Super Bowl XVII is in the books and the 2013 offseason has officially begun.

For the Chiefs, of course, the draft talk has been going since mid-season and in case there is was any doubt, I am in the camp of fans clamoring for the Chiefs to take a quarterback with their first pick.

I’ve come to this decision not because I’m smitten with any particular prospect (although I think Geno Smith currently leads the class), but because I think all other options are uninspiring and won’t help this team take the next step. In short, I think Geno wins by process of elimination. To make that point, I’ll be going through all the other players frequently mocked to the Chiefs and that the team will be able to grab with the 1^st overall pick.

First up, DT Star Lotulelei.

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The Good:

Star Lotulelei is a big, big man who is extremely powerful and stunningly fast. He once caused a fumbled snap and recovered it against USC because he hit the center so quickly and powerfully that the guy was on his rear before he ever got the ball to the QB. That’s really hard to do in the split second that the ball goes from the ground to the quarterback’s hands.

Although he made his bones blowing up blocks in the middle and causing havoc for offensive lines, he also was able to chase down runners from behind on plays where he was left unblocked on counters in one direction of the other. Overall, the player he most reminds me of is B.J. Raji – both an unstoppable force and an immovable object. I’m really not sure what would happen if two Star Lotulelei’s collided, but it would probably tear a hole in time and space.

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The Bad:

We’ve drafted this guy before.

Several times in fact.

This isn’t necessarily his fault, but I don’t need to remind Chiefs fans that this team has an awful history of selecting defensive linemen with their first picks in the draft. Still, in case anyone has forgotten, this is how it has gone lately with run-stuffing DT’s that KC grabbed with their first selection that year:

2001, 75^th overall pick Eric Downing – Started just 13 games for the team in three years before being cut and picked up by the Chargers, who in turn cut him after one season. He accumulated just two sacks and 44 tackles in those four years.

2002, 6^th overall pick Ryan Sims – Started 36 games for the team in five seasons on the roster, racking up just five sacks and 64 tackles before being let go.

2004, 36^th overall pick Junior Siavii – Cut after two years without ever starting a game. Had 13 tackles and one sack for the Chiefs.

2006, 20^th overall pick Tamba Hali – Obviously has become a franchise pass rusher for the team and one of the most important pieces of our defense … but only after we moved him off the line to linebacker.

2008, 5^th overall pick Glenn Dorsey – Has never been worth his contract although he has turned into a respectable player in the 3-4, but he’s been injury prone and his best season was in that magical (possibly fluky) 2010 season, in which he had 51 tackles and two sacks. My guess is that he won’t be with the team next year.

2009, 3^rd overall pick Tyson Jackson – Last November, Pro Football Focus wrote of Jackson: “However you want to spin it, Jackson was a bad draft pick. Not because he’s a bad player, but because you don’t spend a third overall pick on a two down run stuffing end [more on that later]. That’s what the Chiefs did and they’re having to live with the consequences of his astronomical salary. His work in the run game has been decent this year (though nowhere near as good as 2011), but he’s yet to pick up any pressure. In fact, throughout his career he has 19 quarterback disruptions. Through 8 weeks of the NFL season, 43 defenders have more this season alone.”

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2012, 11^th overall pick Dontari Poe – He may yet turn into something, but a pass rusher he is not. At the end of the year, PFF noted: “In his rookie season, Dontari Poe had the lowest Pass Rushing Productivity of all defensive/nose tackle, at 2.3. In his 391 pass rushes, he had zero sacks, three hits and nine hurries. The two lowest 3-4 defensive ends included Tyson Jackson at 2.2, and Ropati Pitoitua at 2.3.”

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In other words, Kansas City defensive linemen have been useless against the pass, and that won’t change if we pick up Lotulelei.

Although he is Scouts Inc.’s top overall rated player and is the top rated defensive tackle (4^th overall) on Mel Kiper’s Big Board, he still grades out poorly as anything other than a run-stuffer. He had just average production for his position with 41 tackles and five sacks in 2012. As with Poe, scouts rightly point out that given the extreme difference in level of play between college and the NFL, prospects should stand out big time at the college level. They should look like the best player on the field – especially if they are considered a top-10 pick. I’m not sure that’s the case with Lotulelei.

Scouts Inc. graded him as “below average” on pass rush skills, saying: “Needs development and doesn’t have a ton of upside in this area. Flashes an effective bull rush to collapse the pocket when staying low. However, too often comes off the ball too high initially. Does not have a wide array of pass rushing moves right now. Also needs development with hands in combat to counter. Shows good instincts to get his hands up in throwing lanes when seeing quarterbacks start their throwing motion.”

The only thing they graded him as “exceptional” in was his durability and run defense, saying he’d be a good fit in a Romeo Crennel-style two-gap 3-4 – an accolade that sends a chill down my spine.

If he hasn’t been effective at rushing the passer in college, he won’t be in NFL. The fact that scouts don’t believe he has upside in that area should worry any coach. Honestly, given how much passing and defending the pass has become the marquis struggle in the league, I’m amazed at how highly Lotulelei is projected to be selected.

In the end, I agree with  what PFF said about Jackson. You just don’t pick run-stuffers this high in the draft. While a pass can be disrupted by a single player, run-defense is squad-level effort and one player is not going to make the same impact against the run as a pass-rushing specialist will at getting after the quarterback. Even if one D-lineman is especially fierce against runners, teams will just run around him. It’s always good when your defense can dictate what the other team is able to do, but making them run left instead of right isn’t as big of a contribution as them having to keep extra backs in for pass pro or ignore a side of the field because their receivers are stuck on Revis Island.

While it would be a painfully Chiefs-esque move, the team should definitely not spend their 1^st pick this year on Star Lotulelei. He might help us, but he won’t fundamentally change this team, which is in need of serious work.

Last Friday, a shot rang out through Chiefs nation – one that meant hope, credibility and a lot of change.

By firing GM Scott Pioli and bringing in head coach Andy Reid, Clark Hunt has set the franchise on an entirely new path.

Firstly, he has done away with the team’s traditional hierarchical structure that seats a powerful general manager above the coaching staff. Make no mistake, going forward, for better or worse, Reid is going to be calling the shots during the offseason, the draft, et cetera.

Four years ago, the Chiefs hired a highly reputed front office wiz from the New England Patriots. Although everyone knows that Bill Belichick is the mastermind behind New England’s success, this guy was a vital cog in his machine and it was believed that the numbers guy could be brought in to reproduce it. That failed, and Hunt learned his lesson. This time around, by hiring Andy Reid, he didn’t get Pioli, he got Belichick.

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Having secured a lucrative contract that gives him wide-sweeping authority, make no mistake, Reid is going to make a lot of changes. He comes with a distinct philosophy, working style and mold for a successful team.

Reid is definitely going to make his imprint on this team during this offseason, which means several players are going to get their walking papers while others are going to see their role increase. We still don’t know exactly who Reid will take on with his staff or whether or not he will be keeping the Chiefs’ 3-4 defense, but judging by the way he built the Eagles, I think we can say which players should be happy and which should be nervous.

Offense

Extremely Happy:

WR’s Steve Breaston, Dexter McCluster and Devon Wylie

Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Reid loves small receivers that are great route-runners. McCluster has come on has an effective slot guy and I have a feeling that Reid will find something to do with Breaston who was criminally underused this season. Meanwhile, Wylie showed up late as another developing tool in the Chiefs passing game.

Happy:

RB Jamaal Charles, LT Brandon Albert

It’s been widely said that Reid doesn’t like to run the ball, but that’s not really true. The Eagles were 19^th in rushing attempts per game this year, 12^th last year and 15^th in 2010. In other words, they’re pretty much in the middle of the pack. Charles will still be getting fewer touches on runs out of the backfield (largely because the Chiefs have been one of the most run-happy teams in the league), but he will make up for that with more screens and quick passes thrown his way per game. Charles is a good route runner and could easily become a faster version of Brian Westbrook.

Reid also highly values the offensive line and doesn’t mind spending big to keep it shored up. This is good news for Albert, whose contract is up.

Extremely Worried:

RB Peyton Hillis and WR’s Jonathan Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe

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Hillis is gone. His fantastic game against the Colts notwithstanding, Hillis was a disappointment, only rushing for 309 yards this season for a 3.6-yard average. Like Hillis, Baldwin and Bowe also don’t really fit Reid’s scheme. Bowe is a great outside, move-the-chains threat, but Reid doesn’t typically utilize such receivers. He prefers getting the ball into the hands of smaller, more dynamic players in the middle that have the chance to make big plays. Baldwin has done next to nothing in the league and doesn’t fit this new mold. Bowe will probably be allowed to walk this offseason in favor of a free agent like Mike Wallace. Baldwin will probably get his last chance to prove his worth in the 2013 preseason.

Defense

Extremely Happy:

S Eric Berry

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Reid made great use of safety Brian Dawkins early in his time in Philadelphia as a jack-of-all-trades blitzer, run stuffer and cover guy. Berry has the physical tools to do the same, and I can’t wait to see the creative ways Reid decides to use him.

Happy:

OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston

Although nothing is certain at this point, it is likely that Reid will want to move back to a 4-3 defense and use both Hali and Houston as edge rushers on the line. Hali is originally a defensive end and will likely be happy to return. Although Houston has done admirably in picking up coverage skills, I personally think it is a waste to make him drop back on passing downs when he truly excels at getting after the quarterback. In a Reid defense, he likely to be able focus on doing just that.

Worried:

The rest of the front seven

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Especially if the team abandons the 3-4, DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are likely toast. Both are overpaid and underwhelming and I don’t see Reid wanting to keep reinvesting in those projects. Poe will likely stay a bit longer because he is still developing and would likely be effective in a 4-3 as well.

Unfortunately for the guys behind them, Reid has never heavily prized the linebacker position. In his years in Philly, he always invested high picks and free agent signings in defensive linemen and DBs while allowing the linebacking corps to be filled by a revolving door of journeymen.

Although we know Derrick Johnson can excel in the role of a 4-3 middle linebacker, it is still unclear whether Reid will want to pay him big money to continue to do so when his contract is up.

This list will change as we find out more about what Reid plans to do with this team, and I’ll try to keep you all updated as we all find out more.

With their thumping 27-17 win (with the score 17-0 as the starters left the field), the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs have made their presence known, and while I always anticipated the Chiefs to be improved this year, it was clear that this game was all about surprise.

Suddenly, the national media have looked up from their Peyton Manning talking points and realized that there is another team in the AFC West – one far more likely to be playoff bound. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen said as much after the game via Twitter, “I’m starting to agree with #Chiefs fans – national media (ESPN included) has fallen asleep on KC. They may be team to beat in AFC West.”

It’s important to remember that the Chiefs and the Cardinals were considered to be evenly-matched teams before this game. In fact, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports had the Cards ranked 16^th in his July 25 power rankings, with the Chiefs at a lowly 22^nd, justified by a rote comment about Matt Cassel defining the team’s overall worth (the laziness of what passes for analysis by national football writers astounds me at times).

But, it wasn’t just surprising that the Chiefs were impressive, or even that they gave Arizona a shellacking – it’s how they dominated. WR Dwayne Bowe wasn’t on the field. Neither WR Steve Breaston, nor WR Jonathan Baldwin, who has been blowing up training camp, caught a single pass. RB Jamaal Charles had just three carries for 12 yards. OLB Tamba Hali had zero sacks, and NT Dontari Poe barely registered his presence. And the Chiefs dominated.

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Matt Cassel looked polished and comfortable, going 5/6 for 67 yards and a TD. RB Peyton Hillis, coming off a down year, looked fantastic running for 41 yards on four carries plus an 11-yard touchdown pass. WR/RB Dexter McCluster showed his skills as a matchup nightmare, reeling in three passes for 45 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense started with back-to-back 3-and-outs followed by an interception and tallied seven sacks on the night. In the limited amount of time that the Chiefs’ starters were out on the field, it was a massacre. In the late first quarter, I wrote in my notes “THIS IS CHILD’S PLAY!”

This game was also all about surprise because of the play-calling of OC Brian Daboll. I already love this man. Most notable was his fantastic call on 4^th and 3. The Chiefs lined up with heavy personnel in a goal-line formation. As the defense began stacking the box to charge in up the middle, Cassel motioned all the backs and TEs out wide making it a five-receiver set with an open backfield. This threw the defense into chaos as they tried to adjust to coverage in panic. While they were still yelling at each other, Cassel slid in behind C Rodney Hudson for a sneaky conversion. I cannot tell you how much I loved that play – great design, perfectly executed.

Ever since Daboll was hired, we at AA and across Chiefs Nation have been pondering what Daboll’s offence “based on matchups” really meant. I think we’re now beginning to figure that out. While I think this game confirmed my assertion that Hillis could end up the Chiefs’ biggest free agent acquisition, I’m already eating my words about WR Devon Wylie and RB Cyrus Gray replacing McCluster. Dex’s move to being a pure slot receiver already looks like it will pay off dividends in 2012. On two big plays, Daboll drew things up so that Baldwin – the #1 target – would force a one-on-one on McCluster, who has now definitely shown that he has improved his route-running and ability to get open.

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Most fundamentally, as Paddy pointed out, it’s clear the Chiefs generally grasp his offense and are executing it well. During the second half, GM Scott Pioli was in the press box talking about how the Chiefs now run like a well-oiled machine, getting plays in on time and communicating efficiently. As much as his image as a disciplinarian and ultra stickler for detail put me off, it is clear that the overall culture he is trying to install works. Players were always walking with confidence out there, and coaches seemed to be able to communicate well without wasting time with petty bickering.

