We are now two days out from the Chiefs’ 1^st-round pick being announced at Radio City Music Hall.

In a normal year, there would be very little suspense at this point for us fans. We’d already be talking about the contract details of the team’s assumed new player and what will happen later in the draft. But, as we all know, this is a strange year and a strange draft class. And, the LT Brandon Albert ball is still in the air.

So, here are the probabilities for what I think is going to happen. Feel free to chime in with your own.

1.) Will Albert be traded before the Draft officially begins?

80% Yes, 20% No.

If I’m the Chiefs, I want to make sure this deal gets done before I send my envelope to the podium. The Dolphins seem dead-set on nailing an LT in this draft, but the 2^nd-rounder they would send to the Chiefs for the trade could also potentially be used by them to trade up into the top seven to pick one of the top LT prospects. They may even prefer this option because they’d have the guy under contract for four years, he’ll be cheaper and younger, and can grow with their new quarterback.

Still, given that the talks have gotten this deep, it looks like the Chiefs simply need to act on it – with compensation perhaps a bit lower than they expect. Trading Albert essentially locks the Chiefs into taking one of the two LT prospects Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher and it’s unlikely they will be able to sign Albert to a long-term deal and trade him for much value if they both keep him this year and draft his replacement. I think they have considerable incentives to seal the deal before lights hit the stage in New York.

2.) Who will the Chiefs pick?

50% Luke Joeckel, 30% Eric Fisher, 12% OLB Dion Jordan, 5% DT Shariff Floyd, 3% DT Star Lotulelei

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Again, the Albert trade looks like all but a done deal, but getting a game-changer like Jordan certainly has to give them pause. However, if Albert is traded (again, an 80% probability IMHO), then they’re taking Fisher or Joeckel. Other possibilities if he stays are Floyd and Lotulelei, which would add bulk and versatility to the D-line.

3.) When do the Chiefs pick their first ILB?

50% 3^rd round, 20% 4^th round, 15% 5th round, 10% 2nd round, 5% no ILB taken this year

Even though it is the most conspicuous hole on the roster, I think the sweet spot for drafting ILB’s this year is the 3^rd round and it is a deep draft at that position. I don’t think GM John Dorsey is the kind of guy to spring for need if we get a 2^nd rounder by trading Albert, or trading up into the 2^nd round for a guy unless Alec Ogletree or Manti Te’o fall far. On the other hand, the team doesn’t currently have a 2^nd rounder, but it does have two picks in the third. I think they’ll go for the value guy on their list in the mid-rounds. On the other hand, they brought in two journeymen ILB’s for offseason workouts and it’s not a premiere position. They may think that they can cover themselves with what they have and take value picks in other places.

4.) How many offensive skill players will the Chiefs draft?

50% three, 20% four, 20% two, 10% one

This is a bit of a wild guess, because everything we know about Dorsey tells us that he likes to draft purely for value. Still, the offense was the Achilles’ heel of this team for the last two seasons and the side of the football that requires the greatest improvement. But: the new regime has already taken the most important step forward in improving the quarterback position, We also locked up our #1 WR in Dwayne Bowe and signed a #2 in Donnie Avery. We’re told that HC Andy Reid likes WR Dexter McCluster in a slot role and WR Jon Baldwin is still developing… we hope. That doesn’t leave a lot of spots for draft picks unless you plan on cutting them or putting them on the practice squad when the season begins.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

At running back, we have Jamaal Charles, Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray. The latter two are pickups from the previous regime and I would be surprised if Dorsey didn’t pick up a developmental RB at some point in the draft. It would also stand to reason for them to grab a young QB and TE at some point, but I would be surprised if they take more than one of each.

5.) When, if ever will the Chiefs take a QB?

50% 5^th round or later, 30% not this year, 20% 3^rd or 4^th round

The behavior of both this regime and the other NFL front offices implies that the league generally views this as not being the year to pick up a quarterback. In a sense, the Chiefs have already used their 2^nd-round pick on QB Alex Smith and they signed his backup to a generous contract. I don’t expect them to draft anyone that will provide immediate competition to either of them. That said, if a guy like Matt Barkley falls into the 4^th, I’d be surprised if the Chiefs passed on him altogether.

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

So what do you say? How do you like my odds?

 Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

New Chief Dunta Robinson’s contract details have come out. His deal is 3 years 15 million dollars.

The contract is said to be backloaded as well. 4 millon is guaranteed in his contract. This appears to be a nickel or safety type deal, starting money for a cornerback is around 6 million. Look for the Chiefs to still be active in the backfield through free agency.

Are you happy with this type of deal? Do you want him as the starting corner alongside Brandon Flowers?

Last week, I wrote that I was not opposed to acquiring Alex Smith per se, just against looking to him the “answer” to our quarterback woes. It appears that the team has done exactly that.

This post is scheduled to come out at 4 p.m. Central, but as I write this, we do not yet know whether the franchise tag has been used on any of the Chiefs’ three most important free agents – WR Dwayne Bowe, LT Brandon Albert or P Dustin Colquitt.

The early signs and reports are that the Chiefs will likely franchise Bowe, let Albert walk, and draft LT Luke Joeckel 1^st overall. I’ve read countless articles and analyses for and against the trade (most of them for), and my thoughts on this scenario have not changed. Last week I wrote, “if what we end up with is San Fran’s average-to-above-average castaway and a replacement for Brandon Albert who’s unproven in the NFL for the 1st overall pick and, say, a 3rd of 4th this year, it will be hard to deem this offseason a success.”

Even I didn’t think Smith would cost a 2^nd and a 2014 3^rd, as has been reported.

Since 1987, the year I was born, the Chiefs have only started two quarterbacks they drafted themselves – Doug Hudson (7^th round, 1987) and Brodie Croyle (3^rd round, 2006). In fact, since I have been alive, the Chiefs have only twice drafted a quarterback higher than the 3rd round – Mike Elkins in the 2nd in 1989 and Matt Blundin in the 2^nd in 1992. The last time the Chiefs used a 1^st-round pick on a quarterback was exactly 30 years ago in 1983.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

None of this has anything to do with Smith, GM John Dorsey or HC Andy Reid, except that it meant that this trade was automatically going to be met with disappointment by a large swath of Chiefs nation.

I hope this move works out, I really do. But, history and precedent have not been kind to the Chiefs when acquiring quarterbacks in this fashion.

I think Trent Green was worth the 1^st-rounder we traded for him and I suppose Joe Montana, who got us our last playoff victory 20 years ago, was worth that 1^st-rounder too by some measure. Green gave us five (mostly) competitive seasons and Montana gave us two before inevitably retiring.

I guess my question is what will Smith have to do to earn what we gave for him? Playoff wins, surely. A Super Bowl? How many years do we expect him to play for us? If we win a sufficient number of games next year, then that conditional 3^rd-rounder becomes a 2nd which, given that we already gave the 49ers the #34 overall pick, means that we will have gotten Alex Smith for the equivalent of a 1^st-round pick in terms of draft capital.

In Montana’s last year, the Chiefs traded a 4^th-round pick to San Fran for his former backup there, Steve Bono. In his first season starting for Kansas City, Bono had a pro-bowl season and went 13-3. Would that be an adequate return for the draft haul we gave up for Smith?

The Chiefs went 9-7 the next year and cut him in favor of another San Fran backup, this time Elvis Grbac. In college he twice won the Big Ten passing efficiency award, holding Michigan’s record for that mark until being passed up by John Navarre and later Chad Henne. He also went 13-3, but really hit his mark of efficiency in 2000 throwing for 4,169 yards with a 59.6 completion rate … in a year we won seven games.

Efficiency wasn’t enough, so we traded for Trent Green in 2001 who got us a 13-3 season in 2003 (are you starting to see the pattern here?) and a playoff loss. Then he got injured and we opted for his 33-years-young backup Damon Huard, who got us to another playoff loss. When Huard and Croyle washed out we traded for Matt Cassel, who got us one more good season, one more playoff loss.

These guys were all above average quarterbacks with some physical limitations but were seen as good decision-makers that took care of the football. They all got us to the playoffs at some point before we realized they wouldn’t take us any further than that.

Look, this isn’t a science and it’s not like the Chiefs have just been pressing the wrong button over and over again. But, this mentality that the Chiefs are just one safe, limited quarterback away from crawling to the promised land seems to have kept the franchise in neutral for practically my entire life.

If Alex Smith takes us to the playoffs next year, I will be overjoyed, but I’m not sure that alone will make this trade worthwhile. Because of the Smith trade, the Chiefs will almost certainly be once again forgoing the roll of the dice that is drafting a QB in the first two rounds – something we haven’t tried for 21 years.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Think about that. By the time the Chiefs do (maybe) pick a QB next year, it is likely that this quarterback will not have been alive when the Chiefs last drafted a QB so high.

A lot of commentators have been dismissive of the large group of Chiefs fans that are nervous, disappointed or downright nauseous about the Smith trade, claiming that we’re all just blind Geno lovers. As a passenger on the Geno bandwagon, I would like to respectably disagree. We Alex-Smith pessimists are merely those fans who hoped desperately that the team would depart from its philosophy of the past.

So, I ask again, because I’m not sure I have the answer myself, what does Alex Smith have to do to be a good acquisition? How many starts, playoff victories and championship appearances are adequate compensation? Will you be satisfied if he is our next Trent Green?

Because he’s about to begin his 8^th NFL season and won’t be with us forever. Right now, he is our “answer” at the position. He has to be. We have no one to develop beside him, and probably won’t until at least next year.

The last week has certainly thrown our QB draft predictions through a loop.

The first shoe to drop was Michael Vick, who signed a new three-year contract “that’s really a one-year deal” according to USA Today worth up to $10 million last Monday. He was already under contract but his restructured deal all but ended speculation that he might be a cap casualty and hit the open market. This leaves just Alex Smith and Matt Flynn as starting-caliber QB’s who could be cut or traded by their current teams.

Then, over the weekend, Dorsey heavily criticized this year’s incoming quarterback draft class, citing “so many inconsistencies” and “too many technical flaws, scheme flaws” among this year’s crop.

Like Paddy, I struggle to understand the purpose of these statements except that maybe he’s hoping to find a trade partner who is enamored with either DT Star Lotulelei or LT Luke Joeckel (the consensus top prospects at the moment) and is willing to hopscotch up to the Chiefs’ spot to guarantee not missing out on one of them. Then again, it’s February and GM’s are usually the last person you can trust leading up to the draft. On the other hand, when you hold the first pick, you don’t really need to juke out anyone.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A few days before his statements came reports that the Chiefs were interested in trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles. It remains unclear if these reports or credible or just idle speculation that Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid would be interested in taking the quarterback he drafted last year and started in the final seven games of the season. One way or the other, with the Chiefs QB options narrowing, it is certainly worth considering whether the team should make a play for Foles and what he would be worth.

In my opinion, Foles is worth at least the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick. Here’s why:

His overall stats for his rookie season were unimpressive: 1-7 record, 60.8% completion percentage for 6.41 yards per completion, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. But, it’s important to see how he progressed. In his last four games last year he was 5 TD’s, 2 INTs for 1,152 yards (a 289.25 per-game average).

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Consider also that he was never supposed to see the field in 2012. He was widely regarded as a guy who would need a lot of development to be ready to play in the NFL.

Furthermore, he was able to put in respectable performances for the Eagles during the home stretch of a season that was a slow motion implosion. Our very own Andy Reid was a lame duck in Week 3. The defense was a sieve, allowing a 27.8 per game (3^rd-worst in the league). Two coaches were fired mid-season. The offensive line was a disaster, allowing a league-high 118 QB hits, and 48 sacks. Only four teams allowed more.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

In some ways, none of this was new to him. He played college ball at Arizona, a middling team in the PAC-12 that played poor defense and only got to one bowl game during his stint there. Their head coach was fired after his junior season.

Nonetheless, Foles was a highly ranked prospect in the 2012 Draft because he possesses the prototypical qualities of a successful quarterback – 6’5” with a big arm and knack for dropping bombs in his receivers’ breadbaskets. In his final season for the Wildcats, he gained 4,334 yards with 28 TD’s and 14 INT’s. He was ranked CBS Sports’ 48^th overall prospect and was expected to go in the mid-to-late 2^nd round. (For a total breakdown of his college work, check out Ladner’s post on the subject from last year).

In fact, the only reason he fell so far was likely because last year’s draft class was so much richer than this year’s and there had already been a feeding frenzy on signal callers. Six quarterbacks were taken ahead of Foles — Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson. All but one of those guys started this year and proved that they could be productive players. After Foles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Lindley were selected and also ended up playing for their respective teams. So, while the Eagles may have gotten him for just a 3^rd, that was a steal. Luckily for us, Pioli grabbed a backup lineman instead.

So what is he worth?

For the record, I should reiterate that I continue to believe that the Chiefs’ best course of action is to franchise LT Brandon Albert, re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe and grab the top quarterback prospect (Geno Smith) with our first overall pick. We can pick up some serviceable veterans and depth players to plug in the rest of our holes with free agency and the lower-rungs of the draft.

But, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a case for grabbing Nick Foles.

With his youth, upside and NFL experience, I think Foles would easily be one of the top three quarterback prospects if he was magically inserted into the 2013 draft. His tape reminds me a lot of Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon and it’s possible that both of those guys will go in the first round. I can’t fathom either of them falling out of the 2^nd.

So, Nick Foles’ former draft position doesn’t matter much when talking about draft compensation this year. In fact, given that he showed the ability to be productive at this level automatically means that he is worth more than the 88^th overall pick, where he was chosen. Therefore, the Eagles are right to expect more in return.

If we’re talking about equitable compensation I think the conversation starts at the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick, which, as Ladner pointed out, is really a late 2^nd-round pick because the Saints and Browns have no 2^nd-rounders this year. We will still probably get a late-3^rd compensatory pick, so the sacrifice isn’t devastating. But, I don’t think the Chiefs should go as high as our #34 selection this year, simply because we need to get value with that pick this year (especially if we are going to “reach” at #1). But, I think it makes perfect sense to offer conditional 2014 picks and maybe even 2015 picks based on Foles’ performance.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

A possible deal could look like this – a 3^rd or 4^th this year and a 6^th next year that could increase to a 4^th, 3^rd, or even 2^nd-round pick in 2014 if he starts for us and takes us to the playoffs. Generally, a pick next year is considered the equivalent of a pick in the current year minus one round. In other words, a 3^rd-rounder next year is worth a 4^th-rounder this year in terms of draft capital.

With this kind of a deal, worst case scenario is that we give up one of our top-100 picks this year and not much else for a starting-quality backup, who is better than any QB we currently have on the roster, who is 24 and who has a ton of upside. He totally outplayed Brandon Weeden last year, who was taken in the 1^st round and is five years older.

If Foles starts for us and we do well with him in 2013, we won’t care that we lost our (late) 2^nd or 3^rd-round pick next year to get him.

Furthermore, Philadelphia may not be so determined to fetch such a high price. While they have said that they would need to be “blown away” by an offer, they have a new regime and are looking for a different type of quarterback. By re-signing Michael Vick and picking up QB Dennis Dixon, who Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly coached in Oregon, they are showing they want a guy who is mobile and can keep up with Kelly’s offense. Slow feet is one of Foles’ greatest weaknesses. He is the black sheep on the roster. So, while they see value in him, that doesn’t mean they’re in love.

While I know it would be groan-inducing for most Chiefs fans, trading for Foles may also be the team’s best way to get one of the most objectively talented prospects in the 2013 Draft plus a possible quarterback of the future. I’ve been on the record as saying that it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to bypass Geno for Lotulelei or Joeckel, but adding Foles to our shopping bag as a 3^rd round pick changes things a bit.

If Dorsey truly is averse to grabbing the top QB in 2013, I think the best consolation prize we are going to find is Nick Foles.

I was never on the bandwagon for firing Todd Haley last year.

Of course, this all sounds like “I told ya so” talk now, but I enjoyed going back and reading my articles defending Haley and expressing skepticism about Crennel for an entirely different reason: It was a simpler time.

Looking at the old AA pieces I wrote, I realized it was like re-reading diary entries from childhood in the days of innocence before some traumatic event. Back then, we had excuses for our poor play and it seemed like good football was on the horizon. Our coach and quarterback had been disappointing but were still winning some games. The team had an architect that we could still give the benefit of the doubt.

Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE

Now that innocence is gone and we recognize our parents are not paragons of virtue and strength but flawed mortals. The world is full of people who lie and mean people don’t always get punished. This team is off the rails. The last four years have been basically wasted. We have no coach, no QB, no GM and an owner who seems to be conducting a social experiment to determine how long before fans burn Arrowhead to the ground in rage at his inaction.

Back then, we could still say that we had a QB on the roster good enough to get us through games, that we were full of young talent and we were growing a dynasty. Just add water. Today, nothing looks good and people in Chiefs country are dying of anguish and frustration.

It really cannot be overstated. At 1-9, the Chiefs have matched their worst opening to a season in the history of the franchise. I will be honestly stunned if we win another game this year. By every major metric other than rushing production the Chiefs are a disgrace. At this point, both Haley and even Herm Edwards look attractive.

But, it’s really not just because of how bad we are right now. I’ve always thought Haley got a raw deal.

In 2009, Haley was one of 11 head coaches hired. Like Todd, most were successful coordinators somewhere else. Of those 11, only two still have their jobs — Jim Schwartz in Detroit and Rex Ryan in New York, and they’re both 4-6 right now, by the way. By the time Haley was fired only four of those other coaches from the class of 2009 had a better win-loss record – Ryan, Jim Caldwell, Mike Singletary and Jim Mora Jr..

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

So, while that was an admittedly uninspiring crop, Haley was among the most successful coaches hired that year. Also, statistically speaking, it was nearly certain that the Chiefs would have a bad season.

Thirty NFL teams between 2002 and 2009 increased their season-to-season records by five or more games like the Chiefs did between 2009 and 2010. Of them, 24 (80 percent) had worse seasons following their surge – with 13 (43 percent) of them losing at least four more games after their surprising season. There are lots of reasons for this of course, the main one: changes in the strength of schedule. Also, the NFL is just a hard place to maintain success. Let down years are inevitable.

But even Haley somehow won five of 13 games without the ACL crew. He even got a win with Tyler Palko at quarterback while the team this year has only even had a lead in two games so far.

It’s also not as if Haley had a whole lot to work with. In addition to the fact that Pioli was diametrically opposed to putting a quarterback on the field not named Matt Cassel, KC’s defenses were nearly always inconsistent, showing up big in some games and melting away in others. He also had to deal with a sociopathic boss who collects candy wrappers, wiretaps his employees and in the end essentially fired him because he didn’t shave or wear a new hat. (Seriously, I’m quite certain that when Pioli gets off work he goes to sit and stare quizzically at an array of severed heads in jars).

But mostly, I just realized that I honestly liked our team that year. I’m finding it very hard to say the same in 2012. In 2011, we were a team ravaged by injuries playing above our level of talent and clawing for every win. Now, we’re just a bundle of undisciplined players making dumb mistakes and barely giving opponents any resistance as they march up and down the field.

Haley was known for being overly brash on the sidelines, which is something I would love to see these days. Someone needs to yell at these guys. When I heard the criticism about him being verbally aggressive, I always thought it was way overblown. These players are grown men and this is an emotional game – or at least it is unless your name is Romeo. If so, then game day is a time when the bad people make you stand outside for three hours and all you have to read is a laminated sheet of paper while you stare blankly at the field while repeating soup recipes in your head. Or at least that’s what I think he’s doing. Your guess is as good as mine. All I can tell you is that it is not inspiring.

So here we are. Refreshing football news websites over and over hoping to see that someone has been fired. This is what it has come to. We have come of age and discovered that the adults running things are even more screwed up than us little people down below and there’s nothing to do about it.

But, family is family. So, next Sunday and the Sunday after that, I will tune in to watch the Chiefs play. I will cringe and guffaw, and write another piece, although I’m running out of things to say.

Maybe next week this column will be about soup.

Jason Bridge-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City Chiefs RG Jon Asamoah has been ruled out Sunday for the game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

This means that Russ Hochstein will start in his place at right guard. Hochstein was picked up earlier this season and hasn’t got much playing time.

The Chiefs also reported that Jon Baldwin would be out. This likely means that Steve Breaston will be active this week. I think Breaston could be good if he got some playing time and if Matt Cassel trusts him.

Jake O’Connell has also been ruled out, but I don’t think this is very significant because he doesn’t see much playing time as it is.

Do you think this will affect the Chiefs’ blocking this Sunday?

Jason Bridge-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Cassel has been named the starter by Romeo Crennel for this weeks game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.

Brady Quinn told reporters he was cleared to play on Monday night after the game against the Steelers.

Romeo Crennel said today that Quinn was not cleared to play. Very bizarre with two contradicting stories.

What do you think? Who would you like the Chiefs to start this week?

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

This coming football weekend the Chiefs will face the Steelers on Monday Night Football, and given the shape the Chiefs have been in, I expect it to be brutal. That being said, I don’t particularly care for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

But I do live in Pennsylvania and they are the “home” team, so I have to put up with their fans quite a bit. One of those (unfortunate) fans happens to be my wife. Not only is she a diehard Steelers fans, but every single one of my in-laws are: whoopee!!!

Normally when Kansas City goes head-to-head with Pittsburgh, my wife and I are glued to the TV, volleying taunts and insults back and forth, while I do the same with my brother-in-law through texts.

I am so gonna get slammed this year.

So much so that if the Chiefs are only able to win one more game for the rest of the season, I hope and pray that it’s this one. Of course, the Chiefs organization isn’t making an upset outcome look any likelier. It would’ve been nice to see Gibbs promoted earlier in the season. Would’ve been nicer, still, to see them keep their second-best CB on the team at least long enough to help hamper the pass-heavy Steelers offense.

History is a little bit on my side though. Since meeting my wife, the Chiefs and Steelers have only played twice before. One was last year where, though the Chiefs defense kept the score low enough, Palko* was just incompetent enough to allow the Steelers to win. This, obviously, isn’t in my favor. However, in 2009, a season in which the Chiefs wound up going 4-12, a season much the same as this one, one of the Chiefs’ four wins came against the Steelers in an OT victory so sweet that I can still taste it. As Succop lined up for the game-winning field goal, my wife attempted to flee the room. I say “attempted” because I was quick to bearhug her from behind and force her to watch her beloved (wretched) Steelers lose to a craptastic Kansas City team that was only 2-7 going into that game. It was, in a word, glorious.

*Or as my brother-in-law and I henceforth referred to him as: Brucie.

Palko knew he shouldn’t've eaten that popcorn

That was November 22^nd. We’re a little bit earlier this year. At this time in 2009 the Chiefs were 1-7 (sound familiar?). Hopefully the football gods will smile upon our Chiefs this coming Monday and give us (and especially me*) something to be happy about.

*Yes, I am being that self-centered.

To make things more interesting, my wife and I have the running bet that whenever our teams play one another the victor gets the bed all to themselves for that night, and the loser is relegated to the couch. Quite a suiting bet considering that by the end of the game we’ve spat so much crap at one another, and the victor is so heavily gloating and boastful, that we don’t want to be in the same room with another, let alone the same bed. The next day when the sore wounds have healed some, we determine the game’s MVP, also known as “Reason for Divorce” (what? I said when the wounds heal some).

What do you think, Addicts? Will a bad Chiefs team be able to beat the Steelers just as they did in 2009? Will my back be killing me on Tuesday? Do you have an odd/unique running bet you’d like to share in the comments? I’m all ears.

Until next time: (For the love of all that is holy) Go Chiefs!!!

The Kansas City Chiefs continued to break our hearts this past Sunday, getting trounced by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rumors have surfaced about Pioli’s (and even Crennel’s) future with the team. Though this article was pre-planned by a couple weeks, it’s actually as good a time as any to look ahead to the 2013 offseason to see how the Chiefs’ cards fall as it concerns the roster and salary cap.

To kickoff, let’s start out by listing which players’ contracts are expiring at the end of this season.

A few names that I’m sure have popped out are Albert, Bowe & Dorsey, as they’ve been the most talked-about players whose contracts will be expiring (such talk dating back to at least April), with a lot of that talk being related to how high of a contract these players may demand. Two other names that pop out to me (though whose contracts should be exponentially cheaper) are Colquitt and Gafford. Not only should a punter’s and long-snapper’s value to a team not be underestimated, but they’re among the only players who have been consistently performing up to standard all season.

A lot of how we view what player personnel changes should be made relies on a general idea of how much a player would likely demand and how much money is likely available for the team to use on these players. It’s the latter portion of this speculation that I (and my Spotrac-obsessed hind parts) primarily hope to shed light on this week.

At last announcement, the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million remaining in cap availability; though I’ve indicated in past that some of this money many be promised to players in the form of NLTBE incentives (and thereby wouldn’t show up until next season after the player has earned said incentive, we’ll assume for the sake of this exercise that either such NLTBEs were not set or, if they were set, weren’t met. So the Chiefs should have at least $14.5 million in cap space available next season by rollover alone, but how else is the team looking?

Running the numbers on next season’s non-FAs (read: guys that’ll still be on roster), I’ve discovered that the team currently is set to be allocating approximately $117 million towards cap hitting player expenses. It is likely that next year’s league defined cap will be in the same range as this year’s set cap which is $120.6 million. So, before factoring in rollover money, the Chiefs are only set to have about $3.6 million freed up to spend on FAs (regardless of whether they’re the Chiefs’ own or from other teams). That’s not counting the estimated $7 million dollars that will be required to spend on next season’s draft class. So, without the rollover, the Chiefs are in the hole $3.4 million.

Looks pretty bad at first glance, but let’s tack on the rollover money: that would put the Chiefs $11.1 million under cap after the rookie class is taken into consideration. Okay, now that doesn’t look as bad, but there are at least three big names up for FA and $11.1 million cap availability looks to be able to sign only one.

There appears to be a way around this, but it’s one that Pioli may not like as it involves two of “his” players:

1) Tyson Jackson, through “help” of a contract escalator, is set to be making $14.72 million in base salary next season and has also caused additional cap hits through bonuses amounting to $2.525 million. According to NFL.com’s Brian McIntyre (formerly of Mac’s Football Blog), Tyson Jackson’s 2013 base salary is only guaranteed for $3.22 million. So it looks like a certain someone should probably be cut. In doing so, the Chiefs would free up $11.5 million dollars in cap space (as indicated in a previous article, bonus money has a way of becoming dead money, so we’re looking at $14.72 million minus the guaranteed $3.22 million the Chiefs would be required to pay Jackson out of cap hitting funds). Now we’re up to $22.6 million in available cap space in 2013.

2) Matt Cassel. Though I’ve been unable to locate how much, if any, of Matt Cassel’s base salary for 2013 & 2014 is guaranteed, we’ll assume for this exercise that none of it is, and the only Chiefs obligation would come from bonuses. Cassel is currently set to cause a $9.825 million cap hit in 2013. Were he cut (and again assuming that none of the base salary is guaranteed), the Chiefs would be looking to spend $4.2 million in dead money, freeing up about $5.625 million in 2013. This would bring the available cap space to $28.225 million dollars (assuming a Jackson cut… and, at his ludicrous 2013 salary, why shouldn’t we want to see Jackson cut?).

Now, I realize I just threw out a bunch of numbers in sentence-form, which, if you’re anything like me, makes it a little harder to follow and reference. So to make the presentation of this information a little bit easier, I’ve devised the following table

“EOS” refers to the summation of the expected cap hit Entering the OffSeason (includes both players on roster, including Jackson and Cassel, and the rookie pool of approx. $7 mil). Current rollover is what it sounds like: money that may be expected to be rolled over and help alleviate the cap room. The $11.5 million in the “Jackson” column is what could be expected to be loosened up in cap space were TJax to be cut; same with the $5.625 million in the “Cassel” column.

So the question arises: how should this potential cap money be spent? To help facilitate this line of thinking I’ve developed the following hypothetical situations.

NOTE: One thing to remember in doing these hypotheticals is that, of the 18 positions open due to contracts expiring, seven will be filled through draft (at least as of now, and whose cap hit has already been accounted for in the figures) and two (the lowest priced ones) won’t count towards the cap (cap is determined by the highest 51 contracts of the 53-man roster come the regular season), so nine spots will need to be filled through re-signing the Chiefs FAs, or signing FAs from other teams, or signing UDFAs after the draft. These nine spots will cause a minimum cap hit of $3.51 million [determined as the minimum (rookie) contract of $390,000 X 9 spots].

