I cannot say that it is an incompetence thing, a pride or arrogance or attitude thing, a corporate culture thing, or simply a bad luck thing, but I do know that whatever it is, it is without question a very exasperating, very disappointing, excuse-exhausted thing.  I am talking about Scott Pioli’s tenure as general manager of the Kansas City Chiefs Football Club. A hire that initially seemed all hopeful and shiny new has lost all of its brilliance, all of its hope. Sadly for us weary, die-hard fans, the time has come for Clark Hunt to own this failure, start fresh, and try once more.

To that end, I contribute my voice and my vote. I suggest a GM with a proven track record of fixing broken teams, re-infusing them with fundamental football and fiery motivation, and galvanizing all that into a highly competitive, highly feared NFL team, year in and year out. I suggest somebody who is out front with the media, articulate, unafraid to speak his mind and connects with fans in a natural, unpretentious way. I suggest somebody who is also intimately familiar with the Kansas City Chiefs, having served as the team’s head coach for 10 seasons, compiling a 105-58-1 regular season record, and making seven trips (over a 10 year span) to the playoffs in the process.

I am, of course, referring to Marty Schottenheimer. As the next GM of the Kansas City Chiefs, what now ensues are my thoughts as to “What Would Marty Do?”

Now I do not profess to know every last facet about what a GM does but I think I know at least a thing or  two about what the job entails and obsessing over a candy wrapper on the floor just ain’t at the top of that list. No, in terms of building a team, a GM must have a clear vision of what he wants the identity of his team to be, and then finds the people whom he believes will fulfill that vision. The process begins by aligning himself with the right head coach.

So let’s first take just a moment to discuss whether or not Marty Schottenheimer is any good at identifying coaching talent, supporting his coaches, and mentoring them into winners. I think the best way to answer that question is to simply look at his coaching tree. In other words, who are the coaches that have worked under him or are the products of his coaching philosophy?  The short list on that includes the likes of Bill Cowher, Mike Tomlin, Tony Dungy, Lovie Smith, Mike McCarthy, Ken Whisenhunt, Cam Cameron, and Chan Gailey to name just a few.

In a nutshell, I have zero concerns about Marty Schottenheimer’s ability to target, acquire and support an effective head coach who he feels has the skills and ability to fulfill his vision and follow his blueprint for creating a successful team. I would go even further to say that Schottenheimer’s experience and influence would likely yield positive results with the development and success of the entire coaching staff.

After teaming himself up with a head coach, together they would roll up their sleeves and undertake the task of putting the remaining staff pieces in place, contemplate which existing players fit the vision, who they might acquire through FA and of course scouting the college ranks. Now a frequently heard knock on Schottenheimer is that he always struggled with getting and/or developing a franchise quarterback. Frankly, I don’t know how much of that knock really ought to be put on Carl Peterson and how much is attributable to Marty, but I do know that one of many personnel run ins that Marty had with AJ Smith out in San Diego was over the decision to let Drew Brees go in favor of Phillip Rivers. That little dust up right there tells me that Marty Schottenheimer might know a thing or two about what goes into being an elite NFL QB.

While we’re on the subject of fielding a franchise quarterback, I don’t think anyone can just assumne that Marty was the problem in KC while he was here. Chiefs’ general management owned a sorry history on that front before Marty arrived in KC and has continued on so since his departure. Is it entirely unreasonable to think that the chronic failure on that account is perhaps more systemic and less coach centric? Let’s also keep in mind that Marty Schottenheimer, as GM, other than in a consulting role, would probably have little to do with developing any individual player as that responsibility would fall mainly upon his head coach and offensive coaching staff. Again, remember, as GM, it would be Marty’s responsibility to support the coaching staff, not do their jobs for them.

If there’s absolutely one thing one must admire about Marty Schottenheimer as a coach, it was his ability to motivate his teams to play nasty, tough football, and just really out of their collective minds. As a GM, it’s hard to imagine that he would not continue to heavily influence that same culture, something the Chiefs have sorely lacked since his departure. It matters not whether he accomplishes that by infecting his coaches with such mentality, or by personally breathing fire into the locker room, it’s a thing that Chiefs football currently lacks and will not thrive without.  Among its many flaws, the Pioli version of Chiefs football lacks fire and one just cannot discount Marty’s Schottenheimer’s charisma nor his ability to inspire hard work and heroic performances out of all who fall under his command.

As to whether or not Marty would be effective in negotiating player contracts, I can’t really say for certain but I do feel that his experience as a former player ought to be of value towards that end.  I also feel that it is in within his skill set to coax some “home town discounts” out of his better players should the need arise. As to the latter, that sort of thing was not uncommon while he was coach and I am pretty sure his involvement in the process had a little to do with such outcomes. In other words, there is no reason to believe that Marty would not be able to maintain and build around his core players and there are good reasons to think he actually would.

In terms of connecting with the fans and media, Marty has always made himself accessible in that regard. As I said before, Marty is not afraid to speak his mind and I would even say he has a certain knack for communicating in a manner that exudes self-confidence but without exhibiting condescension or disrespect. Schottenheimer, just like any GM, is bound to have his detractors but it is highly unlikely he will ever show up to a press conference appearing defensive, unarmed, or otherwise ill-prepared to respond to whatever question comes his way.

Lastly, we must address the biggest knock on Marty, that being his post season track record as a head coach.  About that, I have several thoughts. The thing that first and foremost comes to mind is the fact that, as the GM, and as I hinted at earlier, Marty Schottenheimer would not be on the sideline calling any plays. Secondly, there’s probably nobody in the entire NFL with more motivation to win a championship and cement his legacy. Within the division itself, there is little doubt Marty Schottenheimer would like nothing better than to upstage and redeem himself against the likes of AJ Smith and John Elway. His focus on Raiders week is legendary.

