It’s that time of year again, when we all scour every mock draft we can find and endlessly ponder and argue about what the Chiefs should do once April 25^th rolls around.

Everyone has an opinion, most formed forged by a mix of personal preferences, tape study, and a survey of mocks and expert commentary. The problem is that draft science is far from a real science and Mel Kiper Jr. is not god. In fact, the man is our creation – he exists as a result of our obsession and boredom this time of year, and don’t get me wrong, I listen to his podcast, read his articles and scan through all of his mocks. Still, that is far from meaning that the Chiefs should take his advice on Draft day.

The big theme of this round of draft chatter is about how none of the QB’s are worthy of the first overall pick so therefore the Chiefs should steer clear of them with their first selection, choosing instead one of the standout pass-rushers or linemen.

Perhaps it’s my background as a journalist, but I hate groupthink and that includes the conventional wisdom that builds up around this time every year and then gets shattered by the guys actually making the decisions. Let’s be clear, regardless of whatever the self-styled draft scientists say, the player that is worth the Chiefs 1^st pick is the player most likely to make the team better, Kiper’s big board be damned.

To me, it is obvious that this player is whoever the Chiefs deem to be the best quarterback prospect available. I believe that player to be Geno Smith, but what John Dorsey thinks is far more important than my amateur evaluation. In the coming weeks I will go through and detail why the Chiefs shouldn’t pick each individual other prospect that the so-called experts have mocked to them, but for now, I just want to point out that Dorsey has a much better track record than the “experts” when it comes to drafting quality players.

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Let’s compare the Packers’ 1^st-round picks since 2005 with what the scientists wanted them to choose:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Pick #: 28

Result: Jury Still Out. Perry started five games this season and racked up a couple of sacks, but couldn’t stay healthy and finished the year on injured reserve with a wrist injury.

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2011: T Derek Sherrod

Pick #: 32

Result: Jury Still Out. I know it seems like a cop-out, but Sherrod has also seen limited time due to injury. He broke both the tibia and fibula in his leg during the team’s stunning loss to the Chiefs in 2011 and hasn’t been back on the field since. Before then, he started five games giving up no sacks but generating concern in Green Bay about his grasp of the fundamentals.

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2010: T Bryan Bulaga

Pick #: 23

Result: High-end starter. Drafted late in the round, Bulaga has played right tacklke for three years “near a Pro Bowl level” and will get a shot at playing left tackle in 2013, according to the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

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2009: B.J. Raji

Pick #: 9

Result: Franchise player. Raji is a major force at his position and a difference-maker in games.

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

2009: LB Clay Mathews

Pick #: 26

Result: Franchise player. Ditto for Matthews. 42.5 sacks since being drafted. ‘Nuff said.

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2007: DT Justin Harrell

Pick #: 16

Result: Bust due to injury. There is an odd theme to injury being the bane of the Packers’ most promising young players, but it was again the case here. He was cut in 2011 after four disappointing seasons, which the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel summed up thusly: “Harrell never quite had a chance to cash in on his potential as injuries robbed him each season.” Still, he was drafted with a torn bicep suffered in college and was a risky pick on the behalf of the Packers’ front office.

2006: OLB A.J. Hawk

Pick #: 5

Result: High-end starter. ESPN insider describes him as: “an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is an instinctive player who understands angles and how to the leverage the football. He has improved attacking the line of scrimmage being more physical on contact. He is solid as a zone coverage defender but may get exposed in combination man schemes.”

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2005: QB Aaron Rodgers

Pick #: 24

Result: Living legend. A-Rodg probably has to get another Super Bowl victory to punch his ticket to Canton, but he is one of the best three quarterbacks playing this game right now, possibly the very best.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

All and all, not a bad haul for eight first-round picks – one bust, two high-end starters, two franchise players, and one superstar that will define this generation for the team. I don’t need to remind you of what the Chiefs got themselves through these years, but suffice to say it is significantly less stellar.

How did the experts do? Well, this is what Kiper, king of the draftniks, wanted Green Bay to do all of these years:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Ok, this one was sort of obvious. Green Bay needed a pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews and Perry was projected to be the only one available at this spot.

