The Kansas City Chiefs will throw the ball in 2013. If you don’t believe me, just ask the new head coach, Andy Reid. He’s a passing coach. He grooms quarterbacks and makes receivers into superstars. It’s what he does. Reid and new Chiefs GM, John Dorsey, have done everything they can on the offensive side of the ball to improve the Chiefs’ dismal passing attack during the 2012 season. They have secured the services of a starting caliber quarterback who has not only been to the playoffs, but has won in January. They’ve re-signed the Chiefs’ best receiver and paid him top dollar. Once the free agency period hit, Reid and Dorsey didn’t break the bank, but they had a plan and that included finding a fast receiver who can “take the top off the defense.” They believe they found that in newly signed wide receiver, Donnie Avery. The Chiefs will absolutely throw the ball in 2013. The question is, how well will they do it and will Reid’s offense work with the players on the Chiefs’ roster?

For the Chiefs to be successful, all the components have to fit together. Alex Smith must maintain the accuracy that everyone is talking about. Bowe has to catch the balls that are thrown his way and then do something with the pigskin to move it up field. This mysterious “best five” offensive line has to give Smith the time to get the ball to the right receiver. Finally, Jamaal Charles has to do what he does and break a 40 or 50 yard run every now and then to keep the opposing defenses honest. All that said, do the Chiefs really have the pieces it will take to pass the ball successfully this season? Let’s take a look at some of the major players in Reid’s new “passing offense.”

I would hardly call Dwayne Bowe a question mark. The man has shown in his six seasons with the Chiefs he is a versatile receiver. He has had passes thrown to him from seven different quarterbacks and still has managed to secure the Chiefs’ franchise record for touchdown receptions in a single season. That’s a pretty lofty feat for a team that used to count tight end Tony Gonzales as one of their players. The only question mark that plants itself squarely on Dwayne Bowe’s back is what will he do now that he has the big contract he’s been searching for. He’s getting paid top five receiver money. Will he show up and be a top five receiver?

Dexter McCluster was drafted to the Chiefs’ roster to be a playmaker. I don’t think Todd Haley and Scott Pioli truly knew what they were getting when they called the diminutive athlete’s number with the 36^th overall pick in the 2010 draft. While McCluster’s numbers haven’t been as stellar as many would think fitting for a high second round pick (984 receiving yards in 42 games with three touchdowns) many would attribute that to McCluster not being used properly. Reid seems to have a plan for #22 and spoke very highly of him in a recent interview.

I kind of like him. He’s not the biggest guy in the world, but he’s got a heart of a lion. He’s got that MO, tremendous quickness and can catch. He’s pretty good at running the football, so there is a place for him. You line him up everywhere. You can move him around and kind of do some unique things with him.

Andy Reid’s words bode well for DMC’s future with the Chiefs organization. I don’t see him being a late off-season cut or casualty of the new administration in Kansas City.

Newly acquired free agent Donnie Avery is a bit of a wildcard. Many Chiefs fans (me included) were scratching their heads after this signing was announced. I found myself searching up YouTube to find any tape I could on Reid and Dorsey’s new toy. I didn’t have to search any further than the Indianapolis Colts played vs. Detroit Lions game last December. Let me recap it for you. The Colts needed a touchdown to beat the Lions and as time expired, rookie quarterback Andrew Luck found Donnie Avery on a slant route. Avery pulled the ball in and hit the accelerator. With his speed, there was no way he would allow the Lions’ secondary to catch him. Game over. The Chiefs need that “clutch” player on their team. I’m hoping they found it. Time will tell, I suppose.

Perhaps the biggest question mark in the passing offense is third year receiver, Jon Baldwin. Last year during pre-season, as Dwayne Bowe was skipping training camp due to not having a contract in place, Baldwin got most of the reps with the first team. Blogs and tweets were running rampant with news of the amazing, one-handed, circus catches that Baldwin was making in camp. Everyone forgave the former first round pick for his disappointing rookie season. Fans blamed the lockout and the lack of an offseason for his less than stellar first year. Last year was going to be Baldwin’s year…or not. He fell flat and didn’t live up to even the most conservative of expectations. Baldwin cannot afford to have another year like the last two.

Andy Reid is ready to win now. In his offense, that means catching passes and scoring touchdowns. The entire mindset of the Chiefs team is about to change. Reid and Dorsey have proven in the short time they’ve been a part of this organization they’re willing to make tough decisions and do what it takes. To think Reid will change his entire offense because Kansas City has traditionally been a “run first” team is silly. I love Jamaal Charles and I love watching him hit the edge or find a seam and burn an opposing defense for a 50 or 60 yard touchdown run. But, there is nothing better than holding your breath when the game is on the line and a pass is in the air, waiting to see the spectacular catch and ultimate touchdown on the other end. The Chiefs will throw the ball this season…and I can’t wait.

That’s how I see it Addicts. What say you?

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to find a way to keep WR Dwayne Bowe.

Schefter made the comments today on Sports Center.

“The Chiefs are gonna figure out a way to keep him.

There isn’t much mystery to how the Chiefs can keep Bowe. They have one of two options. They can either sign him to a long-term deal or they can place the franchise tag on him for the second season in a row.

The Chiefs will have to decide on Bowe’s future soon. The team got the ability to use the franchise tag starting yesterday and they have two weeks in which to use it.

That means KC is likely heavily involved in negotiations with Bowe’s agent as we speak.

The other elephant in the room here is LT Branden Albert. Albert will also be a free agent if he is not re-signed or tagged. We’ve already heard that the Chiefs want to keep both Bowe and Albert. This latest report from Schefter kind of makes it sound like Bowe is ahead of Albert on the list.

The ideal situation would be for the team to find a way to sign both players to long-term deals. If that can’t be accomplished, the next most favorable option would be to ink Bowe and tag Albert.

It appears that Bowe is coming back, one way or another. But how Bowe comes back could determine whether or not Branden Albert comes back with him.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

It appears as though the Kansas City Chiefs are showing a little love to their fans this Valentine’s Day by allowing some interesting information to leak out, spicing up an otherwise dull February.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Kansas City Chiefs are actively trying to re-sign free agent-to-be, WR Dwayne Bowe.

Bowe played under the franchise tag last season and while the team has the ability to tag him once again this year, Rapoport says the Chiefs are in serious talks to bring Bowe back long-term.

Ian Rapoport reported Thursday night on NFL Network’s “NFL Total Access” that the Kansas City Chiefs are actively pursuing a new contract with Bowe, according to sources close to the situation. Bowe’s representatives have met with the Chiefs, and Rapoport expects conversations to continue in the coming weeks.

This is a bit of a surprise, but perhaps it shouldn’t be. This is a brand new Chiefs regime that clearly could view Bowe in a different light than former general manager Scott Pioli, who didn’t appear willing to give Bowe the long-term deal that he wanted. Rapoport reports that Andy Reid was very high on Bowe coming out of LSU.

This is spectacular news for Chiefs fans. Bowe is clearly the best receiver on the Chiefs’ roster and he has shown the ability to play well despite the very mediocre parade of QBs that he has the pleasure of playing with.

The Chiefs have plenty of cap space and it is important that they keep as many productive players as possible. Nothing is set in stone yet, but the fact that reports are emerging that the Chiefs do want Bowe to return is an excellent sign.

Are you guys excited that the new regime wants to keep Dwayne Bowe?

Last Friday, a shot rang out through Chiefs nation – one that meant hope, credibility and a lot of change.

By firing GM Scott Pioli and bringing in head coach Andy Reid, Clark Hunt has set the franchise on an entirely new path.

Firstly, he has done away with the team’s traditional hierarchical structure that seats a powerful general manager above the coaching staff. Make no mistake, going forward, for better or worse, Reid is going to be calling the shots during the offseason, the draft, et cetera.

Four years ago, the Chiefs hired a highly reputed front office wiz from the New England Patriots. Although everyone knows that Bill Belichick is the mastermind behind New England’s success, this guy was a vital cog in his machine and it was believed that the numbers guy could be brought in to reproduce it. That failed, and Hunt learned his lesson. This time around, by hiring Andy Reid, he didn’t get Pioli, he got Belichick.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Having secured a lucrative contract that gives him wide-sweeping authority, make no mistake, Reid is going to make a lot of changes. He comes with a distinct philosophy, working style and mold for a successful team.

Reid is definitely going to make his imprint on this team during this offseason, which means several players are going to get their walking papers while others are going to see their role increase. We still don’t know exactly who Reid will take on with his staff or whether or not he will be keeping the Chiefs’ 3-4 defense, but judging by the way he built the Eagles, I think we can say which players should be happy and which should be nervous.

Offense

Extremely Happy:

WR’s Steve Breaston, Dexter McCluster and Devon Wylie

Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Reid loves small receivers that are great route-runners. McCluster has come on has an effective slot guy and I have a feeling that Reid will find something to do with Breaston who was criminally underused this season. Meanwhile, Wylie showed up late as another developing tool in the Chiefs passing game.

Happy:

RB Jamaal Charles, LT Brandon Albert

It’s been widely said that Reid doesn’t like to run the ball, but that’s not really true. The Eagles were 19^th in rushing attempts per game this year, 12^th last year and 15^th in 2010. In other words, they’re pretty much in the middle of the pack. Charles will still be getting fewer touches on runs out of the backfield (largely because the Chiefs have been one of the most run-happy teams in the league), but he will make up for that with more screens and quick passes thrown his way per game. Charles is a good route runner and could easily become a faster version of Brian Westbrook.

Reid also highly values the offensive line and doesn’t mind spending big to keep it shored up. This is good news for Albert, whose contract is up.

Extremely Worried:

RB Peyton Hillis and WR’s Jonathan Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Hillis is gone. His fantastic game against the Colts notwithstanding, Hillis was a disappointment, only rushing for 309 yards this season for a 3.6-yard average. Like Hillis, Baldwin and Bowe also don’t really fit Reid’s scheme. Bowe is a great outside, move-the-chains threat, but Reid doesn’t typically utilize such receivers. He prefers getting the ball into the hands of smaller, more dynamic players in the middle that have the chance to make big plays. Baldwin has done next to nothing in the league and doesn’t fit this new mold. Bowe will probably be allowed to walk this offseason in favor of a free agent like Mike Wallace. Baldwin will probably get his last chance to prove his worth in the 2013 preseason.

Defense

Extremely Happy:

S Eric Berry

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Reid made great use of safety Brian Dawkins early in his time in Philadelphia as a jack-of-all-trades blitzer, run stuffer and cover guy. Berry has the physical tools to do the same, and I can’t wait to see the creative ways Reid decides to use him.

Happy:

OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston

Although nothing is certain at this point, it is likely that Reid will want to move back to a 4-3 defense and use both Hali and Houston as edge rushers on the line. Hali is originally a defensive end and will likely be happy to return. Although Houston has done admirably in picking up coverage skills, I personally think it is a waste to make him drop back on passing downs when he truly excels at getting after the quarterback. In a Reid defense, he likely to be able focus on doing just that.

Worried:

The rest of the front seven

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Especially if the team abandons the 3-4, DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are likely toast. Both are overpaid and underwhelming and I don’t see Reid wanting to keep reinvesting in those projects. Poe will likely stay a bit longer because he is still developing and would likely be effective in a 4-3 as well.

Unfortunately for the guys behind them, Reid has never heavily prized the linebacker position. In his years in Philly, he always invested high picks and free agent signings in defensive linemen and DBs while allowing the linebacking corps to be filled by a revolving door of journeymen.

Although we know Derrick Johnson can excel in the role of a 4-3 middle linebacker, it is still unclear whether Reid will want to pay him big money to continue to do so when his contract is up.

This list will change as we find out more about what Reid plans to do with this team, and I’ll try to keep you all updated as we all find out more.

Dwayne Bowe’s season could be over.

And so could his time in Kansas City.

It looks as though what we’ve feared all day is coming to fruition. According to Pro Football Talk, Bowe’s rib injury will send him to injured reserve and end his season.

Per league source, Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe has multiple broken ribs and will be placed on IR.

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 11, 2012

The report is being corroborated by other sources as well.

The official announcement from the Chiefs will likely come tomorrow. Tuesday is usually the day teams will announce roster moves. Expect the Chiefs to send Bowe to IR and to promote one of their practice squad players to the active roster. There will also likely be a signing.

This also could spell the end of Bowe’s time in KC. He has no contract for next season. Unless Scott Pioli or whoever the Chiefs GM is should Pioli be fired, signs Bowe to a new deal before free agency (or uses the franchise tag on him), Bowe will likely be playing elsewhere in 2013.

The Kansas City Chiefs have already ruled out WR Dwayne Bowe for this Sunday’s game against the Oakland Raiders.

The news comes via Kansas City Star reporter Adam Teicher.

Bowe suffered a rib injury yesterday after taking a knee to the back/side while blocking for a running play.

Without Bowe in the lineup, the Chiefs may consider activating veteran WR Steve Breaston this week. Breaston has been a huge disappointment this season, catching only seven balls in nine games of action. Still, the rest of the KC receivers are extremely inexperience and QB Brady Quinn could use a veteran when he goes up against Oakland’s vulnerable pass defense.

Bowe’s injury could be serious and the team said yesterday that they were worried he had some broken ribs. If that is the case, Bowe’s season, and his time in Kansas City, could be over.

Oct 9, 2011; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (82) celebrates his touchdown catch in the end zone against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Kansas City defeated Indianapolis 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

I’ll be honest with you, my fellow Chiefs fans: I was racking my brain trying to come up with a third positive post to do this evening. I decided that after days of complaining about what is wrong with this team I wanted to keep it positive today. I started with a post about the talent still on this roster, followed with a post about how good the videos put out by 65 TPT Productions are, and now I can finish the day off with some good news regarding Dwayne Bowe.

Adam Teicher of the Kansas City Star has a must-read article up this evening for anyone who is concerned about the Chiefs resigning their top receiver. Last month Yahoo’s Jason Cole was asked by a Miami radio station if he thought the Dolphins might try to trade for Bowe before the trade deadline. He said (I’m paraphrasing) that it was possible. This was misreported by some that Cole was saying that the Dolphins and the Chiefs were trying to negotiate a deal. He later took to Twitter to clarify that he didn’t know anything about them working on a deal, just that it would make sense if they were. He then Tweeted this:

I can report this: Bowe wants out of KC very badly. Not exactly a revelation, but true.

I’ll be completely honest; I’ve been operating under the assumption that Bowe is as good as gone after this season. Here’s my reasoning. The Chiefs couldn’t come to a long term deal this last offseason and its hard to imagine that either side is going to move significantly after this season is over. Given Bowe’s tendency for drops, showboating, and occasional knuckleheadedness it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs tagging him a second time and paying him well over $10 million for a single season (although they will need to spend up to the spending floor next year, so that might not be an issue). I also believe that if Bowe hits free agency that someone will offer him a silly amount of money that KC won’t match (see: Carr, Brandon). Finally, my thinking has been that Bowe would want no part of staying in KC. Why should he take less money to stay with a run first team with no quarterback that’s in a small market and doesn’t like his attention seeking “Bowe Show” ways? I’ve always seen him taking big money in a big market if he had the chance. The fact that the Chiefs are also TERRIBLE this season doesn’t help matters either.

That was a very long way of saying that I didn’t think Bowe would resign with KC.

That all having been said, Teicher’s article today caught me by surprise. Even when I saw the headline I was expecting the typical “I love KC, I’d like to work something out, we’ll see what happens after the season” line that most soon to be free agents spout out (probably at their agent’s urging). Everyone should go to the Star’s website and read it for yourself. Bowe doesn’t just claim he wants to stay, he emphatically denies the reports that he wants to leave. Check out some of these quotes.

“I never said I didn’t want to be here. I never said that. This is where it started for me. This is where people know me from. That’s crazy to me.”

“When I heard that, I was like, ‘Where did that come from?’ I never said I wanted out. Please clear that up for me.”

“I play the game to win. That’s what I do week in and week out. I feel we can do that here, of course. Things happen, and it won’t be easy, but I try to show (that spirit) and it will become contagious. You’ll see it. It’s coming.”

That’s not your garden variety PC/PR prewritten by an agent quote. What’s more, Bowe is usually a guy with no filter. He just says what he’s feeling or thinks and it has gotten him in trouble before. That’s why this report surprised me. I have a hard time believing that Bowe suddenly became a PR wizard and dropped these denials to win over public opinion. I believe the guy, and this is coming from someone that woke up this morning thinking that there was a 0% chance that Bowe would stay in KC.

Now, this doesn’t mean that Bowe and the Chiefs will work something out. Bowe may still want a big, fat, Vincent Jackson-esqe, multi-year deal that the Chiefs just may not think he is worth. I still can’t see Bowe giving KC a big hometown discount if his agent thinks he can hit the lottery on the open market. However, I’m encouraged that Bowe seems to want to stay assuming the Chiefs will pay him. That at least ups the odds of him returning some.

For now, that’s about the best you can ask for.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The NFL Trade Deadline has passed and as expected, WR Dwayne Bowe is still a Chiefs.

But that doesn’t mean no deals went down.

The New England Patriots have traded for Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cb Aqib Talib.

Talib has a lot of troubles off the field and is currently serving a four-game suspension for breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

There is no word on what the Pats gave up for Talib but it was likely a draft pick.

For the Chiefs, the deadline was quiet. With the future of GM Scott Pioli and head coach Romeo Crennel in serious doubt due to the extremely disappointing 2012 season, it would have been foolish for chiefs owner Clark Hunt to allow Pioli to make any major moves.

For now, at least, Dwayne Bowe remains a Chiefs.

The Kansas City Chiefs continued to break our hearts this past Sunday, getting trounced by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rumors have surfaced about Pioli’s (and even Crennel’s) future with the team. Though this article was pre-planned by a couple weeks, it’s actually as good a time as any to look ahead to the 2013 offseason to see how the Chiefs’ cards fall as it concerns the roster and salary cap.

