I think we’re all still trying to wrap our heads around the new regime’s first draft and its apparent strategy moving forward.

While most fans have been hoping to see the team tick as many need boxes as possible in the course of the three days at Radio City Music hall, that doesn’t appear to be the way that Chiefs GM John Dorsey does things. It seems that Dorsey views free agency as a means to fill holes, while the Draft serves to add talent, regardless of position.

The team selected SEC players with its compensatory 3^rd-rounder, its 4^th and its 5^th-round pick but the rest of players it took were from relatively small programs. 1^st overall pick OT Eric Fisher was the first player from the MAC selected that high in the conference’s history. DE/OLB Mike Catapano became the first Princeton player drafted in 12 years. NFL fans worldwide suddenly learned that there is a University of California … in Pennsylvania … after Kansas City picked C Eric Kush in the 6^th round.

Chiefs fans who were furiously googling these guys likely found very little – often not even a photograph. On one hand, the obscurity of these names showed that Dorsey and Chiefs HC Andy Reid have been doing their homework and were digging for diamonds in the rough. On the other hand, one wondered whether these guys were even on any other team’s draft boards.

I think it shows that the new regime is realistic about what it is going to get from the Draft. This is a team that counts on getting prospects – not players – from the Draft. With virtually all the team’s needs filled through free agency, late April was a time to pick up some young, unfinished products. The two big knocks against small school players is that they are difficult to evaluate due to the quality of the opponents they faced on tape and they are also expected to have a longer, tougher transition to the NFL.

But, for Fisher, Kush, Catapano, and TE Travis Kelce, that won’t be a problem, they won’t be expected to make major contributions this year. With the exception of Fisher, who will likely end up as the team’s full-time right tackle this year, the other small school guys have a line of veterans ahead of them.

Paul Frederiksen-USA TODAY Sports

However, it would be a mistake to view these guys as purely depth players. One of the biggest blind spots in Draft coverage is that commentators tend to only look at each team’s current needs and evaluate their draft on how those picks fit with what the team will need in the coming season. The reality is that actual front offices are looking much further to the 2014 and 2015 seasons – especially regimes in their first year or with solid job security.

Indeed, one of the over-looked aspects of the Chiefs’ draft was not how they added pieces for this season, but rather how it shows they are building the team for 2014.

Take a quick look at the list of Chiefs starters whose contracts will be up in the next two years and you’ll see what I mean. The notables include (presumed starters in italics):

Free Agents in 2014:

WR Dexter McCluster (slot)

TE Tony Moeaki

S Kendrick Lewis

G Jon Asamoah

G Geoff Schwartz

RB Shaun Draughn (3^rd down back)

Free Agents in 2015:

C Rodney Hudson

FB Anthony Sherman

WR Jonathan Baldwin

DE Allen Bailey

RB Nate Eachus

QB Alex Smith

Looking at this list and projecting that most of the 2013 draft class will sit this year now makes sense. All three of the Chiefs’ starting interior O-linemen are up for free agency in the next two years and the only one who we have under contract until 2015 is Hudson, who is a bit of a question mark coming off of a broken leg. In this situation, it makes perfect sense to take a high-upside center from a small school knowing that he may have to step in at one of those three interior roles in the next two years.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Similarly, despite the fact that the Chiefs already had two good blocking/pass-catching tight ends in Moeaki and Anthony Fasano, it makes perfect sense to draft Kelce knowing that Moeaki is injury-prone and in a contract year. Kelce may not see the field this year, but his presence on the roster gives the team options at TE next year when Moeaki will be looking at the door. Depending on how Moeaki plays and his health holds up, he may be disposable or he may be valuable, but the team will have a better bargaining hand with Fasano locked up long-term and a young, dynamic tight end in the wings who will be playing on a cheap, multi-year contract.

The same goes for the running back position behind RB Jamaal Charles. Third-round pick Knile Davis was the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiefs draft. He’s been banged up and last put up good tape in 2011. Spending a year in the meeting rooms as the #4 RB will hopefully allow him to heal up and be ready to take up the reins as the contracts for the two guys ahead of him come to an end.

Both De’Quan Menzie (who spent his rookie season on IR) and 5^th-round pick Sanders Commings project as CB/S hybrids and both have the big bodies and hard-hitting style to make them potential replacements for Lewis, who is oft-injured and also in a contract year.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I should say that I don’t necessarily expect these draft picks to replace all of the incumbents, but you have to admire the cleverness and forethought that Dorsey brings to this front office. No matter what happens this season, he has already set up the team to have flexibility and depth at positions where it will potentially be vulnerable after the next round of free agency.

The one big looming 2015 free agent on that list is obviously Smith and anyone’s guess is as good as mine what the team’s opinion of him will be when February 2015 rolls around. He may have just won us a championship; he may have proven to be garbage without the mentorship of 49ers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

I also have absolutely no idea what to expect out of UDFA QB Tyler Bray. He may turn into something, he may turn into nothing. What I do know is that the team wagered absolutely nothing on him so even if his ceiling is that of an average backup, it will have been a sound move.

One way or the other, given that Smith is 29, don’t be surprised to see a quarterback taken high in next year’s draft regardless of how he plays in 2013. His contract will be up the following year and this is just how Dorsey rolls.

Last week, I laid out why I think it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to select DT Star Lotulelei with their first pick. This week, it’s Joeckel’s turn.

There’s probably no player more frequently mocked to the Chiefs than LT Luke Joeckel, but there are a lot of problems with that pick.

Still, let’s start with the good:

He’s a blue chip player at a blue chip position and if the Chiefs don’t re-sign Brandon Albert, it’s a need position for the Chiefs as well.

By almost all accounts he is one of the top three prospects in this draft. Left tackles with the natural ability and prototypical size that he has do not grow on trees. In a year of iffy quarterback prospects, tackles also tend to be safer picks and he’ll be cheaper than retaining Albert’s services most likely.

He has no injury concerns and held his own against some of college football’s best pass rushers in the SEC. All around, he is a low-risk pick and could be the best LT in all of football with some development.

So why not take him?

First off, while there is an overall lower bust rate for tackles in the top of the draft, they’re not a sure bet either. Of the eight tackles taken in the top ten since 2008, all but two are currently rated by Scouts Inc. as just “good starters,” which they describe as a “Solid starter who is close to being an outstanding player … Has few weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchup but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the league.”

That’s not exactly an inspiring result for a 1^st overall pick. If you pick in the top five, you should be landing a guy that is a star in the league for years, not a guy who is merely better than average.

Brandon Albert, on the other hand, is rated as an “outstanding player” by Scouts Inc., which they describe as, “Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL … A feature player who has an impact on the outcome of the game … Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week-in and week-out.”

In other words, if the past five years of drafts are any indication, the Chiefs have essentially a one in four chance of drafting a tackle as good as Brandon Albert. In fact, Brandon Albert is probably one of the most under-rated players on the Chiefs roster. He was ranked the 7^th best left tackle in pass protection by Pro Football Focus in 2012 giving up just one sack throughout the season, and Jamaal Charles ran his best when going wide left behind Albert last year. At the final tally, he averaged 8.1 yards for 459 total, gaining roughly a third of his total yards and three of his five touchdowns that way – including that miracle sprint that won us the Saints game.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

But looking at Joeckel himself as a prospect, he is also far from perfect. Going back to the Scouts Inc. grades, the only thing he is rated as “exceptional” in is “awareness.” Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that he’s a smart football player, but I also get a bit antsy about prospects other than quarterbacks whose primary accolade is that they have veteran awareness, because that is ideally the area where they will improve the most once they get to the NFL. Most players do not fundamentally change their bodies and physical tools once they get to the pros, because there’s only so much more you can do when you’re built like these guys are.

In their grades on both his pass protection and run blocking, Scouts Inc. notes he lacks “power in punch” and “initial pop,” noting he doesn’t always drive defenders off the line, but is usually able to make up for his lack of strength with good reactions. While I imagine he can bulk up some, if he’s getting outmuscled in college, he’s going to get straight up beaten in the NFL. Plus, if his awareness is already topped out, he may have peaked already.

The last team to pick a left tackle 1^st overall was the Miami Dolphins in 2008. They had a similar plan to the one that is very popular in the comment section – they got their franchise LT in Jake Long with their first overall pick and then snagged a falling QB prospect in the 2^nd round – Chad Henne. In fact, there are lot of similarities between the 2012 Chiefs and the Dolphins going into the 2008 Draft. They too had a solid defense and a team with good veteran pieces in place. So how did it go?

What occurred was the greatest single-season turnaround in NFL history as they improved from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008, winning the Tom Brady-less AFC East and going to the playoffs. But, it didn’t last.

Still running with free-agent-signing Chad Pennington at quarterback, the Dolphins turned stale as their game plan of short, accurate passing with Pennington stopped working. Teams also started figuring out the wildcat formation and when Pennington got injured, the team was forced to confront the fact that Henne was something less than a starting quality QB. He finished the season with 12 TD’s, 14 INT’s and a QBR of 51.3.

Three picks after they grabbed Jake Long, the Falcons drafted QB Matt Ryan. Since the 2008 draft, the Falcons’ regular season record is 56-24. The Dolphins have gone 38-42 and haven’t been back to the playoffs since 2008. Meanwhile, Jake Long has ended up being a solid player but has had so many injury problems that the team plans to let him walk on the free market this offseason.

At this stage of the process, the chattering consensus is that it would be a reach for the Chiefs to take any quarterback at #1, however there’s also no guarantee that they will be able to take one of the top two quarterback prospects at all if they wait to try and jump into the back of the 1^st round or take whatever is left in round two. Free agent options are uninspiring to say the least.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a left tackle that they could re-sign who is better than 75% of the tackles taken in the top 10 of the 1^st round in the last five years.

The Chiefs need to decide if they want to be the Dolphins or the Falcons, whether they want to take a chance to fundamentally change this team, or whether they want to play the best card we have this offseason to fill a hole that we’d be making ourselves.

For me the choice is simple, don’t draft Joeckel if you want to take a big step forward.

It’s that time of year again, when we all scour every mock draft we can find and endlessly ponder and argue about what the Chiefs should do once April 25^th rolls around.

Everyone has an opinion, most formed forged by a mix of personal preferences, tape study, and a survey of mocks and expert commentary. The problem is that draft science is far from a real science and Mel Kiper Jr. is not god. In fact, the man is our creation – he exists as a result of our obsession and boredom this time of year, and don’t get me wrong, I listen to his podcast, read his articles and scan through all of his mocks. Still, that is far from meaning that the Chiefs should take his advice on Draft day.

The big theme of this round of draft chatter is about how none of the QB’s are worthy of the first overall pick so therefore the Chiefs should steer clear of them with their first selection, choosing instead one of the standout pass-rushers or linemen.

Perhaps it’s my background as a journalist, but I hate groupthink and that includes the conventional wisdom that builds up around this time every year and then gets shattered by the guys actually making the decisions. Let’s be clear, regardless of whatever the self-styled draft scientists say, the player that is worth the Chiefs 1^st pick is the player most likely to make the team better, Kiper’s big board be damned.

To me, it is obvious that this player is whoever the Chiefs deem to be the best quarterback prospect available. I believe that player to be Geno Smith, but what John Dorsey thinks is far more important than my amateur evaluation. In the coming weeks I will go through and detail why the Chiefs shouldn’t pick each individual other prospect that the so-called experts have mocked to them, but for now, I just want to point out that Dorsey has a much better track record than the “experts” when it comes to drafting quality players.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s compare the Packers’ 1^st-round picks since 2005 with what the scientists wanted them to choose:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Pick #: 28

Result: Jury Still Out. Perry started five games this season and racked up a couple of sacks, but couldn’t stay healthy and finished the year on injured reserve with a wrist injury.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Pick #: 32

Result: Jury Still Out. I know it seems like a cop-out, but Sherrod has also seen limited time due to injury. He broke both the tibia and fibula in his leg during the team’s stunning loss to the Chiefs in 2011 and hasn’t been back on the field since. Before then, he started five games giving up no sacks but generating concern in Green Bay about his grasp of the fundamentals.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2010: T Bryan Bulaga

Pick #: 23

Result: High-end starter. Drafted late in the round, Bulaga has played right tacklke for three years “near a Pro Bowl level” and will get a shot at playing left tackle in 2013, according to the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2009: B.J. Raji

Pick #: 9

Result: Franchise player. Raji is a major force at his position and a difference-maker in games.

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

2009: LB Clay Mathews

Pick #: 26

Result: Franchise player. Ditto for Matthews. 42.5 sacks since being drafted. ‘Nuff said.

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2007: DT Justin Harrell

Pick #: 16

Result: Bust due to injury. There is an odd theme to injury being the bane of the Packers’ most promising young players, but it was again the case here. He was cut in 2011 after four disappointing seasons, which the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel summed up thusly: “Harrell never quite had a chance to cash in on his potential as injuries robbed him each season.” Still, he was drafted with a torn bicep suffered in college and was a risky pick on the behalf of the Packers’ front office.

2006: OLB A.J. Hawk

Pick #: 5

Result: High-end starter. ESPN insider describes him as: “an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is an instinctive player who understands angles and how to the leverage the football. He has improved attacking the line of scrimmage being more physical on contact. He is solid as a zone coverage defender but may get exposed in combination man schemes.”

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

2005: QB Aaron Rodgers

Pick #: 24

Result: Living legend. A-Rodg probably has to get another Super Bowl victory to punch his ticket to Canton, but he is one of the best three quarterbacks playing this game right now, possibly the very best.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

All and all, not a bad haul for eight first-round picks – one bust, two high-end starters, two franchise players, and one superstar that will define this generation for the team. I don’t need to remind you of what the Chiefs got themselves through these years, but suffice to say it is significantly less stellar.

How did the experts do? Well, this is what Kiper, king of the draftniks, wanted Green Bay to do all of these years:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Ok, this one was sort of obvious. Green Bay needed a pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews and Perry was projected to be the only one available at this spot.

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Ditto. Also shows that these iffy picks were eminently popular.

2010:  G Mike Iupati

Real pick #: 17 by San Francisco

Result: High-end starter. Scouts Inc. has him ranked as the 49ers’ 6^th best player.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2009: CB Malcom Jenkins

Real pick #: 14 by New Orleans

Result: Good starter. The Saints moved him to free safety where he shows good overall skills on that dreadful defense but hasn’t been a difference maker. He has four interceptions in four seasons.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2008: CB Antoine Cason

Real pick #: 27 by San Diego

Result: High-end starter. He gives up big plays, but is overall still a solid d-back. His Madden 13 overall rating was 86, which is pretty dern good.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2007: RB Marshawn Lynch

Real pick #: 12 by Buffalo

Result: High-end starter. Lynch is a borderline franchise player and definitely would have been a good pick for Green Bay if Buffalo hadn’t snatched him four picks earlier. It’s also important to note, however, that Lynch was a trouble-maker who washed out for his first team, which very well could have been the Packers instead of the Bills.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2006: A.J. Hawk

Right again! Rival expert Todd McShay had the Packers taking TE Vernon Davis. Now that would be scary.

2005: S/OLB (?) Thomas Davis

Real pick #: 14 by Carolina

Result: Mediocre player. Davis’ biggest problems lately have been health. He only played nine games in three seasons from 2009 to 2011 and didn’t stand out in 15 starts in 2012, picking up 68 tackles, no sacks and one interception for the Panthers.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

So matched up against the real Green Bay front office, Kiper would have gotten for them four high-end starters plus one good and one mediocre player vs. one superstar, two franchise players, two high-end starters and a bust. That, of course is what conventional wisdom brings – low-risk moves that pay off but make no home runs.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Was 24 the right spot for Aaron Rodgers to be drafted? Well, we know now that it definitely was not. Instead, Alex Smith was taken 1^st overall that year followed by RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cedric Benson, RB Cadillac Williams and CB Pacman Jones. Why? Well, it was a strong running back draft class, just like this is a strong draft for defensive front-seven players.

This is why the “best player available” philosophy is always so misunderstood. Best player available doesn’t mean “next player on Kiper’s Big Board” or “the consensus pick by the draft scientists.” It means finding a player with something special that you can envision helping your team, possibly leading it to the promised land. John Dorsey is much better at that part of the game than any of the talking heads, and has proven it.

Forget about what the crowd says would be “good value” for Chiefs #1 pick. Good value is going to be getting the best quarterback for the future we can. Trading Albert for a young tackle prospect is not good value. Picking up another overhyped D-lineman or undersized pass-rusher isn’t either.

In short, don’t listen to the chatter. Dorsey’s got this.

Jan 22, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey discusses with his scouts and coaches following the Senior Bowl South Squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Like any other fan on the Addict, I dream dreams for the Chiefs of pick-sixes, Hail Marys that have a chance and better  than eight-win seasons (I’m being more realistic now instead of mentioning, you know, the Super Bowl) … among other dreams that I don’t want to get into here.

Yes, I have spent a lot of time in the land of “what if?” Like, I used to think about… what if the Chiefs were respected around the league… and in their own home town.

Now, my what-iffing is all about the Chiefs’ future. So, let’s play…

Would You? Could You?

(more…)

I had forgotten that the Chiefs can play good football.

But, as much as playing well and getting a win for a change felt good, it matters very little how the team plays in the remaining four games. 2012 will go down as a miserable lost season.

Obviously, what was merely an ugly season on the field to this point turned much, much darker this weekend with Jovan Belcher’s shocking and depressing murder-suicide. Clearly, that tragedy outweighs anything that happened in the game itself.

Still, this game showed that when this team manages to not commit perilous mistakes, it is a force to be reckoned with. But, the major factors in this win were extremely unexpected. I did not think that today I would be preparing to heap praise on the likes of OC Brian Daboll, WR Jonathan Baldwin and QB Brady Quinn.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Quinn played what was easily the best game of his career going 19/23 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and a QB rating of 132.1. Seriously. Yes, that Brady Quinn. Going into this game, his 2012 stat line was: 402 yards on 81 attempts for 0 TDs, 4 INTs.

While Baldwin only touched the ball twice, they were two of the most important plays of the game. He set up the team’s first touchdown on an opening drive in nearly two years with a big 34-yard catch-and-run. Then, late in the third quarter he used his big frame to box out the corner on a quick slant for a touchdown that all but sealed the game for the Chiefs.

This was also far and away the best showing of HC Romeo Crennel and Daboll. Gone were the head-scratching play calls, the ludicrously conservative decision-making, the wasted timeouts, and general dysfunction. Finally, these two were aggressive and they rolled with what was working – Jamaal Charles and Quinn, who was apparently possessed by a devilishly efficient quarterback demon shortly before the game.

It also bears noting that while Carolina is just 3-9 this year, their defense is ranked eighth against the pass and has allowed the 12^th fewest touchdowns in the league. Amazingly, the Chiefs offense was able win the day despite the fact that QB Cam Newton had about as good of a game as possible, finishing with 310 total yards and three passing touchdowns.

While the Chiefs pass defense took a serious hit when CB Brandon Flowers went down with a hamstring injury, the front seven played reasonably well overall. OLB Justin Houston was great as usual. DE Tyson Jackson built on last week’s strong performance and is making a strong case for being kept on the roster, although surely he’d have to take another pay cut to do so.  NT Dontari Poe appears to be continuing to progress and some guy named Tysyn Hartman lead the team with six tackles.

This win begs the question, what will the Chiefs do if the team somehow wins out and ends the season 6-10? Let me be on the record as saying that nothing, absolutely nothing can excuse the way this team played for most of this season. Even if Quinn continues to impress, GM Scott Pioli can’t claim that starting the guy was his plan all along. And, the team absolutely needs to draft a QB in the first round this year no matter what.

Pioli and Crennel should be forever commended for holding this team together through this tragic week and especially for confronting Belcher in the parking lot in an attempt to keep him from harming anyone else or himself. Still, what was true on Friday is true today — Pioli has failed in key areas of his duties and this team does not currently have a professionally competitive coaching staff.

With remaining games against the Browns, Raiders, Colts and Broncos, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if this team manages to make a run. But what will that mean? Last year, Crennel got his job by winning two of the team’s last three games after a long disappointing stretch. But, this team is capable of far more than just-below-.500 seasons and doubling down on this current crew would send the message that a 6-10 season was a success.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

However, I’m also not in the camp of people hoping this team will be so putrid through the next month that it will earn the dubious honor of holding the 1^st overall pick in the Draft. It appears so far to be a weak QB draft, and guys like Geno Smith will be within reach for Kansas City pretty much no matter how the pick order shakes out. If it takes a RG3-type deal to get the guy that the Chiefs think they need, I’m all for it, but I don’t think it will be necessary.

This season has been a mess, and the team had shown poor mental toughness through 11 weeks of football. But leave it to the Chiefs to shock and surprise you in a game just when you thought you knew what you think about them.

The basic truth is that this Monday is just like every other Monday: we wake up, go to work, the Chiefs lost again, still no one has been fired.

Nothing else really matters right now, but as I was watching last night’s predictably loathsome outing, I was surprised by one thing – Pioli’s draft picks are starting to make a difference.

Up until this point, all the bright spots on this squad had all been drafted by the Herm Edwards regime or earlier – RB Jamaal Charles (3^rd, 2008), OLB Tamba Hali (1^st, 2006), ILB Derrick Johnson (1^st, 2005), CB Brandon Flowers (2nd, 2008), LT Brandon Albert (1^st, 2008), WR Dwayne Bowe (1^st, 2007). It was looking like four years of drafts manned by Scott Pioli and company had been a total waste and the team had overall moved backwards.

Furthermore, looking at injuries and the past performance of both of these teams, this matchup looked brutal. The left side of the Chiefs’ O-line was to be run by two rookies against one of the league’s best pass rushes. With CB Stanford Routt cut, the Chiefs would be defending Peyton Manning’s passes at the flanker and slot positions with CB Javier Arenas and CB Jallil Brown. Four and five receiver sets would put Travis Daniels and Abram Elam on the field. With Jonathan Baldwin out and Bowe nicked up, Terrance Copper and Jeremy Newsome were to see significant action as number-two receivers.

