Today is my birthday.

I am content and have few needs, but if the Chiefs are reading this, I do have a wish list.

It is as follows:

Accountability – The franchise got a fresh whiff of this with the axing of Head Coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli, but I would like to make sure the new regime enshrines this principle as a guiding force for the future.

Only two players remain from the 2009 draft class – DE Tyson Jackson and K Ryan Succop – and only one is currently working under a contract that is equitable with his on-the-field contributions. Very few of the Pioli-era free agents remain on the roster. The previous regime very often leaned on the expectation that drafted players who had shown little would develop and underachieving free agents would produce, occupying team resources long after their expiry date.

The first time a player is cut from the 2013 draft class will not be a defeat for the GM John Dorsey and Head Coach Andy Reid administration. It will be the sign of a ship being righted. All draft picks are gambles but accountability in the workplace has to be maintained, otherwise the organization loses its efficiency and its edge.

A #2 Wide Receiver – Be it Jonathan Baldwin, Dexter McCluster, Junior Hemingway or some guy whose name we don’t even know. This is something that team has not had since Trent Green laced up in red.

Leadership – Was sorely lacking on the field last year, and it was the most infuriating aspect of the lost 2012 season. The Chiefs’ talented defense crumbled when the tide appeared to be turning against the team.  The mistake-prone offense seemed to pity itself by the second quarter. This is unacceptable, and must be rooted out.

Hard Knocks – I know it’s probably bad for the team and the Chiefs have had it before, but man is it a great show and a joy for all of us obsessive fans. Word is that Cincinnati has nailed it down again, but a boy can dream.

A Quarterback Drafted in the First Round – I’m not even sure if I care if he is a good player at this point. Drafting a quarterback high displays an aggressive approach towards the future and builds hope. Recent history also shows that it is the way a franchise wins championships. I wasn’t alive the last time the Chiefs drafted a QB in the first round and the last time a QB drafted by the team won a game for them, it was the strike year and I had just been born.

More Rob Riggle – The comedian and Kansas City native has done a great job getting the team in the national spotlight and is hilarious to boot. I want more. Invite Paul Rudd and Jason Sudeikis too.

A Post-Season Win – Showing up to the dance is no longer a suitable outcome in and of its self. This year will mark the 20^th anniversary of the Chiefs’ last playoff victory. Let’s make sure that record never reaches drinking age.

Jan. 11, 1970; New Orleans, LA, USA; FILE PHOTO; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Len Dawson (16) at the line of scrimmage against the Minnesota Vikings during Super Bowl IV at Tulane Stadium. The Chiefs won the game, 23-9. Mandatory Credit: Dick Raphael-USA TODAY Sports

With the slow time of the football year upon us, I decided to dig into the ultimate all-time Kansas City Chiefs roster.  During the course of the summer, I will highlight the positions of my All-Time team, starting with quarterbacks this week.  This is an exercise I have done numerous times, either during a boring lecture in college or on a slow workday.  Now I will share it with all my fellow Addicts, ready to start to the debate!

Starting Quarterback – Len Dawson

This was an easy one.  Let’s just name the accolades.  Super Bowl Winner, Super Bowl MVP, NFL Man of the Year in 1973, 3x AFL Champion, 6x AFL All-Star, 1x Pro Bowler, 2^nd Team, AFL All-Time Team, 4x All-AFL selection, 1x All-Pro, member of the Chiefs Ring of Honor and number retired by the organization.  Wow, Lenny the Cool is the king of quarterbacks of the franchise, that’s for sure.  The guy is a legend, only building to it since retiring, serving as sports director for KMBC from 1966 to 2009 and also has been the color analyst for the Chiefs Radio network currently since 1985.  Dawson retired in 1975 but is still the franchise leader in passing yardage at 28,507 and touchdowns at 237.  All of these records were set mind you when the league was not the passing league it is today.  He is also the only quarterback to lead the franchise to the Super Bowl, two in fact, winning one.  If there was a Mount Rushmore of Kansas City Sports icons, the man’s face is definitely on there.

Backup – Joe Montana

It’s odd to make any list and put Joe Montana behind anyone.  Joe Cool played only two years in Kansas City, but boy was that a magical two years.  I will admit, I was 9 when we traded for Montana, and was really getting into football as a youth at this time period.  All I wanted for my 10^th birthday was a Joe Montana Chiefs jersey, and I got it.  I think for the next two Halloween’s I was Joe Montana.  Let’s just say I wore that jersey out.  But I digress.  It’s Joe Montana, and for two years, he was our quarterback.  We will all remember the Monday Night Shootout with John Elway and the Denver Broncos that Joe won coming from behind.  What about taking on the 49er’s and beating them in Joe only game against his former team?   It is depressing that he was the last QB to guide our team to a playoff victory.  And his injury in the AFC Championship game in Buffalo is still one of my most painful sports memories.  Joe went 17-8 in the games he started for the Chiefs, including 5 fourth quarter comebacks, 2 in that amazing 1993 playoff run.  He also made his last Pro Bowl for the Chiefs after the 1993 season.

Backup – Trent Green

Trent Green quarterbacked the team during one of my favorite eras of Chiefs football.  Dick Vermeil’s high-flying offense created entertaining games with weapons like Tony Gonzalez, Priest Holmes, Eddie Kennison and Dante Hall.  Green had the benefit of having the keys to offense, and he thrived in it.  Green now sits in second place in both TD’s and yardage in franchise history.  Green also set the season yardage mark in 2004 with 4,591.  Green was a 2x Pro Bowler during his tenure with the Chiefs.  Green was a great quarterback during his tenure as Chiefs quarterback; he just never had a defense to help him, we all remember the infamous “No Punt Game” against the Colts.  His concussion against the Bengals still makes me cringe, and really ended his Chiefs career.  Green has since went into broadcasting where his knowledge of the game has helped to turn him into an excellent color commentator.

I think we’re all still trying to wrap our heads around the new regime’s first draft and its apparent strategy moving forward.

While most fans have been hoping to see the team tick as many need boxes as possible in the course of the three days at Radio City Music hall, that doesn’t appear to be the way that Chiefs GM John Dorsey does things. It seems that Dorsey views free agency as a means to fill holes, while the Draft serves to add talent, regardless of position.

The team selected SEC players with its compensatory 3^rd-rounder, its 4^th and its 5^th-round pick but the rest of players it took were from relatively small programs. 1^st overall pick OT Eric Fisher was the first player from the MAC selected that high in the conference’s history. DE/OLB Mike Catapano became the first Princeton player drafted in 12 years. NFL fans worldwide suddenly learned that there is a University of California … in Pennsylvania … after Kansas City picked C Eric Kush in the 6^th round.

Chiefs fans who were furiously googling these guys likely found very little – often not even a photograph. On one hand, the obscurity of these names showed that Dorsey and Chiefs HC Andy Reid have been doing their homework and were digging for diamonds in the rough. On the other hand, one wondered whether these guys were even on any other team’s draft boards.

I think it shows that the new regime is realistic about what it is going to get from the Draft. This is a team that counts on getting prospects – not players – from the Draft. With virtually all the team’s needs filled through free agency, late April was a time to pick up some young, unfinished products. The two big knocks against small school players is that they are difficult to evaluate due to the quality of the opponents they faced on tape and they are also expected to have a longer, tougher transition to the NFL.

But, for Fisher, Kush, Catapano, and TE Travis Kelce, that won’t be a problem, they won’t be expected to make major contributions this year. With the exception of Fisher, who will likely end up as the team’s full-time right tackle this year, the other small school guys have a line of veterans ahead of them.

Paul Frederiksen-USA TODAY Sports

However, it would be a mistake to view these guys as purely depth players. One of the biggest blind spots in Draft coverage is that commentators tend to only look at each team’s current needs and evaluate their draft on how those picks fit with what the team will need in the coming season. The reality is that actual front offices are looking much further to the 2014 and 2015 seasons – especially regimes in their first year or with solid job security.

Indeed, one of the over-looked aspects of the Chiefs’ draft was not how they added pieces for this season, but rather how it shows they are building the team for 2014.

Take a quick look at the list of Chiefs starters whose contracts will be up in the next two years and you’ll see what I mean. The notables include (presumed starters in italics):

Free Agents in 2014:

WR Dexter McCluster (slot)

TE Tony Moeaki

S Kendrick Lewis

G Jon Asamoah

G Geoff Schwartz

RB Shaun Draughn (3^rd down back)

Free Agents in 2015:

C Rodney Hudson

FB Anthony Sherman

WR Jonathan Baldwin

DE Allen Bailey

RB Nate Eachus

QB Alex Smith

Looking at this list and projecting that most of the 2013 draft class will sit this year now makes sense. All three of the Chiefs’ starting interior O-linemen are up for free agency in the next two years and the only one who we have under contract until 2015 is Hudson, who is a bit of a question mark coming off of a broken leg. In this situation, it makes perfect sense to take a high-upside center from a small school knowing that he may have to step in at one of those three interior roles in the next two years.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Similarly, despite the fact that the Chiefs already had two good blocking/pass-catching tight ends in Moeaki and Anthony Fasano, it makes perfect sense to draft Kelce knowing that Moeaki is injury-prone and in a contract year. Kelce may not see the field this year, but his presence on the roster gives the team options at TE next year when Moeaki will be looking at the door. Depending on how Moeaki plays and his health holds up, he may be disposable or he may be valuable, but the team will have a better bargaining hand with Fasano locked up long-term and a young, dynamic tight end in the wings who will be playing on a cheap, multi-year contract.

The same goes for the running back position behind RB Jamaal Charles. Third-round pick Knile Davis was the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiefs draft. He’s been banged up and last put up good tape in 2011. Spending a year in the meeting rooms as the #4 RB will hopefully allow him to heal up and be ready to take up the reins as the contracts for the two guys ahead of him come to an end.

Both De’Quan Menzie (who spent his rookie season on IR) and 5^th-round pick Sanders Commings project as CB/S hybrids and both have the big bodies and hard-hitting style to make them potential replacements for Lewis, who is oft-injured and also in a contract year.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I should say that I don’t necessarily expect these draft picks to replace all of the incumbents, but you have to admire the cleverness and forethought that Dorsey brings to this front office. No matter what happens this season, he has already set up the team to have flexibility and depth at positions where it will potentially be vulnerable after the next round of free agency.

The one big looming 2015 free agent on that list is obviously Smith and anyone’s guess is as good as mine what the team’s opinion of him will be when February 2015 rolls around. He may have just won us a championship; he may have proven to be garbage without the mentorship of 49ers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

I also have absolutely no idea what to expect out of UDFA QB Tyler Bray. He may turn into something, he may turn into nothing. What I do know is that the team wagered absolutely nothing on him so even if his ceiling is that of an average backup, it will have been a sound move.

One way or the other, given that Smith is 29, don’t be surprised to see a quarterback taken high in next year’s draft regardless of how he plays in 2013. His contract will be up the following year and this is just how Dorsey rolls.

In a strange way, this past draft – one of the most boring in recent memory – was the most interesting.

Four days ago, the new tandem of Head Coach Andy Reid and General Manager John Dorsey practically had a tabula rasa in the eyes of Chiefs fans. We could speculate on how they would change the franchise based on past decisions on different clubs. But, even there, they were not the sole decision-makers. This offseason is the first real peephole into how they will run this team for however long they are allowed to do so.

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The main theme? When Dorsey says “best player available” he means best player available, regardless of position or the grades of other teams. The first pick that illustrated this was the first pick of the 2013 Draft.

We may never know how the trade negotiations between Dorsey and Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland went (although I’d like to think it was similar in tenor to the way that the Amateur Hour Podcast role-played it out), but we know those talks did not end in a trade of LT Brandon Albert to Miami. For the past three months, the greatest certainty in our predictions of what the Chiefs would do at 1^st overall hinged on Albert’s fate.

Our good-but-not-great tackle was not traded by the time the Chiefs were required to turn in their card and select their first player. Nonetheless, the team picked another left tackle in Eric Fisher. Value is value in Dorsey’s eyes, and even without having moved the team’s current LT, he wanted to make the most of that pick and grabbed the guy who he felt was the best prospect in this Draft.

Then, after a very long wait for those who were watching the whole proceedings unfold, the Chiefs selected a tight end. This, also, was clearly not a need-driven pick. While he may not have sparkled quite as much since his magical 2010 season, TE Tony Moeaki, who was on IR throughout 2011, still has the potential to be a productive two-way TE in this league. Similarly, the new regime quickly signed TE Anthony Fasano in free agency who is similarly one of the best block-and-catch tight ends.

So, why pick TE Travis Kelce, who fits the same mold, at the top of the 3^rd round? Well, obviously, Dorsey would not have used his second pick in the Draft on him unless he thought Kelce could be as good or better than what we already have on the team. The fact is that – paired with decent quarterbacks or no – Moeaki has produced very little outside of that 2010 season. More to the point, Dorsey is looking for value wherever he finds it. Kelce was high on his board and still available, so he took him, no questions asked.

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

What followed was probably the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiefs 2013 draft: RB Knile Davis. In a draft that was thick with running backs in the mid rounds, Davis was expected by many to be an undrafted free agent. But, on the other hand, he fits Reid’s system perfectly. Line up the tape of Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and the former Razorback Davis and  you see plenty of similarities. Just like with McCoy, the commentating class are questioning Davis’ top end speed, and his ability to get it done with his small frame.

But, whether you like it or not, these are the kinds of guys that Coach Reid covets. He is looking for slightly undersized quick guys with vision to for the hole. McCoy has become a stud in this league and he was picked in the middle of the second round. Davis, who clocked in with a 4.37 40 time at the combine, got grabbed at the bottom of the 3^rd. I’m not saying that he will be as good as McCoy, but I don’t think this pick was as surprising as many made it out to be. He is consistent with the model of an Andy Reid running back, and he may have been the only pure Reid guy in this draft.

After picking three players that landed in currently crowded position groups, the new regime then ticked a need by selecting Alabama LB Nico Johnson at the top of the 4^th round. Initially, I wasn’t crazy about this pick. Basically all evaluations described him as a purely run-stuffing two-down linebacker who might be stout in the early downs but would be a liability in coverage. Immediately , this reminded me of the late Jovan Belcher, whose murderous departure from both life and team punctuated the Chiefs’ worst season in recent memory.

That tragic mess aside, we were already talking this time last year about the need to replace him or at least give him significant competition as we needed a guy able to chase down tight ends and wide receivers on 1^st and 2^nd down and he was particularly exposed in those situations. Nico Johnson doesn’t give us much more in that department.

However, we also have a new defensive coordinator and scheme. We are yet to see how DC Bob Sutton plans to use Nico and the rest of the defense, so it is possible that by getting the best “thumper” LB in the draft, the Chiefs put the last piece in place.

Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

In a similar vein, the choice of CB Sanders Commings in the 5^th round seemed strange, but after looking at his highlight tape, it became quickly clear that the Chiefs likely viewed him as more of a safety prospect than a CB that would add to our full stable of cornerbacks. Commings is a big, fast and physical guy who didn’t show the skills to be one of the top-rated cornerbacks, but he definitely has the talent to step in the place of the Chiefs’ oft-injured FS Kendrick Lewis.

Either way, I think there will now be some genuine competition in the defensive backfield and the same way that Reid says he likes to put his best five offensive linemen on the field, I think we will see the best five DB’s on the field in nickel situations, which could lead to some really interesting combinations.

Also, having five very good D-backs allows you to take your run-stuffing ILB off the field … a plan seems to be emerging here.

The last three picks in rounds 6 and 7 I believe have to be viewed as special teamers and practice squad guys until proven otherwise. Generally, the selection of a fullback screams “special teams stud” – KSU fans please let me know if I am wrong in this particular instance.

So, what do we take from this? Well, we had already gotten a hint of this from free agency. Dorsey does not want this team to be a leaky ship on paper. There will be no holes and any young prospect coming in will have to compete and will be chosen purely on their talent. They will not be drafted and expected to fill some void that the team left open like with WR Jon Baldwin. I don’t know if this strategy will work, but the man has credibility coming from the Green Bay Packers.

For four years we had all been adjusting to the Patriots Way, whatever the hell that meant, but now we are starting to get a glimpse of this new identity that Dorsey and Reid will be imprinting upon our Kansas City squad.

What do you think, Addicts? Tired of imported philosophies, or do you think this one will work?

We are now two days out from the Chiefs’ 1^st-round pick being announced at Radio City Music Hall.

In a normal year, there would be very little suspense at this point for us fans. We’d already be talking about the contract details of the team’s assumed new player and what will happen later in the draft. But, as we all know, this is a strange year and a strange draft class. And, the LT Brandon Albert ball is still in the air.

So, here are the probabilities for what I think is going to happen. Feel free to chime in with your own.

1.) Will Albert be traded before the Draft officially begins?

80% Yes, 20% No.

If I’m the Chiefs, I want to make sure this deal gets done before I send my envelope to the podium. The Dolphins seem dead-set on nailing an LT in this draft, but the 2^nd-rounder they would send to the Chiefs for the trade could also potentially be used by them to trade up into the top seven to pick one of the top LT prospects. They may even prefer this option because they’d have the guy under contract for four years, he’ll be cheaper and younger, and can grow with their new quarterback.

Still, given that the talks have gotten this deep, it looks like the Chiefs simply need to act on it – with compensation perhaps a bit lower than they expect. Trading Albert essentially locks the Chiefs into taking one of the two LT prospects Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher and it’s unlikely they will be able to sign Albert to a long-term deal and trade him for much value if they both keep him this year and draft his replacement. I think they have considerable incentives to seal the deal before lights hit the stage in New York.

2.) Who will the Chiefs pick?

50% Luke Joeckel, 30% Eric Fisher, 12% OLB Dion Jordan, 5% DT Shariff Floyd, 3% DT Star Lotulelei

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Again, the Albert trade looks like all but a done deal, but getting a game-changer like Jordan certainly has to give them pause. However, if Albert is traded (again, an 80% probability IMHO), then they’re taking Fisher or Joeckel. Other possibilities if he stays are Floyd and Lotulelei, which would add bulk and versatility to the D-line.

3.) When do the Chiefs pick their first ILB?

50% 3^rd round, 20% 4^th round, 15% 5th round, 10% 2nd round, 5% no ILB taken this year

Even though it is the most conspicuous hole on the roster, I think the sweet spot for drafting ILB’s this year is the 3^rd round and it is a deep draft at that position. I don’t think GM John Dorsey is the kind of guy to spring for need if we get a 2^nd rounder by trading Albert, or trading up into the 2^nd round for a guy unless Alec Ogletree or Manti Te’o fall far. On the other hand, the team doesn’t currently have a 2^nd rounder, but it does have two picks in the third. I think they’ll go for the value guy on their list in the mid-rounds. On the other hand, they brought in two journeymen ILB’s for offseason workouts and it’s not a premiere position. They may think that they can cover themselves with what they have and take value picks in other places.

4.) How many offensive skill players will the Chiefs draft?

50% three, 20% four, 20% two, 10% one

This is a bit of a wild guess, because everything we know about Dorsey tells us that he likes to draft purely for value. Still, the offense was the Achilles’ heel of this team for the last two seasons and the side of the football that requires the greatest improvement. But: the new regime has already taken the most important step forward in improving the quarterback position, We also locked up our #1 WR in Dwayne Bowe and signed a #2 in Donnie Avery. We’re told that HC Andy Reid likes WR Dexter McCluster in a slot role and WR Jon Baldwin is still developing… we hope. That doesn’t leave a lot of spots for draft picks unless you plan on cutting them or putting them on the practice squad when the season begins.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

At running back, we have Jamaal Charles, Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray. The latter two are pickups from the previous regime and I would be surprised if Dorsey didn’t pick up a developmental RB at some point in the draft. It would also stand to reason for them to grab a young QB and TE at some point, but I would be surprised if they take more than one of each.

5.) When, if ever will the Chiefs take a QB?

50% 5^th round or later, 30% not this year, 20% 3^rd or 4^th round

The behavior of both this regime and the other NFL front offices implies that the league generally views this as not being the year to pick up a quarterback. In a sense, the Chiefs have already used their 2^nd-round pick on QB Alex Smith and they signed his backup to a generous contract. I don’t expect them to draft anyone that will provide immediate competition to either of them. That said, if a guy like Matt Barkley falls into the 4^th, I’d be surprised if the Chiefs passed on him altogether.

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

So what do you say? How do you like my odds?

Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

With the draft less than a week away, rumors and anticipation are reaching an all-time high with who the Kansas City Chiefs will take with their 1^st round pick. Mind you, this may all become much clearer if/when the Chiefs trade LT Brandon Albert to the Miami Dolphins.

Since this will be new General Manager John Dorsey and Head Coach Andy Reid’s first draft with the Chiefs, I wanted to look into what the two’s prior drafting tendencies were.  For Reid, I looked back to the start of his career in Philadelphia, starting back to 1999.  For Dorsey, I looked into the Green Bay Packers’ drafts dating back to 2000, when he was Director of College Scouting until 2011, then becoming their Director of Football Operations for the 2012 season.

Here is all first round picks for the two.

Philadelphia Eagles 1^st round under Reid:

2012 – Fletcher Cox – DT – Mississippi State – 12^th pick

2011 – Danny Watkins – OL – Baylor – 23^rd pick

2010 – Brandon Graham – DE – Michigan – 13^th pick

2009 – Jeremy Maclin – WR – Missouri – 19^th pick

2008 – No first round pick

2007 – No first round pick

2006 – Brodrick Bunkley – DT – Florida State – 14^th pick

2005 – Mike Patterson – DT – USC – 31^st pick

2004 – Shawn Andrews – G – Arkansas – 16^th pick

2003 – Jerome McDougle – DE – Miami (FL) – 15^th pick

2002 – Lito Sheppard – DB – Florida – 26^th pick

2001 – Freddie Mitchell – WR – UCLA – 25^th pick

2000 – Corey Simon – DT – Florida State – 6^th pick

1999 – Donovan McNabb – QB – Syracuse – 2^nd pick

Green Bay Packers 1^st round under Dorsey:

2012 – Nick Perry – DE – USC – 28^th pick

2011 – Derek Sherrod – OL – Mississippi State – 32^nd pick

2010 – Bryan Bulaga – T – Iowa – 23^rd pick

2009 – B.J. Raji – DT – Boston College – 9^th pick

2009 – Clay Matthews – LB – USC – 26^th pick

2008 – No first round pick

2007 – Justin Harrell – DT – Tennessee – 16^th pick

2006 – A.J. Hawk – LB – Ohio State – 5^th pick

2005 – Aaron Rodgers – QB – California – 24^th pick

2004 – Ahmad Carroll – DB – Arkansas – 25^th pick

2003 – Nick Barnett – LB – Oregon State – 29^th pick

2002 – Javon Walker – WR – Florida State – 20^th pick

2001 – Jamal Reynolds – DE – Florida State – 10^th pick

2000 – Bubba Franks – TE – Miami (FL) – 14^th pick

Reid chose a defensive lineman six times during his tenure, Dorsey four.  Both men drafted this position more than any other.  I know this will make Chiefs fans cringe, since it seems every draft we take a D-Lineman.  Each only took two Quarterbacks in the first round.  But with good reasons: Reid secured his franchise QB early, grabbing Donovan McNabb in 1999.  Dorsey had Brett Favre in Green Bay and wisely helped to choose Aaron Rodgers during his draft day slide in 2005.  So, both positions were handled correctly.  (It would be great if that was ever said about the Chiefs quarterback position.)  Dorsey then helped to grab three linebackers during his tenure, all key contributors to the Packers defense.  Both also drafted OL two times each.

I think it’s easy to see that both men value both sides of the line of scrimmage, totaling 14 picks between the both over their tenures with their respective teams.  Buzz with the Chiefs dating back to forever has linked them with Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M or Eric Fisher of Central Michigan.  Seeing the history, some names that have been associated with the Chiefs also were DT Sharif Floyd of Florida, OLB Dion Jordan of Oregon, DE Ezekiel Ansah of BYU, and DT Star Lotulelei of Utah.  All of these make sense due to the Dorsey and Reid’s prior tendencies.  Mind you, I am not predicting a pick; I’m just showing the tendencies of the new regime.  I will leave the pick up to you now, Addicts!

It has been several years since so much was at stake for the Kansas City Chiefs in a single offseason.

For now, we are the worst team in the league.

We have no credible starting quarterback.

Three of our best players are not under contract.

And we have no idea what our front office is thinking right now.

Like most rabid Chiefs fans, I think that both new Head Coach Andy Read and General Manager John Dorsey were good hires and I want to believe they will make the best possible decisions in this pivotal offseason.

However, the Pioli regime left my heart and soul battered and, like a chronically abused spouse, I’m a basket case struggling to trust. Add to this that we are at the height of the NFL misinformation season, where GM’s go out of their way to confuse and manipulate the agents and other teams to lower contract offers and juke out opponents. Unfortunately for us shell-shocked fans, the tactics work on us too.

We don’t know what to think.

By the end of the day, if reports are to be believed, it may be announced that the Chiefs have secured a deal to trade for San Francisco QB Alex Smith. Then again, we may end up trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles once the league years starts on March 12, and apparently talks are already running for that.

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Meanwhile, we have been told both that the team is working to re-sign LT Brandon Albert and that is also is high on LT draft prospect Luke Joeckel. Dorsey has come out poo-pooing the QB class, while it appears to be a consensus that Geno Smith solidified his status as a top 10 pick with his performance at the Combine.

We have yet to use the franchise tag, which will allow us to lock up Albert, WR Dwayne Bowe or P Dustin Colquitt.

I wish I had some insight into what is going to happen with this team, but the truth is that no one outside of a very small club within the Chiefs’ front office has any idea.

Here’s what I think I think:

I will be disappointed if Alex Smith becomes our “answer” at quarterback. He’s been productive in his last two seasons under Jim Harbaugh, but was a disaster for the franchise for years before that. While he was ranked 7^th in overall QBR for his 10 games in 2012, the three years before that he was rated thusly, 2011: 45.8, 2010: 40.1, 2009: 40.2. By comparison, Blaine Gabbert’s QBR in 2012 was 40.9. Christian Ponder’s was 53.8.

Still, I don’t want to be misunderstood. I’m not necessarily against acquiring Alex Smith if the compensation is reasonable. I am whole-heartedly against trading for him and thinking we’re set at the position. The fact is that we need three quarterbacks. Cassel could possibly restructure for a less egregious cap number this year, but I feel like a clean break would be best for both player and team. Brady Quinn is a free agent and good riddance. Ricky Stanzi and Alex Tanney haven’t shown us anything and probably only have the upside to become backups even if they develop.

In a perfect world, we could acquire either Smith or Foles and still draft Geno. Alex can hold down the fort for a season or two while Geno works on the “inconsistencies” all the scouts have been talking about and Foles could also compete with Geno long-term as an option with upside.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

However, if what we end up with is San Fran’s average-to-above-average castaway and a replacement for Brandon Albert who’s unproven in the NFL for the 1^st overall pick and, say, a 3^rd of 4^th this year, it will be hard to deem this offseason a success.

Alex Smith is just 28 and maybe his best football is ahead of him. Then again, maybe he is nothing more than a system quarterback who benefited from great coaching and a strong team around him that plays both solid defense and hosts a running game that averaged 155.7 yards per game (4^th in the league in 2012).

Maybe his best football is behind him. Cassel’s 2008 QBR rating with the New England Patriots was 63.1 – 11^th in the league and comparable to Smith’s 70.1 rating this year.

On either side of Smith in the QBR rankings this year are rookies RGIII (71.4) and Russell Wilson (69.6).

It was pretty clear that RGIII was going to be a superstar this year, but that didn’t stop the Redskins from hedging their bets and picking up Kirk Cousins as well to develop along side him.

As we all know, Wilson was believed to have limitations in his game and the Seahawks got him for a song in the 3^rd round. Even then he was considered to be a reach. They also gave a big contract to Matt Flynn and had Tavaris Jackson on their roster when the training camp began last year and I don’t think they are kicking themselves.

Like I said, I am only going to be upset with Alex Smith if the Chiefs bring him in on a chariot as the sole answer to our QB woes. We need multiple options for the future. How we go about getting them will define this team for years. There are several cards to play and we can’t see Dorsey’s hand.

So, as much as it’s killing us, all we can do is wait.

The last week has certainly thrown our QB draft predictions through a loop.

The first shoe to drop was Michael Vick, who signed a new three-year contract “that’s really a one-year deal” according to USA Today worth up to $10 million last Monday. He was already under contract but his restructured deal all but ended speculation that he might be a cap casualty and hit the open market. This leaves just Alex Smith and Matt Flynn as starting-caliber QB’s who could be cut or traded by their current teams.

Then, over the weekend, Dorsey heavily criticized this year’s incoming quarterback draft class, citing “so many inconsistencies” and “too many technical flaws, scheme flaws” among this year’s crop.

Like Paddy, I struggle to understand the purpose of these statements except that maybe he’s hoping to find a trade partner who is enamored with either DT Star Lotulelei or LT Luke Joeckel (the consensus top prospects at the moment) and is willing to hopscotch up to the Chiefs’ spot to guarantee not missing out on one of them. Then again, it’s February and GM’s are usually the last person you can trust leading up to the draft. On the other hand, when you hold the first pick, you don’t really need to juke out anyone.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A few days before his statements came reports that the Chiefs were interested in trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles. It remains unclear if these reports or credible or just idle speculation that Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid would be interested in taking the quarterback he drafted last year and started in the final seven games of the season. One way or the other, with the Chiefs QB options narrowing, it is certainly worth considering whether the team should make a play for Foles and what he would be worth.

In my opinion, Foles is worth at least the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick. Here’s why:

His overall stats for his rookie season were unimpressive: 1-7 record, 60.8% completion percentage for 6.41 yards per completion, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. But, it’s important to see how he progressed. In his last four games last year he was 5 TD’s, 2 INTs for 1,152 yards (a 289.25 per-game average).

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Consider also that he was never supposed to see the field in 2012. He was widely regarded as a guy who would need a lot of development to be ready to play in the NFL.

Furthermore, he was able to put in respectable performances for the Eagles during the home stretch of a season that was a slow motion implosion. Our very own Andy Reid was a lame duck in Week 3. The defense was a sieve, allowing a 27.8 per game (3^rd-worst in the league). Two coaches were fired mid-season. The offensive line was a disaster, allowing a league-high 118 QB hits, and 48 sacks. Only four teams allowed more.

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In some ways, none of this was new to him. He played college ball at Arizona, a middling team in the PAC-12 that played poor defense and only got to one bowl game during his stint there. Their head coach was fired after his junior season.

Nonetheless, Foles was a highly ranked prospect in the 2012 Draft because he possesses the prototypical qualities of a successful quarterback – 6’5” with a big arm and knack for dropping bombs in his receivers’ breadbaskets. In his final season for the Wildcats, he gained 4,334 yards with 28 TD’s and 14 INT’s. He was ranked CBS Sports’ 48^th overall prospect and was expected to go in the mid-to-late 2^nd round. (For a total breakdown of his college work, check out Ladner’s post on the subject from last year).

In fact, the only reason he fell so far was likely because last year’s draft class was so much richer than this year’s and there had already been a feeding frenzy on signal callers. Six quarterbacks were taken ahead of Foles — Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson. All but one of those guys started this year and proved that they could be productive players. After Foles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Lindley were selected and also ended up playing for their respective teams. So, while the Eagles may have gotten him for just a 3^rd, that was a steal. Luckily for us, Pioli grabbed a backup lineman instead.

So what is he worth?

For the record, I should reiterate that I continue to believe that the Chiefs’ best course of action is to franchise LT Brandon Albert, re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe and grab the top quarterback prospect (Geno Smith) with our first overall pick. We can pick up some serviceable veterans and depth players to plug in the rest of our holes with free agency and the lower-rungs of the draft.

But, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a case for grabbing Nick Foles.

With his youth, upside and NFL experience, I think Foles would easily be one of the top three quarterback prospects if he was magically inserted into the 2013 draft. His tape reminds me a lot of Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon and it’s possible that both of those guys will go in the first round. I can’t fathom either of them falling out of the 2^nd.

So, Nick Foles’ former draft position doesn’t matter much when talking about draft compensation this year. In fact, given that he showed the ability to be productive at this level automatically means that he is worth more than the 88^th overall pick, where he was chosen. Therefore, the Eagles are right to expect more in return.

If we’re talking about equitable compensation I think the conversation starts at the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick, which, as Ladner pointed out, is really a late 2^nd-round pick because the Saints and Browns have no 2^nd-rounders this year. We will still probably get a late-3^rd compensatory pick, so the sacrifice isn’t devastating. But, I don’t think the Chiefs should go as high as our #34 selection this year, simply because we need to get value with that pick this year (especially if we are going to “reach” at #1). But, I think it makes perfect sense to offer conditional 2014 picks and maybe even 2015 picks based on Foles’ performance.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

A possible deal could look like this – a 3^rd or 4^th this year and a 6^th next year that could increase to a 4^th, 3^rd, or even 2^nd-round pick in 2014 if he starts for us and takes us to the playoffs. Generally, a pick next year is considered the equivalent of a pick in the current year minus one round. In other words, a 3^rd-rounder next year is worth a 4^th-rounder this year in terms of draft capital.

With this kind of a deal, worst case scenario is that we give up one of our top-100 picks this year and not much else for a starting-quality backup, who is better than any QB we currently have on the roster, who is 24 and who has a ton of upside. He totally outplayed Brandon Weeden last year, who was taken in the 1^st round and is five years older.

If Foles starts for us and we do well with him in 2013, we won’t care that we lost our (late) 2^nd or 3^rd-round pick next year to get him.

Furthermore, Philadelphia may not be so determined to fetch such a high price. While they have said that they would need to be “blown away” by an offer, they have a new regime and are looking for a different type of quarterback. By re-signing Michael Vick and picking up QB Dennis Dixon, who Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly coached in Oregon, they are showing they want a guy who is mobile and can keep up with Kelly’s offense. Slow feet is one of Foles’ greatest weaknesses. He is the black sheep on the roster. So, while they see value in him, that doesn’t mean they’re in love.

While I know it would be groan-inducing for most Chiefs fans, trading for Foles may also be the team’s best way to get one of the most objectively talented prospects in the 2013 Draft plus a possible quarterback of the future. I’ve been on the record as saying that it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to bypass Geno for Lotulelei or Joeckel, but adding Foles to our shopping bag as a 3^rd round pick changes things a bit.

If Dorsey truly is averse to grabbing the top QB in 2013, I think the best consolation prize we are going to find is Nick Foles.

Last week, I laid out why I think it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to select DT Star Lotulelei with their first pick. This week, it’s Joeckel’s turn.

There’s probably no player more frequently mocked to the Chiefs than LT Luke Joeckel, but there are a lot of problems with that pick.

Still, let’s start with the good:

He’s a blue chip player at a blue chip position and if the Chiefs don’t re-sign Brandon Albert, it’s a need position for the Chiefs as well.

By almost all accounts he is one of the top three prospects in this draft. Left tackles with the natural ability and prototypical size that he has do not grow on trees. In a year of iffy quarterback prospects, tackles also tend to be safer picks and he’ll be cheaper than retaining Albert’s services most likely.

He has no injury concerns and held his own against some of college football’s best pass rushers in the SEC. All around, he is a low-risk pick and could be the best LT in all of football with some development.

So why not take him?

First off, while there is an overall lower bust rate for tackles in the top of the draft, they’re not a sure bet either. Of the eight tackles taken in the top ten since 2008, all but two are currently rated by Scouts Inc. as just “good starters,” which they describe as a “Solid starter who is close to being an outstanding player … Has few weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchup but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the league.”