The other big surprise is how deep the Chiefs seem to be at nose tackle. While Poe showed he still has a lot to learn, former practice-squader Anthony Toribio showed why he has taken the starting spot. He consistently got off blocks and single-handedly stuffed a running back in the backfield playing against the Cardinals’ starters. Meanwhile, Jerrel Powe was also impressive, getting penetration several times and even notching a sack from the nose tackle position. Poe clearly pushed the pocket on a few downs, but often times seemed to be playing patty-cake with the O-linemen – still unsure of how to use his hands effectively. He seemed to either be focusing too much on his hands or not enough. But, at the very least, he did get double-teamed nearly every time, which was a large part of why KC racked up so many sacks on the game.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The only negative surprises in this game were in the play of the Chiefs’ backup QBs. Although they are in a tight competition, neither played well. Still, neither arguably played worse than Arizona’s two quarterbacks competing over the starting job. I look forward to seeing Tanney bank some passes off the uprights for a touchdown in Game 2 of the preseason.

Generally speaking, it was hard to come away with anything but positive vibes after this game. The Chiefs are back with a vengeance this year and they have shown that they can beat you in any number of different ways. Wherever you are weakest, that’s where we will strike, because we have the tools to get you anywhere, anytime.

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The Kansas City Chiefs have announced that they’ve agreed to a deal with rookie first-round pick Dontari Poe.

Entering the day, there was some concern over whether or not the team would have Poe to training camp on time.

From KCChiefs.com:

Poe, like all first-round draft picks, agreed to a four-year deal with a fifth-year team option. Per team policy, financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Poe’s signing means that the Chiefs will begin training camp practices with all of their draft picks under contract for the first time in six years.

This is good news for Chiefs fans.

Now here is the bad.

As far as I can tell, the Chiefs’ roster now stands at 90, which is the limit. The signing of Poe and offensive lineman Tony Ugoh, leads me to believe that the Chiefs may not be expecting Dwayne Bowe to report to camp. Unless the team is planning to announce the release of another player (looking at you Donald Washington) it wouldn’t have made sense to sign Ugoh if they were expecting Bowe.

We’ll be keeping an eye on things to see if any more moves are made or if Bowe shows up to camp. We’ve already discussed that it makes almost no sense for Bowe to not come to camp on time.

Let’s hope Bowe sees it that way too.

For now, who is pumped to have the big man in camp?

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The Kansas City Chiefs will be arriving in St. Joseph today in preparation for training camp which will kick off tomorrow when the team hits the field for its first practice.

The story lines will be many throughout camp, but today the focus will be on just two players: Dwayne Bowe and Dontari Poe. Neither player has a contract yet.

By now you know the story. Bowe has to play the 2012 season under the franchise tender the Chiefs offered him. He has previously said that he would be at camp on time. However, yesterday’s prediction (not a report) by Adam Schefter of ESPN , that Bowe would hold out long into camp, has some Chiefs fans worried. We’ll find out today if Bowe plans to stay true to his word of if he plans to stick it to the Chiefs (and himself) by continuing what is now a pointless holdout.

As for Poe, the situation is a little less clear. Just a couple of days ago there were reports that the Chiefs and Poe were not close on a deal. The Chiefs don’t usually announce signings until the pen hits the paper so there is a chance a deal is in place and that Poe will sign it when he arrives today for camp. If there isn’t a deal, well then presumably Poe won’t show and then we’ll know where that situation stands.

Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has done a pretty good job of getting his draft picks in on time, except for OLB Justin Houston, who did miss some time last season while his deal was being completed.

We’ll be monitoring the situation today and we’ll let you know as soon as we hear anything.

What do you think Addicts? Will Bowe be there? What about Poe?

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs may hold the rights to Dontari Poe, but until the rookie signs a contract he won’t officially be a Kansas City Chiefs.

Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has three days.

The Chiefs will begin arriving at training camp on Thursday and it would be ideal for Poe to have a contract before then so he can get in on time. The first organized team practice will take place on Friday morning.

It is a little but surprising that Poe doesn’t have a deal done yet. The draft picks directly in front of and behind him have been signed for a while now.

Still, there are a handful of first-round players who have yet to ink their deals, though more and more are getting something done as camps get closer. The Cleveland Browns managed to ink second overall pick Trent Richardson yesterday and they are reportedly close to signing QB Brandon Weeden.

Chances are the Chiefs and Poe will get something done before camp so there is no reason to panic yet. Rookie signings have been much swifter this offseason thanks to the perimeters of the new CBA.

The holdup here might not have as much to do with actual dollar amounts as it does with a clause in the contracts called “offset language.” Basically what that means is that the Chiefs would get some relief should they cut Poe before his contract is up. For instance, say Poe is a huge bust and the Chiefs cut him after two years. Let’s say Poe is due $2 million in the third year of his contract. The Chiefs would still owe Poe that $2 million even if they cut him, even if he signed with another team. If offset language is in the contract and Poe signs elsewhere, the Chiefs will only be on the hook for the difference, if the difference is less than what Poe is owed by the Chiefs. So if Poe is due $2 million in year three and he signs a one-year contract worth $1 million with another team, the Chiefs would only owe Poe $1 million.

There hasn’t been any proof that this is what is holding up the Chiefs and Poe but there have been rumors in NFL circles that this issue is the main problem in most negotiations. The players want all their money even if they get cut and the teams want protection should the player bust.

Whatever the holdup, the Chiefs and Poe had better get a move on. The clock is ticking.

May 13, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs first round draft pick Dontari Poe (92, right) and defensive end Ethan Johnson (70) run drills with defensive line coach Anthony Pleasant at the Kansas City Chiefs practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

When considering the Chiefs’ choice to draft Dontari Poe, it’s hard for the average football fan to ignore his lack of college production, or the negative connotations of being labeled a “workout warrior.” One thing is clear, however: Poe’s lot in the NFL will be made, first and foremost, at the NT position. As we get closer to training camp (a/k/a the first time this year that our linemen can actually, you know, HIT one another), let’s take an in-depth look at Poe and the road ahead.

Romeo Crennel will be the first to point out that Poe did a whole lot of line jumping in college. It’s actually hard to recall if Poe ever lined up in the same “technique” in consecutive plays during his time in Memphis. As Poe’s college coaches and coordinators often played him at several spots throughout the line each and every game, the case could be made that this position jumping is the cause of Poe’s lack of college production. It may even be fair, to an extent, to at least allow some of Poe’s line jumping to account for his lack of college production… but while the tape shows the jumping, it also shows that Poe needs to work on and refine the technical skills (moves) needed by a defensive lineman.

Watching Poe’s tape, you may occasionally see an effective spin move or a well-executed stunt, but he seems to show signs of not having been entirely taught proper execution of the moves and/or which moves are most effectively used in which situations. DL moves other than spin moves and stunts include rip moves, swim moves, speed rushes, bull rushes, shucks and shivers.

From the NT position, the chance to use a spin move (at least effectively and without blowing your assignment) is slim to nil; such opportunities may arise, but not enough that this should be a focus for Poe early on in KC. The same can be said with a speed rush. Lining up head to head on a player (for NTs on the Center, this is often referred to as a “zero technique”), swim moves also carry their risks, as a swim move will bring the D-Lineman up a little higher, in turn allowing the blocker the opportunity to get squarely underneath the DL’s pads and win the leverage war. Stunts* are a more advanced technique and, while I’m sure Poe will eventually be taught and repped on these until he can perform them expertly, I don’t see him attempting these too often this year (at least in the earlier part) unless out of desperation or for the sake of “mixing it up” Crennel calls a play directing Poe to do so. Shucks and shivers are a little difficult to explain in writing, and are slightly more advanced than rips and bull rushes, so I won’t get into them too much now.

*”Stunt” as used here is not in reference to the two types of stunts as described here. Rather I’m referring to the “4-3 Stunt” as utilized and popularized by “Mean” Joe Greene, wherein the DT lines up at an angle and bull rushes the first OL he’s facing with the goal of driving that OL into his neighboring OL(s). The camera work on Poe’s infamous Tulane tape isn’t always at great angles for checking out Poe, but there’s one really good shot of Poe performing a well-executed, successful, Mean-Joe-Greene-style stunt. This happened in some of his other college games too, with the same promising result. In a 3-4, this won’t be the first thing on the coaching staff’s list of things to work on and perfect with Poe, but may come in handy down the line (think 2-4-5 in an obvious passing situation: with added coverage already downfield, if Poe’s able to take out 2-3 OL on his own, it would spell trouble for opposing QBs, especially with the likes of Hali, Houston & Berry on the field… and we’re not talking “taking out” 2-3 OL by being double-teamed or triple-teamed, in that scenario one could always break off to pick up a blitzer. No, we’re talking TAKING OUT as in 2-3 OL suddenly on their asses wondering “Who dat? Who dere?”). Look for this ability to be groomed in the longer term Evolution of Poe.

So, other moves aside, we’re left with the rip, and the bull rush … and our first expectation. Expect these moves to be the first technical skills that Romeo and DL Coach Anthony Pleasant drill into Dontari. How and why these moves work is simple to understand, and should be quick for Poe to pick up in that respect. Knowing when and how to execute these moves well will take time and repetition until the moves becomes more natural and fluid. Priority One in developing Poe will likely be to jump on the live-action thrill of drilling him in these moves.

As I believe most casual fans will know what a rip move is and why it’s used (thank you for making my job easier, EA Sports), I’ll spare going into those details.

A bull rush is also fairly common and self-explanatory, and while I won’t go into too much detail, it’s important to note that bull rushes should play to Poe’s advantage well and should (read: darn well better) become one of his earliest playing strengths. Poe’s size and strength give him an edge in bull rushing, but it’s also important not to gloss over some finer points in the technique in practice (which, given his size and strength, I suspect his Memphis coaches kinda relied on Poe getting by with those attributes alone and didn’t care to coach him more in depth). You can be big and strong in the NFL and still make only a small splash of impact if not taught how to use your size and strength to your advantage. With the bull rush in particular, size and strength could be a huge advantage, but it takes combining that size and strength with body positioning (coming up out of your stance, hand placement, getting low, etc.) to really start seeing great results. Coaches on varying levels may not allow some of their players to rep bull rushes in practice under the misguided notion that size and strength alone will be enough for a player to translate into good bull rushing talent come gameday. Not really. Coaches Crennel and Pleasant will know this, and they’ll be sure to rep and develop Poe into a player capable of making the most out of his bull rushing capabilities.

While teaching, drilling and repping Poe through these activities on the practice field, expect for Crennel and Pleasant to also be teaching him the mental aspects of the position in the film room: what assignments he’ll have in which plays, when to clog, when to penetrate, when move X is more likely to make your assignment, and when move Y is better, etc.

One thing to bear in mind is that “trench warfare” isn’t as rudimentary as it may appear (as if you haven’t gathered that from above). On either side of the ball, each lineman possesses his own strengths and weaknesses according to his physical attributes and technical skills which affect how he plays the game. When squaring off, it takes time to figure out your competitor’s nuances and adjust accordingly (an ongoing battle, as with each adjustment you make to your competitor, your competitor will adjust to deal with your adjustments).

So, Poe’s college stats weren’t too impressive, and his tape looks “average”? Consider this: Poe likely squared off with every offensive lineman Conference USA had to offer. And with each lineman, Poe had to learn new nuances and adjust accordingly, all while facing different blocking schemes at different techniques along the line with different defensive assignments… Altogether, it makes it hard for the common observer to tell what kind of player he’ll become.

So, Poe’s college stats don’t look special. He only appears to show “flashes” in his college tape. Know this: the difficulties and intricacies of line play are greater and more plentiful than meets the eye, and are largely unappreciated by the masses. But one thing’s for sure, with his rare physical attributes, AND the opportunity to line up and take most snaps at one position, AND squaring off against fewer competitors in a game, AND being under the guidance and tutelage of both Coaches Crennel and Pleasant, Poe is much more likely to succeed than to bust.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Mike Mayock got very excited after getting a look at DT Dontari Poe’s butt.

“You guys, look at that butt … are you kidding me,” Mayock said to Warren Sapp and Mike Lombardi on the NFL Network set at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis.

If you are thinking Mayock’s mates responded with laughter and ridicule, well, you’re thinking wrong.

“That looked so good, didn’t it? Holy smokes,” responded Sapp.

“I’m sorry, I’m getting all excited,” added Mayock.

Yep. That conversation happened. Here is the rest of it.

Lombardi: “Oh … ”

Mayock: “I’m beside myself.”

Lombardi: “That butt, now that’s where you get your power from.”

The conversation comes courtesy of ESPN.com which has an entire article devoted to the powers of the athlete’s ass.

Hey, it’ s July during the All-Star break. What do you want?

The article is funny and definitely worth a look. It also contains some new/interesting information about Poe and his practices with the Chiefs during OTAs.

This summer, after he was taken 11th overall by the Chiefs, Poe spent most of his first rookie minicamp in a four-point stance. He worked for hours on uncoiling at the snap and transferring the stored energy from his hips upward, violently, into the center’s chest. When his effort lagged, Chiefs defensive line coach Anthony Pleasant reminded Poe where his power base was by slapping him, loudly, on his hubcap-size hindquarters. After one such prodding near the goal line, Poe blasted out of his stance, knocking an assistant coach woozy and halfway back to the goalpost. “That’s my anchor,” Poe says proudly. “I’ve had it since I was a kid, and I appreciate the compliments. But it’s a little strange that so many people are talking about it.”

We already knew that Poe is enormous but it is good to know he also has the tools when it comes to being able to generate power when exploding at the line. If Romeo Crennel can teach Poe to harness that power and direct it all toward opposing offensive lineman, the Chiefs could be very, very happy with their 2012 first round pick.

So, after Paddy put together a great piece on the crucial offseason question: “If Chiefs Were Characters from the Wire,” I felt it necessary to move this important thought-experiment beyond the realist, Dickensian epic about the failures of city institutions to the world of fantasy. If there are any of you out there who still haven’t gotten hooked on Game of Thrones, get on it (but watch the first two episodes before passing judgment; the first one is a bit scatter-brained).

