Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

With the draft less than a week away, rumors and anticipation are reaching an all-time high with who the Kansas City Chiefs will take with their 1^st round pick. Mind you, this may all become much clearer if/when the Chiefs trade LT Brandon Albert to the Miami Dolphins.

Since this will be new General Manager John Dorsey and Head Coach Andy Reid’s first draft with the Chiefs, I wanted to look into what the two’s prior drafting tendencies were.  For Reid, I looked back to the start of his career in Philadelphia, starting back to 1999.  For Dorsey, I looked into the Green Bay Packers’ drafts dating back to 2000, when he was Director of College Scouting until 2011, then becoming their Director of Football Operations for the 2012 season.

Here is all first round picks for the two.

Philadelphia Eagles 1^st round under Reid:

2012 – Fletcher Cox – DT – Mississippi State – 12^th pick

2011 – Danny Watkins – OL – Baylor – 23^rd pick

2010 – Brandon Graham – DE – Michigan – 13^th pick

2009 – Jeremy Maclin – WR – Missouri – 19^th pick

2008 – No first round pick

2007 – No first round pick

2006 – Brodrick Bunkley – DT – Florida State – 14^th pick

2005 – Mike Patterson – DT – USC – 31^st pick

2004 – Shawn Andrews – G – Arkansas – 16^th pick

2003 – Jerome McDougle – DE – Miami (FL) – 15^th pick

2002 – Lito Sheppard – DB – Florida – 26^th pick

2001 – Freddie Mitchell – WR – UCLA – 25^th pick

2000 – Corey Simon – DT – Florida State – 6^th pick

1999 – Donovan McNabb – QB – Syracuse – 2^nd pick

Green Bay Packers 1^st round under Dorsey:

2012 – Nick Perry – DE – USC – 28^th pick

2011 – Derek Sherrod – OL – Mississippi State – 32^nd pick

2010 – Bryan Bulaga – T – Iowa – 23^rd pick

2009 – B.J. Raji – DT – Boston College – 9^th pick

2009 – Clay Matthews – LB – USC – 26^th pick

2008 – No first round pick

2007 – Justin Harrell – DT – Tennessee – 16^th pick

2006 – A.J. Hawk – LB – Ohio State – 5^th pick

2005 – Aaron Rodgers – QB – California – 24^th pick

2004 – Ahmad Carroll – DB – Arkansas – 25^th pick

2003 – Nick Barnett – LB – Oregon State – 29^th pick

2002 – Javon Walker – WR – Florida State – 20^th pick

2001 – Jamal Reynolds – DE – Florida State – 10^th pick

2000 – Bubba Franks – TE – Miami (FL) – 14^th pick

Reid chose a defensive lineman six times during his tenure, Dorsey four.  Both men drafted this position more than any other.  I know this will make Chiefs fans cringe, since it seems every draft we take a D-Lineman.  Each only took two Quarterbacks in the first round.  But with good reasons: Reid secured his franchise QB early, grabbing Donovan McNabb in 1999.  Dorsey had Brett Favre in Green Bay and wisely helped to choose Aaron Rodgers during his draft day slide in 2005.  So, both positions were handled correctly.  (It would be great if that was ever said about the Chiefs quarterback position.)  Dorsey then helped to grab three linebackers during his tenure, all key contributors to the Packers defense.  Both also drafted OL two times each.

I think it’s easy to see that both men value both sides of the line of scrimmage, totaling 14 picks between the both over their tenures with their respective teams.  Buzz with the Chiefs dating back to forever has linked them with Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M or Eric Fisher of Central Michigan.  Seeing the history, some names that have been associated with the Chiefs also were DT Sharif Floyd of Florida, OLB Dion Jordan of Oregon, DE Ezekiel Ansah of BYU, and DT Star Lotulelei of Utah.  All of these make sense due to the Dorsey and Reid’s prior tendencies.  Mind you, I am not predicting a pick; I’m just showing the tendencies of the new regime.  I will leave the pick up to you now, Addicts!

For the last two years, in addition to writing a weekly column for Arrowhead Addict, I have also been representing the Nation as the official Kansas City Chiefs Superfan for the ESPN Football Today podcast. My role and importance as a Superfan fluctuated between the show’s changing lineup of hosts, but I always found it to be a fun exercise to get my two cents discussed in a wider forum.

Nonetheless, by far the most interesting and exciting event for us 32 Superfans was not getting our nonsense reactions to the latest games read throughout the season, but the three-round mock draft we took upon ourselves to act out every year.

This was not some ordinary mock draft. We, the designated Superfans, chosen through a lengthy application process, each year went through a live action draft complete with trades and arguments with our fictitious league commissioner. This year, I discarded my oversized suit jackets and thick-rimmed glasses for a sour expression and a pinnipedal cohort.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, I tried to think like the new regime and get the best I could out of our draft capital while following what seems to be their game plan. Here’s how it went down:

Pre-Draft

Like every Chiefs fan on the planet, I was looking to trade down. If I had the chance to stay within the top 5-6, I was pretty much willing to take any offer as there would definitely be a player there that I could take and I really wanted to recoup some mid-round picks. My second priority was – if I wasn’t going to land a major trade-down – to flip LT Brandon Albert for a 2^nd and change.

I got plenty of offers to move up to #1 overall, but they all came from teams too far away for my liking. Then, the Buccaneers made a crazy trade to move up from #13 to Jacksonville’s spot at #2 in exchange for their 2014 1^st and a late 2013 pick. The Jaguars must have been desperate to look to the future and gaining as much talent as they can next year because the trade was for far less than the draft value chart would call for. It also is a bit of an indictment of the talent at the top of this year’s class. Either way, I knew a mark when I saw one and told the Bucs Superfan/GM that I had been getting offers for the #1 spot and I wasn’t sure who those teams were going for, but if he wanted to get his guy – and clearly he did – all he had to do was part with a 3^rd-rounder to move all the way to the top.

In the end, that was too rich for his blood, but I took a 4^th off of him in the end and moved down to #2 overall. I then turned my attention to Albert. Like the real Chiefs, I was shopping him loud and hard. A couple of teams inquired, but I wanted to get a deal done before I had to actually make my pick. In the end, I took the Raven’s 2^nd-round (#62) and 5^th-round (#165) picks for our franchised left tackle. It would have been nice to get a higher 2^nd, but this still gave the team plenty of capital.

At this point, through compensatory picks and trades, my Chiefs team had regained a 2^nd and had two picks in rounds 3, 4, 5 and 6. But, that was to be short-lived.

We didn’t fully lay down the rules this year, and several of the teams complained that it made things too complicated to trade current players. I protested. The Philadelphia Superfan/GM then pointed out that Baltimore doesn’t have near enough space to pick up Albert’s contract in the first place and, while one could assume they would negotiate a cap-friendly long-term deal with him post-trade, that was just a bridge too far. The trade was voided.

In fact, only 12 teams have the cap space to be able to absorb Albert’s contract at the moment according to (the fabulous follow) the Film Room on Twitter. Those teams are: the Eagles, the Bills, the Pats, the Jags, the Cards, the Colts, the Jets, the Packers, the Bengals, the Browns, and the Bucs. All other teams would have to cut players to make space.

Unfortunately, the drama over the Albert trade erupted after I had already drafted his replacement – Luke Joeckel – 2^nd overall. Still, if the Chiefs can trade down and still get either Jockel or Fisher, they should count themselves lucky regardless of what happens with Albert.

Feb 23, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Texas A

Thus, the Nick-led Chiefs would forego any picks in the 2^nd round and it would next come around to us at pick #63.

Here’s how rounds 1 & 2 panned out overall.

