaps and bounds, and I firmly believe he is a better player now than he otherwise would’ve been at this point in his career had Berry not been injured. In the face of adversity, Kendrick rose to the occasion, and how can you not love a player capable of that? But that being said, I agree with AA’s own Lyle Graversen that the loss of Flowers is greater than the loss of Lewis. Abram Elam will provide adequate temporary replacement of Lewis until Lewis can heal up; however, one of the greatest disappointments concerning Kendrick’s injury is that the newly implemented defensive scheme of putting Lewis and Elam in at safety and letting Eric Berry roam freely and wreak havoc is in danger of not being utilized until his Lewis’ return. Enter Travis Daniels. I’ll admit, I was pretty indifferent to Travis Daniels prior to this season (didn’t love him, didn’t hate him), but since he switched to taking on safety duties, I have a little more hope in his capability to make significant contributions to the team. There are two preseason games left, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see Daniels tested harder at safety to see if he can provide suitable replacement for Lewis in the new scheme so it can start being effectively used before Lewis heals up and returns. With Tamba a certain loss in the Atlanta game, and Flowers and Lewis uncertainties as to whether or not they’ll play, Daniels being coached up enough so that the new scheme isn’t a liability may be integral to a Chiefs victory on opening day. That may be a lot of faith to put into Daniels, but a roving Berry may be the team’s best hope for a victorious pass defense without Flowers, Lewis and Hali in the mix.

Thus concludes my predictions/observations for this week, Addicts. If you disagree with anything I’ve said or proposed, or think that there’s a player I’m not giving enough credit to (or giving too much credit to, for that matter), let me hear it in the “Comments” section. And as always, Go Chiefs!!!!!

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Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel find themselves in an uncommon predicament in Kansas City. The Chiefs have more depth than they’ve had in years, and it’s time to start pruning back the roster. While Pioli has more notable experience at this task due to his time in New England, RAC’s experience as HC in Cleveland was probably less “which player is better” and more “which player sucks less”.

Further, the CBA explicitly leaves it to each team to determine its own cutdown schedule, which for Pioli, at least, tasks him with determining what moves are best for the team that’ll play the regular season and what moves are best for the ledger. You see, while the Chiefs could hold, in theory, hold all players until the end of the preseason, making all cuts and practice squad assignments in one fell swoop, they also have to pay each player each week they remain on roster (plus housing, meals and other costs). For players that have not yet accrued one NFL season the rate is $850 per week. For the remaining players, who are considered veterans with at least one season under belt, the sum is $1,600 per week.

Being in a position not so concerned about the business aspect of the NFL, Crennel will obviously be interested in getting the best players for his team on the 53-man roster.

A few position groups look a little tighter than others and will warrant longer looks. The Chiefs’ RB/FB group, DL & OL look particularly tight. Their LB corps also looks tight outside of DJ, Hali, Houston & Belcher/Siler, but the talent dropoff is a little bit more noticeable for the remainders (which is bound to happen when compared to DJ, Hali and the emerging Houston). The WRs and DBs are overcrowded, but a few names are clearly improving and impressing over others so it might not be as tight as it looks on paper. QBs look pretty straightforward (Cassel, Quinn & Stanzi on roster and Tanney on the practice squad), as does TE (Boss, Moeaki & Maneri on roster for sure; maybe Biere or O’Connell if they decide to keep a fourth).

A couple important things to note is that, while it is a 53-man roster, the practice squad is allowed up to 8 players (9 if the team puts an international player on the squad as the 9th person, which doesn’t look to be pertinent to the Chiefs this year). So realistically, of the 90 men on roster, only 29 must be cut from the team completely. Also an interesting point to note is that, while any team can sign a player from another team’s practice squad, they may only do so in the interest of adding the player to the second team’s own 53-man roster; the CBA prohibits teams from taking a player off another team’s practice squad just to turn around and put the player on their own practice squad.