To kickoff, let’s start out by listing which players’ contracts are expiring at the end of this season.

A few names that I’m sure have popped out are Albert, Bowe & Dorsey, as they’ve been the most talked-about players whose contracts will be expiring (such talk dating back to at least April), with a lot of that talk being related to how high of a contract these players may demand. Two other names that pop out to me (though whose contracts should be exponentially cheaper) are Colquitt and Gafford. Not only should a punter’s and long-snapper’s value to a team not be underestimated, but they’re among the only players who have been consistently performing up to standard all season.

A lot of how we view what player personnel changes should be made relies on a general idea of how much a player would likely demand and how much money is likely available for the team to use on these players. It’s the latter portion of this speculation that I (and my Spotrac-obsessed hind parts) primarily hope to shed light on this week.

At last announcement, the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million remaining in cap availability; though I’ve indicated in past that some of this money many be promised to players in the form of NLTBE incentives (and thereby wouldn’t show up until next season after the player has earned said incentive, we’ll assume for the sake of this exercise that either such NLTBEs were not set or, if they were set, weren’t met. So the Chiefs should have at least $14.5 million in cap space available next season by rollover alone, but how else is the team looking?

Running the numbers on next season’s non-FAs (read: guys that’ll still be on roster), I’ve discovered that the team currently is set to be allocating approximately $117 million towards cap hitting player expenses. It is likely that next year’s league defined cap will be in the same range as this year’s set cap which is $120.6 million. So, before factoring in rollover money, the Chiefs are only set to have about $3.6 million freed up to spend on FAs (regardless of whether they’re the Chiefs’ own or from other teams). That’s not counting the estimated $7 million dollars that will be required to spend on next season’s draft class. So, without the rollover, the Chiefs are in the hole $3.4 million.

Looks pretty bad at first glance, but let’s tack on the rollover money: that would put the Chiefs $11.1 million under cap after the rookie class is taken into consideration. Okay, now that doesn’t look as bad, but there are at least three big names up for FA and $11.1 million cap availability looks to be able to sign only one.

There appears to be a way around this, but it’s one that Pioli may not like as it involves two of “his” players:

1) Tyson Jackson, through “help” of a contract escalator, is set to be making $14.72 million in base salary next season and has also caused additional cap hits through bonuses amounting to $2.525 million. According to NFL.com’s Brian McIntyre (formerly of Mac’s Football Blog), Tyson Jackson’s 2013 base salary is only guaranteed for $3.22 million. So it looks like a certain someone should probably be cut. In doing so, the Chiefs would free up $11.5 million dollars in cap space (as indicated in a previous article, bonus money has a way of becoming dead money, so we’re looking at $14.72 million minus the guaranteed $3.22 million the Chiefs would be required to pay Jackson out of cap hitting funds). Now we’re up to $22.6 million in available cap space in 2013.

2) Matt Cassel. Though I’ve been unable to locate how much, if any, of Matt Cassel’s base salary for 2013 & 2014 is guaranteed, we’ll assume for this exercise that none of it is, and the only Chiefs obligation would come from bonuses. Cassel is currently set to cause a $9.825 million cap hit in 2013. Were he cut (and again assuming that none of the base salary is guaranteed), the Chiefs would be looking to spend $4.2 million in dead money, freeing up about $5.625 million in 2013. This would bring the available cap space to $28.225 million dollars (assuming a Jackson cut… and, at his ludicrous 2013 salary, why shouldn’t we want to see Jackson cut?).

Now, I realize I just threw out a bunch of numbers in sentence-form, which, if you’re anything like me, makes it a little harder to follow and reference. So to make the presentation of this information a little bit easier, I’ve devised the following table

“EOS” refers to the summation of the expected cap hit Entering the OffSeason (includes both players on roster, including Jackson and Cassel, and the rookie pool of approx. $7 mil). Current rollover is what it sounds like: money that may be expected to be rolled over and help alleviate the cap room. The $11.5 million in the “Jackson” column is what could be expected to be loosened up in cap space were TJax to be cut; same with the $5.625 million in the “Cassel” column.

So the question arises: how should this potential cap money be spent? To help facilitate this line of thinking I’ve developed the following hypothetical situations.

NOTE: One thing to remember in doing these hypotheticals is that, of the 18 positions open due to contracts expiring, seven will be filled through draft (at least as of now, and whose cap hit has already been accounted for in the figures) and two (the lowest priced ones) won’t count towards the cap (cap is determined by the highest 51 contracts of the 53-man roster come the regular season), so nine spots will need to be filled through re-signing the Chiefs FAs, or signing FAs from other teams, or signing UDFAs after the draft. These nine spots will cause a minimum cap hit of $3.51 million [determined as the minimum (rookie) contract of $390,000 X 9 spots].

Hypothetical Situation #1

For whatever reason (brain damage, maybe?), it’s decided to not cut Jackson or Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $11.1 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #2

You’re slightly less brain-damaged and decide to cut Cassel and leave Jackson be. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $16.725 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #3

You’ve decided to cut Jackson, but leave Cassel on board for back-up purposes (he’s an expensive back-up, but provides a veteran presence/experience at the position, so you think the harm to the cap outweighs allowing a rookie squad plus Stanzi to run solo). After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $22.6 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #4

You’ve made the decision to cut both Jackson and Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $28.225 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Bonus: Hindsight Hypothetical

Not knowing how this season would play out up to this point, you decide to sign all the players in FA that Pioli decided to sign, but you’ve decided to tweak the offseason slightly by also re-signing Carr. The terms of the agreement are the same terms the Cowboys offered him. For the sake of this hypothetical we’re assuming matching these terms would be enough for him to re-sign with the Chiefs, childhood dreams be damned. This season, Carr’s contract hits the cap by $3.2 million; in 2013, it hits the cap by $16.3 million. The rollover money is now $11.3 million (the current $14.5 million minus the $3.2 million cap hit). In adding Carr onto the 2013 roster, and taking rookie cap into account, the new 2013 cap obligations amount to $140.3 million. After deducting the new rollover amount ($11.3 mil), you’re down to $129 million in cap obligations. The league defined cap is still $120.6 mil; you have to come into compliance. Cutting Cassel wouldn’t be enough to come into compliance ($129 mil minus $5.625 mil is still greater than $120.6 mil), so your hand is forced in cutting Jackson to free up that $11.5 mil. Without additionally cutting Cassel (yet), the cap obligations decrease to $118.5 leaving only $2.1 million in available cap (not even enough to re-sign Colquitt). Now by cutting Cassel the available cap can be increased to $7.725. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

____________

Of the four, still possible, hypotheticals, I’d personally subscribe to Hypothetical Situation #4. Cutting Jackson seems to me to be a no-brainer (no way is he worth $17.245 million, and I’d rather tie up $5.745 mil in dead money in 2013 for the sake of having the remaining $11.5 million available to help with re-signing players or potentially dabbling in FA with other teams’ players). Though, with Quinn entering FA, cutting Cassel leaves the team without a QB on roster with regular season experience, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing the Chiefs “double-tap” the QB position in the draft (ideally, Geno Smith in Round 1 and, if he or someone like him drops so far, someone like Collin Klein in Round 3 – keeping in mind that the loss of Carr will likely earn the Chiefs a compensatory Round 3 draft pick); it’d be a risk, what with both players having no NFL experience, but it’s a risk I’d like to see be taken. I know, it’s probably crazy to draft two QBs such as the ‘Skins did this past draft with RGIII and Kirk Cousins, and especially crazy given the team I’m suggesting do it (our beloved Chiefs) given the team’s history in this regard, but God help me, if Klein is available later, despite the Heisman hype, I’d love to see a QB with his fight and passion as the #2 keeping guys pumped on the sideline, and I’d trust someone like him to not do any worse than the Chiefs QBs this year were a situation to arise where he’d have to play. I’m sure it’s a pipe dream, but that’s part of what this exercise is about.

As for how I’d like to see the freed up $28.225 million spent: I’d prefer to see Bowe and Albert re-signed for certain. Given the average costs of WRs and LTs of similar quality, this could cost as little as $8 million in 2013 (akin to Carr’s deal with the ‘Boys where he accepted an incredibly low base salary in the 1^st year of the contract, given that he still received $10 million in signing bonus this season, and just allowed the team to prorate it over the course of five seasons at $2 million a season) or it could cost as high as $20 million (taking the average cap hits of comparable players’ contracts). I’ll assume the 2013 costs to be somewhere in between at $14.225 total for both players (2014’s projected cap hit based on active contracts is only $84.894378, so a deal structure closer to Carr’s wouldn’t be nearly as damaging that year).

So, in my scenario, I’m down to $14 million available. I’d definitely re-sign Colquitt and Gafford who, combined, would likely hit the cap by $3.5 million in 2013, leaving $10.5 million available.

Given that I’d be cutting one starting DE (Jackson) and letting the other walk in FA (Dorsey), I’d probably re-sign Pitoitua (whose re-signing I’m estimating to hit the 2013 cap by $1.5 million) and would gun for a DE in either Round 3 (compensatory Carr pick) or Round 4 in the draft.

Down to $9 million in cap space, I might also bring back Edgar Jones and Lilja (estimating a $2.7 million combined cap hit in 2013, $800,000 for Jones and $1.9 mil for Lilja). Jones has been a boost to ST this year and provides okay LB depth (and is one less position to be targeted in the draft) and Lilja would provide reliable back-up depth, if nothing more, and would help keep the OL more intact as they continue to gel together in this year’s new zone blocking system.

Two cap-hitting roster spots remain in this scenario and I’ll assume they’ll be filled by rookie UDFAs (for a cap hit of about $800,000) bringing the remaining money down to about $5.9 million, which I might let ride into 2014.

For the draft I’d target: QB, ILB (I’m letting both Belcher and Siler walk after all), DE & DB (in that order of importance).

As for my thoughts on the “Hindsight Hypothetical”: Carr really doesn’t look like he’d have been worth it. With only $7.725 mil remaining, which is really only about $4.225 mil after deducting the minimum $3.51 mil for nine open roster spots (which I mentioned in my “note” up there), a ton of useful players would need to be allowed to walk and maybe one of Bowe, Albert or Dorsey (at absolute best) could’ve been re-signed. At risk to be replaced through rookies (by drafting or signing as UDFA) would’ve been QB (Cassel would’ve had to been cut, which looks like an inevitability now, but had he returned to 2010 form would be deemed a problem, and Quinn probably couldn’t be re-signed even if you wanted to), both starting DEs and one of the back-up DEs, two out of three starting OL positions (Albert & Lilja), star WR (Bowe), starting ILB (Belcher) and his best back-up option (Siler), the punter, the long snapper, and two veteran S’s (Daniels and Elam; leaving only current rookie Tysyn Hartman and rookie IR player De’quan Menzie as backups). That would be cause for a massive rebuild (all those positions can’t be addressed in the draft, and not early enough in the draft to be hopeful about the players’ ability to replace the lost players with an equal or higher level) and would put the Chiefs in a much, much worse position than the team currently finds itself in. Not signing Winston, Boss or Routt would’ve cleared up about a maximum of $10 mil to be rolled over into next season, and cleared up active contract requirements in 2013 to the tune of about $18.2 mil for a total of $28.2 mil. These are much nicer figures for signing at least two of the big three in 2013, but doesn’t address the issue of what to do about RT this season (whichever choice being made decreasing the rollover amount), or the depth at TE this season (a “contingency plan” being a top concern considering Moeaki’s early injury in 2011), and the secondary depth would still be the same it is today (meaning it would still not be good enough). Maybe things could’ve worked out, but considering it would require leaving nearly $24.5 mil in available cap this year (for the intent purpose of rolling the money over to help during the 2013 season), the heat from fans and media for any underperformance while having greater cap space availability would be even hotter than it is now; not to mention the heat turning up if Moeaki fell to injury without preemptive back-up efforts being made, or BRich received an extension.

As for whether or not the Chiefs should make a play on Matt Flynn or another prospect to help turn around this season now: just keep in mind that the acquisition of such a player would decrease the available funds for rollover into 2013, and that if such player had a contract for more than just this 2012 season you’d have to increase the cap numbers for 2013, too . This would also affect the hypotheticals and how likely it’d be to re-sign who you deem to be key players next year*. Trading for a QB or picking up a QB from FA (McNabb?? Garrard??) might not be as harmful as re-signing Carr could’ve been. The re-signing of Carr would have not only decreased how much cap was left to rollover into 2013 by $3 mil, but also would have added the obligation of a $16.3 mil cap hit to next season which is what would’ve made it so potentially damaging. So, if you feel a QB now would be worth the cost, feel free to hypothesize in the Comments section, just be mindful that how money is spent in this season does have an effect on what personnel moves may be made next season.

*Assuming that all that changes hands are Flynn and draft picks. If someone like Bowe were traded for Flynn directly, or traded to MIA for picks, and picks traded to SEA for Flynn, then the loss of Bowe’s salary would make up for the addition of Flynn’s. In that case both Albert and Dorsey could be re-signed next year, if so chosen, what with Bowe out of the mix.

Let me hear your thoughts. Which hypothetical would you use? Who would you re-sign? What positions (and maybe even who, specifically) would you target in the draft? After seeing a more comprehensive look at the cap figures, do you think signing Carr would’ve been more trouble than it was worth? Are you still frustrated about this year’s available cap space, even after seeing situations in which it might be put to better use next year? Do you feel a different QB now would be worth the cost elsewhere?

Let me hear it all; I’m curious as to what options my fellow Addicts think would be possible in terms of player personnel moves intended to make the 2013 Chiefs a more competitive team. Despite being mostly realistic, I was admittedly a little pie-in-the-sky with my hopes of drafting both Geno and Klein; feel free to do similarly (but let’s try to not go too extreme into complete delusion, as euphoric as it might be, and keep it more in the realm of realism and where we think our Chiefs might be headed).

Sound off, Addicts!

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Yesterday there was a flurry of activity in Chiefs Nation when Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports mentioned that he thought it was plausible that the Kansas City Chiefs were in trade talks with WR Dwayne Bowe.

Apparently the whole thing started when an ESPN Insider article was posted suggesting that the Dolphins and Chiefs were talking trade. As I am sure you know, ESPN Insider is the biggest helping of bullshit available for consumption on ESPN.com and that includes the incessant Tim Tebow coverage. That portion of the site is designed to trick poor sports fans into shelling out a few bucks to read speculation they can get elsewhere on the internet for free. It’s garbage. But since it comes from ESPN, it is immediately lent some credibility.

So Cole gets asked about the whole thing and says he thinks it is plausible and a shit-storm of Tweets and articles start flying.

We still don’t know if there is a kernel of truth to all this. Cole clarified he was not reporting anything so all we’re left with here is the word of ESPN Insider. Unfortunately, there is no way to know if they actually heard something concrete or were just making stuff up.

Whether the situation is true or not really doesn’t matter. The trade deadline is October 30th so we’ll find out soon enough.

But should we have to?

This entire situation brings up an interesting question. Most folk seem to think that Chiefs GM Scott Pioli’s seat is very, very hot. There has even been some speculation that he could be fired this week. I’m not sure that is going to happen but you have to believe that if the Chiefs continue to lose that Clark Hunt will want to make a move. In fact, it is possible that Hunt has already decided to replace Pioli but wants to have his replacement lined up before he cuts the cord.

The problem is that unless he is told otherwise by Hunt, Pioli is going to keep doing his job as if he is coming back next season. That means if Pioli really does think trading Bowe is a good idea, he could pull the trigger and move the WR at some point in the next two weeks.

How angry do you think Chiefs fans would be if Pioli traded away one of the team’s best offensive players for a 2nd or 3rd round pick and was then fired a week later? Or even at the end of the season?

Bowe is a valuable asset to the Chiefs and they can’t afford to let an outgoing GM decide his fate. If Hunt is considering, even a little bit, firing Pioli at some point this year, at the very least he needs to tell Pioli that he is forbidden from making any major trade deal.

The Chiefs still have plenty of options concerning Bowe. For one, the can still use the franchise tag on him again this offseason so Bowe isn’t going anywhere in 2013 unless the Chiefs say so. A new GM, if one is brought in, might value Bowe a heck of a lot more than Pioli, especially if that GM is going to be drafting a QB such as Geno Smith or Matt Barkley this offseason.

Cole reported that Bowe wants out of KC “badly” and I am sure he does but his attitude might change if  Hunt decides to bring in a new coach, QB, and a GM that wants to pay the WR.

I am sure Hunt is considering all this but if he isn’t, he needs to. Unless Hunt is absolutely committed to Pioli for, in my opinion, at least three more years, he has no business letting the GM trade away one of the team’s most productive players for an unknown quantity in the form of a draft pick.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports is reporting that Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe wants out of Kansas City “badly.”

I can report this: Bowe wants out of KC very badly. Not exactly a revelation, but true.

— Jason Cole (@JasonColeYahoo) October 17, 2012

This comes after an apparently inaccurate report that the Chiefs and Dolphins were trying to negotiate a trade for Bowe. Cole was speaking on a radio show in Florida and he mentioned that Bowe would be a likely target for the Dolphins. Somehow it got taken the wrong way and rumors started trickling out that there was a trade on the table.

Cole clarified:

Just to clarify something: I’m NOT reporting the KC and Miami are talki g trade over Bowe. Not yet, at least. Misunderstanding by someone

— Jason Cole (@JasonColeYahoo) October 17, 2012

I’m afraid there just isn’t a lot of good news out there for Chiefs fans this season. I’m getting weary just reporting all the negativity.

Can anyone really blame Bowe for wanting out of KC? He has no QB, the team won’t offer him a long-term deal and the organization is an absolute mess.