Round 1

1 Tampa Bay via Kansas City via Jacksonville – CB Dee Milliner

2 Kansas City via Tampa Bay via Jacksonville – OT Luke Joeckel

3 Oakland – OT Eric Fisher

4 Philadelphia – OLB Dion Jordan

5 Detroit – DE Ezekiel Ansah

6 Cleveland – OLB Jarvis Jones

7 Arizona – OG Chance Warmack

8 San Diego via Buffalo – OT Lane Johnson

9 New York Jets – DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo

10 Tennessee – DT Shariff Floyd

11 Buffalo via San Diego – QB Geno Smith

12 Miami – CB Xavier Rhodes

13 Jacksonville via Tampa Bay – WR Tavon Austin

14 Carolina – DT Sheldon Richardson

15 Cincinnati via New Orleans – S Kenny Vaccaro

16 St. Louis – DT Star Lotulelei (steal of the day)

17 Pittsburg – OG John Cooper

18 Dallas – DT Sylvester Williams

19 New York Giants – ILB Alec Ogletree

20 Chicago – DE Damontre Moore

21 New Orleans via Cincinnati – DT Jesse Williams

22 St. Louis via Washington – WR Keenan Allen

23 San Francisco via Minnesota – DE Margus Hunt

24 Indianapolis – WR DeAndre Hopkins

25 Minnesota via Seattle – DE Datone Jones

26 Green Bay – S Matt Elam

27 Buffalo via Houston – WR Cordarrelle Patterson

28 Denver – DE Bjoern Werner (2^nd steal of the day)

29 New England – CD Desmond Trufant

30 Atlanta – CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson

31 San Francisco – DT John Jenkins

32 Baltimore – ILB Manti Te’o

Round 2

33 Jacksonville – OT D.J. Fluker

34 Arizona via Kansas City through San Francisco and Minnesota – QB E.J. Manuel

35 Philadelphia – S Eric Reid

36 Detroit – LB Arthur Brown

37 Cincinnati via Oakland – RB Eddy Lacy

38 Minnesota via Arizona – Quinton Patton

39 New York Jets – TE Tyler Eifert

40 Tennessee – DE Tank Carradine

41 Houston – WR Justin Hunter

42 Miami – OT Menelik Watson

43 Tampa Bay –  CB D.J. Hayden

44 Carolina – OT Reid Fragel

45 San Diego – OG Justin Pugh

46 St. Louis – S Jonathan Cyprien (STL was killin’ it)

47 Dallas – OG Larry Warford

48 Houston via Pittsburg – MLB Kevin Minter

49 New York Giants – CB Jonathan Banks

50 Baltimore via Chicago – S D.J. Swearinger

51 Washington – CB Jamar Taylor

52 Minnesota – WR Aaron Dobson

53 New Orleans via Cincinnati – OT Terron Armstead

54 Miami – DE Alex Okafor

55 Green Bay – DT Kawaan Short

56 Seattle – TE Zach Ertz

57 Pittsburg via Houston – DT John Hankins

58 Denver – WR Robert Woods

59 New England – WR Terrence Williams

60 Atlanta – DE Sam Montgomery

61 Tampa Bay via San Francisco – QB Ryan Nassib

62 Chicago via Baltimore – OT/OG Dallas Thomas

Sitting at the top of the 3^rd round, I had a lot of choices and some good players had fallen. Obviously, ILB is the Chiefs only glaring hole, but it is also a position where you can find some good players later in the draft. When it comes to premiere positions where you want to load up on talent, I think pass rusher is the next place the Chiefs should add a body. With Andy Studebaker (who was no world-beater) gone, can you name the team’s #3 outside linebacker? Didn’t think so.

Mike Mayock’s 2^nd-rated 3-4 outside linebacker is a guy probably few of you have heard of – not Barkevious Mingo, nope, he put Jamie Collins above him, right after Dion Jordon. Few know Jamie Collins because he was playing in the witness protection program down in Southern Mississippi, a team that didn’t win a single game in 2012. But, if you look at Collins’ tape, he definitely stands out as a high-motor, highly skilled guy with the speed to go all over the field as basically the only bright spot on that defense.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

We need a guy to rotate and develop with OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston because currently we have no depth and Tamba turns the big 30 this year. So, I grabbed Collins, who I think is a steal at that spot.

Later in the round, I was still able to get my ILB target. I know there are lots of Arthur Brown fans on this site, but Oregon’s Kiko Alonso looks to me like Manti Te’o, just underrated rather than overrated and with a real, live girlfriend.

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

This is how the 3^rd round went overall:

Round 3

63 Kansas City – OLB Jamie Collins

64 Jacksonville – CB Darius Slay

65 Detroit – OT Kyle Long

66 Oakland – CB David Amerson

67 Philadelphia – DE William Ghoston

68 Cleveland – S Shawn Williams

69 Arizona – C/G Travis Frederick

70 Tennessee – CB Jordan Poyer

71 Buffalo – TE Gavin Escobar

72 New York Jets – S Tony Jefferson

73 San Francisco via Tampa Bay – TE Travis Kelce

74 Minnesota via San Francisco – DT Brandon Williams

75 Cincinnati via New Orleans – OLB Sio Moore

76 Baltimore via San Diego – -OT Luke Marquardt

77 Miami – CB Robert Alford

78 St. Louis – RB Marcus Lattimore

79 Pittsburg – RB Giovanni Bernard

80 Chicago via Dallas – LB Khaseem Greene

81 New York Giants – OLB Corey Lemonier

82 Miami – C Barrett Jones

83 Minnesota – S Phillip Thomas

84 New Orleans via Cincinnati – OLB Trevardo Williams

85 New York Jets via Washington – RB Jonathan Franklin

86 Indianapolis – OL Brian Schwenke

87 Seattle – WR Da’Rick Rogers

88 Green Bay – RB Montee Ball

89 Houston – QB Tyler Wilson

90 Denver – RB Le’Veon Bell

91 New England – WR Ryan Swope

92 Atlanta – TE Vance McDonald

93 San Francisco – RB Mike Millislee

94 San Diego via Baltimore – CB Leon Sandcastle … err McFadden

95 Houston – WR Markus Wheaton

96 Kansas City – ILB Kiko Alonso

97 Tennessee – WR Steadman Bailey

To see the full spreadsheet, plus explanations for the picks from the other Superfans, click here.

So what do you think, Addicts? Did I do the right thing? Who would you have picked?

The Kansas City Chiefs may be in the worst possible position to get good value out of the 2013 NFL Draft. Normally, having the first overall pick is seen as a reward. Just a few months ago Chiefs fans were celebrating the fact that despite their season of agony, they would at least have that coveted first pick. Then they got a good look at the players available.

The thing is, this isn’t a bad draft class. There are lots of good players. So many in fact that there are going to be several first round caliber players still on the board in the 2nd round. There just doesn’t appear to be any franchise changing elite players at the top of the draft. So to recap, the best value in the draft is in the mid to late first round and early second round. Exactly where the Chiefs aren’t drafting.

That’s why I said they are in the worst position to get good value. Teams drafting in the mid to late first round will get good value with their first round pick and teams drafting at the top of the draft, while maybe not getting an elite player in the first, are at least rewarded with the ability to get another first round caliber player at the top of the second round. Unless of course you’ve traded away your second round pick.

Now, I’m not bashing Alex Smith. In fact, I’m slowly coming around to the idea of him and Andy Reid leading the KC offense. I’m not anti-Alex, I was just pro-Geno and high on the value that was going to be available for KC’s 2nd round pick. I get why Dorsey did it though. In a year when many experts think there isn’t a good starting QB in the entire draft (cue discussion #1,272 on if Geno Smith will succeed or not), Dorsey was able to get his day one starting QB for a 2nd rounder. That’s not bad value (although other QBs like Carson Palmer and Matt Flynn are going for less). It just means that Dorsey traded away the ability to get value out of the draft in return for his starting QB.