I was mentally preparing myself for watching the blowout of the season. Maybe the century.

To my surprise, due to a valiant defensive effort, Charles, and some uncharacteristic miscues on the part of the Broncos, this was a close, competitive game. Basically, the only reason this game wasn’t a massacre was because Pioli’s draft picks — hitherto invisible and ineffective — finally came to play.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Let’s start with the aforementioned rookie linemen – LT Donald Stephenson (3rd, 2012) and LG Jeff Allen (2^nd, 2012). Along with RG Jon Asamoah (3^rd, 2010), both blocked extremely well in the run game and held their own in pass protection. Allen had already shown flashes this year. This was Stephenson’s coming-out party. With the exception of a dumb clipping penalty that stalled a drive, the ex-Sooner had a good game and looks to be a valuable situational tackle and reserve and for Albert down the road.

The cornerbacks not named Brandon Flowers that I was terrified about actually played head’s up all day. This was easily Arenas’ (2^nd, 2010) most solid all-around game. He covered very well and put the offense in good field position several times in the return game (not that they did anything with it).  While he still has his struggles, Brown (4^th, 2011) also looked like a pro and stuck with his receivers all day.

S Eric Berry (1^st, 2010) had a decent comeback game. Despite allowing one of the two touchdowns, he seems to be finding his way back to playing like a quality starter with a tackle-for-loss and two passes defended.

WR Dexter McCluster (2^nd, 2010) caught every ball thrown his way and had a key 19-yard run on one of the Chiefs better drives. TE Tony Moeaki (3^rd, 2010) is also showing he’s finally healthy after his preseason knee-tear last year.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

As a unit, this was the D-line’s best game this year. While he hasn’t been racking up stats (as expected), NT Dontari Poe (1^st, 2012) is coming into his own and had his name called a lot yesterday with four tackles, a tackle-for-loss and a pass batted down. DE Tyson Jackson (1^st, 2009) is finally looking like a dynamic lineman in several consecutive games and was good following the ball and quarterback, getting to Manning twice for a QB hit and a tackle right on the line of scrimmage that otherwise would have been recorded as a sack.

But, of course, the star of the show (and clearly the best value pick of Pioli’s tenure) was OLB Justin Houston (3^rd, 2011). Amazingly, Houston is outplaying even Hali – the Beast himself. He was a constant terror for Manning and finished the day with four solo tackles, two sacks and four QB hits. He now has nine sacks, one forced fumble, an interception, and four passes defended in 2012.

However, as much as this game would seem to compliment Pioli’s drafting acumen, it was also an indictment of his free agency wheeling-and-dealing. Aside from the obvious failure of the Routt signing, RT Eric Winston has played well but not outstanding and has a tendency to pick up a couple of penalties per game.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Most glaring of course is the quarterback position. Trading the 34^th overall pick in 2009 netted the Chiefs: QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel. Vrabel played just a couple of years for the team and was questionably effective. I don’t need to explain to you how the Cassel experience has been, but suffice to day he was riding the pine this game. Starting in his stead was another free agent acquisition who appears to be a low-end backup. None of QB Brady Quinn’s deep balls were even remotely on target. And while he was efficient in picking up short passes, he was too timid to stretch the field and was dreadfully inaccurate all second half.

WR Steve Breston, who got a five-year deal with $9.5 million guaranteed last year was inactive again behind two practice squad bodies. He has three catches since Week 5. I see absolutely no reason to give the ball to RB Peyton Hillis anymore, who was signed for $3 million this year. He’s slow, accident-prone and just doesn’t give the Chiefs anything they can’t get from RB Shaun Draughn.

Still, the fact that several of the Chiefs’ recent draft picks in the defense and O-line are starting to come to life is unambiguously positive for the team long-term. Hopefully, if these guys can maintain consistency, the next coach/GM won’t feel the need to blow the team up and start over with new young players.

No matter how well these guys play down the stretch, however, I just can’t see a scenario in which it saves Pioli’s job. Even if we do somehow look back at his drafts as being effective a year or two from now, he will still be on the books for constant coaching disarray. We’ve had five offensive coordinators in four years. He fired and denied pay to one head coach after two and a half years, and replaced him with his absolutely hapless friends who turned the brand into a laughing stock. He totally ignored the development of the most important position on the field, and inspired at least one character for the film Horrible Bosses (guess which one).

So, on his way out the door, I’d like to thank Pioli for not drafting totally uselessly. We’ll keep some of these guys as you move on to destroy a different team. Much appreciated.

The Kansas City Chiefs continued to break our hearts this past Sunday, getting trounced by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rumors have surfaced about Pioli’s (and even Crennel’s) future with the team. Though this article was pre-planned by a couple weeks, it’s actually as good a time as any to look ahead to the 2013 offseason to see how the Chiefs’ cards fall as it concerns the roster and salary cap.

To kickoff, let’s start out by listing which players’ contracts are expiring at the end of this season.

A few names that I’m sure have popped out are Albert, Bowe & Dorsey, as they’ve been the most talked-about players whose contracts will be expiring (such talk dating back to at least April), with a lot of that talk being related to how high of a contract these players may demand. Two other names that pop out to me (though whose contracts should be exponentially cheaper) are Colquitt and Gafford. Not only should a punter’s and long-snapper’s value to a team not be underestimated, but they’re among the only players who have been consistently performing up to standard all season.

A lot of how we view what player personnel changes should be made relies on a general idea of how much a player would likely demand and how much money is likely available for the team to use on these players. It’s the latter portion of this speculation that I (and my Spotrac-obsessed hind parts) primarily hope to shed light on this week.

At last announcement, the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million remaining in cap availability; though I’ve indicated in past that some of this money many be promised to players in the form of NLTBE incentives (and thereby wouldn’t show up until next season after the player has earned said incentive, we’ll assume for the sake of this exercise that either such NLTBEs were not set or, if they were set, weren’t met. So the Chiefs should have at least $14.5 million in cap space available next season by rollover alone, but how else is the team looking?

Running the numbers on next season’s non-FAs (read: guys that’ll still be on roster), I’ve discovered that the team currently is set to be allocating approximately $117 million towards cap hitting player expenses. It is likely that next year’s league defined cap will be in the same range as this year’s set cap which is $120.6 million. So, before factoring in rollover money, the Chiefs are only set to have about $3.6 million freed up to spend on FAs (regardless of whether they’re the Chiefs’ own or from other teams). That’s not counting the estimated $7 million dollars that will be required to spend on next season’s draft class. So, without the rollover, the Chiefs are in the hole $3.4 million.

Looks pretty bad at first glance, but let’s tack on the rollover money: that would put the Chiefs $11.1 million under cap after the rookie class is taken into consideration. Okay, now that doesn’t look as bad, but there are at least three big names up for FA and $11.1 million cap availability looks to be able to sign only one.

There appears to be a way around this, but it’s one that Pioli may not like as it involves two of “his” players:

1) Tyson Jackson, through “help” of a contract escalator, is set to be making $14.72 million in base salary next season and has also caused additional cap hits through bonuses amounting to $2.525 million. According to NFL.com’s Brian McIntyre (formerly of Mac’s Football Blog), Tyson Jackson’s 2013 base salary is only guaranteed for $3.22 million. So it looks like a certain someone should probably be cut. In doing so, the Chiefs would free up $11.5 million dollars in cap space (as indicated in a previous article, bonus money has a way of becoming dead money, so we’re looking at $14.72 million minus the guaranteed $3.22 million the Chiefs would be required to pay Jackson out of cap hitting funds). Now we’re up to $22.6 million in available cap space in 2013.

2) Matt Cassel. Though I’ve been unable to locate how much, if any, of Matt Cassel’s base salary for 2013 & 2014 is guaranteed, we’ll assume for this exercise that none of it is, and the only Chiefs obligation would come from bonuses. Cassel is currently set to cause a $9.825 million cap hit in 2013. Were he cut (and again assuming that none of the base salary is guaranteed), the Chiefs would be looking to spend $4.2 million in dead money, freeing up about $5.625 million in 2013. This would bring the available cap space to $28.225 million dollars (assuming a Jackson cut… and, at his ludicrous 2013 salary, why shouldn’t we want to see Jackson cut?).

Now, I realize I just threw out a bunch of numbers in sentence-form, which, if you’re anything like me, makes it a little harder to follow and reference. So to make the presentation of this information a little bit easier, I’ve devised the following table

“EOS” refers to the summation of the expected cap hit Entering the OffSeason (includes both players on roster, including Jackson and Cassel, and the rookie pool of approx. $7 mil). Current rollover is what it sounds like: money that may be expected to be rolled over and help alleviate the cap room. The $11.5 million in the “Jackson” column is what could be expected to be loosened up in cap space were TJax to be cut; same with the $5.625 million in the “Cassel” column.

So the question arises: how should this potential cap money be spent? To help facilitate this line of thinking I’ve developed the following hypothetical situations.

NOTE: One thing to remember in doing these hypotheticals is that, of the 18 positions open due to contracts expiring, seven will be filled through draft (at least as of now, and whose cap hit has already been accounted for in the figures) and two (the lowest priced ones) won’t count towards the cap (cap is determined by the highest 51 contracts of the 53-man roster come the regular season), so nine spots will need to be filled through re-signing the Chiefs FAs, or signing FAs from other teams, or signing UDFAs after the draft. These nine spots will cause a minimum cap hit of $3.51 million [determined as the minimum (rookie) contract of $390,000 X 9 spots].

Hypothetical Situation #1

For whatever reason (brain damage, maybe?), it’s decided to not cut Jackson or Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $11.1 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #2

You’re slightly less brain-damaged and decide to cut Cassel and leave Jackson be. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $16.725 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #3

You’ve decided to cut Jackson, but leave Cassel on board for back-up purposes (he’s an expensive back-up, but provides a veteran presence/experience at the position, so you think the harm to the cap outweighs allowing a rookie squad plus Stanzi to run solo). After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $22.6 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #4

You’ve made the decision to cut both Jackson and Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $28.225 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Bonus: Hindsight Hypothetical

Not knowing how this season would play out up to this point, you decide to sign all the players in FA that Pioli decided to sign, but you’ve decided to tweak the offseason slightly by also re-signing Carr. The terms of the agreement are the same terms the Cowboys offered him. For the sake of this hypothetical we’re assuming matching these terms would be enough for him to re-sign with the Chiefs, childhood dreams be damned. This season, Carr’s contract hits the cap by $3.2 million; in 2013, it hits the cap by $16.3 million. The rollover money is now $11.3 million (the current $14.5 million minus the $3.2 million cap hit). In adding Carr onto the 2013 roster, and taking rookie cap into account, the new 2013 cap obligations amount to $140.3 million. After deducting the new rollover amount ($11.3 mil), you’re down to $129 million in cap obligations. The league defined cap is still $120.6 mil; you have to come into compliance. Cutting Cassel wouldn’t be enough to come into compliance ($129 mil minus $5.625 mil is still greater than $120.6 mil), so your hand is forced in cutting Jackson to free up that $11.5 mil. Without additionally cutting Cassel (yet), the cap obligations decrease to $118.5 leaving only $2.1 million in available cap (not even enough to re-sign Colquitt). Now by cutting Cassel the available cap can be increased to $7.725. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

____________

Of the four, still possible, hypotheticals, I’d personally subscribe to Hypothetical Situation #4. Cutting Jackson seems to me to be a no-brainer (no way is he worth $17.245 million, and I’d rather tie up $5.745 mil in dead money in 2013 for the sake of having the remaining $11.5 million available to help with re-signing players or potentially dabbling in FA with other teams’ players). Though, with Quinn entering FA, cutting Cassel leaves the team without a QB on roster with regular season experience, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing the Chiefs “double-tap” the QB position in the draft (ideally, Geno Smith in Round 1 and, if he or someone like him drops so far, someone like Collin Klein in Round 3 – keeping in mind that the loss of Carr will likely earn the Chiefs a compensatory Round 3 draft pick); it’d be a risk, what with both players having no NFL experience, but it’s a risk I’d like to see be taken. I know, it’s probably crazy to draft two QBs such as the ‘Skins did this past draft with RGIII and Kirk Cousins, and especially crazy given the team I’m suggesting do it (our beloved Chiefs) given the team’s history in this regard, but God help me, if Klein is available later, despite the Heisman hype, I’d love to see a QB with his fight and passion as the #2 keeping guys pumped on the sideline, and I’d trust someone like him to not do any worse than the Chiefs QBs this year were a situation to arise where he’d have to play. I’m sure it’s a pipe dream, but that’s part of what this exercise is about.

As for how I’d like to see the freed up $28.225 million spent: I’d prefer to see Bowe and Albert re-signed for certain. Given the average costs of WRs and LTs of similar quality, this could cost as little as $8 million in 2013 (akin to Carr’s deal with the ‘Boys where he accepted an incredibly low base salary in the 1^st year of the contract, given that he still received $10 million in signing bonus this season, and just allowed the team to prorate it over the course of five seasons at $2 million a season) or it could cost as high as $20 million (taking the average cap hits of comparable players’ contracts). I’ll assume the 2013 costs to be somewhere in between at $14.225 total for both players (2014’s projected cap hit based on active contracts is only $84.894378, so a deal structure closer to Carr’s wouldn’t be nearly as damaging that year).

So, in my scenario, I’m down to $14 million available. I’d definitely re-sign Colquitt and Gafford who, combined, would likely hit the cap by $3.5 million in 2013, leaving $10.5 million available.

Given that I’d be cutting one starting DE (Jackson) and letting the other walk in FA (Dorsey), I’d probably re-sign Pitoitua (whose re-signing I’m estimating to hit the 2013 cap by $1.5 million) and would gun for a DE in either Round 3 (compensatory Carr pick) or Round 4 in the draft.

Down to $9 million in cap space, I might also bring back Edgar Jones and Lilja (estimating a $2.7 million combined cap hit in 2013, $800,000 for Jones and $1.9 mil for Lilja). Jones has been a boost to ST this year and provides okay LB depth (and is one less position to be targeted in the draft) and Lilja would provide reliable back-up depth, if nothing more, and would help keep the OL more intact as they continue to gel together in this year’s new zone blocking system.

Two cap-hitting roster spots remain in this scenario and I’ll assume they’ll be filled by rookie UDFAs (for a cap hit of about $800,000) bringing the remaining money down to about $5.9 million, which I might let ride into 2014.

For the draft I’d target: QB, ILB (I’m letting both Belcher and Siler walk after all), DE & DB (in that order of importance).

As for my thoughts on the “Hindsight Hypothetical”: Carr really doesn’t look like he’d have been worth it. With only $7.725 mil remaining, which is really only about $4.225 mil after deducting the minimum $3.51 mil for nine open roster spots (which I mentioned in my “note” up there), a ton of useful players would need to be allowed to walk and maybe one of Bowe, Albert or Dorsey (at absolute best) could’ve been re-signed. At risk to be replaced through rookies (by drafting or signing as UDFA) would’ve been QB (Cassel would’ve had to been cut, which looks like an inevitability now, but had he returned to 2010 form would be deemed a problem, and Quinn probably couldn’t be re-signed even if you wanted to), both starting DEs and one of the back-up DEs, two out of three starting OL positions (Albert & Lilja), star WR (Bowe), starting ILB (Belcher) and his best back-up option (Siler), the punter, the long snapper, and two veteran S’s (Daniels and Elam; leaving only current rookie Tysyn Hartman and rookie IR player De’quan Menzie as backups). That would be cause for a massive rebuild (all those positions can’t be addressed in the draft, and not early enough in the draft to be hopeful about the players’ ability to replace the lost players with an equal or higher level) and would put the Chiefs in a much, much worse position than the team currently finds itself in. Not signing Winston, Boss or Routt would’ve cleared up about a maximum of $10 mil to be rolled over into next season, and cleared up active contract requirements in 2013 to the tune of about $18.2 mil for a total of $28.2 mil. These are much nicer figures for signing at least two of the big three in 2013, but doesn’t address the issue of what to do about RT this season (whichever choice being made decreasing the rollover amount), or the depth at TE this season (a “contingency plan” being a top concern considering Moeaki’s early injury in 2011), and the secondary depth would still be the same it is today (meaning it would still not be good enough). Maybe things could’ve worked out, but considering it would require leaving nearly $24.5 mil in available cap this year (for the intent purpose of rolling the money over to help during the 2013 season), the heat from fans and media for any underperformance while having greater cap space availability would be even hotter than it is now; not to mention the heat turning up if Moeaki fell to injury without preemptive back-up efforts being made, or BRich received an extension.

As for whether or not the Chiefs should make a play on Matt Flynn or another prospect to help turn around this season now: just keep in mind that the acquisition of such a player would decrease the available funds for rollover into 2013, and that if such player had a contract for more than just this 2012 season you’d have to increase the cap numbers for 2013, too . This would also affect the hypotheticals and how likely it’d be to re-sign who you deem to be key players next year*. Trading for a QB or picking up a QB from FA (McNabb?? Garrard??) might not be as harmful as re-signing Carr could’ve been. The re-signing of Carr would have not only decreased how much cap was left to rollover into 2013 by $3 mil, but also would have added the obligation of a $16.3 mil cap hit to next season which is what would’ve made it so potentially damaging. So, if you feel a QB now would be worth the cost, feel free to hypothesize in the Comments section, just be mindful that how money is spent in this season does have an effect on what personnel moves may be made next season.

*Assuming that all that changes hands are Flynn and draft picks. If someone like Bowe were traded for Flynn directly, or traded to MIA for picks, and picks traded to SEA for Flynn, then the loss of Bowe’s salary would make up for the addition of Flynn’s. In that case both Albert and Dorsey could be re-signed next year, if so chosen, what with Bowe out of the mix.

Let me hear your thoughts. Which hypothetical would you use? Who would you re-sign? What positions (and maybe even who, specifically) would you target in the draft? After seeing a more comprehensive look at the cap figures, do you think signing Carr would’ve been more trouble than it was worth? Are you still frustrated about this year’s available cap space, even after seeing situations in which it might be put to better use next year? Do you feel a different QB now would be worth the cost elsewhere?

Let me hear it all; I’m curious as to what options my fellow Addicts think would be possible in terms of player personnel moves intended to make the 2013 Chiefs a more competitive team. Despite being mostly realistic, I was admittedly a little pie-in-the-sky with my hopes of drafting both Geno and Klein; feel free to do similarly (but let’s try to not go too extreme into complete delusion, as euphoric as it might be, and keep it more in the realm of realism and where we think our Chiefs might be headed).

Sound off, Addicts!

It’s been a rough week for the Kansas City Chiefs and their fans. That is also probably the understatement of the week. Negative attitudes are at a high, and there are so many things at work that it’s difficult to sort things through and address things equally and/or fairly. But here’s my perspective on the varying issues, maybe you’ll agree, maybe you’ll disagree, but hopefully I can bring a few things to light which may have previously gone unconsidered. Some of what I say will be supported by facts, some by speculation in the absence of publicly available facts (such as Pioli’s “master plan”, assuming he has one), but the main intent is to present information or perspective that may not be currently represented (or is, at least, underrepresented). As some (if not most… if not all) of these views are likely to be unpopular or underrepresented, I’m prepared for a hailstorm of comments to the contrary. In the interests of perpetuating a well-reasoned, well-thought-out discourse, I kindly request such comments remain cordial.

Chiefs Ownership

Though owned by the Lamar Hunt family, through Hunt Sports Group, through Unity Hunt LLC, when one thinks of Kansas City Chiefs ownership, one thinks of the family-elected CEO and Chairman Clark Hunt. Simply saying the name “Clark Hunt” will send chills down a large number of Chiefs’ fans spines.

Clark Hunt has been associated with cheapness, caring more about the bottom dollar than team success/glory, and caring less about the Kansas City fanbase and community. That he lives in Dallas, TX is usually a shot taken by fans and media as indication of his lack of caring for the fanbase and community, and that cap availability numbers inaccurately represent how much a team is spending on its players have given him the label of being cheap.

I do not agree with a lot of the negativity surrounding Clark Hunt. For those of you who read my  article two weeks ago, you should know by now that the Kansas City Chiefs have not been cheap in their player spending, having amassed the highest paid team in the NFL this season according to salary cap figures. If you did not read that article, it may be more conducive to your fair assessment of Clark Hunt to do so now. The article provides insight into team spending for all NFL teams and how certain aspects of salary cap management function. To summarize the article for the sake of expedience, Clark Hunt isn’t being cheap on the player spending. This also feeds into how much Clark Hunt cares about the bottom dollar. Though I’m sure the Hunt family’s business interests in the Chiefs would keep them from wanting the organization to start functioning in the red, the same could be said of any business’s or organization’s owner(s) ever. Something can only be supported for so long when it’s not earning revenues equal to or greater than its expenses. That’s just basic economics.

In regards to his consideration for the fanbase and for the Kansas City community, more consideration is being given than the Hunt family has been commonly assessed. One of the chief complaints is that the on-the-field product is not equating to what a lot of Chiefs fans consider to be fair prices for stadium attendance. They don’t feel they’re getting the bang for their buck; a sentiment that is amplified in rough economic times where how one spends what money one has is greatly scrutinized by the spender. So, how does the Chiefs’ gameday experience stack up against the 31 NFL teams? Every year Team Marketing Report in Chicago, IL researches this very question. Here is a chart of the average ticket prices for a fan to attend a game at each of the NFL stadiums; it should be noted the cost and quantity of premium seating is not included in these averages:

The average NFL ticket price is reported as $78.38, well above what the average ticket price to Arrowhead costs. Even factoring out the five highest ticket prices (all above $100) the average ticket price for the 27 lowest price teams is $71.84, still firmly above the Arrowhead average. What may be of additional interest is that Team Marketing Report also tracks the percentage changes in ticket prices for each NFL team. TMR determined that the average NFL ticket price has increased by 2.5% compared to last season. Fifteen NFL teams saw no change in their ticket prices. Of the remaining seventeen teams nine increased ticket prices [the lowest being the Seahawks by 1%, the highest being the Bears by 9.2%], and six lowered ticket prices. The Kansas City Chiefs are not only counted among the six NFL teams that lowered ticket prices, but KC decided to decrease their prices by the second-most percentage* [2.6%]. As part of their report, TMR provided the NFL average cost dating back to the 2007 season; even going back that far, the current Chiefs’ pricing does not meet or exceed the league average.

