We are smack in the middle of the offseason dead zone and I know we’re all going to be writing a lot of sentences like: “the complex LT Branden Albert situation” or “the team’s dealings with Albert have yet to play out” etc., etc.

Sam Mellinger summed it up pretty well:

This is an inherently combustible situation — a good player who wants to be paid like a great one, working on a one-year contract on the other side of the line from a younger and better player who was just the first overall draft pick. If Albert was uneasy before, now he will be playing with his obvious replacement. If nothing changes, a season like this will be one filled with land mines.

I’m going to make this much easier.

Albert, take $6 million a year or we’re letting you walk.

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Don’t get me wrong, I think Albert is a good player and I’m also not as offended as most fans by his “attitude” – i.e. negotiating hard by sitting out of one voluntary camp. I also think that we may have the best set of bookend tackles in the league this year.

Even so, unless the Chiefs have far and away the world’s best offensive line in 2013 and it’s clear that it will be seriously harmed if Albert is not a part of it in 2014, it is simply not worth it to overpay for him.

Let’s be clear about what Albert is for us long-term – a right tackle. It’s a luxury that we have both Albert, an experienced above average left tackle, and 1^st-round pick Eric Fisher, a versatile, team-first guy that is willing to play right tackle this year. But, beyond this season, we really need to put guys in the positions where they can fully realize their potential. Fisher is a left tackle; that’s what he excelled at in college, that’s what we drafted him to be.

So far, Albert has shown no particular interest in being a right tackle, and I imagine that if push came to shove he would prefer to make left tackle money somewhere else than play for the Chiefs. Left tackles get paid significantly more in this league and that’s the position he wants to play. I don’t blame him for wanting out after this season.

Another variable in all of this is that we’re not entirely sure Albert would play right tackle well once Fisher takes over on the left side. Still, if we want to keep him, we have to offer him a right tackle contract – a generous one, granted – and call it good.

In the thick of the haggling between the Chiefs and the Dolphins over possibly trading Albert came a report that Miami was willing to offer Albert the contract he wanted as a part of the deal – a six-year, $53.4 million extension similar to what Texans LT Duane Brown got. That averages to $8.9 million a year, just a bit less than the franchise tag number and would make him the fourth-highest paid player on the team after OLB Tamba Hali, WR Dwayne Bowe and DE Tyson Jackson (if he comes back with that salary in 2014, a questionable prospect).

Simply put, a smart organization doesn’t lock up that kind of money in an RT. With that kind of contract, the Chiefs would be paying out $13 million to $14 million a year on our three tackles. To put that number in perspective, the Chiefs spent $5,873,835 on the contacts of all six of the team’s interior offensive linemen. Only six teams spent more than $12 million on their tackles last year – Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Miami, Washington and Tennessee. Obviously this wasn’t the only factor, but you will notice that only two of those teams had a winning record last year. The two teams in the Super Bowl each had less than $7 million locked up in the tackle position.

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So, if Albert wants to stay and be the one of the best-paid right tackles in football, great. He made $4,192,500 last year, so $6 million is a 43% percent pay increase. Not too bad. But, the Chiefs should not offer a dollar more. This saves us more than$3 million this year and we can use that to bring in another good player or two at a different position. Our new #2 WR Donnie Avery is averaging less than $3 million a year. So is NT Dontari Poe, WR Dexter McCluster and OLB Justin Houston

If Albert thinks he can get more on the open market, the Chiefs should allow him to give it a shot. If he does get more, then that contract offer will guarantee that the Chiefs will get at least a 4^th-round, but probably a 3^rd-round compensatory pick for him, which is essentially all the team would have gotten for him in the trade to Miami.

Either way, everyone wins.

I think we’re all still trying to wrap our heads around the new regime’s first draft and its apparent strategy moving forward.

While most fans have been hoping to see the team tick as many need boxes as possible in the course of the three days at Radio City Music hall, that doesn’t appear to be the way that Chiefs GM John Dorsey does things. It seems that Dorsey views free agency as a means to fill holes, while the Draft serves to add talent, regardless of position.

The team selected SEC players with its compensatory 3^rd-rounder, its 4^th and its 5^th-round pick but the rest of players it took were from relatively small programs. 1^st overall pick OT Eric Fisher was the first player from the MAC selected that high in the conference’s history. DE/OLB Mike Catapano became the first Princeton player drafted in 12 years. NFL fans worldwide suddenly learned that there is a University of California … in Pennsylvania … after Kansas City picked C Eric Kush in the 6^th round.

Chiefs fans who were furiously googling these guys likely found very little – often not even a photograph. On one hand, the obscurity of these names showed that Dorsey and Chiefs HC Andy Reid have been doing their homework and were digging for diamonds in the rough. On the other hand, one wondered whether these guys were even on any other team’s draft boards.

I think it shows that the new regime is realistic about what it is going to get from the Draft. This is a team that counts on getting prospects – not players – from the Draft. With virtually all the team’s needs filled through free agency, late April was a time to pick up some young, unfinished products. The two big knocks against small school players is that they are difficult to evaluate due to the quality of the opponents they faced on tape and they are also expected to have a longer, tougher transition to the NFL.

But, for Fisher, Kush, Catapano, and TE Travis Kelce, that won’t be a problem, they won’t be expected to make major contributions this year. With the exception of Fisher, who will likely end up as the team’s full-time right tackle this year, the other small school guys have a line of veterans ahead of them.

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However, it would be a mistake to view these guys as purely depth players. One of the biggest blind spots in Draft coverage is that commentators tend to only look at each team’s current needs and evaluate their draft on how those picks fit with what the team will need in the coming season. The reality is that actual front offices are looking much further to the 2014 and 2015 seasons – especially regimes in their first year or with solid job security.

Indeed, one of the over-looked aspects of the Chiefs’ draft was not how they added pieces for this season, but rather how it shows they are building the team for 2014.

Take a quick look at the list of Chiefs starters whose contracts will be up in the next two years and you’ll see what I mean. The notables include (presumed starters in italics):

Free Agents in 2014:

WR Dexter McCluster (slot)

TE Tony Moeaki

S Kendrick Lewis

G Jon Asamoah

G Geoff Schwartz

RB Shaun Draughn (3^rd down back)

Free Agents in 2015:

C Rodney Hudson

FB Anthony Sherman

WR Jonathan Baldwin

DE Allen Bailey

RB Nate Eachus

QB Alex Smith

Looking at this list and projecting that most of the 2013 draft class will sit this year now makes sense. All three of the Chiefs’ starting interior O-linemen are up for free agency in the next two years and the only one who we have under contract until 2015 is Hudson, who is a bit of a question mark coming off of a broken leg. In this situation, it makes perfect sense to take a high-upside center from a small school knowing that he may have to step in at one of those three interior roles in the next two years.

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Similarly, despite the fact that the Chiefs already had two good blocking/pass-catching tight ends in Moeaki and Anthony Fasano, it makes perfect sense to draft Kelce knowing that Moeaki is injury-prone and in a contract year. Kelce may not see the field this year, but his presence on the roster gives the team options at TE next year when Moeaki will be looking at the door. Depending on how Moeaki plays and his health holds up, he may be disposable or he may be valuable, but the team will have a better bargaining hand with Fasano locked up long-term and a young, dynamic tight end in the wings who will be playing on a cheap, multi-year contract.

The same goes for the running back position behind RB Jamaal Charles. Third-round pick Knile Davis was the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiefs draft. He’s been banged up and last put up good tape in 2011. Spending a year in the meeting rooms as the #4 RB will hopefully allow him to heal up and be ready to take up the reins as the contracts for the two guys ahead of him come to an end.

Both De’Quan Menzie (who spent his rookie season on IR) and 5^th-round pick Sanders Commings project as CB/S hybrids and both have the big bodies and hard-hitting style to make them potential replacements for Lewis, who is oft-injured and also in a contract year.

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I should say that I don’t necessarily expect these draft picks to replace all of the incumbents, but you have to admire the cleverness and forethought that Dorsey brings to this front office. No matter what happens this season, he has already set up the team to have flexibility and depth at positions where it will potentially be vulnerable after the next round of free agency.

The one big looming 2015 free agent on that list is obviously Smith and anyone’s guess is as good as mine what the team’s opinion of him will be when February 2015 rolls around. He may have just won us a championship; he may have proven to be garbage without the mentorship of 49ers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

I also have absolutely no idea what to expect out of UDFA QB Tyler Bray. He may turn into something, he may turn into nothing. What I do know is that the team wagered absolutely nothing on him so even if his ceiling is that of an average backup, it will have been a sound move.

One way or the other, given that Smith is 29, don’t be surprised to see a quarterback taken high in next year’s draft regardless of how he plays in 2013. His contract will be up the following year and this is just how Dorsey rolls.

In a strange way, this past draft – one of the most boring in recent memory – was the most interesting.

Four days ago, the new tandem of Head Coach Andy Reid and General Manager John Dorsey practically had a tabula rasa in the eyes of Chiefs fans. We could speculate on how they would change the franchise based on past decisions on different clubs. But, even there, they were not the sole decision-makers. This offseason is the first real peephole into how they will run this team for however long they are allowed to do so.

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The main theme? When Dorsey says “best player available” he means best player available, regardless of position or the grades of other teams. The first pick that illustrated this was the first pick of the 2013 Draft.

We may never know how the trade negotiations between Dorsey and Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland went (although I’d like to think it was similar in tenor to the way that the Amateur Hour Podcast role-played it out), but we know those talks did not end in a trade of LT Brandon Albert to Miami. For the past three months, the greatest certainty in our predictions of what the Chiefs would do at 1^st overall hinged on Albert’s fate.

Our good-but-not-great tackle was not traded by the time the Chiefs were required to turn in their card and select their first player. Nonetheless, the team picked another left tackle in Eric Fisher. Value is value in Dorsey’s eyes, and even without having moved the team’s current LT, he wanted to make the most of that pick and grabbed the guy who he felt was the best prospect in this Draft.

Then, after a very long wait for those who were watching the whole proceedings unfold, the Chiefs selected a tight end. This, also, was clearly not a need-driven pick. While he may not have sparkled quite as much since his magical 2010 season, TE Tony Moeaki, who was on IR throughout 2011, still has the potential to be a productive two-way TE in this league. Similarly, the new regime quickly signed TE Anthony Fasano in free agency who is similarly one of the best block-and-catch tight ends.

So, why pick TE Travis Kelce, who fits the same mold, at the top of the 3^rd round? Well, obviously, Dorsey would not have used his second pick in the Draft on him unless he thought Kelce could be as good or better than what we already have on the team. The fact is that – paired with decent quarterbacks or no – Moeaki has produced very little outside of that 2010 season. More to the point, Dorsey is looking for value wherever he finds it. Kelce was high on his board and still available, so he took him, no questions asked.

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What followed was probably the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiefs 2013 draft: RB Knile Davis. In a draft that was thick with running backs in the mid rounds, Davis was expected by many to be an undrafted free agent. But, on the other hand, he fits Reid’s system perfectly. Line up the tape of Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and the former Razorback Davis and  you see plenty of similarities. Just like with McCoy, the commentating class are questioning Davis’ top end speed, and his ability to get it done with his small frame.

But, whether you like it or not, these are the kinds of guys that Coach Reid covets. He is looking for slightly undersized quick guys with vision to for the hole. McCoy has become a stud in this league and he was picked in the middle of the second round. Davis, who clocked in with a 4.37 40 time at the combine, got grabbed at the bottom of the 3^rd. I’m not saying that he will be as good as McCoy, but I don’t think this pick was as surprising as many made it out to be. He is consistent with the model of an Andy Reid running back, and he may have been the only pure Reid guy in this draft.

After picking three players that landed in currently crowded position groups, the new regime then ticked a need by selecting Alabama LB Nico Johnson at the top of the 4^th round. Initially, I wasn’t crazy about this pick. Basically all evaluations described him as a purely run-stuffing two-down linebacker who might be stout in the early downs but would be a liability in coverage. Immediately , this reminded me of the late Jovan Belcher, whose murderous departure from both life and team punctuated the Chiefs’ worst season in recent memory.

That tragic mess aside, we were already talking this time last year about the need to replace him or at least give him significant competition as we needed a guy able to chase down tight ends and wide receivers on 1^st and 2^nd down and he was particularly exposed in those situations. Nico Johnson doesn’t give us much more in that department.

However, we also have a new defensive coordinator and scheme. We are yet to see how DC Bob Sutton plans to use Nico and the rest of the defense, so it is possible that by getting the best “thumper” LB in the draft, the Chiefs put the last piece in place.

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In a similar vein, the choice of CB Sanders Commings in the 5^th round seemed strange, but after looking at his highlight tape, it became quickly clear that the Chiefs likely viewed him as more of a safety prospect than a CB that would add to our full stable of cornerbacks. Commings is a big, fast and physical guy who didn’t show the skills to be one of the top-rated cornerbacks, but he definitely has the talent to step in the place of the Chiefs’ oft-injured FS Kendrick Lewis.

Either way, I think there will now be some genuine competition in the defensive backfield and the same way that Reid says he likes to put his best five offensive linemen on the field, I think we will see the best five DB’s on the field in nickel situations, which could lead to some really interesting combinations.

Also, having five very good D-backs allows you to take your run-stuffing ILB off the field … a plan seems to be emerging here.

The last three picks in rounds 6 and 7 I believe have to be viewed as special teamers and practice squad guys until proven otherwise. Generally, the selection of a fullback screams “special teams stud” – KSU fans please let me know if I am wrong in this particular instance.

So, what do we take from this? Well, we had already gotten a hint of this from free agency. Dorsey does not want this team to be a leaky ship on paper. There will be no holes and any young prospect coming in will have to compete and will be chosen purely on their talent. They will not be drafted and expected to fill some void that the team left open like with WR Jon Baldwin. I don’t know if this strategy will work, but the man has credibility coming from the Green Bay Packers.

For four years we had all been adjusting to the Patriots Way, whatever the hell that meant, but now we are starting to get a glimpse of this new identity that Dorsey and Reid will be imprinting upon our Kansas City squad.

What do you think, Addicts? Tired of imported philosophies, or do you think this one will work?

We are now two days out from the Chiefs’ 1^st-round pick being announced at Radio City Music Hall.

In a normal year, there would be very little suspense at this point for us fans. We’d already be talking about the contract details of the team’s assumed new player and what will happen later in the draft. But, as we all know, this is a strange year and a strange draft class. And, the LT Brandon Albert ball is still in the air.

So, here are the probabilities for what I think is going to happen. Feel free to chime in with your own.

1.) Will Albert be traded before the Draft officially begins?

80% Yes, 20% No.

If I’m the Chiefs, I want to make sure this deal gets done before I send my envelope to the podium. The Dolphins seem dead-set on nailing an LT in this draft, but the 2^nd-rounder they would send to the Chiefs for the trade could also potentially be used by them to trade up into the top seven to pick one of the top LT prospects. They may even prefer this option because they’d have the guy under contract for four years, he’ll be cheaper and younger, and can grow with their new quarterback.

Still, given that the talks have gotten this deep, it looks like the Chiefs simply need to act on it – with compensation perhaps a bit lower than they expect. Trading Albert essentially locks the Chiefs into taking one of the two LT prospects Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher and it’s unlikely they will be able to sign Albert to a long-term deal and trade him for much value if they both keep him this year and draft his replacement. I think they have considerable incentives to seal the deal before lights hit the stage in New York.

2.) Who will the Chiefs pick?

50% Luke Joeckel, 30% Eric Fisher, 12% OLB Dion Jordan, 5% DT Shariff Floyd, 3% DT Star Lotulelei

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Again, the Albert trade looks like all but a done deal, but getting a game-changer like Jordan certainly has to give them pause. However, if Albert is traded (again, an 80% probability IMHO), then they’re taking Fisher or Joeckel. Other possibilities if he stays are Floyd and Lotulelei, which would add bulk and versatility to the D-line.

3.) When do the Chiefs pick their first ILB?

50% 3^rd round, 20% 4^th round, 15% 5th round, 10% 2nd round, 5% no ILB taken this year

Even though it is the most conspicuous hole on the roster, I think the sweet spot for drafting ILB’s this year is the 3^rd round and it is a deep draft at that position. I don’t think GM John Dorsey is the kind of guy to spring for need if we get a 2^nd rounder by trading Albert, or trading up into the 2^nd round for a guy unless Alec Ogletree or Manti Te’o fall far. On the other hand, the team doesn’t currently have a 2^nd rounder, but it does have two picks in the third. I think they’ll go for the value guy on their list in the mid-rounds. On the other hand, they brought in two journeymen ILB’s for offseason workouts and it’s not a premiere position. They may think that they can cover themselves with what they have and take value picks in other places.

4.) How many offensive skill players will the Chiefs draft?

50% three, 20% four, 20% two, 10% one

This is a bit of a wild guess, because everything we know about Dorsey tells us that he likes to draft purely for value. Still, the offense was the Achilles’ heel of this team for the last two seasons and the side of the football that requires the greatest improvement. But: the new regime has already taken the most important step forward in improving the quarterback position, We also locked up our #1 WR in Dwayne Bowe and signed a #2 in Donnie Avery. We’re told that HC Andy Reid likes WR Dexter McCluster in a slot role and WR Jon Baldwin is still developing… we hope. That doesn’t leave a lot of spots for draft picks unless you plan on cutting them or putting them on the practice squad when the season begins.

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At running back, we have Jamaal Charles, Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray. The latter two are pickups from the previous regime and I would be surprised if Dorsey didn’t pick up a developmental RB at some point in the draft. It would also stand to reason for them to grab a young QB and TE at some point, but I would be surprised if they take more than one of each.

5.) When, if ever will the Chiefs take a QB?

50% 5^th round or later, 30% not this year, 20% 3^rd or 4^th round

The behavior of both this regime and the other NFL front offices implies that the league generally views this as not being the year to pick up a quarterback. In a sense, the Chiefs have already used their 2^nd-round pick on QB Alex Smith and they signed his backup to a generous contract. I don’t expect them to draft anyone that will provide immediate competition to either of them. That said, if a guy like Matt Barkley falls into the 4^th, I’d be surprised if the Chiefs passed on him altogether.

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So what do you say? How do you like my odds?

Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

With the draft less than a week away, rumors and anticipation are reaching an all-time high with who the Kansas City Chiefs will take with their 1^st round pick. Mind you, this may all become much clearer if/when the Chiefs trade LT Brandon Albert to the Miami Dolphins.

Since this will be new General Manager John Dorsey and Head Coach Andy Reid’s first draft with the Chiefs, I wanted to look into what the two’s prior drafting tendencies were.  For Reid, I looked back to the start of his career in Philadelphia, starting back to 1999.  For Dorsey, I looked into the Green Bay Packers’ drafts dating back to 2000, when he was Director of College Scouting until 2011, then becoming their Director of Football Operations for the 2012 season.

Here is all first round picks for the two.

Philadelphia Eagles 1^st round under Reid:

2012 – Fletcher Cox – DT – Mississippi State – 12^th pick

2011 – Danny Watkins – OL – Baylor – 23^rd pick

2010 – Brandon Graham – DE – Michigan – 13^th pick

2009 – Jeremy Maclin – WR – Missouri – 19^th pick

2008 – No first round pick

2007 – No first round pick

2006 – Brodrick Bunkley – DT – Florida State – 14^th pick

2005 – Mike Patterson – DT – USC – 31^st pick

2004 – Shawn Andrews – G – Arkansas – 16^th pick

2003 – Jerome McDougle – DE – Miami (FL) – 15^th pick

2002 – Lito Sheppard – DB – Florida – 26^th pick

2001 – Freddie Mitchell – WR – UCLA – 25^th pick

2000 – Corey Simon – DT – Florida State – 6^th pick

1999 – Donovan McNabb – QB – Syracuse – 2^nd pick

Green Bay Packers 1^st round under Dorsey:

2012 – Nick Perry – DE – USC – 28^th pick

2011 – Derek Sherrod – OL – Mississippi State – 32^nd pick

2010 – Bryan Bulaga – T – Iowa – 23^rd pick

2009 – B.J. Raji – DT – Boston College – 9^th pick

2009 – Clay Matthews – LB – USC – 26^th pick

2008 – No first round pick

2007 – Justin Harrell – DT – Tennessee – 16^th pick

2006 – A.J. Hawk – LB – Ohio State – 5^th pick

2005 – Aaron Rodgers – QB – California – 24^th pick

2004 – Ahmad Carroll – DB – Arkansas – 25^th pick

2003 – Nick Barnett – LB – Oregon State – 29^th pick

2002 – Javon Walker – WR – Florida State – 20^th pick

2001 – Jamal Reynolds – DE – Florida State – 10^th pick

2000 – Bubba Franks – TE – Miami (FL) – 14^th pick

Reid chose a defensive lineman six times during his tenure, Dorsey four.  Both men drafted this position more than any other.  I know this will make Chiefs fans cringe, since it seems every draft we take a D-Lineman.  Each only took two Quarterbacks in the first round.  But with good reasons: Reid secured his franchise QB early, grabbing Donovan McNabb in 1999.  Dorsey had Brett Favre in Green Bay and wisely helped to choose Aaron Rodgers during his draft day slide in 2005.  So, both positions were handled correctly.  (It would be great if that was ever said about the Chiefs quarterback position.)  Dorsey then helped to grab three linebackers during his tenure, all key contributors to the Packers defense.  Both also drafted OL two times each.

I think it’s easy to see that both men value both sides of the line of scrimmage, totaling 14 picks between the both over their tenures with their respective teams.  Buzz with the Chiefs dating back to forever has linked them with Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M or Eric Fisher of Central Michigan.  Seeing the history, some names that have been associated with the Chiefs also were DT Sharif Floyd of Florida, OLB Dion Jordan of Oregon, DE Ezekiel Ansah of BYU, and DT Star Lotulelei of Utah.  All of these make sense due to the Dorsey and Reid’s prior tendencies.  Mind you, I am not predicting a pick; I’m just showing the tendencies of the new regime.  I will leave the pick up to you now, Addicts!

Yes, last week I did tell you that it would make sense to trade Brandon Albert. That doesn’t meant necessarily mean that I think we should do it.

I’m basically willing to go either way on Albert because I accept my own ignorance on the two great unknowns to the whole conversation: 1.) What Albert is asking in the contract negotiations and 2.) What his long-term health looks like in the opinions of the team doctors. We know his play on the field has been good, but the two factors mentioned above will determine whether he will play for the Chiefs in 2014.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Assuming Albert has a clean bill of health and can be brought back into the fold without breaking the bank, our offensive line is pretty much a finished product. Second-year tackle Donald Stephenson, I think, showed enough on the left side in relief of an injured Albert to warrant a shot at RT. Hudson will be back from injury, Asamoah has been playing strong and free agent pickup Geoff Schwartz can play both inside and out. If the Chiefs use a mid-round pick on a right tackle prospect and/or pick up a journeyman lineman for the veteran minimum, I think we we’re pretty much set in terms of depth and quality starters.

With that in mind, what do you do when you have the highest pick on a team that has no glaring holes? You have the luxury to do whatever you want. Grab an impact player that has the potential to be a difference-maker regardless of position.

When it comes to premium positions and this year’s draft class, I think that difference-maker is an outside pass rusher. Here’s what’s great about this year’s crop of pass rushers – it’s like Baskin Robbins, there’s a guy for every flavor. If you’re looking for a raw stud with a huge ceiling, you have Ezekiel Ansah. Want a more polished prospect from a premiere team? Take Barkevious Mingo. A Bruce Irvin fan? Well, basically the same guy is available this year, except he was more productive and his name is Jarvis Jones.

For my money though, I like me some Dion Jordan because he is so versatile. I know a lot of you are going to instantly say that I am crazy because we already have two high-end pass rushers. But, especially given that we have a D-line that can’t pass rush if their life depended on it, we need constant production out of our blitzing ‘backers. The best way to ensure that is to keep them fresh with a good rotation.

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Hali in particular seemed to get worn out late in games last year, clocking just one sack in the 4^th quarter all season (Houston had three). To be fair, in most 2012 games, the Chiefs were practically in body bags waiting for the coroner by the 4^th. Most teams were content to grind it out on the ground until they could go home and celebrate.

Nonetheless, with Tamba turning 30 this year, it would be a good idea to cycle someone else in occasionally to keep him fresh and ready.

Furthermore, Dion Jordan brings some talents to the table that Houston and Hali don’t. The first and most obvious one is height. At 6’6”, Jordan would be the tallest guy on our side of the field. He also has longer-than-average arms (33 7/8’) and bigger-than-average hands (10’). Originally a tight end, he can find the ball and not only bat it down, with a bit of training he could be make some opportunistic catches as well.

Imagine 3^rd downs when the Chiefs move to a 3-3-5 front with Hali, Houston and Jordan all charging forward. You could then play with that format and have Jordan fake the blitz then sit on one of the QB’s dump-off routes on the flat or short down the middle. That’s an interception waiting to happen.

Jason O. Watson-USA TODAY Sports

The only knock against Jordan currently is that he could use a bit more polishing. Despite his blazing speed (having run the 40 at 4.60) and production (10.5 sacks in 12 games his senior year), he is still transitioning into the position. In the Scouts Inc. profile of him, the only area where they ranked him as “average” was in instincts/recognition, saying, “Work in progress. Has natural playmaking instincts.  Has a good feel for attacking blockers and how to keep them off of his body.  Shows impressive awareness and confidence in space for a guy with his frame.  Can be a quarter-count late locating the ball at times.  Needs to sense when to gear down in order to not outrun the play.  Also will get caught peeking inside on occasion when having edge responsibility.”

To me, that’s all the more reason why the Chiefs would be a great landing spot. In KC, we won’t have to force him onto the field and rely on him to start full time. He can watch and learn behind Tamba and Houston and play in subpackages. And, as much as I hate to even entertain this concept, he could make for a great post-Hali plan.

Tamba’s production is still great, especially for a team that no one bothered to pass against last year. But he is one of our highest-paid players with a cap hit of over $15 million this year and he won’t be playing at a pro-bowl level forever once he’s on the other side of 30. Jordan is also injury insurance for Houston and Hali until that day comes. With nothing but run-stuffers up front, we need two guys on the field on every play who can get to the passer.

Pass rusher is a position where you can never have too much depth, particularly in a division with Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. If we want to make sure that the Donkeys don’t see another Super Bowl before we do, our best chance is to make Manning’s life as uncomfortable as possible twice a year (and possibly more).

Last week, I wrote that I was not opposed to acquiring Alex Smith per se, just against looking to him the “answer” to our quarterback woes. It appears that the team has done exactly that.

This post is scheduled to come out at 4 p.m. Central, but as I write this, we do not yet know whether the franchise tag has been used on any of the Chiefs’ three most important free agents – WR Dwayne Bowe, LT Brandon Albert or P Dustin Colquitt.

The early signs and reports are that the Chiefs will likely franchise Bowe, let Albert walk, and draft LT Luke Joeckel 1^st overall. I’ve read countless articles and analyses for and against the trade (most of them for), and my thoughts on this scenario have not changed. Last week I wrote, “if what we end up with is San Fran’s average-to-above-average castaway and a replacement for Brandon Albert who’s unproven in the NFL for the 1st overall pick and, say, a 3rd of 4th this year, it will be hard to deem this offseason a success.”

Even I didn’t think Smith would cost a 2^nd and a 2014 3^rd, as has been reported.

Since 1987, the year I was born, the Chiefs have only started two quarterbacks they drafted themselves – Doug Hudson (7^th round, 1987) and Brodie Croyle (3^rd round, 2006). In fact, since I have been alive, the Chiefs have only twice drafted a quarterback higher than the 3rd round – Mike Elkins in the 2nd in 1989 and Matt Blundin in the 2^nd in 1992. The last time the Chiefs used a 1^st-round pick on a quarterback was exactly 30 years ago in 1983.

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None of this has anything to do with Smith, GM John Dorsey or HC Andy Reid, except that it meant that this trade was automatically going to be met with disappointment by a large swath of Chiefs nation.

I hope this move works out, I really do. But, history and precedent have not been kind to the Chiefs when acquiring quarterbacks in this fashion.

I think Trent Green was worth the 1^st-rounder we traded for him and I suppose Joe Montana, who got us our last playoff victory 20 years ago, was worth that 1^st-rounder too by some measure. Green gave us five (mostly) competitive seasons and Montana gave us two before inevitably retiring.