It would appear KC’s only hope of keeping Bowe long-term is if Scott Pioli is replaced and the new GM sees the value in having a stud WR. Otherwise…it doesn’t look too good.

Going into yesterday’s game, I thought it was entirely possible the Chiefs would lose. In fact, the Bills were viewed as more or less equal to the Chiefs in terms of talent, so the safe pick in this game was probably Buffalo, given that it was their home opener and they also wanted to make a statement after a blowout loss.

Still, although a loss is just a loss whether you lose by a point or a million, it does matter how you lose, and that’s what stood out most in this game.

Once again, a defense that was supposed to be in the top 10 in the league got carved to pieces. Coverages were routinely blown. Tackling was poor. We had no pressure on the quarterback, and made no plays in the secondary.

After Week 1, I suspected that ILB Derrick Johnson might not yet be fully recovered from his ankle injury. This game pretty much confirms that. He definitely did not show the speed and athleticism that makes him a dynamic player in the middle of his defense. He could not keep up with Buffalo’s running backs and he was horrendous in coverage. Belcher continued to be a huge liability when defending the pass and Flowers looked far from 100 percent.

Timothy T. Ludwig-US PRESSWIRE

No one in the ACL crew looked like they had their 2010 spark back. TE Tony Moeaki was never getting separation and only caught one pass on four targets. Jamaal Charles was totally ineffective in the run game and was put on ice, possibly due to a yet undisclosed injury. S Eric Berry was virtually invisible out there. We now have to consider the possibility that some or all three of those players may never fully recover from their bad knees.

Who would have guessed that S Kendrick Lewis would be so missed?

I presume everyone will now pile on Matt Cassel for this loss, but as with last game, I don’t see it. His stat line was 23/42 for 301 yards, 2 TD 1 INT. In a win, this would be considered a pretty good performance. No one on either side of the ball stepped up when called upon.

I’m just going to say it right now, Jon Baldwin may be a bust. We had high expectations for him given that he was lighting it up in camp, but after seeing how the Chiefs D-backs have been playing, anyone on the AA staff could have come out of St. Joe as a training camp sensation. He wasn’t even targeted against the Falcons and did not look good against the Bills.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

Baldwin never seems to run his routes with confidence and always expects to be able to outmuscle defenders in jump ball situations with his body skills — except that he doesn’t, and one way or the other, we need him to catch and run, not loiter around on the sideline as if he’s playing some elaborate form of Keep Away. In the second half, it was clear that Cassel was forcing the ball to him in the hopes of making something happen deep downfield. Baldwin was never open, never ready and only reeled in half of the balls thrown his way. He got us 62 yards, but in the worst way. I hope I’m wrong about him.

Dexter McCluster, again, was KC’s only reliable receiver, consistently getting open and catching four passes on five targets. TE Kevin Boss again caught a pretty pass, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t miss time after getting knocked out cold after a nasty blow to the head (which wasn’t really a penalty, but the refs gave us that one). As has long been the case, WR Dwayne Bowe emerged in the second half as the Chiefs’ only big-play threat, catching eight passes for 102 yards and 2 TDs.

Timothy T. Ludwig-US PRESSWIRE

This too, however, has a dark undercurrent to it though, as BJ Kissel pointed out on the Chop Talk postgame podcast. It is currently looking like the Chiefs will have to franchise Bowe again this year, to which he will likely respond by holding out again. The alternative is to pay him big bucks that Pioli doesn’t want to shell out and honestly may be more than he is worth. Still, as Kissel said, “This offense is scary to think about without Dwayne Bowe on this team.”

The offensive line, which was also supposed to be a great strength of this team in 2012, floundered. Cassel was under near-constant pressure and took five sacks. In his short, but illustrious career, this is the first time that Bills DT Kyle Williams has gotten two sacks in one game, and he also drove G Jon Asamoah into Charles for a 5-yard loss. Congratulations, Kyle.

RB Peyton Hillis, who was supposed to be the safe, pounding runner, gave up a critical fumble on the 1-yard line.

But, what killed the Chiefs most in this game was not the poor play of individual players or units, it was the shell-shocked reaction of the entire team to the Bills’ initial success. Early in the second quarter you could see the team as a whole shaking their heads and looking at the scoreboard as if to say, “Well, I guess this just isn’t our game.”

This is unacceptable, and it was by far the most infuriating part of this game. This team seemed to be totally unprepared and they gave up early. That’ll happen in high school. It’ll happen in college. This is unacceptable in the pros.

Special teams gave up another long kickoff return for a touchdown at the worst possible time allowing the Bills to seal the victory in the third quarter. Even my wife, who is still learning the game, correctly pointed out that no one looked focused.

Cassel, the usual scapegoat, was also strip-sacked and was never even close to saving us in the game, but he also scrambled well and showed toughness while getting what little was there. In the end, Cassel, McCluster and Bowe seemed like the only players still interested in playing the game by halftime.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

This is where the coach is supposed to come in. Not only did the Chiefs seem unprepared, they looked utterly outcoached on defense. With as bad as DJ has looked against the pass, how could Crennel put him in coverage on TE Scott Chandler – one of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite weapons – in the red zone, allowing him to give up an easy touchdown on virtually the exact same play that Tony G scored with last week?

Comparatively, Brian Daboll’s scheme overall looks like it will get us places this year. I liked some of the matchups he exploited, but I can’t honestly say anything positive about the defense.

After halftime, I was expecting the Chiefs to come back fired up, and, while I knew likely wouldn’t be able to catch up to the Bills, I expected them to at least play like professionals. Instead they came out flatter than before. Crennel, who is known for his friendly, soft-spoken demeanor, was unable to get rally the troops. In that situation, the players didn’t need a friend; they needed leader that would kick them in the ass and tell them to go out and play with pride.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

When it was time for the Chiefs to pick a new head coach after the 2011 season, I was one of the few who went against the grain in suggesting that Crennel was not the best choice. In addition to the fact that he had been unsuccessful in the top job before, many of the things that doomed Todd Haley’s tenure in KC – namely blowout losses – were failures on Crennel’s part as well. Getting torched for lopsided losses is as much the defensive coordinator’s fault as it is the head coach’s. Crennel has now presided as DC over two seasons of disgustingly poor defensive play in the opening games.

Although he engineered big wins in the last three games of the season, not much else stands out in his resume other than the fact that he is from the New England system and the players seem to like him.

After the game, Crennel said he didn’t really know how or why the Chiefs got so thoroughly demolished in the game. Paddy quoted him as saying, “I’m gonna say that I thought we would be better. I really thought that we would be better but we’re not so we’ve got to figure out why that is.”

This is very distressing.

Now, because I have just spewed 1,300+ words of negativity, here’s some happy thoughts for anyone still reading:

1.) The Chiefs came back from blowout losses and crucial injuries in the first two weeks of the season last year, and stayed in division contention to the end. So, if you haven’t blacked it out of your memory, you will recall that you felt this bad after Week 2 last year and it got better.

2.) The Chiefs aren’t the only team that has allowed a league-high 75 points so far in the 2012 season. We are tied with the New Orleans Saints and we play them next week.

3.) Kansas City is currently fifth in the league in total offense, fifth in rushing and 11^th in passing. So, hey, at least that’s not our biggest problem anymore!

4.) As bad as the Chiefs’ loss today was, the Raiders’ beatdown was worse. They got crushed 13-35 against the Miami Dolphins, considered by many to be the worst team in the league.

5.) Speaking of the ‘Phins, it took the team half of the season to learn Daboll’s complicated offense, but after playing awful in their first seven games, Miami went 6-3 starting in Week 9 (against the Chiefs) with a combined score of 222-131. In other words, don’t worry. The Chiefs are just going to be late bloomers.

6.) Remember that Arizona team that we mowed over in the preseason? Well, they just beat the New England Patriots in Foxborough. If they’re good enough to do that, then we must have something.

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

According to Josh Looney of KCChiefs.com, Kansas City Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe will see his first action of the 2012 season this Friday night when the Chiefs host the Seattle Seahwks.

Dwayne Bowe will play Friday night vs Seattle. “a couple plays here and there,” Coach Crennel said. #Chiefs

— Josh Looney (@JoshLooney) August 22, 2012

It was uncertain whether the Chiefs would play Bowe Friday. He didn’t sign his franchise tender until late last week and he didn’t have his first padded practice with his teammates until Tuesday.

Bowe is likely still learning Brian Daboll’s offense. He has stated that he has been coming in early and leaving late in order to learn his assignments and also Daboll’s terminology. Bowe didn’t seem too concerned about his ability to pick things up quickly and it would seem the Chiefs aren’t too concerned either.

I doubt we will see a ton of Bowe Friday. More than likely he will have a set package of plays that he takes part in to get him started. The Chiefs have enough depth at receiver that they can swap Bowe for Baldwin or Breaston on the outside and still run a two WR set that features credible threats.

What do you think, Addicts? Will Bowe make an impact Friday night or will his being behind cause him to get off to a slow start this season?

Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

After a summer of wrangling, a string of missed preseason workouts, and scores of unnecessary ulcers across Chiefs nation, Dwayne Bowe is finally in pads and practicing. Players hardly ever garner sympathy from fans for holding out (we want our team’s players to commit to playing for small amounts so we can afford other superstars, and they damn well better not miss any practice time that threatens team success), and the past month failed to win Bowe any support as his actions were viewed as a selfish excuse to avoid training camp. If I were Bowe, I too would lack desire to stay in a cramped dorm room for no pay (Bowe couldn’t be fined for not attending camp because he wasn’t on contract, so there was no financial incentive for him to show up). However, I’m a fan that wants what’s best for the Chiefs, so I get to deem his actions selfish. That’s the way the sports world works. Yet as much as it hurts to say, there is a chance Bowe won’t be suiting up in red and gold next year. The odds of this scenario playing out rest on a few important questions:

Can Jon Baldwin Be a #1 Wide Receiver?

The Chiefs would only be willing to part with Bowe if they believe Baldwin can step up and replace him, and there are many reasons to believe he can be a successful #1. He’s 6-4 with speed. He displayed tremendous acrobatic skills at Pitt where attitude concerns, not playing ability, prevented him from being drafted earlier than 26th. Some of last year’s lack of production can be attributed to the infamous wrist injury that caused him to miss the preseason and part of the regular season. Plus, wide receivers typically need a year to break out anyway (Bowe being an exception* to this rule).

Of course, there’s one quick response to these declarations: prove it. Sports fans are notoriously subject to groupthink, and every message board out there has someone proclaiming Baldwin will have a breakout season based on a pretty catch they heard he made in training camp. He may have 55 catches for 700 yards this year, and if he did I wouldn’t be overly surprised, but I need to see it to believe it. He was targeted 52 times in 2011 but only hauled in 21 catches – by far the worst ratio on the team. Forgive me if my confidence still needs some reinforcement.

*As a side note, Bowe’s exceptional rookie season in 2007 (70 receptions, 995 yards) may have been a function of both his talents and his teammates’ lack of’ ‘em. The Chiefs’ #2 and #3 WRs were Jeff Webb and Samie Parker. You haven’t heard of these guys recently because they’re playing in the United Football League and Canadian Football League, respectively. Bowe caught passes partially because he and Tony Gonzalez were the only viable targets on the field to throw to.

What Does This Do to the Rest of the Depth Chart?

With Baldwin at #1, Breaston returns to the second receiving option and McCluster moves into the slot. With Wylie in the mix, this becomes a much shorter (literally) receiving crew. If the Chiefs don’t pick up another solid receiver, this unit goes from one of the most exciting in the league to one of the most pedestrian faster than a Shaun Draughn stutter step. You’re excited for this offense because of the myriad weapons it will employ, and Bowe is a very necessary part of the equation.

Can Bowe’s Salary Demands Buy Something Better?

We don’t know what each side’s final offer was, but it appears Bowe was demanding Larry Fitzgerald money while offering slightly less than Fitzgerald skills. However, salary decisions are based on a cost-benefit analysis and I don’t see anyone who offers the same or greater benefit for the same or lower cost. Assuming Hillis has a solid season he will demand more than his current contract, and the Chiefs will be faced with a choice of whether to pay top dollar for the privilege of a change-of-pace back. Another elite linebacker could make the defense hella-fun (James Laurinaitis is available next year — how friggin’ awesome would it be to pair him inside next to Hali, Houston, and Johnson!?). The recent Kendrick Lewis and Brandon Flowers injuries suggest another starting caliber defensive back would be a good investment. A host of receivers will also be available, though none would provide an upgrade from Bowe. Additionally, we can all cross our fingers and wish really, really hard for Flacco to suddenly become discontent and not resign with Baltimore. In the end, I look at the list of upcoming free agents and nothing really stands out to me. A couple first round draft picks can always be traded for an expensive star, but short of this, there aren’t a lot of investments for the Chiefs to spend their sizable cap space on that offer a solid upgrade over the current starters. And with $15 million to play with, the Chiefs can probably afford to resign Bowe, resign Hillis, and bring in a roster addition.

Does Bowe Even Want to Stay in Kansas City?

Although photos of a #82 Dodge Charger began circulating the internet last month, it’s unknown if this was a recent purchase or came out of a garage during the Herman Edwards era. Bowe is a certifiable star in the area and hasn’t caused a lot of trouble for the franchise. There are also a host of reasons anyone would want to play in Kansas City: players love Crennel; the opportunity to win playoff games now; the youth to suggest staying power; the fan base. It’s true Kansas City will never offer the glitz of New York or the franchise history of Dallas (see Brandon Carr). However, there’s no indication Bowe is dissatisfied with the Chiefs; he just wanted more guaranteed money over the long term. If Bowe truly wanted out, he could have made these intentions clear to see what other teams would bite.

Because he was designated a non-exclusive franchise player, Bowe may negotiate with other NFL teams but the Chiefs have the option of matching any offer or receiving two first round picks as compensation for losing Bowe. I doubt there are many teams willing to offer more than the Chiefs would be willing to match right now, which would make Bowe wait to shop around his services until the Chiefs don’t have the option of matching opposition offers if he really wanted out.

The answers to the questions above are Probably, Yikes, Unlikely, and Why Not? Of course, this is a moot point if Kansas City simply franchises him a second straight year (bonus: AA gets to recycle this article by simply changing the title to “Will Dwayne Bowe Be a Chief in 2014?”). If they can afford it, there’s no good reason the Chiefs shouldn’t just have two #1 talents at wide receiver. I also think the number of weapons on this team will hurt Bowe’s production, which should hold down his value and decrease his leverage. In the end, it’s hard to see Bowe playing somewhere else in 2013 because the Chiefs can afford to keep him, and they can’t afford to lose him.

Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs have confirmed that WR Dwayne Bowe has signed his franchise tender. He will now officially join the team and has been added to the 90-man roster.

Franchised #Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe has signed his franchise tender. #ChiefsCamp

— Josh Looney (@JoshLooney) August 17, 2012

Just like we predicted, Bowe signed his tender the very second the Chiefs concluded their training camp practices in St. Joe.

Bowe will now have to spend the next couple of weeks trying to catch up with Brian Daboll’s offense. He likely has had the playbook for a while, but there is no telling how much he has studied it. Also, since Bowe didn’t attend any of the OTA practices earlier this offseason, he is likely to be far behind his teammates.

But don’t expect that to matter to head coach Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. They are likely thrilled to have a weapon like Bowe back in the fold and I am sure they will spend considerable time getting him comfortable with the new scheme.

There is almost no chance of Bowe playing in this weekend’s game against the St. Louis Rams but he will be able to see action in the final two preseason games against the Seahawks and Packers.

The Kansas City Chiefs are at full strength!

Is Dwayne Bowe in a plane on his way to Kansas City?

One Twitter user swears he is.

Not that great of a shot but… Believe it! @arrowheadpride @ssj_whb @nate_bukaty twitter.com/marcus_nichols…

— Marcus Nichols (@marcus_nichols) August 10, 2012

Next he tweeted the above photo. He claims that he is on a Delta flight bound for KC and that he is using the in-flight internet connection.

I think the from the facial hair on the upper lip (what you can see of it) the profile looks like it could be D-Bowe.

It would also make sense for Bowe to come to KC to sign his franchise tender today. The Chiefs are in town so Bowe can meet up with Pioli to ink the deal. He can also catch up with his teammates and possibly even make an appearance on the sideline for tonight’s game. Once it is all over, Bowe could go back to St. Joe with the Chiefs and get to work.

Showing up now would have gotten Bowe out of a couple of weeks of training camp but it will also give him a couple of weeks to practice and get ready for the season. None of this holdout has made sense in my view, but sitting out the entire offseason would have been a colossal mistake on Bowe’s part.

Then again, this guy could be full of it.

He hasn’t attempted to send out another picture, though he may try to get one after the plane lands. It doesn’t appear he is at a very favorable angle.

If it is Bowe and he is in town to sign his deal, we’ll likely find our soon anyway.

We’ll keep you posted.

UPDATE:

Looks like it was Bowe.

Breaking news!!!! Dwayne Bowe just touched down at KCI! Spoke to him. He had no comment.

— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) August 10, 2012

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City Chiefs WR Jonathan Baldwin continues to turn heads on a daily basis in training camp.

Baldwin has been the offseason rock star in Kansas City since way back during OTAs. The big WR had a very disappointing rookie season but it would appear he is ready to put that behind him. Baldwin kept his head down this offseason and returned to the team looking like a different person. He’s noticeably bigger. Whereas last season he looked thin and gangly, now he appears much more physically imposing.

But it isn’t just the weight room where Baldwin has put in work. It is clear he has been working on his route running and hands as well. AA’s camp reporters have been raving about Baldwin and our own Mike Gooding swears he can’t recall seeing Baldwin drop a pass yet.

