We’ll begin this week’s edition of Pressure Points by pointing out that the Chargers, up until being manhandled by the Falcons, were (statistically speaking) regarded by Football Outsiders as among the league’s most the solid, well-rounded teams. As of week 2, FO had them as the 10th most efficient overall, 11th most efficient on offense, 12th most efficient on defense, and 12th most efficient on special teams.  As a result of their performance last Sunday, the Chargers now rank 22nd in overall efficiency, 21st on offense, 20th on defense, and 10th at special teams. I have little doubt that the Chargers are unhappy with how they played against the Falcons and will be seeking to rebound and re-establish themselves as a well-rounded, quality team this Sunday.

Because the overall focus of these articles is to draw attention to potential soft spots of our upcoming opponents, let’s also take a moment to consider the Chargers 2-1 record and how they arrived there. More specifically, how strong was the Chargers start of the season? Well, if you consider the strengths/weaknesses of their first two opponents, I suppose one might reasonably question how much they actually accomplished by beating the Raiders and the Titans. As of week 2, Football Outsiders ranked Tennessee 31st on offense, 28th on defense, and 13th on special teams. The Raiders, as of week 2, were 15th on offense, 25th on defense, and 32nd on special teams.

Now before you jump to the conclusion that the Chargers’ first two wins are entirely attributable to the fact that they faced weak teams only to be exposed in week 3 by what appears to be a very strong team, let’s not overlook the 800 lb gorilla in the room. In spite of a feel-good, rallying win over an 0-3 Saints team, Football Outsiders nevertheless ranks the Chiefs 32nd in overall efficiency, 24th in offensive efficiency, 30th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in special teams efficiency. In other words, as things currently stand, the Chiefs appear to be exactly the kind of team that the Chargers have enjoyed success against. To put it bluntly, in almost every aspect of their game, the Chiefs must either improve immediately or face a season of disappointment, humiliation, well deserved criticism and dashed expectations.

Capiche?

With all that out of way, we’ll begin this by focusing on Phillip Rivers. Three games into the season, FO ranks Rivers 20th in both DYAR and DVOA. Rivers QBR is the 15th best in the league. His TD/INT ratio is 4/3, he owns a  67% completion rate and he’s so far thrown 109 passes for 664 yards.

In this instance, I feel it helps to add a little perspective. As of right now, Matt Cassel is 25th in both DYAR and DVOA, and 16th in QBR. Cassel’s TD/INT ratio is 3/3. He has a 60% completion rate and has thrown 128 passes for 738 yards.

Put simply, 3 weeks in, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest that Rivers is putting up somewhat pedestrian numbers and perhaps the Chiefs ought to consider his presence as something  manageable… as long as they step up and do their jobs that is. As we’ve seen in past years, the best way to manage Phillips is to harass him because that’s when he’s most likely to start making mistakes. Whether the Chiefs are up to that task remains to be seen.

Examining the Chargers’ Offensive Line stats, we see that they currently rank 13th most efficient in pass protection; so, if past performance is any indicator, hassling Rivers won’t be particularly easy. As far as the run game goes, the Chargers, while 20th overall, are the 25th at the 2nd level (5 – 10 yards). They do however rank highly in short yardage situations, so keeping them 3rd and long as much as possible should probably be a key objective for the Chiefs. As far as lanes and gaps are concerned, the Chargers have been very effective (6th best) when they run between the guards but, everywhere else, they rank in the bottom half of the league.

Definitely also worth noting here is that the Chargers starting left tackle is a rookie free agent, Michael Harris, who’s filling in for Jared Gaither, who missed nearly all of training camp and the first three games due to a lingering back problem. He did, however, suit up for practice this week so whether or not he is ready to go for Sunday remains to be seen. I’m guessing Gaither will not be 100% and most likely not starting if he suits up.

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers are below average in a number of areas based on Football Outsiders’ stats. They are 20th against the pass. Their defensive line ranks 27th in beating pass protection. They rank 29th against #1WRs, 24th against passes to RBs, and 18th against “other (e.g., slot) WRs.” If Cassel can be protected and is accurate, there may be opportunities to find success with the likes of Bowe, McCluster, Charles and perhaps even Copper in the passing game.

While 5th overall in defensing the run, the Chargers nevertheless appear to have some exposure against the run. For example, they rank 32nd against power running and are 20th in stuffs. Their weakest spots on the line appear to be the B gaps, where they are 27th on the left side and 21st on the right. Interesting enough, it also appears that their apparent vulnerability on the left side has not been well tested by opposing offenses. The league average attempts to the left B gap is 14% of carries while the Chargers have so far only dealt with their opponents targetting that gap at a 10% rate.

To summarize, on offense, the Chargers main vulnerabilities appear to be: 1) a quarterback with a tendency to make mistakes when pressured, 2) running outside the guards, 3) getting to the second level, and 4) left tackle. On defense, the Chargers appear to be vulnerable against 1) #1 WRs, 2) passes to RBs and “other WRs, ” and 3) runs that target the B gaps, particularly the left B gap.

Those are the Chargers’ pressure points. Addicts, let’s hear your thoughts on what the Chiefs need to do to beat the Chargers.

After flopping badly in their debut performance, the Kansas City Chiefs proceed to take this show on the road. First whistle stop, upstate New York.

I’ll begin this with some generalizations about the Buffalo Bills, and then get into some of the finer details. Like the Chiefs, the 2011 Bills suffered some key injuries that in large part helped derail what looked to be an otherwise promising season. After a strong start and talk of playoff contention, the Bills literally fell apart on the back nine, going 1-8 down the stretch. The 2011 IR casualties included star running back Fred Jackson, NT Kyle Williams, C Erik Wood, NT Terrell Troup, WR Marcus Easley, slot WR Roscoe Parrish, and pass rushing specialist Shawne Merriman. Reportedly Ryan Fitzpatrick also played out the season with a couple of bad ribs after Week 8, the point after which they went 1-8.

Another generalization about the Bills is that they are led by what is widely considered an average QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick. With the right pieces around him, Fitzpatrick can be an efficient game manager. However the popular opinion is that he is not the kind of QB who can typically put his team on his back and win.  Come to think of it, one might reasonably compare Fitz to . . . nah, too easy.

The Bills ranked 19th in passing offense efficiency for 2011 according to Football Outsiders. Aside from Fitz’ pedestrian skills as a signal caller, the Bills were also pretty limited in receiver talent and depth. As far as running the ball goes, the Bills were 2011′s 8th most efficient rushing offense, again referencing Football Outsiders’ “Defense-adjusted Value Over Average” statistical assessment.

Breaking down the Bills 2011 offense even further, we discover that Football Outsiders ranked their offensive line in the top half of the league in most categories. To wit, they ranked 12th most efficient in overall run blocking and tops overall in pass protection.  In the run game, the Bills OL were seventh best at power running, 14th best at avoiding stuffs, ninth best for second level runs, and second best in open field blocking. Along the lanes and gaps, they came in 10th, 20th, 11th, 30th, and second for runs outside the LE, inside LT, M/G, and RT, and outside RE respectively.

Now for the Bills’ offensive pressure points.

Looking at the offensive skill positions, the Bills feature CJ Spiller in the backfield, Stevie Johnson at WR, and TE Scott Chandler. Beyond those three, there does not appear to be much in the cupboard. Unfortunately for the Bills when they face the Chiefs, they will be lacking the services of their best offensive weapon, RB Fred Jackson, who is out with a right knee injury. Jackson is expected to miss the first 3 weeks of the season.

If things weren’t already bad enough, #2 WR David Nelson is on IR after tearing his ACL in the game against the Jets; #1 WR Johnson, hampered by a lingering groin injury, is listed as probable against the Chiefs.

Three words come to mind in characterizing the current state of the Bills’ offensive firepower: Thin, thin, and thin. Short translation, to make this thing go, it will largely be upon Ryan Fitzpatrick to transform himself from a game manager into a field general. That, in turn, begs the question, does Fitz have enough other pieces around him to facilitate said transformation?

The situation in the trenches can be sized up as follows  – extremely solid on the interior but a little suspect at the edges. For example, at left tackle, formerly manned by Demetress Bell, is now the job of rookie Cordy Glenn while the right tackle spot continues to be occupied by veteran Erik Pears. It seems also worth noting that in spite of the fact that Fitzpatrick apparently enjoyed the best pass protection in the league last season, the Bills could only muster a 19th ranking in passing efficiency. That seems to suggest either an indictment of Fitz’ skills as a passer or a lack of quality receivers. Maybe both?

Verdict on the OL - Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blind side protection will and should be tested often this season. Going back to an earlier point, the Bills struggled on runs through the right B gap. That perhaps suggests that Pears, while effective at sealing off the end, and protecting against edge rushers, is nevertheless susceptible to getting overwhelmed with activity that goes inside, to his left. In other words, that right B gap seems like it might be a soft spot for, say, DJ or a safety blitz to make a sack or TFL.

Now for the defensive side of the ball. In 2011, the Bills struggled in just about every facet of defense. Football Outsiders ranked them 28th in efficiency defensing the run and 25th in pass rushing efficiency. Matchups with specific receivers had them 22nd against #1 WRs, 29th against #2 WRs, 1st against “other WRs,” 22nd against TEs, and 20th against RBs.

Much of the 2011 Bills’ struggles in defensing  the pass can be attributed their lack of a pass rush. The Bills clearly recognized this flaw during the offseason, got serious about it, and acquired two DEs in free agency, Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.  One would expect that the Williams acquisition alone should pay immediate dividends in this department.

Football Outsiders ranked 2011 Bills DL 28th overall against the run. At the granular level, they were 14th in efficiency against power running, 32nd in stuffs, 21st in defending at the 2nd level, and 24th against open field rushing.

The return of NT Kyle Williams ought to also be a big boost to the Bills defense, both in stopping the run, and in helping to facilitate a better pass rush. DT Marcell Dareus will be in his second year and can be expected to elevate his game as well. Generally speaking, 2012 should see a much improved defensive line for the Bills.

Other than WLB Kevin Barnett, the Bills the linebacking corps appears to be kind of a work in progress, with SLB Arthur Moats in his 3rd year, and MLB Kelvin Sheppard in his second year.

It is difficult to fairly assess the Bills secondary in light of the defense’s general inability to get the passer last season, but they should, at the very worst, be considered at least average (but also inexperienced, yet possibly improving).  For instance, I would consider Jairus Byrd as among the better safeties in the league. Byrd’s counterpart, George Wilson, on the other hand, seems to me to be a bit suspect.

To shore themselves up at corner, the Bills used their first draft pick on Stephon Gilmore, who has been given a starting role (also noting here that he got roundly schooled by the Jets last Sunday). Playing opposite Gilmore is second-year man Aaron Williams. Like I said, inexperienced but presumably improving. What the Bills do possess in their secondary is quality veteran depth in the likes of Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee.

It will be particularly interesting to see to what extent the Bills’ offseason acquisitions — pass rushers Williams and Anderson, along with the return of Kyle Williams — improve this unit over what we saw last season.

Lastly, the Bills ranked 24th in special teams efficiency.

To recap their weaknesses, I tend to view the Bills offense as somewhat lacking in necessary QB skills, thin with firepower, and very suspect at the left tackle position. On defense, the Bills corners are inexperienced but have good depth behind them, they are suspect at SS, their LBs are for the most part young but improving, and their defensive line is stout (on paper at least). What remains to be seen is whether the Bills combination of youthful talent among their backers and secondary combined with veteran talent and skills along the DL will gel into a more formadible unit than the product the Bills showed in 2011?

Addicts, put on your offensive and defensive coordinator caps and let us hear your gameplan for this Sunday in Buffalo.

So we begin the 2012 season, Falcons at Chiefs.

Now what do I mean by Pressure Points? To put this in as simple as terms as possible, no team is perfect and the Falcons are no exception to that rule.

As I’m sure most will agree, on offense, the Falcons are an excellent team, led by a rising star quarterback, a very talented receiving corps, solid pass blocking and a fairly decent ground game that features Michael Turner.  Matt Ryan is a quarterback who can make plays and possesses the necessary leadership and skills to can carry his team through adversity. Roddy White is widely considered to be among the league’s elite receivers.

Second year receiver Julio Jones has the potential to be just as dynamic as White if not moreso. Similarly, slot receiver Harry Douglas is a guy who can destroy you when left uncovered. Future HOF’er TE Tony Gonzalez can be counted on to catch a slew of balls each year, routinely make third down conversions, and help move the chains on a consistent basis.  Last season, Michael Turner rushed for 1340 yards averaging 4.5 yards a pop.