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Ditto. Also shows that these iffy picks were eminently popular.

2010:  G Mike Iupati

Real pick #: 17 by San Francisco

Result: High-end starter. Scouts Inc. has him ranked as the 49ers’ 6^th best player.

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2009: CB Malcom Jenkins

Real pick #: 14 by New Orleans

Result: Good starter. The Saints moved him to free safety where he shows good overall skills on that dreadful defense but hasn’t been a difference maker. He has four interceptions in four seasons.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2008: CB Antoine Cason

Real pick #: 27 by San Diego

Result: High-end starter. He gives up big plays, but is overall still a solid d-back. His Madden 13 overall rating was 86, which is pretty dern good.

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2007: RB Marshawn Lynch

Real pick #: 12 by Buffalo

Result: High-end starter. Lynch is a borderline franchise player and definitely would have been a good pick for Green Bay if Buffalo hadn’t snatched him four picks earlier. It’s also important to note, however, that Lynch was a trouble-maker who washed out for his first team, which very well could have been the Packers instead of the Bills.

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2006: A.J. Hawk

Right again! Rival expert Todd McShay had the Packers taking TE Vernon Davis. Now that would be scary.

2005: S/OLB (?) Thomas Davis

Real pick #: 14 by Carolina

Result: Mediocre player. Davis’ biggest problems lately have been health. He only played nine games in three seasons from 2009 to 2011 and didn’t stand out in 15 starts in 2012, picking up 68 tackles, no sacks and one interception for the Panthers.

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So matched up against the real Green Bay front office, Kiper would have gotten for them four high-end starters plus one good and one mediocre player vs. one superstar, two franchise players, two high-end starters and a bust. That, of course is what conventional wisdom brings – low-risk moves that pay off but make no home runs.

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Was 24 the right spot for Aaron Rodgers to be drafted? Well, we know now that it definitely was not. Instead, Alex Smith was taken 1^st overall that year followed by RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cedric Benson, RB Cadillac Williams and CB Pacman Jones. Why? Well, it was a strong running back draft class, just like this is a strong draft for defensive front-seven players.

This is why the “best player available” philosophy is always so misunderstood. Best player available doesn’t mean “next player on Kiper’s Big Board” or “the consensus pick by the draft scientists.” It means finding a player with something special that you can envision helping your team, possibly leading it to the promised land. John Dorsey is much better at that part of the game than any of the talking heads, and has proven it.

Forget about what the crowd says would be “good value” for Chiefs #1 pick. Good value is going to be getting the best quarterback for the future we can. Trading Albert for a young tackle prospect is not good value. Picking up another overhyped D-lineman or undersized pass-rusher isn’t either.

In short, don’t listen to the chatter. Dorsey’s got this.

Jan 22, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey discusses with his scouts and coaches following the Senior Bowl South Squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Cue broken record that’s been playing since 2009:

Bowe is the entire passing game. Charles is the entire running game. With one out, it’s exceedingly easy for even the worst defense in football to shut down the other. There are no quarterbacks on this roster better than low-end backups.

Madden 2013’s automatic play picking system would be far more creative than this coaching staff. Brian Daboll has no coaching philosophy, he calls the offense like a frustrated child plays video games. He’s now switched from kicking field goals on every 4^th down in enemy territory to going for it on every other 4^th down, even when it is obvious to all that it won’t work.

The Chiefs last possession was a microcosm of all of this. They started at their own 29 yard line with 4:51 left, needing to score two touchdowns and a two-point conversion to tie. The drive went like this:

Note: Daboll’s thinking in italics, any sane football-watcher’s in bold.

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1st and 10 at KC 29: Well, they’ve shut down the run and we need to be quick about it, so let’s throw a short pass. Except that’s the only kind of pass Quinn can (sometimes) complete, and the Raiders are also aware of the clock.

Result: (Shotgun) B.Quinn pass short middle to T.Moeaki to KC 38 for 9 yards (T.Branch).