With #1 WR Dwayne Bowe staying away from the team, Baldwin is seizing the opportunity to take over as KC’s lead receiver. If Baldwin looks as good in the preseason games as he has in practice and then translates that into regular season success, Bowe could find himself knocked down the depth chart when he does return.

For a little background on the catch below, check out a collection of tweets our friend Joel Thorman put together over at Arrowhead Pride. This pass was a sure interception until Baldwin went over the top and took it away. Just. Awesome.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

According to Pro Football Talk, Kansas City Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe plans to sign his franchise tender some time before the start of the NFL regular season.

From PFT:

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, Bowe plans to show before the regular season begins.

It’s not uncommon for franchise players to stay away until the days preceding the start of the regular season. Since the player isn’t under contract, he can’t be fined. And since the franchise level play doesn’t commence until the real games start, the player gets his full salary if he makes it back in time for the first regular-season game.

We assumed this was the case but it nice to hear a report confirming that.

Bowe doesn’t have to show up until the Tuesday after Week 10. After that date, Bowe would not get credit for an NFL season in which case the Chiefs could franchise him again at the same level.

The problem is, there is too much money on the line for Bowe not to be there for each week of the regular season. That means he will likely stay home until a week or so before the games start getting played.

As I’ve pointed out before, this is a stupid move on Bowe’s part. His absence will almost certainly set him back and there is no telling what effect that could have on the KC offense early on in the season.

There is no getting around it. The longer Bowe stays away, the more he is screwing his teammates. The Chiefs won’t be as good Week 1 as they would have been had Bowe been practicing with them from the beginning.

Way to go Dwayne.

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe is cutting off his nose to spite his face.

There is no other way to put it.

We’ve been highly critical of the Chiefs brass on this site when we feel they step out of line and to be sure, we’ve got some gripes with their latest antics of using your tax dollars to pay their tax bills.

But on the issue of Dwayne Bowe’s holdout, it is hard not to get behind the Chiefs.

I believe Dwayne Bowe has earned a reasonable, long-term deal. I’ve long said that until the Chiefs have three wide receivers better than Bowe that they had no business letting him walk. Since the departure of Tony Gonzalez, Bowe has been the only legit WR threat the Chiefs have had.

But the Chiefs aren’t letting Bowe walk. They’ve franchised him and have offered him a one-year deal worth about $9.5 million dollars.

We have no way of knowing what was going on behind closed doors in the negotiations between the Chiefs and Bowe. We’ll likely never find out if Bowe was asking for way too much money or if the Chiefs were offering an insultingly low amount.

But the club has offered him $9 million and that is nothing to sneeze at.

Yet Bowe is doing just that.

I understand Bowe’s initial holdout. It made sense. Before the deadline for franchise players to secure a long-term deal, it made sense for Bowe to wait. He had nothing to gain by signing the tag before the deadline. That is why I was convinced that once the deadline did pass, Bowe would sign his deal and show up to camp.

Only he didn’t.

If this development doesn’t have you worried, it should. It should also make you angry.

Per the rules of the new CBA, Dwayne Bowe has to play the 2012 NFL season under the franchise contract tender the

Nov 13, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (82) looks to the sidelines against the Denver Broncos in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Denver won the game 17-10. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Chiefs offered him. If he doesn’t play under that contract, he can’t play at all. He’ll get no money and he will also miss out on being credited for a full NFL season, which means he doesn’t get credit for playing a season under the tag, which means he can keep getting tagged. A player can only be tagged three times in his career, only twice by the same team. If Bowe’s goal is to get a long-term contract, sitting out the 2012 season will only delay that.

So what does Bowe have to gain by not showing up to Chiefs training camp on time?

Nothing.

So why is Bowe doing this?

Only he knows for sure but it certainly looks like the goal here is to screw over the Chiefs for not giving him what he wanted. His absence will set the offensive chemistry back. There is no doubt that the Chiefs are a better offensive football team with Bowe on the field so the longer he is away, the more the Chiefs will suffer.

What should really worry Chiefs fans is how much Bowe intends to hurt the Chiefs. There are a couple of possible outcomes here:

Bowe sits out the first week of camp.

Bowe could be planning to sit out the first week of camp in protest and to send a message. Then again, Bowe already sat out the OTA practices and the mandatory mini-camp so the message has certainly be sent.

Bowe sits out the entire St. Joseph portion of camp.

Sitting out the entire St. Joesph portion of training camp would certainly be a blow and could keep the Chiefs offense from hitting the ground running for the season opener.  It would keep Bowe from having to go sweat in the heat and from having to stay in a dorm room away from home. I can see the draw there. If this is the goal then Bowe could show up for the last week of practices in Kansas City before the regular season starts. That was the scenario that ESPN’s Adam Schefter predicted just before the start of training camp.

Bowe sits out until Week 11.

Bowe has to play at least six games to accrue an NFL season. Sitting out the first 10 games would deal a severe blow to the Chiefs without hurting Bowe’s chances of becoming a free agent.

This scenario is unlikely for a couple of reasons. For starters, if Bowe doesn’t play, Bowe doesn’t get paid. He’ll miss game checks if he sits out.

Also, even though he’d accrue a season, Bowe could still be franchised by the Chiefs again next offseason. So while Bowe could make things ugly for the Chiefs, the Chiefs would still hold his rights meaning there would still be no guarantee that he’d become a free agent and get a long-term deal.

Looking at the above options, I’d say the most likely is that Bowe is simply sitting out training camp to screw the Chiefs and avoid having to go sweat it out. Most all NFL players hate camp and I am sure Bowe is no different.

If that is indeed the case or even if it isn’t, Bowe is a fool. He may be hurting the Chiefs but in the end, he is doing far more damage to himself.

Bowe’s best road to a long-term deal, whether it comes from the Chiefs or via free agency, is to show up, practice and have a career year. That would inflate Bowe’s value and either force the Chiefs to pay up or cut him loose. It is possible that they could franchise him again but there isn’t anything Bowe can do about that.

This holdout could drastically reduce Bowe’s effectiveness this season, thus drastically reducing his value as a potential free agent next season. He is likely to be way behind in learning Brian Daboll’s new offense he could very well find himself starting the season on the bench. Let’s also not forget that Bowe once showed up to camp extremely out of shape. While he may be working out during his holdout, there is no substitution for getting in football shape on the field in camp and preseason games. Not being prepared in the NFL can really kill a team and if you don’t believe me, just recall last offseason when head coach Todd Haley focused too much on conditioning and not enough on football practice. The Chiefs were horrid the first three games of 2011 and it ultimately cost the team a playoff spot and Haley his job.

Look, this is Bowe’s decision to make. It is his life, his money and his career. Maybe he can just show up the week before camp, learn the playbook, develop chemistry in the new offense and produce a terrific season. Bowe is, after all, a tremendous athlete. If he can miss all of camp and still show up and help the Chiefs win games, it’s no skin off my back.

Chances are, however, there will be some damage to both the Chiefs and Bowe.

Knowing the score here, it is hard not to shake your head at the whole situation, especially as reports continue to pour out of camp that WR Jonathan Baldwin is having a tremendous camp. By the time this mess plays out, Bowe could find himself as the #2 receiver on a team that likes to run the football. That, I promise you, won’t be raising his free agency stock.

Bowe already has a reputation of being a bit of a knucklehead. Should he turn in his second sub-par season in three years because of a foolish, spiteful holdout designed to get him out of training camp, that reputation will only grow.

Just in time for the Chiefs to anoint Jonathan Baldwin as their new star receiver…while giving Dwayne Bowe what he wants; a shot at free agency.

July 29, 2012; St. Joseph, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli leaves the field after training camp at Missouri Western State University. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Everyone wants to know when the situation with Dwayne Bowe staying away from training camp will resolve itself, but if they’re looking to get answers from Chiefs GM Scott Pioli, they’ve got another thing coming.

Pioli was on both 610 Sports Radio and 810 WHB and though he was asked about the Bowe situation, he wasn’t talking.

“This is one of those questions, and I understand you asking,”Pioli told Jay Binkley on 610. “It has to come up. But out of respect to Dwayne, the process, the Chiefs and everybody involved, I just don’t think it’s healthy to talk about it, Jay, because I could say something seemingly innocuous about where things are or where I hope things to be and it be, not twisted by you, but just maybe taken the wrong way by someone. Everyone knows what the circumstances are, what the deadlines are, and those things tend to work themselves out. I don’t ever want Dwayne or anyone else to think we’re trying to leverage him, or he’s trying to leverage us. Right way the way things are it’s being handed professionally by both sides.”

Pioli said pretty much the same thing on 810.

We can’t really blame for Pioli here. There is nothing to gain by him going into details. He’s right; we know the score. The deadline is passed. There is nothing to be done now except for Bowe to show up and play for $9 million. Or not.

I would say that Bowe will definitely show up at some point but I am not so sure. I thought he’d be there for the start of camp and he proved me wrong. I’m finished trying to predict what Bowe will do next.

What do you think Addicts? Will Bowe show? Or will he drag this into the season?

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs returned to the field today for their first official practice of their 2012 training camp.

Head coach Romeo Crennel took the podium and addressed a couple of topics. The big question on everyone’s mind was about the whereabouts of WR Dwayne Bowe. Unfortunately, Crennel didn’t have an answer.

“He is not here, and the only thing that I can tell you is that he is not here,” said Crennel. “I’m only working with the guys who are here, so I know nothing about the situation. I have not spoken with him or anything like that, so we’re going to try to get the guys better who are here and try to make those guys better and go forward from that aspect.”

This is pretty much what we would have expected Crennel to say. the head coach has nothing to do with negotiations so there isn’t much he can do other than work with the guys he has.

While Bowe was absent, three players that were missing for most of last season returned to action at long last. Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki.

“They all passed the physical and we will be working with all of them in practice, Tony, Eric and Jamaal,” said Crennel. “We might have to manage them a little bit if they get a little irritated in their joint that they had their surgery on, but they should be good to go … They look pretty good. They’re running around and they’ve got some bounce in their step, so I feel pretty good about them.”

The Chiefs are sure to take things slow with these three payers. The worst thing they could do is rush them back too early and cause them to miss more time.

Lastly, Crennel was asked about the incident during the MLB ALl-Star game festivities in wich Chiefs QB Matt Cassel was lightly booed at a charity softball game.

“I was not in town and it was after the fact that I heard that, but what I think it will do, will be motivation for Matt to come out and prove that he is the guy that can get it done and lead this team to the playoffs like he’s done before, said Crennel.”I think that that’s what will happen.”

Terrific answer from Crennel. He showed confidence in his QB and answered a negative question with a positive response. It is nice to hear Crennel talking about going to the playoffs.

It sure beats listening to Todd Haley talking about how the Chiefs “aren’t a good team yet.”

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe is not at training camp, according to multiple media reports.

Bowe has refused to sign his franchise tender and he now has no other choice but to play the 2012 season under the tag because the deadline for the Chiefs and Bowe reaching a long term deal has passed.

The fact that Bowe is choosing not to attend camp could mean that relations between the WR and the team are worse than we thought.

Keep in mind that Bowe is not under contract with the Chiefs. The team holds his rights but he cannot be fined for not showing up. In fact, Bowe could drag this out well into the season if he likes without penalty. At a certain point he will have to report, however, or he will not gain an eligible year of play. If that were to happen, the Chiefs would simply be able to franchise him again at the same level, delaying Bowe’s shot at free agency yet another year.

I think Bowe is making a big, big mistake here. He is not only hurting the team, he is hurting himself. Missing camp will put Bowe behind and it may even land him on the bench. That means his on-field performance will suffer, thus lowering his value if he does hit free agency next year. The best thing Bowe could do for himself is show up and have a great season.

It stinks that Bowe isn’t getting the deal he wants but you know what? $9 million is nothing to sneeze at. I have supported Bowe’s staying away during OTAs but now that the deadline has passed, I can no longer get on board. Before it was a leverage game. Now Bowe just looks to be reinforcing all the negative things that have been written about him over the years.

Get to work, Bowe.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs will be arriving in St. Joseph today in preparation for training camp which will kick off tomorrow when the team hits the field for its first practice.

The story lines will be many throughout camp, but today the focus will be on just two players: Dwayne Bowe and Dontari Poe. Neither player has a contract yet.

By now you know the story. Bowe has to play the 2012 season under the franchise tender the Chiefs offered him. He has previously said that he would be at camp on time. However, yesterday’s prediction (not a report) by Adam Schefter of ESPN , that Bowe would hold out long into camp, has some Chiefs fans worried. We’ll find out today if Bowe plans to stay true to his word of if he plans to stick it to the Chiefs (and himself) by continuing what is now a pointless holdout.

As for Poe, the situation is a little less clear. Just a couple of days ago there were reports that the Chiefs and Poe were not close on a deal. The Chiefs don’t usually announce signings until the pen hits the paper so there is a chance a deal is in place and that Poe will sign it when he arrives today for camp. If there isn’t a deal, well then presumably Poe won’t show and then we’ll know where that situation stands.

Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has done a pretty good job of getting his draft picks in on time, except for OLB Justin Houston, who did miss some time last season while his deal was being completed.

We’ll be monitoring the situation today and we’ll let you know as soon as we hear anything.

What do you think Addicts? Will Bowe be there? What about Poe?

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

ESPN insider Adam Schefter has a very grim prediction for Chiefs fans.

He doesn’t think Dwayne Bowe will report to camp with his teammates this week.

Schefter said in an interview with Josh Vernier of 610 Sports Radio in Kansas City that he thinks Bowe is going to continue holding out well into training camp.

Schefter tells ushe assumes Dwayne Bowe won’t report til camp until the week of the first game. #Chiefs

— Josh Vernier (@JoshVernier) July 24, 2012

Keep in mind that this isn’t a report from Schefter. It is an assumption which is very different.

But it is also a very specific assumption which is obviously going to stir the pot.

Bowe told Joel Thorman of Arrowhead Pride that he would be in camp on time this year. While he could possibly have changed his mind, words from Bowe himself still carry more weight in my mind than guesses from Adam Schefter.

The fact of the matter is that it does Bowe absolutely no good not to show up to camp on time. He is playing the 2012 season under the franchise tag no matter what. All sitting out at camp would do is stick it to the Chiefs and hurt Bowe’s performance on the field. Considering he is looking for a big deal, it wouldn’t make sense for Bowe to sabotage himself just to prove a point to the Chiefs.

I think this is just Schefter providing a bad guess.

Regardless, we’ll find out on Friday when the Chiefs hit the practice field.

What do you think ,Addicts? Is Schefter full of it or does he know something we don’t? If he doesn’t know something, why isn’t he reporting it officially?

Last week hope remained that Bowe would be offered a multi-year contract before Monday’s deadline, and I took upon myself to answer a few questions regarding NFL contracts and the salary cap that may have been on fans’ minds.

This week we know that Bowe and the Chiefs didn’t reach a multi-year deal. In the wake of this news it’s apparent that pretty much every fan knows that Bowe has the option to sit out the year or sign a contract to play the 2012 season, but there are a few questions/misunderstandings on the finer points that have cropped up in discussions across the web that could use some clarifying.

If Bowe opts to sit out this year, will he be penalized?

It depends on how you define “penalized.” The Exclusive Franchise Player tag means he can only sign a deal with the Chiefs to play this season*; however, it does not mean he is under contract. Not being under contract, Bowe should expect that by not playing football he won’t earn a paycheck, and probably doesn’t view it so much as a penalty as it is a necessary evil if he decides not to play. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play this season before the first regular season game, he’ll be due the entire sum of $9.5 million. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play after the first regular season game, the $9.5 million figure will be reduced proportionately. At no point would Bowe be expected to give up more than the amount of the franchise tender. So if you want to call it a penalty, just be aware that it’s more of a passive penalty than a proactive penalty. Basically, full play = full pay, partial play = partial pay & no play = no pay (there is no no play = no pay + additional penalties). Personally, refusing to give something to someone who has yet to earn it isn’t really a penalty in my book.

* The CBA expressly forbids the assignment or transferring of this exclusive negotiating right to another team**.

** Yes, this means that the rumor that Bowe was on the trading block during the Draft back in April is totally baseless, as Pioli and the FO would certainly have known that he couldn’t be traded.

If Bowe sits out the season, can he be franchised next year?

Yes. However, the CBA requires that such a tag be a Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag. Under such a tag, Bowe would be free to negotiate a deal with other teams, but the Chiefs would maintain a Right to First Refusal. In this scenario, if the Chiefs would elect to not match the other team’s offer they would have the right to be compensated with a first-round draft pick and a third-round draft pick in the upcoming draft.

What happens to the salary cap if Bowe decides to sit out the full season?

If by 3 p.m. (CST) on the first Tuesday after Week 10 of the regular season arrives, and Bowe is still not under contract, two things happen:

1)  Bowe will be prohibited from playing football for the remainder of the League year.

2)  The entire $9.5 million currently earmarked for Bowe through the franchise tag will be released back into the team’s available funds.

So, if Bowe doesn’t play this year, he doesn’t get any money, but the team doesn’t lose its money either (they’d get it back and could roll it over into next year’s cap if they so choose).

What can happen with the franchise tag if Bowe does play this season?

There would be no restrictions on the type of franchise tag (Exclusive Player or Non-Exclusive Player) that the Chiefs could use if Bowe plays under the tag this season. In this scenario, if the Chiefs extend Bowe the Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag and another team makes Bowe an offer the Chiefs don’t want to match, draft pick compensation would come to the tune of two first-round draft picks in the upcoming Draft.

The argument can be made, and I’m making it now, that if Baldwin, Breaston & Co. show enough progression to make Pioli comfortable with risking the loss of Bowe altogether, this may mean very great things for the future of our franchise. Yeah, we’d lose perhaps one of our greatest receivers in franchise history, but we’d be gaining much more ammunition for making a move towards one of the greater QBs coming out in the draft, and we wouldn’t quite be “trading the farm” like the ‘Skins did this year for RGIII. That’s a temptation that absolutely has to be considered, and I don’t think we should blame Pioli one bit for taking it into account (which I’m sure he has).

