Protection.

There. I’ve condensed the whole season to one word. One thought. One critical concept and if the Chiefs can not protect, their season is over before it starts.

Protection.

There’s some good news involved here: the Chiefs “should” be in the top third of the league in that department.

How does that figure? Consider the potential starters… and the depth… especially now that the Chiefs brass have recanted with, “We’re so sorry, Uncle Albert.”

Before we delve into the positive news about the Chiefs offensive line let’s take a look at other aspects of the Chiefs team units to determine if there is indeed anything to worry about more than the offensive line.

The first position that comes to mind is the middle linebacker position. Now, the Chiefs have brought in the underwhelming Akeem Jordan from Philadelphia. Next, the Chiefs drafted Alabama strong man Nico Johnson who I would label more as a project than a finished product. If there is another position on the team that needs to be worried about it’s the ILB right? I don’t think so.

A strength of the Chiefs’ defense should be its pass protection including pressuring the quarterback. Most will agree. For most teams the Chiefs meet, they should be able to play a pass-oriented offense and take the pass away on defense. Not that the Chiefs will be able to shut most teams’ passing attacks down, but teams should have less success passing against the Chiefs than they did in the past year, forcing them to go to their running game earlier because they won’t be playing from ahead like they did last year in the Chiefs’ turnover-plagued season.

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LM: Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the Chiefs selecting Nico Johnson with the  99^th pick in the draft is… all the good players they passed up to take him instead.

The first one that comes to mind is Safety Shamarko Thomas taken 12 picks later by the Pittsburgh Steelers. In Pittsburgh they are hailing Thomas as the next Troy P. He was a three year starter and actually started more games in his junior and a senior seasons (23) than Nico Johnson started in his four years at Alabama (20). Thomas had two interceptions as a senior with 3 forced fumbles and 85 tackles (that’s 6.5 tackles per game if you’re keeping score). His 4.38 40 and ball hawking skills should make any fan think twice.

Other prospects the Chiefs passed on to take Nico Johnson include: Khaseem Greene, Jordan Poyer, DT Jesse Williams (Alabama), Barrett Jones (Alabama), C Brain Schwenke, or Oday Oboushi.

Quinton Patton is a 4.4 40 wideout who was taken 29 picks later by the San Francisco 49ers and was rated the 58^th best prospect in this draft by NFLDraftScout and CBS Sports. When fans ask me where I get off making “my” evaluations more important than the Chiefs leadership I say I don’t have to… I can use highly successful teams as good examples. I think the 49ers and the Steelers qualify.

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In the hours before the 2013 NFL Draft word began to circulate that the Kansas City Chiefs would select Central Michigan’s left tackle Eric Fisher with the first pick in the draft. Once Fisher was selected it was believed to be just a matter of time before KC traded their current left tackle Branden Albert to the Miami Dolphins. After all, a team doesn’t need two left tackles. Albert was already on record as saying he didn’t want to switch positions and a team would be foolish to spend the first overall pick on a position of minimal importance like right tackle.

At least that’s what traditional NFL wisdom has said.

The reasoning for this is pretty simple. The long held belief is that you need an athletic pass protector at left tackle to protect the quarterback’s blind side but the right tackle doesn’t need to be as good of a pass protector and it is often more advantageous for him to be more of a run blocker. Therefore, sticking a great pass protecting left tackle over on the right side would be a waste of his abilities. It would be like putting a great running back at fullback where he spends most of his time lead blocking while his true talent goes wasted. A team would be much better served drafting a different position at first overall and picking up a less talented tackle later in the draft that would adequately fill the less important position of right tackle.

If that last paragraph is true for today’s NFL then the Kansas City Chiefs made a huge mistake in taking Eric Fisher first overall. Either that or they should have traded away Branden Albert at any cost. However, I think even the most “old school” of NFL fans have to admit that this traditional view of the right tackle position is probably at the very least in need of some updating.

This past week I read two fantastic pieces on this subject. The first is Examining Pressure: Are Left Tackles Overvalued? by Steve Palazzolo at Pro Football Focus. If you have ANY interest in this subject whatsoever you MUST stop reading this post right now and go read it. It is well worth the time.

The second was Evolution And The NFL from the blog NFL Philosophy. This blog is by a twitter user that goes by the handle @NFLosophy. He is a former NFL front office employee who posts on all things NFL. He’s a very insightful follow and I highly recommend looking him up on Twitter and definitely recommend reading the linked piece from his blog.

If anyone is concerned with the thought of the Chiefs playing Eric Fisher at right tackle this season or beyond go read those two pieces. I don’t know how you could read them and continue to have the same outdated beliefs about the right tackle position.

Here are a few highlights.

Both articles touch on the history of why we view the tackle positions the way we do. They both mention the game changing impact of Lawrence Taylor. His ability to impact the game by getting to the QB made every team want to find a player to do the same for them. These outside pass rushers lined up on the right side of the defense against the left tackle because they wanted the advantage of the QB not being able to see them coming, hence the “blind side”.

This became common NFL practice and to counteract it teams started looking for athletic pass blockers to play at LT to stop or at least contain these outside edge rushers. Thus was born the stereotyped roles of the tackle positions that some are still clinging to today. It doesn’t take a hard core football expert to watch football and see that QB pressure is no longer just coming from the QB’s blind side. Defensive coordinators are now sending blitzes from everywhere. Plus, as teams use less of the fullback position and split their TEs out like WRs more and more the right tackle no longer has the blocking “safe guards” that were often there 10 years ago. The right tackle is often “on an island” against a quality pass rusher just like the left tackle. The Pro Football Focus article does a great job of proving just how out of date those old tackle roles are in today’s NFL with statistical evidence.

According to their research, over the past five seasons 45.6% of their top rated pass rushers have predominantly rushed from the left side (meaning they line up against the right tackle). The number of quality pass rushers is creeping closer and closer to 50/50 on which side of the ball they line up on. In fact, last season 16 of the top 25 rated pass rushers were guys who lined up against the RT. Palazzolo notes:

2012 saw a big jump in production from left side pass rushers and not coincidentally, we saw 16 of the Top 21 pass protectors residing at left tackle. This brings us to our original question: are the best pass rushers really moving to the left side or are the right tackles simply getting exposed? The answer, of course, is “yes.”

Chiefs fans know all to well about RTs getting exposed having watched guys like Chris Terry and Barry Richardson get manhandled in the not too distant past.

However, the undervaluing of the right tackle position does not just stop there. Palazzolo goes on to illustrate that pressure coming from the QBs right is actually more disruptive. Over the past five seasons the PFF QB grades for QBs facing pressure from around the left tackle is -80.2 while the grade for QBs facing pressure from the right tackle is -130.6. This does actually make sense. If a QB sees the pressure coming he is more likely to force a throw to avoid the hit which will lead to more mistakes and a worse grade. What is surprising is that despite coming from the “blind side” pressure from the LT hasn’t lead to many more sacks. In the five year study 17.2% of the pressures coming from against the LT lead to sacks while 16.4% of those from against the RT did. So only 0.8% more pressures from the QBs blind side lead to sacks.

So since the difference in sacks allowed by pressures from the two sides is less drastic than the negative effect on the QBs passing shown from the grades listed above an argument can be made that in today’s NFL the right tackle position is having a greater negative effect on QB play than the left tackle position. This is how Palazzolo concludes his piece:

The right tackle should no longer be viewed as the athletic inferior to the left tackle and teams should change their team-building strategy to make this happen. Today’s passing NFL makes it a necessity to have two competent pass protectors on the edge and when scouting players, if a tackle is deemed to not be good enough to play left tackle, well you’re better off just putting him at guard rather than exploiting him at right tackle. There’s no hiding — defensive coordinators will find him.

The piece by NFLosophy has come to the same conclusion and specifically addresses how some teams are now evolving:

In the past, right tackles were considered more run blockers than pass blockers and were drafted as such. Defenses saw the weakness and are taking advantage of how slowly offenses are evolving to this tactic. Evolution is always playing catch up. However, this week we saw a couple of examples of teams realizing that the left tackle position has now become over emphasized. The best example is that the Jaguars decided that drafting Joeckel and playing him at right tackle was just as beneficial as playing him at left tackle. They realized that the gap between the importance of the left tackle and right tackle position isn’t as great as the general opinion would have us believe. They’re evolving faster than everyone else.

Now before any Chiefs fans get bent out of shape that the author gives kudos to the Jags for playing the #2 overall pick at RT instead of the Chiefs for using the #1 overall pick to do the same, keep in mind that KC was actively shopping Albert up until about a week ago. That implies that their drafting of Fisher wasn’t done with the sole purpose of playing him at RT like the Jags did with Joeckel. However, the fact that John Dorsey wasn’t willing to take less than top dollar in return for Albert shows that he does see enough benefit in having a great player at RT to stick to his guns. Someone with the outdated view of the RT position would have traded Albert away for pennies on the dollar so that he didn’t “waste” his top draft pick by playing him at the RT spot.

I don’t know if the Chiefs will sign Albert to a long term contract or not. I don’t know if Eric Fisher is still the long term answer at LT for this team or not. I do feel good about the situation now because I believe that if they don’t sign Albert to a long term deal it will be because they don’t think he’s worth the money he’s demanding not because they don’t value the RT position enough to play Fisher there. I just hope that if the Chiefs do sign Albert to a long term deal most KC fans will be smart enough not to flood blogs and message boards with comments like “Great, that means we wasted the #1 pick on a RT!”

That kind of thinking is obsolete in today’s NFL.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Growing up as a kid in the 60s, outside of L.A., I had many an opportunity as a teenager to go to the In & Out Hamburger stand. In & Out, it was the supreme being of hamburgers and now Andy Reid and John Dorsey might as well change the name of the K.C. franchise to the In & Out Chiefs.

Has there ever been a busier time in Kansas City Chiefs history than the past 4 months and 4 days… since Andy Reid was hired as the Head Coach?

If you’re a Kansas City Chiefs fan then you’ve got an opinion about the moves they’ve made. Some you may like, others, not so much. One way or the other, fans need to see that these Chiefs are making one thing clear: change is gonna come <– If you like Otis Redding and you really want to go old school, right-click on the link and get that wax track spinnin’, slip into your comfy bath robe and grab a cask of your favorite libation then sit back to really absorb the rest of this “piece.” Of course, you might want to re-think that if you’re still at work.

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If you’re a Chiefs fan… and it’s likely that you are if you’re reading this column… and you’ve also had the opportunity to visit one of our great country’s Southwestern states where they serve In & Out burgers… then you probably don’t mind Kansas City being called the In & Out Chiefs. However, there’s a good reason for it. Look at all the Chiefs who’ve been ushered out and who they’ve also brought in during this period of time:

 OUT:

Kevin Boss, Steve Breaston, Glenn Dorsey, Eric Winston, Ryan Lilja (retired but also rumored to return), Javier Arenas, Matt Cassel, Andy Studebaker, Patrick DiMarco, Steve Maneri, Corey Greenwood, David Mims (stolen from practice squad by Ravens), Alex Tanney, Ropati Pitoitua, Brady Quinn, and Peyton Hillis.

IN:

Alex Smith, Eric Fisher, Anthony Fasano, Geoff Schwartz, Mike DeVito, Donnie Avery, Sean Smith, Dunta Robinson,  Akeem Jordan, Chase Daniels, Travis Kelce, Knile Davis, Nico Johnson, Sanders Commings, Eric Kush, Braden Wilson, Mike Catapano, Husain Abdullah, Marcus Dixon, Mardy Gilyard, Chad Kilgore, Ryan D’Imperio. You should also include all the UFAs: Tyler Bray, Darin Drakeford, Otha Foster, Frankie Hammond, Demetrius Harris, A.J. Hawkins, Colin Kelly, Rob Lohr, and Brad Madison.

The lists above may not spell out the magnitude of the metamorphosis… but, it may be better understood though graphics, like the three below.

I’m going to miss little Stevie “Poet-Laurette” Breaston. It’s going to be tough around here without Glenn Dorsey underachieving — who are we going to kick around? Mr. Winston’s sage wisdom’s will be missed as well. Here’s hoping some team finally gives that gypsy a home.

.Javier, you will be missed when we play the Broncos. Good luck in the desert. Matt, please wipe that look off your face — yea, the one that says, “I never really knew what I was doing here.” To you, Andy Studebaker… thank you… it’s always good to have a cheery teammate warming the bench. Mr. Maneri, you go boy!… and if your new position with dah Bears doesn’t work out, maybe you can get a part as a plunderer in Johnny Depp’s next pirate movie. You got the chops my man.

Please note: these players do not include the following UFAs, that have been added IN: Josh Martin, Brad McDougald, Rico Richardson and Ridge Wilson. The lists  above are not exhaustive of all the changes made this off season but, clearly show a prodigious pattern of planned permutation.

While some of the player moves were not  the doing of Reid and Dorsey it is striking when you go down the list of all the players who have been on the way out, especially when you look at them as: starter, starter, starter, starter, back-up, starter, starter, back-up, back-up, back-up, back-up, back-up, starter, starter and starter. Nine player who were starters for some part of the season and now they’re gone.

That’s a lot of… transmutation… in a very short period of time.

Nathan Bramwell wrote a piece called “Looking at the Chiefs in Free Agency So Far”  on March 16th and said,

For Dorsey to go out and get all these guys, you have to believe he either thinks the roster was in need of a jump start or the team is close to competing for a playoff spot now.

Many Kansas City Chiefs  fans and bloggers could be heard early in the off season saying the Chiefs were not as bad as their 2-14 record would indicate. However, no other team in the NFL has had the rate of changeover the Chiefs have had so, the alterations could be argued to be needed changes. There’s a bit of truth in both views.

From time to time, as a writer, when I’m working on a blog, something happens that strikes me and in this case it was about the difference between the  players coming in and the players going out. That difference in the newbies could be the… intensity of their demeanor. When rosters are reseated, you of course hope the new guys coming in are more talented but, it’s also a good sign if there is change in attitude too. The players being brought in appear to be, at least to some degree, more sharply focused… or this may be better typified by saying… no more Mr. Nice Guys at One Arrowhead Way.

Doesn’t that give you a warm, fuzzy feeling deep down underneath the chest pocket of your fire-engine red Chiefs pajamas?

So, the In-N-Out off season is in full bloom.  Of course the above lists don’t include a tabulation of the coaches and administrators who have made the transition.

The change has not been restricted to the player’s roster alone. The Chiefs also signed a scout recently: Brett Veach, who handled scouting for the Southeastern region of the country, making pilgrimage from Philadelphia’s freedom city to our glorious mid-west fountain town of hope and light.

More Importantly, a new Director of Scouting has been added: Chicago Bears director of pro scouting Chris Ballard has left the team to take a job with the Chiefs and will oversee their pro and college scouting departments while reporting directly to John Dorsey.

It’s been an In & Out off season and could be seen as a pigskin-administrator-spectators-performance-artistis’ dream come true. Well, that just me. However, if you like change… you’re probably in-love with this off season. If not… you might want to keep up with the Royals til September.

Now… I just wish they had an In & Out Burger in Kansas City… but, I guess we’ll have to settle for the Chiefs version… which means… Arrowhead tailgating, which is of course, unsurpassable.

Go Chiefs!

What do you think of your “new” Chiefs Addicts? Ready for more IN-N-OUT? Or have you had enough?

As the dust settled on the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2013 NFL Draft there was a variety of opinions. Some fans loved it. Some fans hated it. Some fans had mixed reviews. However, there was one pick that seemed to have more questions and complaints than any other. That was the selection of Arkansas running back Knile Davis with their late third round pick. By now, most KC fans know the essentials about Davis. He was an explosive playmaker and productive running back against tough SEC defenses in 2010. Then he missed the entire 2011 season with an ankle injury. Finally, last season he (along with the entire Arkansas offense) struggled. Davis particularly struggled with fumbles last season. Davis’s fans list his size (227 lbs), strength (31 bench press reps), speed (4.37 forty yard dash), and production against the best defenses in college football in 2010 as reasons to have high hopes for Davis. His detractors point to his history of injuries and fumbles as reasons that KC shouldn’t have gambled on Davis when so many other highly regarded prospects were still on the board.

Before I made up my own mind I wanted to do some research because I didn’t really know much about Davis except for what I had read online from so called draft “experts”. So I set out to watch all the footage on Davis that I could find. After viewing it and making some observations I decided that I would put my findings together in a video for you. So I’ll just let the video take it from here.

Here’s my latest Armchair Addict Video Production, “Knile Davis: KC’s Newest Weapon”.

So what do you think Addicts? Will Davis realize his upside or will his fumbles and injuries get the best of him? I can’t wait to hear your thoughts in the comments.

They say you can’t properly evaluate a draft class until three or four year have passed. However, we may be able to hold the current regime to their own standard.

What standard?  TO MAKE THE CHIEFS BETTER.

By considering this aristocratic goal and evaluating the Chiefs efficacy in the 2013 NFL draft, there’s an eerie Scott Pioli-type-feeling that ascends.

I recall being connected to the TV and the PC as if I was connected to an I-V… four short off seasons ago on draft day and hoping for the best. Devoid of a second round pick… expectations for the “other” handful of Chiefs’ selections was, to say the very least, intensifying.

Unlike four years ago, the first pick in this draft was seen as a huge success. Score one for Reid and Dorsey (with a backwards assist from Scott Pioli for leading the Chiefs to the worst record in the league thereby granting this regime the first overall pick).

The rest of the draft feels like a deja-vu-vian recapitulation all over again all over again. The problem with touting this point of view is that it doesn’t tell the whole story.

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Last season the Chiefs had six Pro Bowl players and went 2-14. They had six Pro Bowl players and never even held a lead for a second of their first eight games.

Two seasons ago they won the division and went to the playoffs but still got punched in the mouth in their final two games including an embarrassing blowout loss to the Ravens at Arrowhead in the playoffs.

The Chiefs have shown glimpses of being a good team but had major flaws: bad quarterback play, bad coaching, and perhaps worst of all, they were “soft”.

The Chiefs had addressed the coaching and quarterback problems prior to the draft. Andy Reid may not be perfect, but his track record compared to Romeo Crennel is off the charts. The Chiefs may not have an elite QB but Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, and Tyler Bray are definitely a step up from Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn, and Ricky Stanzi.

So coaching and QB play are going to be better this season, but you don’t go 2-14 and go without having a single lead for half the season strictly because of the coach and QB. Good teams, playoff teams, Super Bowl caliber teams have players that refuse to back down, refuse to quit, that punch back when they get hit in the mouth. They don’t ever quit. They don’t ever lay down.

That’s what has been SO hard for me to stomach as a KC fan the past few years. There have been times where I watched my team get punched in the mouth and they just laid down and took it. They had no answer. They had no fight. They were the scrawny kid on the playground getting pushed around by the big bad bully. I can take losing a game where both teams duked it out and the other team just made a few more plays. It’s disappointing, but there’s no shame in that. But when I went to the 2011 season opener and saw my team get curb stomped 41-7 IN ARROWHEAD by a bad Bills team, that was embarrassing. When I sat in the nosebleed seats and watched a REALLY bad Raiders team walk into Arrowhead last season and physically dominate KC on both sides of the ball I literally felt sick to my stomach, because it looked like the players had given up.

That’s why I love this draft class. That’s why every time I saw someone on twitter saying we should have drafted (insert name of flashy big name player here) instead of the guys like Travis Kelce, Nico Johnson, and Mike Catapano I shook my head. We have flashy players. We have Jamaal Charles. We just haven’t had enough power up front to always open up holes when the game was on the line. We have Tamba Hali and Justin Houston who can sack the quarterback. We just haven’t had the guys to stuff the run on first and second down to consistently force QBs into third and long situations. We have a shut down CB in Brandon Flowers. We just haven’t had an answer for TEs running wide open underneath.

We have the flash. We’ve lacked the guys willing to do the dirty work. We’ve been missing the guys with the guts, the heart, and the fight to make sure the “pretty boys” get on Sports Center.

I heard Eric Fisher’s coach from Central Michigan call him super competitive and “nasty”. That doesn’t sound like someone that will just accept getting pushed around.

I watched THIS video of Travis Kelce where he says things like:
“I like to get after it.”
“I like to play physical.”
“You’ll see me playing all the way to the whistle, sometimes that gets me in trouble but (smirks) I’ll leave it at that.”
You can’t watch that video and tell me this guy is going to be okay with a team coming into his home stadium and embarrassing him.

I hear people HATING on Knile Davis like he was the worst pick in the history of the NFL draft. The man is 230 lbs and runs a 4.3 forty! If they can fix his fumbling problems he can team with Charles to just wear defenses out. And those of you that are actually using Shaun Draughn as a reason that we didn’t need to draft a RB need to just stop. Seriously, stop it. You’re embarrassing yourself.

Another group of fans that dumbfound me are the ones that whined and moaned about the Kelce and Davis picks because of “this huge hole” at ILB, then complain that we reached for Nico Johnson. You know why Derrick Johnson has been able to rack up so many tackles the last couple of seasons? Because Jovan Belcher was constantly taking on blockers to free him up to get to the ball. You know who is possibly the best ILB in this draft at taking on blockers? NICO JOHNSON. You know who can help KC make stops on first and second down so that we can use Hali and Houston to rush on third and long? NICO JOHNSON. Will he have to come off the field on passing downs? Yes, but teams need a guy to stuff the run when the time comes. The Chiefs now have that guy on the roster.

What’s that you say? You’re upset with the Johnson pick because KC needs someone that can cover TEs. I’m glad you brought that up, that leads me to….

Sanders Commings. Commings is big and strong enough to play safety. He also has 4.4 speed. That means they can use him in a variety of ways. They can have him cover WRs or TEs. He can play in run support or drop back and play center field (literally, he was drafted to play center field in MLB). He’s part of the solution to some of KC’s recent problems that they have simply lacked answers for.

Eric Kush is a blue collar, underrated, small school center who can help push Rodney Hudson and provide depth in case Hudson has any more injuries.

Andy Reid called FB Braden Wilson the best blocking FB in this draft. That’s a guy that can help JC (and Davis) get the hard yards when the game is on the line. A guy that can turn 3rd and goal on the one yard line into a TD instead of a FG. He’ll do the dirty work.

Then there’s Mike Catapano. A favorite of mine. HERE‘s a video of him doing MMA training in the offseason (look at the guns). The NFLDraftScout scouting report says:

Well-built with very good muscle definition and plays as strong as he looks, manhandling blockers and tossing them with ease. Plays fast at all times with a motor that never quits. Makes up for lack of great leverage with his hustle and effort.

NFL Draft Bible’s twitter account had my favorite observation on this guy:

Sometimes its good to have a guy on defense who is just crazy. Hear Catapano fits the bill.

These are guys that can make the Chiefs better. They may not all fill up a stat sheet. They may not be guys that get on Sports Center or are even noticed at all by casual Chiefs fans, but these guys may just be the ones to do the dirty work that has been missing around Arrowhead for far too long.

That’s why I like this draft class.

That’s why I don’t care what grade ESPN may give it.

I’m not surprised that nationally nobody is talking about it.

It’s not that kind of draft class and I’m fine with that. It doesn’t mean these guys won’t help the Chiefs win. These may be just the kind of guys that have been missing in KC the last few years.

So fine, you want me to “grade” this draft class before any of them play a snap.

I’ll happily give it a “D” for dirty.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

It happened five years ago. The Chiefs traded up into the first round and selected DT Glenn Dorsey at #5 and then took LT Branden Albert 10 picks later at #15.

Now, you can almost taste the double… and it could happen again tomorrow.

In last year’s NFL draft, 50% of the picks were “maneuvered for” in the first round. So, there’s no reason this year to expect a first round that is anything less than “shaken,” not stirred.

The Chiefs could end up with pick number 42… or 54… from the Miami Dolphins in exchange for LT Branden Albert. Some have suggested that the Dolphins will wait until the big three LTs, Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson, are off the board just to make sure one of them doesn’t fall to them first… when they pick at #12… then they’ll pull the trigger on the trade for Albert. The question is, will the Chiefs end up with pick #42 or #54?

Using the Draft Value Exchange Chart… if it’s pick 54, then the Chiefs could “package” pick 63 (276 points), their own first pick of the 3rd round, plus pick 54 (360 points) and they could reasonably expect to move up into the back end of the first round.

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“Get outta town by sundown.” He got the message loud and clear. Then he stared across the table and growled, “I ain’t goin’ nowhere til somebody pays up!”

Yep, it’s an old story and he might as well have been sitting in a dusty, turn of the century, saloon in Dodge City.

The big question now is: what’s next for the Chiefs and Branden Albert?

No one wants Albert’s current franchise player contract, especially the Miami Dolphins who have already made Albert “an offer he could refuse.” But there are other players at this table. The Arizona Cardinals.

Some, who are standing on the outside looking in, have stated that Albert needs to lower his asking price, that he’s not worthy of what he believes should be his going rate. The presence of the Cardinals may change all of that.

That’s all fine and good but, until either the dam breaks, or Albert pulls his finger out of the dyke, the onus is on the Chiefs to do something else with their cap situation to make room for the players they’re about to draft into the fold.

 So, what are those options?

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Finally the week of the NFL Draft has arrived. By this point you’ve probably read countless speculations and mock drafts in hopes of trying to figure out who the Chiefs might select. Well now it’s your turn. You might not have done enough research to know what prospects might be available in what rounds in order to make your own guesses, but never fear, for the second year in a row I’ve done the leg work for you. I’ve compiled a multiple choice Chiefs mock draft for you to complete. Using as many credible big boards as I could find (putting the most stock in NFLDraftScout and our own Merlin’s Drafttek) I came up with several prospects that most believe should be available when the Chiefs draft. There are two ways you could go about completing this mock, you could pick who YOU would select if you were in charge or you could pick who you think the CHIEFS will select. Either way, list your picks in the comments below and let’s see just who most KC fans have the Chiefs taking. Twice in this draft the Chiefs have selections so close together that I just gave you extra choices and you get to pick two of them.

Here we go!