Now I will freely admit that my thinking on this matter is still in its infancy and likely needs some additional reflection and fine tuning. Still, I also feel that the fundamental skills, character traits, intimate familiarity with Kansas City and its football team, and his overall experience all point to making this a sensible reality and that if and when it is, the outcome of such sea change will be quite positive.

Time to share your thoughts Addicts. Is it still too early in the season to start thinking along these lines or have you reached your boiling point, seen enough, and ready to blow this up? If you don’t believe Marty is up to the job of GM, who would you rather see and why? If Clark Hunt pulls the plug on Pioli, who would you have his new GM bring in as a head coach?

We’ll begin this week’s edition of Pressure Points by pointing out that the Chargers, up until being manhandled by the Falcons, were (statistically speaking) regarded by Football Outsiders as among the league’s most the solid, well-rounded teams. As of week 2, FO had them as the 10th most efficient overall, 11th most efficient on offense, 12th most efficient on defense, and 12th most efficient on special teams.  As a result of their performance last Sunday, the Chargers now rank 22nd in overall efficiency, 21st on offense, 20th on defense, and 10th at special teams. I have little doubt that the Chargers are unhappy with how they played against the Falcons and will be seeking to rebound and re-establish themselves as a well-rounded, quality team this Sunday.

Because the overall focus of these articles is to draw attention to potential soft spots of our upcoming opponents, let’s also take a moment to consider the Chargers 2-1 record and how they arrived there. More specifically, how strong was the Chargers start of the season? Well, if you consider the strengths/weaknesses of their first two opponents, I suppose one might reasonably question how much they actually accomplished by beating the Raiders and the Titans. As of week 2, Football Outsiders ranked Tennessee 31st on offense, 28th on defense, and 13th on special teams. The Raiders, as of week 2, were 15th on offense, 25th on defense, and 32nd on special teams.

Now before you jump to the conclusion that the Chargers’ first two wins are entirely attributable to the fact that they faced weak teams only to be exposed in week 3 by what appears to be a very strong team, let’s not overlook the 800 lb gorilla in the room. In spite of a feel-good, rallying win over an 0-3 Saints team, Football Outsiders nevertheless ranks the Chiefs 32nd in overall efficiency, 24th in offensive efficiency, 30th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in special teams efficiency. In other words, as things currently stand, the Chiefs appear to be exactly the kind of team that the Chargers have enjoyed success against. To put it bluntly, in almost every aspect of their game, the Chiefs must either improve immediately or face a season of disappointment, humiliation, well deserved criticism and dashed expectations.

Capiche?

With all that out of way, we’ll begin this by focusing on Phillip Rivers. Three games into the season, FO ranks Rivers 20th in both DYAR and DVOA. Rivers QBR is the 15th best in the league. His TD/INT ratio is 4/3, he owns a  67% completion rate and he’s so far thrown 109 passes for 664 yards.

In this instance, I feel it helps to add a little perspective. As of right now, Matt Cassel is 25th in both DYAR and DVOA, and 16th in QBR. Cassel’s TD/INT ratio is 3/3. He has a 60% completion rate and has thrown 128 passes for 738 yards.

Put simply, 3 weeks in, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest that Rivers is putting up somewhat pedestrian numbers and perhaps the Chiefs ought to consider his presence as something  manageable… as long as they step up and do their jobs that is. As we’ve seen in past years, the best way to manage Phillips is to harass him because that’s when he’s most likely to start making mistakes. Whether the Chiefs are up to that task remains to be seen.

Examining the Chargers’ Offensive Line stats, we see that they currently rank 13th most efficient in pass protection; so, if past performance is any indicator, hassling Rivers won’t be particularly easy. As far as the run game goes, the Chargers, while 20th overall, are the 25th at the 2nd level (5 – 10 yards). They do however rank highly in short yardage situations, so keeping them 3rd and long as much as possible should probably be a key objective for the Chiefs. As far as lanes and gaps are concerned, the Chargers have been very effective (6th best) when they run between the guards but, everywhere else, they rank in the bottom half of the league.

Definitely also worth noting here is that the Chargers starting left tackle is a rookie free agent, Michael Harris, who’s filling in for Jared Gaither, who missed nearly all of training camp and the first three games due to a lingering back problem. He did, however, suit up for practice this week so whether or not he is ready to go for Sunday remains to be seen. I’m guessing Gaither will not be 100% and most likely not starting if he suits up.

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers are below average in a number of areas based on Football Outsiders’ stats. They are 20th against the pass. Their defensive line ranks 27th in beating pass protection. They rank 29th against #1WRs, 24th against passes to RBs, and 18th against “other (e.g., slot) WRs.” If Cassel can be protected and is accurate, there may be opportunities to find success with the likes of Bowe, McCluster, Charles and perhaps even Copper in the passing game.

While 5th overall in defensing the run, the Chargers nevertheless appear to have some exposure against the run. For example, they rank 32nd against power running and are 20th in stuffs. Their weakest spots on the line appear to be the B gaps, where they are 27th on the left side and 21st on the right. Interesting enough, it also appears that their apparent vulnerability on the left side has not been well tested by opposing offenses. The league average attempts to the left B gap is 14% of carries while the Chargers have so far only dealt with their opponents targetting that gap at a 10% rate.

To summarize, on offense, the Chargers main vulnerabilities appear to be: 1) a quarterback with a tendency to make mistakes when pressured, 2) running outside the guards, 3) getting to the second level, and 4) left tackle. On defense, the Chargers appear to be vulnerable against 1) #1 WRs, 2) passes to RBs and “other WRs, ” and 3) runs that target the B gaps, particularly the left B gap.