In a nutshell, the Falcons field a very potent offense stocked with playmakers.

The Falcons do not have many weak points but there are some chinks in the Falcons offensive armor. The first to note is perhaps the most obvious. Matt Ryan, just like any quarterback, is less of a threat when pressured.

Fortunately for Ryan, the Falcons offensive line has, as a unit, is pretty good. That said, their weakest link along that line however is also the most important: left tackle, which continues to be undermanned by likes of Sam Baker and Will Svitek. During this past offseason, the only significant move the Falcons made to address their offensive line was draft Peter Konz as the eventual replacement for 34-year-old C Todd McClure. Konz was expected to be the Falcons starter RG but has so far been unable to win it away from the heretofor lackluster Garrett Reynolds.

The Falcons offense, while solid in just about every respect, does have some concerns when it comes to veterans at or nearing the downside/end of their career. As already mentioned, McClure is 34. Tony Gonzalez is 36 (and considerably slower these days). Similarly, White, now 30, while still a productive and dangerous receiver, is also not as explosive as he once was.

Michael Turner, also 30, has been a workhouse for the Falcons, serving in the role of a true feature back (almost an anachronism these days), touching the ball nearly 1200 times over the last 4 seasons. Toward the end of last season, Turner’s production began to drop off noticeably. One has to wonder, like so many traditional feature backs, how much he has left in the tank. The Falcons did not do anything of any significance during the offseason to address this concern either.

With Turner, the Falcons are essentially one dimensional in the rushing attack. According to Football Outsiders stats, in 2011, Turner was most efficient when running inside the right tackle (ranking ninth) and outside the left tackle (ranking 12th).  Other than the aforementioned two lanes, Turner ranked towards the bottom of league in efficiency. In fact, the Falcons run game as a whole ranked 27th in efficiency. To perhaps put this is even better perspective, Turner’s overall efficiency ranked statistically below that of Jackie Battle’s last season, once again according to Football Outsiders.

Let’s recap the Falcons pressure points on offense.

Along the offensive line, I believe one can fairly say they are highly suspect at Left Tackle and Right Guard, and treading water with an aging Center.  Among their receiving corps, Tony Gonzalez seems to have slowed down considerably and Roddy White, while still good, seems to have lost a step. Similarly, at RB, Michael Turner’s tread is starting to showing signs of wear.

Now let’s talk about the Falcon’s defense.

I’ll start off by saying that the free agency acquisition of Asante Samuel (age 31), being paired up with Brent Grimes (age 29), gives Atlanta a “respect worthy” secondary.  I’d even go so far as to say that Grimes is probably one of the most under-rated CBs in the league. In terms of defending specific receivers, in 2011 according to Football Outsiders, the Falcons ranked, respectively, 30th, 12th, second, first, and eighth against #1 WR, #2 WR, Other WR, TE, and RB.

Overall, Football Outsiders ranked the Falcons as the 11th most efficient pass defense and now with the acquisition of Samuel, one might think there’s good reason to think they will be even better this season.

At linebacker, the Falcons defense took its biggest hit during the offseason with the loss of Curtis Lofton to free agency. Lofton had led the Falcons in tackles for the past two seasons and was a vocal leader for the team. So, I’ll just come right out and say the loss of Lofton is probably the most significant hit to the Falcons D unit and I rather expect that the loss of his presence will be felt in both tangible and intangible ways this season.

The Falcons’ front four on D are also pretty good. John Abraham (age 34) continues to man the RDE spot, and Ray Edwards (age 27) seems to be holding things down at LDE pretty well as well. Abraham is a perennial sack machine, last year getting 9.5 total. For his part, Edwards had somewhat of a down year and managed only 3.5 sacks. I’m inclined to attribute Edwards drop off in sacks largely to him needing time to acclimate to the Falcons defense and coaching staff, having come from the Vikings just the year prior.

Against the run, Football Outsiders ranked the Falcons DL as the third most efficient unit in the league last season.  They ranked #2 in stuff efficiency, 17th against power runs and 2nd level, and 20th against open field runs. Breaking this down even further along the gaps, the Falcons ranked seventh in defending runs outside the LE, fifth at defending runs that targeted the left A gap, 25th against runs that went between the guards, first against the right A gap, and second against runs outside the RE.

So there you have it. The weak points of the Falcons defense seem to be few. I really only potentially see a couple (if any?), the biggest of those being the loss of MLB Lofton and to what extent Dent and the rest of the Falcons defense can compensate for the void left. The other weakness seems to be their difficulty at stopping runs up the middle. Lastly, and this is somewhat of minor point, they seem to struggle some at tackling runners once they break through the line. I suspect that the loss of leading tackler Lofton may exacerbate this apparent weakness even further.

So there you have it, Addicts. I’ve laid out, to the best of my ability, where the Falcons weaknesses lie. Now it’s your turn to play coach and tell me what you do to exploit these perceived flaws? For example, with Hali out, who do you rush against Baker/Svitek?  Do you swap Houston to the other side? What role would you like see to Eric Berry in—guarding Gonzalez or rushing the passer? On the other side of the line, what is your plan of attack against the formidable Falcons D?

Sound off!!

Consider this an extension of the “Of Combines and Correlations” series if you will.  However, instead of looking at just rookie scores, I’ve decided to take it a step further to see how our entire roster performed in physical attribute testing, whether through the NFL Combine or Pro Days, how those players compare amongst themselves within their position group, how they stack up against their NFL position peers, and then maybe make some assessments as whether they are beating the odds or falling in line with Joe Landers predictive model.  If you’re new to this approach, you can get a better understanding of what this is all about and perhaps why it even matters by simply reviewing Of Combines and Correlations – Part 1.

Today, we take a look at physical attribute scores for the current roster of Chiefs wide recievers as shown below.

As perhaps you may recall from Of Combines and Correlations – Part 4, Landers concludes from his statistical analysis of the 5 year combine database ending in 2008, that wide receivers who exceeded peer average in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump, plus earned at least two EPAs on top of that had the best odds for future NFL success and that 6 EPAs was optimal, again provided that EPAs in the 40 and VJ were among the EPAs earned.

The first thing that probably catches your eyes here is Josh Bellamy’s perfect* score of 7 EPAs (*noting that WRs almost never participate in the Long Shuttle Drill). 7 would seem even better than 6, right? Well, going off of Landers 5 year dataset, only one receiver achieved 7 EPAs, and as of 2008, that player was not a starter but did at least make roster.  So noted, given the small sample size, I personally wouldn’t make any statistical distinction between 7 EPAs and the optimum 6 EPAs.

Breaking it down a little, the current roster is composed of 3 receivers who achieved 6 EPAs or better, Bellamy, Kinnie, and Wylie, all of whom are rookies.  4th round pick Wylie seems to be leading the pack in terms of camp productivity however the undrafted rookies, Bellamy and local product Kinnie, have certainly also made some plays when given the opportunity.  It’s tough to figure out at this point what the Chiefs plan to do with all this fresh infusion of speed and athleticism in the context of a 53 man roster, but it will be an interesting story to watch nonetheless. Also, keep in mind that Landers timeline for determining NFL success (i.e., 1st teamer status) is 5 years or less from the time of being drafted (or in the case of UDFA’s, being signed).

Of these three, I suppose I am most optimistic about Wylie in terms of making the 53 man roster and having an immediate impact as a returner. In the case of Bellamy, he’s definitely garnered a lot of well deserved attention in training camp to date. Similarly, Kinnie has flashed some ability as a big, speedy, physical red zone threat with good hands.

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending upon how one views the situation, the Chiefs are likely to only keep 6 receivers on the active roster and those most likely to make the final cut at this point seem to be Bowe, Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, Wylie and I’m going to guess Copper (as a special teamer).  In the case of both Bellamy and Kinnie, even if the Chiefs are intending to slate both for the practice squad (and let’s not  leave Jeremy Horne out of this conversation either) I would really hate to see either of those guys get snatched up on waivers while we’re waiting to place them on the practice squad.

Of course, there remains several weeks before the Chiefs have to make that final cut. Things can change, injuries, competition, whatever so perhaps one or more of these guys on the outside develops quickly between now and then and earns (or steps into) an open roster spot? Scott Pioli also needs to think about the long term future of the organization.

Will Bowe be signed to a long term deal? Will he be franchised two years in a row (that second year gets pretty expensive mind you)? There are a number of things going on that suggest to me that this will be Dwayne Bowe’s last season with the Chiefs. Hopefully we get something valuable in exchange for him.

I’m also not all that certain that Steve Breaston will be around much longer either. His contract is not expensive and his production last season was nothing to write home about. I strongly recommend everyone link here to get Football Outsiders evaluation of both Bowe’s and Breaston’s 2011 campaign. Frankly, neither particularly wowed in terms of elite receiver qualifications.

With what appears to be the recent emergence of Baldwin and McCluster, along with the need to develop a receiver or two to replace Bowe, perhaps Breaston suddenly becomes expendable and one or more of these guys on the bubble can avoid the practice team/waiver conundrum and gets a year to develop as part of the regular 53 man squad? It’s also hard to say at this point whether Copper is a lock between now and the final cut.

That my Double Take Addicts.

Let me hear your thoughts on all this. Are you impressed by the physical talent and potential of the Chiefs’ rookie wide receivers this year? Are you at all surprised by what appears to be a less-than-ideal physical attribute skills of the receivers currently on the roster;  especially considering we’re talking about guys that most might consider the mainstays of our receiver corps? Lastly, what do you think holds for the future of this group?

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6

Finally, we arrive at the last installment of this statistical forecast for the Chiefs 2012 draft class. In the 7th round, the Chiefs selected DL Jerome Long and WR Junior Hemingway.  Hemingway participated at the Combine but Long did not and so in the latter’s case, we’ll need to use alternative physical attribute data (e.g., Pro Day results) when applying Joe Landers’ methodology for projecting future NFL success.

We’ll begin with Long (6’4″, 290 lbs), who will presumably serve in the role of a 43-type DT. Landers’ DT peer average metrics (bolded being the most important) and first teamer EPA percentages follow:

Short Shuttle: 4.61 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 12.44 sec; No 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.67 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 30.10”; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 106”; 52% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.11 sec; 61% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 26.43; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

As we can see, the leading indicator for DT’s is the 3-cone drill, wherewith 2/3rds of DT prospects earning an EPA made first team within 5 years of being drafted based on Landers combine database. Cutting straight to the chase, Landers concludes that optimal number of EPA’s for a DT is 6, and other than that, somewhere in the range of 3 to 5 EPAs still makes for a ”respectable” outcome at this position in terms of players serving in depth roles.  Put another way, anything less than 6 EPAs, and the percentage of guys who made 1st team drops into the teens.  Bottom line, successful DTs need to not only be ugly, they better also be hellacious athletes.

All that said, here’s how Longs’ Pro Day numbers looked:

Short Shuttle: No data available

Long Shuttle: No data available

Three Cone: No data available

Vertical Jump: 23″

Broad Jump: 102”

Forty yard dash: 5.04 sec (source – nfldraftscout.com); EPA

Bench Reps: 23

Lacking critical attribute data, particularly in the 3 Cone Drill, makes the overall assessment of Long both difficult and a bit of a mystery in terms of evaluating his athleticism. What we can safely say is that the statistical likelihood of him becoming a starter is extremely slim based just on these limited results. Beyond that, if hypothetically given the opportunity, he would need to score EPAs in both the short shuttle and 3 Cone to be considered statistical viable to even make roster.  In other words, Landers’ forecast for Jerome Long is not a very promising one. Perhaps there are mitigating circumstances, injury or whatever, that account for Long’s apparent lack of athleticism? I have not heard anything particularly encouraging about him so far out of training camp so it seems that Landers’ model holds water with Long, at least preliminarily. Moreover, if the recently published (unofficial) depth chart is any indicator, Long certainly has his work cut out for him.

Let’s move on to the Chiefs’ final pick of the 2012 draft, WR Junior Hemingway (6’1″, 225 lbs).

As previously detailed in Part 4 of this series, here are the peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages (bolded metrics being the most important)  for WRs:

Short Shuttle: 4.26 sec; 39% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.49 sec; 26% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.01 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 36.05”; 83% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (66% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA)

Broad Jump: 121”; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (65% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA)

Forty yard dash: 4.53 sec; 83% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (76% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA)

Bench Reps: 15.14; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

A WR prospect should ideally get EPA’s in both the 40 Yard Dash and the Vertical Jump and then at least 2 more EPAs in addition. With 65% of 1st teamers receiving an EPA as well, the broad jump also seems to be a significant indicator.