Hypothetical Situation #1

For whatever reason (brain damage, maybe?), it’s decided to not cut Jackson or Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $11.1 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #2

You’re slightly less brain-damaged and decide to cut Cassel and leave Jackson be. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $16.725 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #3

You’ve decided to cut Jackson, but leave Cassel on board for back-up purposes (he’s an expensive back-up, but provides a veteran presence/experience at the position, so you think the harm to the cap outweighs allowing a rookie squad plus Stanzi to run solo). After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $22.6 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #4

You’ve made the decision to cut both Jackson and Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $28.225 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Bonus: Hindsight Hypothetical

Not knowing how this season would play out up to this point, you decide to sign all the players in FA that Pioli decided to sign, but you’ve decided to tweak the offseason slightly by also re-signing Carr. The terms of the agreement are the same terms the Cowboys offered him. For the sake of this hypothetical we’re assuming matching these terms would be enough for him to re-sign with the Chiefs, childhood dreams be damned. This season, Carr’s contract hits the cap by $3.2 million; in 2013, it hits the cap by $16.3 million. The rollover money is now $11.3 million (the current $14.5 million minus the $3.2 million cap hit). In adding Carr onto the 2013 roster, and taking rookie cap into account, the new 2013 cap obligations amount to $140.3 million. After deducting the new rollover amount ($11.3 mil), you’re down to $129 million in cap obligations. The league defined cap is still $120.6 mil; you have to come into compliance. Cutting Cassel wouldn’t be enough to come into compliance ($129 mil minus $5.625 mil is still greater than $120.6 mil), so your hand is forced in cutting Jackson to free up that $11.5 mil. Without additionally cutting Cassel (yet), the cap obligations decrease to $118.5 leaving only $2.1 million in available cap (not even enough to re-sign Colquitt). Now by cutting Cassel the available cap can be increased to $7.725. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

____________

Of the four, still possible, hypotheticals, I’d personally subscribe to Hypothetical Situation #4. Cutting Jackson seems to me to be a no-brainer (no way is he worth $17.245 million, and I’d rather tie up $5.745 mil in dead money in 2013 for the sake of having the remaining $11.5 million available to help with re-signing players or potentially dabbling in FA with other teams’ players). Though, with Quinn entering FA, cutting Cassel leaves the team without a QB on roster with regular season experience, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing the Chiefs “double-tap” the QB position in the draft (ideally, Geno Smith in Round 1 and, if he or someone like him drops so far, someone like Collin Klein in Round 3 – keeping in mind that the loss of Carr will likely earn the Chiefs a compensatory Round 3 draft pick); it’d be a risk, what with both players having no NFL experience, but it’s a risk I’d like to see be taken. I know, it’s probably crazy to draft two QBs such as the ‘Skins did this past draft with RGIII and Kirk Cousins, and especially crazy given the team I’m suggesting do it (our beloved Chiefs) given the team’s history in this regard, but God help me, if Klein is available later, despite the Heisman hype, I’d love to see a QB with his fight and passion as the #2 keeping guys pumped on the sideline, and I’d trust someone like him to not do any worse than the Chiefs QBs this year were a situation to arise where he’d have to play. I’m sure it’s a pipe dream, but that’s part of what this exercise is about.

As for how I’d like to see the freed up $28.225 million spent: I’d prefer to see Bowe and Albert re-signed for certain. Given the average costs of WRs and LTs of similar quality, this could cost as little as $8 million in 2013 (akin to Carr’s deal with the ‘Boys where he accepted an incredibly low base salary in the 1^st year of the contract, given that he still received $10 million in signing bonus this season, and just allowed the team to prorate it over the course of five seasons at $2 million a season) or it could cost as high as $20 million (taking the average cap hits of comparable players’ contracts). I’ll assume the 2013 costs to be somewhere in between at $14.225 total for both players (2014’s projected cap hit based on active contracts is only $84.894378, so a deal structure closer to Carr’s wouldn’t be nearly as damaging that year).

So, in my scenario, I’m down to $14 million available. I’d definitely re-sign Colquitt and Gafford who, combined, would likely hit the cap by $3.5 million in 2013, leaving $10.5 million available.

Given that I’d be cutting one starting DE (Jackson) and letting the other walk in FA (Dorsey), I’d probably re-sign Pitoitua (whose re-signing I’m estimating to hit the 2013 cap by $1.5 million) and would gun for a DE in either Round 3 (compensatory Carr pick) or Round 4 in the draft.

Down to $9 million in cap space, I might also bring back Edgar Jones and Lilja (estimating a $2.7 million combined cap hit in 2013, $800,000 for Jones and $1.9 mil for Lilja). Jones has been a boost to ST this year and provides okay LB depth (and is one less position to be targeted in the draft) and Lilja would provide reliable back-up depth, if nothing more, and would help keep the OL more intact as they continue to gel together in this year’s new zone blocking system.

Two cap-hitting roster spots remain in this scenario and I’ll assume they’ll be filled by rookie UDFAs (for a cap hit of about $800,000) bringing the remaining money down to about $5.9 million, which I might let ride into 2014.

For the draft I’d target: QB, ILB (I’m letting both Belcher and Siler walk after all), DE & DB (in that order of importance).

As for my thoughts on the “Hindsight Hypothetical”: Carr really doesn’t look like he’d have been worth it. With only $7.725 mil remaining, which is really only about $4.225 mil after deducting the minimum $3.51 mil for nine open roster spots (which I mentioned in my “note” up there), a ton of useful players would need to be allowed to walk and maybe one of Bowe, Albert or Dorsey (at absolute best) could’ve been re-signed. At risk to be replaced through rookies (by drafting or signing as UDFA) would’ve been QB (Cassel would’ve had to been cut, which looks like an inevitability now, but had he returned to 2010 form would be deemed a problem, and Quinn probably couldn’t be re-signed even if you wanted to), both starting DEs and one of the back-up DEs, two out of three starting OL positions (Albert & Lilja), star WR (Bowe), starting ILB (Belcher) and his best back-up option (Siler), the punter, the long snapper, and two veteran S’s (Daniels and Elam; leaving only current rookie Tysyn Hartman and rookie IR player De’quan Menzie as backups). That would be cause for a massive rebuild (all those positions can’t be addressed in the draft, and not early enough in the draft to be hopeful about the players’ ability to replace the lost players with an equal or higher level) and would put the Chiefs in a much, much worse position than the team currently finds itself in. Not signing Winston, Boss or Routt would’ve cleared up about a maximum of $10 mil to be rolled over into next season, and cleared up active contract requirements in 2013 to the tune of about $18.2 mil for a total of $28.2 mil. These are much nicer figures for signing at least two of the big three in 2013, but doesn’t address the issue of what to do about RT this season (whichever choice being made decreasing the rollover amount), or the depth at TE this season (a “contingency plan” being a top concern considering Moeaki’s early injury in 2011), and the secondary depth would still be the same it is today (meaning it would still not be good enough). Maybe things could’ve worked out, but considering it would require leaving nearly $24.5 mil in available cap this year (for the intent purpose of rolling the money over to help during the 2013 season), the heat from fans and media for any underperformance while having greater cap space availability would be even hotter than it is now; not to mention the heat turning up if Moeaki fell to injury without preemptive back-up efforts being made, or BRich received an extension.

As for whether or not the Chiefs should make a play on Matt Flynn or another prospect to help turn around this season now: just keep in mind that the acquisition of such a player would decrease the available funds for rollover into 2013, and that if such player had a contract for more than just this 2012 season you’d have to increase the cap numbers for 2013, too . This would also affect the hypotheticals and how likely it’d be to re-sign who you deem to be key players next year*. Trading for a QB or picking up a QB from FA (McNabb?? Garrard??) might not be as harmful as re-signing Carr could’ve been. The re-signing of Carr would have not only decreased how much cap was left to rollover into 2013 by $3 mil, but also would have added the obligation of a $16.3 mil cap hit to next season which is what would’ve made it so potentially damaging. So, if you feel a QB now would be worth the cost, feel free to hypothesize in the Comments section, just be mindful that how money is spent in this season does have an effect on what personnel moves may be made next season.

*Assuming that all that changes hands are Flynn and draft picks. If someone like Bowe were traded for Flynn directly, or traded to MIA for picks, and picks traded to SEA for Flynn, then the loss of Bowe’s salary would make up for the addition of Flynn’s. In that case both Albert and Dorsey could be re-signed next year, if so chosen, what with Bowe out of the mix.

Let me hear your thoughts. Which hypothetical would you use? Who would you re-sign? What positions (and maybe even who, specifically) would you target in the draft? After seeing a more comprehensive look at the cap figures, do you think signing Carr would’ve been more trouble than it was worth? Are you still frustrated about this year’s available cap space, even after seeing situations in which it might be put to better use next year? Do you feel a different QB now would be worth the cost elsewhere?

Let me hear it all; I’m curious as to what options my fellow Addicts think would be possible in terms of player personnel moves intended to make the 2013 Chiefs a more competitive team. Despite being mostly realistic, I was admittedly a little pie-in-the-sky with my hopes of drafting both Geno and Klein; feel free to do similarly (but let’s try to not go too extreme into complete delusion, as euphoric as it might be, and keep it more in the realm of realism and where we think our Chiefs might be headed).

Sound off, Addicts!

It’s been a rough week for the Kansas City Chiefs and their fans. That is also probably the understatement of the week. Negative attitudes are at a high, and there are so many things at work that it’s difficult to sort things through and address things equally and/or fairly. But here’s my perspective on the varying issues, maybe you’ll agree, maybe you’ll disagree, but hopefully I can bring a few things to light which may have previously gone unconsidered. Some of what I say will be supported by facts, some by speculation in the absence of publicly available facts (such as Pioli’s “master plan”, assuming he has one), but the main intent is to present information or perspective that may not be currently represented (or is, at least, underrepresented). As some (if not most… if not all) of these views are likely to be unpopular or underrepresented, I’m prepared for a hailstorm of comments to the contrary. In the interests of perpetuating a well-reasoned, well-thought-out discourse, I kindly request such comments remain cordial.

Chiefs Ownership

Though owned by the Lamar Hunt family, through Hunt Sports Group, through Unity Hunt LLC, when one thinks of Kansas City Chiefs ownership, one thinks of the family-elected CEO and Chairman Clark Hunt. Simply saying the name “Clark Hunt” will send chills down a large number of Chiefs’ fans spines.

Clark Hunt has been associated with cheapness, caring more about the bottom dollar than team success/glory, and caring less about the Kansas City fanbase and community. That he lives in Dallas, TX is usually a shot taken by fans and media as indication of his lack of caring for the fanbase and community, and that cap availability numbers inaccurately represent how much a team is spending on its players have given him the label of being cheap.

I do not agree with a lot of the negativity surrounding Clark Hunt. For those of you who read my  article two weeks ago, you should know by now that the Kansas City Chiefs have not been cheap in their player spending, having amassed the highest paid team in the NFL this season according to salary cap figures. If you did not read that article, it may be more conducive to your fair assessment of Clark Hunt to do so now. The article provides insight into team spending for all NFL teams and how certain aspects of salary cap management function. To summarize the article for the sake of expedience, Clark Hunt isn’t being cheap on the player spending. This also feeds into how much Clark Hunt cares about the bottom dollar. Though I’m sure the Hunt family’s business interests in the Chiefs would keep them from wanting the organization to start functioning in the red, the same could be said of any business’s or organization’s owner(s) ever. Something can only be supported for so long when it’s not earning revenues equal to or greater than its expenses. That’s just basic economics.

In regards to his consideration for the fanbase and for the Kansas City community, more consideration is being given than the Hunt family has been commonly assessed. One of the chief complaints is that the on-the-field product is not equating to what a lot of Chiefs fans consider to be fair prices for stadium attendance. They don’t feel they’re getting the bang for their buck; a sentiment that is amplified in rough economic times where how one spends what money one has is greatly scrutinized by the spender. So, how does the Chiefs’ gameday experience stack up against the 31 NFL teams? Every year Team Marketing Report in Chicago, IL researches this very question. Here is a chart of the average ticket prices for a fan to attend a game at each of the NFL stadiums; it should be noted the cost and quantity of premium seating is not included in these averages:

The average NFL ticket price is reported as $78.38, well above what the average ticket price to Arrowhead costs. Even factoring out the five highest ticket prices (all above $100) the average ticket price for the 27 lowest price teams is $71.84, still firmly above the Arrowhead average. What may be of additional interest is that Team Marketing Report also tracks the percentage changes in ticket prices for each NFL team. TMR determined that the average NFL ticket price has increased by 2.5% compared to last season. Fifteen NFL teams saw no change in their ticket prices. Of the remaining seventeen teams nine increased ticket prices [the lowest being the Seahawks by 1%, the highest being the Bears by 9.2%], and six lowered ticket prices. The Kansas City Chiefs are not only counted among the six NFL teams that lowered ticket prices, but KC decided to decrease their prices by the second-most percentage* [2.6%]. As part of their report, TMR provided the NFL average cost dating back to the 2007 season; even going back that far, the current Chiefs’ pricing does not meet or exceed the league average.

*Only the Bengals decreased their ticket prices by a greater percentage[4.2%]; however TMR’s research showed that, of the six clubs that decided to decrease ticket prices, the Bengals were one of two clubs that decided to lower ticket prices following lower fan attendance during the 2011 season; the second team being the Bills.

TMR also researched the average premium ticket costs and the cost of beer, soft drinks, hot dogs, parking, programs and caps as part of their study. Their figures on beer and soft drinks are based on the smallest sizes available at each stadium, and their figures on caps are based on the least expensive, adult-size adjustable caps at each stadium. In these categories, the Kansas City Chiefs exceed the league average in only two of them: 1) Hot Dogs – in excess of 66 cents, and 2) Average Premium Ticket costs in excess of $26.30.

As part of their report TMR created a cost index comprised of the costs of four average-price tickets, two small beers, four small soft drinks, four regular-size hot dogs, parking for one car, two game programs and two of the least expensive, adult-size adjustable caps. The reported cost index for such a gameday experience for each team is as follows:

As can be seen, the Chiefs rank as the fourth cheapest team in terms of the cost index. TMR determined that the average NFL cost index has increased by 3.9% compared to last season. Only two NFL teams saw no change in their cost index. Of the remaining thirty teams twenty-six saw an increase in cost index [the lowest increase being the Cardinals by 0.3%, the highest being the Bears by 16.3%], and four saw decreases in their cost index. The Kansas City Chiefs are not only counted among the four NFL teams that lowered the overall cost of an average gameday experience, but KC decreased their prices by the second-most percentage [1.6%] with only the Jets showing a greater decrease [1.9%].

So though some, including The Arrowhead Adventurer, may not care for certain organization initiatives, such as the switch to paperless tickets (thereby depriving fans of the memento of ticket stubs), savings are being passed onto the fans by making such changes (I, for one, always tended to rip/disfigure ticket stubs from any events I’ve attended and, as a result, do not partake in that particular keepsake practice… as such, I’d personally prefer more efficient line movement).

Does this forgive the disparity between on-the-field product and the associated costs? Not incredibly. We’d still all like to see the Chiefs be more competitive and in championship contention; an increase in quality without an increase in cost. But at least you’ve been afforded the opportunity to see what other teams’ fans are paying out on gameday, and I think we can all agree that being a Jets fan has to suck considerably more by a quality to cost comparison.

As for the Hunt family living in Dallas, this is the way it’s always been. Lamar Hunt’s ability to finance a football team came from the wealth earned by his father, H.L. Hunt, in conjunction with Hunt Oil. Though Lamar Hunt’s branch of the Hunt family tree no longer holds a stake in Hunt Oil, there are many other business ventures they do own a stake in which are, for the most part, based in Dallas. In the early days, when the Dallas Cowboys (who at the time were much less successful than the Dallas Texans) started taking attention away from Lamar Hunt’s beloved football team, and he resigned to the fact that sentiment was not enough to continue functioning in Dallas when the previous three seasons found the organization in the red, he sought to move that team to a city that would give a damn. The speculated options at the time were for a move to be made to either Oakland or Kansas City. After what was described as a “cloak-and-dagger” affair,  Kansas City’s mayor and Hunt agreed to stage a season ticket run to determine if the new city would be devoted enough to the sport to garner the team with the attention Lamar felt it deserved. Obviously Kansas City met Lamar Hunt’s expectations as we know that he moved the team there; however, what may not be known is that Kansas City fell far short of the set season ticket goal (25,000 tickets) in that they only sold tickets in the 13,000-14,000 tickets by the given deadline. Lamar still felt that the city showed enough devotion and passion (despite not meeting the ticket sales threshold) that he decided to move the Texans to Kansas City.

Nowhere is it mentioned or even suggested that Lamar Hunt agreed to pull up his family’s stakes to move to Kansas City. A lot of tradition and business interests already existed in Dallas for that to have been part of the deal. That same family tradition continues to this day. The Chiefs are but a part of Hunt Sports Inc., and Hunt Sports Inc. is but a part of Unity Hunt LLC. To expect numerous businesses, and a family’s tradition, to be uprooted for the sake of one of those business ventures (though the Kansas City Chiefs are the most recognizable) is asking a lot, and probably too much

Does this mean that the Hunts and the Chiefs don’t care about Kansas City? Not in the least. By my count the Hunts through the Kansas City Chiefs have 15 steady community service programs devoted to helping various aspects of the Greater Kansas City Community. Players are encouraged to actively participate in giving back to the community. And new initiatives such as the Chiefs partnership with the University of Kansas Medical School are geared towards ultimately helping the Kansas City community as a whole. These are not the actions of an ownership that doesn’t care about its fans or its team’s city’s citizens. In fact, their devotion to the community is a large part of why I am of a fan of the organization and have remained a fan through the tougher years; they may not always win (or even be competitive) but the organization’s devotion to contribute beyond what the game dictates is, by my estimation, admirable and should not be diminished by how they play 16 days a year.

Also, when it was obvious things were not progressing under Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards, Clark Hunt made a move to obtain one of the most decorated executives in the football industry, and spared no expense to bring him in to help the franchise (something an owner that doesn’t care wouldn’t do), which brings us to:

Chiefs Management

I don’t know what to think about Pioli. On the one hand Kent Babb has painted a pretty bad picture of Pioli. On the other hand, Babb also neglected to look into team finances and painted the Hunts as cheap on players though they appear to be anything but*, and generated negativity on that front where negativity wasn’t due.

Aside: I’m still astounded by that one. I’m a legal assistant in Pennsylvania, devoting nearly 60 hours a week towards my day job with a wife and 2-year-old daughter also garnering my attention, and I was still able to do more thorough research on that front (cross-checking my findings across many independent sources with no team affiliation for slant) and reported this as part of my contribution to this website. It was Kent Babb’s day job to do such things for which I’m sure he got amply paid, and he couldn’t do that much??? I guess I’m saying I’ve re-read Babb’s articles with a grain of salt as I am not satisfied with his research abilities (or lack thereof).

In Michael Holley’s book “War Room”, it is indicated (and I’m paraphrasing here) that when Pioli arrived in Kansas City, the Chiefs staff and scouts were complacent and unmotivated, which (by that point in the book) were distinguished as work habits in conflict with Pioli’s own work ethic. Holley (in juxtaposition to Babb) painted Pioli as a hard worker who would sooner have his work product exceed his paycheck than his paycheck exceed his work product.

If that is his work ethic, and the incumbent staff did not put their hearts into their jobs and strive towards the goal of making the Chiefs organization a championship product, I can understand the turnover ratio. There are no salary cap concerns in the front office; severance packages maybe (and they could be pillaging Hunt’s pockets for all we know), but not a set number that the organization may not exceed in accounting terms. If these people were not earning their paychecks (admittedly by Pioli’s standards), then I can understand Pioli taking swift action in terminating them and bringing in new people. I can even understand him bringing in people he knew from his time with the Patriots (as he likely had previous knowledge of these individuals’ work ethics, knowledge and talents).

The desire to have people who work for you do their damnedest and take more pride in doing their work in excess of expectations rather than taking the mentality of “I’m doing just as much as I think my pay warrants” (such people usually overestimating how much pay they’ve ‘earned’ through the work they’ve actually done) is also something I can understand, and would explain the so-called “wire-tapping”. I work for government, we have the same systems in check. E-mail, phone logs, etc. are monitored to determine how much company time the worker is spending on personal business (i.e. how much non-work they’re performing during hours they’re getting paid for). It isn’t incredibly shocking that a multi-million dollar business would partake in such monitoring. Again, if the workers were as complacent as Michael Holley indicated, it may be of utmost importance to changing the culture of football operations from people who care more for how much they could soak the organization for than how much they could contribute to the organization’s success.

If Pioli (or any other GM that could’ve been, or could still be, brought in) wanted to change a complacent culture satisfied with doing the bare minimum and having little interest in a championship that was gained by more than luck (if hard work was the alternative), I think we’d all be supportive of that change.

That being said, I doubt the candy wrapper story was made up, to which I can only say this: I can understand wondering why the hell you’re paying maintenance to do a job they’re obviously not doing (the wrapper was sitting for about a week after all… which by my count is at least 4 days too long, even if they were understaffed or only cleaned two to three days a week), but the taking of the wrapper as evidence makes the whole incident automatically extreme (and sounds on par with Mitch Hedberg’s “donut receipt” joke). That definitely could’ve been handled a lot better.

As far as his plans for rebuilding and his apparent secrecy of these plans are concerned, it’s frustrating as hell only being able to speculate what his intentions are/were. I, for one, believe (or maybe just really hope) that the plan was/is to build up the supporting cast first and drop in the intended franchise QB last. This would help prevent “David Carr Syndrome” or other 1^st round busts such as Brady Quinn was in Cleveland. Instead of custom building an entire team to one guy’s talents (thereby making it more difficult should that one guy go down), it would entail building a talented team and allowing the last guy (QB) to adjust to the talents around him (thereby making it less disastrous should that one guy go down temporarily). To get the QB first and build the team around him is akin to making the QB the entire foundation’s cornerstone. If it’s later learned that that cornerstone is not of the quality it was believed to be, the building stands to get irreparably damaged. To get the QB last is akin to building a quality structure first and using the QB as the capstone. If the capstone is of lesser quality than was expected, so what? It’s less damaging to the structure to replace a damaged capstone than to replace a damaged cornerstone. The downside is that, as fans, we don’t know if this is the plan until it happens. It could very well be. It could very well be that Cassel was perceived to be the guy for real (rather than a QB deemed adequate to man the helm while the rebuilding took place… I guess in my metaphor “the scaffolding”). Will Pioli say? No.

Which brings us to the secrecy. I can understand this to an extent. Part of the existence of a salary cap in the NFL is to promote competition and to provide no team with an unfair competitive advantage due to finances. But each team wants a competitive edge to build the strongest team possible within the restrictions of these limited resources. Kansas City is not a large market, so the competitive edge of “come here, we’ll make you famous” isn’t much of one for Chiefs execs (past, current or foreseeable future). Fan loyalty can help lure talent, but that’s more our thing than a FO thing. The Chiefs don’t have overwhelming, modern day championship prestige (yet). So what competitive edges can there be? I would reason that not letting your competition know your goals heading into deals would prove to be a great advantage. If everyone expected KC to draft a QB in the first round of next year’s draft (let’s say they finished with a pick lower than No. 1 Overall), and a move was made to jockey the team in the position to draft the QB of their choice, how much greater would the trade cost be knowing that the team’s intent is to draft a team’s most valuable asset (QB)? If, however, you lowered your trade partner’s expectations to believe that your intent is in the interest of drafting a lesser position player, that deal will likely become less costly (meaning that your own team can hold onto more assets, be it player, asset, or money to re-invest in another portion of the team). It’s a competitive edge built on manipulating others’ speculation of your intents, and there may be considerable success in doing so; unfortunately, the decision to put your competitor’s speculation in doubt also casts doubt within your fanbase’s speculation.

As for owning up to his mistakes, I’ll go back to Babb and the salary cap situation: Babb (local media) fabricated a negative misconception of something the Chiefs were actually doing well and it spread like a fire causing a wave of damage in its wake. That was with bad knowledge of a situation the team was actually doing pretty well. What could be expected of this same local media if Pioli admitted to an actual error? Holy bejeezus, that would not end well.

Overall, I can appreciate wanting personnel dedicated to making the franchise a perennial contender, and I can understand building the supportive components of a team up first before dropping in the franchise QB. It’s not the broad goals behind (what I think is) Pioli’s rebuilding plan I question, so much as Pioli’s execution of this plan. Keep the ideology, but do better at enacting the plan (or, Clark, find someone else who can).

Eric Winston

Spoke in a moment of passion. While morally justified in sentiment, he lacked the censorship to scope his claims down to only indicate the fans that partook in the behavior. CBA dictates that players are open to media. He spoke to media in conjunction with this clause. So, I really can’t begrudge him the action of speaking with the media.

I’ve been saying for weeks that negativity from fans affects the players more than fans might think. After weeks of negativity, and the greetings of a negative banner on Sunday, he construed some cheers as being in the morally negative bent. Looking through comments on various sites pertaining to this issue, it’s easy to find people admittedly partaking in this deplorable behavior (cheering a player getting injured), so Winston’s perception of the intent behind some of these cheers does hold some merit.

There is some understandable and justifiable betrayal felt on behalf of the fans (at least the portions whom, in a moment of passion, Winston lumped in with the bad ones), but attempting to look at thing empathetically from Winston’s point of view, the portion of fans that cheered Cassel’s injury are a part of the same fanbase whose overwhelming response to his FA visit convinced him to stop seeking potentially greater fortune, and a greater media market, elsewhere and to settle for less money if it meant great fans. He made a major life choice based on how great the fanbase presented itself to him, and in short time saw just how negative the fanbase/local media could get [the local media is crawling with negativity, fans (though not all) have been acting out in negative fashions for weeks (even if just verbally), and it culminated with a portion of those fans doing something so deplorable and anti-supportive of the players]. Given that consideration, I wouldn’t be surprised if Winston felt a little bit of betrayal, too.

Ultimately my point on this is that fan attitude does affect player attitude, and this whole fiasco is a case in point.

Fans who cheered Cassel’s injury

Winston was correct in stating that this is not the Roman Coliseum and the players are not gladiators.

For those that use the flawed logic that NFL stadiums are constructed in the image of the Roman Coliseum so football is like the modern equivalent, you should probably know that the architectural design of NFL stadiums is not intended as an allegory to ancient Rome. The Romans designed the Coliseum as they did because it architecturally allowed for greater seating capacity. The properties of such design haven’t changed, and this is why stadiums are made in such a fashion. Incidentally, uncomfortable-as-all-get-out bleacher seating may also be used to accommodate more people. It’s an attendance maximization thing, not a throwback to days of yore.

For those that use the logic that “it’s okay to cheer MMA and boxing, so why not a football player’s injury?”, you should probably know that the rules are different going into each contest. Beating the crap out of each other is an integral part of MMA and boxing matches, and the participants willingly submit themselves to such punishment. Incidentally, it’s not unheard of for professionals in these sports to schedule matches several months apart to accommodate for the fact that they’re going to get brutalized and need copious amounts of time to recover in between bouts. Injuries in football, on the other hand, are incidental to the sport (not integral) and any action done by a player to intentionally injure another (or even that increase the odds of injury, such as helmet-to-helmet shots) are generally frowned upon. Remember that whole Bounty scandal thing? Yeah, the main part of that was the targeting of players for the purpose of injury (that money may or may not have been put towards these goals is secondary). Remember all those fines players accrue for helmet-to-helmet hits? Yeah, that’s what those are about, too.

There’s no denying that big hits or hard hits get a viewer’s adrenaline going, or that it is pants-crappingly awesome to see a player pop back up from such hits like they’re no big deal. But sometimes those players don’t bounce back up, and that’s when it’s time for humanity to kick back in. Maybe if the injury is a more minor one (ankle sprain, broken finger, etc.) to an opponent’s superstar, you can thank your lucky stars that your team got a reprieve from his awesomeness for the rest of the game, but when you get into potentially life-altering injuries such as concussions, ACL tears and the ilk, it’s time to dial it down.

To those of you convinced that Cassel’s injury is the only thing that would take him out of the line-up and that your voice isn’t being heard, you may be right, you may not be right. Maybe Cassel really was the best QB on the squad (I just vomited in my mouth a little). That being said, I personally didn’t care for the public display of discord by use of a banner flying over Arrowhead; such displays have the potential to place the fanbase as a whole in a bad light. That being said, I respect that you care so much about your team to spend extra money for such a display,

I would suggest and alternative: it may go against younger generations’ grain to not make public statements (ala Facebook or Twitter), but there’s a thing called letter writing that involves a pen and paper which would be more low key (as in less inflammatory to the fanbase) and cheaper, too. I’m in no way condoning sending threatening letters to One Arrowhead Drive (that’s kind of illegal), but sending letters highlighting your devotion to the team and expressing your disapproval of certain things that are being done which you don’t agree with (preferably with well-reasoned arguments, as you’d be taken more seriously) might be much more effective. As I write this, it occurs to me that Lamar Hunt was fond of conducting business via letter writing (even as technology advanced into allowing more instant communications), so to do so as a fanbase may very well strike a personal chord within the Hunt family as it pertains to fan concerns. The least that could be expected? Solid evidence of fans’ concerns that can’t be as easily discarded and ignored as pressing a “Trash” button in e-mail. Pioli flipped over a candy wrapper, how much attention do you think will be paid to stacks of letters filling up the joint?

Hopefully some of what I said has shed new light on certain things. Again, some of it is speculation, so my guess is as good as yours, but hopefully you have gotten to considering alternative intents. Tune in next week when I’ll be looking forward to 2013’s expected cap hits/player personnel moves. As always, Go Chiefs!!!