*Only the Bengals decreased their ticket prices by a greater percentage[4.2%]; however TMR’s research showed that, of the six clubs that decided to decrease ticket prices, the Bengals were one of two clubs that decided to lower ticket prices following lower fan attendance during the 2011 season; the second team being the Bills.

TMR also researched the average premium ticket costs and the cost of beer, soft drinks, hot dogs, parking, programs and caps as part of their study. Their figures on beer and soft drinks are based on the smallest sizes available at each stadium, and their figures on caps are based on the least expensive, adult-size adjustable caps at each stadium. In these categories, the Kansas City Chiefs exceed the league average in only two of them: 1) Hot Dogs – in excess of 66 cents, and 2) Average Premium Ticket costs in excess of $26.30.

As part of their report TMR created a cost index comprised of the costs of four average-price tickets, two small beers, four small soft drinks, four regular-size hot dogs, parking for one car, two game programs and two of the least expensive, adult-size adjustable caps. The reported cost index for such a gameday experience for each team is as follows:

As can be seen, the Chiefs rank as the fourth cheapest team in terms of the cost index. TMR determined that the average NFL cost index has increased by 3.9% compared to last season. Only two NFL teams saw no change in their cost index. Of the remaining thirty teams twenty-six saw an increase in cost index [the lowest increase being the Cardinals by 0.3%, the highest being the Bears by 16.3%], and four saw decreases in their cost index. The Kansas City Chiefs are not only counted among the four NFL teams that lowered the overall cost of an average gameday experience, but KC decreased their prices by the second-most percentage [1.6%] with only the Jets showing a greater decrease [1.9%].

So though some, including The Arrowhead Adventurer, may not care for certain organization initiatives, such as the switch to paperless tickets (thereby depriving fans of the memento of ticket stubs), savings are being passed onto the fans by making such changes (I, for one, always tended to rip/disfigure ticket stubs from any events I’ve attended and, as a result, do not partake in that particular keepsake practice… as such, I’d personally prefer more efficient line movement).

Does this forgive the disparity between on-the-field product and the associated costs? Not incredibly. We’d still all like to see the Chiefs be more competitive and in championship contention; an increase in quality without an increase in cost. But at least you’ve been afforded the opportunity to see what other teams’ fans are paying out on gameday, and I think we can all agree that being a Jets fan has to suck considerably more by a quality to cost comparison.

As for the Hunt family living in Dallas, this is the way it’s always been. Lamar Hunt’s ability to finance a football team came from the wealth earned by his father, H.L. Hunt, in conjunction with Hunt Oil. Though Lamar Hunt’s branch of the Hunt family tree no longer holds a stake in Hunt Oil, there are many other business ventures they do own a stake in which are, for the most part, based in Dallas. In the early days, when the Dallas Cowboys (who at the time were much less successful than the Dallas Texans) started taking attention away from Lamar Hunt’s beloved football team, and he resigned to the fact that sentiment was not enough to continue functioning in Dallas when the previous three seasons found the organization in the red, he sought to move that team to a city that would give a damn. The speculated options at the time were for a move to be made to either Oakland or Kansas City. After what was described as a “cloak-and-dagger” affair,  Kansas City’s mayor and Hunt agreed to stage a season ticket run to determine if the new city would be devoted enough to the sport to garner the team with the attention Lamar felt it deserved. Obviously Kansas City met Lamar Hunt’s expectations as we know that he moved the team there; however, what may not be known is that Kansas City fell far short of the set season ticket goal (25,000 tickets) in that they only sold tickets in the 13,000-14,000 tickets by the given deadline. Lamar still felt that the city showed enough devotion and passion (despite not meeting the ticket sales threshold) that he decided to move the Texans to Kansas City.

Nowhere is it mentioned or even suggested that Lamar Hunt agreed to pull up his family’s stakes to move to Kansas City. A lot of tradition and business interests already existed in Dallas for that to have been part of the deal. That same family tradition continues to this day. The Chiefs are but a part of Hunt Sports Inc., and Hunt Sports Inc. is but a part of Unity Hunt LLC. To expect numerous businesses, and a family’s tradition, to be uprooted for the sake of one of those business ventures (though the Kansas City Chiefs are the most recognizable) is asking a lot, and probably too much

Does this mean that the Hunts and the Chiefs don’t care about Kansas City? Not in the least. By my count the Hunts through the Kansas City Chiefs have 15 steady community service programs devoted to helping various aspects of the Greater Kansas City Community. Players are encouraged to actively participate in giving back to the community. And new initiatives such as the Chiefs partnership with the University of Kansas Medical School are geared towards ultimately helping the Kansas City community as a whole. These are not the actions of an ownership that doesn’t care about its fans or its team’s city’s citizens. In fact, their devotion to the community is a large part of why I am of a fan of the organization and have remained a fan through the tougher years; they may not always win (or even be competitive) but the organization’s devotion to contribute beyond what the game dictates is, by my estimation, admirable and should not be diminished by how they play 16 days a year.

Also, when it was obvious things were not progressing under Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards, Clark Hunt made a move to obtain one of the most decorated executives in the football industry, and spared no expense to bring him in to help the franchise (something an owner that doesn’t care wouldn’t do), which brings us to:

Chiefs Management

I don’t know what to think about Pioli. On the one hand Kent Babb has painted a pretty bad picture of Pioli. On the other hand, Babb also neglected to look into team finances and painted the Hunts as cheap on players though they appear to be anything but*, and generated negativity on that front where negativity wasn’t due.

Aside: I’m still astounded by that one. I’m a legal assistant in Pennsylvania, devoting nearly 60 hours a week towards my day job with a wife and 2-year-old daughter also garnering my attention, and I was still able to do more thorough research on that front (cross-checking my findings across many independent sources with no team affiliation for slant) and reported this as part of my contribution to this website. It was Kent Babb’s day job to do such things for which I’m sure he got amply paid, and he couldn’t do that much??? I guess I’m saying I’ve re-read Babb’s articles with a grain of salt as I am not satisfied with his research abilities (or lack thereof).

In Michael Holley’s book “War Room”, it is indicated (and I’m paraphrasing here) that when Pioli arrived in Kansas City, the Chiefs staff and scouts were complacent and unmotivated, which (by that point in the book) were distinguished as work habits in conflict with Pioli’s own work ethic. Holley (in juxtaposition to Babb) painted Pioli as a hard worker who would sooner have his work product exceed his paycheck than his paycheck exceed his work product.

If that is his work ethic, and the incumbent staff did not put their hearts into their jobs and strive towards the goal of making the Chiefs organization a championship product, I can understand the turnover ratio. There are no salary cap concerns in the front office; severance packages maybe (and they could be pillaging Hunt’s pockets for all we know), but not a set number that the organization may not exceed in accounting terms. If these people were not earning their paychecks (admittedly by Pioli’s standards), then I can understand Pioli taking swift action in terminating them and bringing in new people. I can even understand him bringing in people he knew from his time with the Patriots (as he likely had previous knowledge of these individuals’ work ethics, knowledge and talents).

The desire to have people who work for you do their damnedest and take more pride in doing their work in excess of expectations rather than taking the mentality of “I’m doing just as much as I think my pay warrants” (such people usually overestimating how much pay they’ve ‘earned’ through the work they’ve actually done) is also something I can understand, and would explain the so-called “wire-tapping”. I work for government, we have the same systems in check. E-mail, phone logs, etc. are monitored to determine how much company time the worker is spending on personal business (i.e. how much non-work they’re performing during hours they’re getting paid for). It isn’t incredibly shocking that a multi-million dollar business would partake in such monitoring. Again, if the workers were as complacent as Michael Holley indicated, it may be of utmost importance to changing the culture of football operations from people who care more for how much they could soak the organization for than how much they could contribute to the organization’s success.

If Pioli (or any other GM that could’ve been, or could still be, brought in) wanted to change a complacent culture satisfied with doing the bare minimum and having little interest in a championship that was gained by more than luck (if hard work was the alternative), I think we’d all be supportive of that change.

That being said, I doubt the candy wrapper story was made up, to which I can only say this: I can understand wondering why the hell you’re paying maintenance to do a job they’re obviously not doing (the wrapper was sitting for about a week after all… which by my count is at least 4 days too long, even if they were understaffed or only cleaned two to three days a week), but the taking of the wrapper as evidence makes the whole incident automatically extreme (and sounds on par with Mitch Hedberg’s “donut receipt” joke). That definitely could’ve been handled a lot better.

As far as his plans for rebuilding and his apparent secrecy of these plans are concerned, it’s frustrating as hell only being able to speculate what his intentions are/were. I, for one, believe (or maybe just really hope) that the plan was/is to build up the supporting cast first and drop in the intended franchise QB last. This would help prevent “David Carr Syndrome” or other 1^st round busts such as Brady Quinn was in Cleveland. Instead of custom building an entire team to one guy’s talents (thereby making it more difficult should that one guy go down), it would entail building a talented team and allowing the last guy (QB) to adjust to the talents around him (thereby making it less disastrous should that one guy go down temporarily). To get the QB first and build the team around him is akin to making the QB the entire foundation’s cornerstone. If it’s later learned that that cornerstone is not of the quality it was believed to be, the building stands to get irreparably damaged. To get the QB last is akin to building a quality structure first and using the QB as the capstone. If the capstone is of lesser quality than was expected, so what? It’s less damaging to the structure to replace a damaged capstone than to replace a damaged cornerstone. The downside is that, as fans, we don’t know if this is the plan until it happens. It could very well be. It could very well be that Cassel was perceived to be the guy for real (rather than a QB deemed adequate to man the helm while the rebuilding took place… I guess in my metaphor “the scaffolding”). Will Pioli say? No.

Which brings us to the secrecy. I can understand this to an extent. Part of the existence of a salary cap in the NFL is to promote competition and to provide no team with an unfair competitive advantage due to finances. But each team wants a competitive edge to build the strongest team possible within the restrictions of these limited resources. Kansas City is not a large market, so the competitive edge of “come here, we’ll make you famous” isn’t much of one for Chiefs execs (past, current or foreseeable future). Fan loyalty can help lure talent, but that’s more our thing than a FO thing. The Chiefs don’t have overwhelming, modern day championship prestige (yet). So what competitive edges can there be? I would reason that not letting your competition know your goals heading into deals would prove to be a great advantage. If everyone expected KC to draft a QB in the first round of next year’s draft (let’s say they finished with a pick lower than No. 1 Overall), and a move was made to jockey the team in the position to draft the QB of their choice, how much greater would the trade cost be knowing that the team’s intent is to draft a team’s most valuable asset (QB)? If, however, you lowered your trade partner’s expectations to believe that your intent is in the interest of drafting a lesser position player, that deal will likely become less costly (meaning that your own team can hold onto more assets, be it player, asset, or money to re-invest in another portion of the team). It’s a competitive edge built on manipulating others’ speculation of your intents, and there may be considerable success in doing so; unfortunately, the decision to put your competitor’s speculation in doubt also casts doubt within your fanbase’s speculation.

As for owning up to his mistakes, I’ll go back to Babb and the salary cap situation: Babb (local media) fabricated a negative misconception of something the Chiefs were actually doing well and it spread like a fire causing a wave of damage in its wake. That was with bad knowledge of a situation the team was actually doing pretty well. What could be expected of this same local media if Pioli admitted to an actual error? Holy bejeezus, that would not end well.

Overall, I can appreciate wanting personnel dedicated to making the franchise a perennial contender, and I can understand building the supportive components of a team up first before dropping in the franchise QB. It’s not the broad goals behind (what I think is) Pioli’s rebuilding plan I question, so much as Pioli’s execution of this plan. Keep the ideology, but do better at enacting the plan (or, Clark, find someone else who can).

Eric Winston

Spoke in a moment of passion. While morally justified in sentiment, he lacked the censorship to scope his claims down to only indicate the fans that partook in the behavior. CBA dictates that players are open to media. He spoke to media in conjunction with this clause. So, I really can’t begrudge him the action of speaking with the media.

I’ve been saying for weeks that negativity from fans affects the players more than fans might think. After weeks of negativity, and the greetings of a negative banner on Sunday, he construed some cheers as being in the morally negative bent. Looking through comments on various sites pertaining to this issue, it’s easy to find people admittedly partaking in this deplorable behavior (cheering a player getting injured), so Winston’s perception of the intent behind some of these cheers does hold some merit.

There is some understandable and justifiable betrayal felt on behalf of the fans (at least the portions whom, in a moment of passion, Winston lumped in with the bad ones), but attempting to look at thing empathetically from Winston’s point of view, the portion of fans that cheered Cassel’s injury are a part of the same fanbase whose overwhelming response to his FA visit convinced him to stop seeking potentially greater fortune, and a greater media market, elsewhere and to settle for less money if it meant great fans. He made a major life choice based on how great the fanbase presented itself to him, and in short time saw just how negative the fanbase/local media could get [the local media is crawling with negativity, fans (though not all) have been acting out in negative fashions for weeks (even if just verbally), and it culminated with a portion of those fans doing something so deplorable and anti-supportive of the players]. Given that consideration, I wouldn’t be surprised if Winston felt a little bit of betrayal, too.

Ultimately my point on this is that fan attitude does affect player attitude, and this whole fiasco is a case in point.

Fans who cheered Cassel’s injury

Winston was correct in stating that this is not the Roman Coliseum and the players are not gladiators.

For those that use the flawed logic that NFL stadiums are constructed in the image of the Roman Coliseum so football is like the modern equivalent, you should probably know that the architectural design of NFL stadiums is not intended as an allegory to ancient Rome. The Romans designed the Coliseum as they did because it architecturally allowed for greater seating capacity. The properties of such design haven’t changed, and this is why stadiums are made in such a fashion. Incidentally, uncomfortable-as-all-get-out bleacher seating may also be used to accommodate more people. It’s an attendance maximization thing, not a throwback to days of yore.

For those that use the logic that “it’s okay to cheer MMA and boxing, so why not a football player’s injury?”, you should probably know that the rules are different going into each contest. Beating the crap out of each other is an integral part of MMA and boxing matches, and the participants willingly submit themselves to such punishment. Incidentally, it’s not unheard of for professionals in these sports to schedule matches several months apart to accommodate for the fact that they’re going to get brutalized and need copious amounts of time to recover in between bouts. Injuries in football, on the other hand, are incidental to the sport (not integral) and any action done by a player to intentionally injure another (or even that increase the odds of injury, such as helmet-to-helmet shots) are generally frowned upon. Remember that whole Bounty scandal thing? Yeah, the main part of that was the targeting of players for the purpose of injury (that money may or may not have been put towards these goals is secondary). Remember all those fines players accrue for helmet-to-helmet hits? Yeah, that’s what those are about, too.

There’s no denying that big hits or hard hits get a viewer’s adrenaline going, or that it is pants-crappingly awesome to see a player pop back up from such hits like they’re no big deal. But sometimes those players don’t bounce back up, and that’s when it’s time for humanity to kick back in. Maybe if the injury is a more minor one (ankle sprain, broken finger, etc.) to an opponent’s superstar, you can thank your lucky stars that your team got a reprieve from his awesomeness for the rest of the game, but when you get into potentially life-altering injuries such as concussions, ACL tears and the ilk, it’s time to dial it down.

To those of you convinced that Cassel’s injury is the only thing that would take him out of the line-up and that your voice isn’t being heard, you may be right, you may not be right. Maybe Cassel really was the best QB on the squad (I just vomited in my mouth a little). That being said, I personally didn’t care for the public display of discord by use of a banner flying over Arrowhead; such displays have the potential to place the fanbase as a whole in a bad light. That being said, I respect that you care so much about your team to spend extra money for such a display,

I would suggest and alternative: it may go against younger generations’ grain to not make public statements (ala Facebook or Twitter), but there’s a thing called letter writing that involves a pen and paper which would be more low key (as in less inflammatory to the fanbase) and cheaper, too. I’m in no way condoning sending threatening letters to One Arrowhead Drive (that’s kind of illegal), but sending letters highlighting your devotion to the team and expressing your disapproval of certain things that are being done which you don’t agree with (preferably with well-reasoned arguments, as you’d be taken more seriously) might be much more effective. As I write this, it occurs to me that Lamar Hunt was fond of conducting business via letter writing (even as technology advanced into allowing more instant communications), so to do so as a fanbase may very well strike a personal chord within the Hunt family as it pertains to fan concerns. The least that could be expected? Solid evidence of fans’ concerns that can’t be as easily discarded and ignored as pressing a “Trash” button in e-mail. Pioli flipped over a candy wrapper, how much attention do you think will be paid to stacks of letters filling up the joint?

Hopefully some of what I said has shed new light on certain things. Again, some of it is speculation, so my guess is as good as yours, but hopefully you have gotten to considering alternative intents. Tune in next week when I’ll be looking forward to 2013’s expected cap hits/player personnel moves. As always, Go Chiefs!!!

Following a disappointing loss at home to the San Diego Chargers, the Chiefs will stay inKansas City again this Sunday, this time to square off against the Baltimore Ravens. Needless to say, with the way the Chiefs have been playing thus far, this game is likely an easy write-off for most Kansas City fans, but despite this (and after a two week hiatus), I’ve decided to soldier on in the Know Your Enemy series.

Offense

The Baltimore Ravens are currently ranked 5^th in the NFL for scoring on the season, and are performing so well that some analysts and pundits have opined that the Ravens’ offensive performances have actually been exceeding its defensive performances (compared to the previous decade or so of being an indisputably defensive juggernaut).

The Ravens’ offense is steered by QB Joe Flacco. Flacco made some noise over the offseason, proclaiming himself as an “elite quarterback.” Most people chuckled to themselves upon hearing this, but he has put in a commendable season thus far. While I am not willing to label him as elite quite yet, Flacco has played with poise and engineered one fourth-quarter comeback on the year thus far (Week 3’s controversial win over the New England Patriots). In four games, Flacco has completed 63.5% of his passes for 1,269 YDs and 7 TDs, good for a passer rating of 95.8.

But what is a QB without a few good targets to throw to? Though I would not put the Ravens receivers on par with the Falcons receivers (Roddy, Julio, and Gonzo) they may well have the same amount of talent (or slightly more) spread across five players in WRs Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Jacoby Jones, and TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. The most notable of these five are Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta.

Though largely ineffective in last week’s game, Pitta has 18 catches for 188 YDs and 2 TDs on the season and appears to be a valuable target for Flacco in the red zone. Though not receiving quite the targets that Pitta is receiving, Ed Dickson also can contribute quite a bit at TE when called upon and should be perceived as something of a threat.

Meanwhile, Torrey Smith is looking to have a breakout year, having already registered 16 catches for 332 YDs and 3 TDs on the season. Some in-game commentators have sounded shocked by Torrey Smith’s on field production; however, I personally don’t find this too shocking considering that he put up pretty decent stats last season (50 catches for 841 YDs and 7 TDs) despite both having his rookie preseason shortened by the lockout and playing a significant chunk of the season with a hamstring injury.

Between Anquan Boldin and Jacoby Jones, you might think that Boldin is the bigger threat, which he may well be becoming, but up until last week Boldin has been relatively disappointing this season, not getting much separation (and, consequently, targets) during the first three games. No, after Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta, Jacoby Jones looks to be the next biggest receiving threat on this Ravens offense. Having watched all of the Ravens’ games this season, I swear Jacoby Jones seems to be good for two to three HUGE catches per game thus far. Even if Jones doesn’t appear to be much of a factor during the first three quarters of the game, the Chiefs defense should not sleep on him because he has been showing week in and week out that he can be relied upon to make crucial, fourth quarter catches even if they’re among his only targets of the game.

As for the Ravens backfield, Ray Rice continues to impress both on ground and through the air. If Flacco and the passing offense didn’t step up their game this year, you might hear a lot more chatter about Rice. Instead, it seems like Rice’s consistently great play is so expected that the passing game is the new hot thing to talk about. Rice also factors into the passing game receiving and is currently topping the Ravens charts with the most receptions (though with, understandably, less yardage given where his routes take him).

As for their offensive line, the Ravens could be doing a little better. C Matt Birk is 36 years old, and while he’s still an excellent center, a lot of his excellence comes from his knowledge of the game as his physical abilities are in decline, and LT Michael Oher of “The Blind Side” fame is not quite as good on the blind side as you’d expect him to be. I know several Ravens fans griping about wanting the team to move him back to RT where he fares better and trying again on the drafting a LT front. RT Kelechi Osemele is a rookie, LG Ramon Harewood is in his second year (though it is his first year playing in games), and RG Marshall Yanda is in his fifth.season. Yanda has been elected to the Pro Bowl once and may be Baltimore’s best OL at the moment in terms of age, position and ability.

Defense

As previously stated, the Ravens defense is starting to get overshadowed by their offense; however, this does not mean their defense is bad or even average. As much as the Ravens defense has been underperforming compared to last year (when they were No. 2 Defense overall), they are still a top ten defense (coming in at No. 10 right now).

In case you’ve been living under a rock and haven’t heard, the Ravens defense is anchored by timeless players MLB Ray Lewis and S Ed Reed. Though the good news is that these guys are a year older and a bit more of their age is showing, the bad news is (that like Tony Gonzalez) even a slightly less physically capable Lewis and Reed can still be counted among the elite at their positions. Also showing age is NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu who is actually starting to show greater signs of wear.

Besides Reed and Lewis,Baltimore’s next two greatest defenders are DE Haloti Ngata and S Bernard Pollard. You probably know Pollard from such KC snafus as “letting go of Bernard Pollard.” And if you don’t know who Ngata is or what he is capable of, you really should consider just getting rid of that aforementioned rock you’ve been living under.