Hemingway’s combine numbers were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 3.98 sec; EPA

Long Shuttle: No data available

Three Cone: 6.59 sec; EPA

Vertical Jump: 35.5″

Broad Jump: 124”; EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.53 sec;  

Bench Reps: 21; EPA

Okay, so what we see here is that Hemingway is pretty decent athlete, scoring 4 EPAs total but the downside, and it’s a pretty big downside at that, is that he did not score EPAs in either of the most critical attribute tests, namely the 40 Yard Dash and the Vertical Jump. In each case, only 17% of the prospects in Landers 5 year study were able to make 1st team without scoring an EPA in each respective category. Still, considering Hemingway did score 4 EPAs overall AND scored very respectably in both the 40 and vertical, I feel that he was without question worth a late 7th round pick all considered. To what degree he is able to parlay his above average athleticism onto the field remains to be seen.

That’s my Double Take, Addicts.

What do you think? Do you envision either of these players making some kind of impact, as Chiefs, over the next few years? What do you think it will take for these prospects to overcome the odds and be exceptions to the rule?

Lastly, sound off if you would be interested in seeing Landers’ predictive model put to the test at each position of the current roster (so, not just rookies).  Word of warning: if you’re looking for some insights into predicting quarterback success based on combine numbers and how Cassel and company stack up against their peers, that unfortunately is one position where Landers analysis showed virtually no correlation between Combine performance and Quarterback success– yet one more reason why drafting a “franchise” QB and recognizing “it” factor at that position continues to be a high risk proposition. On the other hand, evaluating say our WR corps and other critical positions might offer a little insight into team athleticism, the chances for long term success, and overall depth.

A favorite pastime for Chiefs fans this offseason has been debating whether or not a Matt Cassel-led Kansas City Chiefs can achieve Super Bowl glory. Abounding arguments eventually degenerate to: you need an elite QB to win a SB, and Matt Cassel is not an elite QB.

Some of the more brazen fans would allude to the possibility that Matt Cassel still might become elite. While there still may be time for him to develop, and it’ll be interesting to see how Tom House’s work with Cassel on his throwing mechanics will translate to the field on game day, the odds of eliteness aren’t too good. However, with all the changes we hope to see, we should be looking at a Top 20 passing offense at the least.

“Big whoop,” I imagine you saying. “In what world does a team with a QB lucky to break the Top 20 have a real chance at a Super Bowl title? Sure, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson did it. But two teams in the past 12 years are not the kind of odds to hang your hopes on.”

Methinks you doth protest too much.

I’m not gonna rehash the little factoids such as Rex Grossman getting the Bears to the SB in the 2006 season. Or that just this past season we were poor special teams play away from witnessing two non-elite QBs in the big game. Though go-to favorites, we’re all Addicts here, and those arguments are old hat.

But what if I told you that the ’00 Ravens and ’02 Bucs weren’t the only teams to win a SB in the past dozen years without elite QB-play? That three other teams made it happen in a way our very own Chiefs could well duplicate this year? I present to you the ’01 Patriots, the ’05 Steelers and ’07 Giants.

“Wait just a minute, slappy; Brady, Roethlisberger and Eli Manning are all counted among the elite.” Yeah they are… now. But let’s take off the rose-tinted glasses and go back in time to the years these QBs got their first SB rings… And it’s not nice to call me “slappy”…

The date is Feb. 3, 2002: Rams vs. Patriots. After Drew Bledsoe suffered a serious injury in Week 2 of the season, the Patriots had been left to play a sixth-round pick out of Michigan that only just entered his second year as an NFL pro. He hasn’t done too bad over the season, but, still, the Patriots finished off the season ranking only 22^nd in passing. By comparison, they ranked 13^th in rushing, and their defense 6^th in points allowed. Brady has only posted 2,843 passing yards on the season (a career low in seasons he saw significant playing time), 18 TDs (another career low), and a 2.9 percent INT rate (a career high). Further, the Patriots barely made it through the playoffs, and were fortunate that their divisional round game against the Raiders was officiated by a team of refs that were aware of an obscure rule that kept what could’ve been a fumble merely an incomplete pass, opening up an opportunity for K Adam Vinatieri to make an insanely long kick in terrible weather conditions… the kind of kick Hollywood would glorify, but moviegoers would think to be too highly unlikely, if not impossible, to happen in real life. Following up on that near loss, the Patriots met trouble in the AFC Championship game against the Steelers. Brady went down to injury and Bledsoe came back in and was able to save the day.

So it was a rough road, but the Patriots were able to make it into the Super Bowl. Let’s see how Brady did: completing 16 out of 27 passes (a 59.25% completion rate), Brady had 145 yards passing on the day and one TD (an eight-yd pass to David Patten). Not quite yet the showing of an elite QB. So where did the win come from if not on the back of the QB? I see they rushed for a combined 133 yards, almost matching their passing production (not too shabby). Still, the Pats total combined offense didn’t surpass Kurt Warner’s passing offense (365 yards), and chipping in 92 yards rushing for the Rams just adds to the lopsidedness. Guess the Pats’ defense is owed a lot of credit considering all that production didn’t result in more points. Okay, and Ty Law had a 47-yd INT return for a TD. That would definitely help. And Vinatieri shows up again with 37-yd and 48-yd FGs; the 48-yarder getting the win. Guess we know who’s getting the MVP… Wait! It was Brady?!?! I guess giving the K his due would offend your QBs delicate sensibilities. But what about Ty Law, or someone else on D that shut down the Rams when it was needed the most? “What’s that? Defensive players get the SB MVP with the same frequency they win the Heisman, and Ray Lewis just got MVP in the previous SB?” Okay. Let the history book insinuate that Brady was better than he was that early on; in the meantime, sports photographers will make a killing selling Vinatieri pictures and prints to the New England fans that knew better.

Moving on, let’s examine Roethlisberger and the 2005 Steelers. You know what? This one’s easy. The Steelers finished the season ranked 24^th in passing offense, 5^th in rushing offense and 3^rd in Defensive Points Allowed. They had as many TDs rushing as they did passing (21) and four of those passing TDs weren’t even thrown by Roethlisberger. Big Ben had 2,385 passing yards on the season, and had a pathetic showing in the SB, posting a Passer Rating of 22.6. Seriously. Ben completed 9 of 21 passes for 123 yds in the SB, and 2 INTS. The only Pittsburgh TD reception came on a WR pass from Antwaan Randle-El to Hines Ward. If the 2002 Bucs are proof that a team can win it all with a disgustingly high scoring defense, the 2005 Steelers are proof perfect that a team with a shutdown defense and a top notch running game can win it all.

The 2007 Giants are perhaps the toughest to defend. Eli finished the season with 3,336 passing yards (right around Cassel’s top end). While he did post 23 TD receptions on the year, he led the league in INTs with 20… by no means a good ratio, let alone an “elite” QBs ratio. He also completed only 57.7 percent of his passes (Cassel’s career average is 59 percent). All in all, the Giants passing offense on the season was ranked 21^st, their defense 17^th in points allowed (though 7^th in yards allowed), and 4^th overall in rushing offense with their RBs contributing 15 TDs on the season. So their defense was about average, their running game well above average, and their passing game considerably below average.

What makes a tough point to argue is that Eli put in a significantly better SB performance than either Brady or Ben in their first go-rounds (especially Ben… 22.6 Passer Rating?!?! C’mon!) Eli completed 19 of 34 passes (a 55.9% completion rate) for 255 yds, two TDs and one INT. What shouldn’t be overlooked is the fact that the Patriots were having a perfect season, losing no games and averaging just shy of 37 points per game and despite this, the Giants’ defense really stepped it up and held the Pats to 14 points (including overcoming a near successful game winning drive in the final minute of play).

It should also be remembered that the Giants’ final drive was kept alive by David Tyree knowing enough to break his route and give Eli a target down-field before getting sacked… and also making a miraculous helmet catch that may well define the term “circus catch”. While Eli deserves some credit for staying on his feet; Tyree deserves the bulk of the credit for his situational awareness and making such an unlikely catch.

So, there you have it: three more teams and three more SBs, where the quality of QB play was much less elite and much more Cassel-esque. And while these players may be elite now, their production and circumstances indicate that in these years their teams won, not on the strength of their QB, but on the strength of the team as a whole. Be it a strong defense keeping the score low, a running game that pounded the ball and controlled the clock, or particularly good special teams play, these teams persevered and earned the coveted title.

Overall, our beloved Chiefs have the makings of such a team. Our defense is primed to crack the Top 10, if not the Top five. If Charles and Hillis return to some semblance of their 2010 form, the Chiefs are pretty much guaranteed a Top 5 run game, if not No. 1. And the increased talent and strength of our offensive line should keep the Richard Seymours of the world at bay long enough for Ryan Succop to keep us alive when we need it the most. Everyone wants a playoff win (and it has been a while), and as heartbreaking as it may be to hope for a higher goal and fall short, I see no reason why we can’t win it all this year and bring the Lombardi Trophy to where it would look best: Kansas City. Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!

Last week hope remained that Bowe would be offered a multi-year contract before Monday’s deadline, and I took upon myself to answer a few questions regarding NFL contracts and the salary cap that may have been on fans’ minds.

This week we know that Bowe and the Chiefs didn’t reach a multi-year deal. In the wake of this news it’s apparent that pretty much every fan knows that Bowe has the option to sit out the year or sign a contract to play the 2012 season, but there are a few questions/misunderstandings on the finer points that have cropped up in discussions across the web that could use some clarifying.

If Bowe opts to sit out this year, will he be penalized?

It depends on how you define “penalized.” The Exclusive Franchise Player tag means he can only sign a deal with the Chiefs to play this season*; however, it does not mean he is under contract. Not being under contract, Bowe should expect that by not playing football he won’t earn a paycheck, and probably doesn’t view it so much as a penalty as it is a necessary evil if he decides not to play. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play this season before the first regular season game, he’ll be due the entire sum of $9.5 million. If Bowe elects to sign the tender and enter into a contract to play after the first regular season game, the $9.5 million figure will be reduced proportionately. At no point would Bowe be expected to give up more than the amount of the franchise tender. So if you want to call it a penalty, just be aware that it’s more of a passive penalty than a proactive penalty. Basically, full play = full pay, partial play = partial pay & no play = no pay (there is no no play = no pay + additional penalties). Personally, refusing to give something to someone who has yet to earn it isn’t really a penalty in my book.

* The CBA expressly forbids the assignment or transferring of this exclusive negotiating right to another team**.

** Yes, this means that the rumor that Bowe was on the trading block during the Draft back in April is totally baseless, as Pioli and the FO would certainly have known that he couldn’t be traded.

If Bowe sits out the season, can he be franchised next year?

Yes. However, the CBA requires that such a tag be a Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag. Under such a tag, Bowe would be free to negotiate a deal with other teams, but the Chiefs would maintain a Right to First Refusal. In this scenario, if the Chiefs would elect to not match the other team’s offer they would have the right to be compensated with a first-round draft pick and a third-round draft pick in the upcoming draft.

What happens to the salary cap if Bowe decides to sit out the full season?

If by 3 p.m. (CST) on the first Tuesday after Week 10 of the regular season arrives, and Bowe is still not under contract, two things happen:

1)  Bowe will be prohibited from playing football for the remainder of the League year.

2)  The entire $9.5 million currently earmarked for Bowe through the franchise tag will be released back into the team’s available funds.

So, if Bowe doesn’t play this year, he doesn’t get any money, but the team doesn’t lose its money either (they’d get it back and could roll it over into next year’s cap if they so choose).

What can happen with the franchise tag if Bowe does play this season?

There would be no restrictions on the type of franchise tag (Exclusive Player or Non-Exclusive Player) that the Chiefs could use if Bowe plays under the tag this season. In this scenario, if the Chiefs extend Bowe the Non-Exclusive Franchise Player tag and another team makes Bowe an offer the Chiefs don’t want to match, draft pick compensation would come to the tune of two first-round draft picks in the upcoming Draft.

The argument can be made, and I’m making it now, that if Baldwin, Breaston & Co. show enough progression to make Pioli comfortable with risking the loss of Bowe altogether, this may mean very great things for the future of our franchise. Yeah, we’d lose perhaps one of our greatest receivers in franchise history, but we’d be gaining much more ammunition for making a move towards one of the greater QBs coming out in the draft, and we wouldn’t quite be “trading the farm” like the ‘Skins did this year for RGIII. That’s a temptation that absolutely has to be considered, and I don’t think we should blame Pioli one bit for taking it into account (which I’m sure he has).

Are multi-year negotiations totally off the table until free agency begins next offseason?