Round 1, Pick #1 Overall

A. Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M
B. Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan
C. Dion Jordan – OLB – Oregon
D. Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama
E. Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia

Round 2, Pick #42 Overall

A. The Chiefs Won’t Trade Branden Albert
B. Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee
C. Larry Warford – OG – Kentucky
D. Jordan Poyer – CB – Oregon State
E. Margus Hunt – DE – SMU
F. Matt Elam – S – Florida

Round 3, Pick #63 Overall

A. Tyler Wilson – QB – Arkansas
B. Terrance Williams – WR – Baylor
C. Barrett Jones – G/C – Alabama
D. John Jenkins – DT – Georgia
E. Vance McDonald – TE – Rice

Round 3/4, Picks #96 & 99 Overall (Pick 2)

A. Christine Michael – RB – Texas A&M
B. Stedman Bailey – WR – West Virginia
C. Zac Dysert – QB – Miami (OH)
D. Kiko Alonso – LB – Oregon
E. Montori Hughes – DL – Tennessee-Martin
F. Leon McFadden – CB – San Diego State
G. Alvin Bailey – OG – Arkansas

Round 5, Pick #134 Overall

A. Kevin Reddick – LB – North Carolina
B. Brandon McGee – CB – Miami (FL)
C. Jordan Mills – OT – Louisiana Tech
D. Mike Gillislee – RB – Florida
E. William Gholston – DE – Michigan State

Round 6, Pick #170 Overall

A. Chris Faulk – OT – LSU
B. Dion Sims – TE – Michigan State
C. Everett Dawkins – DT – Florida State
D. Ryan Griffin – QB – Tulane
E. Jawan Jamison – RB – Rutgers

Round 6/7, Picks #204 & 207 Overall (Pick 2)

A. Ricky Wagner – OT – Wisconsin
B. Ace Sanders – WR – South Carolina
C. Sean Renfree – QB – Duke
D. Lawrence Okoye – DT – England
E. Damian Stafford – FS – Nebraska
F. Latavius Murray – RB – Central Florida
G. Micah Hyde – CB/S – Iowa

So Addicts, who do you got? I’m anxious to see your picks in the comments below. I’ll leave you with my predicted picks.

A. Luke Joeckel
B. Justin Hunter
D. John Jenkins
F. Leon McFadden & G. Alvin Bailey
A. Kevin Reddick
B. Dion Sims
C. Sean Renfree & F. Latavius Murray

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!

With the draft a mere week and a day away and the lion’s share of the Chiefs picks coming on day’s two and three, it may be a good time to look at some late round revelations.

If you’re not a kindergartener and your attention span is longer than 15 seconds then you’ve most likely noticed this regime is doing a better job scouting prospects than, well, those previous certain unmentionables.

What that means is we will be learning more about Andy Reid and John Dorsey from who, or whom, they select in the later rounds than who they choose early in the race, and that debate appears to be going on forever.

Reid and Dorsey should be able to do better than Kendrick Lewis and Ryan Succop… the four year sum total of Scott Pioli’s late round pot stickers (players who were good enough to stick on the roster and make a contribution).

 What the Chiefs need now are players who can do more than “contribute.”

 The Chiefs also need some late round pot stickers like Andy Reid was able to draft in the past five years:

• Kurt Coleman- starting Safety, 7th round, 244th pick, Philadelphia Eagles, 2010
• Jamar Chaney- starting SOLB, 7th round, 220th pick, Philadelphia Eagles, 2010
• Stanley Havili- starting FB (2012), 7th round, 240th pick, Philadelphia Eagles, 2011
• King Dunlap- OT, 7th round, 230th pick, Philadelphia Eagles, 2008- now with San Diego
• Andy Studebaker- LB, 6th round, 203th pick, Philadelphia Eagles, 2008, cut by Kansas City
• Joe Mays- LB, 6th round, 200th pick, Philadelphia Eagles, 2008, now with Denver
• Quintin Demps- S, 6th round, 184th pick, Philadelphia Eagles, 2008, now with Houston
• Mike McGlynn- G, 4th round, 109th pick, Philadelphia Eagles, 2008, now with Indianapolis

The Chiefs also need some late round pot stickers like John Dorsey was able to draft in the past five years too:

• Mike Daniels, DE, 4th round, 132nd pick, Green Bay, 2012
• Jerron McMillian, S, 4th round, 133nd pick, Green Bay, 2012
• Davon House, CB, 4th round, 131st pick, Green Bay, 2011
• Ryan Taylor, TE, 7th round, 218th pick, Green Bay, 2011
• Marshall Newhouse, starting LT, 5th round, 169th pick, Green Bay, 2010
• Morgan Burnett, starting SS, 3rd round, 71st pick, Green Bay, 2010
• Frank Zombo, LB, UDFA, Green Bay, 2010 (uh oh, if the Chiefs recently signed Zombo, who at one time went to Central Michigan, could another CMU grad be far behind?)
• T.J. Lang, starting OG, 4th round, 109th pick, Green Bay, 2009
• Brad Jones, starting ILB, 7th round, 218th pick, Green Bay, 2009

Of course there are many other players who have made a significant contributions to both Philly and the Packers, players who were drafted in the later rounds but, that’s going back ten years.

That’s precisely the point. Both Andy Reid and John Dorsey each have a decade of experience selecting quality players up and down the draft board.

So, “who” might be available in the late rounds of the 2013 NFL draft? Let’s see if we can divine the future fortunes of a few of those late round hopefuls.

Firstly, here’s the Kansas City Chiefs full, round-by-round, draft order:

Round 1 ~ Pick 1

Round 3 ~ Pick 63

Round 3 ~ Pick 96

Round 4 ~ Pick 99

Round 5 ~ Pick 134

Round 6 ~ Pick 170

Round 6 ~ Pick 204

Round 7 ~ Pick 207

While both Reid and Dorsey have held fast to the idea that they’re going to select the best player available in a draft… there is parity at the top of the draft and anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’s… when it comes to predicting who they’ll take.

In the later rounds, there’s no reason to think they won’t stick to the BPA formula. So, let’s take a look at some prospects that may be on Reid and Dorsey’s radar beginning with the late third round pick.

Round 3 ~ Pick 96

TE Gavin Escobar, San Diego State, 6-6, 254

Escobar is coming out after a solid junior year and comes in at 4.78 in the 40. He rated best in his group at the combine in 3-cone drill, and the 20 and 60 yard shuttles. Escobar is shorter in the legs and longer in the torso which gives him some shiftiness. He has good hands and rates as the 5th best TE coming out according to nfldraftscout.

At his size and strength, Escobar would be taken to serve as a pass catching tight end. He only put up 12 reps at 225 pounds and will have to develop his upper body strength if he’s going to make an impact as an every down player.

Here’s Gavin Escobar’s 2012 Highlights,

Round 4 ~ Pick 99

DT Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern, 6-1, 335

Although Williams was used all over the defensive line, much like Dontari Poe at Memphis, his size makes him best suited to play nose guard in the NFL. Williams career at Missouri Southern was outstanding,

Williams picked up his third straight AFCA All-America Team honor by finishing third in the nation in forced fumbles with five, and recorded 8.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss. Williams is (only) the third player to earn three straight AFCA Division II All-America honors.

 Williams 38 reps at 225 puts him in rare company although Poe had 44. Williams is stronger in the upper body than the lower body and he is able to push OL into the opposing backfield causing disruptions yet he’s not noted for his ability against the run. Rob Rang of CBS Sports compares Williams to Antonio Garay of the San Diego Chargers and also says his wide body, if developed further, could end up being excellent against the run.

Here’s some tape of Williams at the Senior Bowl practices. He wears #66 and what’s noticeable is his penetration on every play.

Round 5 ~ Pick 134

SS Josh Evans, Florida, 6-1, 207. Josh Evans runs a 4.5 40 but, when you watch him on the field you would think he’s faster. That’s  because he’s a smart player and anticipates well. He’d be an excellent complement to Eric Berry, who he reminds me of. Last year he had 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and 3 interceptions.

Here’s a highlight reel worth watching. Sometimes, for some reason, Evans wears #9 and other times he’s wearing #24. Have a peak:

Round 6 ~ Pick 170

OG/OT Oday Aboushi, Virginia, 6-6, 310. Aboushi is just the kind of  offensive lineman Andy Reid enjoys developing. Big, strong and agile. Gil Brandt says of Aboushi, “He’s strong, but probably will need to be moved inside to play guard in the NFL.” He’s played both left and right tackle so Aboushi is already experienced playing multiple positions. Walter Football calls Aboushi “extremely athletic.” Walter’s goes on to say,

Aboushi’s quickness and burst also allow him to be a dangerous run-blocker on the second level of defenses. He fires out of his stance and uses his agility to get in position to hit blocks beyond the line of scrimmage.

When Aboushi goes up against undersized defensive linemen or linebackers, he sustains his blocks well. The defenders struggle to get off Aboushi once he gets into their pads and he finishes his blocks well. Aboushi will punish defensive linemen or other defenders who go to the ground with some violent blocks to finish them off.

Here’s a good sample of Oday Aboushi’s skills in action against UNC:

Round 6 ~ Pick 204

OG/OT Rick Wagner, 6-6, 316. Six months ago Nolan Nawrocki gave this analysis (beginning at the 1:45 mark) of Rick Wagner, projecting him to the first round. Of course I don’t agree with many things Nawrocki espouses but, I do have a love affair with Wisconsin linemen and Wagner could now be a steal in the sixth round. Bleacher Report says, “Ricky Wagner is the type of prospect that could make quite a few NFL draft analysts look silly. He could end up being really good.” Who knows why he’s fallen this far in the past six months?

Round 7 ~ Pick 207

K Dustin Hopkins, Florida State, 6-2, 193. Hopkins has been an outstanding kicker for FSU. nfdraftscout says of hopkins,

Senior Dustin Hopkins, who became the ACC’s all-time single-season leading scorer… was a finalist for the Lou Groza Award, presented annually to the nation’s top kicker. Hopkins has been exceptional this year, converting 24 of 28 field-goal attempts and also consistently giving FSU’s defense good field position with his kickoffs.

Hopkins ended the FSU Pro Day workout by nailing a 50 yard field goal. I wouldn’t mind the Chiefs spending another 7th round pick to give Ryan “Pedestrian” Succop some real competition.

Dustin Hopkins is a big strong kid with a big strong leg. Have a look see:

What do you say Addicts? Is there anyone here that looks interesting to you?

Thankfully, the NFL draft is almost upon us. After weeks of speculation, predictions, debates, and discussions fans will finally begin to get some answers when the Chiefs go on the clock with the first overall pick in just 10 days. I’m saving my final Chiefs draft pick predictions until next week, so it was a little bit of a struggle to come up with something new regarding the Chiefs draft that one of the other writers here at AA hasn’t already covered.

I originally thought I would write about whether or not the Chiefs would draft a QB in this draft. My question was, with both Alex Smith and Chase Daniel on the roster would the Chiefs feel obligated to fill other needs instead? I started to think about what round they might be willing to look at a QB and if there would be any QBs worth drafting left at that point. So I started looking at the specific spots the Chiefs are currently picking in the first 5 rounds (Picks: 1, 63, 96, 99, and 134). Then I started looking at a couple of prospect big boards to see what kind of QBs were likely to be available at those picks. I used both Drafttek’s and NFLDraftScout’s rankings to get a feel for where prospects were valued.

This got me thinking about other positions I thought the Chiefs might be interested in drafting. At that point I decided that instead of focusing solely on the QBs I would look at the Chiefs’ first five picks and see if I can find positions of need that may have draft value at the specific spots the Chiefs are drafting. John Dorsey is on record as saying he drafts for value over need. This means he won’t reach for a player that isn’t as good just to fill a need. Obviously the best scenario is when one of the best players available lines up with one of the team’s biggest needs. That’s what I set out to find, positions of need for KC that have a shot at providing the best player available when the Chiefs are on the clock.

In order to make the cut, a position had to have multiple players ranked within several slots of the Chiefs pick. That way it wasn’t reliant on one specific player still being available. Also, for the sake of this post I’m acting as if the Chiefs don’t acquire any additional picks. If KC were to land a 2nd rounder that may change things.

Let’s start with the first pick.

Round 1, Pick #1 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Offensive Tackle

I know not everyone is in love with the idea of KC taking a tackle with the first overall pick, but when it comes to value at the top of the draft OT is the clear winner. Luke Joeckel/Texas A&M was the top ranked prospect on both lists with Eric Fisher/Central Michigan ranking 2nd and 3rd and Lane Johnson/Oklahoma ranking 6th and 7th. So three of the top seven players available in this draft are offensive tackles. So if the Chiefs want to take the best player available they can do it and fill a need. I realize that if KC keeps Branden Albert this season that they would be essentially drafting a RT at #1 overall, but if they are out to take the best player and fill a need then offensive tackle is the way to go.

Round 3, Pick #63 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Wide Receiver

While this draft lacks an elite WR prospect like Randy Moss, Julio Jones, or AJ Green it is INCREDIBLY deep with starting caliber WR prospects. Prospects that could have easily been early second round picks in other drafts may find themselves slipping into the 3rd round this year. The following players all ranked in the #57-84 range on at least one of the big boards listed above:

Justin Hunter – Tennessee
Terrance Williams – Baylor
Quinton Patton – Louisiana Tech
Markus Wheaton – Oregon State
Stedman Bailey – West Virginia
Aaron Dobson – Marshall
Da’Rick Rogers – Tennessee Tech

Now, it’s a safe bet that not all of those players will still be on the board, but odds are that several of them will be. That would allow KC to take a player that could compete for the #2 WR spot as a rookie at the top of the third round. By the way, while John Dorsey was in Green Bay they took Greg Jennings at pick #52 and Randall Cobb at pick #64. In my opinion the only other position that comes close to the talent available at this pick is CB, and with the signings of Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson I think WR seems much more likely.

Round 3, Pick #96 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Quarterback

I could be wrong about this, but I have a feeling that there is going to be a couple of QBs still available at this point that many people had predicted would go much earlier. Basically, the fact that several teams addressed the QB position via guys like Carson Palmer, Matt Flynn, and Kevin Kolb make it less likely that many QBs will be drafted in the first round and may therefore push some of the guys originally mocked in the 2nd-3rd round back even farther. There are 8 QBs that have been regularly mocked in the top 100 picks: Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray, and Zac Dysert.

Over the past 5 years the average amount of QBs taken in the first 3 rounds is only 5.4. The highest number of total QBs taken in the first 3 rounds during that time is 7. In a year where most feel the QB talent is down, it’s not out of the question that there could only be 4-5 QBs off the board when the Chiefs select at the end of the 3rd round. I wouldn’t even fall out of my chair if a guy like Tyler Wilson or Mike Glennon that were at one point mocked in the 1st round was still available. That means if Andy Reid wants a young QB to groom for the future this may be the prime time to snag one. The Chiefs pick again at #99 so they could easily wait a couple more picks, but my guess is that if you give all the QB needy teams one more go around in the 4th round that there won’t be much left to choose from in the 5th. At that point KC would be looking at guys like Matt Scott/Arizona, Landry Jones/Oklahoma, and Sean Renfree/Duke.

Round 4, Pick #99 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Running Back

Thus far in free agency Kansas City has not added a solid #2 RB to back up and share carries with Jamaal Charles. This may be a sign that they are looking to add one in the draft. Like WR, there aren’t any “super-star” prospects in this draft, but there are several mid round prospects that could become solid NFL contributors. The following backs are all ranked between #93-116 on at least one of the big boards listed above:

Montee Ball – Wisconsin
Andre Ellington – Clemson
Joseph Randle – Oklahoma State
Stepfan Taylor – Stanford
Mike Gillislee – Florida
Marcus Lattimore – South Carolina
Christine Michael – Texas A&M

Again, not all of these guys will be available with this pick, but several will be and KC could have their pick of which one they like best.

Round 5, Pick #134 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Offensive Line

At this point in the draft teams are looking for depth and developmental prospects and there are MANY options that will be available to do just that on the offensive line at this point in the draft. I don’t know if any of these players should start as rookies, but I think many of them may eventually develop into legit NFL starters. A 5th round pick that develops into a solid starter is great value, period. Even if takes them a few years to get there. Here is a list of players that at least one big board has as still available for KC in the 5th round:

Khaled Holmes – C – USC
PJ Lonergan – C – LSU
Hugh Thornton – G – Illinois
JC Tretter – G – Cornell
David Bakhitari – G/T – Colorado
Dallas Thomas – G/T – Tennessee
David Quessenberry – C/G/T – San Jose St.
Brennan Williams – T – North Carolina
Jordan Mills – T – Louisiana Tech
Xavier Nixon – T – Florida
Chris Faulk – T – LSU
Ricky Wagner – T – Wisconsin

I didn’t do the last three KC picks (#170, 204, and 207) because I think by the time you get to the 6th-7th rounds it’s more about individual project players that a team likes than it is positional depth/value. It’s possible that a certain position slides that deep into the draft, but I’d just be guessing if I tried to predict which one.

So if KC were to follow this blueprint what positions of need would not get addressed? The most glaring is probably the defensive front seven. KC could use more depth on the defensive line and another pass rush option. They are also in need of a replacement for Jovan Belcher at ILB, but perhaps the recent FA signings at LB will fill that hole.

The other positions that were ignored here are TE and safety. While KC doesn’t need to spend a high pick on either of those positions, a mid round pick to add depth is certainly a possibility.

So what do you think Addicts? If KC drafted those positions next week would you be happy? Do you feel like it would provide good value? Would it fill enough positions of need or do the defensive front seven, tight end, or safety have to be addressed in the draft? I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

Like any good organization, the Chiefs operate with a team vision. Some organizations write their vision statements down. Some don’t and operate with a vision that changes as times change.

That would be the Chiefs.

When you change from one set of general managers/coaches to another, the vision for your organization is going to change dramatically. When a GM signs one significant player after another — and releases significant players too — everyone gets a clearer picture of the vision for the team.

As the draft approaches — with significant questions unanswered — many are wondering what the next step of the current regime will be.

The answer may lie in looking to the… yet possible visions.

John Dorsey and Andy Reid appear to be on the same page. What does that really mean? It sounds like they share a similar vision.

In a program called the “Dream Manifesto” Thomas Herold says,

A vision is a strong force in anyone’s life, but a vision is essential in business…. When you create a successful vision, you begin to feel passionate about it…. When a vision is spread through a company, it pushes both the leaders and employees toward the same goals together rather than separately. Visions can successfully turn a corporate hierarchy into a harmonious and well-organized group.

Anyone who has been following the Chiefs for the past four years knows that the Chiefs had no “shared” vision. There was only Scott Pioli’s way and everyone else was a bystander. Including Todd Haley.

But, that was the past, and I digress.

Now, apparently several player prospects are still in the running to become the K.C. Chiefs number one pick. By taking into account how each of these prospects will affect the scheme and team, we can determine their dreamy outer limits, or their acute limitations.

Let’s begin with a rising star on the draft board, Eric Fisher.

If the Chiefs keep Branden Albert and draft Eric Fisher then plug him in at RT, they’d have a formidable offensive line. With Albert and Fisher locking down the outside pass rush, Alex Smith should get more time in the pocket than previous Chiefs QBs have seen in years. By signing G/TGeoff Schwartz, who says he favors playing Guard, the weakest positions along the OL should be Center and one Guard spot. The return of Rodney Hudson and possibly Ryan Lilja could solidify the Center position leaving  the other Guard spot for Jon Asamoah with Jeff Allen and Lilja offering solid back-ups there. This places OT Donald Stephenson as the Tackle back-up and spot starter.

Can you see it? Can you visualize it? I can, and it looks pretty awesome to me. Whether it will come to be, or not, is another thing but, it all starts with the vision.

Drafting OT Eric Fisher, who is said to have more upside than Luke Joeckel, semi-completes the Chiefs  offensive front and gives them a strong presence there. Fisher may allow a few more rookie mistakes than Joeckel but, because of his continued progress should develop into a premiere OT in the league… eventually. He also gives the Chiefs the flexibility to trade Albert down the line so he can swing over to LT, if and when.

All these same things can be said about Luke Joeckel except, with Joeckel, there comes a greater expectation for him to take over as the team’s LT from the get go.

Andy Reid has come out and stated that he wants his players to play where they want to play. In that sense, Fisher appears to be a better fit for the vision going forward.

Better team chemistry.

Creating a new team vision blossoms from the excitement that grows while conceptualizing… and in the process concurrently perceiving how well a prospective player’s skills jell with existing players… and simultaneously weighing the cost factor of an alternative vision lost.

If you choose one vision… you lose another.

This isn’t always true of course but, is usually the consequence.

I know a talented pianist, who upon graduating, had to choose between studying the piano or following another dream, a career in dance. They chose dancing, then danced around the world and saw every part of that vision come to life. They could still play piano, but obviously not at the level they would have, if they’d followed that vision through.

It’s an either/or choice for the Chiefs. They can trade the first pick… and hopefully pick up more picks… but, even then they must follow one path or another.

A vision the Chiefs could follow, is to draft a defensive lineman like Sharrif Floyd. Floyd doesn’t project well to NT so, the Chiefs would likely be taking him to play Defensive End. Floyd at his best can cause havoc anywhere along the defensive line. However, Floyd has a total of 4.5 sacks for his college career so… if Chiefs fans are counting on him to provide the pass pressure that Glenn Dorsey didn’t, then their vision of having Floyd in red and gold needs to be adjusted. Dorsey’s frame, 6-2, 316 and Floyd’s frame, 6-3, 297, are not tremendously different and so bringing in Floyd in to give the DL a big shot in the arm may not be a dream that ever comes to fruition… much like the addition of Glenn Dorsey in 2008.

The vision of Star Lotulelei at DT tackle may not be tremendously different than bringing Floyd in at DE either. The Chiefs are looking for a push against the OL on passing downs and while Lotulelei is very good against the run, he had 7.0 sacks in three years. However, 5.0 of those sacks came in his Senior season and it’s clear from watching games he’s played in that he is a disruptive force. However, if you go back and watch game tape of Glenn Dorsey in his last year at L.S.U., Star looks like a mirror. Both looked like the most driven players on the field but, Star’s limitation, short arms, means he’s not able to bat balls down when they’re released by the QB, which off sets his ability to penetrate. Lotulelei has some leadership ability that is unquestioned but, is that enough to make the Chiefs… “disruptive defensive line vision”… a dream come true?

The answer is… the vision of creating more pressure on opposing QBs may have to come from another defensive position. A position like, linebacker.

Another vision currently floating about the Chiefs cosmos, is the one about LB Dion Jordan. Some will argue that this dream would be better fulfilled by drafting the equally freakish athlete, Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah. Ansah may be the answer for some team high in the first round but, Dion Jordan is drawing some buzz around town as a legitimate potential #1 overall prospect.

When coupled with the Chiefs triumvirate Pro Bowl cartel… Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston… the specter of fusing Jordan’s hyper-dynamics makes for some pretty sweet visions of sugary plum hits (check out the tatoo at 2:21), all dancing in the head. To catch a glimpse of the real “vision” that is Dion Jordan, please don’t miss this 3:09 minute “ESPN Sports Science” presentation.

Oracles Andy Reid and Bob Sutton (the Chiefs new DC) can utilize Jordan in mixing pressure packages to run an attacking style defensive with endless ideation. For Sutton, this scheme will be similar to what his previous head coach, Rex Ryan, preferred and making Jordan a feature is the most natural fit because he gives Sutton all the flexibility possibly needed to run, and  s t r e t c h, that scheme.

Dion Jordan can drop into coverage and, at 6-6, make sure TEs aren’t going to gouge the defense as they have in years past. Antonio Gates has barbequed the Chiefs, on their own home field turf, enough to last a lifetime.

Using Dion Jordan as an ILB , as some are suggesting, resets the standards for what an ILB may be judged by. At 6-6 and 240, Jordan brings an athletic body to that position.  The Chiefs Derrick Johnson is 6-3 and 242 so the one outstanding difference is Jordan’s height. However, Jordan also brings a muscular flexibility that allows him to bend around the corner when pursuing a QB that is rare. It’s difficult to imagine Jordan not excelling next to the Chiefs divine trio

While fantasies of future prospects waltzing into the Chiefs lineup dominate my draft day experience… the visions lost… do so as well.

If the Chiefs take OLB Dion Jordan the questions along the OL remain… potentially… nightmare material. I’m sure it’s not what Alex Smith envisioned when he spit in his palm and shook hands with Andy for the privilege of coming to Kansas City.

If the Chiefs take Eric Fisher or Luke Joeckel… the offensive line gets better but, the defense will likely still have a hole in the heart and the pass rush will suffer for it.

If the Chiefs draft a QB @ #1… though many fans may rejoice… the offensive line and the pass rush may remain an Achilles heel.

If the Chiefs can trade out of the number one slot and acquire another pick in the second round… as Lyle Graversen pointed out in his post called, “Can John Dorsey Make A Deal?”… the Chiefs will be in a prime position to take two players in the top 50, both of whom should be able to step in and contribute as starters on day one. Graversen says picks 15-50 is where the real value lies in this draft.

As I stated in a reply on my most recent post,

Unless Reid and Dorsey can either… 1) trade back out of the number one spot thereby picking up a 2nd round pick or… 2) trade Albert and pick up a 2nd round pick… then taking an ILB who can come in and start right away is probably not going to happen in the draft (assuming they don’t take Jordan at #1).

The primary choice here is trading back out of the first pick because the Albert trade basically demands they turn around and use their number one pick on an OT since they would have just traded their LT away.

You’d have to think R&D are doing what they can to get value in a trade for the #1 pick… but that… if it’s going to happen… probably won’t happen… until draft day. They’ll also wait until draft day to make sure no other team comes along and offers more than may have already been laid on the table.

Wouldn’t it be great to be a fly on the wall and know what the actual offers already are. R&D have said they have already gotten calls… so… you have to hope the offers were real and reasonable and open ended so they can still be acted upon when the drafting moment arrives.

The real coup for the Chiefs… would be making both trades… Albert and the #1 pick. Then they’d end up with a high 1st-rounder & two 2nd-rounders… probably three players who would come in and start on day one.