Those are the Chargers’ pressure points. Addicts, let’s hear your thoughts on what the Chiefs need to do to beat the Chargers.

The business goal of Goldman Sachs is to be successful at making money both for its clients and for itself. If, like Goldman Sachs, making money is the primary standard by which Clark Hunt measures success and worth, then I guess I must admit that his leadership style is certainly effective toward that end. What Clark Hunt may not do is stand shoulder-to-shoulder with other NFL owners, look them in the eye with pride and confidence on the grounds that he also oversees a successful football organization, from top to bottom.

Perhaps it is because Clark Hunt was born into so much money that he knows no other definition for success other than maximizing the accumulation of it. If not attributable to his privileged upbringing, then perhaps it is simply because Mr. Hunt is a true believer of the Goldman Sachs way, perhaps willfully blind to any other. Whatever the case, when it comes to being a winner on Sunday afternoons, Clark Hunt has yet to demonstrate competence at instilling a culture that adheres to what is sometimes called the warrior way. By that, I mean an organizational commitment to technical mastery, loyalty, and honor unto death.

A culture that emphasizes secrecy and surveillance is, by definition, an insecure organization. Insecurity implies distrust. Distrust breeds fear and resentment. The legacy of fear and resentment is disloyalty.

There was once a time when secrecy was not essential to Chiefs football. There once was a time when everyone in the world knew exactly what the Chiefs were planning to do on the very next play. There once was a time when any and all such foreknowledge could not prevent the Chiefs from doing exactly what they intended. That time, that mastery, that loyalty, such honor, is no more.

Scott Pioli, for his part (if reports are to be believed), seems to care about finding candy wrappers just as much as he cares about finding “the right 53.” Again, if reports are to be believed, the type of loyalty that Pioli commands to himself seems to be hewn as much from fear of retaliation as it is from the respect and belief that his approach will result in team success on Sundays.  Truthfully, can it be said that Scott Pioli cultivates technical mastery, loyalty, and honor into this team? If so, where lies the proof?

Romeo Crennel, the “players’” coach, with his victory over the undefeated Packers last season, was a great story for a minute.  The team that he fielded that day was one which appeared to exemplify appreciation for and loyalty to his, shall we say, less emotional approach to coaching. In the players’ minds, Crennel had once been in their shoes, understood what they were going through, and so they relate to him at that level.

It seems increasingly clear now that Crennel’s approach to coaching, while perhaps long on loyalty, seems to be failing miserably in its emphasis on technical mastery and from all appearances, is woefully devoid of “honor unto death.”  Yes, Romeo loves his players and they love him back, but where does the love end, and the toughness begin? Where is the honor in constant  humiliation?

Put simply, Crennel is failing to get his players to execute at the level of which they are capable and more broadly, failing to motivate them. With the harsh days of Haley now past, Crennel has gone the other direction, perhaps more comfortable with the thought of being liked by his team, than pushing the right buttons without regard to whether the players like him or not.

As for the players themselves, the Chiefs field one of the most talented collection of players in the league. For example, when surrounded by the right pieces, Matt Cassel, while perhaps not an “elite” quarterback, has at least demonstrated that he can lead a team to at least 10 or 11 regular season wins. On paper, there is not a backfield in the league that is better than what the Chiefs currently possess.

The Chiefs also lay claim to two first-round wide receivers, a first-round veteran left tackle, and a highly rated right tackle.  Second-round pick Dexter McCluster shows flashes of being a dynamic slot receiver. When effectively used, Steve Breaston can move the chains and occasionally get you chunks of yards. Our two leading tight ends can both catch, block, and get YAC. The Chiefs offense is long on talent and yet lacking in intensity.

The Chiefs defense, same story. They boast six first-round picks, five of whom line up as part of the front seven. Their three best cornerbacks are all second-round picks. Like the offense, they are loaded with talent yet again, lacking in intensity.  When a veteran defenseman plays out of position, that is not a talent issue, that is mental softness issue, a lack of commitment to technical mastery.

On both sides of the line, the Chiefs are being dominated. Crushed. They, like the rest of the team, do not inflict any pain, they are its flaccid victims.

A rally win in New Orleans will not right this ship. Playing the Indian War Chant over the loudspeakers of Arrowhead does not make this a team of warriors. What is required of this organization is a behavioral revolution, one that embraces and embodies the warrior spirit.

After flopping badly in their debut performance, the Kansas City Chiefs proceed to take this show on the road. First whistle stop, upstate New York.

I’ll begin this with some generalizations about the Buffalo Bills, and then get into some of the finer details. Like the Chiefs, the 2011 Bills suffered some key injuries that in large part helped derail what looked to be an otherwise promising season. After a strong start and talk of playoff contention, the Bills literally fell apart on the back nine, going 1-8 down the stretch. The 2011 IR casualties included star running back Fred Jackson, NT Kyle Williams, C Erik Wood, NT Terrell Troup, WR Marcus Easley, slot WR Roscoe Parrish, and pass rushing specialist Shawne Merriman. Reportedly Ryan Fitzpatrick also played out the season with a couple of bad ribs after Week 8, the point after which they went 1-8.

Another generalization about the Bills is that they are led by what is widely considered an average QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick. With the right pieces around him, Fitzpatrick can be an efficient game manager. However the popular opinion is that he is not the kind of QB who can typically put his team on his back and win.  Come to think of it, one might reasonably compare Fitz to . . . nah, too easy.