I guess my question is what will Smith have to do to earn what we gave for him? Playoff wins, surely. A Super Bowl? How many years do we expect him to play for us? If we win a sufficient number of games next year, then that conditional 3^rd-rounder becomes a 2nd which, given that we already gave the 49ers the #34 overall pick, means that we will have gotten Alex Smith for the equivalent of a 1^st-round pick in terms of draft capital.

In Montana’s last year, the Chiefs traded a 4^th-round pick to San Fran for his former backup there, Steve Bono. In his first season starting for Kansas City, Bono had a pro-bowl season and went 13-3. Would that be an adequate return for the draft haul we gave up for Smith?

The Chiefs went 9-7 the next year and cut him in favor of another San Fran backup, this time Elvis Grbac. In college he twice won the Big Ten passing efficiency award, holding Michigan’s record for that mark until being passed up by John Navarre and later Chad Henne. He also went 13-3, but really hit his mark of efficiency in 2000 throwing for 4,169 yards with a 59.6 completion rate … in a year we won seven games.

Efficiency wasn’t enough, so we traded for Trent Green in 2001 who got us a 13-3 season in 2003 (are you starting to see the pattern here?) and a playoff loss. Then he got injured and we opted for his 33-years-young backup Damon Huard, who got us to another playoff loss. When Huard and Croyle washed out we traded for Matt Cassel, who got us one more good season, one more playoff loss.

These guys were all above average quarterbacks with some physical limitations but were seen as good decision-makers that took care of the football. They all got us to the playoffs at some point before we realized they wouldn’t take us any further than that.

Look, this isn’t a science and it’s not like the Chiefs have just been pressing the wrong button over and over again. But, this mentality that the Chiefs are just one safe, limited quarterback away from crawling to the promised land seems to have kept the franchise in neutral for practically my entire life.

If Alex Smith takes us to the playoffs next year, I will be overjoyed, but I’m not sure that alone will make this trade worthwhile. Because of the Smith trade, the Chiefs will almost certainly be once again forgoing the roll of the dice that is drafting a QB in the first two rounds – something we haven’t tried for 21 years.

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Think about that. By the time the Chiefs do (maybe) pick a QB next year, it is likely that this quarterback will not have been alive when the Chiefs last drafted a QB so high.

A lot of commentators have been dismissive of the large group of Chiefs fans that are nervous, disappointed or downright nauseous about the Smith trade, claiming that we’re all just blind Geno lovers. As a passenger on the Geno bandwagon, I would like to respectably disagree. We Alex-Smith pessimists are merely those fans who hoped desperately that the team would depart from its philosophy of the past.

So, I ask again, because I’m not sure I have the answer myself, what does Alex Smith have to do to be a good acquisition? How many starts, playoff victories and championship appearances are adequate compensation? Will you be satisfied if he is our next Trent Green?

Because he’s about to begin his 8^th NFL season and won’t be with us forever. Right now, he is our “answer” at the position. He has to be. We have no one to develop beside him, and probably won’t until at least next year.

It has been several years since so much was at stake for the Kansas City Chiefs in a single offseason.

For now, we are the worst team in the league.

We have no credible starting quarterback.

Three of our best players are not under contract.

And we have no idea what our front office is thinking right now.

Like most rabid Chiefs fans, I think that both new Head Coach Andy Read and General Manager John Dorsey were good hires and I want to believe they will make the best possible decisions in this pivotal offseason.

However, the Pioli regime left my heart and soul battered and, like a chronically abused spouse, I’m a basket case struggling to trust. Add to this that we are at the height of the NFL misinformation season, where GM’s go out of their way to confuse and manipulate the agents and other teams to lower contract offers and juke out opponents. Unfortunately for us shell-shocked fans, the tactics work on us too.

We don’t know what to think.

By the end of the day, if reports are to be believed, it may be announced that the Chiefs have secured a deal to trade for San Francisco QB Alex Smith. Then again, we may end up trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles once the league years starts on March 12, and apparently talks are already running for that.

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Meanwhile, we have been told both that the team is working to re-sign LT Brandon Albert and that is also is high on LT draft prospect Luke Joeckel. Dorsey has come out poo-pooing the QB class, while it appears to be a consensus that Geno Smith solidified his status as a top 10 pick with his performance at the Combine.

We have yet to use the franchise tag, which will allow us to lock up Albert, WR Dwayne Bowe or P Dustin Colquitt.

I wish I had some insight into what is going to happen with this team, but the truth is that no one outside of a very small club within the Chiefs’ front office has any idea.

Here’s what I think I think:

I will be disappointed if Alex Smith becomes our “answer” at quarterback. He’s been productive in his last two seasons under Jim Harbaugh, but was a disaster for the franchise for years before that. While he was ranked 7^th in overall QBR for his 10 games in 2012, the three years before that he was rated thusly, 2011: 45.8, 2010: 40.1, 2009: 40.2. By comparison, Blaine Gabbert’s QBR in 2012 was 40.9. Christian Ponder’s was 53.8.

Still, I don’t want to be misunderstood. I’m not necessarily against acquiring Alex Smith if the compensation is reasonable. I am whole-heartedly against trading for him and thinking we’re set at the position. The fact is that we need three quarterbacks. Cassel could possibly restructure for a less egregious cap number this year, but I feel like a clean break would be best for both player and team. Brady Quinn is a free agent and good riddance. Ricky Stanzi and Alex Tanney haven’t shown us anything and probably only have the upside to become backups even if they develop.

In a perfect world, we could acquire either Smith or Foles and still draft Geno. Alex can hold down the fort for a season or two while Geno works on the “inconsistencies” all the scouts have been talking about and Foles could also compete with Geno long-term as an option with upside.

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However, if what we end up with is San Fran’s average-to-above-average castaway and a replacement for Brandon Albert who’s unproven in the NFL for the 1^st overall pick and, say, a 3^rd of 4^th this year, it will be hard to deem this offseason a success.

Alex Smith is just 28 and maybe his best football is ahead of him. Then again, maybe he is nothing more than a system quarterback who benefited from great coaching and a strong team around him that plays both solid defense and hosts a running game that averaged 155.7 yards per game (4^th in the league in 2012).

Maybe his best football is behind him. Cassel’s 2008 QBR rating with the New England Patriots was 63.1 – 11^th in the league and comparable to Smith’s 70.1 rating this year.

On either side of Smith in the QBR rankings this year are rookies RGIII (71.4) and Russell Wilson (69.6).

It was pretty clear that RGIII was going to be a superstar this year, but that didn’t stop the Redskins from hedging their bets and picking up Kirk Cousins as well to develop along side him.

As we all know, Wilson was believed to have limitations in his game and the Seahawks got him for a song in the 3^rd round. Even then he was considered to be a reach. They also gave a big contract to Matt Flynn and had Tavaris Jackson on their roster when the training camp began last year and I don’t think they are kicking themselves.

Like I said, I am only going to be upset with Alex Smith if the Chiefs bring him in on a chariot as the sole answer to our QB woes. We need multiple options for the future. How we go about getting them will define this team for years. There are several cards to play and we can’t see Dorsey’s hand.

So, as much as it’s killing us, all we can do is wait.

The last week has certainly thrown our QB draft predictions through a loop.

The first shoe to drop was Michael Vick, who signed a new three-year contract “that’s really a one-year deal” according to USA Today worth up to $10 million last Monday. He was already under contract but his restructured deal all but ended speculation that he might be a cap casualty and hit the open market. This leaves just Alex Smith and Matt Flynn as starting-caliber QB’s who could be cut or traded by their current teams.

Then, over the weekend, Dorsey heavily criticized this year’s incoming quarterback draft class, citing “so many inconsistencies” and “too many technical flaws, scheme flaws” among this year’s crop.

Like Paddy, I struggle to understand the purpose of these statements except that maybe he’s hoping to find a trade partner who is enamored with either DT Star Lotulelei or LT Luke Joeckel (the consensus top prospects at the moment) and is willing to hopscotch up to the Chiefs’ spot to guarantee not missing out on one of them. Then again, it’s February and GM’s are usually the last person you can trust leading up to the draft. On the other hand, when you hold the first pick, you don’t really need to juke out anyone.

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A few days before his statements came reports that the Chiefs were interested in trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles. It remains unclear if these reports or credible or just idle speculation that Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid would be interested in taking the quarterback he drafted last year and started in the final seven games of the season. One way or the other, with the Chiefs QB options narrowing, it is certainly worth considering whether the team should make a play for Foles and what he would be worth.

In my opinion, Foles is worth at least the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick. Here’s why:

His overall stats for his rookie season were unimpressive: 1-7 record, 60.8% completion percentage for 6.41 yards per completion, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. But, it’s important to see how he progressed. In his last four games last year he was 5 TD’s, 2 INTs for 1,152 yards (a 289.25 per-game average).

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Consider also that he was never supposed to see the field in 2012. He was widely regarded as a guy who would need a lot of development to be ready to play in the NFL.

Furthermore, he was able to put in respectable performances for the Eagles during the home stretch of a season that was a slow motion implosion. Our very own Andy Reid was a lame duck in Week 3. The defense was a sieve, allowing a 27.8 per game (3^rd-worst in the league). Two coaches were fired mid-season. The offensive line was a disaster, allowing a league-high 118 QB hits, and 48 sacks. Only four teams allowed more.

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In some ways, none of this was new to him. He played college ball at Arizona, a middling team in the PAC-12 that played poor defense and only got to one bowl game during his stint there. Their head coach was fired after his junior season.

Nonetheless, Foles was a highly ranked prospect in the 2012 Draft because he possesses the prototypical qualities of a successful quarterback – 6’5” with a big arm and knack for dropping bombs in his receivers’ breadbaskets. In his final season for the Wildcats, he gained 4,334 yards with 28 TD’s and 14 INT’s. He was ranked CBS Sports’ 48^th overall prospect and was expected to go in the mid-to-late 2^nd round. (For a total breakdown of his college work, check out Ladner’s post on the subject from last year).

In fact, the only reason he fell so far was likely because last year’s draft class was so much richer than this year’s and there had already been a feeding frenzy on signal callers. Six quarterbacks were taken ahead of Foles — Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson. All but one of those guys started this year and proved that they could be productive players. After Foles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Lindley were selected and also ended up playing for their respective teams. So, while the Eagles may have gotten him for just a 3^rd, that was a steal. Luckily for us, Pioli grabbed a backup lineman instead.

So what is he worth?

For the record, I should reiterate that I continue to believe that the Chiefs’ best course of action is to franchise LT Brandon Albert, re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe and grab the top quarterback prospect (Geno Smith) with our first overall pick. We can pick up some serviceable veterans and depth players to plug in the rest of our holes with free agency and the lower-rungs of the draft.

But, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a case for grabbing Nick Foles.

With his youth, upside and NFL experience, I think Foles would easily be one of the top three quarterback prospects if he was magically inserted into the 2013 draft. His tape reminds me a lot of Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon and it’s possible that both of those guys will go in the first round. I can’t fathom either of them falling out of the 2^nd.

So, Nick Foles’ former draft position doesn’t matter much when talking about draft compensation this year. In fact, given that he showed the ability to be productive at this level automatically means that he is worth more than the 88^th overall pick, where he was chosen. Therefore, the Eagles are right to expect more in return.

If we’re talking about equitable compensation I think the conversation starts at the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick, which, as Ladner pointed out, is really a late 2^nd-round pick because the Saints and Browns have no 2^nd-rounders this year. We will still probably get a late-3^rd compensatory pick, so the sacrifice isn’t devastating. But, I don’t think the Chiefs should go as high as our #34 selection this year, simply because we need to get value with that pick this year (especially if we are going to “reach” at #1). But, I think it makes perfect sense to offer conditional 2014 picks and maybe even 2015 picks based on Foles’ performance.

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A possible deal could look like this – a 3^rd or 4^th this year and a 6^th next year that could increase to a 4^th, 3^rd, or even 2^nd-round pick in 2014 if he starts for us and takes us to the playoffs. Generally, a pick next year is considered the equivalent of a pick in the current year minus one round. In other words, a 3^rd-rounder next year is worth a 4^th-rounder this year in terms of draft capital.

With this kind of a deal, worst case scenario is that we give up one of our top-100 picks this year and not much else for a starting-quality backup, who is better than any QB we currently have on the roster, who is 24 and who has a ton of upside. He totally outplayed Brandon Weeden last year, who was taken in the 1^st round and is five years older.

If Foles starts for us and we do well with him in 2013, we won’t care that we lost our (late) 2^nd or 3^rd-round pick next year to get him.

Furthermore, Philadelphia may not be so determined to fetch such a high price. While they have said that they would need to be “blown away” by an offer, they have a new regime and are looking for a different type of quarterback. By re-signing Michael Vick and picking up QB Dennis Dixon, who Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly coached in Oregon, they are showing they want a guy who is mobile and can keep up with Kelly’s offense. Slow feet is one of Foles’ greatest weaknesses. He is the black sheep on the roster. So, while they see value in him, that doesn’t mean they’re in love.

While I know it would be groan-inducing for most Chiefs fans, trading for Foles may also be the team’s best way to get one of the most objectively talented prospects in the 2013 Draft plus a possible quarterback of the future. I’ve been on the record as saying that it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to bypass Geno for Lotulelei or Joeckel, but adding Foles to our shopping bag as a 3^rd round pick changes things a bit.

If Dorsey truly is averse to grabbing the top QB in 2013, I think the best consolation prize we are going to find is Nick Foles.

Last week, I laid out why I think it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to select DT Star Lotulelei with their first pick. This week, it’s Joeckel’s turn.

There’s probably no player more frequently mocked to the Chiefs than LT Luke Joeckel, but there are a lot of problems with that pick.

Still, let’s start with the good:

He’s a blue chip player at a blue chip position and if the Chiefs don’t re-sign Brandon Albert, it’s a need position for the Chiefs as well.

By almost all accounts he is one of the top three prospects in this draft. Left tackles with the natural ability and prototypical size that he has do not grow on trees. In a year of iffy quarterback prospects, tackles also tend to be safer picks and he’ll be cheaper than retaining Albert’s services most likely.

He has no injury concerns and held his own against some of college football’s best pass rushers in the SEC. All around, he is a low-risk pick and could be the best LT in all of football with some development.

So why not take him?

First off, while there is an overall lower bust rate for tackles in the top of the draft, they’re not a sure bet either. Of the eight tackles taken in the top ten since 2008, all but two are currently rated by Scouts Inc. as just “good starters,” which they describe as a “Solid starter who is close to being an outstanding player … Has few weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchup but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the league.”

That’s not exactly an inspiring result for a 1^st overall pick. If you pick in the top five, you should be landing a guy that is a star in the league for years, not a guy who is merely better than average.

Brandon Albert, on the other hand, is rated as an “outstanding player” by Scouts Inc., which they describe as, “Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL … A feature player who has an impact on the outcome of the game … Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week-in and week-out.”

In other words, if the past five years of drafts are any indication, the Chiefs have essentially a one in four chance of drafting a tackle as good as Brandon Albert. In fact, Brandon Albert is probably one of the most under-rated players on the Chiefs roster. He was ranked the 7^th best left tackle in pass protection by Pro Football Focus in 2012 giving up just one sack throughout the season, and Jamaal Charles ran his best when going wide left behind Albert last year. At the final tally, he averaged 8.1 yards for 459 total, gaining roughly a third of his total yards and three of his five touchdowns that way – including that miracle sprint that won us the Saints game.

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But looking at Joeckel himself as a prospect, he is also far from perfect. Going back to the Scouts Inc. grades, the only thing he is rated as “exceptional” in is “awareness.” Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that he’s a smart football player, but I also get a bit antsy about prospects other than quarterbacks whose primary accolade is that they have veteran awareness, because that is ideally the area where they will improve the most once they get to the NFL. Most players do not fundamentally change their bodies and physical tools once they get to the pros, because there’s only so much more you can do when you’re built like these guys are.

In their grades on both his pass protection and run blocking, Scouts Inc. notes he lacks “power in punch” and “initial pop,” noting he doesn’t always drive defenders off the line, but is usually able to make up for his lack of strength with good reactions. While I imagine he can bulk up some, if he’s getting outmuscled in college, he’s going to get straight up beaten in the NFL. Plus, if his awareness is already topped out, he may have peaked already.

The last team to pick a left tackle 1^st overall was the Miami Dolphins in 2008. They had a similar plan to the one that is very popular in the comment section – they got their franchise LT in Jake Long with their first overall pick and then snagged a falling QB prospect in the 2^nd round – Chad Henne. In fact, there are lot of similarities between the 2012 Chiefs and the Dolphins going into the 2008 Draft. They too had a solid defense and a team with good veteran pieces in place. So how did it go?

What occurred was the greatest single-season turnaround in NFL history as they improved from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008, winning the Tom Brady-less AFC East and going to the playoffs. But, it didn’t last.

Still running with free-agent-signing Chad Pennington at quarterback, the Dolphins turned stale as their game plan of short, accurate passing with Pennington stopped working. Teams also started figuring out the wildcat formation and when Pennington got injured, the team was forced to confront the fact that Henne was something less than a starting quality QB. He finished the season with 12 TD’s, 14 INT’s and a QBR of 51.3.

Three picks after they grabbed Jake Long, the Falcons drafted QB Matt Ryan. Since the 2008 draft, the Falcons’ regular season record is 56-24. The Dolphins have gone 38-42 and haven’t been back to the playoffs since 2008. Meanwhile, Jake Long has ended up being a solid player but has had so many injury problems that the team plans to let him walk on the free market this offseason.

At this stage of the process, the chattering consensus is that it would be a reach for the Chiefs to take any quarterback at #1, however there’s also no guarantee that they will be able to take one of the top two quarterback prospects at all if they wait to try and jump into the back of the 1^st round or take whatever is left in round two. Free agent options are uninspiring to say the least.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a left tackle that they could re-sign who is better than 75% of the tackles taken in the top 10 of the 1^st round in the last five years.

The Chiefs need to decide if they want to be the Dolphins or the Falcons, whether they want to take a chance to fundamentally change this team, or whether they want to play the best card we have this offseason to fill a hole that we’d be making ourselves.

For me the choice is simple, don’t draft Joeckel if you want to take a big step forward.

Super Bowl XVII is in the books and the 2013 offseason has officially begun.

For the Chiefs, of course, the draft talk has been going since mid-season and in case there is was any doubt, I am in the camp of fans clamoring for the Chiefs to take a quarterback with their first pick.

I’ve come to this decision not because I’m smitten with any particular prospect (although I think Geno Smith currently leads the class), but because I think all other options are uninspiring and won’t help this team take the next step. In short, I think Geno wins by process of elimination. To make that point, I’ll be going through all the other players frequently mocked to the Chiefs and that the team will be able to grab with the 1^st overall pick.

First up, DT Star Lotulelei.

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The Good:

Star Lotulelei is a big, big man who is extremely powerful and stunningly fast. He once caused a fumbled snap and recovered it against USC because he hit the center so quickly and powerfully that the guy was on his rear before he ever got the ball to the QB. That’s really hard to do in the split second that the ball goes from the ground to the quarterback’s hands.

Although he made his bones blowing up blocks in the middle and causing havoc for offensive lines, he also was able to chase down runners from behind on plays where he was left unblocked on counters in one direction of the other. Overall, the player he most reminds me of is B.J. Raji – both an unstoppable force and an immovable object. I’m really not sure what would happen if two Star Lotulelei’s collided, but it would probably tear a hole in time and space.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Bad:

We’ve drafted this guy before.

Several times in fact.

This isn’t necessarily his fault, but I don’t need to remind Chiefs fans that this team has an awful history of selecting defensive linemen with their first picks in the draft. Still, in case anyone has forgotten, this is how it has gone lately with run-stuffing DT’s that KC grabbed with their first selection that year:

2001, 75^th overall pick Eric Downing – Started just 13 games for the team in three years before being cut and picked up by the Chargers, who in turn cut him after one season. He accumulated just two sacks and 44 tackles in those four years.

2002, 6^th overall pick Ryan Sims – Started 36 games for the team in five seasons on the roster, racking up just five sacks and 64 tackles before being let go.

2004, 36^th overall pick Junior Siavii – Cut after two years without ever starting a game. Had 13 tackles and one sack for the Chiefs.

2006, 20^th overall pick Tamba Hali – Obviously has become a franchise pass rusher for the team and one of the most important pieces of our defense … but only after we moved him off the line to linebacker.

2008, 5^th overall pick Glenn Dorsey – Has never been worth his contract although he has turned into a respectable player in the 3-4, but he’s been injury prone and his best season was in that magical (possibly fluky) 2010 season, in which he had 51 tackles and two sacks. My guess is that he won’t be with the team next year.

2009, 3^rd overall pick Tyson Jackson – Last November, Pro Football Focus wrote of Jackson: “However you want to spin it, Jackson was a bad draft pick. Not because he’s a bad player, but because you don’t spend a third overall pick on a two down run stuffing end [more on that later]. That’s what the Chiefs did and they’re having to live with the consequences of his astronomical salary. His work in the run game has been decent this year (though nowhere near as good as 2011), but he’s yet to pick up any pressure. In fact, throughout his career he has 19 quarterback disruptions. Through 8 weeks of the NFL season, 43 defenders have more this season alone.”

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

2012, 11^th overall pick Dontari Poe – He may yet turn into something, but a pass rusher he is not. At the end of the year, PFF noted: “In his rookie season, Dontari Poe had the lowest Pass Rushing Productivity of all defensive/nose tackle, at 2.3. In his 391 pass rushes, he had zero sacks, three hits and nine hurries. The two lowest 3-4 defensive ends included Tyson Jackson at 2.2, and Ropati Pitoitua at 2.3.”

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, Kansas City defensive linemen have been useless against the pass, and that won’t change if we pick up Lotulelei.

Although he is Scouts Inc.’s top overall rated player and is the top rated defensive tackle (4^th overall) on Mel Kiper’s Big Board, he still grades out poorly as anything other than a run-stuffer. He had just average production for his position with 41 tackles and five sacks in 2012. As with Poe, scouts rightly point out that given the extreme difference in level of play between college and the NFL, prospects should stand out big time at the college level. They should look like the best player on the field – especially if they are considered a top-10 pick. I’m not sure that’s the case with Lotulelei.

Scouts Inc. graded him as “below average” on pass rush skills, saying: “Needs development and doesn’t have a ton of upside in this area. Flashes an effective bull rush to collapse the pocket when staying low. However, too often comes off the ball too high initially. Does not have a wide array of pass rushing moves right now. Also needs development with hands in combat to counter. Shows good instincts to get his hands up in throwing lanes when seeing quarterbacks start their throwing motion.”

The only thing they graded him as “exceptional” in was his durability and run defense, saying he’d be a good fit in a Romeo Crennel-style two-gap 3-4 – an accolade that sends a chill down my spine.

If he hasn’t been effective at rushing the passer in college, he won’t be in NFL. The fact that scouts don’t believe he has upside in that area should worry any coach. Honestly, given how much passing and defending the pass has become the marquis struggle in the league, I’m amazed at how highly Lotulelei is projected to be selected.

In the end, I agree with  what PFF said about Jackson. You just don’t pick run-stuffers this high in the draft. While a pass can be disrupted by a single player, run-defense is squad-level effort and one player is not going to make the same impact against the run as a pass-rushing specialist will at getting after the quarterback. Even if one D-lineman is especially fierce against runners, teams will just run around him. It’s always good when your defense can dictate what the other team is able to do, but making them run left instead of right isn’t as big of a contribution as them having to keep extra backs in for pass pro or ignore a side of the field because their receivers are stuck on Revis Island.

While it would be a painfully Chiefs-esque move, the team should definitely not spend their 1^st pick this year on Star Lotulelei. He might help us, but he won’t fundamentally change this team, which is in need of serious work.

It’s that time of year again, when we all scour every mock draft we can find and endlessly ponder and argue about what the Chiefs should do once April 25^th rolls around.

Everyone has an opinion, most formed forged by a mix of personal preferences, tape study, and a survey of mocks and expert commentary. The problem is that draft science is far from a real science and Mel Kiper Jr. is not god. In fact, the man is our creation – he exists as a result of our obsession and boredom this time of year, and don’t get me wrong, I listen to his podcast, read his articles and scan through all of his mocks. Still, that is far from meaning that the Chiefs should take his advice on Draft day.

The big theme of this round of draft chatter is about how none of the QB’s are worthy of the first overall pick so therefore the Chiefs should steer clear of them with their first selection, choosing instead one of the standout pass-rushers or linemen.

Perhaps it’s my background as a journalist, but I hate groupthink and that includes the conventional wisdom that builds up around this time every year and then gets shattered by the guys actually making the decisions. Let’s be clear, regardless of whatever the self-styled draft scientists say, the player that is worth the Chiefs 1^st pick is the player most likely to make the team better, Kiper’s big board be damned.

To me, it is obvious that this player is whoever the Chiefs deem to be the best quarterback prospect available. I believe that player to be Geno Smith, but what John Dorsey thinks is far more important than my amateur evaluation. In the coming weeks I will go through and detail why the Chiefs shouldn’t pick each individual other prospect that the so-called experts have mocked to them, but for now, I just want to point out that Dorsey has a much better track record than the “experts” when it comes to drafting quality players.

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Let’s compare the Packers’ 1^st-round picks since 2005 with what the scientists wanted them to choose:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Pick #: 28

Result: Jury Still Out. Perry started five games this season and racked up a couple of sacks, but couldn’t stay healthy and finished the year on injured reserve with a wrist injury.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Pick #: 32

Result: Jury Still Out. I know it seems like a cop-out, but Sherrod has also seen limited time due to injury. He broke both the tibia and fibula in his leg during the team’s stunning loss to the Chiefs in 2011 and hasn’t been back on the field since. Before then, he started five games giving up no sacks but generating concern in Green Bay about his grasp of the fundamentals.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2010: T Bryan Bulaga

Pick #: 23

Result: High-end starter. Drafted late in the round, Bulaga has played right tacklke for three years “near a Pro Bowl level” and will get a shot at playing left tackle in 2013, according to the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2009: B.J. Raji

Pick #: 9

Result: Franchise player. Raji is a major force at his position and a difference-maker in games.

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

2009: LB Clay Mathews

Pick #: 26

Result: Franchise player. Ditto for Matthews. 42.5 sacks since being drafted. ‘Nuff said.

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2007: DT Justin Harrell

Pick #: 16

Result: Bust due to injury. There is an odd theme to injury being the bane of the Packers’ most promising young players, but it was again the case here. He was cut in 2011 after four disappointing seasons, which the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel summed up thusly: “Harrell never quite had a chance to cash in on his potential as injuries robbed him each season.” Still, he was drafted with a torn bicep suffered in college and was a risky pick on the behalf of the Packers’ front office.

2006: OLB A.J. Hawk

Pick #: 5

Result: High-end starter. ESPN insider describes him as: “an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is an instinctive player who understands angles and how to the leverage the football. He has improved attacking the line of scrimmage being more physical on contact. He is solid as a zone coverage defender but may get exposed in combination man schemes.”

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

2005: QB Aaron Rodgers

Pick #: 24

Result: Living legend. A-Rodg probably has to get another Super Bowl victory to punch his ticket to Canton, but he is one of the best three quarterbacks playing this game right now, possibly the very best.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

All and all, not a bad haul for eight first-round picks – one bust, two high-end starters, two franchise players, and one superstar that will define this generation for the team. I don’t need to remind you of what the Chiefs got themselves through these years, but suffice to say it is significantly less stellar.

How did the experts do? Well, this is what Kiper, king of the draftniks, wanted Green Bay to do all of these years:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Ok, this one was sort of obvious. Green Bay needed a pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews and Perry was projected to be the only one available at this spot.

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Ditto. Also shows that these iffy picks were eminently popular.

2010:  G Mike Iupati

Real pick #: 17 by San Francisco

Result: High-end starter. Scouts Inc. has him ranked as the 49ers’ 6^th best player.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2009: CB Malcom Jenkins

Real pick #: 14 by New Orleans

Result: Good starter. The Saints moved him to free safety where he shows good overall skills on that dreadful defense but hasn’t been a difference maker. He has four interceptions in four seasons.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2008: CB Antoine Cason

Real pick #: 27 by San Diego

Result: High-end starter. He gives up big plays, but is overall still a solid d-back. His Madden 13 overall rating was 86, which is pretty dern good.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2007: RB Marshawn Lynch

Real pick #: 12 by Buffalo

Result: High-end starter. Lynch is a borderline franchise player and definitely would have been a good pick for Green Bay if Buffalo hadn’t snatched him four picks earlier. It’s also important to note, however, that Lynch was a trouble-maker who washed out for his first team, which very well could have been the Packers instead of the Bills.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2006: A.J. Hawk

Right again! Rival expert Todd McShay had the Packers taking TE Vernon Davis. Now that would be scary.