That’s not exactly an inspiring result for a 1^st overall pick. If you pick in the top five, you should be landing a guy that is a star in the league for years, not a guy who is merely better than average.

Brandon Albert, on the other hand, is rated as an “outstanding player” by Scouts Inc., which they describe as, “Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL … A feature player who has an impact on the outcome of the game … Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week-in and week-out.”

In other words, if the past five years of drafts are any indication, the Chiefs have essentially a one in four chance of drafting a tackle as good as Brandon Albert. In fact, Brandon Albert is probably one of the most under-rated players on the Chiefs roster. He was ranked the 7^th best left tackle in pass protection by Pro Football Focus in 2012 giving up just one sack throughout the season, and Jamaal Charles ran his best when going wide left behind Albert last year. At the final tally, he averaged 8.1 yards for 459 total, gaining roughly a third of his total yards and three of his five touchdowns that way – including that miracle sprint that won us the Saints game.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

But looking at Joeckel himself as a prospect, he is also far from perfect. Going back to the Scouts Inc. grades, the only thing he is rated as “exceptional” in is “awareness.” Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that he’s a smart football player, but I also get a bit antsy about prospects other than quarterbacks whose primary accolade is that they have veteran awareness, because that is ideally the area where they will improve the most once they get to the NFL. Most players do not fundamentally change their bodies and physical tools once they get to the pros, because there’s only so much more you can do when you’re built like these guys are.

In their grades on both his pass protection and run blocking, Scouts Inc. notes he lacks “power in punch” and “initial pop,” noting he doesn’t always drive defenders off the line, but is usually able to make up for his lack of strength with good reactions. While I imagine he can bulk up some, if he’s getting outmuscled in college, he’s going to get straight up beaten in the NFL. Plus, if his awareness is already topped out, he may have peaked already.

The last team to pick a left tackle 1^st overall was the Miami Dolphins in 2008. They had a similar plan to the one that is very popular in the comment section – they got their franchise LT in Jake Long with their first overall pick and then snagged a falling QB prospect in the 2^nd round – Chad Henne. In fact, there are lot of similarities between the 2012 Chiefs and the Dolphins going into the 2008 Draft. They too had a solid defense and a team with good veteran pieces in place. So how did it go?

What occurred was the greatest single-season turnaround in NFL history as they improved from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008, winning the Tom Brady-less AFC East and going to the playoffs. But, it didn’t last.

Still running with free-agent-signing Chad Pennington at quarterback, the Dolphins turned stale as their game plan of short, accurate passing with Pennington stopped working. Teams also started figuring out the wildcat formation and when Pennington got injured, the team was forced to confront the fact that Henne was something less than a starting quality QB. He finished the season with 12 TD’s, 14 INT’s and a QBR of 51.3.

Three picks after they grabbed Jake Long, the Falcons drafted QB Matt Ryan. Since the 2008 draft, the Falcons’ regular season record is 56-24. The Dolphins have gone 38-42 and haven’t been back to the playoffs since 2008. Meanwhile, Jake Long has ended up being a solid player but has had so many injury problems that the team plans to let him walk on the free market this offseason.

At this stage of the process, the chattering consensus is that it would be a reach for the Chiefs to take any quarterback at #1, however there’s also no guarantee that they will be able to take one of the top two quarterback prospects at all if they wait to try and jump into the back of the 1^st round or take whatever is left in round two. Free agent options are uninspiring to say the least.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a left tackle that they could re-sign who is better than 75% of the tackles taken in the top 10 of the 1^st round in the last five years.

The Chiefs need to decide if they want to be the Dolphins or the Falcons, whether they want to take a chance to fundamentally change this team, or whether they want to play the best card we have this offseason to fill a hole that we’d be making ourselves.

For me the choice is simple, don’t draft Joeckel if you want to take a big step forward.

Super Bowl XVII is in the books and the 2013 offseason has officially begun.

For the Chiefs, of course, the draft talk has been going since mid-season and in case there is was any doubt, I am in the camp of fans clamoring for the Chiefs to take a quarterback with their first pick.

I’ve come to this decision not because I’m smitten with any particular prospect (although I think Geno Smith currently leads the class), but because I think all other options are uninspiring and won’t help this team take the next step. In short, I think Geno wins by process of elimination. To make that point, I’ll be going through all the other players frequently mocked to the Chiefs and that the team will be able to grab with the 1^st overall pick.

First up, DT Star Lotulelei.

Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

The Good:

Star Lotulelei is a big, big man who is extremely powerful and stunningly fast. He once caused a fumbled snap and recovered it against USC because he hit the center so quickly and powerfully that the guy was on his rear before he ever got the ball to the QB. That’s really hard to do in the split second that the ball goes from the ground to the quarterback’s hands.

Although he made his bones blowing up blocks in the middle and causing havoc for offensive lines, he also was able to chase down runners from behind on plays where he was left unblocked on counters in one direction of the other. Overall, the player he most reminds me of is B.J. Raji – both an unstoppable force and an immovable object. I’m really not sure what would happen if two Star Lotulelei’s collided, but it would probably tear a hole in time and space.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Bad:

We’ve drafted this guy before.

Several times in fact.

This isn’t necessarily his fault, but I don’t need to remind Chiefs fans that this team has an awful history of selecting defensive linemen with their first picks in the draft. Still, in case anyone has forgotten, this is how it has gone lately with run-stuffing DT’s that KC grabbed with their first selection that year:

2001, 75^th overall pick Eric Downing – Started just 13 games for the team in three years before being cut and picked up by the Chargers, who in turn cut him after one season. He accumulated just two sacks and 44 tackles in those four years.

2002, 6^th overall pick Ryan Sims – Started 36 games for the team in five seasons on the roster, racking up just five sacks and 64 tackles before being let go.

2004, 36^th overall pick Junior Siavii – Cut after two years without ever starting a game. Had 13 tackles and one sack for the Chiefs.

2006, 20^th overall pick Tamba Hali – Obviously has become a franchise pass rusher for the team and one of the most important pieces of our defense … but only after we moved him off the line to linebacker.

2008, 5^th overall pick Glenn Dorsey – Has never been worth his contract although he has turned into a respectable player in the 3-4, but he’s been injury prone and his best season was in that magical (possibly fluky) 2010 season, in which he had 51 tackles and two sacks. My guess is that he won’t be with the team next year.

2009, 3^rd overall pick Tyson Jackson – Last November, Pro Football Focus wrote of Jackson: “However you want to spin it, Jackson was a bad draft pick. Not because he’s a bad player, but because you don’t spend a third overall pick on a two down run stuffing end [more on that later]. That’s what the Chiefs did and they’re having to live with the consequences of his astronomical salary. His work in the run game has been decent this year (though nowhere near as good as 2011), but he’s yet to pick up any pressure. In fact, throughout his career he has 19 quarterback disruptions. Through 8 weeks of the NFL season, 43 defenders have more this season alone.”

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

2012, 11^th overall pick Dontari Poe – He may yet turn into something, but a pass rusher he is not. At the end of the year, PFF noted: “In his rookie season, Dontari Poe had the lowest Pass Rushing Productivity of all defensive/nose tackle, at 2.3. In his 391 pass rushes, he had zero sacks, three hits and nine hurries. The two lowest 3-4 defensive ends included Tyson Jackson at 2.2, and Ropati Pitoitua at 2.3.”

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, Kansas City defensive linemen have been useless against the pass, and that won’t change if we pick up Lotulelei.

Although he is Scouts Inc.’s top overall rated player and is the top rated defensive tackle (4^th overall) on Mel Kiper’s Big Board, he still grades out poorly as anything other than a run-stuffer. He had just average production for his position with 41 tackles and five sacks in 2012. As with Poe, scouts rightly point out that given the extreme difference in level of play between college and the NFL, prospects should stand out big time at the college level. They should look like the best player on the field – especially if they are considered a top-10 pick. I’m not sure that’s the case with Lotulelei.

Scouts Inc. graded him as “below average” on pass rush skills, saying: “Needs development and doesn’t have a ton of upside in this area. Flashes an effective bull rush to collapse the pocket when staying low. However, too often comes off the ball too high initially. Does not have a wide array of pass rushing moves right now. Also needs development with hands in combat to counter. Shows good instincts to get his hands up in throwing lanes when seeing quarterbacks start their throwing motion.”

The only thing they graded him as “exceptional” in was his durability and run defense, saying he’d be a good fit in a Romeo Crennel-style two-gap 3-4 – an accolade that sends a chill down my spine.

If he hasn’t been effective at rushing the passer in college, he won’t be in NFL. The fact that scouts don’t believe he has upside in that area should worry any coach. Honestly, given how much passing and defending the pass has become the marquis struggle in the league, I’m amazed at how highly Lotulelei is projected to be selected.

In the end, I agree with  what PFF said about Jackson. You just don’t pick run-stuffers this high in the draft. While a pass can be disrupted by a single player, run-defense is squad-level effort and one player is not going to make the same impact against the run as a pass-rushing specialist will at getting after the quarterback. Even if one D-lineman is especially fierce against runners, teams will just run around him. It’s always good when your defense can dictate what the other team is able to do, but making them run left instead of right isn’t as big of a contribution as them having to keep extra backs in for pass pro or ignore a side of the field because their receivers are stuck on Revis Island.

While it would be a painfully Chiefs-esque move, the team should definitely not spend their 1^st pick this year on Star Lotulelei. He might help us, but he won’t fundamentally change this team, which is in need of serious work.

It’s that time of year again, when we all scour every mock draft we can find and endlessly ponder and argue about what the Chiefs should do once April 25^th rolls around.

Everyone has an opinion, most formed forged by a mix of personal preferences, tape study, and a survey of mocks and expert commentary. The problem is that draft science is far from a real science and Mel Kiper Jr. is not god. In fact, the man is our creation – he exists as a result of our obsession and boredom this time of year, and don’t get me wrong, I listen to his podcast, read his articles and scan through all of his mocks. Still, that is far from meaning that the Chiefs should take his advice on Draft day.

The big theme of this round of draft chatter is about how none of the QB’s are worthy of the first overall pick so therefore the Chiefs should steer clear of them with their first selection, choosing instead one of the standout pass-rushers or linemen.

Perhaps it’s my background as a journalist, but I hate groupthink and that includes the conventional wisdom that builds up around this time every year and then gets shattered by the guys actually making the decisions. Let’s be clear, regardless of whatever the self-styled draft scientists say, the player that is worth the Chiefs 1^st pick is the player most likely to make the team better, Kiper’s big board be damned.

To me, it is obvious that this player is whoever the Chiefs deem to be the best quarterback prospect available. I believe that player to be Geno Smith, but what John Dorsey thinks is far more important than my amateur evaluation. In the coming weeks I will go through and detail why the Chiefs shouldn’t pick each individual other prospect that the so-called experts have mocked to them, but for now, I just want to point out that Dorsey has a much better track record than the “experts” when it comes to drafting quality players.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s compare the Packers’ 1^st-round picks since 2005 with what the scientists wanted them to choose:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Pick #: 28

Result: Jury Still Out. Perry started five games this season and racked up a couple of sacks, but couldn’t stay healthy and finished the year on injured reserve with a wrist injury.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Pick #: 32

Result: Jury Still Out. I know it seems like a cop-out, but Sherrod has also seen limited time due to injury. He broke both the tibia and fibula in his leg during the team’s stunning loss to the Chiefs in 2011 and hasn’t been back on the field since. Before then, he started five games giving up no sacks but generating concern in Green Bay about his grasp of the fundamentals.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2010: T Bryan Bulaga

Pick #: 23

Result: High-end starter. Drafted late in the round, Bulaga has played right tacklke for three years “near a Pro Bowl level” and will get a shot at playing left tackle in 2013, according to the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2009: B.J. Raji

Pick #: 9

Result: Franchise player. Raji is a major force at his position and a difference-maker in games.

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

2009: LB Clay Mathews

Pick #: 26

Result: Franchise player. Ditto for Matthews. 42.5 sacks since being drafted. ‘Nuff said.

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2007: DT Justin Harrell

Pick #: 16

Result: Bust due to injury. There is an odd theme to injury being the bane of the Packers’ most promising young players, but it was again the case here. He was cut in 2011 after four disappointing seasons, which the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel summed up thusly: “Harrell never quite had a chance to cash in on his potential as injuries robbed him each season.” Still, he was drafted with a torn bicep suffered in college and was a risky pick on the behalf of the Packers’ front office.

2006: OLB A.J. Hawk

Pick #: 5

Result: High-end starter. ESPN insider describes him as: “an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is an instinctive player who understands angles and how to the leverage the football. He has improved attacking the line of scrimmage being more physical on contact. He is solid as a zone coverage defender but may get exposed in combination man schemes.”

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

2005: QB Aaron Rodgers

Pick #: 24

Result: Living legend. A-Rodg probably has to get another Super Bowl victory to punch his ticket to Canton, but he is one of the best three quarterbacks playing this game right now, possibly the very best.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

All and all, not a bad haul for eight first-round picks – one bust, two high-end starters, two franchise players, and one superstar that will define this generation for the team. I don’t need to remind you of what the Chiefs got themselves through these years, but suffice to say it is significantly less stellar.

How did the experts do? Well, this is what Kiper, king of the draftniks, wanted Green Bay to do all of these years:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Ok, this one was sort of obvious. Green Bay needed a pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews and Perry was projected to be the only one available at this spot.

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Ditto. Also shows that these iffy picks were eminently popular.

2010:  G Mike Iupati

Real pick #: 17 by San Francisco

Result: High-end starter. Scouts Inc. has him ranked as the 49ers’ 6^th best player.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2009: CB Malcom Jenkins

Real pick #: 14 by New Orleans

Result: Good starter. The Saints moved him to free safety where he shows good overall skills on that dreadful defense but hasn’t been a difference maker. He has four interceptions in four seasons.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2008: CB Antoine Cason

Real pick #: 27 by San Diego

Result: High-end starter. He gives up big plays, but is overall still a solid d-back. His Madden 13 overall rating was 86, which is pretty dern good.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2007: RB Marshawn Lynch

Real pick #: 12 by Buffalo

Result: High-end starter. Lynch is a borderline franchise player and definitely would have been a good pick for Green Bay if Buffalo hadn’t snatched him four picks earlier. It’s also important to note, however, that Lynch was a trouble-maker who washed out for his first team, which very well could have been the Packers instead of the Bills.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2006: A.J. Hawk

Right again! Rival expert Todd McShay had the Packers taking TE Vernon Davis. Now that would be scary.

2005: S/OLB (?) Thomas Davis

Real pick #: 14 by Carolina

Result: Mediocre player. Davis’ biggest problems lately have been health. He only played nine games in three seasons from 2009 to 2011 and didn’t stand out in 15 starts in 2012, picking up 68 tackles, no sacks and one interception for the Panthers.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

So matched up against the real Green Bay front office, Kiper would have gotten for them four high-end starters plus one good and one mediocre player vs. one superstar, two franchise players, two high-end starters and a bust. That, of course is what conventional wisdom brings – low-risk moves that pay off but make no home runs.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Was 24 the right spot for Aaron Rodgers to be drafted? Well, we know now that it definitely was not. Instead, Alex Smith was taken 1^st overall that year followed by RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cedric Benson, RB Cadillac Williams and CB Pacman Jones. Why? Well, it was a strong running back draft class, just like this is a strong draft for defensive front-seven players.

This is why the “best player available” philosophy is always so misunderstood. Best player available doesn’t mean “next player on Kiper’s Big Board” or “the consensus pick by the draft scientists.” It means finding a player with something special that you can envision helping your team, possibly leading it to the promised land. John Dorsey is much better at that part of the game than any of the talking heads, and has proven it.

Forget about what the crowd says would be “good value” for Chiefs #1 pick. Good value is going to be getting the best quarterback for the future we can. Trading Albert for a young tackle prospect is not good value. Picking up another overhyped D-lineman or undersized pass-rusher isn’t either.

In short, don’t listen to the chatter. Dorsey’s got this.

Jan 22, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey discusses with his scouts and coaches following the Senior Bowl South Squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Last Friday, a shot rang out through Chiefs nation – one that meant hope, credibility and a lot of change.

By firing GM Scott Pioli and bringing in head coach Andy Reid, Clark Hunt has set the franchise on an entirely new path.

Firstly, he has done away with the team’s traditional hierarchical structure that seats a powerful general manager above the coaching staff. Make no mistake, going forward, for better or worse, Reid is going to be calling the shots during the offseason, the draft, et cetera.

Four years ago, the Chiefs hired a highly reputed front office wiz from the New England Patriots. Although everyone knows that Bill Belichick is the mastermind behind New England’s success, this guy was a vital cog in his machine and it was believed that the numbers guy could be brought in to reproduce it. That failed, and Hunt learned his lesson. This time around, by hiring Andy Reid, he didn’t get Pioli, he got Belichick.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Having secured a lucrative contract that gives him wide-sweeping authority, make no mistake, Reid is going to make a lot of changes. He comes with a distinct philosophy, working style and mold for a successful team.

Reid is definitely going to make his imprint on this team during this offseason, which means several players are going to get their walking papers while others are going to see their role increase. We still don’t know exactly who Reid will take on with his staff or whether or not he will be keeping the Chiefs’ 3-4 defense, but judging by the way he built the Eagles, I think we can say which players should be happy and which should be nervous.

Offense

Extremely Happy:

WR’s Steve Breaston, Dexter McCluster and Devon Wylie

Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Reid loves small receivers that are great route-runners. McCluster has come on has an effective slot guy and I have a feeling that Reid will find something to do with Breaston who was criminally underused this season. Meanwhile, Wylie showed up late as another developing tool in the Chiefs passing game.

Happy:

RB Jamaal Charles, LT Brandon Albert

It’s been widely said that Reid doesn’t like to run the ball, but that’s not really true. The Eagles were 19^th in rushing attempts per game this year, 12^th last year and 15^th in 2010. In other words, they’re pretty much in the middle of the pack. Charles will still be getting fewer touches on runs out of the backfield (largely because the Chiefs have been one of the most run-happy teams in the league), but he will make up for that with more screens and quick passes thrown his way per game. Charles is a good route runner and could easily become a faster version of Brian Westbrook.

Reid also highly values the offensive line and doesn’t mind spending big to keep it shored up. This is good news for Albert, whose contract is up.

Extremely Worried:

RB Peyton Hillis and WR’s Jonathan Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Hillis is gone. His fantastic game against the Colts notwithstanding, Hillis was a disappointment, only rushing for 309 yards this season for a 3.6-yard average. Like Hillis, Baldwin and Bowe also don’t really fit Reid’s scheme. Bowe is a great outside, move-the-chains threat, but Reid doesn’t typically utilize such receivers. He prefers getting the ball into the hands of smaller, more dynamic players in the middle that have the chance to make big plays. Baldwin has done next to nothing in the league and doesn’t fit this new mold. Bowe will probably be allowed to walk this offseason in favor of a free agent like Mike Wallace. Baldwin will probably get his last chance to prove his worth in the 2013 preseason.

Defense

Extremely Happy:

S Eric Berry

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Reid made great use of safety Brian Dawkins early in his time in Philadelphia as a jack-of-all-trades blitzer, run stuffer and cover guy. Berry has the physical tools to do the same, and I can’t wait to see the creative ways Reid decides to use him.

Happy:

OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston

Although nothing is certain at this point, it is likely that Reid will want to move back to a 4-3 defense and use both Hali and Houston as edge rushers on the line. Hali is originally a defensive end and will likely be happy to return. Although Houston has done admirably in picking up coverage skills, I personally think it is a waste to make him drop back on passing downs when he truly excels at getting after the quarterback. In a Reid defense, he likely to be able focus on doing just that.

Worried:

The rest of the front seven

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Especially if the team abandons the 3-4, DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are likely toast. Both are overpaid and underwhelming and I don’t see Reid wanting to keep reinvesting in those projects. Poe will likely stay a bit longer because he is still developing and would likely be effective in a 4-3 as well.

Unfortunately for the guys behind them, Reid has never heavily prized the linebacker position. In his years in Philly, he always invested high picks and free agent signings in defensive linemen and DBs while allowing the linebacking corps to be filled by a revolving door of journeymen.

Although we know Derrick Johnson can excel in the role of a 4-3 middle linebacker, it is still unclear whether Reid will want to pay him big money to continue to do so when his contract is up.

This list will change as we find out more about what Reid plans to do with this team, and I’ll try to keep you all updated as we all find out more.

I was never on the bandwagon for firing Todd Haley last year.

Of course, this all sounds like “I told ya so” talk now, but I enjoyed going back and reading my articles defending Haley and expressing skepticism about Crennel for an entirely different reason: It was a simpler time.

Looking at the old AA pieces I wrote, I realized it was like re-reading diary entries from childhood in the days of innocence before some traumatic event. Back then, we had excuses for our poor play and it seemed like good football was on the horizon. Our coach and quarterback had been disappointing but were still winning some games. The team had an architect that we could still give the benefit of the doubt.

Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE

Now that innocence is gone and we recognize our parents are not paragons of virtue and strength but flawed mortals. The world is full of people who lie and mean people don’t always get punished. This team is off the rails. The last four years have been basically wasted. We have no coach, no QB, no GM and an owner who seems to be conducting a social experiment to determine how long before fans burn Arrowhead to the ground in rage at his inaction.

Back then, we could still say that we had a QB on the roster good enough to get us through games, that we were full of young talent and we were growing a dynasty. Just add water. Today, nothing looks good and people in Chiefs country are dying of anguish and frustration.

It really cannot be overstated. At 1-9, the Chiefs have matched their worst opening to a season in the history of the franchise. I will be honestly stunned if we win another game this year. By every major metric other than rushing production the Chiefs are a disgrace. At this point, both Haley and even Herm Edwards look attractive.

But, it’s really not just because of how bad we are right now. I’ve always thought Haley got a raw deal.

In 2009, Haley was one of 11 head coaches hired. Like Todd, most were successful coordinators somewhere else. Of those 11, only two still have their jobs — Jim Schwartz in Detroit and Rex Ryan in New York, and they’re both 4-6 right now, by the way. By the time Haley was fired only four of those other coaches from the class of 2009 had a better win-loss record – Ryan, Jim Caldwell, Mike Singletary and Jim Mora Jr..

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

So, while that was an admittedly uninspiring crop, Haley was among the most successful coaches hired that year. Also, statistically speaking, it was nearly certain that the Chiefs would have a bad season.

Thirty NFL teams between 2002 and 2009 increased their season-to-season records by five or more games like the Chiefs did between 2009 and 2010. Of them, 24 (80 percent) had worse seasons following their surge – with 13 (43 percent) of them losing at least four more games after their surprising season. There are lots of reasons for this of course, the main one: changes in the strength of schedule. Also, the NFL is just a hard place to maintain success. Let down years are inevitable.

But even Haley somehow won five of 13 games without the ACL crew. He even got a win with Tyler Palko at quarterback while the team this year has only even had a lead in two games so far.

It’s also not as if Haley had a whole lot to work with. In addition to the fact that Pioli was diametrically opposed to putting a quarterback on the field not named Matt Cassel, KC’s defenses were nearly always inconsistent, showing up big in some games and melting away in others. He also had to deal with a sociopathic boss who collects candy wrappers, wiretaps his employees and in the end essentially fired him because he didn’t shave or wear a new hat. (Seriously, I’m quite certain that when Pioli gets off work he goes to sit and stare quizzically at an array of severed heads in jars).

But mostly, I just realized that I honestly liked our team that year. I’m finding it very hard to say the same in 2012. In 2011, we were a team ravaged by injuries playing above our level of talent and clawing for every win. Now, we’re just a bundle of undisciplined players making dumb mistakes and barely giving opponents any resistance as they march up and down the field.

Haley was known for being overly brash on the sidelines, which is something I would love to see these days. Someone needs to yell at these guys. When I heard the criticism about him being verbally aggressive, I always thought it was way overblown. These players are grown men and this is an emotional game – or at least it is unless your name is Romeo. If so, then game day is a time when the bad people make you stand outside for three hours and all you have to read is a laminated sheet of paper while you stare blankly at the field while repeating soup recipes in your head. Or at least that’s what I think he’s doing. Your guess is as good as mine. All I can tell you is that it is not inspiring.

So here we are. Refreshing football news websites over and over hoping to see that someone has been fired. This is what it has come to. We have come of age and discovered that the adults running things are even more screwed up than us little people down below and there’s nothing to do about it.

But, family is family. So, next Sunday and the Sunday after that, I will tune in to watch the Chiefs play. I will cringe and guffaw, and write another piece, although I’m running out of things to say.

Maybe next week this column will be about soup.

While pondering these and other caveman conundrums, I’ve come to realize that it hasn’t been adequate to ask, how did the Chiefs get to where they’re at, without also asking how other teams have moved up the evolutionary ladder and passed them by.

At the end of 2011, the 7-9 Chiefs were better, at least as far as their record goes, than the Colts, Redskins, Vikings, Browns, Bucs, Rams, Jags, Dolphins, Panthers and Bills. Now, at the midway point of the 2012 season, and near the end of the Mayan calendar I might add, only the Jacksonville Jaguars remain. Actually, the Jags have won as many games as the Chiefs have (1) so, the real answer to that question is — no team is “worse” than the Chiefs in the NFL. Not as far as records go.

On Tuesday, ProFootballTalk (PFT) released their most recent NFL Power Rankings and the Chiefs finished dead (you know, dead, as in extinct) last. Both CBS Sports and ESPN concur, the Chiefs are the 32nd best team in the league and if somehow you didn’t know, it’s only a 32 team league.

Darwinism and “The Origin of the Species” has supplied us with terms that have become a part of our everyday lexicon… terms like evolution and adaptation.

The 2012 KC Chiefs have supplied us with the distinction.

Like every team, the Chiefs have evolved, but, in the Chiefs case, they’ve done it in a negative way. That’s referred to as devolution: to gradually roll downward.  

What is more appropriate to point to is that the Chiefs  have not adapted.

The question then, is not: why are the Chiefs a bad team? The question is why have the Chiefs been devolving instead of adapting.

Adaptation vs. Change.

When Clark Hunt decided to change general managers four years ago, was he really thinking about a change or adapting? Apparently he just believed it was time for a change. Change, in and of itself, is not always for the better. In the wild, animals adapt to survive. They don’t just change. You can understand, on some level, why Hunt would choose Scott Pioli. He offered to stabilize the organization based upon the Patriots structure of success.

So, is there really a problem with that? Absolutely yes.

What Scott Pioli was offering was the “same-ole-same-ole” of the New England “system.” What’s wrong with that you may ask?

There has never been anything in the New England way of doing things, from year to year, that has stayed the same (except Belichick and Brady).

Examine some given notions about the Patriots Way and how those notions have been “modified”:

A. A successful organization requires the Right-53 → Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco all remodeled that definition.
B. Experienced players on defense wins Championships → that used to be the case but, last year’s mutation of the Pats produced a defense that was 31st in the league in total defense but, nearly still won the Super Bowl.
C. If everybody does their job, we’ll be successful → this may be the biggest Patriots Way myth of all, because unless Tom Brady is there to do his job it appears that New England won’t even be in the running (see 2008, when Matt Cassel took over for the injured Brady).
D. There’s no “I” in “Team” → see A. above. The Pats have been perfectly willing to morph with “I” players. It doesn’t always work but, they do it anyway. In the case of Corey Dillon, it helped bring another ring to bean-town.

Last year, in an article by Andy Benoit for the New York Times, he cited that the Patriot Way comes down to “out-scheming and out-executing the enemy” on the football field.

Benoit goes on to spell out how this is possible for New England,

“Because (Tom) Brady is Mensa quality when it comes to dissecting a defense at the line of scrimmage, and because he has arguably the best pocket mechanics in  football, the Patriots are able to first create a system and then find the players to run it… Most offenses build their passing attack on timing and stretching the field. The Patriots – especially in this post-Randy Moss era – are the opposite. The patterns their receivers run are often determined by what the defense shows. It’s up to the receiver to correctly assess the coverage – often on the fly – and execute accordingly. Because of this, the Patriots don’t look for size and speed at wide receiver; they look for intelligence and precise route running.”

It’s incongruous for Scott Pioli, or even his most ardent of fans, to believe that bringing Matt Cassel with him from New England could even come close to approximating the same outcomes on the field of play, much less achieve anything close to their record, as the B&B led Patriots. The Chiefs record of 22-34, covering the past three and a half years, would support that.

Scott Pioli tried to steal the blueprint, when it’s clear that blueprint couldn’t replicated.

It’s like taking a novice cook and asking them to duplicate Emeril Lagasse’s Red Wine and Port Braised Short Ribs. However, Brady and Belichick like to alter their recipes on an ongoing basis so there’s actually no such thing as copying them.

It takes a certain, je ne sais quoi… or you could say, pan ache! I would never in a million years use these words to describe Scott Pioli. If anything, he’s more like a Bill Parcels wannabe or closer yet, automaton… or more like a fry cook at Winstead’s (honest, the last thing I want to do is to give Winstead’s a bad name).

If you’re thinking that the Chiefs could use a little “Stepford Wives” colony of the Patriots success just remember, there is no cloning Belichick or Brady. That would be like trying to make an identical clone of a wave in the ocean.

What Scott Pioli lacks — are his own original ideas.

Thomas Edison once said, “Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.” That’s the frustrating thing about Pioli, he lacks the one-percent solution. Copying your classmate’s homework won’t land you on the dean’s list, no matter how much work you put into the copying process.

Scott Pioli simply doesn’t have “it” in him.

So, what is “it?”

Answer: the ability to consistently adapt, innovate, diversify, restyle approaches, shift gears, fluctuate, transform or even incorporate novelty (Todd Haley liked to occasionally use the novel approach and it often inspired his troops). BTW… Todd Haley seems to be doing well these days.

Now, Scott Pioli is a great “organizer.” However, you may not want a celebrated “clutter consultant” running your multimillion dollar organization that bears the name of a major metropolitan area.

What has now become problematic for Pioli is that he’s chosen a head coach who brings an equal measure of the heart-numbing monotony to the table as Pioli himself.

While Head Coach Romeo Crennel has in the past been able to implement defensive schemes that bewitch and befuddle, either his methods have become over-exposed or his dual role as HC/DC hasn’t allowed him to be as effective at doing either one. Apologies to Gary Gibbs but, does anyone really believe that naming him DC in the middle of the season is going to change the Chiefs woeful defensive fortunes?

About his decision coach Crennel said he doesn’t want his players “perception” to be that he is a defensive coach only. However, why couldn’t he see that perceptive sooner?

The combination of Todd Haley and Scott Pioli, while quietly vitriolic, was productively dynamic and in a state of metamorphosis. The team was filled with players whose growth could be measured and termed: emergent, maturing, or revitalized.

The combination of Romeo Crennel and Mr. Pioli appears to have produced a log-jam of lethargy plus one rising star in Justin Houston but, little else. The Chiefs are not only losing but, losing big. No, make that losing gi-normously.

Chiefs opponents 231, the Chiefs 127.

You know what’s next, right?

Extinction.

You know what I’m talking about… when a species loses it’s ability to adapt and consequently, dies out.

One would hope that Clark Hunt will step in soon and really re-adapt, before Pioli and Crennel kill this thing. On Monday Romeo Crennel fired half of himself. Now, if we can get someone to finish the other half and add a pinch of Pioli… we’ll really be cooking.

Happy thoughts. Go Chiefs!

The Kansas City Chiefs continued to break our hearts this past Sunday, getting trounced by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rumors have surfaced about Pioli’s (and even Crennel’s) future with the team. Though this article was pre-planned by a couple weeks, it’s actually as good a time as any to look ahead to the 2013 offseason to see how the Chiefs’ cards fall as it concerns the roster and salary cap.

To kickoff, let’s start out by listing which players’ contracts are expiring at the end of this season.

A few names that I’m sure have popped out are Albert, Bowe & Dorsey, as they’ve been the most talked-about players whose contracts will be expiring (such talk dating back to at least April), with a lot of that talk being related to how high of a contract these players may demand. Two other names that pop out to me (though whose contracts should be exponentially cheaper) are Colquitt and Gafford. Not only should a punter’s and long-snapper’s value to a team not be underestimated, but they’re among the only players who have been consistently performing up to standard all season.

A lot of how we view what player personnel changes should be made relies on a general idea of how much a player would likely demand and how much money is likely available for the team to use on these players. It’s the latter portion of this speculation that I (and my Spotrac-obsessed hind parts) primarily hope to shed light on this week.

At last announcement, the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million remaining in cap availability; though I’ve indicated in past that some of this money many be promised to players in the form of NLTBE incentives (and thereby wouldn’t show up until next season after the player has earned said incentive, we’ll assume for the sake of this exercise that either such NLTBEs were not set or, if they were set, weren’t met. So the Chiefs should have at least $14.5 million in cap space available next season by rollover alone, but how else is the team looking?

Running the numbers on next season’s non-FAs (read: guys that’ll still be on roster), I’ve discovered that the team currently is set to be allocating approximately $117 million towards cap hitting player expenses. It is likely that next year’s league defined cap will be in the same range as this year’s set cap which is $120.6 million. So, before factoring in rollover money, the Chiefs are only set to have about $3.6 million freed up to spend on FAs (regardless of whether they’re the Chiefs’ own or from other teams). That’s not counting the estimated $7 million dollars that will be required to spend on next season’s draft class. So, without the rollover, the Chiefs are in the hole $3.4 million.

Looks pretty bad at first glance, but let’s tack on the rollover money: that would put the Chiefs $11.1 million under cap after the rookie class is taken into consideration. Okay, now that doesn’t look as bad, but there are at least three big names up for FA and $11.1 million cap availability looks to be able to sign only one.

There appears to be a way around this, but it’s one that Pioli may not like as it involves two of “his” players:

1) Tyson Jackson, through “help” of a contract escalator, is set to be making $14.72 million in base salary next season and has also caused additional cap hits through bonuses amounting to $2.525 million. According to NFL.com’s Brian McIntyre (formerly of Mac’s Football Blog), Tyson Jackson’s 2013 base salary is only guaranteed for $3.22 million. So it looks like a certain someone should probably be cut. In doing so, the Chiefs would free up $11.5 million dollars in cap space (as indicated in a previous article, bonus money has a way of becoming dead money, so we’re looking at $14.72 million minus the guaranteed $3.22 million the Chiefs would be required to pay Jackson out of cap hitting funds). Now we’re up to $22.6 million in available cap space in 2013.

2) Matt Cassel. Though I’ve been unable to locate how much, if any, of Matt Cassel’s base salary for 2013 & 2014 is guaranteed, we’ll assume for this exercise that none of it is, and the only Chiefs obligation would come from bonuses. Cassel is currently set to cause a $9.825 million cap hit in 2013. Were he cut (and again assuming that none of the base salary is guaranteed), the Chiefs would be looking to spend $4.2 million in dead money, freeing up about $5.625 million in 2013. This would bring the available cap space to $28.225 million dollars (assuming a Jackson cut… and, at his ludicrous 2013 salary, why shouldn’t we want to see Jackson cut?).

Now, I realize I just threw out a bunch of numbers in sentence-form, which, if you’re anything like me, makes it a little harder to follow and reference. So to make the presentation of this information a little bit easier, I’ve devised the following table

“EOS” refers to the summation of the expected cap hit Entering the OffSeason (includes both players on roster, including Jackson and Cassel, and the rookie pool of approx. $7 mil). Current rollover is what it sounds like: money that may be expected to be rolled over and help alleviate the cap room. The $11.5 million in the “Jackson” column is what could be expected to be loosened up in cap space were TJax to be cut; same with the $5.625 million in the “Cassel” column.