No. Though it is off the table for the time being, the CBA allows negotiations for a multi-year contract to resume following the team’s final game of the regular season. So even if the franchise tag is unavailable for use on Bowe next year (i.e. if it’s being used on another player such as Albert or Dorsey) given the length of time between the playoffs and when free agency begins, Bowe and the Chiefs will have about two months to work out a long-term deal before other teams could begin negotiating with Bowe.

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All-in-all, it looks like not signing Bowe to a long-term deal now is not the end of the world. In fact, between the compensatory picks we could potentially gain by letting Bowe go through a Non-Exclusive Franchise tag next season, and the compensatory picks we’ll get for the FA losses we incurred this season (Carr, Orton and the like), we’re looking at the possibility of having a MASSIVE draft next season, and I’m almost already salivating at the thought of what that could mean. We’re on the brink of greatness, Addicts, and one way or another Bowe will be a key component in how we get there: be it as a Chief, or a bargaining chip.

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Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

For this week’s edition, we put the Chiefs’ 6th round draft pick, RB Cyrus Gray beneath the microscope of Joe Landers’ NFL Combine-based forecasting model.

With further ado, Landers’ RB peer average metrics (bolded being the most important) and first teamer EPA percentages.

Short Shuttle: 4.32 sec; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.73 sec; 25% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.17 sec; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 34.90”; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 117”; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.57 sec; 69% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 18.67; 38% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

To summarize, the leading indicator for RB’s is the 40 yard dash, wherein 69% of RB prospects who achieved an EPA in Lander’s 5 year data set, made first team within 5 years of being drafted. There are other significant, though less compelling, attribute scores which when assessed collectively can also point to success for a RB prospect. These are the Short Shuttle, the Vertical Jump, the Broad Jump, and the 3 Cone Drill.  From all this, Landers concludes that the optimal number of EPAs for a RB prospect is 4, one of which being the 40 yard dash.

Let’s see how Cyrus Gray’s (5’10″, 206 lbs) numbers shake out:

Short Shuttle: 4.28 sec (Pro Day result); EPA

Long Shuttle: Did not participate

Three Cone: 7.17 sec (7.14 sec on his Pro Day); EPA (between Combine and Pro Day scores, close enough)

Vertical Jump: 32.5”

Broad Jump: 114”

Forty yard dash: 4.47 sec; EPA 

Bench Reps: 21; EPA

First off, it is encouraging that Gray achieved an EPA in the most important attribute test of all, the 40 yard dash, and that he scored 4 EPAs overall (technically 3), which Landers concludes is the optimal number to achieve. Gray was projected by some scouts to go as high as the 3rd round; the Chiefs acquired him in the 6th.

Gray’s rep, coming in, is that of a versatile, selfless team player, loaded with intangibles (think Mike Vrabel or Thomas Jones, I guess). In addition to playing RB, Gray’s also experienced at playing FB, returning and covering kicks, shows good hands as a receiver, is reputedly a great pass blocker, and perhaps most importantly, well-suited for the ZBS. I’ve also read that Gray’s game speed is better than his track speed (but then again, that’s often heard about a lot of prospects).

Overall, as a sixth round selection, I think one has to feel pretty good about the potential that Cyrus Gray brings to the Chiefs’ table.  He offers a variety of positional skills which, if nothing else, should enhance the quality of our depth on offense, on special teams, and perhaps in the locker room too. Whether Gray is adequate insurance for Jamaal Charles if, god forbid, he gets hurt again or fails to return to form, is another question.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts?  Do you believe Cyrus Gray will make roster? Practice squad perhaps? If yes, do you see him displacing any current roster member? Who might that be? Assuming he makes roster, what role(s) do you envision him taking on during in his rookie campaign? Gray has some past injury concerns– do you believe those will continue to plague him in the NFL?

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In today’s installment, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs’ 5th round draft pick, CB/S DeQuan Menzie’s turn to be measured, weighed, and assessed under Joe Landers’ forecasting model. In so doing, we’ll operate from the assumption that the Chiefs intend to work Menzie primarily as a Safety rather than as a Cornerback (noting that CB is the position for which Menzie was best known at Bama, playing opposite Dre Kirkpatrick).

We’ll start off by looking at Landers’ peer averages and first teamer EPA percentages (bolded metrics again being the most important) for the Safety position.:

Short Shuttle: 4.25 sec; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.61 sec; 23% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.04 sec; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 35.82”; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 119”; 29% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.58 sec; 74% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (70% & 69% of Safety prospects were two deepers or made roster, respectively) 

Bench Reps: 16.33; 31% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

 
Put simply, all a Safety prospect has to do is achieve one measly EPA, in the 40 yard dash, and he’s got a pretty good shot, statistically speaking, of making first team within his first 5 years  in the league. None of the other combine metrics seem to matter at all for this position. Landers basically sums this all up in saying that for safeties, “it’s all about fit.” 

So how did the Quan’s performance stand up against his peers?

DeQuan Menzie’s (5’11″, 202 lbs) Combine (*Pro Day) Metrics:

*Short Shuttle: 4.25 sec

*Long Shuttle: 12.05 sec

*Three Cone: 6.93sec; EPA

Vertical Jump: 33”

Broad Jump: 116”

Forty yard dash: 4.67 sec

Bench Reps: Did not participate

Oops.

You see, while Menzie did score one EPA, it unfortunately was not the right one. And if we are to put any stock in Joe Landers research, the forecast for DeQuan Menzie is that he will face an uphill battle, statistically speaking, to even make roster over the next few seasons.

Ouch.

All considered, I am not too sure I want to give DeQuan Menzie the responsibility of covering slot receivers and tight ends, or lunging at running backs for that matter, if he doesn’t have the speed to finish the play.  At the same time, Menzie’s rep is that of guy that can lay on a pretty good hit so there may be a spot for him as a 4th safety and on special teams.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts? Do you feel that Menzie will beat the odds, perhaps even start for the Chiefs someday? Perhaps a better question is, is he an upgrade over Shabby Piscatelli? Taking this further still, do you feel that DeQuan Menzie should be considered an exception to Landers’ predictive model and if so, why? Please put your responses in essay form, 500 words or less. You have 30 minutes. Begin now.

In Part 1 of this series, applying Joe Landers’ statistical analysis of NFL combine performances , we assessed the likelihood of Chiefs #1 draft pick Dontari Poe becoming a success in the NFL. In Part 2 and Part 3, we covered, respectively, the Chiefs 2nd round pick  OG Jeff Allen and 3rd round pick OT Donald Stephenson. It should come as little surprise then that in today’s installment, we’ll apply Landers’ combine performance analysis to the Chiefs 4th round pick, WR/PR Devon Wylie.

In Wylie’s case, we must first take note of a certain caveat; Wylie only participated in 4 events at the Combine, to wit, the 40 yard dash, the broad and vertical jumps, and bench reps. For a full assessment of the WR position using Landers methodology, we should have numbers from at least 2 other combine metrics. As such, I’ve elected to bend the rules a bit by drawing from Wylie’s Pro Day scores in the Short Shuttle and 3 Cone Drill. I’ll let readers be the judge as to whether, or to what degree,  Pro Day numbers contribute signficantly to this review of Devon Wylie. 

For the WR position, Landers concludes that if a prospect can exceed peer average in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump “their odds for success will be very good.” Landers further notes that his 5 year dataset showed that 83% of WR prospects who EPA’d in the 40 and vertical were starters in 2008.  That seems like a pretty impressive stat in and of itself. Overall, according to Landers, a WR prospect should score at least 4 EPAs and optimally 6.

Continuing on  -

Landers’ WR peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages (bolded metrics being the most important) :

Short Shuttle: 4.26 sec; 39% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.49 sec; 26% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.01 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 36.05”; 83% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (66% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA) 

Broad Jump: 121”; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (65% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA) 

Forty yard dash: 4.53 sec; 83% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (76% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA) 

Bench Reps: 15.14; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

To summarize, 40 yard dash and vertical jump scores are the leading indicators while broad jump and 3 cone are also strong, though lesser, indicators. 

Now for Devon Wylie’s (5’9″, 187 lbs) Combine Results:

Vertical Jump: 39”; EPA

Broad Jump: 124”; EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.39 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 17; EPA

Without even factoring in Wylie’s supplemental Pro Day metrics, we plainly see that he achieved EPAs in the 2 most signficant categories, the 40 and the vertical, and in one other significant category, the broad jump.  He further added an EPA for bench reps, bringing his total to 4 EPAs which, standing alone, suggests he has a strong likelihood of seeing success as a WR in the NFL based only on his 4 Combine results. Nevertheless, let’s go ahead and look at his Pro Day numbers in other three categories.

Devon Wylie’s Pro Day Results:

Three Cone: 6.82 sec; EPA (referencing Lander’s Combine based averages)

Short Shuttle: 4.16 sec; EPA (again referencing Landers’ Combine based averages)

 Long Shuttle: 11.50 sec; 

A popular knock on Pro Day scores is that they are done on friendly turf, in a much more relaxed and sanitized environment, thus favoring inflated results. Nevertheless, Wylie did not barely beat Landers’ Combine based averages in the Short Shuttle and 3 Cone, he beat them in pretty convincing fashion, thus perhaps discounting a bit the home turf criticism. As for the Long Shuttle score, which is not by any means horrible,I’ll simply draw from Landers observation that it is least important indicator for WRs, noting that 74% of 1st team WRs did not achieve EPAs in the Long Shuttle event.

All considered, I do not have any solid basis for believing that Wylie would not also have achieved EPAs in the 3 cone and Short Shuttle, had he done them at the Combine instead.

Regardless of how one slices it, Wylie appears to lie somewhere  between a very good to excellent NFL prospect based on his Combine and Pro Day results using Landers forecasting model. If we only take into consideration Wylie’s Combine results, he achieves the 4 EPA result that Lander’s concludes is a very strong indicator for WR success. If we also factor in Wylie Pro Day results, he achieves Landers’ optimal indicator of 6 EPAs. 

As long as he stays healthy (perhaps the biggest concern of all) and is properly utilized, Wylie certainly possesses the athletic qualities that one seeks in a wide receiver.  His size of course dictates that he will be featured primarily in the slot. Might Devon Wylie be the next Wes Welker? Or, might he turn out to be even better than Welker? In both cases, it seems the potential is there.

Going off of Landers’  predictive model, this is a pick one can’t help but feel pretty good about, especially considering he was not acquired until the 4th round. His upside potential as a slot receiver aside, I personally am even more encouraged about the potential he brings for making an immediate impact in the Chiefs return game, and I will be absolutely thrilled if that is how Chiefs’ fans first learn to fall in love with the guy. My hope is that his 4.39 speed, combined with his size and shiftiness (plus new-ness to the league), somehow catches our first six opponents enough offguard to put them consistently on their heels and the Chiefs in consistently good field position.  

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts? Do you similarly envision Devon Wylie being an immediate impact player, or difference maker, as a returner? What about his long term potential as a slot receiver? What, if any, are your concerns about Devon Wylie?  Sound off!

I guess I should first preface this review of Stephenson by pointing out that many Chiefs’ fans struggled to understand the need for, much less the wisdom of, picking a lineman after already spending the first two picks on linemen. I’d say the general/initial consensus about the drafting of  Stephenson was . . . not sexy. That said, let’s examine whether, if at all, Stephenson’s Combine performance statistically projects success for him as an NFL Tackle and see whether that changes anyone’s opinion about the pick.

Joe Lander’s overall assessment for the Offensive Tackle position can summarized by saying that an EPA in the 40 yard dash plus 4 more EPAs on top of that gives an OT prospect the best statistical recipe for NFL success at that position. Landers’ further notes that about 2/3rds of starting OT’s in his data set scored on EPA on the 40 yard dash.

Landers’ OT peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages:

Short Shuttle: 4.74 sec; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.83 sec; 44% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 29.24”; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 102”; 49% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.27 sec; 66% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 24.35; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Donald Stephenson’s (6’5″, 312 lbs) Combine Results:

Short Shuttle: 4.78 sec

Three Cone: 7.52 sec; EPA

Vertical Jump: 35.5”; EPA (whoa, some serious ups)

Broad Jump: 114”; EPA (dang son!) 

Forty yard dash: 4.94 sec; EPA (best time among all OTs at the combine)

Bench Reps: 19

One of the knocks on Stephenson coming into the draft was that he lacked elite strength. Here we seem to see that criticism show up in his rather lowish bench reps score. Aside from that, when he did perform strongly in an attribute test, he performed very strongly, but alas, came up .05 secs short (in the short shuttle) from achieving Landers’ ideal of 5 EPAs.  In other words, he was a mere 1/20 sec away from statistical glory.