Now… that should change the whole vision for what the Kansas City Chiefs will become in 2013.

Okay Addicts… do you have a vision? Or a nightmare?

]]> http://arrowheadaddict.com/2013/04/10/the-chiefs-vision-and-the-2013-draft/feed/ 0 http://arrowheadaddict.com/2013/04/08/can-john-dorsey-make-a-deal/ http://arrowheadaddict.com/2013/04/08/can-john-dorsey-make-a-deal/#comments Mon, 08 Apr 2013 12:00:24 +0000 Lyle Graversen http://arrowheadaddict.com/?p=44181 The Kansas City Chiefs may be in the worst possible position to get good value out of the 2013 NFL Draft. Normally, having the first overall pick is seen as a reward. Just a few months ago Chiefs fans were celebrating the fact that despite their season of agony, they would at least have that [...]

2013 NFL Draft: Can Chiefs’ John Dorsey Make A Deal? - Arrowhead Addict - Arrowhead Addict - A Kansas City Chiefs Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more

The Kansas City Chiefs may be in the worst possible position to get good value out of the 2013 NFL Draft. Normally, having the first overall pick is seen as a reward. Just a few months ago Chiefs fans were celebrating the fact that despite their season of agony, they would at least have that coveted first pick. Then they got a good look at the players available.

The thing is, this isn’t a bad draft class. There are lots of good players. So many in fact that there are going to be several first round caliber players still on the board in the 2nd round. There just doesn’t appear to be any franchise changing elite players at the top of the draft. So to recap, the best value in the draft is in the mid to late first round and early second round. Exactly where the Chiefs aren’t drafting.

That’s why I said they are in the worst position to get good value. Teams drafting in the mid to late first round will get good value with their first round pick and teams drafting at the top of the draft, while maybe not getting an elite player in the first, are at least rewarded with the ability to get another first round caliber player at the top of the second round. Unless of course you’ve traded away your second round pick.

Now, I’m not bashing Alex Smith. In fact, I’m slowly coming around to the idea of him and Andy Reid leading the KC offense. I’m not anti-Alex, I was just pro-Geno and high on the value that was going to be available for KC’s 2nd round pick. I get why Dorsey did it though. In a year when many experts think there isn’t a good starting QB in the entire draft (cue discussion #1,272 on if Geno Smith will succeed or not), Dorsey was able to get his day one starting QB for a 2nd rounder. That’s not bad value (although other QBs like Carson Palmer and Matt Flynn are going for less). It just means that Dorsey traded away the ability to get value out of the draft in return for his starting QB.

That’s why John Dorsey needs to prove his worth and make a deal in order to get back into the 2nd round and get the most out of his first draft as KC’s GM. If the Chiefs stay put they are currently in position to get one starting (and hopefully Pro Bowl caliber) player with the first pick and then won’t pick again until pick #63. In a draft where the best value available is probably in picks #15-50 that’s not great positioning. Could KC land a day one starter with pick #63? Yes, but usually 3rd round picks start more as role players and if you’re lucky then they eventually turn into starters.

So if KC wants more then one day one impact player from this draft class John Dorsey needs to make a move. The most likely deal is that he moves Branden Albert to the Dolphins for their 2nd round pick (#42). Many KC fans don’t like this move. I’ve stated before in posts that my basic feeling is that if they don’t like Alert (for whatever reason) we might as well get something for him. However, that may force KC to stay put at #1 overall to draft his replacement. Trading the first pick would be the other obvious way to pick up another pick or two and get more value out of this draft. However, other teams are looking at the same draft board we are and may be unlikely to trade up in a draft short on elite talent. As has been discussed on multiple occasions, the best hope KC has is that somebody wants to move up to take Geno Smith since QBs are typically the only position worth trading up to #1 for (cue discussion #1,273 on wether or not Geno is worth it or not). The final option would be to see if Dorsey could perhaps package his two 3rd round picks in return for moving up into the early to mid 2nd round if there was a certain player they felt was worth it.

Bottom line, I really want KC to get back into the 2nd round of this draft. I believe there is a good chance that a player that they could get in the #30-50 range could end up having just as much of an impact as the player they take with their first pick. Here are a list of some of the players that are in the #30-50 range on most big boards:

Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford
Eric Reid – S – LSU
Matt Elam – S – Florida
Kevin Minter – LB – LSU
Arthur Brown – LB – KSU
Eddie Lacy – RB – Alabama
DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson
Robert Woods – WR – USC
Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee

So what do you think Addicts? Do you want KC to get back into the 2nd round as badly as I do? Do you have faith that new GM John Dorsey can get it done? Are you okay with trading away Albert, the first overall pick, or our two 3rd round picks in order to get it done? I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!

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If you’re a Chiefs fan… you have concerns. These days most of us are concerning ourselves with who the Chiefs will be taking in the upcoming draft. But, if you’re at all like me (I know what you’re thinking… omg NO), you have other concerns as well.

Is it just me, or…

does anyone else wonder if Chiefs ex-GM Scott Pioli actually ever picked up that piece of trash in the stairwell… you know, the one he scolded his staff about to teach them a lesson? Or, did he assign someone to go pick it up instead? Or maybe hire a trash picker-upper-er? I’m hoping that it’s still there, in the exact same spot and that someday the Hunts will be giving tours, so fans can view the infamous… “piece of trash.” No… I’m not talking about Pioli. When I said he will be bust at Arrowhead, I didn’t mean they’ll make him a statue.

Is it just me, or…

is anyone else wondering if the Chiefs have enough coaches yet? After all, someone is going to have to teach the the players the new rules about open-field tackling and not leading with their helmets. Perhaps Leon Sandcastle will be available to do that… after the reality sets in… that no one is actually going to draft the 45 year old wanna-be-younger Deion Sanders look-alike. It could work too… since the real Deion Sanders never touched anyone in the open field.

(more…)

Say what you will about the moves that new Chiefs GM John Dorsey and head coach Andy Reid have made since they took control of the team, but one thing is clear. They are men of action. Since taking control they have systematically been remaking the roster. If you step back and look at everything they have done and how they have gone about doing it, a clear game plan emerges.

Step 1 – Evaluate the current roster and decide who you want to keep and who needs to go.

Dorsey and Reid clearly wanted to keep Dwayne Bowe. They decided Eric Winston was disposable. They franchised Branden Albert, but what exactly they plan to do with him remains uncertain. Finally, they decided that their QB was NOT on the roster they inherited from former Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.

Step 2 – Find their QB.

If you believe published media reports, Andy Reid took the KC job with the idea of bringing Alex Smith to KC to be his QB. Rumors of Smith to KC surfaced early on, but there was nothing concrete at that time. That changed after the combine. Shortly after the combine ended, reports surfaced saying that KC had agreed to a deal that would bring Smith to KC. So it appears to me that Reid told Dorsey that he wanted Smith, but they decided to wait to finalize anything until after they saw the QB draft prospects up close at the combine. Apparently they didn’t see anything at the combine that changed Reid’s mind. They dealt for Smith after the combine and Dorsey said at the press conference that Smith would be their starter for the foreseeable future. If any further proof was still needed to show that they weren’t going to commit very much to a rookie QB in this year’s draft they went out and committed multiple years and millions of dollars to Chase Daniel to be the #2 QB. The latest draft reports (i.e., rumor or smokescreen) is that the Chiefs are still strongly considering Geno Smith. My advice to KC fans would be to put no faith in those reports. A QB that is worth taking #1 overall is a valuable commodity. It is in KC’s best interest to sell Geno as just that in hopes of getting someone to trade up with them to take him. I believe the Chiefs have the QBs that will sit at one and two on the depth chart already on the roster. Now the #3 spot? Let’s just say that I don’t think Ricky Stanzi should get too comfortable.

Step 3 – Fill roster holes with solid (but not “super star”) free agent signings.

Reid and Dorsey have added several solid players that have upgraded the overall talent on the roster without breaking the bank for any one player. These signings include: Dunta Robinson, Sean Smith, Anthony Fasano, Mike DeVito, Donnie Avery, and Geoff Schwartz.

Step 4 – Thoroughly evaluate the draft prospects and set their draft board.

This is where the Chiefs are right now. They have reportedly had private work outs with multiple possible first round selections. Including:

Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Eric Fisher, OL, Central Michigan
Sharrif Floyd, DL, Florida
Luke Joeckel, OL, Texas A&M
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia
Dion Jordan, DL, Oregon
Dee Milliner, DB, Alabama
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

It appears to me that KC is taking a good look at the top 10 prospects in the draft. This could be in part because they want to do their homework on just who they will take at #1, but it could also prepare them for a trade down within the top 10. It doesn’t appear that KC is spending a lot of time looking at prospects that are projected to go in the the second half of the first round. Since the only people that would move up to #1 are teams looking for a QB and all of those teams are picking in the top 10 that’s a smart move.

Step 5 – ???????

I’m really curious to see what comes next. Will the team wait to make any other major moves before the draft? What will they do with Branden Albert? Will they be able to move back in the draft? I think those last two are related. If the team’s top priority is trading Albert then I think it lessons the chance that they’ll trade back from #1. With Albert gone they would have to get a top LT prospect and even if they just traded back to around 8-9 there is a chance that the top LTs could all be gone. The only way I see them trading Albert and the top pick is if they can work a deal in the top 4 picks.

I also think that an Albert trade would need to be completed before the start of the draft. Albert made it known that he doesn’t want to play anywhere except LT, everybody knows that now. So if KC drafts a LT at #1 and then tries to trade Albert, teams will use that against them. Right now KC can tell teams that if they can’t get good value for Albert that they’ll just keep him to play LT and draft another position in the first round.

That’s why I’m anxious to see if anything happens in the next few weeks. If Dorsey and Reid REALLY liked one of the LTs that they visited and are set on drafting him at #1 I think we could see Albert moved in the coming days. If they weren’t really sold on the left tackles then they may focus on trying to deal the #1 pick and keeping Albert for another season.

If I were running the show I’d trade Albert right now to Miami for their top 2nd round pick. I’d then use the money I saved on dealing Albert to sign Andre Smith away from Cincinnati. With my RT taken care of I’d see if I could get a team like Jax or Philly to come up to #1 to take Geno in return for their 2nd round pick as well. If they would do it, great, we can still take a top tackle in the 1st to replace Albert and we have two early 2nd round picks. If not, we take a LT at #1 and still have both tackle spots filled and a 2nd round pick.

So what do you think Addicts? What is Dorsey and Reid’s next move? Will we get any more answers soon? They clearly have a plan that they’re sticking to. I just wish I knew what it was. I do feel confident that these guys do have a clear cut plan and that so far they have done a nice job of improving the roster. I’m anxious to hear what you think in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A positive epidemic. It’s what Clark Hunt was hoping for. Chiefs ticket sales are up significantly. Why? Overall fan morale is climbing the charts.

In his book called, “The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference,” Malcolm Gladwell says,

“The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire… the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point.”

Sounds… and feels… a lot like what is transpiring at your local Arrowhead homestead.

When does a team turn… good? When can a fan say, wow, we just got better and now… we are a good team. A winning team.

Fans must be thinking this already… or off season ticket sales wouldn’t be sailing as they are (up 112%).

For the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs it could be the signing of Alex Smith. Could it have been signing two corners in free agency? Bringing in TE Anthony Fasano to pair with Tony Moeaki? Was it when Clark Hunt ushered Romeo Crennel out and Andy Reid in?

Who knows  for sure? However, it’s clear that fans have come to the point where they… believe.

(more…)

Now that the big “secret” is out that the Chiefs are bringing in Geno Smith for an “official” visit and evaluation, it’s time to take a look at a few comparables. Like, how does Geno’s West Virginia career stack up against Donovan McNabb’s Syracuse career and or Aaron Rodgers time in a Cal uni?

In Andy Reid’s first year as the Philadelphia Eagles’ head coach he drafted QB Donovan McNabb with the 2nd pick in 1999. In 2005, while with the Green Bay Packers, the K.C. Chiefs new GM John Dorsey helped draft reigning NFL QB king Aaron Rodgers with the 25th pick.

(more…)

When you go 2-14, the numbers have to change. Making AFC West Division calculations at this point may be a bit of a long shot, given that even the draft is still a month away, but the numbers are looking good for the Kansas City Chiefs right now.

The Oakland Raiders and the San Diego Chargers have gone through some significant changes this off season, but the 2012 division champ Denver Broncos have only added to their already lethal offense. So, let’s preview just what it might take for the Chiefs to change the math, compete for the division crown, and possibly make the playoffs for the first time since since 2010.

The Oakland Raiders

At 4-12, the Raiders could hardly be called a better team than the Chiefs, though their overall record indicates otherwise. Two victories over the Chiefs plus a win over Jacksonville and a big home victory over the Steelers sealed their win total.

(more…)

This is my first attempt at a mock draft this year. For my first mock I’m not going to put in any trades. I still believe there is a strong chance that KC may get someone to bite and move up to #1 to take Geno Smith, but for the sake of this mock I will keep everyone in their original draft slot.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Luke Joeckel
OT, Texas A&M

If Kansas City stays at #1 overall I think this pick is a done deal. I know many KC fans would like them to sign Branden Albert long term and go elsewhere with this pick, but I think the writing is on the wall. Even if they are able to trade back a few spots (cough, Bills, cough) I still think they will go OT, likely Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson whom they had a private work out with.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ezekiel Ansah
DE, BYU

New Jags coach Gus Bradley is a defensive guy. The Jags had the fewest sacks in the NFL last season. When you combine those things with already having a QB that they reached for on their roster in Blaine Gabbert, I think it will lead to them passing on Geno Smith and taking a defensive player. I think they need a true DE more than a LB (Dion Jordan) or a DT (Sharrif Floyd). That’s why I have Ansah and his amazing upside here over some of the other defensive players being mocked to them.

3. Oakland Raiders
Geno Smith
QB, West Virginia

This is the lowest possible spot I see Geno Smith going. The Raiders are in the process of rebuilding the mess left by Al Davis and the previous powers that be. Their cap situation is a mess. This isn’t going to be a quick turn around. Carson Palmer is an average at best QB right now and is on the decline. There is no way he is the long term QB for this team and I think the Raiders would love to get rid of his cap number. I have previously stated that I think Geno Smith’s upside is a player like Aaron Rodgers, a pocket QB with good athleticism, great accuracy, and a solid but not elite arm. The Raiders’ GM Reggie McKenzie just happens to be from Green Bay.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
Sharrif Floyd
DT, Florida

No player has shot up mock drafts more in the past month than Floyd. The general consensus is that he will be a top five pick. The Eagles are supposed to be running a 3-4 base next season and with the loss of Cullen Jenkins they’ll need someone to play DE in their three man front. The pairing of Floyd with last year’s first round pick Fletcher Cox would give Philly two very talented interior players. Star Lotulelei could also be a possibility if he clears medically.

5. Detroit Lions
Eric Fisher
OT, Central Michigan

This pick is pretty simple. The Lions best player is a WR and the quarterback that they rely on to get him the ball has some injury history. They have no LT to protect that quarterback and Eric Fisher is arguably the best player available at any position.

6. Cleveland Browns
Cordarrelle Patterson
WR, Tennessee

Ideally I think the Browns would like a new franchise QB, but there just isn’t anyone available here that is worth taking. With head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner running the offense they are going to throw the ball. So instead of drafting a QB they’ll get Brandon Weeden the best weapon available. Pairing Patterson with Josh Gordon would give Weeden two great young targets to use to help open up the field for Trent Richardson. Watch for a possible trade down here as well.

7. Arizona Cardinals
Chance Warmack
OG, Alabama

Like Cleveland, the Cards would love to go QB here. However, after working with Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck, new Cards coach Bruce Arians knows what a good young QB looks like and I think he’ll realize that there isn’t a QB like them on the board here. If he’s going to get by for a year with a bad QB, that QB is going to need better protection than what the Cards have had up front recently. This pick could also be Lane Johnson, but Warmack is the higher rated player and safer pick.

8. Buffalo Bills
Ryan Nassib
QB, Syracuse

I still think the Bills will feel pressured to trade up to #1 overall in order to take Geno Smith, but since I said I wouldn’t do any trades in this mock Nassib is plan B. Nassib seems to be the #2 QB in the draft at this point and obviously he has an advantage with his college coach now running things for the Bills. Do I think Nassib has any business being a top 10 pick? No. Do I think the Bills get a QB in the first round no matter what after Buddy Nix got caught running his mouth about needing to find his franchise QB and releasing Ryan Fitzpatrick? Yes.

9. New York Jets
Dion Jordan
OLB, Oregon

If Darrelle Revis gets traded as many believe, this pick could easily be Dee Milliner. Until that happens, I’m going with Dion Jordan here. Rex Ryan’s defense has lacked playmakers in the front seven recently. Jordan is a freak athlete that should help get some pressure on the QB.

10. Tennessee Titans
Dee Milliner
CB, Alabama

The Titans are probably really hoping that Darrelle Revis doesn’t get traded because I’m guessing Milliner is probably at the top on their wish list for this pick. Milliner could easily go higher than this, but if he’s available the Titans will jump all over him.

11. San Diego Chargers
Lane Johnson
OT, Oklahoma

This pick is a lot like the previous one. Johnson could possibly go before this, but if he’s there San Diego will pounce on him. The Chargers MUST land a LT to help give Phillip Rivers some time to throw. Don’t be surprised if San Diego moves up on draft day to ensure they land one of the top OTs in the draft if they think one won’t be there at pick #11.

12. Miami Dolphins
Xavier Rhodes
CB, Florida State

The Dolphins would love to land Milliner, but unless they are willing to trade up he won’t be an option here. That leaves either Rhodes or Desmond Trufant here if the Dolphins want to address their major need at CB. It’s a toss up between the two for me. I went with Rhodes because they lost a big CB in FA in Sean Smith and at 6’2″ Rhodes could fill that role of covering taller WRs.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Desmond Trufant
CB, Washington

If the Bucs land Revis, I’ll change this pick in my next mock, but for the time being the Bucs top need remains CB. With Milliner and Rhodes off the board that leaves Trufant as the top cover CB available.

14. Carolina Panthers
Star Lotulelei
DT, Utah

Lotulelei is one of the hardest players to mock at this point. He was able to work out at his pro day and reportedly looked good. If healthy (or medically cleared, to be more precise) he warrants a top 5 pick and has drawn numerous comparisons to Haloti Ngata. If teams don’t like the medical reports he could slide all the way to the middle rounds. It seems like Carolina has been looking for someone to anchor their interior defensive line forever so I think they will jump all over him unless the medical red flags are too much.

15. New Orleans Saints
Tavon Austin
WR, West Virginia

This pick is not need based, but the idea of giving Drew Brees arguably the most explosive offensive player in this draft is just too tempting. Austin has been moving up draft boards lately and getting to play indoors in the Super Dome with Brees throwing him the ball and Sean Payton drawing up plays for him would make him the front runner for offensive rookie of the year.

16. St. Louis Rams
Keenan Allen
WR, California

Offensive line and safety could also be options here, but Allen is a potential #1 WR and after releasing Steven Jackson it would appear that the Rams will rely more on Bradford throwing the ball. Pairing Allen with the recently signed Jared Cook at TE would greatly improve the Rams ability to throw the ball.

The future? It’s here. It’s now.

There’s no indication that the Kansas City Chiefs new handlers are building to succeed for the future, instead, they expect to win pronto. Every step John Dorsey and Andy Reid have taken from the time of their hire, has been aimed towards the idea of winning and winning now.

They are already winning the off season.

While the team started out this off season with many questions on many sides of the ball, the main questions now appear to only be related to the Chiefs offensive line. Sure, a middle linebacker is a must and depth is needed at other positions but, the focus clearly appears to have narrowed down to the offensive line.

Even on the offensive line front: the stars are aligning.

The Chiefs have taken care of… their Pro Bowl punter… their top 5 WR… and shored up their defensive secondary. As far as the first pick in the draft goes, there’s been a debate about who needs the help more, the defensive or offensive line but, the choice which appears to be emerging is, an offensive tackle.

(more…)

A lot can happen between now and draft day. Of course, I thought the exact same thing back in January. Well, we just couldn’t know then, what we think we know now. Kansas City GM John Michael Dorsey and coach Andrew Walter Reid have certainly been altering the landscape at Chiefs Way and Red Coat Drive, enough so that no one is sure what’s coming next.

As much as I’ve enjoyed seeing them etch their names in the new cement around Arrowhead during the first week of Free Agency, I’m a bit weary worn while watching the “professional” speculators do their speculating about who, or whom, the Chiefs may or may not be taking with the FIRST pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.

Not that I’m not interested, I am, but, there are other picks to speculate about as well. So, let’s take a look at the Chiefs 63rd pick in the draft, which, for now, appears to be the very next pick coming to them, following el numero uno.

(more…)

The Scene: My car, 4:30pm on March 12th.

It had been a normal day at work and I had just picked up my daughter from preschool for our 30 minute commute home, I turned over the radio to KC’s 610 AM and anxiously waited to hear if the Chiefs had struck early in free agency. I was excited, like a kid at Christmas. We have Anthony Fasano, “great” I thought. We have Mike DeVito from the Jets, “solid move” was my reaction. Then came word that the Alex Smith deal was finalized AND that the Chiefs had committed a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract to Chase Daniel to be their back up QB. It was at this moment that the truth finally sunk in.

My body went numb. Turning my head so my 5 year old in the back seat couldn’t see I stared out at the open highway in front of me and let this truth wash over me. A single solitary tear running down my cheek.

Okay, so I’m being a LITTLE melodramatic.

While this might be a slight exaggeration of how things went down (we all know I looked online before I left to pick up my daughter to see if the Chiefs had signed anyone), it does paint the picture of my true feelings on the matter. I REALLY wanted the Chiefs to draft Geno Smith. Even after news of the Alex Smith trade broke and I publicly declared my Geno Smith to the Chiefs bandwagon dismantled I was secretly holding out hope that it still might happen. The “Geno to KC” fan club meetings were still being held at undisclosed secret locations, but once news of the Daniel deal broke the little piece of hope that burned inside me was eternally “snuffed out” (sorry, probably too melodramatic again).

I still think Geno will be a franchise QB. I still think that the Chiefs would have been better off in the long run (maybe not next year) with Geno and their 2nd round draft pick then with Alex Smith, but it’s time to move on. I’m now focused on how my beloved Chiefs can best succeed going forward with Alex Smith as their starting QB. Amazingly, I believe the answer does involve Geno Smith being drafted with the #1 pick, just not by the Chiefs.

I completely understand Patrick Allen’s position he laid out so well (check it out HERE if you haven’t read it yet) regarding the Chiefs taking Geno, but it’s time to move on. The comments section and entire Chiefs blogosphere still contains people with their hopes up that Geno will be in KC next year. It’s not happening. I’m not trying to be a downer here. I LOVE Geno Smith. I spent the better part of 2 weeks making a 14 minute video breaking down why he should go #1. Alex Smith didn’t put the nail in the coffin, but the Daniel signing did. If KC was remotely considering Geno or any other QB in the first couple rounds, there’s no reason to pay Chase Daniel what they are paying him next year. Remember, this is a team that watched Geno’s tape, watched him throw at the combine, talked to him face to face, and then went straight home to KC and traded for Alex Smith. They don’t want Geno. I’ve accepted it, and so should you.

It’s okay though, I still think Geno can help KC build a playoff team.

I’m now convinced more than ever before that Geno Smith will be the #1 pick in this year’s draft. It just won’t be Kansas City that selects him. I now feel confident that the Chiefs will be able to trade out of the top pick so that another team can move up and take Geno.

I’ve been on the Geno bandwagon for months. Not because of internet hype, but because I took the time to watch every snap of him that I could find and felt that he had “star QB” upside. I watched the good games and the bad and my thought was that even though Geno was inconsistent, he possessed the talent to be elite if he received good coaching and time to develop. My view was not shared by most draft “experts”. As recently as the NFL combine Mike Mayock said that he’d give Geno a late first round grade.

Then he went out and threw some passes at his pro day, indoors, in shorts, with no defense, no rush, to WRs he’s thrown to for years, with months of practice on those exact throws and routes, and now everybody loves him.

I find that hilarious.

Everyone says it’s a player’s game tape that matters most, not workouts, and then after a pro day they bump him up from a late first round prospect to a sure fire top ten pick (I’m looking at you Mayock). I may be 100% wrong about Geno Smith, but at least my opinion was formed from watching his games not some staged performance that doesn’t translate to NFL games. Now suddenly Geno is the hot name. The Jaguars sent their entire front office to go watch him, the Eagles gave him a major work over at a personal work out. The Cardinals need a QB and let’s not forget about the Buffalo Bills (more on them in a minute).

There is no FA starting QB market for teams to turn to. There isn’t anyone available that is going to improve a team at QB, even if your starter is Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, John Skelton, or Tavaris Jackson. That’s how bad things are out there. QB is everything in this league and there are multiple teams out there that are significantly worse at QB than the Chiefs are now. That gives KC great leverage.

I know many of you want Geno Smith. So do I. I know many of you think we’d be better off with Geno over Alex Smith. I agree. John Dorsey and Andy Reid don’t. So instead of spending the next month hoping for something that isn’t happening I’ve turned my attention to the much more likely scenario which is one of these teams that are starved for a QB trading up to get Geno. Just a few weeks ago this was very unlikely. All the experts said he wasn’t worth it. Now Geno is a top ten pick and the clear best QB in the draft. A quarterback that is a sure fire top ten pick and clearly the best QB in his draft class is a valuable commodity. A commodity that someone will value enough to make a deal with KC for. Now, KC may not get the return that others have for the pick, but they can still get themselves a pretty good haul.

This is where the Buffalo Bills come in. In my opinion, Bills GM Buddy Nix is not a very smart man. The same GM that gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a FAT long term contract and drastically overpaid for Mario Williams made public comments earlier in the season about the Bills needing to get a franchise QB (despite the fact that HE paid Fitzpatrick like a franchise QB just a couple years ago) in the draft. Then he managed to get tricked into calling the Bucs GM and was recorded doing it. He basically told everyone in the world that Fitzpatrick wasn’t going to be his starter going forward. He also basically said that finding a QB was the key to their success going forward. Immediately after this recording went public the Bills cut Fitzpatrick. So now the Bills sit at pick #8 in the draft with no starting caliber QB on their roster, an intentional public statement that they would draft a franchise QB on record, an unintentional statement about them needing a QB this offseason because their (then) current QB wasn’t good enough on record, and no hope that the one QB seen as a possible franchise QB will still be there when they pick.