So the question arises: how should this potential cap money be spent? To help facilitate this line of thinking I’ve developed the following hypothetical situations.

NOTE: One thing to remember in doing these hypotheticals is that, of the 18 positions open due to contracts expiring, seven will be filled through draft (at least as of now, and whose cap hit has already been accounted for in the figures) and two (the lowest priced ones) won’t count towards the cap (cap is determined by the highest 51 contracts of the 53-man roster come the regular season), so nine spots will need to be filled through re-signing the Chiefs FAs, or signing FAs from other teams, or signing UDFAs after the draft. These nine spots will cause a minimum cap hit of $3.51 million [determined as the minimum (rookie) contract of $390,000 X 9 spots].

Hypothetical Situation #1

For whatever reason (brain damage, maybe?), it’s decided to not cut Jackson or Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $11.1 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #2

You’re slightly less brain-damaged and decide to cut Cassel and leave Jackson be. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $16.725 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #3

You’ve decided to cut Jackson, but leave Cassel on board for back-up purposes (he’s an expensive back-up, but provides a veteran presence/experience at the position, so you think the harm to the cap outweighs allowing a rookie squad plus Stanzi to run solo). After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $22.6 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #4

You’ve made the decision to cut both Jackson and Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $28.225 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Bonus: Hindsight Hypothetical

Not knowing how this season would play out up to this point, you decide to sign all the players in FA that Pioli decided to sign, but you’ve decided to tweak the offseason slightly by also re-signing Carr. The terms of the agreement are the same terms the Cowboys offered him. For the sake of this hypothetical we’re assuming matching these terms would be enough for him to re-sign with the Chiefs, childhood dreams be damned. This season, Carr’s contract hits the cap by $3.2 million; in 2013, it hits the cap by $16.3 million. The rollover money is now $11.3 million (the current $14.5 million minus the $3.2 million cap hit). In adding Carr onto the 2013 roster, and taking rookie cap into account, the new 2013 cap obligations amount to $140.3 million. After deducting the new rollover amount ($11.3 mil), you’re down to $129 million in cap obligations. The league defined cap is still $120.6 mil; you have to come into compliance. Cutting Cassel wouldn’t be enough to come into compliance ($129 mil minus $5.625 mil is still greater than $120.6 mil), so your hand is forced in cutting Jackson to free up that $11.5 mil. Without additionally cutting Cassel (yet), the cap obligations decrease to $118.5 leaving only $2.1 million in available cap (not even enough to re-sign Colquitt). Now by cutting Cassel the available cap can be increased to $7.725. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

____________

Of the four, still possible, hypotheticals, I’d personally subscribe to Hypothetical Situation #4. Cutting Jackson seems to me to be a no-brainer (no way is he worth $17.245 million, and I’d rather tie up $5.745 mil in dead money in 2013 for the sake of having the remaining $11.5 million available to help with re-signing players or potentially dabbling in FA with other teams’ players). Though, with Quinn entering FA, cutting Cassel leaves the team without a QB on roster with regular season experience, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing the Chiefs “double-tap” the QB position in the draft (ideally, Geno Smith in Round 1 and, if he or someone like him drops so far, someone like Collin Klein in Round 3 – keeping in mind that the loss of Carr will likely earn the Chiefs a compensatory Round 3 draft pick); it’d be a risk, what with both players having no NFL experience, but it’s a risk I’d like to see be taken. I know, it’s probably crazy to draft two QBs such as the ‘Skins did this past draft with RGIII and Kirk Cousins, and especially crazy given the team I’m suggesting do it (our beloved Chiefs) given the team’s history in this regard, but God help me, if Klein is available later, despite the Heisman hype, I’d love to see a QB with his fight and passion as the #2 keeping guys pumped on the sideline, and I’d trust someone like him to not do any worse than the Chiefs QBs this year were a situation to arise where he’d have to play. I’m sure it’s a pipe dream, but that’s part of what this exercise is about.

As for how I’d like to see the freed up $28.225 million spent: I’d prefer to see Bowe and Albert re-signed for certain. Given the average costs of WRs and LTs of similar quality, this could cost as little as $8 million in 2013 (akin to Carr’s deal with the ‘Boys where he accepted an incredibly low base salary in the 1^st year of the contract, given that he still received $10 million in signing bonus this season, and just allowed the team to prorate it over the course of five seasons at $2 million a season) or it could cost as high as $20 million (taking the average cap hits of comparable players’ contracts). I’ll assume the 2013 costs to be somewhere in between at $14.225 total for both players (2014’s projected cap hit based on active contracts is only $84.894378, so a deal structure closer to Carr’s wouldn’t be nearly as damaging that year).

So, in my scenario, I’m down to $14 million available. I’d definitely re-sign Colquitt and Gafford who, combined, would likely hit the cap by $3.5 million in 2013, leaving $10.5 million available.

Given that I’d be cutting one starting DE (Jackson) and letting the other walk in FA (Dorsey), I’d probably re-sign Pitoitua (whose re-signing I’m estimating to hit the 2013 cap by $1.5 million) and would gun for a DE in either Round 3 (compensatory Carr pick) or Round 4 in the draft.

Down to $9 million in cap space, I might also bring back Edgar Jones and Lilja (estimating a $2.7 million combined cap hit in 2013, $800,000 for Jones and $1.9 mil for Lilja). Jones has been a boost to ST this year and provides okay LB depth (and is one less position to be targeted in the draft) and Lilja would provide reliable back-up depth, if nothing more, and would help keep the OL more intact as they continue to gel together in this year’s new zone blocking system.

Two cap-hitting roster spots remain in this scenario and I’ll assume they’ll be filled by rookie UDFAs (for a cap hit of about $800,000) bringing the remaining money down to about $5.9 million, which I might let ride into 2014.

For the draft I’d target: QB, ILB (I’m letting both Belcher and Siler walk after all), DE & DB (in that order of importance).

As for my thoughts on the “Hindsight Hypothetical”: Carr really doesn’t look like he’d have been worth it. With only $7.725 mil remaining, which is really only about $4.225 mil after deducting the minimum $3.51 mil for nine open roster spots (which I mentioned in my “note” up there), a ton of useful players would need to be allowed to walk and maybe one of Bowe, Albert or Dorsey (at absolute best) could’ve been re-signed. At risk to be replaced through rookies (by drafting or signing as UDFA) would’ve been QB (Cassel would’ve had to been cut, which looks like an inevitability now, but had he returned to 2010 form would be deemed a problem, and Quinn probably couldn’t be re-signed even if you wanted to), both starting DEs and one of the back-up DEs, two out of three starting OL positions (Albert & Lilja), star WR (Bowe), starting ILB (Belcher) and his best back-up option (Siler), the punter, the long snapper, and two veteran S’s (Daniels and Elam; leaving only current rookie Tysyn Hartman and rookie IR player De’quan Menzie as backups). That would be cause for a massive rebuild (all those positions can’t be addressed in the draft, and not early enough in the draft to be hopeful about the players’ ability to replace the lost players with an equal or higher level) and would put the Chiefs in a much, much worse position than the team currently finds itself in. Not signing Winston, Boss or Routt would’ve cleared up about a maximum of $10 mil to be rolled over into next season, and cleared up active contract requirements in 2013 to the tune of about $18.2 mil for a total of $28.2 mil. These are much nicer figures for signing at least two of the big three in 2013, but doesn’t address the issue of what to do about RT this season (whichever choice being made decreasing the rollover amount), or the depth at TE this season (a “contingency plan” being a top concern considering Moeaki’s early injury in 2011), and the secondary depth would still be the same it is today (meaning it would still not be good enough). Maybe things could’ve worked out, but considering it would require leaving nearly $24.5 mil in available cap this year (for the intent purpose of rolling the money over to help during the 2013 season), the heat from fans and media for any underperformance while having greater cap space availability would be even hotter than it is now; not to mention the heat turning up if Moeaki fell to injury without preemptive back-up efforts being made, or BRich received an extension.

As for whether or not the Chiefs should make a play on Matt Flynn or another prospect to help turn around this season now: just keep in mind that the acquisition of such a player would decrease the available funds for rollover into 2013, and that if such player had a contract for more than just this 2012 season you’d have to increase the cap numbers for 2013, too . This would also affect the hypotheticals and how likely it’d be to re-sign who you deem to be key players next year*. Trading for a QB or picking up a QB from FA (McNabb?? Garrard??) might not be as harmful as re-signing Carr could’ve been. The re-signing of Carr would have not only decreased how much cap was left to rollover into 2013 by $3 mil, but also would have added the obligation of a $16.3 mil cap hit to next season which is what would’ve made it so potentially damaging. So, if you feel a QB now would be worth the cost, feel free to hypothesize in the Comments section, just be mindful that how money is spent in this season does have an effect on what personnel moves may be made next season.

*Assuming that all that changes hands are Flynn and draft picks. If someone like Bowe were traded for Flynn directly, or traded to MIA for picks, and picks traded to SEA for Flynn, then the loss of Bowe’s salary would make up for the addition of Flynn’s. In that case both Albert and Dorsey could be re-signed next year, if so chosen, what with Bowe out of the mix.

Let me hear your thoughts. Which hypothetical would you use? Who would you re-sign? What positions (and maybe even who, specifically) would you target in the draft? After seeing a more comprehensive look at the cap figures, do you think signing Carr would’ve been more trouble than it was worth? Are you still frustrated about this year’s available cap space, even after seeing situations in which it might be put to better use next year? Do you feel a different QB now would be worth the cost elsewhere?

Let me hear it all; I’m curious as to what options my fellow Addicts think would be possible in terms of player personnel moves intended to make the 2013 Chiefs a more competitive team. Despite being mostly realistic, I was admittedly a little pie-in-the-sky with my hopes of drafting both Geno and Klein; feel free to do similarly (but let’s try to not go too extreme into complete delusion, as euphoric as it might be, and keep it more in the realm of realism and where we think our Chiefs might be headed).

Sound off, Addicts!

It’s been a rough week for the Kansas City Chiefs and their fans. That is also probably the understatement of the week. Negative attitudes are at a high, and there are so many things at work that it’s difficult to sort things through and address things equally and/or fairly. But here’s my perspective on the varying issues, maybe you’ll agree, maybe you’ll disagree, but hopefully I can bring a few things to light which may have previously gone unconsidered. Some of what I say will be supported by facts, some by speculation in the absence of publicly available facts (such as Pioli’s “master plan”, assuming he has one), but the main intent is to present information or perspective that may not be currently represented (or is, at least, underrepresented). As some (if not most… if not all) of these views are likely to be unpopular or underrepresented, I’m prepared for a hailstorm of comments to the contrary. In the interests of perpetuating a well-reasoned, well-thought-out discourse, I kindly request such comments remain cordial.

Chiefs Ownership

Though owned by the Lamar Hunt family, through Hunt Sports Group, through Unity Hunt LLC, when one thinks of Kansas City Chiefs ownership, one thinks of the family-elected CEO and Chairman Clark Hunt. Simply saying the name “Clark Hunt” will send chills down a large number of Chiefs’ fans spines.

Clark Hunt has been associated with cheapness, caring more about the bottom dollar than team success/glory, and caring less about the Kansas City fanbase and community. That he lives in Dallas, TX is usually a shot taken by fans and media as indication of his lack of caring for the fanbase and community, and that cap availability numbers inaccurately represent how much a team is spending on its players have given him the label of being cheap.

I do not agree with a lot of the negativity surrounding Clark Hunt. For those of you who read my  article two weeks ago, you should know by now that the Kansas City Chiefs have not been cheap in their player spending, having amassed the highest paid team in the NFL this season according to salary cap figures. If you did not read that article, it may be more conducive to your fair assessment of Clark Hunt to do so now. The article provides insight into team spending for all NFL teams and how certain aspects of salary cap management function. To summarize the article for the sake of expedience, Clark Hunt isn’t being cheap on the player spending. This also feeds into how much Clark Hunt cares about the bottom dollar. Though I’m sure the Hunt family’s business interests in the Chiefs would keep them from wanting the organization to start functioning in the red, the same could be said of any business’s or organization’s owner(s) ever. Something can only be supported for so long when it’s not earning revenues equal to or greater than its expenses. That’s just basic economics.

In regards to his consideration for the fanbase and for the Kansas City community, more consideration is being given than the Hunt family has been commonly assessed. One of the chief complaints is that the on-the-field product is not equating to what a lot of Chiefs fans consider to be fair prices for stadium attendance. They don’t feel they’re getting the bang for their buck; a sentiment that is amplified in rough economic times where how one spends what money one has is greatly scrutinized by the spender. So, how does the Chiefs’ gameday experience stack up against the 31 NFL teams? Every year Team Marketing Report in Chicago, IL researches this very question. Here is a chart of the average ticket prices for a fan to attend a game at each of the NFL stadiums; it should be noted the cost and quantity of premium seating is not included in these averages:

The average NFL ticket price is reported as $78.38, well above what the average ticket price to Arrowhead costs. Even factoring out the five highest ticket prices (all above $100) the average ticket price for the 27 lowest price teams is $71.84, still firmly above the Arrowhead average. What may be of additional interest is that Team Marketing Report also tracks the percentage changes in ticket prices for each NFL team. TMR determined that the average NFL ticket price has increased by 2.5% compared to last season. Fifteen NFL teams saw no change in their ticket prices. Of the remaining seventeen teams nine increased ticket prices [the lowest being the Seahawks by 1%, the highest being the Bears by 9.2%], and six lowered ticket prices. The Kansas City Chiefs are not only counted among the six NFL teams that lowered ticket prices, but KC decided to decrease their prices by the second-most percentage* [2.6%]. As part of their report, TMR provided the NFL average cost dating back to the 2007 season; even going back that far, the current Chiefs’ pricing does not meet or exceed the league average.

*Only the Bengals decreased their ticket prices by a greater percentage[4.2%]; however TMR’s research showed that, of the six clubs that decided to decrease ticket prices, the Bengals were one of two clubs that decided to lower ticket prices following lower fan attendance during the 2011 season; the second team being the Bills.

TMR also researched the average premium ticket costs and the cost of beer, soft drinks, hot dogs, parking, programs and caps as part of their study. Their figures on beer and soft drinks are based on the smallest sizes available at each stadium, and their figures on caps are based on the least expensive, adult-size adjustable caps at each stadium. In these categories, the Kansas City Chiefs exceed the league average in only two of them: 1) Hot Dogs – in excess of 66 cents, and 2) Average Premium Ticket costs in excess of $26.30.

As part of their report TMR created a cost index comprised of the costs of four average-price tickets, two small beers, four small soft drinks, four regular-size hot dogs, parking for one car, two game programs and two of the least expensive, adult-size adjustable caps. The reported cost index for such a gameday experience for each team is as follows:

As can be seen, the Chiefs rank as the fourth cheapest team in terms of the cost index. TMR determined that the average NFL cost index has increased by 3.9% compared to last season. Only two NFL teams saw no change in their cost index. Of the remaining thirty teams twenty-six saw an increase in cost index [the lowest increase being the Cardinals by 0.3%, the highest being the Bears by 16.3%], and four saw decreases in their cost index. The Kansas City Chiefs are not only counted among the four NFL teams that lowered the overall cost of an average gameday experience, but KC decreased their prices by the second-most percentage [1.6%] with only the Jets showing a greater decrease [1.9%].

So though some, including The Arrowhead Adventurer, may not care for certain organization initiatives, such as the switch to paperless tickets (thereby depriving fans of the memento of ticket stubs), savings are being passed onto the fans by making such changes (I, for one, always tended to rip/disfigure ticket stubs from any events I’ve attended and, as a result, do not partake in that particular keepsake practice… as such, I’d personally prefer more efficient line movement).

Does this forgive the disparity between on-the-field product and the associated costs? Not incredibly. We’d still all like to see the Chiefs be more competitive and in championship contention; an increase in quality without an increase in cost. But at least you’ve been afforded the opportunity to see what other teams’ fans are paying out on gameday, and I think we can all agree that being a Jets fan has to suck considerably more by a quality to cost comparison.

As for the Hunt family living in Dallas, this is the way it’s always been. Lamar Hunt’s ability to finance a football team came from the wealth earned by his father, H.L. Hunt, in conjunction with Hunt Oil. Though Lamar Hunt’s branch of the Hunt family tree no longer holds a stake in Hunt Oil, there are many other business ventures they do own a stake in which are, for the most part, based in Dallas. In the early days, when the Dallas Cowboys (who at the time were much less successful than the Dallas Texans) started taking attention away from Lamar Hunt’s beloved football team, and he resigned to the fact that sentiment was not enough to continue functioning in Dallas when the previous three seasons found the organization in the red, he sought to move that team to a city that would give a damn. The speculated options at the time were for a move to be made to either Oakland or Kansas City. After what was described as a “cloak-and-dagger” affair,  Kansas City’s mayor and Hunt agreed to stage a season ticket run to determine if the new city would be devoted enough to the sport to garner the team with the attention Lamar felt it deserved. Obviously Kansas City met Lamar Hunt’s expectations as we know that he moved the team there; however, what may not be known is that Kansas City fell far short of the set season ticket goal (25,000 tickets) in that they only sold tickets in the 13,000-14,000 tickets by the given deadline. Lamar still felt that the city showed enough devotion and passion (despite not meeting the ticket sales threshold) that he decided to move the Texans to Kansas City.

Nowhere is it mentioned or even suggested that Lamar Hunt agreed to pull up his family’s stakes to move to Kansas City. A lot of tradition and business interests already existed in Dallas for that to have been part of the deal. That same family tradition continues to this day. The Chiefs are but a part of Hunt Sports Inc., and Hunt Sports Inc. is but a part of Unity Hunt LLC. To expect numerous businesses, and a family’s tradition, to be uprooted for the sake of one of those business ventures (though the Kansas City Chiefs are the most recognizable) is asking a lot, and probably too much

Does this mean that the Hunts and the Chiefs don’t care about Kansas City? Not in the least. By my count the Hunts through the Kansas City Chiefs have 15 steady community service programs devoted to helping various aspects of the Greater Kansas City Community. Players are encouraged to actively participate in giving back to the community. And new initiatives such as the Chiefs partnership with the University of Kansas Medical School are geared towards ultimately helping the Kansas City community as a whole. These are not the actions of an ownership that doesn’t care about its fans or its team’s city’s citizens. In fact, their devotion to the community is a large part of why I am of a fan of the organization and have remained a fan through the tougher years; they may not always win (or even be competitive) but the organization’s devotion to contribute beyond what the game dictates is, by my estimation, admirable and should not be diminished by how they play 16 days a year.

Also, when it was obvious things were not progressing under Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards, Clark Hunt made a move to obtain one of the most decorated executives in the football industry, and spared no expense to bring him in to help the franchise (something an owner that doesn’t care wouldn’t do), which brings us to:

Chiefs Management

I don’t know what to think about Pioli. On the one hand Kent Babb has painted a pretty bad picture of Pioli. On the other hand, Babb also neglected to look into team finances and painted the Hunts as cheap on players though they appear to be anything but*, and generated negativity on that front where negativity wasn’t due.

Aside: I’m still astounded by that one. I’m a legal assistant in Pennsylvania, devoting nearly 60 hours a week towards my day job with a wife and 2-year-old daughter also garnering my attention, and I was still able to do more thorough research on that front (cross-checking my findings across many independent sources with no team affiliation for slant) and reported this as part of my contribution to this website. It was Kent Babb’s day job to do such things for which I’m sure he got amply paid, and he couldn’t do that much??? I guess I’m saying I’ve re-read Babb’s articles with a grain of salt as I am not satisfied with his research abilities (or lack thereof).

In Michael Holley’s book “War Room”, it is indicated (and I’m paraphrasing here) that when Pioli arrived in Kansas City, the Chiefs staff and scouts were complacent and unmotivated, which (by that point in the book) were distinguished as work habits in conflict with Pioli’s own work ethic. Holley (in juxtaposition to Babb) painted Pioli as a hard worker who would sooner have his work product exceed his paycheck than his paycheck exceed his work product.

If that is his work ethic, and the incumbent staff did not put their hearts into their jobs and strive towards the goal of making the Chiefs organization a championship product, I can understand the turnover ratio. There are no salary cap concerns in the front office; severance packages maybe (and they could be pillaging Hunt’s pockets for all we know), but not a set number that the organization may not exceed in accounting terms. If these people were not earning their paychecks (admittedly by Pioli’s standards), then I can understand Pioli taking swift action in terminating them and bringing in new people. I can even understand him bringing in people he knew from his time with the Patriots (as he likely had previous knowledge of these individuals’ work ethics, knowledge and talents).

The desire to have people who work for you do their damnedest and take more pride in doing their work in excess of expectations rather than taking the mentality of “I’m doing just as much as I think my pay warrants” (such people usually overestimating how much pay they’ve ‘earned’ through the work they’ve actually done) is also something I can understand, and would explain the so-called “wire-tapping”. I work for government, we have the same systems in check. E-mail, phone logs, etc. are monitored to determine how much company time the worker is spending on personal business (i.e. how much non-work they’re performing during hours they’re getting paid for). It isn’t incredibly shocking that a multi-million dollar business would partake in such monitoring. Again, if the workers were as complacent as Michael Holley indicated, it may be of utmost importance to changing the culture of football operations from people who care more for how much they could soak the organization for than how much they could contribute to the organization’s success.

If Pioli (or any other GM that could’ve been, or could still be, brought in) wanted to change a complacent culture satisfied with doing the bare minimum and having little interest in a championship that was gained by more than luck (if hard work was the alternative), I think we’d all be supportive of that change.

That being said, I doubt the candy wrapper story was made up, to which I can only say this: I can understand wondering why the hell you’re paying maintenance to do a job they’re obviously not doing (the wrapper was sitting for about a week after all… which by my count is at least 4 days too long, even if they were understaffed or only cleaned two to three days a week), but the taking of the wrapper as evidence makes the whole incident automatically extreme (and sounds on par with Mitch Hedberg’s “donut receipt” joke). That definitely could’ve been handled a lot better.

As far as his plans for rebuilding and his apparent secrecy of these plans are concerned, it’s frustrating as hell only being able to speculate what his intentions are/were. I, for one, believe (or maybe just really hope) that the plan was/is to build up the supporting cast first and drop in the intended franchise QB last. This would help prevent “David Carr Syndrome” or other 1^st round busts such as Brady Quinn was in Cleveland. Instead of custom building an entire team to one guy’s talents (thereby making it more difficult should that one guy go down), it would entail building a talented team and allowing the last guy (QB) to adjust to the talents around him (thereby making it less disastrous should that one guy go down temporarily). To get the QB first and build the team around him is akin to making the QB the entire foundation’s cornerstone. If it’s later learned that that cornerstone is not of the quality it was believed to be, the building stands to get irreparably damaged. To get the QB last is akin to building a quality structure first and using the QB as the capstone. If the capstone is of lesser quality than was expected, so what? It’s less damaging to the structure to replace a damaged capstone than to replace a damaged cornerstone. The downside is that, as fans, we don’t know if this is the plan until it happens. It could very well be. It could very well be that Cassel was perceived to be the guy for real (rather than a QB deemed adequate to man the helm while the rebuilding took place… I guess in my metaphor “the scaffolding”). Will Pioli say? No.

Which brings us to the secrecy. I can understand this to an extent. Part of the existence of a salary cap in the NFL is to promote competition and to provide no team with an unfair competitive advantage due to finances. But each team wants a competitive edge to build the strongest team possible within the restrictions of these limited resources. Kansas City is not a large market, so the competitive edge of “come here, we’ll make you famous” isn’t much of one for Chiefs execs (past, current or foreseeable future). Fan loyalty can help lure talent, but that’s more our thing than a FO thing. The Chiefs don’t have overwhelming, modern day championship prestige (yet). So what competitive edges can there be? I would reason that not letting your competition know your goals heading into deals would prove to be a great advantage. If everyone expected KC to draft a QB in the first round of next year’s draft (let’s say they finished with a pick lower than No. 1 Overall), and a move was made to jockey the team in the position to draft the QB of their choice, how much greater would the trade cost be knowing that the team’s intent is to draft a team’s most valuable asset (QB)? If, however, you lowered your trade partner’s expectations to believe that your intent is in the interest of drafting a lesser position player, that deal will likely become less costly (meaning that your own team can hold onto more assets, be it player, asset, or money to re-invest in another portion of the team). It’s a competitive edge built on manipulating others’ speculation of your intents, and there may be considerable success in doing so; unfortunately, the decision to put your competitor’s speculation in doubt also casts doubt within your fanbase’s speculation.

As for owning up to his mistakes, I’ll go back to Babb and the salary cap situation: Babb (local media) fabricated a negative misconception of something the Chiefs were actually doing well and it spread like a fire causing a wave of damage in its wake. That was with bad knowledge of a situation the team was actually doing pretty well. What could be expected of this same local media if Pioli admitted to an actual error? Holy bejeezus, that would not end well.

Overall, I can appreciate wanting personnel dedicated to making the franchise a perennial contender, and I can understand building the supportive components of a team up first before dropping in the franchise QB. It’s not the broad goals behind (what I think is) Pioli’s rebuilding plan I question, so much as Pioli’s execution of this plan. Keep the ideology, but do better at enacting the plan (or, Clark, find someone else who can).

Eric Winston

Spoke in a moment of passion. While morally justified in sentiment, he lacked the censorship to scope his claims down to only indicate the fans that partook in the behavior. CBA dictates that players are open to media. He spoke to media in conjunction with this clause. So, I really can’t begrudge him the action of speaking with the media.

I’ve been saying for weeks that negativity from fans affects the players more than fans might think. After weeks of negativity, and the greetings of a negative banner on Sunday, he construed some cheers as being in the morally negative bent. Looking through comments on various sites pertaining to this issue, it’s easy to find people admittedly partaking in this deplorable behavior (cheering a player getting injured), so Winston’s perception of the intent behind some of these cheers does hold some merit.

There is some understandable and justifiable betrayal felt on behalf of the fans (at least the portions whom, in a moment of passion, Winston lumped in with the bad ones), but attempting to look at thing empathetically from Winston’s point of view, the portion of fans that cheered Cassel’s injury are a part of the same fanbase whose overwhelming response to his FA visit convinced him to stop seeking potentially greater fortune, and a greater media market, elsewhere and to settle for less money if it meant great fans. He made a major life choice based on how great the fanbase presented itself to him, and in short time saw just how negative the fanbase/local media could get [the local media is crawling with negativity, fans (though not all) have been acting out in negative fashions for weeks (even if just verbally), and it culminated with a portion of those fans doing something so deplorable and anti-supportive of the players]. Given that consideration, I wouldn’t be surprised if Winston felt a little bit of betrayal, too.

Ultimately my point on this is that fan attitude does affect player attitude, and this whole fiasco is a case in point.

Fans who cheered Cassel’s injury

Winston was correct in stating that this is not the Roman Coliseum and the players are not gladiators.

For those that use the flawed logic that NFL stadiums are constructed in the image of the Roman Coliseum so football is like the modern equivalent, you should probably know that the architectural design of NFL stadiums is not intended as an allegory to ancient Rome. The Romans designed the Coliseum as they did because it architecturally allowed for greater seating capacity. The properties of such design haven’t changed, and this is why stadiums are made in such a fashion. Incidentally, uncomfortable-as-all-get-out bleacher seating may also be used to accommodate more people. It’s an attendance maximization thing, not a throwback to days of yore.

For those that use the logic that “it’s okay to cheer MMA and boxing, so why not a football player’s injury?”, you should probably know that the rules are different going into each contest. Beating the crap out of each other is an integral part of MMA and boxing matches, and the participants willingly submit themselves to such punishment. Incidentally, it’s not unheard of for professionals in these sports to schedule matches several months apart to accommodate for the fact that they’re going to get brutalized and need copious amounts of time to recover in between bouts. Injuries in football, on the other hand, are incidental to the sport (not integral) and any action done by a player to intentionally injure another (or even that increase the odds of injury, such as helmet-to-helmet shots) are generally frowned upon. Remember that whole Bounty scandal thing? Yeah, the main part of that was the targeting of players for the purpose of injury (that money may or may not have been put towards these goals is secondary). Remember all those fines players accrue for helmet-to-helmet hits? Yeah, that’s what those are about, too.

There’s no denying that big hits or hard hits get a viewer’s adrenaline going, or that it is pants-crappingly awesome to see a player pop back up from such hits like they’re no big deal. But sometimes those players don’t bounce back up, and that’s when it’s time for humanity to kick back in. Maybe if the injury is a more minor one (ankle sprain, broken finger, etc.) to an opponent’s superstar, you can thank your lucky stars that your team got a reprieve from his awesomeness for the rest of the game, but when you get into potentially life-altering injuries such as concussions, ACL tears and the ilk, it’s time to dial it down.

To those of you convinced that Cassel’s injury is the only thing that would take him out of the line-up and that your voice isn’t being heard, you may be right, you may not be right. Maybe Cassel really was the best QB on the squad (I just vomited in my mouth a little). That being said, I personally didn’t care for the public display of discord by use of a banner flying over Arrowhead; such displays have the potential to place the fanbase as a whole in a bad light. That being said, I respect that you care so much about your team to spend extra money for such a display,

I would suggest and alternative: it may go against younger generations’ grain to not make public statements (ala Facebook or Twitter), but there’s a thing called letter writing that involves a pen and paper which would be more low key (as in less inflammatory to the fanbase) and cheaper, too. I’m in no way condoning sending threatening letters to One Arrowhead Drive (that’s kind of illegal), but sending letters highlighting your devotion to the team and expressing your disapproval of certain things that are being done which you don’t agree with (preferably with well-reasoned arguments, as you’d be taken more seriously) might be much more effective. As I write this, it occurs to me that Lamar Hunt was fond of conducting business via letter writing (even as technology advanced into allowing more instant communications), so to do so as a fanbase may very well strike a personal chord within the Hunt family as it pertains to fan concerns. The least that could be expected? Solid evidence of fans’ concerns that can’t be as easily discarded and ignored as pressing a “Trash” button in e-mail. Pioli flipped over a candy wrapper, how much attention do you think will be paid to stacks of letters filling up the joint?

Hopefully some of what I said has shed new light on certain things. Again, some of it is speculation, so my guess is as good as yours, but hopefully you have gotten to considering alternative intents. Tune in next week when I’ll be looking forward to 2013’s expected cap hits/player personnel moves. As always, Go Chiefs!!!

Following a disappointing loss at home to the San Diego Chargers, the Chiefs will stay inKansas City again this Sunday, this time to square off against the Baltimore Ravens. Needless to say, with the way the Chiefs have been playing thus far, this game is likely an easy write-off for most Kansas City fans, but despite this (and after a two week hiatus), I’ve decided to soldier on in the Know Your Enemy series.

Offense

The Baltimore Ravens are currently ranked 5^th in the NFL for scoring on the season, and are performing so well that some analysts and pundits have opined that the Ravens’ offensive performances have actually been exceeding its defensive performances (compared to the previous decade or so of being an indisputably defensive juggernaut).

The Ravens’ offense is steered by QB Joe Flacco. Flacco made some noise over the offseason, proclaiming himself as an “elite quarterback.” Most people chuckled to themselves upon hearing this, but he has put in a commendable season thus far. While I am not willing to label him as elite quite yet, Flacco has played with poise and engineered one fourth-quarter comeback on the year thus far (Week 3’s controversial win over the New England Patriots). In four games, Flacco has completed 63.5% of his passes for 1,269 YDs and 7 TDs, good for a passer rating of 95.8.

But what is a QB without a few good targets to throw to? Though I would not put the Ravens receivers on par with the Falcons receivers (Roddy, Julio, and Gonzo) they may well have the same amount of talent (or slightly more) spread across five players in WRs Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Jacoby Jones, and TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. The most notable of these five are Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta.

Though largely ineffective in last week’s game, Pitta has 18 catches for 188 YDs and 2 TDs on the season and appears to be a valuable target for Flacco in the red zone. Though not receiving quite the targets that Pitta is receiving, Ed Dickson also can contribute quite a bit at TE when called upon and should be perceived as something of a threat.

Meanwhile, Torrey Smith is looking to have a breakout year, having already registered 16 catches for 332 YDs and 3 TDs on the season. Some in-game commentators have sounded shocked by Torrey Smith’s on field production; however, I personally don’t find this too shocking considering that he put up pretty decent stats last season (50 catches for 841 YDs and 7 TDs) despite both having his rookie preseason shortened by the lockout and playing a significant chunk of the season with a hamstring injury.

Between Anquan Boldin and Jacoby Jones, you might think that Boldin is the bigger threat, which he may well be becoming, but up until last week Boldin has been relatively disappointing this season, not getting much separation (and, consequently, targets) during the first three games. No, after Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta, Jacoby Jones looks to be the next biggest receiving threat on this Ravens offense. Having watched all of the Ravens’ games this season, I swear Jacoby Jones seems to be good for two to three HUGE catches per game thus far. Even if Jones doesn’t appear to be much of a factor during the first three quarters of the game, the Chiefs defense should not sleep on him because he has been showing week in and week out that he can be relied upon to make crucial, fourth quarter catches even if they’re among his only targets of the game.

As for the Ravens backfield, Ray Rice continues to impress both on ground and through the air. If Flacco and the passing offense didn’t step up their game this year, you might hear a lot more chatter about Rice. Instead, it seems like Rice’s consistently great play is so expected that the passing game is the new hot thing to talk about. Rice also factors into the passing game receiving and is currently topping the Ravens charts with the most receptions (though with, understandably, less yardage given where his routes take him).

As for their offensive line, the Ravens could be doing a little better. C Matt Birk is 36 years old, and while he’s still an excellent center, a lot of his excellence comes from his knowledge of the game as his physical abilities are in decline, and LT Michael Oher of “The Blind Side” fame is not quite as good on the blind side as you’d expect him to be. I know several Ravens fans griping about wanting the team to move him back to RT where he fares better and trying again on the drafting a LT front. RT Kelechi Osemele is a rookie, LG Ramon Harewood is in his second year (though it is his first year playing in games), and RG Marshall Yanda is in his fifth.season. Yanda has been elected to the Pro Bowl once and may be Baltimore’s best OL at the moment in terms of age, position and ability.

Defense

As previously stated, the Ravens defense is starting to get overshadowed by their offense; however, this does not mean their defense is bad or even average. As much as the Ravens defense has been underperforming compared to last year (when they were No. 2 Defense overall), they are still a top ten defense (coming in at No. 10 right now).

In case you’ve been living under a rock and haven’t heard, the Ravens defense is anchored by timeless players MLB Ray Lewis and S Ed Reed. Though the good news is that these guys are a year older and a bit more of their age is showing, the bad news is (that like Tony Gonzalez) even a slightly less physically capable Lewis and Reed can still be counted among the elite at their positions. Also showing age is NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu who is actually starting to show greater signs of wear.

Besides Reed and Lewis,Baltimore’s next two greatest defenders are DE Haloti Ngata and S Bernard Pollard. You probably know Pollard from such KC snafus as “letting go of Bernard Pollard.” And if you don’t know who Ngata is or what he is capable of, you really should consider just getting rid of that aforementioned rock you’ve been living under.