The Bills ranked 19th in passing offense efficiency for 2011 according to Football Outsiders. Aside from Fitz’ pedestrian skills as a signal caller, the Bills were also pretty limited in receiver talent and depth. As far as running the ball goes, the Bills were 2011′s 8th most efficient rushing offense, again referencing Football Outsiders’ “Defense-adjusted Value Over Average” statistical assessment.

Breaking down the Bills 2011 offense even further, we discover that Football Outsiders ranked their offensive line in the top half of the league in most categories. To wit, they ranked 12th most efficient in overall run blocking and tops overall in pass protection.  In the run game, the Bills OL were seventh best at power running, 14th best at avoiding stuffs, ninth best for second level runs, and second best in open field blocking. Along the lanes and gaps, they came in 10th, 20th, 11th, 30th, and second for runs outside the LE, inside LT, M/G, and RT, and outside RE respectively.

Now for the Bills’ offensive pressure points.

Looking at the offensive skill positions, the Bills feature CJ Spiller in the backfield, Stevie Johnson at WR, and TE Scott Chandler. Beyond those three, there does not appear to be much in the cupboard. Unfortunately for the Bills when they face the Chiefs, they will be lacking the services of their best offensive weapon, RB Fred Jackson, who is out with a right knee injury. Jackson is expected to miss the first 3 weeks of the season.

If things weren’t already bad enough, #2 WR David Nelson is on IR after tearing his ACL in the game against the Jets; #1 WR Johnson, hampered by a lingering groin injury, is listed as probable against the Chiefs.

Three words come to mind in characterizing the current state of the Bills’ offensive firepower: Thin, thin, and thin. Short translation, to make this thing go, it will largely be upon Ryan Fitzpatrick to transform himself from a game manager into a field general. That, in turn, begs the question, does Fitz have enough other pieces around him to facilitate said transformation?

The situation in the trenches can be sized up as follows  – extremely solid on the interior but a little suspect at the edges. For example, at left tackle, formerly manned by Demetress Bell, is now the job of rookie Cordy Glenn while the right tackle spot continues to be occupied by veteran Erik Pears. It seems also worth noting that in spite of the fact that Fitzpatrick apparently enjoyed the best pass protection in the league last season, the Bills could only muster a 19th ranking in passing efficiency. That seems to suggest either an indictment of Fitz’ skills as a passer or a lack of quality receivers. Maybe both?

Verdict on the OL - Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blind side protection will and should be tested often this season. Going back to an earlier point, the Bills struggled on runs through the right B gap. That perhaps suggests that Pears, while effective at sealing off the end, and protecting against edge rushers, is nevertheless susceptible to getting overwhelmed with activity that goes inside, to his left. In other words, that right B gap seems like it might be a soft spot for, say, DJ or a safety blitz to make a sack or TFL.

Now for the defensive side of the ball. In 2011, the Bills struggled in just about every facet of defense. Football Outsiders ranked them 28th in efficiency defensing the run and 25th in pass rushing efficiency. Matchups with specific receivers had them 22nd against #1 WRs, 29th against #2 WRs, 1st against “other WRs,” 22nd against TEs, and 20th against RBs.

Much of the 2011 Bills’ struggles in defensing  the pass can be attributed their lack of a pass rush. The Bills clearly recognized this flaw during the offseason, got serious about it, and acquired two DEs in free agency, Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.  One would expect that the Williams acquisition alone should pay immediate dividends in this department.

Football Outsiders ranked 2011 Bills DL 28th overall against the run. At the granular level, they were 14th in efficiency against power running, 32nd in stuffs, 21st in defending at the 2nd level, and 24th against open field rushing.

The return of NT Kyle Williams ought to also be a big boost to the Bills defense, both in stopping the run, and in helping to facilitate a better pass rush. DT Marcell Dareus will be in his second year and can be expected to elevate his game as well. Generally speaking, 2012 should see a much improved defensive line for the Bills.

Other than WLB Kevin Barnett, the Bills the linebacking corps appears to be kind of a work in progress, with SLB Arthur Moats in his 3rd year, and MLB Kelvin Sheppard in his second year.

It is difficult to fairly assess the Bills secondary in light of the defense’s general inability to get the passer last season, but they should, at the very worst, be considered at least average (but also inexperienced, yet possibly improving).  For instance, I would consider Jairus Byrd as among the better safeties in the league. Byrd’s counterpart, George Wilson, on the other hand, seems to me to be a bit suspect.

To shore themselves up at corner, the Bills used their first draft pick on Stephon Gilmore, who has been given a starting role (also noting here that he got roundly schooled by the Jets last Sunday). Playing opposite Gilmore is second-year man Aaron Williams. Like I said, inexperienced but presumably improving. What the Bills do possess in their secondary is quality veteran depth in the likes of Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee.

It will be particularly interesting to see to what extent the Bills’ offseason acquisitions — pass rushers Williams and Anderson, along with the return of Kyle Williams — improve this unit over what we saw last season.

Lastly, the Bills ranked 24th in special teams efficiency.

To recap their weaknesses, I tend to view the Bills offense as somewhat lacking in necessary QB skills, thin with firepower, and very suspect at the left tackle position. On defense, the Bills corners are inexperienced but have good depth behind them, they are suspect at SS, their LBs are for the most part young but improving, and their defensive line is stout (on paper at least). What remains to be seen is whether the Bills combination of youthful talent among their backers and secondary combined with veteran talent and skills along the DL will gel into a more formadible unit than the product the Bills showed in 2011?

Addicts, put on your offensive and defensive coordinator caps and let us hear your gameplan for this Sunday in Buffalo.

So we begin the 2012 season, Falcons at Chiefs.

Now what do I mean by Pressure Points? To put this in as simple as terms as possible, no team is perfect and the Falcons are no exception to that rule.