The Bills have their backs against the wall. The fact that the teams picking in slots 2-4 are all showing interest in Geno helps KC’s cause. If the Bills want Geno there is no way that they can hope he falls to them now and since one of the other teams that may be interested is the Jags at #2, the Bills will have to go all the way to #1 in order to land him for sure. We all know that QBs are over drafted and this year will be no exception.

So what do I think KC can get from KC?

I think the minimum return is Buffalo’s first and second round picks this year AND their first round pick next year.

I know what some of you are going to say “Nobody is giving that up for the first pick this year!” Really? The Falcons gave up more than that to move up to #5 to take a WR. The Redskins gave up THREE first round picks and change to get RG3. The Bills could still claim that they got their franchise QB at a discount compared to what other teams have and would have had to pay in other drafts. Plus, the Bills will be at a disadvantage in dealing for the first pick compared to teams like Jax and Philly who draft in front of them. Therefore, they will be forced to offer more than those teams if they want their man.

Let the record state that I am on record as stating that Geno Smith will be drafted #1 overall by the Buffalo Bills. Write it down.

Geno Smith has always been my plan when it came to the Chiefs and the 2013 draft. I’ve just had to change that plan given where things stand now. Geno Smith is not going to be a Kansas City Chief, but he is still the key to the Chiefs’ draft. I just hope KC fans can all come to terms with that.

I finally have.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Injuries happen. That’s not exactly how the popular bumper sticker reads but, you get the idea. Bad things can and usually do happen to each team each year. Three years ago the Green Bay Packers overcame a host of injuries to win the Super Bowl.

“What happens if” is a big question that is best answered by the proper preparation of the roster. When Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki went down two seasons ago… the cupboard was bare.

Now, the  Chiefs have been focusing on signing and keeping their own and filling in the black hole that has been the  quarterback position. However, is it enough. We can be sure that Dorsey and Reid are not done designing… or shopping? What if the Chiefs lost a front line player as things stand right now?

For instance, if JC goes down again, are the  Chiefs really any better off than they were two years ago? This is a big reason that so many teams now platoon at the RB position. Otherwise, once the main man goes down, so does the whole season.

What if the Chiefs lost their LT  for a major portion of the season? Donald Stephenson filled in admirably last year and if it happens again this year I’d expect the same results, if not even better. If Stephenson progresses we might expect to see him in a starting role in the next couple of years. Permanently. For now, he provide solid back-up. With Eric Winston smoke in the rear view mirror the Chiefs are currently one quart short of a gallon along the OL.

We all know that if Dwayne Bowe goes down, this season is not going to get better, it will be heading south faster than Clark Hunt at the end of a Chiefs season.

The same can now be said for the QB position. All of us here in “counting-our- chickens- before-they’ve-hatched” land know that if our newly un-crowned QB Alex Smith goes down from injury… the season will be going south faster than you can say “Dwayne Bowe is one of the best WRs in the league.”

So, what’s it all about Alfie?

It means, that while we’re all excited about the front line players that John Dorsey and Andy Reid are filling the roster with… we’re also going to be keeping a close eye on who they can get to bring depth to a team that has been in sore need of quality back-ups since ex-GM Scott Pioli left the comforts of a mid-afternoon Boston tea party for the rigors of Sunday Morning tail basting at Arrowhead.

This is not simply a question of depth. Yes, depth is involved but, the real question is… is there a player on the roster at each position who can take over and do a solid job until the starter returns to action?

The Packers had that 3 years ago.

While Donald Stephenson did an admirable job, Ryan Lilja taking over at Center for injured Rodney Hudson presented a weakness up the middle of the Chiefs offensive protection. With Rodney Hudson returning to complete his inaugural season the position is yet in need of fortification.

Making a mid-season adjustment at Center is rather a different matter than refilling the QB position.

This is one reason I’m sure the  Chiefs are not done bringing in more help at the QB position. In Philadelphia, Andy Reid always had another QB in the wings who he believed in and who he was developing.

The Chiefs may not be getting ready to draft Geno Smith #1 overall but, you can be certain the brain trust will be loading for bear at the QB hot spot… in one manner or another.

Of course, it difficult to imagine any starting position on the Chiefs roster that wouldn’t be hurt dramatically by the loss of a starter but, it’s difficult to name another position besides QB where the results of an injury would have a more damaging effect.

This is why I still believe the Chiefs will pick up a QB in this draft… even if it’s not with the first pick. Then again, selecting the best QB in this draft could help to solidify the most important position for years to come.

Whatever mistakes Andy Reid made two years ago when constructing the lame-named Dream Team we’re all hoping he’s learned his lessons. One mistake he didn’t make was leaving the QB cupboard bare. Nick Foles may not have stepped in and made a bold take over but, it was obvious to most who watched him that he has a future and consequently there’s been talk of his possibly coming to K.C..

One trade scenario I’ve heard is the Chiefs trading the first overall pick to Philly for the 4th pick + Nick Foles. I’d do that deal without hesitation. The Chiefs would likely be able to get whoever they wanted at number one plus be able to immediately gain a QB who Reid already has a dialog with. Here’s a post I wrote on Nick Foles 14 months ago.

There are so many possible options for improving the Chiefs QB position but, bringing Nick Foles to K.C. seems like a no brainer if all the Chiefs have to do is wait three picks to make their first pick because they will likely still be able get their man.

While most fans are keeping their eyes fixed on the big name players the Chiefs may be bidding on in Free Agency… because since they’ve already done an outstanding job of addressing the starters… it’s now the Chiefs injury contingency plan that I’m most interested.

Well, Addict fans, which positions do Dorsey and Reid need to fortify most?

Tonight at midnight the “official” NFL free agency period begins. For the past three days teams have been able to be “in contact” with players’ agents but no deals have been allowed to be signed. That all changes at the stroke of midnight tonight. Fans always want their team to go out and spend money on the highest profile players in hopes of landing a super star that will lead their team to a Super Bowl. That rarely if ever happens. The good teams use free agency to supplement their roster with solid players that fill gaps and provide depth. The teams that shell out huge pay days to a single player in free agency rarely get their money’s worth. With that in mind, I’ve come up with ten moves I’d like to see KC make in the coming days. There is no way that they will make all ten, but I think a combination of four or five of these could really help solidify the roster heading into the draft.

I’ll start with the offense.

1. Restructure Matt Cassel’s contract to be the backup QB.

I know this won’t be a popular opinion, but have you looked at the FA QB market? Jason Campbell, David Garrard, Rex Grossman, do any of these guys REALLY sound like better options to fill in for Alex Smith should he go down with an injury? It seems to me that Reid and Dorsey want to win games now. If that’s the case then you don’t want a mid to late round draft pick starting for you if your QB goes down. Cassel did well in NE and under Charlie Weis in KC when he had good coaching. He’s also a team first guy that would support Alex Smith. I think that under Andy Reid Cassel would be the best backup QB option available for KC. They can still draft a QB and he can compete with Stanzi for the #3 spot.

2. Sign RB LaRod Stephens-Howling from Arizona.

A lot of KC fans have talked about getting a new “thunder” to replace Peyton Hillis as the change of pace to Jamaal Charles’ “lightning”. However, Andy Reid doesn’t run the ball much so I’m just not sure a “thunder” is needed. Frankly, I’d rather they give the ball to JC on 3rd and short then some 240 lbs back up RB anyway. Stephens-Howling is only 26 years old, he’s quick, he catches the ball well, he plays special teams, he’s a good kick returner, he would be a perfect back up to JC, and best of all he will be relatively cheap in free agency. I say let him and Cyrus Gray compete for the 2nd string spot.

3. Sign WR David Nelson from Buffalo.

David Nelson is not a big name WR like Greg Jennings or Mike Wallace, but after giving Dwayne Bowe a huge payday the Chiefs can’t afford to pay another WR big FA dollars. Nelson is only 26 years old and was looking like an up and coming player before an ACL injury in week one last year ended his season. In 2011 he started 13 games and caught 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 TDs. He’s another big WR at 6’5″ and 214 lbs. The nice thing about Nelson is that he would push Jon Baldwin. If Baldwin responds and claims the #2 WR spot then Nelson could be the #3 WR, which would be fine since he shouldn’t command a lot of money. If Baldwin doesn’t step up then Nelson is good enough to step in and be the #2 behind Bowe. A lot of people are clamoring for a deep threat WR, but since Smith doesn’t have the strongest arm, I’m not sure KC could utilize that kind of player.

4. Sign TE Brandon Myers from Oakland.

Brandon Myers quietly caught 79 passes for 806 yards and 4 TDs for the Raiders last season. The 27 year old won’t be cheap, but also won’t command the huge contract that a big name would. Myers would push Moeaki as the first string TE. Myers isn’t a great blocker, but he isn’t a turn-style either. The TE position is going to take on an even greater importance with Andy Reid and Alex Smith at the helm of the offense. Both men have relied heavily on the TE as a safety valve. The Chiefs just can’t rely on Moeaki and his injury history. Plus, stealing one of the Raiders better offensive players makes this move all the better.

5. Sign C/G Evan Dietrich-Smith from Green Bay.

The 26 year old Dietrich-Smith has ties to new GM John Dorsey. He has versatility in that he could play at either center or guard. He has only started 9 games over the past two seasons so again he shouldn’t command a fat contract. Besides his connection to Dorsey, the other big plus is his ability to play all the interior line spots gives KC some options. If Hudson is slow to come back from his injury then he could start at center. If Hudson is ready to go then he could challenge Jeff Allen for a starting guard spot.

6. Sign RT Andre Smith from Cincinnati.

This is the one real big dollar free agent on my list. It’s probably the biggest long shot as well. Most people are assuming that the Chiefs cut Eric Winston to make room for the selection of an OT with the first overall pick. On a recent radio interview Winston said his release was a “philosophical thing”. Many have said that Reid likes a bigger and more physical offensive line. Andre Smith is a physically imposing 6’4″ 335 lbs (I’d wager he’s actually heavier then that listed weight). Smith and Albert would be a great pair of bookend tackles and would give KC the freedom back to do whatever they want with the first overall pick that they had before they released Winston.

Now on to the defense.

7. Re-sign Ropati Pitoitua.

This one seems like a no brainer to me. Pitoitua played well for KC last season and he has experience in the Jets 3-4 system that their new DC will be bringing to KC. I don’t know that Pitoitua should be a starter, but he’s a solid rotational player and should come with a cheap price tag. (Note: if recent reports of the Chiefs keeping Glenn Dorsey are true this move may not be needed.)

8. Sign DT/DE Desmond Bryant from Oakland.

Stealing another Raider, isn’t it great! Bryant might be the player I’d most like to see in KC on this list. He’s 26 years old, 6’6″ and 311 lbs, and has averaged 4.5 sacks over the past two seasons as an interior pass rusher. A defensive front of Bryant, Poe, and Jackson would be a very physically imposing one. Bryant would become the best interior pass rusher on the team and would possibly open Poe up for one on one blocking on passing downs. (Again, if Dorsey is re-signed this may not be feasible, but given the choice of Dorsey or Bryant I’d take Bryant hands down.)

9. Sign ILB Bart Scott from the Jets.

The Chiefs need a new starting ILB next to Derrick Johnson. Scott is getting up there in years and is a bit of a loud mouth. That sounds like a bad thing but it’s exactly why I want him in KC. Guys like DJ and Tamba Hali are both great lead by example guys but they aren’t much of a “rally the troops” vocal leader when the game is on the line. Scott would obviously know the Chiefs new 3-4 by heart and might give the talented KC defense the vocal leader they need to hold them accountable when things aren’t going well.

10. Sign FS Charles Woodson from Green Bay.

Another connection with GM John Dorsey from Green Bay. Woodson isn’t ready to retire yet, but may only have one or two seasons left in him. I love the idea of Woodson back there leading the Chiefs secondary. I REALLY love the idea of him mentoring Eric Berry. Woodson could play FS next year and then perhaps they could move the recently signed Dunta Robinson to FS after he retires.

There’s my list Addicts. What do you think? Who do you like? Who don’t you like? Who did I leave off the list? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below and I look forward to see if any of these guys end up in KC starting tonight.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last week I told everyone that despite speculation that the KC Chiefs might be interested in Alex Smith I was going to ride the “Geno Smith to KC” bandwagon until the wheels fell off. With it now all but certain that Alex Smith will be the next KC QB it appears that my bandwagon ride was short lived. This trade not only caused the wheels to fall off the bandwagon, it likely burnt the whole thing to the ground.

As regular readers may know, my outlook is usually a positive one. I like to take enjoyment out of following the Chiefs (despite their recent efforts to make that impossible) so I don’t usually like to dwell on the bad or the frustrating. There are usually enough voices out there spelling out every misstep the team makes anyway. That having been said, I want to take a second to explain why this trade initially upset me so much.

It’s NOT that I don’t think Alex Smith can be a good NFL starting QB.

It’s NOT that they gave up their #34 draft pick for him (although that does sting).

It’s that the dream of seeing the Chiefs draft a QB that turns into a star and leads them to a Super Bowl has been crushed. I’m 35 years old and have no memory of Todd Blackledge as a Kansas City Chief. The first QB that I remember is Steve DeBerg. That means that in my entire lifetime as a Chiefs fan I have never seen them commit a high draft pick to a QB. I have watched year after year as other teams drafted QBs that eventually led them to championships. I wasn’t thinking that KC would land the next Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in this draft or even the next Andrew Luck or RG3, but the next Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, or Joe Flacco seemed at least possible.

That’s what drafting Geno Smith #1 overall would have been for me. It would have opened the door to the possibility of that dream coming true for the team I loved. Was I confident that Geno would turn into that guy? No, but I was willing to chance that for a shot at greatness. In my opinion the best way to win a Super Bowl is to hit on a big time QB and you can only hit on one if you’re willing to try. This trade meant that for the foreseeable future KC is not willing to risk it. They’re going to play it safe. The realization that this dream is now dead took the wind out my sails. To be honest, it was probably two full days before I even started reading any Chiefs related material again because it was just too depressing for me.

I’d love to sit here and say that I’m over it now. That I no longer feel that way and that I’m now 100% convinced that trading for Alex Smith was the right thing to do, but that would be a lie. I still feel bummed about the loss of possibility that I saw in Geno Smith but now that my “I don’t want Alex Smith! I want our OWN QB!” hissy fit is about over the rational part of my brain is starting to see the possible upside in Alex Smith.

First, Andy Reid and John Dorsey went to the combine and took a really close and hard look at the QBs that are available in this draft. They reportedly met with 8 different QBs while at the combine (Barkley, Bray, Dysert, Glennon, Manuel, Nassib, Smith, and Wilson). After watching these guys on tape, seeing them throw up close at the combine, and meeting with them face to face they went straight back to KC and traded for Alex Smith. That says something to me. Despite all the potential that “I” see in Geno Smith, the Chiefs weren’t interested. The Chiefs would rather have Alex Smith.

The “hissy fit” throwing emotional part of me says that the reason they want Alex over Geno is that they are playing it “safe” and are scared of what might happen if Geno didn’t pan out. However, as days go by the rational part of my brain has started to jump in with a Lee Corso-esque “Not so fast my friend”.

Is picking Alex Smith over Geno Smith really the safe and easy choice? These guys are taking over a team whose fan base flew banners over the stadium in protest over the old regime. This old regime’s #1 crime against the fans was sticking with a QB that they traded a 2nd round pick to get. The fans wore black to the games and left the stadium half empty for most of the season. These fans, the people whose money pays for their multi-million dollar operation are SCREAMING at the top of their lungs for these guys to end the 30 year drought of not drafting our own franchise QB and they still went straight home from the combine and traded for Alex Smith.

These guys aren’t stupid. They had to know that the average fan that was screaming for Scott Pioli to get fired would see the parallels between the Cassel and Smith trades and freak out. They had to know that trading for Alex Smith and having it fail would infuriate the fan base 100 times more than drafting a QB that failed would. Playing a rookie QB would actually be “safer” for their job security because people wouldn’t expect the rookie to be good right away and if he never panned out they’d still get credit with a lot of fans for at least trying.

That tells me that this isn’t about playing it safe. It says to me that these guys honestly believe that Alex Smith has a better chance of leading the Chiefs to a Super Bowl than Geno Smith or any other QB in this draft does.

I may not like that answer, I may not want to agree with that answer, but that’s the only logical explanation that makes sense, and this is coming from a guy that was in a full blown “I WANT MY GENO!!!” hissy fit just a few days ago.

The other thing that the logical part of my brain has started to pick up on is how it’s not just about them not liking the rookie QBs, they actually must see something in Alex Smith that they like. Why you ask? Because John Dorsey and Andy Reid have direct ties to other QBs that I’m sure could have been had for the same deal that they gave San Francisco, those QBs being Matt Flynn and Nick Foles. I know the Eagles have said that they want to keep Foles, but let’s be honest, he doesn’t fit Chip Kelly’s system and had KC offered them the #34 pick they could have taken a QB like EJ Manuel for Kelly to develop behind Mike Vick. Dorsey helped draft Flynn in Green Bay and saw him up close when he was there. Reid drafted Foles just last season and knows what he’s capable of. Despite these personal connections the Chiefs went after Smith. That tells me they see something in him that they think gives them the best chance to win.

So what could that be?

The emotional and ticked off part of me says that it’s to come be a play it safe, game manager, who will just hand the ball off to Jamaal Charles and whose personal contribution to the team will simply be not turning the ball over.

But then that pesky logical side of my brain starts sounding like Lee Corso again.

“Couldn’t they have trained a rookie to hand the ball off and not throw risky passes? Why give up valuable draft picks and enrage the fan base for that?”

I mean they couldn’t possibly think that Alex Smith could actually contribute to winning games, could they? Clearly Smith’s success in SF was all about Jim Harbaugh, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and their defense.

That’s what I was thinking until yesterday. Then two things happened, I read THIS blog post from a 49ers fan stating that Alex Smith’s improvement actually started the year before Harbaugh got there when they fired offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye (who KC fans know all about), and then I got an email from my step brother/fellow Chiefs die hard, Cory Zellers (props on the excellent info). The email included some numbers that he had crunched. Here’s a direct quote from his email explaining what he did.

I dug into his (Alex Smith) stats and settled on the last 2 seasons (including post season) plus 2010 after he returned from injury in week 14. This gave me a nice round 32 games (2 seasons).

Ultimately I wanted to take his best play (last 32 games) and ratio the attempts (and remaining stats) up to the average # of attempts for an Andy Reid offense. I know Smith was a “game manager” in SF and Reid has had pass first offenses his whole career. I knew there was going to be a big difference in number of attempts, but I was a little surprised at the results. I pulled together all of Reid’s seasons in Philly and threw out his first year (Pederson and McNabb) to come up with an average season’s passing stats.

I then ratio-ed up Alex Smith’s avg season from the last 32 games from 416 attempts (per season) to 562 attempts (Reid’s avg season). The results were not earth shattering, but I would be pretty happy with a season like that out of Alex Smith.

Here are the results. If you take the completion percentage (63%), yards per attempt (7.5), and percentage of TD passes (4.8%) and interceptions (1.3%) that Alex Smith has had over his past 32 games and increased the attempts to the typical Andy Reid season you get a season that looks like this:

354-562 (63%), 4,189 yards (7.5 YPA), 27 TDs and 7 INTs.

That’s a pretty good season by any standard and that’s what I believe John Dorsey and Andy Reid think they are bringing to Kansas City. For a basis of comparison, the closest QB numbers to that from last season are probably Matt Schaub’s. Schaub went 350-544 (64.3%) for 4,008 yards (7.4 YPA), 22 TDs, and 12 INTs. Would you have been okay if the Chiefs traded their 2nd round pick for Schaub?

I know what some of you are thinking: “Lyle, the reason Smith was able to put up that kind of completion percentage and protect the football is because of the San Francisco run game and defense that their team was built around, if you take them away and put the ball in Smith’s hands 562 times, he’s going to fail!”

I thought so too before I got the email above. I started thinking about Reid’s offense. Reid is often criticized for not running the ball enough, so it’s safe to say that Smith isn’t going to be following the same “run the ball and play defense” mentality that they had in San Francisco. He’s going to have the ball in his hands more. It got me thinking about another QB that switched teams under similar circumstances at a similar point in his career. This QB was seen as a solid starter but was let go because the team had a young QB that was seen as having a greater upside. In his two seasons directly before leaving he averaged 450 attempts per season, about 3,368 yards/season, had about a 65% completion percentage, and averaged 7.5 yards per attempt. Those numbers are pretty similar to what Smith has done over his past 32 games played. This QB went to a new team with a chip on his shoulder and a coach that built his offense around his abilities and his attempts jumped up to 554 in his first season with the new team and he threw for 4,418 yards which was over 800 yards more than his previous career high. Overnight he went from being “just an average NFL QB that lacks the elite talent to win Super Bowls” to one of the most prolific passers in NFL history, and eventually a Super Bowl champion. That QB is Drew Brees.

At this point I have probably lost all credibility with some of you who are now laughing at what an unbelievable Kool Aid drinking homer I am. Let me be clear, I am not saying I think Alex Smith is going to turn into Drew Brees. I’m not even saying I think Alex Smith will be successful in KC. I’m saying I think Dorsey and Reid think Smith will be successful in KC. I’m saying that I don’t think they are bringing Smith here to be Matt Cassel 2.0 or to just be some “play it safe” place holder who can help KC float around .500 while they wait to find the REAL franchise QB that they can win playoff games with. I think their plan is to make Alex Smith KC’s version of Drew Brees as apposed to KC’s version of Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer.

I don’t know if this will work and we’ll win a lot of games with Smith or if he’ll go down in flames like Matt Cassel did.

The idea of Alex Smith becoming the next Drew Brees is probably just a dream, crazy talk. But is it any more unrealistic than the idea of Brees becoming one of the most prolific QBs in NFL history when he left San Diego? Wouldn’t most experts have said that Brees wasn’t capable of doing it? Wouldn’t they have said that his success in San Diego had more to do with Norv Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates than Brees’ ability to play QB? Is Dorsey and Reid’s plan of building a Super Bowl winning team around Alex Smith any more crazy than my dream of them turning Geno Smith into the next Aaron Rodgers?

Look, I’m still bummed that they won’t be drafting Geno Smith with the first overall pick. I’m still stinging from the loss of that dream (and the #34 pick). I still have my doubts about Alex Smith being a QB that can take KC to where they want to go, but once I came to the conclusion that Alex Smith was not brought here to be the next Matt Cassel (a QB that the team had to work around) and that John Dorsey and Andy Reid must see Alex Smith as a QB that they can build around it at least made the future a lot more interesting. Once again I’m back to waiting anxiously for the next breaking Chiefs news to hit so I can see what else the team has planned.

That’s a start. It’s certainly an improvement over the “hissy fit” I was throwing a few days ago.

So where are you at Addicts? Still in “hissy fit” mode like I was? Excited to see what Smith can do? Taking a wait and see approach? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

It’s deja vu all over again on Groundhog’s Day while staring in Harry Potter’s mirror of Erised.

OMG… or LOL… or is there new abbreviated text word for “HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE?”

Let’s take care of first things first. Amos and Andy… uh… I’m talking about another comedy routine…John and Andy… better hope Geno Smith is a bust because if Geno ends up in a Raiders uni flinging the ball all over Arrowhead in a route of the Chiefs, the Save-Our-Chiefs cry may resurface sooner than anyone suspects.

Now, on to Alex Smith in red and gold. How regrettable is it that an organization that appeared to be on the verge of turning a corner from decades of an ugly first round QB bias, has taken an old, well worn path to bringing in the next Joe Montana: trading with the San Francisco 49ers for a back-up to supposedly be their new franchise knight in shining armor.

Was Clark Hunt in pre-school when the Chiefs brought in Steve Bono or Elvis Grbac from the 49ers so, he just doesn’t recall the Arrowhead pain and suffering? Also, as much as I loved Joe Montana he only played 25 regular season games in his two last seasons, both with the Chiefs. However, they paid dearly to bring him in for less than two whole years of service. In 1993, the Chiefs handed away their 18th overall, first round, pick to San Francisco for their 1994 3rd round pick plus the 9ers threw in Safety David Whitmore. The Chiefs got 16 undistinguished games from Whitmore in two season and then selected WR Lake Dawson (4 years and 103 total receptions) in the 3rd.

(more…)

Take the following picks I’ve made, highlight them, copy them and paste them into your comments window… then you can replace the prospects with your own choices… even if it’s just one or two.  However, you have to justify your selection in that round and say why it was better. To do that, just link a video or a review of that player or heck… just give us a sentence with your analysis: that works too.

Copy/Paste the following to play The Re-Mockable Mock Game

Round 1: QB Geno Smith West Virginia
Round 2: ILB Manti Te’o, 6-2, 255
Round 3a: C Travis Frederick, Wisconsin, 6-4, 338
Round 3b: CB, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Connecticut, 6-1, 192
Round 4: QB, E.J. Manuel, Florida State, 6-4, 237
Round 5: RB, Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State, 6-2, 227
Round 6: TE, Nick Kasa, Colorado, 6-6, 271
Round 7: DE, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Notre Dame, 6-4, 300

First, read my 7 round selections, breakdown and reasoning:

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Yesterday Paddy shared with you the latest KC Chiefs related gossip going around the NFL, first that the Chiefs are interested in trading for Alex Smith and drafting Luke Joeckel, and then that SF is reporting that a deal for Smith (to an unnamed team) is “effectively complete”. Please excuse me now while I now pound my head against the keyboard in frustration.

