Last time, we explored what to expect from, and what should be expected of, Jeff Allen this year. Moving forward with our examination of our newest offensive linemen, we turn our attention to Donald Stephenson.

Donald Stephenson only played two years in college which some people are taking as a cause for concern. But when he did play, it was at the position on the line with perhaps the least margin for error: blind-side tackle. I say “blind-side tackle” because LT is only the toughest position when the QB’s right-handed (okay: so that’s the case, like, 99.5 percent of the time), but what makes it tough is not which side of the center you’re playing at, but the fact that the QB can’t see what’s coming from your direction and a failed block could result in huge consequences (ask Joe Thiesman).

At his time at Oklahoma, Stephenson logged over 100 knockdowns in each of his two years starting. For comparison, Jeff Allen averaged somewhere in the mid-80s per year over a four year span in college. Additionally, at the NFL level, 100 knockdowns is generally the benchmark for OLs to hit if they wish to be in serious contention for a Pro Bowl berth.

A knockdown is almost as simple as it sounds like… almost. A knockdown is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground, and there are two types of knockdown. The first type, which doesn’t really have a special name, is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground and move on to take on a still-standing defender. The second type is called a “pancake” and consists of, as you’re knocking a player down, following him to the ground, landing on top of him, and staying put (effectively removing any chance that defender had of making a stop for the rest of that play, since, if you can’t get up, you likely can’t tackle/sack anybody, you can’t defend/intercept any passes and you can’t force/recover any fumbles).

Regular knockdowns are preferable for running plays when the OL is serving as a lead blocker. In this case, when a defender is knocked down, by the time he gets back up the play is long past him. Pancakes are best reserved as the type of knockdown to use in a pass play. As I previously stated, if you can’t get up, you can’t get sacks/interceptions/etc. Knockdowns are one of few stats kept track of for OLs throughout their football careers (you’ll also see stats for sacks allowed, QB hurries allowed and TD-resulting blocks). When you hear “knockdown” just remember that this number includes pancakes. Like all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares, all pancakes are knockdowns but not all knockdowns are pancakes.

Essentially, Stephenson did very well in neutralizing players in large part due to this ability. To boot, the Oklahoma line as a whole only gave up 11 sacks last season… as a whole!

So, if Stephenson played so well, why did he only start for two years in college? When Stephenson arrived in Oklahoma he found himself behind junior OT Trent Williams on the depth chart. The same Trent Williams that the Redskins chose as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. When Williams arrived in Oklahoma in 2006 he found himself in a similar quandary sitting behind OT Branndon Braxton. Fortunately (for Williams) Braxton went down to injury partway into the 2006 season and Williams was afforded the opportunity to showcase his abilities as a freshman. The next season the coaches split snaps between Williams and Braxton. Stephenson wasn’t quite so fortunate to receive a similar opportunity; following Braxton’s departure, Williams did not miss college playing time with the exception of the last regular season game of his senior year.

We should probably give Stephenson a little more attention than we have been, don’t you think?

Stephenson is set to be a “swing” tackle this year. If Albert or Winston need a breather, Stephenson will be our guy. And believe it or not, swing tackle is one of the tougher jobs on the offensive line. Don’t believe me? You’ve seen a tackle come out of his stance before; one of the first things he does is flip his hips to the outside. Get out of your chair and try it. To spare you some embarrassment (or at least an explanation to your co-workers), I won’t ask you to get down in a three-point stance; you can start off in a position that still has a good bend in the knees and waist. Now, open your hips out to the right (like a RT) bringing your arms up like you’re blocking. Now, try it opening your hips out to the left. One of those felt more natural and fluid than the other, didn’t it?* This plays a large part of why great RTs can make lousy LTs, and vice versa; you’re trying to get your body to do something that just doesn’t feel right.

* It did.