As I’m sure most will agree, on offense, the Falcons are an excellent team, led by a rising star quarterback, a very talented receiving corps, solid pass blocking and a fairly decent ground game that features Michael Turner.  Matt Ryan is a quarterback who can make plays and possesses the necessary leadership and skills to can carry his team through adversity. Roddy White is widely considered to be among the league’s elite receivers.

Second year receiver Julio Jones has the potential to be just as dynamic as White if not moreso. Similarly, slot receiver Harry Douglas is a guy who can destroy you when left uncovered. Future HOF’er TE Tony Gonzalez can be counted on to catch a slew of balls each year, routinely make third down conversions, and help move the chains on a consistent basis.  Last season, Michael Turner rushed for 1340 yards averaging 4.5 yards a pop.

In a nutshell, the Falcons field a very potent offense stocked with playmakers.

The Falcons do not have many weak points but there are some chinks in the Falcons offensive armor. The first to note is perhaps the most obvious. Matt Ryan, just like any quarterback, is less of a threat when pressured.

Fortunately for Ryan, the Falcons offensive line has, as a unit, is pretty good. That said, their weakest link along that line however is also the most important: left tackle, which continues to be undermanned by likes of Sam Baker and Will Svitek. During this past offseason, the only significant move the Falcons made to address their offensive line was draft Peter Konz as the eventual replacement for 34-year-old C Todd McClure. Konz was expected to be the Falcons starter RG but has so far been unable to win it away from the heretofor lackluster Garrett Reynolds.

The Falcons offense, while solid in just about every respect, does have some concerns when it comes to veterans at or nearing the downside/end of their career. As already mentioned, McClure is 34. Tony Gonzalez is 36 (and considerably slower these days). Similarly, White, now 30, while still a productive and dangerous receiver, is also not as explosive as he once was.

Michael Turner, also 30, has been a workhouse for the Falcons, serving in the role of a true feature back (almost an anachronism these days), touching the ball nearly 1200 times over the last 4 seasons. Toward the end of last season, Turner’s production began to drop off noticeably. One has to wonder, like so many traditional feature backs, how much he has left in the tank. The Falcons did not do anything of any significance during the offseason to address this concern either.

With Turner, the Falcons are essentially one dimensional in the rushing attack. According to Football Outsiders stats, in 2011, Turner was most efficient when running inside the right tackle (ranking ninth) and outside the left tackle (ranking 12th).  Other than the aforementioned two lanes, Turner ranked towards the bottom of league in efficiency. In fact, the Falcons run game as a whole ranked 27th in efficiency. To perhaps put this is even better perspective, Turner’s overall efficiency ranked statistically below that of Jackie Battle’s last season, once again according to Football Outsiders.

Let’s recap the Falcons pressure points on offense.

Along the offensive line, I believe one can fairly say they are highly suspect at Left Tackle and Right Guard, and treading water with an aging Center.  Among their receiving corps, Tony Gonzalez seems to have slowed down considerably and Roddy White, while still good, seems to have lost a step. Similarly, at RB, Michael Turner’s tread is starting to showing signs of wear.

Now let’s talk about the Falcon’s defense.

I’ll start off by saying that the free agency acquisition of Asante Samuel (age 31), being paired up with Brent Grimes (age 29), gives Atlanta a “respect worthy” secondary.  I’d even go so far as to say that Grimes is probably one of the most under-rated CBs in the league. In terms of defending specific receivers, in 2011 according to Football Outsiders, the Falcons ranked, respectively, 30th, 12th, second, first, and eighth against #1 WR, #2 WR, Other WR, TE, and RB.

Overall, Football Outsiders ranked the Falcons as the 11th most efficient pass defense and now with the acquisition of Samuel, one might think there’s good reason to think they will be even better this season.

At linebacker, the Falcons defense took its biggest hit during the offseason with the loss of Curtis Lofton to free agency. Lofton had led the Falcons in tackles for the past two seasons and was a vocal leader for the team. So, I’ll just come right out and say the loss of Lofton is probably the most significant hit to the Falcons D unit and I rather expect that the loss of his presence will be felt in both tangible and intangible ways this season.

The Falcons’ front four on D are also pretty good. John Abraham (age 34) continues to man the RDE spot, and Ray Edwards (age 27) seems to be holding things down at LDE pretty well as well. Abraham is a perennial sack machine, last year getting 9.5 total. For his part, Edwards had somewhat of a down year and managed only 3.5 sacks. I’m inclined to attribute Edwards drop off in sacks largely to him needing time to acclimate to the Falcons defense and coaching staff, having come from the Vikings just the year prior.

Against the run, Football Outsiders ranked the Falcons DL as the third most efficient unit in the league last season.  They ranked #2 in stuff efficiency, 17th against power runs and 2nd level, and 20th against open field runs. Breaking this down even further along the gaps, the Falcons ranked seventh in defending runs outside the LE, fifth at defending runs that targeted the left A gap, 25th against runs that went between the guards, first against the right A gap, and second against runs outside the RE.

So there you have it. The weak points of the Falcons defense seem to be few. I really only potentially see a couple (if any?), the biggest of those being the loss of MLB Lofton and to what extent Dent and the rest of the Falcons defense can compensate for the void left. The other weakness seems to be their difficulty at stopping runs up the middle. Lastly, and this is somewhat of minor point, they seem to struggle some at tackling runners once they break through the line. I suspect that the loss of leading tackler Lofton may exacerbate this apparent weakness even further.