2005: S/OLB (?) Thomas Davis

Real pick #: 14 by Carolina

Result: Mediocre player. Davis’ biggest problems lately have been health. He only played nine games in three seasons from 2009 to 2011 and didn’t stand out in 15 starts in 2012, picking up 68 tackles, no sacks and one interception for the Panthers.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

So matched up against the real Green Bay front office, Kiper would have gotten for them four high-end starters plus one good and one mediocre player vs. one superstar, two franchise players, two high-end starters and a bust. That, of course is what conventional wisdom brings – low-risk moves that pay off but make no home runs.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Was 24 the right spot for Aaron Rodgers to be drafted? Well, we know now that it definitely was not. Instead, Alex Smith was taken 1^st overall that year followed by RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cedric Benson, RB Cadillac Williams and CB Pacman Jones. Why? Well, it was a strong running back draft class, just like this is a strong draft for defensive front-seven players.

This is why the “best player available” philosophy is always so misunderstood. Best player available doesn’t mean “next player on Kiper’s Big Board” or “the consensus pick by the draft scientists.” It means finding a player with something special that you can envision helping your team, possibly leading it to the promised land. John Dorsey is much better at that part of the game than any of the talking heads, and has proven it.

Forget about what the crowd says would be “good value” for Chiefs #1 pick. Good value is going to be getting the best quarterback for the future we can. Trading Albert for a young tackle prospect is not good value. Picking up another overhyped D-lineman or undersized pass-rusher isn’t either.

In short, don’t listen to the chatter. Dorsey’s got this.

Jan 22, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey discusses with his scouts and coaches following the Senior Bowl South Squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

We all know that this team’s desperate need for a decent quarterback is second to none, but what else do the Chiefs lack?

A quick look at the Chiefs’ 2-14 record and -214 point differential would suggest that we need a lot and one of the positions that I notice commenters griping the most about is cornerback.

Indeed, only five other teams allowed more passing touchdowns than the 2012 Chiefs defense and opposing quarterbacks had a league-high 99.9 passer rating against the team this year. To put that in perspective, Chiefs passers themselves have only twice hit that mark since Week 5 of the 2011 season (Orton once, Brady once, not counting the two passes he threw against the Ravens this year).

And yet, I am here to tell you that our defensive backfield is not that bad.

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Opponents attempted just 464 passes against the Chiefs all year – a league low. There were two reasons for this – 1.) Opposing teams were nearly always playing with the lead and were content to run out the clock and 2.) Gashing the Chiefs with the run was simply more effective. Only five teams allowed higher average yardage per carry (4.5) than the Chiefs.

When you factor in the fact that the Chiefs offense was 28^th in the league with just 17.9 first downs per game and had the second worst ratio of punts to offensive score, it’s pretty clear that the Chiefs pass defense was basically always in a bad spot. The run defense was at best inconsistent and the totally ineffective offense kept them on the field all game.

Also, the depressing aggregate stats belie the fact that the Chiefs do have some real talent back there. We all know that CB Brandon Flowers is a champ and the closest thing to a shutdown corner that the Chiefs have had for more than a decade. He finished the year with just three interceptions largely because opposing teams never throw his direction.

Despite an incredibly bad start recovering from an ACL tear, SS Eric Berry regained his form and, in my opinion, earned his controversial pro bowl selection this year. During a stretch from the bye to Week 15, Berry amassed a +8.8 grade from Pro Football Focus and PFF gave him the game ball against Oakland that week, despite the fact he played for the losing team.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

CB Javier Arenas remains an up-and-down player, but I still think he is a strong #3 CB. He was ranked 12^th in PFF’s tackling efficiency this season and knocks down lots of passes, but is mismatched against big receivers due to his size. The few times that CB Jallil Brown has had to step in, I think he has also shown a lot of ability as a developing player.

All and all, the building blocks are there and I don’t view this group as a weakness. I’ve seen a lot of people who aren’t crazy about this year’s QB class clamoring for the team to go cornerback high in the draft instead. They said the same thing last year, and I just don’t see it.

The fact is that the Chiefs are going nowhere without a credible starter at QB next year no matter how brilliant or horrible their defensive secondary is. Also, when the offense is clicking, even mediocre DB’s can hold down the fort. The proof? Look no further than the Indianapolis Colts.

When they moved on from QB Peyton Manning they figured it was going to be a long road back to greatness so they went ahead and blew up most of the team, keeping just three players among all their D-backs going into this year. With most of the spots in their defensive backfield manned by low-level free agents, they have held together a middle-of-the-pack defense, which was good enough to get them into the playoffs for the right to be destroyed by the Baltimore Ravens.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, signed CB Brandon Carr to big money and drafted CB Morris Claiborne with their first round pick. They also ended up with a middle-of-the-pack pass defense.

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

In short, I’m on the Geno bandwagon. The Chiefs need to get a pass offense before they think about improving the pass defense. I’m all for bringing in some new bodies to the secondary and the team has no need to keep any of their current CB’s not named Flowers, Arenas or Brown, but I don’t think we need to commit a high draft pick or major free agent signing to the cause.

We could clone Brandon Flowers twice, have him play three positions in the defensive backfield and still win only two games in 2013.

Only a QB can save us.

Last Friday, a shot rang out through Chiefs nation – one that meant hope, credibility and a lot of change.

By firing GM Scott Pioli and bringing in head coach Andy Reid, Clark Hunt has set the franchise on an entirely new path.

Firstly, he has done away with the team’s traditional hierarchical structure that seats a powerful general manager above the coaching staff. Make no mistake, going forward, for better or worse, Reid is going to be calling the shots during the offseason, the draft, et cetera.

Four years ago, the Chiefs hired a highly reputed front office wiz from the New England Patriots. Although everyone knows that Bill Belichick is the mastermind behind New England’s success, this guy was a vital cog in his machine and it was believed that the numbers guy could be brought in to reproduce it. That failed, and Hunt learned his lesson. This time around, by hiring Andy Reid, he didn’t get Pioli, he got Belichick.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Having secured a lucrative contract that gives him wide-sweeping authority, make no mistake, Reid is going to make a lot of changes. He comes with a distinct philosophy, working style and mold for a successful team.

Reid is definitely going to make his imprint on this team during this offseason, which means several players are going to get their walking papers while others are going to see their role increase. We still don’t know exactly who Reid will take on with his staff or whether or not he will be keeping the Chiefs’ 3-4 defense, but judging by the way he built the Eagles, I think we can say which players should be happy and which should be nervous.

Offense

Extremely Happy:

WR’s Steve Breaston, Dexter McCluster and Devon Wylie

Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Reid loves small receivers that are great route-runners. McCluster has come on has an effective slot guy and I have a feeling that Reid will find something to do with Breaston who was criminally underused this season. Meanwhile, Wylie showed up late as another developing tool in the Chiefs passing game.

Happy:

RB Jamaal Charles, LT Brandon Albert

It’s been widely said that Reid doesn’t like to run the ball, but that’s not really true. The Eagles were 19^th in rushing attempts per game this year, 12^th last year and 15^th in 2010. In other words, they’re pretty much in the middle of the pack. Charles will still be getting fewer touches on runs out of the backfield (largely because the Chiefs have been one of the most run-happy teams in the league), but he will make up for that with more screens and quick passes thrown his way per game. Charles is a good route runner and could easily become a faster version of Brian Westbrook.

Reid also highly values the offensive line and doesn’t mind spending big to keep it shored up. This is good news for Albert, whose contract is up.

Extremely Worried:

RB Peyton Hillis and WR’s Jonathan Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Hillis is gone. His fantastic game against the Colts notwithstanding, Hillis was a disappointment, only rushing for 309 yards this season for a 3.6-yard average. Like Hillis, Baldwin and Bowe also don’t really fit Reid’s scheme. Bowe is a great outside, move-the-chains threat, but Reid doesn’t typically utilize such receivers. He prefers getting the ball into the hands of smaller, more dynamic players in the middle that have the chance to make big plays. Baldwin has done next to nothing in the league and doesn’t fit this new mold. Bowe will probably be allowed to walk this offseason in favor of a free agent like Mike Wallace. Baldwin will probably get his last chance to prove his worth in the 2013 preseason.

Defense

Extremely Happy:

S Eric Berry

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Reid made great use of safety Brian Dawkins early in his time in Philadelphia as a jack-of-all-trades blitzer, run stuffer and cover guy. Berry has the physical tools to do the same, and I can’t wait to see the creative ways Reid decides to use him.

Happy:

OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston

Although nothing is certain at this point, it is likely that Reid will want to move back to a 4-3 defense and use both Hali and Houston as edge rushers on the line. Hali is originally a defensive end and will likely be happy to return. Although Houston has done admirably in picking up coverage skills, I personally think it is a waste to make him drop back on passing downs when he truly excels at getting after the quarterback. In a Reid defense, he likely to be able focus on doing just that.

Worried:

The rest of the front seven

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Especially if the team abandons the 3-4, DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are likely toast. Both are overpaid and underwhelming and I don’t see Reid wanting to keep reinvesting in those projects. Poe will likely stay a bit longer because he is still developing and would likely be effective in a 4-3 as well.

Unfortunately for the guys behind them, Reid has never heavily prized the linebacker position. In his years in Philly, he always invested high picks and free agent signings in defensive linemen and DBs while allowing the linebacking corps to be filled by a revolving door of journeymen.

Although we know Derrick Johnson can excel in the role of a 4-3 middle linebacker, it is still unclear whether Reid will want to pay him big money to continue to do so when his contract is up.

This list will change as we find out more about what Reid plans to do with this team, and I’ll try to keep you all updated as we all find out more.

Like any other fan on the Addict, I dream dreams for the Chiefs of pick-sixes, Hail Marys that have a chance and better  than eight-win seasons (I’m being more realistic now instead of mentioning, you know, the Super Bowl) … among other dreams that I don’t want to get into here.

Yes, I have spent a lot of time in the land of “what if?” Like, I used to think about… what if the Chiefs were respected around the league… and in their own home town.

Now, my what-iffing is all about the Chiefs’ future. So, let’s play…

Would You? Could You?

(more…)

Coming back from my home abroad in the Republic of Georgia for the holidays, the only thing I really wanted for Christmas was to be able to witness a competitive Chiefs game in person.

Statistically, the team’s past performances and the overall matchup with the Colts made it pretty unlikely I was going to get my wish. But, despite Brady Quinn’s and Brian Daboll’s best efforts I was able to stand a few dozen rows back and watch my beloved team play a dignified game against a better opponent.

I even got to see the team make history. The 2012 Chiefs are the only NFL team to rush for more than 350 yards and still lose the game. Let that soak in a little.

I’m preaching to the choir here on Arrowhead Addict, but if there are any readers who have not been watching the Chiefs all season, this game is your indisputable proof that the Chiefs have been sunk singlehandedly by horrendous quarterback play and worst offensive coaching and play-calling in the league. It is very difficult to have 507 total yards and score only 13 points without doing it on purpose. If that was Daboll’s intent, well done, sir.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

If not, well …

Matt Cassel would have won this game.

Mark Sanchez would have won this game.

Heck, Chad Henne would have won this game by two touchdowns.

Andy Reid, who is about to be fired, would have never called for a draw play on 3^rd and 8 with the game tied in the last three minutes against a team that already had six wins in which they came back in the fourth quarter. Norv Turner, who is also about to be fired, wouldn’t even have this dumb play in his binder.

In fact, any offensive coordinator who decides to hand off to his power back in a clutch situation from the shotgun formation (!) on 3^rd and 8 in what is likely your last possession of a tied game needs to be taken in for a round of electroshock treatment. I’m not trying to be crass, it’s for their health.

The fact that Jamaal’s historic performance was wasted because his quarterback not only couldn’t score at the end of drives, but actually killed one drive and gave up an easy pick six, is criminal.

Quinn needs to find himself a nice spot in the UFL or CFL and I don’t say that out of spite or malice. I believe him when he said he’s not interested in the glory, but rather an opportunity to play the game he loves. Through five seasons in the NFL, he has shown that he is a low-end backup quarterback at this level, and even at that, I’m not sure I’d want him to try and carry my team if my starter gets hurt. He’s made his money; if he really wants to play this game I think he’ll find it’s a lot more fun in the minor leagues. There it won’t matter that he can’t hit a single deep throw – the Colts’ coverage was nothing special on Sunday; he wouldn’t have completed those throws even if the receivers were wide open.

It also struck me at this game how much we have lowered our expectations as Chiefs fans. A lot of the post-game talk was about the fact that Jon Baldwin had one of his best games with two (!) catches for 64 yards on six targets. The fact that this is considered to be a noteworthy performance is among the best evidence I can summon for just how much this team has played like garbage this year. In fact, it feels like we have undergone a slow slide in our expectations over the last few years towards saying, “Well, we didn’t get totally embarrassed. Good day.”

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

That bears out in the stats dug up by the Star’s Sam Mellinger: the Chiefs current point differential is a league-worst  -179 and is also the worst in team history. For our sanity’s sake, our brains have prepared us for such an outcome as the four worst seasons in terms of point differential in the 52-year history of team were 2011, 2009, 2008, and 2012.

We have grown accustomed to being blown out or barely scraping by for a win. The only reason Sunday’s game was even watchable was due to Charles’ herculean efforts along with Peyton Hillis, who decided he was in the mood to run, apparently.

Before the game, I was at the Chiefs VIP tailgate, which was near empty like Arrowhead’s stands. On the plus side, it meant no line for food, beer and autographs from Chiefs Hall-of-Fame safety Deron Cherry. Cherry, who racked up six Pro-Bowl seasons from 1981-1991 with 15 recovered fumbles and 50 interceptions, was a quarterback hunter for a decade. So, I took the time to ask him what he thought about the incoming QB class.

As everyone else has said, he agreed that this year’s crop is less than awe-inspiring, but he was more interested in what the Chiefs would do in the front office. I found it very interesting that he brought that up unsolicited because he was presumably brought in by Chiefs PR for the event. The fact that he said he thinks Crennel should go and it doesn’t make sense to trust Pioli to pick his third head coach in five years  speaks volumes because it was Pioli’s office that hired him for the appearance.

For his part, he said he thinks the Chiefs should bring in Bruce Arians, who has ties to the team as a running backs coach in the late 80’s when Cherry was playing. We’ll be pouring over head coaching options over the next few weeks, but I respectfully disagree with the choice of Arians.

Although he has been an accomplished coordinator for several teams, Arians has never distinguished himself as anything more than that and had a disastrous tenure coaching Temple in the 70’s. He should be highly commended for how he has steered the Colts from afterthought to playoffs in one season, but it’s difficult to tell how much of that was his own efforts and how much came from the team’s wunderkind quarterback and emotional drive to win for their official head coach who has been battling leukemia.

It’s a great story, but so was Romeo Crennel last year, and there are too many parallels there for me to get excited about him.

I’m open to other possibilities, but for now, the rest of my Christmas list reads: Bill Polian, Geno Smith and the ability to hold lofty expectations for this team without subjecting myself to inevitable psychological trauma when they take the field.

And, yes, I am willing to share these presents with others.

I had forgotten that the Chiefs can play good football.

But, as much as playing well and getting a win for a change felt good, it matters very little how the team plays in the remaining four games. 2012 will go down as a miserable lost season.

Obviously, what was merely an ugly season on the field to this point turned much, much darker this weekend with Jovan Belcher’s shocking and depressing murder-suicide. Clearly, that tragedy outweighs anything that happened in the game itself.

Still, this game showed that when this team manages to not commit perilous mistakes, it is a force to be reckoned with. But, the major factors in this win were extremely unexpected. I did not think that today I would be preparing to heap praise on the likes of OC Brian Daboll, WR Jonathan Baldwin and QB Brady Quinn.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Quinn played what was easily the best game of his career going 19/23 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and a QB rating of 132.1. Seriously. Yes, that Brady Quinn. Going into this game, his 2012 stat line was: 402 yards on 81 attempts for 0 TDs, 4 INTs.

While Baldwin only touched the ball twice, they were two of the most important plays of the game. He set up the team’s first touchdown on an opening drive in nearly two years with a big 34-yard catch-and-run. Then, late in the third quarter he used his big frame to box out the corner on a quick slant for a touchdown that all but sealed the game for the Chiefs.

This was also far and away the best showing of HC Romeo Crennel and Daboll. Gone were the head-scratching play calls, the ludicrously conservative decision-making, the wasted timeouts, and general dysfunction. Finally, these two were aggressive and they rolled with what was working – Jamaal Charles and Quinn, who was apparently possessed by a devilishly efficient quarterback demon shortly before the game.

It also bears noting that while Carolina is just 3-9 this year, their defense is ranked eighth against the pass and has allowed the 12^th fewest touchdowns in the league. Amazingly, the Chiefs offense was able win the day despite the fact that QB Cam Newton had about as good of a game as possible, finishing with 310 total yards and three passing touchdowns.

While the Chiefs pass defense took a serious hit when CB Brandon Flowers went down with a hamstring injury, the front seven played reasonably well overall. OLB Justin Houston was great as usual. DE Tyson Jackson built on last week’s strong performance and is making a strong case for being kept on the roster, although surely he’d have to take another pay cut to do so.  NT Dontari Poe appears to be continuing to progress and some guy named Tysyn Hartman lead the team with six tackles.

This win begs the question, what will the Chiefs do if the team somehow wins out and ends the season 6-10? Let me be on the record as saying that nothing, absolutely nothing can excuse the way this team played for most of this season. Even if Quinn continues to impress, GM Scott Pioli can’t claim that starting the guy was his plan all along. And, the team absolutely needs to draft a QB in the first round this year no matter what.

Pioli and Crennel should be forever commended for holding this team together through this tragic week and especially for confronting Belcher in the parking lot in an attempt to keep him from harming anyone else or himself. Still, what was true on Friday is true today — Pioli has failed in key areas of his duties and this team does not currently have a professionally competitive coaching staff.

With remaining games against the Browns, Raiders, Colts and Broncos, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if this team manages to make a run. But what will that mean? Last year, Crennel got his job by winning two of the team’s last three games after a long disappointing stretch. But, this team is capable of far more than just-below-.500 seasons and doubling down on this current crew would send the message that a 6-10 season was a success.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

However, I’m also not in the camp of people hoping this team will be so putrid through the next month that it will earn the dubious honor of holding the 1^st overall pick in the Draft. It appears so far to be a weak QB draft, and guys like Geno Smith will be within reach for Kansas City pretty much no matter how the pick order shakes out. If it takes a RG3-type deal to get the guy that the Chiefs think they need, I’m all for it, but I don’t think it will be necessary.

This season has been a mess, and the team had shown poor mental toughness through 11 weeks of football. But leave it to the Chiefs to shock and surprise you in a game just when you thought you knew what you think about them.

The basic truth is that this Monday is just like every other Monday: we wake up, go to work, the Chiefs lost again, still no one has been fired.

Nothing else really matters right now, but as I was watching last night’s predictably loathsome outing, I was surprised by one thing – Pioli’s draft picks are starting to make a difference.

Up until this point, all the bright spots on this squad had all been drafted by the Herm Edwards regime or earlier – RB Jamaal Charles (3^rd, 2008), OLB Tamba Hali (1^st, 2006), ILB Derrick Johnson (1^st, 2005), CB Brandon Flowers (2nd, 2008), LT Brandon Albert (1^st, 2008), WR Dwayne Bowe (1^st, 2007). It was looking like four years of drafts manned by Scott Pioli and company had been a total waste and the team had overall moved backwards.

Furthermore, looking at injuries and the past performance of both of these teams, this matchup looked brutal. The left side of the Chiefs’ O-line was to be run by two rookies against one of the league’s best pass rushes. With CB Stanford Routt cut, the Chiefs would be defending Peyton Manning’s passes at the flanker and slot positions with CB Javier Arenas and CB Jallil Brown. Four and five receiver sets would put Travis Daniels and Abram Elam on the field. With Jonathan Baldwin out and Bowe nicked up, Terrance Copper and Jeremy Newsome were to see significant action as number-two receivers.

I was mentally preparing myself for watching the blowout of the season. Maybe the century.

To my surprise, due to a valiant defensive effort, Charles, and some uncharacteristic miscues on the part of the Broncos, this was a close, competitive game. Basically, the only reason this game wasn’t a massacre was because Pioli’s draft picks — hitherto invisible and ineffective — finally came to play.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Let’s start with the aforementioned rookie linemen – LT Donald Stephenson (3rd, 2012) and LG Jeff Allen (2^nd, 2012). Along with RG Jon Asamoah (3^rd, 2010), both blocked extremely well in the run game and held their own in pass protection. Allen had already shown flashes this year. This was Stephenson’s coming-out party. With the exception of a dumb clipping penalty that stalled a drive, the ex-Sooner had a good game and looks to be a valuable situational tackle and reserve and for Albert down the road.

The cornerbacks not named Brandon Flowers that I was terrified about actually played head’s up all day. This was easily Arenas’ (2^nd, 2010) most solid all-around game. He covered very well and put the offense in good field position several times in the return game (not that they did anything with it).  While he still has his struggles, Brown (4^th, 2011) also looked like a pro and stuck with his receivers all day.

S Eric Berry (1^st, 2010) had a decent comeback game. Despite allowing one of the two touchdowns, he seems to be finding his way back to playing like a quality starter with a tackle-for-loss and two passes defended.

WR Dexter McCluster (2^nd, 2010) caught every ball thrown his way and had a key 19-yard run on one of the Chiefs better drives. TE Tony Moeaki (3^rd, 2010) is also showing he’s finally healthy after his preseason knee-tear last year.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

As a unit, this was the D-line’s best game this year. While he hasn’t been racking up stats (as expected), NT Dontari Poe (1^st, 2012) is coming into his own and had his name called a lot yesterday with four tackles, a tackle-for-loss and a pass batted down. DE Tyson Jackson (1^st, 2009) is finally looking like a dynamic lineman in several consecutive games and was good following the ball and quarterback, getting to Manning twice for a QB hit and a tackle right on the line of scrimmage that otherwise would have been recorded as a sack.

But, of course, the star of the show (and clearly the best value pick of Pioli’s tenure) was OLB Justin Houston (3^rd, 2011). Amazingly, Houston is outplaying even Hali – the Beast himself. He was a constant terror for Manning and finished the day with four solo tackles, two sacks and four QB hits. He now has nine sacks, one forced fumble, an interception, and four passes defended in 2012.

However, as much as this game would seem to compliment Pioli’s drafting acumen, it was also an indictment of his free agency wheeling-and-dealing. Aside from the obvious failure of the Routt signing, RT Eric Winston has played well but not outstanding and has a tendency to pick up a couple of penalties per game.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Most glaring of course is the quarterback position. Trading the 34^th overall pick in 2009 netted the Chiefs: QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel. Vrabel played just a couple of years for the team and was questionably effective. I don’t need to explain to you how the Cassel experience has been, but suffice to day he was riding the pine this game. Starting in his stead was another free agent acquisition who appears to be a low-end backup. None of QB Brady Quinn’s deep balls were even remotely on target. And while he was efficient in picking up short passes, he was too timid to stretch the field and was dreadfully inaccurate all second half.

WR Steve Breston, who got a five-year deal with $9.5 million guaranteed last year was inactive again behind two practice squad bodies. He has three catches since Week 5. I see absolutely no reason to give the ball to RB Peyton Hillis anymore, who was signed for $3 million this year. He’s slow, accident-prone and just doesn’t give the Chiefs anything they can’t get from RB Shaun Draughn.

Still, the fact that several of the Chiefs’ recent draft picks in the defense and O-line are starting to come to life is unambiguously positive for the team long-term. Hopefully, if these guys can maintain consistency, the next coach/GM won’t feel the need to blow the team up and start over with new young players.

No matter how well these guys play down the stretch, however, I just can’t see a scenario in which it saves Pioli’s job. Even if we do somehow look back at his drafts as being effective a year or two from now, he will still be on the books for constant coaching disarray. We’ve had five offensive coordinators in four years. He fired and denied pay to one head coach after two and a half years, and replaced him with his absolutely hapless friends who turned the brand into a laughing stock. He totally ignored the development of the most important position on the field, and inspired at least one character for the film Horrible Bosses (guess which one).

So, on his way out the door, I’d like to thank Pioli for not drafting totally uselessly. We’ll keep some of these guys as you move on to destroy a different team. Much appreciated.

I was never on the bandwagon for firing Todd Haley last year.

Of course, this all sounds like “I told ya so” talk now, but I enjoyed going back and reading my articles defending Haley and expressing skepticism about Crennel for an entirely different reason: It was a simpler time.

Looking at the old AA pieces I wrote, I realized it was like re-reading diary entries from childhood in the days of innocence before some traumatic event. Back then, we had excuses for our poor play and it seemed like good football was on the horizon. Our coach and quarterback had been disappointing but were still winning some games. The team had an architect that we could still give the benefit of the doubt.

Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE

Now that innocence is gone and we recognize our parents are not paragons of virtue and strength but flawed mortals. The world is full of people who lie and mean people don’t always get punished. This team is off the rails. The last four years have been basically wasted. We have no coach, no QB, no GM and an owner who seems to be conducting a social experiment to determine how long before fans burn Arrowhead to the ground in rage at his inaction.

Back then, we could still say that we had a QB on the roster good enough to get us through games, that we were full of young talent and we were growing a dynasty. Just add water. Today, nothing looks good and people in Chiefs country are dying of anguish and frustration.

It really cannot be overstated. At 1-9, the Chiefs have matched their worst opening to a season in the history of the franchise. I will be honestly stunned if we win another game this year. By every major metric other than rushing production the Chiefs are a disgrace. At this point, both Haley and even Herm Edwards look attractive.

But, it’s really not just because of how bad we are right now. I’ve always thought Haley got a raw deal.

In 2009, Haley was one of 11 head coaches hired. Like Todd, most were successful coordinators somewhere else. Of those 11, only two still have their jobs — Jim Schwartz in Detroit and Rex Ryan in New York, and they’re both 4-6 right now, by the way. By the time Haley was fired only four of those other coaches from the class of 2009 had a better win-loss record – Ryan, Jim Caldwell, Mike Singletary and Jim Mora Jr..

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

So, while that was an admittedly uninspiring crop, Haley was among the most successful coaches hired that year. Also, statistically speaking, it was nearly certain that the Chiefs would have a bad season.

Thirty NFL teams between 2002 and 2009 increased their season-to-season records by five or more games like the Chiefs did between 2009 and 2010. Of them, 24 (80 percent) had worse seasons following their surge – with 13 (43 percent) of them losing at least four more games after their surprising season. There are lots of reasons for this of course, the main one: changes in the strength of schedule. Also, the NFL is just a hard place to maintain success. Let down years are inevitable.

But even Haley somehow won five of 13 games without the ACL crew. He even got a win with Tyler Palko at quarterback while the team this year has only even had a lead in two games so far.

It’s also not as if Haley had a whole lot to work with. In addition to the fact that Pioli was diametrically opposed to putting a quarterback on the field not named Matt Cassel, KC’s defenses were nearly always inconsistent, showing up big in some games and melting away in others. He also had to deal with a sociopathic boss who collects candy wrappers, wiretaps his employees and in the end essentially fired him because he didn’t shave or wear a new hat. (Seriously, I’m quite certain that when Pioli gets off work he goes to sit and stare quizzically at an array of severed heads in jars).

But mostly, I just realized that I honestly liked our team that year. I’m finding it very hard to say the same in 2012. In 2011, we were a team ravaged by injuries playing above our level of talent and clawing for every win. Now, we’re just a bundle of undisciplined players making dumb mistakes and barely giving opponents any resistance as they march up and down the field.

Haley was known for being overly brash on the sidelines, which is something I would love to see these days. Someone needs to yell at these guys. When I heard the criticism about him being verbally aggressive, I always thought it was way overblown. These players are grown men and this is an emotional game – or at least it is unless your name is Romeo. If so, then game day is a time when the bad people make you stand outside for three hours and all you have to read is a laminated sheet of paper while you stare blankly at the field while repeating soup recipes in your head. Or at least that’s what I think he’s doing. Your guess is as good as mine. All I can tell you is that it is not inspiring.