One positive about facing the Ravens current defense is that they are fronting some lesser experienced players right now. The DE opposite Haloti Ngata is Pernell McPhee, a fifth round draft choice by the Ravens taken in last year’s draft. Due to the loss of LB Terrell Suggs to injury and the loss of LB Jarret Johnson to free agency, the Ravens have been forced to play with rookie Courtney Upshaw and 3^rd year player Paul Kruger at OLB and second year player Albert McClellan at MLB..

CBs Lardarius Webb and Cary Williams flesh out the starting defense, and though capable backs, are overshadowed by the stellar safety play.

Special Teams

Baltimore’s kick returner duties are handled by rookie WR Deonte Thompson and the Punt Returner duties are handled by Jacoby Jones. The Ravens’ kick return game is currently slightly better than the Chiefs’, and their punt return game is slightly worse.

Both teams’ kickers and punters look to be about a wash thus far this season, with Ravens P Sam Koch posting similar stats to Colquitt, and rookie K Justin Tucker posting comparable stats to Succop. Justin Tucker replaces Billy Cundiff at kicker after Cundiff messed up what should have been an easy kick last season in the AFC championship which kept the Ravens from the Super Bowl. It is yet to be seen if Tucker can make such clutch kicks himself, with his only real opportunity to do so this season being during the Ravens win against the Patriots in Week 3. In the last seconds of the game, Tucker shanked a FG far right of center, but luckily it was high enough to go over the top of the goalpost rather than banking off the goal post and according to the NFL Rule Book over the post counts as between the posts and such a play is non-reviewable as only the official directly underneath the post was in any position to make the call. Whether this kick was Tucker experiencing very good luck masking non-clutch play, or whether he experienced bad (but not quite bad enough) luck to turn what would normally be a clutch kick into a near miss is anyone’s guess at this point. If the game’s on the line and the ball isn’t within the 25 yard line, I’d probably be holding my breath were I a Ravens fan until enough time and opportunity passes to determine whether or not my kicker could hit a clutch kick.

_______

As a Chiefs fan, it is admittedly hard to go into this game with a positive outlook. If the Chiefs offense (and particularly Cassel) can play turnover-free football, there might be a fighting chance. And I don’t mean a zeroed out turnover differential where a Cassel INT is canceled out by the defense forcing a turnover. This offense, under Cassel, is likely to not be mentally tough enough to put up with one more turnover, even if it’s made up for by the defense later in the game.

But I will remain positive going into this game for one major reason: negativity is not helping this franchise succeed, and may very well be helping to make it worse.

A scientific study performed at California State University back in 2009 looked into what causes “choke” and “clutch” performances. In a nutshell, the study determined that when an individual first learns a skill, they learn it explicitly; the thought process is methodical, and the motion mechanical (slower and more awkward). After time and practice, these skills develop into becoming implicitly performed, quickly and smoothly. In the realm of pro sports, quick and smooth action tends to be paramount to success (if you telegraph a decision by going about it slower in thought and execution, bad stuff tends to happen). In studying what causes some people to choke and some to be clutch, it was determined that, as pressure to succeed gets higher, how the individual copes with the pressure has a lot to do with how they fare overall. The “chokers” allow the pressure of the situation to seep into their consciousness, they get so concerned with the implications of how they’ll perform their task that they’ll revert back to thinking of the task explicitly; their actions get slow and choppy and they tend to fail (which makes sense since they’ve basically reverted back to how they performed the task when they first learned, a/k/a when they sucked most at the task). Those capable of putting the gravity of the situation out of mind are more likely to be able to perform the task implicitly and, having refined thought and movement, are much more likely to succeed (“be clutch”).

Assuming the findings of this study are true (and I’m apt to believe them as they make perfect sense to me), being demonstratively loud and negative towards people you want to succeed appears to be counteractive to the results you want. Pressure to perform is increased, and the more pressure that mounts, the more likely the individual(s) will perform even poorer. If negativity is only going to exacerbate the problems, I’m not gonna be a part of that.

All this being said, do what you like in showing either your support or dissent, but if you do approach the situation negatively, don’t be the least bit surprised if your actions garner negative results; and not just negative results in the form of current players’ performances, but negative results in the form of luring talented people to the team to perpetuate an upgrade. If Pioli does get fired, Double D may be right in predicting Marty to be his successor; no good person without pre-existing ties to this franchise will likely want to step into such a volatile and hostile environment.

Here’s hoping for a win on Sunday. Go Chiefs.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Well, Chiefs fans, for those of you who read my article last week, you should’ve walked away knowing a little bit more about salary cap management. You may or may not have jumped to my rallying cry to show the player and team some love, and let the NFL world know that when they go up against the Chiefs they’re not just going up against the players and coaches, they’re going up against every Chiefs fan that bleeds red and gold.

Whether you did or not certainly depends on the individual. Some of you may be too disgusted by Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli’s management of your beloved Chiefs to look past your perception of them and root for the players. After all, Hunt and Pioli are cheapskates (to use the nicer term), right?

Well, according to Spotrac.com, it appears that, of the 32 NFL teams, the Kansas City Chiefs are spending the most cap dollars of any team on active player contracts in 2012.

I’ll wait for you to seek medical attention for your broken jaw; mine slammed pretty hard off of my desk, too…

That was not a misprint: the Kansas City Chiefs, owned by Clark Hunt and family, managed by Scott Pioli, appear to be paying the most of any team on active player contracts this season. Take a look for yourself:

Now, I want to be clear. Spending “the most cap dollars… on active player contracts” does not necessarily mean that the Kansas City Chiefs are using/accounting-for the most cap dollars overall, it means that they’re paying the most cap money towards players currently on the team.

What does that mean?

Though most news outlets will report cap space availability for teams, this is a new day and age, and comes with it a new CBA, wherein available cap space money can be rolled into the next year without the need for teams to exploit loopholes*. This will affect how much cap dollars a team can spend on its players in a given season. This can really alter each team’s cap room which, in turn, will make cap space availability numbers a little less useful without context.

*It used to be that NLTBEs were accounted into the cap during the season they were set, and were the only cap dollars that could be rolled over, provided the player the NLTBE was assigned to didn’t earn it. So to rollover remaining cap monies, teams could make a ridiculous NLTBE late in the season that had no way of happening, say setting an NLTBE in Week 15 that would have your 3^rd string QB receiving all remaining cap dollars if he could throw 10 TDs by the end of the season. He, of course, wouldn’t, but since the NLTBE was accounted for, but not met, the money could be rolled over into the next season. The new CBA made adjustments to this by just letting teams rollover cap dollars without the need for trickery, and having NLTBEs count against the next season’s cap should they be met.

Ex: Let’s say Team A rolls over $1 million from last year’s season into this year’s season, and Team B rolls over $20 million. If after spending, both teams find themselves with a cap availability of $1 million, it won’t be because both teams spent the same amount of money. Rather, Team B would’ve spent more money as it spent both the league defined cap, plus $19 million of the $20 million it rolled over; whereas Team A would’ve only spent the league defined cap, and just didn’t touch its rollover.

But even that is only a portion of how people can confuse salary cap availability with money spent by the club on its active players’ contracts. In the NFL’s salary accounting policies and procedures, there is a certain thing that negatively impacts a team’s salary cap, that doesn’t seem to get a lot of media attention: dead money.

What is dead money? (you ask because you don’t use contractions)

Dead money is generated when a player leaves a team (usually by being cut, but sometimes through retirement or a trade*) and certain parts of their contracts were either guaranteed or solely within the club’s responsibility to pay (e.g. signing bonus). It gets its name because, even though the player is no longer with the team, and therefore doing the team no good, the money must be absorbed and paid for by the club, and it does cause a cap hit. So any dead money that exists keeps a club from spending that much more money on players who are (or can be) signed to the 53-man roster.

*For those left wondering, whether you thought to ask yourself or not, players willfully leaving, or willfully being allowed to leave,  via FA don’t generate dead money, as their contract would’ve been fully satisfied, and there’d be no money left unpaid for a team to absorb.

Ex: Team A and Team B each have a salary cap of $100 million (for the purposes of this example there were no rollovers). Team A has dead money to the tune of $10 million. Team B has dead money to the tune of $2 million. After spending the money on this year’s team, it’s reported that Team A has $1 million in cap availability and Team B has $5 million in camp availability. At face value, and since availability gets reported much more heavily than dead money figures, it appears that Team A is spending more money on their current team than Team B. This is an incorrect assumption. After deducting each team’s dead money from their initial cap, Team A had $90 million to spend for the year, and Team B had $98 million. So though Team A appears on the surface to have spent more money on current player contracts (what with $1 million left compared to Team B’s $5 million left) doing the math shows that Team A has actually only spent $89 million on this year’s roster [$100 million (cap) - $10 million (dead money) - $1 million (available money)]; whereas Team B has actually spent the greater sum having devoted $93 million cap dollars on this year’s roster [$100 million - $2 million - $5 million].

Let’s take a look at each team’s dead money figures:

It should be noted that $460,000-520,000 in dead money is pretty well par for the course for any team in a given year, just due to cuts to fringe players. Here you’ll see the Chiefs have the 7^th least amount of dead money affecting this season’s cap with $2,117,187. Interestingly enough, Demorrio Williams accounts for $1.6 million of this figure, with the remaining $517,187 being spread between 7 different (former) players with Gabe Miller accounting for the second highest figure ($148,875) and Brandon Bair, the least ($4,666).

Another pitfall in using cap availability in judging how much a team is spending on its players’ contracts is, as I touched on last week, that LTBE goals will, for accounting purposes, appear as cap hits on the current season’s salary cap, but whether or not players will earn this/these goal(s) is, of course, not a guarantee until it happens.

So to a common observer who a) doesn’t consider how rollovers affect the cap, b) doesn’t consider dead money and c) doesn’t consider how things such as LTBEs must be taken into account, it’s a quick and easy jump to assume that the more cap space a team has available, the less money that team is spending on its current team. This is the Kansas City Chiefs’ current plight. Fans see that $14.5 million in cap space is remaining, the third most in the league, and assume that Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli are cheap bastards (to use the less nice term). Many Chiefs fans are furious that they’re not spending more. However, as stated at the beginning, of all 32 teams, the Kansas City Chiefs appear to be spending the most cap money this season towards active player contracts.

But how can that be? Wasn’t it just reported back in February that the Chiefs had $63 million in cap space remaining?

At the time that that report was released a few things were taken into account that increased that figure, while several things were not taken into account that would lower that number. Basically, the reported figure was artificially larger than it actually was.

Namely, the $63 million figure included the $24 million (approx.) that the Chiefs rolled over from last season*, but it did not include contract escalators (which, by the way, tend to be non-negotiable devices built into contracts) which amounted to approximately $18 million. Nor did this figure include the money the team was required to pay out to players for NLTBEs offered to them and achieved during the 2011 season and estimated to be about $5 million. Nor did it include money for RFA Tenders (which really wound up just being Jovan Belcher’s for $1.9 million).

*The Chiefs announced through their official team site that they were rolling over $20 million; however sites such as NFL.com, ESPN & Spotrac reported the rollover as approximately $24 million. Given these sites reputability and independence from the organization, we’ll assume the higher number

After deducting the values that were not deducted prior to the report’s release, the Chiefs’ so-called available funds dip to about $38 million (a much more believable figure). Now deduct for Routt’s signing, Dwayne Bowe’s franchise tag and Jovan Belcher’s RFA Tender and we’re down to about $22 million, which is what was reported just before free agency.

Now deduct for the signings of Winston, Boss, Hillis, Quinn, and the rookie class, deduct for the re-signing of Travis Daniels, add money that was freed up through the restructuring of Tyson Jackson’s contract, deduct for Abram Elam and Edgar Jones, and we’re down to $16.5 million. As suggested in last week’s article, it is likely that the $2 million differential between this $16.5 million and the current $14.5 million is due to LTBEs being set for this season.

Okay, so now I see how they went from $63 million to $14.5 million, but if how much the Chiefs are paying on active player contracts is correct, it only appears to be about $8 million over the league defined cap… Pioli just did an interview a week or so ago where he said the Chiefs were spending about $20 million cash over the cap this season.

You are correct in your observation that the contracts amount to about $8 million over the league’s defined base cap. That being said, Scott Pioli is correct that the team is spending about $20 million cash over this same cap.

Alright, now you’re just $*%#@!# with me.

There is a difference between how much cap dollars a team spends in a given season, and how much “committed cash” it spends in a given season. While some things, such as base salary, workout bonuses, roster bonuses, etc., count equally towards both cap dollars and committed cash [Ex: $1 million base salary accounts for $1 million towards the cap and $1 million towards the cash], other things, such as signing bonuses and option bonuses, are accounted for differently.

Ex: Eric Winston signed a 4 year deal that comes with an $8.4 million signing bonus. The entirety of this signing bonus was given to him right away; however, it’s prorated over the course of the 4 year deal so that it hits the cap equally each contract year. So this particular deal is hitting the cap by $2.1 million this year, but hits the committed cash by $8.4 million this year.

Obviously, Winston’s contract isn’t the only contract lending to the difference in cap dollars and committed cash, but at least you can see how the difference comes about.

__________

So, are Pioli and Hunt cheap bastards? Looking at cap availability alone one would think “yes”; however, everything else seems to indicate otherwise. When the Chiefs announced the rollover of last year’s cap space into this season, Clark Hunt stated that the rollover money would be put to use in continuing to re-sign the Chiefs free agents, as well as to go out and sign some free agents from other teams.

The FO lived up to Clark’s word.

Beginning the 2011 season, the Chiefs had 27 players set to hit FA this past offseason. By controlling the player budget enough that Pioli had some idea of how much money could be rolled over, he was able to re-sign Hali and Flowers to extensions early on in the season, and re-signed Succop to an extension in December (and look how huge that turned out being this past weekend). The team also brought back Brandon Siler, Cory Greenwood, Jake O’Connell, Travis Daniels and Amon Gordon (with only Gordon not working out… by the way, no dead money was generated by Gordon’s short-lived contract). Bowe received the Franchise Tag and Jovan Belcher an RFA Tender which, though not as good as extensions, were at least enough to assure their return to the team (and had some other team picked up Bowe at the cost of 2- 1^st Round Picks, or Belcher for the cost of 1- 2^nd Round Pick, something tells me us fans could’ve lived with it). Of the 17 players that hit FA but were not retained, Carr and Orton are likely the only two to complain about. Six were contemplating retirement, four were just terrible, one couldn’t stay healthy with the Chiefs, and four were still perceived as desirable enough to be picked up. The Chiefs, in turn, picked up Routt, Winston, Boss, Hillis, Quinn, Abram Elam, and Edgar Jones as far as players on roster and hitting the cap go. They also picked up Kyle McCarthy, Martin Rucker and Jacques Reeves who all find themselves on IR and don’t count against the cap.

That’s a pretty good offseason. To be where they’re currently at cap-wise, but to have retained Carr, likely would’ve meant no Routt, no Boss and no Winston. To use more of the cap than is currently available (say by re-signing Carr but still signing Routt, Boss & Winston) means making a tougher time of re-signing the Chiefs pick of next seasons 17 scheduled free agents, and not having much money available to take advantage of other teams’ cap casualty cuts (i.e. next year’s Routts, Boss’s & Winstons).

Some of you might not like to hear it, or even want to accept it (even after all the work I just put in showing how they’re spending money and spending it wisely), but it appears the money isn’t being pocketed, and the current regime isn’t likely to end anytime soon. In fact, it looks like things are getting in order (non-Pioli-negotiated contracts are on the way out) and Pioli & Co. are just hitting their stride. But it should be a positive to know that Clark Hunt does care about the team’s success more than he cares about pocketing the money. Now if only the coaches and players can maximize their talents and do it on a consistent basis, we might just have ourselves a team worthy of championships…

Well, Addicts, if nothing else you’ve come away from this knowing more about your favorite NFL team. Maybe you’ve already given up too much hope to reverse the lynch mob, but the management seems to be giving all they can to the team and the fans; looks like it’s time for the team and the fans to reciprocate. While the team leaves it all out on the field on Sunday, why don’t we be there to back their efforts, and give Philip “Cry Me A” River(s) another miserable Arrowhead experience. GO CHIEFS!!!

This upcoming Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs head down to New Orleans to give the Saints a time of it. Given that the Saints have been in the national limelight for years (for both good and bad reasons), and that I haven’t been the only staff writer inspecting the upcoming opponent, I’ve decided to take a hiatus on Know Your Enemy this week and address another issue.

It has come to my attention that there are Chiefs fans out there complaining about the Chiefs cap. I don’t see a problem with it. I mean, scroll up and take a look at that bad boy.

Isn’t it great?

What human being could resist the urge to pounce on the debonair gentleman or courtly lady enlightened enough to don this sexy piece of Chiefs apparel? The wearer instantaneously lets others know that they’re not only intelligent, loyal and a humanitarian, but also that they have a keen fashion sense, all by sporting such an adornment on their crown. Heck, it might as well be a crown.

As for the complaints about cap room, unless your Mr. Moneybags and got a fitted cap, there should be a strap in the back you can adjust to tighten it up… Hold on a sec…

They meant salary cap?…

Are you sure???

Okayyyy. Luckily I know a thing or two about how that works.

Following the Falcons Week 1 aerial assault against the Chiefs’ lacking defense, it was clear to all that Kansas City’s CB depth, or lack thereof, should be an area of great concern (and after Sunday’s whomping by the Bills that concern probably extends to the entire defense). This observation was shortly followed by the announcement that the Chiefs still have $14.5 million in available salary cap space (misconstrued by some as being as high as $30 million). An ugly incident occurred through Twitter and Reddit, and even parties not directly involved in this exchange took to the Web to express their own displeasure over KC’s secondary issues and why it shouldn’t exist given the Chiefs’ available cap room; the common consensus being that Clark Hunt (and family) and Scott Pioli must be cheap bastards.

I can’t deny the Chiefs’ secondary concerns, and even wrote about this concern myself during the preseason. But I’m not sold on the salary cap being what it is as a matter of cheapness. No, I’m much more inclined to believe that the cap will be spent on players, just a little bit down the road and in such a way that the cap room currently looks deceptively large. I’ve already pondered that Pioli and the FO may want to roll the available cap into next season to help retain players such as Bowe, Albert and/or Dorsey and/or have cap space remaining to sign some bigger names entering free agency.

But another option exists. One that would pay the Chiefs’ current players more, but only if they can produce on the field. That option is the incentive bonus.

But isn’t that accounted for in the salary cap?

Glad you asked. There are two types of incentive bonuses: those Likely To Be Earned (LTBE), and those Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE). Only LTBEs are accounted for in the salary cap during the season they are expected to be earned. NLTBEs being what they are, not likely to be achieved, are not deducted from the cap in the season they are earned, but rather from the following season’s salary cap. This is where it might pay the Chiefs organization to carry extra money into the 2013 season.

Why take that precaution if the goals are not likely to be earned?

While the goals that are set are determined by the team, the nomenclature of whether such goal is likely or not likely to be earned is determined by league definition. Simplistically, an LTBE goal is one that was attained during the previous season and is therefore expected to be duplicated, whereas an NLTBE goal is a higher goal than was achieved in the previous season and is not considered to be expected to be met. Example: Dwayne Bowe had 5 TDs during the 2011 season. An LTBE goal for him this season would be to get 3 TDs; whereas an NLTBE goal would be 8 TDs (even though Bowe exceeded this goal in 2010).

So what happens if an LTBE goal or an NLTBE goal isn’t met?

If an LTBE goal isn’t met by season’s end, the money that was earmarked for that player/unit is released into the available cap space and may be rolled over into the next season. If an NLTBE goal isn’t met, it just doesn’t have an impact on the current, or next, season’s salary cap.

What kind of goals may these be?

The CBA identifies three categories of incentive goals: (1) Team Incentives, (2) Individual Incentives & (3) Honors and Recognized Media Incentives. Team Incentives and Individual Incentives can be made in most every major statistical category you can think of. Honors and Recognized Media Incentives pertain to the larger honors (Pro Bowl Selection, All-Pro Selection, etc.).

__________

On September 7^th, Pro Football Talk reported that the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million in available cap space. The latest report prior to this indicated that the Chiefs had approx. $16.5 million in available cap space. No player additions that would’ve affected the team’s accounting were made in the interim, so the safe bet is that the approx. $2 million differential comes from the making of LTBE goal(s). It should be noted that “win the division” is always considered, by definition, to be an LTBE, and it’s likely that such a goal accounts for some of this differential.

What isn’t known is how much of the remaining cap space is earmarked for the potential earning of NTLBEs. Again, the team’s or player’s performance from the previous season determines whether a goal is likely or not likely, and we can all agree that the 2011 season was disappointing. It wouldn’t take setting goals too high for them to be considered Not Likely To Be Earned. But such goals could include finishing with a winning record, making a deep playoff run, etc.

These are things that both the Chiefs organization as well as its fans want, and are within the potential of the team to earn. But paying the money upfront does not guarantee the player/unit/team will fulfill their potential. In fact, by setting things up so that the players only receive the money by earning it makes perfect sense. If the players earn the money, then great, it’ll mean the team has succeeded to a desirable level, the players will get the money they deserve, and, thanks to the cap management, the money can be paid out without putting the team in a compromising position that would require “cap casualty cuts” next season. If the players don’t produce, that’ll suck, but at least significant rollover cap funds will be available next season to help pull in free agents that may stand a greater chance of helping this team get to where it wants to be.

I know not having Brandon Carr sucks, especially considering the defensive failures of the first two games. But you know what else sucks? Cutting valuable players because you played fast and loose with your cap, and paying players a lot more than they’ll ever earn for the same reason.

More is going on behind the scene than meets the eye. For as much as Pioli gets demonized for this, that and the other thing, I’m not convinced that he’s deserving of such scorn. The way some people would spin it, every letdown the Chiefs experience, collectively or individually, is squarely on Pioli’s shoulders. But one person can’t control the actions of others. Limit their actions, maybe, but not control them. The coaches are not currently living up to their potential. Same with the players. Oh, they have shown at points in the past that they can perform much better than they have been; they just haven’t gotten a handle on it this season thus far. I’m not going to blame Pioli for these individuals’ failures. Their failures belong to them.