Furthermore, if you aren’t acquainted with the show, STOP READING THIS NOW, this is going to be chalk-full of spoilers.

Tamba Hali as Sandor Clegane, “The Hound”

"I smell Philip Rivers."

Tamba Hali is a big, scary, not-particularly-pretty man. He has been loyal to the Chiefs through leadership changes, which have included a variety of eccentric characters on the throne. Although he terrifies everyone around him, everyone that serves at his side realizes he is a man of honor who lives to massacre quarterbacks – just don’t get fire anywhere near him or he’ll go all Frankenstein on you.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Todd Haley as Joffry Baratheon

"We shall go forth on 4th down a 4th time!"

Egotistical, sadistic, deluded and an awful tactician when it counts. On the plus side, um … cool crossbow?

David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Cassel as Daenerys Targaryen

"You're not just going to throw out my appendix after the surgery, right? Whew, what a waste that would have been."

Essentially sold in a marriage-trade that was meant to allow the Chiefs to reconquer Westeros, Cassel spent 2009 powerless, being repeatedly raped behind a horrid offensive line with no friends or allies to throw to. But, after facing down trials and tribulations, Cassel grew in strength and confidence, giving birth to dragons and … breaking his hand and watching his division rival ride out his team to the lost year’s best victories … this metaphor needs some work.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Casey Wiegmann as Ser Rodrik Cassel (absolutely no relation to Matt Cassel)

"Roadkill is the new black."

Old, wizened and dependable. If it wouldn’t have gotten in the way for Casey’s gameplay, these two men would have undoubtedly shared the same hairstyle as they held down the fort defending the House of Stark. However, despite their reliability, at some point, it was time for some young gun to behead them both.

Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

Jon McGraw as Tywin Lannister

"I just one deep back safetied your mom."

Although respected and decorated, these veterans have been outfoxed by younger, faster competition. However, with the game on the line, these old hands know how to pull out a victory.

Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Dwayne Bowe as Bronn

"Right back at you Cassel. No, I don't think I'm going to aim for your 'general vicinity' with this one."

Not everyone likes him, his style or his attitude. But, everyone agrees, this man is damn effective at what he does.

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Scott Pioli as Petyr Baelish “Little Finger”

"As a matter of fact, yes, I do run a whore house."

The ultimate man behind the curtain, Pioli has used his suspicious seduction and mischief to build a winning team in record time. Everyone has to watch their back around this man.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Dontari Poe as Gregor Clegane, “The Mountain”

"Ok, yes. I may have eaten one or two practice squad kickers. But, if you don't want me to eat special teamers, why do you leave them lying around all the time?!"

He is big, strong and furious. He can behead a horse with a single blow, and yet we’ve seen him do little more than lose jousts to effeminate challengers and guard a burnt-out prison camp. Will his amazing strength and power actually come to use on the battlefield?

Douglas Jones-US PRESSWIRE

Romeo Crennel as Tyrion Lannister

Seriously, why has no one made a similar mural for Crennel yet?

A master strategist with a heart of gold. While he has rarely gotten credit for his work, Crennel has been an essential part of the family and saved it from total destruction at the end of the season.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Chan Gailey as Balon Greyjoy

"I left potato salad in the workroom fridge. I will take back what is mine."

What, you don’t see the resemblance? Aside from that, these two are bitter men who live in their cold miserable bitterness in the North, waiting to strike back revenge in Week 2.

Robert Mayer-US PRESSWIRE

Derrick Johnson as Khal Drogo

"My helmet protects you."

The Horse King will hurt you, and he will do it in the most badass way available to him. But, please, Chiefs medical personnel, do not resort to black magic to cure his infections.

Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Barry Richardson as Samwell Tarly

"Time for my signature move -- Contagious Incompetence!"

Fat, whiney and utterly useless. I hope the White Walkers got ‘im at the end of last season.

Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

Well, my fellow KC Chiefs fans, welcome to the football dead zone. The stretch between the NFL Draft and the start of training camp is probably the least exciting time to be a die-hard NFL fan and definitely the hardest time to be an NFL blogger. Yes there are some interesting tidbits coming out of OTAs, but until they actually put pads on and hit somebody, everything is pretty much just speculation.

So what can we do to try and get some good old-fashioned football debates going?

Well how about we play a new game called “Tell me I’m wrong!” It’s easy, I’ll make some predictions that I 100 percent believe about the upcoming season and you tell me when you think I’m wrong. Then I’ll respond to your comment and tell you why you’re wrong for thinking that I’m wrong. It will be great, trust me (hey, it’s the offseason, what else are we going to talk about?).

Ready to play?

Here we go……

1. Stanford Routt will lead KC in interceptions.

I don’t think Routt is a better player than either Brandon Flowers or Eric Berry. However, I do think he will be the most thrown at player in the Chiefs’ secondary. My guess is that Routt may not be as consistent as Brandon Carr was, but he will make more big plays. Carr was a great cover corner but he never was a big interception guy (he averaged just two per season over his four years in KC). I think Routt will probably give up more big plays than Carr did, but will help make up for it by coming up with more big plays. Teams will be tempted to test him both because he may give up an occasional big play and because of Flowers’ great coverage skills opposite him. Plus Routt will be lined up a lot against #2 WRs (as opposed to last season in Oakland when he had to cover the other team’s #1). Because of this, I think Routt will be good for about five interceptions this coming season.

Tell me I’m wrong!

2. Amon Gordon will play more snaps at 3-4 NT this season than either of the “Po(w)e Boys”.

When the Chiefs drafted Dontari Poe with the #11 pick, most national commentators stated that Romeo Crennel would plug Poe in at NT from day one. I haven’t ever believed that to be true. I’m not bashing Poe, or even bashing the pick, just the logic that he would walk right in and be the starting NT. The NT in the Chiefs 3-4 is all about technique and leverage. Those two things happen to be two of Poe’s weakest areas coming out of college. Do I think Romeo and defensive line coach Anthony Pleasant can teach Poe the technique needed to be a starting 3-4 NT? Yes. Will it happen in one offseason? Probably not. Poe has been running with the first team nickel package, but is way down the depth chart at NT (even Anthony Toribio has gotten snaps ahead of him). So that leaves KC with either Gordon or last year’s 6th round pick Jerrell Powe as the starting NT to begin the year. I know fans are enamored of Powe, but the Chiefs have shown no signs thus far that they share that infatuation. Gordon was active over Powe all of last season and when the Chiefs base defense took the field for the first time in OTAs it was Gordon that lined up at NT. In addition, Gordon also has the versatility to play the 3-4 DE spots. So if Dorsey or Jackson were to go down mid-game the Chiefs could slide Gordon over to DE and play Dontari at NT (since he will be active for sub packages). The same could not be said for Powe who hasn’t played at all at DE or in the sub package. I won’t be surprised if Dontari Poe is the starting NT by the end of the season, but I still believe that Amon Gordon will lead the team in snaps played at NT when the season comes to an end.

Tell me I’m wrong!

3. Undrafted FA Josh Bellamy will beat out seventh round draft pick Junior Hemingway for the final WR spot.

I stated before that there really isn’t much that you can take from OTAs other than speculation. I think Josh Bellamy may be an exception. In Romeo’s presser following the undrafted player tryouts, Bellamy was the first player he mentioned when talking about players that got his attention. Then in this OTA update by the Kansas City Star’s Adam Teicher it mentions that with Bowe holding out and Baldwin missing a practice, Bellamy got a few reps with the first string (with no mention of Hemingway). Finally, in this locker room interview, Josh Looney talks about how Bellamy has experience playing defensive back and how that defensive experience helps him to excel on special teams. If Bellamy has flashed more as a WR thus far AND has a leg up on Hemingway on ST (where the last WR will see most of their action) I think Bellamy may be the clear favorite at this point despite the fact that Hemingway was drafted and Bellamy was not.

Tell me I’m wrong!

4. Peyton Hillis will finish the year with 100 more touches than Jamaal Charles.

I love Jamaal Charles. I think he is the most talented player on the team. That having been said, he has a small frame for a NFL running back and is coming off major knee surgery. The Chiefs previously were careful with Charles’ workload and that was before his knee injury. When the season begins, I wouldn’t be surprised if Charles only averaged 8-12 touches per game until the Chiefs start to feel comfortable that he is full strength. If the Chiefs are a run first team that could leave a solid 15-20 touches for Hillis. Plus, Hillis has proven in the past that he is a good receiver out of the back field so the Chiefs don’t have to take him off the field in passing downs. If the Chiefs let an ineffective Thomas Jones have more carries than a healthy Charles; I can’t imagine they wouldn’t let a more effective Hillis carry the load while they slowly bring Charles back. Over the course of 16 games 100 touches would only be an average of 6.25 touches per game.

Tell me I’m wrong!

5. Jonathan Baldwin will play well enough this season that the Chiefs will let Dwayne Bowe walk in free agency next offseason.

Part of the “Patriot Way” has always been knowing when to let a player go. Whether it was cutting Lawyer Milloy, trading Richard Seymour, or releasing Randy Moss, the Patriots have never been afraid to move on. Dwayne Bowe is an incredibly talented player who has always had a bit of a reputation as a “knuckle head.” Bowe may be wanting a huge long-term deal like the one Vincent Jackson signed this offseason, but I just don’t see Pioli giving him that kind of money. Listen to Pioli talk about the scouting process they use on draft picks. He always talks about the players’ “make up” and how they will mentally handle the NFL life and having millions of dollars in their pocket. Ask yourself this, would Pioli have been comfortable drafting Dwayne Bowe out of college based on those criteria? I don’t think he would have. The only way I see him giving Bowe big money is if he thinks he has no choice. Enter Jon Baldwin. Baldwin was a first-round pick by Pioli. He missed time last year on top of having a shortened offseason. Already in OTAs he is getting noticed for highlight-reel, big play catches. If Baldwin can carry that over to the regular season and looks like a #1 caliber WR, that is bad news for those wanting Bowe to stay in KC long term. I’d love to see both Baldwin and Bowe in KC long term, but if KC remains a run-first team they simply don’t need two #1 WRs. I think Jon Baldwin will show himself to be that caliber of player this year and give Pioli the leverage to let Dwayne Bowe walk.

Tell me I’m wrong!

6. Matt Cassel will silence his critics (well, at least some of them) by having his best season in KC.

I already made my case for Matt Cassel in my piece last week. The basis of my argument is this: Every time Cassel has had a good run game and at least an average defense he has put up good results. I think he has a chance to have the best defense of his career this coming year and if Jamaal Charles is healthy then KC could very well lead the league in rushing again. Plus, if you look at Cassel’s WRs in 2010 when he put up good numbers and even made the Pro Bowl (as an alternate), they were horrible after Dwayne Bowe. The additions of Steve Breaston, Jon Baldwin, and even Devon Wylie should mean Cassel has a significantly better core of WRs than he did in 2010. Plus, no one can question Cassel’s work ethic and you know that in the face of all the criticism he’s faced he will do everything possible to prove his critics wrong. I believe everything is lining up for Cassel to have his best season in KC.

Tell me I’m wrong!

So there you go, Addicts, I’ve given you loads of ammo to fuel a good debate in the comments section. Surely one of these made you go, “No Way That Happens!!!!” So let me have it in the comments. I look forward to hearing about how wrong I am.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I should preface this post by saying that I do not reside within the cerebral cortex of Romeo Crennel and Brian Daboll. I do not know that they will do any or all of these things, but I do think that if they don’t at least try some of them, we will have missed some opportunities this coming season.

1.) DeQuan Menzie as MLB.

One of the many sets that Crennel likes to run in pass-defense sub packages is loading up on D-backs and replacing one ILB – Belcher, obviously – with a safety to cover any RBs coming out of the flat or TEs on crossing patterns. Throughout the 2011 season this was almost always McGraw – a veteran with good instincts who is a good tackler and will be read his man well. This is one of the many packages that was great at confusing and disrupting opposing offenses, and led to brilliant defensive victories like the one over the undefeated Packers.

However, it was also exploited at times with teams audibling to a dive play and running a power back straight up at McGraw. While he is normally a good open-field tackler, he got trucked on a couple of those because he just doesn’t have the body mass to make a thud against a big back bursting through the hole. Enter DeQuan Menzie.

John David Mercer-US PRESSWIRE

Menzie comes from the hard-nosed Alabama defense where he often played close to the line. While he’s not huge, he is on the heavy side for a safety, and showed on tape that he could power through wide receiver blocks and would likely do well as both a mean guy following RBs and TEs in the short passing game, and also standing tall against backs plowing through the hole. The case has been made that Eric Berry would be good in that role, but I think he is greatest as an asset to us on passing downs with his ability to take over center field and play the deep ball.

2.) Three-headed RB Monster: Jamaal Charles-Peyton Hillis-Dexter McCluster

With the Chiefs’ top three RBs, they have three very different and complementary ball-carriers. Charles has the speed and vision to break big ones anytime. Hillis is a pounder who can get away from you if he gets a bit of space, and McCluster has the spark to hit the hole fast and can make things happen in the open field. Having all three of these guys on the field simply presents too many plays to contemplate.

US PRESSWIRE

If Daboll fields Charles, Hillis, McCluster, Moeaki and Boss, what package will the defense put out there? The fact is that there is no right answer because with those guys, you could do some power running with Hillis as a lead blocker for Charles/McCluster or you could do also sorts of sophisticated pitches, reverses and screens. Or, you could motion a TE out wide and throw from it. It’s hard to imagine a better goal-line set; the Chiefs will inevitably find favorable matchups. Daboll has made a name for himself being a mad scientist in drawing up plays. I have a feeling he is going to have fun with these guys.

3.) Splitting Hillis out wide

As I mentioned in my feature on Hillis a few weeks back, I noted he is really much more than the plodding pounder he is reputed to be. In fact, he is a great pass-catcher:

His one drop among 61 catches in 2010 made him the third most consistent receiving RB in the league. Most importantly for QB Matt “Panic Toss” Cassel, Hillis hauled in 90 percent of all passes thrown at him in 2010 – on target or not. Then, he had 453 yards after the catch.