Following a disappointing loss at home to the San Diego Chargers, the Chiefs will stay inKansas City again this Sunday, this time to square off against the Baltimore Ravens. Needless to say, with the way the Chiefs have been playing thus far, this game is likely an easy write-off for most Kansas City fans, but despite this (and after a two week hiatus), I’ve decided to soldier on in the Know Your Enemy series.

Offense

The Baltimore Ravens are currently ranked 5^th in the NFL for scoring on the season, and are performing so well that some analysts and pundits have opined that the Ravens’ offensive performances have actually been exceeding its defensive performances (compared to the previous decade or so of being an indisputably defensive juggernaut).

The Ravens’ offense is steered by QB Joe Flacco. Flacco made some noise over the offseason, proclaiming himself as an “elite quarterback.” Most people chuckled to themselves upon hearing this, but he has put in a commendable season thus far. While I am not willing to label him as elite quite yet, Flacco has played with poise and engineered one fourth-quarter comeback on the year thus far (Week 3’s controversial win over the New England Patriots). In four games, Flacco has completed 63.5% of his passes for 1,269 YDs and 7 TDs, good for a passer rating of 95.8.

But what is a QB without a few good targets to throw to? Though I would not put the Ravens receivers on par with the Falcons receivers (Roddy, Julio, and Gonzo) they may well have the same amount of talent (or slightly more) spread across five players in WRs Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Jacoby Jones, and TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. The most notable of these five are Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta.

Though largely ineffective in last week’s game, Pitta has 18 catches for 188 YDs and 2 TDs on the season and appears to be a valuable target for Flacco in the red zone. Though not receiving quite the targets that Pitta is receiving, Ed Dickson also can contribute quite a bit at TE when called upon and should be perceived as something of a threat.

Meanwhile, Torrey Smith is looking to have a breakout year, having already registered 16 catches for 332 YDs and 3 TDs on the season. Some in-game commentators have sounded shocked by Torrey Smith’s on field production; however, I personally don’t find this too shocking considering that he put up pretty decent stats last season (50 catches for 841 YDs and 7 TDs) despite both having his rookie preseason shortened by the lockout and playing a significant chunk of the season with a hamstring injury.

Between Anquan Boldin and Jacoby Jones, you might think that Boldin is the bigger threat, which he may well be becoming, but up until last week Boldin has been relatively disappointing this season, not getting much separation (and, consequently, targets) during the first three games. No, after Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta, Jacoby Jones looks to be the next biggest receiving threat on this Ravens offense. Having watched all of the Ravens’ games this season, I swear Jacoby Jones seems to be good for two to three HUGE catches per game thus far. Even if Jones doesn’t appear to be much of a factor during the first three quarters of the game, the Chiefs defense should not sleep on him because he has been showing week in and week out that he can be relied upon to make crucial, fourth quarter catches even if they’re among his only targets of the game.

As for the Ravens backfield, Ray Rice continues to impress both on ground and through the air. If Flacco and the passing offense didn’t step up their game this year, you might hear a lot more chatter about Rice. Instead, it seems like Rice’s consistently great play is so expected that the passing game is the new hot thing to talk about. Rice also factors into the passing game receiving and is currently topping the Ravens charts with the most receptions (though with, understandably, less yardage given where his routes take him).

As for their offensive line, the Ravens could be doing a little better. C Matt Birk is 36 years old, and while he’s still an excellent center, a lot of his excellence comes from his knowledge of the game as his physical abilities are in decline, and LT Michael Oher of “The Blind Side” fame is not quite as good on the blind side as you’d expect him to be. I know several Ravens fans griping about wanting the team to move him back to RT where he fares better and trying again on the drafting a LT front. RT Kelechi Osemele is a rookie, LG Ramon Harewood is in his second year (though it is his first year playing in games), and RG Marshall Yanda is in his fifth.season. Yanda has been elected to the Pro Bowl once and may be Baltimore’s best OL at the moment in terms of age, position and ability.

Defense

As previously stated, the Ravens defense is starting to get overshadowed by their offense; however, this does not mean their defense is bad or even average. As much as the Ravens defense has been underperforming compared to last year (when they were No. 2 Defense overall), they are still a top ten defense (coming in at No. 10 right now).

In case you’ve been living under a rock and haven’t heard, the Ravens defense is anchored by timeless players MLB Ray Lewis and S Ed Reed. Though the good news is that these guys are a year older and a bit more of their age is showing, the bad news is (that like Tony Gonzalez) even a slightly less physically capable Lewis and Reed can still be counted among the elite at their positions. Also showing age is NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu who is actually starting to show greater signs of wear.

Besides Reed and Lewis,Baltimore’s next two greatest defenders are DE Haloti Ngata and S Bernard Pollard. You probably know Pollard from such KC snafus as “letting go of Bernard Pollard.” And if you don’t know who Ngata is or what he is capable of, you really should consider just getting rid of that aforementioned rock you’ve been living under.

One positive about facing the Ravens current defense is that they are fronting some lesser experienced players right now. The DE opposite Haloti Ngata is Pernell McPhee, a fifth round draft choice by the Ravens taken in last year’s draft. Due to the loss of LB Terrell Suggs to injury and the loss of LB Jarret Johnson to free agency, the Ravens have been forced to play with rookie Courtney Upshaw and 3^rd year player Paul Kruger at OLB and second year player Albert McClellan at MLB..

CBs Lardarius Webb and Cary Williams flesh out the starting defense, and though capable backs, are overshadowed by the stellar safety play.

Special Teams

Baltimore’s kick returner duties are handled by rookie WR Deonte Thompson and the Punt Returner duties are handled by Jacoby Jones. The Ravens’ kick return game is currently slightly better than the Chiefs’, and their punt return game is slightly worse.

Both teams’ kickers and punters look to be about a wash thus far this season, with Ravens P Sam Koch posting similar stats to Colquitt, and rookie K Justin Tucker posting comparable stats to Succop. Justin Tucker replaces Billy Cundiff at kicker after Cundiff messed up what should have been an easy kick last season in the AFC championship which kept the Ravens from the Super Bowl. It is yet to be seen if Tucker can make such clutch kicks himself, with his only real opportunity to do so this season being during the Ravens win against the Patriots in Week 3. In the last seconds of the game, Tucker shanked a FG far right of center, but luckily it was high enough to go over the top of the goalpost rather than banking off the goal post and according to the NFL Rule Book over the post counts as between the posts and such a play is non-reviewable as only the official directly underneath the post was in any position to make the call. Whether this kick was Tucker experiencing very good luck masking non-clutch play, or whether he experienced bad (but not quite bad enough) luck to turn what would normally be a clutch kick into a near miss is anyone’s guess at this point. If the game’s on the line and the ball isn’t within the 25 yard line, I’d probably be holding my breath were I a Ravens fan until enough time and opportunity passes to determine whether or not my kicker could hit a clutch kick.

_______

As a Chiefs fan, it is admittedly hard to go into this game with a positive outlook. If the Chiefs offense (and particularly Cassel) can play turnover-free football, there might be a fighting chance. And I don’t mean a zeroed out turnover differential where a Cassel INT is canceled out by the defense forcing a turnover. This offense, under Cassel, is likely to not be mentally tough enough to put up with one more turnover, even if it’s made up for by the defense later in the game.

But I will remain positive going into this game for one major reason: negativity is not helping this franchise succeed, and may very well be helping to make it worse.

A scientific study performed at California State University back in 2009 looked into what causes “choke” and “clutch” performances. In a nutshell, the study determined that when an individual first learns a skill, they learn it explicitly; the thought process is methodical, and the motion mechanical (slower and more awkward). After time and practice, these skills develop into becoming implicitly performed, quickly and smoothly. In the realm of pro sports, quick and smooth action tends to be paramount to success (if you telegraph a decision by going about it slower in thought and execution, bad stuff tends to happen). In studying what causes some people to choke and some to be clutch, it was determined that, as pressure to succeed gets higher, how the individual copes with the pressure has a lot to do with how they fare overall. The “chokers” allow the pressure of the situation to seep into their consciousness, they get so concerned with the implications of how they’ll perform their task that they’ll revert back to thinking of the task explicitly; their actions get slow and choppy and they tend to fail (which makes sense since they’ve basically reverted back to how they performed the task when they first learned, a/k/a when they sucked most at the task). Those capable of putting the gravity of the situation out of mind are more likely to be able to perform the task implicitly and, having refined thought and movement, are much more likely to succeed (“be clutch”).

Assuming the findings of this study are true (and I’m apt to believe them as they make perfect sense to me), being demonstratively loud and negative towards people you want to succeed appears to be counteractive to the results you want. Pressure to perform is increased, and the more pressure that mounts, the more likely the individual(s) will perform even poorer. If negativity is only going to exacerbate the problems, I’m not gonna be a part of that.

All this being said, do what you like in showing either your support or dissent, but if you do approach the situation negatively, don’t be the least bit surprised if your actions garner negative results; and not just negative results in the form of current players’ performances, but negative results in the form of luring talented people to the team to perpetuate an upgrade. If Pioli does get fired, Double D may be right in predicting Marty to be his successor; no good person without pre-existing ties to this franchise will likely want to step into such a volatile and hostile environment.

Here’s hoping for a win on Sunday. Go Chiefs.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Well, Chiefs fans, for those of you who read my article last week, you should’ve walked away knowing a little bit more about salary cap management. You may or may not have jumped to my rallying cry to show the player and team some love, and let the NFL world know that when they go up against the Chiefs they’re not just going up against the players and coaches, they’re going up against every Chiefs fan that bleeds red and gold.

Whether you did or not certainly depends on the individual. Some of you may be too disgusted by Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli’s management of your beloved Chiefs to look past your perception of them and root for the players. After all, Hunt and Pioli are cheapskates (to use the nicer term), right?

Well, according to Spotrac.com, it appears that, of the 32 NFL teams, the Kansas City Chiefs are spending the most cap dollars of any team on active player contracts in 2012.

I’ll wait for you to seek medical attention for your broken jaw; mine slammed pretty hard off of my desk, too…

That was not a misprint: the Kansas City Chiefs, owned by Clark Hunt and family, managed by Scott Pioli, appear to be paying the most of any team on active player contracts this season. Take a look for yourself:

Now, I want to be clear. Spending “the most cap dollars… on active player contracts” does not necessarily mean that the Kansas City Chiefs are using/accounting-for the most cap dollars overall, it means that they’re paying the most cap money towards players currently on the team.

What does that mean?

Though most news outlets will report cap space availability for teams, this is a new day and age, and comes with it a new CBA, wherein available cap space money can be rolled into the next year without the need for teams to exploit loopholes*. This will affect how much cap dollars a team can spend on its players in a given season. This can really alter each team’s cap room which, in turn, will make cap space availability numbers a little less useful without context.

*It used to be that NLTBEs were accounted into the cap during the season they were set, and were the only cap dollars that could be rolled over, provided the player the NLTBE was assigned to didn’t earn it. So to rollover remaining cap monies, teams could make a ridiculous NLTBE late in the season that had no way of happening, say setting an NLTBE in Week 15 that would have your 3^rd string QB receiving all remaining cap dollars if he could throw 10 TDs by the end of the season. He, of course, wouldn’t, but since the NLTBE was accounted for, but not met, the money could be rolled over into the next season. The new CBA made adjustments to this by just letting teams rollover cap dollars without the need for trickery, and having NLTBEs count against the next season’s cap should they be met.

Ex: Let’s say Team A rolls over $1 million from last year’s season into this year’s season, and Team B rolls over $20 million. If after spending, both teams find themselves with a cap availability of $1 million, it won’t be because both teams spent the same amount of money. Rather, Team B would’ve spent more money as it spent both the league defined cap, plus $19 million of the $20 million it rolled over; whereas Team A would’ve only spent the league defined cap, and just didn’t touch its rollover.

But even that is only a portion of how people can confuse salary cap availability with money spent by the club on its active players’ contracts. In the NFL’s salary accounting policies and procedures, there is a certain thing that negatively impacts a team’s salary cap, that doesn’t seem to get a lot of media attention: dead money.

What is dead money? (you ask because you don’t use contractions)

Dead money is generated when a player leaves a team (usually by being cut, but sometimes through retirement or a trade*) and certain parts of their contracts were either guaranteed or solely within the club’s responsibility to pay (e.g. signing bonus). It gets its name because, even though the player is no longer with the team, and therefore doing the team no good, the money must be absorbed and paid for by the club, and it does cause a cap hit. So any dead money that exists keeps a club from spending that much more money on players who are (or can be) signed to the 53-man roster.

*For those left wondering, whether you thought to ask yourself or not, players willfully leaving, or willfully being allowed to leave,  via FA don’t generate dead money, as their contract would’ve been fully satisfied, and there’d be no money left unpaid for a team to absorb.

Ex: Team A and Team B each have a salary cap of $100 million (for the purposes of this example there were no rollovers). Team A has dead money to the tune of $10 million. Team B has dead money to the tune of $2 million. After spending the money on this year’s team, it’s reported that Team A has $1 million in cap availability and Team B has $5 million in camp availability. At face value, and since availability gets reported much more heavily than dead money figures, it appears that Team A is spending more money on their current team than Team B. This is an incorrect assumption. After deducting each team’s dead money from their initial cap, Team A had $90 million to spend for the year, and Team B had $98 million. So though Team A appears on the surface to have spent more money on current player contracts (what with $1 million left compared to Team B’s $5 million left) doing the math shows that Team A has actually only spent $89 million on this year’s roster [$100 million (cap) - $10 million (dead money) - $1 million (available money)]; whereas Team B has actually spent the greater sum having devoted $93 million cap dollars on this year’s roster [$100 million - $2 million - $5 million].

Let’s take a look at each team’s dead money figures:

It should be noted that $460,000-520,000 in dead money is pretty well par for the course for any team in a given year, just due to cuts to fringe players. Here you’ll see the Chiefs have the 7^th least amount of dead money affecting this season’s cap with $2,117,187. Interestingly enough, Demorrio Williams accounts for $1.6 million of this figure, with the remaining $517,187 being spread between 7 different (former) players with Gabe Miller accounting for the second highest figure ($148,875) and Brandon Bair, the least ($4,666).

Another pitfall in using cap availability in judging how much a team is spending on its players’ contracts is, as I touched on last week, that LTBE goals will, for accounting purposes, appear as cap hits on the current season’s salary cap, but whether or not players will earn this/these goal(s) is, of course, not a guarantee until it happens.

So to a common observer who a) doesn’t consider how rollovers affect the cap, b) doesn’t consider dead money and c) doesn’t consider how things such as LTBEs must be taken into account, it’s a quick and easy jump to assume that the more cap space a team has available, the less money that team is spending on its current team. This is the Kansas City Chiefs’ current plight. Fans see that $14.5 million in cap space is remaining, the third most in the league, and assume that Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli are cheap bastards (to use the less nice term). Many Chiefs fans are furious that they’re not spending more. However, as stated at the beginning, of all 32 teams, the Kansas City Chiefs appear to be spending the most cap money this season towards active player contracts.

But how can that be? Wasn’t it just reported back in February that the Chiefs had $63 million in cap space remaining?

At the time that that report was released a few things were taken into account that increased that figure, while several things were not taken into account that would lower that number. Basically, the reported figure was artificially larger than it actually was.

Namely, the $63 million figure included the $24 million (approx.) that the Chiefs rolled over from last season*, but it did not include contract escalators (which, by the way, tend to be non-negotiable devices built into contracts) which amounted to approximately $18 million. Nor did this figure include the money the team was required to pay out to players for NLTBEs offered to them and achieved during the 2011 season and estimated to be about $5 million. Nor did it include money for RFA Tenders (which really wound up just being Jovan Belcher’s for $1.9 million).

*The Chiefs announced through their official team site that they were rolling over $20 million; however sites such as NFL.com, ESPN & Spotrac reported the rollover as approximately $24 million. Given these sites reputability and independence from the organization, we’ll assume the higher number

After deducting the values that were not deducted prior to the report’s release, the Chiefs’ so-called available funds dip to about $38 million (a much more believable figure). Now deduct for Routt’s signing, Dwayne Bowe’s franchise tag and Jovan Belcher’s RFA Tender and we’re down to about $22 million, which is what was reported just before free agency.

Now deduct for the signings of Winston, Boss, Hillis, Quinn, and the rookie class, deduct for the re-signing of Travis Daniels, add money that was freed up through the restructuring of Tyson Jackson’s contract, deduct for Abram Elam and Edgar Jones, and we’re down to $16.5 million. As suggested in last week’s article, it is likely that the $2 million differential between this $16.5 million and the current $14.5 million is due to LTBEs being set for this season.

Okay, so now I see how they went from $63 million to $14.5 million, but if how much the Chiefs are paying on active player contracts is correct, it only appears to be about $8 million over the league defined cap… Pioli just did an interview a week or so ago where he said the Chiefs were spending about $20 million cash over the cap this season.

You are correct in your observation that the contracts amount to about $8 million over the league’s defined base cap. That being said, Scott Pioli is correct that the team is spending about $20 million cash over this same cap.

Alright, now you’re just $*%#@!# with me.

There is a difference between how much cap dollars a team spends in a given season, and how much “committed cash” it spends in a given season. While some things, such as base salary, workout bonuses, roster bonuses, etc., count equally towards both cap dollars and committed cash [Ex: $1 million base salary accounts for $1 million towards the cap and $1 million towards the cash], other things, such as signing bonuses and option bonuses, are accounted for differently.

Ex: Eric Winston signed a 4 year deal that comes with an $8.4 million signing bonus. The entirety of this signing bonus was given to him right away; however, it’s prorated over the course of the 4 year deal so that it hits the cap equally each contract year. So this particular deal is hitting the cap by $2.1 million this year, but hits the committed cash by $8.4 million this year.

Obviously, Winston’s contract isn’t the only contract lending to the difference in cap dollars and committed cash, but at least you can see how the difference comes about.

__________

So, are Pioli and Hunt cheap bastards? Looking at cap availability alone one would think “yes”; however, everything else seems to indicate otherwise. When the Chiefs announced the rollover of last year’s cap space into this season, Clark Hunt stated that the rollover money would be put to use in continuing to re-sign the Chiefs free agents, as well as to go out and sign some free agents from other teams.

The FO lived up to Clark’s word.

Beginning the 2011 season, the Chiefs had 27 players set to hit FA this past offseason. By controlling the player budget enough that Pioli had some idea of how much money could be rolled over, he was able to re-sign Hali and Flowers to extensions early on in the season, and re-signed Succop to an extension in December (and look how huge that turned out being this past weekend). The team also brought back Brandon Siler, Cory Greenwood, Jake O’Connell, Travis Daniels and Amon Gordon (with only Gordon not working out… by the way, no dead money was generated by Gordon’s short-lived contract). Bowe received the Franchise Tag and Jovan Belcher an RFA Tender which, though not as good as extensions, were at least enough to assure their return to the team (and had some other team picked up Bowe at the cost of 2- 1^st Round Picks, or Belcher for the cost of 1- 2^nd Round Pick, something tells me us fans could’ve lived with it). Of the 17 players that hit FA but were not retained, Carr and Orton are likely the only two to complain about. Six were contemplating retirement, four were just terrible, one couldn’t stay healthy with the Chiefs, and four were still perceived as desirable enough to be picked up. The Chiefs, in turn, picked up Routt, Winston, Boss, Hillis, Quinn, Abram Elam, and Edgar Jones as far as players on roster and hitting the cap go. They also picked up Kyle McCarthy, Martin Rucker and Jacques Reeves who all find themselves on IR and don’t count against the cap.

That’s a pretty good offseason. To be where they’re currently at cap-wise, but to have retained Carr, likely would’ve meant no Routt, no Boss and no Winston. To use more of the cap than is currently available (say by re-signing Carr but still signing Routt, Boss & Winston) means making a tougher time of re-signing the Chiefs pick of next seasons 17 scheduled free agents, and not having much money available to take advantage of other teams’ cap casualty cuts (i.e. next year’s Routts, Boss’s & Winstons).

Some of you might not like to hear it, or even want to accept it (even after all the work I just put in showing how they’re spending money and spending it wisely), but it appears the money isn’t being pocketed, and the current regime isn’t likely to end anytime soon. In fact, it looks like things are getting in order (non-Pioli-negotiated contracts are on the way out) and Pioli & Co. are just hitting their stride. But it should be a positive to know that Clark Hunt does care about the team’s success more than he cares about pocketing the money. Now if only the coaches and players can maximize their talents and do it on a consistent basis, we might just have ourselves a team worthy of championships…

Well, Addicts, if nothing else you’ve come away from this knowing more about your favorite NFL team. Maybe you’ve already given up too much hope to reverse the lynch mob, but the management seems to be giving all they can to the team and the fans; looks like it’s time for the team and the fans to reciprocate. While the team leaves it all out on the field on Sunday, why don’t we be there to back their efforts, and give Philip “Cry Me A” River(s) another miserable Arrowhead experience. GO CHIEFS!!!

This upcoming Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs head down to New Orleans to give the Saints a time of it. Given that the Saints have been in the national limelight for years (for both good and bad reasons), and that I haven’t been the only staff writer inspecting the upcoming opponent, I’ve decided to take a hiatus on Know Your Enemy this week and address another issue.

It has come to my attention that there are Chiefs fans out there complaining about the Chiefs cap. I don’t see a problem with it. I mean, scroll up and take a look at that bad boy.

Isn’t it great?

What human being could resist the urge to pounce on the debonair gentleman or courtly lady enlightened enough to don this sexy piece of Chiefs apparel? The wearer instantaneously lets others know that they’re not only intelligent, loyal and a humanitarian, but also that they have a keen fashion sense, all by sporting such an adornment on their crown. Heck, it might as well be a crown.

As for the complaints about cap room, unless your Mr. Moneybags and got a fitted cap, there should be a strap in the back you can adjust to tighten it up… Hold on a sec…

They meant salary cap?…

Are you sure???

Okayyyy. Luckily I know a thing or two about how that works.

Following the Falcons Week 1 aerial assault against the Chiefs’ lacking defense, it was clear to all that Kansas City’s CB depth, or lack thereof, should be an area of great concern (and after Sunday’s whomping by the Bills that concern probably extends to the entire defense). This observation was shortly followed by the announcement that the Chiefs still have $14.5 million in available salary cap space (misconstrued by some as being as high as $30 million). An ugly incident occurred through Twitter and Reddit, and even parties not directly involved in this exchange took to the Web to express their own displeasure over KC’s secondary issues and why it shouldn’t exist given the Chiefs’ available cap room; the common consensus being that Clark Hunt (and family) and Scott Pioli must be cheap bastards.

I can’t deny the Chiefs’ secondary concerns, and even wrote about this concern myself during the preseason. But I’m not sold on the salary cap being what it is as a matter of cheapness. No, I’m much more inclined to believe that the cap will be spent on players, just a little bit down the road and in such a way that the cap room currently looks deceptively large. I’ve already pondered that Pioli and the FO may want to roll the available cap into next season to help retain players such as Bowe, Albert and/or Dorsey and/or have cap space remaining to sign some bigger names entering free agency.

But another option exists. One that would pay the Chiefs’ current players more, but only if they can produce on the field. That option is the incentive bonus.

But isn’t that accounted for in the salary cap?

Glad you asked. There are two types of incentive bonuses: those Likely To Be Earned (LTBE), and those Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE). Only LTBEs are accounted for in the salary cap during the season they are expected to be earned. NLTBEs being what they are, not likely to be achieved, are not deducted from the cap in the season they are earned, but rather from the following season’s salary cap. This is where it might pay the Chiefs organization to carry extra money into the 2013 season.

Why take that precaution if the goals are not likely to be earned?

While the goals that are set are determined by the team, the nomenclature of whether such goal is likely or not likely to be earned is determined by league definition. Simplistically, an LTBE goal is one that was attained during the previous season and is therefore expected to be duplicated, whereas an NLTBE goal is a higher goal than was achieved in the previous season and is not considered to be expected to be met. Example: Dwayne Bowe had 5 TDs during the 2011 season. An LTBE goal for him this season would be to get 3 TDs; whereas an NLTBE goal would be 8 TDs (even though Bowe exceeded this goal in 2010).

So what happens if an LTBE goal or an NLTBE goal isn’t met?

If an LTBE goal isn’t met by season’s end, the money that was earmarked for that player/unit is released into the available cap space and may be rolled over into the next season. If an NLTBE goal isn’t met, it just doesn’t have an impact on the current, or next, season’s salary cap.

What kind of goals may these be?

The CBA identifies three categories of incentive goals: (1) Team Incentives, (2) Individual Incentives & (3) Honors and Recognized Media Incentives. Team Incentives and Individual Incentives can be made in most every major statistical category you can think of. Honors and Recognized Media Incentives pertain to the larger honors (Pro Bowl Selection, All-Pro Selection, etc.).

__________

On September 7^th, Pro Football Talk reported that the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million in available cap space. The latest report prior to this indicated that the Chiefs had approx. $16.5 million in available cap space. No player additions that would’ve affected the team’s accounting were made in the interim, so the safe bet is that the approx. $2 million differential comes from the making of LTBE goal(s). It should be noted that “win the division” is always considered, by definition, to be an LTBE, and it’s likely that such a goal accounts for some of this differential.

What isn’t known is how much of the remaining cap space is earmarked for the potential earning of NTLBEs. Again, the team’s or player’s performance from the previous season determines whether a goal is likely or not likely, and we can all agree that the 2011 season was disappointing. It wouldn’t take setting goals too high for them to be considered Not Likely To Be Earned. But such goals could include finishing with a winning record, making a deep playoff run, etc.

These are things that both the Chiefs organization as well as its fans want, and are within the potential of the team to earn. But paying the money upfront does not guarantee the player/unit/team will fulfill their potential. In fact, by setting things up so that the players only receive the money by earning it makes perfect sense. If the players earn the money, then great, it’ll mean the team has succeeded to a desirable level, the players will get the money they deserve, and, thanks to the cap management, the money can be paid out without putting the team in a compromising position that would require “cap casualty cuts” next season. If the players don’t produce, that’ll suck, but at least significant rollover cap funds will be available next season to help pull in free agents that may stand a greater chance of helping this team get to where it wants to be.

I know not having Brandon Carr sucks, especially considering the defensive failures of the first two games. But you know what else sucks? Cutting valuable players because you played fast and loose with your cap, and paying players a lot more than they’ll ever earn for the same reason.

More is going on behind the scene than meets the eye. For as much as Pioli gets demonized for this, that and the other thing, I’m not convinced that he’s deserving of such scorn. The way some people would spin it, every letdown the Chiefs experience, collectively or individually, is squarely on Pioli’s shoulders. But one person can’t control the actions of others. Limit their actions, maybe, but not control them. The coaches are not currently living up to their potential. Same with the players. Oh, they have shown at points in the past that they can perform much better than they have been; they just haven’t gotten a handle on it this season thus far. I’m not going to blame Pioli for these individuals’ failures. Their failures belong to them.

Now, I don’t profess to know what exactly is causing these failures. But I do know that I still love the Chiefs. And like with any loved one that makes a mistake, I’m not gonna go into a rage, verbally berate them and tell them to do better or else. I have been appalled at the amount of people that so quickly jumped to that reaction. Such actions have a way of demoralizing any person, and a lack of morale is the last thing this team needs right now. No, I’m gonna support my beloved Chiefs and encourage them to start performing at the level I know they’re capable of, and I appeal to all of you to do the same. A while back, one commenter made the statement that the home crowd shouldn’t make a difference in how well a team performs, and if that’s the case, why is homefield advantage such a huge deal come playoff time? I’ll tell you why: it’s because fan support does matter, it matters a lot more than you might think.

The sky doesn’t have to fall, but the less support there is, the more likely that baby will come crashing down. It took a flurry of Twitter messages conveying fan loyalty to the Chiefs, and respect for his individual abilities, to convince Eric Winston to come to a smaller market in Kansas City, even though he likely could’ve landed a big contract at a dozen other places. I’m curious as to how much drive and motivation could be stirred up in exploding your current Chiefs players’ Twitter accounts with positive, morale-boosting messages. We’re looking for someone to light a spark; what if we could be that spark? Idle support begets idle response. Chiefs fans were once undeniably the best fans in football, let’s embrace that legacy and kick it up a notch. Let the boys hear some noise! Let ‘em know that we not only want to see them kick some ass in New Orleans, but that it’s time to put the women and children to bed and go looking for @#$%#$% dinner… GO CHIEFS!!!!

Going into yesterday’s game, I thought it was entirely possible the Chiefs would lose. In fact, the Bills were viewed as more or less equal to the Chiefs in terms of talent, so the safe pick in this game was probably Buffalo, given that it was their home opener and they also wanted to make a statement after a blowout loss.

Still, although a loss is just a loss whether you lose by a point or a million, it does matter how you lose, and that’s what stood out most in this game.

Once again, a defense that was supposed to be in the top 10 in the league got carved to pieces. Coverages were routinely blown. Tackling was poor. We had no pressure on the quarterback, and made no plays in the secondary.

After Week 1, I suspected that ILB Derrick Johnson might not yet be fully recovered from his ankle injury. This game pretty much confirms that. He definitely did not show the speed and athleticism that makes him a dynamic player in the middle of his defense. He could not keep up with Buffalo’s running backs and he was horrendous in coverage. Belcher continued to be a huge liability when defending the pass and Flowers looked far from 100 percent.