The more I consider this pick, the more I like it. I feel that Stephenson just needs better technique and some after hours work in the gym. He has great frame for playing the position, tremendous speed and great athleticism to go with - give him a year under his belt and I can see Stephenson becoming a regular contributor to the rotation and perhaps even dominant addition for our ZBS.  

Coming into this draft, the Chiefs were talent thin at OT tackle depth. We lose either Branden Albert or Eric Winston and we’re in a world of hurt once again. Stephenson comes to us with major conference experience playing both the right and left side, and, as a third round pick up seems to me to be both a great value and a great fit for our system. In other words, I have to admit this pick has grown on me; I think Stephenson’s display of near perfect athleticism at the combine further underscores what I feel this guy will ultimately bring to the success of our offense.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts? 

Last week, I introduced Arrowhead Addict readers to Joe Landers’ approach to forecasting NFL success, or rather I should say the likelihood thereof, of a NFL draft prospect based on that prospect’s NFL Combine performance. I then used his methodology, first straight up, and then later factoring in a weight adjustment of my own, to assess the likelihood that the Chiefs first round draft pick, Dontari Poe, would be a successful player in the NFL.

To recap, Landers compiled physical attribute scores from 2005 to 2008 and developed peer averages for each attribute at each position. If a prospect performed above average at his position on a Combine metric, he scored an EPA (Exceeded Peer Average) which Landers uses an indicator of future NFL success. Landers’ primary definition of success was whether the prospect made first team in the 2008 season.

There was at least one reasoned criticism about what I did last week in analyzing Dontari Poe. In order to get more of what I felt would be an apples to apples comparison, I added my own tweak to Poe’s assessment by focusing only on Combine scores for DTs who weighed 330 lbs or more. For the record, Poe himself weighed in at 346 lbs and I felt, due to the laws of physics, it was important to make this distinction and try to draw a line somewhere because the prototypical, ideal nose tackle is generally in the 330 plus weight range. The criticism to my approach was that rather than focusing on weight, I should “redo” my analysis by compiling and correlating scores of true Nose Tackles rather than just DT “fatties” without regard to whether they played NT or 43DT. Two non-fatty NT examples were provided – Jay Ratliff (292 lbs) and Barry Cofield (304 lbs).

I’ll address this criticism first generally and then specifically.

To ignore weight as a factor is to ignore physics as a factor.  Because WRs, DBs, and to a lesser extent RBs and LBs, are typically at the lighter end of the NFL weight scale, they tend to be the fastest players on the field. At the other end of the weight scale are OL and DL “uglies” who tend to be the slowest of all players. The reason for this is simple physics. What’s more, a player who lacks speed, particularly linemen, can more than compensate for this with the right combination of power and quickness (noting that quickness is not the same as speed).

At a more specific level, not all NTs are created equal.  Jay Ratliff, for example, is not really used to anchor the middle, eat blockers, and/or collapse the pocket. Rather, he tries to use his combination of size and speed to slide through a gap and he typically comes in on passing downs for that purpose rather than play as a 3 down NT. Similarly, you will rarely see Barry Cofield, when he’s healthy, take on multiple blockers, and when he does, he routinely gets crushed.  In other words, neither of these guys are the type of NT that a guy like Romeo Crennel would want to feature in his 3-4 scheme. Dontari Poe, for his part, looks to possess an ideal combination of size and athleticism to ultimately be a 3 down NT.

Enough rehashing.  Ready for some more Landers-type assessment of our other draft picks?

Jeff Allen, OG*

Landers’ OG peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages:

Short Shuttle: 4.72 sec; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.84 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 28.45”; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 101”; 47% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.31 sec; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 25.34; 41% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

*  I say OG, rather than OT, because guard is the position that Allen is expected to play for the Chiefs. Besides, scoring EPAs at the OT position is more challenging than those at the OG position.

In the case of OGs, as was also the case with DTs, the most important test to score an EPA on is the 3 cone drill, wherein 2/3rds of 2008 1^st teamers did so within the 2005-2008 study period. Lander’s goes on to conclude the greatest correlation indicator for OG success is for a prospect to score an EPA on the 3 cone and then at least 3 EPAs beyond that.

Jeff Allen’s (6’4”, 307 lbs) Combine Numbers:

Short Shuttle: 4.9 sec

Three Cone: 8.01 sec

Vertical Jump: 27.5”

Broad Jump: 102”; EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.28 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 26; EPA

As you can see, while Allen scored 3 EPAs, he nevertheless undershot on the leading indicator, the 3 Cone drill. What I take away from this is that, statistically speaking, the likelihood of Allen becoming a starting OG is not as great as would the case had he scored at least .17 seconds better on the 3 cone. Whether Jeff Allen proves himself to be a statistical exception, and there are always are some, remains to be seen.

Next week, the Chiefs 3^rd round pick, OT Donald Stephenson.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you take away from this, Addicts? Does Joe Landers’ forecasting model raise any new questions for you about Allen’s future as a Chief? How soon, if at all, do you expect to see Jeff Allen replacing Ryan Lilja as a starter?

I’m quite certain that right about now most of you are getting pretty frothy about all the undrafted rookie free agents the Chiefs are looking at and/or signing so I’ll apologize up front if my offering today takes away from such unbridled excitement. Nevertheless, I am what I am and I do what I do.  So if you’ve been feeling a little neglected, perhaps even frustrated, as a result of going without my statistical emissions for awhile, today I render unto you an opportunity to once again revel in statistical bliss. Yep, the cold, hard, analytical world of Double D is back. Jones away.

What got me started on all this was a recommended reading link from Mike Tanier over at Football Outsiders. The name of the site is Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services. Maybe some of you are already familiar with the Ourlads folks but discovering it was all fresh to me. Long story short, on the home page of Ourlads I happened across a pdf link under the heading of “Relevance Of The Combine”, penned by Joe Landers back in 2009. Hmm, thought I.

In a nutshell, Landers compiled and studied combine results for all positions over a 4 year span, 2005 through 2008, to see whether, or to what degree, combine performance was an indicator of future success in the NFL.  His leading definition of success was whether the prospect played 1^st team during the 2008 season. What he determined, among other things and perhaps not surprisingly, is that certain measurables tend to be more important than others relative to each position.  For example, doing well in the 40 yard dash, broad jump, and vertical jump appear to be important for the wide receiver position as predictors of future NFL success.

The foundational element of Landers analysis was to calculate peer averages for each attribute test at each position. He then compared a prospect’s performance to the peer average for that position and simply came up with a metric he termed “Exceeded Peer Average” or EPA for short.  What he essentially learned was that, depending upon position, if a prospect landed in the right EPA bucket(s), and padded on enough extra EPAs in other, less important, attribute tests that the odds of that prospect making 1^st team were noticeably greater.

After wading through and understanding Landers’ analysis, the obvious next step for yours truly was of course to see how well the Chiefs’ 2012 draft class fared against their peers and what players to feel most hopeful about. Right?

Let’s begin with our #1 draft pick shall we?

At the DT position, Landers notes that there were 5 prospects who EPA’d in all 6 attribute tests for that position. In 2008, all 5 of those prospects were starters. Interestingly enough, DT turns out to be the only position where exceeding the peer average on all metrics for the position ultimately translated into a starting job.  

The rest of the breakdown goes like this:  12% of prospects with 5 EPAs started, 11% with 4 EPAs started, 12% with 3 EPAs started, 12% with 2 EPAs started, 14% with 1 EPAs started, and 11% with no EPAs started. All in all, short of scoring 6 EPAs, exceeding peer averages at the combine does not appear to be a very good indicator that a DT is likely to become a starter. Still, Landers goes on to note that the risk of bust decreases for DTs who score in the 3 to 5 EPA range, wherein the odds are fairly good for a prospect scoring in that range to at least be either 2 Deep or on the roster. Landers ultimately forecasts future success for a DT prospect to most likely involve an EPA in the 3 cone and in at least 4 other categories.

Using Landers numbers from his 2005 to 2008 dataset (which have probably changed moderately), the peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages for DTs were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.61 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.67 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 30.10”; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 106”; 52% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.11 sec; 61% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 26.43; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

From this, Landers surmised that an EPA score in the 3 Cone test appears to be the most important indicator of all for DTs wherein 65% of 2008 starters achieved the EPA level as prospects.  Not really too surprising given the need for quickness within close confines that is typically demanded by this position.

Okay so given all that, how did Dontari Poe score relative to his peers? Well, before I answer that question, I think it is probably important and fair to take into consideration that the average weight of a DT prospect is around 305 lbs wherein Poe weighed in at 346 lbs. In other words, Landers does not distinguish between the typically bigger NTs versus typically smaller 43 DTs. To paraphrase Sir Isaac Newton, gravity is such a drag. More on that later.

Dontari Poe’s results were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.56 sec; EPA

Three Cone: 7.9 sec

Vertical Jump: 29.5”

Broad Jump: 105”

Forty Yard Dash: 4.98 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 44; EPA

 In summary, Poe scored EPAs in 3 metrics, which Landers views as respectable, but came up a bit short in the most important of all, the 3 Cone Drill. So what can we take away from all this?

While it might add to our optimism to know that Dontari Poe exceeded peer averages on all 6 metrics, or at least on the 3 cone and 4 other categories, the reality is that Dontari Poe is a signficantly larger guy than the average member of his peer group. Put simply, he has about 40 extra pounds to lug around compared to the average DT. Think of it this way, strap an extra 40 pounds on your back, and see if you can run the three cone drill just as fast as you did without the extra weight.

Poe’s bigness couldn’t help but weigh on my thinking. Not satisfied that Poe’s numbers represented an apples to apples comparison, I decided I to look up recent combine scores of DTs, sorted by weight. Poe, at 346,is the 5^th heaviest DT to weigh in, being bested on the scales only by the likes of Ahmad Childress, Terrence Cody and Alameda Ta’amu. Scanning the names of other heavyweight contenders, you’ll also find names like Paul Soliai, Kenrick Ellis, Junior Siavii (oops), Haloti Ngata, BJ Raji, Jerrell Powe, and Phil Taylor. Ah, apples to apples.

Now, within this group, I found that Poe scored impressively well compared to the other apples. For example, Poe’s 3 cone time matched that of BJ Raji’s and exceeded, by .07 seconds, that of Haloti Ngata’s. I took this is a step further and averaged the 3 cone scores of all DTs weighing 330 lbs or more. The result? 8.00 secs. Using my own apples to apples, perhaps simplistic, comparison dataset, I unabashedly conclude that Dontari Poe also scored an EPA in the 3 cone drill for the Nose Tackle position.

That’s now makes 4 EPAs for Poe, for those keeping track.

DD’s Broad Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 100”. Chalk up another EPA for Poe. That’s 5.  

DD’s Vertical Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 25.76”. And there you go, another EPA for Poe, thus giving him a perfect score of 6 among his NT peers, at least by my reckoning.

Given Landers observation that all 5 DTs who attained a perfect score of 6 EPAs in his analysis ended up as 1^st teamers, I can’t help but feel a bit more optimistic about Poe’s future manning the interior of the Chiefs DL? Eventually anyway.

Seeing as how this post has gotten a bit lengthy, I’ll leave discussion of our remaining 2012 draft picks for future installment(s). Stay tuned, I promise you a surprise or two.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you think Addicts? Ready to be a Poe Boy now? 

Tradeoffs (sigh).

I haven’t seen the 2011 charting stat numbers yet, but I can tell you that in 2010, Stanford Routt, when paired up with Nmandi Asomugha, was a top shelf pass defender. Football Outsiders, for example, ranked him with the 3rd highest success rate, with 66% of passes defended. Carr ranked 10th in that department with 61% of passes defended. In fact, both scored better than Brandon Flowers, for what it’s worth. Also worth noting is that Routt only gave up 5.7 yards per pass to Carr’s 7.1 yd/pass. Given all that, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to expect Routt’s production to parallel his 2010 situation playing alongside Flowers.

There are also rumors circulating in the media that Routt was somebody for whom Romeo Crennel actively lobbied. If true, I think that’s also pretty significant in terms of scheme fit. For a really well-written, compelling look into the player we’re getting in Stanford Routt, I recommend Doug Farrar’s (Yahoo! Sports) recent piece on him. Long story short, I personally feel this is a really good signing no matter how you slice it.