That’s why John Dorsey needs to prove his worth and make a deal in order to get back into the 2nd round and get the most out of his first draft as KC’s GM. If the Chiefs stay put they are currently in position to get one starting (and hopefully Pro Bowl caliber) player with the first pick and then won’t pick again until pick #63. In a draft where the best value available is probably in picks #15-50 that’s not great positioning. Could KC land a day one starter with pick #63? Yes, but usually 3rd round picks start more as role players and if you’re lucky then they eventually turn into starters.

So if KC wants more then one day one impact player from this draft class John Dorsey needs to make a move. The most likely deal is that he moves Branden Albert to the Dolphins for their 2nd round pick (#42). Many KC fans don’t like this move. I’ve stated before in posts that my basic feeling is that if they don’t like Alert (for whatever reason) we might as well get something for him. However, that may force KC to stay put at #1 overall to draft his replacement. Trading the first pick would be the other obvious way to pick up another pick or two and get more value out of this draft. However, other teams are looking at the same draft board we are and may be unlikely to trade up in a draft short on elite talent. As has been discussed on multiple occasions, the best hope KC has is that somebody wants to move up to take Geno Smith since QBs are typically the only position worth trading up to #1 for (cue discussion #1,273 on wether or not Geno is worth it or not). The final option would be to see if Dorsey could perhaps package his two 3rd round picks in return for moving up into the early to mid 2nd round if there was a certain player they felt was worth it.

Bottom line, I really want KC to get back into the 2nd round of this draft. I believe there is a good chance that a player that they could get in the #30-50 range could end up having just as much of an impact as the player they take with their first pick. Here are a list of some of the players that are in the #30-50 range on most big boards:

Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford
Eric Reid – S – LSU
Matt Elam – S – Florida
Kevin Minter – LB – LSU
Arthur Brown – LB – KSU
Eddie Lacy – RB – Alabama
DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson
Robert Woods – WR – USC
Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee

So what do you think Addicts? Do you want KC to get back into the 2nd round as badly as I do? Do you have faith that new GM John Dorsey can get it done? Are you okay with trading away Albert, the first overall pick, or our two 3rd round picks in order to get it done? I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!

Say what you will about the moves that new Chiefs GM John Dorsey and head coach Andy Reid have made since they took control of the team, but one thing is clear. They are men of action. Since taking control they have systematically been remaking the roster. If you step back and look at everything they have done and how they have gone about doing it, a clear game plan emerges.

Step 1 – Evaluate the current roster and decide who you want to keep and who needs to go.

Dorsey and Reid clearly wanted to keep Dwayne Bowe. They decided Eric Winston was disposable. They franchised Branden Albert, but what exactly they plan to do with him remains uncertain. Finally, they decided that their QB was NOT on the roster they inherited from former Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.

Step 2 – Find their QB.

If you believe published media reports, Andy Reid took the KC job with the idea of bringing Alex Smith to KC to be his QB. Rumors of Smith to KC surfaced early on, but there was nothing concrete at that time. That changed after the combine. Shortly after the combine ended, reports surfaced saying that KC had agreed to a deal that would bring Smith to KC. So it appears to me that Reid told Dorsey that he wanted Smith, but they decided to wait to finalize anything until after they saw the QB draft prospects up close at the combine. Apparently they didn’t see anything at the combine that changed Reid’s mind. They dealt for Smith after the combine and Dorsey said at the press conference that Smith would be their starter for the foreseeable future. If any further proof was still needed to show that they weren’t going to commit very much to a rookie QB in this year’s draft they went out and committed multiple years and millions of dollars to Chase Daniel to be the #2 QB. The latest draft reports (i.e., rumor or smokescreen) is that the Chiefs are still strongly considering Geno Smith. My advice to KC fans would be to put no faith in those reports. A QB that is worth taking #1 overall is a valuable commodity. It is in KC’s best interest to sell Geno as just that in hopes of getting someone to trade up with them to take him. I believe the Chiefs have the QBs that will sit at one and two on the depth chart already on the roster. Now the #3 spot? Let’s just say that I don’t think Ricky Stanzi should get too comfortable.

Step 3 – Fill roster holes with solid (but not “super star”) free agent signings.

Reid and Dorsey have added several solid players that have upgraded the overall talent on the roster without breaking the bank for any one player. These signings include: Dunta Robinson, Sean Smith, Anthony Fasano, Mike DeVito, Donnie Avery, and Geoff Schwartz.

Step 4 – Thoroughly evaluate the draft prospects and set their draft board.

This is where the Chiefs are right now. They have reportedly had private work outs with multiple possible first round selections. Including:

Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Eric Fisher, OL, Central Michigan
Sharrif Floyd, DL, Florida
Luke Joeckel, OL, Texas A&M
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia
Dion Jordan, DL, Oregon
Dee Milliner, DB, Alabama
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

It appears to me that KC is taking a good look at the top 10 prospects in the draft. This could be in part because they want to do their homework on just who they will take at #1, but it could also prepare them for a trade down within the top 10. It doesn’t appear that KC is spending a lot of time looking at prospects that are projected to go in the the second half of the first round. Since the only people that would move up to #1 are teams looking for a QB and all of those teams are picking in the top 10 that’s a smart move.

Step 5 – ???????

I’m really curious to see what comes next. Will the team wait to make any other major moves before the draft? What will they do with Branden Albert? Will they be able to move back in the draft? I think those last two are related. If the team’s top priority is trading Albert then I think it lessons the chance that they’ll trade back from #1. With Albert gone they would have to get a top LT prospect and even if they just traded back to around 8-9 there is a chance that the top LTs could all be gone. The only way I see them trading Albert and the top pick is if they can work a deal in the top 4 picks.

I also think that an Albert trade would need to be completed before the start of the draft. Albert made it known that he doesn’t want to play anywhere except LT, everybody knows that now. So if KC drafts a LT at #1 and then tries to trade Albert, teams will use that against them. Right now KC can tell teams that if they can’t get good value for Albert that they’ll just keep him to play LT and draft another position in the first round.

That’s why I’m anxious to see if anything happens in the next few weeks. If Dorsey and Reid REALLY liked one of the LTs that they visited and are set on drafting him at #1 I think we could see Albert moved in the coming days. If they weren’t really sold on the left tackles then they may focus on trying to deal the #1 pick and keeping Albert for another season.

If I were running the show I’d trade Albert right now to Miami for their top 2nd round pick. I’d then use the money I saved on dealing Albert to sign Andre Smith away from Cincinnati. With my RT taken care of I’d see if I could get a team like Jax or Philly to come up to #1 to take Geno in return for their 2nd round pick as well. If they would do it, great, we can still take a top tackle in the 1st to replace Albert and we have two early 2nd round picks. If not, we take a LT at #1 and still have both tackle spots filled and a 2nd round pick.

So what do you think Addicts? What is Dorsey and Reid’s next move? Will we get any more answers soon? They clearly have a plan that they’re sticking to. I just wish I knew what it was. I do feel confident that these guys do have a clear cut plan and that so far they have done a nice job of improving the roster. I’m anxious to hear what you think in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Feb 22, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

When the 2012 NFL season ended in a disappointing 2-14 record for the Kansas City Chiefs, the one silver lining was the fact they had earned the first overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. While the class of quarterbacks is significantly lower than recent years (read: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, etc.) the Chiefs were certain that no matter who was running the show at One Arrowhead Drive, they would draft a quarterback. When the new head coach was introduced as Andy Reid, fans rejoiced at the news, knowing Reid’s history and what he could do with young quarterbacks (read: Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick.) When Clark Hunt introduced his new general manager as John Dorsey of Green Bay Packer fame, fans practically began salivating at the thought of Geno Smith in a Chiefs jersey. After all, this was the guy who drafted Aaron Rodgers. Right?

With news of the Alex Smith trade with the San Francisco 49ers, along with a Dorsey press conference where he downplayed the caliber of college quarterbacks in this year’s draft, the hopes that the Smith starting under center this season would be wearing #12, and not #11 were dashed. At that point, everyone was pretty certain what the Chiefs would be doing in the draft. Add this to the fact that the duo had signed Drew Brees’ understudy, Chase Daniel, to hold Alex Smith’s clipboard this season, and the chance of the Chiefs drafting a QB in any round higher than four are pretty much nil. While some still hold onto hope that Dorsey and Reid will call Smith’s (Geno that is) number on April 25^th, I think we can all call that a pipe-dream at this point.