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(and yes, I actually did do it, my head is apparently drawn to y, 4, and 6)

Look, I get it. John Dorsey and Andy Reid have forgotten more about what makes a winning football team than I’ll ever know. They are professionals that have a track record of success in the NFL and I am a public school band teacher. So if they think that is what is best for the Chiefs the sensible thing would be for you to trust their opinion over mine. That having been said…..

ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME?!?!?!?!?!?!?

In this little scenario that Ian Rapoport lays out the Chiefs would trade away one draft pick to acquire a quarterback that would essentially be an upgraded version of Matt Cassel who I would assume that they will then release. THEN they would let a perfectly good LT walk in free agency and use the once in a lifetime chance at having the first overall pick to take a LT to fill the hole that they created by letting the LT that they already had in house leave town.

I’m sorry, but after typing that I feel the need to bang my head on the keyboard again.

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(not as many numbers this time, I must have aimed lower)

Meanwhile, while this INCREDIBLY FRUSTRATING rumor was taking flight, Geno Smith was busy cementing himself as the top QB prospect in the 2013 draft. Smith highlighted a strong combine performance by posting a fantastic 4.59 second time in the 40 yard dash. That is the exact same time put up by Cam Newton, it was only 0.04 slower than Russell Wilson, and was only 0.06 slower than the NFL’s “next big thing” Colin Kaepernick. It was actually 0.06 FASTER than EJ Manuel who was labeled going in as the only QB athletic enough to incorporate any of the popular read option offensive schemes into his arsenal. So at a time when the NFL is looking for great athletes to play the QB position, it appears that despite the fact that he prefers to stand tall in the pocket, Geno Smith is actually the best equipped to make something happen with his feet should he need to.

Now, I know what some of you are going to say. “Lyle, you don’t draft a QB because he looks good running around in shorts!” You know who agrees with you? Geno Smith!

4.56 40, 10.4 broad jump, 34 inch vert. Yet none of this defines me as a QB! The game is won between the ears, study the tape!

— Eugene Geno Smith (@GenoSmith_12) February 24, 2013

Smith gets it. He’s a film junky. He’s driven to be the best and is willing to put in the work to make it happen. Was his throwing session at the combine perfect? No. Did most consider it the best of all the QBs at the combine? Yes. That’s what really matters to me. That’s why I’m riding the Geno Smith to Kansas City Bandwagon until the wheels fall off. He is the BEST QB IN THIS DRAFT. The NFL is a QB driven league. We have ZERO NFL CALIBER QBs ON OUR ROSTER. With the first pick in the draft we have a chance to guarantee that we walk away with the best QB available. I DON’T CARE how he stacks up against previous first QBs taken. I DON’T CARE how he grades out compared to the top LTs or DTs in this draft. LTs and DTs don’t win you Super Bowls, really good QBs do. That is why QBs ALWAYS get drafted higher than the “experts” have them slotted on their big boards. Hitting on a QB pays off 10 times more than hitting on a LT. Hitting on a QB increases your odds of going to the playoffs 10 times more than hitting on a LT. You think Miami doesn’t wish they had taken Matt Ryan over Jake Long? Joe Thomas may just be the best LT in all of football but how has that worked out for the Browns while he has been blocking for Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and Colt McCoy?

I get that Geno has holes in his game. I get that he has some work to do. I get that he is in need of some coaching. Mike Mayock recently said he’s seen Geno Smith make all the big time QB throws, but he’s too inconsistent. You know who else has admitted that? Geno Smith. He’s flat out said that he still needs to work to be more consistent. My point is that if he has the talent to make all the throws, the work ethic to keep working, AND a coach like Andy Reid to mentor him, I like his odds to succeed. Is there still a risk? Sure there is. Could Geno bust? Absolutely.

I’ll still take Geno Smith and Branden Albert over Alex Smith and Luke Joeckel every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I’ll also take watching Geno Smith bust for my beloved Chiefs over watching Geno Smith turn into a Pro Bowl QB for another team while KC stumbles along in mediocrity with Alex Smith at QB knowing that Geno could have been ours.

But what do I know, I’m not a NFL GM or head coach. I’m just a blogger. A blogger that is going to keep riding the Geno Smith to KC bandwagon until the wheels fall off.

Now who’s with me?

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In case you missed it, HERE‘s my video on why Geno is worth the #1 pick.

Like any other fan in the Addict, I dream dreams for the Chiefs… of Montana in red and gold, of Marcus Allen diving over the pile for a Chiefs TD, and of Priest Holmes following his HOF blockers into the end zone… ooooops… that wasn’t a dream at all… just a pleasant flashback. Things haven’t always been this bad in Kansas City. We used to actually have some incredible talent on the roster.

Anyway… now I’m dreaming of a heavenly off season… dumping Pioli and Crennel… hiring Reid and Dorsey… mastering free agency and drafting the hell out of the draft.

To do that… as the song says… A Change is Gonna Come. Let’s see if you could live with these changes:

Would you… could you… trade away our first round picks this season and next season if it meant the Chiefs could secure the likes of Joe Flacco? On Thursday during an interview with Metro Sports Andy Reid said that first round choices are a 50-50 hit-miss proposition. So, it makes mathematical sense to give away two number one picks to get a proven Super Bowl winner at the most important position on the field. I’d do that trade in a minute. Pro Football Talk (PFT) is reporting that some teams have been thinking of making this bid before the postseason even took place. Now that the postseason has played out, in grand fashion for Mr Flacco I might add, it would be a steal to get this Joe in the fold… for the remainder of his career. Mr Hunt, if you ever have considered a time that you might want to be opening your pocket book wide… now’s that moment.

Would you… could you… cut Kevin Boss and Steve Breaston? Not to worry — consider that job done for you. A bigger question may have to do with who else you would be… or could be… willing to cut yourself? It’s now clear that the reigning rulers of Chiefstopia are adamantly at it when it comes to tailoring the team and altering the atmosphere in the Arrowhead dressing cubbies.

From Clark Hunt’s two week turn-around of Crennel & Pioli to Reid & Dorsey… to Reid’s nimble & methodical hiring of a fresh and minty staff… to the Shaun Smith prescribed off season routine… to the signing of a mini-van load of practice players… to Dorsey’s admonitions that’s there’s not a lot to like in this year’s QB draft class… to bringing in the absent-hinded Safety Husain Abdullah… and now the releasing of Boss and Breaston — things are beginning to shift to a magnitude that screams: don’t blink or you’ll miss it! Now, you can begin to get a sense for just how dramatic the make-over will be by the time next season starts.

The question is: who else would you either cut if you could and be glad to do the honors yourself… or who do you predict get’s cut next? My prediction is… Glenn Dorsey is not far behind Boss and Breaston and gets no name-sake grace from the new Chiefs GM.

Would you… could you… widen the football field another 35 feet? Proponents say this will cut down on injuries. Andrew Hawkins, owner of the Cincinnati Bengals thinks adding width to the playing field would save a lot of injuries. Hawkins says,

“It would prevent a lot of the severe collisions. Guys are getting faster every year. We know that. But with the NFL spacing being more confined than the CFL, there are a lot more big hits. There are a lot more tight windows. It would prevent not all, but a larger portion, of big hits.”

NFL great QB Warren Moon says doing that, would open up a lot of huge spaces in the defense and make it much easier for the offenses to score. Which, Moon calls “an unfair advantage.”

I tend to agree with Warren Moon and while I could see ten feet being added to each side of the  field — 12 yards total would change the dynamics of the game thus alter offensive and defensive statistics. That would ultimately usher in a heterogeneous era, an era that shouldn’t be compared to the great game of football as we’ve known it up to this point in time.

Would you… could you… allow both Glenn Dorsey, the Chiefs 5th pick in the 2008 draft, and Tyson Jackson, the Chiefs 3rd pick in the 2009 draft… would you… could you… allow them to walk away from the team? ProFootballFocus has suggested that the reason that Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and now Justin Houston have all made the Pro Bowl is because of the play of Dorsey and Jackson. If GD & TJ eat up blockers in front of them then Hali, DJ and Houston can get to where they want to go without having to go through a brick wall to get there. The demands of a 34 defense for DEs is dramatically different than they are for a 43 DE. Yes, we’d all like to see a lot more push from our DE duo when it comes time to rush the passer, but they have done an above average job of stuffing the run. The Chiefs real run stuffing challenge comes up the middle — not Dorsey and Jackson’s territory. While I’m making a case for both of them to be retained…. I’m really saying that even though all of this may be true… I’m ready to allow them to walk. Why? Because the amount it would cost to resign them would make signing Dwayne Bowe and Branden Albert prohibitive. The question then is: who is more valuable to the team — Bowe and Albert — or Dorsey and Jackson. Based on their performances over several years… priority wise… it’s Bowe first and Albert second. Bye-bye Glenn and Tyson.

Would you… could you… project the Chiefs to battle for the division crown in 2013 based solely alone on the fact that the they have the 5th weakest strength of schedule in the league?  Even with all the positive moves going on in Chiefslandia this offseason you’d probably be off your rocker to predict anything like that quite yet. Why? Because all three other teams in the AFC West have even weaker schedules next season. Take a look.

Would you… could you… admit that only one of the following players are going to be the Chiefs opening day starting QB in 2013: Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Mike, Glennon, Alex Smith, NIck Foles, Brandon Weeden, Michael Vick, Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi, or Alex Tanney?

I believe that about covers it. If you think the Chiefs could possibly end up with someone who is not mentioned here… please speak up now or forever hold your piece. I think it’s important to narrow our choices down so that we can know what to expect next year.

Oh… I heard JaMarcus Russell is available. I understand he has a big arm… and tongue!

Would you… could you… draft Manti’ Te’o with the second pick of the second round? Te’o, a once ballyhooed top ten ranked pick, has fallen off the deep end, in more than one way, and now finds himself in a free fall. So, how much has his hinky-slimy-hijinks changed your opinion of him as a football player? No, I don’t want to hear another comment about his — invisible entourage — but, I am interested in how much he could help the Chiefs. The question is, would he help… or would his presence eventually turn the Chiefs locker room into a unreality-TV-internet-phenomenon? Which also means he won’t be very helpful on the field.

I say take him if he’s there at pick #34.

Would you… could you… predict that after three season from now, the best QB’s in the league will be Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick? AR and CK should become the torch bearers. In what is likely to be the beginning of the post Brady Manning era (figuring Manning plays at least one more season and Brady three) you look around the league at the best QBs and ask: who else could it be? I wonder if Robert Griffin III will be healthy enough to scale the heights and remain there. I wonder if Joe Flacco has already reached his pinnacle and there’s only one direction left for him to go and it’s not up. I wonder if Drew Brees will be able to sustain his tasmanian production or if there’ll be a big drop off by then. I wonder if Matt Stafford will ever get to work with a whole team that is worthy of his talent. I wonder if Andrew Luck’s 27th in the league QBR will ever ascend to the NFL heavens. I wonder if Sam Bradford will ever get to throw to a better than average receiver (or just how long he can survive with Barry Richardson protecting his non-blind side). I wonder if Russell WIlson will have a sophomore slump or continue to amaze. I wonder if Matty Ice will melt in Atlanta without his baby binky, Tony Gonzales.

Yes, l ask myself similar questions about Kaepernick and Rodgers but, every time I watch them they both woo me and wow me so much that it’s hard to believe, three years from now, that both of them won’t be in the middle of sculpting their way to Canton.

In the meantime… I wonder, will the Chiefs have a QB worth mentioning?

Last month I gave you a look at the 2013 NFL Draft consensus big board right before the Senior Bowl. With the NFL combine about to get under way I thought it might be a good idea to give you a look at the updated version. I’ll be using many of the same sources as I did in the last edition. Volume 2 is a composite of the following rankings: CBS’s NFL Draft Scout, Walterfootball.com, Drafttek, Bleacher Report, Scout’s Inc, Draftcountdown.com, NEPatriotsDraft.com, SI.com, and fftoolbox.com. In this edition I’ll give you the players current rank, their previous rank from last month, and also the “ranking range” that the player had. The later being the highest and lowest ranking that the player had from the different sources listed above. Afterwards, I’ll discuss the latest board’s impact on the KC Chiefs’ draft.

You can see that despite the fact that no meaningful football has been played in the past month, the board has seen a lot of fluctuation. This is in part a result of how some prospects performed at the Senior Bowl (Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson), but it is also a result of scouts having more time to watch tape on the prospects. I suspect that we’ll see a similar fluidity to the board after the combine is over and as the actual draft draws nearer. Also, I’d like to point out just how much disagreement there still is out there. Take a second to look at the ranking ranges of these prospects. They are all over the map. There is no bigger example than Sylvester Williams who ranked in at #50 but was rated as high as #15 on set of rankings and as low as #93 on another.

So how does this big board effect the Chiefs’ draft? Well, first off, there are only 6 consensus top 10 players from these nine sources: Joeckel, Lotulelei, Werner, Warmack, Fisher, and Milliner. In fact, if you look at the ranking ranges all the other prospects had at least one source that ranked them outside the top 15. So ANY prospect (not just QBs) taken first overall that aren’t one of the 6 players listed above will be seen as a huge reach by some experts.

So will KC draft one of those 6 players at first overall? Recent reports have surfaced that Branden Albert has passed his physical with KC and that they are working to re-sign him. If this is true and KC comes to a deal with Albert, then Joeckel and Fisher seem unlikely picks. If KC were to let Albert walk, then they would be very much in play. Taking a guard 1st overall seems unlikely, even one as good as Warmack. Werner is strictly an edge pass rusher and with Hali and Houston on the roster he would seem a poor bet for the pick as well. That really only leaves Lotulelei and Milliner as reasonable possibilities if Albert re-signs. Both of these players would fill a need (although if KC were to sign Chris Canty who visited the Chiefs their need at DE would be reduced) and would likely be foundational players for KC for a long time.

So what if KC goes outside those top six players with the first pick?

In my opinion, if KC goes outside those consensus top 10 players listed above it would almost certainly be for Geno Smith. I know that John Dorsey recently told Adam Teicher that there isn’t a stand out QB, but according to these rankings there is. Geno Smith ranks in at #12 in these rankings. The next QB on the list is Matt Barkley at #33. That’s a 21 spot difference. Would I be okay with the Chiefs taking the 12th overall prospect at #1 if it meant that they were getting a QB that was 21 spots better than any other QB in the draft? Yes, yes I would.

Plus, I take issue with people that say we’ll get better “value” if we take a QB at #34 overall. I would expect that at least 3 QBs will come off the board before KC’s 2nd round pick. That means that the best QB available when KC drafts in the 2nd round will probably be ranked in the 40s on the overall big board. Meanwhile, experts all over are talking about how this draft may lack elite talent at the top but it has excellent depth. Case in point, there are exactly 34 prospects on this list that were ranked in the top 20 on at least one set of rankings. That means that there is guaranteed to be at least one prospect on the board when the Chiefs pick in the 2nd round that some had as a top 20 pick. So how is taking a QB at #34 that is ranked in the 40s when there is still top 20 talent left on the table better value?

I would argue that in a draft lacking in elite top talent but deep in overall value that reaching for Geno at #1 would actually be less costly than passing up solid first round talent at the top of the 2nd round to take the 4th or 5th best QB in a weak QB class. Frankly, if KC doesn’t take a QB at #1 overall I’d rather they waited until the 3rd-5th rounds to take one.

I understand what Dorsey told Teicher, but what do you expect him to say? “We think there is one guy that is clearly the best at QB and if we don’t get him we’re in trouble.” Why would he put himself into a corner like that? At this point I’m sure KC is trying to keep all of their options open. Am I saying that I’m confident that they’ll draft Geno? No way, I don’t have a clue. I’m also not ruling it out.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the matter. What do you think of this latest big board? Who do you see KC taking at this point? Where do you see the value in drafting a QB? Let’s hear your answers in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

32 picks per round, right? The first 64 picks make up the first two rounds, right? In the 2013 draft, that’s not exactly true.

In round two of the 2013 NFL Draft, two teams have lost their picks: the Cleveland Browns and the New Orleans Saints. The Saints lose their round 2 pick for their involvement in Bountygate. The Browns used their second-round pick for 2013 on WR Josh Gordon, who they took in the supplemental draft.

Vwah-lah… 64 picks in the first two rounds becomes 62.  So, when the Chiefs pick first in round 3, they are essentially drafting at the back of round two… mathematically speaking.

So, the Chiefs will have the 63rd pick in this draft.

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Recently Kiper stated that the best QBs in the 2013 draft, “are not good enough to take with the first pick and so the Chiefs would be best served by trading back in the draft.”

However, look at the teams picking 2-10 and ask yourself.. .is a there a high likelihood that any of these teams will jump at a chance to draft the best QB in this draft? I have to say yes… to almost every single team.

Here they are:

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One way to do that is to look at some popular mock drafts and determine, based upon those mocks, who would be left over and available for the Chiefs near the beginning of the second round.The outcome most interesting to me right now comes from the mocks that project Geno Smith at number 1. Some of those mocks include: Rob Rang at CBS Sports, Dan Kadar at SBNation,  Walter at Walter Football, Charlie at Walter Football, Paul Banks at the Sports Bank,  Steve Shoup at FanSpeak, Kevin Hanson at EatDrinkSleep Football, Eric Galko at Optimum Scouting, Nate Bouda at NFL Trade Rumors, Jay O’Brien at The NFL Report, and Dane Brugler at NFL Draft Scout.

Matthew Hodges at NFL Draft Monster has a three round mock you might really enjoy and so does Peter Smith at Pigskin Heaven. On Friday, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com projected Geno Smith first in his mock draft too.

15 out of 20 of the most recent mocks I found show Geno Smith going first. So, we’ll project the Chiefs second round selection based on Mr. Smith going to Hollywood… err… I mean Kansas City.

Over at NFL.com, Bucky Brooks has a first round mock projecting Geno Smith first to the Chiefs and if you check off all the players he’s projecting to be gone by the end of the first round, below you’ll find a list of the best 20 players who would be left over for the Chiefs to choose from if Brooks’ mock comes true. You can use any site you want to do your check listing but, I chose CBS Sports. The prospects left behind from Brooks mock are also listed by using the top 100 list at DraftTek.com as a checklist. DraftTeks list can be found following the CBS list below.

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I think it is safe to say that most Kansas City Chiefs fans approve of the Andy Reid hiring. I think one of the things that most fans like about Reid is his history of getting the most out of his QBs. There are a lot of opinions out there on what the Chiefs should do at QB next season, but even though there isn’t a consensus as to who the QB should be, there does seem to be a general trust in Reid’s opinion on the matter. In other words, a lot of KC fans seem to be taking an “I want (insert QB here) to be the QB next season, but ultimately I’ll trust Reid’s opinion on the matter” approach.

My question is, just how much trust do you have in Reid’s decision of who will be his QB?

Will you trust it even if he goes with your absolute last choice?

The recent quotes by Tamba Hali got me thinking, will you still trust his judgement even if he decides to go with Matt Cassel?

Now, let me start by saying that this is NOT a pro-Matt Cassel post. I don’t want Matt Cassel to be on the Chiefs roster next year, let alone starting games for the team I love. I’ve firmly established myself on the Geno Smith bandwagon, but if it’s not Geno I still hope they identify the QB that they feel is the best in this draft and take him first overall. I don’t care if it’s seen as a “reach” or “good value”. We need a QB and have a chance to get the best one in this class, there is value in that regardless of wether or not this year’s top QB is as good as previous #1 overall picks. That’s MY opinion. I know a lot of you agree and I know several of you do not. I’m not here to sway you to my opinion on drafting a QB #1 overall this week. I just wanted to clearly state for the record that I am NOT in favor of Matt Cassel being the starting QB so please don’t fill the comments section with angry rants about what an idiot I am for still backing Cassel.

Now that I have that on the record, let me lay out my “doomsday” scenario where Matt Cassel could be the opening day starter in 2013. This scenario starts with Reid breaking my heart and deciding that he doesn’t like a single QB in this draft enough to draft them with the first overall pick. He may pick one in the 2nd or 3rd round, but he doesn’t feel that they will be ready to start from day one as a rookie. That means that Reid will need a veteran to man the position until the rookie is ready. The options available to him will include keeping a current Chief like Cassel or Brady Quinn, acquiring a veteran from another team like Alex Smith, Matt Flynn, Mike Vick, or Nick Foles, or signing a free agent like Matt Moore or Jason Campbell. It’s also possible that Smith, Flynn, Vick, or Foles could be released by their current team for salary cap issues and would then be available via free agency but obviously their current teams would prefer to get something for them.

So in this scenario the first decision Reid has to make is if there are any free agent QBs that are better than Matt Cassel available. If none of the QBs currently under contract are released then this is debatable. I guess I would take Matt Moore over Matt Cassel just to have someone different, but do I have any faith that he is a better player? Not really. Their career numbers make them look like the same guy.

Matt Cassel: 58.9%, 6.6 YPA, 82 TDs, 57 INTs
Matt Moore: 59.1%, 6.9 YPA, 33 TDs, 26 INTs

Cassel is two years older and has many more starts, but there is very little evidence that Reid would be foolish to pass on Moore to keep Cassel who is already on his roster. So even though I don’t want Cassel around I’d have a hard time bashing Reid if he kept Cassel around instead of bringing in someone from this incredibly weak QB free agent group. Now, if Alex Smith were to be released and they could get him signed for a contract that was equal or less than Cassel’s I’d be strongly in favor of signing Smith, not because I think he’s clearly better than Cassel, but because he’d get a fresh start here and wouldn’t have the negative stigma attached to him that Cassel does.

While we’re on the subject of Alex Smith, let’s use him as the focus of our discussion on if they should trade for a veteran QB. If Chip Kelly decides Nick Foles doesn’t fit his offense and would like to deal him he’d be my first choice to trade for since he is young enough to be a possible QB of the future. After Foles though, Alex Smith is considered the next best option. I’ve already said that I would strongly be in favor of signing Smith if he was a free agent and Reid wanted a veteran starting QB, but would he be worth trading for? What if San Francisco wants a 2nd/3rd round pick for him? Is the difference between Smith and Cassel worthy of a valuable draft pick? Before you answer that, look at these three sets of numbers. First Cassel and Smith’s career numbers:

Matt Cassel: 58.9%, 6.6 YPA, 82 TDs, 57 INTs
Alex Smith: 59.3%, 6.6 YPA, 81 TDs, 63 INTs

Over the course of their careers these two are the same guy. Next, let’s look at their numbers over the past two seasons:

Matt Cassel: 58.8%, 6.4 YPA, 16 TDs, 21 INTs (in 18 games)
Alex Smith: 64.3%, 7.4 YPA, 30 TDs, 10 INTs (in 25 games)

Now that is a huge difference. If Andy Reid thinks that this difference is reflective of Cassel and Smith’s abilities then he very well may feel that trading for Smith would be worth while (I’m still not in favor of trading a 2nd/3rd rounder, maybe a 4th/5th). However, what if Reid thinks that Smith’s success was more of a factor of the coaching and stability that he received under Jim Harbaugh compared to his previous coaching staffs? What if we were to compare Smith’s two good seasons under Harbaugh to Cassel’s two good seasons under McDaniels and Weiss? Here’s what those numbers look like:

Matt Cassel: 61.0%, 7.0 YPA, 48 TDs, 18 INTs (31 games)
Alex Smith: 64.3%, 7.4 YPA, 30 TDs, 10 INTs (25 games)

Now we’re looking a little more comparable. Cassel is still behind Smith in completion percentage, YPA, and INTs but the difference is much smaller and Cassel actually has a sizable lead in TDs. When looking at these numbers, its not out of the question that Reid could think that these two are similar enough that it wouldn’t be worth giving up a draft pick in order to get Smith when he already has Cassel on the roster. Especially if he thinks he can have his draft pick ready to take over in a short amount of time.

So hear’s the question, is the current difference between Smith and Cassel reflected in their career numbers and numbers when they’ve received good coaching which are VERY similar or are they reflected in the numbers from the past two seasons which make Smith out to be the vastly superior QB?

The question is NOT which QB would Chiefs fans rather have. We all know the answer there would be Smith hands down (if they are the only two options). Andy Reid doesn’t have the negative stigma attached to Matt Cassel that we all do. I’m sure he knows that going with Cassel wouldn’t go over well, but ask yourself this “If Reid feels that Cassel and Smith are basically the same guy and the 49ers won’t release him, is it worth trading away a draft pick just to make us happy?”

As much as I DON’T want Cassel to be the starting QB next season I don’t think I want a head coach or GM that would trade away draft picks for the sole purpose of keeping their approval polls looking good either. Especially if he’s only looking for a short term solution until he grooms his next young QB. Of course he could avoid this situation all together by just drafting Geno Smith first overall and starting him from day one, but I digress.

So I’m putting the question out there to you guys. How much trust do you have in Andy Reid when it comes to the QB position? If he goes with someone you are strongly apposed to (be it Cassel or a free agent or draft pick you don’t like) will you still have faith? If he went with Cassel as a short term answer while he groomed a 2nd round draft pick would that effect how much you followed/supported the team? Maybe a better way to ask it is which runs deeper, your faith in Andy Reid with QBs or your hatred of Matt Cassel as the Chiefs QB?

I’m anxious to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!

Some will say it’s all about strengthening the weakest links and others: adding the highest quality players indiscriminate of what positions those players play.

What has been missing from this conversation, and equation, is perhaps a less conventional view that, if, the Chiefs were in any of the games they lost last year… it would have “changed the game” and reshaped the way we are evaluating each player now as well as every position of need.

At first sight, it might sound like an absurd theory masquerading as … if the Chiefs had won more games last year then, their players would have looked better. However, this is not the case.

No, this piece is all about proactive decision making. Making decisions that have the highest percentages of… changing the game… decisions that can positively impact everyone on the team, and organization to the greatest degree.

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As I watched Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick do battle in the Super Bowl yesterday I was reminded once again of something we all know all too well, the KC Chiefs REALLY need a quarterback. Whenever a team needs a new QB it seems that nothing else matters. Its all the fans can talk about. It’s all the media wants to talk about. It’s almost all that us sports bloggers can write about. I agree that the decision of who will play QB for KC next season is probably the most important decision. However, there is another decision that KC must make first that will have a huge impact on who KC gets to play QB for them. That decision is what to do with starting LT Branden Albert.