Granted, Daboll was often using Hillis as a wideout primarily because Cleveland had/has quite possibly the worst wide-receiving corps in the league. Still, this guy has hands, great body control, good ups and holds on to the ball. Watch 2:10 of these highlights for this amazing catch from 2010 against the Falcons – it’s reminiscent of Moeaki’s stunning grab against the 49ers that year (he’s got another great one at 2:55). Heck, it might even be interesting to see him lined up at TE, despite the fact we already have two good ends.

4.) Poe at DE, in coverage

While we still don’t totally know what we are going to get out of Poe at this point, we do know that Crennel is going to move him around. Initially billed as a run-stuffer, Crennel has been trying to coach him up as a pass rusher. If he develops as both, I think the Chiefs will want to move him to whatever part of the opposing offensive line is the weakest. If that team has a Barry Richardson on their starting roster, we will find him and put a monster of a man right on top of him. Also, given Poe’s ability to crash down and take out blockers, he could be a great lead-man for an unbalanced blitz. Let him cut down his double team on one of the edges as Houston, Hali and DJ rush through to get at the QB.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Another thing that Crennel was successful with in New England was getting Vince Wilfork to step back in to zone coverage every now and then. It sounds crazy – and it is – but opposing offenses never see it coming. Heck, Wilfork even had two interceptions last year. While I don’t expect Poe to be a ball hawk or to be able to cover Gronkowski man-to-man or any silliness like that, using him this way would still have some major benefits. 1.) Having him step off suddenly puts the opposing offensive line in disarray up the middle in a way that can be exploited as they figure out whom to shift to and block. 2.) If you’re worried about a speedy TE being able to pick up too much speed off the line and want to slow him down has he crosses through the middle, Poe putting his 349-pound shoulder into him will sure accomplish that.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Although Romeo Crennel’s proven track record against Payton Manning may make Chiefs fans cautiously optimistic when the team meets the Broncos this season, it may well be KC’s first found draft pick Dontari Poe that enables Crennel to work his magic.

Crennel has had a lot of experience dealing with Manning. During his days at the defensive coordinator in New England, it seemed every season featured at least one marquee playoff matchup between the Colts and Patriots.

And Crennel’s team generally came out on top.

Though Crennel has had success at forcing Manning to play below his average, he won’t be facing the same Peyton Manning in 2012. Manning is now a member of the Broncos and while Denver will likely adopt a lot of the same types of plays Manning ran in Indy, it is unlikely the Chiefs will see a carbon copy of the Colts offenses of old. Chances are, the Broncos will run a combination of Manning’s offense and the offense the Broncos ran last year with Tim Tebow. We probably won’t see Manning running the option this season but the Broncos favored a run-heavy attack in 2011 and they probably won’t toss all that out the window.

In fact, the Broncos under Manning could feature a very dangerous balanced attack. Don’t be surprised if John Elway starts popping in the tape of Denver’s Super Bowl runs featuring himself and Terrell Davis.

To combat that, the Chiefs will need to do more than just load the field with DBs to disrupt the Denver passing attack. They’re going to need to stop the run.

In 2011, the Chiefs struggled when teams ran against their nickel set. That is because the team’s two best run-stuffers, Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey, were usually on the sidelines thanks to their futility in the pass rushing department.

Poe could change all that.

Early in OTA’s, the Chiefs have Poe playing strictly in sub-packages while favoring Amon Gordon at the nose when they are in their base set. If Poe continues to develop, however, he’s likely to see snaps on first and second downs as well.

If Crennel is going to feature a lot of DB’s then he’s going to need Poe to do a solid job of eating up space in the middle when the Broncos try to run. If Poe can do that, he’ll force runners outside so KC’s athletic corners can make plays. In short, Poe needs to be a human black hole in the middle of KC’s defense, sucking up blocks and ball carriers every time they go near him.

Easier said than done, especially for a rookie in need of “coaching up.”

Still, the Chiefs gambled on Poe for a reason. The Chiefs won’t face the Broncos until later in the year and that should give Poe plenty of time to develop.

The question is, will he be ready?

First off, an explanation of how I am approaching this: I don’t look at this list as the 10 most productive players necessarily, but rather how important they are to the team and how much their loss would be felt. This is not a list of the Chiefs best players. A way of looking at it is, “who could we least afford to lose to a season-ending injury.”

1.) OLB Tamba Hali

This one may be a shocker right out of the gates. I know many people would put RB Jamaal Charles as the most important player to the Chiefs if they want to make a playoff run, but I get to differ. The Chiefs still managed to come within a blocked field goal of the playoffs without JC (and a whole lot else) last season. The Chiefs still had the 15^th best rushing attack last year behind Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster – not an inspiring bunch.

However, the Chiefs also only had 29 sacks (3^rd least in the league) – 12 of which were Tamba Hali. Hali also probably deserves an assist on most of the other sacks that Chiefs players racked up, as opposing teams shifted their pass blocking to eliminate the pressure from #91. OLB Justin Houston should continue to up his game this year, but it’s hard to know how many sacks he would have gotten in 2011 if teams weren’t so focused on Hali. One thing we know for sure – if Hali goes down, our pass rush will be less than half as effective as it is when he is on the field.

Tamba Hali tackles Chiefs -- err -- Broncos Quarterback Kyle Orton, forcing a fumble in the process.John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Furthermore, the AFC West quarterbacking got a heck of a lot better this year. We won’t be playing against FB Tim Tebow twice a year, Rivers will surely bounce back from his worst season on record, and we won’t be so lucky as to catch Carson Palmer straight off the couch. We’re going to be playing Peyton Manning, Rivers and Palmer in late-season games for the division title. We will need Hali for that, hands down.

2.) SS Eric Berry

To my great surprise, the Chiefs have not addressed the team’s dreadful safety depth with anything more than a 5^th-round CB who projects to the position and a handful of low-level journeymen and UFA’s. Berry going down last year spelled doom for the Chiefs defensive backfield, despite the fact that we have very talented corners. McGraw is dependable as a smart, slow veteran, but with both he and Berry out of the line up, Kendrick Lewis cannot make up the difference. The idea that Donald Washington might see the field for anything other than special teams this season keeps me awake at night.

3.) LT Brandon Albert

Our tackle depth is a mystery right now. While the Chiefs have a bunch of young bodies behind their bookends with Albert and Winston, there are no proven commodities among them. While LT’s are generally looked at as the guys who keep their QB’s healthy, Albert has also been vital to the Chiefs’ run blocking. The team was massively better running to the left than the right last year. If Albert were to go down, they would likely move Winston to LT, a position he is not ideally suited for, and we would be leaving a question mark at RT that could very likely be worse than Barry Richardson – as hard as that is to imagine.

4.) CB Brandon Flowers

What? Three out of the top four are defensive players? But our defense was strong and our offense was weak! True. But, with the exception of the Chiefs, the AFC West is going to be a passing division in 2012. Rivers is poised for a bounce-back, Peyton Manning is in Denver, and Oakland is going to be forced to pass due to the fact that they now have bad running back depth and they will be in shootouts with opponents because their pass defense was decimated in the offseason.

I still think Berry is more important than Flowers overall to the Chiefs pass defense, but losing Flowers would also put KC in a pinch. I am high on Routt, but he did not fair well as the #1 CB in Oakland and Javier Arenas and Jalil Brown should really stay in the slot. Travis Daniels could fill in for a game of two as the #2 CB, but he’s not athletic and would be a liability long-term.

5.) WR Dwayne Bowe

Jon Baldwin has yet to prove he can take on the #1 role. The Cassel-to-Bowe connection remains the entire passing offense.

6.) RB Jamaal Charles

Finally, you’re thinking, he gets around to mentioning our franchise player. I put Charles 6^th because we unfortunately don’t know what we’re getting out of him this year and because the Chiefs now have killer RB depth. Our offense is indisputably more dangerous with him on the field, but we will be able to soldier on without him. Still, out of the ‘backs in the Chiefs stables, he is the only one with true home-run ability and that is something that the offense lacks all around. If the Chiefs want to be a contender, we have to make some big plays.

7.) QB Matt Cassel

He may not be Canton-bound, but he can be very productive with the guys the Chiefs have on the roster. Quinn has been inconsistent in his career and Stanzi is a mystery box.

8.) LB Derrick Johnson

Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

DJ is the rock to the Chiefs’ defense. He’s a tackling machine and is a mean run-stuffer. He also can be counted on to make 1-2 phenomenal head’s-up plays per game.

9.) RT Eric Winston

Winston is here for the same reasons as Albert — he would be extremely difficult to replace. But, we also need to him to cover the Chiefs right side because effective pass blocking there will allow Moeaki and Boss to release and be additional targets for Cassel or to block downfield for Charles and Hillis.

10.) NT Dontari Poe

While I don’t think expectations should be too high, I’m betting that Poe ends up contributing for us this season. If we don’t get production out of Poe we will be relying on Amon Gordon – a decent starter at DE, but a substandard NT. Poe has the chance to make the entire defense stronger, or weaker.

Well, Chiefs fans, isn’t it nice to talk about football that is actually taking place on a field and not just offseason hypotheticals? Granted, it may just be OTAs and they may not be wearing full pads or hitting anybody, but last week, the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs actually took the field together. So I thought it was my duty to make my weekly post about what took place (and will take place) on the field.

First, let’s look at what we might have learned already from one week of OTAs.

#1. The Chiefs need another quality safety on the roster.

When the Chiefs’ first-string defense took the field last week, their starting safeties were a CB and an undrafted rookie free agent. I could probably just stop right there, but let me elaborate just a little. All signs point to both starting safeties Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis being fully healthy for the start of the season and the Chiefs seem to have plans for fifth-round pick De’Quan Menzie at safety as well, so hopefully by the time the first preseason game rolls around, the safety situation will already look much better just because of the players that will be back.

That having been said, last year the depth at safety was exposed and the Chiefs would be foolish if they didn’t make strides to remedy this. Travis Daniels is a quality #3-4 CB, but he shouldn’t be starting at safety. Terrance Parks was the rookie that started next to Daniels. He’s an undrafted rookie out of Florida State. Now, I am excited by the fact that the Chiefs started Parks over veteran Donald Washington. It means one of two things: Either the Chiefs think they have found a hidden treasure in Parks, or they have realized that Donald Washington is horrible. Either option is good in my book.

Now, I wouldn’t get too excited about Parks just yet. I did some digging and couldn’t find ANY good scouting reports on Parks. NFL Draft Scout had 70 safeties listed in their database for this years draft and Parks wasn’t one of them. Nothing at Draft Tek or Draft Countdown either. This guy wasn’t seen as good enough to even warrant a profile on the major draft/scouting sites. To his credit though, he is playing ahead of two other undrafted safety prospects in Neiko Thorpe and Tysyn Hartman that were at least on the radar of most major scouting services. FSU’s website lists Parks at 6’2″, 215 lbs. and describes him as a “big, physical safety.” Maybe the Chiefs like Parks in the hybrid LB/S role that Jon McGraw played in the nickel packages.

One question I do have about the safety position going forward is where exactly they see De’Quan Menzie playing? Do they see him in McGraw’s role? Do they want him to compete with Arenas in the nickel? Is he just a backup for Berry and Lewis?

Regardless, the Chiefs continue to bring in veteran free agent safeties so I think it is a safe bet that the Chiefs see a hole in the roster at this position as well.

#2. Dontari Poe will contribute in sub packages even if he isn’t ready to start at NT.

Word quickly spread mid week that Dontari Poe was already running with the first team thanks to a tweet from the Chiefs PR guy Josh Looney. However, this initial report was a little misleading. Poe wasn’t running with the first team at NT. He was running with the first team in the sub package. Basically, Poe was filling the hole left by the Chiefs not re-signing Wallace Gilberry. Now, I’m not saying that this is a bad thing at all. The Chiefs used their sub package a little less than 50 percent of the time so you can make a case that making an impact as a pass rusher in the sub package is just as important as making an impact at NT.

If you think about it, this makes sense. Playing NT in the KC version of the 3-4 takes very good technique. Without going into specifics, the short version is that you have to be able to anchor yourself against double teams and hold your ground so that you can plug the gaps on both sides of the center. Think about it this way: two average NFL linemen weigh a combined 600 lbs., even at an impressive 350 lbs. Poe is still at a 250 pound disadvantage when double teamed. Without the proper technique he’ll get pushed around. However, in the sub package sets, Poe’s job will be to push the pocket from the interior. Yes, this involves some technique, but it will be much more conducive to him using his natural freakish athleticism. The good news for KC fans is that even if Poe needs MAJOR work on his technique (as many have feared) it appears he will still have an important way he can contribute from day one.

While we’re on the topic of the NT, there is one other thing we learned from OTAs. Amon Gordon is still ahead of Jerrell Powe. Powe is a fan favorite. The guy just looks the part of an NFL NT. Many had hoped that the Chiefs only had Gordon on the active roster ahead of Powe last season because he could also back up the 3-4 DE spots. But with Kelly Gregg gone and the “new Poe” still learning the position, this would be a perfect time for “old Powe” to run with the first string at NT. It didn’t happen. I would love to see Powe succeed and if both of the “Po Boys” turned into difference makers it would be great for KC. I just think all the “Po Boys” supporters had better brace themselves for the fact that neither of them may be the starting NT for week one. If I had to put money on who the starter for the opener would be I would go with Gordon. The Chiefs website lists Gordon at only 305 lbs. compared to Powe’s 335 lbs., but as you can see from this screen shot from a recent kcchiefs.com video it looks like there may not be that big of difference anymore (Gordon is 99, Powe is 95). Gordon did flash some ability while backing up Gregg, so I would be okay with him holding down the fort until Poe is ready.