One positive about facing the Ravens current defense is that they are fronting some lesser experienced players right now. The DE opposite Haloti Ngata is Pernell McPhee, a fifth round draft choice by the Ravens taken in last year’s draft. Due to the loss of LB Terrell Suggs to injury and the loss of LB Jarret Johnson to free agency, the Ravens have been forced to play with rookie Courtney Upshaw and 3^rd year player Paul Kruger at OLB and second year player Albert McClellan at MLB..

CBs Lardarius Webb and Cary Williams flesh out the starting defense, and though capable backs, are overshadowed by the stellar safety play.

Special Teams

Baltimore’s kick returner duties are handled by rookie WR Deonte Thompson and the Punt Returner duties are handled by Jacoby Jones. The Ravens’ kick return game is currently slightly better than the Chiefs’, and their punt return game is slightly worse.

Both teams’ kickers and punters look to be about a wash thus far this season, with Ravens P Sam Koch posting similar stats to Colquitt, and rookie K Justin Tucker posting comparable stats to Succop. Justin Tucker replaces Billy Cundiff at kicker after Cundiff messed up what should have been an easy kick last season in the AFC championship which kept the Ravens from the Super Bowl. It is yet to be seen if Tucker can make such clutch kicks himself, with his only real opportunity to do so this season being during the Ravens win against the Patriots in Week 3. In the last seconds of the game, Tucker shanked a FG far right of center, but luckily it was high enough to go over the top of the goalpost rather than banking off the goal post and according to the NFL Rule Book over the post counts as between the posts and such a play is non-reviewable as only the official directly underneath the post was in any position to make the call. Whether this kick was Tucker experiencing very good luck masking non-clutch play, or whether he experienced bad (but not quite bad enough) luck to turn what would normally be a clutch kick into a near miss is anyone’s guess at this point. If the game’s on the line and the ball isn’t within the 25 yard line, I’d probably be holding my breath were I a Ravens fan until enough time and opportunity passes to determine whether or not my kicker could hit a clutch kick.

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As a Chiefs fan, it is admittedly hard to go into this game with a positive outlook. If the Chiefs offense (and particularly Cassel) can play turnover-free football, there might be a fighting chance. And I don’t mean a zeroed out turnover differential where a Cassel INT is canceled out by the defense forcing a turnover. This offense, under Cassel, is likely to not be mentally tough enough to put up with one more turnover, even if it’s made up for by the defense later in the game.

But I will remain positive going into this game for one major reason: negativity is not helping this franchise succeed, and may very well be helping to make it worse.

A scientific study performed at California State University back in 2009 looked into what causes “choke” and “clutch” performances. In a nutshell, the study determined that when an individual first learns a skill, they learn it explicitly; the thought process is methodical, and the motion mechanical (slower and more awkward). After time and practice, these skills develop into becoming implicitly performed, quickly and smoothly. In the realm of pro sports, quick and smooth action tends to be paramount to success (if you telegraph a decision by going about it slower in thought and execution, bad stuff tends to happen). In studying what causes some people to choke and some to be clutch, it was determined that, as pressure to succeed gets higher, how the individual copes with the pressure has a lot to do with how they fare overall. The “chokers” allow the pressure of the situation to seep into their consciousness, they get so concerned with the implications of how they’ll perform their task that they’ll revert back to thinking of the task explicitly; their actions get slow and choppy and they tend to fail (which makes sense since they’ve basically reverted back to how they performed the task when they first learned, a/k/a when they sucked most at the task). Those capable of putting the gravity of the situation out of mind are more likely to be able to perform the task implicitly and, having refined thought and movement, are much more likely to succeed (“be clutch”).

Assuming the findings of this study are true (and I’m apt to believe them as they make perfect sense to me), being demonstratively loud and negative towards people you want to succeed appears to be counteractive to the results you want. Pressure to perform is increased, and the more pressure that mounts, the more likely the individual(s) will perform even poorer. If negativity is only going to exacerbate the problems, I’m not gonna be a part of that.

All this being said, do what you like in showing either your support or dissent, but if you do approach the situation negatively, don’t be the least bit surprised if your actions garner negative results; and not just negative results in the form of current players’ performances, but negative results in the form of luring talented people to the team to perpetuate an upgrade. If Pioli does get fired, Double D may be right in predicting Marty to be his successor; no good person without pre-existing ties to this franchise will likely want to step into such a volatile and hostile environment.

Here’s hoping for a win on Sunday. Go Chiefs.

I cannot say that it is an incompetence thing, a pride or arrogance or attitude thing, a corporate culture thing, or simply a bad luck thing, but I do know that whatever it is, it is without question a very exasperating, very disappointing, excuse-exhausted thing.  I am talking about Scott Pioli’s tenure as general manager of the Kansas City Chiefs Football Club. A hire that initially seemed all hopeful and shiny new has lost all of its brilliance, all of its hope. Sadly for us weary, die-hard fans, the time has come for Clark Hunt to own this failure, start fresh, and try once more.

To that end, I contribute my voice and my vote. I suggest a GM with a proven track record of fixing broken teams, re-infusing them with fundamental football and fiery motivation, and galvanizing all that into a highly competitive, highly feared NFL team, year in and year out. I suggest somebody who is out front with the media, articulate, unafraid to speak his mind and connects with fans in a natural, unpretentious way. I suggest somebody who is also intimately familiar with the Kansas City Chiefs, having served as the team’s head coach for 10 seasons, compiling a 105-58-1 regular season record, and making seven trips (over a 10 year span) to the playoffs in the process.

I am, of course, referring to Marty Schottenheimer. As the next GM of the Kansas City Chiefs, what now ensues are my thoughts as to “What Would Marty Do?”

Now I do not profess to know every last facet about what a GM does but I think I know at least a thing or  two about what the job entails and obsessing over a candy wrapper on the floor just ain’t at the top of that list. No, in terms of building a team, a GM must have a clear vision of what he wants the identity of his team to be, and then finds the people whom he believes will fulfill that vision. The process begins by aligning himself with the right head coach.

So let’s first take just a moment to discuss whether or not Marty Schottenheimer is any good at identifying coaching talent, supporting his coaches, and mentoring them into winners. I think the best way to answer that question is to simply look at his coaching tree. In other words, who are the coaches that have worked under him or are the products of his coaching philosophy?  The short list on that includes the likes of Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin, Tony Dungy, Lovie Smith, Mike McCarthy, Ken Whisenhunt, Cam Cameron, and Chan Gailey to name just a few.

In a nutshell, I have zero concerns about Marty Schottenheimer’s ability to target, acquire and support an effective head coach who he feels has the skills and ability to fulfill his vision and follow his blueprint for creating a successful team. I would go even further to say that Schottenheimer’s experience and influence would likely yield positive results with the development and success of the entire coaching staff.

After teaming himself up with a head coach, together they would roll up their sleeves and undertake the task of putting the remaining staff pieces in place, contemplate which existing players fit the vision, who they might acquire through FA and of course scouting the college ranks. Now a frequently heard knock on Schottenheimer is that he always struggled with getting and/or developing a franchise quarterback. Frankly, I don’t know how much of that knock really ought to be put on Carl Peterson and how much is attributable to Marty, but I do know that one of many personnel run ins that Marty had with AJ Smith out in San Diego was over the decision to let Drew Brees go in favor of Phillip Rivers. That little dust up right there tells me that Marty Schottenheimer might know a thing or two about what goes into being an elite NFL QB.

While we’re on the subject of fielding a franchise quarterback, I don’t think anyone can just assumne that Marty was the problem in KC while he was here. Chiefs’ general management owned a sorry history on that front before Marty arrived in KC and has continued on so since his departure. Is it entirely unreasonable to think that the chronic failure on that account is perhaps more systemic and less coach centric? Let’s also keep in mind that Marty Schottenheimer, as GM, other than in a consulting role, would probably have little to do with developing any individual player as that responsibility would fall mainly upon his head coach and offensive coaching staff. Again, remember, as GM, it would be Marty’s responsibility to support the coaching staff, not do their jobs for them.

If there’s absolutely one thing one must admire about Marty Schottenheimer as a coach, it was his ability to motivate his teams to play nasty, tough football, and just really out of their collective minds. As a GM, it’s hard to imagine that he would not continue to heavily influence that same culture, something the Chiefs have sorely lacked since his departure. It matters not whether he accomplishes that by infecting his coaches with such mentality, or by personally breathing fire into the locker room, it’s a thing that Chiefs football currently lacks and will not thrive without.  Among its many flaws, the Pioli version of Chiefs football lacks fire and one just cannot discount Marty’s Schottenheimer’s charisma nor his ability to inspire hard work and heroic performances out of all who fall under his command.

As to whether or not Marty would be effective in negotiating player contracts, I can’t really say for certain but I do feel that his experience as a former player ought to be of value towards that end.  I also feel that it is in within his skill set to coax some “home town discounts” out of his better players should the need arise. As to the latter, that sort of thing was not uncommon while he was coach and I am pretty sure his involvement in the process had a little to do with such outcomes. In other words, there is no reason to believe that Marty would not be able to maintain and build around his core players and there are good reasons to think he actually would.

In terms of connecting with the fans and media, Marty has always made himself accessible in that regard. As I said before, Marty is not afraid to speak his mind and I would even say he has a certain knack for communicating in a manner that exudes self-confidence but without exhibiting condescension or disrespect. Schottenheimer, just like any GM, is bound to have his detractors but it is highly unlikely he will ever show up to a press conference appearing defensive, unarmed, or otherwise ill-prepared to respond to whatever question comes his way.

Lastly, we must address the biggest knock on Marty, that being his post season track record as a head coach.  About that, I have several thoughts. The thing that first and foremost comes to mind is the fact that, as the GM, and as I hinted at earlier, Marty Schottenheimer would not be on the sideline calling any plays. Secondly, there’s probably nobody in the entire NFL with more motivation to win a championship and cement his legacy. Within the division itself, there is little doubt Marty Schottenheimer would like nothing better than to upstage and redeem himself against the likes of AJ Smith and John Elway. His focus on Raiders week is legendary.

Now I will freely admit that my thinking on this matter is still in its infancy and likely needs some additional reflection and fine tuning. Still, I also feel that the fundamental skills, character traits, intimate familiarity with Kansas City and its football team, and his overall experience all point to making this a sensible reality and that if and when it is, the outcome of such sea change will be quite positive.

Time to share your thoughts Addicts. Is it still too early in the season to start thinking along these lines or have you reached your boiling point, seen enough, and ready to blow this up? If you don’t believe Marty is up to the job of GM, who would you rather see and why? If Clark Hunt pulls the plug on Pioli, who would you have his new GM bring in as a head coach?

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Well, Chiefs fans, for those of you who read my article last week, you should’ve walked away knowing a little bit more about salary cap management. You may or may not have jumped to my rallying cry to show the player and team some love, and let the NFL world know that when they go up against the Chiefs they’re not just going up against the players and coaches, they’re going up against every Chiefs fan that bleeds red and gold.

Whether you did or not certainly depends on the individual. Some of you may be too disgusted by Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli’s management of your beloved Chiefs to look past your perception of them and root for the players. After all, Hunt and Pioli are cheapskates (to use the nicer term), right?

Well, according to Spotrac.com, it appears that, of the 32 NFL teams, the Kansas City Chiefs are spending the most cap dollars of any team on active player contracts in 2012.

I’ll wait for you to seek medical attention for your broken jaw; mine slammed pretty hard off of my desk, too…

That was not a misprint: the Kansas City Chiefs, owned by Clark Hunt and family, managed by Scott Pioli, appear to be paying the most of any team on active player contracts this season. Take a look for yourself:

Now, I want to be clear. Spending “the most cap dollars… on active player contracts” does not necessarily mean that the Kansas City Chiefs are using/accounting-for the most cap dollars overall, it means that they’re paying the most cap money towards players currently on the team.

What does that mean?

Though most news outlets will report cap space availability for teams, this is a new day and age, and comes with it a new CBA, wherein available cap space money can be rolled into the next year without the need for teams to exploit loopholes*. This will affect how much cap dollars a team can spend on its players in a given season. This can really alter each team’s cap room which, in turn, will make cap space availability numbers a little less useful without context.

*It used to be that NLTBEs were accounted into the cap during the season they were set, and were the only cap dollars that could be rolled over, provided the player the NLTBE was assigned to didn’t earn it. So to rollover remaining cap monies, teams could make a ridiculous NLTBE late in the season that had no way of happening, say setting an NLTBE in Week 15 that would have your 3^rd string QB receiving all remaining cap dollars if he could throw 10 TDs by the end of the season. He, of course, wouldn’t, but since the NLTBE was accounted for, but not met, the money could be rolled over into the next season. The new CBA made adjustments to this by just letting teams rollover cap dollars without the need for trickery, and having NLTBEs count against the next season’s cap should they be met.

Ex: Let’s say Team A rolls over $1 million from last year’s season into this year’s season, and Team B rolls over $20 million. If after spending, both teams find themselves with a cap availability of $1 million, it won’t be because both teams spent the same amount of money. Rather, Team B would’ve spent more money as it spent both the league defined cap, plus $19 million of the $20 million it rolled over; whereas Team A would’ve only spent the league defined cap, and just didn’t touch its rollover.

But even that is only a portion of how people can confuse salary cap availability with money spent by the club on its active players’ contracts. In the NFL’s salary accounting policies and procedures, there is a certain thing that negatively impacts a team’s salary cap, that doesn’t seem to get a lot of media attention: dead money.

What is dead money? (you ask because you don’t use contractions)

Dead money is generated when a player leaves a team (usually by being cut, but sometimes through retirement or a trade*) and certain parts of their contracts were either guaranteed or solely within the club’s responsibility to pay (e.g. signing bonus). It gets its name because, even though the player is no longer with the team, and therefore doing the team no good, the money must be absorbed and paid for by the club, and it does cause a cap hit. So any dead money that exists keeps a club from spending that much more money on players who are (or can be) signed to the 53-man roster.

*For those left wondering, whether you thought to ask yourself or not, players willfully leaving, or willfully being allowed to leave,  via FA don’t generate dead money, as their contract would’ve been fully satisfied, and there’d be no money left unpaid for a team to absorb.

Ex: Team A and Team B each have a salary cap of $100 million (for the purposes of this example there were no rollovers). Team A has dead money to the tune of $10 million. Team B has dead money to the tune of $2 million. After spending the money on this year’s team, it’s reported that Team A has $1 million in cap availability and Team B has $5 million in camp availability. At face value, and since availability gets reported much more heavily than dead money figures, it appears that Team A is spending more money on their current team than Team B. This is an incorrect assumption. After deducting each team’s dead money from their initial cap, Team A had $90 million to spend for the year, and Team B had $98 million. So though Team A appears on the surface to have spent more money on current player contracts (what with $1 million left compared to Team B’s $5 million left) doing the math shows that Team A has actually only spent $89 million on this year’s roster [$100 million (cap) - $10 million (dead money) - $1 million (available money)]; whereas Team B has actually spent the greater sum having devoted $93 million cap dollars on this year’s roster [$100 million - $2 million - $5 million].

Let’s take a look at each team’s dead money figures:

It should be noted that $460,000-520,000 in dead money is pretty well par for the course for any team in a given year, just due to cuts to fringe players. Here you’ll see the Chiefs have the 7^th least amount of dead money affecting this season’s cap with $2,117,187. Interestingly enough, Demorrio Williams accounts for $1.6 million of this figure, with the remaining $517,187 being spread between 7 different (former) players with Gabe Miller accounting for the second highest figure ($148,875) and Brandon Bair, the least ($4,666).

Another pitfall in using cap availability in judging how much a team is spending on its players’ contracts is, as I touched on last week, that LTBE goals will, for accounting purposes, appear as cap hits on the current season’s salary cap, but whether or not players will earn this/these goal(s) is, of course, not a guarantee until it happens.

So to a common observer who a) doesn’t consider how rollovers affect the cap, b) doesn’t consider dead money and c) doesn’t consider how things such as LTBEs must be taken into account, it’s a quick and easy jump to assume that the more cap space a team has available, the less money that team is spending on its current team. This is the Kansas City Chiefs’ current plight. Fans see that $14.5 million in cap space is remaining, the third most in the league, and assume that Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli are cheap bastards (to use the less nice term). Many Chiefs fans are furious that they’re not spending more. However, as stated at the beginning, of all 32 teams, the Kansas City Chiefs appear to be spending the most cap money this season towards active player contracts.

But how can that be? Wasn’t it just reported back in February that the Chiefs had $63 million in cap space remaining?

At the time that that report was released a few things were taken into account that increased that figure, while several things were not taken into account that would lower that number. Basically, the reported figure was artificially larger than it actually was.

Namely, the $63 million figure included the $24 million (approx.) that the Chiefs rolled over from last season*, but it did not include contract escalators (which, by the way, tend to be non-negotiable devices built into contracts) which amounted to approximately $18 million. Nor did this figure include the money the team was required to pay out to players for NLTBEs offered to them and achieved during the 2011 season and estimated to be about $5 million. Nor did it include money for RFA Tenders (which really wound up just being Jovan Belcher’s for $1.9 million).

*The Chiefs announced through their official team site that they were rolling over $20 million; however sites such as NFL.com, ESPN & Spotrac reported the rollover as approximately $24 million. Given these sites reputability and independence from the organization, we’ll assume the higher number

After deducting the values that were not deducted prior to the report’s release, the Chiefs’ so-called available funds dip to about $38 million (a much more believable figure). Now deduct for Routt’s signing, Dwayne Bowe’s franchise tag and Jovan Belcher’s RFA Tender and we’re down to about $22 million, which is what was reported just before free agency.

Now deduct for the signings of Winston, Boss, Hillis, Quinn, and the rookie class, deduct for the re-signing of Travis Daniels, add money that was freed up through the restructuring of Tyson Jackson’s contract, deduct for Abram Elam and Edgar Jones, and we’re down to $16.5 million. As suggested in last week’s article, it is likely that the $2 million differential between this $16.5 million and the current $14.5 million is due to LTBEs being set for this season.

Okay, so now I see how they went from $63 million to $14.5 million, but if how much the Chiefs are paying on active player contracts is correct, it only appears to be about $8 million over the league defined cap… Pioli just did an interview a week or so ago where he said the Chiefs were spending about $20 million cash over the cap this season.

You are correct in your observation that the contracts amount to about $8 million over the league’s defined base cap. That being said, Scott Pioli is correct that the team is spending about $20 million cash over this same cap.

Alright, now you’re just $*%#@!# with me.

There is a difference between how much cap dollars a team spends in a given season, and how much “committed cash” it spends in a given season. While some things, such as base salary, workout bonuses, roster bonuses, etc., count equally towards both cap dollars and committed cash [Ex: $1 million base salary accounts for $1 million towards the cap and $1 million towards the cash], other things, such as signing bonuses and option bonuses, are accounted for differently.

Ex: Eric Winston signed a 4 year deal that comes with an $8.4 million signing bonus. The entirety of this signing bonus was given to him right away; however, it’s prorated over the course of the 4 year deal so that it hits the cap equally each contract year. So this particular deal is hitting the cap by $2.1 million this year, but hits the committed cash by $8.4 million this year.

Obviously, Winston’s contract isn’t the only contract lending to the difference in cap dollars and committed cash, but at least you can see how the difference comes about.

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So, are Pioli and Hunt cheap bastards? Looking at cap availability alone one would think “yes”; however, everything else seems to indicate otherwise. When the Chiefs announced the rollover of last year’s cap space into this season, Clark Hunt stated that the rollover money would be put to use in continuing to re-sign the Chiefs free agents, as well as to go out and sign some free agents from other teams.

The FO lived up to Clark’s word.

Beginning the 2011 season, the Chiefs had 27 players set to hit FA this past offseason. By controlling the player budget enough that Pioli had some idea of how much money could be rolled over, he was able to re-sign Hali and Flowers to extensions early on in the season, and re-signed Succop to an extension in December (and look how huge that turned out being this past weekend). The team also brought back Brandon Siler, Cory Greenwood, Jake O’Connell, Travis Daniels and Amon Gordon (with only Gordon not working out… by the way, no dead money was generated by Gordon’s short-lived contract). Bowe received the Franchise Tag and Jovan Belcher an RFA Tender which, though not as good as extensions, were at least enough to assure their return to the team (and had some other team picked up Bowe at the cost of 2- 1^st Round Picks, or Belcher for the cost of 1- 2^nd Round Pick, something tells me us fans could’ve lived with it). Of the 17 players that hit FA but were not retained, Carr and Orton are likely the only two to complain about. Six were contemplating retirement, four were just terrible, one couldn’t stay healthy with the Chiefs, and four were still perceived as desirable enough to be picked up. The Chiefs, in turn, picked up Routt, Winston, Boss, Hillis, Quinn, Abram Elam, and Edgar Jones as far as players on roster and hitting the cap go. They also picked up Kyle McCarthy, Martin Rucker and Jacques Reeves who all find themselves on IR and don’t count against the cap.

That’s a pretty good offseason. To be where they’re currently at cap-wise, but to have retained Carr, likely would’ve meant no Routt, no Boss and no Winston. To use more of the cap than is currently available (say by re-signing Carr but still signing Routt, Boss & Winston) means making a tougher time of re-signing the Chiefs pick of next seasons 17 scheduled free agents, and not having much money available to take advantage of other teams’ cap casualty cuts (i.e. next year’s Routts, Boss’s & Winstons).

Some of you might not like to hear it, or even want to accept it (even after all the work I just put in showing how they’re spending money and spending it wisely), but it appears the money isn’t being pocketed, and the current regime isn’t likely to end anytime soon. In fact, it looks like things are getting in order (non-Pioli-negotiated contracts are on the way out) and Pioli & Co. are just hitting their stride. But it should be a positive to know that Clark Hunt does care about the team’s success more than he cares about pocketing the money. Now if only the coaches and players can maximize their talents and do it on a consistent basis, we might just have ourselves a team worthy of championships…

Well, Addicts, if nothing else you’ve come away from this knowing more about your favorite NFL team. Maybe you’ve already given up too much hope to reverse the lynch mob, but the management seems to be giving all they can to the team and the fans; looks like it’s time for the team and the fans to reciprocate. While the team leaves it all out on the field on Sunday, why don’t we be there to back their efforts, and give Philip “Cry Me A” River(s) another miserable Arrowhead experience. GO CHIEFS!!!

We’ll begin this week’s edition of Pressure Points by pointing out that the Chargers, up until being manhandled by the Falcons, were (statistically speaking) regarded by Football Outsiders as among the league’s most the solid, well-rounded teams. As of week 2, FO had them as the 10th most efficient overall, 11th most efficient on offense, 12th most efficient on defense, and 12th most efficient on special teams.  As a result of their performance last Sunday, the Chargers now rank 22nd in overall efficiency, 21st on offense, 20th on defense, and 10th at special teams. I have little doubt that the Chargers are unhappy with how they played against the Falcons and will be seeking to rebound and re-establish themselves as a well-rounded, quality team this Sunday.

Because the overall focus of these articles is to draw attention to potential soft spots of our upcoming opponents, let’s also take a moment to consider the Chargers 2-1 record and how they arrived there. More specifically, how strong was the Chargers start of the season? Well, if you consider the strengths/weaknesses of their first two opponents, I suppose one might reasonably question how much they actually accomplished by beating the Raiders and the Titans. As of week 2, Football Outsiders ranked Tennessee 31st on offense, 28th on defense, and 13th on special teams. The Raiders, as of week 2, were 15th on offense, 25th on defense, and 32nd on special teams.

Now before you jump to the conclusion that the Chargers’ first two wins are entirely attributable to the fact that they faced weak teams only to be exposed in week 3 by what appears to be a very strong team, let’s not overlook the 800 lb gorilla in the room. In spite of a feel-good, rallying win over an 0-3 Saints team, Football Outsiders nevertheless ranks the Chiefs 32nd in overall efficiency, 24th in offensive efficiency, 30th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in special teams efficiency. In other words, as things currently stand, the Chiefs appear to be exactly the kind of team that the Chargers have enjoyed success against. To put it bluntly, in almost every aspect of their game, the Chiefs must either improve immediately or face a season of disappointment, humiliation, well deserved criticism and dashed expectations.

Capiche?

With all that out of way, we’ll begin this by focusing on Phillip Rivers. Three games into the season, FO ranks Rivers 20th in both DYAR and DVOA. Rivers QBR is the 15th best in the league. His TD/INT ratio is 4/3, he owns a  67% completion rate and he’s so far thrown 109 passes for 664 yards.

In this instance, I feel it helps to add a little perspective. As of right now, Matt Cassel is 25th in both DYAR and DVOA, and 16th in QBR. Cassel’s TD/INT ratio is 3/3. He has a 60% completion rate and has thrown 128 passes for 738 yards.

Put simply, 3 weeks in, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest that Rivers is putting up somewhat pedestrian numbers and perhaps the Chiefs ought to consider his presence as something  manageable… as long as they step up and do their jobs that is. As we’ve seen in past years, the best way to manage Phillips is to harass him because that’s when he’s most likely to start making mistakes. Whether the Chiefs are up to that task remains to be seen.

Examining the Chargers’ Offensive Line stats, we see that they currently rank 13th most efficient in pass protection; so, if past performance is any indicator, hassling Rivers won’t be particularly easy. As far as the run game goes, the Chargers, while 20th overall, are the 25th at the 2nd level (5 – 10 yards). They do however rank highly in short yardage situations, so keeping them 3rd and long as much as possible should probably be a key objective for the Chiefs. As far as lanes and gaps are concerned, the Chargers have been very effective (6th best) when they run between the guards but, everywhere else, they rank in the bottom half of the league.

Definitely also worth noting here is that the Chargers starting left tackle is a rookie free agent, Michael Harris, who’s filling in for Jared Gaither, who missed nearly all of training camp and the first three games due to a lingering back problem. He did, however, suit up for practice this week so whether or not he is ready to go for Sunday remains to be seen. I’m guessing Gaither will not be 100% and most likely not starting if he suits up.

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers are below average in a number of areas based on Football Outsiders’ stats. They are 20th against the pass. Their defensive line ranks 27th in beating pass protection. They rank 29th against #1WRs, 24th against passes to RBs, and 18th against “other (e.g., slot) WRs.” If Cassel can be protected and is accurate, there may be opportunities to find success with the likes of Bowe, McCluster, Charles and perhaps even Copper in the passing game.

While 5th overall in defensing the run, the Chargers nevertheless appear to have some exposure against the run. For example, they rank 32nd against power running and are 20th in stuffs. Their weakest spots on the line appear to be the B gaps, where they are 27th on the left side and 21st on the right. Interesting enough, it also appears that their apparent vulnerability on the left side has not been well tested by opposing offenses. The league average attempts to the left B gap is 14% of carries while the Chargers have so far only dealt with their opponents targetting that gap at a 10% rate.

To summarize, on offense, the Chargers main vulnerabilities appear to be: 1) a quarterback with a tendency to make mistakes when pressured, 2) running outside the guards, 3) getting to the second level, and 4) left tackle. On defense, the Chargers appear to be vulnerable against 1) #1 WRs, 2) passes to RBs and “other WRs, ” and 3) runs that target the B gaps, particularly the left B gap.

Those are the Chargers’ pressure points. Addicts, let’s hear your thoughts on what the Chiefs need to do to beat the Chargers.

This upcoming Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs head down to New Orleans to give the Saints a time of it. Given that the Saints have been in the national limelight for years (for both good and bad reasons), and that I haven’t been the only staff writer inspecting the upcoming opponent, I’ve decided to take a hiatus on Know Your Enemy this week and address another issue.

It has come to my attention that there are Chiefs fans out there complaining about the Chiefs cap. I don’t see a problem with it. I mean, scroll up and take a look at that bad boy.

Isn’t it great?

What human being could resist the urge to pounce on the debonair gentleman or courtly lady enlightened enough to don this sexy piece of Chiefs apparel? The wearer instantaneously lets others know that they’re not only intelligent, loyal and a humanitarian, but also that they have a keen fashion sense, all by sporting such an adornment on their crown. Heck, it might as well be a crown.

As for the complaints about cap room, unless your Mr. Moneybags and got a fitted cap, there should be a strap in the back you can adjust to tighten it up… Hold on a sec…

They meant salary cap?…

Are you sure???

Okayyyy. Luckily I know a thing or two about how that works.

Following the Falcons Week 1 aerial assault against the Chiefs’ lacking defense, it was clear to all that Kansas City’s CB depth, or lack thereof, should be an area of great concern (and after Sunday’s whomping by the Bills that concern probably extends to the entire defense). This observation was shortly followed by the announcement that the Chiefs still have $14.5 million in available salary cap space (misconstrued by some as being as high as $30 million). An ugly incident occurred through Twitter and Reddit, and even parties not directly involved in this exchange took to the Web to express their own displeasure over KC’s secondary issues and why it shouldn’t exist given the Chiefs’ available cap room; the common consensus being that Clark Hunt (and family) and Scott Pioli must be cheap bastards.

I can’t deny the Chiefs’ secondary concerns, and even wrote about this concern myself during the preseason. But I’m not sold on the salary cap being what it is as a matter of cheapness. No, I’m much more inclined to believe that the cap will be spent on players, just a little bit down the road and in such a way that the cap room currently looks deceptively large. I’ve already pondered that Pioli and the FO may want to roll the available cap into next season to help retain players such as Bowe, Albert and/or Dorsey and/or have cap space remaining to sign some bigger names entering free agency.

But another option exists. One that would pay the Chiefs’ current players more, but only if they can produce on the field. That option is the incentive bonus.

But isn’t that accounted for in the salary cap?

Glad you asked. There are two types of incentive bonuses: those Likely To Be Earned (LTBE), and those Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE). Only LTBEs are accounted for in the salary cap during the season they are expected to be earned. NLTBEs being what they are, not likely to be achieved, are not deducted from the cap in the season they are earned, but rather from the following season’s salary cap. This is where it might pay the Chiefs organization to carry extra money into the 2013 season.

Why take that precaution if the goals are not likely to be earned?

While the goals that are set are determined by the team, the nomenclature of whether such goal is likely or not likely to be earned is determined by league definition. Simplistically, an LTBE goal is one that was attained during the previous season and is therefore expected to be duplicated, whereas an NLTBE goal is a higher goal than was achieved in the previous season and is not considered to be expected to be met. Example: Dwayne Bowe had 5 TDs during the 2011 season. An LTBE goal for him this season would be to get 3 TDs; whereas an NLTBE goal would be 8 TDs (even though Bowe exceeded this goal in 2010).

So what happens if an LTBE goal or an NLTBE goal isn’t met?

If an LTBE goal isn’t met by season’s end, the money that was earmarked for that player/unit is released into the available cap space and may be rolled over into the next season. If an NLTBE goal isn’t met, it just doesn’t have an impact on the current, or next, season’s salary cap.

What kind of goals may these be?

The CBA identifies three categories of incentive goals: (1) Team Incentives, (2) Individual Incentives & (3) Honors and Recognized Media Incentives. Team Incentives and Individual Incentives can be made in most every major statistical category you can think of. Honors and Recognized Media Incentives pertain to the larger honors (Pro Bowl Selection, All-Pro Selection, etc.).

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On September 7^th, Pro Football Talk reported that the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million in available cap space. The latest report prior to this indicated that the Chiefs had approx. $16.5 million in available cap space. No player additions that would’ve affected the team’s accounting were made in the interim, so the safe bet is that the approx. $2 million differential comes from the making of LTBE goal(s). It should be noted that “win the division” is always considered, by definition, to be an LTBE, and it’s likely that such a goal accounts for some of this differential.

What isn’t known is how much of the remaining cap space is earmarked for the potential earning of NTLBEs. Again, the team’s or player’s performance from the previous season determines whether a goal is likely or not likely, and we can all agree that the 2011 season was disappointing. It wouldn’t take setting goals too high for them to be considered Not Likely To Be Earned. But such goals could include finishing with a winning record, making a deep playoff run, etc.

These are things that both the Chiefs organization as well as its fans want, and are within the potential of the team to earn. But paying the money upfront does not guarantee the player/unit/team will fulfill their potential. In fact, by setting things up so that the players only receive the money by earning it makes perfect sense. If the players earn the money, then great, it’ll mean the team has succeeded to a desirable level, the players will get the money they deserve, and, thanks to the cap management, the money can be paid out without putting the team in a compromising position that would require “cap casualty cuts” next season. If the players don’t produce, that’ll suck, but at least significant rollover cap funds will be available next season to help pull in free agents that may stand a greater chance of helping this team get to where it wants to be.

I know not having Brandon Carr sucks, especially considering the defensive failures of the first two games. But you know what else sucks? Cutting valuable players because you played fast and loose with your cap, and paying players a lot more than they’ll ever earn for the same reason.

More is going on behind the scene than meets the eye. For as much as Pioli gets demonized for this, that and the other thing, I’m not convinced that he’s deserving of such scorn. The way some people would spin it, every letdown the Chiefs experience, collectively or individually, is squarely on Pioli’s shoulders. But one person can’t control the actions of others. Limit their actions, maybe, but not control them. The coaches are not currently living up to their potential. Same with the players. Oh, they have shown at points in the past that they can perform much better than they have been; they just haven’t gotten a handle on it this season thus far. I’m not going to blame Pioli for these individuals’ failures. Their failures belong to them.

Now, I don’t profess to know what exactly is causing these failures. But I do know that I still love the Chiefs. And like with any loved one that makes a mistake, I’m not gonna go into a rage, verbally berate them and tell them to do better or else. I have been appalled at the amount of people that so quickly jumped to that reaction. Such actions have a way of demoralizing any person, and a lack of morale is the last thing this team needs right now. No, I’m gonna support my beloved Chiefs and encourage them to start performing at the level I know they’re capable of, and I appeal to all of you to do the same. A while back, one commenter made the statement that the home crowd shouldn’t make a difference in how well a team performs, and if that’s the case, why is homefield advantage such a huge deal come playoff time? I’ll tell you why: it’s because fan support does matter, it matters a lot more than you might think.

The sky doesn’t have to fall, but the less support there is, the more likely that baby will come crashing down. It took a flurry of Twitter messages conveying fan loyalty to the Chiefs, and respect for his individual abilities, to convince Eric Winston to come to a smaller market in Kansas City, even though he likely could’ve landed a big contract at a dozen other places. I’m curious as to how much drive and motivation could be stirred up in exploding your current Chiefs players’ Twitter accounts with positive, morale-boosting messages. We’re looking for someone to light a spark; what if we could be that spark? Idle support begets idle response. Chiefs fans were once undeniably the best fans in football, let’s embrace that legacy and kick it up a notch. Let the boys hear some noise! Let ‘em know that we not only want to see them kick some ass in New Orleans, but that it’s time to put the women and children to bed and go looking for @#$%#$% dinner… GO CHIEFS!!!!

The business goal of Goldman Sachs is to be successful at making money both for its clients and for itself. If, like Goldman Sachs, making money is the primary standard by which Clark Hunt measures success and worth, then I guess I must admit that his leadership style is certainly effective toward that end. What Clark Hunt may not do is stand shoulder-to-shoulder with other NFL owners, look them in the eye with pride and confidence on the grounds that he also oversees a successful football organization, from top to bottom.

Perhaps it is because Clark Hunt was born into so much money that he knows no other definition for success other than maximizing the accumulation of it. If not attributable to his privileged upbringing, then perhaps it is simply because Mr. Hunt is a true believer of the Goldman Sachs way, perhaps willfully blind to any other. Whatever the case, when it comes to being a winner on Sunday afternoons, Clark Hunt has yet to demonstrate competence at instilling a culture that adheres to what is sometimes called the warrior way. By that, I mean an organizational commitment to technical mastery, loyalty, and honor unto death.