Now, before I go any further, let me be 100% clear. If the Chiefs have no doubts about Branden Albert’s long term health then it would be foolish to not re-sign him. However, most KC fans seem to be taking Albert’s health for granted. Blogs and KC talk radio shows are filled with fans saying that it would be ridiculous to draft a LT at #1 overall when you can just re-segn the perfectly good LT you already have. The problem with that line of thinking is that back problems can be a BIG problem for offensive linemen if they become chronic. That is why the state of Branden Albert’s back is so important to the Chiefs offseason.

Now before you start flooding the comments section with things like “I heard it’s not that serious”, “Albert said he is 100% healthy”, and “I saw pictures of him on Twitter doing squats, his back is fine now.” Let’s just all be reasonable and say that none of us know what the long term condition of Albert’s back is. We don’t know if it’s 100% healthy and no more likely to get injured next year as any other NFL player or if he has a degenerative condition that will progressively get worse and worse until it causes him to retire. We don’t know. We haven’t seen his X-Rays. Of course Albert and his agent are going to say its fine, they want to sign a big, fat, long term contract. It’s also in the Chiefs best interest to voice concerns about his back (even if they aren’t worried) in hopes of driving his asking price down. So I don’t see any point in debating if Albert’s back is fine or a problem, because it’s all speculation.

I will say, once again, that if they feel his back is fine then they should sign him long term and put an end to the Luke Joeckel draft speculation once and for all. That is what I’m hoping for. I think most of you regular readers are already aware that I am firmly in the “Draft Geno Smith” camp at this point.

However, I do want to discuss what might happen if Albert’s back is deemed to be too risky by the Chiefs organization. As much as we’d all like to brush his injury aside, re-signing Albert with serious questions about his back could be a huge mistake for KC. Look at this last season with the Chargers and Jared Gaither. Jared Gaither missed the entire 2010 season with a bad back. Then in 2011 he signed with our own Chiefs where he never started a game and was released after ten weeks. He then signed with SD and started their final 5 games and looked great. So they signed him to be their starting left tackle for last season. Guess what happened after only 4 games though? That’s right, his season ended with back problems and the Chargers were left with a huge hole at LT which caused problems for their offense all season long. That’s the thing with these back injuries, a guy can be healthy for a while but eventually it could come back to bite you. Gaither looked great at the end of the 2011 season and I’m sure Chargers fans were clamoring to re-sign him the same way KC fans are clamoring to re-sign Albert now. Albert could be able to play a game today, but that doesn’t mean there might not be long term concerns about his back. Granted Gaither had a much bigger history of back problems than Albert currently has, but KC should do their due diligence in checking out his back before committing a lot of years, money, and the safety of their next starting QB to him.

Finding a left tackle is important for any team, but this offseason it is especially important for KC because it will shape what they do in the draft. Many like myself would like to see them take a QB with the first pick. However, if they don’t like what they see when they look at Albert’s back then it will be hard to pass up Luke Joeckel at #1 overall when he seems to be the consensus best player on the board. Do I want them to pick Joeckel? No, I don’t, but if they don’t feel they can trust Albert’s health then I would understand it. Especially since there doesn’t appear to be anyone that they could draft in the 2nd round that could walk in and start at LT on day one.

There are only three LT prospects that most agree could be starters as rookies: Joeckel, Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher, and Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson. All three are now seen as early to mid first round picks. So if they are looking for a new LT for next season the only pick in the draft that they could fill it with is their first round pick. Otherwise, they would have to look to free agency.

In Green Bay (where new GM John Dorsey comes from) they didn’t sign big name free agents. They built through the draft almost exclusively (Charles Woodson being the one exception). So going out and signing a LT like Jake Long would be out of character for our new GM. It could happen, but it seems less likely than drafting one to me. There are a few other LTs that could hit free agency if they don’t agree to new deals with their current teams. Those names include Atlanta’s Sam Baker, the Giants’ William Beatty, the Saints Jermon Bushrod, and the Broncos’ Ryan Clady. None of those players will come cheap (although all will probably be cheaper than Jake Long). So the question again is if Albert’s back is a problem, do you see an answer in free agency? Long may be available, but he’ll be VERY expensive and has some injury problems of his own. The other players may not even hit the open market. I just don’t see a great (or likely) solution in free agency and I certainly don’t like the idea of drafting a QB at #1 overall and protecting his blind side with Donald Stephenson.

So needless to say I’m anxious to see what happens with KC and Branden Albert. If they don’t re-sign him, I will assume it’s because of health concerns, not because they just want to pass on their own solid LT to draft another one. I’m thinking that before we get our answer on who the Chiefs QB will be, we will probably get the answer to what is going on with Albert. That answer could very well tip their hand on what they will do early in the draft. It should be very interesting.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Before we all succumb to the deluge that has already begun in New Orleans, the site of the NFL’s annual penultimate event, let’s take a look at some issues we in Chiefs nation care a little more about. Like, who the Chiefs will be selecting in the draft.

“Super” Player Personnel Acquisitions
Analyzing the Chiefs needs is one way to determine who the Chiefs should select. Taking the so-called “best-player-available” while ignoring team needs is another way to determine who the Chiefs should select too.

The Chiefs seems to be set at the kicking positions so we can bypass that conversation… for the most part. Some have suggested that Ryan Succop at least needs some competition.

On Defense the Chiefs were 12th against the pass last year and 27th against the run. So, one response to that might be to make sure you draft a run stuffing DT and an ILB who is a thumper but, I have yet to find the ILB thumper in this draft.

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Last week the NFL world descended on Mobile, Alabama for the first real event of the NFL offseason, the Senior Bowl. In the big picture, the Senior Bowl isn’t a definitive assessment of how players will do in the NFL or where they will get drafted. In fact, many of this year’s first round prospects didn’t even participate. However, it does allow us to get a look at some draft prospects directly under the microscope of NFL talent evaluators.

In many ways, the game itself is an afterthought. In case you’re wondering, this year the South defeated the North by a score of 21-16, but by the time the game kicked off most of the NFL GM’s, coaches, and scouts had already left town. Most NFL personnel men use the Senior Bowl to see how the players react in practice. These players are thrown together with players they’ve never met and have to learn terminology they’ve never heard before. How well do they pick it up? How do they do when going against other NFL prospects in practice drills knowing all 32 teams are watching their every move? Who goes hard every snap of practice and who takes some reps off? Who listens to the coaching, picks up the system, and shows real growth in only a few practices? Do any of these players show leadership in this short amount of time? This is where the Senior Bowl really is valuable in the evaluation process. Plus, teams actually get to sit down and talk to some of these players face to face. The game itself is less valuable than the hours of actual game footage they already have on these players from games that really counted.

So at the end of this piece I’ll give you the highlights of the game, but first I want to talk about what players helped themselves or hurt themselves during the week of practice leading up to the game since this is what most NFL teams base their evaluations on.

I should note that since I wasn’t in Mobile, these evaluations were collectively put together by reading and following several different people who were there and noticed similar things from the same players. So if only one guy commented on a prospect looking good, but the others did not, I didn’t include him. A player had to be mentioned by at least three sources to be included. Sources included:

CBS Sports’ NFLDraftScout.com: @RobRang and @dpbrugler
NFL.com: @Gil_Brandt, @MoveTheSticks, @RapSheet (and anything that Mike Mayock says)
Walterfootball.com: @walterfootball
thesidelineview.com: @caplannfl
NEPatriotsDraft.com: @NEPD_Loyko
DraftCountdown.com: @DraftCountdown
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller: @nfldraftscout
National Football Post: @RUSSLANDE and @MattBowen41
FirstRoundGrade.com: @FirstRoundGrade
No website, but NFL Philosophy is a must follow on Twitter: @NFLosophy

QUARTERBACKS:

I’m going to just be up front with you about the QBs at the Senior Bowl. Very little was done to change perceptions of this QB class. Before the week at the Senior Bowl if you asked NFL draft “experts” who the best QB there was you would have had some answer Arkansas’s Tyler Wilson, some say NC State’s Mike Glennon, and a few say Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib. After the Senior Bowl practices, nothing had changed. Some were saying Wilson looked the best, some were saying Glennon, and a few were saying Nassib. Basically, none of these guys did enough to change people’s minds. If you were a big fan of one of these three before, they didn’t do poorly enough (in practice) to scare you off and none of the other guys were SO good that they changed your mind. Depending on who you talk to, any one of those three gave the best performance and the other two had “moments” but still have flaws and inconsistencies. So it may end up that the biggest winners at QB from the Senior Bowl were Geno Smith and Matt Barkley since the other QBs failed to take advantage of the extra time in front of NFL personnel men. Most people still seem to think that Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib are worthy of somewhere between a mid to late 1st round pick or an early 2nd round pick. Wilson, as expected, was the best interview of the three but had the smallest hands at the weigh-in (has been known to lead to more fumbles for some QBs). Glennon did not impress at the weigh-in where he was described as “thin and undefined”.

Florida State’s EJ Manuel reinforced what people thought of him going in. He’s incredibly athletic and has a good arm but is very raw. Even his biggest supporters don’t seem to think he should play right away, needing several years of good coaching to develop him. He is seen as having intriguing upside and if a team already has a QB and feels they can wait for him to develop he could go higher than his current ability would justify (and his performance in the game itself will only add to this).

Oklahoma’s Landry Jones didn’t do much to help his case. He did make an occasional throw that got people’s attention, but the big knock on Jones is that he checks down WAY too much and is afraid to take chances downfield. Also, Jones didn’t handle it well when plays broke down and he had to improvise. This reinforces my thought of Oklahoma QBs, that they are very reliant on their college system and coaches and struggle to read defenses on their own. If you still aren’t scared of Jones, I read one practice report that said Jones’ check downs and inability to handle pressure reminded them of our own Matt Cassel. (Run away!)

Miami of Ohio QB Zac Dysert probably had the worst week of all the QBs. Going in, there were some people including him in the same tier of QBs as Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib. However, Dysert was very erratic all week and clearly struggled to get his timing down. Before the Senior Bowl Dysert may have been in the discussion for KC for someone to look at with their 2nd round pick, but after his work in Mobile I don’t think that will happen. The National Football Post’s Russ Lande went as far to say “This week Dysert did not look like a quarterback with the talent to start in the NFL.” Ouch!

KC Outlook:

The Chiefs obviously need a QB in the worst way. None of the prospects at the Senior Bowl did enough to jump up draft boards to where they would be considered the “best player available” at #1 which is what the Chiefs are claiming they will do with the pick. My concern is that if they don’t take a QB #1 overall (cough, Geno Smith, cough), I’m not sure I want them to take a QB at #34. Let’s say at least 3 QBs go in the first round, that means KC is committing the #34 overall pick (which should yield an impact player) to a QB that is essentially the leftovers in a weak QB class. I say if they find a QB that they think is clearly the best in this draft, take him at #1 (cough, Geno Smith, cough). Otherwise, go get a place holder like Alex Smith or Matt Flynn (I just threw up in my mouth a little) and then take a flier on a QB in the mid to late rounds. I know EJ Manuel will be the new flavor of the month because of his performance in the game, but he needs a lot of work and I hate to use the #34 pick on a QB that probably wouldn’t be able to compete for a starting job his rookie year. I just worry about turning the keys to the offense over to the 4th or 5th best QB in a weak QB class.

RUNNING BACKS:

The 2013 running back class lacks elite first round talent. So there wasn’t a lot of focus on the backs that were in Mobile this week. That having been said, there were three backs that made a very good impression this week. In no particular order:

Johnathan Franklin – UCLA – 5’10″ 201 lbs
Mike Gillislee – Florida – 5’11″ 207 lbs
Stepfan Taylor – Stanford – 5’9″ 216 lbs

All three of these backs were seen as mid round picks prior to the Senior Bowl, but their strong performances may put them in competition for the #3 RB spot in the draft behind UNC’s Giovani Bernard and Alabama’s Eddie Lacy.

The fact that Kenjon Barner of Oregon was the biggest name RB at the Senior Bowl, but was not one of the top three backs that people were talking about probably isn’t good for his draft stock. Also, Robbie Rouse of Fresno State, though explosive, measured under 5’6″ tall and got destroyed during blitz pick up drills. He isn’t big enough to be an every down back and if he can’t handle blitzing LBs then it will be hard for him to see the field as a third down back either.

KC Outlook:

If KC doesn’t re-sign Peyton Hillis, they will need to find a #2 RB to spell Jamaal Charles with. I think given that they have greater areas of need and the lack of elite runners in this draft that the earliest they would look at a RB would be the 3rd round. There is a good chance that a couple of those backs listed (or all three) could be available in the third and one or two may even still be an option in the 4th. If so, there is a possibility that one of those guys could fill the role of JC’s primary back up. So keep an eye on those three (Franklin, Gillislee, and Taylor) at the combine.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

If I had to pick a position group that had the best week during Senior Bowl practices it might have been the WRs. There were four WRs that seemed to drastically help their draft status during the week. All four were listed as standouts by multiple sources. Again, in no particular order:

Marquise Goodwin – Texas – 5’9″ 179 lbs
Chris Harper – Kansas State – 6’1″ 228 lbs
Quinton Patton – Louisiana Tech – 6’0″ 202 lbs
Markus Wheaton – Oregon State – 5’11″ 183 lbs

You’ll get differing opinions from different sources, but the general consensus seems to be that Goodwin and Wheaton would make great slot WRs and Harper and Patton would be solid #2 WRs for most teams (some think Wheaton could be a #2 as well). On the down side, Texas A&M WR Ryan Swope looked outclassed by the guys listed above before he had to drop out due to injury and is probably dropping down draft boards. Former Michigan QB turned WR Denard Robinson didn’t look very good at WR in Mobile and clearly needs a LOT of coaching before he can play that position at the NFL level. He still possesses explosive play making ability so someone will take that shot on him. For what it’s worth, Robinson had the biggest hands of any WR prospect despite measuring in at only 5’10″ and 196 lbs.

KC Outlook:

I think this draft sets up really well for KC to get some WR help in the 2nd or 3rd round. When John Dorsey was in GB they were able to find guys like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and Randall Cobb in a similar range. There are several WR draft prospects that could rank as the “best player available” for KC in those rounds. Of the guys at the Senior Bowl, if Patton (probably not likely after his great week) or Harper were on the board in round 3, I think KC might have to take a good look at them.

TIGHT ENDS:

With the two first round talent TEs both being juniors, there wasn’t a lot of talk about the TEs at the Senior Bowl. I don’t know that a single TE there will be drafted before the 3rd round. However, there were three TEs that showed the size/strength to be an effective blocker and enough athleticism to contribute in the passing game as well.

Nick Kasa – Colorado – 6’5″ 271 lbs
Vance McDonald – Rice – 6’2″ 262 lbs
Michael Williams – Alabama – 6’5″ 269 lbs

I wouldn’t say any of these three were “stars” during the week of practice, but I think all three showed enough upside to warrant a mid round pick in April.

KC Outlook:

If both Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss could be relied upon to stay healthy then KC would be in good shape at TE. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. Moeaki has a lengthy injury history dating back to college and there is some concern that Boss’s concussion issues could cause him to retire. You add to that the fact that the TE position is an important part of Andy Reid’s West Coast Offense and it seems that KC may need to add a quality option at TE this offseason. Given the ability of the three guys mentioned above to contribute both as a blocker and pass catcher I think any of the three could be an option for KC in the mid rounds.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

If the WRs weren’t the most impressive group at the Senior Bowl, it would be because the offensive linemen beat them out. It’s not that the offensive line had a huge number of guys generating buzz, but possibly the two guys that impressed the most the entire week were both offensive tackles.

Eric Fisher – Central Michigan – 6’7″ 305 lbs
Lane Johnson – Oklahoma – 6’6″ – 302 lbs

Entering the week, Fisher was seen as a mid to late 1st round pick and Johnson a borderline first round guy. After just a few practices the two are now both viewed as guys that will likely go in the top 15 picks. No one else on the offensive line generated anywhere near as much buzz as those two, but there were several other guys that did well for themselves.

DJ Fluker – Alabama – 6’5″ 355 lbs
David Quessenberry – San Jose St. – 6’5″ 294 lbs
Brian Schwenke – California – 6’3″ 307 lbs
Larry Warford – Kentucky – 6’3″ 333 lbs

Fluker is a massive RT prospect. He isn’t the world’s best pass protector, but his long arms, freakish 87″ wingspan, and impressive size make his a potential mauler in the run game. Teams looking for a RT that can step in on day one will likely target Fluker. Quessenberry played OT in college but will need to add some bulk in the NFL. The real selling point on Quessenberry is that not only does he show some long term upside, he’s versatile enough to play multiple spots on the line so he would have great value as a back up while he was developing. Schwenke did well enough for himself that he may even challenge to be the 2nd C off the board after Alabama’s Barrett Jones. Finally, Warford quietly lived up to his reputation for being a mauler on the inside. He will likely be the #3 G in the draft behind Alabama’s Chance Warmack and UNC’s Jonathan Cooper.

Unfortunately, there were also some linemen that hurt their draft stock as well. Notre Dame center Braxton Cave was repeatedly dominated by the interior defensive linemen. Wisconsin OT Ricky Wagner struggled a lot with pass protection. Virginia OT Oday Aboushi disappointed some scouts with how he looked in practice during most of the week. Syracuse OT Justin Pugh, although looking solid at times, measured in with very short arms, to the extent that many think he will have to move inside to G and which could cause him to slide come April. Similarly, Kyle Long of Oregon measured a little short in the arms as well. He missed several practices with an illness, but did play in the game (and did pretty well).

KC Outlook:

With Fisher and Johnson moving into solid first round range, Fluker being strictly a RT, and the other OT prospects (Aboushi, Pugh, and Long) sliding a little bit, it appears that if Kansas City doesn’t re-sign Brandan Albert that their only option of drafting a starting LT may be at the #1 overall pick. I don’t like that idea, but it doesn’t appear there will be anyone available at #34 that should start at LT as a rookie. Of the other prospects that played well, I think Quessenberry and Schwenke could be mid round options to add depth to the interior of the offensive line.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN:

Ideally I would have split this into defensive linemen and linebackers, but there are two problems with that. First there’s the question of where do you put the DE/OLB pass rushers that could be considered either depending on the system a team runs. Second, if you put the pass rushers with the defensive line then there really wasn’t much to talk about in terms of LBs at the Senior Bowl. The top inside LB in Mobile was Alabama’s Nico Johnson, but he failed to impress during the week. In the entire front seven there were really only two guys that really improved their draft stock.

Datone Jones – DE – UCLA – 6’4″ 280 lbs
Brandon Williams – NT – Missouri Southern – 6’2″ 341 lbs

Jones was a physical specimen and terror on the field. He stopped the run well and was able to put pressure on the QB. I think Jones would be perfect as an attacking style 3-4 DE. Jones did so well that some are speculating that he may have jumped from a 2-3 round pick all the way up into the mid to late first round. Brandon Williams is a NT. A strong, stout, and surprisingly athletic one at that. Williams was an unknown to many before the Senior Bowl, but teams looking for a true NT for the center of their 3-4 may definitely target Williams.

Some of the biggest names in the front seven in Mobile had mixed reviews. BYU’s Ezekiel Ansah and SMU’s Margus Hunt both proved to be extreme physical specimens, but were very raw and in need of coaching out on the practice field. DTs John Jenkins from Georgia and Sylvester Williams from North Carolina flashed big time talent but would also disappear for stretches. Both of these two were already considered 1st round guys. They didn’t really hurt their stock, but I don’t know that they helped it either. Outside pass rusher Alex Okafor from Texas was much the same. He showed some explosion getting around the edge, but when the OTs got their hands on him he was often taken out of the play.

KC Outlook:

Early in the week I was excited about what I was hearing about Jones. However, as the week went on the reports were so good that it appears he may not be available when the Chiefs pick at #34. If he were to be there I think he could be exactly the kind of player that our DL has been lacking. A relentless motor type that is strong enough to stop the run and athletic enough to put pressure on the QB. At ILB KC could still target Nico Johnson, but it looks like he would strictly be a 2 down LB and would need to come off the field on clear passing downs. The only other ILB prospect from the Senior Bowl that KC may want to consider would be FSU’s Vince Williams who played well in the game itself.

DEFENSIVE BACKS:

The defensive backs were another group that had a strong showing during Senior Bowl practices. There were six defensive backs that seemed to help themselves the most, including several coming from smaller programs.

Robert Alford – CB – Southeast Louisiana – 5’10″ 186 lbs
Jonathan Cyprion – S – Florida International – 6’0″ 209 lbs
Leon McFadden – CB – San Diego State – 5’10″ 193 lbs
Jordan Poyer – CB – Oregon State – 6’0″ 182 lbs
Desmond Trufant – CB – Washington – 5’11″ 190 lbs
B.W. Webb – CB – William & Mary – 5’10″ 183

In terms of the CBs, Poyer and Trufant are probably in the top 5 at the position now while Alford, McFadden, and Webb proved themselves to be solid prospects that could go in rounds 3-5. Jonathan Cyprion earned very high praises from every single report coming out of Mobile. He’s probably one of the players that helped himself the most. Cyprion reportedly went 100% on every snap in practice, was very physical, and also showed some good coverage ability. He went from being a virtual unknown to many to a guy that could see his name called on day 2 of the draft.

KC Outlook:

I would be happy if KC ended up with any of the six players listed above. Trufant and Poyer could probably start as rookies, but KC would probably have to jump on one of them in the 2nd round after their strong showing in Mobile. The other three corners could be had later in the draft. They all three have starter upside but would probably need some time to develop. I’m really interested in Cyprion. If he was available in round 3 it would be a solid pick for KC. The reason I like it is because I think a Cyprion/Berry pairing would give the Chiefs a lot of options. Both are physical enough to play up in run support and athletic enough to drop into coverage.

THE GAME ITSELF:

Some of you may not agree with this, but as I mentioned before the game really doesn’t have much impact on a prospect’s draft status. If it did, the majority of NFL personnel wouldn’t be flying out of Mobile on Thursday. That said, I do want to address a few things. I’ll start with the QBs again. For the people saying that there isn’t a great QB in this draft class, the performances of guys that have been mocked in the first round like Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib didn’t exactly prove the naysayers wrong. Wilson in particular was disappointing for me. Yes, they are playing in a system that is new, with WRs that are new, but the defense isn’t exactly throwing a true NFL caliber attack at them either. At this point I feel like Geno Smith is KC’s only real hope for getting a QB at the #1 pick.

Obviously, EJ Manuel was the star of the show. His TD pass to Michael Williams was beautiful. He probably helped his draft stock more than any other QB prospect. As I mentioned above, I’m guessing that someone will fall in love with his upside and take him pretty high for a guy who is still so raw. The other thing he has going for himself is that he best fits the current trend of having a read-option QB out of all the QBs in this draft class. That having been said, I don’t think anyone should get SO excited about one good Senior Bowl performance that they start talking about Manuel as a QB that should be drafted to play right away as a rookie. Remember, guys like Charlie Frye and Pat White were Senior Bowl MVPs too. If you look at San Francisco’s handling of Colin Kaepernick, I think a similar timetable would be the earliest Manuel would be ready to play.

The other interesting player to me coming off the game itself is Ezekiel Ansah. Ansah started the week by impressing everyone at the weigh-in with how physically impressive he is. Then he followed that up with several days of very unimpressive practice where the general consensus was that this guy needed a TON of coaching. Then he shows up to the game itself and looks like arguably the most talented player on the field. There is no doubt whatsoever that Ansah has the sheer athleticism to make a major impact. The question is this, is Ansah another Jason Pierre-Paul that just needs some NFL coaching and he’ll turn into one of the better players in the league, or a Vernon Gholston where he never is able to translate his physical prowess into results on the field? I’m leaning towards the Pierre-Paul side, but I think there is enough questions to keep him from going in the top 10 where his physical talents may warrant.

Other players that got multiple praises for their performance in the game include Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Mike Gillislee, Sylvester Williams, Purdue DT Kawann Short, Vince Williams, and Robert Alford who played good coverage, racked up 5 tackles, and started the game off with an 88 yard kickoff return that set up the South’s opening TD.

Overall, it was an interesting week for draft die-hards like myself. If you can’t get enough draft talk and info I highly recommend following the guys I listed above as the sources for this post. I don’t agree with 100% of any of their takes, but when you take in all of their opinions combined you can usually get an idea for where prospects stand. Next stop, the combine.

Check out my other draft related posts:

2013 NFL Draft Big Board And The Kansas City Chiefs

Video: Geno Smith Is Worthy Of The #1 Pick

Chiefs First Round QB Quiz: Name That QB

Mike Glennon: A Possible “Plan B” For Chiefs QB

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

End The Drought, Draft Geno Smith Now! PART II

To read Part I, go here.

In PART I of “End The Drought, Draft Geno Smith Now!” we covered the Drought  Sequence, the Fan-dalism outlining the fans vs. John Dorsey and Andy Reid’s roles, the Coach’s Reproach and the Pioneers who have gone before to see that a QB is taken in the first round.

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Three Important Factors

There are three important factors driving the movement to end the drought and draft Mr. Smith now:

1. END THE DROUGHT- The drought must end ASAP. Not next year. Not in the second round of the draft this year, or any other round for that matter. Not in free agency where we already know what the choices will be and there is no franchise player there to be had. I’m sure that Reid and Dorsey can’t fully grasp how tired and wasted Chiefs fans are of one coach or GM after another waltzing into KC and trying to be tricky: making the reshaping of the roster all about themselves, by attempting to take lesser clay and molding it into their own da Vinci masterpiece. There is not a 6th rounder like Tom Brady just waiting around every corner of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, or 7th rounds of the draft. Do the right thing by taking the best QB in this draft, immediately.

2. NO PREMIERE PROSPECT- After personally researching the top ten NFL draft prospects for the 2013 draft, no one is head and shoulders above anyone else. Period. No question in my mind. I’m convinced that there’s not one of them who stands out over all of the others. Not one. All of them have… chinks in the armour.