Now, I don’t profess to know what exactly is causing these failures. But I do know that I still love the Chiefs. And like with any loved one that makes a mistake, I’m not gonna go into a rage, verbally berate them and tell them to do better or else. I have been appalled at the amount of people that so quickly jumped to that reaction. Such actions have a way of demoralizing any person, and a lack of morale is the last thing this team needs right now. No, I’m gonna support my beloved Chiefs and encourage them to start performing at the level I know they’re capable of, and I appeal to all of you to do the same. A while back, one commenter made the statement that the home crowd shouldn’t make a difference in how well a team performs, and if that’s the case, why is homefield advantage such a huge deal come playoff time? I’ll tell you why: it’s because fan support does matter, it matters a lot more than you might think.

The sky doesn’t have to fall, but the less support there is, the more likely that baby will come crashing down. It took a flurry of Twitter messages conveying fan loyalty to the Chiefs, and respect for his individual abilities, to convince Eric Winston to come to a smaller market in Kansas City, even though he likely could’ve landed a big contract at a dozen other places. I’m curious as to how much drive and motivation could be stirred up in exploding your current Chiefs players’ Twitter accounts with positive, morale-boosting messages. We’re looking for someone to light a spark; what if we could be that spark? Idle support begets idle response. Chiefs fans were once undeniably the best fans in football, let’s embrace that legacy and kick it up a notch. Let the boys hear some noise! Let ‘em know that we not only want to see them kick some ass in New Orleans, but that it’s time to put the women and children to bed and go looking for @#$%#$% dinner… GO CHIEFS!!!!

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs got spanked by the Seattle Seahawks. As infuriating as it is to write that sentence, there’s no way around it. So, who’s to blame? [This is a cue for the Matt Cassel detractors to skip to the Comments section. This article is probably not for you. I’ll wait.]

…

Now that I’ve cut down on my readership (which in hindsight was probably a terrible idea), I will say that I think only a small amount of blame should fall on Cassel. WRs dropping passes that should by all means be caught dead to rights is much more a WR failure than a QB failure. Cassel’s fumble occurred from behind as a result of pass blocking failure, and, if he were standing around like a slouch it’d be one thing, but it’s harder to blame Cassel for not protecting the ball when he was reeling up to launch it (I’m actually incredibly curious what the end result would’ve been had Cassel been able to get the pass off, and, right before the fumble, instantly noticed that despite being under pressure and stepping forward Cassel didn’t lose track of where the line of scrimmage was and such a pass would’ve remained legal). And, though it’s never good to see your team’s QB throw a pick, the Chiefs were down by 23 points at the end of the third quarter and in a third down situation, facing certain sack Cassel made a choice that many NFL QBs (including ones among the elite) would’ve made by trying to dump the ball to the only teammate capable of catching it and keeping the drive alive, it just failed in the worst way possible. If the game were closer, I think we should be more upset at the end result (pick six), but in this particular situation, I’m inclined to cut him a break; if he does it in the regular season when the score is closer, or there’s more time left in the game, then I’ll start calling for his head.

Through the first two preseason games, Cassel looked like a better, more confident QB than we’re used to seeing. Does he still checkdown? Yes, but when that habit has been combined with a supporting run game, the Chiefs have been quite successful this preseason. I don’t think checkdowns are a problem when the plays are called right. In fact, one of the most absurd observations I heard following this last game’s blowout is that, during the only TD drive Cassel engineered, he checked down on all but maybe one pass, which I find absurd because why should anyone complain about checkdowns when the end result is a TD? Trying to throw a deeper ball got the team nowhere, after all. Besides that, a checkdown-laden, successful drive makes the opponent’s D more tired, the Chiefs’ D better rested, and yields less time on the clock for the other team to counter with points of their own.

The offensive playcalling witnessed in the Seahawks game was definitely off compared to the much more successful playcalling in the previous two games. Overall, I think the talent is there, and keeping the playcalling of the first two games and slowly working in the bolder plays of the last game will reap rewards over the long haul, so we shouldn’t be too worried going forward, despite this last game’s final score (offensively).

What fans should be worried about is the secondary. Jalil Brown may or may not have unrealized potential, but a CB replacing Brandon Flowers needs more than unmet “potential” if the Chiefs’ secondary wants to be more than a sieve. And the sieve-like tendency isn’t restricted to this year; going over last year’s statistics, it appears there should be less worry over the run defense, and more worry over the pass defense.

I’ve decided to compare the 2011 Kansas City defense to the Top 3 defenses of the season (Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston) to see how the Chiefs stacked up. We’ll start with examining the run defenses.

As can be seen, the KC had the greater numbers across all categories, which looks pretty bad at first glance. But note that opponents tended to run the ball a lot more against KC’s defense than against the other three teams. To even the playing field (so to speak), I decided to determine the likely results of a rushing attempt against KC versus a rushing attempt against the other three teams; this requires generating a TD% and 1^st Down% for each team. [TD% is equivalent to the TD stat divided by Attempts; 1^st Down% is equivalent to 1^st Downs divided by Attempts. As you’ll note, Y/A has already been calculated and included in the table, as this is a more commonly broken down statistic.] The determination of this breakdown is as follows:

As can be seen, the Chiefs still had a significantly higher than desirable TD% having allowed 2.76% of rushing attempts to result in a TD; however the team fared better than most of the other three teams only having allowed 18.9% of the rushing attempts against them to result in a first down, with Baltimore being the only team performing better. As can be seen in the first table, the Y/A average is negligible, and shouldn’t require too much improvement to match a Top 3 defense. Overall, there is still room to improve the run defense to the level of a Top 3 defense, but, as you’ll soon see, the difference is a lot more lopsided when comparing pass defenses.

The pass defense stats for each of these teams are as follows:

Looking over the table you’ll see that, despite having had less attempts made against them, and having allowed less completions, the Chiefs defense allowed the highest number in each of the remaining categories. So, right off the bat you should know the comparison isn’t going to bode well at all for Kansas City. But keeping with the formula used in comparing run defenses, I’ve calculated the TD% and 1^st Down% to determine the likely results of a passing attempt against KC versus a passing attempt against the other three teams, throwing in the pass completion percentage, as well.

Not only were opponents significantly more likely to complete a pass against the Kansas City defense than the other three teams, but they were also significantly more likely to see that completion turn into a TD or 1st Down, and by a much greater margin than when comparing run defenses. These numbers are unacceptable, and should have us a lot more worried about the team’s pass defense than their run defense, especially when you consider that last year’s secondary consisted of Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and Kendrick Lewis, none of whom are currently able to play for the team (Flowers and Lewis over those pesky injuries, and Carr over that pesky “on another team’s roster” thing).

Only so much of last year’s pass defense failures can be blamed on the rotating starters at the SS position, and on Belcher (a/k/a the defense’s Matt Cassel), and while I think that Routt will adequately replace Carr, and Elam will be a suitable fill-in for Lewis, not even the return of Eric Berry will fully make up for the (albeit temporary) loss of Flowers and the subsequent promotion of Jalil Brown to starting CB.

As the defensive situation currently stands, mobile QBs certainly seem to be an Achilles’ heel, as do better WRs than Jalil Brown can handle (such as Amendola). Only time will tell how Kansas City’s secondary will shake itself out, but make no mistake about it, the Chiefs’ pass defense should be a primary cause for concern, and three above average players in the secondary will be lucky to duplicate last year’s disappointing figures, let alone improve on those numbers. With Berry knocking off more of the rust accrued from not playing last season, and the front seven improving in the pass rush (Hali’s suspension for the Atlanta game notwithstanding), we may have more hope than I’m letting on; however, let us still hope that Lewis and Flowers (especially Flowers) find their way onto the field sooner rather than later, or the Chiefs will very likely be in for a rocky start.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Fourteen points later, we’re back to discuss what we’ve learned since the Chiefs lost the coveted Governor’s Cup to the St. Louis Rams. I wish I could gush over the Chiefs’ offensive effort in Friday night’s loss to the Seahawks. Unfortunately, it looks as though there are more questions than answers heading into the last week of the preseason. That’s not exactly reassuring after the most important preseason outing for the Chiefs offensive starters. It’s always difficult to know how much you can glean from football in August, but I think there are a few more things we can add to last week’s list.

1. Cassel will return to old habits under heavy pressure.

Matt Cassel spent the off-season working to improve his game. Between the time spent with pitching coach Tom House and quarterbacks coach Jim Zorn, he looked to be a slightly different quarterback. Friday night Murphy’s Law descended upon Arrowhead Stadium and it marked a return to Cassel’s old habits. Guards Lilja and Asamoah didn’t do Cassel any favors being shoved around by Seahawks defenders. Branden Albert contributed a few poorly-blocked pass plays of his own. The receivers dropped a handful of passes. Even the offensive gameplan seemed to be conspiring against Cassel’s preseason efficiency. I’m speculating here, but it occurred to me that limited carries between Charles and Hillis might’ve been Brian Daboll testing Cassel’s mettle. All of this lead to a jumpy Cassel who looked quite uncomfortable in the pocket (when he had one). It’s no surprise that McCluster led all receivers with seven catches. I had been impressed with Cassel’s ball placement through the first two games, but in Game 3 several of his passes sailed. He did respond with just over 9 minutes to play in the second quarter though, leading the Chiefs on a 17-play drive that ended in a Dexter McCluster touchdown.

2. McCluster’s maturation could hurt Cassel’s progress.

McCluster has put it all together this off-season with an impressive camp and a very productive month of August. Through three preseason games he leads the team in receptions and receiving yardage. #22 can be dangerous in Daboll’s offense, but he can also help Cassel solidify the title “Captain Checkdown.” Relying too heavily on outlets will do a grand disservice to his top three receivers (Bowe, Breaston, and Baldwin). McCluster being productive is good for this offense so long as he doesn’t keep Cassel from looking up field. Daboll wants to attack defenses. We can’t do that if pressure forces Cassel to lock in on his diminutive safety valve.

3. The Tight Ends will be a productive platoon.

I’ve heard arguments all off-season about which tight end will separate himself from the pack. Tony Moeaki, the founding member of the ACL3, has been the favorite among these watercooler conversations. Free agent acquisition Kevin Boss brings a slightly different skillset to the table and currently leads the group in receptions. Converted offensive tackle Steve Maneri quietly had a solid camp and opened the preseason with a three-catch, 69-yard game against Arizona. In each preseason contest a different tight end has stepped forward. I doubt that Daboll will play any offensive favorites, and it’s likely that there won’t be a singular hero at the position. I expect to see a committee approach in the mold of the New England Patriots.

4. Brian Daboll will experiment.

The one thing that impresses me the most about the Chiefs new offensive coordinator is his ability to adjust. The offense has struggled at times during the preseason, but in each game they’ve rebounded and found ways to get into the end zone. Kansas City’s offense had no rhythm the first twenty minutes of the game against Seattle. Daboll got them going on a 17-play drive that culminated in a touchdown pass from Cassel to McCluster. Throughout the preseason he’s consistently found ways to get his sluggish offense moving. That’s a welcome change in Kansas City. Former head coach Todd Haley knew how to beat a dead horse.

The preseason finale on Thursday night likely won’t tell us much, but there are a few roster spots still up for grabs. Nate Eachus went off for 98 rushing yards in the fourth quarter of the Seattle game. The offensive starters will be pulled early so it’ll be interesting to see what he and Shaun Draughn make of the the remaining three quarters of football. Eachus is a long shot, but he could very well play his way onto this roster with another game like the one he had this past Friday night at Arrowhead. The race for the final two or three WR slots will also be something to watch. I’m also hoping to see some consistency from the offensive line in protecting the quarterback. When we reconvene next week we’ll have final preseason answers, a shorter roster, and a good idea of what we can expect in the regular season opener against Atlanta.

Until then, Addicts…

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel find themselves in an uncommon predicament in Kansas City. The Chiefs have more depth than they’ve had in years, and it’s time to start pruning back the roster. While Pioli has more notable experience at this task due to his time in New England, RAC’s experience as HC in Cleveland was probably less “which player is better” and more “which player sucks less”.

Further, the CBA explicitly leaves it to each team to determine its own cutdown schedule, which for Pioli, at least, tasks him with determining what moves are best for the team that’ll play the regular season and what moves are best for the ledger. You see, while the Chiefs could hold, in theory, hold all players until the end of the preseason, making all cuts and practice squad assignments in one fell swoop, they also have to pay each player each week they remain on roster (plus housing, meals and other costs). For players that have not yet accrued one NFL season the rate is $850 per week. For the remaining players, who are considered veterans with at least one season under belt, the sum is $1,600 per week.

Being in a position not so concerned about the business aspect of the NFL, Crennel will obviously be interested in getting the best players for his team on the 53-man roster.

A few position groups look a little tighter than others and will warrant longer looks. The Chiefs’ RB/FB group, DL & OL look particularly tight. Their LB corps also looks tight outside of DJ, Hali, Houston & Belcher/Siler, but the talent dropoff is a little bit more noticeable for the remainders (which is bound to happen when compared to DJ, Hali and the emerging Houston). The WRs and DBs are overcrowded, but a few names are clearly improving and impressing over others so it might not be as tight as it looks on paper. QBs look pretty straightforward (Cassel, Quinn & Stanzi on roster and Tanney on the practice squad), as does TE (Boss, Moeaki & Maneri on roster for sure; maybe Biere or O’Connell if they decide to keep a fourth).

A couple important things to note is that, while it is a 53-man roster, the practice squad is allowed up to 8 players (9 if the team puts an international player on the squad as the 9th person, which doesn’t look to be pertinent to the Chiefs this year). So realistically, of the 90 men on roster, only 29 must be cut from the team completely. Also an interesting point to note is that, while any team can sign a player from another team’s practice squad, they may only do so in the interest of adding the player to the second team’s own 53-man roster; the CBA prohibits teams from taking a player off another team’s practice squad just to turn around and put the player on their own practice squad.

Following Preseason Week 1, here are a few observations and predictions concerning how Pioli & Co. may handle the cuts this season:

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

1. Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray both look like they could be solid contributors in the regular season. Putting one of these players on the practice squad could be synonymous with cutting them, as I think another team would be likely to clear a spot on their 53-man roster to take a chance on them. Inversely, I don’t see the Chiefs carrying more than 4 players in the backfield, which means they might have to do without a fulltime FB. Hillis can provide these services, if needed, and the team’s decision to crosstrain a few TEs in the role may make Shane Bannon expendable. Notice I said “expendable” rather than “relegated to the practice squad for another year”. The Steelers starting FB went down to an ACL tear during the Steelers preseason opener against the Eagles, and is likely to be out for the entire season.* The Steelers have a way of making good use of their FB on roster and may be looking to replace him for the season. Todd Haley might look no further than KC in recommending a replacement to HC Mike Tomlin, and Haley’s eyes may be on the waiver wire or KC’s practice squad (as the case may be). Now the Steelers have shown a tendency to prefer FBs that are more in the FB/TE hybrid vein, so maybe this circumstance won’t arise, but it bears keeping an eye on.

* Been there, right? Hey, maybe the injury bug followed Haley to Pittsburgh. Wouldn’t that be nice?

2. In limited punting opportunities, K/P Matt Szymanski put up numbers comparable to Colquitt’s. Additionally, Szymanski did consistently great during his opportunities on placekicking duties. While it’s likely that Colquitt will remain the Chiefs’ punter this season, and that the Chiefs won’t carry more than one kicker and one punter on the 53-man roster (other position groups are too crowded and the additional spot could be better used elsewhere), more importance has been placed on STs this year, and the future prospect of only needing to use one roster slot for a K and P is enticing (and we all know Pioli loves versatility). I expect Szymanski to get a practice squad slot and to receive a lot of focus on punting this season. If it looks like he could suitably replace Colquitt, Pioli may just let Dustin’s contract expire at the end of the season and move forward with the player that may potentially develop into a suitable K as well a few years down the line.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

3. The DL looks thicker. Just a few months ago a lot of fans were taking it for granted that players like Powe and Amon Gordon would make the roster, myself included; now, I’m not too sure. Toribio has progressed more than any of us probably anticipated and will likely remain in the Top 2 in the depth chart at NT. Gordon does have an edge on Powe, as he can handle either DE or NT duties, but even there depth at DE looks just as thick and may not accommodate Gordon. Besides Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey, the Chiefs have Allen Bailey who looks to provide the team with a better pass rush from the DL, the solidly built veteran Ropati Pitoitua, and Brandon Bair has started to make a little bit of noise on the field. Eight players for the DL seems like a little much, especially if Poe can prove his stamina before the preseason is over and be a three-down player. Powe may have a shot of making the roster, if RAC determines that Dontari can provide DE services consistently enough to go with the anticipated NT services (thereby rendering Gordon as aged and obsolete a’la Kelly Gregg). But as of right now, I expect 7 men to carry over to the 53-man roster with the last spot going to either Bair or Gordon.

4. My fourth and final prediction following Week 1 concerns the WR situation. I can reasonably see 7 WRs making it to the 53-man roster. Bowe, Baldwin, Breaston, McCluster & Wylie are almost sure to be locks with the remaining WRs duking it out for the last two slots. I think Terrence Copper’s proven effectiveness on special teams and his veteran presence might give him an edge for the sixth slot. The real battle will be over the final slot, and I think the top contenders will be Josh Bellamy, Zeke Markhausen and Junior Hemingway. Markhausen has more experience (though ever so slightly) over the other two, Bellamy has been turning heads in practice (though his play was a little lackluster against the Cards), and Pioli and the KC scouts obviously saw something they liked in Hemingway (though injuries have plagued his training thus far). Hemingway’s injuries haven’t just deterred the Chiefs from getting a good read on him, but the other NFL teams likely won’t risk a roster slot on him, plus his upside looks better than Markhausen, so Junior might be a prime candidate for the practice squad. This leaves Bellamy and Markhausen vying for the last slot. Zeke having enough experience to be a little more used to the speed of the game at the NFL level is reassuring; however, Bellamy has created buzz and may not stay around long if relegated to the practice squad. Additionally, Bellamy has a certain kind of experience that no other KC WR has: Bellamy played double duty, as needed, in college as both a WR and a CB. While ultimately going undrafted and getting signed by the Chiefs as a WR, Bellamy may have future stock in being crosstrained for defense. But for the here and now, Bellamy could earn a roster spot for his ST ability as his time playing D in college likely means that his tackling technique is noticeably more refined than his competitions’ at WR in KC. I expect Bellamy to continue to work hard in practice and to earn a spot on this year’s roster.

So there’s my take following Preseason Week 1. What’s your take, Addicts? Sound off…

A favorite pastime for Chiefs fans this offseason has been debating whether or not a Matt Cassel-led Kansas City Chiefs can achieve Super Bowl glory. Abounding arguments eventually degenerate to: you need an elite QB to win a SB, and Matt Cassel is not an elite QB.

Some of the more brazen fans would allude to the possibility that Matt Cassel still might become elite. While there still may be time for him to develop, and it’ll be interesting to see how Tom House’s work with Cassel on his throwing mechanics will translate to the field on game day, the odds of eliteness aren’t too good. However, with all the changes we hope to see, we should be looking at a Top 20 passing offense at the least.

“Big whoop,” I imagine you saying. “In what world does a team with a QB lucky to break the Top 20 have a real chance at a Super Bowl title? Sure, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson did it. But two teams in the past 12 years are not the kind of odds to hang your hopes on.”

Methinks you doth protest too much.

I’m not gonna rehash the little factoids such as Rex Grossman getting the Bears to the SB in the 2006 season. Or that just this past season we were poor special teams play away from witnessing two non-elite QBs in the big game. Though go-to favorites, we’re all Addicts here, and those arguments are old hat.

But what if I told you that the ’00 Ravens and ’02 Bucs weren’t the only teams to win a SB in the past dozen years without elite QB-play? That three other teams made it happen in a way our very own Chiefs could well duplicate this year? I present to you the ’01 Patriots, the ’05 Steelers and ’07 Giants.

“Wait just a minute, slappy; Brady, Roethlisberger and Eli Manning are all counted among the elite.” Yeah they are… now. But let’s take off the rose-tinted glasses and go back in time to the years these QBs got their first SB rings… And it’s not nice to call me “slappy”…

The date is Feb. 3, 2002: Rams vs. Patriots. After Drew Bledsoe suffered a serious injury in Week 2 of the season, the Patriots had been left to play a sixth-round pick out of Michigan that only just entered his second year as an NFL pro. He hasn’t done too bad over the season, but, still, the Patriots finished off the season ranking only 22^nd in passing. By comparison, they ranked 13^th in rushing, and their defense 6^th in points allowed. Brady has only posted 2,843 passing yards on the season (a career low in seasons he saw significant playing time), 18 TDs (another career low), and a 2.9 percent INT rate (a career high). Further, the Patriots barely made it through the playoffs, and were fortunate that their divisional round game against the Raiders was officiated by a team of refs that were aware of an obscure rule that kept what could’ve been a fumble merely an incomplete pass, opening up an opportunity for K Adam Vinatieri to make an insanely long kick in terrible weather conditions… the kind of kick Hollywood would glorify, but moviegoers would think to be too highly unlikely, if not impossible, to happen in real life. Following up on that near loss, the Patriots met trouble in the AFC Championship game against the Steelers. Brady went down to injury and Bledsoe came back in and was able to save the day.