Now that Routt is inked, it seems that the popular assumption, or expectation if you will, is that all this means is that Pioli got himself a guy with skills very comparable to those of Carr for what we think could be 2 or 3 million less per year. Cynically put, Pioli avoided some unnecessary negotation stress by landing a comparable replacement for Carr who, oh by the way, just so happens to be cheaper to pay. Given that, one is then further tempted to think that the safe, conservative move now is to simply franchise Bowe and let Carr walk. CB dilemma solved, franchise tag dilemma solved, all good.

Well guess what? I’m going to go against the grain and offer an even better strategy. Scotty, I hope you’re reading this (I also hope that after reading this, you’ll finally start responding to those thousands of suggestion letters I’ve sent you dammit!).

Bowe, while inconsistent at times, has shown the potential to be a gamechanger. That’s worth something in the NFL. I think he can also be considered a foundational player for the Chiefs. Also worth something. Still, I believe that Bowe, rather than being tagged, ought to be locked up into a long-term deal before free agency hits. Unless you’re planning to shop him– in and of itself a risky strategy on many fronts– I see no reason not to just sign him to a comfortable, reasonable, market value contract.

So why no tag for Bowe you ask? Well, first off because if you really want him, and you’ve come up with a good backup plan for Carr, then there’s really no reason whatsoever for not focusing all of your attention and energy on getting a deal done to make Bowe’s long-term presence as a Chief into reality. Not just that, but doesn’t it also help to further underscore that whole PR pledgy thingy to develop and retain core players?

As promising and exciting and foundational as Bowe might seem, it is also important to recognize that he simply has not proven himself to be among of the 5 best receivers in the league which, in a certain sense, is what the franchise tag kind of suggests. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the 12th best WR going into 2012 and 19th best among their Dynasty Rankings. Similarly, Football Outsiders ranked Bowe 51st in DVOA and 31st in DYAR for 2011. Not exactly what you’d call eye-popping production.

We all know that Bowe every once in awhile makes for some fun highlight reel footage, but does he honestly merit franchise tag money? Especially when you’re most likely not going to find many teams willing to exchange a high value pick for him? I think you see my point. Bottom line, paying Bowe like he’s a top 5 WR really doesn’t sound all that Clark-like to me. Lest we forget, Bowe was a 1st round draft pick– just how likely is it that we can get that for him now? ROI people, ROI.

Moving on, if Pioli can sign Bowe to a long-term deal before free agency hits, he’ll still have a franchise tag at his disposal, right? Well, please tell me then what would be the folly in using that tag on Carr? In fact, franchising Carr seems to me like the best of all possible moves at this point and I’m going to offer some reasons as to why that is so.

It’s a proverbial seller’s market for top tier CBs and this year is no different. Justifiable or not, Carr is almost certain to command an elite CB level of monetary respect out on the open market. What’s more, it seems there could be some healthy competition for a CB of Carr’s caliber. I can think of at least a couple of teams out there that are desperately needing major secondary talent who, oh by the way, also happen to have some pretty interesting draft pick horsepower to make a lucrative deal happen for the Chiefs. For example, both the Patriots and the Bengals are in need of quality CB help and both are holding on to spare 1st round picks. Just imagine all of the tantalizing draft possibilities that would suddenly open up for the Chiefs if that were to happen?

Move up and get a franchise QB? Check.
Pick up a couple of first round offensive linemen? Check.
Control the draft by moving down? Check.

So you say, “well Double D, suppose nobody is willing to pony up a high draft pick for Carr? Aren’t you then stuck with an overpaid secondary that you’re underutilizing most of the time because, well, as everybody knows, you really only need 2 good corners? Very, very risky. Very expensive (i.e., unClark-like). Not good. Or as my AA colleague Big Matt might say ‘Mattie no likey.’”

Not good? How about not so fast?

Merlin and I were texting back and forth on this whole deal the other day and he brought to my attention a pretty interesting fact of which I was previously unaware. To wit, an NFL nickel plays about 50% of all snaps currently. That is a lot. On top of that, the more success you have at containing teams on 1st down, the more likely it is that you’ll see the nickel utilized on successive downs. In fact, I think with the right personnel, a pretty compelling argument can be made for having the nickel formation as your base D.

When I think of Flowers, Carr, and Routt being on the field all at the same time, I start thinking “two’s company, but hey, three’s a party!” Arenas might excel at wrapping up receivers pretty quickly after the catch but he’s not exactly setting the world on fire when it comes to preventing that catch from happening in the first place. Just sayin.

As many on the message boards here have already suggested, the Routt signing may indeed turn out to be a very forward thinking approach on the part of Crennel and Pioli. In fact, passing against a defensive backfield comprised primarily of Flowers, Carr and Routt would be close to impossible. In this increasingly pass-friendly league, I have to think that that level of secondary presence would basically relegate opposing offenses to beating you with their running game, and maybe tossing in a few dink and dunks for good measure (which painfully brings to mind a certain low-scoring, rather flaccid offense with which I happen to be pretty familiar).

The only practical alternative to going with the run would be to simultaneously risk a lot of coverage sacks. Unless your QB can progress through his reads quickly and also get rid of the ball in a hurry, you’re gonna be in a heap of trouble. If a team goes run, we’ll have DJ, Berry, and perhaps Belcher up in there to contain it. If a team opts to pass, their dealing with a DB set of Flowers, Routt, Carr, and Berry with maybe DJ in coverage while Hali & Houston, along with either an ILB, S, or CB, are all breathing fire in your backfield.

Next– just stay with me here– we grab a very gettable guy in the form of one Paul Soliai as our NT. Tell me, how can that cannot be considered a run stuffing, block eating, shutdown, ballhawking, nightmare defense?

So, armed on defense, we head into the draft to start filling holes on offense.

Final (crazy?) thought. While neither has any experience at the position (at least none of which I’m aware), both Carr and Routt possess prototypical size and speed to play Safety, Routt perhaps moreso because of his physicality. Might this signing, combined with the retention Carr, offer more options and much needed depth at that position as well? I know, stupid idea, probably makes more sense to just plug Sabby Piscatelli whenever the need arises, right? I’m sure we’ll be just fine should Eric Berry happen to miss any games.

That’s my Double Take.

Sound off Addicts!

As I’m sure most readers have by now concluded, the 2011 Chiefs offense struggled some. One interesting stat to look at in this area are 2011 Drive Stats as computed by Football Outsiders. Considering Brian Daboll has been named as the Chiefs new OC, I thought it might also be interesting to take a quick peek at how the Miami Dolphins offense fared last season under Daboll’s watch.

I feel it helps to compare apples to apples and start by setting forth the fact that the core identity of both the Chiefs and Dolphins is that of running teams wherein the Chiefs ranked 2nd in total carries and the Dolphins ranked 5th. So with that clearly established, let’s begin with what each team possessed up front.

As you may or may not know, the Dolphins’ starting OL, unlike the Chiefs, consists entirely of guys who were selected in the first round of their respective drafts. In light of that, one might reasonably expect them to be pretty good at controlling the LOS. Well, yes and no. In a couple of ways, the 2011 versions of each team’s OL units were somewhat similar in that each team possessed superior left tackles in Jake Long for the Phins and Branden Albert for the Chiefs (the Chiefs only 1st round OL btw) but both teams were also pretty soft in the right tackle spots through the likes of Barry Richardson and Marc Colombo. That’s pretty much where the similarities end.

The Dolphins were far and away better between the guards than were the Chiefs. For example (and regardless of what people might feel towards him as a “dirty” player), Incognito seems to have played pretty damn solidly for the Phins in the left guard slot. Similarly, C Pouncey also appears to be doing everything that was expected of him. In terms of interior line play, Vernon Carey’s production in the run game can’t really be faulted either. By contrast, the running game production of the Chiefs interior OL left much to be desired. Need I point out yet once more that going with two undersized interior linemen, UFA LG Ryan Lilja & 38 year old UFA C Casey Weigmann, alongside the 2nd year, 3rd rounder RG Jon Asamoah perhaps comes with its limitations?

The next two tables I think illustrate pretty cleanly what I’m basing all this on.

I see two things basically. The Dolphins were a better running team than the Chiefs in most categories and the Dolphins clearly excelled at running the ball between the guards. So, when it came to playcalling for the rushing game, just how smart was Brian Daboll at playing to his strengths and avoiding his weaknesses? Check out the next table.

What stands out the most to me here is that the Dolphins ran the ball between the guards 63% percent of the time as compared to a league average 50%. I think that’s pretty smart. Number one, because he understood they were good at doing that and number two, the shortest distance between point A and point B is always a straight line (spare me the nerd speak on how Relativistic Physics sometimes suggests otherwise).

What about avoiding weaknesses? Again, we see that for runs to the right side, Daboll controlled the damage by dialing way back on those. The only questionable strategy one can find here is the scaling back on runs to the left side where the Phins experienced an above average success rate. Then again, there’s the shortest distance argument coupled with the fact that all those extra carries between the guards have to come from somewhere. Compared to how Haley managed his gap preferences, Daboll seems like a genius. Point being, know thyself.

So I hear you saying out loud, well weren’t the Dolphins were more successful at running the ball simply because they were blessed with the talents of Reggie Bush while the Chiefs had to somehow make do with Jackie Battle? Sorry boys, but that dog just won’t hunt. Battle ranked 17th in DVOA and 24th in DYAR compared to Bush’s respective 30 and 29 rankings. BOOYAH!

At QB, 5th year veteran backup Matt Moore (originally signed as a UFA by the Cowboys) finished out as 26th in DVOA and 23rd in DYAR while Cassel’s rankings were 39 and 40 respectively. Moore’s completion percentage on the season was 60.5% and his passer rating was 87.1. However, for running teams like the Chiefs and Dolphins, I just don’t see Daboll as having all that signficant of an advantage with Moore. I think one can also make a fair argument that Daboll played a significant role in the success and development that Moore experienced this past season. By the same token, what positive thing can be said about Haley’s role in the development of Matt Cassel during the 2011 season?

I’m going to finish this out by finally getting to the statistical subject I hinted at in my introduction, namely Drive Stats. Note that SOS stands for for Strength of Schedule, DSR is Drive Success Ratio meaning “percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown,” non-adjusted for opponent, while discarding “take-a-knee drives at the end of a half”, and LOS/Dr is “the average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive.” So let’s take a look, shall we?

The first thing I always look at it on this is the LOS/Dr because I feel that’s a pretty fair gauge of how good of a job your special teams receiving unit is doing. It also provides some insight into how much field an offense typically has to work with; in this proverbial “game of inches,” that’s something that can matter. Here we see that the Chiefs ranked 31st in that category while the Dolphins, with the #7 rank, placed them among the elite teams in this categories. This says two things – major changes probably were indeed warranted for the Chiefs’ special teams unit and Daboll typically enjoyed a shorter field with which to work, an edge if you will.

The next thing I like to look at is SOS wherein we see that the Dolphins endured a tougher road than the Chiefs. Now the homer/skeptic might say “well wins and losses are all that really matter” noting rightly that the Dolphins went 6-10 while the Chiefs bested that with a 7-9 record. I suppose the best response to that is that a winless Dolphins team came into Arrowhead and routed a decent KC defense 31-3 with Reggie Bush averaging over 7 yards a carry. I suspect that game not only surprised Romeo Crennel some but very likely also caught his attention in terms of Daboll’s playcalling acumen.

So what’s the big take away?

Facing a tougher schedule, armed with generally inferior talent at skill positions (other than perhaps QB?), but also enjoying better interior OL play and special teams help, running a very similar style of offense, Brian Daboll outperformed Todd Haley’s Chiefs with more yards/dr, more TDs, more points, fewer punts, and a higher DSR. In light of all that, I have to feel that Daboll has a pretty good shot at success here, especially considering he will be operating within what is currently a much weaker division than what he went up against in the AFC East. That, along with a presumptive position upgrade from whomever hikes the ball for the Chiefs in 2012.

You have my Double Take.

I’d love to hear your take Addicts!

For this week’s look back on the 2011 season, I’m bringing in a couple of graphs that seem well suited to my particular brand of speculation and conjecture. As addicted readers will recall, the 2010 Chiefs offense took them atop the AFC West into the playoffs with a 10-6 record, owning the best running game in the league, and also sending Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe, Brian Waters, and Jamaal Charles to the Pro Bowl– not a single defensive player among the bunch.

The 2011 Chiefs offense… not so much.

Now I will be the first to admit that we probably would not have made it to the playoffs last year without the underutilized services of Jamaal Charles (and in spite of the much-overutilized services of one Thom “Thumb” Jones) but one cannot also overlook the fact that Matt Cassel also enjoyed, statistically speaking, the best season of his career with 27 TDs and only 5 INTs over the course of only 14 games. Those numbers were achieved through a limited-attempt, high percentage, highly efficient passing game that simply supplemented a very good run game.