So here we are. Refreshing football news websites over and over hoping to see that someone has been fired. This is what it has come to. We have come of age and discovered that the adults running things are even more screwed up than us little people down below and there’s nothing to do about it.

But, family is family. So, next Sunday and the Sunday after that, I will tune in to watch the Chiefs play. I will cringe and guffaw, and write another piece, although I’m running out of things to say.

Maybe next week this column will be about soup.

How low can they go?

That seems to be the only question left to answer at this point for the Chiefs. Let there be no mistake, the Kansas City Chiefs are the worst team in professional football right now, and will almost certainly remain so through the rest of the 2012 season.

What has led us to this point is also pretty clear. We are on pace to commit the most turnovers ever in an NFL season

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

with an average turnover ratio of -2.6 per game. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have scored few points than us. We’re 28^th in the league in points allowed and hold the dubious distinction of being the only team to never take a lead in a game through the first seven since 1940.

We’re not even close to being a competitive NFL team. The Chiefs are broken.

While no obvious solution to the Chiefs’ woes has yet arisen, we can be certain of what will not fix the team at this point:

1.) The current coaching staff. The team is playing undisciplined, uninspired football and everything this staff tries makes it worse. Opposing teams have scored on their first possession of the second half in every single game against the Chiefs this year. Whatever halftime speeches and adjustments are being made are having the opposite effect.

2.) Brady Quinn. After two weeks of taking the starter’s snaps in practice he did not look like an NFL quarterback before apparently being kidnapped by the medical staff in the first half. His throws were way off, and he looked very uncomfortable in the pocket. Cassel has made horrendous, critical errors in every game this season but, sadly, he is still the best quarterback on the roster.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

3.) Firing Pioli (but it sure would feel good). I’m not suggesting Pioli should not be fired, I just don’t think it will help us in 2012. He purged and replaced practically the entire front office staff and anyone who takes over for him now will be one of his disciples. There’s not much any new GM can change on this team at this point. Last week, I would have advocated sending a fifth-round pick to Miami for QB Matt Moore, who at least knows OC Brian Daboll’s offense and might make the remainder of the season less painful to watch. But now that Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is hurt, chances are zilch that they’ll trade away their backup. So, firing him will not change anything (putting his head on a pike might though).

4.) The defense. With its short, mistake-ridden possessions, the Chiefs offense has consistently put the D in a bad spot, forcing them to defend short fields and stay out there for most of the game. But, the defense, for its part, gives up big plays at inopportune times, allows teams to gash them late and has generally failed to make opportunities of its own. They’re not going to be able to bail us out.

While waiting for the Chiefs’ kickoff (at midnight my time), I watched the Steelers-Redskins game, which ended with a similar score (the Steelers offense looks fantastic under OC Todd Haley by the way). Having lived several years in Washington, I am familiar with their pain as well, but this game was so much different from watching the Chiefs. The ‘Skins have a quarterback. A future. They’re 3-5 and their defense is atrocious. I counted 11 drops by their wideouts in the game. And yet, they kept pace and they had a chance to make something happen all throughout the game. I noticed I was watching their third and fourth downs with genuine anticipation. When watching the Chiefs, I just tense up and brace for the dumbfounding blunder that will inevitably follow.

That’s all I want at this point. A dignified loss. One in which the team fights hard to the end but is eventually overpowered by a better team. One in which the team leaves with battle scars, not self-inflicted wounds.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Watching the Redskins gave me another thought. The Chiefs are not as talented as we think they are, and the sooner we realize that, the better for the team. I lived in DC from 2005-2009. In 2005, the Redskins had a solid defense that it rode to a playoff win at the end of a 10-6 season. On top of that, they had just drafted a quarterback in the late first round and he had spent the year riding the pine and preparing to start.

Instead, Campbell struggled and the team aged. Continually convinced that they were one player away from greatness, the Redskins gave a $100-million contract to Albert Haynesworth and traded high picks for Jason Taylor and Donovan McNabb. Since their 2005 playoff run, they have been 37-59. The solid defense and offensive line they relied on retired and the roster had to be blown up to get young.

You know who else was 10-6 not too long ago? The Cleveland Browns. In 2007, they had a season much like the Chiefs 2010 run. They were effective both on the ground and in the air and looked like a squad full of young stars. All they needed was the right coaches to make them into a dynasty. Through four years and two head-coaching changes, the Brownies ended up 14-34.

What do these three teams have in common? In 2005, the Redskins faced the 5^th easiest schedule in the NFL. The Chiefs in 2010 had the 10^th easiest. The Browns had what appeared to be a tough schedule in 2007, but in the end they had just one win over a team with a winning record by the end of that year (the Seahawks). Likewise, the only winning team the Chiefs beat in 2010 was the Chargers in the home opener.

So, yes, Pioli and Crennel will be gone this year. Matt Cassel is not a good quarterback. But, we shouldn’t expect this team to suddenly dominate with the addition of a new QB or head coach. We were impressive in 2010, but we won against schmos and had a point differential at the end of the season of just +40. The Browns had +20 in 2007. That indicator plus the strength of schedule is a big red flag for teams that are not as good as their records indicate.

Moving forward, we need to forget 2010 and look at this team as what it is — a disaster with a few bright spots. Acknowledging a problem is the first step to fixing it. A lot needs to change on this team. If not, this awful hangover of bad football and self-medication will drag on for many more Mondays (and in this week’s case, Friday).

The Kansas City Chiefs continued to break our hearts this past Sunday, getting trounced by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rumors have surfaced about Pioli’s (and even Crennel’s) future with the team. Though this article was pre-planned by a couple weeks, it’s actually as good a time as any to look ahead to the 2013 offseason to see how the Chiefs’ cards fall as it concerns the roster and salary cap.

To kickoff, let’s start out by listing which players’ contracts are expiring at the end of this season.

A few names that I’m sure have popped out are Albert, Bowe & Dorsey, as they’ve been the most talked-about players whose contracts will be expiring (such talk dating back to at least April), with a lot of that talk being related to how high of a contract these players may demand. Two other names that pop out to me (though whose contracts should be exponentially cheaper) are Colquitt and Gafford. Not only should a punter’s and long-snapper’s value to a team not be underestimated, but they’re among the only players who have been consistently performing up to standard all season.

A lot of how we view what player personnel changes should be made relies on a general idea of how much a player would likely demand and how much money is likely available for the team to use on these players. It’s the latter portion of this speculation that I (and my Spotrac-obsessed hind parts) primarily hope to shed light on this week.

At last announcement, the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million remaining in cap availability; though I’ve indicated in past that some of this money many be promised to players in the form of NLTBE incentives (and thereby wouldn’t show up until next season after the player has earned said incentive, we’ll assume for the sake of this exercise that either such NLTBEs were not set or, if they were set, weren’t met. So the Chiefs should have at least $14.5 million in cap space available next season by rollover alone, but how else is the team looking?

Running the numbers on next season’s non-FAs (read: guys that’ll still be on roster), I’ve discovered that the team currently is set to be allocating approximately $117 million towards cap hitting player expenses. It is likely that next year’s league defined cap will be in the same range as this year’s set cap which is $120.6 million. So, before factoring in rollover money, the Chiefs are only set to have about $3.6 million freed up to spend on FAs (regardless of whether they’re the Chiefs’ own or from other teams). That’s not counting the estimated $7 million dollars that will be required to spend on next season’s draft class. So, without the rollover, the Chiefs are in the hole $3.4 million.

Looks pretty bad at first glance, but let’s tack on the rollover money: that would put the Chiefs $11.1 million under cap after the rookie class is taken into consideration. Okay, now that doesn’t look as bad, but there are at least three big names up for FA and $11.1 million cap availability looks to be able to sign only one.

There appears to be a way around this, but it’s one that Pioli may not like as it involves two of “his” players:

1) Tyson Jackson, through “help” of a contract escalator, is set to be making $14.72 million in base salary next season and has also caused additional cap hits through bonuses amounting to $2.525 million. According to NFL.com’s Brian McIntyre (formerly of Mac’s Football Blog), Tyson Jackson’s 2013 base salary is only guaranteed for $3.22 million. So it looks like a certain someone should probably be cut. In doing so, the Chiefs would free up $11.5 million dollars in cap space (as indicated in a previous article, bonus money has a way of becoming dead money, so we’re looking at $14.72 million minus the guaranteed $3.22 million the Chiefs would be required to pay Jackson out of cap hitting funds). Now we’re up to $22.6 million in available cap space in 2013.

2) Matt Cassel. Though I’ve been unable to locate how much, if any, of Matt Cassel’s base salary for 2013 & 2014 is guaranteed, we’ll assume for this exercise that none of it is, and the only Chiefs obligation would come from bonuses. Cassel is currently set to cause a $9.825 million cap hit in 2013. Were he cut (and again assuming that none of the base salary is guaranteed), the Chiefs would be looking to spend $4.2 million in dead money, freeing up about $5.625 million in 2013. This would bring the available cap space to $28.225 million dollars (assuming a Jackson cut… and, at his ludicrous 2013 salary, why shouldn’t we want to see Jackson cut?).

Now, I realize I just threw out a bunch of numbers in sentence-form, which, if you’re anything like me, makes it a little harder to follow and reference. So to make the presentation of this information a little bit easier, I’ve devised the following table

“EOS” refers to the summation of the expected cap hit Entering the OffSeason (includes both players on roster, including Jackson and Cassel, and the rookie pool of approx. $7 mil). Current rollover is what it sounds like: money that may be expected to be rolled over and help alleviate the cap room. The $11.5 million in the “Jackson” column is what could be expected to be loosened up in cap space were TJax to be cut; same with the $5.625 million in the “Cassel” column.

So the question arises: how should this potential cap money be spent? To help facilitate this line of thinking I’ve developed the following hypothetical situations.

NOTE: One thing to remember in doing these hypotheticals is that, of the 18 positions open due to contracts expiring, seven will be filled through draft (at least as of now, and whose cap hit has already been accounted for in the figures) and two (the lowest priced ones) won’t count towards the cap (cap is determined by the highest 51 contracts of the 53-man roster come the regular season), so nine spots will need to be filled through re-signing the Chiefs FAs, or signing FAs from other teams, or signing UDFAs after the draft. These nine spots will cause a minimum cap hit of $3.51 million [determined as the minimum (rookie) contract of $390,000 X 9 spots].

Hypothetical Situation #1

For whatever reason (brain damage, maybe?), it’s decided to not cut Jackson or Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $11.1 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #2

You’re slightly less brain-damaged and decide to cut Cassel and leave Jackson be. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $16.725 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #3

You’ve decided to cut Jackson, but leave Cassel on board for back-up purposes (he’s an expensive back-up, but provides a veteran presence/experience at the position, so you think the harm to the cap outweighs allowing a rookie squad plus Stanzi to run solo). After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $22.6 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Hypothetical Situation #4

You’ve made the decision to cut both Jackson and Cassel. After taking into account player cap and rookie cap there is approx. $124 million in cap obligations. The $14.5 million in rollover money brings this down to $109.5 million. Cutting Jackson frees up $11.5 million in cap space. Cutting Cassel frees up an additional $5.625 million in cap space. Assuming a league set cap of $120.6 million, you have $28.225 million left to re-sign players. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

Bonus: Hindsight Hypothetical

Not knowing how this season would play out up to this point, you decide to sign all the players in FA that Pioli decided to sign, but you’ve decided to tweak the offseason slightly by also re-signing Carr. The terms of the agreement are the same terms the Cowboys offered him. For the sake of this hypothetical we’re assuming matching these terms would be enough for him to re-sign with the Chiefs, childhood dreams be damned. This season, Carr’s contract hits the cap by $3.2 million; in 2013, it hits the cap by $16.3 million. The rollover money is now $11.3 million (the current $14.5 million minus the $3.2 million cap hit). In adding Carr onto the 2013 roster, and taking rookie cap into account, the new 2013 cap obligations amount to $140.3 million. After deducting the new rollover amount ($11.3 mil), you’re down to $129 million in cap obligations. The league defined cap is still $120.6 mil; you have to come into compliance. Cutting Cassel wouldn’t be enough to come into compliance ($129 mil minus $5.625 mil is still greater than $120.6 mil), so your hand is forced in cutting Jackson to free up that $11.5 mil. Without additionally cutting Cassel (yet), the cap obligations decrease to $118.5 leaving only $2.1 million in available cap (not even enough to re-sign Colquitt). Now by cutting Cassel the available cap can be increased to $7.725. Who gets re-signed? What positions get targeted in the draft?

____________

Of the four, still possible, hypotheticals, I’d personally subscribe to Hypothetical Situation #4. Cutting Jackson seems to me to be a no-brainer (no way is he worth $17.245 million, and I’d rather tie up $5.745 mil in dead money in 2013 for the sake of having the remaining $11.5 million available to help with re-signing players or potentially dabbling in FA with other teams’ players). Though, with Quinn entering FA, cutting Cassel leaves the team without a QB on roster with regular season experience, I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing the Chiefs “double-tap” the QB position in the draft (ideally, Geno Smith in Round 1 and, if he or someone like him drops so far, someone like Collin Klein in Round 3 – keeping in mind that the loss of Carr will likely earn the Chiefs a compensatory Round 3 draft pick); it’d be a risk, what with both players having no NFL experience, but it’s a risk I’d like to see be taken. I know, it’s probably crazy to draft two QBs such as the ‘Skins did this past draft with RGIII and Kirk Cousins, and especially crazy given the team I’m suggesting do it (our beloved Chiefs) given the team’s history in this regard, but God help me, if Klein is available later, despite the Heisman hype, I’d love to see a QB with his fight and passion as the #2 keeping guys pumped on the sideline, and I’d trust someone like him to not do any worse than the Chiefs QBs this year were a situation to arise where he’d have to play. I’m sure it’s a pipe dream, but that’s part of what this exercise is about.

As for how I’d like to see the freed up $28.225 million spent: I’d prefer to see Bowe and Albert re-signed for certain. Given the average costs of WRs and LTs of similar quality, this could cost as little as $8 million in 2013 (akin to Carr’s deal with the ‘Boys where he accepted an incredibly low base salary in the 1^st year of the contract, given that he still received $10 million in signing bonus this season, and just allowed the team to prorate it over the course of five seasons at $2 million a season) or it could cost as high as $20 million (taking the average cap hits of comparable players’ contracts). I’ll assume the 2013 costs to be somewhere in between at $14.225 total for both players (2014’s projected cap hit based on active contracts is only $84.894378, so a deal structure closer to Carr’s wouldn’t be nearly as damaging that year).

So, in my scenario, I’m down to $14 million available. I’d definitely re-sign Colquitt and Gafford who, combined, would likely hit the cap by $3.5 million in 2013, leaving $10.5 million available.

Given that I’d be cutting one starting DE (Jackson) and letting the other walk in FA (Dorsey), I’d probably re-sign Pitoitua (whose re-signing I’m estimating to hit the 2013 cap by $1.5 million) and would gun for a DE in either Round 3 (compensatory Carr pick) or Round 4 in the draft.

Down to $9 million in cap space, I might also bring back Edgar Jones and Lilja (estimating a $2.7 million combined cap hit in 2013, $800,000 for Jones and $1.9 mil for Lilja). Jones has been a boost to ST this year and provides okay LB depth (and is one less position to be targeted in the draft) and Lilja would provide reliable back-up depth, if nothing more, and would help keep the OL more intact as they continue to gel together in this year’s new zone blocking system.

Two cap-hitting roster spots remain in this scenario and I’ll assume they’ll be filled by rookie UDFAs (for a cap hit of about $800,000) bringing the remaining money down to about $5.9 million, which I might let ride into 2014.

For the draft I’d target: QB, ILB (I’m letting both Belcher and Siler walk after all), DE & DB (in that order of importance).

As for my thoughts on the “Hindsight Hypothetical”: Carr really doesn’t look like he’d have been worth it. With only $7.725 mil remaining, which is really only about $4.225 mil after deducting the minimum $3.51 mil for nine open roster spots (which I mentioned in my “note” up there), a ton of useful players would need to be allowed to walk and maybe one of Bowe, Albert or Dorsey (at absolute best) could’ve been re-signed. At risk to be replaced through rookies (by drafting or signing as UDFA) would’ve been QB (Cassel would’ve had to been cut, which looks like an inevitability now, but had he returned to 2010 form would be deemed a problem, and Quinn probably couldn’t be re-signed even if you wanted to), both starting DEs and one of the back-up DEs, two out of three starting OL positions (Albert & Lilja), star WR (Bowe), starting ILB (Belcher) and his best back-up option (Siler), the punter, the long snapper, and two veteran S’s (Daniels and Elam; leaving only current rookie Tysyn Hartman and rookie IR player De’quan Menzie as backups). That would be cause for a massive rebuild (all those positions can’t be addressed in the draft, and not early enough in the draft to be hopeful about the players’ ability to replace the lost players with an equal or higher level) and would put the Chiefs in a much, much worse position than the team currently finds itself in. Not signing Winston, Boss or Routt would’ve cleared up about a maximum of $10 mil to be rolled over into next season, and cleared up active contract requirements in 2013 to the tune of about $18.2 mil for a total of $28.2 mil. These are much nicer figures for signing at least two of the big three in 2013, but doesn’t address the issue of what to do about RT this season (whichever choice being made decreasing the rollover amount), or the depth at TE this season (a “contingency plan” being a top concern considering Moeaki’s early injury in 2011), and the secondary depth would still be the same it is today (meaning it would still not be good enough). Maybe things could’ve worked out, but considering it would require leaving nearly $24.5 mil in available cap this year (for the intent purpose of rolling the money over to help during the 2013 season), the heat from fans and media for any underperformance while having greater cap space availability would be even hotter than it is now; not to mention the heat turning up if Moeaki fell to injury without preemptive back-up efforts being made, or BRich received an extension.

As for whether or not the Chiefs should make a play on Matt Flynn or another prospect to help turn around this season now: just keep in mind that the acquisition of such a player would decrease the available funds for rollover into 2013, and that if such player had a contract for more than just this 2012 season you’d have to increase the cap numbers for 2013, too . This would also affect the hypotheticals and how likely it’d be to re-sign who you deem to be key players next year*. Trading for a QB or picking up a QB from FA (McNabb?? Garrard??) might not be as harmful as re-signing Carr could’ve been. The re-signing of Carr would have not only decreased how much cap was left to rollover into 2013 by $3 mil, but also would have added the obligation of a $16.3 mil cap hit to next season which is what would’ve made it so potentially damaging. So, if you feel a QB now would be worth the cost, feel free to hypothesize in the Comments section, just be mindful that how money is spent in this season does have an effect on what personnel moves may be made next season.

*Assuming that all that changes hands are Flynn and draft picks. If someone like Bowe were traded for Flynn directly, or traded to MIA for picks, and picks traded to SEA for Flynn, then the loss of Bowe’s salary would make up for the addition of Flynn’s. In that case both Albert and Dorsey could be re-signed next year, if so chosen, what with Bowe out of the mix.

Let me hear your thoughts. Which hypothetical would you use? Who would you re-sign? What positions (and maybe even who, specifically) would you target in the draft? After seeing a more comprehensive look at the cap figures, do you think signing Carr would’ve been more trouble than it was worth? Are you still frustrated about this year’s available cap space, even after seeing situations in which it might be put to better use next year? Do you feel a different QB now would be worth the cost elsewhere?

Let me hear it all; I’m curious as to what options my fellow Addicts think would be possible in terms of player personnel moves intended to make the 2013 Chiefs a more competitive team. Despite being mostly realistic, I was admittedly a little pie-in-the-sky with my hopes of drafting both Geno and Klein; feel free to do similarly (but let’s try to not go too extreme into complete delusion, as euphoric as it might be, and keep it more in the realm of realism and where we think our Chiefs might be headed).

Sound off, Addicts!

The time is now to see what Brady Quinn can do. Unlike the classless fools who were cheering the fact that Matt Cassel sustained a head injury, I am not happy that he got hurt. However, the fact that he is means that this is the most sensible to move things over to Quinn.

It can be justified by saying that they want to make sure Cassel is fully healthy before putting him on the field and if Quinn plays well, then no further explanation will be needed as to why he is out there. If he struggles, they can put a healthy Cassel back in there in a few games and claim it was the plan all along.

John David Mercer-US PRESSWIRE

But what are we really going to get out of Quinn? Quinn is a player who has played hot and cold his whole career and played in just 15 NFL games, throwing a total of 356 passes. But, since he threw almost all of those passes in Cleveland, he’s an unknown player for most NFL-watchers.

ESPN’s Scouts Inc. write-up on him notes, “He looks the part and puts up great numbers in workouts as well as the weight room but has struggled to transfer the numbers to the field. He does not have much of a feel for the pass rush and tends to hold on to the ball too long. He struggles to throw the deep ball with accuracy.”

That last bit sounds quite familiar.

One way or the other though I wanted to watch Quinn in a full game before passing judgment. Because we just played the Ravens, I thought it would make sense to go back and watch Quinn against his former division rival to compare him with Cassel. Quinn lost the job to Derek Anderson (which should tell you something) in the middle of the team’s Week 3 game against Baltimore. But, by the time the Ravens came to Cleveland in Week 10, Quinn was back as the starter.

But, after seeing the box score, I decided that game would be a snoozer. The Browns lost 16-0 and Quinn went 13/31 (41.9%) for 99 yards, 0 TD’s, 2 INT’s. Cassel’s line for the day yesterday was 9/15 (60%) for 92 yards and 2 INT’s. In other words, the last time Quinn played the Ravens he threw more and was less effective than Cassel.

But, I figured Quinn deserved a better look than that. So, I decided to go back a game. Cassel was also bad against the Chargers last week, and it just so happened that the Quinn-led Browns played San Diego in Week 13 of the 2009 season.

It turns out that this game was probably the best of Quinn’s career. He went 25/45 (55%) for 271 yards, 3 TD’s, 0 INT’s. While the Chargers were able to march all over the Browns putrid defense, Quinn kept them in this one to the end, eventually falling 30-23.

On the opening drive, Quinn looked sharp and the whole offense had an up-tempo feel. He ended up taking them down for a score and was 6/6 for 61 yards and missile TD to his tight end. It was exactly the type of opening drive that Chiefs have totally failed to muster under Romeo Crennel. With Brian Daboll calling the plays, Quinn in this game continued to look poised and in control, throwing several good 3^rd-down passes on his second read.

Watching a game from three seasons ago is a surreal experience and it shows you how quickly things change in the NFL. At the time this game was played, Indianapolis was 12-0. LT was still playing for the Chargers. S Abram Elam, playing for the Browns, allowed an easy TD to Mike Tolbert.

But, as brilliant as Quinn looked in the first quarter, as the game went on he started looking like Matt Cassel more and more. While he managed to not fumble the ball on a 4^th-down QB sneak, he allowed himself to be stripped while scrambling on 3^rd & Goal. In the end, he finished the first half with 12/20 (60%) for 159 yards, 1 TD, one fumble. All and all, not bad.

Although he managed to get another couple touchdowns in the game, he looked downright bad during large stretches of the second half. Most of his yardage came from YAC after checkdowns. Due to his inaccuracy, at some point Daboll put Josh Cribbs in for an entire drive of wildcat, which Quinn capped off with a short touchdown.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Everyone knows he has guns, but he seemed too eager to show it. All of his throws are bullets, which causes a high amount of drops because the receivers don’t have time to adjust to the ball and it comes in with such a velocity that it bounces off their hands. He beaned his TE in the head on a slant when he wasn’t even looking. Granted, the Browns have had a motley crew of awful receivers for a decade, but he missed several of his guys by a mile. Overall in the game, he missed everything he threw deep and even managed to miss his running backs on checkdowns several times.

And, again, this was probably his best game.

The moral of the story is that the Chiefs need to put Quinn in. Cassel is hurt and hasn’t been very effective. It’s possible that Quinn has improved his game in the last three years. Still though, if his tape is any indication, Quinn is not going to be an improvement over Cassel.

But, I’m not sure he necessarily needs to be more skilled than Cassel, just more efficient. If he can keep the ball moving and not turn it over, than the Chiefs “brawling” (to borrow a phrase from Eric Winston) gameplan can work.

I’m excited to see what he can do, but I think Chiefs fans should have no illusions – this guy is not going to take us to the promised land.

Following a disappointing loss at home to the San Diego Chargers, the Chiefs will stay inKansas City again this Sunday, this time to square off against the Baltimore Ravens. Needless to say, with the way the Chiefs have been playing thus far, this game is likely an easy write-off for most Kansas City fans, but despite this (and after a two week hiatus), I’ve decided to soldier on in the Know Your Enemy series.

Offense

The Baltimore Ravens are currently ranked 5^th in the NFL for scoring on the season, and are performing so well that some analysts and pundits have opined that the Ravens’ offensive performances have actually been exceeding its defensive performances (compared to the previous decade or so of being an indisputably defensive juggernaut).

The Ravens’ offense is steered by QB Joe Flacco. Flacco made some noise over the offseason, proclaiming himself as an “elite quarterback.” Most people chuckled to themselves upon hearing this, but he has put in a commendable season thus far. While I am not willing to label him as elite quite yet, Flacco has played with poise and engineered one fourth-quarter comeback on the year thus far (Week 3’s controversial win over the New England Patriots). In four games, Flacco has completed 63.5% of his passes for 1,269 YDs and 7 TDs, good for a passer rating of 95.8.

But what is a QB without a few good targets to throw to? Though I would not put the Ravens receivers on par with the Falcons receivers (Roddy, Julio, and Gonzo) they may well have the same amount of talent (or slightly more) spread across five players in WRs Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Jacoby Jones, and TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. The most notable of these five are Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta.

Though largely ineffective in last week’s game, Pitta has 18 catches for 188 YDs and 2 TDs on the season and appears to be a valuable target for Flacco in the red zone. Though not receiving quite the targets that Pitta is receiving, Ed Dickson also can contribute quite a bit at TE when called upon and should be perceived as something of a threat.

Meanwhile, Torrey Smith is looking to have a breakout year, having already registered 16 catches for 332 YDs and 3 TDs on the season. Some in-game commentators have sounded shocked by Torrey Smith’s on field production; however, I personally don’t find this too shocking considering that he put up pretty decent stats last season (50 catches for 841 YDs and 7 TDs) despite both having his rookie preseason shortened by the lockout and playing a significant chunk of the season with a hamstring injury.

Between Anquan Boldin and Jacoby Jones, you might think that Boldin is the bigger threat, which he may well be becoming, but up until last week Boldin has been relatively disappointing this season, not getting much separation (and, consequently, targets) during the first three games. No, after Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta, Jacoby Jones looks to be the next biggest receiving threat on this Ravens offense. Having watched all of the Ravens’ games this season, I swear Jacoby Jones seems to be good for two to three HUGE catches per game thus far. Even if Jones doesn’t appear to be much of a factor during the first three quarters of the game, the Chiefs defense should not sleep on him because he has been showing week in and week out that he can be relied upon to make crucial, fourth quarter catches even if they’re among his only targets of the game.

As for the Ravens backfield, Ray Rice continues to impress both on ground and through the air. If Flacco and the passing offense didn’t step up their game this year, you might hear a lot more chatter about Rice. Instead, it seems like Rice’s consistently great play is so expected that the passing game is the new hot thing to talk about. Rice also factors into the passing game receiving and is currently topping the Ravens charts with the most receptions (though with, understandably, less yardage given where his routes take him).

As for their offensive line, the Ravens could be doing a little better. C Matt Birk is 36 years old, and while he’s still an excellent center, a lot of his excellence comes from his knowledge of the game as his physical abilities are in decline, and LT Michael Oher of “The Blind Side” fame is not quite as good on the blind side as you’d expect him to be. I know several Ravens fans griping about wanting the team to move him back to RT where he fares better and trying again on the drafting a LT front. RT Kelechi Osemele is a rookie, LG Ramon Harewood is in his second year (though it is his first year playing in games), and RG Marshall Yanda is in his fifth.season. Yanda has been elected to the Pro Bowl once and may be Baltimore’s best OL at the moment in terms of age, position and ability.

Defense

As previously stated, the Ravens defense is starting to get overshadowed by their offense; however, this does not mean their defense is bad or even average. As much as the Ravens defense has been underperforming compared to last year (when they were No. 2 Defense overall), they are still a top ten defense (coming in at No. 10 right now).