The consensus from most draft experts on who will be picked number one has  focused mainly on the exceptional crop of offensive linemen in this year’s class. Most experts are convinced the Chiefs will either draft Luke Joeckel from Texas A & M, Eric Fisher from Central Michigan or Lane Johnson from Oklahoma. This theory has gained even more steam after the Chiefs released Eric Winston. However, in a surprising move, the Chiefs leadership signed offensive tackle Geoff Schwartz from the Vikings at the end of the week. This may have been a depth move as Schwartz hasn’t been a full-time starter in the NFL as of yet, or perhaps the duo of Dorsey and Reid may see something in him that other teams haven’t and have him pegged as their “day one” starter at the right tackle position. With the young talent already on the offensive line in Kansas City, it would seem a waste to bring in another lineman, regardless of the talent level in the draft.

So as the free agency period has gone from shopping at Macy’s to shopping at K-Mart in the level of talent and value, the ultimate question remains. What do the Chiefs do with the coveted number one overall pick? While many think the Chiefs will draft the best player available, signs seem to be pointing more and more to the Chiefs trading out of the number one slot. Who should they trade with and what could that trade bring? Let’s take a look at some possibilities.

In examining possible trade scenarios one would have to think that unless the deal was overinflated and too good not to pass up, the Chiefs would probably not want to trade out of the top ten picks. Looking at the teams in the top ten, there are a few who have a significant need at quarterback. While it’s been said again and again Geno Smith isn’t worth the number one pick, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. To a team without a starting caliber quarterback, it would seem that not picking up a signal caller is more risky than over-reaching and drafting one with the top pick. Of the teams in the top ten, four teams (Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona and Buffalo) have a significant need at quarterback and a fifth team (Philadelphia) has expressed great interest in Geno Smith.

The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted signal caller Blaine Gabbert two years ago, in 2011, with the tenth overall pick in the draft. His performance has been less than inspiring. As such, they may be ready to scrap the Gabbert experiment and move on to another quarterback. As the Jaguars draft in the number two position, the only way they would trade to move up is if they were that desperate to dump Gabbert (which I’m not 100 percent sold on) and if they seriously thought the Chiefs might draft Smith away from them. The eventuality of both of these scenarios is slim, not making them a likely trade partner.

The next team with a quarterback need is the Oakland Raiders drafting in the third position. I will only say that if Reid and Dorsey trade with the Raiders and allow them to get Smith, their career in Kansas City will most likely end before it starts. The goal here should be to keep Smith away from Oakland as much as anything else.

The Arizona Cardinals’ quarterback woes have been about as well publicized as the Kansas City Chiefs’. Just like the Chiefs, they had more than one starter at quarterback last year. Just like the Chiefs, they just released one of those starters from last season, Kevin Kolb. And, just like the Chiefs, they used the off-season to bring in another quarterback. The free agent they signed is Drew Stanton, former back up to the rookie phenomenon Andrew Luck in Indianapolis. Whether or not Stanton is to be the future of the Arizona franchise remains to be seen. However, the team has indicated Stanton was brought in to start, especially considering the ties Stanton has with new Cardinals’ head coach, Bruce Arians whose previous job was offensive coordinator with the Colts. All in all, the Cardinals don’t seem willing to give up the farm to trade into the number one position.

There have been reports this last week, that the Philadelphia Eagles were not only present at the West Virginia pro-day, but put Geno Smith through a “grueling” workout. The Eagles, under new leadership of Chip Kelly, seem to be collecting quarterbacks. Previous starter, Michael Vick is still under contract as is second year man Nick Foles who was drafted by the Chiefs’ own Andy Reid during his tenure there. Additionally, the Eagles signed quarterback Dennis Dixson, a former Kelly protégé, indicating they are full at the QB position. All these factors point to the fact that their pro-day interest in Smith is nothing more than a bluff, as they likely won’t spend a high, first round pick on a quarterback.

A trade with the Buffalo Bills offers a mutually beneficial scenario. In case you aren’t glued to Twitter and the NFL Network like I’ve been the last week (much to my wife’s chagrin, by the way) you may not know that the Bills cut their starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The move leaves the Bills with Tarvaris Jackson as their starting quarterback. In a QB starved market the Bills will likely be looking to the draft to find their hope. The only problem is, currently they’re scheduled to draft eighth overall. This could create a problem for them in getting the best QB available, which I think at this point everyone universally agrees is Geno Smith, because Jacksonville, Oakland, Philadelphia and Arizona draft in front of them and all three could potentially have interest in and draft Geno Smith.

The Bills are desperate at this point and could potentially be the most likely trade partner with the Chiefs in order to snag their franchise QB. In doing this, the Chiefs could stand to gain a substantial amount of picks. If you use last year’s trade for the #2 overall pick between the St. Louis Rams and the Washington Redskins as a guide, the teams swapped picks in the first round and the Redskins gave up their second round pick as well as their 2013 first rounder and their 2014 first rounder.

Now, I don’t think the Bills are quite as desperate to get Geno Smith as the Skins were to draft RGIII, but I don’t think swapping first rounders, a second rounder this year and next year’s second round pick are completely out of the question. That could put the Chiefs in a pretty good spot moving forward. Dorsey and Reid have both said they intend to build this team through the draft. This would be the way to do it. As an added benefit, the sting many fans are feeling from the two picks spent on Alex Smith would be significantly lessened if we gained these picks back in a trade out of the top spot.

If the Chiefs pulled off this trade, they would still most likely be able to get one of the linemen they’ve had their eye on throughout this process. Lane Johnson is projected to go at around the 11^th pick, so they would be able to get their hands on him, at least. Depending on how the rest of the board fell, they might even be able to swing Fisher. Regardless, it would be the best possible scenario for the team to fall into.

I know there are potentially dozens of scenarios that could play out in the month and a half leading up to the draft. If there’s one you think more likely than outlined here, please let me know. I’d love to hear some of the ideas that are floating around out there.

Whichever way this shakes out, it’s going to be interesting to watch. It’s not even April yet and I already can’t wait to smell wings cooking and taste ice cold beer on a Sunday afternoon. I went crazy with my predictions last year and how I thought the Chiefs were going to perform after what I thought was a great free agency. I’m cautiously optimistic this year, but I’m not declaring us Superbowl bound quite yet. I’ve come to learn, as many of you have, that the truth is in winning football games. We haven’t had a whole lot of truth around here in a while. Here’s hoping this year we don’t get lied to again.

That’s how I see it Addicts. What say you?

Kansas City Chiefs GM John Dorsey and head coach Andy Reid preside over a Chiefs Kingdom that is as unstable and divided as perhaps any other time in the last two decades. Matters became even more complicated yesterday when the news broke that the team has decided to hitch its wagon to 49ers QB Alex Smith, for the foreseeable future.

The 2012 season was all about change, as far as Chiefs fans were concerned. The KC faithful wanted a new QB, a new coach and a new GM.

And they got them.

Yet, among a fan base that protested so aggressively for change in 2012, going so far as to fly banners over Arrowhead Stadium before games, no amount of change seems to be good enough.

As editor of this site, I interact with dozens of Chiefs fans on a daily basis, whether it be in the comments of our posts, on our Facebook page or through our Twitter account. In the recent weeks since the arrival of  Dorsey and Reid, I’ve noticed that Chiefs fans seem to still be feeling a great deal of discontent.

Just weeks ago, all KC fans seemed to want was for former GM Scott Pioli to be fired and for incumbent starting QB Matt Cassel to be sent out of town. The once patient and supportive fans, many of whom proudly wrote or stated the words “in Pioli we trust” in 2009 and 2010, turned on the new regime in 2012 when it became clear that their trust was misguided.