Timothy T. Ludwig-US PRESSWIRE

No one in the ACL crew looked like they had their 2010 spark back. TE Tony Moeaki was never getting separation and only caught one pass on four targets. Jamaal Charles was totally ineffective in the run game and was put on ice, possibly due to a yet undisclosed injury. S Eric Berry was virtually invisible out there. We now have to consider the possibility that some or all three of those players may never fully recover from their bad knees.

Who would have guessed that S Kendrick Lewis would be so missed?

I presume everyone will now pile on Matt Cassel for this loss, but as with last game, I don’t see it. His stat line was 23/42 for 301 yards, 2 TD 1 INT. In a win, this would be considered a pretty good performance. No one on either side of the ball stepped up when called upon.

I’m just going to say it right now, Jon Baldwin may be a bust. We had high expectations for him given that he was lighting it up in camp, but after seeing how the Chiefs D-backs have been playing, anyone on the AA staff could have come out of St. Joe as a training camp sensation. He wasn’t even targeted against the Falcons and did not look good against the Bills.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

Baldwin never seems to run his routes with confidence and always expects to be able to outmuscle defenders in jump ball situations with his body skills — except that he doesn’t, and one way or the other, we need him to catch and run, not loiter around on the sideline as if he’s playing some elaborate form of Keep Away. In the second half, it was clear that Cassel was forcing the ball to him in the hopes of making something happen deep downfield. Baldwin was never open, never ready and only reeled in half of the balls thrown his way. He got us 62 yards, but in the worst way. I hope I’m wrong about him.

Dexter McCluster, again, was KC’s only reliable receiver, consistently getting open and catching four passes on five targets. TE Kevin Boss again caught a pretty pass, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t miss time after getting knocked out cold after a nasty blow to the head (which wasn’t really a penalty, but the refs gave us that one). As has long been the case, WR Dwayne Bowe emerged in the second half as the Chiefs’ only big-play threat, catching eight passes for 102 yards and 2 TDs.

Timothy T. Ludwig-US PRESSWIRE

This too, however, has a dark undercurrent to it though, as BJ Kissel pointed out on the Chop Talk postgame podcast. It is currently looking like the Chiefs will have to franchise Bowe again this year, to which he will likely respond by holding out again. The alternative is to pay him big bucks that Pioli doesn’t want to shell out and honestly may be more than he is worth. Still, as Kissel said, “This offense is scary to think about without Dwayne Bowe on this team.”

The offensive line, which was also supposed to be a great strength of this team in 2012, floundered. Cassel was under near-constant pressure and took five sacks. In his short, but illustrious career, this is the first time that Bills DT Kyle Williams has gotten two sacks in one game, and he also drove G Jon Asamoah into Charles for a 5-yard loss. Congratulations, Kyle.

RB Peyton Hillis, who was supposed to be the safe, pounding runner, gave up a critical fumble on the 1-yard line.

But, what killed the Chiefs most in this game was not the poor play of individual players or units, it was the shell-shocked reaction of the entire team to the Bills’ initial success. Early in the second quarter you could see the team as a whole shaking their heads and looking at the scoreboard as if to say, “Well, I guess this just isn’t our game.”

This is unacceptable, and it was by far the most infuriating part of this game. This team seemed to be totally unprepared and they gave up early. That’ll happen in high school. It’ll happen in college. This is unacceptable in the pros.

Special teams gave up another long kickoff return for a touchdown at the worst possible time allowing the Bills to seal the victory in the third quarter. Even my wife, who is still learning the game, correctly pointed out that no one looked focused.

Cassel, the usual scapegoat, was also strip-sacked and was never even close to saving us in the game, but he also scrambled well and showed toughness while getting what little was there. In the end, Cassel, McCluster and Bowe seemed like the only players still interested in playing the game by halftime.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

This is where the coach is supposed to come in. Not only did the Chiefs seem unprepared, they looked utterly outcoached on defense. With as bad as DJ has looked against the pass, how could Crennel put him in coverage on TE Scott Chandler – one of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite weapons – in the red zone, allowing him to give up an easy touchdown on virtually the exact same play that Tony G scored with last week?

Comparatively, Brian Daboll’s scheme overall looks like it will get us places this year. I liked some of the matchups he exploited, but I can’t honestly say anything positive about the defense.

After halftime, I was expecting the Chiefs to come back fired up, and, while I knew likely wouldn’t be able to catch up to the Bills, I expected them to at least play like professionals. Instead they came out flatter than before. Crennel, who is known for his friendly, soft-spoken demeanor, was unable to get rally the troops. In that situation, the players didn’t need a friend; they needed leader that would kick them in the ass and tell them to go out and play with pride.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

When it was time for the Chiefs to pick a new head coach after the 2011 season, I was one of the few who went against the grain in suggesting that Crennel was not the best choice. In addition to the fact that he had been unsuccessful in the top job before, many of the things that doomed Todd Haley’s tenure in KC – namely blowout losses – were failures on Crennel’s part as well. Getting torched for lopsided losses is as much the defensive coordinator’s fault as it is the head coach’s. Crennel has now presided as DC over two seasons of disgustingly poor defensive play in the opening games.

Although he engineered big wins in the last three games of the season, not much else stands out in his resume other than the fact that he is from the New England system and the players seem to like him.

After the game, Crennel said he didn’t really know how or why the Chiefs got so thoroughly demolished in the game. Paddy quoted him as saying, “I’m gonna say that I thought we would be better. I really thought that we would be better but we’re not so we’ve got to figure out why that is.”

This is very distressing.

Now, because I have just spewed 1,300+ words of negativity, here’s some happy thoughts for anyone still reading:

1.) The Chiefs came back from blowout losses and crucial injuries in the first two weeks of the season last year, and stayed in division contention to the end. So, if you haven’t blacked it out of your memory, you will recall that you felt this bad after Week 2 last year and it got better.

2.) The Chiefs aren’t the only team that has allowed a league-high 75 points so far in the 2012 season. We are tied with the New Orleans Saints and we play them next week.

3.) Kansas City is currently fifth in the league in total offense, fifth in rushing and 11^th in passing. So, hey, at least that’s not our biggest problem anymore!

4.) As bad as the Chiefs’ loss today was, the Raiders’ beatdown was worse. They got crushed 13-35 against the Miami Dolphins, considered by many to be the worst team in the league.

5.) Speaking of the ‘Phins, it took the team half of the season to learn Daboll’s complicated offense, but after playing awful in their first seven games, Miami went 6-3 starting in Week 9 (against the Chiefs) with a combined score of 222-131. In other words, don’t worry. The Chiefs are just going to be late bloomers.

6.) Remember that Arizona team that we mowed over in the preseason? Well, they just beat the New England Patriots in Foxborough. If they’re good enough to do that, then we must have something.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

In a couple days the Kansas City Chiefs leave for Buffalo, NY to square off against the Bills in the Chiefs’ first road game of the regular season. Tensions are high for both teams as both suffered crushing defeats in their first games of the season. Of course, Eric Berry also has a bone to pick with Stevie Johnson, but if Stevie’s smart, he may just get “injured” before the game even starts and avoid the abuse every KC defender is likely to inflict on him.

Continuing the Know Your Enemy series, let’s take a look at this weekend’s opposition:

Offense

The Buffalo Bills’ offense is led by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is the type of QB that when he’s on he’s on, but when he’s off he’s really off. Last year, the Bills started off strong and some started to think that they could be the real deal; this started with Ryan Fitzpatrick’s early on. Unfortunately for Bills fans, that also ended with Fitzpatrick when the Bills followed up this hopeful beginning with a  massive losing streak. Fitzpatrick wound up throwing 20 INTs over the last 13 games of the 2011 season. That trend appears to have continued. Fitzpatrick threw 3 INTs to the Jets last week; one of which was a pick six. This is also the fourth game in Fitzpatrick’s last nine starts in which he threw 3+ INTs. Mind you, Fitzpatrick also threw for 3 TDs on Sunday, but two of those came midway through the 4^th quarter when the Jets were leading 41-14, and have been considered by many Buffalo news outlets to be junk TDs.

As far as receiving threats go, Stevie Johnson shouldn’t be underestimated and Donald Jones does well enough, but neither of these players come close to being more formidable than Julio Jones and Roddy White. Likewise Bills TE Scott Chandler is no Tony Gonzalez. Add to the mix WR3 David Nelson suffering an ACL injury in Sunday’s game that has him out for the season, and the subsequent replacement of him by rookie T.J. Graham whom the Bills’ coaches acknowledge is behind in learning the pro game, and the Chiefs are looking to have an easier time with pass defense this weekend.

Onto the running game, there’s good news and there’s bad news. The good news (at least for us) is that Fred Jackson will be out for a knee injury that he incurred during the Bills loss to the Jets. The bad news? Jackson’s back-up C.J. Spiller is no slouch. Though listed as No. 2 on the depth chart, Spiller prides himself in preparing for games as though he were the No. 1 guy, and he looks like he could be a No. 1 RB in the NFL even without injuries elevating him to that position. Following Jackson’s injury in Sunday’s game, Spiller managed to finish the day with 14 carries, 169 yards and 1 TD. To spare you doing the math, that’s an average of over 12 yds/carry. This average is as large as it is due to two large breaks of 56 yards and 49 yards, the 56 yarder being his TD carry. Even factoring out those big gains, though, Spiller still averaged over 5 yards per carry. I won’t go so far as to say Spiller is a better back than Michael Turner (there has to be more frequent and consistent success before that could ever be said), but the Chiefs’ defense will have to be wary of Spiller’s presence on the field and prevent any big breakaways Spiller is hoping to repeat this week.

One last note on Buffalo’s offense: you may or may not have heard of/remember Brad Smith. Drafted out of Missouri in the fourth round of the 2006 Draft by the Jets, the Bills retained his services last year in hopes of utilizing his unique athleticism. Listed as a QB/WR, the Bills intend to utilize Smith in the capacity of a Wildcat QB. Last year’s shortened offseason saw the Bills not quite being able to get this new look off the ground last season; however, with Smith getting in a full offseason this year, the coaching staff will be looking to integrate the Wildcat package all the more into their offensive attack this season. It doesn’t hurt that the Bills hired David Lee to be their QBs coach this season. For those of you who don’t know, Sporting News named Lee “Innovator of the Year” in 2008 for introducing the Wildcat offense to the pro game during his time as OC for the Dolphins. If the Chiefs look to be doing a sound job of neutralizing Spiller and frustrating Fitzpatrick, don’t be surprised to see some Wildcat added to the mix.

Defense

Have you heard that the Buffalo Bills signed Mario Williams? Of course you have. Have you heard that Mario Williams did next to nothing against the Jets? Perhaps not, but it is true. Mario Williams walked away from Sunday’s game recording only one tackle, and not so much as one QB pressure. He’s still the $100 million dollar man on what could be the best defensive line in the NFL, but he didn’t come close to showing why he garnered such a contract and why the Bills’ DL is speculated to be among the best against the Jets. So the good news is that Mario Williams can be neutralized altogether, with the less-than-good news being that he’ll probably have a pretty big chip on his shoulder following Sunday’s game. Though the Bills did not register a single sack in their game against the Jets, the Chiefs OL has shown growing pains in gelling as a unit and allowed the Falcons to register three. In addition to Mario Williams, the Bills DL consists of Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Mark Anderson. Though it may be possible for the Chiefs OL to duplicate the output of the Jets’ generally less talented OL, it will be a hard fought battle to keep these four guys from putting the pressure on Cassel.

Buffalo’s linebacking corps isn’t incredibly noteworthy, but I would be doing him a disservice to not mention OLB Nick Barnett, the Bills greatest threat at the LB position. Prior to getting signed by the Bills last season, Barnett was drafted by, and played eight seasons for, the Green Bay Packers and was even selected by the Associated Press as a second team All-Pro in 2007. Though 31 and a few years removed from national recognition, has consistently registered 100+ tackles per season over his 10 years of experience (save for 2 years, 2008 & 2010, in which he was injured for a significant amount of games).

The Bills’ secondary may be Cassel’s bread and butter. Starting CBs Stephon Gilmore and Aaron Williams are both young guys, and though both players were taken early in their respective drafts (Gilmore 10^th overall this year, and Williams 34^th overall last year) and should develop into excellent cornerbacks in time, the key phrase there is “in time”. Both players’ performances over the preseason and during the first regular season game have caused some concern among the Bills’ coaching staff. The main problem against the Jets is that they were allowing their receivers to run too wide and open. I’m sure Chan Gailey has been and will be stressing this issue during this week’s practice in preparation for the Chiefs, but I’m equally sure that the youth of these players may very well cause them to go to the other extreme and incur quite a few pass interference calls in this weekend’s game. Were we playing Buffalo later in the season, these players might be greater cause for concern, but for now Kansas City should be able to exploit some good matchups.

Special Teams

The Bills are one of those teams that have decided to carry three kicking specialists: a FG kicker, a place kicker, and a punter. Rookie placekicker John Potter has gotten much praise for his work up ‘til now as he has consistently sent his kickoffs through the back of the endzone; Punter Brian Moorman has been consistently good over the years at placing his punts inside the 20; and PR Leodis McKelvin is not a bad guy to have averaging 10 yards per punt return. The Bills punt coverage team does leave much to be desired though, and allowed the Jets to return a punt 68 yards for a TD early in the second quarter.

______

Overall, can’t say I’m too terribly concerned about Sunday’s matchup. The Bills look to be a much easier team to exploit and defeat than the Falcons proved to be. One thing to note about Fitzpatrick’s performance against the Jets is that he performed that poorly without New York registering any sacks; with Tamba back and Houston hungry, Fitzpatrick would be a fool to think he could get so lucky a second week in a row. Given the efficiency Cassel displayed in the first half of the Falcons game, I’m one Brandon Flowers away from calling this game a definite lock.

Potential, major momentum shifts caused by Chiefs’ D: 1) Rattle Fitzpatrick early and let the interceptions spring forth; 2) Make Spiller eat turf early and often

Potential, major momentum shifts caused by Chiefs’ O: 1) Neutralize Mario Williams early and let him throw another hissy fit; 2) Play physical enough to goad the young CBs to commit pass interference until they start playing as open as they did last week

Potential, major momentum shifts caused by Chiefs ST: 1) Break open a big PR or KR, even if it can’t be returned for a TD, giving up a huge chunk of yardage should spur PTSD in some of the coverage teams’ personnel

That’s my outlook on the Chiefs’ opponent for the upcoming weekend. If there’s something I missed, you know what to do.

Yep, the second half of the game yesterday was pretty painful.

Paddy has already laid out a lot of the good that came out of the game and I don’t want to repeat the same points, but I have to say that, overall, I was also encouraged.

Last week, I wrote that this game would answer the burning question for the Chiefs – whether or not they could score and keep up with high-flying offenses. In the comments, I said, “if they put 28 points on the board and we still lose this game I’ll be satisfied, because at least they will have shown that they are able to get into the end zone. They’ll be getting their defensive stars back soon, and if that’s the only reason they lose this game then it’s nothing to worry about going forward.”

Although we fell slightly short of that, I stand by it and am basically satisfied.

At halftime, the Chiefs were hanging tough with the Falcons, answering them score-for-score at 17-20. Then, the Chiefs were hit with a stream of extremely bad luck. The Chiefs’ second half possessions ended: missed field goal, fumble, interception, interception, punt, touchdown, end of game. Considering neither team punted in the first half, it was clear that there was zero room for error in this game and we couldn’t afford to not score on a single drive. Therefore, when things went awry, it was obvious that the game was going to get out of hand quickly.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Turnovers on three consecutive possessions (especially on your own 20) is enough to kill pretty much any team in any game. If you consider the fact that a missed field goal is essentially a turnover as well, the Chiefs had four in a row. Not all were Cassel’s fault as some have suggested and generally he played a good game.

Simply put, this game was a one-off. LB Justin Houston showed some good moves and got a sack and two QB hits, but we still cannot create consistent pressure without Hali. Having reserves Jacques Reeves and Abram Elam in for CB Brandon Flowers and S Kendrick Lewis is more than a step down, it’s a lifestyle change – our strength was suddenly a weakness. We went from being a Wall Street exec to being a bum, eating a hairy fish on the bus in a Santa suit. There are quite a few teams the Chiefs can beat while eating fish in a Santa suit (cough – Arizona!), but those teams don’t have Roddy White and Julio Jones. We had no answer for those two.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Sometimes the game is just stacked against you and you’re going to end up getting kicked in the mouth. That’s what happened here. For me, the low point was Gonzo dunking on us in the end zone as the Falcons went up by 17. Tony G was my childhood idol – I even played tight end and wore his number at Topeka High – and I for some reason thought he wouldn’t do it. Basically he gave into his quarterback’s urging, which he probably couldn’t refuse, but like the thousands of Chiefs fans booing at Arrowhead, I felt betrayed.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

But don’t get down on yourselves, Chiefs fans! As Grandpa Romeo assured us on Twitter, “No one panic…. The Steelers, Saints, Packers, Giants are all 0-1 #StepAwayFromTheLedge.” The vaunted Steelers defense allowed 31 points to the Donkeys. The Saints got smacked around by a rookie at home. But you know what sure feels good after a loss like this? Revenge. No, I’m not suggesting we sleep with Tony Gonzalez’s wife. (But, seriously, if you have her number, do pass it along.)

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Next week, teed up for our enjoyment are the Buffalo Bills, who just got utterly pummeled 48-28 by the Jets and the hapless offense of Mark Sanchez. Chiefs might also remember, somewhere in the deep recesses of your repressed subconscious, that in last year’s opener, the Chiefs got hammered by the Bills 41-7. We also lost Eric Berry for the season to a low hit from Bills WR Stevie Johnson.

Andrew Weber-US Presswire

Week 2 is our chance to erase the hurt from both of these awful games with a resounding win over the upstate New York Bison. I’m sure Buffalo fans are good, well-meaning people. In fact, they have suffered for the past two decades with similarly disappointing franchises. That said, when the Chiefs come back and trounce Buffalo in their own house, I am going to be screaming at the top of my lungs “IN YOUR FACE!” No score is too high, no celebration too excessive. We will all dance a magnificent obnoxious dance in our crushing victory. Not because it’s the right thing to do, but because it will be effective, and necessary therapy.

Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

“It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.” – Sun Tzu, Art of War

The Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. As Addicts, odds are that we as fans are well aware of the Chiefs’ strengths and weaknesses, even if we choose not to outwardly express our thoughts and concerns on certain issues. We know our Chiefs, so to speak. But beyond a few players or personnel, not all of us can say the same about knowing the Falcons.

Though Central Pennsylvania tends to be a melting pot for NFL fans, I can’t say that I know any Atlanta Falcons fans that I can speak football with on a regular basis. Deciding to be proactive, I looked a little further in depth to what Atlanta excelled at last season, and what they might be looking to do this season, and wasn’t really pleased with what I discovered.

Offense

The Falcons are generally perceived as one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL. The likes of Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez pose a clear passing threat, and Michael Turner has been one of the better premier backs in the league for some time. This is well-known.

Julio Jones put in an impressive preseason and has shown that he should be worth every bit that GM Thomas Dimitroff gave up in order to draft him. This should also be known.

What may not be known by the average fan is that the Falcons are among the fastest starting teams in the league. Since 2008, the Falcons ranked first in the league for points scored on their first offensive possession (173), and last season ranked third in the league in this category scoring 51 points on opening drives, which includes six touchdowns. It could be said that Atlanta has become quite accustomed to putting up points right off the bat, and if Kansas City can stall such efforts it may be a bigger momentum-shifting, tone-setting course of events than might otherwise be suspected.

Further, the Falcons and Matt Ryan have publicized Atlanta’s intentions to make more big play attempts in the passing game this season. They are going to throw the deep ball, and they are likely going to throw it more often than other teams, and with much more serious threats in Julio Jones and Roddy White. Matt Ryan has gone so far as to state that “… [completing] one out of three [passes] on balls way down the field [is] not a bad day”, so do not expect a couple failed attempts to be enough to deter Atlanta from going to the air on Sunday. The threat of the deep ball will be a daylong threat, and it will be up to the Chiefs’ banged up secondary and hurting pass rush to keep this threat from becoming a reality.

Additionally, the Falcons boast an 83% scoring efficiency on drives lasting 10 or more plays during the period of 2008-present, and own a 40-13 Win/Loss record during this period when Matt Ryan throws at least one touchdown pass during a game. So on top of guarding against the quick, big play, Kansas City will have to safeguard against the long drawn out drives. Peachy.

On a more positive note, Tony Gonzalez is winding down on his career, and though he has not experienced quite as big of a dropoff in productivity as, say, Antonio Gates, he is not the same player we remember so fondly from his time in Kansas City. Returning to Kansas City may give him an added boost in his play, but overall he’s not as big of a threat as some of us may remember; make no mistake about it, though, he is still a threat. Additionally, there has been a lot of speculation over several outlets that Michael Turner may be looking at a decline in his production. Turner has been around long enough for the general wear and tear that comes with being an NFL running back to take its toll on his body and slow him down a bit. The only other Atlanta running back getting a lot of notice this preseason has been Jacquizz Rodgers, and quite frankly, Nate Eachus put in better performances than Jacquizz Rodgers. When the Chiefs’ No. 5 RB looks better than the Falcons’ No. 2 (or 3) RB, it either says great things about the Chiefs, terrible things about the Falcons, or some combination thereof; in any case, if Turner can be shutdown, the remaining options aren’t looking too threatening.

Defense

If the Falcons’ offense is exceptionally good at scoring on their first possession, the Falcons’ defense is exceptionally good at preventing opposing teams from scoring on first offensive possessions. In fact, the Falcons only allowed 16 points to come from opponents’ first possessions last season, with only one touchdown contributing to that total. Since 2008, the Falcons have only allowed 20.1 points per game, and the organization seems to chalk this up in large part due to the team’s ability to set the tone of the game by preventing opponents from scoring on their first possessions. If you’re Romeo Crennel and Brian Daboll, this one seems pretty clear: score, and score at the first opportunity. Even if the drive takes several plays until meeting the end result of points on the board, it will be a great blow to the Falcons to shove the ball down their throat and have them second guessing their defensive decisions and strategy.

During the offseason, Atlanta traded a seventh-round pick to Philadelphia to retain the services of Asante Samuels. This move gives the Falcons three very good players in their secondary at the CB position: Samuels, Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes. Samuels himself is a bit of a ballhawk, but has been justifiably labeled as a bit of a liability at times. Samuels tends to play on instinct, and while sometimes those instincts help lend to his interception totals, he is apt to give up the big play when those instincts cause him to make the wrong decision on where the ball is going.

Brent Grimes is one of the better CBs in the league, and should be likened a bit to Brandon Flowers. Just as Flowers may not be much of a household name outside the AFC West, Grimes may not be much of a household name outside the NFC South. But like with Flowers, this doesn’t make Grimes any less great.

As for Dunta Robinson, he has been somewhat subjected to the stigma of not living up to his potential; this is likely to change this season. The Atlanta Falcons are putting a high priority on getting to the QB this season, and have been devising new blitzing schemes to better incorporate their personnel in reaching this goal; Dunta Robinson is a large part of these new plans. DC Mike Nolan will be playing Robinson out of the slot position, and allowing Robinson to take on a more physical style of football from this position. Robinson is expected to see more blitzing opportunities and couldn’t be happier for it. This might not be too much of a factor for Kansas City. Though Cassel didn’t look too good in the preseason on the longer developing plays where blitzing was involved, the Chiefs did realize quite a bit of success in throwing the shorter, quicker passes utilizing Charles and Hillis out of the backfield, and McCluster and the TEs over the middle. A successful drive against the Falcons may not involve a lot of impressive deeper down the field style plays, but may rather involve chipping yardage off one play at a time and rendering the Falcons’ new blitzing designs largely ineffectual.

Rubbing salt in the defensive wound, the Falcons lost MLB Curtis Lofton during the offseason which will not only have their LB corps hurting quite a bit, but is a big loss to their leadership on that side of the ball. I am much happier that the Chiefs will be facing a Falcons defense without Lofton than a Falcons defense with him.

Special Teams

The Falcons appear to boast an impressive punting game. P Matt Bosher is consistently successful at dropping the ball inside opponents’ own 20-yard lines, and the punt coverage unit was the NFL’s best last year, holding opponents to an average of 4.8 yards per return.

K Matt Bryant is 37 and has likely lost some kicking strength. While I wouldn’t classify him as great, he is performing at a slightly above average level, and can be trusted to ace kicks less than 40 yards, with 40+ yard attempts being a little iffier.

As for Atlanta’s return game, it looks to be in a transitional stage with untested (in regular games) returner Jacquizz Rodgers currently topping the charts. With poor coverage any returner could take it to the house, but the Chiefs do not appear to be likely to give up a TD to a team at this stage of their return game.

______

Overall, Sunday’s game will definitely be a tough battle, as Atlanta looks to be among the more well-rounded teams in the league.

Expected momentum shifts the Chiefs’ defense may cause: 1) stopping the fast start; 2) preventing the big play multiple times in a row; 3) holding Atlanta’s drives to nine plays or less before forcing the punt.

Expected moment shifts the Chiefs’ offense may spur: 1) enacting a fast start of their own; 2) beating the blitz; 3) making Atlanta’s D doubt itself (and their FO sorry for letting Lofton go) by striking up the middle by land and by air.

Expected momentum shifts on special teams: 1) engineering punt returns for double digit yardage; 2) forcing Matt Bryant to attempt 40+ yard FGs.

And, of course, the final momentum shifter is Kansas City’s 12^th man: Make it loud, Chiefs fans, and remember, there’s no shame in making their ears bleed: it just adds more red to the field.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The regular season is here and the Chiefs’ biggest fears have been realized. Early injuries devastated this football team just one year ago when the ACL3 were all on the wrong side of the injured reserve list by the third week of September. The team’s top priority, coming into their 2012 campaign, was to arrive at the season opener with a clean bill of health. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Kansas City now has four injured starters (Johnson, Flowers, Toribio, and Lewis). Romeo Crennel believes his starting ILB and CB will play on Sunday. Anthony Toribio is listed as day-to-day. Safety Kendrick Lewis is likely to miss the opener. The league office added insult to injury when they levied a one-game suspension on Tamba Hali for violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. This team could be missing three starters when the Atlanta Falcons come to town this weekend.

Game 1 was probably a “pick’em” two weeks ago. That was before the news broke about their top pass-rusher. On paper, the Falcons now look to have a decided aerial advantage. Without Hali to protect him, Justin Houston will get special attention from Atlanta’s OC Dirk Koetter. Derrick Johnson is the only other linebacker on the roster with a pass-rushing skillset. He’s nursing an ankle injury though that could affect his closing speed. Hopefully he’ll be ready to go by Sunday, but he did not practice with the team today (neither did Allen Bailey). That leaves the job to Andy Studebaker, Cameron Sheffield, and a rotation of defensive linemen who are similarly underwhelming at pressuring the QB. If Matt Ryan consistently has six seconds to throw, this team will be in for a very long day.

Brian Daboll and company will have to effectively control the clock and keep the Atlanta offense off the field. This Chiefs’ offense has struggled to sustain a drive over the last two weeks. If those struggles continue, we could very well see a repeat of the 2011 season opener. I’ve done my best to block out the memory of the Buffalo blowout at Arrowhead Stadium last year. That game is a perfect example of how offensive ineptitude can hang this defense out to dry. The Chiefs had just 12 offensive plays in the first quarter of that game. Those four drives netted Kansas City zero points. By then they were already down two possessions. A repeat of that offensive effort will be disastrous, especially against a team that boasts an offense with Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Michael Turner.

The team could also use a lift from Tom McMahon and the Special Teams. The aforementioned 2011 opener began with several Special Teams missteps. Dexter McCluster fumbled the opening kickoff and turned the ball over deep in Chiefs’ territory. Dustin Colquitt was responsible for a short 27-yard punt that swung the field position battle in favor of the Bills. Ryan Succop missed a 49-yard field goal early in the second quarter. Compare that against the 2010 season opener with the Chargers where McCluster returned a punt 94 yards for a touchdown. That helped to secure the game for the Chiefs and set the tone for a successful AFC West-winning season. Kansas City could use a few positive plays from the Special Teams on Sunday.

Here’s where Romeo Crennel will earn his paycheck. He needs to keep his football team calm and poised in the face of adversity. Crennel will have to balance that with instilling a sense of urgency in them to play passionately from the opening kick. It’s important that the Chiefs win this game before departing the cozy confines of Arrowhead for two tough road games. This game will be won with mental toughness and a great overall team effort. We’ve seen Crennel do this before. He beat the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers at Arrowhead last year to start a three-game stretch as interim head coach of this team. Crennel needed to make a statement then, and he needs to make a statement now.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs got spanked by the Seattle Seahawks. As infuriating as it is to write that sentence, there’s no way around it. So, who’s to blame? [This is a cue for the Matt Cassel detractors to skip to the Comments section. This article is probably not for you. I’ll wait.]