So it was a rough road, but the Patriots were able to make it into the Super Bowl. Let’s see how Brady did: completing 16 out of 27 passes (a 59.25% completion rate), Brady had 145 yards passing on the day and one TD (an eight-yd pass to David Patten). Not quite yet the showing of an elite QB. So where did the win come from if not on the back of the QB? I see they rushed for a combined 133 yards, almost matching their passing production (not too shabby). Still, the Pats total combined offense didn’t surpass Kurt Warner’s passing offense (365 yards), and chipping in 92 yards rushing for the Rams just adds to the lopsidedness. Guess the Pats’ defense is owed a lot of credit considering all that production didn’t result in more points. Okay, and Ty Law had a 47-yd INT return for a TD. That would definitely help. And Vinatieri shows up again with 37-yd and 48-yd FGs; the 48-yarder getting the win. Guess we know who’s getting the MVP… Wait! It was Brady?!?! I guess giving the K his due would offend your QBs delicate sensibilities. But what about Ty Law, or someone else on D that shut down the Rams when it was needed the most? “What’s that? Defensive players get the SB MVP with the same frequency they win the Heisman, and Ray Lewis just got MVP in the previous SB?” Okay. Let the history book insinuate that Brady was better than he was that early on; in the meantime, sports photographers will make a killing selling Vinatieri pictures and prints to the New England fans that knew better.

Moving on, let’s examine Roethlisberger and the 2005 Steelers. You know what? This one’s easy. The Steelers finished the season ranked 24^th in passing offense, 5^th in rushing offense and 3^rd in Defensive Points Allowed. They had as many TDs rushing as they did passing (21) and four of those passing TDs weren’t even thrown by Roethlisberger. Big Ben had 2,385 passing yards on the season, and had a pathetic showing in the SB, posting a Passer Rating of 22.6. Seriously. Ben completed 9 of 21 passes for 123 yds in the SB, and 2 INTS. The only Pittsburgh TD reception came on a WR pass from Antwaan Randle-El to Hines Ward. If the 2002 Bucs are proof that a team can win it all with a disgustingly high scoring defense, the 2005 Steelers are proof perfect that a team with a shutdown defense and a top notch running game can win it all.

The 2007 Giants are perhaps the toughest to defend. Eli finished the season with 3,336 passing yards (right around Cassel’s top end). While he did post 23 TD receptions on the year, he led the league in INTs with 20… by no means a good ratio, let alone an “elite” QBs ratio. He also completed only 57.7 percent of his passes (Cassel’s career average is 59 percent). All in all, the Giants passing offense on the season was ranked 21^st, their defense 17^th in points allowed (though 7^th in yards allowed), and 4^th overall in rushing offense with their RBs contributing 15 TDs on the season. So their defense was about average, their running game well above average, and their passing game considerably below average.

What makes a tough point to argue is that Eli put in a significantly better SB performance than either Brady or Ben in their first go-rounds (especially Ben… 22.6 Passer Rating?!?! C’mon!) Eli completed 19 of 34 passes (a 55.9% completion rate) for 255 yds, two TDs and one INT. What shouldn’t be overlooked is the fact that the Patriots were having a perfect season, losing no games and averaging just shy of 37 points per game and despite this, the Giants’ defense really stepped it up and held the Pats to 14 points (including overcoming a near successful game winning drive in the final minute of play).

It should also be remembered that the Giants’ final drive was kept alive by David Tyree knowing enough to break his route and give Eli a target down-field before getting sacked… and also making a miraculous helmet catch that may well define the term “circus catch”. While Eli deserves some credit for staying on his feet; Tyree deserves the bulk of the credit for his situational awareness and making such an unlikely catch.

So, there you have it: three more teams and three more SBs, where the quality of QB play was much less elite and much more Cassel-esque. And while these players may be elite now, their production and circumstances indicate that in these years their teams won, not on the strength of their QB, but on the strength of the team as a whole. Be it a strong defense keeping the score low, a running game that pounded the ball and controlled the clock, or particularly good special teams play, these teams persevered and earned the coveted title.

Overall, our beloved Chiefs have the makings of such a team. Our defense is primed to crack the Top 10, if not the Top five. If Charles and Hillis return to some semblance of their 2010 form, the Chiefs are pretty much guaranteed a Top 5 run game, if not No. 1. And the increased talent and strength of our offensive line should keep the Richard Seymours of the world at bay long enough for Ryan Succop to keep us alive when we need it the most. Everyone wants a playoff win (and it has been a while), and as heartbreaking as it may be to hope for a higher goal and fall short, I see no reason why we can’t win it all this year and bring the Lombardi Trophy to where it would look best: Kansas City. Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!

 Last time, we explored what to expect from, and what should be expected of, Jeff Allen this year. Moving forward with our examination of our newest offensive linemen, we turn our attention to Donald Stephenson.

Donald Stephenson only played two years in college which some people are taking as a cause for concern. But when he did play, it was at the position on the line with perhaps the least margin for error: blind-side tackle. I say “blind-side tackle” because LT is only the toughest position when the QB’s right-handed (okay: so that’s the case, like, 99.5 percent of the time), but what makes it tough is not which side of the center you’re playing at, but the fact that the QB can’t see what’s coming from your direction and a failed block could result in huge consequences (ask Joe Thiesman).

At his time at Oklahoma, Stephenson logged over 100 knockdowns in each of his two years starting. For comparison, Jeff Allen averaged somewhere in the mid-80s per year over a four year span in college. Additionally, at the NFL level, 100 knockdowns is generally the benchmark for OLs to hit if they wish to be in serious contention for a Pro Bowl berth.

A knockdown is almost as simple as it sounds like… almost. A knockdown is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground, and there are two types of knockdown. The first type, which doesn’t really have a special name, is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground and move on to take on a still-standing defender. The second type is called a “pancake” and consists of, as you’re knocking a player down, following him to the ground, landing on top of him, and staying put (effectively removing any chance that defender had of making a stop for the rest of that play, since, if you can’t get up, you likely can’t tackle/sack anybody, you can’t defend/intercept any passes and you can’t force/recover any fumbles).

Regular knockdowns are preferable for running plays when the OL is serving as a lead blocker. In this case, when a defender is knocked down, by the time he gets back up the play is long past him. Pancakes are best reserved as the type of knockdown to use in a pass play. As I previously stated, if you can’t get up, you can’t get sacks/interceptions/etc. Knockdowns are one of few stats kept track of for OLs throughout their football careers (you’ll also see stats for sacks allowed, QB hurries allowed and TD-resulting blocks). When you hear “knockdown” just remember that this number includes pancakes. Like all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares, all pancakes are knockdowns but not all knockdowns are pancakes.

Essentially, Stephenson did very well in neutralizing players in large part due to this ability. To boot, the Oklahoma line as a whole only gave up 11 sacks last season… as a whole!

So, if Stephenson played so well, why did he only start for two years in college? When Stephenson arrived in Oklahoma he found himself behind junior OT Trent Williams on the depth chart. The same Trent Williams that the Redskins chose as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. When Williams arrived in Oklahoma in 2006 he found himself in a similar quandary sitting behind OT Branndon Braxton. Fortunately (for Williams) Braxton went down to injury partway into the 2006 season and Williams was afforded the opportunity to showcase his abilities as a freshman. The next season the coaches split snaps between Williams and Braxton. Stephenson wasn’t quite so fortunate to receive a similar opportunity; following Braxton’s departure, Williams did not miss college playing time with the exception of the last regular season game of his senior year.

We should probably give Stephenson a little more attention than we have been, don’t you think?

Stephenson is set to be a “swing” tackle this year. If Albert or Winston need a breather, Stephenson will be our guy. And believe it or not, swing tackle is one of the tougher jobs on the offensive line. Don’t believe me? You’ve seen a tackle come out of his stance before; one of the first things he does is flip his hips to the outside. Get out of your chair and try it. To spare you some embarrassment (or at least an explanation to your co-workers), I won’t ask you to get down in a three-point stance; you can start off in a position that still has a good bend in the knees and waist. Now, open your hips out to the right (like a RT) bringing your arms up like you’re blocking. Now, try it opening your hips out to the left. One of those felt more natural and fluid than the other, didn’t it?* This plays a large part of why great RTs can make lousy LTs, and vice versa; you’re trying to get your body to do something that just doesn’t feel right.

* It did.

In order to excel in the swing tackle role (truly excel), Stephenson will have to rep this over and over and over again until opening his hips one way feels just as natural and fluid as opening his hips the other way to realize similar success at both positions (LT and RT). Thankfully, his success in college at LT seems to indicate that he’s well versed in opening his hips to the left, so Cassel won’t have to worry much about his blindside when Albert needs a break. How well Stephenson will do when Winston needs a break is the bigger question mark right now.

I am a huge proponent of the “lockup Albert to a long-term deal” crowd, and I think Winston is a Godsend, but Stephenson will be a significant contributor. As Paddy recently pointed out, Albert is ranked highly in pass protection, and Winston in run blocking. If Stephenson can spell our players for a stretch of plays they’re less successful at (Albert on runs and Winston on passes), it’ll keep our starters fresh and read to dominate even more on the plays they’re best at. That would be a significant contribution.

So is Stephenson a starter this year? No. Will he be a starter for the Chiefs in the long-term? Not if Pioli does his job and extends Albert’s contract. But he will play an important part in our line’s success this year, and that is worth a third-round pick.

Well played, Pioli, well played…

After the selection of Dontari Poe with the 11th overall pick, Scott Pioli surprised Chiefs Nation further by taking not one, but two more linemen with the next picks, this time on the offensive side of the ball.

It’s hard to surmise which pick was more surprising. Illinois OT Jeff Allen didn’t get much media coverage before the draft, but do you know who did? C Peter Konz and OT Mike Adams, both of whom were still available. “C’MON, PIOLI! Who is this guy?” cried Chiefs Nation. And the internet exploded killing hundreds and severely injuring thousands as Chiefs fans scoured the message boards everywhere lamenting the passing of Konz and Adams, and trying to find out just who Jeff Allen is (true story).

But then Pioli goes and drafts Donald Stephenson in Round 3. Okay; he’s a home boy and was invited to the Chiefs’ local pro day, at least we know who he is. But didn’t most pundits predict him to go in the 5th Round, some as early as round 4 to be fair, but more than that as late as Round 6?!?

With the exception of the pass rushing variety and the automatic-upgrade-to-any-team variety, linemen are not sexy draft picks. They’re just not. Linemen are like most businesses’ support staffs: if they do their job well, they run the risk of going unnoticed and their talents taken for granted, so only when they falter are they guaranteed to get attention. But also like support staffs, their success is vital in keeping things running like a well-oiled machine.

As we learned shortly after the pick, Jeff Allen played throughout his entire college career, starting at RT and making the move to LT shortly thereafter, and earning awards, honors and mentions all along his way. Allen is projected to ultimately supplant Ryan Lilja at LG, a move not uncommon when college players turn pro (just this year the League even saw a veteran make the move when PIT moved Willie Colon, formerly a T, to G for the upcoming season). A move like this tends to be less mentally taxing on a player than you might think. Whereas D-Linemen can succeed well knowing their own individual assignment and trusting their teammates to know theirs, O-Linemen succeed best when they know not just their individual blocking assignment, but also the assignments of the guys beside them… Oh! Also their mirror counterparts at the other end of the line.

Whether you’ve only played football in video games or played physically at some level in your life, you should probably know that when a play is added to the offensive playbook it’s actually added twice: one the way the play was originally drawn up, and the other, the mirror image of that play. Usually something minute in the play call tells the players which way the play’s going. [Ex: Say a run play’s called the “25 Pitch”. The play calling system we’re using might be that the “5” in “25” means the pitch is going to the left. If the play’s called as “26 Pitch”, the “6” would mean it’s going to the right.] When looking at the play in its original and in its reverse, the change in WR routes and/or RB assignments is usually pretty noticeable between the two versions. What might be overlooked, or not even considered without thinking, is that blocking assignments change between the two as well. It’s beneficial to an OL to not just know what they’re doing individually on one version of the play, but also what their mirror counterparts are doing on the other side, because they’ll be expected to do the same when the play’s called in the opposite direction. Bear in mind, this is also while knowing what blocking assignments the man next to you in line will be required to make. Ultimately, the best OLs wind up knowing what everyone’s assignments on the line are, because it’s kind of important.

The real consideration when an OL changes position is whether or not they have the physical tools to make the transition.

Cs can be a little bit smaller than their fellow linemen, as their blocking assignments will often involve assisting a G on a block, picking up a smaller blitzer (read: LB or S) or (in runs up the gut) blocking a LB downfield (also called “on the next level”). Plus, the half a moment it takes to snap the ball is a half a moment during which your teammates have already engaged in their blocks (so making a C’s assignment to be to assist a G on a block or pick up a blitzer makes sense, as these things can wait a half moment).

Gs, working between the C and a T, can have a little less side-to-side foot quickness than, say, Ts, but should count forward moving speed as one of their greatest assets as they’ll be required to, often enough, break from the line on a pull or a trap.

Ts, not necessarily having someone to their outer side (if no TE is lined up), benefit most from side-to-side foot quickness as there’s a whole open field on the outer side of them that they absolutely must be able to defend. I hear that the failure to do this is called “Barry the Bullfighter Syndrome” around these parts.

Last week hope remained that Bowe would be offered a multi-year contract before Monday’s deadline, and I took upon myself to answer a few questions regarding NFL contracts and the salary cap that may have been on fans’ minds.

This week we know that Bowe and the Chiefs didn’t reach a multi-year deal. In the wake of this news it’s apparent that pretty much every fan knows that Bowe has the option to sit out the year or sign a contract to play the 2012 season, but there are a few questions/misunderstandings on the finer points that have cropped up in discussions across the web that could use some clarifying.

If Bowe opts to sit out this year, will he be penalized?

It depends on how you define “penalized.” The Exclusive Franchise Player tag means he can only sign a deal with the Chiefs to play this season*; however, it does not mean he is under contract. Not being under contract, Bowe should expect that by not playing football he won’t earn a paycheck, and probably doesn’t view it so much as a penalty as it is a necessary evil if he decides not to play. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play this season before the first regular season game, he’ll be due the entire sum of $9.5 million. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play after the first regular season game, the $9.5 million figure will be reduced proportionately. At no point would Bowe be expected to give up more than the amount of the franchise tender. So if you want to call it a penalty, just be aware that it’s more of a passive penalty than a proactive penalty. Basically, full play = full pay, partial play = partial pay & no play = no pay (there is no no play = no pay + additional penalties). Personally, refusing to give something to someone who has yet to earn it isn’t really a penalty in my book.

* The CBA expressly forbids the assignment or transferring of this exclusive negotiating right to another team**.

** Yes, this means that the rumor that Bowe was on the trading block during the Draft back in April is totally baseless, as Pioli and the FO would certainly have known that he couldn’t be traded.

If Bowe sits out the season, can he be franchised next year?

Yes. However, the CBA requires that such a tag be a Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag. Under such a tag, Bowe would be free to negotiate a deal with other teams, but the Chiefs would maintain a Right to First Refusal. In this scenario, if the Chiefs would elect to not match the other team’s offer they would have the right to be compensated with a first-round draft pick and a third-round draft pick in the upcoming draft.

What happens to the salary cap if Bowe decides to sit out the full season?

If by 3 p.m. (CST) on the first Tuesday after Week 10 of the regular season arrives, and Bowe is still not under contract, two things happen:

1)  Bowe will be prohibited from playing football for the remainder of the League year.

2)  The entire $9.5 million currently earmarked for Bowe through the franchise tag will be released back into the team’s available funds.

So, if Bowe doesn’t play this year, he doesn’t get any money, but the team doesn’t lose its money either (they’d get it back and could roll it over into next year’s cap if they so choose).

What can happen with the franchise tag if Bowe does play this season?

There would be no restrictions on the type of franchise tag (Exclusive Player or Non-Exclusive Player) that the Chiefs could use if Bowe plays under the tag this season. In this scenario, if the Chiefs extend Bowe the Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag and another team makes Bowe an offer the Chiefs don’t want to match, draft pick compensation would come to the tune of two first-round draft picks in the upcoming Draft.

The argument can be made, and I’m making it now, that if Baldwin, Breaston & Co. show enough progression to make Pioli comfortable with risking the loss of Bowe altogether, this may mean very great things for the future of our franchise. Yeah, we’d lose perhaps one of our greatest receivers in franchise history, but we’d be gaining much more ammunition for making a move towards one of the greater QBs coming out in the draft, and we wouldn’t quite be “trading the farm” like the ‘Skins did this year for RGIII. That’s a temptation that absolutely has to be considered, and I don’t think we should blame Pioli one bit for taking it into account (which I’m sure he has).

Are multi-year negotiations totally off the table until free agency begins next offseason?

No. Though it is off the table for the time being, the CBA allows negotiations for a multi-year contract to resume following the team’s final game of the regular season. So even if the franchise tag is unavailable for use on Bowe next year (i.e. if it’s being used on another player such as Albert or Dorsey) given the length of time between the playoffs and when free agency begins, Bowe and the Chiefs will have about two months to work out a long-term deal before other teams could begin negotiating with Bowe.

_____________

All-in-all, it looks like not signing Bowe to a long-term deal now is not the end of the world. In fact, between the compensatory picks we could potentially gain by letting Bowe go through a Non-Exclusive Franchise tag next season, and the compensatory picks we’ll get for the FA losses we incurred this season (Carr, Orton and the like), we’re looking at the possibility of having a MASSIVE draft next season, and I’m almost already salivating at the thought of what that could mean. We’re on the brink of greatness, Addicts, and one way or another Bowe will be a key component in how we get there: be it as a Chief, or a bargaining chip.

This time of the year in the NFL is like eating Halloween candy all day long every day for months on end. Not that I’d know how that feels but, I’m guessing this could be what it feels like.

More than anything, it’s a scary good time for Chiefs fans to find out the answers to some questions that’ve been looming for what seems like an age..

Which is the best player for the Chiefs to take in free agency?

Which is the best player for the Chiefs to take in the draft?

You could call it the “which is” magic because everyone has an opinion about which is the prospect that would instantaneously transform the team into a champion. So, this is truly, the season of the which.

Following is the “Three Which-Is Draft.”

The Chiefs could make a myriad of moves with their picks, and between now and the draft we’ll all be wondering which is the best pick in each round.

While such speculation is the jumping off point for many a mock, instead you’ll be given three prospects which I’d be happy with, should the Chiefs select them, at several different possible points that the Chiefs could be picking in the draft.

This will cover four rounds, seven possible drafting positions and 21 preferable prospects. While free agency is just getting under way, we’ll take a break from that to focus on draft prospects.

Here’s the Three Which-Is Draft

(more…)

Tradeoffs (sigh).

I haven’t seen the 2011 charting stat numbers yet, but I can tell you that in 2010, Stanford Routt, when paired up with Nmandi Asomugha, was a top shelf pass defender. Football Outsiders, for example, ranked him with the 3rd highest success rate, with 66% of passes defended. Carr ranked 10th in that department with 61% of passes defended. In fact, both scored better than Brandon Flowers, for what it’s worth. Also worth noting is that Routt only gave up 5.7 yards per pass to Carr’s 7.1 yd/pass. Given all that, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to expect Routt’s production to parallel his 2010 situation playing alongside Flowers.

There are also rumors circulating in the media that Routt was somebody for whom Romeo Crennel actively lobbied. If true, I think that’s also pretty significant in terms of scheme fit. For a really well-written, compelling look into the player we’re getting in Stanford Routt, I recommend Doug Farrar’s (Yahoo! Sports) recent piece on him. Long story short, I personally feel this is a really good signing no matter how you slice it.

Now that Routt is inked, it seems that the popular assumption, or expectation if you will, is that all this means is that Pioli got himself a guy with skills very comparable to those of Carr for what we think could be 2 or 3 million less per year. Cynically put, Pioli avoided some unnecessary negotation stress by landing a comparable replacement for Carr who, oh by the way, just so happens to be cheaper to pay. Given that, one is then further tempted to think that the safe, conservative move now is to simply franchise Bowe and let Carr walk. CB dilemma solved, franchise tag dilemma solved, all good.

Well guess what? I’m going to go against the grain and offer an even better strategy. Scotty, I hope you’re reading this (I also hope that after reading this, you’ll finally start responding to those thousands of suggestion letters I’ve sent you dammit!).

Bowe, while inconsistent at times, has shown the potential to be a gamechanger. That’s worth something in the NFL. I think he can also be considered a foundational player for the Chiefs. Also worth something. Still, I believe that Bowe, rather than being tagged, ought to be locked up into a long-term deal before free agency hits. Unless you’re planning to shop him– in and of itself a risky strategy on many fronts– I see no reason not to just sign him to a comfortable, reasonable, market value contract.

So why no tag for Bowe you ask? Well, first off because if you really want him, and you’ve come up with a good backup plan for Carr, then there’s really no reason whatsoever for not focusing all of your attention and energy on getting a deal done to make Bowe’s long-term presence as a Chief into reality. Not just that, but doesn’t it also help to further underscore that whole PR pledgy thingy to develop and retain core players?

As promising and exciting and foundational as Bowe might seem, it is also important to recognize that he simply has not proven himself to be among of the 5 best receivers in the league which, in a certain sense, is what the franchise tag kind of suggests. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the 12th best WR going into 2012 and 19th best among their Dynasty Rankings. Similarly, Football Outsiders ranked Bowe 51st in DVOA and 31st in DYAR for 2011. Not exactly what you’d call eye-popping production.

We all know that Bowe every once in awhile makes for some fun highlight reel footage, but does he honestly merit franchise tag money? Especially when you’re most likely not going to find many teams willing to exchange a high value pick for him? I think you see my point. Bottom line, paying Bowe like he’s a top 5 WR really doesn’t sound all that Clark-like to me. Lest we forget, Bowe was a 1st round draft pick– just how likely is it that we can get that for him now? ROI people, ROI.

Moving on, if Pioli can sign Bowe to a long-term deal before free agency hits, he’ll still have a franchise tag at his disposal, right? Well, please tell me then what would be the folly in using that tag on Carr? In fact, franchising Carr seems to me like the best of all possible moves at this point and I’m going to offer some reasons as to why that is so.