Unlike in 2009, when long-time GM Carl Peterson and bumbling head coach Herm Edwards were ousted from Kansas City, Chiefs fans haven’t been as quick to cozy up to Dorsey and Reid as they were to Pioli and Haley. Peterson had been a fixture in Kansas City for so long that any replacement was likely to be given a hero’s welcome. So when Scott Pioli came riding into town, his Super Bowl rings glistening in the sunlight, the smooth-talking GM from New England was able to interject a fair amount of propaganda into the minds of his new subjects.

Pioli quickly injected buzzwords and slogans into the Chiefs blogosphere and radio airwaves by repeating his mantras over and over and by making a few well-position contacts in the media. By 2012, you would have been hard-pressed to find a fan that hadn’t heard the words “right 53″ and “process” and “substance over sizzle” from either Pioli himself or their fellow fans.

I even wrote a column about the seemingly blind Scott Pioli following in May of 2011.

It was called “In Pioli We Trust: A Ridiculous Notion.”

Look, there is nothing wrong with trust. There is nothing wrong with initially deferring to the expertise of the guys getting paid to make the decisions. There is nothing wrong with being passionate and hoping that every move your GM makes is the right one. Fan is short for fanatic. This website is called Arrowhead ADDICT. We get it.

But to go around muttering “In Pioli We Trust” after every move the man makes is not only short sighted but it closes one off to any sort of useful critical thinking. Attacking another fan and questioning their devotion to their favorite team because they dared question the organization’s moves is the same kind of childish bullying you’d expect to find at your local junior high.

Chiefs Nation has come a long way since 2011. The pendulum has swung so far in the other direct that it appears nothing will satisfy Chiefs fans.

In fact, the fans seem so split on what they think the new regime should do to fix the 2014 mess Pioli and last year’s head coach Romeo Crennel left behind, that if left in the hands of the masses, the QB for the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs would be:

Nobody.

We like to look at things from every angle on Arrowhead Addict. It’s been a tradition on this site since the beginning to explore different viewpoints and scenarios. This offseason, however, while some of our suggested scenarios are more popular than others, there doesn’t seem to be a single solution that most fans agree on.

To illustrate this, I took to Twitter to ask the opinions of fans on a number of Chiefs-related topics. Keep in mind that I did this just hours before the Alex Smith trade was announced.

The Chiefs should draft Geno Smith #1.

@arrowheadaddict there is no better option!!!

— Jerry Mason (@J_rome101) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict if they can’t get Alex Smith for a reasonable trade, you’ve got to. What other options do we have? We can draft a QB later

— Cody Breuer (@1509Cody) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict absolutely love the idea! He looked like a stud at #NFLCombine sound like he got intangibles to give away!!

— Joey Butler (@rabidcop109) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Atrocious.

— Cameron Hastings (@CameronHastings) February 27, 2013

 

@arrowheadaddict as long as that means keeping Albert then do it!!

— Jason P (@jpp_77) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict 6’2, average accuracy, Alex smith fits our offense perfectly, and we have more major needs (LT, CB, WR) — Joe Mike Favoroso (@Favoroso10) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I’d rather the Chiefs draft Tyler Wilson in the second-round. I see a lot of upside with Wilson. — Brandon Fix (@xX_Flash_Xx) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict sure he ran a good 40 time, but he played his last year in the big 12, all offense and no defense. Had 1 great game.

— Cameron Hastings (@CameronHastings) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict seems like the top of the draft is filled with bad ideas…hence wanting to trade out, and nobody wanting to trade up.

— TheFilmRoom (@TheFilmRoom) February 27, 2013

Should the Chiefs trade for Alex Smith? As long as they don’t give up a pick higher than a 3rd?

@arrowheadaddict I’ve moved around to “No.” Too big of a contract for a back-up. Not good enough player to be the long-term starter. — Nicholas Clayton (@ClaytonNicholas) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict 3rd is the max I’d give.I wish they could part with him for just a 4th. — Edward Pendleton (@TenEightEP) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict yes! Then draft McCarron, Wilson, or Murray later in the draft.

— Cody Breuer (@1509Cody) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict do it.

— levy (@molevy24_7) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Reid would get him to his ceiling. If they believe that ceiling is a consistent pro-bowler (even Cassel made it once) do it — Edward Pendleton (@TenEightEP) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict nope, too much is needed this year (OL, CB, LB), possibly a 4th round pick though — They Love Nosa (@EkeTheGreat3) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict no…I think Kolb has a chance to be cut…and UFA stop gaps like Campbell, Hasselbeck may be available.

— TheFilmRoom (@TheFilmRoom) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Dude has zero swagger, zero heart, zero leadership abilities. I dont like him at all.Chiefs fans will be very disappointed

— ♠ESSESS♌ (@scooterloc303) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Alex smith isn’t a great QB. I’d rather us draft geno and take Matt Moore from Miami — K. Sparks(@Sully_sparks) February 27, 2013

Even for a third, it was clear that a fair portion of the folks I talked to were not sold on Alex Smith. So when the news broke that Smith had been acquired for what is believed to be a second-round selection and 2013 and what could turn into a second-round selection in 2014, there was a fair amount of outrage.

I then asked folks if they trusted Andy Reid and John Dorsey to make the right decision. Here are some of the responses I received.

Do you trust John Dorsey and Andy Reid to make the right decision, no matter what they decide?

@arrowheadaddict Yes.I trust them to make the right decision…

— David Thresher (@Dazdpgc329) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I’m hesitantly optimistic — FanmanKC (@fanmankc) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I have no clue, I treated poili when he started, never Haley though — Sean Combrink(@seancombrink) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict As long as they at least draft a QB in the first 3 rounds, plus adding a veteran.

— Kevin Reed (@Reedk12) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I trust in no one, no matter what they decide. They get the benefit of the doubt, and I will watch with healthy skepticism.

— Nicholas Clayton (@ClaytonNicholas) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Yes.Let it all play out before jumping to conclusions. — Ryan Schave (@Schave29) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I trust them mistakes will be made no matter the staff though gotta give faith in our management or they will never succeed — Carl Meck (@carlmeck1) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict what was the point in hiring them if we don’t trust them? They’ll do what’s right.

— Alex Boyer (@AlexBoyer90) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict no…eagles were awful, Reid thinks he can win with any QB

— K. Sparks(@Sully_sparks) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict more than Pioli, yes, yes, yes. — Adrian Waller (@awaller1990) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict no…that’s too much to ask…they will make mistakes, as early as this draft…hope averages in their favor. — TheFilmRoom (@TheFilmRoom) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict you don’t give trust away for free. It must be earned.

— charlieg (@funderpunt) February 27, 2013

Do you trust Dorsey and Reid as much as you trusted Pioli and Haley when they arrived?

@arrowheadaddict Same

— Kevin Reed (@Reedk12) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Reid=more; Dorsey=slightly less. Pioli was more highly regarded coming in…proven wrong later. — Jeffrey B. Herman (@JBHermanMD) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I’ve been wronged. I’ll never trust again. — Nicholas Clayton (@ClaytonNicholas) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I trust Reid more than Crennel. I respect Dorsey more than Pioli…I wouldn’t call it trust yet.

— Scott Mahurin (@Esinem79) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict more for Reid over Haley. About same for Dorsey & Pioli

— Nate Taylor (@taylonr) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I do trust them, but being a Kansas City sports fan makes me skeptical of everything if I’m honest — Jeff Herr (@TheJeffReport) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict let me change my vote to a flat NO. I can’t get my head around his contract. $7.5M too much for Cassel 2.0 — Scott Mahurin (@Esinem79) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict less because I thought Pioli was a genius when hired. Boy was I wrong!