So there you have it, Addicts. I’ve laid out, to the best of my ability, where the Falcons weaknesses lie. Now it’s your turn to play coach and tell me what you do to exploit these perceived flaws? For example, with Hali out, who do you rush against Baker/Svitek?  Do you swap Houston to the other side? What role would you like see to Eric Berry in—guarding Gonzalez or rushing the passer? On the other side of the line, what is your plan of attack against the formidable Falcons D?

Sound off!!

Consider this an extension of the “Of Combines and Correlations” series if you will.  However, instead of looking at just rookie scores, I’ve decided to take it a step further to see how our entire roster performed in physical attribute testing, whether through the NFL Combine or Pro Days, how those players compare amongst themselves within their position group, how they stack up against their NFL position peers, and then maybe make some assessments as whether they are beating the odds or falling in line with Joe Landers predictive model.  If you’re new to this approach, you can get a better understanding of what this is all about and perhaps why it even matters by simply reviewing Of Combines and Correlations – Part 1.

Today, we take a look at physical attribute scores for the current roster of Chiefs wide recievers as shown below.

As perhaps you may recall from Of Combines and Correlations – Part 4, Landers concludes from his statistical analysis of the 5 year combine database ending in 2008, that wide receivers who exceeded peer average in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump, plus earned at least two EPAs on top of that had the best odds for future NFL success and that 6 EPAs was optimal, again provided that EPAs in the 40 and VJ were among the EPAs earned.

The first thing that probably catches your eyes here is Josh Bellamy’s perfect* score of 7 EPAs (*noting that WRs almost never participate in the Long Shuttle Drill). 7 would seem even better than 6, right? Well, going off of Landers 5 year dataset, only one receiver achieved 7 EPAs, and as of 2008, that player was not a starter but did at least make roster.  So noted, given the small sample size, I personally wouldn’t make any statistical distinction between 7 EPAs and the optimum 6 EPAs.

Breaking it down a little, the current roster is composed of 3 receivers who achieved 6 EPAs or better, Bellamy, Kinnie, and Wylie, all of whom are rookies.  4th round pick Wylie seems to be leading the pack in terms of camp productivity however the undrafted rookies, Bellamy and local product Kinnie, have certainly also made some plays when given the opportunity.  It’s tough to figure out at this point what the Chiefs plan to do with all this fresh infusion of speed and athleticism in the context of a 53 man roster, but it will be an interesting story to watch nonetheless. Also, keep in mind that Landers timeline for determining NFL success (i.e., 1st teamer status) is 5 years or less from the time of being drafted (or in the case of UDFA’s, being signed).

Of these three, I suppose I am most optimistic about Wylie in terms of making the 53 man roster and having an immediate impact as a returner. In the case of Bellamy, he’s definitely garnered a lot of well deserved attention in training camp to date. Similarly, Kinnie has flashed some ability as a big, speedy, physical red zone threat with good hands.

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending upon how one views the situation, the Chiefs are likely to only keep 6 receivers on the active roster and those most likely to make the final cut at this point seem to be Bowe, Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, Wylie and I’m going to guess Copper (as a special teamer).  In the case of both Bellamy and Kinnie, even if the Chiefs are intending to slate both for the practice squad (and let’s not  leave Jeremy Horne out of this conversation either) I would really hate to see either of those guys get snatched up on waivers while we’re waiting to place them on the practice squad.

Of course, there remains several weeks before the Chiefs have to make that final cut. Things can change, injuries, competition, whatever so perhaps one or more of these guys on the outside develops quickly between now and then and earns (or steps into) an open roster spot? Scott Pioli also needs to think about the long term future of the organization.

Will Bowe be signed to a long term deal? Will he be franchised two years in a row (that second year gets pretty expensive mind you)? There are a number of things going on that suggest to me that this will be Dwayne Bowe’s last season with the Chiefs. Hopefully we get something valuable in exchange for him.

I’m also not all that certain that Steve Breaston will be around much longer either. His contract is not expensive and his production last season was nothing to write home about. I strongly recommend everyone link here to get Football Outsiders evaluation of both Bowe’s and Breaston’s 2011 campaign. Frankly, neither particularly wowed in terms of elite receiver qualifications.

With what appears to be the recent emergence of Baldwin and McCluster, along with the need to develop a receiver or two to replace Bowe, perhaps Breaston suddenly becomes expendable and one or more of these guys on the bubble can avoid the practice team/waiver conundrum and gets a year to develop as part of the regular 53 man squad? It’s also hard to say at this point whether Copper is a lock between now and the final cut.

That my Double Take Addicts.

Let me hear your thoughts on all this. Are you impressed by the physical talent and potential of the Chiefs’ rookie wide receivers this year? Are you at all surprised by what appears to be a less-than-ideal physical attribute skills of the receivers currently on the roster;  especially considering we’re talking about guys that most might consider the mainstays of our receiver corps? Lastly, what do you think holds for the future of this group?

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6

Finally, we arrive at the last installment of this statistical forecast for the Chiefs 2012 draft class. In the 7th round, the Chiefs selected DL Jerome Long and WR Junior Hemingway.  Hemingway participated at the Combine but Long did not and so in the latter’s case, we’ll need to use alternative physical attribute data (e.g., Pro Day results) when applying Joe Landers’ methodology for projecting future NFL success.

We’ll begin with Long (6’4″, 290 lbs), who will presumably serve in the role of a 43-type DT. Landers’ DT peer average metrics (bolded being the most important) and first teamer EPA percentages follow:

Short Shuttle: 4.61 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 12.44 sec; No 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.67 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 30.10”; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 106”; 52% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.11 sec; 61% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 26.43; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

As we can see, the leading indicator for DT’s is the 3-cone drill, wherewith 2/3rds of DT prospects earning an EPA made first team within 5 years of being drafted based on Landers combine database. Cutting straight to the chase, Landers concludes that optimal number of EPA’s for a DT is 6, and other than that, somewhere in the range of 3 to 5 EPAs still makes for a ”respectable” outcome at this position in terms of players serving in depth roles.  Put another way, anything less than 6 EPAs, and the percentage of guys who made 1st team drops into the teens.  Bottom line, successful DTs need to not only be ugly, they better also be hellacious athletes.

