“Your boy Big Matt is a big fan of this draft class!”

-Your boy Big Matt

Sometimes a certain draft class just clicks for you, for whatever reason. Every pick makes sense. You come away feeling great about the players, and are predisposed to liking their play on the field. This was how I felt when the Chiefs picked Junior Siavii…

Kidding. 2005 was the last draft class I really felt that way about. I was thrilled DJ fell to us, I thought trading our second for Pat Surtain was a steal (oops) and picking Colquitt showed ingenuity. I was also high on both Boomer Grigsby and Will Svitek. Some pretty hit-and-miss analysis, admittedly, but that was how I saw things.

Since then, the Chiefs have drafted many good players. A few great ones. But the next five drafts all contained what I viewed as huge mistakes. Croyle in ’06, Turk McBride in ’07, Dorsey in ’08, Tin Man in ’09, McCluster and Arenas in 2010. All high picks that I absolutely hated at the time they were made.

2011 provided no such draft-day eyesores. Baldwin wasn’t a guy I’d been considering, but after that trade back Pioli had carte blanche to play around a little bit in my eyes. And since Baldwin shattered the “right 53″ nonsense, so much the better. After that, I gave every single pick an enthusiastic two thumbs up. Bailey might only have been one thumb actually, but the point is, this was a class that clicked with me. The porridge was just right (which for me means full of fried cod).

Still, what do we really know about these guys, after one year? We can be reasonably certain Justin Houston is going to be very good. We can also be reasonably certain I’m going to count every sack he gets as a personal victory for me and my NORML cronies.

I read an article once, many moons ago, that said of a team’s first three picks, the odds were that one would exceed expectations and excel, one would bust, and one would endure, but not necessarily impress. Obviously every draft class is different, but it was all based on odds over time. A first round pick has ___% of becoming a bust, ___% of becoming a breakout, etc. And the way it worked out, each class was statistically favored to have one player in each of the three categories.

I don’t know how accurate any of this is anymore, if it ever was. These distinctions are all subjective anyway. But I’ve found it a good way to temper expectations when looking at our top picks. It’s also interesting, after picks have been made, to look at the entire class and wonder how the chips will fall. We root for them all, but intellectually, we know half of them will be gone when the smoke clears three years later.

I like to look at picks 4-7 and think, “Which one of you silly bastards is gonna be someone I one day respect greatly?” One long-term starter is a reasonable expectation for the later rounds (Where you at, Shane Bannon?).

Back to the top picks. If we take Houston’s success as a given, that still leaves the 2011 class with a first, second and third round pick. Jonathan Baldwin, Rodney Hudson and Allen Bailey are all question marks at this point. Bailey had a promising finish, Hudson was a pick we all liked, and Baldwin had that one great catch. Still, none of them have proven anything. They could all be stars, or they could all bust.

My question is, if we’re following the methodology I outline, who we do we think is most likely to do what? The exercise requires that we pick one bust, one breakout, and one B student.

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The Chiefs can’t get to the quarterback. 

That was the difference yesterday.  Matt Cassel isn’t that bad, and Matt Moore isn’t that good.  There were plenty of things that went wrong for the Chiefs, and plenty that went right for Miami.  But when one QB is running for his life and the other has a constant, perfect pocket, the outcome is obvious.

I’m not going to talk about our offensive line today, because I don’t think thats a dire situation.  Barry Richardson is awful, but the line as a group is good enough to provide decent protection most of the time.  What we saw from them isn’t the norm.  And in any case, even if it were, there really isn’t much we could do about it at this point. 

The defensive line is another matter entirely.  What we saw from them was very much the norm.  And I think a possible solution is sitting right in front of our faces.  Find out what it is after the jump:

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Note: Even though this camp report if from Friday’s practice (the one that was so humid and caused a lot of players to struggle) I feel I’ve included a lot of material that hasn’t been included in previous camp reports.

Well Chiefs fans, the first pre-season game is now less then a week away. I was faced with a tough choice this week. My birthday is Monday and I had two options for my gift this year, a new ipod or a road trip to St. Joe to spend a day at training camp on Friday. As a true addict, you can guess which option I picked (not to mention that the title of this post should have given it away). Now I have a couple of confessions. I had never been to training camp before. Several years ago I went to an open practice at arrowhead but that’s about it. So I’m going to approach this from two different angles. The first will be for those that have never gone to camp before so that you have some idea what its like and maybe even help you out if you’re considering going. Second, I’ll try to give you some insight into what I saw on the field at camp.

It can be a little overwhelming to try and keep tabs on everything that is going on so I decided to focus a lot of my time on the offensive and defensive lines. I did this for a few different reasons. First, it is the area where I’m most concerned and wanted to see how they looked. Second, when they aren’t tackling the lines are the only place you get to see actual contact going on that closest resembles actual game play. Finally, several of the players I was most excited to get a look at were in these groups. As an added bonus, I found that the masses tend to follow the skill players around so its easier to get a look at the big guys.

I’ll give a break down of a few players that I spent some time watching specifically. Some of these I set out to watch and a couple others just caught my attention. Among them are Jerrell Powe, Kelly Gregg, Allen Bailey, Tyson Jackson, Rodney Hudson, and David Mims.

One last confession, I named my column the Armchair Addict for a reason. I’m a true armchair quarterback. I do not claim to be an expert on the proper technique for offensive and defensive linemen. So these opinions are those of one fan who watched one day of practice. If nothing else, I got some pretty good pictures.