In order to excel in the swing tackle role (truly excel), Stephenson will have to rep this over and over and over again until opening his hips one way feels just as natural and fluid as opening his hips the other way to realize similar success at both positions (LT and RT). Thankfully, his success in college at LT seems to indicate that he’s well versed in opening his hips to the left, so Cassel won’t have to worry much about his blindside when Albert needs a break. How well Stephenson will do when Winston needs a break is the bigger question mark right now.

I am a huge proponent of the “lockup Albert to a long-term deal” crowd, and I think Winston is a Godsend, but Stephenson will be a significant contributor. As Paddy recently pointed out, Albert is ranked highly in pass protection, and Winston in run blocking. If Stephenson can spell our players for a stretch of plays they’re less successful at (Albert on runs and Winston on passes), it’ll keep our starters fresh and read to dominate even more on the plays they’re best at. That would be a significant contribution.

So is Stephenson a starter this year? No. Will he be a starter for the Chiefs in the long-term? Not if Pioli does his job and extends Albert’s contract. But he will play an important part in our line’s success this year, and that is worth a third-round pick.

Well played, Pioli, well played…

After the selection of Dontari Poe with the 11th overall pick, Scott Pioli surprised Chiefs Nation further by taking not one, but two more linemen with the next picks, this time on the offensive side of the ball.

It’s hard to surmise which pick was more surprising. Illinois OT Jeff Allen didn’t get much media coverage before the draft, but do you know who did? C Peter Konz and OT Mike Adams, both of whom were still available. “C’MON, PIOLI! Who is this guy?” cried Chiefs Nation. And the internet exploded killing hundreds and severely injuring thousands as Chiefs fans scoured the message boards everywhere lamenting the passing of Konz and Adams, and trying to find out just who Jeff Allen is (true story).

But then Pioli goes and drafts Donald Stephenson in Round 3. Okay; he’s a home boy and was invited to the Chiefs’ local pro day, at least we know who he is. But didn’t most pundits predict him to go in the 5th Round, some as early as round 4 to be fair, but more than that as late as Round 6?!?

With the exception of the pass rushing variety and the automatic-upgrade-to-any-team variety, linemen are not sexy draft picks. They’re just not. Linemen are like most businesses’ support staffs: if they do their job well, they run the risk of going unnoticed and their talents taken for granted, so only when they falter are they guaranteed to get attention. But also like support staffs, their success is vital in keeping things running like a well-oiled machine.

As we learned shortly after the pick, Jeff Allen played throughout his entire college career, starting at RT and making the move to LT shortly thereafter, and earning awards, honors and mentions all along his way. Allen is projected to ultimately supplant Ryan Lilja at LG, a move not uncommon when college players turn pro (just this year the League even saw a veteran make the move when PIT moved Willie Colon, formerly a T, to G for the upcoming season). A move like this tends to be less mentally taxing on a player than you might think. Whereas D-Linemen can succeed well knowing their own individual assignment and trusting their teammates to know theirs, O-Linemen succeed best when they know not just their individual blocking assignment, but also the assignments of the guys beside them… Oh! Also their mirror counterparts at the other end of the line.

Whether you’ve only played football in video games or played physically at some level in your life, you should probably know that when a play is added to the offensive playbook it’s actually added twice: one the way the play was originally drawn up, and the other, the mirror image of that play. Usually something minute in the play call tells the players which way the play’s going. [Ex: Say a run play’s called the “25 Pitch”. The play calling system we’re using might be that the “5” in “25” means the pitch is going to the left. If the play’s called as “26 Pitch”, the “6” would mean it’s going to the right.] When looking at the play in its original and in its reverse, the change in WR routes and/or RB assignments is usually pretty noticeable between the two versions. What might be overlooked, or not even considered without thinking, is that blocking assignments change between the two as well. It’s beneficial to an OL to not just know what they’re doing individually on one version of the play, but also what their mirror counterparts are doing on the other side, because they’ll be expected to do the same when the play’s called in the opposite direction. Bear in mind, this is also while knowing what blocking assignments the man next to you in line will be required to make. Ultimately, the best OLs wind up knowing what everyone’s assignments on the line are, because it’s kind of important.