In case you’ve been living under a rock and haven’t heard, the Ravens defense is anchored by timeless players MLB Ray Lewis and S Ed Reed. Though the good news is that these guys are a year older and a bit more of their age is showing, the bad news is (that like Tony Gonzalez) even a slightly less physically capable Lewis and Reed can still be counted among the elite at their positions. Also showing age is NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu who is actually starting to show greater signs of wear.

Besides Reed and Lewis,Baltimore’s next two greatest defenders are DE Haloti Ngata and S Bernard Pollard. You probably know Pollard from such KC snafus as “letting go of Bernard Pollard.” And if you don’t know who Ngata is or what he is capable of, you really should consider just getting rid of that aforementioned rock you’ve been living under.

One positive about facing the Ravens current defense is that they are fronting some lesser experienced players right now. The DE opposite Haloti Ngata is Pernell McPhee, a fifth round draft choice by the Ravens taken in last year’s draft. Due to the loss of LB Terrell Suggs to injury and the loss of LB Jarret Johnson to free agency, the Ravens have been forced to play with rookie Courtney Upshaw and 3^rd year player Paul Kruger at OLB and second year player Albert McClellan at MLB..

CBs Lardarius Webb and Cary Williams flesh out the starting defense, and though capable backs, are overshadowed by the stellar safety play.

Special Teams

Baltimore’s kick returner duties are handled by rookie WR Deonte Thompson and the Punt Returner duties are handled by Jacoby Jones. The Ravens’ kick return game is currently slightly better than the Chiefs’, and their punt return game is slightly worse.

Both teams’ kickers and punters look to be about a wash thus far this season, with Ravens P Sam Koch posting similar stats to Colquitt, and rookie K Justin Tucker posting comparable stats to Succop. Justin Tucker replaces Billy Cundiff at kicker after Cundiff messed up what should have been an easy kick last season in the AFC championship which kept the Ravens from the Super Bowl. It is yet to be seen if Tucker can make such clutch kicks himself, with his only real opportunity to do so this season being during the Ravens win against the Patriots in Week 3. In the last seconds of the game, Tucker shanked a FG far right of center, but luckily it was high enough to go over the top of the goalpost rather than banking off the goal post and according to the NFL Rule Book over the post counts as between the posts and such a play is non-reviewable as only the official directly underneath the post was in any position to make the call. Whether this kick was Tucker experiencing very good luck masking non-clutch play, or whether he experienced bad (but not quite bad enough) luck to turn what would normally be a clutch kick into a near miss is anyone’s guess at this point. If the game’s on the line and the ball isn’t within the 25 yard line, I’d probably be holding my breath were I a Ravens fan until enough time and opportunity passes to determine whether or not my kicker could hit a clutch kick.

_______

As a Chiefs fan, it is admittedly hard to go into this game with a positive outlook. If the Chiefs offense (and particularly Cassel) can play turnover-free football, there might be a fighting chance. And I don’t mean a zeroed out turnover differential where a Cassel INT is canceled out by the defense forcing a turnover. This offense, under Cassel, is likely to not be mentally tough enough to put up with one more turnover, even if it’s made up for by the defense later in the game.

But I will remain positive going into this game for one major reason: negativity is not helping this franchise succeed, and may very well be helping to make it worse.

A scientific study performed at California State University back in 2009 looked into what causes “choke” and “clutch” performances. In a nutshell, the study determined that when an individual first learns a skill, they learn it explicitly; the thought process is methodical, and the motion mechanical (slower and more awkward). After time and practice, these skills develop into becoming implicitly performed, quickly and smoothly. In the realm of pro sports, quick and smooth action tends to be paramount to success (if you telegraph a decision by going about it slower in thought and execution, bad stuff tends to happen). In studying what causes some people to choke and some to be clutch, it was determined that, as pressure to succeed gets higher, how the individual copes with the pressure has a lot to do with how they fare overall. The “chokers” allow the pressure of the situation to seep into their consciousness, they get so concerned with the implications of how they’ll perform their task that they’ll revert back to thinking of the task explicitly; their actions get slow and choppy and they tend to fail (which makes sense since they’ve basically reverted back to how they performed the task when they first learned, a/k/a when they sucked most at the task). Those capable of putting the gravity of the situation out of mind are more likely to be able to perform the task implicitly and, having refined thought and movement, are much more likely to succeed (“be clutch”).

Assuming the findings of this study are true (and I’m apt to believe them as they make perfect sense to me), being demonstratively loud and negative towards people you want to succeed appears to be counteractive to the results you want. Pressure to perform is increased, and the more pressure that mounts, the more likely the individual(s) will perform even poorer. If negativity is only going to exacerbate the problems, I’m not gonna be a part of that.

All this being said, do what you like in showing either your support or dissent, but if you do approach the situation negatively, don’t be the least bit surprised if your actions garner negative results; and not just negative results in the form of current players’ performances, but negative results in the form of luring talented people to the team to perpetuate an upgrade. If Pioli does get fired, Double D may be right in predicting Marty to be his successor; no good person without pre-existing ties to this franchise will likely want to step into such a volatile and hostile environment.

Here’s hoping for a win on Sunday. Go Chiefs.

I cannot say that it is an incompetence thing, a pride or arrogance or attitude thing, a corporate culture thing, or simply a bad luck thing, but I do know that whatever it is, it is without question a very exasperating, very disappointing, excuse-exhausted thing.  I am talking about Scott Pioli’s tenure as general manager of the Kansas City Chiefs Football Club. A hire that initially seemed all hopeful and shiny new has lost all of its brilliance, all of its hope. Sadly for us weary, die-hard fans, the time has come for Clark Hunt to own this failure, start fresh, and try once more.

To that end, I contribute my voice and my vote. I suggest a GM with a proven track record of fixing broken teams, re-infusing them with fundamental football and fiery motivation, and galvanizing all that into a highly competitive, highly feared NFL team, year in and year out. I suggest somebody who is out front with the media, articulate, unafraid to speak his mind and connects with fans in a natural, unpretentious way. I suggest somebody who is also intimately familiar with the Kansas City Chiefs, having served as the team’s head coach for 10 seasons, compiling a 105-58-1 regular season record, and making seven trips (over a 10 year span) to the playoffs in the process.

I am, of course, referring to Marty Schottenheimer. As the next GM of the Kansas City Chiefs, what now ensues are my thoughts as to “What Would Marty Do?”

Now I do not profess to know every last facet about what a GM does but I think I know at least a thing or  two about what the job entails and obsessing over a candy wrapper on the floor just ain’t at the top of that list. No, in terms of building a team, a GM must have a clear vision of what he wants the identity of his team to be, and then finds the people whom he believes will fulfill that vision. The process begins by aligning himself with the right head coach.

So let’s first take just a moment to discuss whether or not Marty Schottenheimer is any good at identifying coaching talent, supporting his coaches, and mentoring them into winners. I think the best way to answer that question is to simply look at his coaching tree. In other words, who are the coaches that have worked under him or are the products of his coaching philosophy?  The short list on that includes the likes of Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin, Tony Dungy, Lovie Smith, Mike McCarthy, Ken Whisenhunt, Cam Cameron, and Chan Gailey to name just a few.

In a nutshell, I have zero concerns about Marty Schottenheimer’s ability to target, acquire and support an effective head coach who he feels has the skills and ability to fulfill his vision and follow his blueprint for creating a successful team. I would go even further to say that Schottenheimer’s experience and influence would likely yield positive results with the development and success of the entire coaching staff.

After teaming himself up with a head coach, together they would roll up their sleeves and undertake the task of putting the remaining staff pieces in place, contemplate which existing players fit the vision, who they might acquire through FA and of course scouting the college ranks. Now a frequently heard knock on Schottenheimer is that he always struggled with getting and/or developing a franchise quarterback. Frankly, I don’t know how much of that knock really ought to be put on Carl Peterson and how much is attributable to Marty, but I do know that one of many personnel run ins that Marty had with AJ Smith out in San Diego was over the decision to let Drew Brees go in favor of Phillip Rivers. That little dust up right there tells me that Marty Schottenheimer might know a thing or two about what goes into being an elite NFL QB.

While we’re on the subject of fielding a franchise quarterback, I don’t think anyone can just assumne that Marty was the problem in KC while he was here. Chiefs’ general management owned a sorry history on that front before Marty arrived in KC and has continued on so since his departure. Is it entirely unreasonable to think that the chronic failure on that account is perhaps more systemic and less coach centric? Let’s also keep in mind that Marty Schottenheimer, as GM, other than in a consulting role, would probably have little to do with developing any individual player as that responsibility would fall mainly upon his head coach and offensive coaching staff. Again, remember, as GM, it would be Marty’s responsibility to support the coaching staff, not do their jobs for them.

If there’s absolutely one thing one must admire about Marty Schottenheimer as a coach, it was his ability to motivate his teams to play nasty, tough football, and just really out of their collective minds. As a GM, it’s hard to imagine that he would not continue to heavily influence that same culture, something the Chiefs have sorely lacked since his departure. It matters not whether he accomplishes that by infecting his coaches with such mentality, or by personally breathing fire into the locker room, it’s a thing that Chiefs football currently lacks and will not thrive without.  Among its many flaws, the Pioli version of Chiefs football lacks fire and one just cannot discount Marty’s Schottenheimer’s charisma nor his ability to inspire hard work and heroic performances out of all who fall under his command.

As to whether or not Marty would be effective in negotiating player contracts, I can’t really say for certain but I do feel that his experience as a former player ought to be of value towards that end.  I also feel that it is in within his skill set to coax some “home town discounts” out of his better players should the need arise. As to the latter, that sort of thing was not uncommon while he was coach and I am pretty sure his involvement in the process had a little to do with such outcomes. In other words, there is no reason to believe that Marty would not be able to maintain and build around his core players and there are good reasons to think he actually would.

In terms of connecting with the fans and media, Marty has always made himself accessible in that regard. As I said before, Marty is not afraid to speak his mind and I would even say he has a certain knack for communicating in a manner that exudes self-confidence but without exhibiting condescension or disrespect. Schottenheimer, just like any GM, is bound to have his detractors but it is highly unlikely he will ever show up to a press conference appearing defensive, unarmed, or otherwise ill-prepared to respond to whatever question comes his way.

Lastly, we must address the biggest knock on Marty, that being his post season track record as a head coach.  About that, I have several thoughts. The thing that first and foremost comes to mind is the fact that, as the GM, and as I hinted at earlier, Marty Schottenheimer would not be on the sideline calling any plays. Secondly, there’s probably nobody in the entire NFL with more motivation to win a championship and cement his legacy. Within the division itself, there is little doubt Marty Schottenheimer would like nothing better than to upstage and redeem himself against the likes of AJ Smith and John Elway. His focus on Raiders week is legendary.

Now I will freely admit that my thinking on this matter is still in its infancy and likely needs some additional reflection and fine tuning. Still, I also feel that the fundamental skills, character traits, intimate familiarity with Kansas City and its football team, and his overall experience all point to making this a sensible reality and that if and when it is, the outcome of such sea change will be quite positive.

Time to share your thoughts Addicts. Is it still too early in the season to start thinking along these lines or have you reached your boiling point, seen enough, and ready to blow this up? If you don’t believe Marty is up to the job of GM, who would you rather see and why? If Clark Hunt pulls the plug on Pioli, who would you have his new GM bring in as a head coach?

If you came here for an in-depth, numbers-based analysis on why the Chiefs suck, you’re in the wrong place this week. This is going to be a purely subjective, knee-jerk explanation of why they suck.

For those that don’t know me, I live and work as a journalist in the Republic of Georgia. The game ended at about 1 a.m. my time and today Georgians are going to the polls in the most competitive elections in this small country’s long history. So I sort of have my hands full.

Nonetheless, I also represent the voice of Chiefs nation as the official Chiefs superfan for the fantastic ESPN Football Today podcast. I send them my thoughts on the game and they are periodically read to the Internet. Below is what I sent them today.

What can been said about the Chiefs in the wake of their third blowout loss this season? They’re hard to watch.

I try not to fly off the handle, but there is mounting evidence for a number of unhappy conclusions about the Chiefs.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

1.) We have the worst coach in the NFL.

The Chiefs have now looked totally unprepared in the first half of three out of four of their games. Obviously, committing a stunning six turnovers is a problem of execution, not play-calling, but the head coach has a lot to do with the team’s focus and composure going into the games. Our players have looked like deer in headlights most of the season across all three phases. The Chiefs actually failed to kick an extra point yesterday. Wrap your head around that. Despite the fact that Romeo Crennel is certainly a brilliant defensive mind, our defense has been the worst in the league.

Worse, Crennel has continued to pursue pathetically vanilla game plans, even when down by multiple TDs, and honestly he seems content to put a few points on the board and lose by just 17 points or so at home. Everything about this team reminds me of the Mike Singletary 49ers, except we don’t go out and hit anyone in the mouth.

When the players come out playing lackadaisical and look defeated in the first half, you need a leader to shout at some people and get them fired up to play. We do not have any such leader on our coaching staff. As much as Todd Haley rubbed people the wrong way, at least he looked like he cared our opponents were mopping the floor with his team.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

2.) Despite its talent, this is a fundamentally flawed team

The Chiefs were built to play stout defense, be productive with the run and have a QB who can keep the game under control. The problem with this model is that there is extremely little margin for error, and when things start going wrong, it all goes wrong. Also, Matt Cassel is not Alex Smith. Up until this point, I bought into the idea that as long as the run game and defense were clicking, we could count on Cassel to manage his end. The problem — other than the fact that the defense has been horrendous — is that, in reality our entire offensive scheme is based around hiding him. He stares down receivers, he’s inaccurate and he takes a lot of sacks. Every Chiefs fan holds his/her breath when Cassel is counted on to make a third-down throw, and despite having the top running back and top-ranked running game in the league, we still can’t make up for his ineptitude.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

3.) Oddly enough, we could still come back in the division fight

Every team in this division has shown inconsistency, and the Chiefs defense has its moments where it is able to lock down halves — just not games. The second half of our schedule is extremely soft and the Chiefs have shown flashes on offense. If we can put together a complete game, we can probably beat anyone in the league. But right now, there’s no team in the league that I can’t imagine them losing to. The fan base and even the KC Star columnists are clamoring for the Chiefs to intentionally tank the season to get a high-round draft pick to use on a quarterback in the next draft, but that’s just stupid. Not only will there be a lot less teams drafting QBs next year, you can still find good quarterbacks in the teens and 20s — Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers and Dan Marino, just to name a few.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

4.) This could be the end of Pioli

It appears that Pioli has now whiffed on two head coaches and has committed serious money and a second-round pick to a bad quarterback who he has protected from any competition for his job over the past four years. All of the team’s best players — Tamba Hali, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Flowers, Derrick Johnson, Brandon Albert etc. — were drafted before he got here, and are peaking right now. His first-round picks are Tyson Jackson, Eric Berry, Jonathan Baldwin and Dontari Poe. None have made a major impact. Still I would not rejoice at his departure, because it means total rebuilding and Chiefs nation is exhausted from starting from scratch over and over again.

I would not be surprised if neither Crennel nor Cassel are on the field by the end of the season. If that’s the case, Pioli is cooked.

What do you guys think about picking up David Garrard?

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Well, Chiefs fans, for those of you who read my article last week, you should’ve walked away knowing a little bit more about salary cap management. You may or may not have jumped to my rallying cry to show the player and team some love, and let the NFL world know that when they go up against the Chiefs they’re not just going up against the players and coaches, they’re going up against every Chiefs fan that bleeds red and gold.

Whether you did or not certainly depends on the individual. Some of you may be too disgusted by Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli’s management of your beloved Chiefs to look past your perception of them and root for the players. After all, Hunt and Pioli are cheapskates (to use the nicer term), right?

Well, according to Spotrac.com, it appears that, of the 32 NFL teams, the Kansas City Chiefs are spending the most cap dollars of any team on active player contracts in 2012.

I’ll wait for you to seek medical attention for your broken jaw; mine slammed pretty hard off of my desk, too…

That was not a misprint: the Kansas City Chiefs, owned by Clark Hunt and family, managed by Scott Pioli, appear to be paying the most of any team on active player contracts this season. Take a look for yourself:

Now, I want to be clear. Spending “the most cap dollars… on active player contracts” does not necessarily mean that the Kansas City Chiefs are using/accounting-for the most cap dollars overall, it means that they’re paying the most cap money towards players currently on the team.

What does that mean?

Though most news outlets will report cap space availability for teams, this is a new day and age, and comes with it a new CBA, wherein available cap space money can be rolled into the next year without the need for teams to exploit loopholes*. This will affect how much cap dollars a team can spend on its players in a given season. This can really alter each team’s cap room which, in turn, will make cap space availability numbers a little less useful without context.

*It used to be that NLTBEs were accounted into the cap during the season they were set, and were the only cap dollars that could be rolled over, provided the player the NLTBE was assigned to didn’t earn it. So to rollover remaining cap monies, teams could make a ridiculous NLTBE late in the season that had no way of happening, say setting an NLTBE in Week 15 that would have your 3^rd string QB receiving all remaining cap dollars if he could throw 10 TDs by the end of the season. He, of course, wouldn’t, but since the NLTBE was accounted for, but not met, the money could be rolled over into the next season. The new CBA made adjustments to this by just letting teams rollover cap dollars without the need for trickery, and having NLTBEs count against the next season’s cap should they be met.

Ex: Let’s say Team A rolls over $1 million from last year’s season into this year’s season, and Team B rolls over $20 million. If after spending, both teams find themselves with a cap availability of $1 million, it won’t be because both teams spent the same amount of money. Rather, Team B would’ve spent more money as it spent both the league defined cap, plus $19 million of the $20 million it rolled over; whereas Team A would’ve only spent the league defined cap, and just didn’t touch its rollover.

But even that is only a portion of how people can confuse salary cap availability with money spent by the club on its active players’ contracts. In the NFL’s salary accounting policies and procedures, there is a certain thing that negatively impacts a team’s salary cap, that doesn’t seem to get a lot of media attention: dead money.

What is dead money? (you ask because you don’t use contractions)

Dead money is generated when a player leaves a team (usually by being cut, but sometimes through retirement or a trade*) and certain parts of their contracts were either guaranteed or solely within the club’s responsibility to pay (e.g. signing bonus). It gets its name because, even though the player is no longer with the team, and therefore doing the team no good, the money must be absorbed and paid for by the club, and it does cause a cap hit. So any dead money that exists keeps a club from spending that much more money on players who are (or can be) signed to the 53-man roster.

*For those left wondering, whether you thought to ask yourself or not, players willfully leaving, or willfully being allowed to leave,  via FA don’t generate dead money, as their contract would’ve been fully satisfied, and there’d be no money left unpaid for a team to absorb.

Ex: Team A and Team B each have a salary cap of $100 million (for the purposes of this example there were no rollovers). Team A has dead money to the tune of $10 million. Team B has dead money to the tune of $2 million. After spending the money on this year’s team, it’s reported that Team A has $1 million in cap availability and Team B has $5 million in camp availability. At face value, and since availability gets reported much more heavily than dead money figures, it appears that Team A is spending more money on their current team than Team B. This is an incorrect assumption. After deducting each team’s dead money from their initial cap, Team A had $90 million to spend for the year, and Team B had $98 million. So though Team A appears on the surface to have spent more money on current player contracts (what with $1 million left compared to Team B’s $5 million left) doing the math shows that Team A has actually only spent $89 million on this year’s roster [$100 million (cap) - $10 million (dead money) - $1 million (available money)]; whereas Team B has actually spent the greater sum having devoted $93 million cap dollars on this year’s roster [$100 million - $2 million - $5 million].

Let’s take a look at each team’s dead money figures:

It should be noted that $460,000-520,000 in dead money is pretty well par for the course for any team in a given year, just due to cuts to fringe players. Here you’ll see the Chiefs have the 7^th least amount of dead money affecting this season’s cap with $2,117,187. Interestingly enough, Demorrio Williams accounts for $1.6 million of this figure, with the remaining $517,187 being spread between 7 different (former) players with Gabe Miller accounting for the second highest figure ($148,875) and Brandon Bair, the least ($4,666).

Another pitfall in using cap availability in judging how much a team is spending on its players’ contracts is, as I touched on last week, that LTBE goals will, for accounting purposes, appear as cap hits on the current season’s salary cap, but whether or not players will earn this/these goal(s) is, of course, not a guarantee until it happens.

So to a common observer who a) doesn’t consider how rollovers affect the cap, b) doesn’t consider dead money and c) doesn’t consider how things such as LTBEs must be taken into account, it’s a quick and easy jump to assume that the more cap space a team has available, the less money that team is spending on its current team. This is the Kansas City Chiefs’ current plight. Fans see that $14.5 million in cap space is remaining, the third most in the league, and assume that Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli are cheap bastards (to use the less nice term). Many Chiefs fans are furious that they’re not spending more. However, as stated at the beginning, of all 32 teams, the Kansas City Chiefs appear to be spending the most cap money this season towards active player contracts.

But how can that be? Wasn’t it just reported back in February that the Chiefs had $63 million in cap space remaining?

At the time that that report was released a few things were taken into account that increased that figure, while several things were not taken into account that would lower that number. Basically, the reported figure was artificially larger than it actually was.

Namely, the $63 million figure included the $24 million (approx.) that the Chiefs rolled over from last season*, but it did not include contract escalators (which, by the way, tend to be non-negotiable devices built into contracts) which amounted to approximately $18 million. Nor did this figure include the money the team was required to pay out to players for NLTBEs offered to them and achieved during the 2011 season and estimated to be about $5 million. Nor did it include money for RFA Tenders (which really wound up just being Jovan Belcher’s for $1.9 million).

*The Chiefs announced through their official team site that they were rolling over $20 million; however sites such as NFL.com, ESPN & Spotrac reported the rollover as approximately $24 million. Given these sites reputability and independence from the organization, we’ll assume the higher number

After deducting the values that were not deducted prior to the report’s release, the Chiefs’ so-called available funds dip to about $38 million (a much more believable figure). Now deduct for Routt’s signing, Dwayne Bowe’s franchise tag and Jovan Belcher’s RFA Tender and we’re down to about $22 million, which is what was reported just before free agency.

Now deduct for the signings of Winston, Boss, Hillis, Quinn, and the rookie class, deduct for the re-signing of Travis Daniels, add money that was freed up through the restructuring of Tyson Jackson’s contract, deduct for Abram Elam and Edgar Jones, and we’re down to $16.5 million. As suggested in last week’s article, it is likely that the $2 million differential between this $16.5 million and the current $14.5 million is due to LTBEs being set for this season.

Okay, so now I see how they went from $63 million to $14.5 million, but if how much the Chiefs are paying on active player contracts is correct, it only appears to be about $8 million over the league defined cap… Pioli just did an interview a week or so ago where he said the Chiefs were spending about $20 million cash over the cap this season.

You are correct in your observation that the contracts amount to about $8 million over the league’s defined base cap. That being said, Scott Pioli is correct that the team is spending about $20 million cash over this same cap.

Alright, now you’re just $*%#@!# with me.

There is a difference between how much cap dollars a team spends in a given season, and how much “committed cash” it spends in a given season. While some things, such as base salary, workout bonuses, roster bonuses, etc., count equally towards both cap dollars and committed cash [Ex: $1 million base salary accounts for $1 million towards the cap and $1 million towards the cash], other things, such as signing bonuses and option bonuses, are accounted for differently.

Ex: Eric Winston signed a 4 year deal that comes with an $8.4 million signing bonus. The entirety of this signing bonus was given to him right away; however, it’s prorated over the course of the 4 year deal so that it hits the cap equally each contract year. So this particular deal is hitting the cap by $2.1 million this year, but hits the committed cash by $8.4 million this year.

Obviously, Winston’s contract isn’t the only contract lending to the difference in cap dollars and committed cash, but at least you can see how the difference comes about.

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So, are Pioli and Hunt cheap bastards? Looking at cap availability alone one would think “yes”; however, everything else seems to indicate otherwise. When the Chiefs announced the rollover of last year’s cap space into this season, Clark Hunt stated that the rollover money would be put to use in continuing to re-sign the Chiefs free agents, as well as to go out and sign some free agents from other teams.

The FO lived up to Clark’s word.

Beginning the 2011 season, the Chiefs had 27 players set to hit FA this past offseason. By controlling the player budget enough that Pioli had some idea of how much money could be rolled over, he was able to re-sign Hali and Flowers to extensions early on in the season, and re-signed Succop to an extension in December (and look how huge that turned out being this past weekend). The team also brought back Brandon Siler, Cory Greenwood, Jake O’Connell, Travis Daniels and Amon Gordon (with only Gordon not working out… by the way, no dead money was generated by Gordon’s short-lived contract). Bowe received the Franchise Tag and Jovan Belcher an RFA Tender which, though not as good as extensions, were at least enough to assure their return to the team (and had some other team picked up Bowe at the cost of 2- 1^st Round Picks, or Belcher for the cost of 1- 2^nd Round Pick, something tells me us fans could’ve lived with it). Of the 17 players that hit FA but were not retained, Carr and Orton are likely the only two to complain about. Six were contemplating retirement, four were just terrible, one couldn’t stay healthy with the Chiefs, and four were still perceived as desirable enough to be picked up. The Chiefs, in turn, picked up Routt, Winston, Boss, Hillis, Quinn, Abram Elam, and Edgar Jones as far as players on roster and hitting the cap go. They also picked up Kyle McCarthy, Martin Rucker and Jacques Reeves who all find themselves on IR and don’t count against the cap.

That’s a pretty good offseason. To be where they’re currently at cap-wise, but to have retained Carr, likely would’ve meant no Routt, no Boss and no Winston. To use more of the cap than is currently available (say by re-signing Carr but still signing Routt, Boss & Winston) means making a tougher time of re-signing the Chiefs pick of next seasons 17 scheduled free agents, and not having much money available to take advantage of other teams’ cap casualty cuts (i.e. next year’s Routts, Boss’s & Winstons).

Some of you might not like to hear it, or even want to accept it (even after all the work I just put in showing how they’re spending money and spending it wisely), but it appears the money isn’t being pocketed, and the current regime isn’t likely to end anytime soon. In fact, it looks like things are getting in order (non-Pioli-negotiated contracts are on the way out) and Pioli & Co. are just hitting their stride. But it should be a positive to know that Clark Hunt does care about the team’s success more than he cares about pocketing the money. Now if only the coaches and players can maximize their talents and do it on a consistent basis, we might just have ourselves a team worthy of championships…

Well, Addicts, if nothing else you’ve come away from this knowing more about your favorite NFL team. Maybe you’ve already given up too much hope to reverse the lynch mob, but the management seems to be giving all they can to the team and the fans; looks like it’s time for the team and the fans to reciprocate. While the team leaves it all out on the field on Sunday, why don’t we be there to back their efforts, and give Philip “Cry Me A” River(s) another miserable Arrowhead experience. GO CHIEFS!!!

We’ll begin this week’s edition of Pressure Points by pointing out that the Chargers, up until being manhandled by the Falcons, were (statistically speaking) regarded by Football Outsiders as among the league’s most the solid, well-rounded teams. As of week 2, FO had them as the 10th most efficient overall, 11th most efficient on offense, 12th most efficient on defense, and 12th most efficient on special teams.  As a result of their performance last Sunday, the Chargers now rank 22nd in overall efficiency, 21st on offense, 20th on defense, and 10th at special teams. I have little doubt that the Chargers are unhappy with how they played against the Falcons and will be seeking to rebound and re-establish themselves as a well-rounded, quality team this Sunday.

Because the overall focus of these articles is to draw attention to potential soft spots of our upcoming opponents, let’s also take a moment to consider the Chargers 2-1 record and how they arrived there. More specifically, how strong was the Chargers start of the season? Well, if you consider the strengths/weaknesses of their first two opponents, I suppose one might reasonably question how much they actually accomplished by beating the Raiders and the Titans. As of week 2, Football Outsiders ranked Tennessee 31st on offense, 28th on defense, and 13th on special teams. The Raiders, as of week 2, were 15th on offense, 25th on defense, and 32nd on special teams.