Are multi-year negotiations totally off the table until free agency begins next offseason?

No. Though it is off the table for the time being, the CBA allows negotiations for a multi-year contract to resume following the team’s final game of the regular season. So even if the franchise tag is unavailable for use on Bowe next year (i.e. if it’s being used on another player such as Albert or Dorsey) given the length of time between the playoffs and when free agency begins, Bowe and the Chiefs will have about two months to work out a long-term deal before other teams could begin negotiating with Bowe.

_____________

All-in-all, it looks like not signing Bowe to a long-term deal now is not the end of the world. In fact, between the compensatory picks we could potentially gain by letting Bowe go through a Non-Exclusive Franchise tag next season, and the compensatory picks we’ll get for the FA losses we incurred this season (Carr, Orton and the like), we’re looking at the possibility of having a MASSIVE draft next season, and I’m almost already salivating at the thought of what that could mean. We’re on the brink of greatness, Addicts, and one way or another Bowe will be a key component in how we get there: be it as a Chief, or a bargaining chip.

Ok, yes. As some of you may remember, a couple of months ago I posted a piece called “The Top 5 Stories You’ll Be Sick Of By August” and included among them was whether or not Bowe would get an extended deal before preseason. But, since we know that final decision today, there was no way around commenting on it.

The deadline for Bowe to sign a long-term deal has now passed. Unless the Chiefs are holding off on making an announcement, Bowe will be signing the one-year franchise tag and this is the best-case scenario for the team.

Although the signing indicates that there will be no more negotiations on extending Bowe this season, it also makes perfect sense for a number of reasons.

1.) The Chiefs Hold All the Cards

First and foremost, from a business perspective, one simple rule is that you don’t guarantee money deep into the future unless you have to – we’re not the Oakland freakin’ Raiders. Currently, the Chiefs hold all the cards and cannot be pressured to deal. Although we don’t yet know what Bowe is asking, unless it is an amazingly humble offer, the Chiefs have every reason to walk away from it. Although the Chiefs desperately need Bowe’s production on the field, they know that Bowe can’t afford to hold out into the season if he has any hopes of a big free agency payday. Bowe hasn’t totally shaken his reputation as a troublemaker with a bit of a freelancing streak. If Todd Haley did one good thing for this team, it was reining in Bowe’s ego, but if Dwayne starts going all Ochocinco on the Chiefs, his value will plummet. Obviously, the Chiefs know this.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

To get the generous, long-term deal he wants, the best thing that Bowe can do for himself in 2012 is by having the best, most drama-free season of his career. As it happens, that exactly what the Chiefs want out of him too, and they figure it’s best to keep the carrot hanging in front of him. Even if Bowe were to hold out, the Chiefs are stacked enough offensively to be able to handle his absence for a while. Charles and Moeaki are back and Baldwin will have a full offseason to prepare this season. He has similar physical characteristics to Bowe, and could try to play his role in the offense in a pinch.

2.) This Gives the Chiefs More Time to Evaluate Baldwin

As mentioned above, Jon Baldwin has the potential to fill in for Bowe, but so far he has shown very little to indicate he is ready. He made a few beautiful catches throughout the season, but he was nowhere to be found in most games, finishing with just 21 receptions in 2011. However, as many noted, the silver lining of Bowe’s absence at voluntary workouts was that Baldwin was getting lots of experience as the starter. Of course, we have no idea if he’s actually doing anything right at these practices, as this is the part of the offseason with the least transparency and the most hyperbolic positivity. I’ve heard he is working hard, studying hard and showing heart on the field, but, then again, what do you expect them to say?

If Baldwin really comes on this season, it gives the Chiefs even more leverage with Bowe – particularly if Devon Wylie shows something and we get consistent production out of Steve Breaston. Again, we don’t yet know what Bowe is asking, but I imagine it is more than the $9.515 million he is making with the franchise tag this year. The always-insightful Cordell of The Film Room tweeted out today, “Matt Cassel and Flowers new deals paid out nearly 15 mil each in first year…I can see Bowe thinking he is at or above that level.” If that is the case, then the Chiefs will be saving money this year and maybe even next year.

Next year, Bowe’s franchise number would be $11.418 million, which is still less than he would make in the first year of a long-term deal – big first-year bonuses are pro forma with these sorts of things. We should re-franchise Bowe if Baldwin improves, but it is clear that Bowe will remain the starter. If they think that JB can transition into the starter in 2013, then it makes sense to rent Bowe for just one more year. If it looks like Baldwin will remain a complementary piece, then we pay Bowe long-term.

Mandatory Credit: John O

Either way, we still have Breaston for four more years on a relatively cheap deal with only $9.5 million in total guarantees, Baldwin costs us about $7.5 million per year and Devon Wylie, if he is all that he is made out to be, will be a steal for his $2.6 million over four years. This means that, despite the fact this is going to be a run-first team, the Chiefs can easily afford to re-sign Bowe without over-valuing the position group. His deal would likely even out such that we would be paying around $20 million annually for receivers overall. Given the growing importance of the passing game, that’s not too bad. By the way, the Chiefs are currently $16.548 million under the cap.

In short, don’t panic.

Bowe’s not going anywhere unless the Chiefs are prepared to part with him, and we can afford to lock him up long-term without breaking the bank. Pioli played this one smart.

Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

It’s now or next offseason for Dwayne Bowe and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The deadline for franchise players to establish a long-term deal with their teams is today at 4 p.m. Eastern. That means if the Chiefs and Bowe can not reach an agreement, Bowe will have to play the 2012 season under the franchise tender the Chiefs extended him before the start of free agency. The one-year deal will pay Bowe just over $9 million for the season.

We told you three days ago that the reports from NFL insiders Jason La Canfora and Adam Schefter are indicating that the Chiefs and Bowe are not close and are not likely to get a deal done.

Bowe is a talented player and while I am sure most Chiefs fans would like to see him locked up for the remainder of his prime, if a deal doesn’t get done there really isn’t any reason to panic. Unless Bowe intends to sit out the entire season, which he has already said he has no intention of doing, then the Chiefs will have their #1 receiver in 2012.

Playing under a one-year deal is usually a good thing for the players. It give them extra incentive to perform at a high level so they can earn a high contract once they finally do hit the market. The Chiefs have a stacked roster that should enable Bowe to do his best work yet as a Chief, which could mean a second AFC West Championship for the Cassel-Bowe connection.

Whether or not this is Bowe’s last season in KC remains to be seen. Should he have a monster year, the move to have Bowe on the franchise tag this year could come back to bite the Chiefs, as the receiver’s asking price could go even higher next offseason.

If I were a betting man, I’d say Scott Pioli is hoping that Jonathan Baldwin emerges as a top threat this season, giving the Chiefs the option of allowing Bowe to walk. Pioli invested heavily in the wide receiver position this offseason, drafting Devon Wylie and Junior Hemingway. Should one or both of those players develop with Baldwin in 2012, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bowe depart in 2013.

What do you think, Addicts? Is Pioli playing it smart or cheap?

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

The deadline for franchise players to reach a long-term agreement with their teams is Monday but if Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports is to be believed, the Chiefs and WR Dwayne Bowe are unlikely to reach a deal.

From La Canfora:

Talks with the Chiefs and receiver Dwayne Bowe have gone nowhere, really, according to sources, and there doesn’t appear to be much impetus to securing a longer deal now.

Darn.

If  Bowe isn’t inked by the Monday deadline then he has to play the 2012 season under the franchise tender. The two sides would then have to try again next offseason. The Chiefs would have the option to use the franchise tag on Bowe again if they like but that would be a lot of money to pay one guy for two years. Besides, the Chiefs may want to use the tag on other free agents-to-be, like Glenn Dorsey or Branden Albert.

Bowe has gone on the record as saying that he will be in training camp one way or the other so unless he decides to take a page out of the Drew Brees playbook, he’ll be on the field for the Chiefs this season.

Bowe is 27 now and will turn 28 in September. If the Chiefs want to lock him up through his prime, they’re going to have to pony up now or later.  Unfortunately, with negotiations so quiet, there is no news on whether the Chiefs are being cheap or if Bowe is asking for more than he’s worth.

What do you think Addicts? Is 2012 Bowe’s last year in KC?

(h/t Arrowhead Pride)

With the clock ticking closer to the franchise tag deadline, I figured I would take this opportunity to address a few aspects that most fans [read: people who don’t get paid for it] may find themselves wondering about these two.

Don’t all teams have the same salary cap?

Yes and no. The league sets a salary cap at the beginning of the league year (usually in late April/early March before free agency begins). This cap is for the season following the offseason and may be greater or lesser than the previous season’s salary cap (rarely is it exactly the same). This year’s salary cap is $120.6 million. Salary caps differ when teams conduct their business in certain ways, whether for better or worse. The new CBA allows for unused salary cap money to rollover between years. So teams may find themselves with more cap space than the league determined salary cap. Inversely, if a team violates any league rules or standards, their salary cap may be lessened for punitive reasons*. In both cases, teams wind up with what is referred to as their own “adjusted salary cap.”

*This most recently occurred with DAL and WAS for allocating large salary/bonus sums into the uncapped 2011 season. As penalty, these teams’ salary caps were artificially lowered for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and has-been/will-be distributed amongst 28 teams. Why 28? OAK & NO conducted their business in a similar manner but to a lesser extent, so rather than proactively punishing these two teams by removing cap space, the League passively punished them by just not including them in the redistribution process.

Who keeps track of adjusted salary caps?

A teams’ management is acutely aware of their cap number; however, the NFL must approve all contracts and bonuses and will reject any such deals that would exceed a team’s adjusted salary cap.

Do only player wages count towards the salary cap?

Yes. Wages paid to coaches, trainers, club staff, etc. do not apply towards the salary cap.

What “player wages” count towards the salary cap?

Simply speaking, wages include the player’s base salary, signing bonus, roster bonuses and any other bonuses or incentives.

What’s a player’s base salary?

It is what it sounds like. A base salary is determined in the negotiation process, and the salary is remitted to the player either weekly or bi-weekly (in equal portions) over the course of the NFL regular season. [Ex: A player has a base salary of $1.7 million and is paid weekly. The regular season consists of 17 weeks; so, the player would receive $100,000 in base salary each week of the regular season.]

There’s a lot of talk about signing bonuses: How do they work?

A signing bonus is at it sounds: a bonus earned by a player for signing a new contract or extension. The player receives the entire sum upfront, but the team may prorate the total over the course of up to five seasons, meaning that, for example, a $10 million signing bonus may be evenly distributed over five seasons so that the team’s salary cap only takes a hit of $2 million per season. Signing bonuses are guaranteed, meaning that if a player is traded or retires after receiving the bonus, the prorated costs stick around* (in talking salary caps, this is what is referred to as “dead money” as the team still has to pay towards a service they are no longer getting).

* A team may file a grievance if they give a player a huge signing bonus and he retires shortly thereafter without good reason. It’s called the “Barry Sanders Rule”, so guess who pulled that stunt?

What about roster bonuses?

Another common bonus, the roster bonus is earned if/when a player makes the 53-man roster in the regular season during the year in which the roster bonus is worked into a contract. The entire roster bonus affects the team’s salary cap for the season it is earned in and may not be spread over the course of several years such as the salary cap.

What other bonuses are there?

Other bonuses may include option bonuses and incentive bonuses. As these are slightly more complex and tougher to explain, and as we’re making “molehills” here, we’ll spare that discussion for another time.

Now, how does this relate to the Chiefs and Bowe?

The Chiefs reportedly have a little over $16.5 million remaining in their cap space. Though he hasn’t signed the tender, the $9.5 million offered to Bowe through the franchise tag has already been counted against the Chiefs’ cap space because it is money that has already been committed to a player (even though the player it’s committed to hasn’t officially accepted the offer yet). If Bowe does not sign a new deal and just signs the tender, the Chiefs’ reported cap of $16.5 million will not be affected. In simpler terms, the $9.5 million offered to Bowe in the form of a franchise tag is considered already spent and is not counted in the $16.5 million that the team reportedly has freely available. So, in theory, if the Chiefs offer Bowe a deal that he’ll accept, part of that deal could allow Bowe to be given as much money for the 2012 season as to cause a $24 million cap hit* for 2012 and it’d be permissible by the NFL for them to do so. It’d be crazy for them to do so (Fitz and Megatron don’t even cause that large of a hit in any given year), but the money’s there.

* Note: Poe remains unsigned… we can intelligently guess he’ll get the rookie minimum of $390,000 in base salary, like the other first-rounders who have been signed thus far, but we’re not sure what he’ll get in terms of signing bonus. Also this time of year, only the highest paid 51 players on the team count towards the cap… eventually the last two to make the 53 man roster will have to have their wages taken into consideration. A good rule of thumb here would be to deduce at least $2 million to cover these things. So, $16.5 million + $9.5 million – $2 million = $24 million.

So, Addicts, knowing what you know now, how do you think Pioli should approach the situation? How much money should Bowe be offered in a new contract, and how much should be counted against this season’s cap specifically? Keep in mind unused cap can be rolled over into next season, and we may have great use for it then, too *cough*QB*cough*.

So, after Paddy put together a great piece on the crucial offseason question: “If Chiefs Were Characters from the Wire,” I felt it necessary to move this important thought-experiment beyond the realist, Dickensian epic about the failures of city institutions to the world of fantasy. If there are any of you out there who still haven’t gotten hooked on Game of Thrones, get on it (but watch the first two episodes before passing judgment; the first one is a bit scatter-brained).

Furthermore, if you aren’t acquainted with the show, STOP READING THIS NOW, this is going to be chalk-full of spoilers.

Tamba Hali as Sandor Clegane, “The Hound”

"I smell Philip Rivers."

Tamba Hali is a big, scary, not-particularly-pretty man. He has been loyal to the Chiefs through leadership changes, which have included a variety of eccentric characters on the throne. Although he terrifies everyone around him, everyone that serves at his side realizes he is a man of honor who lives to massacre quarterbacks – just don’t get fire anywhere near him or he’ll go all Frankenstein on you.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Todd Haley as Joffry Baratheon

"We shall go forth on 4th down a 4th time!"

Egotistical, sadistic, deluded and an awful tactician when it counts. On the plus side, um … cool crossbow?

David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Cassel as Daenerys Targaryen

"You're not just going to throw out my appendix after the surgery, right? Whew, what a waste that would have been."

Essentially sold in a marriage-trade that was meant to allow the Chiefs to reconquer Westeros, Cassel spent 2009 powerless, being repeatedly raped behind a horrid offensive line with no friends or allies to throw to. But, after facing down trials and tribulations, Cassel grew in strength and confidence, giving birth to dragons and … breaking his hand and watching his division rival ride out his team to the lost year’s best victories … this metaphor needs some work.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Casey Wiegmann as Ser Rodrik Cassel (absolutely no relation to Matt Cassel)

"Roadkill is the new black."

Old, wizened and dependable. If it wouldn’t have gotten in the way for Casey’s gameplay, these two men would have undoubtedly shared the same hairstyle as they held down the fort defending the House of Stark. However, despite their reliability, at some point, it was time for some young gun to behead them both.

Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

Jon McGraw as Tywin Lannister

"I just one deep back safetied your mom."

Although respected and decorated, these veterans have been outfoxed by younger, faster competition. However, with the game on the line, these old hands know how to pull out a victory.

Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Dwayne Bowe as Bronn

"Right back at you Cassel. No, I don't think I'm going to aim for your 'general vicinity' with this one."

Not everyone likes him, his style or his attitude. But, everyone agrees, this man is damn effective at what he does.

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Scott Pioli as Petyr Baelish “Little Finger”

"As a matter of fact, yes, I do run a whore house."

The ultimate man behind the curtain, Pioli has used his suspicious seduction and mischief to build a winning team in record time. Everyone has to watch their back around this man.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Dontari Poe as Gregor Clegane, “The Mountain”

"Ok, yes. I may have eaten one or two practice squad kickers. But, if you don't want me to eat special teamers, why do you leave them lying around all the time?!"

He is big, strong and furious. He can behead a horse with a single blow, and yet we’ve seen him do little more than lose jousts to effeminate challengers and guard a burnt-out prison camp. Will his amazing strength and power actually come to use on the battlefield?

Douglas Jones-US PRESSWIRE

Romeo Crennel as Tyrion Lannister

Seriously, why has no one made a similar mural for Crennel yet?

A master strategist with a heart of gold. While he has rarely gotten credit for his work, Crennel has been an essential part of the family and saved it from total destruction at the end of the season.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Chan Gailey as Balon Greyjoy

"I left potato salad in the workroom fridge. I will take back what is mine."

What, you don’t see the resemblance? Aside from that, these two are bitter men who live in their cold miserable bitterness in the North, waiting to strike back revenge in Week 2.

Robert Mayer-US PRESSWIRE

Derrick Johnson as Khal Drogo

"My helmet protects you."

The Horse King will hurt you, and he will do it in the most badass way available to him. But, please, Chiefs medical personnel, do not resort to black magic to cure his infections.

Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Barry Richardson as Samwell Tarly

"Time for my signature move -- Contagious Incompetence!"

Fat, whiney and utterly useless. I hope the White Walkers got ‘im at the end of last season.

Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

Hello, loyal Chiefs fans. As we sit and watch the minutes slowly tick away while we await the start of training camp, I’ve once again been racking my brain to try and think of something interesting to talk about. With little to no new information coming out of Arrowhead this month the only way to make this interesting is to get you, the reader, involved. Your original and varied outlooks on different topics make for a much more interesting Chiefs discussion than just reading something I came up with. So here’s what I decided to do. This week’s post is the first of a three-part series called “If You Ran The Chiefs.” For the next three weeks I want your feedback on what you would do if you were in charge of our beloved team.