All that said, here’s how Longs’ Pro Day numbers looked:

Short Shuttle: No data available

Long Shuttle: No data available

Three Cone: No data available

Vertical Jump: 23″

Broad Jump: 102”

Forty yard dash: 5.04 sec (source – nfldraftscout.com); EPA

Bench Reps: 23

Lacking critical attribute data, particularly in the 3 Cone Drill, makes the overall assessment of Long both difficult and a bit of a mystery in terms of evaluating his athleticism. What we can safely say is that the statistical likelihood of him becoming a starter is extremely slim based just on these limited results. Beyond that, if hypothetically given the opportunity, he would need to score EPAs in both the short shuttle and 3 Cone to be considered statistical viable to even make roster.  In other words, Landers’ forecast for Jerome Long is not a very promising one. Perhaps there are mitigating circumstances, injury or whatever, that account for Long’s apparent lack of athleticism? I have not heard anything particularly encouraging about him so far out of training camp so it seems that Landers’ model holds water with Long, at least preliminarily. Moreover, if the recently published (unofficial) depth chart is any indicator, Long certainly has his work cut out for him.

Let’s move on to the Chiefs’ final pick of the 2012 draft, WR Junior Hemingway (6’1″, 225 lbs).

As previously detailed in Part 4 of this series, here are the peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages (bolded metrics being the most important)  for WRs:

Short Shuttle: 4.26 sec; 39% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.49 sec; 26% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.01 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 36.05”; 83% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (66% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA)

Broad Jump: 121”; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (65% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA)

Forty yard dash: 4.53 sec; 83% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (76% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA)

Bench Reps: 15.14; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

A WR prospect should ideally get EPA’s in both the 40 Yard Dash and the Vertical Jump and then at least 2 more EPAs in addition. With 65% of 1st teamers receiving an EPA as well, the broad jump also seems to be a significant indicator.

Hemingway’s combine numbers were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 3.98 sec; EPA

Long Shuttle: No data available

Three Cone: 6.59 sec; EPA

Vertical Jump: 35.5″

Broad Jump: 124”; EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.53 sec;  

Bench Reps: 21; EPA

Okay, so what we see here is that Hemingway is pretty decent athlete, scoring 4 EPAs total but the downside, and it’s a pretty big downside at that, is that he did not score EPAs in either of the most critical attribute tests, namely the 40 Yard Dash and the Vertical Jump. In each case, only 17% of the prospects in Landers 5 year study were able to make 1st team without scoring an EPA in each respective category. Still, considering Hemingway did score 4 EPAs overall AND scored very respectably in both the 40 and vertical, I feel that he was without question worth a late 7th round pick all considered. To what degree he is able to parlay his above average athleticism onto the field remains to be seen.

That’s my Double Take, Addicts.

What do you think? Do you envision either of these players making some kind of impact, as Chiefs, over the next few years? What do you think it will take for these prospects to overcome the odds and be exceptions to the rule?

Lastly, sound off if you would be interested in seeing Landers’ predictive model put to the test at each position of the current roster (so, not just rookies).  Word of warning: if you’re looking for some insights into predicting quarterback success based on combine numbers and how Cassel and company stack up against their peers, that unfortunately is one position where Landers analysis showed virtually no correlation between Combine performance and Quarterback success– yet one more reason why drafting a “franchise” QB and recognizing “it” factor at that position continues to be a high risk proposition. On the other hand, evaluating say our WR corps and other critical positions might offer a little insight into team athleticism, the chances for long term success, and overall depth.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

For this week’s edition, we put the Chiefs’ 6th round draft pick, RB Cyrus Gray beneath the microscope of Joe Landers’ NFL Combine-based forecasting model.

With further ado, Landers’ RB peer average metrics (bolded being the most important) and first teamer EPA percentages.

Short Shuttle: 4.32 sec; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.73 sec; 25% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.17 sec; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 34.90”; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 117”; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.57 sec; 69% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 18.67; 38% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

To summarize, the leading indicator for RB’s is the 40 yard dash, wherein 69% of RB prospects who achieved an EPA in Lander’s 5 year data set, made first team within 5 years of being drafted. There are other significant, though less compelling, attribute scores which when assessed collectively can also point to success for a RB prospect. These are the Short Shuttle, the Vertical Jump, the Broad Jump, and the 3 Cone Drill.  From all this, Landers concludes that the optimal number of EPAs for a RB prospect is 4, one of which being the 40 yard dash.

Let’s see how Cyrus Gray’s (5’10″, 206 lbs) numbers shake out:

Short Shuttle: 4.28 sec (Pro Day result); EPA

Long Shuttle: Did not participate

Three Cone: 7.17 sec (7.14 sec on his Pro Day); EPA (between Combine and Pro Day scores, close enough)

Vertical Jump: 32.5”

Broad Jump: 114”

Forty yard dash: 4.47 sec; EPA 

Bench Reps: 21; EPA

First off, it is encouraging that Gray achieved an EPA in the most important attribute test of all, the 40 yard dash, and that he scored 4 EPAs overall (technically 3), which Landers concludes is the optimal number to achieve. Gray was projected by some scouts to go as high as the 3rd round; the Chiefs acquired him in the 6th.