#3. The additions of Peyton Hillis and Brady Quinn benefit the entire offense.

In addition to any production these players give the Chiefs on the field this fall, their additions have benefited the Chiefs already this offseason while they are installing Brian Daboll’s new offense. Having two players that are already comfortable in his system helps the other players to pick it up. Hillis himself mentioned how he is able to help his teammates with the new playbook. I don’t know if Quinn will ever see the field, but I see Hillis playing a major role. I think when all is said and done, the Peyton Hillis signing will look like one of the best of the Scott Pioli era.

Another side note on Quinn, since he has the advantage of already knowing the system it would be a major upset if Ricky Stanzi beats him out for the #2 QB spot. I suspect the order will be Cassel, Quinn, Stanzi, but if Stanzi fights his way into the #2 spot I will take that as a sign that the Chiefs really like what they are seeing and could bring hope to those that would like to see him develop into the starter down the road.

#4. Eric Winston is fully healthy.

This was never a huge concern and wasn’t talked about very much in the KC media. While KC fans were celebrating the Winston signing, I read on some Texans fan sites that many Houston fans were speculating that part of the reason they released him (in addition to his salary cap number) was that they were concerned that he wasn’t fully healthy. At the time I dismissed it as Houston fans trying to reason away the loss of such a good player. However, when the Chiefs drafted OL in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft a small warning alarm did go off in the back of my mind. Why others speculated that Stephenson was a possible replacement for Albert, I wondered to myself if he was a back up plan in case Winston did have some injury issues. That alarm was silenced this week when Winston was a full participant in OTAs. The Chiefs basically help out anyone with so much as a hang nail, so the fact that Winston was out there the whole time tells me they have no injury concerns with him. The additions of Winston and Hillis combined with the return of Jamaal Charles (who tweeted this week that despite his ACL injury he still thinks he’s the fastest player on the team) should make the Chiefs one of the top rushing teams in the NFL next year.

Now it’s time for some of the questions I have as the offseason program continues.

#1. After Hali and Houston is there anyone else on the roster that can get to the QB?

Hopefully, Dontari Poe can provide some interior pass rush, but other than Poe the Chiefs didn’t add a single player to improve their ability to get to the QB. The Chiefs finished tied for the third fewest sacks in the NFL last year. I have hope that Houston will step forward, but if either he or Hali miss time due to injury they will have to have someone else step up and get to the QB. Andy Studebaker has looked like an average all around LB during his limited playing time, but not a big pass rush threat. That pretty much leaves Cameron Sheffield and Gabe Miller as the only other options on the roster. So keep an eye on those two as the offseason goes forward to see if either man is up for the task.

#2. Is Brandon Siler healthy, and if so, can he challenge Jovan Belcher?

One of the main positions that the Chiefs did not address in the draft that many fans wanted them to was ILB. Despite some of our claims that Belcher is doing a fine job, many fans would like to see him pushed out of the starting lineup. About the only player capable of doing that currently on the roster is Brandon Siler. Siler missed all of last season and did not participate in OTAs last week. Wether this was just a safety precaution, or if Siler is still not able to go, we just don’t know. So keep an eye on Siler’s health and spot on the depth chart as the offseason progresses.

#3. What are the Chiefs going to do at FB this season?

The Chiefs let Le’Ron McClain walk without any kind of reports surfacing that they were trying to resign him. To date, I have not heard any reports about the Chiefs bringing in veteran FBs for tryouts. That tells me that the Chiefs are comfortable with what they currently have on the roster. Last year they drafted Shane Bannon out of Yale in the 7th round. Now, 7th rounders are usually a long shot to make the team, but FBs are an exception. Typically, if you use ANY draft pick on a FB, he’s your guy. So my guess would be that its Bannon’s job to lose. The only other options (assuming that Daboll plans on using a typical FB) are undrafted rookie Taylor Gentry and Peyton Hillis. Hillis does have FB experience, but I also see him as the “Thunder” to JC’s “Lightning” and typically when you have your “Thunder” back on the field you put a FB in front of them, so I don’t see Hillis being the only FB option on the game day active roster. There is a very cool inspirational video on Gentry that makes me want to pull for him going forward (seriously, check it out), but my guess is that Bannon is the guy this year.

#4. How will the WR depth chart shake out?

I for one, have no doubts that Dwayne Bowe will be ready to go for the regular season and will put up typical Bowe numbers. I think its safe to say that Jonathan Baldwin and Steve Breaston will also be major contributors. After that is where things get interesting. The Chiefs played former 2nd round pick Dexter McCluster at WR this last week. My guess is that we’ll see a little of Dex at both RB and WR as Daboll tries to keep defenses on their toes. Dex may not be a huge part of the offense, but unlike Evan Silva of Pro Football Talk who said he may not even make the team this year, I don’t think he is fighting for a roster spot. Dex will be on the team, I just don’t know how many reps he’ll get. The Chiefs also used a 4th round pick this season on Devon Wylie. Wylie seems to be a true slot WR with the best break away speed on the team, so he should get some reps as well.

That’s 5 WRs that I feel safe saying will contribute some. That could leave just one more spot (two max) for WRs. Terrance Copper has been a mainstay on the Chiefs since Pioli came to town. He’s a great special teams player and just this week Romeo said of his performance in OTAs that “Copper just makes touchdown catches”. The Chiefs also drafted Junior Hemingway, so he’s clearly an option as well. Josh Bellamy did well enough at the rookie camp that Crennel singled him out as someone that flashed some real ability. Here is a youtube highlight video of Bellamy who looks like he has some potential. I think Jeremy Horne is probably out of chances and recently signed Aaron Weaver and fellow undrafted rookie Brandon Kinnie are probably the ultimate long shots. I for one will be keeping a close eye on the WR position as well because I think the battle for the last WR on the 53 man roster could be a good one.

So there you have it Addicts. That’s what I’ve learned from one week of OTAs and the questions I still have going forward. I’ll also pass along this tidbit for those looking for every possible detail coming out of OTAs, a recent post at Arrowhead Pride shared some tweets from Nick Jacobs of Metro Sports. The post is a good collection of his observations from OTAs and I would highly recommend following him on twitter if you want more of these tidbits going forward. He’s got an interesting one on who Matt Cassel worked with this offseason and that he thinks its clearly helped him.

So how about you guys? Have you learned anything from OTAs so far? Do you have other major questions going forward? I’d love to hear your thoughts.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs made what many are calling the most interesting and risky pick in this year’s NFL draft when they selected NT Dontari Poe out of Memphis.

The move was not especially popular among Chiefs fans, though after hearing the coaches talk about Poe, some fans seem to be warming to the pick. The Chiefs have long been searching for a nose tackle to be the centerpiece of their 3-4 defense and listening to Crennel talk about Poe, it may be that they’ve finally found him.

“He’s been good,” Crennel said in a press conference last week. “He’s learning and he’s trying to do what we’re coaching him to do. That’s the biggest thing, being able to assimilate into our system is going to be critical and it looks like he’s more than willing to try and do it the way we want to do it.”

Recently the Chiefs have been taking their nose tackle out when they go to their sub-package to bring in pass rushers. With Poe, however, Crennel sees a player with the potential to play all three downs.

“I will not say that he has the ability to help us out more with the pass rush or run,” Crennel said. “He has enough ability to help us out with both of them. It just depends on how quickly he picks up our system and how he does on the field.”

For a team that has had poor luck drafting defensive lineman in the past, the Chiefs could really benefit from Poe getting off to a fast start. For a defense that could be among the best in the NFL in 2012, Poe could be just what the doctor ordered.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City Chiefs first round draft pick Dontari Poe appears to have won the starting role at NT during the first week of OTAs.

Poe did not start out running with the first team. When the team began OTAs, Amon Gordon lined up with the starters.

This doesn’t necessarily mean Poe won’t be moved back and forth with the first and second team but it is an important step mainly because of something head coach Romeo Crenel said earlier this offseason. When asked about whether Poe would be a starter from day one, Crennel said that the rookie would have to show him something before he was moved into the starting lineup. Crennel said that he liked rookies to earn their spots rather than be handed them. It was then noted by a reporter that safety Eric Berry was moved into the starting lineup after only one day.

“That’s all it took,” Crennel replied.

Poe didn’t make the move quite as fast as Berry but doing it in his first week isn’t bad.

“We were working on subs, so I think that helped to elevate him in that respect,” head coach Romeo Crennel said told reporters.

Look, we all know Poe is going to start this season so this shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. I actually find it quite refreshing coming off the Todd Haley era of depth chart mind games.

Crennel doesn’t appear to be the type to suffer fools and that is just fine with me. Get Poe in there and get him as much practice as possible against the best competition possible so that when the snaps count, he’ll be ready.

It’s that time of year – the time of year when there’s not really much to talk about in football, but we’re all the more starved for content about it. This is the time of year when sports commentators, myself included, spout mostly hypothetical nonsense and rehash the same offseason moves over and over.

Lucky for the Chiefs, there are no big celebrity players on our squad, but that doesn’t mean we are not going to be bombarded by “news” pieces about Tebow’s new pair of shoes or Tony Romo’s Caribbean vacation. Speaking for myself, I’m also too young to care about the Hall of Fame and too much of a cynic to care much about NFL players’ personal charities and community outreach. They all do it, it’s all heart-warming and we never really find out if any actually does any good. Part of the quid pro quo between sports reporters and players is that the reporters will hype players’ charities in the offseason and whenever else possible, and those players give good anonymous trash talk about their fellow players and coaches (especially if the target is Mark Sanchez).

So, although the fact that you are reading this means that you, like me, are still going to be inhaling ever bit of Chiefs news this offseason regardless of how useless it is, I’m going to give you a primer for articles to avoid (including those written by me).

These are the top stories you’ll be plenty sick of by the time real football starts up again.

1.) Any story with a headline ending in a question mark.

As a journalist by trade, this has always been one of my pet peeves. Generally, any headline ending in a question mark is shorthand for “filler article.” If the central thesis of the piece is so flimsy to scrutiny that you can’t even write it without a typographic shrug, then why are you writing it in the first place?

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

2.) Can Matt Cassel take this team to greatness?

Will it rain October 13, 2017? No one knows. This, of course, is why the question never goes away. Every Chiefs fan knows the score. Cassel has given us one and a half bad seasons, one good season and performed well for another team that was probably the best in the league at the time. The overall roster around Cassel is better this year. Everyone knows this is Cassel’s make or break season in KC.

But, Cassel is also well-respected in the locker room, which means that unless he undergoes a major personality change or a sudden and inexplicable drop in his athletic ability this summer, we are going to hear nothing but positive reviews about him coming out of Arrowhead. Therefore, we will have no more real evidence in this discussion until preseason begins in August. Lyle put together a great historical comparison of Cassel to other quarterbacks in similar situations, which makes the most positive fact-based case I’ve seen for Cassel thus far. But, even then, it relies on how other players performed. Every player is different. And, given how the goings-on at Arrowhead are more guarded than nuclear secrets, my bet is we will learn exactly zilch about Cassel’s ability in the next 16 weeks.

3.) Will Charles and Moeaki bounce back from injuries?

Will it rain October 14, 2017? This is also a subject on which we are likely to hear nothing but manically positive news until the preseason begins (which they likely won’t play in anyway). Coaches, agents and the players themselves are never going to come out and say, “Yeah, I’m really behind schedule on my recovery,” or “Yeah, I definitely don’t have professional speed anymore.”

There are only three things we need concern ourselves with on this subject – 1.) Neither have shown lasting or degrading effects from previous injuries 2.) Because they were injured so early last year, they are well within the recovery times for ACL tears to be able to come back full strength by opening day and 3.) This time around at least, we have the depth at their positions to overcome their absence.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

4.) Will Dontari Poe live up to his physical potential?

Ask me in three years. Seriously. This guy is a major project, and unless he learns his position in record time and stuns the pants off the coaches, he will probably be a rotational player throughout the 2012 season. As much as we have all whined about the success rate of Chiefs first-round DTs, Glenn Dorsey has quietly developed into a top run stuffer and Tyson Jackson has shown the willingness to trim his salary down to something more accurately representing his production. Thanks to the CBA, Poe’s contract won’t kill us at least, and if he is among the 50 percent of first-round-picks that bust, we will march on.

There is only one thing we can be certain about with Dontari Poe – we won’t know how good he is this year, and probably not next year either. Even if he has a great season, he’ll likely regress or at least face a sophomore slump.

Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

5.) Will Bowe get extended?

This is the only one of the five above that I think is actually a legitimate discussion to be had. If Bowe wants Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson money, do we keep him? We’re paying him less than $10 million this year with the franchise tag, but if he wants a long-term deal with an annual salary in the teens, then the decision is less obvious. At the same time, don’t expect this to get done until midway through the season at the earliest. The two biggest factors in whether or not Bowe gets a deal are going to be the offense’s overall production with or without him, and the development of Jonathan Baldwin. If Baldwin has a breakout season and shows the ability of being a #1 receiver (which I think is highly unlikely, this season anyway) then I bet Pioli allows Bowe to test the market. If the Chiefs are tearing up the league and appear playoff-bound halfway through the year, the front office might feel like it makes sense to try and lock up Bowe early, because his value will only increase once he’s making clutch catches in post-season games.

Still, with so many variables and the fact that Bowe has already said that he will not hold out through training camp, this question is both unanswerable and somewhat irrelevant at this point. However, that does not mean we won’t be hearing about it. We are going to hear a lot about Bowe and the contract negotiations in the coming months but I’ll eat a shoe if they actually sign anything before the season begins. Mark my words.

So, that’s what I anticipate I’ll be sick of hearing about by the time we actually see some football played. Am I missing anything?