…

Now that I’ve cut down on my readership (which in hindsight was probably a terrible idea), I will say that I think only a small amount of blame should fall on Cassel. WRs dropping passes that should by all means be caught dead to rights is much more a WR failure than a QB failure. Cassel’s fumble occurred from behind as a result of pass blocking failure, and, if he were standing around like a slouch it’d be one thing, but it’s harder to blame Cassel for not protecting the ball when he was reeling up to launch it (I’m actually incredibly curious what the end result would’ve been had Cassel been able to get the pass off, and, right before the fumble, instantly noticed that despite being under pressure and stepping forward Cassel didn’t lose track of where the line of scrimmage was and such a pass would’ve remained legal). And, though it’s never good to see your team’s QB throw a pick, the Chiefs were down by 23 points at the end of the third quarter and in a third down situation, facing certain sack Cassel made a choice that many NFL QBs (including ones among the elite) would’ve made by trying to dump the ball to the only teammate capable of catching it and keeping the drive alive, it just failed in the worst way possible. If the game were closer, I think we should be more upset at the end result (pick six), but in this particular situation, I’m inclined to cut him a break; if he does it in the regular season when the score is closer, or there’s more time left in the game, then I’ll start calling for his head.

Through the first two preseason games, Cassel looked like a better, more confident QB than we’re used to seeing. Does he still checkdown? Yes, but when that habit has been combined with a supporting run game, the Chiefs have been quite successful this preseason. I don’t think checkdowns are a problem when the plays are called right. In fact, one of the most absurd observations I heard following this last game’s blowout is that, during the only TD drive Cassel engineered, he checked down on all but maybe one pass, which I find absurd because why should anyone complain about checkdowns when the end result is a TD? Trying to throw a deeper ball got the team nowhere, after all. Besides that, a checkdown-laden, successful drive makes the opponent’s D more tired, the Chiefs’ D better rested, and yields less time on the clock for the other team to counter with points of their own.

The offensive playcalling witnessed in the Seahawks game was definitely off compared to the much more successful playcalling in the previous two games. Overall, I think the talent is there, and keeping the playcalling of the first two games and slowly working in the bolder plays of the last game will reap rewards over the long haul, so we shouldn’t be too worried going forward, despite this last game’s final score (offensively).

What fans should be worried about is the secondary. Jalil Brown may or may not have unrealized potential, but a CB replacing Brandon Flowers needs more than unmet “potential” if the Chiefs’ secondary wants to be more than a sieve. And the sieve-like tendency isn’t restricted to this year; going over last year’s statistics, it appears there should be less worry over the run defense, and more worry over the pass defense.

I’ve decided to compare the 2011 Kansas City defense to the Top 3 defenses of the season (Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston) to see how the Chiefs stacked up. We’ll start with examining the run defenses.

As can be seen, the KC had the greater numbers across all categories, which looks pretty bad at first glance. But note that opponents tended to run the ball a lot more against KC’s defense than against the other three teams. To even the playing field (so to speak), I decided to determine the likely results of a rushing attempt against KC versus a rushing attempt against the other three teams; this requires generating a TD% and 1^st Down% for each team. [TD% is equivalent to the TD stat divided by Attempts; 1^st Down% is equivalent to 1^st Downs divided by Attempts. As you’ll note, Y/A has already been calculated and included in the table, as this is a more commonly broken down statistic.] The determination of this breakdown is as follows:

As can be seen, the Chiefs still had a significantly higher than desirable TD% having allowed 2.76% of rushing attempts to result in a TD; however the team fared better than most of the other three teams only having allowed 18.9% of the rushing attempts against them to result in a first down, with Baltimore being the only team performing better. As can be seen in the first table, the Y/A average is negligible, and shouldn’t require too much improvement to match a Top 3 defense. Overall, there is still room to improve the run defense to the level of a Top 3 defense, but, as you’ll soon see, the difference is a lot more lopsided when comparing pass defenses.

The pass defense stats for each of these teams are as follows:

Looking over the table you’ll see that, despite having had less attempts made against them, and having allowed less completions, the Chiefs defense allowed the highest number in each of the remaining categories. So, right off the bat you should know the comparison isn’t going to bode well at all for Kansas City. But keeping with the formula used in comparing run defenses, I’ve calculated the TD% and 1^st Down% to determine the likely results of a passing attempt against KC versus a passing attempt against the other three teams, throwing in the pass completion percentage, as well.

Not only were opponents significantly more likely to complete a pass against the Kansas City defense than the other three teams, but they were also significantly more likely to see that completion turn into a TD or 1st Down, and by a much greater margin than when comparing run defenses. These numbers are unacceptable, and should have us a lot more worried about the team’s pass defense than their run defense, especially when you consider that last year’s secondary consisted of Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and Kendrick Lewis, none of whom are currently able to play for the team (Flowers and Lewis over those pesky injuries, and Carr over that pesky “on another team’s roster” thing).

Only so much of last year’s pass defense failures can be blamed on the rotating starters at the SS position, and on Belcher (a/k/a the defense’s Matt Cassel), and while I think that Routt will adequately replace Carr, and Elam will be a suitable fill-in for Lewis, not even the return of Eric Berry will fully make up for the (albeit temporary) loss of Flowers and the subsequent promotion of Jalil Brown to starting CB.

As the defensive situation currently stands, mobile QBs certainly seem to be an Achilles’ heel, as do better WRs than Jalil Brown can handle (such as Amendola). Only time will tell how Kansas City’s secondary will shake itself out, but make no mistake about it, the Chiefs’ pass defense should be a primary cause for concern, and three above average players in the secondary will be lucky to duplicate last year’s disappointing figures, let alone improve on those numbers. With Berry knocking off more of the rust accrued from not playing last season, and the front seven improving in the pass rush (Hali’s suspension for the Atlanta game notwithstanding), we may have more hope than I’m letting on; however, let us still hope that Lewis and Flowers (especially Flowers) find their way onto the field sooner rather than later, or the Chiefs will very likely be in for a rocky start.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Fourteen points later, we’re back to discuss what we’ve learned since the Chiefs lost the coveted Governor’s Cup to the St. Louis Rams. I wish I could gush over the Chiefs’ offensive effort in Friday night’s loss to the Seahawks. Unfortunately, it looks as though there are more questions than answers heading into the last week of the preseason. That’s not exactly reassuring after the most important preseason outing for the Chiefs offensive starters. It’s always difficult to know how much you can glean from football in August, but I think there are a few more things we can add to last week’s list.

1. Cassel will return to old habits under heavy pressure.

Matt Cassel spent the off-season working to improve his game. Between the time spent with pitching coach Tom House and quarterbacks coach Jim Zorn, he looked to be a slightly different quarterback. Friday night Murphy’s Law descended upon Arrowhead Stadium and it marked a return to Cassel’s old habits. Guards Lilja and Asamoah didn’t do Cassel any favors being shoved around by Seahawks defenders. Branden Albert contributed a few poorly-blocked pass plays of his own. The receivers dropped a handful of passes. Even the offensive gameplan seemed to be conspiring against Cassel’s preseason efficiency. I’m speculating here, but it occurred to me that limited carries between Charles and Hillis might’ve been Brian Daboll testing Cassel’s mettle. All of this lead to a jumpy Cassel who looked quite uncomfortable in the pocket (when he had one). It’s no surprise that McCluster led all receivers with seven catches. I had been impressed with Cassel’s ball placement through the first two games, but in Game 3 several of his passes sailed. He did respond with just over 9 minutes to play in the second quarter though, leading the Chiefs on a 17-play drive that ended in a Dexter McCluster touchdown.

2. McCluster’s maturation could hurt Cassel’s progress.

McCluster has put it all together this off-season with an impressive camp and a very productive month of August. Through three preseason games he leads the team in receptions and receiving yardage. #22 can be dangerous in Daboll’s offense, but he can also help Cassel solidify the title “Captain Checkdown.” Relying too heavily on outlets will do a grand disservice to his top three receivers (Bowe, Breaston, and Baldwin). McCluster being productive is good for this offense so long as he doesn’t keep Cassel from looking up field. Daboll wants to attack defenses. We can’t do that if pressure forces Cassel to lock in on his diminutive safety valve.

3. The Tight Ends will be a productive platoon.

I’ve heard arguments all off-season about which tight end will separate himself from the pack. Tony Moeaki, the founding member of the ACL3, has been the favorite among these watercooler conversations. Free agent acquisition Kevin Boss brings a slightly different skillset to the table and currently leads the group in receptions. Converted offensive tackle Steve Maneri quietly had a solid camp and opened the preseason with a three-catch, 69-yard game against Arizona. In each preseason contest a different tight end has stepped forward. I doubt that Daboll will play any offensive favorites, and it’s likely that there won’t be a singular hero at the position. I expect to see a committee approach in the mold of the New England Patriots.

4. Brian Daboll will experiment.

The one thing that impresses me the most about the Chiefs new offensive coordinator is his ability to adjust. The offense has struggled at times during the preseason, but in each game they’ve rebounded and found ways to get into the end zone. Kansas City’s offense had no rhythm the first twenty minutes of the game against Seattle. Daboll got them going on a 17-play drive that culminated in a touchdown pass from Cassel to McCluster. Throughout the preseason he’s consistently found ways to get his sluggish offense moving. That’s a welcome change in Kansas City. Former head coach Todd Haley knew how to beat a dead horse.

The preseason finale on Thursday night likely won’t tell us much, but there are a few roster spots still up for grabs. Nate Eachus went off for 98 rushing yards in the fourth quarter of the Seattle game. The offensive starters will be pulled early so it’ll be interesting to see what he and Shaun Draughn make of the the remaining three quarters of football. Eachus is a long shot, but he could very well play his way onto this roster with another game like the one he had this past Friday night at Arrowhead. The race for the final two or three WR slots will also be something to watch. I’m also hoping to see some consistency from the offensive line in protecting the quarterback. When we reconvene next week we’ll have final preseason answers, a shorter roster, and a good idea of what we can expect in the regular season opener against Atlanta.

Until then, Addicts…

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

Well, Kansas City fans, at this point during the week I’m sure we’re all a little exhausted of hearing about the the Chiefs’ failure against the Rams Saturday night. The Chiefs secondary was lacking in some things (to say the least), the injured status of Kendrick Lewis and Brandon Flowers has us all concerned and Ricky Stanzi performed miserably. To boot, we all have questions pertaining to just what caused Tamba Hali’s suspension. But let’s try to brighten up here. Bowe is back, Cassel is continuing to do well in Daboll’s offense and, at the pace he’s going, Peyton Hillis is looking to be a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. Further, the Chiefs are better off seeing the weakness in their D now instead of, say, the fourth preseason game; the two remaining preseason games should provide us fans with a good litmus test for what to expect from our Chiefs at the start of the regular season now that Crennel knows just what kind of adjustments need made that could hamper some of the better QBs in the league, several of which the team’ll be facing right off the bat.

Before making my predictions last week, I considered how I saw the Chiefs’ 53-man roster fleshing out and drew the following conclusions:

ST: K – 1, P – 1, LS – 1

OFF: QB – 3, RB – 4, WR – 7, OL – 8 or 7, TE – 3 or 4 (8 OL & 3 TE, or 7 OL & 4 TE)

DEF: DL – 7 or 8, LB – 8, DBs– 10 or 9 (7 DL & 10 DBs, or 8  & 9, respectively)

When considering this structure, I felt a few position group numbers were a little high, but a quick look at last year’s roster, courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, assured me that I’m pretty well in the ballpark. And, yes, having a minimum of nine guys in the secondary and a possible ten still seems a little excessive, but when you consider that last year’s active roster, at one point or another, included Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis, Jalil Brown, Travis Daniels, Javier Arenas, Reshard Langford, Jon McGraw, Donald Washington & Sabby Piscitelli, I’m not too far off base. Of the nine or ten DBs I expect to make the roster, do I expect all of them to be on the active roster come game day? No; just as I don’t expect the 7^th WR, 8^th OL, 8^th LB, or 3^rd QB to be on the active roster. Remember, though it’s a 53-man roster, only a maximum of 46 players may be active on game day (up from the previous CBAs 45-man limit), which leads us to this week’s predictions:

1.  With Flowers and Lewis out for an indeterminate amount of time, Crennel will take a hard look at the DBs on roster (I know, I’m friggin’ Nostradamus, right?). Chalking up Saturday’s problems to a secondary that is “young”, “inexperienced” and lacking “maturity”, Crennel will focus mostly on filling out the roster with the more veteran players. Though some of these players’ ceilings may not be as high as some of the newer guys, their consistency and reliability in the short term will prevail over longer term, but potentially better, developmental projects. As I see it the roster will consist of : 1. Flowers; 2. Routt; 3. Berry; 4. Lewis; 5. Abram Elam; 6. Travis Daniels; 7. Jalil Brown; and, 8. Javier Arenas. This leaves one maybe two spots to take on either Jacques Reeves and a project player, or two project players, with the likely candidates being Dequan Menzie, Terrance Parks and Tysyn Hartman. Dequan Menzie may be in the same boat as Junior Hemingway; an injury plagued camp may spell practice squad, but I think the odds of that are worse than with Hemingway, and choosing Menzie and either Parks or Hartman over Reeves to fill out the bottom of the roster wouldn’t be too surprising. That being said, I could somewhat understand if Reeves was chosen to stay on roster with the other candidates being practice squad eligible. In any event I would not be shocked to see all three of Menzie, Parks & Hartman keep ties with the team, even if one or two is/are kept in the capacity of practice squad player(s). The remaining options (Fenner, Fanor, etc.) just don’t strike me as making the cut in any capacity.  That includes Donald Washington, who despite being a veteran and “more mature”, seems to me to be too costly of a save at this point.

Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE

2. Stanzi will still make the roster, but as the No. 3 QB and only for the purposes of continued development. He’s just not looking that good right now, and if a playoff berth is still in the cards and push comes to shove (Cassel and Quinn are unable to play), Pioli has enough sense to make a powerplay for a much better QB. The three I could see getting the most consideration in this hypothetical situation are Matt Moore, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. Moore has the most (and recent) experience in a Daboll-driven offense and could slide in and understand the terminology, assignments, etc. the easiest. Hasselbeck, on top of the reasons Paddy pointed out, not only provides consistently good play, but given his age would not be perceived as a threat to Cassel. And I think Sanchez is simply better than he’s given credit for: he’s actually improved every year he’s been in the league, he has playoff wins under his belt, and given a more stable locker room and stronger supporting offensive cast, I think he would surprise. Obviously, this hypothetical scenario also takes place later in the season where Moore, Hasselbeck and Sanchez may be seen as expendable for the right price. In any case, I don’t see Stanzi taking the field if the Chiefs still have a shot at the playoffs; until he shows us significantly more than he has, I think I’d rather see Zorn suit-up and take the field.

3. Following another lackluster game performance, Josh Bellamy’s stock has dropped some, but he should still be counted as a candidate for the last WR slot (though arguments for Markshausen and, as KCMikeG pointed out, Jamar Newsome have gotten stronger). Bear in mind that a) the last WR isn’t likely to sniff the active roster, b) injury to Bowe or Baldwin will be overcome by Breaston resuming the role of the No. 2 WR, a role he held for most of his career (remember: Boldin played out of the slot in Arizona), and c) an injury to McCluster will result in Breaston, and eventually Wylie, being able to fulfill the role being carved out by Dex. If Breaston or Wylie get injured, it’ll be a blow, but likely not a humongous one. If any two of Bowe, Baldwin and Breaston get injured, the Chiefs would definitely be in trouble, but unless both of those injuries were expected to be long-term, I’d anticipate we’d see Daboll calling for more 2-TE sets until one of the guys returned.

Cary Edmondson-US PRESSWIRE

4. I’ve grown quite fond of Kendrick Lewis. As last year wore on after Berry’s injury, Lewis started to improve by leaps and bounds, and I firmly believe he is a better player now than he otherwise would’ve been at this point in his career had Berry not been injured. In the face of adversity, Kendrick rose to the occasion, and how can you not love a player capable of that? But that being said, I agree with AA’s own Lyle Graversen that the loss of Flowers is greater than the loss of Lewis. Abram Elam will provide adequate temporary replacement of Lewis until Lewis can heal up; however, one of the greatest disappointments concerning Kendrick’s injury is that the newly implemented defensive scheme of putting Lewis and Elam in at safety and letting Eric Berry roam freely and wreak havoc is in danger of not being utilized until his Lewis’ return. Enter Travis Daniels. I’ll admit, I was pretty indifferent to Travis Daniels prior to this season (didn’t love him, didn’t hate him), but since he switched to taking on safety duties, I have a little more hope in his capability to make significant contributions to the team. There are two preseason games left, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see Daniels tested harder at safety to see if he can provide suitable replacement for Lewis in the new scheme so it can start being effectively used before Lewis heals up and returns. With Tamba a certain loss in the Atlanta game, and Flowers and Lewis uncertainties as to whether or not they’ll play, Daniels being coached up enough so that the new scheme isn’t a liability may be integral to a Chiefs victory on opening day. That may be a lot of faith to put into Daniels, but a roving Berry may be the team’s best hope for a victorious pass defense without Flowers, Lewis and Hali in the mix.

Thus concludes my predictions/observations for this week, Addicts. If you disagree with anything I’ve said or proposed, or think that there’s a player I’m not giving enough credit to (or giving too much credit to, for that matter), let me hear it in the “Comments” section. And as always, Go Chiefs!!!!!

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel find themselves in an uncommon predicament in Kansas City. The Chiefs have more depth than they’ve had in years, and it’s time to start pruning back the roster. While Pioli has more notable experience at this task due to his time in New England, RAC’s experience as HC in Cleveland was probably less “which player is better” and more “which player sucks less”.

Further, the CBA explicitly leaves it to each team to determine its own cutdown schedule, which for Pioli, at least, tasks him with determining what moves are best for the team that’ll play the regular season and what moves are best for the ledger. You see, while the Chiefs could hold, in theory, hold all players until the end of the preseason, making all cuts and practice squad assignments in one fell swoop, they also have to pay each player each week they remain on roster (plus housing, meals and other costs). For players that have not yet accrued one NFL season the rate is $850 per week. For the remaining players, who are considered veterans with at least one season under belt, the sum is $1,600 per week.

Being in a position not so concerned about the business aspect of the NFL, Crennel will obviously be interested in getting the best players for his team on the 53-man roster.

A few position groups look a little tighter than others and will warrant longer looks. The Chiefs’ RB/FB group, DL & OL look particularly tight. Their LB corps also looks tight outside of DJ, Hali, Houston & Belcher/Siler, but the talent dropoff is a little bit more noticeable for the remainders (which is bound to happen when compared to DJ, Hali and the emerging Houston). The WRs and DBs are overcrowded, but a few names are clearly improving and impressing over others so it might not be as tight as it looks on paper. QBs look pretty straightforward (Cassel, Quinn & Stanzi on roster and Tanney on the practice squad), as does TE (Boss, Moeaki & Maneri on roster for sure; maybe Biere or O’Connell if they decide to keep a fourth).

A couple important things to note is that, while it is a 53-man roster, the practice squad is allowed up to 8 players (9 if the team puts an international player on the squad as the 9th person, which doesn’t look to be pertinent to the Chiefs this year). So realistically, of the 90 men on roster, only 29 must be cut from the team completely. Also an interesting point to note is that, while any team can sign a player from another team’s practice squad, they may only do so in the interest of adding the player to the second team’s own 53-man roster; the CBA prohibits teams from taking a player off another team’s practice squad just to turn around and put the player on their own practice squad.

Following Preseason Week 1, here are a few observations and predictions concerning how Pioli & Co. may handle the cuts this season:

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

1. Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray both look like they could be solid contributors in the regular season. Putting one of these players on the practice squad could be synonymous with cutting them, as I think another team would be likely to clear a spot on their 53-man roster to take a chance on them. Inversely, I don’t see the Chiefs carrying more than 4 players in the backfield, which means they might have to do without a fulltime FB. Hillis can provide these services, if needed, and the team’s decision to crosstrain a few TEs in the role may make Shane Bannon expendable. Notice I said “expendable” rather than “relegated to the practice squad for another year”. The Steelers starting FB went down to an ACL tear during the Steelers preseason opener against the Eagles, and is likely to be out for the entire season.* The Steelers have a way of making good use of their FB on roster and may be looking to replace him for the season. Todd Haley might look no further than KC in recommending a replacement to HC Mike Tomlin, and Haley’s eyes may be on the waiver wire or KC’s practice squad (as the case may be). Now the Steelers have shown a tendency to prefer FBs that are more in the FB/TE hybrid vein, so maybe this circumstance won’t arise, but it bears keeping an eye on.

* Been there, right? Hey, maybe the injury bug followed Haley to Pittsburgh. Wouldn’t that be nice?

2. In limited punting opportunities, K/P Matt Szymanski put up numbers comparable to Colquitt’s. Additionally, Szymanski did consistently great during his opportunities on placekicking duties. While it’s likely that Colquitt will remain the Chiefs’ punter this season, and that the Chiefs won’t carry more than one kicker and one punter on the 53-man roster (other position groups are too crowded and the additional spot could be better used elsewhere), more importance has been placed on STs this year, and the future prospect of only needing to use one roster slot for a K and P is enticing (and we all know Pioli loves versatility). I expect Szymanski to get a practice squad slot and to receive a lot of focus on punting this season. If it looks like he could suitably replace Colquitt, Pioli may just let Dustin’s contract expire at the end of the season and move forward with the player that may potentially develop into a suitable K as well a few years down the line.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

3. The DL looks thicker. Just a few months ago a lot of fans were taking it for granted that players like Powe and Amon Gordon would make the roster, myself included; now, I’m not too sure. Toribio has progressed more than any of us probably anticipated and will likely remain in the Top 2 in the depth chart at NT. Gordon does have an edge on Powe, as he can handle either DE or NT duties, but even there depth at DE looks just as thick and may not accommodate Gordon. Besides Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey, the Chiefs have Allen Bailey who looks to provide the team with a better pass rush from the DL, the solidly built veteran Ropati Pitoitua, and Brandon Bair has started to make a little bit of noise on the field. Eight players for the DL seems like a little much, especially if Poe can prove his stamina before the preseason is over and be a three-down player. Powe may have a shot of making the roster, if RAC determines that Dontari can provide DE services consistently enough to go with the anticipated NT services (thereby rendering Gordon as aged and obsolete a’la Kelly Gregg). But as of right now, I expect 7 men to carry over to the 53-man roster with the last spot going to either Bair or Gordon.

4. My fourth and final prediction following Week 1 concerns the WR situation. I can reasonably see 7 WRs making it to the 53-man roster. Bowe, Baldwin, Breaston, McCluster & Wylie are almost sure to be locks with the remaining WRs duking it out for the last two slots. I think Terrence Copper’s proven effectiveness on special teams and his veteran presence might give him an edge for the sixth slot. The real battle will be over the final slot, and I think the top contenders will be Josh Bellamy, Zeke Markhausen and Junior Hemingway. Markhausen has more experience (though ever so slightly) over the other two, Bellamy has been turning heads in practice (though his play was a little lackluster against the Cards), and Pioli and the KC scouts obviously saw something they liked in Hemingway (though injuries have plagued his training thus far). Hemingway’s injuries haven’t just deterred the Chiefs from getting a good read on him, but the other NFL teams likely won’t risk a roster slot on him, plus his upside looks better than Markhausen, so Junior might be a prime candidate for the practice squad. This leaves Bellamy and Markhausen vying for the last slot. Zeke having enough experience to be a little more used to the speed of the game at the NFL level is reassuring; however, Bellamy has created buzz and may not stay around long if relegated to the practice squad. Additionally, Bellamy has a certain kind of experience that no other KC WR has: Bellamy played double duty, as needed, in college as both a WR and a CB. While ultimately going undrafted and getting signed by the Chiefs as a WR, Bellamy may have future stock in being crosstrained for defense. But for the here and now, Bellamy could earn a roster spot for his ST ability as his time playing D in college likely means that his tackling technique is noticeably more refined than his competitions’ at WR in KC. I expect Bellamy to continue to work hard in practice and to earn a spot on this year’s roster.

So there’s my take following Preseason Week 1. What’s your take, Addicts? Sound off…

I slept just three hours on the eve of the pre-season opener for the Kansas City Chiefs. When 6am arrived, I was ready to spring out of bed and into a hot, steamy shower. I dressed quickly and darted out of my dimly lit apartment. For once I was on time for work and excited to settle into my 8-by-10 cubicle. I’d planned to spend the entire day perusing Chiefs-related websites. I freely admit that Fridays tend to be my least productive workdays. Why should the first official Red Friday, for the Chiefs 2012 campaign, have been any different? I’ll spare you the details of a monotonous workday and my errand-running afterward. You want to know about my gameday experience, and I’m anxious to share.

So here are my Top 10 thoughts (a la Letterman) on my Arrowhead experience:

10. The Kansas City Rumble Drumline is awful. I’m not sure whose idea it was to add them to the stadium presentation, but it just doesn’t cut it. The drummers are talented, but their routines are utterly uninspired. Their performances don’t translate particularly well to the jumbotron either. The natural sound delays (no fault of the stadium’s staff) render the visual useless. Tony DiPardo is sorely missed at One Arrowhead Drive.

9. Did anyone get a load of the kid who lifted his shirt and rubbed his nipples on the ordinarily family-friendly FanCam? The crew is obviously still in pre-season form as they never bothered to cut away from the boy. That was a golden moment. Pure comedy gold.

8. Paying just $10 to park outside the stadium, just north of I-70, was delightful. If ever you need some post-game entertainment, watching inebriated fans trying to climb the hill at the northeast edge of the parking lot ought to do the trick.

7. Steve Maneri was impressive with 69 receiving yards. Surprisingly, that led all Chiefs pass-catchers. It’s the pre-season though so Chiefs fans will have to curb their enthusiasm. Lest he become the Jesse Haynes of 2012.

6. As a longtime Hip Hop aficionado, I was pleased to hear seminal 90′s acts: Onyx, Lords of the Underground and Public Enemy pumped through the stadium’s PA after big defensive plays. Though there was a moment where a Ludacris lyric made my skin crawl. It wasn’t for any personal reasons, but I couldn’t help but to think about all of the kids in attendance. Let’s just say it detailed an encounter with an exotic dancer and her hindquarters.

5. Remember the sixth-round draft pick I said would contibute in 2012? He led all Chiefs RB’s with 65 rushing yards on Friday night. He punctuated his pre-season debut with a 7-yard touchdown scamper. It’s early, but my prediction’s on track.

4. Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi were unimpressive to say the least. Backup QB was believed to be one of the most hotly-contested position battles coming into training camp. Despite having split 3.5 quarters, there were only 9 completions between them. Tyler Palko is not amused.

3. Think Eric Winston will be a difference-maker along Kansas City’s offensive line? Watch the Peyton Hillis 28-yard run thrice then thank your lucky stars for Barry Richardson’s incompetence and for salary cap casualties.

2. Anthony Toribio was rock solid against the Cardinals. He made a case for continuing to run with the first team (at least for another week). Toribio was strong at the point. He collapsed the pocket on a pass play and stuffed Cardinals Runningback Alfonso Smith on a run. Seemed as though the Chiefs Linebackers were clean and able to make plays with Toribio helping to absorb blockers.

1. Brian Daboll got the offense rolling. The Chiefs found paydirt on back-to-back offensive series. Can you recall the last time that happened in a pre-season game (or any other game for that matter)? I didn’t see the vertical attack-style offense that Daboll’s been boasting about all off-season, but schemes are typically pretty vanilla this time of the year. I’ll reserve judgment for the next two or three weeks.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

As a Chiefs fan, I can vividly remember two instances where the loss of a player has provoked a large emotional response from me. Now don’t get me wrong, there are a series of wins and losses by our boys in Red and Gold that have either left me grinning from ear to ear or ready to punch a wall. However, there are two days in Chiefs’ history where the loss of a player has left me nearly speechless.

The first day in memory was February 8, 2000. It had been nearly two weeks since the news of Derrick Thomas’ accident. However, the incident still seemed surreal. Fellow fans and I had prayed for Derrick’s health and even convinced ourselves that he would be able to rebound from his injuries and play next season, regardless of what the new was telling us. To my friends and me, Derrick was Superman. He was the first true hero we had growing up. We remembered when he was drafted and how our dads were so excited about his prospects. I was personally in attendance when he gained nearly semi-permanent residence in Dave Kreig’s kitchen on Veterans Day in 1990. I had seen Derrick turn the tide of a game with one big play. We just knew that on any given Sunday he would blow past the offensive tackle and knock the ball away from the quarterback. We kept telling ourselves that Derrick would pull through and we would be able to see him ransack opposing backfields once more.

Then the news came. For me it was local sports radio. I was in college at the time and was on the debate team at Wichita State. I was just leaving for campus to prepare for the next weekend’s tournament when I heard the news. I had to pull over. I couldn’t believe what I had just heard. When I finally made it to campus and walked into the squad room there, my friend Brian was there as well. Words didn’t need to be spoken. We both knew the magnitude of the loss. We not only lost a Chief, but we lost a hero and a role model to so many. Those effected by his charity, especially those children who were given help through the Third and Long foundation, as well as the rest of our heroes in Red and Gold would be dramatically affected. While developing this story I spoke to another friend who is a lifelong Oilers/Titans fan. He too was able to remember where he was when the news broke on Sports Center. He can almost recall it as visibly as when he found out about the death of Steve McNair.