A culture that emphasizes secrecy and surveillance is, by definition, an insecure organization. Insecurity implies distrust. Distrust breeds fear and resentment. The legacy of fear and resentment is disloyalty.

There was once a time when secrecy was not essential to Chiefs football. There once was a time when everyone in the world knew exactly what the Chiefs were planning to do on the very next play. There once was a time when any and all such foreknowledge could not prevent the Chiefs from doing exactly what they intended. That time, that mastery, that loyalty, such honor, is no more.

Scott Pioli, for his part (if reports are to be believed), seems to care about finding candy wrappers just as much as he cares about finding “the right 53.” Again, if reports are to be believed, the type of loyalty that Pioli commands to himself seems to be hewn as much from fear of retaliation as it is from the respect and belief that his approach will result in team success on Sundays.  Truthfully, can it be said that Scott Pioli cultivates technical mastery, loyalty, and honor into this team? If so, where lies the proof?

Romeo Crennel, the “players’” coach, with his victory over the undefeated Packers last season, was a great story for a minute.  The team that he fielded that day was one which appeared to exemplify appreciation for and loyalty to his, shall we say, less emotional approach to coaching. In the players’ minds, Crennel had once been in their shoes, understood what they were going through, and so they relate to him at that level.

It seems increasingly clear now that Crennel’s approach to coaching, while perhaps long on loyalty, seems to be failing miserably in its emphasis on technical mastery and from all appearances, is woefully devoid of “honor unto death.”  Yes, Romeo loves his players and they love him back, but where does the love end, and the toughness begin? Where is the honor in constant  humiliation?

Put simply, Crennel is failing to get his players to execute at the level of which they are capable and more broadly, failing to motivate them. With the harsh days of Haley now past, Crennel has gone the other direction, perhaps more comfortable with the thought of being liked by his team, than pushing the right buttons without regard to whether the players like him or not.

As for the players themselves, the Chiefs field one of the most talented collection of players in the league. For example, when surrounded by the right pieces, Matt Cassel, while perhaps not an “elite” quarterback, has at least demonstrated that he can lead a team to at least 10 or 11 regular season wins. On paper, there is not a backfield in the league that is better than what the Chiefs currently possess.

The Chiefs also lay claim to two first-round wide receivers, a first-round veteran left tackle, and a highly rated right tackle.  Second-round pick Dexter McCluster shows flashes of being a dynamic slot receiver. When effectively used, Steve Breaston can move the chains and occasionally get you chunks of yards. Our two leading tight ends can both catch, block, and get YAC. The Chiefs offense is long on talent and yet lacking in intensity.

The Chiefs defense, same story. They boast six first-round picks, five of whom line up as part of the front seven. Their three best cornerbacks are all second-round picks. Like the offense, they are loaded with talent yet again, lacking in intensity.  When a veteran defenseman plays out of position, that is not a talent issue, that is mental softness issue, a lack of commitment to technical mastery.

On both sides of the line, the Chiefs are being dominated. Crushed. They, like the rest of the team, do not inflict any pain, they are its flaccid victims.

A rally win in New Orleans will not right this ship. Playing the Indian War Chant over the loudspeakers of Arrowhead does not make this a team of warriors. What is required of this organization is a behavioral revolution, one that embraces and embodies the warrior spirit.

After flopping badly in their debut performance, the Kansas City Chiefs proceed to take this show on the road. First whistle stop, upstate New York.

I’ll begin this with some generalizations about the Buffalo Bills, and then get into some of the finer details. Like the Chiefs, the 2011 Bills suffered some key injuries that in large part helped derail what looked to be an otherwise promising season. After a strong start and talk of playoff contention, the Bills literally fell apart on the back nine, going 1-8 down the stretch. The 2011 IR casualties included star running back Fred Jackson, NT Kyle Williams, C Erik Wood, NT Terrell Troup, WR Marcus Easley, slot WR Roscoe Parrish, and pass rushing specialist Shawne Merriman. Reportedly Ryan Fitzpatrick also played out the season with a couple of bad ribs after Week 8, the point after which they went 1-8.

Another generalization about the Bills is that they are led by what is widely considered an average QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick. With the right pieces around him, Fitzpatrick can be an efficient game manager. However the popular opinion is that he is not the kind of QB who can typically put his team on his back and win.  Come to think of it, one might reasonably compare Fitz to . . . nah, too easy.

The Bills ranked 19th in passing offense efficiency for 2011 according to Football Outsiders. Aside from Fitz’ pedestrian skills as a signal caller, the Bills were also pretty limited in receiver talent and depth. As far as running the ball goes, the Bills were 2011′s 8th most efficient rushing offense, again referencing Football Outsiders’ “Defense-adjusted Value Over Average” statistical assessment.

Breaking down the Bills 2011 offense even further, we discover that Football Outsiders ranked their offensive line in the top half of the league in most categories. To wit, they ranked 12th most efficient in overall run blocking and tops overall in pass protection.  In the run game, the Bills OL were seventh best at power running, 14th best at avoiding stuffs, ninth best for second level runs, and second best in open field blocking. Along the lanes and gaps, they came in 10th, 20th, 11th, 30th, and second for runs outside the LE, inside LT, M/G, and RT, and outside RE respectively.

Now for the Bills’ offensive pressure points.

Looking at the offensive skill positions, the Bills feature CJ Spiller in the backfield, Stevie Johnson at WR, and TE Scott Chandler. Beyond those three, there does not appear to be much in the cupboard. Unfortunately for the Bills when they face the Chiefs, they will be lacking the services of their best offensive weapon, RB Fred Jackson, who is out with a right knee injury. Jackson is expected to miss the first 3 weeks of the season.

If things weren’t already bad enough, #2 WR David Nelson is on IR after tearing his ACL in the game against the Jets; #1 WR Johnson, hampered by a lingering groin injury, is listed as probable against the Chiefs.

Three words come to mind in characterizing the current state of the Bills’ offensive firepower: Thin, thin, and thin. Short translation, to make this thing go, it will largely be upon Ryan Fitzpatrick to transform himself from a game manager into a field general. That, in turn, begs the question, does Fitz have enough other pieces around him to facilitate said transformation?

The situation in the trenches can be sized up as follows  – extremely solid on the interior but a little suspect at the edges. For example, at left tackle, formerly manned by Demetress Bell, is now the job of rookie Cordy Glenn while the right tackle spot continues to be occupied by veteran Erik Pears. It seems also worth noting that in spite of the fact that Fitzpatrick apparently enjoyed the best pass protection in the league last season, the Bills could only muster a 19th ranking in passing efficiency. That seems to suggest either an indictment of Fitz’ skills as a passer or a lack of quality receivers. Maybe both?

Verdict on the OL - Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blind side protection will and should be tested often this season. Going back to an earlier point, the Bills struggled on runs through the right B gap. That perhaps suggests that Pears, while effective at sealing off the end, and protecting against edge rushers, is nevertheless susceptible to getting overwhelmed with activity that goes inside, to his left. In other words, that right B gap seems like it might be a soft spot for, say, DJ or a safety blitz to make a sack or TFL.

Now for the defensive side of the ball. In 2011, the Bills struggled in just about every facet of defense. Football Outsiders ranked them 28th in efficiency defensing the run and 25th in pass rushing efficiency. Matchups with specific receivers had them 22nd against #1 WRs, 29th against #2 WRs, 1st against “other WRs,” 22nd against TEs, and 20th against RBs.

Much of the 2011 Bills’ struggles in defensing  the pass can be attributed their lack of a pass rush. The Bills clearly recognized this flaw during the offseason, got serious about it, and acquired two DEs in free agency, Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.  One would expect that the Williams acquisition alone should pay immediate dividends in this department.

Football Outsiders ranked 2011 Bills DL 28th overall against the run. At the granular level, they were 14th in efficiency against power running, 32nd in stuffs, 21st in defending at the 2nd level, and 24th against open field rushing.

The return of NT Kyle Williams ought to also be a big boost to the Bills defense, both in stopping the run, and in helping to facilitate a better pass rush. DT Marcell Dareus will be in his second year and can be expected to elevate his game as well. Generally speaking, 2012 should see a much improved defensive line for the Bills.

Other than WLB Kevin Barnett, the Bills the linebacking corps appears to be kind of a work in progress, with SLB Arthur Moats in his 3rd year, and MLB Kelvin Sheppard in his second year.

It is difficult to fairly assess the Bills secondary in light of the defense’s general inability to get the passer last season, but they should, at the very worst, be considered at least average (but also inexperienced, yet possibly improving).  For instance, I would consider Jairus Byrd as among the better safeties in the league. Byrd’s counterpart, George Wilson, on the other hand, seems to me to be a bit suspect.

To shore themselves up at corner, the Bills used their first draft pick on Stephon Gilmore, who has been given a starting role (also noting here that he got roundly schooled by the Jets last Sunday). Playing opposite Gilmore is second-year man Aaron Williams. Like I said, inexperienced but presumably improving. What the Bills do possess in their secondary is quality veteran depth in the likes of Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee.

It will be particularly interesting to see to what extent the Bills’ offseason acquisitions — pass rushers Williams and Anderson, along with the return of Kyle Williams — improve this unit over what we saw last season.

Lastly, the Bills ranked 24th in special teams efficiency.

To recap their weaknesses, I tend to view the Bills offense as somewhat lacking in necessary QB skills, thin with firepower, and very suspect at the left tackle position. On defense, the Bills corners are inexperienced but have good depth behind them, they are suspect at SS, their LBs are for the most part young but improving, and their defensive line is stout (on paper at least). What remains to be seen is whether the Bills combination of youthful talent among their backers and secondary combined with veteran talent and skills along the DL will gel into a more formadible unit than the product the Bills showed in 2011?

Addicts, put on your offensive and defensive coordinator caps and let us hear your gameplan for this Sunday in Buffalo.

Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

“It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.” – Sun Tzu, Art of War

The Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. As Addicts, odds are that we as fans are well aware of the Chiefs’ strengths and weaknesses, even if we choose not to outwardly express our thoughts and concerns on certain issues. We know our Chiefs, so to speak. But beyond a few players or personnel, not all of us can say the same about knowing the Falcons.

Though Central Pennsylvania tends to be a melting pot for NFL fans, I can’t say that I know any Atlanta Falcons fans that I can speak football with on a regular basis. Deciding to be proactive, I looked a little further in depth to what Atlanta excelled at last season, and what they might be looking to do this season, and wasn’t really pleased with what I discovered.

Offense

The Falcons are generally perceived as one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL. The likes of Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez pose a clear passing threat, and Michael Turner has been one of the better premier backs in the league for some time. This is well-known.

Julio Jones put in an impressive preseason and has shown that he should be worth every bit that GM Thomas Dimitroff gave up in order to draft him. This should also be known.

What may not be known by the average fan is that the Falcons are among the fastest starting teams in the league. Since 2008, the Falcons ranked first in the league for points scored on their first offensive possession (173), and last season ranked third in the league in this category scoring 51 points on opening drives, which includes six touchdowns. It could be said that Atlanta has become quite accustomed to putting up points right off the bat, and if Kansas City can stall such efforts it may be a bigger momentum-shifting, tone-setting course of events than might otherwise be suspected.

Further, the Falcons and Matt Ryan have publicized Atlanta’s intentions to make more big play attempts in the passing game this season. They are going to throw the deep ball, and they are likely going to throw it more often than other teams, and with much more serious threats in Julio Jones and Roddy White. Matt Ryan has gone so far as to state that “… [completing] one out of three [passes] on balls way down the field [is] not a bad day”, so do not expect a couple failed attempts to be enough to deter Atlanta from going to the air on Sunday. The threat of the deep ball will be a daylong threat, and it will be up to the Chiefs’ banged up secondary and hurting pass rush to keep this threat from becoming a reality.

Additionally, the Falcons boast an 83% scoring efficiency on drives lasting 10 or more plays during the period of 2008-present, and own a 40-13 Win/Loss record during this period when Matt Ryan throws at least one touchdown pass during a game. So on top of guarding against the quick, big play, Kansas City will have to safeguard against the long drawn out drives. Peachy.

On a more positive note, Tony Gonzalez is winding down on his career, and though he has not experienced quite as big of a dropoff in productivity as, say, Antonio Gates, he is not the same player we remember so fondly from his time in Kansas City. Returning to Kansas City may give him an added boost in his play, but overall he’s not as big of a threat as some of us may remember; make no mistake about it, though, he is still a threat. Additionally, there has been a lot of speculation over several outlets that Michael Turner may be looking at a decline in his production. Turner has been around long enough for the general wear and tear that comes with being an NFL running back to take its toll on his body and slow him down a bit. The only other Atlanta running back getting a lot of notice this preseason has been Jacquizz Rodgers, and quite frankly, Nate Eachus put in better performances than Jacquizz Rodgers. When the Chiefs’ No. 5 RB looks better than the Falcons’ No. 2 (or 3) RB, it either says great things about the Chiefs, terrible things about the Falcons, or some combination thereof; in any case, if Turner can be shutdown, the remaining options aren’t looking too threatening.

Defense

If the Falcons’ offense is exceptionally good at scoring on their first possession, the Falcons’ defense is exceptionally good at preventing opposing teams from scoring on first offensive possessions. In fact, the Falcons only allowed 16 points to come from opponents’ first possessions last season, with only one touchdown contributing to that total. Since 2008, the Falcons have only allowed 20.1 points per game, and the organization seems to chalk this up in large part due to the team’s ability to set the tone of the game by preventing opponents from scoring on their first possessions. If you’re Romeo Crennel and Brian Daboll, this one seems pretty clear: score, and score at the first opportunity. Even if the drive takes several plays until meeting the end result of points on the board, it will be a great blow to the Falcons to shove the ball down their throat and have them second guessing their defensive decisions and strategy.

During the offseason, Atlanta traded a seventh-round pick to Philadelphia to retain the services of Asante Samuels. This move gives the Falcons three very good players in their secondary at the CB position: Samuels, Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes. Samuels himself is a bit of a ballhawk, but has been justifiably labeled as a bit of a liability at times. Samuels tends to play on instinct, and while sometimes those instincts help lend to his interception totals, he is apt to give up the big play when those instincts cause him to make the wrong decision on where the ball is going.

Brent Grimes is one of the better CBs in the league, and should be likened a bit to Brandon Flowers. Just as Flowers may not be much of a household name outside the AFC West, Grimes may not be much of a household name outside the NFC South. But like with Flowers, this doesn’t make Grimes any less great.

As for Dunta Robinson, he has been somewhat subjected to the stigma of not living up to his potential; this is likely to change this season. The Atlanta Falcons are putting a high priority on getting to the QB this season, and have been devising new blitzing schemes to better incorporate their personnel in reaching this goal; Dunta Robinson is a large part of these new plans. DC Mike Nolan will be playing Robinson out of the slot position, and allowing Robinson to take on a more physical style of football from this position. Robinson is expected to see more blitzing opportunities and couldn’t be happier for it. This might not be too much of a factor for Kansas City. Though Cassel didn’t look too good in the preseason on the longer developing plays where blitzing was involved, the Chiefs did realize quite a bit of success in throwing the shorter, quicker passes utilizing Charles and Hillis out of the backfield, and McCluster and the TEs over the middle. A successful drive against the Falcons may not involve a lot of impressive deeper down the field style plays, but may rather involve chipping yardage off one play at a time and rendering the Falcons’ new blitzing designs largely ineffectual.

Rubbing salt in the defensive wound, the Falcons lost MLB Curtis Lofton during the offseason which will not only have their LB corps hurting quite a bit, but is a big loss to their leadership on that side of the ball. I am much happier that the Chiefs will be facing a Falcons defense without Lofton than a Falcons defense with him.

Special Teams

The Falcons appear to boast an impressive punting game. P Matt Bosher is consistently successful at dropping the ball inside opponents’ own 20-yard lines, and the punt coverage unit was the NFL’s best last year, holding opponents to an average of 4.8 yards per return.

K Matt Bryant is 37 and has likely lost some kicking strength. While I wouldn’t classify him as great, he is performing at a slightly above average level, and can be trusted to ace kicks less than 40 yards, with 40+ yard attempts being a little iffier.

As for Atlanta’s return game, it looks to be in a transitional stage with untested (in regular games) returner Jacquizz Rodgers currently topping the charts. With poor coverage any returner could take it to the house, but the Chiefs do not appear to be likely to give up a TD to a team at this stage of their return game.

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Overall, Sunday’s game will definitely be a tough battle, as Atlanta looks to be among the more well-rounded teams in the league.

Expected momentum shifts the Chiefs’ defense may cause: 1) stopping the fast start; 2) preventing the big play multiple times in a row; 3) holding Atlanta’s drives to nine plays or less before forcing the punt.

Expected moment shifts the Chiefs’ offense may spur: 1) enacting a fast start of their own; 2) beating the blitz; 3) making Atlanta’s D doubt itself (and their FO sorry for letting Lofton go) by striking up the middle by land and by air.

Expected momentum shifts on special teams: 1) engineering punt returns for double digit yardage; 2) forcing Matt Bryant to attempt 40+ yard FGs.

And, of course, the final momentum shifter is Kansas City’s 12^th man: Make it loud, Chiefs fans, and remember, there’s no shame in making their ears bleed: it just adds more red to the field.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs got spanked by the Seattle Seahawks. As infuriating as it is to write that sentence, there’s no way around it. So, who’s to blame? [This is a cue for the Matt Cassel detractors to skip to the Comments section. This article is probably not for you. I’ll wait.]

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Now that I’ve cut down on my readership (which in hindsight was probably a terrible idea), I will say that I think only a small amount of blame should fall on Cassel. WRs dropping passes that should by all means be caught dead to rights is much more a WR failure than a QB failure. Cassel’s fumble occurred from behind as a result of pass blocking failure, and, if he were standing around like a slouch it’d be one thing, but it’s harder to blame Cassel for not protecting the ball when he was reeling up to launch it (I’m actually incredibly curious what the end result would’ve been had Cassel been able to get the pass off, and, right before the fumble, instantly noticed that despite being under pressure and stepping forward Cassel didn’t lose track of where the line of scrimmage was and such a pass would’ve remained legal). And, though it’s never good to see your team’s QB throw a pick, the Chiefs were down by 23 points at the end of the third quarter and in a third down situation, facing certain sack Cassel made a choice that many NFL QBs (including ones among the elite) would’ve made by trying to dump the ball to the only teammate capable of catching it and keeping the drive alive, it just failed in the worst way possible. If the game were closer, I think we should be more upset at the end result (pick six), but in this particular situation, I’m inclined to cut him a break; if he does it in the regular season when the score is closer, or there’s more time left in the game, then I’ll start calling for his head.

Through the first two preseason games, Cassel looked like a better, more confident QB than we’re used to seeing. Does he still checkdown? Yes, but when that habit has been combined with a supporting run game, the Chiefs have been quite successful this preseason. I don’t think checkdowns are a problem when the plays are called right. In fact, one of the most absurd observations I heard following this last game’s blowout is that, during the only TD drive Cassel engineered, he checked down on all but maybe one pass, which I find absurd because why should anyone complain about checkdowns when the end result is a TD? Trying to throw a deeper ball got the team nowhere, after all. Besides that, a checkdown-laden, successful drive makes the opponent’s D more tired, the Chiefs’ D better rested, and yields less time on the clock for the other team to counter with points of their own.

The offensive playcalling witnessed in the Seahawks game was definitely off compared to the much more successful playcalling in the previous two games. Overall, I think the talent is there, and keeping the playcalling of the first two games and slowly working in the bolder plays of the last game will reap rewards over the long haul, so we shouldn’t be too worried going forward, despite this last game’s final score (offensively).

What fans should be worried about is the secondary. Jalil Brown may or may not have unrealized potential, but a CB replacing Brandon Flowers needs more than unmet “potential” if the Chiefs’ secondary wants to be more than a sieve. And the sieve-like tendency isn’t restricted to this year; going over last year’s statistics, it appears there should be less worry over the run defense, and more worry over the pass defense.

I’ve decided to compare the 2011 Kansas City defense to the Top 3 defenses of the season (Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston) to see how the Chiefs stacked up. We’ll start with examining the run defenses.

As can be seen, the KC had the greater numbers across all categories, which looks pretty bad at first glance. But note that opponents tended to run the ball a lot more against KC’s defense than against the other three teams. To even the playing field (so to speak), I decided to determine the likely results of a rushing attempt against KC versus a rushing attempt against the other three teams; this requires generating a TD% and 1^st Down% for each team. [TD% is equivalent to the TD stat divided by Attempts; 1^st Down% is equivalent to 1^st Downs divided by Attempts. As you’ll note, Y/A has already been calculated and included in the table, as this is a more commonly broken down statistic.] The determination of this breakdown is as follows:

As can be seen, the Chiefs still had a significantly higher than desirable TD% having allowed 2.76% of rushing attempts to result in a TD; however the team fared better than most of the other three teams only having allowed 18.9% of the rushing attempts against them to result in a first down, with Baltimore being the only team performing better. As can be seen in the first table, the Y/A average is negligible, and shouldn’t require too much improvement to match a Top 3 defense. Overall, there is still room to improve the run defense to the level of a Top 3 defense, but, as you’ll soon see, the difference is a lot more lopsided when comparing pass defenses.

The pass defense stats for each of these teams are as follows:

Looking over the table you’ll see that, despite having had less attempts made against them, and having allowed less completions, the Chiefs defense allowed the highest number in each of the remaining categories. So, right off the bat you should know the comparison isn’t going to bode well at all for Kansas City. But keeping with the formula used in comparing run defenses, I’ve calculated the TD% and 1^st Down% to determine the likely results of a passing attempt against KC versus a passing attempt against the other three teams, throwing in the pass completion percentage, as well.

Not only were opponents significantly more likely to complete a pass against the Kansas City defense than the other three teams, but they were also significantly more likely to see that completion turn into a TD or 1st Down, and by a much greater margin than when comparing run defenses. These numbers are unacceptable, and should have us a lot more worried about the team’s pass defense than their run defense, especially when you consider that last year’s secondary consisted of Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and Kendrick Lewis, none of whom are currently able to play for the team (Flowers and Lewis over those pesky injuries, and Carr over that pesky “on another team’s roster” thing).

Only so much of last year’s pass defense failures can be blamed on the rotating starters at the SS position, and on Belcher (a/k/a the defense’s Matt Cassel), and while I think that Routt will adequately replace Carr, and Elam will be a suitable fill-in for Lewis, not even the return of Eric Berry will fully make up for the (albeit temporary) loss of Flowers and the subsequent promotion of Jalil Brown to starting CB.

As the defensive situation currently stands, mobile QBs certainly seem to be an Achilles’ heel, as do better WRs than Jalil Brown can handle (such as Amendola). Only time will tell how Kansas City’s secondary will shake itself out, but make no mistake about it, the Chiefs’ pass defense should be a primary cause for concern, and three above average players in the secondary will be lucky to duplicate last year’s disappointing figures, let alone improve on those numbers. With Berry knocking off more of the rust accrued from not playing last season, and the front seven improving in the pass rush (Hali’s suspension for the Atlanta game notwithstanding), we may have more hope than I’m letting on; however, let us still hope that Lewis and Flowers (especially Flowers) find their way onto the field sooner rather than later, or the Chiefs will very likely be in for a rocky start.

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

Well, Kansas City fans, at this point during the week I’m sure we’re all a little exhausted of hearing about the the Chiefs’ failure against the Rams Saturday night. The Chiefs secondary was lacking in some things (to say the least), the injured status of Kendrick Lewis and Brandon Flowers has us all concerned and Ricky Stanzi performed miserably. To boot, we all have questions pertaining to just what caused Tamba Hali’s suspension. But let’s try to brighten up here. Bowe is back, Cassel is continuing to do well in Daboll’s offense and, at the pace he’s going, Peyton Hillis is looking to be a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. Further, the Chiefs are better off seeing the weakness in their D now instead of, say, the fourth preseason game; the two remaining preseason games should provide us fans with a good litmus test for what to expect from our Chiefs at the start of the regular season now that Crennel knows just what kind of adjustments need made that could hamper some of the better QBs in the league, several of which the team’ll be facing right off the bat.

Before making my predictions last week, I considered how I saw the Chiefs’ 53-man roster fleshing out and drew the following conclusions:

ST: K – 1, P – 1, LS – 1

OFF: QB – 3, RB – 4, WR – 7, OL – 8 or 7, TE – 3 or 4 (8 OL & 3 TE, or 7 OL & 4 TE)

DEF: DL – 7 or 8, LB – 8, DBs– 10 or 9 (7 DL & 10 DBs, or 8  & 9, respectively)

When considering this structure, I felt a few position group numbers were a little high, but a quick look at last year’s roster, courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, assured me that I’m pretty well in the ballpark. And, yes, having a minimum of nine guys in the secondary and a possible ten still seems a little excessive, but when you consider that last year’s active roster, at one point or another, included Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis, Jalil Brown, Travis Daniels, Javier Arenas, Reshard Langford, Jon McGraw, Donald Washington & Sabby Piscitelli, I’m not too far off base. Of the nine or ten DBs I expect to make the roster, do I expect all of them to be on the active roster come game day? No; just as I don’t expect the 7^th WR, 8^th OL, 8^th LB, or 3^rd QB to be on the active roster. Remember, though it’s a 53-man roster, only a maximum of 46 players may be active on game day (up from the previous CBAs 45-man limit), which leads us to this week’s predictions:

1.  With Flowers and Lewis out for an indeterminate amount of time, Crennel will take a hard look at the DBs on roster (I know, I’m friggin’ Nostradamus, right?). Chalking up Saturday’s problems to a secondary that is “young”, “inexperienced” and lacking “maturity”, Crennel will focus mostly on filling out the roster with the more veteran players. Though some of these players’ ceilings may not be as high as some of the newer guys, their consistency and reliability in the short term will prevail over longer term, but potentially better, developmental projects. As I see it the roster will consist of : 1. Flowers; 2. Routt; 3. Berry; 4. Lewis; 5. Abram Elam; 6. Travis Daniels; 7. Jalil Brown; and, 8. Javier Arenas. This leaves one maybe two spots to take on either Jacques Reeves and a project player, or two project players, with the likely candidates being Dequan Menzie, Terrance Parks and Tysyn Hartman. Dequan Menzie may be in the same boat as Junior Hemingway; an injury plagued camp may spell practice squad, but I think the odds of that are worse than with Hemingway, and choosing Menzie and either Parks or Hartman over Reeves to fill out the bottom of the roster wouldn’t be too surprising. That being said, I could somewhat understand if Reeves was chosen to stay on roster with the other candidates being practice squad eligible. In any event I would not be shocked to see all three of Menzie, Parks & Hartman keep ties with the team, even if one or two is/are kept in the capacity of practice squad player(s). The remaining options (Fenner, Fanor, etc.) just don’t strike me as making the cut in any capacity.  That includes Donald Washington, who despite being a veteran and “more mature”, seems to me to be too costly of a save at this point.

Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE

2. Stanzi will still make the roster, but as the No. 3 QB and only for the purposes of continued development. He’s just not looking that good right now, and if a playoff berth is still in the cards and push comes to shove (Cassel and Quinn are unable to play), Pioli has enough sense to make a powerplay for a much better QB. The three I could see getting the most consideration in this hypothetical situation are Matt Moore, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. Moore has the most (and recent) experience in a Daboll-driven offense and could slide in and understand the terminology, assignments, etc. the easiest. Hasselbeck, on top of the reasons Paddy pointed out, not only provides consistently good play, but given his age would not be perceived as a threat to Cassel. And I think Sanchez is simply better than he’s given credit for: he’s actually improved every year he’s been in the league, he has playoff wins under his belt, and given a more stable locker room and stronger supporting offensive cast, I think he would surprise. Obviously, this hypothetical scenario also takes place later in the season where Moore, Hasselbeck and Sanchez may be seen as expendable for the right price. In any case, I don’t see Stanzi taking the field if the Chiefs still have a shot at the playoffs; until he shows us significantly more than he has, I think I’d rather see Zorn suit-up and take the field.

3. Following another lackluster game performance, Josh Bellamy’s stock has dropped some, but he should still be counted as a candidate for the last WR slot (though arguments for Markshausen and, as KCMikeG pointed out, Jamar Newsome have gotten stronger). Bear in mind that a) the last WR isn’t likely to sniff the active roster, b) injury to Bowe or Baldwin will be overcome by Breaston resuming the role of the No. 2 WR, a role he held for most of his career (remember: Boldin played out of the slot in Arizona), and c) an injury to McCluster will result in Breaston, and eventually Wylie, being able to fulfill the role being carved out by Dex. If Breaston or Wylie get injured, it’ll be a blow, but likely not a humongous one. If any two of Bowe, Baldwin and Breaston get injured, the Chiefs would definitely be in trouble, but unless both of those injuries were expected to be long-term, I’d anticipate we’d see Daboll calling for more 2-TE sets until one of the guys returned.

Cary Edmondson-US PRESSWIRE

4. I’ve grown quite fond of Kendrick Lewis. As last year wore on after Berry’s injury, Lewis started to improve by leaps and bounds, and I firmly believe he is a better player now than he otherwise would’ve been at this point in his career had Berry not been injured. In the face of adversity, Kendrick rose to the occasion, and how can you not love a player capable of that? But that being said, I agree with AA’s own Lyle Graversen that the loss of Flowers is greater than the loss of Lewis. Abram Elam will provide adequate temporary replacement of Lewis until Lewis can heal up; however, one of the greatest disappointments concerning Kendrick’s injury is that the newly implemented defensive scheme of putting Lewis and Elam in at safety and letting Eric Berry roam freely and wreak havoc is in danger of not being utilized until his Lewis’ return. Enter Travis Daniels. I’ll admit, I was pretty indifferent to Travis Daniels prior to this season (didn’t love him, didn’t hate him), but since he switched to taking on safety duties, I have a little more hope in his capability to make significant contributions to the team. There are two preseason games left, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see Daniels tested harder at safety to see if he can provide suitable replacement for Lewis in the new scheme so it can start being effectively used before Lewis heals up and returns. With Tamba a certain loss in the Atlanta game, and Flowers and Lewis uncertainties as to whether or not they’ll play, Daniels being coached up enough so that the new scheme isn’t a liability may be integral to a Chiefs victory on opening day. That may be a lot of faith to put into Daniels, but a roving Berry may be the team’s best hope for a victorious pass defense without Flowers, Lewis and Hali in the mix.

Thus concludes my predictions/observations for this week, Addicts. If you disagree with anything I’ve said or proposed, or think that there’s a player I’m not giving enough credit to (or giving too much credit to, for that matter), let me hear it in the “Comments” section. And as always, Go Chiefs!!!!!

A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that the NFL preseason is like a bizarro world version of the NFL. Generally, it’s inconsistent play all around, which allows some players to look good while entire units look lost. Amid all that chaos, it’s really hard to judge anyone or anything accurately. The only way to get around it is with large sample sizes.

Two weeks into the preseason, I think there are only a few things you can assert confidently about the Chiefs:

1.)    Put very little stock in the fact that the Rams were able to get on the board quickly this weekend. As Paddy rightly pointed out, the best indicator of how teams are going to fare in preseason games isn’t the quality of the talent on each side, but rather which coach actually cares about winning the game. Many coaches couldn’t care less. They are throwing darts randomly at a board. “Hmm, ok, let’s see this guy in this play against a first-team defense and see what happens.” “Mmm, ok, let’s see what this guy can do.” They’re not game-planning, they’re not scouting matchups on the other team, because to do so would be a waste of valuable time coaching up players and refining general techniques.

There is an argument for trying to win preseason games if you are a very young team, and/or a team with lots of new players and you are trying to foster team-spirit and get the band of strangers in a winning attitude before the regular season starts. That is the exact situation St. Louis is in right now. Not only do they have more new players on their 90-man list than any other team in the NFL at 56, but they are also the youngest team in the league. Furthermore, Jeff Fisher is known to like to win preseason games. He has the second-best career record in the preseason among active head coaches at .608, beaten out only by Mike Shanahan with .681. Not to mention, the Rams got mauled 38-3 the week before by the similarly young and hopeless Indianapolis Colts. Fisher knew he had to get some good vibes going with his team, and give young quarterback Sam Bradford some confidence.

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

On both the big opening pass to slot receiver Danny Amendola, and the subsequent touchdown pass to TE Lance Kendricks, LB Jovan Belcher was covering. In both cases, I couldn’t really tell if it was zone coverage or man-to-man, because, quite frankly Belcher was so far off. Both times, a safety rushed in to try and break up the play but even Berry couldn’t get there in time. Now, I, of course, can’t prove that Fisher game-planned the first couple series or scouted the Chiefs. All I know is that if you were going to design plays to attack the Chiefs’ defense – that’s exactly how you would do it. By far our biggest defensive weakness is when Belcher is caught in pass coverage on fast, pass-catching tight ends or slot receivers. As stout as he is in the run game, he is just not fast enough to keep up with those guys. As such, Belcher is never put on those guys and is generally not even on the field on likely passing downs. Even in situations where Belcher would be on the field, the Chiefs would have likely adjusted from the beginning to put a safety on the TE or slot guy. The Chiefs started the game in standard base defensive sets and not only did the Rams’ play-calling target Belcher for big gains right off the bat, they ran the plays on 1^st down when he was likely to be on the field as a probable rushing down.

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I believe that often times when something happens where motive and opportunity meet, well, it’s no coincidence. They got what they wanted — two quick, injury-free scores, and an ego-boost for their QB. Immediately afterwards, their starters left the field feeling like they had won. And again, it’s not like it’s a crime to game plan in the preseason to try and show something against soft competition with nothing on the line. There’s a chance Brian Daboll was doing the same thing to boost Cassel’s confidence and make sure the Chiefs came out with a bang against the Cardinals last week.

2.)    Unless Matt Cassel has a total meltdown or gets injured, he is going to go into the regular season with strong momentum. Hidden among the general Chiefs’ shock about how good the Rams played against the Chiefs’ first-team D is the fact that Cassel has hit on 75 percent of his passes so far. Against the Rams, he even nailed the kind of play that we have seen very rarely out of him – flushed from the pocket on 3^rd and long, under heavy pressure, he chucked a dart to McCluster (his smallest target) in tight coverage for a first down.

3.)    In limited action, Charles has shown he still has it. Chiefs fans likely won’t be happy with Jamaal Charles’ recovery until he busts out a huge gainer, but, with the additional weapons that KC has accumulated, we no longer need him to be THE dynamic threat. Hillis has shown himself to be worth every penny, and the Chiefs have a plethora of receiving options. So far this preseason, Charles has had 6 rushes and 3 receptions for 6.4 yards per touch, including 9.7 yards per catch. If we are facing 2^nd and 4 every time by getting to ball to him, I don’t think anyone will be complaining even if he’s not streaking down field for big plays. But don’t worry, he will be.

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

4.)    Glamorous he is not, but Brady Quinn looks like he can help us in a pinch. Look, he’s not Tyler friggin’ Palko, alright? Do I need to say anymore? Ok, fine. 12/19 151 yards 1 TD, 1 INT, good for a 83.44 passer rating. Amazing? No, but how good does a backup on a run-heavy defensive team need to be?