I’m quite certain that right about now most of you are getting pretty frothy about all the undrafted rookie free agents the Chiefs are looking at and/or signing so I’ll apologize up front if my offering today takes away from such unbridled excitement. Nevertheless, I am what I am and I do what I do.  So if you’ve been feeling a little neglected, perhaps even frustrated, as a result of going without my statistical emissions for awhile, today I render unto you an opportunity to once again revel in statistical bliss. Yep, the cold, hard, analytical world of Double D is back. Jones away.

What got me started on all this was a recommended reading link from Mike Tanier over at Football Outsiders. The name of the site is Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services. Maybe some of you are already familiar with the Ourlads folks but discovering it was all fresh to me. Long story short, on the home page of Ourlads I happened across a pdf link under the heading of “Relevance Of The Combine”, penned by Joe Landers back in 2009. Hmm, thought I.

In a nutshell, Landers compiled and studied combine results for all positions over a 4 year span, 2005 through 2008, to see whether, or to what degree, combine performance was an indicator of future success in the NFL.  His leading definition of success was whether the prospect played 1^st team during the 2008 season. What he determined, among other things and perhaps not surprisingly, is that certain measurables tend to be more important than others relative to each position.  For example, doing well in the 40 yard dash, broad jump, and vertical jump appear to be important for the wide receiver position as predictors of future NFL success.

The foundational element of Landers analysis was to calculate peer averages for each attribute test at each position. He then compared a prospect’s performance to the peer average for that position and simply came up with a metric he termed “Exceeded Peer Average” or EPA for short.  What he essentially learned was that, depending upon position, if a prospect landed in the right EPA bucket(s), and padded on enough extra EPAs in other, less important, attribute tests that the odds of that prospect making 1^st team were noticeably greater.

After wading through and understanding Landers’ analysis, the obvious next step for yours truly was of course to see how well the Chiefs’ 2012 draft class fared against their peers and what players to feel most hopeful about. Right?

Let’s begin with our #1 draft pick shall we?

At the DT position, Landers notes that there were 5 prospects who EPA’d in all 6 attribute tests for that position. In 2008, all 5 of those prospects were starters. Interestingly enough, DT turns out to be the only position where exceeding the peer average on all metrics for the position ultimately translated into a starting job.  

The rest of the breakdown goes like this:  12% of prospects with 5 EPAs started, 11% with 4 EPAs started, 12% with 3 EPAs started, 12% with 2 EPAs started, 14% with 1 EPAs started, and 11% with no EPAs started. All in all, short of scoring 6 EPAs, exceeding peer averages at the combine does not appear to be a very good indicator that a DT is likely to become a starter. Still, Landers goes on to note that the risk of bust decreases for DTs who score in the 3 to 5 EPA range, wherein the odds are fairly good for a prospect scoring in that range to at least be either 2 Deep or on the roster. Landers ultimately forecasts future success for a DT prospect to most likely involve an EPA in the 3 cone and in at least 4 other categories.

Using Landers numbers from his 2005 to 2008 dataset (which have probably changed moderately), the peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages for DTs were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.61 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.67 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 30.10”; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 106”; 52% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.11 sec; 61% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 26.43; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

From this, Landers surmised that an EPA score in the 3 Cone test appears to be the most important indicator of all for DTs wherein 65% of 2008 starters achieved the EPA level as prospects.  Not really too surprising given the need for quickness within close confines that is typically demanded by this position.

Okay so given all that, how did Dontari Poe score relative to his peers? Well, before I answer that question, I think it is probably important and fair to take into consideration that the average weight of a DT prospect is around 305 lbs wherein Poe weighed in at 346 lbs. In other words, Landers does not distinguish between the typically bigger NTs versus typically smaller 43 DTs. To paraphrase Sir Isaac Newton, gravity is such a drag. More on that later.

Dontari Poe’s results were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.56 sec; EPA

Three Cone: 7.9 sec

Vertical Jump: 29.5”

Broad Jump: 105”

Forty Yard Dash: 4.98 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 44; EPA

 In summary, Poe scored EPAs in 3 metrics, which Landers views as respectable, but came up a bit short in the most important of all, the 3 Cone Drill. So what can we take away from all this?

While it might add to our optimism to know that Dontari Poe exceeded peer averages on all 6 metrics, or at least on the 3 cone and 4 other categories, the reality is that Dontari Poe is a signficantly larger guy than the average member of his peer group. Put simply, he has about 40 extra pounds to lug around compared to the average DT. Think of it this way, strap an extra 40 pounds on your back, and see if you can run the three cone drill just as fast as you did without the extra weight.

Poe’s bigness couldn’t help but weigh on my thinking. Not satisfied that Poe’s numbers represented an apples to apples comparison, I decided I to look up recent combine scores of DTs, sorted by weight. Poe, at 346,is the 5^th heaviest DT to weigh in, being bested on the scales only by the likes of Ahmad Childress, Terrence Cody and Alameda Ta’amu. Scanning the names of other heavyweight contenders, you’ll also find names like Paul Soliai, Kenrick Ellis, Junior Siavii (oops), Haloti Ngata, BJ Raji, Jerrell Powe, and Phil Taylor. Ah, apples to apples.

Now, within this group, I found that Poe scored impressively well compared to the other apples. For example, Poe’s 3 cone time matched that of BJ Raji’s and exceeded, by .07 seconds, that of Haloti Ngata’s. I took this is a step further and averaged the 3 cone scores of all DTs weighing 330 lbs or more. The result? 8.00 secs. Using my own apples to apples, perhaps simplistic, comparison dataset, I unabashedly conclude that Dontari Poe also scored an EPA in the 3 cone drill for the Nose Tackle position.

That’s now makes 4 EPAs for Poe, for those keeping track.

DD’s Broad Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 100”. Chalk up another EPA for Poe. That’s 5.  

DD’s Vertical Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 25.76”. And there you go, another EPA for Poe, thus giving him a perfect score of 6 among his NT peers, at least by my reckoning.

Given Landers observation that all 5 DTs who attained a perfect score of 6 EPAs in his analysis ended up as 1^st teamers, I can’t help but feel a bit more optimistic about Poe’s future manning the interior of the Chiefs DL? Eventually anyway.

Seeing as how this post has gotten a bit lengthy, I’ll leave discussion of our remaining 2012 draft picks for future installment(s). Stay tuned, I promise you a surprise or two.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you think Addicts? Ready to be a Poe Boy now? 

Greetings, Internet friends. It’s been a while since we chatted here. I’ve been busy lately with regular life stuff I won’t bore you with, but our newest draft class has never been far from my mind. And since I’ve gotten a couple emails from readers (friends and relatives) wanting to know my thoughts on the draft, I thought I’d put pen to paper, as it were*.

*Note: I don’t write on Mondays when Paddy and I do AA Radio Sunday. It’s an either/or. Trust me, you people don’t want to be seeing me more than once a week. 

I’m still a Poe boy; nothing has changed there. But from what I can tell, my reasons for being a Poe Boy differ from some of yours.

“He’s a Chief, let’s get behind him!” is a nice sentiment, but shouldn’t factor into objective analysis. ”Gotta trust Romeo” is something I’ve said, about this pick even, but the truth is that although our defense is on the rise, Crennel hasn’t delivered a top-10 unit yet. And in any case, I’m not in the habit of bestowing unconditional trust on men who run sports teams. You know, because I’m from Kansas City?

There are two reasons I really like this pick. The first is that it’s further proof we don’t have Scott Pioli pegged. I like that. My fear with him was always that he was too safe, or risk-averse, or, for lack of a better word, lame. Homerun swings are definitely not lame. Chicks dig the long ball, after all.

But really, I just find this to be a fascinating experiment. I have no idea how it will end. Bust? Maybe. There are concerns. Valid ones. For one thing, I always raise an eyebrow at the concept of “coaching up.” Not that coaches are unimportant, far from it. It’s just that the people already in the industry have a vested interest in the “coaching up” concept, because it assigns credit for success to them, not the players. Because of the high turnover rate among coaches and GMs in professional sports, these guys have to constantly defend their own work. ”We’re gonna coach ‘im up.” Sure. Herm Edwards used to say it, for Christ’s sake.

Still, what happens when you give a defensive coach the best athlete in the draft to fill his last remaining position of need? We’re about to find out. Poe is also a really interesting data point in the widely held belief that the Combine is overrated. Fail or succeed, and we learn a lesson.

I can understand not wanting another D-tackle. Lord knows the Chiefs have whiffed there a time or two. But Poe really isn’t that similar to Ryan Sims, or Tyson Jackson. I like to think of him as more of an Eric Downing 2.0 type.

Kidding. I don’t know what’s going to happen here, but I have this feeling Poe will make Tin Man and Dorsey look like they’re moving through water. I also think he’ll have more sacks than either, even as a rookie. The Chiefs are already referring to him as a three-down lineman. Can you imagine such a thing? A lineman picked high in the first round who doesn’t have to come out on the most important downs? It’s like we just drafted a mythical creature.

Poe excites me. I can’t say the same about the rest of the class. Cyrus Gray and DeQuan Menzie both get an early thumbs up, but it’s tough to expect too much from late-round picks before we’ve even seen them.

Jeff Allen seems like a decent pick, but I can’t help but wonder if Pioli is overvaluing Allen’s supposed versatility. The Chiefs think he can play guard, too. Couldn’t basically any tackle play guard? I mean, failed tackles move to guard all the time. Remember John Welbourn?

Crennel says they just want to play the best five linemen. I applaud that mentality. But if you draft specifically for versatility, you’re not really being flexible, are you? It seems to me most good linemen would be capable of playing a few positions well. I’d prefer to see them pick the best players, and then find a spot for them. Maybe that’s what they’re doing with Allen. But the immediate talk of versatility makes me wonder.

In the end, Allen is a solid lineman, and you can never have too many of those. We do need at least one guy who can step in and do a decent job in case of injury. This was probably a solid pick, but it didn’t wow me.

Donald Stephenson appears likely to follow in the footsteps of Donald Washington. And what I mean by that is I think they’re going to convert him to safety. I know he’s 300 pounds, but I’ve got a feeling.

Even if drafting a potential replacement for Branden Albert is sound planning, I don’t particularly like what it says. I fear Albert may be the next good player to hit the old dusty trail. But perhaps a more likely scenario is that Stephenson simply never becomes a starter.

Devon Wylie makes me wonder how many receivers we’ll carry this season. I’m going to assume D-Bowe is playing for us this year. Baldwin and Breaston are locks. Is McCluster a receiver? Does Terry Copper somehow make this team again? Are Wylie and Junior “Steinbeck” Hemingway in competition for a roster spot? Questions. Questions that need answering. I say we bring in Quinten Lawrence to mentor the whole lot of ‘em. Sure he’s a defensive back for the Dolphins now, but he’s also a former member of Todd Haley’s Core (THC). Methinks a future first-round pick could pry him away and get him back where he belongs.

Last year’s draft class is still my favorite, but to me Poe is unquestionably Pioli’s boldest first-round pick. Fortune favors the bold.  I think it was Jimmy Raye who first said that?

Poe Boys Unite

Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Now that the 2012 NFL Draft is over, it is time to start taking a closer look at the Chiefs’ new players.

The selection of Dontari Poe is extremely controversial. Poe has amazing measurables but he also was not a dominant player in college. Some fans and experts fear that the Chiefs got blinded by Poe’s strength and speed and reached for a boom or bust pick.

The Chiefs seemed ready for the criticism that would be coming their way after the pick. When talking about Poe the first night after the draft, Kansas City Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel was beaming. He talked a lot about how much Poe was moved around on the defensive line at Memphis. According to Crennel, Poe was asked to be a jack of all trades and thus was never able to consistently excel at one position.

The Chiefs feel Poe will be able to be a three-down nose tackle for them that can help put pressure on the QB.

Here is some tape of Poe from one game against Tulane. Poe had one tackle in the game. You can clearly see that Poe is moved all over the field. He lines up at pretty much every spot on the defensive line.

I’m no scout or defensive line expert but I think I can see Poe’s potential here. He doesn’t always get the most push but he also never gets blown off the ball. He’s usually getting double-teamed. I saw a few occasions where Poe was able to blow between those double teams, however Tulane was usually getting the ball out so fast that it didn’t matter. There are a couple of occasions where he demonstrates a pretty effective spin move for such a big guy.

The good news is that Romeo Crennel and KC’s scouts have seen a lot more of Poe than we have and while Poe never looks overwhelming in this tape, we can only hope they guys who get paid to make these decisions got it right.

What do you see on Poe’s tape?

There seems to be a lot of misconceptions and–dare I say–anger afloat concerning the Chiefs first round draft pick NT Dontari Poe. I think the biggest misconception in currency is that the only reason Dontari Poe got 1^st round attention is because he posted eye-popping combine numbers.  Put differently, because he performed so strongly in Indy, he was immediately labeled a “Workout Warrior,” and as a result, drew upon himself greater scrutiny, was assumed suspect for performing so well, and thus became increasingly relegated by many into the “destined to be a bust” category in typical knee-jerk, mob mentality fashion.

Please allow me to at least set the record straight on this one. Well before Dontari Poe made noise at the NFL Combine, the consensus view held that he was the best Nose Tackle prospect in this draft and almost universally assumed to be a 1st round draft candidate.  In other words, the Combine did not transform Dontari Poe into a 1st round pick. It merely underscored an already popular sentiment that Poe’s physical impressiveness (is that a word?) combined with his elite speed and athleticism all pointed to a well-founded belief that Poe possessed the right tools to be a dominating force in the NFL. In this respect at least, Poe is not unlike a lot of 1^st round prospects: either you believe or you don’t.

For the record, I had Poe as the Chiefs’ 1st round draft pick in the mock draft that I posted way back on March 15^th, well before the Combine.  I’m happy and proud to admit that I’ve been on the Poe bandwagon ever since and fully expect to see him develop into a very scary, disruptive force under the talented guidance of Romeo Crennel and co. Add to that with the fact that Crennel was absolutely gushing about landing Poe, which highly suggests to me that Romeo Crennel is going to make it his personal mission to see that Poe succeeds. To that end, I think we can all agree that Crennel is anything but an idiot when it comes to identifying defensive talent and especially when it comes to coaching defensive linemen. Crennel now has his guy, so I say let’s respect what RAC brings to the party and embrace this pick until given reason to feel otherwise.