Carl Peterson said it just right in 2004: “…our defense has never been the same since we lost him…Time and new players have not been able to make the Chiefs whole.” This sentiment was not lost on the Kansas City faithful as the city has never been the same. However, ol’ Carl was able to say it right once again when he spoke at Derrick’s Hall of Fame induction: “For all Derrick Thomas fans, the light has gone back on.” I can’t even imagine the list of what Chief’s fans would give just to have Derrick back with us and to be able to see him even as an ambassador at Chiefs’ games. Even if Derrick was unable to play football after the accident, his leadership and presence would mean the world to everyone in Kansas City.

On April 23, 2009 I was watching ESPN when the news of the Tony Gonzalez trade came across the screen. I had heard rumors before the announcement but once again I dismissed them like I did with the negative possibilities of Derrick Thomas after his accident. I felt there was no way that the Chiefs could let Tony go. To me it would have been the same as trading Derrick away when he just had a few seasons left. There was no way that number 88 could show up in any other color other than those of the Chiefs. I didn’t think much of Haley and the jury was still out on Pioli but there was no way that they could be dumb enough to let the leader of the team and the greatest offensive player the Chiefs had ever had go to anyone, even an NFC team. What were they thinking when they even entertained the idea?

I was in denial for months. Even when I made my way to the stadium for the first preseason game the next season I was still donning my Gonzalez jersey. Something in the back of my mind told me that it was all a bad dream and when the team came out of the tunnel, Tony would still be there. But quickly my denial turned to despair. Tony Gonzalez was a Falcon and we may never again see him in a Chiefs uniform.

But I was talking to a fellow sports reporter today and the question came up. What if Tony G. hadn’t been traded? What if he was allowed to finish his career in Kansas City? How would the team be different if our leader was still on the field? Let’s take a look and see how things may be different.

First, I wanted to take a look at other offensive talent and see if we would be in the same place. There are a few players that I believe would be directly affected if Tony was still a Chief. In no particular order, they are:

Dwayne Bowe: Now Dwayne was limited to eleven games in 2009, Tony’s first year with Atlanta. But for Bowe, his true breakout year was 2010. He had 1162 yards, 15 touchdowns and 55 first downs. Last year he was only three yards short of his previous total, but was ten touchdowns short of 2010. Some of the decrease in scoring can be attributed to the quarterback issues, some to play-calling and some to Dwayne being lazy. Call me a fool, however, but I think his performance would have been similar with a few additional touchdowns with Tony G. in the lineup. Remember that Gonzalez would take the attention of more than just a linebacker. In some cases, the number one cornerback would be on Tony G. Gonzalez caused defensive coordinators to make drastic changes in some of their schemes. With both Bowe and Gonzales on the same side of the ball, and assuming the rest of the personnel at the receiver position was the same, Bowe would be able to get open on a few more scoring plays and gain a few more first downs.

Tony Moeaki – The question would be whether or not Moeaki would still be drafted by the Chiefs. My gut tells me that Pioli would have been smart enough to know that Tony G. only had a couple more years left in the tank and that with Moeaki’s physical ability and Gonzalez leadership, he would be drafting a more than suitable replacement. Now granted his rookie production would be lower. Moeaki may have benefited from Gonzalez being in the lineup by not being in the same situation where he was injured. He would have most likely had another great two years of learning behind the future hall of famer. Not that Moeaki’s future isn’t bright now, but imagine the benefit of having Tony G. as a mentor for three years.

Jamaal Charles – As with Bowe you could argue that Jamaal would have less of an opportunity for production with Gonzalez in the lineup. However, I see two potential benefits for Charles with Tony G. in the lineup. First, Gonzalez is a great blocker as a tight end. He was great when the Chiefs ran the ball and was just as great down-field on passing plays. I would say that Jamaal may have a slight reduction in carries, but his yards per carry would be the same if not slightly better and we would see very similar production from JC.

Matt Cassel – You can’t argue that Cassel would be more successful with Gonzalez in the lineup. One of the benefits of having Tony G. in the lineup is his big body that is beneficial in traffic as well as a great football mind that can make the decisions when reading defenses and making adjustments. Having this additional option as well as another leader on the field would most definitely help relieve some of the pressure of off Matt and help him mature as a quarterback.

As with Moeaki, there would also be the chance that the Chiefs would not acquire either Steve Breaston or Jonathan Baldwin. However, as I mentioned before, the need for each position would still exist even with Tony G. in the lineup. My belief is that those most affected in terms of production would be the third, fourth and fifth wide receivers and the third tight end position. Dexter McCluster would have a reduced role, primarily used in the running game. In terms of current personnel, we may not have seen the arrival of Kevin Boss. Otherwise, I believe that the Chiefs would look very similar on offense.

For Gonzalez, his production on the field has been slightly lower with the Falcons than it was with the Chiefs. Over the past three years, he has averaged 77 receptions, 799 yards and six touchdowns per season. His yards per reception have also been slightly lower than during his heyday with the Chiefs. Now, there are a few potential reasons for the decline in production. First, it could be an issue of Gonzo’s age. However, remember that he went to his 12th Pro Bowl last year. Yahoo Sports proclaimed that even with his age that Gonzalez is still a top five tight end. The Bleacher Report claims that Tony G. is one of the four players that the Falcons cannot lose to injury this year and the Atlanta Journal Constitution says that Gonzo shows no signs of slowing down.

Secondly, and most likely, Gonzalez’s reduced statistical production is due to the many weapons available in Atlanta. The Falcons have Michael Turner in the backfield along with Julio Jones and Roddy White in their receiving corps. Even the young Harry Douglas had significant production last year. On the other side of the coin, you could argue that the Chiefs have had similar weapons available.

So what difference, if any, would Tony G have made with the Chiefs over the past few years? He would have definitely been a welcome help during the AFC Championship season two years ago, being the difference in close games. I can’t say that the win total would have increased dramatically. However, games such as the overtime loss in Oakland or the overtime thriller against the Bills are times when Tony could have definitely made things easier for the Chiefs. I doubt the playoff picture would have changed much and even Gonzalez couldn’t have helped us beat the Ravens that day.

Last season could have been a different story. The Chiefs were literally two field goals away from the playoffs, even with the injuries. However, overcoming the start led by Todd Haley’s choices would have taken a superman-like effort. There was a three point loss to the Chargers, with the now infamous screen pass. I’m not sure if even Tony G. would have been able to help the team overcome the lethargic first half or the miscues that ultimately gave the game to the Chargers. The same can be said for the loss at home against the Broncos where the Chiefs were literally dominated during the first half of football. The Steelers game would be another tough bet as the quarterback play ultimately killed the team. The only loss that may have been averted was the overtime loss to the Raiders. The Chiefs would still have been one game short of the playoffs.

Now a colleague of mine raised an interesting point. Would the play-calling been different if Gonzales was in the lineup to where Moeaki, Charles and Berry wouldn’t have been in the situations that caused their injuries? It is quite possible. However, the coaching staff did not have the Chiefs ready to play football those first three games. Tony G. couldn’t have made that much of a difference and may have been in harm’s way, just like Moeaki was. Even the man who treats his body like a temple could have still suffered the same fate.

Overall, it would be amazing to have Tony Gonzales still in the Red and Gold. His presence alone could help the team succeed, especially this season, as it may be Gonzo’s last. The extra motivation to get Gonzalez to his only Super Bowl in his final season would be a great story for the Chiefs. Alas, we may never see Tony in a Chiefs uniform again. I’m sure he will be inducted into the Chiefs Hall of Fame. When he makes it up the hallowed steps in Canton, he will be there as a Chief. Maybe we can talk Scott Pioli and the coaching staff into signing Gonzales for one game next year. Bring him in for a few plays in the red zone and try to get that one last slam dunk over the goal posts. That would be a fitting end to the career of Tony Gonzalez.

What do you think Addicts? Has there been a loss of another player that affected you like the loss of DT and Gonzalez? Would the presence of Tony G. been enough to get the Chiefs to the playoffs last year? Would Tony make enough difference in his last season that he could get the boys in Red and Gold to the Super Bowl?

 Last time, we explored what to expect from, and what should be expected of, Jeff Allen this year. Moving forward with our examination of our newest offensive linemen, we turn our attention to Donald Stephenson.

Donald Stephenson only played two years in college which some people are taking as a cause for concern. But when he did play, it was at the position on the line with perhaps the least margin for error: blind-side tackle. I say “blind-side tackle” because LT is only the toughest position when the QB’s right-handed (okay: so that’s the case, like, 99.5 percent of the time), but what makes it tough is not which side of the center you’re playing at, but the fact that the QB can’t see what’s coming from your direction and a failed block could result in huge consequences (ask Joe Thiesman).

At his time at Oklahoma, Stephenson logged over 100 knockdowns in each of his two years starting. For comparison, Jeff Allen averaged somewhere in the mid-80s per year over a four year span in college. Additionally, at the NFL level, 100 knockdowns is generally the benchmark for OLs to hit if they wish to be in serious contention for a Pro Bowl berth.

A knockdown is almost as simple as it sounds like… almost. A knockdown is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground, and there are two types of knockdown. The first type, which doesn’t really have a special name, is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground and move on to take on a still-standing defender. The second type is called a “pancake” and consists of, as you’re knocking a player down, following him to the ground, landing on top of him, and staying put (effectively removing any chance that defender had of making a stop for the rest of that play, since, if you can’t get up, you likely can’t tackle/sack anybody, you can’t defend/intercept any passes and you can’t force/recover any fumbles).

Regular knockdowns are preferable for running plays when the OL is serving as a lead blocker. In this case, when a defender is knocked down, by the time he gets back up the play is long past him. Pancakes are best reserved as the type of knockdown to use in a pass play. As I previously stated, if you can’t get up, you can’t get sacks/interceptions/etc. Knockdowns are one of few stats kept track of for OLs throughout their football careers (you’ll also see stats for sacks allowed, QB hurries allowed and TD-resulting blocks). When you hear “knockdown” just remember that this number includes pancakes. Like all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares, all pancakes are knockdowns but not all knockdowns are pancakes.

Essentially, Stephenson did very well in neutralizing players in large part due to this ability. To boot, the Oklahoma line as a whole only gave up 11 sacks last season… as a whole!

So, if Stephenson played so well, why did he only start for two years in college? When Stephenson arrived in Oklahoma he found himself behind junior OT Trent Williams on the depth chart. The same Trent Williams that the Redskins chose as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. When Williams arrived in Oklahoma in 2006 he found himself in a similar quandary sitting behind OT Branndon Braxton. Fortunately (for Williams) Braxton went down to injury partway into the 2006 season and Williams was afforded the opportunity to showcase his abilities as a freshman. The next season the coaches split snaps between Williams and Braxton. Stephenson wasn’t quite so fortunate to receive a similar opportunity; following Braxton’s departure, Williams did not miss college playing time with the exception of the last regular season game of his senior year.

We should probably give Stephenson a little more attention than we have been, don’t you think?

Stephenson is set to be a “swing” tackle this year. If Albert or Winston need a breather, Stephenson will be our guy. And believe it or not, swing tackle is one of the tougher jobs on the offensive line. Don’t believe me? You’ve seen a tackle come out of his stance before; one of the first things he does is flip his hips to the outside. Get out of your chair and try it. To spare you some embarrassment (or at least an explanation to your co-workers), I won’t ask you to get down in a three-point stance; you can start off in a position that still has a good bend in the knees and waist. Now, open your hips out to the right (like a RT) bringing your arms up like you’re blocking. Now, try it opening your hips out to the left. One of those felt more natural and fluid than the other, didn’t it?* This plays a large part of why great RTs can make lousy LTs, and vice versa; you’re trying to get your body to do something that just doesn’t feel right.

* It did.

In order to excel in the swing tackle role (truly excel), Stephenson will have to rep this over and over and over again until opening his hips one way feels just as natural and fluid as opening his hips the other way to realize similar success at both positions (LT and RT). Thankfully, his success in college at LT seems to indicate that he’s well versed in opening his hips to the left, so Cassel won’t have to worry much about his blindside when Albert needs a break. How well Stephenson will do when Winston needs a break is the bigger question mark right now.

I am a huge proponent of the “lockup Albert to a long-term deal” crowd, and I think Winston is a Godsend, but Stephenson will be a significant contributor. As Paddy recently pointed out, Albert is ranked highly in pass protection, and Winston in run blocking. If Stephenson can spell our players for a stretch of plays they’re less successful at (Albert on runs and Winston on passes), it’ll keep our starters fresh and read to dominate even more on the plays they’re best at. That would be a significant contribution.

So is Stephenson a starter this year? No. Will he be a starter for the Chiefs in the long-term? Not if Pioli does his job and extends Albert’s contract. But he will play an important part in our line’s success this year, and that is worth a third-round pick.

Well played, Pioli, well played…

Last week hope remained that Bowe would be offered a multi-year contract before Monday’s deadline, and I took upon myself to answer a few questions regarding NFL contracts and the salary cap that may have been on fans’ minds.

This week we know that Bowe and the Chiefs didn’t reach a multi-year deal. In the wake of this news it’s apparent that pretty much every fan knows that Bowe has the option to sit out the year or sign a contract to play the 2012 season, but there are a few questions/misunderstandings on the finer points that have cropped up in discussions across the web that could use some clarifying.

If Bowe opts to sit out this year, will he be penalized?

It depends on how you define “penalized.” The Exclusive Franchise Player tag means he can only sign a deal with the Chiefs to play this season*; however, it does not mean he is under contract. Not being under contract, Bowe should expect that by not playing football he won’t earn a paycheck, and probably doesn’t view it so much as a penalty as it is a necessary evil if he decides not to play. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play this season before the first regular season game, he’ll be due the entire sum of $9.5 million. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play after the first regular season game, the $9.5 million figure will be reduced proportionately. At no point would Bowe be expected to give up more than the amount of the franchise tender. So if you want to call it a penalty, just be aware that it’s more of a passive penalty than a proactive penalty. Basically, full play = full pay, partial play = partial pay & no play = no pay (there is no no play = no pay + additional penalties). Personally, refusing to give something to someone who has yet to earn it isn’t really a penalty in my book.

* The CBA expressly forbids the assignment or transferring of this exclusive negotiating right to another team**.

** Yes, this means that the rumor that Bowe was on the trading block during the Draft back in April is totally baseless, as Pioli and the FO would certainly have known that he couldn’t be traded.

If Bowe sits out the season, can he be franchised next year?

Yes. However, the CBA requires that such a tag be a Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag. Under such a tag, Bowe would be free to negotiate a deal with other teams, but the Chiefs would maintain a Right to First Refusal. In this scenario, if the Chiefs would elect to not match the other team’s offer they would have the right to be compensated with a first-round draft pick and a third-round draft pick in the upcoming draft.

What happens to the salary cap if Bowe decides to sit out the full season?

If by 3 p.m. (CST) on the first Tuesday after Week 10 of the regular season arrives, and Bowe is still not under contract, two things happen:

1)  Bowe will be prohibited from playing football for the remainder of the League year.

2)  The entire $9.5 million currently earmarked for Bowe through the franchise tag will be released back into the team’s available funds.

So, if Bowe doesn’t play this year, he doesn’t get any money, but the team doesn’t lose its money either (they’d get it back and could roll it over into next year’s cap if they so choose).

What can happen with the franchise tag if Bowe does play this season?

There would be no restrictions on the type of franchise tag (Exclusive Player or Non-Exclusive Player) that the Chiefs could use if Bowe plays under the tag this season. In this scenario, if the Chiefs extend Bowe the Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag and another team makes Bowe an offer the Chiefs don’t want to match, draft pick compensation would come to the tune of two first-round draft picks in the upcoming Draft.

The argument can be made, and I’m making it now, that if Baldwin, Breaston & Co. show enough progression to make Pioli comfortable with risking the loss of Bowe altogether, this may mean very great things for the future of our franchise. Yeah, we’d lose perhaps one of our greatest receivers in franchise history, but we’d be gaining much more ammunition for making a move towards one of the greater QBs coming out in the draft, and we wouldn’t quite be “trading the farm” like the ‘Skins did this year for RGIII. That’s a temptation that absolutely has to be considered, and I don’t think we should blame Pioli one bit for taking it into account (which I’m sure he has).

Are multi-year negotiations totally off the table until free agency begins next offseason?

No. Though it is off the table for the time being, the CBA allows negotiations for a multi-year contract to resume following the team’s final game of the regular season. So even if the franchise tag is unavailable for use on Bowe next year (i.e. if it’s being used on another player such as Albert or Dorsey) given the length of time between the playoffs and when free agency begins, Bowe and the Chiefs will have about two months to work out a long-term deal before other teams could begin negotiating with Bowe.

_____________

All-in-all, it looks like not signing Bowe to a long-term deal now is not the end of the world. In fact, between the compensatory picks we could potentially gain by letting Bowe go through a Non-Exclusive Franchise tag next season, and the compensatory picks we’ll get for the FA losses we incurred this season (Carr, Orton and the like), we’re looking at the possibility of having a MASSIVE draft next season, and I’m almost already salivating at the thought of what that could mean. We’re on the brink of greatness, Addicts, and one way or another Bowe will be a key component in how we get there: be it as a Chief, or a bargaining chip.

May 13, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs first round draft pick Dontari Poe (92, right) and defensive end Ethan Johnson (70) run drills with defensive line coach Anthony Pleasant at the Kansas City Chiefs practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

When considering the Chiefs’ choice to draft Dontari Poe, it’s hard for the average football fan to ignore his lack of college production, or the negative connotations of being labeled a “workout warrior.” One thing is clear, however: Poe’s lot in the NFL will be made, first and foremost, at the NT position. As we get closer to training camp (a/k/a the first time this year that our linemen can actually, you know, HIT one another), let’s take an in-depth look at Poe and the road ahead.

Romeo Crennel will be the first to point out that Poe did a whole lot of line jumping in college. It’s actually hard to recall if Poe ever lined up in the same “technique” in consecutive plays during his time in Memphis. As Poe’s college coaches and coordinators often played him at several spots throughout the line each and every game, the case could be made that this position jumping is the cause of Poe’s lack of college production. It may even be fair, to an extent, to at least allow some of Poe’s line jumping to account for his lack of college production… but while the tape shows the jumping, it also shows that Poe needs to work on and refine the technical skills (moves) needed by a defensive lineman.

Watching Poe’s tape, you may occasionally see an effective spin move or a well-executed stunt, but he seems to show signs of not having been entirely taught proper execution of the moves and/or which moves are most effectively used in which situations. DL moves other than spin moves and stunts include rip moves, swim moves, speed rushes, bull rushes, shucks and shivers.

From the NT position, the chance to use a spin move (at least effectively and without blowing your assignment) is slim to nil; such opportunities may arise, but not enough that this should be a focus for Poe early on in KC. The same can be said with a speed rush. Lining up head to head on a player (for NTs on the Center, this is often referred to as a “zero technique”), swim moves also carry their risks, as a swim move will bring the D-Lineman up a little higher, in turn allowing the blocker the opportunity to get squarely underneath the DL’s pads and win the leverage war. Stunts* are a more advanced technique and, while I’m sure Poe will eventually be taught and repped on these until he can perform them expertly, I don’t see him attempting these too often this year (at least in the earlier part) unless out of desperation or for the sake of “mixing it up” Crennel calls a play directing Poe to do so. Shucks and shivers are a little difficult to explain in writing, and are slightly more advanced than rips and bull rushes, so I won’t get into them too much now.

*”Stunt” as used here is not in reference to the two types of stunts as described here. Rather I’m referring to the “4-3 Stunt” as utilized and popularized by “Mean” Joe Greene, wherein the DT lines up at an angle and bull rushes the first OL he’s facing with the goal of driving that OL into his neighboring OL(s). The camera work on Poe’s infamous Tulane tape isn’t always at great angles for checking out Poe, but there’s one really good shot of Poe performing a well-executed, successful, Mean-Joe-Greene-style stunt. This happened in some of his other college games too, with the same promising result. In a 3-4, this won’t be the first thing on the coaching staff’s list of things to work on and perfect with Poe, but may come in handy down the line (think 2-4-5 in an obvious passing situation: with added coverage already downfield, if Poe’s able to take out 2-3 OL on his own, it would spell trouble for opposing QBs, especially with the likes of Hali, Houston & Berry on the field… and we’re not talking “taking out” 2-3 OL by being double-teamed or triple-teamed, in that scenario one could always break off to pick up a blitzer. No, we’re talking TAKING OUT as in 2-3 OL suddenly on their asses wondering “Who dat? Who dere?”). Look for this ability to be groomed in the longer term Evolution of Poe.

So, other moves aside, we’re left with the rip, and the bull rush … and our first expectation. Expect these moves to be the first technical skills that Romeo and DL Coach Anthony Pleasant drill into Dontari. How and why these moves work is simple to understand, and should be quick for Poe to pick up in that respect. Knowing when and how to execute these moves well will take time and repetition until the moves becomes more natural and fluid. Priority One in developing Poe will likely be to jump on the live-action thrill of drilling him in these moves.

As I believe most casual fans will know what a rip move is and why it’s used (thank you for making my job easier, EA Sports), I’ll spare going into those details.

A bull rush is also fairly common and self-explanatory, and while I won’t go into too much detail, it’s important to note that bull rushes should play to Poe’s advantage well and should (read: darn well better) become one of his earliest playing strengths. Poe’s size and strength give him an edge in bull rushing, but it’s also important not to gloss over some finer points in the technique in practice (which, given his size and strength, I suspect his Memphis coaches kinda relied on Poe getting by with those attributes alone and didn’t care to coach him more in depth). You can be big and strong in the NFL and still make only a small splash of impact if not taught how to use your size and strength to your advantage. With the bull rush in particular, size and strength could be a huge advantage, but it takes combining that size and strength with body positioning (coming up out of your stance, hand placement, getting low, etc.) to really start seeing great results. Coaches on varying levels may not allow some of their players to rep bull rushes in practice under the misguided notion that size and strength alone will be enough for a player to translate into good bull rushing talent come gameday. Not really. Coaches Crennel and Pleasant will know this, and they’ll be sure to rep and develop Poe into a player capable of making the most out of his bull rushing capabilities.

While teaching, drilling and repping Poe through these activities on the practice field, expect for Crennel and Pleasant to also be teaching him the mental aspects of the position in the film room: what assignments he’ll have in which plays, when to clog, when to penetrate, when move X is more likely to make your assignment, and when move Y is better, etc.

One thing to bear in mind is that “trench warfare” isn’t as rudimentary as it may appear (as if you haven’t gathered that from above). On either side of the ball, each lineman possesses his own strengths and weaknesses according to his physical attributes and technical skills which affect how he plays the game. When squaring off, it takes time to figure out your competitor’s nuances and adjust accordingly (an ongoing battle, as with each adjustment you make to your competitor, your competitor will adjust to deal with your adjustments).

So, Poe’s college stats weren’t too impressive, and his tape looks “average”? Consider this: Poe likely squared off with every offensive lineman Conference USA had to offer. And with each lineman, Poe had to learn new nuances and adjust accordingly, all while facing different blocking schemes at different techniques along the line with different defensive assignments… Altogether, it makes it hard for the common observer to tell what kind of player he’ll become.

So, Poe’s college stats don’t look special. He only appears to show “flashes” in his college tape. Know this: the difficulties and intricacies of line play are greater and more plentiful than meets the eye, and are largely unappreciated by the masses. But one thing’s for sure, with his rare physical attributes, AND the opportunity to line up and take most snaps at one position, AND squaring off against fewer competitors in a game, AND being under the guidance and tutelage of both Coaches Crennel and Pleasant, Poe is much more likely to succeed than to bust.

With the clock ticking closer to the franchise tag deadline, I figured I would take this opportunity to address a few aspects that most fans [read: people who don’t get paid for it] may find themselves wondering about these two.

Don’t all teams have the same salary cap?

Yes and no. The league sets a salary cap at the beginning of the league year (usually in late April/early March before free agency begins). This cap is for the season following the offseason and may be greater or lesser than the previous season’s salary cap (rarely is it exactly the same). This year’s salary cap is $120.6 million. Salary caps differ when teams conduct their business in certain ways, whether for better or worse. The new CBA allows for unused salary cap money to rollover between years. So teams may find themselves with more cap space than the league determined salary cap. Inversely, if a team violates any league rules or standards, their salary cap may be lessened for punitive reasons*. In both cases, teams wind up with what is referred to as their own “adjusted salary cap.”

*This most recently occurred with DAL and WAS for allocating large salary/bonus sums into the uncapped 2011 season. As penalty, these teams’ salary caps were artificially lowered for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and has-been/will-be distributed amongst 28 teams. Why 28? OAK & NO conducted their business in a similar manner but to a lesser extent, so rather than proactively punishing these two teams by removing cap space, the League passively punished them by just not including them in the redistribution process.

Who keeps track of adjusted salary caps?

A teams’ management is acutely aware of their cap number; however, the NFL must approve all contracts and bonuses and will reject any such deals that would exceed a team’s adjusted salary cap.

Do only player wages count towards the salary cap?

Yes. Wages paid to coaches, trainers, club staff, etc. do not apply towards the salary cap.

What “player wages” count towards the salary cap?

Simply speaking, wages include the player’s base salary, signing bonus, roster bonuses and any other bonuses or incentives.

What’s a player’s base salary?

It is what it sounds like. A base salary is determined in the negotiation process, and the salary is remitted to the player either weekly or bi-weekly (in equal portions) over the course of the NFL regular season. [Ex: A player has a base salary of $1.7 million and is paid weekly. The regular season consists of 17 weeks; so, the player would receive $100,000 in base salary each week of the regular season.]

There’s a lot of talk about signing bonuses: How do they work?

A signing bonus is at it sounds: a bonus earned by a player for signing a new contract or extension. The player receives the entire sum upfront, but the team may prorate the total over the course of up to five seasons, meaning that, for example, a $10 million signing bonus may be evenly distributed over five seasons so that the team’s salary cap only takes a hit of $2 million per season. Signing bonuses are guaranteed, meaning that if a player is traded or retires after receiving the bonus, the prorated costs stick around* (in talking salary caps, this is what is referred to as “dead money” as the team still has to pay towards a service they are no longer getting).

* A team may file a grievance if they give a player a huge signing bonus and he retires shortly thereafter without good reason. It’s called the “Barry Sanders Rule”, so guess who pulled that stunt?

What about roster bonuses?

Another common bonus, the roster bonus is earned if/when a player makes the 53-man roster in the regular season during the year in which the roster bonus is worked into a contract. The entire roster bonus affects the team’s salary cap for the season it is earned in and may not be spread over the course of several years such as the salary cap.

What other bonuses are there?

Other bonuses may include option bonuses and incentive bonuses. As these are slightly more complex and tougher to explain, and as we’re making “molehills” here, we’ll spare that discussion for another time.

Now, how does this relate to the Chiefs and Bowe?

The Chiefs reportedly have a little over $16.5 million remaining in their cap space. Though he hasn’t signed the tender, the $9.5 million offered to Bowe through the franchise tag has already been counted against the Chiefs’ cap space because it is money that has already been committed to a player (even though the player it’s committed to hasn’t officially accepted the offer yet). If Bowe does not sign a new deal and just signs the tender, the Chiefs’ reported cap of $16.5 million will not be affected. In simpler terms, the $9.5 million offered to Bowe in the form of a franchise tag is considered already spent and is not counted in the $16.5 million that the team reportedly has freely available. So, in theory, if the Chiefs offer Bowe a deal that he’ll accept, part of that deal could allow Bowe to be given as much money for the 2012 season as to cause a $24 million cap hit* for 2012 and it’d be permissible by the NFL for them to do so. It’d be crazy for them to do so (Fitz and Megatron don’t even cause that large of a hit in any given year), but the money’s there.

* Note: Poe remains unsigned… we can intelligently guess he’ll get the rookie minimum of $390,000 in base salary, like the other first-rounders who have been signed thus far, but we’re not sure what he’ll get in terms of signing bonus. Also this time of year, only the highest paid 51 players on the team count towards the cap… eventually the last two to make the 53 man roster will have to have their wages taken into consideration. A good rule of thumb here would be to deduce at least $2 million to cover these things. So, $16.5 million + $9.5 million – $2 million = $24 million.

So, Addicts, knowing what you know now, how do you think Pioli should approach the situation? How much money should Bowe be offered in a new contract, and how much should be counted against this season’s cap specifically? Keep in mind unused cap can be rolled over into next season, and we may have great use for it then, too *cough*QB*cough*.

For many of you reading this, the prospect of taking a job or traveling for an extended period of time far from Chiefs nation mid-season is likely terrifying.

Fear not.

As an experienced expat fan, I am here to tell you that in the 21^st century it is not only easy to keep up with your team, but that the process of being a remote fan can be uniquely enriching. If it looks like you will be out of country for part or all of this season, here are some guidelines to staying in touch with the red and gold.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

1.) Pick your viewing locations with extreme discretion.