— Joshua Yates (@joshujy) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict back then I felt like I HAD to trust since Pioli represented the Patriot Way, even though I loathe the Pats

— Adrian Waller (@awaller1990) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Dorsey seems like pioli to me. Never tells us what we want to hear. Very low key. Not a fan — Louie Thompson (@Louie_Thompson) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict in the back of my head, yes, but at the same time dorsey has done nothing as GM of the Chiefs for me not to trust him. — levy (@molevy24_7) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict We’ve been burned before. It’s always good to be a little cautious, but it shouldn’t stop you from being optimistic either.

— Mike (@vidae01) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict I’m more cautious now because I feel like a spouse that just got cheated on. It’s hard to trust.

— Michael Tavis (@MichaelTavis) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict more cautious now b/c of Pioli debacle and lack of consensus top pick. — Jeffrey B. Herman (@JBHermanMD) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict more. Greater history/track record of success — Jeff Herr (@TheJeffReport) February 27, 2013

Who do you want to be the starting QB of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013?

@arrowheadaddict I want Ryan Mallett! Screw Alex Smith, do you remember hay we did to him when he came to arrowhead? #NoThanks

— Spencer Mathews (@DiSpencer4Hire) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Geno Smith

— Ted Glass (@TedGlassKC) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Geno Smith. — Mike (@vidae01) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Smith. Alex Smith. — levy (@molevy24_7) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Barkley or Alex Smith

— Kevin Reed (@Reedk12) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict #A.Smith

— Da #Chiefsnation (@Chieffan28) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Geno. — Edward Pendleton (@TenEightEP) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Smith, either Alex or Geno. — Carl Meck (@carlmeck1) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict nick foles

— Grant White (@grantwhiteshark) February 27, 2013

Aaron Rodgers “@arrowheadaddict: Last one. Just give me a name. Who do you want to be the starting QB of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013.”

— K. Sparks(@Sully_sparks) February 27, 2013

@arrowheadaddict Alex smith with geno as the back up.

— Michael Tavis (@MichaelTavis) February 27, 2013

Matt Cassel – @arrowheadaddict: Last one. Just give me a name. Who do you want to be the starting QB of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013.

— Chris Allen (@CA_AllDay702) February 27, 2013

The group seemed to slightly favor Geno Smith, which is understandable. Chiefs fans have seen just about every scenario, save drafting a first round QB, fail miserably in Kansas City. They’ve seen a parade of former San Francisco QBs brought in, only to fail. They’ve seen a high-profile trade for Matt Cassel fail. Drafting a QB in the first round, just to draft a QB in the first round, isn’t guaranteed to pay off. While Chiefs fans are smart enough to realize that, much like when Pioli replaced Carl Peterson, I think things have been so bad that anything different automatically becomes more appealing.

As the comments above showed, nobody is running around saying “in Dorsey I trust.” The fans want to believe the men running their favorite team are going to do the right but years of failure seems to have tempered expectations.

When Scott Pioli traded a second-round selection for Matt Cassel and Mike “intangibles” Vrabel, the reaction in KC was mostly positive. There were murmurs of the “draft your own QB”  argument but for the most part, as I recall anyway, fans were excited about the possibility of acquiring a franchise QB in Cassel.

Dorsey and Reid aren’t like to be given the same level of fan patience that their predecessors enjoyed. Pioli and Cassel were able to turn in a 2-14 season in 2009 and they emerge relatively unscathed. I think this was, in large part, due to Pioli’s propaganda and the misguided trust of a frustrated fan base. Chiefs fans were sold a bill of goods by Pioli that they had to be patient while he “rebuilt” their team. They were asked to allow the “process” to run its course.

Well, when the process was complete, Pioli left the Chiefs exactly how he found them.

2-14.

Just as Pioli and co. received their fair share of unearned trust, Reid and Dorsey are being served up a cold dish of apprehension from Chiefs fans who have eaten at this restaurant before.

I don’t envy the new regime. They were facing a lose/lose situation.

If they drafted a QB No. 1 and the QB busted, they would have look like fools for reaching for the position when all the experts (well most of them) the 2013 QB class just wasn’t very good.

If they pass on Geno Smith, which it is almost a certainty that they will, and he is drafted by the Raiders a couple picks later and Smith develops into a star, while the KC brass goes with an Alex Smith, they will be driven out of town faster than you can say “Romeo Crennel”

If they had tried to build their team around a second-round QB from a weak QB draft class and fail, they’ll be equally panned as if they had reached for the position at No. 1.

We don’t know exactly how the Alex Smith trade will work out in KC. We don’t know which team will draft Geno Smith and Matt Barkley and we don’t know what kind of careers they and the other QBs in this draft class, will have.

Chiefs fans were so divided on what they thought  Reid and Dorsey should do, there was going to be a sizable portion of them that were upset no matter what happened at the QB position.

I’ve seen plenty of angry tweets and comments calling the new regime a bunch of fools. I’ve also received messages from fans stating their support and trust of the new regime.

Now that Reid and Dorsey’s vision for the Chiefs is beginning to take shape, it is important for fans to take a lesson from the Scott Pioli era. Now isn’t the time  to throw Dorsey and Reid to the wolves based on the failures of the men that have come before them.

On the other hand, Chiefs fans have no choice but to demand that Dorsey and Reid earn the same level of trust that Pioli was given merely for showing up four years ago. Trust earned, not simply for doing something new, like selecting a QB in the first round, or through propaganda-laced catch phrases and buzzwords. Trust earned, not simply because they aren’t the Scott Pioli regime and because Alex Smith isn’t Matt Cassel.

They’ll have to earn their trust the old-fashioned way: by winning.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs GM John Dorsey is at the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine and he has gone on the record as saying that the team could re-sign LT Branden Albert and draft top tackle prospect Luke Joeckel with the No.1 overall pick.

Dorsey talked with Adam Teicher, Chiefs beat reporter for the Kansas City Star, Saturday. According to Teicher, Dorsey said everything is on the table.

From the Star:

“Then you have great competition at left tackle,’’ said Dorsey, speaking at the NFL Scouting Combine, of the combination of re-signing Albert and drafting Joeckel . “Who’s to say both of those guys are locked in to playing left tackle? Maybe one plays left guard, center, right guard, right tackle. You put your best five offensive linemen out there.

“There are so many options out there right now. Anything is possible.’’

Can you imagine what would happen if the Chiefs drafted Joeckel after re-sgning Branden Albert? I think the whole of Kansas City would go insane.

Dorsey believes in taking the best player available. That means even if he already has a solid starter at a position or even if that position is deep, he will keep adding to it.

I think the best player available option works pretty well if you already have a franchise QB and a pretty good team but the Chiefs have neither of those things. You don’t take a tackle with the first pick in the draft after you pay another tackle top dollar to play the position. Branden Albert wants top dollar and if the Chiefs pay him he won’t be moving inside. As for Joeckel, KC isn’t going to take him and then make him a guard either.

At this point, I think it is pretty safe to ignore most of what John Dorsey says. We won’t, of course, because our job is to bring you the goings-on in Chiefs Nation but I’d take most of what the GM says this time of year with a gigantic grain of salt.

The last week has certainly thrown our QB draft predictions through a loop.

The first shoe to drop was Michael Vick, who signed a new three-year contract “that’s really a one-year deal” according to USA Today worth up to $10 million last Monday. He was already under contract but his restructured deal all but ended speculation that he might be a cap casualty and hit the open market. This leaves just Alex Smith and Matt Flynn as starting-caliber QB’s who could be cut or traded by their current teams.

Then, over the weekend, Dorsey heavily criticized this year’s incoming quarterback draft class, citing “so many inconsistencies” and “too many technical flaws, scheme flaws” among this year’s crop.