Below I’ve charted, courtesy Football Outsiders stats, the 2010 Chiefs week-to-week DVOA rankings (upper graph) against those of the 2011 Chiefs (lower graph).

I’m probably as guilty as anyone of this, but is it really fair to conclude that Jamaal Charles was the sole reason for the success of the 2010 Chiefs offense and his absence the reason for the failure of the 2011 Chiefs offense? If so, does that adequately explain Matt Cassel’s 2010 DVOA final ranking (16th best QB in the league) to where he ended up in 2011 (39th)? While it’s tempting to think that Jamaal Charles’ presence lifted all boats, when one then goes back and looks at Cassel’s ranking from 2009 (37th), I think it should at least leave them scratching their head just a little bit, because that was also the year in which Charles first got our attention as a major offensive force to be dealt with. In other words, Cassel’s boat didn’t seem to rise all that much in 2009.

The only real difference I can see is that Cassel probably benefited a lot from the combination of Charlie Weis’ mentoring and tailored play calling.

I think it’s also probably very reasonable to believe that the marriage between Weis and the Chiefs organization started to go sour at some point. My best guess is that the most likely reason for his late season departure was most likely because Todd Haley couldn’t resist the temptation to go ahead and “fix” some things that Weis already had working. I mean, after all, who can forget Haley’s third quarter benching of Cassel in the Tennessee game and Weis’ reported displeasure with said “coaching moment?”

Okay, so I’ll go back to the first graph above and speculate some about when Haley might have taken a little too much control presumably and initiated Weis’ winter of discontent? Argue if you like. I welcome it.

Did you find it?

Based on the week-to-week performance of the Chiefs’ 2010 offense, I’m going to go ahead and suggest that Haley’s meddling in the playcalling probably began somewhere around Week 7 or 8 and very likely started to become intolerable (for Weis) by Week 13, in which our offense could only muster 10 points at home against the nearly defenseless Broncos. In Week 14, they were kept out of the end zone completely in that 31-0 road rout against the Chargers. Week 16 is when Haley made his bizarre move to bench Cassel in a 34-14 win over the Titans. Let’s not forget that Weis also announced his resignation in the week that followed the Cassel benching.  Is it too wild to think that Charlie must have said to himself at that point, “now I can really say I’ve seen it all?”

Then, of course, there was the now well-established incident of Weis “holding court” at his favorite Northland pizza parlor. But I digress.

I say things have never been the same for Cassel, nor the offense he leads, ever since Haley apparently started down the path of unplugging Weis from what was becoming a pretty efficient offense. One also has to wonder whether Brian Waters’s “mutual decision” to leave the Chiefs following the 2010 season had anything to do with the veteran lineman’s having been around the league long enough to know that he, like Weis, had also seen enough and that nothing good could ever come of Haley’s offensive (pun intended) tactics?

Enough of my wistful thoughts on Weis. Good luck to the Jayhawks, I say.

To close this out, let’s take a step back and try to get some sense of what seems to have transpired on the team development front over the last couple of years.

First off, I think it’s fair to say that our defense, even with the emergence and then subsequent loss of Eric Berry, has had its up and downs since the arrival of Romeo Crennel. In 2010, the Chiefs’ defense progressed and basically played very well through the first half of the season, but then kind of dropped off the screen in the latter half of the season. I believe the reason for this is that opposing teams knew that Brandon Flowers could cover and then came around to the fact that Brandon Carr was damn excellent in coverage as well. After that happened, the Chiefs’ inability to defend the run was fully exposed and thoroughly exploited.

In 2011, we lost Barry from the get-go, which further impaired our ability to limit the run. But week-by-week, the 2011 Chiefs defense steadily began to develop into a unit, that while not very good at collapsing the pocket or stuffing the run, could nevertheless keep teams from running all over them all day long, which, even with an impaired offense, would keep us in most games. I feel that even those 5 blow out losses were more the result of turnovers and miscues snowballing into catastrophes rather than run-first offenses having their way with the Chiefs’ defense.

Special Teams started off 2010 very impressively and went steadily downhill after that, only occasionally flashing signs of life in 2011. Steve Hoffman is no longer with the team and that’s probably for the best.

As mentioned earlier, our offense began its descent during Haley’s “3rd quarter” of the 2010 season and has really languished all through 2011. Matt Cassel only had one really outstanding appearance this year, that being against the 0-16 Colts. Yes, the Chiefs missed Jamaal Charles sorely in 2011. But I think it’s also not outside the realm of possibility to say that they also miss the talents of a guy like Charlie Weis a whole bunch too! Let’s all hope Crennel and Pioli can strike that kind of gold with their next OC hire.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take, Addicts?

Your favorite fake football statistician returns this week with a look at the Chiefs defense over the past three seasons. Make no mistake, the loss of Eric Berry was a major positional setback this past season but the real question is where the defensive unit as whole came together, grew more in terms of talent and depth and ultimately overcame the loss of the type of player who looks to fulfill a leadership role. Another great thought to consider, particularly in light of the Brandon Carr question, is whether our defensive secondary has significantly and steadily improved these past few years. Perhaps a minor element to also think about is whether Kelly Gregg’s signing represented an improvement, a step back, or status quo for the Chiefs front 7.

So let’s dive into some good old stat tables, courtesy of Football Outsiders, to see if we glean some answers about the State of the Chiefs, D-wise.

Generally speaking, the story is an encouraging one. According to Football Outsider’s methodology, the Chiefs have gone, over the course of two seasons, from being a rather poor defense, to a slightly above average defense. Most notably, our pass defense has gone from 31st in the league to 17th.

The big picture is that the Chiefs defense is not yet where most of us would like it to be but we definitely seem to be on the right track. Let’s hope the trend continues. With Berry’s return, along with some improvement from the front 7, I suspect it will.

To keep things simple, here’s some copy and paste directly from Football Outsiders that explains  what each of these columns represent (however, in this case, you must think in terms of how good a defense is at frustrating these offensive line efficiencies):

Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

• Losses: 120% value
• 0-4 Yards: 100% value
• 5-10 Yards: 50% value
• 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we (i.e., Football Outsider) normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry. Defensive line stats (more accurately, defensive front seven stats) represent the performance of offensive lines against each defense, adjusted for the quality of offensive opponents.

• 10+ Yards:Percentage of rushing yards against this team more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat. Teams are ranked from smallest number of 10+ Yards (#1) to largest number of 10+ Yards (#32).
• Power Success:Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks. Teams are ranked from lowest power success percentage allowed (#1) to highest power success percentage allowed (#32).
• Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Ranked from most stuffs (#1) to fewest stuffs (#32).

Basically, what I think you can take away from this is that the 2011 Chiefs front 7 still has its work cut out for it, particularly when it comes to stuffing the run and getting to the passer.  That said, they have made a lot of progress in terms of controlling the damage we’ve seen done in previous years when it comes to giving up big plays on the ground. In 2011, Chiefs opponents were not regularly taking it the house, week in and week out, like we’ve seen in so many previous years.

Here we see how much teams liked to run against the Chiefs and how successful they were when they did. This is pretty simple stuff actually. In 2011, opposing offenses liked to run a lot against the Chiefs relative to other NFL defenses and when they ran against the Chiefs, they saw the most success running either between the guards or between the right guard and the right tackle. The main thing this suggests to me, and also keeping in mind that the Chiefs are among the softest at stuffing the run, is that they desperately need to upgrade their nose tackle . . . and if not, then perhaps consider returning to a 4-3 defense as the base set.

Now, this table ties back to the two previous ones and tells us a little bit more about how successful opposing offenses were at exploiting the Chiefs’ soft spots.  Bottom line: opposing teams love to run straight at us. The reason? Because they can. What we want to see, is other teams sticking close to the league averages in terms of lane preferences. In other words (or as some might say “another words”), that would tend to suggest the Chiefs are more or less equally strong (or equally weak in the alternative) against the run all along their front 7.

Here we gain a little insight into the job the Chiefs defensive secondary, and linebackers in some cases,  are doing when called upon to cover.  This is, again, a positive tale for the most part. Carr and Flowers are doing an excellent job shutting down #1 WRs and also slot receivers, believe it not. The most glaring, obvious, and ongoing defeciency is the Chiefs inability to cover RBs on pass plays.  Scheme or talent? I tend to think the latter because if our front 7 did a better job at the pressuring the QB, there generally would not be enough time to identify and target that 4th or 5th read.

So there you have it. Resign Carr, get a real, honest-to-god nose tackle, and bring the rush.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take, Addicts?

This week I’ll try delving a bit into how much of an impact Todd Haley’s tenure as head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs had in terms of developing and/or improving (or not) our favorite team. Better yet, think of it as mid-contract progress report on Scott Pioli, courtesy of Football Outsiders stats.

But first, an editorial observation and comment. In varying degrees, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel have, of late, been soft selling the notion that Matt Cassel got us to the playoffs. I know this will probably sound a little crazy but for some reason, I’ve been operating under the belief that it was actually Jamaal Charles who got us there. Anyone care to dispute that?

Now if Clark Hunt is too cheap to pay Kyle Orton (who is an upgrade over Matt Cassel), to use if and until we acquire and develop our very own first-time-in-franchise-history franchise QB, fine so be it. Even so, is it too much to ask the Chiefs PR machine to please just stop insulting our intelligence with this whole “Matt Cassel can get us to the playoffs” nonsense? Matt Cassel is a guy who’s been lucky enough be around playoff teams. He most definitely is not the guy who takes his team to the playoffs. He’s just not. Sorry, but it is either ignorant or disingenuous to think or say otherwise.

Cue Kenny Rogers “Through the Years” aaaaand go . . .

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First off apologies for not getting my weekly contribution to Arrowhead Addict posted last week. I am making up for that by doubling up on the results and information from last week with those of this week. Today’s offering of Double Take marks the first of what I think will be a few post mortems about the 2011 season and hopefully provide our readers with the kind of information they need to understand what this team was in 2011 and maybe get a little bit of insight into where it might be headed.

The frustrating and often painful 2011 season ended for the Chiefs on Sunday. We no longer have the head coach with whom we started the season, we’ve watched an interim coach rebound with .667 record, and we’re now mulling over a few things – important things like who our head coach and starting quarterback should be. So, as always, we’re going to find out if our friends over at Football Outsiders can help us with that process, just after the jump.

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What a difference a week makes.

New coach, new quarterback, new team.

I’ve got to tell you that I will never, ever forget what I witnessed last Sunday nor the faces of the 20,000 Packers fan who were there all around me at Arrowhead when it suddenly dawned on them that this was one game that their team definitely would not win this season. Google the image “Stunned Disbelieving Disappointment” and you might see one of those faces. Google the image “Stunned Disbelieving Exhilaration” and you might see what my face looked like at that same moment.

Now if you were to guess, would you say the passing game or the running game was the biggest factor on offense that contributed to the Chiefs win? What about on defense? Pass rush or run defense? Who had the better game, Thos Jones or Jackie Battle? Who was most efficient when catching the ball, Steve Breaston, Dwayne Bowe, or someone else? Is it possible that the Chiefs just caught the Pack on an off day and got lucky?

Click on the Continue link below to find out if Football Outsiders DVOA Analysis offers any statistical evidence to help answer these types of questions.

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Slow week in the world of Kansas City Chiefs’ news. Thankfully at such times there’s always DVOA Stats to pour over and discuss.

Anticipate no further. We’ll see how our beloved 5-8 Chiefs are statistically fairing at this juncture of the season, courtesy Football Outsider’s weekly update, right after the jump.

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Thanks to what appeared to be some really solid defense, plus a little magic and luck, the Chiefs snuck out of Soldier Field with a surprising and close win over the Bears.

The Chiefs offense, under the iffy guidance of play-caller Todd Haley, QB Tyler Palko’s* arm, the running prowess of Thom Thumb, occasionally seasoned with a dash of McCluster and a splash of Battle, somehow did not give the game away.
*I can’t quite put a “finger” on when, but I thought I might have caught a fleeting glimpse of $2.3 million Kyle Orton in the game ever so briefly. Did anybody else see that – if you blinked you probably missed it.

That defense now. That right there was something special. Justin Houston what!? Those linebackers – something good’s beginning to form there, now isn’t it?

Curious to know how just how much, if at all, this game changed Football Outsiders’ analytic opinion of the Chiefs?

You’ll get your answers, son – beyond the break.

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So here we are. I sounded the alarm even before the Dolphins game that the Chiefs were in danger of only winning four games this season. Two weeks hence, that is looking like a much more realistic possibility than it did even then, agreed?