Chances are that if you are somewhere in Central America or Western Europe, there will be cable or satellite packages available that will get you most or all NFL games. But, if there’s no cheap way to pipe Arrowhead into your TV, you are likely going to have to find a place outside of your home away from home to watch the game. While there are inevitably plenty of places where games can be watched, finding a nice fit between you and your venue can be tricky. Basically, here are your options:

Sports Bars/Pubs

Unless you are in a remote village somewhere, chances are you are going to be somewhere near a pub that invariably hosts tons of expats jonesing for some of their home country sports. But, these places can be very hit-or-miss. In my experience, the most prevalent sports pubs are British-dominated joints where rugby and soccer take precedent over all else. If your NFL game of choice clashes with any major European sporting event, you are going to be out of luck. Even if it doesn’t, you will likely have to repeatedly explain to obnoxious rugby fans why “American footballers” wear “crash helmets,” why there are numbers painted on the “pitch” and why the “trainers” aren’t wearing fitted shirts and Prada glasses miming outrage on the side of the field, but are instead decked out in poorly fitting athletic gear mumbling stoically into headsets.

Casinos

If you are in a country that allows gambling, you will probably be able to find the game on at your nearest casino, however, again, these places don’t always provide the best atmosphere. I watched Super Bowl XLII at a mafia-run casino in St. Petersburg, Russia and it was actually a memorable, if odd, good time. Due to the time difference, it was a 3 a.m. kickoff and the casino bar was full of Giants fans that had been loitering around drinking since the early evening. It was a good mix of displaced compatriots but I lost all of my beer money after spending halftime at the roulette tables.

Embassy People

If all else fails, befriend some civil servants working (in theory) to serve your interests in your country of residence. If not the diplomats themselves, the marines guarding the embassies almost always have the hookup for American sports channels in their quarters. Note: This will also expose you to AFN, the Armed Forces Network, a channel thrown together by the Pentagon to bring U.S. TV to American troops, primarily those serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. AFN can be its own sort of absurd treat, because, instead of normal commercials, the breaks in the game are filled with comical public service announcements urging grunts not to traffic drugs, pillage the homes of locals, sniff paint, or shake their babies when home on leave.

NFL Game Pass

If for whatever reason these options don’t shake out, there is always NFL Game Pass (A.K.A. the best thing that ever happened to me). For $250, you basically get every NFL game live and on demand with DVR controls. It even throws in the NFL Network and games from the past two seasons, and has a “condensed viewing” setting that skips over all of the empty time in a game, meaning you can breeze through a typical match in about an hour. Plus, if the time difference is inhospitable, you can always watch the game after the fact with the commercials already removed. Best of all — no box. It’s all over the internet, meaning you can log in to your account wherever you have a strong internet connection and/or a big screen. Also, even if your internet is a bit weak or inconsistent, it automatically increases and decreases the resolution to suit your connection. At its strongest, it puts out pretty good HD.

Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

2.) Try to start a Chiefs fan club in your country.

Because, why not? One of the nice things about being far away from Chiefs Nation is that it makes it much easier to be the biggest fans around. Trying to get KC fans together can be a great way to meet people and allows you to more easily overpower fans of less awesome sports in the pubs.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

3.) Convert foreigners to the magic of football.

This is in some ways tied to #2, but actually one of the most rewarding things about being a fan abroad is the ability to proselytize and convert infidels. Over the past few years, I have gotten dozens of non-Americans to watch football, and even created another KC superfan – a German dude who now never misses a Chiefs game, despite the fact the games often come on at 1 a.m. or later Monday morning local time. In the same ways that people talk about parenting being magical, being someone’s gateway to the sport can be a lot of fun. All they know about it is what you tell them. They are like piles of wet clay. You can mold them to love who you love and hate who you hate. Due to my efforts, the Red Army is growing internationally and will soon sweep the world (please do not use this quote out of context).

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

4.) Being an expat fan further engrains your fandom into your identity.

Having lived out of the U.S. for most of the last seven years, my ties to the Chiefs have actually grown, to a large degree because it keeps me feeling American. When you are separated from your native culture for a long time, you realize how much it means to be a true fan, to be a part of a larger society. In order to keep my hold of my tomahawk roots, I have become the designated Chiefs Superfan for the ESPN Football Today podcast (the best NFL show around, btw) and write this column because doing so makes me feel like I always have one foot planted firmly in my homeland.

This week, I went back to watching the Chiefs’ 2011 game tape. While I had been primarily focused on losses to examine areas the Chiefs needed to improve, I had been saving one particular game as a snack somewhere down the road.

Beating the undefeated Packers was great. Stuffing the Donkeys to force them to enter the playoffs on a three-game losing streak made me happy. But, nothing could compare to the emotions I felt when watching our team rise from the grave in Week 8 on Monday Night Football to take the division lead against the San Diego Chargers.

Triumphant Zombie Chiefs they were. It was the exact midpoint of the season and it looked like the Chiefs were about to shake off their crap injury luck and humiliating start and go back to being the AFC Champs that they were.

For starters, what made the game great was that it was one of the rare times that it was absolutely clear that all Chiefs fans believed. Arrowhead has always been one of the loudest, most inhospitable places to play for visiting teams, but our fans took it to a new level that night. Even watching it on TV from tens of thousands of miles away, I could see the difference. After playing like the worst team in the sport for the first two and a half games of the season, the Chiefs had brought themselves to a place where they had to play a game against a rival on national television at home for the division lead. On Halloween. There is simply no better setup than that.

I also had forgotten previously just how good the Chiefs-Chargers rivalry is. Of course, I personally despise the Raiders and even the Broncos much more vehemently, but that comes mostly out of the irrational, non-competitive parts of my brain. Now, with a hall-o-fame QB at the helm in Denver, all the focus has been on them and the race to beat them out for the 2012 title. But, in all that talk, it is forgotten that the Chiefs and the Chargers have together won seven of the last nine division championships. That means that Oakland and Denver together have shared just 22 percent of the division titles over the last nine years. It’s anyone’s guess how strong the Chargers will be this year, but one thing is clear: for the last decade, KC and SD have owned the title.

Unfortunately, although KC had achieved an impressive three-game winning streak to get them to that game, that place in time, the offense indeed did play most of the game like the undead. The Chargers far outgained the Chiefs, and the difference in the game came down to capitalizing on San Diego mistakes. Still, there was some magic in the air in Arrowhead on Halloween. Dark magic.

First off, Tamba Hali didn’t just play like a man possessed. He was a man possessed. Whatever evil spirit took hold of him was just toying with the Chargers’ offensive tackles all game. He forced more than half a dozen penalties, had two sacks, a timely forced fumble, and overall terrorized the bejesus out of San Diego blockers.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Cassel hit some really pretty passes.

Despite all of that, the Chiefs played a really poor middle part of the game. A signature of the Todd Haley era, the offense constantly struggled to get plays and substitutions in on time. This led to a comedy of errors at the end of the first half, in which the Chargers were on the run but KC was just far too discombobulated to do anything right. Eventually, everyone just scratched their heads and kicked a field goal. By the end of the game, the color commentators were repeatedly using the phrase “Poor Matt Cassel” as our beleaguered QB was having to basically organize the bloody mess himself.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Although I didn’t know this when I watched the game live, when McGraw went out down with an injury and Donald Washington went in to replace him, this spelled doom for the Chiefs. This time around, I knew automatically that this would be the turning point. Sure enough, San Diego came from 10 points behind to tie the Chiefs in the second half. After being totally ineffective in the passing game in the first half, once there was only one competent Chiefs safety on the field, SD hit big play after big play to drag themselves back into the game.

The game was also largely a microcosm of Jonathan Baldwin’s rookie year. He hauled in the catch of his NFL career (thus far) — a beautiful deep pass for a TD — but he also committed several mental errors. He dropped two balls, both of which hit him in the hands, and the second one bounced off of his breadbasket and into the arms of a San Diego defender for an interception. It was a Jekyll and Hyde game for what has so far been a Jekyll and Hyde receiver.

As much as Hali was playing out of his mind, when the Chargers were able to neutralize his pass rush (usually through unnoticed penalties), Rivers was as comfortable as if he had returned to his mother’s womb. Houston had not yet arrived to the scene.

And, while I am all for getting Houston to develop and mature into a legit pass-rushing threat, I am still not convinced that is what he is just yet. Three of his 5.5 sacks in 2011 came against the Bears – a bad quarterback behind a bad offensive line (seriously, Caleb Hanie finished with a worse 2011 passer rating than Tyler Palko).

This brings me to my next disturbing realization while watching this game. Like our match against the Packers, in this game, San Diego was playing like absolute dogcrap 80 percent of the time. They had nine penalties in the first half, they turned over the ball four times and missed an easy field goal. Given all of that, the Chiefs should have beaten them by 20. Instead, we beat them by a field goal in overtime.

In part, this is just how the Chiefs play. We keep every game close and work to go the extra mile by the end of the game. But that won’t cut it in the playoffs. Playoff teams beat their opponents into submission when they have the chance and are able to run their offense like a machine. While I have no doubt the Chiefs will be able to secure the division title again in 2012, this roster still has yet to prove that it can be dominant.

That is why I think it is important to remember the Zombie Chiefs and remember where we are coming from. We are not just coming off of an off year that was plagued with injures. No. We were a dead team that clawed its way back into the division race as ugly as it was, and played with every ounce of its potential to come within a single blocked field goal of the postseason again.

We need to remember that hunger of a zombie team that had been written off by the league. We need to remember what it was like to be the fans of a team standing behind the walls of the Alamo on Halloween, defending its title like champs when everyone expected it to fold. I know there has been a lot of gloating and optimism among myself and others on this site for all of the shrewd offseason additions and the swift recovery of our wounded stars. But, if we are going to take this team’s destiny to its full potential, we need to remember where we came from.

The 2012 season for me is just a continuation of our rise from the grave. The media can talk about Peyton Manning all they want. Tamba will be feeding on his brain and JC will be dancing in his end zone before long. To steal a motto from the Greyjoys, “What is dead can never die.” Long live the Zombie Chiefs!

It’s that time of year – the time of year when there’s not really much to talk about in football, but we’re all the more starved for content about it. This is the time of year when sports commentators, myself included, spout mostly hypothetical nonsense and rehash the same offseason moves over and over.

Lucky for the Chiefs, there are no big celebrity players on our squad, but that doesn’t mean we are not going to be bombarded by “news” pieces about Tebow’s new pair of shoes or Tony Romo’s Caribbean vacation. Speaking for myself, I’m also too young to care about the Hall of Fame and too much of a cynic to care much about NFL players’ personal charities and community outreach. They all do it, it’s all heart-warming and we never really find out if any actually does any good. Part of the quid pro quo between sports reporters and players is that the reporters will hype players’ charities in the offseason and whenever else possible, and those players give good anonymous trash talk about their fellow players and coaches (especially if the target is Mark Sanchez).

So, although the fact that you are reading this means that you, like me, are still going to be inhaling ever bit of Chiefs news this offseason regardless of how useless it is, I’m going to give you a primer for articles to avoid (including those written by me).

These are the top stories you’ll be plenty sick of by the time real football starts up again.

1.) Any story with a headline ending in a question mark.

As a journalist by trade, this has always been one of my pet peeves. Generally, any headline ending in a question mark is shorthand for “filler article.” If the central thesis of the piece is so flimsy to scrutiny that you can’t even write it without a typographic shrug, then why are you writing it in the first place?

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

2.) Can Matt Cassel take this team to greatness?

Will it rain October 13, 2017? No one knows. This, of course, is why the question never goes away. Every Chiefs fan knows the score. Cassel has given us one and a half bad seasons, one good season and performed well for another team that was probably the best in the league at the time. The overall roster around Cassel is better this year. Everyone knows this is Cassel’s make or break season in KC.

But, Cassel is also well-respected in the locker room, which means that unless he undergoes a major personality change or a sudden and inexplicable drop in his athletic ability this summer, we are going to hear nothing but positive reviews about him coming out of Arrowhead. Therefore, we will have no more real evidence in this discussion until preseason begins in August. Lyle put together a great historical comparison of Cassel to other quarterbacks in similar situations, which makes the most positive fact-based case I’ve seen for Cassel thus far. But, even then, it relies on how other players performed. Every player is different. And, given how the goings-on at Arrowhead are more guarded than nuclear secrets, my bet is we will learn exactly zilch about Cassel’s ability in the next 16 weeks.

3.) Will Charles and Moeaki bounce back from injuries?

Will it rain October 14, 2017? This is also a subject on which we are likely to hear nothing but manically positive news until the preseason begins (which they likely won’t play in anyway). Coaches, agents and the players themselves are never going to come out and say, “Yeah, I’m really behind schedule on my recovery,” or “Yeah, I definitely don’t have professional speed anymore.”

There are only three things we need concern ourselves with on this subject – 1.) Neither have shown lasting or degrading effects from previous injuries 2.) Because they were injured so early last year, they are well within the recovery times for ACL tears to be able to come back full strength by opening day and 3.) This time around at least, we have the depth at their positions to overcome their absence.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

4.) Will Dontari Poe live up to his physical potential?

Ask me in three years. Seriously. This guy is a major project, and unless he learns his position in record time and stuns the pants off the coaches, he will probably be a rotational player throughout the 2012 season. As much as we have all whined about the success rate of Chiefs first-round DTs, Glenn Dorsey has quietly developed into a top run stuffer and Tyson Jackson has shown the willingness to trim his salary down to something more accurately representing his production. Thanks to the CBA, Poe’s contract won’t kill us at least, and if he is among the 50 percent of first-round-picks that bust, we will march on.

There is only one thing we can be certain about with Dontari Poe – we won’t know how good he is this year, and probably not next year either. Even if he has a great season, he’ll likely regress or at least face a sophomore slump.

Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

5.) Will Bowe get extended?

This is the only one of the five above that I think is actually a legitimate discussion to be had. If Bowe wants Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson money, do we keep him? We’re paying him less than $10 million this year with the franchise tag, but if he wants a long-term deal with an annual salary in the teens, then the decision is less obvious. At the same time, don’t expect this to get done until midway through the season at the earliest. The two biggest factors in whether or not Bowe gets a deal are going to be the offense’s overall production with or without him, and the development of Jonathan Baldwin. If Baldwin has a breakout season and shows the ability of being a #1 receiver (which I think is highly unlikely, this season anyway) then I bet Pioli allows Bowe to test the market. If the Chiefs are tearing up the league and appear playoff-bound halfway through the year, the front office might feel like it makes sense to try and lock up Bowe early, because his value will only increase once he’s making clutch catches in post-season games.

Still, with so many variables and the fact that Bowe has already said that he will not hold out through training camp, this question is both unanswerable and somewhat irrelevant at this point. However, that does not mean we won’t be hearing about it. We are going to hear a lot about Bowe and the contract negotiations in the coming months but I’ll eat a shoe if they actually sign anything before the season begins. Mark my words.

So, that’s what I anticipate I’ll be sick of hearing about by the time we actually see some football played. Am I missing anything?

Can anyone out there remember an offseason like this? There have been more Earth-shattering developments this week than in the last three offseasons combined.

Obviously the news that affects the Chiefs the most is future Hall-of-Famer Peyton Manning signing with the Broncos. This is probably foolish, but I can’t help it – I am honestly pumped about the move. Before the signing, the writing was on the wall that this was going to be the Chiefs’ year in the division.

That writing is still there.

Matt Williamson from Scouts Inc. – the NFL pundit I most respect – still has the Chiefs as the team to beat in the AFC West and I agree. The fact that the Chiefs will now have stiff competition from the Donkeys only gets me fired up more. As far as I’m concerned, the Chiefs were a blocked field goal away from winning the division without their stars last year, and we shut down the default division winners in the last game of the season. This division is ours, and I am happy to accept all challengers.

Step right up, Peyton, let’s see what you got.

In the movie of Manning’s life, this season may very well be the climax – he’s been cut by his team of 12 years, he’s down and out and trying to climb back to greatness. I love the idea that in this movie, the less-showy, but physical and gritty Chiefs are the bad guys. We will take away his chance for a valiant career comeback because it is OURS.

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

All cockiness aside, from this point on, all of the Chiefs’ personnel focus has to be on neutralizing Manning, and not Greg Williams-style. With about $15 million left under the cap, the Chiefs have enough space to offer extensions to a few important players and sign their draft picks plus a few low-level free agent pickups for depth and training camp bodies.

That means that the only major acquisition the Chiefs are going to be able to make this year is their first-round pick. Therefore, it has to be an anti-Manning.

While I’m sympathetic to Paddy’s argument for trading back to build up draft ammunition and flexibility next year for a possible trade-up, I think this year is critical and the opportunity to land possibly one of the top 10 best young players of 2012 shouldn’t be squandered willy-nilly. It is also unclear whether there would be interest in trading into the Chiefs’ spot. There may be, but we can’t count on it, and we need to plan to pick someone at #11 going into April.

That is why I think it would be a mistake to take G David DeCastro. Under normal circumstances, picking DeCastro is exactly the type of conservative, forward-looking move that I would love. I desperately wanted the Chiefs to grab Gabe Carimi last year, and I continue to believe that the O-line needs to be the foundation of team’s offense. However, DeCastro is rated so highly exactly because he is so safe. Most scouts consider him to be NFL-ready, and if the Chiefs had an emergency need at guard, picking him would make a lot of sense. But there will be other guards available with the same amount of raw upside as DeCastro in later rounds that are simply a bit rougher and will require some coaching up. Plus, our needs along the interior O-line are not that great. Love him or hate him, Ryan Lilja, the weakest link, is just mediocre. With solid tackles and run-blocking TEs, we will be able to bounce runs to the outside with ease. In short yardage, Hillis will always able to give us something, even if the left guard isn’t steamrolling forward.

The point is, while DeCastro would be a great addition, he won’t be a game-changer for the Chiefs – especially against Peyton Franken-neck Manning. The Chiefs could have the best running game in the league (again) behind an O-line replete with Hall-of-Famers (again) and still not be able to keep Manning from pulling out a clutch win in the fourth quarter or simply out gunning Cassel in a shootout – a situation that is not difficult to imagine. For reference, look up the puntless 2003 Wild Card game between KC and Indy. SPOILER ALERT, we lost.

ILB Luke Kuechly would also be a safe pick at a position of need. But with Belcher and Brandon Siler coming back next year, I think the Chiefs are above average there too – Belcher is an reasonably reliable overachiever and we don’t even know what we have in Siler yet. Kuechly is also known for his speed and awareness, able to chase down runners coming out of the backfield. He is not known as a great pass-rusher, therefore, he too is not the kind of guy who I think would be a game changer for us.

That leaves Dontari Poe, ranked the 10^th best talent overall by Scouts Inc., and the best DT by nearly all evaluators. As AA commenters have pointed out, Poe has a fairly high bust factor for a guy with his immense physical skills. But, if there was ever a time that the Chiefs need to be bold and take a chance on a guy that could be special, it’s now. Peyton-freaking-Manning just entered our division, and he’s likely to be here for a few years. And oh, by the way, there’s this other guy named Philip Rivers. He plays for a team the Chiefs haven’t swept in the division in a decade.

Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Poe is also knocked for not being a prototypical nose tackle – especially for Romeo Crennel’s preferred block-eating scheme. But the fact is that the guy has the physical potential to be a penetrating Jay Ratliff/Haloti Ngata type. He’s not short and stout like Vince Wilfork – the ideal creature for Crennel’s scheme – but guys in the mold of Wilfork are more rare than elite quarterbacks.

The Chiefs could rotate him with Amon Gordon, a bland but valuable run stuffer, and allow Poe to try and blow up the inside protection on passing downs. Jerrel Powe, the D-line’s invisible man, may develop enough this offseason to provide good depth as well. Depending on how Poe does throughout the year, the Chiefs could gradually increase his responsibilities and playing time.

Crennel appears to also be considering DT Michael Bockers, who could contribute as a 3-4 DE in the place of either Glenn Dorsey or Tyson Jackson – two expensive underachievers I wouldn’t mind discarding.

The main idea though, is simply adding a card to our hand that will counteract the arrival of perhaps the best QB who has ever lived. Both DeCastro and Kuechly will probably be fine football players. But to draft either of them would be declining to throw a punch in what is going to be the most interesting division battle the AFC West has seen in years.

Over the past several weeks, we’ve talked a lot about it without coming out and saying it: this year’s offseason will be very difficult to screw up. And that is a comforting thought for long-flummoxed Chiefs fans.

So far, the Chiefs have been stuck with a series of no-brainer moves. They extended Tamba Hali to a long-term deal during the season; Jamaal was locked up the year before. They picked up a few cheap depth guys who had fallen off the backs of trucks.

Then came their first real choice. Re-sign Brandon Carr or bring in Stanford Routt? Routt was cheaper, and apparently better at man coverage, which Crennel ran to crushing success in his three games has HC. Routt signed. Done.

Dwayne Bowe remained the last big KC free agent to re-sign, but contract negotiations had long been drawn out. The franchise tag number for 2012 for wide receivers was $9.4 million – not far north of what the average yearly salary would be for him in an extended deal. Tagged him. Done.

Last year, we were one game behind the division winner. In my opinion, the Chiefs are the favorites to win the division just by standing still. No matter whom they draft or sign, their biggest acquisitions in 2012 will be Charles, Moeaki and Berry back from injury.

However, the Chiefs don’t have to sit still this time. Not only do they have about $28 million in cap room (factoring in the Bowe deal), but they are picking 11^th in the draft, which is more and more looking to be the 1^st-round sweet spot for falling talent.

Now, I know there are millions of mock drafts out there, but looking at the latest mocks from CBS Sports, NFL.com, and the Bleacher Report, I formed what is a kind of consensus of the latest thinking. Again, it reveals that the Chiefs cannot lose.

In none of the 10 mock drafts I used for my sample was the beastly G David DeCastro picked, nor was intimidating linebacker Luke Kuechly. In 8/10, Jonathan Martin, who is considered to be the most athletic OT in the draft, was still available; in 5/10 OT Reily Reiff was there. Not only was he a beast in college, but Pioli has strong ties to his college coach Kirk Ferentz, and he will know this player in and out.

Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly runs the 40 yard dash during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

In 8/10, DT/NT Dontari Poe, the surprise physical monster of the Combine, was available for the Chiefs. And, although he’s tall for a nose tackle, he has the raw athleticism to be a good one. A 346-lbs man that can run a 4.98 40 is a scary creation.

In 6/10, QB Ryan Tannehill is still available – the consensus third best QB in the draft. This would also present an interesting choice for the Chiefs. On one hand, if the teams behind them are still nervous about their ability to pick up a top QB, the Chiefs could offer a reasonable deal to teams unable or unwilling to spend to trade into the top-10, but might be willing to part with a 3^rd-rounder or 2^nd-rounder next year to move up a few spots to 11 for Tannehill. The Jets are a few spots back and have talked a lot about bringing in significant competition for Sanchez.

Directly behind the Chiefs are the Seahawks and Cardinals who have biting QB needs and will be competing with each other to get to Tannehill first if they can’t bring in a top talent in free agency.

The Chiefs could also take him, as crazy as that sounds and give Matt Cassel REAL competition. Given Tannehill’s draft status and the fact that he is much younger than Cassel, he would obviously have the upper hand, but the Chiefs could afford to transition into him as the next season or two went on. In the end, such a move might get Cassel back to the position he was naturally suited for back in 2008 – as the league’s best backup QB.

Now, I’ve already talked about a wide variety of options for the Chiefs when it comes to free agency, but the rundown is this: we can pick whoever we want. With our cap room, there are little to no restrictions on who we take aboard. With Drew Brees franchised by the Saints, the best Guard in football, Carl Nicks, is now available. He is #1 target. Solid NFL-proven guys like NT Paul Soliai are also floating out there and there are plenty of guys able to fill out depth and provide competition on the O-line and at inside LB.

The cherry on top is that the Chiefs could afford several of those moves and still afford the jewel of free agency who is already available – Peyton Manning.

Feb 4, 2012; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning and his father Archie Manning attend the direct TV celebrity beach bowl at Victory Field. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

When it was looking like the Chiefs would have to trade for him I was against it. But given how the Chiefs have only a few big needs and the ability to fill all the other holes with quality in the draft and free agency, I agree with Crennel that KC would be “crazy” not to make a run at the guy. If he wants big-time guaranteed money as a 36-year-old with an 80-year-old’s neck, then I won’t kill the Chiefs for letting someone else take that leap. After all, the Chiefs are practically a lock to win the division this year anyway. But, this is also the one offseason where the mix of meager needs and expansive resources allow for luxurious moves like bringing in an aging quarterback who might just be the best who ever lived. Price tag be damned.

Overall, unless Pioli dumps the Chiefs extra cap cash and draft picks into a ditch and burns them, the Chiefs are set. While his tenure has overall been shaky, and Hunt loves his money like none other, I think the writing is on the wall that this is the Chiefs year and they will pull the necessary triggers.

And that means I am going to tell you to do something that, as a Chiefs fan, goes against every instinct you have. Don’t worry.

If the Chiefs somehow miss out on Manning, don’t worry. That’s money that will go to fixing the lines and steamrolling the division in other ways. Trent Richardson doesn’t slip down to us? Who cares? We’ll still have a smorgasbord of other options in need areas on the team. It’s been smooth sailing so far, and barring a Pioli nervous breakdown or a nuclear war between here and next winter, the Chiefs are set for a deep run into the playoffs. Quoth Rex Ryan, “Guaranteed.”

Well, Chiefs fans, today is Valentine’s Day, and that means only one thing: margaritas.

However, while it might be our tradition to spend every Valentine’s Night at a Mexican restaurant (the tacky-red-paper-hearts-per-person quotient is much lower), I realize everyone approaches this fake holiday in his or her own special way. Even back in third grade—which, frankly, is where the celebration of this day should begin and end—when societal norms and, more specifically, Mrs. Brockmeyer demanded that we give paper valentines to everyone in class, we had to decide which valentines best represented us, as well as which of our secret crushes would receive the more risqué—and risky—messages.*

*Was “You rock, Valentine!” coming on way too strong?

Just as a set of perforated Transformers valentines (“Let’s roll, Valentine! You’re a Mega Friend!”) perfectly represented who I was back in 1984, today’s Kansas City Chiefs fans need valentines that speak to us, that capture the angst and occasional joy of this tumultuous relationship in which we’ve entangled ourselves. And among all the boxes of Harry Potter, Shrek, and Smurfs valentines at the local CVS, I couldn’t find any. So—you can guess what’s coming next—I had no choice but to make a few of my own.

Feel free to print, perforate, and share as you wish. Perhaps—just like the Indianapolis Colts on draft day—you’ll get lucky.

 —————————————————————

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

——————————————————————————————————————————

—————————————————————

—————————————————————

Yes, I know the Patriots lost, but if the Chiefs truly are going to follow the Patriots Way, then there was a lot of positive to take from New England’s performance last Sunday.

It’s no secret to anyone that the success from the Patriots offense has come from their ability to scheme things brilliantly and create massive matchup problems for opposing defenses. They do this through flexible personnel groupings and versatile players in ways that I think KC can emulate.

In the end, the biggest difference of the night was the absence of Rob Gronkowski. Sure, he was there, but the second-year tight end, who was good for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns during the regular season, was obviously a step or two slower with an injured ankle. Aaron Hernandez was New England’s best weapon of the night with 8 catches and a touchdown.

The good news is that the Chiefs’ Gronkowski is coming back this year. Moeaki and Gronkowski had very similar stats in their rookie years (although Gronk pulled down more TDs), and their skills are comparable. Both guys are great route runners, have big, reliable hands and are also good blockers. I think Moeaki is going to have a colossal season in 2012. The guy the Chiefs don’t have is a Hernandez type. Hernandez is not as physical, but is faster and has the reach to be a threat along the sidelines. Even while covered by Michael Boley, the Giant’s best cover linebacker, Hernandez was about to consistently move the chains for them.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

I think the Chiefs were hoping Leonard Pope could be that guy, unfortunately he just doesn’t have the speed or football smarts to make it happen. Especially given that he was part of Haley’s entourage that was brought over from Arizona, I think his days in red are numbered.

I definitely think the Chiefs should go for a mid-round TE in this year’s draft. Crock brilliantly broke down the class this year, and I think a guy like Orson Charles or Ladarius Green should be on the KC’s draft board. We need a guy who may not be the best pass blocker, but who causes opposing defenses to scratch their head about what personnel they send out on the field. With a running game as prolific as we will have once Jamaal Charles is back, getting our opponents to think pass when we have two TEs on the field will be a very, very good thing for us.

Another thing that the Patriots whipped out at times this year was creative use of their rookie tackle, Nate Solder. Against the Chiefs, they played Solder at tight end and fullback numerous times to punishing success. BenJarvus Green-Ellis had his second best game of the year on just 20 carries. How many of you out there would like to see David DeCastro or Jonathan Martin mowing down the Raider’s linebacking corps ahead of Jamaal? I would.

Speaking of Green-Ellis, he’s a free agent this year and there’s talk that the Pats aren’t likely take him back. At 26, he could be a long-term third-down running back for the Chiefs. Like Charles, he’s got some elusiveness but he’s also got about 20 lbs on Jamaal, and is able to fight for short yardage a bit better than him.