Like Paddy, I struggle to understand the purpose of these statements except that maybe he’s hoping to find a trade partner who is enamored with either DT Star Lotulelei or LT Luke Joeckel (the consensus top prospects at the moment) and is willing to hopscotch up to the Chiefs’ spot to guarantee not missing out on one of them. Then again, it’s February and GM’s are usually the last person you can trust leading up to the draft. On the other hand, when you hold the first pick, you don’t really need to juke out anyone.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A few days before his statements came reports that the Chiefs were interested in trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles. It remains unclear if these reports or credible or just idle speculation that Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid would be interested in taking the quarterback he drafted last year and started in the final seven games of the season. One way or the other, with the Chiefs QB options narrowing, it is certainly worth considering whether the team should make a play for Foles and what he would be worth.

In my opinion, Foles is worth at least the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick. Here’s why:

His overall stats for his rookie season were unimpressive: 1-7 record, 60.8% completion percentage for 6.41 yards per completion, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. But, it’s important to see how he progressed. In his last four games last year he was 5 TD’s, 2 INTs for 1,152 yards (a 289.25 per-game average).

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Consider also that he was never supposed to see the field in 2012. He was widely regarded as a guy who would need a lot of development to be ready to play in the NFL.

Furthermore, he was able to put in respectable performances for the Eagles during the home stretch of a season that was a slow motion implosion. Our very own Andy Reid was a lame duck in Week 3. The defense was a sieve, allowing a 27.8 per game (3^rd-worst in the league). Two coaches were fired mid-season. The offensive line was a disaster, allowing a league-high 118 QB hits, and 48 sacks. Only four teams allowed more.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

In some ways, none of this was new to him. He played college ball at Arizona, a middling team in the PAC-12 that played poor defense and only got to one bowl game during his stint there. Their head coach was fired after his junior season.

Nonetheless, Foles was a highly ranked prospect in the 2012 Draft because he possesses the prototypical qualities of a successful quarterback – 6’5” with a big arm and knack for dropping bombs in his receivers’ breadbaskets. In his final season for the Wildcats, he gained 4,334 yards with 28 TD’s and 14 INT’s. He was ranked CBS Sports’ 48^th overall prospect and was expected to go in the mid-to-late 2^nd round. (For a total breakdown of his college work, check out Ladner’s post on the subject from last year).

In fact, the only reason he fell so far was likely because last year’s draft class was so much richer than this year’s and there had already been a feeding frenzy on signal callers. Six quarterbacks were taken ahead of Foles — Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson. All but one of those guys started this year and proved that they could be productive players. After Foles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Lindley were selected and also ended up playing for their respective teams. So, while the Eagles may have gotten him for just a 3^rd, that was a steal. Luckily for us, Pioli grabbed a backup lineman instead.

So what is he worth?

For the record, I should reiterate that I continue to believe that the Chiefs’ best course of action is to franchise LT Brandon Albert, re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe and grab the top quarterback prospect (Geno Smith) with our first overall pick. We can pick up some serviceable veterans and depth players to plug in the rest of our holes with free agency and the lower-rungs of the draft.

But, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a case for grabbing Nick Foles.

With his youth, upside and NFL experience, I think Foles would easily be one of the top three quarterback prospects if he was magically inserted into the 2013 draft. His tape reminds me a lot of Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon and it’s possible that both of those guys will go in the first round. I can’t fathom either of them falling out of the 2^nd.

So, Nick Foles’ former draft position doesn’t matter much when talking about draft compensation this year. In fact, given that he showed the ability to be productive at this level automatically means that he is worth more than the 88^th overall pick, where he was chosen. Therefore, the Eagles are right to expect more in return.

If we’re talking about equitable compensation I think the conversation starts at the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick, which, as Ladner pointed out, is really a late 2^nd-round pick because the Saints and Browns have no 2^nd-rounders this year. We will still probably get a late-3^rd compensatory pick, so the sacrifice isn’t devastating. But, I don’t think the Chiefs should go as high as our #34 selection this year, simply because we need to get value with that pick this year (especially if we are going to “reach” at #1). But, I think it makes perfect sense to offer conditional 2014 picks and maybe even 2015 picks based on Foles’ performance.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

A possible deal could look like this – a 3^rd or 4^th this year and a 6^th next year that could increase to a 4^th, 3^rd, or even 2^nd-round pick in 2014 if he starts for us and takes us to the playoffs. Generally, a pick next year is considered the equivalent of a pick in the current year minus one round. In other words, a 3^rd-rounder next year is worth a 4^th-rounder this year in terms of draft capital.

With this kind of a deal, worst case scenario is that we give up one of our top-100 picks this year and not much else for a starting-quality backup, who is better than any QB we currently have on the roster, who is 24 and who has a ton of upside. He totally outplayed Brandon Weeden last year, who was taken in the 1^st round and is five years older.

If Foles starts for us and we do well with him in 2013, we won’t care that we lost our (late) 2^nd or 3^rd-round pick next year to get him.

Furthermore, Philadelphia may not be so determined to fetch such a high price. While they have said that they would need to be “blown away” by an offer, they have a new regime and are looking for a different type of quarterback. By re-signing Michael Vick and picking up QB Dennis Dixon, who Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly coached in Oregon, they are showing they want a guy who is mobile and can keep up with Kelly’s offense. Slow feet is one of Foles’ greatest weaknesses. He is the black sheep on the roster. So, while they see value in him, that doesn’t mean they’re in love.

While I know it would be groan-inducing for most Chiefs fans, trading for Foles may also be the team’s best way to get one of the most objectively talented prospects in the 2013 Draft plus a possible quarterback of the future. I’ve been on the record as saying that it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to bypass Geno for Lotulelei or Joeckel, but adding Foles to our shopping bag as a 3^rd round pick changes things a bit.

If Dorsey truly is averse to grabbing the top QB in 2013, I think the best consolation prize we are going to find is Nick Foles.

It’s that time of year again, when we all scour every mock draft we can find and endlessly ponder and argue about what the Chiefs should do once April 25^th rolls around.

Everyone has an opinion, most formed forged by a mix of personal preferences, tape study, and a survey of mocks and expert commentary. The problem is that draft science is far from a real science and Mel Kiper Jr. is not god. In fact, the man is our creation – he exists as a result of our obsession and boredom this time of year, and don’t get me wrong, I listen to his podcast, read his articles and scan through all of his mocks. Still, that is far from meaning that the Chiefs should take his advice on Draft day.

The big theme of this round of draft chatter is about how none of the QB’s are worthy of the first overall pick so therefore the Chiefs should steer clear of them with their first selection, choosing instead one of the standout pass-rushers or linemen.

Perhaps it’s my background as a journalist, but I hate groupthink and that includes the conventional wisdom that builds up around this time every year and then gets shattered by the guys actually making the decisions. Let’s be clear, regardless of whatever the self-styled draft scientists say, the player that is worth the Chiefs 1^st pick is the player most likely to make the team better, Kiper’s big board be damned.

To me, it is obvious that this player is whoever the Chiefs deem to be the best quarterback prospect available. I believe that player to be Geno Smith, but what John Dorsey thinks is far more important than my amateur evaluation. In the coming weeks I will go through and detail why the Chiefs shouldn’t pick each individual other prospect that the so-called experts have mocked to them, but for now, I just want to point out that Dorsey has a much better track record than the “experts” when it comes to drafting quality players.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s compare the Packers’ 1^st-round picks since 2005 with what the scientists wanted them to choose:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Pick #: 28

Result: Jury Still Out. Perry started five games this season and racked up a couple of sacks, but couldn’t stay healthy and finished the year on injured reserve with a wrist injury.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Pick #: 32

Result: Jury Still Out. I know it seems like a cop-out, but Sherrod has also seen limited time due to injury. He broke both the tibia and fibula in his leg during the team’s stunning loss to the Chiefs in 2011 and hasn’t been back on the field since. Before then, he started five games giving up no sacks but generating concern in Green Bay about his grasp of the fundamentals.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2010: T Bryan Bulaga

Pick #: 23

Result: High-end starter. Drafted late in the round, Bulaga has played right tacklke for three years “near a Pro Bowl level” and will get a shot at playing left tackle in 2013, according to the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2009: B.J. Raji

Pick #: 9

Result: Franchise player. Raji is a major force at his position and a difference-maker in games.