5.)    The Chiefs are going to have to make their hardest roster decision on the D-line this year. KC will probably only keep six or seven defensive linemen on their 53-man roster. I think it is safe to say that Glenn Dorsey, Dontari Poe and Tyson Jackson are staying with the team. So, who gets the remaining three spots? Allen Bailey is probably not going anywhere either as the team’s only true nickel rusher. That leaves two spots for a number of standout backups. Anthony Toribio currently holds the starting NT job and presumably the Chiefs want another passing-down rusher. Amon Gordon was the consistent jack-of-all-trades last year, but he hasn’t shown it so far in camp or in preseason games. Ropati Pitoitua has impressed in camp and has seen the field early preseason action (there’s also an unwritten NFL regulation stating that every team must carry at least one scary dude with an unpronounceable name). Brandon Bair has also shown some sparks in that role too, however.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

And finally, although it may not make the most sense at the moment, I like the idea of keeping Jerrell Powe. He has finally come on as a penetrating NT, which is what they want Poe, his homonymal brother, to become. He was consistently getting pressure in the last two games, and may also be effective as a rotational guy at the other positions. Who knows, with another year of development Powe might even turn out to be straight-up better than Poe, and these types of man-monsters don’t grow on trees. The painful part is that I know that at least a couple of these guys are going to be scavenged off the Chiefs as soon as they’re moved to the practice squad because there is a league-wide demand for such players and a DL-deprived team like the Broncos will be more than happy to take them off of our hands.

Consider this an extension of the “Of Combines and Correlations” series if you will.  However, instead of looking at just rookie scores, I’ve decided to take it a step further to see how our entire roster performed in physical attribute testing, whether through the NFL Combine or Pro Days, how those players compare amongst themselves within their position group, how they stack up against their NFL position peers, and then maybe make some assessments as whether they are beating the odds or falling in line with Joe Landers predictive model.  If you’re new to this approach, you can get a better understanding of what this is all about and perhaps why it even matters by simply reviewing Of Combines and Correlations – Part 1.

Today, we take a look at physical attribute scores for the current roster of Chiefs wide recievers as shown below.

As perhaps you may recall from Of Combines and Correlations – Part 4, Landers concludes from his statistical analysis of the 5 year combine database ending in 2008, that wide receivers who exceeded peer average in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump, plus earned at least two EPAs on top of that had the best odds for future NFL success and that 6 EPAs was optimal, again provided that EPAs in the 40 and VJ were among the EPAs earned.

The first thing that probably catches your eyes here is Josh Bellamy’s perfect* score of 7 EPAs (*noting that WRs almost never participate in the Long Shuttle Drill). 7 would seem even better than 6, right? Well, going off of Landers 5 year dataset, only one receiver achieved 7 EPAs, and as of 2008, that player was not a starter but did at least make roster.  So noted, given the small sample size, I personally wouldn’t make any statistical distinction between 7 EPAs and the optimum 6 EPAs.

Breaking it down a little, the current roster is composed of 3 receivers who achieved 6 EPAs or better, Bellamy, Kinnie, and Wylie, all of whom are rookies.  4th round pick Wylie seems to be leading the pack in terms of camp productivity however the undrafted rookies, Bellamy and local product Kinnie, have certainly also made some plays when given the opportunity.  It’s tough to figure out at this point what the Chiefs plan to do with all this fresh infusion of speed and athleticism in the context of a 53 man roster, but it will be an interesting story to watch nonetheless. Also, keep in mind that Landers timeline for determining NFL success (i.e., 1st teamer status) is 5 years or less from the time of being drafted (or in the case of UDFA’s, being signed).

Of these three, I suppose I am most optimistic about Wylie in terms of making the 53 man roster and having an immediate impact as a returner. In the case of Bellamy, he’s definitely garnered a lot of well deserved attention in training camp to date. Similarly, Kinnie has flashed some ability as a big, speedy, physical red zone threat with good hands.

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending upon how one views the situation, the Chiefs are likely to only keep 6 receivers on the active roster and those most likely to make the final cut at this point seem to be Bowe, Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, Wylie and I’m going to guess Copper (as a special teamer).  In the case of both Bellamy and Kinnie, even if the Chiefs are intending to slate both for the practice squad (and let’s not  leave Jeremy Horne out of this conversation either) I would really hate to see either of those guys get snatched up on waivers while we’re waiting to place them on the practice squad.

Of course, there remains several weeks before the Chiefs have to make that final cut. Things can change, injuries, competition, whatever so perhaps one or more of these guys on the outside develops quickly between now and then and earns (or steps into) an open roster spot? Scott Pioli also needs to think about the long term future of the organization.

Will Bowe be signed to a long term deal? Will he be franchised two years in a row (that second year gets pretty expensive mind you)? There are a number of things going on that suggest to me that this will be Dwayne Bowe’s last season with the Chiefs. Hopefully we get something valuable in exchange for him.

I’m also not all that certain that Steve Breaston will be around much longer either. His contract is not expensive and his production last season was nothing to write home about. I strongly recommend everyone link here to get Football Outsiders evaluation of both Bowe’s and Breaston’s 2011 campaign. Frankly, neither particularly wowed in terms of elite receiver qualifications.

With what appears to be the recent emergence of Baldwin and McCluster, along with the need to develop a receiver or two to replace Bowe, perhaps Breaston suddenly becomes expendable and one or more of these guys on the bubble can avoid the practice team/waiver conundrum and gets a year to develop as part of the regular 53 man squad? It’s also hard to say at this point whether Copper is a lock between now and the final cut.

That my Double Take Addicts.

Let me hear your thoughts on all this. Are you impressed by the physical talent and potential of the Chiefs’ rookie wide receivers this year? Are you at all surprised by what appears to be a less-than-ideal physical attribute skills of the receivers currently on the roster;  especially considering we’re talking about guys that most might consider the mainstays of our receiver corps? Lastly, what do you think holds for the future of this group?

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel find themselves in an uncommon predicament in Kansas City. The Chiefs have more depth than they’ve had in years, and it’s time to start pruning back the roster. While Pioli has more notable experience at this task due to his time in New England, RAC’s experience as HC in Cleveland was probably less “which player is better” and more “which player sucks less”.

Further, the CBA explicitly leaves it to each team to determine its own cutdown schedule, which for Pioli, at least, tasks him with determining what moves are best for the team that’ll play the regular season and what moves are best for the ledger. You see, while the Chiefs could hold, in theory, hold all players until the end of the preseason, making all cuts and practice squad assignments in one fell swoop, they also have to pay each player each week they remain on roster (plus housing, meals and other costs). For players that have not yet accrued one NFL season the rate is $850 per week. For the remaining players, who are considered veterans with at least one season under belt, the sum is $1,600 per week.

Being in a position not so concerned about the business aspect of the NFL, Crennel will obviously be interested in getting the best players for his team on the 53-man roster.

A few position groups look a little tighter than others and will warrant longer looks. The Chiefs’ RB/FB group, DL & OL look particularly tight. Their LB corps also looks tight outside of DJ, Hali, Houston & Belcher/Siler, but the talent dropoff is a little bit more noticeable for the remainders (which is bound to happen when compared to DJ, Hali and the emerging Houston). The WRs and DBs are overcrowded, but a few names are clearly improving and impressing over others so it might not be as tight as it looks on paper. QBs look pretty straightforward (Cassel, Quinn & Stanzi on roster and Tanney on the practice squad), as does TE (Boss, Moeaki & Maneri on roster for sure; maybe Biere or O’Connell if they decide to keep a fourth).

A couple important things to note is that, while it is a 53-man roster, the practice squad is allowed up to 8 players (9 if the team puts an international player on the squad as the 9th person, which doesn’t look to be pertinent to the Chiefs this year). So realistically, of the 90 men on roster, only 29 must be cut from the team completely. Also an interesting point to note is that, while any team can sign a player from another team’s practice squad, they may only do so in the interest of adding the player to the second team’s own 53-man roster; the CBA prohibits teams from taking a player off another team’s practice squad just to turn around and put the player on their own practice squad.

Following Preseason Week 1, here are a few observations and predictions concerning how Pioli & Co. may handle the cuts this season:

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

1. Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray both look like they could be solid contributors in the regular season. Putting one of these players on the practice squad could be synonymous with cutting them, as I think another team would be likely to clear a spot on their 53-man roster to take a chance on them. Inversely, I don’t see the Chiefs carrying more than 4 players in the backfield, which means they might have to do without a fulltime FB. Hillis can provide these services, if needed, and the team’s decision to crosstrain a few TEs in the role may make Shane Bannon expendable. Notice I said “expendable” rather than “relegated to the practice squad for another year”. The Steelers starting FB went down to an ACL tear during the Steelers preseason opener against the Eagles, and is likely to be out for the entire season.* The Steelers have a way of making good use of their FB on roster and may be looking to replace him for the season. Todd Haley might look no further than KC in recommending a replacement to HC Mike Tomlin, and Haley’s eyes may be on the waiver wire or KC’s practice squad (as the case may be). Now the Steelers have shown a tendency to prefer FBs that are more in the FB/TE hybrid vein, so maybe this circumstance won’t arise, but it bears keeping an eye on.

* Been there, right? Hey, maybe the injury bug followed Haley to Pittsburgh. Wouldn’t that be nice?

2. In limited punting opportunities, K/P Matt Szymanski put up numbers comparable to Colquitt’s. Additionally, Szymanski did consistently great during his opportunities on placekicking duties. While it’s likely that Colquitt will remain the Chiefs’ punter this season, and that the Chiefs won’t carry more than one kicker and one punter on the 53-man roster (other position groups are too crowded and the additional spot could be better used elsewhere), more importance has been placed on STs this year, and the future prospect of only needing to use one roster slot for a K and P is enticing (and we all know Pioli loves versatility). I expect Szymanski to get a practice squad slot and to receive a lot of focus on punting this season. If it looks like he could suitably replace Colquitt, Pioli may just let Dustin’s contract expire at the end of the season and move forward with the player that may potentially develop into a suitable K as well a few years down the line.

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3. The DL looks thicker. Just a few months ago a lot of fans were taking it for granted that players like Powe and Amon Gordon would make the roster, myself included; now, I’m not too sure. Toribio has progressed more than any of us probably anticipated and will likely remain in the Top 2 in the depth chart at NT. Gordon does have an edge on Powe, as he can handle either DE or NT duties, but even there depth at DE looks just as thick and may not accommodate Gordon. Besides Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey, the Chiefs have Allen Bailey who looks to provide the team with a better pass rush from the DL, the solidly built veteran Ropati Pitoitua, and Brandon Bair has started to make a little bit of noise on the field. Eight players for the DL seems like a little much, especially if Poe can prove his stamina before the preseason is over and be a three-down player. Powe may have a shot of making the roster, if RAC determines that Dontari can provide DE services consistently enough to go with the anticipated NT services (thereby rendering Gordon as aged and obsolete a’la Kelly Gregg). But as of right now, I expect 7 men to carry over to the 53-man roster with the last spot going to either Bair or Gordon.

4. My fourth and final prediction following Week 1 concerns the WR situation. I can reasonably see 7 WRs making it to the 53-man roster. Bowe, Baldwin, Breaston, McCluster & Wylie are almost sure to be locks with the remaining WRs duking it out for the last two slots. I think Terrence Copper’s proven effectiveness on special teams and his veteran presence might give him an edge for the sixth slot. The real battle will be over the final slot, and I think the top contenders will be Josh Bellamy, Zeke Markhausen and Junior Hemingway. Markhausen has more experience (though ever so slightly) over the other two, Bellamy has been turning heads in practice (though his play was a little lackluster against the Cards), and Pioli and the KC scouts obviously saw something they liked in Hemingway (though injuries have plagued his training thus far). Hemingway’s injuries haven’t just deterred the Chiefs from getting a good read on him, but the other NFL teams likely won’t risk a roster slot on him, plus his upside looks better than Markhausen, so Junior might be a prime candidate for the practice squad. This leaves Bellamy and Markhausen vying for the last slot. Zeke having enough experience to be a little more used to the speed of the game at the NFL level is reassuring; however, Bellamy has created buzz and may not stay around long if relegated to the practice squad. Additionally, Bellamy has a certain kind of experience that no other KC WR has: Bellamy played double duty, as needed, in college as both a WR and a CB. While ultimately going undrafted and getting signed by the Chiefs as a WR, Bellamy may have future stock in being crosstrained for defense. But for the here and now, Bellamy could earn a roster spot for his ST ability as his time playing D in college likely means that his tackling technique is noticeably more refined than his competitions’ at WR in KC. I expect Bellamy to continue to work hard in practice and to earn a spot on this year’s roster.

So there’s my take following Preseason Week 1. What’s your take, Addicts? Sound off…

With their thumping 27-17 win (with the score 17-0 as the starters left the field), the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs have made their presence known, and while I always anticipated the Chiefs to be improved this year, it was clear that this game was all about surprise.

Suddenly, the national media have looked up from their Peyton Manning talking points and realized that there is another team in the AFC West – one far more likely to be playoff bound. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen said as much after the game via Twitter, “I’m starting to agree with #Chiefs fans – national media (ESPN included) has fallen asleep on KC. They may be team to beat in AFC West.”

It’s important to remember that the Chiefs and the Cardinals were considered to be evenly-matched teams before this game. In fact, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports had the Cards ranked 16^th in his July 25 power rankings, with the Chiefs at a lowly 22^nd, justified by a rote comment about Matt Cassel defining the team’s overall worth (the laziness of what passes for analysis by national football writers astounds me at times).

But, it wasn’t just surprising that the Chiefs were impressive, or even that they gave Arizona a shellacking – it’s how they dominated. WR Dwayne Bowe wasn’t on the field. Neither WR Steve Breaston, nor WR Jonathan Baldwin, who has been blowing up training camp, caught a single pass. RB Jamaal Charles had just three carries for 12 yards. OLB Tamba Hali had zero sacks, and NT Dontari Poe barely registered his presence. And the Chiefs dominated.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Cassel looked polished and comfortable, going 5/6 for 67 yards and a TD. RB Peyton Hillis, coming off a down year, looked fantastic running for 41 yards on four carries plus an 11-yard touchdown pass. WR/RB Dexter McCluster showed his skills as a matchup nightmare, reeling in three passes for 45 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense started with back-to-back 3-and-outs followed by an interception and tallied seven sacks on the night. In the limited amount of time that the Chiefs’ starters were out on the field, it was a massacre. In the late first quarter, I wrote in my notes “THIS IS CHILD’S PLAY!”

This game was also all about surprise because of the play-calling of OC Brian Daboll. I already love this man. Most notable was his fantastic call on 4^th and 3. The Chiefs lined up with heavy personnel in a goal-line formation. As the defense began stacking the box to charge in up the middle, Cassel motioned all the backs and TEs out wide making it a five-receiver set with an open backfield. This threw the defense into chaos as they tried to adjust to coverage in panic. While they were still yelling at each other, Cassel slid in behind C Rodney Hudson for a sneaky conversion. I cannot tell you how much I loved that play – great design, perfectly executed.

Ever since Daboll was hired, we at AA and across Chiefs Nation have been pondering what Daboll’s offence “based on matchups” really meant. I think we’re now beginning to figure that out. While I think this game confirmed my assertion that Hillis could end up the Chiefs’ biggest free agent acquisition, I’m already eating my words about WR Devon Wylie and RB Cyrus Gray replacing McCluster. Dex’s move to being a pure slot receiver already looks like it will pay off dividends in 2012. On two big plays, Daboll drew things up so that Baldwin – the #1 target – would force a one-on-one on McCluster, who has now definitely shown that he has improved his route-running and ability to get open.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Most fundamentally, as Paddy pointed out, it’s clear the Chiefs generally grasp his offense and are executing it well. During the second half, GM Scott Pioli was in the press box talking about how the Chiefs now run like a well-oiled machine, getting plays in on time and communicating efficiently. As much as his image as a disciplinarian and ultra stickler for detail put me off, it is clear that the overall culture he is trying to install works. Players were always walking with confidence out there, and coaches seemed to be able to communicate well without wasting time with petty bickering.

The other big surprise is how deep the Chiefs seem to be at nose tackle. While Poe showed he still has a lot to learn, former practice-squader Anthony Toribio showed why he has taken the starting spot. He consistently got off blocks and single-handedly stuffed a running back in the backfield playing against the Cardinals’ starters. Meanwhile, Jerrel Powe was also impressive, getting penetration several times and even notching a sack from the nose tackle position. Poe clearly pushed the pocket on a few downs, but often times seemed to be playing patty-cake with the O-linemen – still unsure of how to use his hands effectively. He seemed to either be focusing too much on his hands or not enough. But, at the very least, he did get double-teamed nearly every time, which was a large part of why KC racked up so many sacks on the game.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The only negative surprises in this game were in the play of the Chiefs’ backup QBs. Although they are in a tight competition, neither played well. Still, neither arguably played worse than Arizona’s two quarterbacks competing over the starting job. I look forward to seeing Tanney bank some passes off the uprights for a touchdown in Game 2 of the preseason.

Generally speaking, it was hard to come away with anything but positive vibes after this game. The Chiefs are back with a vengeance this year and they have shown that they can beat you in any number of different ways. Wherever you are weakest, that’s where we will strike, because we have the tools to get you anywhere, anytime.

A favorite pastime for Chiefs fans this offseason has been debating whether or not a Matt Cassel-led Kansas City Chiefs can achieve Super Bowl glory. Abounding arguments eventually degenerate to: you need an elite QB to win a SB, and Matt Cassel is not an elite QB.

Some of the more brazen fans would allude to the possibility that Matt Cassel still might become elite. While there still may be time for him to develop, and it’ll be interesting to see how Tom House’s work with Cassel on his throwing mechanics will translate to the field on game day, the odds of eliteness aren’t too good. However, with all the changes we hope to see, we should be looking at a Top 20 passing offense at the least.

“Big whoop,” I imagine you saying. “In what world does a team with a QB lucky to break the Top 20 have a real chance at a Super Bowl title? Sure, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson did it. But two teams in the past 12 years are not the kind of odds to hang your hopes on.”

Methinks you doth protest too much.

I’m not gonna rehash the little factoids such as Rex Grossman getting the Bears to the SB in the 2006 season. Or that just this past season we were poor special teams play away from witnessing two non-elite QBs in the big game. Though go-to favorites, we’re all Addicts here, and those arguments are old hat.

But what if I told you that the ’00 Ravens and ’02 Bucs weren’t the only teams to win a SB in the past dozen years without elite QB-play? That three other teams made it happen in a way our very own Chiefs could well duplicate this year? I present to you the ’01 Patriots, the ’05 Steelers and ’07 Giants.

“Wait just a minute, slappy; Brady, Roethlisberger and Eli Manning are all counted among the elite.” Yeah they are… now. But let’s take off the rose-tinted glasses and go back in time to the years these QBs got their first SB rings… And it’s not nice to call me “slappy”…

The date is Feb. 3, 2002: Rams vs. Patriots. After Drew Bledsoe suffered a serious injury in Week 2 of the season, the Patriots had been left to play a sixth-round pick out of Michigan that only just entered his second year as an NFL pro. He hasn’t done too bad over the season, but, still, the Patriots finished off the season ranking only 22^nd in passing. By comparison, they ranked 13^th in rushing, and their defense 6^th in points allowed. Brady has only posted 2,843 passing yards on the season (a career low in seasons he saw significant playing time), 18 TDs (another career low), and a 2.9 percent INT rate (a career high). Further, the Patriots barely made it through the playoffs, and were fortunate that their divisional round game against the Raiders was officiated by a team of refs that were aware of an obscure rule that kept what could’ve been a fumble merely an incomplete pass, opening up an opportunity for K Adam Vinatieri to make an insanely long kick in terrible weather conditions… the kind of kick Hollywood would glorify, but moviegoers would think to be too highly unlikely, if not impossible, to happen in real life. Following up on that near loss, the Patriots met trouble in the AFC Championship game against the Steelers. Brady went down to injury and Bledsoe came back in and was able to save the day.

So it was a rough road, but the Patriots were able to make it into the Super Bowl. Let’s see how Brady did: completing 16 out of 27 passes (a 59.25% completion rate), Brady had 145 yards passing on the day and one TD (an eight-yd pass to David Patten). Not quite yet the showing of an elite QB. So where did the win come from if not on the back of the QB? I see they rushed for a combined 133 yards, almost matching their passing production (not too shabby). Still, the Pats total combined offense didn’t surpass Kurt Warner’s passing offense (365 yards), and chipping in 92 yards rushing for the Rams just adds to the lopsidedness. Guess the Pats’ defense is owed a lot of credit considering all that production didn’t result in more points. Okay, and Ty Law had a 47-yd INT return for a TD. That would definitely help. And Vinatieri shows up again with 37-yd and 48-yd FGs; the 48-yarder getting the win. Guess we know who’s getting the MVP… Wait! It was Brady?!?! I guess giving the K his due would offend your QBs delicate sensibilities. But what about Ty Law, or someone else on D that shut down the Rams when it was needed the most? “What’s that? Defensive players get the SB MVP with the same frequency they win the Heisman, and Ray Lewis just got MVP in the previous SB?” Okay. Let the history book insinuate that Brady was better than he was that early on; in the meantime, sports photographers will make a killing selling Vinatieri pictures and prints to the New England fans that knew better.

Moving on, let’s examine Roethlisberger and the 2005 Steelers. You know what? This one’s easy. The Steelers finished the season ranked 24^th in passing offense, 5^th in rushing offense and 3^rd in Defensive Points Allowed. They had as many TDs rushing as they did passing (21) and four of those passing TDs weren’t even thrown by Roethlisberger. Big Ben had 2,385 passing yards on the season, and had a pathetic showing in the SB, posting a Passer Rating of 22.6. Seriously. Ben completed 9 of 21 passes for 123 yds in the SB, and 2 INTS. The only Pittsburgh TD reception came on a WR pass from Antwaan Randle-El to Hines Ward. If the 2002 Bucs are proof that a team can win it all with a disgustingly high scoring defense, the 2005 Steelers are proof perfect that a team with a shutdown defense and a top notch running game can win it all.

The 2007 Giants are perhaps the toughest to defend. Eli finished the season with 3,336 passing yards (right around Cassel’s top end). While he did post 23 TD receptions on the year, he led the league in INTs with 20… by no means a good ratio, let alone an “elite” QBs ratio. He also completed only 57.7 percent of his passes (Cassel’s career average is 59 percent). All in all, the Giants passing offense on the season was ranked 21^st, their defense 17^th in points allowed (though 7^th in yards allowed), and 4^th overall in rushing offense with their RBs contributing 15 TDs on the season. So their defense was about average, their running game well above average, and their passing game considerably below average.

What makes a tough point to argue is that Eli put in a significantly better SB performance than either Brady or Ben in their first go-rounds (especially Ben… 22.6 Passer Rating?!?! C’mon!) Eli completed 19 of 34 passes (a 55.9% completion rate) for 255 yds, two TDs and one INT. What shouldn’t be overlooked is the fact that the Patriots were having a perfect season, losing no games and averaging just shy of 37 points per game and despite this, the Giants’ defense really stepped it up and held the Pats to 14 points (including overcoming a near successful game winning drive in the final minute of play).

It should also be remembered that the Giants’ final drive was kept alive by David Tyree knowing enough to break his route and give Eli a target down-field before getting sacked… and also making a miraculous helmet catch that may well define the term “circus catch”. While Eli deserves some credit for staying on his feet; Tyree deserves the bulk of the credit for his situational awareness and making such an unlikely catch.

So, there you have it: three more teams and three more SBs, where the quality of QB play was much less elite and much more Cassel-esque. And while these players may be elite now, their production and circumstances indicate that in these years their teams won, not on the strength of their QB, but on the strength of the team as a whole. Be it a strong defense keeping the score low, a running game that pounded the ball and controlled the clock, or particularly good special teams play, these teams persevered and earned the coveted title.

Overall, our beloved Chiefs have the makings of such a team. Our defense is primed to crack the Top 10, if not the Top five. If Charles and Hillis return to some semblance of their 2010 form, the Chiefs are pretty much guaranteed a Top 5 run game, if not No. 1. And the increased talent and strength of our offensive line should keep the Richard Seymours of the world at bay long enough for Ryan Succop to keep us alive when we need it the most. Everyone wants a playoff win (and it has been a while), and as heartbreaking as it may be to hope for a higher goal and fall short, I see no reason why we can’t win it all this year and bring the Lombardi Trophy to where it would look best: Kansas City. Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!

 Last time, we explored what to expect from, and what should be expected of, Jeff Allen this year. Moving forward with our examination of our newest offensive linemen, we turn our attention to Donald Stephenson.

Donald Stephenson only played two years in college which some people are taking as a cause for concern. But when he did play, it was at the position on the line with perhaps the least margin for error: blind-side tackle. I say “blind-side tackle” because LT is only the toughest position when the QB’s right-handed (okay: so that’s the case, like, 99.5 percent of the time), but what makes it tough is not which side of the center you’re playing at, but the fact that the QB can’t see what’s coming from your direction and a failed block could result in huge consequences (ask Joe Thiesman).

At his time at Oklahoma, Stephenson logged over 100 knockdowns in each of his two years starting. For comparison, Jeff Allen averaged somewhere in the mid-80s per year over a four year span in college. Additionally, at the NFL level, 100 knockdowns is generally the benchmark for OLs to hit if they wish to be in serious contention for a Pro Bowl berth.

A knockdown is almost as simple as it sounds like… almost. A knockdown is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground, and there are two types of knockdown. The first type, which doesn’t really have a special name, is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground and move on to take on a still-standing defender. The second type is called a “pancake” and consists of, as you’re knocking a player down, following him to the ground, landing on top of him, and staying put (effectively removing any chance that defender had of making a stop for the rest of that play, since, if you can’t get up, you likely can’t tackle/sack anybody, you can’t defend/intercept any passes and you can’t force/recover any fumbles).

Regular knockdowns are preferable for running plays when the OL is serving as a lead blocker. In this case, when a defender is knocked down, by the time he gets back up the play is long past him. Pancakes are best reserved as the type of knockdown to use in a pass play. As I previously stated, if you can’t get up, you can’t get sacks/interceptions/etc. Knockdowns are one of few stats kept track of for OLs throughout their football careers (you’ll also see stats for sacks allowed, QB hurries allowed and TD-resulting blocks). When you hear “knockdown” just remember that this number includes pancakes. Like all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares, all pancakes are knockdowns but not all knockdowns are pancakes.

Essentially, Stephenson did very well in neutralizing players in large part due to this ability. To boot, the Oklahoma line as a whole only gave up 11 sacks last season… as a whole!

So, if Stephenson played so well, why did he only start for two years in college? When Stephenson arrived in Oklahoma he found himself behind junior OT Trent Williams on the depth chart. The same Trent Williams that the Redskins chose as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. When Williams arrived in Oklahoma in 2006 he found himself in a similar quandary sitting behind OT Branndon Braxton. Fortunately (for Williams) Braxton went down to injury partway into the 2006 season and Williams was afforded the opportunity to showcase his abilities as a freshman. The next season the coaches split snaps between Williams and Braxton. Stephenson wasn’t quite so fortunate to receive a similar opportunity; following Braxton’s departure, Williams did not miss college playing time with the exception of the last regular season game of his senior year.

We should probably give Stephenson a little more attention than we have been, don’t you think?

Stephenson is set to be a “swing” tackle this year. If Albert or Winston need a breather, Stephenson will be our guy. And believe it or not, swing tackle is one of the tougher jobs on the offensive line. Don’t believe me? You’ve seen a tackle come out of his stance before; one of the first things he does is flip his hips to the outside. Get out of your chair and try it. To spare you some embarrassment (or at least an explanation to your co-workers), I won’t ask you to get down in a three-point stance; you can start off in a position that still has a good bend in the knees and waist. Now, open your hips out to the right (like a RT) bringing your arms up like you’re blocking. Now, try it opening your hips out to the left. One of those felt more natural and fluid than the other, didn’t it?* This plays a large part of why great RTs can make lousy LTs, and vice versa; you’re trying to get your body to do something that just doesn’t feel right.

* It did.

In order to excel in the swing tackle role (truly excel), Stephenson will have to rep this over and over and over again until opening his hips one way feels just as natural and fluid as opening his hips the other way to realize similar success at both positions (LT and RT). Thankfully, his success in college at LT seems to indicate that he’s well versed in opening his hips to the left, so Cassel won’t have to worry much about his blindside when Albert needs a break. How well Stephenson will do when Winston needs a break is the bigger question mark right now.

I am a huge proponent of the “lockup Albert to a long-term deal” crowd, and I think Winston is a Godsend, but Stephenson will be a significant contributor. As Paddy recently pointed out, Albert is ranked highly in pass protection, and Winston in run blocking. If Stephenson can spell our players for a stretch of plays they’re less successful at (Albert on runs and Winston on passes), it’ll keep our starters fresh and read to dominate even more on the plays they’re best at. That would be a significant contribution.

So is Stephenson a starter this year? No. Will he be a starter for the Chiefs in the long-term? Not if Pioli does his job and extends Albert’s contract. But he will play an important part in our line’s success this year, and that is worth a third-round pick.

Well played, Pioli, well played…

After the selection of Dontari Poe with the 11th overall pick, Scott Pioli surprised Chiefs Nation further by taking not one, but two more linemen with the next picks, this time on the offensive side of the ball.

It’s hard to surmise which pick was more surprising. Illinois OT Jeff Allen didn’t get much media coverage before the draft, but do you know who did? C Peter Konz and OT Mike Adams, both of whom were still available. “C’MON, PIOLI! Who is this guy?” cried Chiefs Nation. And the internet exploded killing hundreds and severely injuring thousands as Chiefs fans scoured the message boards everywhere lamenting the passing of Konz and Adams, and trying to find out just who Jeff Allen is (true story).

But then Pioli goes and drafts Donald Stephenson in Round 3. Okay; he’s a home boy and was invited to the Chiefs’ local pro day, at least we know who he is. But didn’t most pundits predict him to go in the 5th Round, some as early as round 4 to be fair, but more than that as late as Round 6?!?

With the exception of the pass rushing variety and the automatic-upgrade-to-any-team variety, linemen are not sexy draft picks. They’re just not. Linemen are like most businesses’ support staffs: if they do their job well, they run the risk of going unnoticed and their talents taken for granted, so only when they falter are they guaranteed to get attention. But also like support staffs, their success is vital in keeping things running like a well-oiled machine.

As we learned shortly after the pick, Jeff Allen played throughout his entire college career, starting at RT and making the move to LT shortly thereafter, and earning awards, honors and mentions all along his way. Allen is projected to ultimately supplant Ryan Lilja at LG, a move not uncommon when college players turn pro (just this year the League even saw a veteran make the move when PIT moved Willie Colon, formerly a T, to G for the upcoming season). A move like this tends to be less mentally taxing on a player than you might think. Whereas D-Linemen can succeed well knowing their own individual assignment and trusting their teammates to know theirs, O-Linemen succeed best when they know not just their individual blocking assignment, but also the assignments of the guys beside them… Oh! Also their mirror counterparts at the other end of the line.

Whether you’ve only played football in video games or played physically at some level in your life, you should probably know that when a play is added to the offensive playbook it’s actually added twice: one the way the play was originally drawn up, and the other, the mirror image of that play. Usually something minute in the play call tells the players which way the play’s going. [Ex: Say a run play’s called the “25 Pitch”. The play calling system we’re using might be that the “5” in “25” means the pitch is going to the left. If the play’s called as “26 Pitch”, the “6” would mean it’s going to the right.] When looking at the play in its original and in its reverse, the change in WR routes and/or RB assignments is usually pretty noticeable between the two versions. What might be overlooked, or not even considered without thinking, is that blocking assignments change between the two as well. It’s beneficial to an OL to not just know what they’re doing individually on one version of the play, but also what their mirror counterparts are doing on the other side, because they’ll be expected to do the same when the play’s called in the opposite direction. Bear in mind, this is also while knowing what blocking assignments the man next to you in line will be required to make. Ultimately, the best OLs wind up knowing what everyone’s assignments on the line are, because it’s kind of important.

The real consideration when an OL changes position is whether or not they have the physical tools to make the transition.

Cs can be a little bit smaller than their fellow linemen, as their blocking assignments will often involve assisting a G on a block, picking up a smaller blitzer (read: LB or S) or (in runs up the gut) blocking a LB downfield (also called “on the next level”). Plus, the half a moment it takes to snap the ball is a half a moment during which your teammates have already engaged in their blocks (so making a C’s assignment to be to assist a G on a block or pick up a blitzer makes sense, as these things can wait a half moment).

Gs, working between the C and a T, can have a little less side-to-side foot quickness than, say, Ts, but should count forward moving speed as one of their greatest assets as they’ll be required to, often enough, break from the line on a pull or a trap.

Ts, not necessarily having someone to their outer side (if no TE is lined up), benefit most from side-to-side foot quickness as there’s a whole open field on the outer side of them that they absolutely must be able to defend. I hear that the failure to do this is called “Barry the Bullfighter Syndrome” around these parts.

With the Chiefs starting their first practices on Friday, the 2012 season has for all intents and purposes begun.

With any luck, by this time next week we will know more about how the 2012 Chiefs will look, play and prosper and you will no longer have to read articles rehashing past moves or talking about what might happen once the season kicks off. That’s right, ladies and gents. Very soon, there will be some real football to talk about.

But until then, let’s take one last look back at the 204 days that we have been without Chiefs football since we rained on Tebow’s playoff parade in Week 17. After all, back then the starting quarterback was Kyle Orton, everyone thought we were going to draft David DeCastro and Peyton Manning was still a Colt.

Best Arrest

Although Al Davis, sadly, has left us, his legacy lives on in a number of absurd debilitating moves that have kept the Oakland Raiders uncompetitive for a record stretch of time. One of Davis’ recent hits was drafting Alabama LB Ronaldo McClain 8^th overall in 2010 and signing him to a (pre-CBA) $40-million contract. On top of being an overall disappointment – even more so than his cousin LeRon McClain’s stint with the Chiefs – apparently, a fun night out for him can be described as “third-degree assault, menacing, reckless endangerment and discharging a firearm inside the city limits.” Due to all of that silliness, McClain was sentenced to 180 days in jail. Despite his mediocre play on the field, he is still the Raiders’ starting middle linebacker (for now) and it appears this sentence will keep him out of the whole 2012 season.

He's a lot cuter when he's not shooting a gun by your head. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

But don’t feel too bad for the guy; while in jail he’ll probably still be making around $5 million in guaranteed money.

Best Roster Move

While there could arguably be a debate over who the Chiefs’ best offseason acquisition was, clearly the best improvement in single position came with the signing of Tackle Eric Winston and the banishment of Barry Richardson to the St. Louis Rams (who apparently hate their quarterback). It is truly rare when a team is able to turn their weakest position into one of their strongest, but that is what KC pulled off this year. In addition to getting the guy that is quite possibly the best right tackle in football, adding Winston also instantly made the Chiefs O-line one of the strengths of the team. After years of god awful blocking, we now have one of the better units in the league with bookend tackles and a fairly deep bunch of young players in the interior.

Best League Scheduling Oversight

Due to rules governing prime time games, the Chiefs in effect get two bye weeks this season. In addition to their Week 7 bye, the Chiefs have an 11-day break between their Week 9 Thursday Night Football game against the Chargers and a Monday Night Football game against the Steelers.

Best Throw-Down Move in the Division

I’m not going to lie, while this sentiment is in no way based in any type of rationality, I love that Peyton Manning has joined the division after snubbing the Chiefs. Is this objectively good for the Chiefs’ chances of winning the division? No. Does it motivate me even more to crush the Donkeys? Yes.

My only complaint is that the Chiefs don’t get to face off against Manning’s merry band of mules until Week 12, and, in all likelihood, he will have broken his neck seven times by then. On the other hand, if his bionic neck holds up that long, it’s very likely that Week 12 is going to be a great game – one that will have major divisional and playoff implications. Although I have been watching Peyton carve up defenses for the last decade, I can’t help but mentally taunt Denver every day until that game comes. This year is our year. Bring it on. Throw-down time.