Another free agent that has been key to the Patriots’ success is Wes Welker. While he usually doesn’t produce flashy big-gainers (his longest catch of 2010 was for 35 yards), he is unstoppable as a guy who catches the ball for 4 yards and gets 3 more after the catch every single time. He had an amazing 77 catches for first downs in 2011. When the Chiefs drafted Dexter McCluster, I think they intended him to grow into Welker’s role, but that hasn’t exactly happened. McCluster is more of a Danny Woodhead guy – the little speedster that can do the most damage coming out of the backfield in a variety of ways. I know you’ve heard me criticize a lot of the signings Pioli has made for targeting older dudes, but this is a signing that I think would make sense for the Chiefs.

With Welker and two pass-threat TEs there is a lot more that the Chiefs could do in the short and mid-range passing game. There’s a reason why Matt Cassel and Tom Brady don’t chuck it down the field very often – they’re not very good at it. When Cassel has short-range options (and time to throw), he has been very efficient. Assuming Welker only has a few productive years left, the Chiefs won’t be risking much by throwing some money at him – God forbid he take a roster spot for Jerheme Urban.

Now, you might say that taking on Welker would automatically alter the Chiefs’ offensive philosophy in ways they aren’t built to handle – their current passing game is built to feature two large, down-field WRs in Dwayne Bowe and Jonathan Baldwin – but I think this gets to one of the Chiefs’ biggest weaknesses in 2011. The way the Chiefs are currently assembled, their gameplan is extremely fragile. If either Bowe or Charles get taken out of the game – due to injury or effective defense – their hands are tied. When both are down, KC is absolutely screwed.

Also, at 31, I think Welker is at the point in his career where Belichick classically lets him move on. In his almost pathological fixation on hoarding resources for the future, the man in the hoodie always lets his stars walk when they become truly expensive in their thirties (Brady being the obvious exception). Meanwhile, the Chiefs have somewhere between $20-27 million in cap space, plus the carry-over from last season. Therefore, the Chiefs could potentially spend around 40 percent more on players this season.

The franchise tag numbers for wide receivers and cornerbacks are $9.4 million and $10.6 million, respectively. Meaning that to franchise either Bowe or Carr and sign the other to a long-term deal, the Chiefs will likely end up spending somewhere in the neighborhood of $17 million for the 2012 season. That leaves at least $23 million to play with.

The Chiefs’ 2012 draft picks won’t cost them more than about $10 million total for the season, so with (again, at least) $13 million left in the bank, the Chiefs can afford luxury experiments like Wes Welker.

If we’re going to go Patriots, we might as well do it right.

So, that happened. Another NFL season (and postseason) has come and gone. Forgive my lack of enthusiasm as I watched the New York Giants win the Super Bowl for the fourth time in my lifetime, and the New England Patriots lose it for the fourth time (to go along with their three championships). In fact, in the 38 Super Bowls I have lived through (not that I really remember Super Bowls IX through, oh, XV or XVI), 27 different teams have participated. Not one of them has been the Kansas City Chiefs—their Super Bowl appearances live in other people’s memories.

But the good news, of course, is that as soon as Tom Brady’s last “Hail Myra” pass landed incomplete in the end zone and Super Bowl XLVI officially came to an end, the Chiefs were immediately back in contention. All eyes, and odds, are now focused on 2012-13, and the earliest probabilities are already in. The MGM Grand Las Vegas and at least one leading gaming site have opened betting season with the Chiefs as 50-1 shots to win Super Bowl XLVII, which is as good or better than 13 other teams. Not quite as favorable as the 40-1 odds they were given a year ago, but much better than the one-in-100 chance set before the Chiefs’ 2010 AFC West Championship season.

In other words, the odds-makers don’t really know what they’re doing, at least at this stage—out of last year’s top five preseason favorites, three didn’t even make the playoffs. But for fans, it’s amusing to see just how favorably (or not) our team’s prospects are marked in the books of various distinguished sports-betting establishments, and ask ourselves, “What if…?”

Last year at this time, I made a list of the XLVI reasons the Chiefs could win it all. A number of those “reasons” are now no longer with the team or else tore up their knees within the first few weeks of the season. So I’ve learned my lesson—and I’m not about to try to come up with XLVII reasons now. After all, so many things can happen: the most important players can get hurt, the coach can go crazy, the GM can go crazier…I mean, what are the odds?

Ah. Good question. Why don’t we find out?

(more…)

The 2011 season turned the entire AFC West on its head, multiple times. All four teams, which have had fairly stable identities over the past several decades, went schizo – and those changes may be permanent.

In Oakland, the King is dead. Long live the King.

When that eccentric 82-year-old lunatic died this year, with him died the personality of the franchise that had persisted from its 1970s dominance to its 2000s irrelevance. It was a franchise governed by gut decisions, obsession with raw athletic ability and disregard for red flags in personal conduct. If you were an axe murderer with a sub-4.3 40, you would never be unemployed in Oakland.

If you haven’t read Mike Silver’s controversial article about Mark Davis yet, do it. Silver has taken a lot of flack and hate for it, but much like Kent Babb’s investigation into the Arrowhead Gestapo-state, it is very well researched and smells like the truth. Nearly all of the anger towards the column came from zealously loyal Raiders fans, who, let’s face it, are psychopaths.

In the column, Silver makes the case essentially that Mark Davis, who appears to still get his Prince Valiant hair cut by an protective aunt of sorts, essentially pulled the plug on the Hue Jackson regime primarily because Jackson was a guy with a strong personality who had seen him repeatedly humiliated by his reptilian father.

Another former Raiders coach said that he “saw [Al Davis] tell Mark to ‘shut the [expletive] up’ all the time. It was a regular occurrence. He treated him like his opinion didn’t matter.”

With Al Davis gone, and Reggie McKenzie in, Oakland will have something resembling an NFL front office for the first time in Raiders’ history. It appears that Mark Davis, the gentle giant, will cede most real authority to McKenzie, who was brought up through the Packers’ methodical organization. This means – gasp – long-term planning and conservative personnel moves. This could be trouble for the strategic balance in the division. But it won’t matter this year, since the Raiders will use their first draft pick in the fifth round. It won’t matter much next year, when the Raiders will also be missing a second-round pick, plus whatever else they manage to trade off during this offseason. Still, it does mean that over the long term, this is going to become a very different team than it has been historically.

In Denver, the King is born, although it’s not quite clear if he is the Messiah or just a baby found in the Broncos’ stables.

One day, we will know what John Elway really thinks of Tim Tebow. I, for one, think that a legendary passer like Elway must think this kid has set the game back for decades with his generally awful vision and throwing, but is somehow more beloved already than he, and that must drive him crazy. Right now, the (sexless) Tebow-Bronco marriage is unavoidable and the Broncos are going to do everything they can to surround him with complementary talent. It also means they are going work to become the best defense and the best running attack in the league – a consistent problem for the Chiefs’ inconsistent offense and so-so run defense. The years of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall seem like ancient history already.

In San Diego, the King got his stay of execution, but is still probably on death row.

I honestly don’t know what it is going to take to get A. J. Smith and Norv Turner fired, but I bet this is the year we see it happen.

Smith and Turner have to get aggressive this offseason to save their jobs, and it truly is (deep in the) playoffs or bust for them. One of the least talked about aspects of the Chargers this past year is that they have very quietly become a heavy running team with Ryan Matthews averaging 77. 9 yards per game – just behind Willis McGahee at 12^th in the league in that category. With Philip Rivers coming off the worst season of his career, and the coaching staff playing for their jobs, don’t be surprised if they continue to move in this direction. Against teams like the Chiefs in particular who have stout defensive backs, expect the Bolts to run early and often. And if they fall short again, the entire team is likely to be purged from the top of the front office to the lowest position coaches.

So, three years into the Scott Pioli Chiefs, who are we?

There will obviously be some changes with Haley gone and Crennel in the big chair, but those will be changes in tone most of all. The offensive coordinating hire will indicate a lot, but that’s only part of the story.

Watching the Chiefs this year I got the feeling that I was watching an identity emerge in the team. After losing key guys on both sides of the ball and being embarrassed to start the season, not only did the Chiefs never give up, but they continued to play like a team that was defending its division championship. After two blowout losses, the team circled the wagons and began its climb back into contention.

Why? Generally when a team deals with adversity the way this one did, it’s because the team, even if they are aware they are playing in a lost season, fights with heart to keep their head coach’s job. That apparently was not the case this year. The other reason teams are able to pull through is usually because they are full of veteran leaders who have seen the highs and lows before and are able to guide and motivate the rest of the players not to give up. That was also not the case with our team.

While there were clearly players in each unit that had been around the block, none of them are Ray Lewis out there. Wiegmann holds the middle of the line with the same quiet professionalism as a plumber snaking a toilet. John McGraw appeared to do more or less the same. Thomas Jones was physically assaulting rookies.

Oct 31, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs strong safety Jon McGraw (47) tackles San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews (24) in the second quarter at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

No, I think we saw that same tough, workman-like attitude spread throughout this whole team over the last two years with young players taking the field in clutch situations like they were on a business trip. I once heard someone say that adversity doesn’t forge character, it reveals it; and we learned a lot about the character of the Kansas City Chiefs this year.

By the end of the season, we learned that they are a team that can hold anybody to fewer than 20 points. We learned that they can persevere through the worst quarterbacking and safety-play imaginable. We learned that as an organization, as long as there is an outside chance we can make it to the postseason, that is the only goal.

Through several different themes, we at AA were trying to figure out what the 2011 Chiefs were this year. First, they were the Zombie Chiefs, then the A-Team – a video I think encapsulates our whole season.

In all I think we’ve seen accountability, professionalism and, yes, wiretaps, redefine this team. Some call it the Patriots Way, but I think it’s just some imported New England leadership presiding over a mix of guys that understand the mindset that has been a central feature in the mentality of the Chiefs nation and the Chiefs organization – albeit some aberrances – for decades.

I went to my first game in quite a while this year, and I realized I had forgotten what a stark cultural contrast is cut between Raiders fans and Chiefs fans. Among the Chiefs fans it was work boots and hunting hats — and more than a few sets of overalls. No bling, no costumes, just fans coming to support their team like miners in the shaft.

Many of our stars that have emerged over the past years – Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, Justin Houston – were mid-round picks. Behind them, unheralded lunch pail guys like Andy Studebaker, Jackie Battle and Jovan Belcher have come in and held it together. CHIEFS WILL was a great rebranding move, and it suits this group well.

Because of all of this, tough, excuse-free guys like Matt Cassel are not likely to be replaced in favor of flashy alternatives. Through all of the upheaval since Scott Pioli came in, the greatest acquisition this team has made was an identity.

Sure, that identity was not enough for us to get us in to the playoffs this year, but I strongly believe we have yet to see the best from this group, and I greatly look forward to the workmen Chiefs taking on the saintly Broncos, the desperate Chargers and the suddenly rational Raiders.

2012 is going to be a great year.

We’re now headed into what will be one of the more interesting Chiefs’ offseasons we’ve had in a while.

As we’ve already discussed up and down on this site, the biggest question the Chiefs now face is what to do with the quarterback position. Matt Cassel has not looked like a franchise quarterback and we need a reliable backup 13 months ago.

While the backup market is going to be workable, it is not going to be easy to get a better starter. Another important point is that, while the Chiefs are making strides in certain areas of the team, we still have a lot of holes to fill on the roster and if we go all in toward one of the bigger name players out there, we automatically hurt our ability to improve the rest of the team — possibly for years.

So here are some of the notable options and what they would likely cost us after the jump. (more…)

“Winning isn’t everything—it’s the only thing.”

This legendary sports quote is most often attributed to legendary coach Vince Lombardi,* but rarely is it reprinted in its entirety: “Winning isn’t everything—it’s the only thing I love more than picking up candy wrappers.”

*Speaking of Green Bay, I didn’t get to see much of the games this past weekend, but I’m looking forward to Sunday. What time is Saints-Packers?

In the history of sports and coaching—particularly the rarified domain of big-time professional sports ownership and leadership—there have always been idiosyncratic personalities. That’s not news, and it’s one of the reasons why Kansas City Star reporter Kent Babb’s examination of “Arrowhead Anxiety” was as credible in its concept as it was dreadful in some of its details.

The sidebar—“Gold, greed lead to murder”—is actually unrelated.

Babb’s story was a solid piece of reporting, based on weeks of investigation and reflection and more than 30 interviews (as it should be—I wish I hadn’t been so pleasantly surprised by its thoroughness). For that alone, it deserved to be on the front page. As to whether it deserved to be the front page—for anyone who hasn’t seen the hard copy, Babb’s story (and its accompanying, menacing graphic) occupy about 80 percent of the broadsheet (right)—or to be the only sports story discussed in Kansas City and to make its way to many other markets, I have mixed feelings.

Actually, not mixed at all—I hate that we’re talking about this, because even though football is the undercurrent and the reason we care, actual football-on-the-field is removed from this discussion. I understand it’s interesting that Chiefs executives may seem more preoccupied with the surreptitious routes their employees take to lunch (so as not to be seen fraternizing with one another) than they are with Dwayne Bowe’s pass routes,* but does that mean we should be? Can’t we all just get back to relishing the end of Tebow Time?**

*I stole that clever route comparison from Nick Wright, who spent about four hours—three-and-a-half hours too many—discussing this on his show yesterday.

**And its return next fall, which, I feel, will ultimately be a good thing for the Chiefs (and all of the Denver Broncos’ opponents).

Yes, I’m writing about it right now, and no, I don’t think I’m hypocritical for doing so. Not wanting to talk about something and believing it can’t be ignored are two different things. I’m adding to the hubbub,* but I hope that by talking it out now, we will all see this story fade away sooner.

*Couldn’t decide whether to go with “hubbub” or “hullabaloo.” Hullabaloo? Yeah, I should have used hullabaloo.

Because I don’t have much at all to add—it’s hard to imagine how anyone could—to the comprehensive scrutiny laid down by Big Matt and Lyle yesterday. I appreciate the points made all around. I agree with most of Matt’s observations and roughly 100 percent of Lyle’s conclusions (and in the comments, it sounds like Matt agrees more than disagrees, too). So before I leave it at that, I will share just a couple of my own, none-too-profound reactions to the article and its allegations…

(more…)

I’ve been living in Europe for several years now, and while I haven’t brought myself to becoming a full-fledged soccer fan, I do appreciate that fans of the sport get to watch the game all year. With so many overlapping leagues and looser management rules, there is literally always something to talk about in global soccer, and on any given day when you want to watch a game, all you just have to flip on the tube.

That said, I have a secret love for the NFL offseason – at least this stage of it. By summer, the cold sweats of football withdrawal set in, but the period from the end of the regular season until the weeks following the draft is a few months of cool. There are endless hypothetical conversations to be had, revisionist retrospection on the year past and every team’s fan base is somehow imbued in the optimism that “next year we’ll be better.” Statistically speaking, only about half are right.

To kick off this process I want to start the conversation by looking simply at what we were bad at last year, and the options on the table for fixing them. It’ll be a long time before we have more actual football to breakdown so I’ll be looking at each of these particular issues individually and in detail in the weeks to come. For now, these are my general thoughts, after the jump. (more…)

“I want [my players] to be strong, I want them to be tough, I want them to be physical, I want them to be aggressive, I want them to be tenacious….did I forget anything? Smart? Yes, that should’ve been at the forefront.”

—Romeo Crennel, upon accepting the job as head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs
January 9, 2012

Yep, the Kansas City Chiefs and Romeo Crennel made it official. This interim is over, and yesterday they got together to let the world know: They are in love. For now, at least. Even when you’ve started out as friends, any serious relationship takes work—What’s the give and take? How do we want to raise our family? Who will be our starting quarterback?—and this partnership might take more work than most.

The Chiefs, of course, are at a crucial juncture. Some think one small tweak* could lead them to the Super Bowl. But the possibilities are downright Shakespearean. Will we see tragedy, as we did for too many recent years, or comedy—you know, the good Shakespearean kind that always has a happy ending but for some reason isn’t really funny at all? Or just another comedy of errors?

*Peyton Manning?

Crennel has said all the right things publicly—he is here to win a championship and thinks it can happen and soon—but what is he really thinking?

At times when I feel like I don’t have nearly as much as others to add to this ongoing Chiefs conversation in terms of facts, figures, and analysis (these times include the off-season, the pre-season, the post-season, and, occasionally, the regular season), I opt to have some fun and squeeze my ramblings into rhyme or rap or greeting cards or even Mad Libs.

So here we go: In tribute to Romeo Crennel’s namesake* and with apologies to Bill Shakespeare (or whoever really wrote Romeo & Juliet and those other plays that bear his name) and to all of you, I offer our fair Romeo’s first inner monologue as Chiefs head coach—yes, in iambic pentameter (except, you know, when it’s not)…

*Seriously, Crennel is named after Shakespeare’s Romeo. He even has a sister named Juliet.

(more…)

As the Chiefs begin their head coach search, most analysts seem to point to interim head coach Romeo Crennel as the most likely candidate to get the job. Crennel has obviously been great for this team as a defensive coordinator and the team played well under him in the last three games of the season, ending 2-1 including a win against Green Bay and a razor-thin overtime loss to Oakland.

Still, I have my qualms with him.

I think Chiefs fans need to take a hard look at the entirety of this season and what Crennel can take credit for and what he can’t. There was also a lot I saw in the games Crennel led that had me pulling my hair out – tendencies I think could spell death for the Chiefs in 2012 if Crennel remains in charge of the game plans.

My problems with Romeo after the jump. (more…)

It was a painful Christmas weekend for the Chiefs and their fans. Hope was high when the day began and even later, the best outcome seemed highly possible: everything was falling into place—if only Kansas City could pull out a win at home. But a failed field-goal attempt at the end of regulation meant overtime and ultimately, one big play and a relatively short field goal—and the Chiefs were officially out of the playoffs.

Hard to believe it was 40 years ago.

Wait. What? Which game were you watching?

Yes, one day after the Raiders defeated the Chiefs in overtime, for their fifth straight win at Arrowhead*, I found myself masochistically sitting through another heartbreaking Chiefs loss in overtime. Double overtime.

*The last time that had happened at Arrowhead? It hadn’t.

I’ve written before about my joy in reliving past Chiefs glory that I was not living to enjoy in the first place. On Sunday, I almost too eagerly took the chance to experience some of the pain I wasn’t yet born* to appreciate, either: The NFL Network had cobbled together some never-before-rebroadcast archival footage for an hour-long special commemorating “The Longest Game Ever,” Kansas City’s 1971 division playoff against the Miami Dolphins, which was—spoiler alert!—the longest game ever, lasting well into its second overtime before—double spoiler alert—Kansas City succumbed 27-24 on a Garo Yepremian field goal.

*Though, as I indirectly explained to my daughter, the game plays a role in my being born:

[There is] a story I like to repeat, though I most definitely was not there: On December 25, 1971, [your grandmother] was watching the historic Chiefs-Dolphins divisional playoff, which I’m sure you know is still the longest game in NFL history (that’s why it’s historic!). When the game went into a second overtime, she had to choose whether or not to leave to go on a scheduled date with your grandfather. She went. This started a process—one that, I hope, your own mother will be the one to explain to you in several years—that eventually resulted in me.

In fact, when my father came to pick up my mom, it was the first time he had ever met his future in-laws, who were visiting—and at that moment glued to the TV. They would claim, jokingly—though we were never sure how much so—that they couldn’t remember meeting him that day.

Though it is part of my own family’s lore, I had never known all the little details and dramas of that day—an unseasonably 63-degree Christmas Day, which was seen as an ominous sign against a team from south Florida. The players were somewhat bummed to be playing on Christmas, an NFL first, though Len Dawson reminds viewers that many were just happy to be playing for an extra paycheck in an era when football salaries didn’t always make ends meet (Bobby Bell was working full time for General Motors—being an all-Pro linebacker for the Chiefs was merely his second job).

In the end, it would come down to the kickers. Miami’s Garo Yepremian, who looks not unlike Wallace Shawn as Vizzini in The Princess Bride, was “the smallest man in professional football,” and had spent the previous two years selling his own line of neckties. Jan Stenerud, meanwhile, was “not just a kicker, but also an athlete”—no offense, kickers—who revolutionized the position as the first dominant soccer-style kicker,* and is still the only “pure kicker” voted into the Pro-Football Hall of Fame. In fact, this game featured 15 future Hall-of-Famers (12 on the field, both head coaches, and one beloved owner). Statistically, though, the game belonged to the unlikely Ed Podolak, whose 350 all-purpose yards set an NFL playoff record that still stands.

*Have you seen the straight-ahead style kickers used to use? It’s amazing they ever made a field goal from more than 10 yards away.

However, the game would be most remembered for how the foremost kicker in the league turned into the Lin Elliot of his day, if only for one day. Stenerud missed two field goals, including a potential game-winner near the end of regulation, and had another attempt blocked in overtime. Yepremian also missed, but not twice. Eighty-two minutes and 40 seconds after the game began (according to the game clock), the short, bald former tie-maker unmade this tie with a 37-yard field goal, and the favored Chiefs were out. Inconceivable!

(more…)

Yep. So I was there.

Living on the other side of the world, my brief return for the holidays was my only opportunity to see the Chiefs in person this season. I happened to be in town for two consecutive home games – against the Packers and the Raiders — and had to choose one, so I naturally chose the one I thought they were going to win.

But, like that guy in Indiana Jones and the Quest for the Holy Grail, I chose … poorly.

My impressions after the jump. (more…)

I would like to open today’s post with a brief statement. This will just take a moment…

I TOLD YOU SO.

Sure, I’m not usually the type of person to say, “I told you so,” precisely because when I make a rare prediction, it usually turns out not to be so. But six weeks ago today, I posted the following:

The Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Green Bay Packers.

That’s right. You read it here first…

The Chiefs will beat the Packers. How do I know this? The same way I am able to evaluate every other question raised during this up-and-down Chiefs season: I have no idea. But they will. And the Packers may very well be 13-0 by the time they visit Arrowhead on December 18… They may even be resting some starters. In any event, I don’t expect the Chiefs will be playing the spoiler in terms of Green Bay’s cruise back to the playoffs. But at least [the Packers] will leave here feeling rotten.

Perhaps you infer from my giddiness that I did not have the most confidence in my own prediction. Like I said, I don’t often get these things right. Clearly, the Kyle Orton Era in Kansas City has indeed lasted more than one minute, and now the discussion is whether it should and/or will last more than one season.

I won’t say I expected Sunday’s shocker, but I felt it was really possible, a gut feeling loosely supported by historical data. I had been thinking back to the Chiefs’ triumph over the then-reigning-champion Pittsburgh Steelers in 2009—a year in which KC only won three other games—which led me to do a little research. I found that, since 1979, the Chiefs had been 6-2 (now 7-2) at home against defending Super Bowl champs. So there.

But I certainly didn’t predict that by the time this game arrived the Chiefs would have lost their starting quarterback and then ditched their head coach—the two major developments that made the difference in this upset. This changes everything. Or, rather, everything has changed. From the first drive forward on Sunday, this felt like a new team (with the same, but improved defense).

I’ll let others continue the discussion about what these new circumstances on the sidelines and behind center might mean for the Chiefs into 2012 and beyond. For now, I just care about next week and the week after that. That’s right. I’m feeling overly optimistic again.*

*It’s sorta, like, my thing.

So I will double down and offer one more “bold” prediction: The Chiefs will win the AFC West.

(more…)

Now that recent Kansas City Chiefs Head Coach Todd Haley has been “relieved of his duties” (and, presumably, his salary), it’s time to dust off that resume. This is a tough time to be looking for employment, and prospects are especially grim for a man whose primary job skills are his ability and tendency to yell at quarterbacks and NFL officials (honestly, the only place an NFL coach can get hired right now is Coors Light). Fortunately, it seems that Haley has already been busy revising the top part of his resume to reflect his hard-earned experience as a member of the Chiefs organization. Let’s take a look!

(more…)

Many plots unfolded during Sunday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field—some comic, some tragic, and it’s not necessarily easy to tell which is which. The Chiefs broke their four-game losing streak and their string of approximately 417* consecutive offensive drives without a touchdown. Quarterback Tyler Palko got his first touchdown pass and his first win as an NFL starter, which officially makes him better than Brodie Croyle. Kansas City kept its slim playoff hopes alive. Todd Haley continued to dress like a middle-school gym teacher.

*Approximately.

And, for anyone who missed it (and if you looked away for even a moment, you might have), recently acquired quarterback Kyle Orton came in for the first play of the second quarter, his first play as a Kansas City Chief, which also turned out to be his last play—of the game, perhaps of the season, and therefore, since he is only signed for the rest of the year, possibly of his entire Chiefs career. Orton had been plucked off of waivers several days earlier to fill in for quarterback Matt Cassel, who is sidelined with a hand injury. So what does Orton do? He gets sidelined with a hand injury. See? Tragic and comic.

Orton may very well return in the weeks to come—he has recovered from just this type of dislocated-finger injury before—but some observers are speculating that the Chiefs may have just paid $2.5 million for one incomplete pass, making that flea flicker “quite possibly the most expensive single play in franchise history.”

And in case this is indeed the end, the only chance Chiefs fans and Kyle Orton will have to know each other, let’s not forget this time we’ve had together. True, we’ve had our ups and downs—or rather, Orton was up, and then he went down. But respect must be paid.

And I really must learn to use iMovie. Don’t worry…the following video is only twice as long as Orton’s total playing time for the Chiefs. So let us pause for just a moment or two (all we’ll need) to relive the Kyle Orton Era in Kansas City…

Note: This post was written immediately following the Chiefs’ 34-3 dismantling by the Patriots on Monday Night Football. But let’s be honest, it could have been written hours earlier.

So, for starters, let’s look at some positives, or at least some not-totally-negatives-in-the-context-of-the-really-big-picture: Last night was not the Chiefs’ worst performance in the history of Monday Night Football. That, of course, was the infamous Monday Night Meltdown at Arrowhead Stadium in 1998, when the Chiefs lost it (the game and their composure) against the Denver Broncos and got flagged for a record 14 personal fouls (or at least that’s how I remember it).

And watching Tyler Palko—besides bringing back stirring memories of the preseason—was not the worst experience I’ve had watching a Chiefs quarterback. That, of course, came during my first-ever game at Arrowhead in the early ‘80s, at which I had the chance to witness Todd Blackledge throw a record 14 interceptions (or at least that’s how I remember it).*

*Yes, I’ve referenced this a time or two before here. I should ask my dad if he can remember the exact date of that game so I can track down the stats; it may indeed have been 14 interceptions.

But—despite the fact that Steve Young would later refer to them as “the Washington Generals”*—the Chiefs did not completely embarrass themselves last night. Before you object, please note my use of the modifier “completely” (come on, I even italicized it). For 20-some minutes, the defense made us proud, and the offense was at least putting itself in a position to make costly mistakes.

*At first, I thought he had said “Washington Sentinels,” making the kind of Palko/Falco reference that only the most brilliant commentators can come up with. But, no, it was just some lame Tom-Brady-and-the-Patriots-are-the-Harlem-Globetrotters joke.

Look, it’s hard to say that the Chiefs, despite allowing more than twice the two- touchdown spread, really failed to meet expectations. There wasn’t a single person, on this staff or on this planet, who thought K.C. had a fighting chance.*

*Or even much of a chance of fighting, like in ’98.

(more…)

In poll after poll, Chiefs fans have blamed Haley and the coaches for the last two weeks’ disastrous games. In addition to his hobo beard failing us, the Chiefs have come out flat on both sides of the ball, unable to stop defenses and too inept to get things going on offense – or at least nullifying their good work with penalties when lightning did strike.

However, if there is someone to blame, I don’t think it is Haley. Although he has undoubtedly made mistakes – the nursing-home-paced training camp, and a series of questionable play calls – I do still think he has mostly gotten the best out of what he has to work with.

Cassel has also gotten a lot of flak for his performance, and again, much of it is deserved. As it stands now, Cassel’s season stats are – and may end up permanently being – 10 TD, 9 INT, CMP% 59.5, RAT 76.6. He has had his moments, but essentially has shown that he can’t put the team on his shoulders when the run game is ineffective. I have long made my opinion known that he is a pretty much the definition of a mediocre quarterback. He can manage the game well with play-action passes and has the arm to hit a few strikes a game as long as the defense is biting on the run. But, if it’s all left to him, he will sputter. Still, he’s not the person to blame for our perpetual woes this season.

I’ll tell you who the culprit is after the jump: (more…)

AccuScore is an expert betting system that highlights weekly Expert Picks with the best chance for success. AccuScore uses historical performance and current rosters to run thousands of simulations in order to calculate individual player stat lines and probable game outcomes.

1. Wes Welker (NE): Welker takes the top spot this week after the Patriot’s big win against the Jets. Welker’s production has suffered recently as opposing defenses have figured out how to disrupt Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. This week however the Pats play the Chiefs. Expect Welker to get back on track. Projected fantasy points: 13.4.

2. Greg Jennings (GB): The Packers’ top receiver takes the second spot. Jennings caught his sixth touchdown of the year against the Vikings. The Packers play the Bucs this weekend, and Jennings will undoubtedly get plenty of looks. Projected fantasy points: 12.2.

(more…)