Following Preseason Week 1, here are a few observations and predictions concerning how Pioli & Co. may handle the cuts this season:

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1. Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray both look like they could be solid contributors in the regular season. Putting one of these players on the practice squad could be synonymous with cutting them, as I think another team would be likely to clear a spot on their 53-man roster to take a chance on them. Inversely, I don’t see the Chiefs carrying more than 4 players in the backfield, which means they might have to do without a fulltime FB. Hillis can provide these services, if needed, and the team’s decision to crosstrain a few TEs in the role may make Shane Bannon expendable. Notice I said “expendable” rather than “relegated to the practice squad for another year”. The Steelers starting FB went down to an ACL tear during the Steelers preseason opener against the Eagles, and is likely to be out for the entire season.* The Steelers have a way of making good use of their FB on roster and may be looking to replace him for the season. Todd Haley might look no further than KC in recommending a replacement to HC Mike Tomlin, and Haley’s eyes may be on the waiver wire or KC’s practice squad (as the case may be). Now the Steelers have shown a tendency to prefer FBs that are more in the FB/TE hybrid vein, so maybe this circumstance won’t arise, but it bears keeping an eye on.

* Been there, right? Hey, maybe the injury bug followed Haley to Pittsburgh. Wouldn’t that be nice?

2. In limited punting opportunities, K/P Matt Szymanski put up numbers comparable to Colquitt’s. Additionally, Szymanski did consistently great during his opportunities on placekicking duties. While it’s likely that Colquitt will remain the Chiefs’ punter this season, and that the Chiefs won’t carry more than one kicker and one punter on the 53-man roster (other position groups are too crowded and the additional spot could be better used elsewhere), more importance has been placed on STs this year, and the future prospect of only needing to use one roster slot for a K and P is enticing (and we all know Pioli loves versatility). I expect Szymanski to get a practice squad slot and to receive a lot of focus on punting this season. If it looks like he could suitably replace Colquitt, Pioli may just let Dustin’s contract expire at the end of the season and move forward with the player that may potentially develop into a suitable K as well a few years down the line.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

3. The DL looks thicker. Just a few months ago a lot of fans were taking it for granted that players like Powe and Amon Gordon would make the roster, myself included; now, I’m not too sure. Toribio has progressed more than any of us probably anticipated and will likely remain in the Top 2 in the depth chart at NT. Gordon does have an edge on Powe, as he can handle either DE or NT duties, but even there depth at DE looks just as thick and may not accommodate Gordon. Besides Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey, the Chiefs have Allen Bailey who looks to provide the team with a better pass rush from the DL, the solidly built veteran Ropati Pitoitua, and Brandon Bair has started to make a little bit of noise on the field. Eight players for the DL seems like a little much, especially if Poe can prove his stamina before the preseason is over and be a three-down player. Powe may have a shot of making the roster, if RAC determines that Dontari can provide DE services consistently enough to go with the anticipated NT services (thereby rendering Gordon as aged and obsolete a’la Kelly Gregg). But as of right now, I expect 7 men to carry over to the 53-man roster with the last spot going to either Bair or Gordon.

4. My fourth and final prediction following Week 1 concerns the WR situation. I can reasonably see 7 WRs making it to the 53-man roster. Bowe, Baldwin, Breaston, McCluster & Wylie are almost sure to be locks with the remaining WRs duking it out for the last two slots. I think Terrence Copper’s proven effectiveness on special teams and his veteran presence might give him an edge for the sixth slot. The real battle will be over the final slot, and I think the top contenders will be Josh Bellamy, Zeke Markhausen and Junior Hemingway. Markhausen has more experience (though ever so slightly) over the other two, Bellamy has been turning heads in practice (though his play was a little lackluster against the Cards), and Pioli and the KC scouts obviously saw something they liked in Hemingway (though injuries have plagued his training thus far). Hemingway’s injuries haven’t just deterred the Chiefs from getting a good read on him, but the other NFL teams likely won’t risk a roster slot on him, plus his upside looks better than Markhausen, so Junior might be a prime candidate for the practice squad. This leaves Bellamy and Markhausen vying for the last slot. Zeke having enough experience to be a little more used to the speed of the game at the NFL level is reassuring; however, Bellamy has created buzz and may not stay around long if relegated to the practice squad. Additionally, Bellamy has a certain kind of experience that no other KC WR has: Bellamy played double duty, as needed, in college as both a WR and a CB. While ultimately going undrafted and getting signed by the Chiefs as a WR, Bellamy may have future stock in being crosstrained for defense. But for the here and now, Bellamy could earn a roster spot for his ST ability as his time playing D in college likely means that his tackling technique is noticeably more refined than his competitions’ at WR in KC. I expect Bellamy to continue to work hard in practice and to earn a spot on this year’s roster.

So there’s my take following Preseason Week 1. What’s your take, Addicts? Sound off…