Best Offseason Prediction

I totally said that we should draft Dontari Poe and everyone complained about the suggestion and in the end we did draft him. So there.

Worst Offseason Storyline

Arrowhead Anxiety-gate. Although many of you have likely forgotten about this by now, the 2011 offseason started with a stunning expose by the Star’s Kent Babb about how Scott Pioli scared the bejesus out of most people who work for the Chiefs. Todd Haley believed he was wiretapped. He wasn’t alone. Employee turnover was extreme. Old people were swept out the door. Pioli picked up trash he found and creepily presented it at board meetings in evidence bags. Everyone, including business-side employees, was forbidden from getting a peek at anything going on at the practice field.

Not only was this bad press for the Chiefs, this was the kind of story that shook at the very base of all of our feelings about the Pioli regime. Sure, he’s been very effective, but he just might be an exiled dictator in an elaborate disguise. The fact that the publication of the story was followed by increasing rumors and comments by league figures that this is why many players choose to avoid Kansas City left a sour taste in my mouth. Was it Pioli and his reputation that made Peyton Manning decide to not even visit with the team, despite its playoff-ready roster? Was Todd Haley batnuts crazy because Pioli’s management style turned him into a paranoid schizophrenic? We’ll probably never know.

Worst Moment of Chiefs Fandom

Cassel getting booed at a celebrity softball game. Really, people? I’m not saying the guy’s a great player, but wait until he throws his 5^th check-down in a row or manages to toss a no-look interception on a screen pass while in field-goal range with the game on the line. Even then, I’d prefer you all to react the same way that I, as any gentlemen, acts in this situation. Let a single tear roll down your cheek, physically assault someone in the immediate vicinity and order another beer (note: I only cry because of the adrenaline).

Worst Overall Change

The uniform design. Look, it’s not that bad and it seems like the material is going to be a lot better, but I agreed with some commenter who said they look like red Browns jerseys. Now I can’t get imagine out my head and all I can think is “yuck” whenever I see them (I do dig the gloves though).

Last week hope remained that Bowe would be offered a multi-year contract before Monday’s deadline, and I took upon myself to answer a few questions regarding NFL contracts and the salary cap that may have been on fans’ minds.

This week we know that Bowe and the Chiefs didn’t reach a multi-year deal. In the wake of this news it’s apparent that pretty much every fan knows that Bowe has the option to sit out the year or sign a contract to play the 2012 season, but there are a few questions/misunderstandings on the finer points that have cropped up in discussions across the web that could use some clarifying.

If Bowe opts to sit out this year, will he be penalized?

It depends on how you define “penalized.” The Exclusive Franchise Player tag means he can only sign a deal with the Chiefs to play this season*; however, it does not mean he is under contract. Not being under contract, Bowe should expect that by not playing football he won’t earn a paycheck, and probably doesn’t view it so much as a penalty as it is a necessary evil if he decides not to play. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play this season before the first regular season game, he’ll be due the entire sum of $9.5 million. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play after the first regular season game, the $9.5 million figure will be reduced proportionately. At no point would Bowe be expected to give up more than the amount of the franchise tender. So if you want to call it a penalty, just be aware that it’s more of a passive penalty than a proactive penalty. Basically, full play = full pay, partial play = partial pay & no play = no pay (there is no no play = no pay + additional penalties). Personally, refusing to give something to someone who has yet to earn it isn’t really a penalty in my book.

* The CBA expressly forbids the assignment or transferring of this exclusive negotiating right to another team**.

** Yes, this means that the rumor that Bowe was on the trading block during the Draft back in April is totally baseless, as Pioli and the FO would certainly have known that he couldn’t be traded.

If Bowe sits out the season, can he be franchised next year?

Yes. However, the CBA requires that such a tag be a Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag. Under such a tag, Bowe would be free to negotiate a deal with other teams, but the Chiefs would maintain a Right to First Refusal. In this scenario, if the Chiefs would elect to not match the other team’s offer they would have the right to be compensated with a first-round draft pick and a third-round draft pick in the upcoming draft.

What happens to the salary cap if Bowe decides to sit out the full season?

If by 3 p.m. (CST) on the first Tuesday after Week 10 of the regular season arrives, and Bowe is still not under contract, two things happen:

1)  Bowe will be prohibited from playing football for the remainder of the League year.

2)  The entire $9.5 million currently earmarked for Bowe through the franchise tag will be released back into the team’s available funds.

So, if Bowe doesn’t play this year, he doesn’t get any money, but the team doesn’t lose its money either (they’d get it back and could roll it over into next year’s cap if they so choose).

What can happen with the franchise tag if Bowe does play this season?

There would be no restrictions on the type of franchise tag (Exclusive Player or Non-Exclusive Player) that the Chiefs could use if Bowe plays under the tag this season. In this scenario, if the Chiefs extend Bowe the Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag and another team makes Bowe an offer the Chiefs don’t want to match, draft pick compensation would come to the tune of two first-round draft picks in the upcoming Draft.

The argument can be made, and I’m making it now, that if Baldwin, Breaston & Co. show enough progression to make Pioli comfortable with risking the loss of Bowe altogether, this may mean very great things for the future of our franchise. Yeah, we’d lose perhaps one of our greatest receivers in franchise history, but we’d be gaining much more ammunition for making a move towards one of the greater QBs coming out in the draft, and we wouldn’t quite be “trading the farm” like the ‘Skins did this year for RGIII. That’s a temptation that absolutely has to be considered, and I don’t think we should blame Pioli one bit for taking it into account (which I’m sure he has).

Are multi-year negotiations totally off the table until free agency begins next offseason?

No. Though it is off the table for the time being, the CBA allows negotiations for a multi-year contract to resume following the team’s final game of the regular season. So even if the franchise tag is unavailable for use on Bowe next year (i.e. if it’s being used on another player such as Albert or Dorsey) given the length of time between the playoffs and when free agency begins, Bowe and the Chiefs will have about two months to work out a long-term deal before other teams could begin negotiating with Bowe.

_____________

All-in-all, it looks like not signing Bowe to a long-term deal now is not the end of the world. In fact, between the compensatory picks we could potentially gain by letting Bowe go through a Non-Exclusive Franchise tag next season, and the compensatory picks we’ll get for the FA losses we incurred this season (Carr, Orton and the like), we’re looking at the possibility of having a MASSIVE draft next season, and I’m almost already salivating at the thought of what that could mean. We’re on the brink of greatness, Addicts, and one way or another Bowe will be a key component in how we get there: be it as a Chief, or a bargaining chip.

May 13, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs first round draft pick Dontari Poe (92, right) and defensive end Ethan Johnson (70) run drills with defensive line coach Anthony Pleasant at the Kansas City Chiefs practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

When considering the Chiefs’ choice to draft Dontari Poe, it’s hard for the average football fan to ignore his lack of college production, or the negative connotations of being labeled a “workout warrior.” One thing is clear, however: Poe’s lot in the NFL will be made, first and foremost, at the NT position. As we get closer to training camp (a/k/a the first time this year that our linemen can actually, you know, HIT one another), let’s take an in-depth look at Poe and the road ahead.

Romeo Crennel will be the first to point out that Poe did a whole lot of line jumping in college. It’s actually hard to recall if Poe ever lined up in the same “technique” in consecutive plays during his time in Memphis. As Poe’s college coaches and coordinators often played him at several spots throughout the line each and every game, the case could be made that this position jumping is the cause of Poe’s lack of college production. It may even be fair, to an extent, to at least allow some of Poe’s line jumping to account for his lack of college production… but while the tape shows the jumping, it also shows that Poe needs to work on and refine the technical skills (moves) needed by a defensive lineman.

Watching Poe’s tape, you may occasionally see an effective spin move or a well-executed stunt, but he seems to show signs of not having been entirely taught proper execution of the moves and/or which moves are most effectively used in which situations. DL moves other than spin moves and stunts include rip moves, swim moves, speed rushes, bull rushes, shucks and shivers.

From the NT position, the chance to use a spin move (at least effectively and without blowing your assignment) is slim to nil; such opportunities may arise, but not enough that this should be a focus for Poe early on in KC. The same can be said with a speed rush. Lining up head to head on a player (for NTs on the Center, this is often referred to as a “zero technique”), swim moves also carry their risks, as a swim move will bring the D-Lineman up a little higher, in turn allowing the blocker the opportunity to get squarely underneath the DL’s pads and win the leverage war. Stunts* are a more advanced technique and, while I’m sure Poe will eventually be taught and repped on these until he can perform them expertly, I don’t see him attempting these too often this year (at least in the earlier part) unless out of desperation or for the sake of “mixing it up” Crennel calls a play directing Poe to do so. Shucks and shivers are a little difficult to explain in writing, and are slightly more advanced than rips and bull rushes, so I won’t get into them too much now.

*”Stunt” as used here is not in reference to the two types of stunts as described here. Rather I’m referring to the “4-3 Stunt” as utilized and popularized by “Mean” Joe Greene, wherein the DT lines up at an angle and bull rushes the first OL he’s facing with the goal of driving that OL into his neighboring OL(s). The camera work on Poe’s infamous Tulane tape isn’t always at great angles for checking out Poe, but there’s one really good shot of Poe performing a well-executed, successful, Mean-Joe-Greene-style stunt. This happened in some of his other college games too, with the same promising result. In a 3-4, this won’t be the first thing on the coaching staff’s list of things to work on and perfect with Poe, but may come in handy down the line (think 2-4-5 in an obvious passing situation: with added coverage already downfield, if Poe’s able to take out 2-3 OL on his own, it would spell trouble for opposing QBs, especially with the likes of Hali, Houston & Berry on the field… and we’re not talking “taking out” 2-3 OL by being double-teamed or triple-teamed, in that scenario one could always break off to pick up a blitzer. No, we’re talking TAKING OUT as in 2-3 OL suddenly on their asses wondering “Who dat? Who dere?”). Look for this ability to be groomed in the longer term Evolution of Poe.

So, other moves aside, we’re left with the rip, and the bull rush … and our first expectation. Expect these moves to be the first technical skills that Romeo and DL Coach Anthony Pleasant drill into Dontari. How and why these moves work is simple to understand, and should be quick for Poe to pick up in that respect. Knowing when and how to execute these moves well will take time and repetition until the moves becomes more natural and fluid. Priority One in developing Poe will likely be to jump on the live-action thrill of drilling him in these moves.

As I believe most casual fans will know what a rip move is and why it’s used (thank you for making my job easier, EA Sports), I’ll spare going into those details.

A bull rush is also fairly common and self-explanatory, and while I won’t go into too much detail, it’s important to note that bull rushes should play to Poe’s advantage well and should (read: darn well better) become one of his earliest playing strengths. Poe’s size and strength give him an edge in bull rushing, but it’s also important not to gloss over some finer points in the technique in practice (which, given his size and strength, I suspect his Memphis coaches kinda relied on Poe getting by with those attributes alone and didn’t care to coach him more in depth). You can be big and strong in the NFL and still make only a small splash of impact if not taught how to use your size and strength to your advantage. With the bull rush in particular, size and strength could be a huge advantage, but it takes combining that size and strength with body positioning (coming up out of your stance, hand placement, getting low, etc.) to really start seeing great results. Coaches on varying levels may not allow some of their players to rep bull rushes in practice under the misguided notion that size and strength alone will be enough for a player to translate into good bull rushing talent come gameday. Not really. Coaches Crennel and Pleasant will know this, and they’ll be sure to rep and develop Poe into a player capable of making the most out of his bull rushing capabilities.

While teaching, drilling and repping Poe through these activities on the practice field, expect for Crennel and Pleasant to also be teaching him the mental aspects of the position in the film room: what assignments he’ll have in which plays, when to clog, when to penetrate, when move X is more likely to make your assignment, and when move Y is better, etc.

One thing to bear in mind is that “trench warfare” isn’t as rudimentary as it may appear (as if you haven’t gathered that from above). On either side of the ball, each lineman possesses his own strengths and weaknesses according to his physical attributes and technical skills which affect how he plays the game. When squaring off, it takes time to figure out your competitor’s nuances and adjust accordingly (an ongoing battle, as with each adjustment you make to your competitor, your competitor will adjust to deal with your adjustments).

So, Poe’s college stats weren’t too impressive, and his tape looks “average”? Consider this: Poe likely squared off with every offensive lineman Conference USA had to offer. And with each lineman, Poe had to learn new nuances and adjust accordingly, all while facing different blocking schemes at different techniques along the line with different defensive assignments… Altogether, it makes it hard for the common observer to tell what kind of player he’ll become.

So, Poe’s college stats don’t look special. He only appears to show “flashes” in his college tape. Know this: the difficulties and intricacies of line play are greater and more plentiful than meets the eye, and are largely unappreciated by the masses. But one thing’s for sure, with his rare physical attributes, AND the opportunity to line up and take most snaps at one position, AND squaring off against fewer competitors in a game, AND being under the guidance and tutelage of both Coaches Crennel and Pleasant, Poe is much more likely to succeed than to bust.

With the clock ticking closer to the franchise tag deadline, I figured I would take this opportunity to address a few aspects that most fans [read: people who don’t get paid for it] may find themselves wondering about these two.

Don’t all teams have the same salary cap?

Yes and no. The league sets a salary cap at the beginning of the league year (usually in late April/early March before free agency begins). This cap is for the season following the offseason and may be greater or lesser than the previous season’s salary cap (rarely is it exactly the same). This year’s salary cap is $120.6 million. Salary caps differ when teams conduct their business in certain ways, whether for better or worse. The new CBA allows for unused salary cap money to rollover between years. So teams may find themselves with more cap space than the league determined salary cap. Inversely, if a team violates any league rules or standards, their salary cap may be lessened for punitive reasons*. In both cases, teams wind up with what is referred to as their own “adjusted salary cap.”

*This most recently occurred with DAL and WAS for allocating large salary/bonus sums into the uncapped 2011 season. As penalty, these teams’ salary caps were artificially lowered for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and has-been/will-be distributed amongst 28 teams. Why 28? OAK & NO conducted their business in a similar manner but to a lesser extent, so rather than proactively punishing these two teams by removing cap space, the League passively punished them by just not including them in the redistribution process.

Who keeps track of adjusted salary caps?

A teams’ management is acutely aware of their cap number; however, the NFL must approve all contracts and bonuses and will reject any such deals that would exceed a team’s adjusted salary cap.

Do only player wages count towards the salary cap?

Yes. Wages paid to coaches, trainers, club staff, etc. do not apply towards the salary cap.

What “player wages” count towards the salary cap?

Simply speaking, wages include the player’s base salary, signing bonus, roster bonuses and any other bonuses or incentives.

What’s a player’s base salary?

It is what it sounds like. A base salary is determined in the negotiation process, and the salary is remitted to the player either weekly or bi-weekly (in equal portions) over the course of the NFL regular season. [Ex: A player has a base salary of $1.7 million and is paid weekly. The regular season consists of 17 weeks; so, the player would receive $100,000 in base salary each week of the regular season.]

There’s a lot of talk about signing bonuses: How do they work?

A signing bonus is at it sounds: a bonus earned by a player for signing a new contract or extension. The player receives the entire sum upfront, but the team may prorate the total over the course of up to five seasons, meaning that, for example, a $10 million signing bonus may be evenly distributed over five seasons so that the team’s salary cap only takes a hit of $2 million per season. Signing bonuses are guaranteed, meaning that if a player is traded or retires after receiving the bonus, the prorated costs stick around* (in talking salary caps, this is what is referred to as “dead money” as the team still has to pay towards a service they are no longer getting).

* A team may file a grievance if they give a player a huge signing bonus and he retires shortly thereafter without good reason. It’s called the “Barry Sanders Rule”, so guess who pulled that stunt?

What about roster bonuses?

Another common bonus, the roster bonus is earned if/when a player makes the 53-man roster in the regular season during the year in which the roster bonus is worked into a contract. The entire roster bonus affects the team’s salary cap for the season it is earned in and may not be spread over the course of several years such as the salary cap.

What other bonuses are there?

Other bonuses may include option bonuses and incentive bonuses. As these are slightly more complex and tougher to explain, and as we’re making “molehills” here, we’ll spare that discussion for another time.

Now, how does this relate to the Chiefs and Bowe?

The Chiefs reportedly have a little over $16.5 million remaining in their cap space. Though he hasn’t signed the tender, the $9.5 million offered to Bowe through the franchise tag has already been counted against the Chiefs’ cap space because it is money that has already been committed to a player (even though the player it’s committed to hasn’t officially accepted the offer yet). If Bowe does not sign a new deal and just signs the tender, the Chiefs’ reported cap of $16.5 million will not be affected. In simpler terms, the $9.5 million offered to Bowe in the form of a franchise tag is considered already spent and is not counted in the $16.5 million that the team reportedly has freely available. So, in theory, if the Chiefs offer Bowe a deal that he’ll accept, part of that deal could allow Bowe to be given as much money for the 2012 season as to cause a $24 million cap hit* for 2012 and it’d be permissible by the NFL for them to do so. It’d be crazy for them to do so (Fitz and Megatron don’t even cause that large of a hit in any given year), but the money’s there.

* Note: Poe remains unsigned… we can intelligently guess he’ll get the rookie minimum of $390,000 in base salary, like the other first-rounders who have been signed thus far, but we’re not sure what he’ll get in terms of signing bonus. Also this time of year, only the highest paid 51 players on the team count towards the cap… eventually the last two to make the 53 man roster will have to have their wages taken into consideration. A good rule of thumb here would be to deduce at least $2 million to cover these things. So, $16.5 million + $9.5 million – $2 million = $24 million.

So, Addicts, knowing what you know now, how do you think Pioli should approach the situation? How much money should Bowe be offered in a new contract, and how much should be counted against this season’s cap specifically? Keep in mind unused cap can be rolled over into next season, and we may have great use for it then, too *cough*QB*cough*.

Last week, I introduced Arrowhead Addict readers to Joe Landers’ approach to forecasting NFL success, or rather I should say the likelihood thereof, of a NFL draft prospect based on that prospect’s NFL Combine performance. I then used his methodology, first straight up, and then later factoring in a weight adjustment of my own, to assess the likelihood that the Chiefs first round draft pick, Dontari Poe, would be a successful player in the NFL.

To recap, Landers compiled physical attribute scores from 2005 to 2008 and developed peer averages for each attribute at each position. If a prospect performed above average at his position on a Combine metric, he scored an EPA (Exceeded Peer Average) which Landers uses an indicator of future NFL success. Landers’ primary definition of success was whether the prospect made first team in the 2008 season.

There was at least one reasoned criticism about what I did last week in analyzing Dontari Poe. In order to get more of what I felt would be an apples to apples comparison, I added my own tweak to Poe’s assessment by focusing only on Combine scores for DTs who weighed 330 lbs or more. For the record, Poe himself weighed in at 346 lbs and I felt, due to the laws of physics, it was important to make this distinction and try to draw a line somewhere because the prototypical, ideal nose tackle is generally in the 330 plus weight range. The criticism to my approach was that rather than focusing on weight, I should “redo” my analysis by compiling and correlating scores of true Nose Tackles rather than just DT “fatties” without regard to whether they played NT or 43DT. Two non-fatty NT examples were provided – Jay Ratliff (292 lbs) and Barry Cofield (304 lbs).

I’ll address this criticism first generally and then specifically.

To ignore weight as a factor is to ignore physics as a factor.  Because WRs, DBs, and to a lesser extent RBs and LBs, are typically at the lighter end of the NFL weight scale, they tend to be the fastest players on the field. At the other end of the weight scale are OL and DL “uglies” who tend to be the slowest of all players. The reason for this is simple physics. What’s more, a player who lacks speed, particularly linemen, can more than compensate for this with the right combination of power and quickness (noting that quickness is not the same as speed).

At a more specific level, not all NTs are created equal.  Jay Ratliff, for example, is not really used to anchor the middle, eat blockers, and/or collapse the pocket. Rather, he tries to use his combination of size and speed to slide through a gap and he typically comes in on passing downs for that purpose rather than play as a 3 down NT. Similarly, you will rarely see Barry Cofield, when he’s healthy, take on multiple blockers, and when he does, he routinely gets crushed.  In other words, neither of these guys are the type of NT that a guy like Romeo Crennel would want to feature in his 3-4 scheme. Dontari Poe, for his part, looks to possess an ideal combination of size and athleticism to ultimately be a 3 down NT.

Enough rehashing.  Ready for some more Landers-type assessment of our other draft picks?

Jeff Allen, OG*

Landers’ OG peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages:

Short Shuttle: 4.72 sec; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.84 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 28.45”; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 101”; 47% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.31 sec; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 25.34; 41% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

*  I say OG, rather than OT, because guard is the position that Allen is expected to play for the Chiefs. Besides, scoring EPAs at the OT position is more challenging than those at the OG position.

In the case of OGs, as was also the case with DTs, the most important test to score an EPA on is the 3 cone drill, wherein 2/3rds of 2008 1^st teamers did so within the 2005-2008 study period. Lander’s goes on to conclude the greatest correlation indicator for OG success is for a prospect to score an EPA on the 3 cone and then at least 3 EPAs beyond that.

Jeff Allen’s (6’4”, 307 lbs) Combine Numbers:

Short Shuttle: 4.9 sec

Three Cone: 8.01 sec

Vertical Jump: 27.5”

Broad Jump: 102”; EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.28 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 26; EPA

As you can see, while Allen scored 3 EPAs, he nevertheless undershot on the leading indicator, the 3 Cone drill. What I take away from this is that, statistically speaking, the likelihood of Allen becoming a starting OG is not as great as would the case had he scored at least .17 seconds better on the 3 cone. Whether Jeff Allen proves himself to be a statistical exception, and there are always are some, remains to be seen.

Next week, the Chiefs 3^rd round pick, OT Donald Stephenson.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you take away from this, Addicts? Does Joe Landers’ forecasting model raise any new questions for you about Allen’s future as a Chief? How soon, if at all, do you expect to see Jeff Allen replacing Ryan Lilja as a starter?

I’m quite certain that right about now most of you are getting pretty frothy about all the undrafted rookie free agents the Chiefs are looking at and/or signing so I’ll apologize up front if my offering today takes away from such unbridled excitement. Nevertheless, I am what I am and I do what I do.  So if you’ve been feeling a little neglected, perhaps even frustrated, as a result of going without my statistical emissions for awhile, today I render unto you an opportunity to once again revel in statistical bliss. Yep, the cold, hard, analytical world of Double D is back. Jones away.

What got me started on all this was a recommended reading link from Mike Tanier over at Football Outsiders. The name of the site is Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services. Maybe some of you are already familiar with the Ourlads folks but discovering it was all fresh to me. Long story short, on the home page of Ourlads I happened across a pdf link under the heading of “Relevance Of The Combine”, penned by Joe Landers back in 2009. Hmm, thought I.

In a nutshell, Landers compiled and studied combine results for all positions over a 4 year span, 2005 through 2008, to see whether, or to what degree, combine performance was an indicator of future success in the NFL.  His leading definition of success was whether the prospect played 1^st team during the 2008 season. What he determined, among other things and perhaps not surprisingly, is that certain measurables tend to be more important than others relative to each position.  For example, doing well in the 40 yard dash, broad jump, and vertical jump appear to be important for the wide receiver position as predictors of future NFL success.

The foundational element of Landers analysis was to calculate peer averages for each attribute test at each position. He then compared a prospect’s performance to the peer average for that position and simply came up with a metric he termed “Exceeded Peer Average” or EPA for short.  What he essentially learned was that, depending upon position, if a prospect landed in the right EPA bucket(s), and padded on enough extra EPAs in other, less important, attribute tests that the odds of that prospect making 1^st team were noticeably greater.

After wading through and understanding Landers’ analysis, the obvious next step for yours truly was of course to see how well the Chiefs’ 2012 draft class fared against their peers and what players to feel most hopeful about. Right?

Let’s begin with our #1 draft pick shall we?

At the DT position, Landers notes that there were 5 prospects who EPA’d in all 6 attribute tests for that position. In 2008, all 5 of those prospects were starters. Interestingly enough, DT turns out to be the only position where exceeding the peer average on all metrics for the position ultimately translated into a starting job.  

The rest of the breakdown goes like this:  12% of prospects with 5 EPAs started, 11% with 4 EPAs started, 12% with 3 EPAs started, 12% with 2 EPAs started, 14% with 1 EPAs started, and 11% with no EPAs started. All in all, short of scoring 6 EPAs, exceeding peer averages at the combine does not appear to be a very good indicator that a DT is likely to become a starter. Still, Landers goes on to note that the risk of bust decreases for DTs who score in the 3 to 5 EPA range, wherein the odds are fairly good for a prospect scoring in that range to at least be either 2 Deep or on the roster. Landers ultimately forecasts future success for a DT prospect to most likely involve an EPA in the 3 cone and in at least 4 other categories.

Using Landers numbers from his 2005 to 2008 dataset (which have probably changed moderately), the peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages for DTs were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.61 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.67 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 30.10”; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 106”; 52% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.11 sec; 61% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 26.43; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

From this, Landers surmised that an EPA score in the 3 Cone test appears to be the most important indicator of all for DTs wherein 65% of 2008 starters achieved the EPA level as prospects.  Not really too surprising given the need for quickness within close confines that is typically demanded by this position.

Okay so given all that, how did Dontari Poe score relative to his peers? Well, before I answer that question, I think it is probably important and fair to take into consideration that the average weight of a DT prospect is around 305 lbs wherein Poe weighed in at 346 lbs. In other words, Landers does not distinguish between the typically bigger NTs versus typically smaller 43 DTs. To paraphrase Sir Isaac Newton, gravity is such a drag. More on that later.

Dontari Poe’s results were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.56 sec; EPA

Three Cone: 7.9 sec

Vertical Jump: 29.5”

Broad Jump: 105”

Forty Yard Dash: 4.98 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 44; EPA

 In summary, Poe scored EPAs in 3 metrics, which Landers views as respectable, but came up a bit short in the most important of all, the 3 Cone Drill. So what can we take away from all this?

While it might add to our optimism to know that Dontari Poe exceeded peer averages on all 6 metrics, or at least on the 3 cone and 4 other categories, the reality is that Dontari Poe is a signficantly larger guy than the average member of his peer group. Put simply, he has about 40 extra pounds to lug around compared to the average DT. Think of it this way, strap an extra 40 pounds on your back, and see if you can run the three cone drill just as fast as you did without the extra weight.

Poe’s bigness couldn’t help but weigh on my thinking. Not satisfied that Poe’s numbers represented an apples to apples comparison, I decided I to look up recent combine scores of DTs, sorted by weight. Poe, at 346,is the 5^th heaviest DT to weigh in, being bested on the scales only by the likes of Ahmad Childress, Terrence Cody and Alameda Ta’amu. Scanning the names of other heavyweight contenders, you’ll also find names like Paul Soliai, Kenrick Ellis, Junior Siavii (oops), Haloti Ngata, BJ Raji, Jerrell Powe, and Phil Taylor. Ah, apples to apples.

Now, within this group, I found that Poe scored impressively well compared to the other apples. For example, Poe’s 3 cone time matched that of BJ Raji’s and exceeded, by .07 seconds, that of Haloti Ngata’s. I took this is a step further and averaged the 3 cone scores of all DTs weighing 330 lbs or more. The result? 8.00 secs. Using my own apples to apples, perhaps simplistic, comparison dataset, I unabashedly conclude that Dontari Poe also scored an EPA in the 3 cone drill for the Nose Tackle position.

That’s now makes 4 EPAs for Poe, for those keeping track.

DD’s Broad Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 100”. Chalk up another EPA for Poe. That’s 5.  

DD’s Vertical Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 25.76”. And there you go, another EPA for Poe, thus giving him a perfect score of 6 among his NT peers, at least by my reckoning.

Given Landers observation that all 5 DTs who attained a perfect score of 6 EPAs in his analysis ended up as 1^st teamers, I can’t help but feel a bit more optimistic about Poe’s future manning the interior of the Chiefs DL? Eventually anyway.

Seeing as how this post has gotten a bit lengthy, I’ll leave discussion of our remaining 2012 draft picks for future installment(s). Stay tuned, I promise you a surprise or two.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you think Addicts? Ready to be a Poe Boy now? 

There seems to be a lot of misconceptions and–dare I say–anger afloat concerning the Chiefs first round draft pick NT Dontari Poe. I think the biggest misconception in currency is that the only reason Dontari Poe got 1^st round attention is because he posted eye-popping combine numbers.  Put differently, because he performed so strongly in Indy, he was immediately labeled a “Workout Warrior,” and as a result, drew upon himself greater scrutiny, was assumed suspect for performing so well, and thus became increasingly relegated by many into the “destined to be a bust” category in typical knee-jerk, mob mentality fashion.

Please allow me to at least set the record straight on this one. Well before Dontari Poe made noise at the NFL Combine, the consensus view held that he was the best Nose Tackle prospect in this draft and almost universally assumed to be a 1st round draft candidate.  In other words, the Combine did not transform Dontari Poe into a 1st round pick. It merely underscored an already popular sentiment that Poe’s physical impressiveness (is that a word?) combined with his elite speed and athleticism all pointed to a well-founded belief that Poe possessed the right tools to be a dominating force in the NFL. In this respect at least, Poe is not unlike a lot of 1^st round prospects: either you believe or you don’t.

For the record, I had Poe as the Chiefs’ 1st round draft pick in the mock draft that I posted way back on March 15^th, well before the Combine.  I’m happy and proud to admit that I’ve been on the Poe bandwagon ever since and fully expect to see him develop into a very scary, disruptive force under the talented guidance of Romeo Crennel and co. Add to that with the fact that Crennel was absolutely gushing about landing Poe, which highly suggests to me that Romeo Crennel is going to make it his personal mission to see that Poe succeeds. To that end, I think we can all agree that Crennel is anything but an idiot when it comes to identifying defensive talent and especially when it comes to coaching defensive linemen. Crennel now has his guy, so I say let’s respect what RAC brings to the party and embrace this pick until given reason to feel otherwise.

Nose Tackle has been the most pressing need for the Chiefs defense ever since they converted to the 3-4 scheme. In my opinion, Poe’s size, strength, and quickness fit very closely to what you look for in a zero technique. I know it’s been said a million times over, but for this position, the ability to occupy multiple blockers and collapse the pocket is way more important than just racking up tackles and sacks. In other words: don’t let Dontari Poe’s lack of stats and lack of post-season recognitions convince you that he won’t be put in a position do exactly what he needs to do to make the Chiefs’ defense once again feared by all.

I also think that Crennel responded to the “lack of production” argument in a very direct and comprehensive way. He pointed out that Poe, while at Memphis, was asked to be a “jack of all trades,” essentially playing/covering all positions on the DL and was thus never really put into a position where he  could be the master of one. This simply confirms what I already believed about Poe’s college football experience. He worked under multiple coaches within an inferior, talent-deprived league without any kind of real support around him or meaningful guidance above him. The situation and opportunity for Poe has now taken a dramatic turn for the better. Have faith.

On a slightly different level, I also find this pick absolutely fascinating and it says a few things to me.

First off, Scott Pioli is not cut entirely of “game tape” cloth when it comes to the NFL draft, as many seem to believe.  On the surface at least, it would seem that in Poe’s case, that “game tape” was barely a consideration (unless position versatility became the deciding factor, but I rather doubt that to be the case). While one can find examples of Poe flashing greatness, there is not really some great body of work one can point to. Again, I have to go back to what I just I said – Pioli and Crennel’s evaluation suggest that they must see in him an Indy racer that, to date, has only been taken out in a quiet cul-de-sac by a student driver.

Secondly, whether you love it or hate it, this selection is anything but boring. It is, echoing the words of Big Matt, a “swing for the fences” approach by Pioli. I don’t see how anyone can’t help but love that. As much as I personally wanted Poe to be the selection, I didn’t actually think it would happen because I figured that despite Poe’s high upside, his apparent lack of college level production would ultimately dump him into Pioli’s “way too risky” bin. This pick now tells me that Pioli indeed has some real gambler in him; this pick, were it to fail, will no doubt put Pioli’s neck square on the chopping block.

Thirdly, Scott Pioli must really respect Romeo Crennel’s knowledge of the game, ability to develop talent and overall input when it comes to player assessment. I just have a hard time seeing this pick as happening without RAC saying, in a very large way, “that’s the one guy I want.” I am sure we’ll probably never know if, given the choice between Kuechly and Poe, which the Chiefs’ would have preferred, but Crennel’s enthusiastic response to this pick seems to suggest that Poe was quite likely the Chiefs’ number one target going in, at least as far as realistically obtainable players go.

Additional reflections on the draft so far:

I was really surprised to see 4 QBs taken in the first round, but I at least understand the reasoning behind those moves.

I was equally surprised to see only 4 WRs in the 1^st round. Back in March, because this position was far and away the most in need for teams around the league, I predicted that 6 would be off the board by the end of the 1^st round. Albeit the fact that 4 1^st rounds WRs is (I believe) more than we’ve seen in recent years, it is a(n upward) trend that I fully expect to see continue for the foreseeable future.

I’m really excited about our 2^nd round prospects. The available day two talent in this year’s draft seems quite good.  Moreover, round 2 seems like a can’t-miss opportunity for the Chiefs to upgrade the roster in a significant way.  Indeed, coming away with any of the following players, in no particular order would put a big smile on my face:

WR Stephen Hill

WR Reuben Randle

WR Mohammed Sanu

C/G Peter Konz

OT/G Cordy Glenn

G Amini Silatulo

CB Janoris Jenkins

TE Dwayne Allen

TE Coby Fleener

That’s my Double Take Addicts.

What’s your take?

I got to wondering the other day. Other than quarterback, which position, drafted in the first round, is most likely to provide dramatic improvement to a team in terms of immediate help as well as long term success?

Now it can be argued that Running Back is the next most important position after Quarterback but in terms of committing a first round pick on a RB, I find it difficult to overlook a few things in that consideration. First off, the average shelf of a starting RB is something like 3-4 years so long term team success through that position seems highly unlikely especially given that we’re talking about spending a 1^st round draft pick. Second, quality RBs, historically speaking, have been found all throughout the draft; not just the 1st round. Third, the NFL is increasingly becoming a passing league so the significance of the offensive run game is becoming a less prominent feature of the NFL’s evolution.

All that being said, I feel I should probably put this analysis into at least a little bit of context in terms of what the Chiefs might, should, or could do with their first pick in the upcoming draft. I consider it highly doubtful that the Chiefs would commit the #11 overall pick for either a RB or a QB … I could be wrong about that though. If for some reason Trent Richardson is still sitting there when we pick, I suppose it would be very tempting to take him but I imagine it would be a lot more tempting to trade that pick because no doubt there would be a lot of teams chomping at the bit to get their hands on a weapon of that caliber. I also believe that you don’t use the #11 pick on a QB who comes with very little experience and a lot of question marks, and is at best a development project. This is especially true if you’re a team that still has a little bit of infrastructure work yet to do.

So, I’m just going to assume that the Chiefs are not going to use the #11 pick on either a QB or a RB. That being the case, if I’m Scott Pioli looking to bring the most value to my team with a top 15 draft pick, I’m probably going to look at my roster and think in terms of both immediate and long term impact, hopefully identifying that one player most likely to bring solid football skills, a high level, high motor competitor, with leadership traits who can contribute on day one. Another, perhaps lesser, goal is to go with a pick that allows me the luxury of creating quality depth for an already solid roster . . . i.e., a talented, core player that can challenge another good player for the starting spot thus facilitating better talent in your depth.