The real consideration when an OL changes position is whether or not they have the physical tools to make the transition.

Cs can be a little bit smaller than their fellow linemen, as their blocking assignments will often involve assisting a G on a block, picking up a smaller blitzer (read: LB or S) or (in runs up the gut) blocking a LB downfield (also called “on the next level”). Plus, the half a moment it takes to snap the ball is a half a moment during which your teammates have already engaged in their blocks (so making a C’s assignment to be to assist a G on a block or pick up a blitzer makes sense, as these things can wait a half moment).

Gs, working between the C and a T, can have a little less side-to-side foot quickness than, say, Ts, but should count forward moving speed as one of their greatest assets as they’ll be required to, often enough, break from the line on a pull or a trap.

Ts, not necessarily having someone to their outer side (if no TE is lined up), benefit most from side-to-side foot quickness as there’s a whole open field on the outer side of them that they absolutely must be able to defend. I hear that the failure to do this is called “Barry the Bullfighter Syndrome” around these parts.

Last week, I introduced Arrowhead Addict readers to Joe Landers’ approach to forecasting NFL success, or rather I should say the likelihood thereof, of a NFL draft prospect based on that prospect’s NFL Combine performance. I then used his methodology, first straight up, and then later factoring in a weight adjustment of my own, to assess the likelihood that the Chiefs first round draft pick, Dontari Poe, would be a successful player in the NFL.

To recap, Landers compiled physical attribute scores from 2005 to 2008 and developed peer averages for each attribute at each position. If a prospect performed above average at his position on a Combine metric, he scored an EPA (Exceeded Peer Average) which Landers uses an indicator of future NFL success. Landers’ primary definition of success was whether the prospect made first team in the 2008 season.

There was at least one reasoned criticism about what I did last week in analyzing Dontari Poe. In order to get more of what I felt would be an apples to apples comparison, I added my own tweak to Poe’s assessment by focusing only on Combine scores for DTs who weighed 330 lbs or more. For the record, Poe himself weighed in at 346 lbs and I felt, due to the laws of physics, it was important to make this distinction and try to draw a line somewhere because the prototypical, ideal nose tackle is generally in the 330 plus weight range. The criticism to my approach was that rather than focusing on weight, I should “redo” my analysis by compiling and correlating scores of true Nose Tackles rather than just DT “fatties” without regard to whether they played NT or 43DT. Two non-fatty NT examples were provided – Jay Ratliff (292 lbs) and Barry Cofield (304 lbs).

I’ll address this criticism first generally and then specifically.

To ignore weight as a factor is to ignore physics as a factor.  Because WRs, DBs, and to a lesser extent RBs and LBs, are typically at the lighter end of the NFL weight scale, they tend to be the fastest players on the field. At the other end of the weight scale are OL and DL “uglies” who tend to be the slowest of all players. The reason for this is simple physics. What’s more, a player who lacks speed, particularly linemen, can more than compensate for this with the right combination of power and quickness (noting that quickness is not the same as speed).

At a more specific level, not all NTs are created equal.  Jay Ratliff, for example, is not really used to anchor the middle, eat blockers, and/or collapse the pocket. Rather, he tries to use his combination of size and speed to slide through a gap and he typically comes in on passing downs for that purpose rather than play as a 3 down NT. Similarly, you will rarely see Barry Cofield, when he’s healthy, take on multiple blockers, and when he does, he routinely gets crushed.  In other words, neither of these guys are the type of NT that a guy like Romeo Crennel would want to feature in his 3-4 scheme. Dontari Poe, for his part, looks to possess an ideal combination of size and athleticism to ultimately be a 3 down NT.

Enough rehashing.  Ready for some more Landers-type assessment of our other draft picks?