Now before you jump to the conclusion that the Chargers’ first two wins are entirely attributable to the fact that they faced weak teams only to be exposed in week 3 by what appears to be a very strong team, let’s not overlook the 800 lb gorilla in the room. In spite of a feel-good, rallying win over an 0-3 Saints team, Football Outsiders nevertheless ranks the Chiefs 32nd in overall efficiency, 24th in offensive efficiency, 30th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in special teams efficiency. In other words, as things currently stand, the Chiefs appear to be exactly the kind of team that the Chargers have enjoyed success against. To put it bluntly, in almost every aspect of their game, the Chiefs must either improve immediately or face a season of disappointment, humiliation, well deserved criticism and dashed expectations.

Capiche?

With all that out of way, we’ll begin this by focusing on Phillip Rivers. Three games into the season, FO ranks Rivers 20th in both DYAR and DVOA. Rivers QBR is the 15th best in the league. His TD/INT ratio is 4/3, he owns a  67% completion rate and he’s so far thrown 109 passes for 664 yards.

In this instance, I feel it helps to add a little perspective. As of right now, Matt Cassel is 25th in both DYAR and DVOA, and 16th in QBR. Cassel’s TD/INT ratio is 3/3. He has a 60% completion rate and has thrown 128 passes for 738 yards.

Put simply, 3 weeks in, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest that Rivers is putting up somewhat pedestrian numbers and perhaps the Chiefs ought to consider his presence as something  manageable… as long as they step up and do their jobs that is. As we’ve seen in past years, the best way to manage Phillips is to harass him because that’s when he’s most likely to start making mistakes. Whether the Chiefs are up to that task remains to be seen.

Examining the Chargers’ Offensive Line stats, we see that they currently rank 13th most efficient in pass protection; so, if past performance is any indicator, hassling Rivers won’t be particularly easy. As far as the run game goes, the Chargers, while 20th overall, are the 25th at the 2nd level (5 – 10 yards). They do however rank highly in short yardage situations, so keeping them 3rd and long as much as possible should probably be a key objective for the Chiefs. As far as lanes and gaps are concerned, the Chargers have been very effective (6th best) when they run between the guards but, everywhere else, they rank in the bottom half of the league.

Definitely also worth noting here is that the Chargers starting left tackle is a rookie free agent, Michael Harris, who’s filling in for Jared Gaither, who missed nearly all of training camp and the first three games due to a lingering back problem. He did, however, suit up for practice this week so whether or not he is ready to go for Sunday remains to be seen. I’m guessing Gaither will not be 100% and most likely not starting if he suits up.

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers are below average in a number of areas based on Football Outsiders’ stats. They are 20th against the pass. Their defensive line ranks 27th in beating pass protection. They rank 29th against #1WRs, 24th against passes to RBs, and 18th against “other (e.g., slot) WRs.” If Cassel can be protected and is accurate, there may be opportunities to find success with the likes of Bowe, McCluster, Charles and perhaps even Copper in the passing game.

While 5th overall in defensing the run, the Chargers nevertheless appear to have some exposure against the run. For example, they rank 32nd against power running and are 20th in stuffs. Their weakest spots on the line appear to be the B gaps, where they are 27th on the left side and 21st on the right. Interesting enough, it also appears that their apparent vulnerability on the left side has not been well tested by opposing offenses. The league average attempts to the left B gap is 14% of carries while the Chargers have so far only dealt with their opponents targetting that gap at a 10% rate.

To summarize, on offense, the Chargers main vulnerabilities appear to be: 1) a quarterback with a tendency to make mistakes when pressured, 2) running outside the guards, 3) getting to the second level, and 4) left tackle. On defense, the Chargers appear to be vulnerable against 1) #1 WRs, 2) passes to RBs and “other WRs, ” and 3) runs that target the B gaps, particularly the left B gap.

Those are the Chargers’ pressure points. Addicts, let’s hear your thoughts on what the Chiefs need to do to beat the Chargers.

Arrowhead Addict is presenting a new weekly award called the Fire Chief Of The Week. Each week, hopefully, a Chiefs player distinguishes themselves by performing in an inspirational way — for either one play or during parts of the game. AA Fire Chief of The Week (AAFC) is not a most valuable player award, but could at times be the same player.

First and foremost, the AAFC is meant to be the most inspirational performer — that player who others feed off of — even if it was for one critical set of plays or downs.

This week’s Fire Chiefs Award goes to:

Jamaal Charles Justin Houston and Ryan Succop

Yes, Jamaal Charles was most definitely the MVP of this contest and played inspired football but, Justin Houston was also the Fire Chief of the game because without the defense turning things around in the second half, this victory never would have happened. Also, without Ryan Succop’s six consecutive field goals, this game would not have been won either.

Charles — 233 yards on 33 carries – 7.1 yards per carry. Charles has 323 rushing yards this season.
Houston — three sacks in this game. Houston has 9.5 sacks in his last eight games.
Succop — six straight field goals without a miss, a team record. Field goals of: 25, 45, 34, 38, 43, and 31.

This upcoming Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs head down to New Orleans to give the Saints a time of it. Given that the Saints have been in the national limelight for years (for both good and bad reasons), and that I haven’t been the only staff writer inspecting the upcoming opponent, I’ve decided to take a hiatus on Know Your Enemy this week and address another issue.

It has come to my attention that there are Chiefs fans out there complaining about the Chiefs cap. I don’t see a problem with it. I mean, scroll up and take a look at that bad boy.

Isn’t it great?

What human being could resist the urge to pounce on the debonair gentleman or courtly lady enlightened enough to don this sexy piece of Chiefs apparel? The wearer instantaneously lets others know that they’re not only intelligent, loyal and a humanitarian, but also that they have a keen fashion sense, all by sporting such an adornment on their crown. Heck, it might as well be a crown.

As for the complaints about cap room, unless your Mr. Moneybags and got a fitted cap, there should be a strap in the back you can adjust to tighten it up… Hold on a sec…

They meant salary cap?…

Are you sure???

Okayyyy. Luckily I know a thing or two about how that works.

Following the Falcons Week 1 aerial assault against the Chiefs’ lacking defense, it was clear to all that Kansas City’s CB depth, or lack thereof, should be an area of great concern (and after Sunday’s whomping by the Bills that concern probably extends to the entire defense). This observation was shortly followed by the announcement that the Chiefs still have $14.5 million in available salary cap space (misconstrued by some as being as high as $30 million). An ugly incident occurred through Twitter and Reddit, and even parties not directly involved in this exchange took to the Web to express their own displeasure over KC’s secondary issues and why it shouldn’t exist given the Chiefs’ available cap room; the common consensus being that Clark Hunt (and family) and Scott Pioli must be cheap bastards.

I can’t deny the Chiefs’ secondary concerns, and even wrote about this concern myself during the preseason. But I’m not sold on the salary cap being what it is as a matter of cheapness. No, I’m much more inclined to believe that the cap will be spent on players, just a little bit down the road and in such a way that the cap room currently looks deceptively large. I’ve already pondered that Pioli and the FO may want to roll the available cap into next season to help retain players such as Bowe, Albert and/or Dorsey and/or have cap space remaining to sign some bigger names entering free agency.

But another option exists. One that would pay the Chiefs’ current players more, but only if they can produce on the field. That option is the incentive bonus.

But isn’t that accounted for in the salary cap?

Glad you asked. There are two types of incentive bonuses: those Likely To Be Earned (LTBE), and those Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE). Only LTBEs are accounted for in the salary cap during the season they are expected to be earned. NLTBEs being what they are, not likely to be achieved, are not deducted from the cap in the season they are earned, but rather from the following season’s salary cap. This is where it might pay the Chiefs organization to carry extra money into the 2013 season.

Why take that precaution if the goals are not likely to be earned?

While the goals that are set are determined by the team, the nomenclature of whether such goal is likely or not likely to be earned is determined by league definition. Simplistically, an LTBE goal is one that was attained during the previous season and is therefore expected to be duplicated, whereas an NLTBE goal is a higher goal than was achieved in the previous season and is not considered to be expected to be met. Example: Dwayne Bowe had 5 TDs during the 2011 season. An LTBE goal for him this season would be to get 3 TDs; whereas an NLTBE goal would be 8 TDs (even though Bowe exceeded this goal in 2010).

So what happens if an LTBE goal or an NLTBE goal isn’t met?

If an LTBE goal isn’t met by season’s end, the money that was earmarked for that player/unit is released into the available cap space and may be rolled over into the next season. If an NLTBE goal isn’t met, it just doesn’t have an impact on the current, or next, season’s salary cap.

What kind of goals may these be?

The CBA identifies three categories of incentive goals: (1) Team Incentives, (2) Individual Incentives & (3) Honors and Recognized Media Incentives. Team Incentives and Individual Incentives can be made in most every major statistical category you can think of. Honors and Recognized Media Incentives pertain to the larger honors (Pro Bowl Selection, All-Pro Selection, etc.).

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On September 7^th, Pro Football Talk reported that the Chiefs had approx. $14.5 million in available cap space. The latest report prior to this indicated that the Chiefs had approx. $16.5 million in available cap space. No player additions that would’ve affected the team’s accounting were made in the interim, so the safe bet is that the approx. $2 million differential comes from the making of LTBE goal(s). It should be noted that “win the division” is always considered, by definition, to be an LTBE, and it’s likely that such a goal accounts for some of this differential.

What isn’t known is how much of the remaining cap space is earmarked for the potential earning of NTLBEs. Again, the team’s or player’s performance from the previous season determines whether a goal is likely or not likely, and we can all agree that the 2011 season was disappointing. It wouldn’t take setting goals too high for them to be considered Not Likely To Be Earned. But such goals could include finishing with a winning record, making a deep playoff run, etc.

These are things that both the Chiefs organization as well as its fans want, and are within the potential of the team to earn. But paying the money upfront does not guarantee the player/unit/team will fulfill their potential. In fact, by setting things up so that the players only receive the money by earning it makes perfect sense. If the players earn the money, then great, it’ll mean the team has succeeded to a desirable level, the players will get the money they deserve, and, thanks to the cap management, the money can be paid out without putting the team in a compromising position that would require “cap casualty cuts” next season. If the players don’t produce, that’ll suck, but at least significant rollover cap funds will be available next season to help pull in free agents that may stand a greater chance of helping this team get to where it wants to be.

I know not having Brandon Carr sucks, especially considering the defensive failures of the first two games. But you know what else sucks? Cutting valuable players because you played fast and loose with your cap, and paying players a lot more than they’ll ever earn for the same reason.

More is going on behind the scene than meets the eye. For as much as Pioli gets demonized for this, that and the other thing, I’m not convinced that he’s deserving of such scorn. The way some people would spin it, every letdown the Chiefs experience, collectively or individually, is squarely on Pioli’s shoulders. But one person can’t control the actions of others. Limit their actions, maybe, but not control them. The coaches are not currently living up to their potential. Same with the players. Oh, they have shown at points in the past that they can perform much better than they have been; they just haven’t gotten a handle on it this season thus far. I’m not going to blame Pioli for these individuals’ failures. Their failures belong to them.

Now, I don’t profess to know what exactly is causing these failures. But I do know that I still love the Chiefs. And like with any loved one that makes a mistake, I’m not gonna go into a rage, verbally berate them and tell them to do better or else. I have been appalled at the amount of people that so quickly jumped to that reaction. Such actions have a way of demoralizing any person, and a lack of morale is the last thing this team needs right now. No, I’m gonna support my beloved Chiefs and encourage them to start performing at the level I know they’re capable of, and I appeal to all of you to do the same. A while back, one commenter made the statement that the home crowd shouldn’t make a difference in how well a team performs, and if that’s the case, why is homefield advantage such a huge deal come playoff time? I’ll tell you why: it’s because fan support does matter, it matters a lot more than you might think.

The sky doesn’t have to fall, but the less support there is, the more likely that baby will come crashing down. It took a flurry of Twitter messages conveying fan loyalty to the Chiefs, and respect for his individual abilities, to convince Eric Winston to come to a smaller market in Kansas City, even though he likely could’ve landed a big contract at a dozen other places. I’m curious as to how much drive and motivation could be stirred up in exploding your current Chiefs players’ Twitter accounts with positive, morale-boosting messages. We’re looking for someone to light a spark; what if we could be that spark? Idle support begets idle response. Chiefs fans were once undeniably the best fans in football, let’s embrace that legacy and kick it up a notch. Let the boys hear some noise! Let ‘em know that we not only want to see them kick some ass in New Orleans, but that it’s time to put the women and children to bed and go looking for @#$%#$% dinner… GO CHIEFS!!!!

The business goal of Goldman Sachs is to be successful at making money both for its clients and for itself. If, like Goldman Sachs, making money is the primary standard by which Clark Hunt measures success and worth, then I guess I must admit that his leadership style is certainly effective toward that end. What Clark Hunt may not do is stand shoulder-to-shoulder with other NFL owners, look them in the eye with pride and confidence on the grounds that he also oversees a successful football organization, from top to bottom.

Perhaps it is because Clark Hunt was born into so much money that he knows no other definition for success other than maximizing the accumulation of it. If not attributable to his privileged upbringing, then perhaps it is simply because Mr. Hunt is a true believer of the Goldman Sachs way, perhaps willfully blind to any other. Whatever the case, when it comes to being a winner on Sunday afternoons, Clark Hunt has yet to demonstrate competence at instilling a culture that adheres to what is sometimes called the warrior way. By that, I mean an organizational commitment to technical mastery, loyalty, and honor unto death.

A culture that emphasizes secrecy and surveillance is, by definition, an insecure organization. Insecurity implies distrust. Distrust breeds fear and resentment. The legacy of fear and resentment is disloyalty.

There was once a time when secrecy was not essential to Chiefs football. There once was a time when everyone in the world knew exactly what the Chiefs were planning to do on the very next play. There once was a time when any and all such foreknowledge could not prevent the Chiefs from doing exactly what they intended. That time, that mastery, that loyalty, such honor, is no more.

Scott Pioli, for his part (if reports are to be believed), seems to care about finding candy wrappers just as much as he cares about finding “the right 53.” Again, if reports are to be believed, the type of loyalty that Pioli commands to himself seems to be hewn as much from fear of retaliation as it is from the respect and belief that his approach will result in team success on Sundays.  Truthfully, can it be said that Scott Pioli cultivates technical mastery, loyalty, and honor into this team? If so, where lies the proof?

Romeo Crennel, the “players’” coach, with his victory over the undefeated Packers last season, was a great story for a minute.  The team that he fielded that day was one which appeared to exemplify appreciation for and loyalty to his, shall we say, less emotional approach to coaching. In the players’ minds, Crennel had once been in their shoes, understood what they were going through, and so they relate to him at that level.

It seems increasingly clear now that Crennel’s approach to coaching, while perhaps long on loyalty, seems to be failing miserably in its emphasis on technical mastery and from all appearances, is woefully devoid of “honor unto death.”  Yes, Romeo loves his players and they love him back, but where does the love end, and the toughness begin? Where is the honor in constant  humiliation?

Put simply, Crennel is failing to get his players to execute at the level of which they are capable and more broadly, failing to motivate them. With the harsh days of Haley now past, Crennel has gone the other direction, perhaps more comfortable with the thought of being liked by his team, than pushing the right buttons without regard to whether the players like him or not.

As for the players themselves, the Chiefs field one of the most talented collection of players in the league. For example, when surrounded by the right pieces, Matt Cassel, while perhaps not an “elite” quarterback, has at least demonstrated that he can lead a team to at least 10 or 11 regular season wins. On paper, there is not a backfield in the league that is better than what the Chiefs currently possess.

The Chiefs also lay claim to two first-round wide receivers, a first-round veteran left tackle, and a highly rated right tackle.  Second-round pick Dexter McCluster shows flashes of being a dynamic slot receiver. When effectively used, Steve Breaston can move the chains and occasionally get you chunks of yards. Our two leading tight ends can both catch, block, and get YAC. The Chiefs offense is long on talent and yet lacking in intensity.

The Chiefs defense, same story. They boast six first-round picks, five of whom line up as part of the front seven. Their three best cornerbacks are all second-round picks. Like the offense, they are loaded with talent yet again, lacking in intensity.  When a veteran defenseman plays out of position, that is not a talent issue, that is mental softness issue, a lack of commitment to technical mastery.

On both sides of the line, the Chiefs are being dominated. Crushed. They, like the rest of the team, do not inflict any pain, they are its flaccid victims.

A rally win in New Orleans will not right this ship. Playing the Indian War Chant over the loudspeakers of Arrowhead does not make this a team of warriors. What is required of this organization is a behavioral revolution, one that embraces and embodies the warrior spirit.

Going into yesterday’s game, I thought it was entirely possible the Chiefs would lose. In fact, the Bills were viewed as more or less equal to the Chiefs in terms of talent, so the safe pick in this game was probably Buffalo, given that it was their home opener and they also wanted to make a statement after a blowout loss.

Still, although a loss is just a loss whether you lose by a point or a million, it does matter how you lose, and that’s what stood out most in this game.

Once again, a defense that was supposed to be in the top 10 in the league got carved to pieces. Coverages were routinely blown. Tackling was poor. We had no pressure on the quarterback, and made no plays in the secondary.

After Week 1, I suspected that ILB Derrick Johnson might not yet be fully recovered from his ankle injury. This game pretty much confirms that. He definitely did not show the speed and athleticism that makes him a dynamic player in the middle of his defense. He could not keep up with Buffalo’s running backs and he was horrendous in coverage. Belcher continued to be a huge liability when defending the pass and Flowers looked far from 100 percent.

Timothy T. Ludwig-US PRESSWIRE

No one in the ACL crew looked like they had their 2010 spark back. TE Tony Moeaki was never getting separation and only caught one pass on four targets. Jamaal Charles was totally ineffective in the run game and was put on ice, possibly due to a yet undisclosed injury. S Eric Berry was virtually invisible out there. We now have to consider the possibility that some or all three of those players may never fully recover from their bad knees.

Who would have guessed that S Kendrick Lewis would be so missed?

I presume everyone will now pile on Matt Cassel for this loss, but as with last game, I don’t see it. His stat line was 23/42 for 301 yards, 2 TD 1 INT. In a win, this would be considered a pretty good performance. No one on either side of the ball stepped up when called upon.

I’m just going to say it right now, Jon Baldwin may be a bust. We had high expectations for him given that he was lighting it up in camp, but after seeing how the Chiefs D-backs have been playing, anyone on the AA staff could have come out of St. Joe as a training camp sensation. He wasn’t even targeted against the Falcons and did not look good against the Bills.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

Baldwin never seems to run his routes with confidence and always expects to be able to outmuscle defenders in jump ball situations with his body skills — except that he doesn’t, and one way or the other, we need him to catch and run, not loiter around on the sideline as if he’s playing some elaborate form of Keep Away. In the second half, it was clear that Cassel was forcing the ball to him in the hopes of making something happen deep downfield. Baldwin was never open, never ready and only reeled in half of the balls thrown his way. He got us 62 yards, but in the worst way. I hope I’m wrong about him.

Dexter McCluster, again, was KC’s only reliable receiver, consistently getting open and catching four passes on five targets. TE Kevin Boss again caught a pretty pass, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t miss time after getting knocked out cold after a nasty blow to the head (which wasn’t really a penalty, but the refs gave us that one). As has long been the case, WR Dwayne Bowe emerged in the second half as the Chiefs’ only big-play threat, catching eight passes for 102 yards and 2 TDs.

Timothy T. Ludwig-US PRESSWIRE

This too, however, has a dark undercurrent to it though, as BJ Kissel pointed out on the Chop Talk postgame podcast. It is currently looking like the Chiefs will have to franchise Bowe again this year, to which he will likely respond by holding out again. The alternative is to pay him big bucks that Pioli doesn’t want to shell out and honestly may be more than he is worth. Still, as Kissel said, “This offense is scary to think about without Dwayne Bowe on this team.”

The offensive line, which was also supposed to be a great strength of this team in 2012, floundered. Cassel was under near-constant pressure and took five sacks. In his short, but illustrious career, this is the first time that Bills DT Kyle Williams has gotten two sacks in one game, and he also drove G Jon Asamoah into Charles for a 5-yard loss. Congratulations, Kyle.

RB Peyton Hillis, who was supposed to be the safe, pounding runner, gave up a critical fumble on the 1-yard line.

But, what killed the Chiefs most in this game was not the poor play of individual players or units, it was the shell-shocked reaction of the entire team to the Bills’ initial success. Early in the second quarter you could see the team as a whole shaking their heads and looking at the scoreboard as if to say, “Well, I guess this just isn’t our game.”

This is unacceptable, and it was by far the most infuriating part of this game. This team seemed to be totally unprepared and they gave up early. That’ll happen in high school. It’ll happen in college. This is unacceptable in the pros.

Special teams gave up another long kickoff return for a touchdown at the worst possible time allowing the Bills to seal the victory in the third quarter. Even my wife, who is still learning the game, correctly pointed out that no one looked focused.

Cassel, the usual scapegoat, was also strip-sacked and was never even close to saving us in the game, but he also scrambled well and showed toughness while getting what little was there. In the end, Cassel, McCluster and Bowe seemed like the only players still interested in playing the game by halftime.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

This is where the coach is supposed to come in. Not only did the Chiefs seem unprepared, they looked utterly outcoached on defense. With as bad as DJ has looked against the pass, how could Crennel put him in coverage on TE Scott Chandler – one of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite weapons – in the red zone, allowing him to give up an easy touchdown on virtually the exact same play that Tony G scored with last week?

Comparatively, Brian Daboll’s scheme overall looks like it will get us places this year. I liked some of the matchups he exploited, but I can’t honestly say anything positive about the defense.

After halftime, I was expecting the Chiefs to come back fired up, and, while I knew likely wouldn’t be able to catch up to the Bills, I expected them to at least play like professionals. Instead they came out flatter than before. Crennel, who is known for his friendly, soft-spoken demeanor, was unable to get rally the troops. In that situation, the players didn’t need a friend; they needed leader that would kick them in the ass and tell them to go out and play with pride.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

When it was time for the Chiefs to pick a new head coach after the 2011 season, I was one of the few who went against the grain in suggesting that Crennel was not the best choice. In addition to the fact that he had been unsuccessful in the top job before, many of the things that doomed Todd Haley’s tenure in KC – namely blowout losses – were failures on Crennel’s part as well. Getting torched for lopsided losses is as much the defensive coordinator’s fault as it is the head coach’s. Crennel has now presided as DC over two seasons of disgustingly poor defensive play in the opening games.

Although he engineered big wins in the last three games of the season, not much else stands out in his resume other than the fact that he is from the New England system and the players seem to like him.

After the game, Crennel said he didn’t really know how or why the Chiefs got so thoroughly demolished in the game. Paddy quoted him as saying, “I’m gonna say that I thought we would be better. I really thought that we would be better but we’re not so we’ve got to figure out why that is.”

This is very distressing.

Now, because I have just spewed 1,300+ words of negativity, here’s some happy thoughts for anyone still reading:

1.) The Chiefs came back from blowout losses and crucial injuries in the first two weeks of the season last year, and stayed in division contention to the end. So, if you haven’t blacked it out of your memory, you will recall that you felt this bad after Week 2 last year and it got better.

2.) The Chiefs aren’t the only team that has allowed a league-high 75 points so far in the 2012 season. We are tied with the New Orleans Saints and we play them next week.

3.) Kansas City is currently fifth in the league in total offense, fifth in rushing and 11^th in passing. So, hey, at least that’s not our biggest problem anymore!

4.) As bad as the Chiefs’ loss today was, the Raiders’ beatdown was worse. They got crushed 13-35 against the Miami Dolphins, considered by many to be the worst team in the league.

5.) Speaking of the ‘Phins, it took the team half of the season to learn Daboll’s complicated offense, but after playing awful in their first seven games, Miami went 6-3 starting in Week 9 (against the Chiefs) with a combined score of 222-131. In other words, don’t worry. The Chiefs are just going to be late bloomers.

6.) Remember that Arizona team that we mowed over in the preseason? Well, they just beat the New England Patriots in Foxborough. If they’re good enough to do that, then we must have something.

After flopping badly in their debut performance, the Kansas City Chiefs proceed to take this show on the road. First whistle stop, upstate New York.

I’ll begin this with some generalizations about the Buffalo Bills, and then get into some of the finer details. Like the Chiefs, the 2011 Bills suffered some key injuries that in large part helped derail what looked to be an otherwise promising season. After a strong start and talk of playoff contention, the Bills literally fell apart on the back nine, going 1-8 down the stretch. The 2011 IR casualties included star running back Fred Jackson, NT Kyle Williams, C Erik Wood, NT Terrell Troup, WR Marcus Easley, slot WR Roscoe Parrish, and pass rushing specialist Shawne Merriman. Reportedly Ryan Fitzpatrick also played out the season with a couple of bad ribs after Week 8, the point after which they went 1-8.

Another generalization about the Bills is that they are led by what is widely considered an average QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick. With the right pieces around him, Fitzpatrick can be an efficient game manager. However the popular opinion is that he is not the kind of QB who can typically put his team on his back and win.  Come to think of it, one might reasonably compare Fitz to . . . nah, too easy.

The Bills ranked 19th in passing offense efficiency for 2011 according to Football Outsiders. Aside from Fitz’ pedestrian skills as a signal caller, the Bills were also pretty limited in receiver talent and depth. As far as running the ball goes, the Bills were 2011′s 8th most efficient rushing offense, again referencing Football Outsiders’ “Defense-adjusted Value Over Average” statistical assessment.

Breaking down the Bills 2011 offense even further, we discover that Football Outsiders ranked their offensive line in the top half of the league in most categories. To wit, they ranked 12th most efficient in overall run blocking and tops overall in pass protection.  In the run game, the Bills OL were seventh best at power running, 14th best at avoiding stuffs, ninth best for second level runs, and second best in open field blocking. Along the lanes and gaps, they came in 10th, 20th, 11th, 30th, and second for runs outside the LE, inside LT, M/G, and RT, and outside RE respectively.

Now for the Bills’ offensive pressure points.

Looking at the offensive skill positions, the Bills feature CJ Spiller in the backfield, Stevie Johnson at WR, and TE Scott Chandler. Beyond those three, there does not appear to be much in the cupboard. Unfortunately for the Bills when they face the Chiefs, they will be lacking the services of their best offensive weapon, RB Fred Jackson, who is out with a right knee injury. Jackson is expected to miss the first 3 weeks of the season.

If things weren’t already bad enough, #2 WR David Nelson is on IR after tearing his ACL in the game against the Jets; #1 WR Johnson, hampered by a lingering groin injury, is listed as probable against the Chiefs.

Three words come to mind in characterizing the current state of the Bills’ offensive firepower: Thin, thin, and thin. Short translation, to make this thing go, it will largely be upon Ryan Fitzpatrick to transform himself from a game manager into a field general. That, in turn, begs the question, does Fitz have enough other pieces around him to facilitate said transformation?

The situation in the trenches can be sized up as follows  – extremely solid on the interior but a little suspect at the edges. For example, at left tackle, formerly manned by Demetress Bell, is now the job of rookie Cordy Glenn while the right tackle spot continues to be occupied by veteran Erik Pears. It seems also worth noting that in spite of the fact that Fitzpatrick apparently enjoyed the best pass protection in the league last season, the Bills could only muster a 19th ranking in passing efficiency. That seems to suggest either an indictment of Fitz’ skills as a passer or a lack of quality receivers. Maybe both?

Verdict on the OL - Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blind side protection will and should be tested often this season. Going back to an earlier point, the Bills struggled on runs through the right B gap. That perhaps suggests that Pears, while effective at sealing off the end, and protecting against edge rushers, is nevertheless susceptible to getting overwhelmed with activity that goes inside, to his left. In other words, that right B gap seems like it might be a soft spot for, say, DJ or a safety blitz to make a sack or TFL.

Now for the defensive side of the ball. In 2011, the Bills struggled in just about every facet of defense. Football Outsiders ranked them 28th in efficiency defensing the run and 25th in pass rushing efficiency. Matchups with specific receivers had them 22nd against #1 WRs, 29th against #2 WRs, 1st against “other WRs,” 22nd against TEs, and 20th against RBs.

Much of the 2011 Bills’ struggles in defensing  the pass can be attributed their lack of a pass rush. The Bills clearly recognized this flaw during the offseason, got serious about it, and acquired two DEs in free agency, Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.  One would expect that the Williams acquisition alone should pay immediate dividends in this department.

Football Outsiders ranked 2011 Bills DL 28th overall against the run. At the granular level, they were 14th in efficiency against power running, 32nd in stuffs, 21st in defending at the 2nd level, and 24th against open field rushing.