Nose Tackle has been the most pressing need for the Chiefs defense ever since they converted to the 3-4 scheme. In my opinion, Poe’s size, strength, and quickness fit very closely to what you look for in a zero technique. I know it’s been said a million times over, but for this position, the ability to occupy multiple blockers and collapse the pocket is way more important than just racking up tackles and sacks. In other words: don’t let Dontari Poe’s lack of stats and lack of post-season recognitions convince you that he won’t be put in a position do exactly what he needs to do to make the Chiefs’ defense once again feared by all.

I also think that Crennel responded to the “lack of production” argument in a very direct and comprehensive way. He pointed out that Poe, while at Memphis, was asked to be a “jack of all trades,” essentially playing/covering all positions on the DL and was thus never really put into a position where he  could be the master of one. This simply confirms what I already believed about Poe’s college football experience. He worked under multiple coaches within an inferior, talent-deprived league without any kind of real support around him or meaningful guidance above him. The situation and opportunity for Poe has now taken a dramatic turn for the better. Have faith.

On a slightly different level, I also find this pick absolutely fascinating and it says a few things to me.

First off, Scott Pioli is not cut entirely of “game tape” cloth when it comes to the NFL draft, as many seem to believe.  On the surface at least, it would seem that in Poe’s case, that “game tape” was barely a consideration (unless position versatility became the deciding factor, but I rather doubt that to be the case). While one can find examples of Poe flashing greatness, there is not really some great body of work one can point to. Again, I have to go back to what I just I said – Pioli and Crennel’s evaluation suggest that they must see in him an Indy racer that, to date, has only been taken out in a quiet cul-de-sac by a student driver.

Secondly, whether you love it or hate it, this selection is anything but boring. It is, echoing the words of Big Matt, a “swing for the fences” approach by Pioli. I don’t see how anyone can’t help but love that. As much as I personally wanted Poe to be the selection, I didn’t actually think it would happen because I figured that despite Poe’s high upside, his apparent lack of college level production would ultimately dump him into Pioli’s “way too risky” bin. This pick now tells me that Pioli indeed has some real gambler in him; this pick, were it to fail, will no doubt put Pioli’s neck square on the chopping block.

Thirdly, Scott Pioli must really respect Romeo Crennel’s knowledge of the game, ability to develop talent and overall input when it comes to player assessment. I just have a hard time seeing this pick as happening without RAC saying, in a very large way, “that’s the one guy I want.” I am sure we’ll probably never know if, given the choice between Kuechly and Poe, which the Chiefs’ would have preferred, but Crennel’s enthusiastic response to this pick seems to suggest that Poe was quite likely the Chiefs’ number one target going in, at least as far as realistically obtainable players go.

Additional reflections on the draft so far:

I was really surprised to see 4 QBs taken in the first round, but I at least understand the reasoning behind those moves.

I was equally surprised to see only 4 WRs in the 1^st round. Back in March, because this position was far and away the most in need for teams around the league, I predicted that 6 would be off the board by the end of the 1^st round. Albeit the fact that 4 1^st rounds WRs is (I believe) more than we’ve seen in recent years, it is a(n upward) trend that I fully expect to see continue for the foreseeable future.

I’m really excited about our 2^nd round prospects. The available day two talent in this year’s draft seems quite good.  Moreover, round 2 seems like a can’t-miss opportunity for the Chiefs to upgrade the roster in a significant way.  Indeed, coming away with any of the following players, in no particular order would put a big smile on my face:

WR Stephen Hill

WR Reuben Randle

WR Mohammed Sanu

C/G Peter Konz

OT/G Cordy Glenn

G Amini Silatulo

CB Janoris Jenkins

TE Dwayne Allen

TE Coby Fleener

That’s my Double Take Addicts.

What’s your take?

October 08, 2011; Houston, TX, USA; Memphis Tigers defensive lineman Dontari Poe (74) plays defense in the second half against the Rice Owls at Rice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

On Monday, noted NFL draft expert Mike Mayock updated his positional rankings for next month’s draft. Previously, following his amazing combine performance, Mayock shot Memphis DT Dontari Poe right up to the top spot on his list of DTs for this year’s draft. At the time I was surprised. Mayock has never struck me as the type to get caught up in the “hype machine” around players. I’ll admit, his excitement over Poe has been one of the lingering doubts in the back of my mind as I have crusaded against the Chiefs taking Poe. Well tonight I’m going to rest easy because Mike Mayock has seen the light, or rather the game tape.

In his latest rankings Mayock has dropped Poe from the #1 rated DT down to the #4 DT. You can check out an interview of Mayock talking about his updated rankings HERE. The section where he talks about the DTs is at about 2:45 of the video. It’s worth watching, but if you don’t check it out I’ll paraphrase for you.

Mayock says Poe’s a “physical freak”, but his tape is very average. He says he still thinks that his raw abilities make him a valuable prospect but that he moved him down the board because he thinks the top prospects are expected to be able to come in and play from day one. Mayock thinks Poe will need to go to an established team where he won’t be pressured to play right away and can be mentored on how to play the position by strong veteran players.

So who’s Mayock’s new top rated DT for this year’s draft? Well I’m glad you asked! It just so happens that it’s Mississippi State’s Fletcher Cox. Mayock points out that Cox is also a “freaky athlete” who’s 6’4″ and 300 pounds and ran a 4.8 forty and won’t even turn 21 until September. He says the difference is that Cox’s production and upside match up. He calls Cox a top 15 pick and even says it won’t surprise him if he goes in the top ten.

Anybody else ready to get on the Fletcher Cox bandwagon with me yet?

I never do this. I never fall in love with the top nose tackle prospect. During draft season I daydream about linebackers, DBs and offensive linemen.* Those are the positions I like to pick high.

*You will never, ever hear me complain about an offensive line pick (not named Colin Brown). True story: I once called in to Metro Sports Talk with Duke Frye to praise Trezelle Jenkins. I then called my friends to brag about it and was shocked to discover they were unimpressed. Come on, junior high friends, this is Duke f#%king Frye we’re talking about here!

Carl Peterson’s obsession with drafting defensive tackles scarred me forever. Sims, Freeman, Downing, Siavii, Tank, Dorsey, these eyes had seen too much. Draft season would roll around and I’d get twitchy, start seeing block eaters in every shadow. As a result, I have never wanted the Chiefs to use a top pick on a defensive tackle. Until now.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you Poe is the best possible pick for us. Maybe he isn’t. There are certainly some valid concerns. His footage and stats don’t blow anyone away, despite the fact that he played in Conference USA. That is troubling. Surely an NFL-caliber nose tackle should’ve had his way with the likes of Rice, UTEP and Eastern Carolina. He did not. So how is he going to fare against the cream of the crop? Not very well, logic dictates.

The attraction with Poe, of course, is that he fills our most glaring need. But I’ve argued in the past that the nose tackle is overvalued in the 3-4. He’s off the field almost half the time, for one thing. And Pioli has given scant attention to the position. Maybe he just hasn’t found his guy yet, but the fact remains, the position has clearly not been a priority for him. Is there a reason for this, other than chance? I believe so. Although I can no longer pretend to guess as to what Pioli is thinking on Draft day.  None of us can. Jonathan Baldwin and Justin Houston proved that.

(more…)

Can anyone out there remember an offseason like this? There have been more Earth-shattering developments this week than in the last three offseasons combined.

Obviously the news that affects the Chiefs the most is future Hall-of-Famer Peyton Manning signing with the Broncos. This is probably foolish, but I can’t help it – I am honestly pumped about the move. Before the signing, the writing was on the wall that this was going to be the Chiefs’ year in the division.

That writing is still there.

Matt Williamson from Scouts Inc. – the NFL pundit I most respect – still has the Chiefs as the team to beat in the AFC West and I agree. The fact that the Chiefs will now have stiff competition from the Donkeys only gets me fired up more. As far as I’m concerned, the Chiefs were a blocked field goal away from winning the division without their stars last year, and we shut down the default division winners in the last game of the season. This division is ours, and I am happy to accept all challengers.

Step right up, Peyton, let’s see what you got.

In the movie of Manning’s life, this season may very well be the climax – he’s been cut by his team of 12 years, he’s down and out and trying to climb back to greatness. I love the idea that in this movie, the less-showy, but physical and gritty Chiefs are the bad guys. We will take away his chance for a valiant career comeback because it is OURS.

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All cockiness aside, from this point on, all of the Chiefs’ personnel focus has to be on neutralizing Manning, and not Greg Williams-style. With about $15 million left under the cap, the Chiefs have enough space to offer extensions to a few important players and sign their draft picks plus a few low-level free agent pickups for depth and training camp bodies.

That means that the only major acquisition the Chiefs are going to be able to make this year is their first-round pick. Therefore, it has to be an anti-Manning.

While I’m sympathetic to Paddy’s argument for trading back to build up draft ammunition and flexibility next year for a possible trade-up, I think this year is critical and the opportunity to land possibly one of the top 10 best young players of 2012 shouldn’t be squandered willy-nilly. It is also unclear whether there would be interest in trading into the Chiefs’ spot. There may be, but we can’t count on it, and we need to plan to pick someone at #11 going into April.

That is why I think it would be a mistake to take G David DeCastro. Under normal circumstances, picking DeCastro is exactly the type of conservative, forward-looking move that I would love. I desperately wanted the Chiefs to grab Gabe Carimi last year, and I continue to believe that the O-line needs to be the foundation of team’s offense. However, DeCastro is rated so highly exactly because he is so safe. Most scouts consider him to be NFL-ready, and if the Chiefs had an emergency need at guard, picking him would make a lot of sense. But there will be other guards available with the same amount of raw upside as DeCastro in later rounds that are simply a bit rougher and will require some coaching up. Plus, our needs along the interior O-line are not that great. Love him or hate him, Ryan Lilja, the weakest link, is just mediocre. With solid tackles and run-blocking TEs, we will be able to bounce runs to the outside with ease. In short yardage, Hillis will always able to give us something, even if the left guard isn’t steamrolling forward.

The point is, while DeCastro would be a great addition, he won’t be a game-changer for the Chiefs – especially against Peyton Franken-neck Manning. The Chiefs could have the best running game in the league (again) behind an O-line replete with Hall-of-Famers (again) and still not be able to keep Manning from pulling out a clutch win in the fourth quarter or simply out gunning Cassel in a shootout – a situation that is not difficult to imagine. For reference, look up the puntless 2003 Wild Card game between KC and Indy. SPOILER ALERT, we lost.

ILB Luke Kuechly would also be a safe pick at a position of need. But with Belcher and Brandon Siler coming back next year, I think the Chiefs are above average there too – Belcher is an reasonably reliable overachiever and we don’t even know what we have in Siler yet. Kuechly is also known for his speed and awareness, able to chase down runners coming out of the backfield. He is not known as a great pass-rusher, therefore, he too is not the kind of guy who I think would be a game changer for us.

That leaves Dontari Poe, ranked the 10^th best talent overall by Scouts Inc., and the best DT by nearly all evaluators. As AA commenters have pointed out, Poe has a fairly high bust factor for a guy with his immense physical skills. But, if there was ever a time that the Chiefs need to be bold and take a chance on a guy that could be special, it’s now. Peyton-freaking-Manning just entered our division, and he’s likely to be here for a few years. And oh, by the way, there’s this other guy named Philip Rivers. He plays for a team the Chiefs haven’t swept in the division in a decade.

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Poe is also knocked for not being a prototypical nose tackle – especially for Romeo Crennel’s preferred block-eating scheme. But the fact is that the guy has the physical potential to be a penetrating Jay Ratliff/Haloti Ngata type. He’s not short and stout like Vince Wilfork – the ideal creature for Crennel’s scheme – but guys in the mold of Wilfork are more rare than elite quarterbacks.

The Chiefs could rotate him with Amon Gordon, a bland but valuable run stuffer, and allow Poe to try and blow up the inside protection on passing downs. Jerrel Powe, the D-line’s invisible man, may develop enough this offseason to provide good depth as well. Depending on how Poe does throughout the year, the Chiefs could gradually increase his responsibilities and playing time.

Crennel appears to also be considering DT Michael Bockers, who could contribute as a 3-4 DE in the place of either Glenn Dorsey or Tyson Jackson – two expensive underachievers I wouldn’t mind discarding.

The main idea though, is simply adding a card to our hand that will counteract the arrival of perhaps the best QB who has ever lived. Both DeCastro and Kuechly will probably be fine football players. But to draft either of them would be declining to throw a punch in what is going to be the most interesting division battle the AFC West has seen in years.

Free agency is always a nervous time for a Chiefs fan.

As has been the M.O. of the Pioli regime, KC entered free agency slowly and cautiously like a 5-year-old wading into a murky pond. With a lot of guys I had strongly trumpeted as priority signings getting deals elsewhere (namely OG Carl Nicks and NT Paul Soliai), my blood pressure was getting dangerously high by late last week.

But, after a flurry of moves in the last two days, I think every fan should be satisfied with the haul so far – FB Peyton Hillis, QB Brady Quinn, TE Kevin boss and RT Eric Winston.

The Hillis signing is the one I am the most lukewarm about. If Daboll can get him playing to his 2010 level, then it will be the steal of the year — $3 million for a top-10 rusher. My guess is that after all of the 2011 drama, no other team wanted to touch Hillis and he figured the best place to resurrect his name would be under Daboll again in KC, which is why we got him for a song. The fact that it is a one-year deal means that he knows he has to deliver. But after his antics last year, I am very nervous about counting on him, especially if (knock on wood, God forbid, double fingers crossed) Jamaal Charles goes down again. I would have much preferred if we had picked up Mike Tolbert – a similar player skill-set wise, who is much more reliable.