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

2009: LB Clay Mathews

Pick #: 26

Result: Franchise player. Ditto for Matthews. 42.5 sacks since being drafted. ‘Nuff said.

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2007: DT Justin Harrell

Pick #: 16

Result: Bust due to injury. There is an odd theme to injury being the bane of the Packers’ most promising young players, but it was again the case here. He was cut in 2011 after four disappointing seasons, which the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel summed up thusly: “Harrell never quite had a chance to cash in on his potential as injuries robbed him each season.” Still, he was drafted with a torn bicep suffered in college and was a risky pick on the behalf of the Packers’ front office.

2006: OLB A.J. Hawk

Pick #: 5

Result: High-end starter. ESPN insider describes him as: “an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is an instinctive player who understands angles and how to the leverage the football. He has improved attacking the line of scrimmage being more physical on contact. He is solid as a zone coverage defender but may get exposed in combination man schemes.”

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2005: QB Aaron Rodgers

Pick #: 24

Result: Living legend. A-Rodg probably has to get another Super Bowl victory to punch his ticket to Canton, but he is one of the best three quarterbacks playing this game right now, possibly the very best.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

All and all, not a bad haul for eight first-round picks – one bust, two high-end starters, two franchise players, and one superstar that will define this generation for the team. I don’t need to remind you of what the Chiefs got themselves through these years, but suffice to say it is significantly less stellar.

How did the experts do? Well, this is what Kiper, king of the draftniks, wanted Green Bay to do all of these years:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Ok, this one was sort of obvious. Green Bay needed a pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews and Perry was projected to be the only one available at this spot.

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Ditto. Also shows that these iffy picks were eminently popular.

2010:  G Mike Iupati

Real pick #: 17 by San Francisco

Result: High-end starter. Scouts Inc. has him ranked as the 49ers’ 6^th best player.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2009: CB Malcom Jenkins

Real pick #: 14 by New Orleans

Result: Good starter. The Saints moved him to free safety where he shows good overall skills on that dreadful defense but hasn’t been a difference maker. He has four interceptions in four seasons.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2008: CB Antoine Cason

Real pick #: 27 by San Diego

Result: High-end starter. He gives up big plays, but is overall still a solid d-back. His Madden 13 overall rating was 86, which is pretty dern good.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2007: RB Marshawn Lynch

Real pick #: 12 by Buffalo

Result: High-end starter. Lynch is a borderline franchise player and definitely would have been a good pick for Green Bay if Buffalo hadn’t snatched him four picks earlier. It’s also important to note, however, that Lynch was a trouble-maker who washed out for his first team, which very well could have been the Packers instead of the Bills.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2006: A.J. Hawk

Right again! Rival expert Todd McShay had the Packers taking TE Vernon Davis. Now that would be scary.

2005: S/OLB (?) Thomas Davis

Real pick #: 14 by Carolina

Result: Mediocre player. Davis’ biggest problems lately have been health. He only played nine games in three seasons from 2009 to 2011 and didn’t stand out in 15 starts in 2012, picking up 68 tackles, no sacks and one interception for the Panthers.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

So matched up against the real Green Bay front office, Kiper would have gotten for them four high-end starters plus one good and one mediocre player vs. one superstar, two franchise players, two high-end starters and a bust. That, of course is what conventional wisdom brings – low-risk moves that pay off but make no home runs.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Was 24 the right spot for Aaron Rodgers to be drafted? Well, we know now that it definitely was not. Instead, Alex Smith was taken 1^st overall that year followed by RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cedric Benson, RB Cadillac Williams and CB Pacman Jones. Why? Well, it was a strong running back draft class, just like this is a strong draft for defensive front-seven players.

This is why the “best player available” philosophy is always so misunderstood. Best player available doesn’t mean “next player on Kiper’s Big Board” or “the consensus pick by the draft scientists.” It means finding a player with something special that you can envision helping your team, possibly leading it to the promised land. John Dorsey is much better at that part of the game than any of the talking heads, and has proven it.

Forget about what the crowd says would be “good value” for Chiefs #1 pick. Good value is going to be getting the best quarterback for the future we can. Trading Albert for a young tackle prospect is not good value. Picking up another overhyped D-lineman or undersized pass-rusher isn’t either.

In short, don’t listen to the chatter. Dorsey’s got this.

Jan 22, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey discusses with his scouts and coaches following the Senior Bowl South Squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Chiefs will introduce John Dorsey as their new GM today at 2PM central time.

This is your live thread to discuss the hire and the quotes as the new GM addresses the media.

You can listen/watch the live presser here. 

Be sure to join us in the comments leading up to, during and after the presser.

Are you guys excited to have a GM not named Pioli in KC?

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

According to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports, Packers personnel man John Dorsey is interviewing with the Kansas City Chiefs today for their open GM job.

From La Canfora via Twitter:

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p>Green Bay personnel man John Dorsey interviewing for the Chiefs GM job today. Been considered the likely choice since Andy Reid got there</p>&mdash; Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) <a href=”https://twitter.com/JasonLaCanfora/status/288768765045387264″ data-datetime=”2013-01-08T22:06:53+00:00″>January 8, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src=”//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

There had been some reports that this interview took pace on Monday. La Canfora is a pretty reliable source so if he says it is today I’d believe it. It is also possible that there have been multiple interviews.

Dorsey has been linked to the Chiefs GM job since before Andy Reid was even officially announced as the head coach. There have been other names linked, including former Brown GM Tom Heckert but at this point Dorsey appears to be the favorite.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Now that we know Scott Pioli is out as the GM of the Kansas City Chiefs, we need to turn our attention to his potential replacement.

Many names have been floated in recent days, including former Cleveland Browns GM Tom Heckert but it appears, according to multiple reports, that the leading candidate is John Dorsey, director of football operations for the Green Bay Packers.

Here is a bit on Dorsey from the Packers’ website:

Has served four tenures in Green Bay: first as a player (1984-89); second as a college scout (1991-1997) and director of college scouting (1997-98); third as director of college scouting (2000-2012); and fourth as the current director – football operations (2012-present).

Brought back to the team as director of college scouting on May 8, 2000, by then-Executive Vice President/General Manager Ron Wolf, the 52-year old Dorsey earlier had been a key component in Green Bay’s personnel operations for nine highly successful years. First hired as a college scout in May 1991 with a focus on linebackers, he was retained by Wolf the following year and, ultimately, was promoted to head up the Packers’ college scouting department on Feb. 27, 1997, succeeding John Math, who retired.

Hired as director of player personnel for the Seattle Seahawks on Jan. 26, 1999, as he followed former Packers coach Mike Holmgren to the West Coast, Dorsey resigned that position just over a year later, leaving shortly after the 2000 NFL Draft.

Dorsey has reportedly also interviewed for the GM position with the New York Jets, but most believe he will end up in KC. He has ties to Andy Reid (who still hasn’t officially been announced as head coach) and his wife is partner in a Kansas City-based law firm.

We also got this from Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports.

Again, Green Bay’s John Dorsey well positioned to join KC’s front office. expect other hires beyond him there. need a contract guy, etc.

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) January 4, 2013

And this, from Adam Caplan:

Unless Dorsey doesn’t interview well or Reid has a change of heart, Dorsey is expected to join Chiefs personnel staff in coming days.

— Adam Caplan (@caplannfl) January 4, 2013

It looks like the pieces are coming together. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Chiefs were having a big meeting with their coaches this morning. This was probably to give them some info on their future now that Reid is expected to take over. There have been reports that Reid was assembling a coaching staff well ahead of his interviews, so it is likely we’ll be hearing about his staff relatively quickly.

Somehow I don’t think offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will return.

Stay tuned.