It’s a proverbial seller’s market for top tier CBs and this year is no different. Justifiable or not, Carr is almost certain to command an elite CB level of monetary respect out on the open market. What’s more, it seems there could be some healthy competition for a CB of Carr’s caliber. I can think of at least a couple of teams out there that are desperately needing major secondary talent who, oh by the way, also happen to have some pretty interesting draft pick horsepower to make a lucrative deal happen for the Chiefs. For example, both the Patriots and the Bengals are in need of quality CB help and both are holding on to spare 1st round picks. Just imagine all of the tantalizing draft possibilities that would suddenly open up for the Chiefs if that were to happen?

Move up and get a franchise QB? Check.
Pick up a couple of first round offensive linemen? Check.
Control the draft by moving down? Check.

So you say, “well Double D, suppose nobody is willing to pony up a high draft pick for Carr? Aren’t you then stuck with an overpaid secondary that you’re underutilizing most of the time because, well, as everybody knows, you really only need 2 good corners? Very, very risky. Very expensive (i.e., unClark-like). Not good. Or as my AA colleague Big Matt might say ‘Mattie no likey.’”

Not good? How about not so fast?

Merlin and I were texting back and forth on this whole deal the other day and he brought to my attention a pretty interesting fact of which I was previously unaware. To wit, an NFL nickel plays about 50% of all snaps currently. That is a lot. On top of that, the more success you have at containing teams on 1st down, the more likely it is that you’ll see the nickel utilized on successive downs. In fact, I think with the right personnel, a pretty compelling argument can be made for having the nickel formation as your base D.

When I think of Flowers, Carr, and Routt being on the field all at the same time, I start thinking “two’s company, but hey, three’s a party!” Arenas might excel at wrapping up receivers pretty quickly after the catch but he’s not exactly setting the world on fire when it comes to preventing that catch from happening in the first place. Just sayin.

As many on the message boards here have already suggested, the Routt signing may indeed turn out to be a very forward thinking approach on the part of Crennel and Pioli. In fact, passing against a defensive backfield comprised primarily of Flowers, Carr and Routt would be close to impossible. In this increasingly pass-friendly league, I have to think that that level of secondary presence would basically relegate opposing offenses to beating you with their running game, and maybe tossing in a few dink and dunks for good measure (which painfully brings to mind a certain low-scoring, rather flaccid offense with which I happen to be pretty familiar).

The only practical alternative to going with the run would be to simultaneously risk a lot of coverage sacks. Unless your QB can progress through his reads quickly and also get rid of the ball in a hurry, you’re gonna be in a heap of trouble. If a team goes run, we’ll have DJ, Berry, and perhaps Belcher up in there to contain it. If a team opts to pass, their dealing with a DB set of Flowers, Routt, Carr, and Berry with maybe DJ in coverage while Hali & Houston, along with either an ILB, S, or CB, are all breathing fire in your backfield.

Next– just stay with me here– we grab a very gettable guy in the form of one Paul Soliai as our NT. Tell me, how can that cannot be considered a run stuffing, block eating, shutdown, ballhawking, nightmare defense?

So, armed on defense, we head into the draft to start filling holes on offense.

Final (crazy?) thought. While neither has any experience at the position (at least none of which I’m aware), both Carr and Routt possess prototypical size and speed to play Safety, Routt perhaps moreso because of his physicality. Might this signing, combined with the retention Carr, offer more options and much needed depth at that position as well? I know, stupid idea, probably makes more sense to just plug Sabby Piscatelli whenever the need arises, right? I’m sure we’ll be just fine should Eric Berry happen to miss any games.

That’s my Double Take.

Sound off Addicts!

“Huddle up.”

“Gather round.”

“Everybody make a circle.”

I’ve been involved in team sports for over five decades and have heard those words on and off the field of play many, many times. It’s what you do in any team sport. You gather together… usually in a circle.

The Chiefs season has finished some time ago now but, I keep attempting to understand why or how the season came out the way it did. Evaluations abound and I’ve read many since the Chiefs whipped the Broncos in their last game. However, these “evaluations” don’t seem to take the “team concept” into account.

Being the teacher that I am, I admit, I’m a bit of a charts and graphs freak. Perhaps you’ve noticed this from some of my other posts. Plus, I keep having a “circle” come to mind, to exemplify and symbolize, the idea of a team.

So, here’s my evaluation of the Chiefs in 2011 as seen through the success circle. The success circle takes the evaluation of each player and places them together in a circle. Each player must do their job for the team to be successful as a whole. The more each player contributes, the more well rounded the team becomes.

When that happens, a team can really get on a roll. However, we didn’t see much rolling this year.

Below you’ll find a circle graph with a rating for each player on offense and a separate circle graph for defense.

This week I will cover offense. Next week I’ll cover the Chiefs defense.

The circle evaluation system consists of a numerical rating from 1-10 for each player with one being the worst and 10 being the best. If a player is in the 96th percentile, or higher, of everyone playing their position in the league, then they deserve a 10. Currently, the Chiefs only have one player like that and that’s Tamba Hali.

(more…)

As I’m sure most readers have by now concluded, the 2011 Chiefs offense struggled some. One interesting stat to look at in this area are 2011 Drive Stats as computed by Football Outsiders. Considering Brian Daboll has been named as the Chiefs new OC, I thought it might also be interesting to take a quick peek at how the Miami Dolphins offense fared last season under Daboll’s watch.

I feel it helps to compare apples to apples and start by setting forth the fact that the core identity of both the Chiefs and Dolphins is that of running teams wherein the Chiefs ranked 2nd in total carries and the Dolphins ranked 5th. So with that clearly established, let’s begin with what each team possessed up front.

As you may or may not know, the Dolphins’ starting OL, unlike the Chiefs, consists entirely of guys who were selected in the first round of their respective drafts. In light of that, one might reasonably expect them to be pretty good at controlling the LOS. Well, yes and no. In a couple of ways, the 2011 versions of each team’s OL units were somewhat similar in that each team possessed superior left tackles in Jake Long for the Phins and Branden Albert for the Chiefs (the Chiefs only 1st round OL btw) but both teams were also pretty soft in the right tackle spots through the likes of Barry Richardson and Marc Colombo. That’s pretty much where the similarities end.

The Dolphins were far and away better between the guards than were the Chiefs. For example (and regardless of what people might feel towards him as a “dirty” player), Incognito seems to have played pretty damn solidly for the Phins in the left guard slot. Similarly, C Pouncey also appears to be doing everything that was expected of him. In terms of interior line play, Vernon Carey’s production in the run game can’t really be faulted either. By contrast, the running game production of the Chiefs interior OL left much to be desired. Need I point out yet once more that going with two undersized interior linemen, UFA LG Ryan Lilja & 38 year old UFA C Casey Weigmann, alongside the 2nd year, 3rd rounder RG Jon Asamoah perhaps comes with its limitations?

The next two tables I think illustrate pretty cleanly what I’m basing all this on.

I see two things basically. The Dolphins were a better running team than the Chiefs in most categories and the Dolphins clearly excelled at running the ball between the guards. So, when it came to playcalling for the rushing game, just how smart was Brian Daboll at playing to his strengths and avoiding his weaknesses? Check out the next table.

What stands out the most to me here is that the Dolphins ran the ball between the guards 63% percent of the time as compared to a league average 50%. I think that’s pretty smart. Number one, because he understood they were good at doing that and number two, the shortest distance between point A and point B is always a straight line (spare me the nerd speak on how Relativistic Physics sometimes suggests otherwise).

What about avoiding weaknesses? Again, we see that for runs to the right side, Daboll controlled the damage by dialing way back on those. The only questionable strategy one can find here is the scaling back on runs to the left side where the Phins experienced an above average success rate. Then again, there’s the shortest distance argument coupled with the fact that all those extra carries between the guards have to come from somewhere. Compared to how Haley managed his gap preferences, Daboll seems like a genius. Point being, know thyself.

So I hear you saying out loud, well weren’t the Dolphins were more successful at running the ball simply because they were blessed with the talents of Reggie Bush while the Chiefs had to somehow make do with Jackie Battle? Sorry boys, but that dog just won’t hunt. Battle ranked 17th in DVOA and 24th in DYAR compared to Bush’s respective 30 and 29 rankings. BOOYAH!

At QB, 5th year veteran backup Matt Moore (originally signed as a UFA by the Cowboys) finished out as 26th in DVOA and 23rd in DYAR while Cassel’s rankings were 39 and 40 respectively. Moore’s completion percentage on the season was 60.5% and his passer rating was 87.1. However, for running teams like the Chiefs and Dolphins, I just don’t see Daboll as having all that signficant of an advantage with Moore. I think one can also make a fair argument that Daboll played a significant role in the success and development that Moore experienced this past season. By the same token, what positive thing can be said about Haley’s role in the development of Matt Cassel during the 2011 season?

I’m going to finish this out by finally getting to the statistical subject I hinted at in my introduction, namely Drive Stats. Note that SOS stands for for Strength of Schedule, DSR is Drive Success Ratio meaning “percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown,” non-adjusted for opponent, while discarding “take-a-knee drives at the end of a half”, and LOS/Dr is “the average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive.” So let’s take a look, shall we?

The first thing I always look at it on this is the LOS/Dr because I feel that’s a pretty fair gauge of how good of a job your special teams receiving unit is doing. It also provides some insight into how much field an offense typically has to work with; in this proverbial “game of inches,” that’s something that can matter. Here we see that the Chiefs ranked 31st in that category while the Dolphins, with the #7 rank, placed them among the elite teams in this categories. This says two things – major changes probably were indeed warranted for the Chiefs’ special teams unit and Daboll typically enjoyed a shorter field with which to work, an edge if you will.

The next thing I like to look at is SOS wherein we see that the Dolphins endured a tougher road than the Chiefs. Now the homer/skeptic might say “well wins and losses are all that really matter” noting rightly that the Dolphins went 6-10 while the Chiefs bested that with a 7-9 record. I suppose the best response to that is that a winless Dolphins team came into Arrowhead and routed a decent KC defense 31-3 with Reggie Bush averaging over 7 yards a carry. I suspect that game not only surprised Romeo Crennel some but very likely also caught his attention in terms of Daboll’s playcalling acumen.

So what’s the big take away?

Facing a tougher schedule, armed with generally inferior talent at skill positions (other than perhaps QB?), but also enjoying better interior OL play and special teams help, running a very similar style of offense, Brian Daboll outperformed Todd Haley’s Chiefs with more yards/dr, more TDs, more points, fewer punts, and a higher DSR. In light of all that, I have to feel that Daboll has a pretty good shot at success here, especially considering he will be operating within what is currently a much weaker division than what he went up against in the AFC East. That, along with a presumptive position upgrade from whomever hikes the ball for the Chiefs in 2012.

You have my Double Take.

I’d love to hear your take Addicts!

The reputation of the Super Bowl is in limbo. It’s vulnerable to becoming just the next game on the calendar. Just another game.

How many of you Chiefs fans were sitting at home watching the big game and saying to yourself, the Chiefs could beat either of these teams? Me too. Now, the current Chiefs are still Not-Ready-For-Primetime-Contention so, that’s not so much a statement for the Chiefs as it is a commentary against the premise that the “best team in the NFL” is the one who’s won the Super Bowl.

Hmmm? The “best team in the NFL” is not the winner of the Super Bowl?

Could that be true? Well yea. And: if the Super Bowl can’t produce a meaningful champion, then the game is in limbo, as far as I’m concerned.

So many times I’d say… Flowers could have made that play… Bowe would have made that catch… .

This is not sour grapes. It’s actually what I was thinking. This is not so much about parity as it is that the game came across to me as… just another game.

Beyond that, the NFL and the Super Bowl have other problems to deal with. Like, what has this game of football really become about anyway?

Maybe it should be renamed!

(more…)

For this week’s look back on the 2011 season, I’m bringing in a couple of graphs that seem well suited to my particular brand of speculation and conjecture. As addicted readers will recall, the 2010 Chiefs offense took them atop the AFC West into the playoffs with a 10-6 record, owning the best running game in the league, and also sending Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe, Brian Waters, and Jamaal Charles to the Pro Bowl– not a single defensive player among the bunch.

The 2011 Chiefs offense… not so much.

Now I will be the first to admit that we probably would not have made it to the playoffs last year without the underutilized services of Jamaal Charles (and in spite of the much-overutilized services of one Thom “Thumb” Jones) but one cannot also overlook the fact that Matt Cassel also enjoyed, statistically speaking, the best season of his career with 27 TDs and only 5 INTs over the course of only 14 games. Those numbers were achieved through a limited-attempt, high percentage, highly efficient passing game that simply supplemented a very good run game.

Below I’ve charted, courtesy Football Outsiders stats, the 2010 Chiefs week-to-week DVOA rankings (upper graph) against those of the 2011 Chiefs (lower graph).

I’m probably as guilty as anyone of this, but is it really fair to conclude that Jamaal Charles was the sole reason for the success of the 2010 Chiefs offense and his absence the reason for the failure of the 2011 Chiefs offense? If so, does that adequately explain Matt Cassel’s 2010 DVOA final ranking (16th best QB in the league) to where he ended up in 2011 (39th)? While it’s tempting to think that Jamaal Charles’ presence lifted all boats, when one then goes back and looks at Cassel’s ranking from 2009 (37th), I think it should at least leave them scratching their head just a little bit, because that was also the year in which Charles first got our attention as a major offensive force to be dealt with. In other words, Cassel’s boat didn’t seem to rise all that much in 2009.

The only real difference I can see is that Cassel probably benefited a lot from the combination of Charlie Weis’ mentoring and tailored play calling.

I think it’s also probably very reasonable to believe that the marriage between Weis and the Chiefs organization started to go sour at some point. My best guess is that the most likely reason for his late season departure was most likely because Todd Haley couldn’t resist the temptation to go ahead and “fix” some things that Weis already had working. I mean, after all, who can forget Haley’s third quarter benching of Cassel in the Tennessee game and Weis’ reported displeasure with said “coaching moment?”

Okay, so I’ll go back to the first graph above and speculate some about when Haley might have taken a little too much control presumably and initiated Weis’ winter of discontent? Argue if you like. I welcome it.

Did you find it?

Based on the week-to-week performance of the Chiefs’ 2010 offense, I’m going to go ahead and suggest that Haley’s meddling in the playcalling probably began somewhere around Week 7 or 8 and very likely started to become intolerable (for Weis) by Week 13, in which our offense could only muster 10 points at home against the nearly defenseless Broncos. In Week 14, they were kept out of the end zone completely in that 31-0 road rout against the Chargers. Week 16 is when Haley made his bizarre move to bench Cassel in a 34-14 win over the Titans. Let’s not forget that Weis also announced his resignation in the week that followed the Cassel benching.  Is it too wild to think that Charlie must have said to himself at that point, “now I can really say I’ve seen it all?”

Then, of course, there was the now well-established incident of Weis “holding court” at his favorite Northland pizza parlor. But I digress.

I say things have never been the same for Cassel, nor the offense he leads, ever since Haley apparently started down the path of unplugging Weis from what was becoming a pretty efficient offense. One also has to wonder whether Brian Waters’s “mutual decision” to leave the Chiefs following the 2010 season had anything to do with the veteran lineman’s having been around the league long enough to know that he, like Weis, had also seen enough and that nothing good could ever come of Haley’s offensive (pun intended) tactics?

Enough of my wistful thoughts on Weis. Good luck to the Jayhawks, I say.

To close this out, let’s take a step back and try to get some sense of what seems to have transpired on the team development front over the last couple of years.

First off, I think it’s fair to say that our defense, even with the emergence and then subsequent loss of Eric Berry, has had its up and downs since the arrival of Romeo Crennel. In 2010, the Chiefs’ defense progressed and basically played very well through the first half of the season, but then kind of dropped off the screen in the latter half of the season. I believe the reason for this is that opposing teams knew that Brandon Flowers could cover and then came around to the fact that Brandon Carr was damn excellent in coverage as well. After that happened, the Chiefs’ inability to defend the run was fully exposed and thoroughly exploited.

In 2011, we lost Barry from the get-go, which further impaired our ability to limit the run. But week-by-week, the 2011 Chiefs defense steadily began to develop into a unit, that while not very good at collapsing the pocket or stuffing the run, could nevertheless keep teams from running all over them all day long, which, even with an impaired offense, would keep us in most games. I feel that even those 5 blow out losses were more the result of turnovers and miscues snowballing into catastrophes rather than run-first offenses having their way with the Chiefs’ defense.

Special Teams started off 2010 very impressively and went steadily downhill after that, only occasionally flashing signs of life in 2011. Steve Hoffman is no longer with the team and that’s probably for the best.

As mentioned earlier, our offense began its descent during Haley’s “3rd quarter” of the 2010 season and has really languished all through 2011. Matt Cassel only had one really outstanding appearance this year, that being against the 0-16 Colts. Yes, the Chiefs missed Jamaal Charles sorely in 2011. But I think it’s also not outside the realm of possibility to say that they also miss the talents of a guy like Charlie Weis a whole bunch too! Let’s all hope Crennel and Pioli can strike that kind of gold with their next OC hire.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take, Addicts?

Following is Part II of a two-part post. Part I: The Patriot Way Or The Patriot Waste and
Part II: The Effects The Patriot Waste Has Had On The Kansas City Chiefs. Read Part I here.

Part II: The Effects The Patriot Waste Has Had On The Kansas City Chiefs

What effect has the Patriot Waste had on the Kansas City Chiefs?

Scott Pioli, Joel Collier, Matt Cassel, Mike Vrabel, Ryan O’Callaghan, Steve Maneri, Matt Gutierrez and Darrell Robertson. They’re all ex-Patriots who came to the Chiefs in the past three years. Have they made the Chiefs better or not? And, at what cost?

Vrabel had one good year. Cassel is still too inconsistent to evaluate, or the offensive line hasn’t been good enough yet to fairly evaluate him. Two schools of thought and school’s still out on that one. However, no one else has made a noticeable difference. Ask yourself, have these Patriots wasted the Chiefs’ time… or have the Chiefs invested wisely?

The Chiefs’ GM, Scott Pioli, talks a lot about principles and finding the right kind of guys. Pioli’s own interpretation or rendition of the Patriot Way comes through specifically when he’s drafting and signing players who are passionate about the game, but it doesn’t hold much significance; it’s mostly verbiage. Drew Magary, in his article called, “The Patriot Way is Now a Load of $hit” says,

“When Sports Illustrated takes a poll and finds that 97 percent of retired players or whatever have no regret about their playing days despite missing three functional limbs and half a brain, that should be a signal to you that most players in the league are just as passionate about football as supposedly MEGA-PASSIONATE players like Tim Tebow (drafted by Josh McDaniels)… In fact, McDaniels and Pioli took the Patriot Way and distorted it into something far more ineffective and idiotic. ”

There never was a blueprint to the Patriot Way; Scott Pioli may have just concocted one. That could also explain Pioli’s need for secrecy, because there’s really nothing in the vault. It’s empty.

Now, the Chiefs have hired Ted Crews to be their vice president of communications. Clearly, the Chiefs, and Scott Pioli, need someone to reshape a dwindling perception of the organization because right now, it’s not good. Not good at all. While the hiring of Crews may be helpful in the long run — to assist the Chiefs in repairing a damaged external view of the Chiefs — it won’t necessarily help to repair their internal woes.

(more…)

The following is a two part post. Part I is The Patriot Way Or The Patriot Waste and
Part II is The Effects The Patriot Waste Has Had On The Kansas City Chiefs

Part I: The Patriot Way Or The Patriot Waste?

Did the Chiefs get any bang for their buck? It’s been three years since Scott Pioli brought the Patriot Way to Kansas City. So, are they any better for it?

Did Clark Hunt make a mistake when he hired Scott Pioli? Did Hunt erroneously buy into the idea that Pioli was a golden boy who could bring his Midas touch and– abracadabra– the Chiefs would be Super Bowl contenders?

Scott Pioli’s first three years here have not been a grand success and, by his own admission, he acknowledges that the Todd Haley hiring was not a mistake. Yet, Haley is gone baby gone and our Chiefs are doing their best impression of a toxic dump site.

So: what is the Patriot Way and has it actually helped the Chiefs?

It’s an idea that’s been misinterpreted and filled with conjecture and, because it hasn’t been understood by fans, it’s been turned into a mystical, enviable, gospel-like football ideology.

In the real world of everyday NFL football, it has been the cause of a lot of study and tons of speculation, not to mention that half the league is trying to copy it.

As a result, a great number of employees have been hired away from the New England Patriots but, none, not a single player, head coach or executive, has been able to reproduce the so-called magic of the Patriot Way, elsewhere. Zero Super Bowl wins. Zero Super Bowl appearances.

Because there are so many ex-Patriot coaches, players and executives strewn across the league who have faltered… the Patriot Way should be called… the Patriot Waste.

As for the Chiefs, they’ve expended so much time, energy and personnel resources trying to “be like Mike,” or in this case, the Pats.

However, the Patriot Way phenomenon could be completely explained away with the simple knowledge that 31 teams don’t have a quarterback named Tom Brady, and never will.

So: what is the Patriot Way?

To find out, we must separate what the Patriots Way really is from what is likely only myth.

(more…)

This is a series I started way back when and that I bust out every once in a while.  The premise is simple. I list five unlikely and fantastical ways that I would like to see the Kansas City Chiefs win a game in the upcoming season. This column used to have a lot more meaning because, quite frankly, the Chiefs winning a game by normal means used to be pretty fantastical itself. Now that they are winning, however, perhaps this will be even more fun.

Or maybe not.

Let’s get to it.

(more…)

Tamba may be the man but guys like Glenn Dorsey, Jovan Belcher, Derrick Johnson and Wallace Gilberry did their fair share of creating pressure on opposing QB's in 2010.

As we get ever closer to the NFl Draft, lists of team needs are thrown around like candy at a parade. Look up any list of team needs for the Kansas City Chiefs and you are almost guaranteed to see something similar to this:

WR

NT

OLB (pass rusher)

OT

One thing I always try to look out for while writing for AA is that I don’t allow myself to slip too far into the communities “group think.”

What does that mean?