This week we’ll tackle the Dwayne Bowe contract situation.

Next week we’ll take on what the Chiefs should do (long-term) with former first round picks Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Finally, in two weeks we’ll get your opinion on what the Chiefs should do at the quarterback position.

Okay, let’s talk D-Bowe.

Before I give you some options for what you would do with Bowe going forward, let’s make sure we get a fair picture of who Dwayne Bowe is as a WR. In his five seasons in the NFL he has averaged the following per season:

71 receptions
985 yards
13.8 yards/reception
7 TDs

Now, those numbers are hampered by the 2009 season where he missed games because of a suspension for PEDs. If you take out 2009 the averages become:

77 receptions
1,085 yards
14 yards/reception
8 TDs

Last season Bowe ranked 10th in the NFL in receptions, 13th in yards, and 45th in TDs. The year before he finished ranked 19th in receptions, 7th in yards, and 1st in TDs.

The other stat you have to figure in with Bowe is dropped passes. According to the always amazing stat gurus at Pro Football Focus, last season Bowe was 6th in the NFL in dropped passes among WRs with 10. In fact, according to this article at Pro Football Focus, between the years of 2008 and 2010 Bowe had the second highest percentage of dropped passes in the NFL at 13.87 percent (behind only Braylon Edwards). That means that over that three year time span, Bowe dropped almost 14 percent of the catchable passes thrown his way.

So bottom line, is Dwayne Bowe a big time WR talent? Yes, you don’t lead the NFL in TDs like Bowe did in 2010 (with 15) if you aren’t a supreme talent. However, you also have to admit that Bowe has some consistency issues. Between the dropped passes and a suspension for using an illegal substance to help him lose weight before the start of the 2009 season there are reasons to be cautious.

Now, nobody knows exactly what Dwayne Bowe is thinking in terms of his contract. He and his agent could certainly point at his receptions, yards, and TDs over the past two seasons and say that he deserves a contract in the same range that Vincent Jackson just got with TB (5 years, $55.5 million with $26 million fully guaranteed). Now, I don’t see Scott Pioli giving Bowe that much money. I also don’t see D-Bowe as the type to take less money than he could get on the open market in order to stay with a run first, small market team that has Matt Cassel as its QB. That is just my opinion though. And this isn’t about my opinion or even Pioli’s for that matter. Today, you are in charge.

So what would you do about Dwayne Bowe if you ran the Chiefs?

Here are the options as I see them:

1. Pay Dwayne Bowe whatever it takes to keep him long term.

If he wants Jackson money, give it to him. Our passing game would have been HORRIFIC without Bowe these past couple of seasons. The Chiefs simply can’t allow him to leave under any circumstances and we have the money to pay him.

2. Sign Bowe now if he’ll take a reasonable deal, otherwise make him play under the franchise tag and see what happens.

If Baldwin plays great then maybe you can afford to let him walk after this season, or if Baldwin looks good and Bowe just has an okay season then maybe you can re-sign Bowe at a discount. If Bowe plays great and Baldwin doesn’t look like a number one WR then you’ll probably have to tag Bowe again and then pay him mega dollars.

3. Play Bowe for one more year under the franchise tag and then let him walk.

Bowe is just too inconsistent to invest in a long-term contract. Get what you can out of him while he plays for a huge deal but let someone else be the one to gamble those millions on a knucklehead.

4. Sign Bowe to a long-term deal now and then trade him before his value drops.

I’ve heard several fans suggest this. The idea is that you sign Bowe to a contract now while KC can afford him and get another good year or two out of him and then trade him while his value is still high. This would be a very Patriot-esque type of move. The only danger here would be if Bowe dogs it after getting a big deal and torpedoes his trade value.

Now I’m sure there are other options or variations of these that you could come up with but I think those four options pretty well sum up most people’s opinion. I considered making this a poll, but I’d rather get people talking in the comments. So post which of these four options you would do with Bowe if you ran the Chiefs in the comments below with a short justification and we’ll see just how Chiefs Nation would handle the Bowe contract situation.

Come back next Monday for part two of the series when we’ll talk about what you would do with Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson if you ran the Chiefs.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Julie Scheidegger-US PRESSWIRE

One of the major stories of the offseason in kansas City has been the contract talks between star WR Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs.

The team offered Bowe the franchise tender which he has not yet signed. As a result, Bowe sat out all of the team’s offseason practices while he awaits a potential long-term deal.

According to a recent report from NFL.com, the feeling around the league is that the Chiefs and Bowe will eventually come to an agreement that will keep the former first-round pick in Kansas City for multiple seasons.

I caught this little nugget in a recent article by Steve Wyche about the salary cap.

“Deadlines tend to get things done and you’ll start seeing a lot of these franchise deals get worked out the first two weeks of July,” the salary cap official said.

The Saints have said they want to take care of Brees and the feeling around the league is that a long-term deal will be reached and all will be good. The same result is expected with Bowe in Kansas City.

I don’t think there was ever much of a question of Brees eventually getting inked but Chiefs fans have understandably been nervous about Bowe.

The team’s most consistent receiving threat over the last few seasons, Bowe has a couple incidents in his past that have led some to speculate that Chiefs GM Scott Pioli is hesitant to invents long-term bucks in Pro Bowl WR. The team has also added a number of wide receivers in the last couple of years, including first round pick Jon Baldwin a season ago. There have been some theories that Pioli will allow Bowe to play under the franchise tag in 2012. Should Baldwin emerge in his sophomore season, Bowe would be allowed to enter free agency.

While the NFL.com story is just speculation, it is still good to know that in league circles at least, the feeling is that Bowe and the Chiefs are genuinely trying for a long-term agreement.

Bowe and the Chiefs will have until July 15th to get a deal done. If they do not, Bowe will have to play the entire season under the franchise tag, which will cost the Chiefs a shade over $9 million.

With just under four weeks to go, a deal for Bowe could be coming soon.

Well, my fellow KC Chiefs fans, welcome to the football dead zone. The stretch between the NFL Draft and the start of training camp is probably the least exciting time to be a die-hard NFL fan and definitely the hardest time to be an NFL blogger. Yes there are some interesting tidbits coming out of OTAs, but until they actually put pads on and hit somebody, everything is pretty much just speculation.

So what can we do to try and get some good old-fashioned football debates going?

Well how about we play a new game called “Tell me I’m wrong!” It’s easy, I’ll make some predictions that I 100 percent believe about the upcoming season and you tell me when you think I’m wrong. Then I’ll respond to your comment and tell you why you’re wrong for thinking that I’m wrong. It will be great, trust me (hey, it’s the offseason, what else are we going to talk about?).

Ready to play?

Here we go……

1. Stanford Routt will lead KC in interceptions.

I don’t think Routt is a better player than either Brandon Flowers or Eric Berry. However, I do think he will be the most thrown at player in the Chiefs’ secondary. My guess is that Routt may not be as consistent as Brandon Carr was, but he will make more big plays. Carr was a great cover corner but he never was a big interception guy (he averaged just two per season over his four years in KC). I think Routt will probably give up more big plays than Carr did, but will help make up for it by coming up with more big plays. Teams will be tempted to test him both because he may give up an occasional big play and because of Flowers’ great coverage skills opposite him. Plus Routt will be lined up a lot against #2 WRs (as opposed to last season in Oakland when he had to cover the other team’s #1). Because of this, I think Routt will be good for about five interceptions this coming season.

Tell me I’m wrong!

2. Amon Gordon will play more snaps at 3-4 NT this season than either of the “Po(w)e Boys”.

When the Chiefs drafted Dontari Poe with the #11 pick, most national commentators stated that Romeo Crennel would plug Poe in at NT from day one. I haven’t ever believed that to be true. I’m not bashing Poe, or even bashing the pick, just the logic that he would walk right in and be the starting NT. The NT in the Chiefs 3-4 is all about technique and leverage. Those two things happen to be two of Poe’s weakest areas coming out of college. Do I think Romeo and defensive line coach Anthony Pleasant can teach Poe the technique needed to be a starting 3-4 NT? Yes. Will it happen in one offseason? Probably not. Poe has been running with the first team nickel package, but is way down the depth chart at NT (even Anthony Toribio has gotten snaps ahead of him). So that leaves KC with either Gordon or last year’s 6th round pick Jerrell Powe as the starting NT to begin the year. I know fans are enamored of Powe, but the Chiefs have shown no signs thus far that they share that infatuation. Gordon was active over Powe all of last season and when the Chiefs base defense took the field for the first time in OTAs it was Gordon that lined up at NT. In addition, Gordon also has the versatility to play the 3-4 DE spots. So if Dorsey or Jackson were to go down mid-game the Chiefs could slide Gordon over to DE and play Dontari at NT (since he will be active for sub packages). The same could not be said for Powe who hasn’t played at all at DE or in the sub package. I won’t be surprised if Dontari Poe is the starting NT by the end of the season, but I still believe that Amon Gordon will lead the team in snaps played at NT when the season comes to an end.

Tell me I’m wrong!

3. Undrafted FA Josh Bellamy will beat out seventh round draft pick Junior Hemingway for the final WR spot.

I stated before that there really isn’t much that you can take from OTAs other than speculation. I think Josh Bellamy may be an exception. In Romeo’s presser following the undrafted player tryouts, Bellamy was the first player he mentioned when talking about players that got his attention. Then in this OTA update by the Kansas City Star’s Adam Teicher it mentions that with Bowe holding out and Baldwin missing a practice, Bellamy got a few reps with the first string (with no mention of Hemingway). Finally, in this locker room interview, Josh Looney talks about how Bellamy has experience playing defensive back and how that defensive experience helps him to excel on special teams. If Bellamy has flashed more as a WR thus far AND has a leg up on Hemingway on ST (where the last WR will see most of their action) I think Bellamy may be the clear favorite at this point despite the fact that Hemingway was drafted and Bellamy was not.

Tell me I’m wrong!

4. Peyton Hillis will finish the year with 100 more touches than Jamaal Charles.

I love Jamaal Charles. I think he is the most talented player on the team. That having been said, he has a small frame for a NFL running back and is coming off major knee surgery. The Chiefs previously were careful with Charles’ workload and that was before his knee injury. When the season begins, I wouldn’t be surprised if Charles only averaged 8-12 touches per game until the Chiefs start to feel comfortable that he is full strength. If the Chiefs are a run first team that could leave a solid 15-20 touches for Hillis. Plus, Hillis has proven in the past that he is a good receiver out of the back field so the Chiefs don’t have to take him off the field in passing downs. If the Chiefs let an ineffective Thomas Jones have more carries than a healthy Charles; I can’t imagine they wouldn’t let a more effective Hillis carry the load while they slowly bring Charles back. Over the course of 16 games 100 touches would only be an average of 6.25 touches per game.

Tell me I’m wrong!

5. Jonathan Baldwin will play well enough this season that the Chiefs will let Dwayne Bowe walk in free agency next offseason.

Part of the “Patriot Way” has always been knowing when to let a player go. Whether it was cutting Lawyer Milloy, trading Richard Seymour, or releasing Randy Moss, the Patriots have never been afraid to move on. Dwayne Bowe is an incredibly talented player who has always had a bit of a reputation as a “knuckle head.” Bowe may be wanting a huge long-term deal like the one Vincent Jackson signed this offseason, but I just don’t see Pioli giving him that kind of money. Listen to Pioli talk about the scouting process they use on draft picks. He always talks about the players’ “make up” and how they will mentally handle the NFL life and having millions of dollars in their pocket. Ask yourself this, would Pioli have been comfortable drafting Dwayne Bowe out of college based on those criteria? I don’t think he would have. The only way I see him giving Bowe big money is if he thinks he has no choice. Enter Jon Baldwin. Baldwin was a first-round pick by Pioli. He missed time last year on top of having a shortened offseason. Already in OTAs he is getting noticed for highlight-reel, big play catches. If Baldwin can carry that over to the regular season and looks like a #1 caliber WR, that is bad news for those wanting Bowe to stay in KC long term. I’d love to see both Baldwin and Bowe in KC long term, but if KC remains a run-first team they simply don’t need two #1 WRs. I think Jon Baldwin will show himself to be that caliber of player this year and give Pioli the leverage to let Dwayne Bowe walk.

Tell me I’m wrong!

6. Matt Cassel will silence his critics (well, at least some of them) by having his best season in KC.

I already made my case for Matt Cassel in my piece last week. The basis of my argument is this: Every time Cassel has had a good run game and at least an average defense he has put up good results. I think he has a chance to have the best defense of his career this coming year and if Jamaal Charles is healthy then KC could very well lead the league in rushing again. Plus, if you look at Cassel’s WRs in 2010 when he put up good numbers and even made the Pro Bowl (as an alternate), they were horrible after Dwayne Bowe. The additions of Steve Breaston, Jon Baldwin, and even Devon Wylie should mean Cassel has a significantly better core of WRs than he did in 2010. Plus, no one can question Cassel’s work ethic and you know that in the face of all the criticism he’s faced he will do everything possible to prove his critics wrong. I believe everything is lining up for Cassel to have his best season in KC.

Tell me I’m wrong!

So there you go, Addicts, I’ve given you loads of ammo to fuel a good debate in the comments section. Surely one of these made you go, “No Way That Happens!!!!” So let me have it in the comments. I look forward to hearing about how wrong I am.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Dwayne Bowe is not expected to be present as the Kansas City Chiefs continue their OTA practices this week, though his situation could be resolved soon.

The Chiefs will hold four more OTA practices this week on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Friday’s practice will be the end of the voluntary portion of practices.

On Tuesday of next week the Chiefs will begin their mandatory three-day mini-camp. Once the camp ends, they will break until training camp begins in late July.

As for Bowe, next week’s camp is not mandatory for him because he is not currently under contract. The Chiefs hold his rights via the franchise tag rules but since he hasn’t signed the deal, he can’t be fined for not attending.

Bowe and the Chiefs have until July 15th to work out a long-term deal. If no deal is signed by that date, Bowe will either have to play the entire season under the franchise tag or not play at all. The only way he could become an outright free agent is if the Chiefs take the tag off the table, something they’ll never do.

Bowe has gone on the record as saying that he will definitely be in training camp and that he would like to show up even earlier. That likely all comes down to the contract negotiations between the Chiefs and Bowe’s camp. Bowe has no incentive to sign the tag before the July 15th deadline. He is trying to keep the pressure on the Chiefs to make a long-term deal worth signing. That would give Bowe security and the Chiefs would avoid spending over $9 million on him for just one season of play.

Bowe will be playing for the Chiefs this season so it would benefit everyone if the team could get him signed before next week’s mandatory mini-camp. This would enable Bowe to get his hands dirty in the team’s new offense so that he can hit the ground running once training camp begins.

For Bowe’s part, it doesn’t look like he’ll sign the tag until he absolutely has to.

The interesting aspect of all this is that Bowe’s strategy of sitting out the voluntary workouts could end up backfiring on him. If Jonathan Baldwin continues to impress in practice, the Chiefs could feel less pressure to ink Bowe, who has long been their only consistent receiving threat, to something long-term.

What do you think, Addicts? Will Bowe make it to next week’s mini-camp or will he remain on the sidelines until training camp?

It’s that time of year – the time of year when there’s not really much to talk about in football, but we’re all the more starved for content about it. This is the time of year when sports commentators, myself included, spout mostly hypothetical nonsense and rehash the same offseason moves over and over.

Lucky for the Chiefs, there are no big celebrity players on our squad, but that doesn’t mean we are not going to be bombarded by “news” pieces about Tebow’s new pair of shoes or Tony Romo’s Caribbean vacation. Speaking for myself, I’m also too young to care about the Hall of Fame and too much of a cynic to care much about NFL players’ personal charities and community outreach. They all do it, it’s all heart-warming and we never really find out if any actually does any good. Part of the quid pro quo between sports reporters and players is that the reporters will hype players’ charities in the offseason and whenever else possible, and those players give good anonymous trash talk about their fellow players and coaches (especially if the target is Mark Sanchez).

So, although the fact that you are reading this means that you, like me, are still going to be inhaling ever bit of Chiefs news this offseason regardless of how useless it is, I’m going to give you a primer for articles to avoid (including those written by me).

These are the top stories you’ll be plenty sick of by the time real football starts up again.

1.) Any story with a headline ending in a question mark.

As a journalist by trade, this has always been one of my pet peeves. Generally, any headline ending in a question mark is shorthand for “filler article.” If the central thesis of the piece is so flimsy to scrutiny that you can’t even write it without a typographic shrug, then why are you writing it in the first place?

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

2.) Can Matt Cassel take this team to greatness?

Will it rain October 13, 2017? No one knows. This, of course, is why the question never goes away. Every Chiefs fan knows the score. Cassel has given us one and a half bad seasons, one good season and performed well for another team that was probably the best in the league at the time. The overall roster around Cassel is better this year. Everyone knows this is Cassel’s make or break season in KC.

But, Cassel is also well-respected in the locker room, which means that unless he undergoes a major personality change or a sudden and inexplicable drop in his athletic ability this summer, we are going to hear nothing but positive reviews about him coming out of Arrowhead. Therefore, we will have no more real evidence in this discussion until preseason begins in August. Lyle put together a great historical comparison of Cassel to other quarterbacks in similar situations, which makes the most positive fact-based case I’ve seen for Cassel thus far. But, even then, it relies on how other players performed. Every player is different. And, given how the goings-on at Arrowhead are more guarded than nuclear secrets, my bet is we will learn exactly zilch about Cassel’s ability in the next 16 weeks.

3.) Will Charles and Moeaki bounce back from injuries?