The return of NT Kyle Williams ought to also be a big boost to the Bills defense, both in stopping the run, and in helping to facilitate a better pass rush. DT Marcell Dareus will be in his second year and can be expected to elevate his game as well. Generally speaking, 2012 should see a much improved defensive line for the Bills.

Other than WLB Kevin Barnett, the Bills the linebacking corps appears to be kind of a work in progress, with SLB Arthur Moats in his 3rd year, and MLB Kelvin Sheppard in his second year.

It is difficult to fairly assess the Bills secondary in light of the defense’s general inability to get the passer last season, but they should, at the very worst, be considered at least average (but also inexperienced, yet possibly improving).  For instance, I would consider Jairus Byrd as among the better safeties in the league. Byrd’s counterpart, George Wilson, on the other hand, seems to me to be a bit suspect.

To shore themselves up at corner, the Bills used their first draft pick on Stephon Gilmore, who has been given a starting role (also noting here that he got roundly schooled by the Jets last Sunday). Playing opposite Gilmore is second-year man Aaron Williams. Like I said, inexperienced but presumably improving. What the Bills do possess in their secondary is quality veteran depth in the likes of Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee.

It will be particularly interesting to see to what extent the Bills’ offseason acquisitions — pass rushers Williams and Anderson, along with the return of Kyle Williams — improve this unit over what we saw last season.

Lastly, the Bills ranked 24th in special teams efficiency.

To recap their weaknesses, I tend to view the Bills offense as somewhat lacking in necessary QB skills, thin with firepower, and very suspect at the left tackle position. On defense, the Bills corners are inexperienced but have good depth behind them, they are suspect at SS, their LBs are for the most part young but improving, and their defensive line is stout (on paper at least). What remains to be seen is whether the Bills combination of youthful talent among their backers and secondary combined with veteran talent and skills along the DL will gel into a more formadible unit than the product the Bills showed in 2011?

Addicts, put on your offensive and defensive coordinator caps and let us hear your gameplan for this Sunday in Buffalo.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

In a couple days the Kansas City Chiefs leave for Buffalo, NY to square off against the Bills in the Chiefs’ first road game of the regular season. Tensions are high for both teams as both suffered crushing defeats in their first games of the season. Of course, Eric Berry also has a bone to pick with Stevie Johnson, but if Stevie’s smart, he may just get “injured” before the game even starts and avoid the abuse every KC defender is likely to inflict on him.

Continuing the Know Your Enemy series, let’s take a look at this weekend’s opposition:

Offense

The Buffalo Bills’ offense is led by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is the type of QB that when he’s on he’s on, but when he’s off he’s really off. Last year, the Bills started off strong and some started to think that they could be the real deal; this started with Ryan Fitzpatrick’s early on. Unfortunately for Bills fans, that also ended with Fitzpatrick when the Bills followed up this hopeful beginning with a  massive losing streak. Fitzpatrick wound up throwing 20 INTs over the last 13 games of the 2011 season. That trend appears to have continued. Fitzpatrick threw 3 INTs to the Jets last week; one of which was a pick six. This is also the fourth game in Fitzpatrick’s last nine starts in which he threw 3+ INTs. Mind you, Fitzpatrick also threw for 3 TDs on Sunday, but two of those came midway through the 4^th quarter when the Jets were leading 41-14, and have been considered by many Buffalo news outlets to be junk TDs.

As far as receiving threats go, Stevie Johnson shouldn’t be underestimated and Donald Jones does well enough, but neither of these players come close to being more formidable than Julio Jones and Roddy White. Likewise Bills TE Scott Chandler is no Tony Gonzalez. Add to the mix WR3 David Nelson suffering an ACL injury in Sunday’s game that has him out for the season, and the subsequent replacement of him by rookie T.J. Graham whom the Bills’ coaches acknowledge is behind in learning the pro game, and the Chiefs are looking to have an easier time with pass defense this weekend.

Onto the running game, there’s good news and there’s bad news. The good news (at least for us) is that Fred Jackson will be out for a knee injury that he incurred during the Bills loss to the Jets. The bad news? Jackson’s back-up C.J. Spiller is no slouch. Though listed as No. 2 on the depth chart, Spiller prides himself in preparing for games as though he were the No. 1 guy, and he looks like he could be a No. 1 RB in the NFL even without injuries elevating him to that position. Following Jackson’s injury in Sunday’s game, Spiller managed to finish the day with 14 carries, 169 yards and 1 TD. To spare you doing the math, that’s an average of over 12 yds/carry. This average is as large as it is due to two large breaks of 56 yards and 49 yards, the 56 yarder being his TD carry. Even factoring out those big gains, though, Spiller still averaged over 5 yards per carry. I won’t go so far as to say Spiller is a better back than Michael Turner (there has to be more frequent and consistent success before that could ever be said), but the Chiefs’ defense will have to be wary of Spiller’s presence on the field and prevent any big breakaways Spiller is hoping to repeat this week.

One last note on Buffalo’s offense: you may or may not have heard of/remember Brad Smith. Drafted out of Missouri in the fourth round of the 2006 Draft by the Jets, the Bills retained his services last year in hopes of utilizing his unique athleticism. Listed as a QB/WR, the Bills intend to utilize Smith in the capacity of a Wildcat QB. Last year’s shortened offseason saw the Bills not quite being able to get this new look off the ground last season; however, with Smith getting in a full offseason this year, the coaching staff will be looking to integrate the Wildcat package all the more into their offensive attack this season. It doesn’t hurt that the Bills hired David Lee to be their QBs coach this season. For those of you who don’t know, Sporting News named Lee “Innovator of the Year” in 2008 for introducing the Wildcat offense to the pro game during his time as OC for the Dolphins. If the Chiefs look to be doing a sound job of neutralizing Spiller and frustrating Fitzpatrick, don’t be surprised to see some Wildcat added to the mix.

Defense

Have you heard that the Buffalo Bills signed Mario Williams? Of course you have. Have you heard that Mario Williams did next to nothing against the Jets? Perhaps not, but it is true. Mario Williams walked away from Sunday’s game recording only one tackle, and not so much as one QB pressure. He’s still the $100 million dollar man on what could be the best defensive line in the NFL, but he didn’t come close to showing why he garnered such a contract and why the Bills’ DL is speculated to be among the best against the Jets. So the good news is that Mario Williams can be neutralized altogether, with the less-than-good news being that he’ll probably have a pretty big chip on his shoulder following Sunday’s game. Though the Bills did not register a single sack in their game against the Jets, the Chiefs OL has shown growing pains in gelling as a unit and allowed the Falcons to register three. In addition to Mario Williams, the Bills DL consists of Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Mark Anderson. Though it may be possible for the Chiefs OL to duplicate the output of the Jets’ generally less talented OL, it will be a hard fought battle to keep these four guys from putting the pressure on Cassel.

Buffalo’s linebacking corps isn’t incredibly noteworthy, but I would be doing him a disservice to not mention OLB Nick Barnett, the Bills greatest threat at the LB position. Prior to getting signed by the Bills last season, Barnett was drafted by, and played eight seasons for, the Green Bay Packers and was even selected by the Associated Press as a second team All-Pro in 2007. Though 31 and a few years removed from national recognition, has consistently registered 100+ tackles per season over his 10 years of experience (save for 2 years, 2008 & 2010, in which he was injured for a significant amount of games).

The Bills’ secondary may be Cassel’s bread and butter. Starting CBs Stephon Gilmore and Aaron Williams are both young guys, and though both players were taken early in their respective drafts (Gilmore 10^th overall this year, and Williams 34^th overall last year) and should develop into excellent cornerbacks in time, the key phrase there is “in time”. Both players’ performances over the preseason and during the first regular season game have caused some concern among the Bills’ coaching staff. The main problem against the Jets is that they were allowing their receivers to run too wide and open. I’m sure Chan Gailey has been and will be stressing this issue during this week’s practice in preparation for the Chiefs, but I’m equally sure that the youth of these players may very well cause them to go to the other extreme and incur quite a few pass interference calls in this weekend’s game. Were we playing Buffalo later in the season, these players might be greater cause for concern, but for now Kansas City should be able to exploit some good matchups.

Special Teams

The Bills are one of those teams that have decided to carry three kicking specialists: a FG kicker, a place kicker, and a punter. Rookie placekicker John Potter has gotten much praise for his work up ‘til now as he has consistently sent his kickoffs through the back of the endzone; Punter Brian Moorman has been consistently good over the years at placing his punts inside the 20; and PR Leodis McKelvin is not a bad guy to have averaging 10 yards per punt return. The Bills punt coverage team does leave much to be desired though, and allowed the Jets to return a punt 68 yards for a TD early in the second quarter.

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Overall, can’t say I’m too terribly concerned about Sunday’s matchup. The Bills look to be a much easier team to exploit and defeat than the Falcons proved to be. One thing to note about Fitzpatrick’s performance against the Jets is that he performed that poorly without New York registering any sacks; with Tamba back and Houston hungry, Fitzpatrick would be a fool to think he could get so lucky a second week in a row. Given the efficiency Cassel displayed in the first half of the Falcons game, I’m one Brandon Flowers away from calling this game a definite lock.

Potential, major momentum shifts caused by Chiefs’ D: 1) Rattle Fitzpatrick early and let the interceptions spring forth; 2) Make Spiller eat turf early and often

Potential, major momentum shifts caused by Chiefs’ O: 1) Neutralize Mario Williams early and let him throw another hissy fit; 2) Play physical enough to goad the young CBs to commit pass interference until they start playing as open as they did last week

Potential, major momentum shifts caused by Chiefs ST: 1) Break open a big PR or KR, even if it can’t be returned for a TD, giving up a huge chunk of yardage should spur PTSD in some of the coverage teams’ personnel

That’s my outlook on the Chiefs’ opponent for the upcoming weekend. If there’s something I missed, you know what to do.

Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

“It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.” – Sun Tzu, Art of War

The Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. As Addicts, odds are that we as fans are well aware of the Chiefs’ strengths and weaknesses, even if we choose not to outwardly express our thoughts and concerns on certain issues. We know our Chiefs, so to speak. But beyond a few players or personnel, not all of us can say the same about knowing the Falcons.

Though Central Pennsylvania tends to be a melting pot for NFL fans, I can’t say that I know any Atlanta Falcons fans that I can speak football with on a regular basis. Deciding to be proactive, I looked a little further in depth to what Atlanta excelled at last season, and what they might be looking to do this season, and wasn’t really pleased with what I discovered.

Offense

The Falcons are generally perceived as one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL. The likes of Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez pose a clear passing threat, and Michael Turner has been one of the better premier backs in the league for some time. This is well-known.

Julio Jones put in an impressive preseason and has shown that he should be worth every bit that GM Thomas Dimitroff gave up in order to draft him. This should also be known.

What may not be known by the average fan is that the Falcons are among the fastest starting teams in the league. Since 2008, the Falcons ranked first in the league for points scored on their first offensive possession (173), and last season ranked third in the league in this category scoring 51 points on opening drives, which includes six touchdowns. It could be said that Atlanta has become quite accustomed to putting up points right off the bat, and if Kansas City can stall such efforts it may be a bigger momentum-shifting, tone-setting course of events than might otherwise be suspected.

Further, the Falcons and Matt Ryan have publicized Atlanta’s intentions to make more big play attempts in the passing game this season. They are going to throw the deep ball, and they are likely going to throw it more often than other teams, and with much more serious threats in Julio Jones and Roddy White. Matt Ryan has gone so far as to state that “… [completing] one out of three [passes] on balls way down the field [is] not a bad day”, so do not expect a couple failed attempts to be enough to deter Atlanta from going to the air on Sunday. The threat of the deep ball will be a daylong threat, and it will be up to the Chiefs’ banged up secondary and hurting pass rush to keep this threat from becoming a reality.

Additionally, the Falcons boast an 83% scoring efficiency on drives lasting 10 or more plays during the period of 2008-present, and own a 40-13 Win/Loss record during this period when Matt Ryan throws at least one touchdown pass during a game. So on top of guarding against the quick, big play, Kansas City will have to safeguard against the long drawn out drives. Peachy.

On a more positive note, Tony Gonzalez is winding down on his career, and though he has not experienced quite as big of a dropoff in productivity as, say, Antonio Gates, he is not the same player we remember so fondly from his time in Kansas City. Returning to Kansas City may give him an added boost in his play, but overall he’s not as big of a threat as some of us may remember; make no mistake about it, though, he is still a threat. Additionally, there has been a lot of speculation over several outlets that Michael Turner may be looking at a decline in his production. Turner has been around long enough for the general wear and tear that comes with being an NFL running back to take its toll on his body and slow him down a bit. The only other Atlanta running back getting a lot of notice this preseason has been Jacquizz Rodgers, and quite frankly, Nate Eachus put in better performances than Jacquizz Rodgers. When the Chiefs’ No. 5 RB looks better than the Falcons’ No. 2 (or 3) RB, it either says great things about the Chiefs, terrible things about the Falcons, or some combination thereof; in any case, if Turner can be shutdown, the remaining options aren’t looking too threatening.

Defense

If the Falcons’ offense is exceptionally good at scoring on their first possession, the Falcons’ defense is exceptionally good at preventing opposing teams from scoring on first offensive possessions. In fact, the Falcons only allowed 16 points to come from opponents’ first possessions last season, with only one touchdown contributing to that total. Since 2008, the Falcons have only allowed 20.1 points per game, and the organization seems to chalk this up in large part due to the team’s ability to set the tone of the game by preventing opponents from scoring on their first possessions. If you’re Romeo Crennel and Brian Daboll, this one seems pretty clear: score, and score at the first opportunity. Even if the drive takes several plays until meeting the end result of points on the board, it will be a great blow to the Falcons to shove the ball down their throat and have them second guessing their defensive decisions and strategy.

During the offseason, Atlanta traded a seventh-round pick to Philadelphia to retain the services of Asante Samuels. This move gives the Falcons three very good players in their secondary at the CB position: Samuels, Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes. Samuels himself is a bit of a ballhawk, but has been justifiably labeled as a bit of a liability at times. Samuels tends to play on instinct, and while sometimes those instincts help lend to his interception totals, he is apt to give up the big play when those instincts cause him to make the wrong decision on where the ball is going.

Brent Grimes is one of the better CBs in the league, and should be likened a bit to Brandon Flowers. Just as Flowers may not be much of a household name outside the AFC West, Grimes may not be much of a household name outside the NFC South. But like with Flowers, this doesn’t make Grimes any less great.

As for Dunta Robinson, he has been somewhat subjected to the stigma of not living up to his potential; this is likely to change this season. The Atlanta Falcons are putting a high priority on getting to the QB this season, and have been devising new blitzing schemes to better incorporate their personnel in reaching this goal; Dunta Robinson is a large part of these new plans. DC Mike Nolan will be playing Robinson out of the slot position, and allowing Robinson to take on a more physical style of football from this position. Robinson is expected to see more blitzing opportunities and couldn’t be happier for it. This might not be too much of a factor for Kansas City. Though Cassel didn’t look too good in the preseason on the longer developing plays where blitzing was involved, the Chiefs did realize quite a bit of success in throwing the shorter, quicker passes utilizing Charles and Hillis out of the backfield, and McCluster and the TEs over the middle. A successful drive against the Falcons may not involve a lot of impressive deeper down the field style plays, but may rather involve chipping yardage off one play at a time and rendering the Falcons’ new blitzing designs largely ineffectual.

Rubbing salt in the defensive wound, the Falcons lost MLB Curtis Lofton during the offseason which will not only have their LB corps hurting quite a bit, but is a big loss to their leadership on that side of the ball. I am much happier that the Chiefs will be facing a Falcons defense without Lofton than a Falcons defense with him.

Special Teams

The Falcons appear to boast an impressive punting game. P Matt Bosher is consistently successful at dropping the ball inside opponents’ own 20-yard lines, and the punt coverage unit was the NFL’s best last year, holding opponents to an average of 4.8 yards per return.

K Matt Bryant is 37 and has likely lost some kicking strength. While I wouldn’t classify him as great, he is performing at a slightly above average level, and can be trusted to ace kicks less than 40 yards, with 40+ yard attempts being a little iffier.

As for Atlanta’s return game, it looks to be in a transitional stage with untested (in regular games) returner Jacquizz Rodgers currently topping the charts. With poor coverage any returner could take it to the house, but the Chiefs do not appear to be likely to give up a TD to a team at this stage of their return game.

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Overall, Sunday’s game will definitely be a tough battle, as Atlanta looks to be among the more well-rounded teams in the league.

Expected momentum shifts the Chiefs’ defense may cause: 1) stopping the fast start; 2) preventing the big play multiple times in a row; 3) holding Atlanta’s drives to nine plays or less before forcing the punt.

Expected moment shifts the Chiefs’ offense may spur: 1) enacting a fast start of their own; 2) beating the blitz; 3) making Atlanta’s D doubt itself (and their FO sorry for letting Lofton go) by striking up the middle by land and by air.

Expected momentum shifts on special teams: 1) engineering punt returns for double digit yardage; 2) forcing Matt Bryant to attempt 40+ yard FGs.

And, of course, the final momentum shifter is Kansas City’s 12^th man: Make it loud, Chiefs fans, and remember, there’s no shame in making their ears bleed: it just adds more red to the field.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs got spanked by the Seattle Seahawks. As infuriating as it is to write that sentence, there’s no way around it. So, who’s to blame? [This is a cue for the Matt Cassel detractors to skip to the Comments section. This article is probably not for you. I’ll wait.]

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Now that I’ve cut down on my readership (which in hindsight was probably a terrible idea), I will say that I think only a small amount of blame should fall on Cassel. WRs dropping passes that should by all means be caught dead to rights is much more a WR failure than a QB failure. Cassel’s fumble occurred from behind as a result of pass blocking failure, and, if he were standing around like a slouch it’d be one thing, but it’s harder to blame Cassel for not protecting the ball when he was reeling up to launch it (I’m actually incredibly curious what the end result would’ve been had Cassel been able to get the pass off, and, right before the fumble, instantly noticed that despite being under pressure and stepping forward Cassel didn’t lose track of where the line of scrimmage was and such a pass would’ve remained legal). And, though it’s never good to see your team’s QB throw a pick, the Chiefs were down by 23 points at the end of the third quarter and in a third down situation, facing certain sack Cassel made a choice that many NFL QBs (including ones among the elite) would’ve made by trying to dump the ball to the only teammate capable of catching it and keeping the drive alive, it just failed in the worst way possible. If the game were closer, I think we should be more upset at the end result (pick six), but in this particular situation, I’m inclined to cut him a break; if he does it in the regular season when the score is closer, or there’s more time left in the game, then I’ll start calling for his head.

Through the first two preseason games, Cassel looked like a better, more confident QB than we’re used to seeing. Does he still checkdown? Yes, but when that habit has been combined with a supporting run game, the Chiefs have been quite successful this preseason. I don’t think checkdowns are a problem when the plays are called right. In fact, one of the most absurd observations I heard following this last game’s blowout is that, during the only TD drive Cassel engineered, he checked down on all but maybe one pass, which I find absurd because why should anyone complain about checkdowns when the end result is a TD? Trying to throw a deeper ball got the team nowhere, after all. Besides that, a checkdown-laden, successful drive makes the opponent’s D more tired, the Chiefs’ D better rested, and yields less time on the clock for the other team to counter with points of their own.

The offensive playcalling witnessed in the Seahawks game was definitely off compared to the much more successful playcalling in the previous two games. Overall, I think the talent is there, and keeping the playcalling of the first two games and slowly working in the bolder plays of the last game will reap rewards over the long haul, so we shouldn’t be too worried going forward, despite this last game’s final score (offensively).

What fans should be worried about is the secondary. Jalil Brown may or may not have unrealized potential, but a CB replacing Brandon Flowers needs more than unmet “potential” if the Chiefs’ secondary wants to be more than a sieve. And the sieve-like tendency isn’t restricted to this year; going over last year’s statistics, it appears there should be less worry over the run defense, and more worry over the pass defense.

I’ve decided to compare the 2011 Kansas City defense to the Top 3 defenses of the season (Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston) to see how the Chiefs stacked up. We’ll start with examining the run defenses.

As can be seen, the KC had the greater numbers across all categories, which looks pretty bad at first glance. But note that opponents tended to run the ball a lot more against KC’s defense than against the other three teams. To even the playing field (so to speak), I decided to determine the likely results of a rushing attempt against KC versus a rushing attempt against the other three teams; this requires generating a TD% and 1^st Down% for each team. [TD% is equivalent to the TD stat divided by Attempts; 1^st Down% is equivalent to 1^st Downs divided by Attempts. As you’ll note, Y/A has already been calculated and included in the table, as this is a more commonly broken down statistic.] The determination of this breakdown is as follows:

As can be seen, the Chiefs still had a significantly higher than desirable TD% having allowed 2.76% of rushing attempts to result in a TD; however the team fared better than most of the other three teams only having allowed 18.9% of the rushing attempts against them to result in a first down, with Baltimore being the only team performing better. As can be seen in the first table, the Y/A average is negligible, and shouldn’t require too much improvement to match a Top 3 defense. Overall, there is still room to improve the run defense to the level of a Top 3 defense, but, as you’ll soon see, the difference is a lot more lopsided when comparing pass defenses.

The pass defense stats for each of these teams are as follows:

Looking over the table you’ll see that, despite having had less attempts made against them, and having allowed less completions, the Chiefs defense allowed the highest number in each of the remaining categories. So, right off the bat you should know the comparison isn’t going to bode well at all for Kansas City. But keeping with the formula used in comparing run defenses, I’ve calculated the TD% and 1^st Down% to determine the likely results of a passing attempt against KC versus a passing attempt against the other three teams, throwing in the pass completion percentage, as well.

Not only were opponents significantly more likely to complete a pass against the Kansas City defense than the other three teams, but they were also significantly more likely to see that completion turn into a TD or 1st Down, and by a much greater margin than when comparing run defenses. These numbers are unacceptable, and should have us a lot more worried about the team’s pass defense than their run defense, especially when you consider that last year’s secondary consisted of Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and Kendrick Lewis, none of whom are currently able to play for the team (Flowers and Lewis over those pesky injuries, and Carr over that pesky “on another team’s roster” thing).

Only so much of last year’s pass defense failures can be blamed on the rotating starters at the SS position, and on Belcher (a/k/a the defense’s Matt Cassel), and while I think that Routt will adequately replace Carr, and Elam will be a suitable fill-in for Lewis, not even the return of Eric Berry will fully make up for the (albeit temporary) loss of Flowers and the subsequent promotion of Jalil Brown to starting CB.

As the defensive situation currently stands, mobile QBs certainly seem to be an Achilles’ heel, as do better WRs than Jalil Brown can handle (such as Amendola). Only time will tell how Kansas City’s secondary will shake itself out, but make no mistake about it, the Chiefs’ pass defense should be a primary cause for concern, and three above average players in the secondary will be lucky to duplicate last year’s disappointing figures, let alone improve on those numbers. With Berry knocking off more of the rust accrued from not playing last season, and the front seven improving in the pass rush (Hali’s suspension for the Atlanta game notwithstanding), we may have more hope than I’m letting on; however, let us still hope that Lewis and Flowers (especially Flowers) find their way onto the field sooner rather than later, or the Chiefs will very likely be in for a rocky start.

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

Well, Kansas City fans, at this point during the week I’m sure we’re all a little exhausted of hearing about the the Chiefs’ failure against the Rams Saturday night. The Chiefs secondary was lacking in some things (to say the least), the injured status of Kendrick Lewis and Brandon Flowers has us all concerned and Ricky Stanzi performed miserably. To boot, we all have questions pertaining to just what caused Tamba Hali’s suspension. But let’s try to brighten up here. Bowe is back, Cassel is continuing to do well in Daboll’s offense and, at the pace he’s going, Peyton Hillis is looking to be a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. Further, the Chiefs are better off seeing the weakness in their D now instead of, say, the fourth preseason game; the two remaining preseason games should provide us fans with a good litmus test for what to expect from our Chiefs at the start of the regular season now that Crennel knows just what kind of adjustments need made that could hamper some of the better QBs in the league, several of which the team’ll be facing right off the bat.

Before making my predictions last week, I considered how I saw the Chiefs’ 53-man roster fleshing out and drew the following conclusions:

ST: K – 1, P – 1, LS – 1

OFF: QB – 3, RB – 4, WR – 7, OL – 8 or 7, TE – 3 or 4 (8 OL & 3 TE, or 7 OL & 4 TE)

DEF: DL – 7 or 8, LB – 8, DBs– 10 or 9 (7 DL & 10 DBs, or 8  & 9, respectively)

When considering this structure, I felt a few position group numbers were a little high, but a quick look at last year’s roster, courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, assured me that I’m pretty well in the ballpark. And, yes, having a minimum of nine guys in the secondary and a possible ten still seems a little excessive, but when you consider that last year’s active roster, at one point or another, included Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis, Jalil Brown, Travis Daniels, Javier Arenas, Reshard Langford, Jon McGraw, Donald Washington & Sabby Piscitelli, I’m not too far off base. Of the nine or ten DBs I expect to make the roster, do I expect all of them to be on the active roster come game day? No; just as I don’t expect the 7^th WR, 8^th OL, 8^th LB, or 3^rd QB to be on the active roster. Remember, though it’s a 53-man roster, only a maximum of 46 players may be active on game day (up from the previous CBAs 45-man limit), which leads us to this week’s predictions:

1.  With Flowers and Lewis out for an indeterminate amount of time, Crennel will take a hard look at the DBs on roster (I know, I’m friggin’ Nostradamus, right?). Chalking up Saturday’s problems to a secondary that is “young”, “inexperienced” and lacking “maturity”, Crennel will focus mostly on filling out the roster with the more veteran players. Though some of these players’ ceilings may not be as high as some of the newer guys, their consistency and reliability in the short term will prevail over longer term, but potentially better, developmental projects. As I see it the roster will consist of : 1. Flowers; 2. Routt; 3. Berry; 4. Lewis; 5. Abram Elam; 6. Travis Daniels; 7. Jalil Brown; and, 8. Javier Arenas. This leaves one maybe two spots to take on either Jacques Reeves and a project player, or two project players, with the likely candidates being Dequan Menzie, Terrance Parks and Tysyn Hartman. Dequan Menzie may be in the same boat as Junior Hemingway; an injury plagued camp may spell practice squad, but I think the odds of that are worse than with Hemingway, and choosing Menzie and either Parks or Hartman over Reeves to fill out the bottom of the roster wouldn’t be too surprising. That being said, I could somewhat understand if Reeves was chosen to stay on roster with the other candidates being practice squad eligible. In any event I would not be shocked to see all three of Menzie, Parks & Hartman keep ties with the team, even if one or two is/are kept in the capacity of practice squad player(s). The remaining options (Fenner, Fanor, etc.) just don’t strike me as making the cut in any capacity.  That includes Donald Washington, who despite being a veteran and “more mature”, seems to me to be too costly of a save at this point.

Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE

2. Stanzi will still make the roster, but as the No. 3 QB and only for the purposes of continued development. He’s just not looking that good right now, and if a playoff berth is still in the cards and push comes to shove (Cassel and Quinn are unable to play), Pioli has enough sense to make a powerplay for a much better QB. The three I could see getting the most consideration in this hypothetical situation are Matt Moore, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. Moore has the most (and recent) experience in a Daboll-driven offense and could slide in and understand the terminology, assignments, etc. the easiest. Hasselbeck, on top of the reasons Paddy pointed out, not only provides consistently good play, but given his age would not be perceived as a threat to Cassel. And I think Sanchez is simply better than he’s given credit for: he’s actually improved every year he’s been in the league, he has playoff wins under his belt, and given a more stable locker room and stronger supporting offensive cast, I think he would surprise. Obviously, this hypothetical scenario also takes place later in the season where Moore, Hasselbeck and Sanchez may be seen as expendable for the right price. In any case, I don’t see Stanzi taking the field if the Chiefs still have a shot at the playoffs; until he shows us significantly more than he has, I think I’d rather see Zorn suit-up and take the field.

3. Following another lackluster game performance, Josh Bellamy’s stock has dropped some, but he should still be counted as a candidate for the last WR slot (though arguments for Markshausen and, as KCMikeG pointed out, Jamar Newsome have gotten stronger). Bear in mind that a) the last WR isn’t likely to sniff the active roster, b) injury to Bowe or Baldwin will be overcome by Breaston resuming the role of the No. 2 WR, a role he held for most of his career (remember: Boldin played out of the slot in Arizona), and c) an injury to McCluster will result in Breaston, and eventually Wylie, being able to fulfill the role being carved out by Dex. If Breaston or Wylie get injured, it’ll be a blow, but likely not a humongous one. If any two of Bowe, Baldwin and Breaston get injured, the Chiefs would definitely be in trouble, but unless both of those injuries were expected to be long-term, I’d anticipate we’d see Daboll calling for more 2-TE sets until one of the guys returned.