So come along to training camp with me after the break.

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First let me apologize for not posting in over a month.  In the last month I got married in Hawaii and flew off to Europe for a three week honeymoon.  I came back to a boatload of work. (It’s been a really hard month; your sympathy would be appreciated).   During that time, I refused any internet access, and as such, I am not up on our current beloved Chiefs’ news.  The good thing is there really hasn’t been any, (other than here at AA of course).  But I digress.

The word on the street is that the Owners and Players have 85% of an agreement in place and the lockout will be over soon enough.  As I have said on previous occasions, the lockout to me has been, well, kind of trivial.  They were always going to play football.  The decision is simple: gripe about how you do not make enough money and then in fact not make any money at all, or gripe about how you do not make any money, work out a better deal (even if it is not exactly what you want), and then make money.  It is common sense.  But I digress again.

Everyone knows that I have been clamoring for a true NT for the last couple of years.  In the 2010 draft, I wanted the Chiefs to select Cam Thomas, in fact during AA’s 2010 draft chat, Merlin, myself and everyone chatting that year wanted the Chiefs to draft a true NT, especially Cam Thomas.  That did not happen.  (Cam Thomas was then selected by our rivals the Chargers in the 6^th round.  He played in 6 games, had 7 tackles and two sacks).  I thought the Chiefs must know what they are doing; they must have done their homework and not liked what they saw out of any of the true NT prospects in the 2010 Draft.  I knew the 2011 draft would be different. They had to get their true big bodied NT in order to shore up our run defense, and they had to make it priority  number one.  However, they did not.

More after the jump…

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Some people, analysts and fans alike, did not like the direction the Chiefs took in the draft.  One of the concerns is that the Chiefs traded out of the 21st pick when offensive tackles Anthony Castonzo and Gabe Carimi were both available.  The Chiefs eventually took Jonathan Baldwin, who has character concerns of his own, at the 26th pick in the first round.

There could be arguments made all day about whether the Chiefs selected the right players in the 2011 NFL Draft.  The truth of the matter is the draft is over and the players that were selected are the players the Chiefs are stuck with.  Each of these players brings something different and unique to the Chiefs roster, so without further ado lets dive into each draft picks role and expectations entering the 2011 NFL season.

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When I was looking at the way the big boards seemed to be shaking out leading up to the 2011 NFL Draft, I realized that the best day for the Chiefs would probably be Day Two.  The reason for this is that there were multiple players at multiple need positions that seemed to be a good fit for Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs looked to have their pick of players in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds.  So, let’s take a look at their picks and what they bring to the Chiefs.
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(First, let me get this out of the way:  If you are anything like me you don’t even care about the lockout anymore.  The last couple of months I try to ignore it.  I act like it is not even going on.  Why?  Because I know it is just a sham.  There will be football this year because the same greed that is causing the players and owners to fight over money will compel them to play when the time comes so that they do not lose any money.  It is simple math. It is impossible for you to disagree.  I dare you.  ) 

In any event…

I was perplexed when the Kansas City Chiefs took Miami DE Allen Bailey in the third round of the 2011 draft.  Don’t we already have depth at DE?  We have a stud in Glen Dorsey, a serviceable (and expensive) DE in Tyson Jackson, a stud in Shaun Smith, and a developing stud in Wallace Gilberry.  Do we even have room for the 285 pound 6’3 Bailey?  Sure, you can never have enough depth, right?   But to use a third round on a possible third stringer seems high, doesn’t it?  Unless….

 More after the jump…

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We spent a lot of time describing to our readers during out live draft chat just what was going on at the Chiefs draft table on the floor of Radio City Music Hall while the team was making their pick. I thought it would be cool to capture some video for you all that actually showed what it is like to be on the floor during the draft.

The video below started shortly after the Chiefs went on the clock. In it you can see the draft and Chiefs officials waiting for the pick to come in. I kept things rolling right up until the pick was made so you can see Big Matt and I react. Enjoy.

The Kansas City Chiefs have selected Miami DE Allen Bailey with their 2nd pick in the 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

And here is our annual Scott Pioli head scratcher.

Bailey weighs in at 285. He stands at 6-3. He is a bit of a tweener and though some may think he is too small to play DE in the 3-4, I think thinks pick is pure value for the Chiefs.

KC has already filled big needs at center, WR and OLB. At this point in the 3rd round, if there is no player they are crazy about, they are likely to take the best player available on their board at a position they feel they need depth. With Tyson Jackson still being a question mark, the Chiefs need more depth along their defensive line.

From a depth standpoint, Bailey may not be that bad of a pick. Some scouts consider him to be one of the best, if not the best, pure athlete in the draft.

Here is a bit from NFL Draft Geek on Bailey:

There is a lot to like about Allen Bailey, but there are also a lot of things that will scare teams away from him. To start with, he is a flat out elite athlete, pound for pound, maybe the best in the draft. His pure strength, and explosiveness give him a great foundation to his game, and if he can build off his natural abilities, he could be a dominant force at the next level. On the other hand, his athleticism is really about all he’s got. He was able to bully college sized defenders, and run around them, but in the NFL you need much more than athleticism to be an effective defensive lineman. He desperately needs to develop some finesse pass rushing moves to be used as a 4-3 DE, he needs to play with better pad level, and also create better leverage.

Bailey may not be a starter but the Chiefs are getting to the point where they have solid starters and need to start adding depth. It will be interesting to see how they decide to use Bailey.

What do you think Chiefs Nation? Sound off!