Anyway, why is that?

It is because the Chiefs are, generally speaking, a very soft, very weak team in the most important aspects of the game. To make matters worse, even after being humiliated by Miami, they did not rally, they did not refocus, they did not improve, they simply stagnated.

While I feel bad for Matt Cassel, it really does not matter that he got hurt. He was not playing well anyway.

Sigh.

Who or what is this team?

Breaking it down, courtesy Football Outsiders stats, after the jump.

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So how’d everyone in Addictville like that stinker last Sunday? Was it simply a case of the Chiefs looking ahead on the schedule and getting waylaid in what was an obvious trap gate? Or could it have been a telling signpost of more deep-rooted problems with this season’s edition of the Chiefs?

We’ll get into my thoughts on all that, along with some Football Outsiders stats in support, just beyond the jump.

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What an incredible, emotional, unforgettable game Monday night was. As happy and excited as everyone was, still is, and should be about that win, a loss would have been equally emotional, just in an extremely negative way. More devastating actually and we came very, very close to experiencing just that. Fate, as it has done for four games in a row now, smiled on the Chiefs once again. Be glad and rejoice.

I now must ask you to ask yourself some questions. By winning four consecutive games against otherwise flawed or unlucky teams, are you now feeling just a little bit like the Chiefs might be on the verge of “unstoppable force” class? Are you looking more forward to the games against New England and Pittsburgh because you’re totally convinced that the Chiefs will simply roll over the 0-7 Dolphins and the Tebowing Donkeys?

Not so fast.

Ground Control to Major Tom Tom, a dose of anti-homerish, unemotional, myth busting, courtesy Football Outsiders statistics, assuming you are up to hearing it, awaits beyond the jump.

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The Chiefs came away from Week 7 with an important and impressive road victory over their division rival, the Oakland Raiders. They also find themselves with a huge opportunity this Monday night to make another statement within the division when they face off in Arrowhead against the AFC West leading San Diego Chargers.

The stakes? Just a share of the division lead, that’s all. Who would’ve even thunk it after those two back-to-back debacles a mere five weeks ago?

For purposes of this article, the question of course is always “are the Chiefs now a better team than they were a week ago?”

I’ll try to come up with some kind of answer on that, courtesy Football Outsiders latest stats, beyond the break.

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Will the Raiders’ loss of Jason Campbell significantly alter the Chiefs’ odds of victory this week? How likely are we to stop Oakland’s ground game? Do the Raiders have any glaring weaknesses and if so, how can the Chiefs exploit them. We’ll turn to Football Outsiders stats for possible answers to those questions and more, right after the jump.
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So. The Chiefs handily put away another struggling team, this time on the road in a place we’ve never won before. Just on the surface, based on what we know so far, the Chiefs have proven they can beat weak teams but they have yet this season to prove they can beat teams that are playing strong.

Where does that leave us? Are we now a better team than we were after week 3 simply because our record is better? Or are we the same team as the one that stood at 0-3 and merely benefitting from a brief creampuff stretch in the schedule? Or, perish the thought, are we worse than we were two weeks ago, record schmecord?

Once again, we’ll peer into that beautiful mind that is statistical analysis, courtesy Football Outsiders and try to gain a little insight into whether the Chiefs are showing significant signs of improvement. Or not.

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After much anticipation and anxious clamoring, I return this week with my regular season mainstay. That’s right, Double D’s Double Take on just how well, or poorly, the Chiefs are performing in key areas, courtesy of Football Outsider’s DVOA analysis.

For those of you unfamiliar with the DVOA ranking methodology, I’ll simply provide, after the jump, the same rundown that I gave last year. If you are interested in a more detailed (and perhaps more useful) explanation, go here.

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Okay, not really.

There’s actually a few good reasons why I am referencing Football Outsiders today though and why I think that what they have to say is worth hearing. The first is because last year, using several factors*, they projected the Chiefs to win the AFC West. Guess what? They were spot on. The second reason is that I like their methods and areas of evaluation and rely on them quite a bit throughout the season in forming my own opinions about where the Chiefs stand at any given point.

*Among other things, these factors include strength of schedule, weather, trends, quarterbacks, draft history, injuries, offensive/defensive paces, various splits, coaching experience, on and on and then they run it all through 10,000 simulations.

What Football Outsiders predicts for the Chiefs in 2011 and related items just beyond the jump.
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The week prior, I brought a similar analysis with our latest addition to the Thriller B’s, WR Steve Breaston. As with Gregg, the stats suggest that Breaston promises to bring significant improvement to our WR corps.

For this week’s installment, I’ll assess what FB Le’Ron “McTrain” McClain adds to the Chiefs stable of offensive backs. All that, después del jumpo.
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Before I delve into the title subject matter, I want to first say a few words about our remaining rookie holdout. There are now only 4 unsigned rookies in the league, 3 of them of 1st rounders. Guess which one of those 4 was not a 1st round pick?

Justin, dude, are you freaking high? Probably shouldn’t answer that, huh? You were a 3rd round pick for reasons that nobody but yourself are to blame. Own up to it, live with it, move on; you are, without question, not making life any better for yourself by following the course you are on.

At this point, there is no acceptable explanation for Justin Houston’s hold out unless he’s not ready, physically, mentally, and/or emotionally, to play football in the NFL. If that is the problem, then I really have to start questioning whether this is a guy I still want on my team. If that’s not the problem, then he is just hurting himself as a result of some very flawed reasoning. Rookie salaries are now more slotted than ever and given where he was taken in the 3rd round, there can be no financial aspect to this deal that is worth quibbling over.

Honestly, I’m beginning to feel both sorry and embarrassed for Scott Pioli about this pick.

Kelly “Queequeg” Gregg after the bounce.

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I’m sure everyone is fairly familiar with the 2008 offensive juggernaut that swept the Cards into the Superbowl so I won’t rehash that. We know the story. A more relevant question for us Chiefs fans is what happened after that and how prominently did Breaston feature in or contribute to the post-Superbowls Cards, for better or for worse?

We’ll delve into some of that despues del jumpo.
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2010 saw Cassel improved in every way imaginable.  His quarterback rating increased a staggering 23.1 points to 93.0.  All of Cassel’s other statistics improved as well, including completion percentage, total yards, yards per attempt, yards per game, touchdowns, and interceptions.

While Cassel has been working hard in the off-season to improve his skills, Cassel’s continued improvement in 2011 will greatly depend on Jamaal Charles.  If Charles has another great season in 2011 look for the Chiefs and Cassel to be back in the playoff hunt.  However, if Charles performance slips from 2010 it could be a long season for both Cassel and the Chiefs.

You may be asking yourself how a quarterback’s performance can fluctuate based on his running backs performance.  In Cassel’s case it is directly tied to how many time Charles touches the football.

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Suggested reading, further insights, intriguing stats, and maybe a popular assumption or two challenged beyond the jump.

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Another scenario with special relevance for the Chiefs that I thought it might be interesting to consider is how often teams that were last in their division one year, made it to the playoffs for at least two consecutive years thereafter? The answer, along with a few corollary thoughts right after the jump.
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Breaking this down a little further, position-by-position, the following table shows how the Chiefs starting OL compared to their respective average OL counterparts. (I am using Richardson’s dimensions for RT even though NFL.com for some inexplicable reason listed O’Callaghan as our starting RT).

At all positions other than Center and Right Guard, the Chiefs are pretty much in line with league averages. Weigmann and Lilja however are a bit shorter and significantly lighter than their average NFL counterparts. In fact, Weigmann and Lilja were the two lightest lineman at their respective positions out of the entire NFL. Is that good, bad, or does it even matter? Well, it can be good and bad, and in certain key situations, it matters a lot. I’ll explain what I mean by that right after the jump.
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As a natural follow up to last week’s DVOA breakdown of the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line, this week we take a look at how our defensive line fared using the same analysis. The prevailing consensus seems to be that Glen Dorsey is making good progress, Tyson Jackson still has a lot of question marks, and we need to upgrade at Nose Tackle. Are these all fair assessments?

Well, we’ll find out if Football Outsider’s DVOA analytical assessment of our defensive line justifies those popular opinions, or, maybe, just maybe, throws us any surprises – right after the jump.
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For this week’s edition of Double Take, we get to see whether Football Outsider’s DVOA analytical assessment of our offensive line offers us anything tangible towards those ends, just beyond the jump.
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After an uninspiring, if not downright worrisome, 1st quarter in last Sunday’s game against the Rams, the Kansas City Chiefs hunkered down and put together what looked like a pretty solid performance on both sides of the ball. Matt Cassel treated us to a “gutsy” performace just 11 days after losing his appendix. He showed sound footwork, worked the pocket near perfectly, and put great touch on several of his passes.

The real question is, did the Chiefs show significant improvement as a team or were they more the beneficiaries of getting to beat up on another soft NFC West team? We’ll find out whether the latest DVOA stats shed any light on that question just beyond the jump.
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Anyone who has listened to Kansas City Chiefs Head Coach Todd Haley speak about the goals for his team knows that he is particularly fond of stating that he just wants his team to get a little better each week. After reflecting on the graph below, it seems fair to ask whether Haley is failing to achieve his stated goal? Somewhere starting after week 5, certainly after week 8, the Chiefs began a trend that, more weeks than not, shows them either tending to not improve or just getting worse, with the overall trend clearly favoring the latter. Was last Sunday’s SoCal debacle little more than the fruition of just how bad Haley has allowed his team to become?

Much more after the jump.
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Speaking of recent qualifiers, I’d say last Sunday’s victory over the Broncos probably met the “tough to watch, but we’ll take the win” criteria. San Diego’s unexpected loss also helped inch the Chiefs a little closer to qualifying for the post season – not a bad day any way you look at it. My feelings about how the Chiefs performed against the Broncos are actually fairly positive. While there were mistakes and missed opportunities, I firmly believe the Chiefs did exactly what they needed to do – play their game. Specifically, as long as they could shut down Kyle Orton and Denver’s passing attack, nothing else really mattered. Ugly execution perhaps, but undeniably effective.

Ready for this week’s DVOA stats? Let’s see if the Denver game tells us anything new about what kind of team the Chiefs are as they head into San Diego for a divisional showdown, right after the jump.
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Where are the Chiefs after two division losses on the road? Well, among other things, were the season to end today, Oakland would be in, Chiefs would be out. Things that make you go hmm.

For me, the questions that matter most right now are:

1. Were these two recent losses examples of what can happen to any team on any given Sunday, or indicative of bigger problems?

2. Are our players getting better, staying the same, or losing a step as this season progresses? In other words, are there tangible signs that Todd Haley and his staff are developing personnel and if so, who?

3. What are the areas of play and positions that most need to improve?

4. What is the likelihood that we can recover from these two losses and end up edging out the rest of the division down the stretch?

We’ll find out if the latest DVOA analysis provides any new insights to those questions beyond the jump.

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A close, frustrating, and in my opinion, unnecessary loss to the number 2 team in our division who just so happens to also be our most hated rival. I watched in utter disbelief as we repeatedly attempted to crash Thomas Jones into one of the best, if not the best, run stuffing D-Lines in the NFL. Exactly what were our great offensive minds trying prove with that? That they no longer need to rely on scouting reports as part of their routine game day prep? I seriously do not know if I should characterize this strategy as arrogance or stupidity? Really can’t quite decide on that – perhaps both?

Special Teams giving up that TD on the kickoff return to start the second half was crushing. It wiped away what was a truly outstanding first half defensive effort on our part and emboldened the Raiders and their fans by letting them right back into the game. I warned about the ongoing decline of our special teams play in my previous column and sure enough that chicken came home to roost in a big, unwelcome way on Sunday. Bad special teams = losses.

Now that the sour taste is beginning to wear away (a bit) and the statistical dust has settled, we’ll find out what kind of a team DVOA says we are at the season’s midway point and maybe get an indication of which way we appear to be headed following last Sunday’s disappointment, just beyond the jump.
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Another Sunday afternoon’s come and went, this time with the Chiefs narrowly dodging a Buffalo Bill bullet fired squarely our way down at the ol’ Arrowhead Corral. Some say a win is a win is a win while others are not feeling so winningly considering the drama of OT, the final score, the apparent quality of the opponent, the play selection, certain coaching decisions, pick your peeve.

So how do you feel about it? Was it a good win or a bad win? Did Matt Cassell progress or regress on Sunday? What about our offensive line without Lilja? How much did we miss DMC? We’ll find out if the cold, hard numbers can shed some light on any of these burning questions, right after the jump.
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