Will it rain October 14, 2017? This is also a subject on which we are likely to hear nothing but manically positive news until the preseason begins (which they likely won’t play in anyway). Coaches, agents and the players themselves are never going to come out and say, “Yeah, I’m really behind schedule on my recovery,” or “Yeah, I definitely don’t have professional speed anymore.”

There are only three things we need concern ourselves with on this subject – 1.) Neither have shown lasting or degrading effects from previous injuries 2.) Because they were injured so early last year, they are well within the recovery times for ACL tears to be able to come back full strength by opening day and 3.) This time around at least, we have the depth at their positions to overcome their absence.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

4.) Will Dontari Poe live up to his physical potential?

Ask me in three years. Seriously. This guy is a major project, and unless he learns his position in record time and stuns the pants off the coaches, he will probably be a rotational player throughout the 2012 season. As much as we have all whined about the success rate of Chiefs first-round DTs, Glenn Dorsey has quietly developed into a top run stuffer and Tyson Jackson has shown the willingness to trim his salary down to something more accurately representing his production. Thanks to the CBA, Poe’s contract won’t kill us at least, and if he is among the 50 percent of first-round-picks that bust, we will march on.

There is only one thing we can be certain about with Dontari Poe – we won’t know how good he is this year, and probably not next year either. Even if he has a great season, he’ll likely regress or at least face a sophomore slump.

Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

5.) Will Bowe get extended?

This is the only one of the five above that I think is actually a legitimate discussion to be had. If Bowe wants Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson money, do we keep him? We’re paying him less than $10 million this year with the franchise tag, but if he wants a long-term deal with an annual salary in the teens, then the decision is less obvious. At the same time, don’t expect this to get done until midway through the season at the earliest. The two biggest factors in whether or not Bowe gets a deal are going to be the offense’s overall production with or without him, and the development of Jonathan Baldwin. If Baldwin has a breakout season and shows the ability of being a #1 receiver (which I think is highly unlikely, this season anyway) then I bet Pioli allows Bowe to test the market. If the Chiefs are tearing up the league and appear playoff-bound halfway through the year, the front office might feel like it makes sense to try and lock up Bowe early, because his value will only increase once he’s making clutch catches in post-season games.

Still, with so many variables and the fact that Bowe has already said that he will not hold out through training camp, this question is both unanswerable and somewhat irrelevant at this point. However, that does not mean we won’t be hearing about it. We are going to hear a lot about Bowe and the contract negotiations in the coming months but I’ll eat a shoe if they actually sign anything before the season begins. Mark my words.

So, that’s what I anticipate I’ll be sick of hearing about by the time we actually see some football played. Am I missing anything?

Tim Fuller-US PRESSWIRE

Dwayne Bowe may not have signed his franchise tag yet but according to a recent interview, he’ll be to training camp on time.

My buddy Joel Thorman had a chance to speak with Bowe the other day and he asked him point blank whether he’d be in training camp or not. Bowe didn’t hesitate.

“I’ll be there,” said Bowe. “I’m staying in shape until its the time to sign on the dotted line. You got the draft, they got to move stuff around, fill all the other positions and make sure the team is solid before you do it and that’s OK with me.”

That is good news for Chiefs fans who may be getting a little bit nervous about Bowe’s absence at the team’s voluntary workouts.

I would be surprised if the Chiefs don’t ink Bowe to a long-term deal before the July deadline. If the Chiefs don’t give Bowe a long-term deal, he’ll play the whole season under the franchise tag which will pay him over $9 million for one season. It would make much more sense for Scott Pioli to work something out. Besides, Bowe is still the team’s best receiver and thinks will likely stay that way for a while. The only receiver on the roster who has the ability to challenge Bowe for the #1 receiver job is Jonathan Baldwin and thus far he remains a question mark.

Check out Joel’s full interview with Bowe over at Arrowhead Pride.

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

Bill Williamson of ESPN.com’s AFC West blog has been ranking the various positions in the AFC West (this is what happens in the offseason) and he thinks Dwayne Bowe is currently the division’s best wide receiver.

Here is what Williamson had to say:

1. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City: With Jackson gone, Bowe, who received the franchise tag by the Chiefs this offseason, is the clear top receiver in the division.

I can get behind that. Looking over the list, Williamson is right. Without Jackson, there really isn’t even a conversation to be had over who is the best. I mean, Chargers WR Malcom Floyd came in at #2.

As for the rest of KC’s receivers, Jonathan Baldwin came in at #8, mostly on potential. Steve Breaston was, in my opinion, was underrated at #11.

You can see the whole list at ESPN.com.

Dwayne Bowe was given the franchise tender by the Kansas City Chiefs for the 2012 season but the former first round pick is sitting out of the team’s voluntary offseason workouts in hopes of landing a long-term deal.

While most fans see Bowe staying home as a negative, in the end, it could end up having a positive effect on the team’s other young receivers, chief among them Jonathan Baldwin.

Baldwin was playing behind the eight ball throughout the 2011 season. The NFL lockout robbed the rookie of a true offseason program in the pros and Thomas “Locker Room Leadership” Jones, robbed him of the first half of his season. Baldwin barely got to spend any time with QB Matt Cassel before he was forced to catch passes from someone named Tyler Palko. By the time the 2011 season was over, Baldwin had missed the offseason, half the regular season and he’d played with three QBs and two head coaches.

Hardly the ideal environment for rookie development at WR.

2012 represents a fresh start for Baldwin and the the entire Chiefs organization. Jones is gone. Todd Haley is gone. Barry Richardson is gone, which means Baldwin may actually be able to finish running his routes this season before Matt Cassel gets sacked.

The Chiefs have a new offensive coordinator in Brian Daboll and while it would be great to have Bowe working out as the team learns a new offense, the extra reps that will go to Baldwin are more valuable. Bowe will likely show up when he has to and he probably won’t have too much trouble getting up to speed. Bowe has played with Matt Cassel for three years and in the end, routes are routes. Presumably he has the playbook. Training camp will be plenty of time.

For now, while the players are just running around in shorts and t-shirts, the extra snaps for Baldwin, who might otherwise find himself watching while Bowe and #2 WR Steve Beaston work, should be helpful.

“Right now it’s early, and with OTAs, especially with JB, he’s going to develop,” Breaston said in an article on KCChiefs.com. “He’s going to have this offseason to develop. JB is raw, but JB is athletic and he can make plays. That’s why he’s here.

“When the offseason goes on and he gets the reps that he may not have had before because Dwayne isn’t here, he’s going to develop and he’s going to be a lot better of a receiver.”

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Dwayne Bowe has yet to sign his franchise tender and is not attending the voluntary offseason workouts.

Get your torches and pitchforks!

It doesn’t matter who you want to intimidate. There are two mobs about to depart. One is on its way to Arrowhead Stadium to bang on the front doors and call for GM Scott Pioli’s head. Someone might even climb the statue of Lamar Hunt so they can get a better view to toss eggs at the stadium. Pioli’s a bum, just sitting up in his office on top of Clark Hunt’s wallet.

The other mob is on a mission to find Dwayne Bowe. They’re armed with judgements and diet pills. They’ll make sure Bowe knows just what a selfish, non-team player he is. They’re also absolutely convinced that he’s doing nothing but eating cartons of ice cream and that the only football he is playing is on his Xbox360. To top it all off, he’s playing as the Raiders!

The mobs aren’t currently particularly large but have no fear, they will grow. If we’re to believe the Kansas City Star, Steve Breaston may have to step up and be the #1 receiver in Kansas City this year. Bowe might sit the entire season!

Breaston may have to take the lead this year for the Chiefs. Bowe, as the franchise player, is unsigned and not with the Chiefs as they go through their offseason conditioning program.

Bowe has plenty of time to sign a contract and rejoin the Chiefs, but until he does, there’s a chance he won’t play next season. If he doesn’t, Breaston becomes the No. 1 wide receiver.

What The Star is saying is possible but highly unlikely.

Bowe has $9 million reasons to play this season.

This isn’t like when Vincent Jackson sat out in San Diego in 2010. Jackson was tendered as a restricted free agent and was due to be paid just over $3 million. Bowe is getting the franchise tag that is worth more than $9 million.

So why doesn’t Bowe just sign his tender?

Because it doesn’t make any sense for him to do so.

Bowe wants a long-term contract. It does him absolutely no good to sign his tender now because it will lose him all leverage in contract negotiations with the Chiefs. The team has until July to work out a deal with Bowe. If they do not, he’ll play the whole season under the franchise tag if/when he signs it.

For the Chiefs, there is no reason for Scott Pioli to rush into a long-term deal with Bowe just so they can hurry him in to lift some weights. Scott Pioli isn’t going to sign Bowe to a ridiculous contract that is going to put the Chiefs in salary cap hot water down the line. Remember, KC has a young, talented roster. Those young, talented players are going to soon be growing up into expensive veterans in their prime. Bowe is a very good receiver but teams demonstrate all the time how foolish it is to blow too much money on a player that isn’t a QB.

The NFL is a business and for a GM, a balancing act. While I’m sure Pioli wants to get Bowe locked up to a fair deal, he has the money to pay Bowe $9 million this year if he has to. Should Jonathan Baldwin develop this season, Pioli won’t have to over-spend on Bowe after next season. If Baldwin doesn’t develop, Pioli’s hand will be forced and he’ll likely need to pony up to keep Bowe.

For Bowe, the safer route is to accept the reasonable long-term deal the Chiefs will likely offer sometime this summer. This will give him security in case of injury. Sure, the $9 million this year will be great but it won’t be as good as $10 or $30 million over the course of a few years.

In the end, Bowe will likely have to decide whether or not to roll the dice and play under the tag or agree to a long-term deal. He has already gone on the record as saying that he isn’t upset he received the franchise tag and that he understands the business side of the NFL. As such, Bowe is playing the game, just like Wes Welker, another franchise tag recipient, is playing in New England.

When it is all said an done, however, both Bowe and Welker will likely show up for training camp, either under the tag or under new deals.

Bowe will almost certainly play in 2012. So keep the pitchforks in the barn for now. You probably won’t need them until next offseason and depending on the development of Jonathan Baldwin, you may not need them at all.

Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

We had the pleasure of attending Nike’s unveiling of the new NFL jerseys today in New York City. While the uniforms were mostly the same in terms of their actual look, there were a lot of changes to the material and feel of the jerseys. There are some other technical upgrades that make the uniforms more comfortable for the players such as water-proof material and flywire on the shoes that better protects the players.

We had a chance to talk briefly with Chiefs star WR Dwayne Bowe. He spoke a bit about the new uniforms, his thoughts on the additions of Kevin Boss and Peyton Hillis and he even added a special message to the readers of Arrowhead Addict.

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

As expected, the Kansas City Chiefs have used the franchise tag on WR Dawayne Bowe.

This is good news for the Kansas City offense, which struggled last season without Jamaal Charles and QB Matt Cassel. Bowe was one of the lone bright spots on offense. He put up very similar numbers in terms of yards in 2011 as he did in 2010. His TD’s were down and his average yards per catch dropped a bit but that can largely be attributed to a combination of things, including Tyler Palko, Todd “Crazy Train” Haley and the loss of Charles.

With a hopefully solidified QB situation in 2012 and a full offseason of work with Jonathan Baldwin, Tony Moeaki, Steve Breaston and Dexter McCluster, Bowe should be able to return to his Pro Bowl form.

The Chiefs and Bowe will likely continue to work on hammering out a long-term deal but for now, the Chiefs can relax knowing that their best receiver is locked up for 2012.

This also means that CB Brandon Carr is likely to depart in free agency. The Chiefs have until March 13 to reach a deal with Carr.

Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

According to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com, the Kansas City Chiefs will use the franchise tag on WR Dwayne Bowe if the two sides can not reach a deal.

Under the tag, Bowe would receiver a one-year deal worth $9.5 million. He had 81 catches for 1,159 yards and five touchdowns in 2011, despite catching passes from Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko and Kyle Orton.

This is a move we have all been suspecting but with Brandon Carr also set to become a free agent, there was still some question as to whom the team might tag. The signing of Stanford Routt seemed to be “Carr Insurance” if you will, leading most to assume that the tag was coming Bowe’s way.

Tradeoffs (sigh).

I haven’t seen the 2011 charting stat numbers yet, but I can tell you that in 2010, Stanford Routt, when paired up with Nmandi Asomugha, was a top shelf pass defender. Football Outsiders, for example, ranked him with the 3rd highest success rate, with 66% of passes defended. Carr ranked 10th in that department with 61% of passes defended. In fact, both scored better than Brandon Flowers, for what it’s worth. Also worth noting is that Routt only gave up 5.7 yards per pass to Carr’s 7.1 yd/pass. Given all that, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to expect Routt’s production to parallel his 2010 situation playing alongside Flowers.

There are also rumors circulating in the media that Routt was somebody for whom Romeo Crennel actively lobbied. If true, I think that’s also pretty significant in terms of scheme fit. For a really well-written, compelling look into the player we’re getting in Stanford Routt, I recommend Doug Farrar’s (Yahoo! Sports) recent piece on him. Long story short, I personally feel this is a really good signing no matter how you slice it.

Now that Routt is inked, it seems that the popular assumption, or expectation if you will, is that all this means is that Pioli got himself a guy with skills very comparable to those of Carr for what we think could be 2 or 3 million less per year. Cynically put, Pioli avoided some unnecessary negotation stress by landing a comparable replacement for Carr who, oh by the way, just so happens to be cheaper to pay. Given that, one is then further tempted to think that the safe, conservative move now is to simply franchise Bowe and let Carr walk. CB dilemma solved, franchise tag dilemma solved, all good.

Well guess what? I’m going to go against the grain and offer an even better strategy. Scotty, I hope you’re reading this (I also hope that after reading this, you’ll finally start responding to those thousands of suggestion letters I’ve sent you dammit!).

Bowe, while inconsistent at times, has shown the potential to be a gamechanger. That’s worth something in the NFL. I think he can also be considered a foundational player for the Chiefs. Also worth something. Still, I believe that Bowe, rather than being tagged, ought to be locked up into a long-term deal before free agency hits. Unless you’re planning to shop him– in and of itself a risky strategy on many fronts– I see no reason not to just sign him to a comfortable, reasonable, market value contract.

So why no tag for Bowe you ask? Well, first off because if you really want him, and you’ve come up with a good backup plan for Carr, then there’s really no reason whatsoever for not focusing all of your attention and energy on getting a deal done to make Bowe’s long-term presence as a Chief into reality. Not just that, but doesn’t it also help to further underscore that whole PR pledgy thingy to develop and retain core players?

As promising and exciting and foundational as Bowe might seem, it is also important to recognize that he simply has not proven himself to be among of the 5 best receivers in the league which, in a certain sense, is what the franchise tag kind of suggests. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the 12th best WR going into 2012 and 19th best among their Dynasty Rankings. Similarly, Football Outsiders ranked Bowe 51st in DVOA and 31st in DYAR for 2011. Not exactly what you’d call eye-popping production.

We all know that Bowe every once in awhile makes for some fun highlight reel footage, but does he honestly merit franchise tag money? Especially when you’re most likely not going to find many teams willing to exchange a high value pick for him? I think you see my point. Bottom line, paying Bowe like he’s a top 5 WR really doesn’t sound all that Clark-like to me. Lest we forget, Bowe was a 1st round draft pick– just how likely is it that we can get that for him now? ROI people, ROI.

Moving on, if Pioli can sign Bowe to a long-term deal before free agency hits, he’ll still have a franchise tag at his disposal, right? Well, please tell me then what would be the folly in using that tag on Carr? In fact, franchising Carr seems to me like the best of all possible moves at this point and I’m going to offer some reasons as to why that is so.

It’s a proverbial seller’s market for top tier CBs and this year is no different. Justifiable or not, Carr is almost certain to command an elite CB level of monetary respect out on the open market. What’s more, it seems there could be some healthy competition for a CB of Carr’s caliber. I can think of at least a couple of teams out there that are desperately needing major secondary talent who, oh by the way, also happen to have some pretty interesting draft pick horsepower to make a lucrative deal happen for the Chiefs. For example, both the Patriots and the Bengals are in need of quality CB help and both are holding on to spare 1st round picks. Just imagine all of the tantalizing draft possibilities that would suddenly open up for the Chiefs if that were to happen?

Move up and get a franchise QB? Check.
Pick up a couple of first round offensive linemen? Check.
Control the draft by moving down? Check.

So you say, “well Double D, suppose nobody is willing to pony up a high draft pick for Carr? Aren’t you then stuck with an overpaid secondary that you’re underutilizing most of the time because, well, as everybody knows, you really only need 2 good corners? Very, very risky. Very expensive (i.e., unClark-like). Not good. Or as my AA colleague Big Matt might say ‘Mattie no likey.’”

Not good? How about not so fast?

Merlin and I were texting back and forth on this whole deal the other day and he brought to my attention a pretty interesting fact of which I was previously unaware. To wit, an NFL nickel plays about 50% of all snaps currently. That is a lot. On top of that, the more success you have at containing teams on 1st down, the more likely it is that you’ll see the nickel utilized on successive downs. In fact, I think with the right personnel, a pretty compelling argument can be made for having the nickel formation as your base D.

When I think of Flowers, Carr, and Routt being on the field all at the same time, I start thinking “two’s company, but hey, three’s a party!” Arenas might excel at wrapping up receivers pretty quickly after the catch but he’s not exactly setting the world on fire when it comes to preventing that catch from happening in the first place. Just sayin.

As many on the message boards here have already suggested, the Routt signing may indeed turn out to be a very forward thinking approach on the part of Crennel and Pioli. In fact, passing against a defensive backfield comprised primarily of Flowers, Carr and Routt would be close to impossible. In this increasingly pass-friendly league, I have to think that that level of secondary presence would basically relegate opposing offenses to beating you with their running game, and maybe tossing in a few dink and dunks for good measure (which painfully brings to mind a certain low-scoring, rather flaccid offense with which I happen to be pretty familiar).