To begin with, consider what an evaluator must do: they have to come up with a way to say that this OLB prospect is better than that LT prospect (or could you ever really compare a long snapper to a CB?). Can you see the dilemma? You really can’t do it. One position, in many cases can’t be compared to another. Still, one principle every evaluator agrees upon is: the QB position is the most important position on the field.

Still, let’s look at a few top prospects.

Take LT Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M. His run blocking lags behind his pass blocking. His pass blocking is pretty good, but remember he was blocking for a Heisman Trophy winner, the elusive and quick release artist: Johnny Football (Manziel). So, if the Chiefs take a “good” LT but still don’t have an elusive and quick-release QB of their own, do you think Joeckel will still look as good? Ask Jamaal Charles if he wants an average rookie LT blocking for him in the running game next year. Plus, do you really want to take Joeckel when Branden Albert ranks 5th in the league in Pass Blocking Efficiency? Joeckel may never reach that level of proficiency and how do you say no to an excellent LT who still wants to be part of this team? If the Chiefs draft Joeckel first it will only be because of financial considerations because that move will not make the Chiefs a better team. That’s the primary reason you have to doubt that Hunt, Reid & Dorsey (HRD) would make Joeckel their choice.

(more…)

End The Drought, Draft Geno Smith Now!  PART I

PART II will post Thursday at noon eastern 11 central, PART III, Friday, 10 eastern 9 central.

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As time goes by, one thing has become perfectly apparent: there is not a clear cut number one pick in the 2013 NFL draft. However, this too, is also clear: the Kansas City Chiefs have not drafted a first round quarterback since they took Todd Blackledge with the 7th pick in the 1983 NFL draft. So, what’s the answer?

End the drought, draft Geno Smith now.

Sound irrational? Not really. Not at all.

In the Kansas City Chiefs space-time continuum there are several truths that have taken hold of the organization and one of those is: the Chiefs are one of the scant few (2) teams, who have not selected a QB of any kind (franchise or otherwise) in the first round of the draft for more than three decades.

The Drought Sequence

The chart below shows all of the QBs taken in the first round by their respective teams with the year they were taken posted in red.

68 QBs have been taken in the first round since the beginning of the 1983 NFL draft. The only team with a longer first round QB drought than the Chiefs? The New Orleans Saints. The Saints haven’t taken a QB in the round one since they choose Dave Wilson with the last pick in the first round of the 1981 draft (back when the supplemental draft came at the end of round one). However, I don’t believe the Saints are interested in a QB any time soon.

The modern day Chiefs haven’t employed a 1st round franchise caliber QB since Joe cool fashioned a Chiefs uni for 25 regular season games in the early 90’s. Yes, Trent Green was good but, not a franchise keeper who was around long enough to impact the organization for a decade or more like many top flight QBs.

This is also the reason that everyone, and I mean everyone, who talks Chiefs lore, mentions Len Dawson and only Len Dawson, when it comes to home grown QB cooking in Kansas City since the birth of the franchise in 1960 (I hope I’m not bursting any bubbles here but, the Chiefs didn’t draft Lenny, that would be the Steelers). So very many franchises have a long lineage of QBs to bring to the parade. The Chiefs have Len Dawson and a leftover bag of nuts.

The Fandalsim

This is not about Andy Reid. This is about Kansas City and the identity of our beloved mid-western values which we associate so closely with the team. Especially the mid-west value: not losing a sense of what is genuinely important. I hope Mr. Reid understands that the Hunt family owned tradition, which also bears the monogram of this fair city’s name, is dearly and genuinely important to us.

This is not about John Dorsey. It’s about about the history of this franchise and the immediate future of the team. The only way to resolve this conflict between the ghosts of GMs past and the ghosts of GMs future, is for the GM of the present to take the Best QB Available (BQBA). That would be Geno Smith.

Many fans are happy about the Andy Reid hire. However, if he can’t produce a new and formidable QB forthwith… he might as well be named Herman Edwards or Todd Haley.

John Dorsey might be in this for the long haul, the marathon, as he put it at his first Monday presser, but, unless Chiefs fans see a potential franchise QB in place, by August 1st, 2013, then the team might as well call in another 2-14 record for next season too because the KC Chiefs faithful have already seen, and heard, it all before. Consequently, the disappointment and discontent will carry over from previous years and previous GMs into next year and onto this GM. I hope John Dorsey gets that.

K.C. fans are not only enervated (the opposite of energized) by the national sports media’s endless droning on and on about this organization’s not taking a QB in the first round for three eternal decades but, the hyped up hopeless hoopla of having one abysmal QB after another trotted out onto the Arrowhead turf for yet another immortal drubbing. This paradigm (model, pattern) has worn perilously thin for a growing number of Chiefs fans who are considering giving up on the team. For the first time in my years of following and covering the Chiefs, I am hearing fans say, “I’m out… if they keep this up.”

The Coach’s Reproach

Past coaches and GMs were plenty aware of this too… and please notice, none of them are still around. On Thursday, January 17th, ex-Chiefs coach Herman Edwards had the following conversation in a WHB 810 interview,

“Edwards: I love Matt Ryan, I really do. We were maybe one pick away from (making) him a Chief… but, anyway, it’s another story. Interviewer: That was a coin toss year (08) wasn’t it? Edwards: (chuckles) Yea, yea, yea, boy.  Don’t even go there.”

It almost sounds as if Edwards thinks he’d still be coaching in KC… if that had happened.

Dick Vermeil was so aware of the Chiefs first-round-franchise-QB-abstinence that he traded away 1st, 2nd and 5th round picks in 2001 to get 31 year old QB Trent Green (I would like to take this moment for a public service announcement: Geno Smith is 22). Now, Green was a very good QB. His 5 ½ year career with the Chiefs was solid but… was it worth all the picks used to get him? He didn’t lead the Chiefs to even one playoff win. Chiefs fans haven’t seen a playoff win now for nearly 20 years.

Andy Reid and John Dorsey may like… even love… Kansas City and the legacy of this franchise. However, one must question whether or not they can ever fully comprehend the pain and suffering that devoted Chiefs admirers have endured for lo, these many years. For Chiefs-partial patrons every autumn Sunday has become a nightmarish Groundhog Day all over again replete with the evils of no first round QB and… and if not for the hope that a king would come in the first round on draft day… all would appear to be lost. Losing + losing ≠ winning.

We can only hope new leadership doesn’t expect fans to pledge their Chiefs allegiance without a King for the Kingdom. We are not pawns to be deployed upon the season ticket holder game board of life (however, here’s your Season Ticket Holder Signing Bonus). Don’t you hope that during this off season that the Chiefs will do something that has a bit more grandeur with the roster than offering micro-monetary incentives to increase fan attendance at Arrowhead?

The greatest incentive of all, of course, would be to end this drought by drafting top rated Geno Smith. It begs the question: why wouldn’t the Chiefs want to make the most influential decision they could make in the past thirty years when they have the opportunity to do just that? You would hope Dorsey and Reid would grasp the historical significance to this organization. If not, their stay here may be shorter than Mr. Pioli’s.

The Pioneers

In 2004, many analysts had Robert Gallery going before Eli Manning in the pre-draft days. There was tons of speculation about who the number one pick would be in 2005 when Alex Smith went first and Aaron Rodgers fell to #24. Everyone was shocked, including moi, when Super-Mario went ahead of Reggie-snake-in-the-Bush. Neither Cam Newton nor Sam Bradford was a lock to go number one at this same stage in the game so let’s not get our panties in a bunch just because of a few misguided analysts who haven’t seen the light about Geno yet.

Keep in mind that Andrew Luck was not the consensus best QB in last year’s draft. There were plenty of RGIII dissenters, including yours truly. Yes, Andrew and Robert were the obvious standouts among the 2012 class prospects and that’s the appropriate reason they should have gone where they went: 1 and 2.

In PART II tomorrow, you’ll find the 3 important factors in this movement to get GS drafted #1 by the Chiefs including an evaluation of Luke Joeckel, Jarvis Jones, and Star Lotulelei with the reason why Geno is a better choice than any of those prospects. See you then.

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The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a 2-14 season. They have a new head coach, a new general manager, and the first pick in the 2013 NFL draft. Given these circumstances, it’s understandable that KC fans have already put the 2012 season in the rear view mirror and are 100% focused on the offseason, especially the NFL draft. In fact, I would wager that most of you reading this are more interested in the upcoming Senior Bowl than you are in the Super Bowl match up of San Francisco and Baltimore.

The two biggest questions that most Chiefs fans have for Andy Reid and John Dorsey are intertwined. What will they do with the #1 overall pick and who are they going to get to play quarterback? There is a large number of KC fans (like myself) that are convinced that they should answer both questions at once by drafting Geno Smith #1 overall. However, others are not convinced that Smith is a player that warrants that high of selection. The real question then becomes what Reid and Dorsey think of Smith and the other players at the top of the 2013 draft. Both men have gone on record as saying they believe in taking the best player available and not reaching for a player because of positional need.

So these two key questions will ultimately be answered by how Reid and Dorsey construct their “Big Board” for the draft. No one knows what this big board will look like, but I thought for this week’s post I would try to give you a look at what others are saying in terms of how this draft class is lining up. I looked at 10 different big boards and then averaged them out to try and come up with a pre-Senior Bowl, pre-combine, master big board for this April’s draft. The rankings I used are from ESPN’s Scout’s Inc, CBS’s Rob Rang, our own Merlin’s DraftTek, WalterFootball, NFL Draft Countdown, NFL.com’s Gil Brandt, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, SB Nation, NEPatriotsDraft.com, and fftoolbox.com.

It’s not a perfect system since these lists ranged in length from 25-100 so not every prospect was rated on each list, but it still gives us a general consensus to see where prospects rank currently. Remember, this is not the order players are predicted to be drafted in, but a list of who these sources think are the best players regardless of position and team draft needs. Here are the top 49 players that received first round rankings from at least one of the sources listed above.

1. Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M
2. Star Lotulelei – DT – Utah
3. Bjoern Werner – DE/OLB – Florida St.
4. Jarvis Jones – OLB – Georgia
5. Damontre Moore – DE/OLB – Texas A&M
6. Chance Warmack – G – Alabama
7. Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama
8. Manti Te’o – ILB – Notre Dame
9. Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU
10. Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia
11. Johnathan Hankins – DT – Ohio St.
12. Dion Jordan – DE/OLB – Oregon
13. Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri
14. Keenan Allen – WR – California
15. Jonathan Cooper – G – North Carolina
16. Ezekiel Ansah – DE – BYU
17. Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan
18. Johnathan Banks – CB – Mississippi St.
19. Alec Ogletree – ILB – Georgia
20. Sam Montgomery – DE/OLB – LSU
21. Tyler Eifert – TE – Notre Dame
22. Kenny Vaccaro – S – Texas
23. Johnathan Jenkins – DT – Georgia
24. Jesse Williams – DT – Alabama
25. Matt Barkley – QB – USC
26. Barrett Jones – OL – Alabama
27. Tavon Austin – WR – West Virginia
28. Shariff Floyd – DT – Florida
29. Tyler Wilson – QB – Arkansas
30. Alex Okafor – DE/OLB – Texas
31. Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford
32. Cordarrelle Patterson – WR – Tennessee
33. Giovani Bernard – RB – North Carolina
34. Terrance Williams – WR – Baylor
35. DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson
36. Xavier Rhodes – CB – Florida St.
37. DJ Fluker – OT – Alabama
38. Sylvester Williams – DT – North Carolina
39. Matt Elam – S – Florida
40. Eric Reid – S – LSU
41. Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee
42. Robert Woods – WR – USC
43. Kawann Short – DT – Purdue
44. Arthur Brown – LB – Kansas St.
45. Kevin Minter – ILB – LSU
46. Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma
47. David Amerson – CB – NC State
48. Tony Jefferson – S – Oklahoma
49. Corey Lemonier – DE/OLB – Auburn

I can pretty much promise you that by the time the Senior Bowl, combine, and private work outs are over the Chiefs own big board will look quite a bit different from this list. However, the elite prospects at the very top of the first round don’t usually come out of nowhere. So I think it’s probably safe to say that the first overall pick is someone in the top 10 of this list. So let’s look at those 10 guys through “Chiefs colored glasses”.

Of the top 10 prospects on this list four of them are outside pass-rushers that would play OLB in KC’s 3-4 defense. The Chiefs currently have both of those spots filled with above average NFL starters in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. I know they say they’ll take the best player available, but unless Reid and Dorsey plan on trading Tamba I think one of these pass rushers would have to grade out SO MUCH better than the other top prospects in order for a team with so many areas to upgrade to take a player at one of the few places they are currently set. So for the time being I am taking Werner, Jones, Moore, and Mingo off the table for KC’s #1 pick.

Next, despite Warmack being hailed as the best guard prospect to enter the draft in ages, I can’t see any team taking a guard first overall. Everyone raved about David DeCastro last season too and he was drafted 24th. Is Warmack SO much better than DeCastro that he should go 23 spots higher? I don’t think so. So I am taking Warmack off the list of possible picks for KC at first overall as well.

Next, between his poor play against an elite offensive line in the national championship game and the crazy dead girlfriend hoax drama I can’t see Kansas City even entertaining the idea of taking Te’o first overall now. Not to mention the fact that most believe that ILB isn’t a position that makes enough impact to justify drafting one that high, even if there wasn’t other questions about him.

So that leaves us with only 4 of the top 10 prospects left for consideration. Let’s address these four one at a time. I’ll start with Alabama CB Dee Milliner.

Milliner is the consensus best CB in this draft. He’s got good size at 6’1″ and 199 lbs. He’s a very physical corner and is an excellent tackler. His coverage skills are very good as well. That having been said, Milliner isn’t a ball hawk as he’s only totaled 2 INTs in each of his past 2 seasons at Alabama. His speed is good enough for the NFL, but he’s not a burner. I think Milliner is pretty much a lock to go in the top 10 picks, but his lack of big play ability would make him a hard sell for #1 overall. Taking Milliner there would be similar to taking Geno Smith #1 overall in that he’s the best player at his position, but may not rate out as high as guys like Joeckel and Lotulelei who most feel warrant the first overall pick. If Reid and Dorsey’s “best player available” mantra literally translates to the highest rated player on their board, then I don’t think it will be Milliner and if they are going to reach a few spots based on positional need it makes more sense to do it for a QB where the benefits of the pick working out are greater. I do think Milliner would make a lot of sense if KC was able to trade back a few spots but was still drafting in the top 10.

So, to sum up my thoughts on Milliner, great player, fits a need, probably won’t be the #1 overall pick, but is a candidate for KC if they trade back a few spots.

Next up, my man Geno Smith. I’m not objective here. I made a 14 minute long video that explained why he should be the #1 pick. There’s a link at the bottom of this post if you haven’t seen it and would like to check it out. Here’s my thought on if the Chiefs will actually take him. If they have Geno rated as a top 10 player as he is in these composite rankings, I think they take him. I know they are saying “best player available”, but if you have no QB and the best QB in the draft is one of the 10 best players available, you take him. QB is just that important, and I think Reid and Dorsey know that. If Geno is more like the 15-25th player on their board, I think they’ll pass, take one of these other players, and take a QB in the 2nd round. I honestly believe Geno will be the pick. I think he is the QB that impresses the most at the combine and workouts and Reid starts off in KC like he did with McNabb in Philly.

However, if I’m wrong then I think the pick is most likely one of the top two guys on these consensus rankings, Luke Joeckel or Star Lotulelei. Let’s start with Joeckel.

Luke Joekel is being hyped as the best LT prospect since Jake Long (who is also the last OT to go first overall). He is currently the consensus “best player available”, so given what Reid and Dorsey have said so far I think Joeckel has to be considered a strong candidate for #1 overall. I’ll be honest, I haven’t watched much of Joeckel, but several of the prospect evaluators that I respect the most seem very high on him and they would know better than I.

My take on Joeckel: If the Chiefs really don’t like any of the QBs that much I’ll be fine with the Joeckel pick, but not excited. Mainly because a great LT doesn’t assure you any playoff success. If you have a good QB to protect then they are great. If you have a mediocre QB then there is only so much a LT can do. Personally, I’d rather they resign Branden Albert and draft an impact player elsewhere (preferably QB).

Finally let’s talk about Star Lotulelei.

Most of you are going to hate what I am about to say. I think there is a strong chance that Lotulelei could be KC’s pick at #1 overall. I actually think that Lotulelei is a more likely pick than Joeckel given that KC has an opportunity to re-sign Albert. I know the idea of taking ANOTHER defensive lineman in the first round will make people want to pull their hair out, but Lotulelei is the real deal. I have a feeling that he may light up the combine similar to what Dontari Poe did last year with the difference being that he has the impressive game film to back it up. Last year people said that Poe’s size/strength/speed gave him the upside of a Haloti Ngata. Well, Star Lotulelei actually looks like Ngata on film, it’s impressive.

If KC doesn’t see a QB they like and resign Albert, I think Star is the pick. If Dontari Poe and Lotulelei both lived up to their freakishly high ceilings KC could have the most fearsome defensive front that the NFL has seen in a long time. They could pair them up with either Tyson Jackson (with a renegotiated contract) or a re-signed Ropati Pitoitua. I know a lot of KC fans wouldn’t like this pick, but in my opinion if we stay at #1 it would have the second biggest impact after taking a QB.

I don’t think we’ll have to wait until April 25th to know what KC is going to do. I think what they do with Albert, Dorsey, Jackson, Pitoitua, and possible QBs that they could bring in will give us a good idea of which of these prospects they are targeting.

For example:

If KC re-signs Albert, I think you can rule out Luke Joeckel (NOTICE: Please save your “they should move Albert to guard” comments, that’s NEVER going to happen, EVER).

If they restructure Tyson Jackson and re-sign either Dorsey or Pitoitua (I’m guessing Pitoitua since he’ll be cheaper and played for the Jets while Sutton was there) then I don’t think Lotulelei will be the pick.

If they trade for a Nick Foles, Matt Flynn, or Alex Smith then I don’t think they’ll go with a QB first overall.

So watch what the Chiefs do over the next month because I think it may just tip their hand on what they are planning to do with the first pick.

One final thought relating to my composite big board: If KC did take a QB first overall and didn’t have to draft one in the 2nd round, it appears that there might be some very good WRs and DBs that rate out right in the area where KC will be picking. Players like Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, Xavier Rhodes, and Eric Reid would all be great picks for KC in the 2nd round.

Regardless of what KC does make sure you tune in here to AA where we’ll keep you up to date on all the latest draft and free agency news.

Check out my other draft related posts:

Video: Geno Smith Is Worthy Of The #1 Pick

Chiefs First Round QB Quiz: Name That QB

Mike Glennon: A Possible “Plan B” For Chiefs QB

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

In the past few years there have been a goodly number of Tidey boys taken high in the NFL draft and when they arrive at the big boy’s barbeque, they usually bring their own fireworks.

After Alabama’s BSC win over the University of Texas following the 2009 football season, LB Rolando McClain was selected 8th overall by the Oakland Raiders. However, things really didn’t begin to heat up for Saban’s slew of slayers, who would be selected in early draft rounds, until the following year.

That next BCS championship was won by, Cam Newton led, Auburn. Following the conclusion of the 2010 season DT Marcell Dareus (#3), WR Julio Jones (#6), OT James Carpenter (#25) and Mark Ingram (#28) were all taken in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft.

(more…)

What an amazing weekend of football. There were multiple times that I found myself sitting on the edge of my seat. I kept thinking to myself “How amazing would this be if it was the Chiefs that were involved in a playoff game like this?!?!” With the Chiefs now having their new head coach and general manager in place they have filled two of the three critical spots that needed to be addressed this offseason: general manager, head coach, and quarterback. We won’t know for sure if the hires of Andy Reid and John Dorsey will bring about the desired results for a while, but on paper they look good. Reid is a proven winner that consistently took the Eagles to the playoffs, winning more playoff games during his 14 years in Philly than KC has in the history of it’s franchise. John Dorsey was in charge of college scouting for a team that built a Super Bowl winner almost entirely through the draft. It appears that Clark Hunt did his part to fill the first two sports with quality hires. That takes us to the quarterback position.

The Chiefs have the #1 overall pick in this April’s draft. Normally that would be great news for a team starving for a franchise QB. However, the general consensus is that there isn’t a QB worth taking this year. The “experts” seem to universally agree that KC should wait to take a QB until the 2nd round. This logic seems faulty to me. If it is a weak QB class, why would you want the 3rd or 4th best QB in that class? Even if the best QB in the class isn’t Andrew Luck or RG3, if he is still clearly the best QB in the class you have to get him. The QB position is just too vital to a team’s success to pass and hope that you hit on a rare 2nd round franchise QB.

So the question then becomes is there one QB in this class that is clearly the best of the group? I have watched a lot of games and footage of Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, and Mike Glennon and I feel like one of them is clearly the best of the group.

Geno Smith is that QB.

I don’t expect you to just take my word for it. I’ve put together a video of Geno Smith highlights to make my case. You won’t find any screen passes or quick slants where the WR does all the work in this video. What you will see is multiple examples of Smith making throws that I think translate to being a good NFL QB. All of these highlights are from this past 2012 season. So when you see all of these throws, think about how many throws of this caliber you have seen from Kansas City QB’s since Trent Green and the Dick Vermeil years. Geno Smith literally racked up more impressive highlight throws in one season than KC has had under the past three head coaches.

I keep hearing how Geno Smith “has bust written all over him”. I’d like anyone that feels that way to watch this video and then explain to me why that is.

There’s not much else for me to say that wasn’t in the video. For me the first pick is Geno Smith or bust. Also, Stedman Bailey (#3) is REALLY underrated nationally as a WR prospect. The guy has been playing with Geno since HS and the two seem to always be on the same page. With his speed, hands, route running, and history with Geno I’d be fine if they took him at the top of the 2nd round and kept them together.

If you want more on Geno Smith here are some other excellent posts:

Geno Smith: QBeast? by AA’s Ladner Morse

Geno Smith: Performance In Perspective by AA’s Nathan Bramwell

The Case For Geno Smith by AP’s BJ Kissel

Geno Smith: A Tale In Accuracy by AP’s JayhawksNChiefs

If after watching my video and reading those four posts you still don’t have any interest in taking Geno Smith #1 overall I’d love to hear why. Feel free to let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading (and watching) and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

One long month ago I went on record as saying that the Chiefs would be best served by selecting ILB Manti’ Te’o from Notre Dame number one overall. Since then the Chiefs have hired QB Merlin Andy Reid and… the college national championship game has played out and… I can now see I was wrong. If I was a politician… you wouldn’t want to vote for me.

On Monday when Andy Reid addressed the Kansas City media he made it clear, as clear as any coach is going to get 3 ½ months before the draft, that he’s interested in taking the best player available in the draft. So, it’s up to Geno Smith to show in his off season work that he’s not only a beast but, the best.

Or maybe we should just change our perspective.

A change in perspective can also come through comparing college prospects. Considering the elevated play of the three QBeasts from last year’s draft, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and RGIII, maybe we don’t have the most accurate perspective… yet.

Many have forgotten that in Peyton Manning’s last game, the 1997 Orange Bowl he threw for a measly 131 yards and lead his team to a loss to eventual National Champion Nebraska, 42-17. Also, Nebraska led 28-3 in the fourth quarter so most all of the points for Tennessee came in trash time.

Why bring that up? Because we sometimes get a game or two or three out of perspective with what a player’s actual and natural potential is. In Geno Smith’s case, he had an average (for him) last game of his college career: the Pinstripe Bowl. The Pinstripe Bowl was played in New York on a 20 degree day with snow gusting. Although that didn’t bother Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib and the Orangemen’s methodical  game plan, it was murder for West Virginia’s speedy skill positions players who were obviously minimized by those conditions.

Russell Wilson lost both of his last two bowl games, the Rose bowl, averaging 227 passing yards per game including an interception. Nothing to write home about or make scouts stand up and take notice.

Andrew Luck lost his last college game to the Oklahoma State Cowboys even though Stanford won the time of possession 41+ to 19+. Luck also threw an interception in that one.

In Robert Griffin III’s last season his team, the Baylor Bears, finished 6-3 in conference play. At least his team won their bowl game… over the “highly touted” 7-6 Washington Huskies. 6-3 in conference play wasn’t the best stat on his resume.

Trying to determine whether or not a QB will be a beast in the NFL is not always going to work based upon the last few games they played or the record of the team they played for.

Also, if you’re going to hold a high winning standard up for QBs then you should also do that for other position players like Manti’ Te’o. We’ll have to see if his less than stellar performance in the national championship game against Alabama is going to drop his draft status. In that game, he looked like a boy playing a man’s game.

Since the Chiefs snatched up Andy Reid to be the skipper of their clipper, another question arises: does the performance of an NFL QB depend more upon the stud QB coming out of college or the coach who’s coaching the stud QB? Was Joe Montana the Joe Montana that we know now more because of his skill level or was it Bill Walsh and the system he had in place?

Savvy coaching makes as much a difference as the player does in determining the success of a quarterback. It’s a bit of both but, in many cases, it can be as much as 65% coach (and his system) and 35% QB and his capabilities. Then again, with a player like Aaron Rodgers, it has a lot more to do with “the player.”

In 2012, and in recent years, quarterbacks are coming into the NFL with more “game readiness” than ever before. Look at the trends in quarterbacks coming into the league in the past five seasons:

Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Brandon Weeden, Colin Kaepernick, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, and now RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have all come in and either started their first or second season or have made a positive contribution. Mark Sanchez and Blaine Gabbert were left off this list for poor progress.

Fifteen quarterbacks, and that’s nearly half the starters in the NFL.

Clearly, the process of gradually developing a rookie QB from two to four years before starting is an old-school notion and it’s an outdated concept that’s not in operation in this pass-first-and-ask-questions-later NFL.

Can Geno Smith be as successful as Russell Wilson, RGIII or Andrew Luck in his first season? When the Chiefs new coach starts talking about whether or not he would take Geno Smith first in the draft — if you can “Reid” the between the lines — the answer is the same to both questions.