When you get any group of people together to talk about a subject for any long period of time, I feel that group think tends to start to take over. What I mean by that is factions start to form where part of the group believes one thing. We certainly disagree about a lot around here but we also talk Chiefs so much that I think sometimes we, as a group, determine something to be absolutely true. Once everyone pretty much agrees, the idea tends to become fact among most of the group. At that point, I think we begin to lose a little bit of perspective.

Some commonly held beliefs around AA that I can think of off the top of my head are:

(more…)

Today may be the most important Thursday of the NFL season for the Kansas City Chiefs.

There are a couple of things that are going to happen today that could have a big impact on the team’s playoff chance.

The first will be the status of QB Matt Cassel at today’s practice. While Cassel returned in a limited capacity yesterday, the reviews on his throws were mixed. He attempted mostly short passes with solid accuracy and zip. His few long pass attempts, however, were reported to be lacking velocity. Cassel was also reported to be lacking his usual speed in running drills.

The question is how much Cassel’s healing wounds are limiting him on the field. The team may have just been taking a cautious approach yesterday to see how Cassel responded to limited action. If the soreness was at a minimum, we will likely see Cassel increase his practice reps today as the team prepares for the St. Louis Rams. The team will release a practice report later today.

(more…)

Way back June 22, I made five early predictions about the Kansas City Chiefs.

Over five months later, I thought it would be fun to revisit those predictions and decide whether or not I was a clairvoyant genius, a fool or just lucky. Come, let’s travel back in time…

Predicition #1: Dexter McCluster is going to be a star

Ok I wasn’t right about this one but I wasn’t wrong either. McCluster looked as if he was slowly blossoming into a pretty good player before his high ankle sprain. He had a big hand in at least two of the team’s wins this year before going down to injury so that counts for something, doesn’t it?

Here is what I said about Dex in June:

“All of this indicates that McCluster is disciplined and fundamentally sound thus making his transition from college to the pros easier for him. Sure, there is going to be a learning curve and all rookies make mistakes but McCluster appears to be poised to make an impact sooner rather than later.”

I was right there. Dex made an impact in his very first game, returning a punt for a TD, which turned out to be the difference in KC’s opening day victory against the Chargers.

He isn’t a star yet but there is still time. If he comes back next week and helps the Chiefs make the playoffs, I could still nail this one.

More after the jump:

(more…)

Source: Yardbarker.com

All season long, Kansas CityChiefs coach Todd Haley has been beating the same drum. He refuses to admit his team is good.

I agree with Haley’s strategy. The Chiefs are woefully shallow at a number of positions and it seems many of their solid starters are barely above the legal drinking age. The Chiefs have a ton of ascending players and Dwayne Bowe is a perfect example that you can’t allow players to think they’ve arrived too early. Herm never really pushed Bowe and it took Haley over a year to get him right. Whether or not Bowe keeps it up remains to be seen but what Haley has done is pushed Bowe to his potential.  He is doing the same thing with the rest of the team.

More after the jump.

(more…)

Smith. Perv Smith. (source: kcchiefsblog.com)

So wait, the Chiefs actually are a good team now?  When did this happen?  I feel like this team totally re-writes its story every few weeks.  It’s like one of those choose-your-own-adventure books.

After the Buffalo/Oakland/Denver three game stretch, I thought any delusions about us being a legit team could be safely put to rest.  I chided myself for letting this team trick me into thinking they were ready to contend.  A win over Arizona at home didn’t change anything for me.  That was a game almost every team in the NFL would’ve won.

This week was different.  Seattle may not be good, but they’re not terrible either.  I think we can safely call them average.  Beating an average team on the road doesn’t make you a Super Bowl contender, but it does mean something.  You know who scores 42 points against average teams on the road?  Good teams.  Yesterday, the Kansas City Chiefs showed they can be a good team

This was Matt Cassel’s best game of the season.  I know some of you have been clinging to your bizarre insistence that he was great against Denver, but you’re probably the same people who think Tyson Jackson is right on track.  We can all get on the same page about what we saw yesterday.  Cassel was damn-near perfect.  When he escaped from trouble and rolled out to find Dwayne Bowe on third down, I felt like I was seeing a new man.  That was the best play I’ve ever seen him make.  He looked like a pro bowl quarterback.

Before the season started I wrote that the Chiefs’ best chance of success would be to turn back the clock not to the halcyon days of the 90s, but to the early-to-mid 2000s.  I thought this team would have some similarities to the Vermeil years.  Then the season started, the defense carried a bumbling offense, and I looked like an idiot.

Redemption for your boy Big Matt after the jump

(more…)

Arrowhead Addict’s “Put Up Or Shut Up” Season Predictions

The NFL season is upon us and things will get kicked off on Thursday night when the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints clash in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game.

This week at AA, we will be going on the record with our season predictions. Over the course of the week, each AA staff member will “Put Up Of Shut Up” with their thoughts on how the NFL season is going to play out. Once the season is finished, we’ll compare these predictions to see which staff member gets bragging rights or the offseason.

Up next is Big Matt.

AFC East: Jets
AFC North:Ravens
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chargers

(more…)

Source: Yardbarker.com

The Kansas City Chiefs are very tight lipped when it comes to injuries to their payers which is why it was a bit of a shock the other day when the team announced that they were moving WR Jerheme Urban to IR, ending his season.

Well now an article in the Victoria Advocate has revealed that Urban suffered a torn flexor tender in his ring finger on his right hand during the last preseason game against the Green Bay Packers.

Urban hopes to resume training in late Noveber or Early December.

Check out the full article here.

Source: Yardbarker.com

The Kansas City Chiefs have a number of young, up and coming players heading in to the 2010 season. Chances are, by the end of the season, someone will emerge as the team MVP.

Last year it looked like no one was going to step up until Larry Johnson went on a hateful Twitter tirade, officially ending his career in KC and opening the door for Jamaal Charles to distinguish himself as one of the best young running back prospects in the league.Charles was fantastic in the 2nd half of 09′ and he was the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal offense.

Who will it be this year? There are plenty of candidates. There are veteran additions Thomas Jones, Ryan Lilja, Chris Chambers and Casey Weigmann. There are hungry rookies like Eric Berry, Dexter McCluster, Javier Arenas and Jon Asamoah. Then you the players with something to prove. Guys like Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers, Tamba Hali, Dwayne Bowe, Glenn Dorsey, Matt Cassel and Tyson Jackson. Throw in a couple of young guys who showed major potential in 09′ in Andy Studebaker and Jovan Belcher and you have a very good chance that one or more of these guys is going to step up and prove they are one of the team’s most valuable players.

Whoever it is, they will have to work hard to unseat Charles who appears to be on the verge of super-stardom.

What do you think Addicts? Who will be this year’s team MVP?

This is a real picture of me by the way. (Photo Source: edgewatertech.com)

These are my ludicrously early predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2010.

1. Dexter McCluster is going to be a star.

Not only that, he is going to be a star this season. All the reports I have read coming out of OTA is that nearly every practice, McCluster did something to impress those watching him. He either made a spectacular catch, ran a perfect route or wowed the coaches with his footwork and fundamentals.

All of this indicates that McCluster is disciplined and fundamentally sound thus making his transition from college to the pros easier for him. Sure, there is going to be a learning curve and all rookies make mistakes but McCluster appears to be poised to make an impact sooner rather than later.

With Bowe and Chambers helping to stretch the field, McCluster is going to be a prime outlet target for Matt Cassel. The goal will be to use McCluster’s speed and elusiveness to get plenty of yards after the catch. He’ll present a problem to defenses as both a speedy deep threat and a dangerous underneath receiver who can turn a 5 yard pass into a 30 yard gain.

If used properly, McCluster could be a serious rookie of the year candidate.

#2. Brandon Flowers will make the Pro Bowl.

And if he doesn’t he will be darn close. As long as Flowers doesn’t level off and there is no reason to believe that he will, he should put together a Pro Bowl worthy season. 2 years of experience, combined with improved support in the Chiefs secondary, should give Flowers the tools he needs to go from good to really good.

If Flowers can become a shutdown corner, he is going to make things easier on Rome Crennel and the rest of the defense. If receivers find themselves stuck on “The Island of Flowers,” © the Chiefs will be able to double team their opponents 2nd and 3rd receivers, which should prolong plays and cause more picks and more sacks.

(more…)

Source: Yardbarker.com

Today we continue our series “Position Battles,” where we will be setting out very own Arrowhead Addict depth chart. It is a chance for Addict Nation to weigh in on who we think the starters should be heading in to training camp.

Last week we tackled the running back position.

Here are the results:

1. Jamaal Charles

2. Thomas Jones

3. Dexter McCluster

4. Kolby Smith/Kestahn Moore

5. Jackie Battle

6.  Javaris Williams

Obviously, the Chiefs won’t be going in to the season with 7 halfbacks. Most of the votes went to Charles and Jones, with Charles being the overwhelming favorite. After the Charles, Jones 1, 2 punch, Addict Nation wants Dexter McCluster to get the call.

Chances are McCluster will be listed as a receiver but he is likely to get a handful of carries each game. That means whoever ends up behind Charles and Jones on the real depth chart won’t see much action unless there is an injury.

Today we move on to the fullback position. The Chiefs haven’t had a Pro Bowl caliber FB since the great Tony Richardson left. Mike Cox has been doing a workman like job for the Chiefs the last couple of years.

Currently, Cox is the only player listed as a FB on the roster. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackie Battle got a look given his size. Battle is 6-2, 238. Tim Castille may also get a look at FB coming in at 5-11, 238. Rookie Tervaris Johnson is an option at 6-2, 248. Cox is the biggest of the group, weighing in at 6-0, 252.

By comparison, Tony Richardson is 6-1, 238.

Time to pick your starter:

I am looking to add 1, possibly 2 writers to our staff. AA staff members are not paid but if you enjoy writing and you are passionate about the Chiefs, this site can gain you a lot of exposure. It is also a lot of fun.

Since the position is not paid, you will only be required to write a minimum of 1 post per week. This is a great opportunity to share your thoughts and views on all things KC Chiefs with the AA community. Reliability is just as important to me as the quality of your writing so if you don’t think you can commit to 1 post a week, every week, please do not submit.

How to apply:

Please send a sample article of 500 words or more to:

Patrick.ArrowheadAddict@gmail.com

You may cover any topic you like as long as your work has a Chiefs focus and meets the minimum of 500 words.

If you are being considered for the position, I will post your article on the main page to see how the community responds to your work.

The submission deadline is Sunday, June 13th at midnight.  I look forward to reading your submissions.

Good luck!

By submitting your work to Arrowhead Addict, you are giving us permission to post your work to the site. Your work belongs to you and does not become property of Arrowhead Addict. All submissions should include the name  you would like to attach to your work. You may use your real name or an online handle if you so choose.

Last week Chiefs head coach Todd Haley was speaking about the team’s situation at tight end.

To say the situation is muddled would be an understatement. After the signing of rookie Cody Slate on Friday, the Chiefs now have six tight ends on their roster.

Career NFL catches from those half-dozen TEs? That number would be 86, with 68 from starter Leonard Pope (left), 16 by the still rehabbing Brad Cottam and two from last year’s draft choice Jake O’Connell. Slate, Tony Moeaki and Leroy Banks are all rookies.

Haley makes it plain what he’s seeking for the position is versatility – he wants a tight end that can block and catch.

“I think tight end is a critical position for the offense,” Haley said of the scheme that he and coordinator Charlie Weis are piecing together for use in the 2010 season. “When you have tight ends that are versatile, that can be strong in the run game and equally strong in the pass game – those complete tight ends put the defense in a little bit of a bind.

“That’s where some of the matchup issues come into play.”

Tight End Is Wide Open … Monday Cup O’Chiefs-BobGretz.com

(more…)

Source: pastaparade.com

But it still sucks. It is a 71 up from a 68.

The Chiefs will be better in Madden this season despite this rating. Madden is all about speed in my opinion and guys like Charles, Berry and McCluster are sure to be blazing.

The +3 rating is one of the highest for any team. The only team receiving higher than a plus 3 was the Redskins who got a +6.

For the Chiefs be better in Madden (and in real life) they have the players already on the team improve. Guys like Andy Studebaker and Jovan Belcher need to improve and make a name for themselves. Right now they are just nobody’s who are bringing the rating down.

What do you think, Addicts? Do the additions of Berry, McCluster, Jones, Weigmann, Lilja, Arenas and Asamoah deserve more than a +3?

Source: Yardbarker.com

Morning Addicts! Make sure you check out this first quote and then go read the rest of the article. It is an excerpt from a book by Haley mentor Bill Parcells. It is a speech he gave to the rookies when he was coaching the Jets. If I didn’t know, I would have sworn this was Todd Haley talking. It is really interesting so check it out.

Here is your Morning Fix:

Here’s some of that speech from the book The Final Season – My Last Year As Head Coach In The NFL:

“This weekend is an orientation of sorts. This is a time where we try to get to know you guys and explain to you the best of our ability how we do things and what we expect from you. To try to teach you in a short period of time the things we think will assist you in your efforts to make the team. In my experience those people who accept these ideas succeed. Those that don’t accept them usually have very little chance. It’s in both of our best interests that every one of you players succeed. So we’re gonna try to be on the same page with you.

“We’re not interested in players who have problems. We want you to put all the problems you have behind you. I don’t need guys who have pregnant girlfriends that are calling them on the phone and all that shit. I am told old for it and I don’t care about it. I want guys who can concentrate on being a football player. Get focused … put the problems away.

“When you come back for training camp we have a conditioning test. If you don’t pass the test, you’re probably not gonna be here very long. It’s important to me as the head coach. I want well-conditioned players at the proper weight with good stamina and endurance. Everything you do from here on out is evaluated. Don’t try to be inconspicuous because we’re gonna look for you. Everything you do is part of the evaluation process. We base our evaluations on a few things.

Rookies Will Get An Earful … Friday Cup O’Chiefs-BobGretz.com

(more…)

Rookie Colin Brown 61 and lineman of the Kansas City Chiefs goes through a drill during rookie minicamp at the Chiefs practice facility on May 9 2009. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

Thanks to a timely tweet by Chiefs first round draft pick, Eric Berry, I was reminded that KC’s rookies will be arriving at Arrowhead today and will start Rookie Mini Camp tomorrow. This is a time for the coaches to get a look at their new guys, on their own terms. It is also an opportunity for the coaching staff to mine their undrafted free agents  for a potential diamond in the rough.

What can we expect from Mini Camp? I took a look at some reports from last year’s camp to get an idea of what the new meat can expect when they hit the field tomorrow.

Day 1 will serve as sort of a mini combine. The players will get measured, weighed and put through the paces. They’ll do some bench presses, vertical jumps, raw jumps and 40-yard dashes.

Haley and company will also likely test the rookies by throwing a lot of information at them and watching how well they respond. Last year, after day 1, Haley was quoted as saying that the rookie’s heads were “spinning.”

It makes sense that the Chiefs want see how quickly the rookies can pick things up and get to work. Day 1 is important for the new guys as day 2 is structured sort of like a training camp practice.

More on day 2 after the jump.

(more…)

Apparently Scott Pioli and Todd Haley could not and did not either.  That is why, by recent accounts, they drafted players, (and are signing UDFAs), who were captains of their squads (6 of the 7 drafted were captains of their squad; the only exception being Cameron Sheffield).  Scott Pioli and Todd Haley know that not only do they need great players, but they need great leaders, captains, and “Chiefs” (not just Indians). These types of “Chiefs” uplift and motivate the players, and we all know that momentum is the name of the game in the NFL.  Right?

More after the jump.

(more…)

In reacting to Pioli’s draft this year for the Chiefs, now that I have had some time to reflect, I am reminded of the extensive debate we have had over the draft this season on this blog.  Some of us, mainly me, argued specifically for Clausen as the Chiefs best option.  Others, mainly everyone else, argued in favor of NT Dan Williams or any assortment of offensive line help.  While these were debates over specific players, at their core was a basic fundamental difference in how to build a football team.  My philosophy is that you start with the quarterback and you build around him.  Others have the classic Chiefs philosophy of building from the trenches out.  Much as I favor my point of view, I think both sides have merits and reason to them.

Well, I think the joke is on all of us, because in this draft, Pioli did neither.  More after the jump. (more…)

Seriously, though, what if Berry is that good? What if Berry is a hall of famer? The best safety ever to step on a football field? Then a safety is the best player on our team. Can you think of a Super Bowl-winning team where a safety was far and away the best player? Even Ed Reed, Paul Krause and Ronnie Lott weren’t the best players on their Championship teams.

I have warmed up to Berry a ton in the past 48 hours (partially due to Lombardi, among others), but I have also been reminded of how far away we are from the Super Bowl. Given just how horrid the AFC West is, and it is effing awful, we will not be seeing a top-five pick again any time soon. We could really use another one given the current trajectory of our other recent top-fivers — Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.

Jamaal Charles is going to have to become a superstar for us, and I think he can be one. But we will need more than that. I don’t know, maybe Berry and Ryan Lilja will be two of the ingredients that start this New England-like transformation where the entire team looks better because of improved character, chemistry, depth and overall talent. Not sure. I just know that safeties aren’t usually picked that high, and that I have yet to see one carry a team to a Super Bowl.

Then again, Darren Sharper definitely put the Saints over the hump. Can Matt Cassell play Drew Brees? Even a poor homeless man’s Drew Brees? Then again, Reggie Bush might be a homeless man’s Jamaal Charles. What about Todd Haley, how does he stack up to fellow Parcells apprentice Sean Payton? Dwayne Bowe to Marques Colston?

I think too much, but it’s NFL Draft weekend and I wanted to share my thoughts on Berry. Besides, I’m the kinda control freak who’s never gonna be happy. At least Chiefs fans got their consensus first-round pick and Tim Tebow got to be closer to god in Denver. Speaking of closer to god, anybody seen Al Davis? Oakland’s draft strategy has seemed strangely off, or should I say on, so far.

At the 2009 NFL Draft Party, I remember watching Scott Pioli coming out for an interview in anticipation of the Draft. Taking questions from Mitch Holthus, there was a slight tension in the air — part of it was excitement to finally see the new GM up close and personal. But another part of the tension was a genuine anger, eminating from people even from my table. It was still fairly soon after Pioli had traded away future Hall of Famer TE Tony Gonzalez for a 2010 2nd rounder.

Pioli assured Holthus that while it would be an effort to find the Right 53, it was also a poker chip that could be used in future trades and aquisitions. But none of that came to pass. Pioli did the right thing, in my opinion, in holding onto this pick with all his strength, refusing to bow to the pick burning a hole in his pocket.

But what good has this “2b” brought for us? A project nickelback who returns kicks? After drafting McCluster? After already beefing up the secondary with Berry?

This was the pick so important, Pioli refused to trade it away for now-Ravens WR Anquan Boldin.  Just as I wrote this post, the Ravens have selected Alabama NT Terrance Cody, after the Chiefs passed up on him twice in the second round.

I’m not nearly at the point to where I proclaim “the Right 53″ is a farce. I still have a ton of faith in this team and this regime. But a lot of the skepticism that subsided when the Berry pick hit the airwaves is slowly starting to seep back.

I want Tony Gonzalez back.

What do you think?

The most maddening example comes from an otherwise great article by Michael Ash at Warpaint Illustrated:

Someone might say “If Cassel plays badly, can’t we just draft a quarterback next year?” That’s certainly a possibility. But it’s also possible that the Chiefs won’t find themselves in a position to do so.

The 2010 schedule has seven games against teams that are picking in the top 10 of this year’s draft. Even if Cassel doesn’t play any better, the easier schedule alone might account for a few extra wins. That could push the Chiefs’ first-round draft pick past the point where the top quarterbacks are taken. [...]

So will Pioli take any steps to avoid this potential disaster? Much like San Diego did a few years ago with Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, the Chiefs could draft a quarterback, sit him, and see what happens with the incumbent starter.

But I can’t see Pioli doing it.

The refrain won’t stop. The logic is there for the pick but Pioli won’t take Clausen because he simply won’t do it. Pioli passed on Sanchez. Pioli didn’t make a play for Quinn. Pioli won’t do it.

I don’t care. There are picks that make sense for this team, there are picks I can live with, there are picks that I can be happy with. But nothing does this team more good for the longest amount of time than bringing in Jimmy Clausen.

And this drumbeat of mine is not going to stop in the days leading up to the Draft.

Signs for the Draft are already up in NYC. Photo Source: Patrick Allen

Big news, Addicts. We found out Friday that I have been given press credentials to the 2010 NFL Draft!

This is big news not only for AA but for the entire Fansided Network! I will be covering all 7 rounds and will be covering the action for both AA and Fansided. This is just another way we are striving to bring you the absolute best Chiefs content on the web.

We are still working out the details of just how exactly we are going to attack this so before all the plans are final, we want to open up the floor to you. Let us know in the comments what kind of coverage you would like to see us provide on draft day.

Think of me as your inside man. =)

I’m not the only one who thinks this scenario is possible. Eric Williams of The News Tribune also thinks the Clausen to Seattle possibilities have increased.

So now it appears the possibility of Seattle drafting a quarterback early has increased. Both general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll said the Charlie Whitehurst trade did not eliminate the possibility of drafting a quarterback early. Seattle holds the No. 6 and No. 14 overall picks in the draft. And with Washington at No. 4 overall out of the quarterback running, the Seahawks would be next in line in terms of teams still looking for a quarterback of the future.

“Heck no,” Carroll told the Mike Mayock of the NFL Network after Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford’s pro day. “When you look at a guy like this (Bradford), he has a chance to make you for a long time. And I don’t know if we’ll ever get a chance at him, but we’d love the opportunity.”

Carroll knows Clausen intimately, recruiting the California native since he was a freshman in high school, so if anybody knows the Notre Dame product’s upside, it’s Carroll.

The Seahawks appear to have so many other needs that it would seem likely they would pass on taking a quarterback in the first round. However, if Seattle deems Clausen a potential franchise quarterback, they might take a shot at him at No. 6.

More after the jump.

(more…)