Brady Quinn makes sense for a lot of reasons – Crennel drafted him and Daboll also worked with him in Cleveland and they know what they are getting. Biggest positive: he is not Tyler Palko.

However, the Chiefs’ two best signings so far were easily Kevin Boss and Eric Winston. Although his production as a pass-catcher has dropped off considerably since his days at the Meadowlands, Boss is known as a great blocker, and the fact that he has hands (unlike the litany of no-name #2 tight ends the Chiefs have had recently), is certainly a plus.

Brett Davis-US PRESSWIRE

Eric Winston is the sort of brilliant signing we all dream about. Winston immediately turns the Chiefs’ biggest weakness into a strength at the right tackle position. While I hope the Chiefs will still make some good pickups for depth along the O-line, I think we now have one of the best units in the NFL. If Wiegmann retires and Jeff Saturday doesn’t follow Manning to wherever he finally ends up, then I think it would make sense to bring him on board if he would be interested in making a couple million as a coach-in-pads and backup center.

Even if the middle of our line – RG Jon Asomoah, C Rodney Hudson and LG Ryan Lilja – has a mediocre year, I don’t think it will impact our running game in 2012, which will likely be the core of our offense. Jamaal Charles has always been best when he gets the opportunity to bounce runs to the outside, and now with Brandon Albert and Winston bookending the edges and Moeaki and/or Boss sealing DE’s and linebackers inside, he is going to break some big ones, plain and simple.

All of this means one thing loud and clear to me – expect the Chiefs’ first-round pick to be DT/NT Dontari Poe. Poe is an extremely high-upside guy who looks like he could hold down any spot on a 3-4 front. As Crock examined earlier, neither he nor Devon Still perfectly fit Crennel’s specific gap scheme on the D-line. But a guy like him, who has the power and motor to demand double and triple-teams with the speed to release off blocks and pursue runners, has to be considered.

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He is a taller than prototypical nose tackles at 6’4” and may end up being better served as a penetrating NT like the Cowboys’ Jay Ratliff, but I think Crennel is a good enough defensive mind to be able to craft a scheme that would allow his unique talents to shine.

The Chiefs could play a three-man front of Glenn Dorsey, Amon Gordon and Poe at DE on early downs to stuff the run, then move Poe to NT with Allen Bailey and Wallace Gilberry at the end positions on obvious passing downs. Thus, picking Poe could finally allow the Pioli to own up to his earlier error and cut Mr. Tyson Financial Burden Jackson, which would save the Chiefs literally tens of millions over the next two years.

The only danger that this doesn’t happen is if the Panthers decide to grab him at #9 in the draft, although I think it is more likely that they go after one of the falling O-linemen or edge pass rushers. Still, if it looks like the Panthers might be dead set on getting Poe, I wouldn’t be against sacrificing our second-rounder to move above them and be assured to snatch him. If he appears to be the real thing in workouts, then he’s the guy we have to have – these sorts of talents are just too rare.

If Poe is gone, then I think the next move is to target ILB Luke Kuechly. Although I think Jovan Belcher has done enough to keep his job, Kuechly is the next best talent available at an area of need for the Chiefs.

Still, with Kelly Gregg likely to retire and with Soliai re-signing in Miami, the only remaining glaring hole on the Chiefs’ roster is NT and Poe is the only guy available to fill that spot. He is a no-brainer pick, and should become just one more joker in KC’s deck come opening day in September.

Over the past several weeks, we’ve talked a lot about it without coming out and saying it: this year’s offseason will be very difficult to screw up. And that is a comforting thought for long-flummoxed Chiefs fans.

So far, the Chiefs have been stuck with a series of no-brainer moves. They extended Tamba Hali to a long-term deal during the season; Jamaal was locked up the year before. They picked up a few cheap depth guys who had fallen off the backs of trucks.

Then came their first real choice. Re-sign Brandon Carr or bring in Stanford Routt? Routt was cheaper, and apparently better at man coverage, which Crennel ran to crushing success in his three games has HC. Routt signed. Done.

Dwayne Bowe remained the last big KC free agent to re-sign, but contract negotiations had long been drawn out. The franchise tag number for 2012 for wide receivers was $9.4 million – not far north of what the average yearly salary would be for him in an extended deal. Tagged him. Done.

Last year, we were one game behind the division winner. In my opinion, the Chiefs are the favorites to win the division just by standing still. No matter whom they draft or sign, their biggest acquisitions in 2012 will be Charles, Moeaki and Berry back from injury.

However, the Chiefs don’t have to sit still this time. Not only do they have about $28 million in cap room (factoring in the Bowe deal), but they are picking 11^th in the draft, which is more and more looking to be the 1^st-round sweet spot for falling talent.

Now, I know there are millions of mock drafts out there, but looking at the latest mocks from CBS Sports, NFL.com, and the Bleacher Report, I formed what is a kind of consensus of the latest thinking. Again, it reveals that the Chiefs cannot lose.

In none of the 10 mock drafts I used for my sample was the beastly G David DeCastro picked, nor was intimidating linebacker Luke Kuechly. In 8/10, Jonathan Martin, who is considered to be the most athletic OT in the draft, was still available; in 5/10 OT Reily Reiff was there. Not only was he a beast in college, but Pioli has strong ties to his college coach Kirk Ferentz, and he will know this player in and out.

Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly runs the 40 yard dash during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

In 8/10, DT/NT Dontari Poe, the surprise physical monster of the Combine, was available for the Chiefs. And, although he’s tall for a nose tackle, he has the raw athleticism to be a good one. A 346-lbs man that can run a 4.98 40 is a scary creation.

In 6/10, QB Ryan Tannehill is still available – the consensus third best QB in the draft. This would also present an interesting choice for the Chiefs. On one hand, if the teams behind them are still nervous about their ability to pick up a top QB, the Chiefs could offer a reasonable deal to teams unable or unwilling to spend to trade into the top-10, but might be willing to part with a 3^rd-rounder or 2^nd-rounder next year to move up a few spots to 11 for Tannehill. The Jets are a few spots back and have talked a lot about bringing in significant competition for Sanchez.

Directly behind the Chiefs are the Seahawks and Cardinals who have biting QB needs and will be competing with each other to get to Tannehill first if they can’t bring in a top talent in free agency.

The Chiefs could also take him, as crazy as that sounds and give Matt Cassel REAL competition. Given Tannehill’s draft status and the fact that he is much younger than Cassel, he would obviously have the upper hand, but the Chiefs could afford to transition into him as the next season or two went on. In the end, such a move might get Cassel back to the position he was naturally suited for back in 2008 – as the league’s best backup QB.

Now, I’ve already talked about a wide variety of options for the Chiefs when it comes to free agency, but the rundown is this: we can pick whoever we want. With our cap room, there are little to no restrictions on who we take aboard. With Drew Brees franchised by the Saints, the best Guard in football, Carl Nicks, is now available. He is #1 target. Solid NFL-proven guys like NT Paul Soliai are also floating out there and there are plenty of guys able to fill out depth and provide competition on the O-line and at inside LB.

The cherry on top is that the Chiefs could afford several of those moves and still afford the jewel of free agency who is already available – Peyton Manning.

Feb 4, 2012; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning and his father Archie Manning attend the direct TV celebrity beach bowl at Victory Field. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

When it was looking like the Chiefs would have to trade for him I was against it. But given how the Chiefs have only a few big needs and the ability to fill all the other holes with quality in the draft and free agency, I agree with Crennel that KC would be “crazy” not to make a run at the guy. If he wants big-time guaranteed money as a 36-year-old with an 80-year-old’s neck, then I won’t kill the Chiefs for letting someone else take that leap. After all, the Chiefs are practically a lock to win the division this year anyway. But, this is also the one offseason where the mix of meager needs and expansive resources allow for luxurious moves like bringing in an aging quarterback who might just be the best who ever lived. Price tag be damned.

Overall, unless Pioli dumps the Chiefs extra cap cash and draft picks into a ditch and burns them, the Chiefs are set. While his tenure has overall been shaky, and Hunt loves his money like none other, I think the writing is on the wall that this is the Chiefs year and they will pull the necessary triggers.

And that means I am going to tell you to do something that, as a Chiefs fan, goes against every instinct you have. Don’t worry.

If the Chiefs somehow miss out on Manning, don’t worry. That’s money that will go to fixing the lines and steamrolling the division in other ways. Trent Richardson doesn’t slip down to us? Who cares? We’ll still have a smorgasbord of other options in need areas on the team. It’s been smooth sailing so far, and barring a Pioli nervous breakdown or a nuclear war between here and next winter, the Chiefs are set for a deep run into the playoffs. Quoth Rex Ryan, “Guaranteed.”

Afternoon, Addicts! It’s a pretty exciting time to be a Chiefs fan right now. Free agency is about to begin, the NFL draft is getting ever closer, and the Chiefs are making national news as a possible landing place for one of the greatest QBs in the history of football. There’s so much going on that it’s hard to write one of these pieces just one day in advance because so much can change so quickly.

As I write this on Sunday evening I know there’s a chance we could hear that Dwayne Bowe has been franchised or Peyton Manning has been released before this post even hits the website. So instead of writing on one specific topic and risk having it rendered irrelevant by the time it goes public, I thought I’d throw out some thoughts on several different topics and see if anything sticks. Think of it as my own feeble attempt at a Chiefs related “Monday Morning Quarterback.”

And away we go………..

• Peyton Manning – Okay, I’ve tried REALLY hard not to get Manning Fever, but I’ve failed. I’m now at the point where if the Chiefs don’t sign Manning I’m going to be really disappointed. I know I’m setting myself up for a huge let down, but I can’t help it. I keep telling myself that even with Matt Cassel at QB, they can be a playoff team if they improve the offensive line and find a good nose tackle (more on that in a minute). I honestly believe that. That having been said, there’s a big difference between being a playoff team and being a team that has a legit shot to win a Super Bowl, and that’s exactly what the Chiefs will be if they land Manning. I have to move on to something else now because if I think about Manning as a Chief for too long I just get too excited. It’s not healthy.

• Robert Griffin III – This may seem like I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth after I just got done saying I’m getting myself worked up about signing Peyton Manning, but now I’m going to play the role of party pooper. If you’re still holding out hope that KC might be the team that moves up to #2 in the draft to land the amazing talent that is RG3, I’ve got bad news for you. It’s never going to happen. I know the comments from the combine made it sound like both Crennel and Pioli were head-over-heels for the guy, and that may be true. Here’s the problem, it’s not about if the Chiefs would like to move up and get him, it’s about them being willing to outbid the other teams that want him. The top two teams (Cleveland and Washington) that supposedly want him are both drafting before KC, which means if they offer the same picks (let’s say, two firsts, a second, and a third) the Rams will take the team that drafts earlier because they will have better picks. That means the Chiefs would have to offer significantly more than Cleveland (who has a truck load of extra picks from the Julio Jones trade) and Washington (who has an owner that is known for spending out of control when he wants something). That’s just NOT going to happen. Sorry, RG3 fans!

• Dontari Poe – Here’s another guy that is getting huge press coming out of the combine. The guy is 350 pounds, benched a combine best 44 reps, and then ran a 4.8 forty-yard dash. I’ll admit, that’s REALLY impressive. That having been said, I don’t want the Chiefs to draft Poe with the 11th pick. Here’s the thing, you would think that a 350 pound man that can put up 44 reps in the bench press would have just dominated Conference USA. So where is the footage of Poe tossing around non-BCS offensive linemen like rag dolls? If there is any out there, I haven’t found it. The guy didn’t even make first team all conference! That means the coaches he played against didn’t even think he was one of the two best DTs in a non-BCS conference. So it seems to me that the idea of this guy walking in and being ready to anchor a NFL 3-4 defense as a rookie feels like a big bust waiting to happen. No question that the guy has freakish upside and could end up making teams that pass on him regret it, but if the Chiefs want someone to start right away they should look at one of the several good free agent NTs about to hit the market.

• Right Tackle – Okay, so I’ve already said that I don’t think the Chiefs will move up to get RG3 and that they shouldn’t take Dontari Poe. So what should they do? I’m glad that you asked (or at least have humored me enough to keep reading). To me taking an offensive tackle just makes too much sense. The three biggest positions of need (in my opinion) our QB, RT, and NT. QB isn’t going to happen in the draft, as I’ve already said (and no, I don’t think Tannehill is an option). NT has some great options in free agency and the only first round option in the draft is Poe and I’ve already listed my doubts about him. That leaves RT. Offensive tackle in one of the weakest positions in free agency this year. That means that any team that needs a tackle will be overpaying for just the couple of mediocre starting tackles available. To me that all adds up to taking an OT at number 11 this year. I just hope that either Reiff or Martin is there when they pick because Mike Adams flopped at the combine.

• Tampering Problems? – Okay, so head coach Romeo Crennel got into a little bit of hot water when he said the “he would be crazy not to consider” Peyton Manning if he was available. Now in order for the Chiefs to get in trouble, I believe a team would have to file tampering charges against them and I can’t see the Colts doing that given all the drama they’re going through with Peyton to begin with. However, I found it very interesting that when I went to the Chiefs website to see who the latest FA feature in their “30 FAs in 30 Days” series was only to find that there was none. Not only was there not a new player featured on Sunday, but the entire series was completely gone from the website. You can’t find a single one of the old features. My guess is that after the Crennel/Manning slip of the tongue that somebody decided that the Chiefs official website featuring write-ups on players that weren’t actually free agents yet was a little too close to the tampering line. Whether that was the Chiefs’ call or something that came down from the league office is anybody’s guess. I did find it interesting though.

Well, I think that’s it for this week. Here’s to hoping that we get some exciting news this week (if we haven’t already by the time this posts). As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!