2nd and 1 at KC 38: Ooo, since there’s only one yard to go, I bet they’re expecting us to run since we obviously need to get something going here and our QB is awful. I’ll show them! I’ll go no huddle and throw it deep down field! Yeah! Except there’s no benefit to using the no huddle to keep the same defensive lineup on the field for a new play because the previous play was a pass look as well, and, as for faking the run, well, lining up in shotgun isn’t the best way to do that. Also, Quinn throwing deep to Baldwin is statistically the play with the lowest success rate the Chiefs have. They’d be better off trying a fake FG here.

Result: (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Quinn pass incomplete deep right to J.Baldwin (M.Huff).

3rd and 1 at KC 38: Ah, shucks, that didn’t work like it usually doesn’t. Well, now we really, really need to get this 1^st down and keep it moving. They’ll never expect a draw play on 3^rd and 1! That’s exactly what anyone would expect.

Result: J.Charles up the middle to KC 38 for no gain (T.Branch).

Unnecessarily burn a second Timeout by KC at 03:59.

4th and 1 at KC 38: Ok. Quinn has been a 56% passer so far this game and has even missed guys on screens. The offensive line is one of the few relative bright spots on this team, especially in the run game. We have a $3-million short-yardage back and could also probably get this with a QB sneak. So … yeah, let’s call another pass to a player behind the line of scrimmage. But, just to be creative, let’s not even fake the run and line up in the shotgun. Yeah! That’ll show ‘em. This call is only unpredictable in that it is easy to defend and incredibly stupid on every level.

Result: (Shotgun) B.Quinn pass short right to D.McCluster to KC 38 for no gain (J.Hanson).Turnover on downs.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs need to draft the best quarterback they can get their hands on. In fact, they need to draft two of the best quarterbacks they can get their hands on. Everyone was making fun of Shanahan for grabbing RGIII in the first round this year and then grabbing QB Kirk Cousins with the team’s selection in the 3^rd round.

Well, those naysayers aren’t complaining after Cousins took the start this week and went 26/37 for 329 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT and a passer rating of 104.5 in a 38-21 win over the Browns, who beat the Chiefs 30-7 last week.

I see a lot of people in the comments section saying we need cornerback help too, but we are currently young at the position and I just don’t see it as a major need. Given the fact that the defense was on the field for more than 40 minutes Sunday against the 7^th-ranked passing offense in the league and they didn’t allow a touchdown, I think we’re doing ok there. Furthermore, if you look at what Andrew Luck and RGIII have done on teams that have dreadful defenses, I think it’s clear that cornerback depth wasn’t what was keeping them from being competitive last year.

For now, I think Daboll needs to be relegated to high school football, Matt Cassel should be promoted to OC (at least give him something to do other than brood on the sidelines) and Stanzi and Tanney should be the only QB’s suiting up next Sunday. They’re probably way worse than Quinn and Cassel and so be it. I’m going to be at the game next week and all I know is that I don’t want to see Quinn every take another snap in that uniform again.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

One of the best ways to pass the boring July days without football is to play endless hours of Madden.

The good news is, both the NFL season and Madden 13 are right around the corner. M13 is featuring a new physics engine that from all the promos looks like it could finally be the game-changer Madden fans have been waiting for. We’ll have a review of the new game later this summer but for now, I thought I’d share the initial team ratings with you if you haven’t seen them yet.

The first thing that you will notice here is that the ratings for teams, on the whole, are much lower than normal. Not a single team has a rating of 87 or highers, so while KC’s rating is lower than you might have expected, it is important to frame your thinking with that knowledge.

I can live with this as an initial offering. I like that the Chiefs have the same rating as Denver, though I am not sure why SD gets the nod as the division leader. I think they belong on the same line as KC and Denver. Also, Cam Newton is awesome and all ,but what the heck are the Panthers doing rated higher than the Chiefs?

The Raiders, who I think got worse this offseason, took a bad tumble. They’re near the bottom of the league with a 70.

What do you think, Addicts? Are there any other teams the Chiefs should be rated higher than?