Jeff Allen, OG*

Landers’ OG peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages:

Short Shuttle: 4.72 sec; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.84 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 28.45”; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 101”; 47% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.31 sec; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 25.34; 41% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

*  I say OG, rather than OT, because guard is the position that Allen is expected to play for the Chiefs. Besides, scoring EPAs at the OT position is more challenging than those at the OG position.

In the case of OGs, as was also the case with DTs, the most important test to score an EPA on is the 3 cone drill, wherein 2/3rds of 2008 1^st teamers did so within the 2005-2008 study period. Lander’s goes on to conclude the greatest correlation indicator for OG success is for a prospect to score an EPA on the 3 cone and then at least 3 EPAs beyond that.

Jeff Allen’s (6’4”, 307 lbs) Combine Numbers:

Short Shuttle: 4.9 sec

Three Cone: 8.01 sec

Vertical Jump: 27.5”

Broad Jump: 102”; EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.28 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 26; EPA

As you can see, while Allen scored 3 EPAs, he nevertheless undershot on the leading indicator, the 3 Cone drill. What I take away from this is that, statistically speaking, the likelihood of Allen becoming a starting OG is not as great as would the case had he scored at least .17 seconds better on the 3 cone. Whether Jeff Allen proves himself to be a statistical exception, and there are always are some, remains to be seen.

Next week, the Chiefs 3^rd round pick, OT Donald Stephenson.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you take away from this, Addicts? Does Joe Landers’ forecasting model raise any new questions for you about Allen’s future as a Chief? How soon, if at all, do you expect to see Jeff Allen replacing Ryan Lilja as a starter?

Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

Chiefs second round draft pick Jeff Allen has made the DIRECTV All-Value Team as chosen by NFL Draft guru Michael Lombardi.

According to most analysts, Allen was one of KC’s best picks of the entire draft. NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said the night of the draft that he felt Allen could be a day-one starter for the Chiefs at guard.

Allen figures to enter camp pushing Ryan Lilja for a starting spot. If I had to guess I would think Lilja will win the job. He is a veteran and the Chiefs have shown a history of letting their new lineman site for a year. Jon Asamoah sat behind Brian Waters and last season, center Rodney Hudson waited behind Casey Wiegmann.

Here is the rest of the DIRECTV All-Value Team:

•                      Jeff Allen – OT/OG, Kansas City (44th)

•                      Mike Adams – OT, Pittsburgh (56th)

•                      Demario Davis – LB, New York Jets (77th)

•                      Akiem Hicks – DE, New Orleans (89th)

•                      Omar Bolden – CB, Denver (101st)

•                      Frank Alexander – DE Carolina (103rd)

•                      Tank Carder – LB, Buffalo (147th)

•                      Jack Crawford – DE, Oakland (158th)

•                      Vick Ballard – RB, Indianapolis (170th)

•                      Billy Winn – DT, Cleveland (205th)

•                      Caleb McSurdy – LB, Dallas (222nd)

•                      Cam Johnson – DE, San Francisco (237th)

Allen and the rest of the All-Value team got a free year of DIRECTV service as well as a year of NFL Sunday Ticket, which the company is now offering for just $199.

Greetings, Internet friends. It’s been a while since we chatted here. I’ve been busy lately with regular life stuff I won’t bore you with, but our newest draft class has never been far from my mind. And since I’ve gotten a couple emails from readers (friends and relatives) wanting to know my thoughts on the draft, I thought I’d put pen to paper, as it were*.

*Note: I don’t write on Mondays when Paddy and I do AA Radio Sunday. It’s an either/or. Trust me, you people don’t want to be seeing me more than once a week. 

I’m still a Poe boy; nothing has changed there. But from what I can tell, my reasons for being a Poe Boy differ from some of yours.

“He’s a Chief, let’s get behind him!” is a nice sentiment, but shouldn’t factor into objective analysis. ”Gotta trust Romeo” is something I’ve said, about this pick even, but the truth is that although our defense is on the rise, Crennel hasn’t delivered a top-10 unit yet. And in any case, I’m not in the habit of bestowing unconditional trust on men who run sports teams. You know, because I’m from Kansas City?