Now I know I’ve said I would be most excited if the Chiefs selected Dontari Poe with the #11 pick and I haven’t wavered from that hope. I say this only because selecting Poe would signal to me that Pioli, Crennel, and the scouting department have done their homework and gotten a player they believe will transform our defense into a dominant, elite level for years to come. Nearly every major media scout and mock draft has Poe going in the top half of the draft so outside of AA, there remains a massive amount of respect for what Poe is capable of. However, for a variety of reasons, including those well articulated here on AA and elsewhere, I don’t honestly expect Poe to be the pick. It’s just a hope on my part that he is.

Barring a Poe “surprise” pick, I feel compelled to return to my original point about selecting a talented, competitive player, other than QB or RB, who can come in to play an important role for the team and who possesses the greatest potential to make a significant impact immediately and long term.  Barring a trade, a popular sentiment here at AA and among a lot of draft mockers, is that the Chiefs will respond to that challenge by selecting either OG David DeCastro or ILB Luke Kuechly. Each is regarded the consensus top rate talents at their respective positions and deservedly so.

Let’s first consider the importance of the guard position to the Chiefs in more or less general terms.

Now I’ll be the first to admit that the Chiefs interior OL has been extremely soft for many years now. As a matter of fact, I’ve been leading the charge and very vocal in pointing this fact out in many of my regular season DVOA weekly stat reviews. In other words, there is no question in my mind that the Chiefs would benefit significantly by upgrading the guard position. I would be actually pleased if that’s the direction the Chiefs took, even if it meant using a #11 overall pick for a “once-in-a-decade” guard like David DeCastro to do so.

Nevertheless before we start high fiving each other about using our first pick on a guard phenom, ask yourself this – just how important is the guard position in general terms and to the Chiefs in particular? In terms of positional value on any OL, I believe the order of importance goes Left Tackle, Right Tackle, then Center. Individual talent aside, guard sits a little lower on the totem pole relative to other positions.  What’s more, unlike say Left Tackle, Pro Bowl type guards can be found all throughout the draft, rounds 1 through 7 and even in free agency.  So it’s not like you can’t find a really good guard after the first round.

Another question that merits consideration is what kind of an offense are you? In the Chiefs case, we are decidedly a running team. Taking this a step further, one must ask exactly what kind of running team are you?

Well, with Jamaal Charles as the feature back, our backfield is not really set up to be a steady “downhill, between the tackles” attack but rather one that finds its greatest success when using Charles’ quickness to bounce outside the tackles where isolated linebackers and secondary must work to chase him down. To that end, I assert that having Eric Winston as our Right Tackle will have more of a positive impact for this particular team’s offense, not just in the running game, but also in the passing game, than would any rookie guard no matter how talented that guard might happen to be.

 So let’s at least acknowledge that while upgrading guard is an important need, it is probably not the biggest addressable need for the Chiefs, and all things being equal, a rather expensive way, committing a high 1^st round pick, towards that level of need. I mean I acknowledge that there is a somewhat romantic notion to the idea of possessing “the best” OL in the NFL by selecting David DeCastro but is that really a practical perspective to insist upon in the Chiefs’ case? Moreover, is David DeCastro the one and only means by which we upgrade the guard position through the draft? As if there will never, ever be another opportunity to do so? I highly doubt it; nay, I would argue that when it comes to the guard position, simply getting better is probably good enough for the Chiefs to succeed.

Moving on.

In putting this piece together, the thought crossed my mind that it might be interesting to look at what position, drafted in the first round, most commonly resulted in post season recognition via Player of the Year (POY) awards and also Rookie of the Year (ROY) awards. On offense, such awards (almost) invariably go to either a QB or a RB. On defense, while a bit more varied amongst roles, the dominant positional leader for those honors lies with linebackers.  

Since 1971, LB’s have been awarded DPOY 14 times, DE’s 9 times, DT’s 7 times, CB’s and S’s 5 times each.  However on the DROY front, going back to 1967, a LB has won it 23 times, a DE 8 times, a CB 6 times, and a DT times.  Note as well that 1^st round picks at each of these positions are well represented among post-season honors. In the case of LB’s in particular, they effectively comprise 18 of the 23 DROYs and 9 of the 14 DPOYs. 

Of the 14 LB’s who’ve won the DPOY, 4 times they led the overall #1 defense, 4 times led the #2 defense, 3 times led the #3 defense, and the remaining 3 playing for the #6, #7 and #13 ranked defenses.  Continuing, 5 of these LB DPOY honorees led their defenses to Superbowl Championships, 3 played in Conference Championship games, and the rest (excluding Lawrence Taylor during the playoff-less 1985 strike season) were on teams who experienced varying levels of post-season success.

See where I’m going?  I’ll spell it out anyway. I would argue that by taking a high quality LB in the first round, assuming history is any indication, the chances of you upgrading your defense significantly, immediately, and long term appear to be much greater than can be said for any other position on defense.

Now let’s talk specifically about the Chiefs for a minute and what ILB Luke Kuechly might bring to the table.  The Chiefs have the makings of a decent linebacking corps but by no means one that could be characterized as elite. Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson are established veterans of course and Justin Houston seemed to be flashing some promise towards the end of last season. ILB Jovan Belcher has developed into a pretty solid tackler but also lacks quickness and good ball instincts and is a real liability in the short passing game – an area of significant underachievement for the Chiefs. In short, Belcher is a good role player but really the weak link among the Chiefs linebacking corps. Belcher however is very valuable to the Chiefs as a depth player if his position can be upgraded. 

Lest we forget, the Chiefs gave up an average of 132 yards per game last year. Clearly, stopping the run remains a major area of concern for this team going into the 2012 season.

Luke Kuechly, for his part, is first and foremost a tackling machine, being #1 or #2 in the country, in solo tackles and total tackles for all of his 3 years at Boston College. Kuechly is a well seasoned defensive leader type with lots of tape and gawdy college stats who will likely contribute on day one, making him an immediate and certain upgrade over Belcher for an important area of concern with the Chiefs defense. His speed and ranginess, his nose for the ball, his elite tackling skills, his motor and work ethic all suggest he is the type of player who will serve as a major asset in the Chiefs effort to stop the run.  He is also very likely to be the type of player who could even challenge the likes of Derrick Johnson if push came to shove. Yes, I just said that.

Kuechly doesn’t just come with tape. At the combine, he impressed with 4.5-ish speed and a 38” vertical. Bottom line, he is both effective and athletic. There is a little doubt in my mind that he will be the defensive quarterback of whichever NFL team drafts him. I also expect him to be the kind of impact player one looks for early in the draft and a guy whose name that one can expect to see singled out and recognized when all is said and done.

On the downside, if Kuechly has any weakness, it’s in coverage particularly against RBs. He does seem to hold his own in zone coverage and against TE’s however. In any case, the Chiefs secondary, especially with the addition of Eric Berry, have gotten a lot better against the short pass. Besides, when it comes to linebacker coverage skills, I believe that has more to do with being in position – a skill that can be easily taught and developed through effective coaching. Again, the biggest ongoing weakness of the Chiefs defense has been stopping the run. Kuechly addresses that particular weakness, and more, in spades.

That’s my Double Take, Addicts.

If forced to choose between DeCastro and Kuechly, which player, at pick #11, makes the most sense to you and why?

Like the Weezer song in the title of this post, right now feels like a party atmosphere for the Kansas City sports scene (loving my Jayhawks unexpected trip to the New Orleans for instance . . . also digging how the Royals are showing some longterm potential for greatness). Most significantly, it’s an especially exciting time to be a Chiefs fan.

For me, as I’m sure is the case with many of us diehards, it’s been a long time since I felt this excited about an upcoming season. Among other things, the draft coverage here on AA this past week or so has been nothing short of outstanding in my opinion. Seems like every post is well thought out, well put together, and an absolute must read.

I’m excited about the return of Jamaal Charles and what that could mean to our offense. I’m excited about the return of Eric Berry and what that could mean to our defense. I’m excited to see what Romeo Crennel does with this team.

I’m excited about the growth and development of our roster. I’m excited about the addition of free agents Eric Winston (still pinching myself), Peyton Hillis (a guy I originally wanted us to draft),  Stanford Routt (yes I am enthused about this signing for a variety of reasons), and yes, Brady Quinn (I remember on draft day thinking  . . . oh my god this guy may actually fall to the Chiefs!).

I’m excited about Peyton Manning playing in the AFC West because that means we’ll get to face him twice a year . . . imagine the kind of gameday buzz that will generate at Arrowhead?

At this moment, I am particularly excited about the draft and to see how all that plays out. We’re actually seem to be at a place where we’re for once not desperate for this or that player but instead possess the ability to improve our roster in any number of different ways in the first round and beyond.  There are so many possibilities and every one of them seems incredibly positive.

If we draft DeCastro, we’ll have what promises to be one of the best OL’s in the league. If we draft Poe, it means Crennel and Pioli have thoroughly analyzed the guy and reached the conclusion that they got THE guy and by implication, somebody who they believe will be instrumental in taking our defense to the dominant level? If we draft Kuechly, we’ll most likely be looking at one of the best combo coverage/pressure linebacking corps in the league . . . for many years to come mind you. 

If we draft another pass rusher, so much the better!! I mean the possibilities boggle the imagination and not a one seems awful to me.  There’s the possibility we could even trade down and gain an extra early pick or two. How cool.

It’s also conceivable that we draft a high ceiling quarterback on the first day of the draft. As well, we’ll have the ability to add quality depth to our secondary if we want. We could land a promising receiver or tight end.  

Adding to our stable of running backs certainly seems like a strong possibility. And let’s not forget special teams either because you know there will be opportunities to upgrade our lackluster return game and coverage units on days two and three of the draft.

Once the draft is over, we can once again turn our attention to free agency.  There’s certainly some still intriguing names out there to consider depending on how the draft shakes out for us.  How about bringing one-time Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon into the qb competition mix? There’s also still guys like Sammie Lee Hill, guys who’s NFL careers may be on verge of greatness.

I’m not saying there’s not remaining areas of critical concern for this team, I’m just saying a lot of key pieces seem to be falling into place pretty nicely of late, our options and opportunities seem especially promising and overall the future looks bright.

That’s my Double Take.

Addicts, how do you feel about where this team is right now? What do you think our roster will end up looking like over the next couple of months? Who or what are you most looking forward to?

In case you missed it yesterday, Andrew Crocker put together some interesting and creative ideas about what the Chiefs could do with their #11 pick. I agree with much of what he had to say.  Among other things, without a doubt, NT and QB remain our two most pressing offseason needs. At this point, it does not appear that anything more will be done to address the QB situation which leaves us to consider what to do about that rather prominent hole in the heart of our defense?

The acquisition of Eric Winston, more than anything, provides the Chiefs with a nice bit of flexibility heading into the draft – never a bad thing.  The way things seem to be shaping up, we’ll go into the draft with Branden Abert, Ryan Lilja, Rodney Hudson, Jon Asamoah, and Eric Winston as our starting offensive line. While I’ve been as critical as anyone about the combination of Lilja and Wiegmann not getting it done in the running game, I nevertheless now feel pretty good about where things stand now with our offensive line, even with Lilja as our starting RG.  I would like, more than anything, to use this draft to add OL depth.

As promising as our OL situation now seems to be, the same really cannot be said about the state of our  defensive line. Resigning Amon Gordon was a necessary move but beyond that we’ve got both current and future problems that need to be addressed sooner rather than later.  For example, our current ability to defend in short yardage situations, particularly through the interior gaps, ranks near the bottom of the league according to Football Outsiders.  Considering Jerrell Powe came in for something like less than 10 snaps last season, I highly doubt he is anywhere close to being a significant consideration for the 2012 rotation.

Neither Glenn Dorsey nor Tyson Jackson have yet to wow anyone since being drafted. Moreover, twilight-of-their-career stop gaps such as Kelly Gregg have yet provide anything in the way of meaningful relief for our DL woes.  Assuming Dorsey and Jackson stick around for awhile (which is a big assumption considering the cost of their respective contracts), we still need to provide them with what most consider the centerpiece of a 34 defense before we can truly assess either . . . to wit, a quality nose tackle. Whether Dorsey and Jackson remain on as long term fixtures of the Chiefs defensive line is not as important as whether and how soon we really plug the gaping hole in the middle.  I feel that once that deficiency is properly addressed, we will see our defense undergo the transformation from that of “on-the-rise” to that of “arrived.”

For this reason, I am holding out hope that the Chiefs, either through free agency or through the draft this year, at long last secure the caliber of nose tackle that will put our defense into a position where they can considered to be among the league’s elite.  We now have all the pieces, save one.

All this leads up to the question of “what are our current options” for getting that kind of nose tackle? Let’s begin with free agency. Just because we missed out on Paul Soliai does not necessarily mean that viable options no longer exist on that front.

For me, four names stand out – Aubrayo Franklin, Shaun Rogers, Antonio Garay, and Samie Lee Hill.  Rogers will be 33 at the start of next season while Garay and Franklin will each be 32. Of these three, I like Franklin the best, but all, given their ages, should probably best be viewed as guys whose best years are behind them and thus stop gap solutions for the Chiefs. That leaves Samie Lee Hill, who at age 25, has some viable tread left on his tires.

Hill, at 25, is a 3 year veteran  and for me the most intriguing of the bunch.  He is a restricted free agent and considering the Lions seem to be pretty loaded with talented DTs, Detroit is probably looking to unload him for a draft pick. Even better, Hill comes as a guy that entered the NFL  just 3 years ago (and with that keep in mind that well worn cliché about learning curves for DTs) as a small school standout and has managed to develop into a pretty solid player who many feel still has additional upside. The biggest obstacle to Hill taking the next step is the fact that he currently plays second fiddle to Ndamukong Suh.

Okay Double D, that’s all well and fine but would a guy like this cost us? Well, how does a 4^th round pick sound because that’s Detroit’s asking price? In case anyone’s worried about us losing a 4^th round pick, here are a couple 4^th round picks that ought to refresh your memory as to just how valuable they are to the Chiefs-  Donald Washington and Jalil Brown. In the 2010 draft, the Chiefs did not even have a 4^th round pick, having traded it to Houston.

Although I’d probably be down with getting Aubrayo Franklin as a short term solution, my gut instinct is to do whatever it takes to make Sammie Lee Hill a Chief. And frankly “whatever it takes” is not gonna be all that much.

Next, let’s consider the draft for a minute. Each and every time the Chiefs have had an opportunity to get what appears to be a good Nose Tackle in the draft, I’ve been all over it. I strongly advocated taking BJ Raji with our #3 pick in 2009. I doubt I need to remind anyone here who we actually ended up with.  In the face of my advocacy of Raji, the objections on AA came fast and furious. Raji’s profile and draft stock was nitpicked to death on this blog and the popular sentiment seemed to be no way in hell he was worth the #3 pick and most likely a late 1^st rounder at best, if that.

Raji, of course, made an immediate impact his rookie year and is widely regarded as one of the top 3 Nose Tackles in the league.

Next came Terrence (“Mount”) Cody. In Cody’s case, I did not advocate taking him in the first round but certainly felt at the time that he was worth our 2^nd round “Tony Gonzalez” round pick that year.  That thought was also highly criticized and nit-picked on this very blog. Instead, we used our 2^nd round picks on Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas. Anyone who wouldn’t trade either of those picks for Terrence Cody right now ought to have their head examined.

Last year, for me, Phil Taylor was the guy we had to have.  That idea was once again nit-picked and lambasted by all the self-appointed draft experts on this blog. Instead, we traded away our #21 pick to Cleveland who in turn used it to take Taylor. The Chiefs ended up with leaving the 1^st round of 2011 with a Wide Receiver who so far seems incapable of escaping the jam at the line. Taylor’s rookie campaign saw him step in as a starting DT for the Browns . . . of course!

Now comes this year’s draft and once again we may have the opportunity to take an outstanding specimen of a Nose Tackle with our #11 pick. Mind you, this is a guy that just about every major and minor sports media outlet has on their big board lying somewhere between 10^th and 20^th best player of the draft overall. Check out just about any mock draft, and the consensus seems to be that he’ll either go the Panthers at #9, the Chiefs at #11, or the Eagles at #15.  I am of course referring to Combine standout Dontari Poe.

And invariably the nit-picking of this early round NT option has begun here at AA.  We’ve all heard them – workout warrior (as if that’s an automatic basis for disqualification), takes plays off (name one NFL DT/NT who doesn’t – there is a no more physically demanding job in the NFL), lack of awards and stats (did Memphis’ scheme put him in a position to rack up gawdy stats and accolades? Not really), blah, blah, blah. I’ll tell you this much – every opposing coach that faced Memphis has stated in no uncertain terms that they definitely had to scheme for Poe. Has it ever occurred to any of Poe’s detractors that maybe, just maybe, there wasn’t any real talent around Poe and as a result, he ended up getting all the attention? Just a thought.

Look, I’m gonna keep this as simple as possible. Poe is high on everyone’s draft boards because his size, his strength, his feet, all dictate that he looks to make a major impact in the NFL. Nevertheless, some suggest that the only reason he’s a first rounder is because of his combine performance. Not true. Going into the combine, Poe was just about everyone’s consensus favorite as the best NT of this year’s draft and generally regarded as 1^st rounder anyway. His combine performance merely confirmed what most everyone already suspected – he is indeed a beast.

Now do I think Poe is flawless? Hell no! Just like ANY 1st round pick, Poe has the potential to be a bust. I believe what Poe needs more than anything to really excel in the NFL is better technique. Technique is something that can be taught. Last I checked, Romeo Crennel still coaches for the Chiefs.

Are there other options in the draft? Yes, but none which I believe have the potential to make as huge or as immediate of an impact as Dontari Poe. For example, some say we should roll the dice with Alameda Ta’amu in the 2nd round. Based on, among other things, how Ta’amu was thoroughly manhandled by Phillip Blake (currently projected as a 3^rd or 4th round Center), I just don’ t see it. Every time he faced top level offenses, like, say Stanford’s, Ta’amu disappeared. Truth be know, Ta’amu will face a lot of top level offenses in the NFL.

There’s a couple other guys, late rounders, in the draft who pique my interest some but those are guys who have to be considered development projects. The Chiefs simply don’t have the luxury to develop a nose tackle and besides that’s kind why we took Jerrell Powe in the 6^th round anyway. In other words, we already kind of have that spot filled.

Let’s recap.

With Branden Albert, veteran guard Ryan Lilja, the addition of Eric Winston and the ongoing development of Hudson and Asamoah, the Chiefs offensive line is actually in pretty good shape right now. While a guy like DeCastro would probably make our OL that much better, our needs on the OL are nowhere near as pressing as those on the DL and it’s chronic inability to stuff the run and/or collapse the pocket.

If we go the free agency route, Sammie Lee Hill is the one guy I would have wearing Red and Yellow next season. His cost would be insignificant. With Hill set to wear a Chiefs uni, I would have zero qualms about taking David DeCastro with our #11 pick. I also wouldn’t have to worry about Carolina taking Poe ahead of us in the draft.

If Pioli fails to address our glaring hole at NT in some meaningful way through free agency, I think the ONLY option we have is to take Dontari Poe, assuming Carolina has not already done so. Poe, by all accounts, possesses all the physical requirements and all the upside one could ask for – he just needs the right coach and the right situation. Dontari Poe would find both in KC and our defense would prosper greatly from his presence.

That’s my Double Take Addicts.

How would you like to see the Chiefs address the need at Nose Tackle this offseason?

Tradeoffs (sigh).

I haven’t seen the 2011 charting stat numbers yet, but I can tell you that in 2010, Stanford Routt, when paired up with Nmandi Asomugha, was a top shelf pass defender. Football Outsiders, for example, ranked him with the 3rd highest success rate, with 66% of passes defended. Carr ranked 10th in that department with 61% of passes defended. In fact, both scored better than Brandon Flowers, for what it’s worth. Also worth noting is that Routt only gave up 5.7 yards per pass to Carr’s 7.1 yd/pass. Given all that, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to expect Routt’s production to parallel his 2010 situation playing alongside Flowers.

There are also rumors circulating in the media that Routt was somebody for whom Romeo Crennel actively lobbied. If true, I think that’s also pretty significant in terms of scheme fit. For a really well-written, compelling look into the player we’re getting in Stanford Routt, I recommend Doug Farrar’s (Yahoo! Sports) recent piece on him. Long story short, I personally feel this is a really good signing no matter how you slice it.

Now that Routt is inked, it seems that the popular assumption, or expectation if you will, is that all this means is that Pioli got himself a guy with skills very comparable to those of Carr for what we think could be 2 or 3 million less per year. Cynically put, Pioli avoided some unnecessary negotation stress by landing a comparable replacement for Carr who, oh by the way, just so happens to be cheaper to pay. Given that, one is then further tempted to think that the safe, conservative move now is to simply franchise Bowe and let Carr walk. CB dilemma solved, franchise tag dilemma solved, all good.

Well guess what? I’m going to go against the grain and offer an even better strategy. Scotty, I hope you’re reading this (I also hope that after reading this, you’ll finally start responding to those thousands of suggestion letters I’ve sent you dammit!).

Bowe, while inconsistent at times, has shown the potential to be a gamechanger. That’s worth something in the NFL. I think he can also be considered a foundational player for the Chiefs. Also worth something. Still, I believe that Bowe, rather than being tagged, ought to be locked up into a long-term deal before free agency hits. Unless you’re planning to shop him– in and of itself a risky strategy on many fronts– I see no reason not to just sign him to a comfortable, reasonable, market value contract.

So why no tag for Bowe you ask? Well, first off because if you really want him, and you’ve come up with a good backup plan for Carr, then there’s really no reason whatsoever for not focusing all of your attention and energy on getting a deal done to make Bowe’s long-term presence as a Chief into reality. Not just that, but doesn’t it also help to further underscore that whole PR pledgy thingy to develop and retain core players?

As promising and exciting and foundational as Bowe might seem, it is also important to recognize that he simply has not proven himself to be among of the 5 best receivers in the league which, in a certain sense, is what the franchise tag kind of suggests. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the 12th best WR going into 2012 and 19th best among their Dynasty Rankings. Similarly, Football Outsiders ranked Bowe 51st in DVOA and 31st in DYAR for 2011. Not exactly what you’d call eye-popping production.

We all know that Bowe every once in awhile makes for some fun highlight reel footage, but does he honestly merit franchise tag money? Especially when you’re most likely not going to find many teams willing to exchange a high value pick for him? I think you see my point. Bottom line, paying Bowe like he’s a top 5 WR really doesn’t sound all that Clark-like to me. Lest we forget, Bowe was a 1st round draft pick– just how likely is it that we can get that for him now? ROI people, ROI.

Moving on, if Pioli can sign Bowe to a long-term deal before free agency hits, he’ll still have a franchise tag at his disposal, right? Well, please tell me then what would be the folly in using that tag on Carr? In fact, franchising Carr seems to me like the best of all possible moves at this point and I’m going to offer some reasons as to why that is so.

It’s a proverbial seller’s market for top tier CBs and this year is no different. Justifiable or not, Carr is almost certain to command an elite CB level of monetary respect out on the open market. What’s more, it seems there could be some healthy competition for a CB of Carr’s caliber. I can think of at least a couple of teams out there that are desperately needing major secondary talent who, oh by the way, also happen to have some pretty interesting draft pick horsepower to make a lucrative deal happen for the Chiefs. For example, both the Patriots and the Bengals are in need of quality CB help and both are holding on to spare 1st round picks. Just imagine all of the tantalizing draft possibilities that would suddenly open up for the Chiefs if that were to happen?

Move up and get a franchise QB? Check.
Pick up a couple of first round offensive linemen? Check.
Control the draft by moving down? Check.

So you say, “well Double D, suppose nobody is willing to pony up a high draft pick for Carr? Aren’t you then stuck with an overpaid secondary that you’re underutilizing most of the time because, well, as everybody knows, you really only need 2 good corners? Very, very risky. Very expensive (i.e., unClark-like). Not good. Or as my AA colleague Big Matt might say ‘Mattie no likey.’”

Not good? How about not so fast?

Merlin and I were texting back and forth on this whole deal the other day and he brought to my attention a pretty interesting fact of which I was previously unaware. To wit, an NFL nickel plays about 50% of all snaps currently. That is a lot. On top of that, the more success you have at containing teams on 1st down, the more likely it is that you’ll see the nickel utilized on successive downs. In fact, I think with the right personnel, a pretty compelling argument can be made for having the nickel formation as your base D.

When I think of Flowers, Carr, and Routt being on the field all at the same time, I start thinking “two’s company, but hey, three’s a party!” Arenas might excel at wrapping up receivers pretty quickly after the catch but he’s not exactly setting the world on fire when it comes to preventing that catch from happening in the first place. Just sayin.

As many on the message boards here have already suggested, the Routt signing may indeed turn out to be a very forward thinking approach on the part of Crennel and Pioli. In fact, passing against a defensive backfield comprised primarily of Flowers, Carr and Routt would be close to impossible. In this increasingly pass-friendly league, I have to think that that level of secondary presence would basically relegate opposing offenses to beating you with their running game, and maybe tossing in a few dink and dunks for good measure (which painfully brings to mind a certain low-scoring, rather flaccid offense with which I happen to be pretty familiar).

The only practical alternative to going with the run would be to simultaneously risk a lot of coverage sacks. Unless your QB can progress through his reads quickly and also get rid of the ball in a hurry, you’re gonna be in a heap of trouble. If a team goes run, we’ll have DJ, Berry, and perhaps Belcher up in there to contain it. If a team opts to pass, their dealing with a DB set of Flowers, Routt, Carr, and Berry with maybe DJ in coverage while Hali & Houston, along with either an ILB, S, or CB, are all breathing fire in your backfield.

Next– just stay with me here– we grab a very gettable guy in the form of one Paul Soliai as our NT. Tell me, how can that cannot be considered a run stuffing, block eating, shutdown, ballhawking, nightmare defense?

So, armed on defense, we head into the draft to start filling holes on offense.

Final (crazy?) thought. While neither has any experience at the position (at least none of which I’m aware), both Carr and Routt possess prototypical size and speed to play Safety, Routt perhaps moreso because of his physicality. Might this signing, combined with the retention Carr, offer more options and much needed depth at that position as well? I know, stupid idea, probably makes more sense to just plug Sabby Piscatelli whenever the need arises, right? I’m sure we’ll be just fine should Eric Berry happen to miss any games.

That’s my Double Take.

Sound off Addicts!

Yes, I know the Patriots lost, but if the Chiefs truly are going to follow the Patriots Way, then there was a lot of positive to take from New England’s performance last Sunday.

It’s no secret to anyone that the success from the Patriots offense has come from their ability to scheme things brilliantly and create massive matchup problems for opposing defenses. They do this through flexible personnel groupings and versatile players in ways that I think KC can emulate.

In the end, the biggest difference of the night was the absence of Rob Gronkowski. Sure, he was there, but the second-year tight end, who was good for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns during the regular season, was obviously a step or two slower with an injured ankle. Aaron Hernandez was New England’s best weapon of the night with 8 catches and a touchdown.

The good news is that the Chiefs’ Gronkowski is coming back this year. Moeaki and Gronkowski had very similar stats in their rookie years (although Gronk pulled down more TDs), and their skills are comparable. Both guys are great route runners, have big, reliable hands and are also good blockers. I think Moeaki is going to have a colossal season in 2012. The guy the Chiefs don’t have is a Hernandez type. Hernandez is not as physical, but is faster and has the reach to be a threat along the sidelines. Even while covered by Michael Boley, the Giant’s best cover linebacker, Hernandez was about to consistently move the chains for them.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

I think the Chiefs were hoping Leonard Pope could be that guy, unfortunately he just doesn’t have the speed or football smarts to make it happen. Especially given that he was part of Haley’s entourage that was brought over from Arizona, I think his days in red are numbered.

I definitely think the Chiefs should go for a mid-round TE in this year’s draft. Crock brilliantly broke down the class this year, and I think a guy like Orson Charles or Ladarius Green should be on the KC’s draft board. We need a guy who may not be the best pass blocker, but who causes opposing defenses to scratch their head about what personnel they send out on the field. With a running game as prolific as we will have once Jamaal Charles is back, getting our opponents to think pass when we have two TEs on the field will be a very, very good thing for us.

Another thing that the Patriots whipped out at times this year was creative use of their rookie tackle, Nate Solder. Against the Chiefs, they played Solder at tight end and fullback numerous times to punishing success. BenJarvus Green-Ellis had his second best game of the year on just 20 carries. How many of you out there would like to see David DeCastro or Jonathan Martin mowing down the Raider’s linebacking corps ahead of Jamaal? I would.

Speaking of Green-Ellis, he’s a free agent this year and there’s talk that the Pats aren’t likely take him back. At 26, he could be a long-term third-down running back for the Chiefs. Like Charles, he’s got some elusiveness but he’s also got about 20 lbs on Jamaal, and is able to fight for short yardage a bit better than him.

Another free agent that has been key to the Patriots’ success is Wes Welker. While he usually doesn’t produce flashy big-gainers (his longest catch of 2010 was for 35 yards), he is unstoppable as a guy who catches the ball for 4 yards and gets 3 more after the catch every single time. He had an amazing 77 catches for first downs in 2011. When the Chiefs drafted Dexter McCluster, I think they intended him to grow into Welker’s role, but that hasn’t exactly happened. McCluster is more of a Danny Woodhead guy – the little speedster that can do the most damage coming out of the backfield in a variety of ways. I know you’ve heard me criticize a lot of the signings Pioli has made for targeting older dudes, but this is a signing that I think would make sense for the Chiefs.

With Welker and two pass-threat TEs there is a lot more that the Chiefs could do in the short and mid-range passing game. There’s a reason why Matt Cassel and Tom Brady don’t chuck it down the field very often – they’re not very good at it. When Cassel has short-range options (and time to throw), he has been very efficient. Assuming Welker only has a few productive years left, the Chiefs won’t be risking much by throwing some money at him – God forbid he take a roster spot for Jerheme Urban.

Now, you might say that taking on Welker would automatically alter the Chiefs’ offensive philosophy in ways they aren’t built to handle – their current passing game is built to feature two large, down-field WRs in Dwayne Bowe and Jonathan Baldwin – but I think this gets to one of the Chiefs’ biggest weaknesses in 2011. The way the Chiefs are currently assembled, their gameplan is extremely fragile. If either Bowe or Charles get taken out of the game – due to injury or effective defense – their hands are tied. When both are down, KC is absolutely screwed.

Also, at 31, I think Welker is at the point in his career where Belichick classically lets him move on. In his almost pathological fixation on hoarding resources for the future, the man in the hoodie always lets his stars walk when they become truly expensive in their thirties (Brady being the obvious exception). Meanwhile, the Chiefs have somewhere between $20-27 million in cap space, plus the carry-over from last season. Therefore, the Chiefs could potentially spend around 40 percent more on players this season.

The franchise tag numbers for wide receivers and cornerbacks are $9.4 million and $10.6 million, respectively. Meaning that to franchise either Bowe or Carr and sign the other to a long-term deal, the Chiefs will likely end up spending somewhere in the neighborhood of $17 million for the 2012 season. That leaves at least $23 million to play with.

The Chiefs’ 2012 draft picks won’t cost them more than about $10 million total for the season, so with (again, at least) $13 million left in the bank, the Chiefs can afford luxury experiments like Wes Welker.

If we’re going to go Patriots, we might as well do it right.

I’ve been living in Europe for several years now, and while I haven’t brought myself to becoming a full-fledged soccer fan, I do appreciate that fans of the sport get to watch the game all year. With so many overlapping leagues and looser management rules, there is literally always something to talk about in global soccer, and on any given day when you want to watch a game, all you just have to flip on the tube.

That said, I have a secret love for the NFL offseason – at least this stage of it. By summer, the cold sweats of football withdrawal set in, but the period from the end of the regular season until the weeks following the draft is a few months of cool. There are endless hypothetical conversations to be had, revisionist retrospection on the year past and every team’s fan base is somehow imbued in the optimism that “next year we’ll be better.” Statistically speaking, only about half are right.

To kick off this process I want to start the conversation by looking simply at what we were bad at last year, and the options on the table for fixing them. It’ll be a long time before we have more actual football to breakdown so I’ll be looking at each of these particular issues individually and in detail in the weeks to come. For now, these are my general thoughts, after the jump. (more…)

Thanks to what appeared to be some really solid defense, plus a little magic and luck, the Chiefs snuck out of Soldier Field with a surprising and close win over the Bears.

The Chiefs offense, under the iffy guidance of play-caller Todd Haley, QB Tyler Palko’s* arm, the running prowess of Thom Thumb, occasionally seasoned with a dash of McCluster and a splash of Battle, somehow did not give the game away.
*I can’t quite put a “finger” on when, but I thought I might have caught a fleeting glimpse of $2.3 million Kyle Orton in the game ever so briefly. Did anybody else see that – if you blinked you probably missed it.

That defense now. That right there was something special. Justin Houston what!? Those linebackers – something good’s beginning to form there, now isn’t it?

Curious to know how just how much, if at all, this game changed Football Outsiders’ analytic opinion of the Chiefs?

You’ll get your answers, son – beyond the break.

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In poll after poll, Chiefs fans have blamed Haley and the coaches for the last two weeks’ disastrous games. In addition to his hobo beard failing us, the Chiefs have come out flat on both sides of the ball, unable to stop defenses and too inept to get things going on offense – or at least nullifying their good work with penalties when lightning did strike.

However, if there is someone to blame, I don’t think it is Haley. Although he has undoubtedly made mistakes – the nursing-home-paced training camp, and a series of questionable play calls – I do still think he has mostly gotten the best out of what he has to work with.

Cassel has also gotten a lot of flak for his performance, and again, much of it is deserved. As it stands now, Cassel’s season stats are – and may end up permanently being – 10 TD, 9 INT, CMP% 59.5, RAT 76.6. He has had his moments, but essentially has shown that he can’t put the team on his shoulders when the run game is ineffective. I have long made my opinion known that he is a pretty much the definition of a mediocre quarterback. He can manage the game well with play-action passes and has the arm to hit a few strikes a game as long as the defense is biting on the run. But, if it’s all left to him, he will sputter. Still, he’s not the person to blame for our perpetual woes this season.

I’ll tell you who the culprit is after the jump: (more…)

So. The Chiefs handily put away another struggling team, this time on the road in a place we’ve never won before. Just on the surface, based on what we know so far, the Chiefs have proven they can beat weak teams but they have yet this season to prove they can beat teams that are playing strong.

Where does that leave us? Are we now a better team than we were after week 3 simply because our record is better? Or are we the same team as the one that stood at 0-3 and merely benefitting from a brief creampuff stretch in the schedule? Or, perish the thought, are we worse than we were two weeks ago, record schmecord?

Once again, we’ll peer into that beautiful mind that is statistical analysis, courtesy Football Outsiders and try to gain a little insight into whether the Chiefs are showing significant signs of improvement. Or not.

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After much anticipation and anxious clamoring, I return this week with my regular season mainstay. That’s right, Double D’s Double Take on just how well, or poorly, the Chiefs are performing in key areas, courtesy of Football Outsider’s DVOA analysis.

For those of you unfamiliar with the DVOA ranking methodology, I’ll simply provide, after the jump, the same rundown that I gave last year. If you are interested in a more detailed (and perhaps more useful) explanation, go here.

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