The only practical alternative to going with the run would be to simultaneously risk a lot of coverage sacks. Unless your QB can progress through his reads quickly and also get rid of the ball in a hurry, you’re gonna be in a heap of trouble. If a team goes run, we’ll have DJ, Berry, and perhaps Belcher up in there to contain it. If a team opts to pass, their dealing with a DB set of Flowers, Routt, Carr, and Berry with maybe DJ in coverage while Hali & Houston, along with either an ILB, S, or CB, are all breathing fire in your backfield.

Next– just stay with me here– we grab a very gettable guy in the form of one Paul Soliai as our NT. Tell me, how can that cannot be considered a run stuffing, block eating, shutdown, ballhawking, nightmare defense?

So, armed on defense, we head into the draft to start filling holes on offense.

Final (crazy?) thought. While neither has any experience at the position (at least none of which I’m aware), both Carr and Routt possess prototypical size and speed to play Safety, Routt perhaps moreso because of his physicality. Might this signing, combined with the retention Carr, offer more options and much needed depth at that position as well? I know, stupid idea, probably makes more sense to just plug Sabby Piscatelli whenever the need arises, right? I’m sure we’ll be just fine should Eric Berry happen to miss any games.

That’s my Double Take.

Sound off Addicts!

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Starting today the Kansas City Chiefs and the rest of the NFL can tag any player they deem worthy as their “franchise player.”

There are two types of franchise tags.

The exclusive franchise tag, can be applied once per off season by each NFL team. The tag is placed on a player set to become an unrestricted free agent. In the past, if given the tag, the player would be given a one-year contract no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player’s position or 120 percent of the player’s previous year’s salary, whichever is greater. However, under the terms of the new CBA, the tag offer will be the average of the top paid player at the respective position over the last five seasons, which will lower the financial value of the tag as player salaries tend to inflate each season. There is a more complicated explanation of the formula that you can read at Pro Football Talk if you so desire. Under this scenario, the player can’t negotiate with other teams. They must either sign with the team that franchised them or sit out.

The non-exclusive franchise tag is a little more interesting. If a team designates a player with the non-exclusive franchise tag, they must offer the player a contract that will be an average of the top five salaries at the player’s position in the previous year or 120 percent. The interesting aspect here is that the player can still negotiate with other clubs. If the player receives an offer from another team, the team that franchised the player is allowed to match the offer. If the franchising team refuses to match the offer, the player can sign with his new team, however the new team must compensate the franchising team to the tune of two first round draft picks.

It is possible but unlikely the Chiefs will use the franchise tag on either Dwayne Bowe or Brandon Carr today. They have a two-week window in which to make their decision, which means they will likely continue to negotiate with their players.

So what would it cost to franchise Bowe or Carr? According to some numbers from NFL.com, a franchise tag on Dwayne Bowe would cost the Chiefs $9.6 million in 2012. Using the tag on Brandon Carr would cost $10.6 million. Tagging either player would put the Chiefs on the hook for the salaries listed above unless the team could work out a long term deal with the player sometime this offseason. You may remember the Chiefs tagged Tamba Hali last season before the lockout to protect him from becoming a free agent. Shortly after the lockout was lifted, the Chiefs and Hali came to a contract agreement thus freeing the team from having to pay Hali the big one-year salary.

(more…)

According to Brian Williamson of ESPN.com, the Chiefs have $62 million in cap space going into the 2012 season. Chiefs Nation has its fingers crossed that they will actually spend said money. If they do, this is where methinks it should go, in order of priority:

1.) Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe and CB Brandon Carr.

I put these two together, partially to make a point. I think it is important to point out just how cool it is that the Chiefs have two top-10 free agents and the cash to re-sign them. Carr was a fifth-round pick and represents the type of talent this team needs to draft, reward and build around in the future. Not all fifth rounders are going to become quality starters, but it sends a powerful message throughout the organization that no matter how you make it to Arrowhead, if you work hard, develop and don’t get into locker room drama or off-the-field problems, you will be heavily rewarded.

Only one can get the tag, so all things being equal, it makes the most sense to franchise Bowe, because the franchise number for wideouts is $1.2 million cheaper than it is for cornerbacks this year. I’m also more enthusiastic about Carr long-term than Bowe. Bowe is fantastic at times, but he’s had enough issues to where there are more concerns about giving him a monster long-term deal. Carr has been a solid workman – no drama, no quitting, no mug shots. Giving Carr a long-term deal should be easy, whereas some other issues may be worked out with Bowe and the franchise tag gives them another year to do that.

All of that said, it may make more sense to front-load the contracts for these two guys. A four-year deal for each of these guys would probably average about $8 million per year each. But, because the Chiefs are sitting on a cap mother lode, they may as well dump a lot of that salary in bonuses this year – paying each of them, say, $15 million and leaving them with a base salary of $6 million or lower for the next three years. This gives the Chiefs a lot of extra flexibility moving forward.

Plan B:

I mean, I guess you go after Stanford Routt and Vincent Jackson if you for some reason can’t lock up Carr and Bowe. But, while Jackson has a bit more downfield speed than Bowe, I think the two of them are at best equal to Bowe and Carr overall. Routt got tons of penalties for Oakland last year, and Jackson has more attitude issues than Dwayne.

2.) New Orleans G Carl Nicks

Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Paddy pointed to Nicks two weeks before the Super Bowl, and he is still very right. He will be pricey, but very rarely do the best in the biz come available at their position while still young. Nicks is 26, and considered by many to be the best guard in the NFL. If we’re going to shell out this season, this is some conspicuous spending I can get behind. Although the Chiefs were decent in the interior of their O-line last year, their overall depth is dreadful. Snagging Nicks gives the Chiefs a solid rotation of Wiegmann/Hudson at center and Lilja/Asamoah at the other guard position.

Plan B:

Stanford guard David DeCastro is frequently mocked to the Chiefs in the 2012 draft. KC seems to be in the sweet spot for picking him up – 11/12 is typically a bit early to draft and interior lineman, but DeCastro is an atypical talent. Furthermore, as Ladner pointed out last week, guard is about the safest position you can pick at the top of the draft. Ravens G Ben Grubbs would also be a decent pickup, he’s 28, but has had a lot of injury problems.

3.) Texans C Chris Myers*

*If Wiegmann retires.

Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Just like Nicks, taking on Myers would add talent to the middle of the line, and would also deepen the Chiefs overall depth in the trenches. The Texans had the best O-line in the NFL, and it was anchored by Myers, who may have been the best center. In addition to being a force up the middle, Myers is a grizzled veteran at calling blocking assignments and keeping the Texans unit gelling. Hudson struggled somewhat in limited snaps at center, and I think I’d feel better about bringing in a serious starter at C if Wiegmann retires, considering how dependent the Chiefs are on the run game for offensive success. Myers is 31, so a two-year deal may be the kind of stopgap that will allow Hudson to transition well into the role. With both Myers and Nicks tearing up the middle, the Chiefs could have a historic running game.

Plan B:

I don’t think this is a huge area of need if Wiegmann sticks it out for another year. I still think the Chiefs should spend a mid-round pick on an interior lineman, just because that’s the kind of position you can never be overloaded in. Hudson would likely perform average or better if thrown into the fire this year.

4.) Dolphins NT Paul Soliai

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Soliai is one of the few true NT’s in the NFL. While he doesn’t put up mean stats, he holds down the middle of the line like a trooper. Miami franchised him last year, and with good reason – they recognize that their 3-4 scheme depends on him. But, because the Dolphins would have to pay him more than $15 million to franchise him this year and Soliai appears determined to test the market, the Chiefs should be able to swoop down and snatch him. Last year, AA writers were pounding the table for Aubrayo Franklin, but he was picked up by the Saints and underwhelmed. I do not thing the same will be the case for Soliai. The Dolphins run a similar defense to the Chiefs and he would fit right in.

Plan B:

While older than Soliai, Simone Pouha, at 33, would be both a stopgap and an upgrade over Kelly Gregg. He’s had more than 50 tackles each of the last two years for the Jets at nose tackle, which is impressive.

5.) Patriots RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

I touched on this last week, and I think this signing is both wise and likely. While he hasn’t shown himself to be effective as an every-down back – not that the Patriots run it much anyway – he could be a great 3^rd-down back for the Chiefs. Regardless of what the Chiefs do with the RB position in the draft, if they enter the season with Jamaal Charles, the Law Firm, and Jackie Battle, it’ll easily the best and most varied running-back situation they’ve had in at least five years. Light, medium and heavy.

Plan B: Ray Rice is going to get franchised and Marshawn Lynch inspires little excitement as a complimentary piece to Charles. This is an overall weak RB free agent class, which brings us to the draft …

Where this would put us:

If Pioli/Hunt were to take my advice for the first time in the history of time, we would be solid in both the defensive and offensive backfields and have possibly the best interior O-line in the NFL. We would also have the closest thing to a complete defensive line KC has had in a decade or more. The only real hole on the roster would be right tackle.

However, most importantly, making these moves would put the Chiefs in the best possible position to get value in the draft. There is a glut of quality options at right tackle in the first three rounds. It is likely that Jonathan Martin will fall to the Chiefs, an athletic guy that could play either tackle position. But, knowing that they will have the opportunity to pick other good values at their only real need position, the Chiefs could instead use that first pick as a luxury – snagging the best talent on the board.

With a potential trading frenzy over QBs above them and a draft-philosophy bias against running backs, Trent Richardson could very well fall to the Chiefs. Not a need, but can you imagine how well KC would be set up with a RB stable of Charles, Richardson and the Law Firm? The Chiefs could also take the opportunity to go after whatever top-rated QB falls out of the top 10. Regardless of what you think of Cassel, I definitely would feel better about the quality of the position moving forward if he were competing against Ryan Tannehill in the next training camp. But, frankly, the possibilities are endless and I think Pioli should be interested in getting the best talent available.

He drafted for need by picking Tyson Jackson in 2009. He learned his lesson by taking the best player on the board with Eric Berry in 2010. Hopefully, the Chiefs both keep that experience in mind and set themselves up to do it right this year.

Well, Chiefs fans, today is Valentine’s Day, and that means only one thing: margaritas.

However, while it might be our tradition to spend every Valentine’s Night at a Mexican restaurant (the tacky-red-paper-hearts-per-person quotient is much lower), I realize everyone approaches this fake holiday in his or her own special way. Even back in third grade—which, frankly, is where the celebration of this day should begin and end—when societal norms and, more specifically, Mrs. Brockmeyer demanded that we give paper valentines to everyone in class, we had to decide which valentines best represented us, as well as which of our secret crushes would receive the more risqué—and risky—messages.*

*Was “You rock, Valentine!” coming on way too strong?

Just as a set of perforated Transformers valentines (“Let’s roll, Valentine! You’re a Mega Friend!”) perfectly represented who I was back in 1984, today’s Kansas City Chiefs fans need valentines that speak to us, that capture the angst and occasional joy of this tumultuous relationship in which we’ve entangled ourselves. And among all the boxes of Harry Potter, Shrek, and Smurfs valentines at the local CVS, I couldn’t find any. So—you can guess what’s coming next—I had no choice but to make a few of my own.

Feel free to print, perforate, and share as you wish. Perhaps—just like the Indianapolis Colts on draft day—you’ll get lucky.

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Last week the Chiefs announced that they had re-signed back up tight end Jake O’Connell. When I heard this news my exact thoughts were “I’m not upset that they re-signed him, but he certainly wouldn’t make my list of Top 10 Free Agents that I’d like the Chiefs to re-sign.” Which then got me to thinking, who exactly would be on my list? Obviously, we all can agree that Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Carr are the top priority, but on a team that lacked quality depth last year, what other players should we be hoping the Chiefs bring back? I gave it some thought and came up with the following list.

Let’s get started:

10. Amon Gordon

Nov 21, 2011; Foxboro, MA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Amon Gordon (99) lines up against the New England Patriots during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated to Chiefs 34-3. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-US PRESSWIRE

Gordon was a pleasant surprise last year. He basically walked in off the street last year and locked down the backup nose tackle spot. He even managed to rack up a couple of sacks, which is something that KC’s other “big boys” haven’t been able to do. The down side is that his play kept Jerrell Powe off the field. Speculation is that Kelly Gregg won’t be back and Gordon would be cheap depth for whomever KC brings in to be the new starting NT.

The other two players I considered for this number 10 spot were Barry Richardson and Leonard Pope, both of whom were starters last season. Richardson would provide quality depth if he was brought back as the backup swing tackle, but ultimately I’m so afraid of the Chiefs trying to start him again that I decided to leave him off the list altogether. With Moeaki coming back from injury I’d like to see KC sign someone with more offensive upside then Pope for the number 2 TE spot.

So, that happened. Another NFL season (and postseason) has come and gone. Forgive my lack of enthusiasm as I watched the New York Giants win the Super Bowl for the fourth time in my lifetime, and the New England Patriots lose it for the fourth time (to go along with their three championships). In fact, in the 38 Super Bowls I have lived through (not that I really remember Super Bowls IX through, oh, XV or XVI), 27 different teams have participated. Not one of them has been the Kansas City Chiefs—their Super Bowl appearances live in other people’s memories.

But the good news, of course, is that as soon as Tom Brady’s last “Hail Myra” pass landed incomplete in the end zone and Super Bowl XLVI officially came to an end, the Chiefs were immediately back in contention. All eyes, and odds, are now focused on 2012-13, and the earliest probabilities are already in. The MGM Grand Las Vegas and at least one leading gaming site have opened betting season with the Chiefs as 50-1 shots to win Super Bowl XLVII, which is as good or better than 13 other teams. Not quite as favorable as the 40-1 odds they were given a year ago, but much better than the one-in-100 chance set before the Chiefs’ 2010 AFC West Championship season.

In other words, the odds-makers don’t really know what they’re doing, at least at this stage—out of last year’s top five preseason favorites, three didn’t even make the playoffs. But for fans, it’s amusing to see just how favorably (or not) our team’s prospects are marked in the books of various distinguished sports-betting establishments, and ask ourselves, “What if…?”

Last year at this time, I made a list of the XLVI reasons the Chiefs could win it all. A number of those “reasons” are now no longer with the team or else tore up their knees within the first few weeks of the season. So I’ve learned my lesson—and I’m not about to try to come up with XLVII reasons now. After all, so many things can happen: the most important players can get hurt, the coach can go crazy, the GM can go crazier…I mean, what are the odds?

Ah. Good question. Why don’t we find out?

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“Winning isn’t everything—it’s the only thing.”

This legendary sports quote is most often attributed to legendary coach Vince Lombardi,* but rarely is it reprinted in its entirety: “Winning isn’t everything—it’s the only thing I love more than picking up candy wrappers.”

*Speaking of Green Bay, I didn’t get to see much of the games this past weekend, but I’m looking forward to Sunday. What time is Saints-Packers?

In the history of sports and coaching—particularly the rarified domain of big-time professional sports ownership and leadership—there have always been idiosyncratic personalities. That’s not news, and it’s one of the reasons why Kansas City Star reporter Kent Babb’s examination of “Arrowhead Anxiety” was as credible in its concept as it was dreadful in some of its details.

The sidebar—“Gold, greed lead to murder”—is actually unrelated.

Babb’s story was a solid piece of reporting, based on weeks of investigation and reflection and more than 30 interviews (as it should be—I wish I hadn’t been so pleasantly surprised by its thoroughness). For that alone, it deserved to be on the front page. As to whether it deserved to be the front page—for anyone who hasn’t seen the hard copy, Babb’s story (and its accompanying, menacing graphic) occupy about 80 percent of the broadsheet (right)—or to be the only sports story discussed in Kansas City and to make its way to many other markets, I have mixed feelings.

Actually, not mixed at all—I hate that we’re talking about this, because even though football is the undercurrent and the reason we care, actual football-on-the-field is removed from this discussion. I understand it’s interesting that Chiefs executives may seem more preoccupied with the surreptitious routes their employees take to lunch (so as not to be seen fraternizing with one another) than they are with Dwayne Bowe’s pass routes,* but does that mean we should be? Can’t we all just get back to relishing the end of Tebow Time?**

*I stole that clever route comparison from Nick Wright, who spent about four hours—three-and-a-half hours too many—discussing this on his show yesterday.

**And its return next fall, which, I feel, will ultimately be a good thing for the Chiefs (and all of the Denver Broncos’ opponents).

Yes, I’m writing about it right now, and no, I don’t think I’m hypocritical for doing so. Not wanting to talk about something and believing it can’t be ignored are two different things. I’m adding to the hubbub,* but I hope that by talking it out now, we will all see this story fade away sooner.

*Couldn’t decide whether to go with “hubbub” or “hullabaloo.” Hullabaloo? Yeah, I should have used hullabaloo.

Because I don’t have much at all to add—it’s hard to imagine how anyone could—to the comprehensive scrutiny laid down by Big Matt and Lyle yesterday. I appreciate the points made all around. I agree with most of Matt’s observations and roughly 100 percent of Lyle’s conclusions (and in the comments, it sounds like Matt agrees more than disagrees, too). So before I leave it at that, I will share just a couple of my own, none-too-profound reactions to the article and its allegations…

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Kansas City Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has done some media rounds recently, mostly on his team’s own website, to talk about the hiring of new head coach Romeo Crennel.

One of the big questions asked of Pioli, which he has no intention of answering in a forthright manner, is whether or not the Chiefs will retain some of their top free agents. The two players most folks probably want to know about are CB Brandon Carr and WR Dwayne Bowe.

Pioli still has plenty of time to work on retaining these players. They won’t become free agents until mid-March so the GM has about 60 days to get deals worked out.

Still, some of Pioli’s quotes this week lead me to believe that there could be trouble.

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