There are two reasons I really like this pick. The first is that it’s further proof we don’t have Scott Pioli pegged. I like that. My fear with him was always that he was too safe, or risk-averse, or, for lack of a better word, lame. Homerun swings are definitely not lame. Chicks dig the long ball, after all.

But really, I just find this to be a fascinating experiment. I have no idea how it will end. Bust? Maybe. There are concerns. Valid ones. For one thing, I always raise an eyebrow at the concept of “coaching up.” Not that coaches are unimportant, far from it. It’s just that the people already in the industry have a vested interest in the “coaching up” concept, because it assigns credit for success to them, not the players. Because of the high turnover rate among coaches and GMs in professional sports, these guys have to constantly defend their own work. ”We’re gonna coach ‘im up.” Sure. Herm Edwards used to say it, for Christ’s sake.

Still, what happens when you give a defensive coach the best athlete in the draft to fill his last remaining position of need? We’re about to find out. Poe is also a really interesting data point in the widely held belief that the Combine is overrated. Fail or succeed, and we learn a lesson.

I can understand not wanting another D-tackle. Lord knows the Chiefs have whiffed there a time or two. But Poe really isn’t that similar to Ryan Sims, or Tyson Jackson. I like to think of him as more of an Eric Downing 2.0 type.

Kidding. I don’t know what’s going to happen here, but I have this feeling Poe will make Tin Man and Dorsey look like they’re moving through water. I also think he’ll have more sacks than either, even as a rookie. The Chiefs are already referring to him as a three-down lineman. Can you imagine such a thing? A lineman picked high in the first round who doesn’t have to come out on the most important downs? It’s like we just drafted a mythical creature.

Poe excites me. I can’t say the same about the rest of the class. Cyrus Gray and DeQuan Menzie both get an early thumbs up, but it’s tough to expect too much from late-round picks before we’ve even seen them.

Jeff Allen seems like a decent pick, but I can’t help but wonder if Pioli is overvaluing Allen’s supposed versatility. The Chiefs think he can play guard, too. Couldn’t basically any tackle play guard? I mean, failed tackles move to guard all the time. Remember John Welbourn?

Crennel says they just want to play the best five linemen. I applaud that mentality. But if you draft specifically for versatility, you’re not really being flexible, are you? It seems to me most good linemen would be capable of playing a few positions well. I’d prefer to see them pick the best players, and then find a spot for them. Maybe that’s what they’re doing with Allen. But the immediate talk of versatility makes me wonder.

In the end, Allen is a solid lineman, and you can never have too many of those. We do need at least one guy who can step in and do a decent job in case of injury. This was probably a solid pick, but it didn’t wow me.

Donald Stephenson appears likely to follow in the footsteps of Donald Washington. And what I mean by that is I think they’re going to convert him to safety. I know he’s 300 pounds, but I’ve got a feeling.

Even if drafting a potential replacement for Branden Albert is sound planning, I don’t particularly like what it says. I fear Albert may be the next good player to hit the old dusty trail. But perhaps a more likely scenario is that Stephenson simply never becomes a starter.

Devon Wylie makes me wonder how many receivers we’ll carry this season. I’m going to assume D-Bowe is playing for us this year. Baldwin and Breaston are locks. Is McCluster a receiver? Does Terry Copper somehow make this team again? Are Wylie and Junior “Steinbeck” Hemingway in competition for a roster spot? Questions. Questions that need answering. I say we bring in Quinten Lawrence to mentor the whole lot of ‘em. Sure he’s a defensive back for the Dolphins now, but he’s also a former member of Todd Haley’s Core (THC). Methinks a future first-round pick could pry him away and get him back where he belongs.

Last year’s draft class is still my favorite, but to me Poe is unquestionably Pioli’s boldest first-round pick. Fortune favors the bold.  I think it was Jimmy Raye who first said that?

Poe Boys Unite