Cary Edmondson-US PRESSWIRE

4. I’ve grown quite fond of Kendrick Lewis. As last year wore on after Berry’s injury, Lewis started to improve by leaps and bounds, and I firmly believe he is a better player now than he otherwise would’ve been at this point in his career had Berry not been injured. In the face of adversity, Kendrick rose to the occasion, and how can you not love a player capable of that? But that being said, I agree with AA’s own Lyle Graversen that the loss of Flowers is greater than the loss of Lewis. Abram Elam will provide adequate temporary replacement of Lewis until Lewis can heal up; however, one of the greatest disappointments concerning Kendrick’s injury is that the newly implemented defensive scheme of putting Lewis and Elam in at safety and letting Eric Berry roam freely and wreak havoc is in danger of not being utilized until his Lewis’ return. Enter Travis Daniels. I’ll admit, I was pretty indifferent to Travis Daniels prior to this season (didn’t love him, didn’t hate him), but since he switched to taking on safety duties, I have a little more hope in his capability to make significant contributions to the team. There are two preseason games left, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see Daniels tested harder at safety to see if he can provide suitable replacement for Lewis in the new scheme so it can start being effectively used before Lewis heals up and returns. With Tamba a certain loss in the Atlanta game, and Flowers and Lewis uncertainties as to whether or not they’ll play, Daniels being coached up enough so that the new scheme isn’t a liability may be integral to a Chiefs victory on opening day. That may be a lot of faith to put into Daniels, but a roving Berry may be the team’s best hope for a victorious pass defense without Flowers, Lewis and Hali in the mix.

Thus concludes my predictions/observations for this week, Addicts. If you disagree with anything I’ve said or proposed, or think that there’s a player I’m not giving enough credit to (or giving too much credit to, for that matter), let me hear it in the “Comments” section. And as always, Go Chiefs!!!!!

We’re halfway through the preseason and I’ve learned a few things about this Brian Daboll-led offense. Some of these things are certain to incite riots among the angry Arrowhead mobs I’ve been surrounded by lately. If you have violent reactions to Matt Cassel or Dexter McCluster being heralded in any way, turn away now! Take all of this with a grain of salt and please remember that I’m a lover not a fighter.

1. Matt Cassel will be efficient.

Remember when I said that one of Daboll’s job responsibilities was to maximize Cassel’s strengths? That’s precisely what Daboll has done thus far. This is the most efficient Cassel has ever been. He’s completed 75% of his passes and posted a 114 QBR through the first two preseason games. He’s done this without Dwayne Bowe or any real contribution from Breaston or Baldwin. That’s a testament to how comfortable Cassel currently is with Daboll’s system and coaching. I think it also helps that his new offensive coordinator is trusting of him and allows him some measure of control over the offense. Cassel’s clearly taken advantage of the opportunity to check at the line of scrimmage. A confident Cassel with a cadre of offensive weapons could very well mean a return to his 2010 form. It should also be noted that Cassel’s been putting the ball in the right spots and seems to have more velocity on his passes (courtesy of Tom House).

2. Dexter McCluster will make his biggest offensive contribution yet.

McCluster, or Public Enemy #3 in Chiefs country (Pioli and Cassel own the top two spots), has quietly made the decision to move him back to the Receiving corps look good. Daboll believes he can be beneficial to this offensive group so he’ll be used in a number of ways. The presence of Bowe, Breaston, and Baldwin on the outside will leave room for Dex to hurt defenses underneath.  McCluster’s precise route-running and quickness have already helped him to become one of Matt Cassel’s favorite targets. Dex leads all Chiefs receivers with 69 receiving yards this preseason. He’s averaging 11.3 yards per catch.

3. The Chiefs will be more successful at converting third downs.

Kansas City was 19th in the league in 2011, converting just 36% of their third downs. While I don’t expect them to be a Top 10 unit in this category, I think they will improve upon that number. Peyton Hillis answers the problem the Chiefs have had in short-yardage situations. McCluster, Boss, and Moeaki provide great pass-catching options for anything under 7 yards. I’d venture to guess that we’ll also see the right play called on a more regular basis. Too often, under Haley’s leadership, run plays and pass plays were interchanged on big third downs.

4. Jonathan Baldwin still has some growing up to do.

Despite an impressive training camp, Chiefs second-year WR Jon Baldwin has struggled in the opening two games of the preseason. He logged just one catch in Saturday night’s matchup with the St. Louis Rams. No sooner than he’d caught the football, he put it on the ground, and St. Louis promptly took advantage of the turnover. Baldwin’s swagger in St. Joseph hasn’t translated onto the field yet. Things won’t be any easier for him now that Bowe’s back in the fold. He’ll see fewer reps with the top offensive unit. Steve Breaston is a polished veteran who will hold the #2 WR job down until Baldwin pushes him to the slot. Time will tell if he can force him out of that role.

Two games left to play before the regular season opener. I look forward to adding a few more items to this list. Hopefully we’ll cover more ground and I can tell you what I learned about the offensive line, Devon Wylie, and Dwayne Bowe.

Until then Addicts, adios!

Consider this an extension of the “Of Combines and Correlations” series if you will.  However, instead of looking at just rookie scores, I’ve decided to take it a step further to see how our entire roster performed in physical attribute testing, whether through the NFL Combine or Pro Days, how those players compare amongst themselves within their position group, how they stack up against their NFL position peers, and then maybe make some assessments as whether they are beating the odds or falling in line with Joe Landers predictive model.  If you’re new to this approach, you can get a better understanding of what this is all about and perhaps why it even matters by simply reviewing Of Combines and Correlations – Part 1.

Today, we take a look at physical attribute scores for the current roster of Chiefs wide recievers as shown below.

As perhaps you may recall from Of Combines and Correlations – Part 4, Landers concludes from his statistical analysis of the 5 year combine database ending in 2008, that wide receivers who exceeded peer average in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump, plus earned at least two EPAs on top of that had the best odds for future NFL success and that 6 EPAs was optimal, again provided that EPAs in the 40 and VJ were among the EPAs earned.

The first thing that probably catches your eyes here is Josh Bellamy’s perfect* score of 7 EPAs (*noting that WRs almost never participate in the Long Shuttle Drill). 7 would seem even better than 6, right? Well, going off of Landers 5 year dataset, only one receiver achieved 7 EPAs, and as of 2008, that player was not a starter but did at least make roster.  So noted, given the small sample size, I personally wouldn’t make any statistical distinction between 7 EPAs and the optimum 6 EPAs.

Breaking it down a little, the current roster is composed of 3 receivers who achieved 6 EPAs or better, Bellamy, Kinnie, and Wylie, all of whom are rookies.  4th round pick Wylie seems to be leading the pack in terms of camp productivity however the undrafted rookies, Bellamy and local product Kinnie, have certainly also made some plays when given the opportunity.  It’s tough to figure out at this point what the Chiefs plan to do with all this fresh infusion of speed and athleticism in the context of a 53 man roster, but it will be an interesting story to watch nonetheless. Also, keep in mind that Landers timeline for determining NFL success (i.e., 1st teamer status) is 5 years or less from the time of being drafted (or in the case of UDFA’s, being signed).

Of these three, I suppose I am most optimistic about Wylie in terms of making the 53 man roster and having an immediate impact as a returner. In the case of Bellamy, he’s definitely garnered a lot of well deserved attention in training camp to date. Similarly, Kinnie has flashed some ability as a big, speedy, physical red zone threat with good hands.

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending upon how one views the situation, the Chiefs are likely to only keep 6 receivers on the active roster and those most likely to make the final cut at this point seem to be Bowe, Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, Wylie and I’m going to guess Copper (as a special teamer).  In the case of both Bellamy and Kinnie, even if the Chiefs are intending to slate both for the practice squad (and let’s not  leave Jeremy Horne out of this conversation either) I would really hate to see either of those guys get snatched up on waivers while we’re waiting to place them on the practice squad.

Of course, there remains several weeks before the Chiefs have to make that final cut. Things can change, injuries, competition, whatever so perhaps one or more of these guys on the outside develops quickly between now and then and earns (or steps into) an open roster spot? Scott Pioli also needs to think about the long term future of the organization.

Will Bowe be signed to a long term deal? Will he be franchised two years in a row (that second year gets pretty expensive mind you)? There are a number of things going on that suggest to me that this will be Dwayne Bowe’s last season with the Chiefs. Hopefully we get something valuable in exchange for him.

I’m also not all that certain that Steve Breaston will be around much longer either. His contract is not expensive and his production last season was nothing to write home about. I strongly recommend everyone link here to get Football Outsiders evaluation of both Bowe’s and Breaston’s 2011 campaign. Frankly, neither particularly wowed in terms of elite receiver qualifications.

With what appears to be the recent emergence of Baldwin and McCluster, along with the need to develop a receiver or two to replace Bowe, perhaps Breaston suddenly becomes expendable and one or more of these guys on the bubble can avoid the practice team/waiver conundrum and gets a year to develop as part of the regular 53 man squad? It’s also hard to say at this point whether Copper is a lock between now and the final cut.

That my Double Take Addicts.

Let me hear your thoughts on all this. Are you impressed by the physical talent and potential of the Chiefs’ rookie wide receivers this year? Are you at all surprised by what appears to be a less-than-ideal physical attribute skills of the receivers currently on the roster;  especially considering we’re talking about guys that most might consider the mainstays of our receiver corps? Lastly, what do you think holds for the future of this group?

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel find themselves in an uncommon predicament in Kansas City. The Chiefs have more depth than they’ve had in years, and it’s time to start pruning back the roster. While Pioli has more notable experience at this task due to his time in New England, RAC’s experience as HC in Cleveland was probably less “which player is better” and more “which player sucks less”.

Further, the CBA explicitly leaves it to each team to determine its own cutdown schedule, which for Pioli, at least, tasks him with determining what moves are best for the team that’ll play the regular season and what moves are best for the ledger. You see, while the Chiefs could hold, in theory, hold all players until the end of the preseason, making all cuts and practice squad assignments in one fell swoop, they also have to pay each player each week they remain on roster (plus housing, meals and other costs). For players that have not yet accrued one NFL season the rate is $850 per week. For the remaining players, who are considered veterans with at least one season under belt, the sum is $1,600 per week.

Being in a position not so concerned about the business aspect of the NFL, Crennel will obviously be interested in getting the best players for his team on the 53-man roster.

A few position groups look a little tighter than others and will warrant longer looks. The Chiefs’ RB/FB group, DL & OL look particularly tight. Their LB corps also looks tight outside of DJ, Hali, Houston & Belcher/Siler, but the talent dropoff is a little bit more noticeable for the remainders (which is bound to happen when compared to DJ, Hali and the emerging Houston). The WRs and DBs are overcrowded, but a few names are clearly improving and impressing over others so it might not be as tight as it looks on paper. QBs look pretty straightforward (Cassel, Quinn & Stanzi on roster and Tanney on the practice squad), as does TE (Boss, Moeaki & Maneri on roster for sure; maybe Biere or O’Connell if they decide to keep a fourth).

A couple important things to note is that, while it is a 53-man roster, the practice squad is allowed up to 8 players (9 if the team puts an international player on the squad as the 9th person, which doesn’t look to be pertinent to the Chiefs this year). So realistically, of the 90 men on roster, only 29 must be cut from the team completely. Also an interesting point to note is that, while any team can sign a player from another team’s practice squad, they may only do so in the interest of adding the player to the second team’s own 53-man roster; the CBA prohibits teams from taking a player off another team’s practice squad just to turn around and put the player on their own practice squad.

Following Preseason Week 1, here are a few observations and predictions concerning how Pioli & Co. may handle the cuts this season:

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

1. Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray both look like they could be solid contributors in the regular season. Putting one of these players on the practice squad could be synonymous with cutting them, as I think another team would be likely to clear a spot on their 53-man roster to take a chance on them. Inversely, I don’t see the Chiefs carrying more than 4 players in the backfield, which means they might have to do without a fulltime FB. Hillis can provide these services, if needed, and the team’s decision to crosstrain a few TEs in the role may make Shane Bannon expendable. Notice I said “expendable” rather than “relegated to the practice squad for another year”. The Steelers starting FB went down to an ACL tear during the Steelers preseason opener against the Eagles, and is likely to be out for the entire season.* The Steelers have a way of making good use of their FB on roster and may be looking to replace him for the season. Todd Haley might look no further than KC in recommending a replacement to HC Mike Tomlin, and Haley’s eyes may be on the waiver wire or KC’s practice squad (as the case may be). Now the Steelers have shown a tendency to prefer FBs that are more in the FB/TE hybrid vein, so maybe this circumstance won’t arise, but it bears keeping an eye on.

* Been there, right? Hey, maybe the injury bug followed Haley to Pittsburgh. Wouldn’t that be nice?

2. In limited punting opportunities, K/P Matt Szymanski put up numbers comparable to Colquitt’s. Additionally, Szymanski did consistently great during his opportunities on placekicking duties. While it’s likely that Colquitt will remain the Chiefs’ punter this season, and that the Chiefs won’t carry more than one kicker and one punter on the 53-man roster (other position groups are too crowded and the additional spot could be better used elsewhere), more importance has been placed on STs this year, and the future prospect of only needing to use one roster slot for a K and P is enticing (and we all know Pioli loves versatility). I expect Szymanski to get a practice squad slot and to receive a lot of focus on punting this season. If it looks like he could suitably replace Colquitt, Pioli may just let Dustin’s contract expire at the end of the season and move forward with the player that may potentially develop into a suitable K as well a few years down the line.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

3. The DL looks thicker. Just a few months ago a lot of fans were taking it for granted that players like Powe and Amon Gordon would make the roster, myself included; now, I’m not too sure. Toribio has progressed more than any of us probably anticipated and will likely remain in the Top 2 in the depth chart at NT. Gordon does have an edge on Powe, as he can handle either DE or NT duties, but even there depth at DE looks just as thick and may not accommodate Gordon. Besides Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey, the Chiefs have Allen Bailey who looks to provide the team with a better pass rush from the DL, the solidly built veteran Ropati Pitoitua, and Brandon Bair has started to make a little bit of noise on the field. Eight players for the DL seems like a little much, especially if Poe can prove his stamina before the preseason is over and be a three-down player. Powe may have a shot of making the roster, if RAC determines that Dontari can provide DE services consistently enough to go with the anticipated NT services (thereby rendering Gordon as aged and obsolete a’la Kelly Gregg). But as of right now, I expect 7 men to carry over to the 53-man roster with the last spot going to either Bair or Gordon.

4. My fourth and final prediction following Week 1 concerns the WR situation. I can reasonably see 7 WRs making it to the 53-man roster. Bowe, Baldwin, Breaston, McCluster & Wylie are almost sure to be locks with the remaining WRs duking it out for the last two slots. I think Terrence Copper’s proven effectiveness on special teams and his veteran presence might give him an edge for the sixth slot. The real battle will be over the final slot, and I think the top contenders will be Josh Bellamy, Zeke Markhausen and Junior Hemingway. Markhausen has more experience (though ever so slightly) over the other two, Bellamy has been turning heads in practice (though his play was a little lackluster against the Cards), and Pioli and the KC scouts obviously saw something they liked in Hemingway (though injuries have plagued his training thus far). Hemingway’s injuries haven’t just deterred the Chiefs from getting a good read on him, but the other NFL teams likely won’t risk a roster slot on him, plus his upside looks better than Markhausen, so Junior might be a prime candidate for the practice squad. This leaves Bellamy and Markhausen vying for the last slot. Zeke having enough experience to be a little more used to the speed of the game at the NFL level is reassuring; however, Bellamy has created buzz and may not stay around long if relegated to the practice squad. Additionally, Bellamy has a certain kind of experience that no other KC WR has: Bellamy played double duty, as needed, in college as both a WR and a CB. While ultimately going undrafted and getting signed by the Chiefs as a WR, Bellamy may have future stock in being crosstrained for defense. But for the here and now, Bellamy could earn a roster spot for his ST ability as his time playing D in college likely means that his tackling technique is noticeably more refined than his competitions’ at WR in KC. I expect Bellamy to continue to work hard in practice and to earn a spot on this year’s roster.

So there’s my take following Preseason Week 1. What’s your take, Addicts? Sound off…

Are the 2012 K.C.Chiefs better than the 2011 edition? The Chiefs offseason has been stellar in many ways but, you may be surprised that they didn’t improve at certain positions!

Here’s a position by position analysis.

The Defense

Defensive Ends
Tyson Jackson is said to be bigger and stronger coming into camp. He’s also getting ready to go into a contract year. On the other side Glenn Dorsey is in a contract year and if he wants to see big money offered in the off season by either the Chiefs or in Free Agency, he ‘dbetter play lights out too. ProFootballFocus says they were tops in stopping run last year. They’ll be better than last year as they enter their prime. Back-up 6-8, 315 Ropati Pitoitua is an experienced DE and will help give Dorsey and TJ an occasional rest — and they’ll be better for it. The defensive end position will be improved!

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A favorite pastime for Chiefs fans this offseason has been debating whether or not a Matt Cassel-led Kansas City Chiefs can achieve Super Bowl glory. Abounding arguments eventually degenerate to: you need an elite QB to win a SB, and Matt Cassel is not an elite QB.

Some of the more brazen fans would allude to the possibility that Matt Cassel still might become elite. While there still may be time for him to develop, and it’ll be interesting to see how Tom House’s work with Cassel on his throwing mechanics will translate to the field on game day, the odds of eliteness aren’t too good. However, with all the changes we hope to see, we should be looking at a Top 20 passing offense at the least.

“Big whoop,” I imagine you saying. “In what world does a team with a QB lucky to break the Top 20 have a real chance at a Super Bowl title? Sure, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson did it. But two teams in the past 12 years are not the kind of odds to hang your hopes on.”

Methinks you doth protest too much.

I’m not gonna rehash the little factoids such as Rex Grossman getting the Bears to the SB in the 2006 season. Or that just this past season we were poor special teams play away from witnessing two non-elite QBs in the big game. Though go-to favorites, we’re all Addicts here, and those arguments are old hat.

But what if I told you that the ’00 Ravens and ’02 Bucs weren’t the only teams to win a SB in the past dozen years without elite QB-play? That three other teams made it happen in a way our very own Chiefs could well duplicate this year? I present to you the ’01 Patriots, the ’05 Steelers and ’07 Giants.

“Wait just a minute, slappy; Brady, Roethlisberger and Eli Manning are all counted among the elite.” Yeah they are… now. But let’s take off the rose-tinted glasses and go back in time to the years these QBs got their first SB rings… And it’s not nice to call me “slappy”…

The date is Feb. 3, 2002: Rams vs. Patriots. After Drew Bledsoe suffered a serious injury in Week 2 of the season, the Patriots had been left to play a sixth-round pick out of Michigan that only just entered his second year as an NFL pro. He hasn’t done too bad over the season, but, still, the Patriots finished off the season ranking only 22^nd in passing. By comparison, they ranked 13^th in rushing, and their defense 6^th in points allowed. Brady has only posted 2,843 passing yards on the season (a career low in seasons he saw significant playing time), 18 TDs (another career low), and a 2.9 percent INT rate (a career high). Further, the Patriots barely made it through the playoffs, and were fortunate that their divisional round game against the Raiders was officiated by a team of refs that were aware of an obscure rule that kept what could’ve been a fumble merely an incomplete pass, opening up an opportunity for K Adam Vinatieri to make an insanely long kick in terrible weather conditions… the kind of kick Hollywood would glorify, but moviegoers would think to be too highly unlikely, if not impossible, to happen in real life. Following up on that near loss, the Patriots met trouble in the AFC Championship game against the Steelers. Brady went down to injury and Bledsoe came back in and was able to save the day.

So it was a rough road, but the Patriots were able to make it into the Super Bowl. Let’s see how Brady did: completing 16 out of 27 passes (a 59.25% completion rate), Brady had 145 yards passing on the day and one TD (an eight-yd pass to David Patten). Not quite yet the showing of an elite QB. So where did the win come from if not on the back of the QB? I see they rushed for a combined 133 yards, almost matching their passing production (not too shabby). Still, the Pats total combined offense didn’t surpass Kurt Warner’s passing offense (365 yards), and chipping in 92 yards rushing for the Rams just adds to the lopsidedness. Guess the Pats’ defense is owed a lot of credit considering all that production didn’t result in more points. Okay, and Ty Law had a 47-yd INT return for a TD. That would definitely help. And Vinatieri shows up again with 37-yd and 48-yd FGs; the 48-yarder getting the win. Guess we know who’s getting the MVP… Wait! It was Brady?!?! I guess giving the K his due would offend your QBs delicate sensibilities. But what about Ty Law, or someone else on D that shut down the Rams when it was needed the most? “What’s that? Defensive players get the SB MVP with the same frequency they win the Heisman, and Ray Lewis just got MVP in the previous SB?” Okay. Let the history book insinuate that Brady was better than he was that early on; in the meantime, sports photographers will make a killing selling Vinatieri pictures and prints to the New England fans that knew better.

Moving on, let’s examine Roethlisberger and the 2005 Steelers. You know what? This one’s easy. The Steelers finished the season ranked 24^th in passing offense, 5^th in rushing offense and 3^rd in Defensive Points Allowed. They had as many TDs rushing as they did passing (21) and four of those passing TDs weren’t even thrown by Roethlisberger. Big Ben had 2,385 passing yards on the season, and had a pathetic showing in the SB, posting a Passer Rating of 22.6. Seriously. Ben completed 9 of 21 passes for 123 yds in the SB, and 2 INTS. The only Pittsburgh TD reception came on a WR pass from Antwaan Randle-El to Hines Ward. If the 2002 Bucs are proof that a team can win it all with a disgustingly high scoring defense, the 2005 Steelers are proof perfect that a team with a shutdown defense and a top notch running game can win it all.

The 2007 Giants are perhaps the toughest to defend. Eli finished the season with 3,336 passing yards (right around Cassel’s top end). While he did post 23 TD receptions on the year, he led the league in INTs with 20… by no means a good ratio, let alone an “elite” QBs ratio. He also completed only 57.7 percent of his passes (Cassel’s career average is 59 percent). All in all, the Giants passing offense on the season was ranked 21^st, their defense 17^th in points allowed (though 7^th in yards allowed), and 4^th overall in rushing offense with their RBs contributing 15 TDs on the season. So their defense was about average, their running game well above average, and their passing game considerably below average.

What makes a tough point to argue is that Eli put in a significantly better SB performance than either Brady or Ben in their first go-rounds (especially Ben… 22.6 Passer Rating?!?! C’mon!) Eli completed 19 of 34 passes (a 55.9% completion rate) for 255 yds, two TDs and one INT. What shouldn’t be overlooked is the fact that the Patriots were having a perfect season, losing no games and averaging just shy of 37 points per game and despite this, the Giants’ defense really stepped it up and held the Pats to 14 points (including overcoming a near successful game winning drive in the final minute of play).

It should also be remembered that the Giants’ final drive was kept alive by David Tyree knowing enough to break his route and give Eli a target down-field before getting sacked… and also making a miraculous helmet catch that may well define the term “circus catch”. While Eli deserves some credit for staying on his feet; Tyree deserves the bulk of the credit for his situational awareness and making such an unlikely catch.

So, there you have it: three more teams and three more SBs, where the quality of QB play was much less elite and much more Cassel-esque. And while these players may be elite now, their production and circumstances indicate that in these years their teams won, not on the strength of their QB, but on the strength of the team as a whole. Be it a strong defense keeping the score low, a running game that pounded the ball and controlled the clock, or particularly good special teams play, these teams persevered and earned the coveted title.

Overall, our beloved Chiefs have the makings of such a team. Our defense is primed to crack the Top 10, if not the Top five. If Charles and Hillis return to some semblance of their 2010 form, the Chiefs are pretty much guaranteed a Top 5 run game, if not No. 1. And the increased talent and strength of our offensive line should keep the Richard Seymours of the world at bay long enough for Ryan Succop to keep us alive when we need it the most. Everyone wants a playoff win (and it has been a while), and as heartbreaking as it may be to hope for a higher goal and fall short, I see no reason why we can’t win it all this year and bring the Lombardi Trophy to where it would look best: Kansas City. Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!

Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs have announced that they have signed free agent offensive lineman Tony Ugoh.

And no, he isn’t the one in the cape.

Here is what KCChiefs.com has to say:

Ugoh (6-5, 301) has played in 40 games (28 starts) in five NFL seasons. He joins Kansas City after spending last season with the New York Giants where he appeared in three games (one start) at left tackle. Prior to his stint with the Giants, Ugoh spent a portion of 2010 with the Detroit Lions and his first three NFL campaigns with the Indianapolis Colts (2007-09). He originally entered the NFL as a second-round draft choice (42nd overall) of the Colts in 2007.

The Houston, Texas, native earned All-America honors at the University of Arkansas where he also participated in track and field. He prepped at Westfield High School in Houston.

Ugoh ideed.

I was hoping that the first player signing we heard about today was Dontario Poe and that the second would be Dwayne Bowe.

Instead we get a journeyman lineman. Don’t be fooled by that bit about him starting, either. A player can start and only play one snap so long as that snap is the first snap. Ugoh played a grand total of 35 snaps last year for the G-Men. Though he did play two snaps in the Super Bowl. Good for him.

This is likely a camp signing.

Meanwhile, we’re still “Waiting For Go-Bowe/Poe.”

See what I did there?

“The only reason for time is so that everything doesn’t happen at once.”

- Albert Einstein

The scheduling rules in the NFL demand that each division team plays similar opponents each year. On paper at least, there is no advantage offered by the schedule.

But one consistent theme throughout Crown Noise has been how, in the NFL, the intangibles – things like leadership, chain of command and character – are the difference makers between champions and everyone else. Another big intangible is timing. And time may not be on our side for the 2012 season.

Our home opener is against the Atlanta Falcons. Now no team wants to be away for someone else’s home opener, when the fans and players are as pumped up as can be. But with KC-favorite Tony Gonzalez coming back to town, the Falcons will get a slightly warmer reception than say the Chargers did in 2010.

The real timing issues come in the last part of the season however. We get the Browns in week 14, after Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson have had a chance to really gel. As a comparison, the Browns play the Chargers in Week 8 and the Raiders in Week 14. Only the Broncos come after us, at Week 16.

With the Indianapolis Colts, it’s even worse. Andrew Luck gets 15 weeks to prepare before we face him in Week 16. Luck is going to be a great quarterback – I would have much preferred we get him in the first few weeks of the season (the Colts do not play any of the other AFC West teams this year).

But the timing conundrum is most severe when looking at the Peyton Manning-led Broncos. Oakland sees Manning in Week 4, when the entire Broncos team will still be learning to adjust to Manning’s cadence, line of scrimmage changes and sharper passes. The Raiders then see Manning again in Week 14. The Chargers get Manning in Weeks 6 and 11.

But the Chiefs don’t play our two games against Manning until Weeks 12 and 17, leaving Manning and his teammates plenty of time to work out their new kinks.

These are tough breaks, time-wise, for our Chiefs. How do we adjust, so that we can use the intangible of time to our best advantage?

One way is to have our scouting team, coaches and players pour over game tape even more vigilantly during the heart of the season. For these late season games where timing is working against us, we can turn the tables on time by conducting more research on these teams than they conduct on us, to try to put time to our advantage. Perhaps we identify tells of Andrew Luck or his lineman, after 15 weeks of studying every detail of their play. Perhaps we see Manning’s young receivers’ weaknesses or Manning’s play-calling tendencies just a bit more clearly.

Another way to make time our friend in these late season games is conditioning. The Chiefs of late have been one of the best-conditioned teams around. With our smash-mouth running game and relentless linebackers, we must be in better shape than each of our late season opponents are, in order to put time on our side.

And lastly, Daboll and Crennel can save their new schemes, trick plays and unusual formations for later in the season, once scouting teams get used to a certain amount of predictability out of the Chiefs.

The differences between winning and losing are so small in the NFL. Addicts, do you think the Chiefs can turn a timing weakness into a timing strength?!!