The performances of these three  QBs from last years draft may have skewed our thinking about how well a QB “has to” perform in their rookie season and you may be more comfortable comparing Geno Smith to the top three QBs in the previous draft, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick. If there was a re-draft all three would likely go in the top ten or even the top five. Each fits the description of franchise QB and I believe Geno Smith can perform at their level.

If the Chiefs draft Geno Smith in April, then there is no reason to not expect that the Chiefs will be in the playoffs next January.

Lofty expectations? I don’t think so. Look at what Geno Smith’s upside is, which is very high. Does he also have some bust potential? Yes but, with the supporting cast of players that Reid should be able to put in place this off season, it would lead you to believe that Geno Smith’s “bust-ability”… if he’s wearing a Reid-red uniform… goes way, way down.

Consider all of the Pro Bowl players, and PB level players, Smith will have surrounding him (btw… Justin Houston deserved to be in the Pro Bowl more than Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers should start getting some PB consideration while Bowe has been there before and will — should he resign — be Smith’s  main hammer).

Evaluations of Geno Smith vary with the weather. Using a scouting priority checklist which includes: Arm Strength, Football IQ, Accuracy, Mobility, Leadership, Toughness, Resume, Maturity, Pedigree, and Hand Size, let’s do some comparisons.

Before getting into that, Alen Dumonjic of The Bleacher Report rated the 32 Strongest Arms in the league last summer and Matt Cassel ranked number 32. So, almost any QB the Chiefs draft is going to be an upgrade in the “most important” category when evaluating a QB.

Arm Strength
If Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco (he’s rated number one by Ron Jaworski) are the standard in today’s NFL then Geno Smith will soon rank right up there perhaps just behind the best. Smith can get the ball down the field to the speediest of receivers and has lots of zip on his passes as well as a phenomenal touch. His deep ball reminds me of Matthew Stafford’s.

Football IQ
No one is like Peyton Manning. Or Tom Brady. They hold their own Mensa meetings for QBs every Sunday but, Geno Smith is intuitive, reads defenses very well and makes good decisions in and out of the pocket. He reminds me of RGIII in college and makes decisions quickly like Griffin as well.

Accuracy
Although accuracy is not rated as the most important category in this system, it is to me and Geno Smith is very accurate. He even has excellent touch on his long balls and Jon Baldwin should be salivating like a salamander to work with him. That’s because Smith will likely make Baldwin’s career. If Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are 10 out of 10 then Smith should come in at least with a solid 8. I’ve seen him hit his receivers right in stride so many times, I found myself wishing the Chiefs QBs could learn that from him: no more “Death-to-Dexter” passes. All  the Chiefs inside receivers should flourish with Gsmith’s throwing to them. His deep ball accuracy is worth mentioning… again.

Mobility
I saw Smith fall down in the end zone on a play in the Pinstripe Bowl and I thought he looked like a completely different QB than earlier in the season. Although he’s not the athlete and runner that RGIII is, he’ll be one of the more mobile QB’s in the league. If RGIII is a 10 then Geno gets a 7.5. Side Note: I don’t believe it’s that good an idea to be rated a “10” in this category anymore. QBs like Vick and RGIII find themselves hurt and on the sidelines too too much because they “think” they can do it all with their legs if they want too. Aaron Rodgers is an 8 in this category and that is probably the perfect score to have. To be escapable without being egotistical.

Leadership
Matt Cassel may show up for summer workouts and gets everyone else to show up too, but, he obviously couldn’t perform otherwise. Geno Smith can be fiery on the sidelines. I saw that fire during his Pinstripe Bowl loss. Some have criticized his outburst but, it seemed totally appropriate to me. I have also seen him interviewed and his personality and approach to communicating is infectious and he’s a personable guy, smart and creative, who will be great to work with. The penultimate leader in today’s NFL is Tom Brady. If Tom Brady is a “10” then Smith comes in at an “8”… with upside. Of course, nothing makes a player look more like a leader than winning.

Toughness
Ben Roethlisberger is one of the toughest rascals around today. It’s also part of the Steeler persona. At 6-3 and 220 Geno Smith is not a fragile toothpick. While I don’t think anyone takes a licking and keeps on ticking like Big Ben, his challenge is a bit like QBs who are mobile: they think they can take on all comers and try to do that too much… then they end up hurt and warming the bench. Geno Smith is big and durable and has some ability to move in the pocket so if Ben is a 10 then Geno is a 7.5 with upside.

Resume
There are actually not many QBs in the league who came out of college with the pedigree and experience that Geno Smith has had.
Player’s name / Cmp / Att / Cmp% / Yrds / TDs / INTs / Rating
Geno  SMITH / 985 / 1,461 / 67.4% / 11,658 / 98 / 21 / 153.7.

Maturity
Geno Smith is no John Kennedy but then again, who is?  Smith’s mother said Geno was in a gifted and talented program in school growing up. He’s always been older than his years. Here’s a video of Smith talking about learning and focus.

Pedigree
Good family. Good school. Good conference. Solid-solid-solid, but nobody’s perfect.

Hand Size
Smith holds the ball just fine. Drew Brees is said to have a small hand size but, he does fine holding onto the ball to. Smith had no fumbles until the Pinstripe Bowl.

To see 8 good video-shorts of his play making ability try “The Case For Geno Smith.” If you haven’t had time to watch Smith play at all this season, this article provide a wonderful series of 5 second mini-flicks highlighting Smith’s finer skills. So, this might be a good place to start.

Is there any one specific statistic that would be the “best” determiner of whether or not a QB is a beast? Passer rating? TDs to Ints? “Wins” belong to the team and coaches, the whole organization. It’s not just championships because Dan Marino was a beast even though he never won the big one. Passing percentage stands out to me. Call it the QBeast Quotient.

Look at it from the opposite point of view. If a QB has a low passing percentage rate, isn’t that the death knell for a QB? Isn’t that what we really pay our QB to do? Of course we also hope some of those end up in the end zone. Of course.

Coaches can often be heard comparing prospects to players who already have a history in the NFL, or other prospects. Alex Brown of OptimumScouting.com wrote a piece called, “Comparing Geno Smith and Robert Griffin III” and says,

In differentiating these two prospects, it’s clear that Geno Smith is following Robert Griffin III’s footsteps in becoming the next hot prospect and potential top 5 overall draft choice. Their production, physical build, arm talent, accuracy, and explosive supporting casts are remarkably similar, but the intriguing aspect of this comparison, is how much further developed Geno Smith appears to be.
With Baylor’s offense, the inverted-veer and zone read game set up a much more potent deep passing game, as they averaged 241 yards rushing through the first 3 games of the 2011 season –that stands in direct contrast to West Virginia’s inconsistent rushing attack that produced 331 yards in week 1 versus Marshall and a meager 25 yards in week 3 versus Maryland.

So why do I throw those numbers at you? Well, to tell the true story behind Robert Griffin III’s 12-yards per pass attempt average and Geno Smith’s 9 yards per pass attempt average. While West Virginia has an explosive offense, it must be noted how special Baylor’s offense was in 2011. In terms of production through the first 3 games of the year, Robert Griffin III wins with his extraordinarily efficient and explosive early season performance. In sum, Smith is deadly in the short-to-intermediate passing game, while Robert Griffin III torched secondaries in 2011 with deep, down the field throws.”

Arrowhead Addict follower Scott Cochran posted the following comparisons after my blog “Clark Hunt Firing On All Cylinders” and wrote:

Geno Smith vs peers, last year’s rookies and HOF college QB career stats that matter

Player’s name / Cmp / Att / Cmp% / Yrds / TDs / INTs / Rating
Geno  SMITH – 985 / 1461 / 67.4% / 11,658 / 98 / 21 / 153.7.
Mi GLENNON – 611 / 1016 / 60.1% / 7,028 / 62 / 28 / 132.9.
Ma BARKLEY – 1001 / 1562 / 64.1% / 12,327 /116 / 48 / 148.7.
Ro GRIFFIN III – 800 / 1192 / 67.1% / 10,366 / 78 / 17 / 158.9.
Andrew LUCK – 713 / 1064 / 67.0% / 9,430 / 82 / 22 / 162.8.
Rus. WILSON – 907 / 1489 / 60.9% / 11,720 /109 / 30 / 147.2.
Tyler WILSON – 593 / 948 / 62.6 % / 7,765 / 52 / 26 / 144.0.

Some HOF QBs and some headed to the HOF
Player’s name / Cmp / Att / Cmp% / Yrds / TDs / INTs / Rating
Pe MANNING – 863 / 1381 / 62.5% / 11,201 / 89 / 33 / 147.1.
TOM BRADY – 443 / 711 / 62.3% / 5,351 / 35 / 19 / 136.4.
Aa RODGER – 424 / 665 / 63.8% / 5,469 / 43 / 13 / 150.3.
Steve YOUNG – 592 / 908 / 65.2% / 7,633 / 56 / 33 / 148.9.
John / ELWAY – 774 / 1246 / 62.1% / 9,344 / 77 / 39 / 139.3.
Philip RIVERS- 1087 /1711 / 63.5% / 13,484 / 95 / 34 / 144.1.

Cochran goes on to say that many are blind to the fact that Geno Smith’s completion percentage is higher than anyone’s on either list. The top three are highlighted.

A more important comparison, which Chiefs fans should be interested in, is the one between Donovan McNabb and Geno Smith. It’s hard to imagine Andy Reid not seeing some Donovan McNabb in Geno Smith. Two mobile QBs with strong, accurate arms.

Player’s name / Cmp / Att / Cmp% / Yrds / TDs / INTs / Rating
Geno  SMITH – 985 / 1,461 / 67.4% / 11,658 / 98 / 21 / 153.7.
Dono McNabb – 562 // 968 // 58.1 // 8,581 // 78 // 27 // 153.

If Andy Reid would draft Donovan McNabb second overall, I see no reason why he wouldn’t draft Geno Smith first. I remember the day Donovan McNabb was drafted and a group of Philly fans booed the choice. However, things worked out alright for McNabb and the Eagles for the next ten years. When this April 25th rolls around, if Geno Smith is the pick, I think most Chiefs fans will be cheering loudly, and I’ll be among them.

After taking a longer look, a comparative look, at Geno Smith, I believe he is a QBeast and just as good a QB prospect as any who have come out in the past few years. And… he’s also the best player available.

So, what say you? Is Geno Smith a QBeast or not? I say he is.

Welcome to KC Big Red! Like many fans of the Kansas City Chiefs, I received two slightly late Christmas presents last Friday from Chiefs owner Clark Hunt. First, Hunt “parted ways” with the much maligned GM Scott Pioli and quickly followed with an official announcement of the hiring of the new head coach Andy Reid.

Before I get to my take on the Reid hiring I want to take just a second to talk about Chiefs’ owner Clark Hunt. Simply put, Clark Hunt proved two things to me this week. First, he is not a cheap owner. Does he care about making money? Of course he does, but all of the owners in the NFL have “make money” at or near the top of their priority list. Clark Hunt has had to make two major hires since he took control of the team. Four years ago he made Scott Pioli one of the top paid GMs in the sport and now he has done the same with Andy Reid. Clark Hunt could have fired Pioli and Crennel and replaced them with a MUCH cheaper option than Reid and would still have been a hero to most in KC. Instead, between Reid’s payday and the buyouts of Pioli and Crennel Clark Hunt ponied up a hefty sum to get what he wanted. Which gets me to my second point…

Clark Hunt gets his man. Period.

Four years ago he wanted the best GM on the market, he wanted Scott Pioli. Clark Hunt got him. This year with reports buzzing that Andy Reid was a lock to land the Arizona Cardinals coaching job Clark Hunt stepped in and said “not so fast my friends”. He loaded up his interview party, flew to Philadelphia, and locked Reid up in an airport conference room for nine hours. By the time they were finally done meeting there was nothing left for Reid to do but go home and explain to his wife why they wouldn’t be making that trip to Arizona (where her family lives).

Maybe the Arizona job was more rumor (floated by his agent) than fact. Maybe the speculation that Reid would be a good fit in San Diego (where Reid owns a home) was purely that, media speculation. In the end it didn’t matter because Clark Hunt wasn’t taking any chances. He wanted Reid and he did what he had to do to get him. Four years ago when the Chiefs hired Todd Haley they were one of the last teams to hire their coach. This time Hunt wasn’t settling for anyone’s leftovers. The Chiefs were the first of the seven teams with openings to make their new hire.

I don’t know if Reid will be successful in Kansas City (I’ll tell you what I think will help in a moment). What I do know is that if he isn’t, I now feel confident that the Chiefs have an owner that will go out and get the best man available to replace him if/when that time comes. That’s really the most important quality a fan can ask for in an owner. Kudos to Clark Hunt.

Now on to my thoughts on the Reid hire.

I like it.

I was on the record as wanting Chip Kelly. The main reasons being that I thought he could give our offense the “jump start” that it needed and would be a good fit with Jamaal Charles (our best player) and Geno Smith (the player I want KC to draft #1 overall). The same can be said about Andy Reid. I know people complain he doesn’t run the ball enough, but JC doesn’t need 30 carries a game and I’d be fine if his touches matched those of LeSean McCoy the past couple of seasons under Reid. He may not come with the same “hype” that Kelly has going right now, but he comes with a MUCH bigger proven NFL track record (of which Kelly has none). His specialty is QBs and the passing game and that is where KC needs the most help. They also needed a big enough name to fill both Romeo’s shoes as HC but also fill part of the void left by Scott Pioli as the “head” of the football organization. Once again Reid fills that roll. So I am happy with the hire. (Side Note: with the announcement of Chip Kelly staying at Oregon and no signs that Gruden or Cowher are going to go back to coaching the Reid hire starts to look all the better.)

The question of the hour then becomes will Andy Reid be able to win in KC? I think that will rely on two key decisions that Reid will make in the next 4 months:

Who will be his QB?

and…

Who will be his defensive coordinator?

The QB part of the equation is obvious. We all know KC has been horrible at QB for a while. We all know you need a good QB to win in the NFL. We all know that Andy Reid gets the most out of the QBs that he has. The problem that I have is with the opinion that I am seeing in the national media that KC should pass on a QB in the first round and take one in the 2nd round. The thought being that since Reid has made lesser talent like AJ Feely and Kevin Kolb look good, there is no sense in using the first overall pick to reach for a QB.

I couldn’t disagree more. When were Andy Reid’s Eagle teams really good? The answer, when they had a Pro Bowl caliber QB in Donovan McNabb. A QB that Reid drafted #2 overall when he first arrived in Philadelphia. You can talk all you want about Reid’s family issues and players “tuning him out” because he’d been there so long, but the fact that he was “getting by” with QBs that he was coaching up like Kevin Kolb, Mike Vick, and Nick Foles had just as much to do with it. When was the last time Reid’s Eagles were good? When Mike Vick played at a Pro Bowl level in 2010. I don’t want the Chiefs to draft a Kevin Kolb or Nick Foles that Reid can coach up to “good enough”. Does anyone want our starting QB to be just “good enough” or “someone you can get by with”?

I have absolutely 0% interest in that. I also have 0% interest in trading for Kolb or Matt Flynn to start until Reid can coach up some 2nd or 3rd round pick. I want Reid to draft his McNabb with the first overall pick. I understand that all the “experts” don’t think this draft has an Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. I don’t care. Nobody thought Donovan McNabb was a sure thing when Reid drafted him. Philly fans HATED the pick at the time, but Reid identified the QB in that draft that had the physical tools to succeed in his system and drafted him. That is exactly what he should do with the Chiefs. I believe that QB will be Geno Smith, but if Reid likes Tyler Wilson or Matt Barkley then I trust Reid’s opinion on the matter way more than my wanna be scout, watching clips on YouTube, Armchair Addict self.

If you’re still not sold on a 1st round QB, I urge you to read THIS ARTICLE by RotoWorld’s Eric Stoner. He went back and looked at 10 years worth of drafts (2001-2010) and the QBs that were drafted in those drafts. He broke the QBs into four tiers: 1.Elite Franchise QBs, 2.Good Starting QBs, 3.Functional QBs, and 4.Backup or Worse.

Of the 13 QBs drafted that Stoner classified in Tiers 1 and 2, 11 of them were drafted in the 1st round of the draft. The only 2 QBs that he classified as a Tier 1 or Tier 2 QB that were drafted after the 1st round were Drew Brees (2nd round) and Matt Schaub (3rd round) and neither of them are playing for the team that drafted them.

Stoner does point out that recent draft picks Andy Dalton and Russel Wilson could help those numbers, but he left the two most recent drafts out of the study because he felt it was too early to judge some of the QBs this soon.

The fact remains that in a decade of NFL drafts from 2001-2010 there were 22 QBs taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Of those 22, only Brees and Schaub were Tier 1 or Tier 2 QBs. That’s 9% of the QBs drafted in that decade. Only four (18%) of the 22 QBs taken in the 2nd/3rd round even made it as a Tier 3 “functional” QB (Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, Tavaris Jackson, and Colt McCoy). The other 16 QBs (72%) were all backup caliber QBs or complete busts. So history says that if you take a QB in the 2nd/3rd round these are your odds:

1 in 22 (4.5%) will be an elite franchise QB

1 in 22 (4.5%) will be a good starting QB

4 in 22 (18.2%) will be a functional QB

16 in 22 (72.7%) will be a backup or worse

This is why KC MUST draft a QB in the first round, even with Andy Reid as the coach.

How do those odds change if you get the first QB taken in the entire draft? Take a look:

1 in 10 (10%) is an elite franchise QB (Eli Manning)

4 in 10 (40%) are/were good starting QBs (Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford)

2 in 10 (20%) are/were functional QBs (Alex Smith, Sam Bradford)

3 in 10 (30%) are/were backups or worse (David Carr, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell)

(Keep in mind, those classifications are Stoner’s not mine and one could debate what Tier some of those guys belong on, but it doesn’t change the results drastically)

Now, admittedly history says there is a 50% chance that the first QB taken will only be a functional QB or worse. However, the other side of that is that 50% of the first QBs taken in the draft are either elite or good starting QBs compared to only 9% of 2nd/3rd round QBs. That’s an increase of 41%. Given Reid’s track record with getting the most out of the QBs he has I like KC’s chances of ending up on the good side of that 50/50 split.

Anyone think that might just be part of the reason Clark Hunt made sure Reid was his guy? The QB position is just too important for Kansas City to put off and will have too much of an impact on Reid’s success for him to wait to pull the trigger until the 2nd round.

Stoner also pointed out that only two teams took a non-QB with the first overall pick (Houston with Mario Williams and Miami with Jake Long) during that time span. Both of those picks were successful, but Houston still didn’t feel like Williams was worth the price to re-sign and Miami may do the same thing with Jake Long this offseason. Do you see any teams letting a good QB walk to save cap space? What does that tell you about the value of the first pick when it comes to QBs and non-QBs?

The other major decision that will impact Reid’s success will happen much sooner (perhaps even today?) and that is who he will name defensive coordinator. This is important on two fronts. First, hiring a DC that would change to a traditional 4-3 would probably mean that KC would have more holes to fill on defense. That would mean it would take longer to get up and running and KC would have less draft picks and FA money to spend on fixing the offense and getting Reid the players he needs on that side of the ball. This had me 100% convinced that we should stay with the 3-4. Not with the current 2-gapping system, but with an attacking 1-gap blitzing 3-4 like Pittsburgh runs. However, after reading THIS ARTICLE about the similarities in front seven responsibilities in the 3-4 that KC runs and some 4-3s I will be opened minded about whoever they hire until we find out how they plan on using our current players.

The other reason the DC is so important is that getting pressure on the opposing QB is just as important to Reid’s success as having a good QB. Just like Reid’s best years came with great QB play, they also came when they sacked the QB. In Reid’s 14 seasons in Philly he only had three losing seasons. He also only had three seasons where his defense didn’t rank in the top 10 in sacks. Guess what? They are the same three seasons. In the three seasons where his defense wasn’t in the top 10 in sacks his teams were 15-33. In the seasons where they were in the top 10 in sacks they were 130-93-1.

You want to know how KC has ranked in sacks the past five seasons? Their average ranking is 26th. Yes, we have a couple of solid pass rushers in Hali and Houston but the new defensive coordinator must find a way to get more constant pressure on the QB. For many years in Philly he had that DC in Jim Johnson. After his tragic loss to cancer, Reid struggled to replace him. Last year the Eagles finished with the second lowest sack total of his tenure with the team. Reid must find the right guy to attack opposing QBs if he wants to recapture the success he had in Philadelphia.

If Andy Reid can do those two things, if he can succeed in finding a QB and a good defensive coordinator then I think what is already a great hire by Clark Hunt may just end up being a Super Bowl caliber hire.

Here’s to hoping.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

By parting ways with Scott Pioli the Hunt family has effectively liberated the organization from the the most unpopular  general manager in Chiefs history. Pioli’s cloak-and-dagger know-it-all approach to public relations helped to alienate a fan based that saw the irony of such an approach: he didn’t know it all and was an unavailable failure.

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Yesterday, Arrowhead Addict’s own Patrick Allen confirmed that Philadelphia Eagles ex-head coach Andy Reid will most likely be headed to Arizona. Allen goes on to say that Reid is one on a short list of “big fish” coaches available on the market right now.

We’ve seen this pattern before. The most famous snub of all came last spring from Peyton Every-Ball-He-Touches-Turns-To-Gold Manning.

Now that Romeo Crennel is moving out of town and out of the head coaches office, I’m already anticipating the Chiefs missing out on one high profile coach after another.

So, when did this all begin? Is there really a global perception that KC is no-wheres-ville? Or is it just that size (of the city) does matter after all? Since when does a city have to be big, to be sexy?

Yesterday, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com rated the Chiefs last out of all current possible locations for coaches to land. Rapoport ranked Chicago, San Diego, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Cleveland — all better locations for coaches to take over.

“(Lovie) Smith was on the unemployment line Monday, along with six other NFL coaches. A respected leader, Smith was let go with one year on his contract, leaving players crushed by his departure. Smith also left the best roster for anyone to inherit, as well as a spot with one of the NFL’s power franchises in a major city with strong ownership. Oh, and he left a quarterback for the new coach to utilize.”

Major city? Un-check.

Strong ownership? Un-check.

Quarterback? Un-check.

You know… I can agreed with him about the quarterback… and I understand the weak ownership suggestion even though he likely doesn’t understand the way the Hunt family deals with organizational issues (and I probably don’t really understand that myself)… but, when he starts downgrading the city of Kansas City — our home town– that irks me to say the least.

On the other hand, most of us are aware of multiple times in the past ten years that major free agents have passed the Chiefs by, without even a courtesy visit. Which, raises the question… is Kansas City one of the NFL’s ugly stepchildren? Is this an unwanted location to play, coach or serve as GM?

Arrowhead has traditionally been viewed as one of the most difficult places for opposing players to visit and the only other location that comes to mind, that is as loud, is in Seattle. So, you’d think players would want to play here.

Which raises more questions because the Seahawks have done fairly well at drawing free agents to their, rather remote, locale. However, success is a magnet and the Chiefs haven’t had much of that in recent years. So, is this “ugly stepchild” perception solely related to the lack of winning?

That’s a bit of a catch-22 isn’t it: you can’t start drawing notable free agents until you are winning and you can start winning until you draw some notable free agents. Anyway, that’ the general idea.

Earlier this year when Peyton Manning sidestepped, even a visit, to KC, the Chiefs had supposedly put together one of the best rosters in the NFL. However, in Peyton’s case this may not have ever been a possibility because of the Scott Pioli-Tom Brady connection and Manning may have thought he was consorting with the enemy by coming here.

So, what do you think Addicts? Does Kansas City have a perception problem for coaches, free agents or GMs? Or, are we about to witness a deluge of coaches attempting to knock Clark Hunt’s door down?

Then Hunt states, “No final determination has been made on the future of General Manager Scott Pioli.”

Huh?

While I’m miffed about that development I’m all the more puzzled about why Scott Pioli still has his job and wondering: what’s a guy gotta do to get fired around here?

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As the final seconds of the Chiefs 38-3 stomping at the hands of the Denver Broncos came to a close, it brought with it the merciful end to what was the worst season in the history of the Kansas City Chiefs. It was horrible from start to finish. There weren’t enough highlights to even fill a paragraph, let alone a post. The only real solace that fans of this team can take is that change is coming. That change should start today. The question of the day is, will the general manager be part of that change?

By the time the Chiefs and Broncos kicked off Sunday it had already been reported by Jason Cole, Jason LaCanfora, and Jay Glazer that Romeo Crennel would be fired after the season was over. I consider Glazer a safe source to trust, and when you add the others to it I feel confident that Romeo is gone.

Scott Pioli is another story. There were conflicting reports all day Sunday about wether or not Pioli will be retained. Hopefully, by the time some of you are reading this it will have been announced that he is being fired, but one way or another we should know sometime today. Even if we hear nothing, I would take that as a bad sign that Pioli may be staying.

If Pioli is fired then KC fans can enjoy the only upside to being the worst team in the NFL: hope for a new start. A new GM, a new coaching staff, the first overall pick in the NFL draft, and a new franchise QB to lead the team.

If Pioli is retained then all that hope is tainted. The new coach, draft picks, and franchise QB will all be selected by a man that we have no faith in. If Clark Hunt thinks that fans will flock to buy tickets to see a new coach and new QB and forget about all the “Fire Pioli” uproar from this season, I think he is sorely mistaken.

If you are among the few that think retaining Pioli is a good idea, then I encourage you to check out this document of Scott Pioli Facts put together by SaveOurChiefs. Here are a few highlights:

The Chiefs’ record under Scott Pioli (23-42) is the worst of any GM in Chiefs history.

The Chiefs’ record against winning teams under Pioli is just 3-18.

The Chiefs are 0-27 when their opponent scores more than 24 points under Pioli.

There are plenty more, but you get the idea. The Chiefs are not headed in the right direction under Scott Pioli, and keeping him would be a huge mistake. I hope that this post is soon followed by reports that Clark Hunt is cleaning house. Firing Romeo Crennel is a start, but Scott Pioli needs to follow him out the door.

Fingers crossed, at least we’ll know soon!

Thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!