Gray’s rep, coming in, is that of a versatile, selfless team player, loaded with intangibles (think Mike Vrabel or Thomas Jones, I guess). In addition to playing RB, Gray’s also experienced at playing FB, returning and covering kicks, shows good hands as a receiver, is reputedly a great pass blocker, and perhaps most importantly, well-suited for the ZBS. I’ve also read that Gray’s game speed is better than his track speed (but then again, that’s often heard about a lot of prospects).

Overall, as a sixth round selection, I think one has to feel pretty good about the potential that Cyrus Gray brings to the Chiefs’ table.  He offers a variety of positional skills which, if nothing else, should enhance the quality of our depth on offense, on special teams, and perhaps in the locker room too. Whether Gray is adequate insurance for Jamaal Charles if, god forbid, he gets hurt again or fails to return to form, is another question.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts?  Do you believe Cyrus Gray will make roster? Practice squad perhaps? If yes, do you see him displacing any current roster member? Who might that be? Assuming he makes roster, what role(s) do you envision him taking on during in his rookie campaign? Gray has some past injury concerns– do you believe those will continue to plague him in the NFL?

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

In today’s installment, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs’ 5th round draft pick, CB/S DeQuan Menzie’s turn to be measured, weighed, and assessed under Joe Landers’ forecasting model. In so doing, we’ll operate from the assumption that the Chiefs intend to work Menzie primarily as a Safety rather than as a Cornerback (noting that CB is the position for which Menzie was best known at Bama, playing opposite Dre Kirkpatrick).

We’ll start off by looking at Landers’ peer averages and first teamer EPA percentages (bolded metrics again being the most important) for the Safety position.:

Short Shuttle: 4.25 sec; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.61 sec; 23% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.04 sec; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 35.82”; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 119”; 29% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.58 sec; 74% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (70% & 69% of Safety prospects were two deepers or made roster, respectively) 

Bench Reps: 16.33; 31% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

 
Put simply, all a Safety prospect has to do is achieve one measly EPA, in the 40 yard dash, and he’s got a pretty good shot, statistically speaking, of making first team within his first 5 years  in the league. None of the other combine metrics seem to matter at all for this position. Landers basically sums this all up in saying that for safeties, “it’s all about fit.” 

So how did the Quan’s performance stand up against his peers?

DeQuan Menzie’s (5’11″, 202 lbs) Combine (*Pro Day) Metrics:

*Short Shuttle: 4.25 sec

*Long Shuttle: 12.05 sec

*Three Cone: 6.93sec; EPA

Vertical Jump: 33”

Broad Jump: 116”

Forty yard dash: 4.67 sec

Bench Reps: Did not participate

Oops.

You see, while Menzie did score one EPA, it unfortunately was not the right one. And if we are to put any stock in Joe Landers research, the forecast for DeQuan Menzie is that he will face an uphill battle, statistically speaking, to even make roster over the next few seasons.

Ouch.

All considered, I am not too sure I want to give DeQuan Menzie the responsibility of covering slot receivers and tight ends, or lunging at running backs for that matter, if he doesn’t have the speed to finish the play.  At the same time, Menzie’s rep is that of guy that can lay on a pretty good hit so there may be a spot for him as a 4th safety and on special teams.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts? Do you feel that Menzie will beat the odds, perhaps even start for the Chiefs someday? Perhaps a better question is, is he an upgrade over Shabby Piscatelli? Taking this further still, do you feel that DeQuan Menzie should be considered an exception to Landers’ predictive model and if so, why? Please put your responses in essay form, 500 words or less. You have 30 minutes. Begin now.

In Part 1 of this series, applying Joe Landers’ statistical analysis of NFL combine performances , we assessed the likelihood of Chiefs #1 draft pick Dontari Poe becoming a success in the NFL. In Part 2 and Part 3, we covered, respectively, the Chiefs 2nd round pick  OG Jeff Allen and 3rd round pick OT Donald Stephenson. It should come as little surprise then that in today’s installment, we’ll apply Landers’ combine performance analysis to the Chiefs 4th round pick, WR/PR Devon Wylie.

In Wylie’s case, we must first take note of a certain caveat; Wylie only participated in 4 events at the Combine, to wit, the 40 yard dash, the broad and vertical jumps, and bench reps. For a full assessment of the WR position using Landers methodology, we should have numbers from at least 2 other combine metrics. As such, I’ve elected to bend the rules a bit by drawing from Wylie’s Pro Day scores in the Short Shuttle and 3 Cone Drill. I’ll let readers be the judge as to whether, or to what degree,  Pro Day numbers contribute signficantly to this review of Devon Wylie. 

For the WR position, Landers concludes that if a prospect can exceed peer average in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump “their odds for success will be very good.” Landers further notes that his 5 year dataset showed that 83% of WR prospects who EPA’d in the 40 and vertical were starters in 2008.  That seems like a pretty impressive stat in and of itself. Overall, according to Landers, a WR prospect should score at least 4 EPAs and optimally 6.

Continuing on  -

Landers’ WR peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages (bolded metrics being the most important) :

Short Shuttle: 4.26 sec; 39% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.49 sec; 26% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.01 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 36.05”; 83% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (66% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA) 

Broad Jump: 121”; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (65% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA) 

Forty yard dash: 4.53 sec; 83% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (76% of two deep WRs also scored an EPA) 

Bench Reps: 15.14; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

To summarize, 40 yard dash and vertical jump scores are the leading indicators while broad jump and 3 cone are also strong, though lesser, indicators. 

Now for Devon Wylie’s (5’9″, 187 lbs) Combine Results:

Vertical Jump: 39”; EPA

Broad Jump: 124”; EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.39 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 17; EPA

Without even factoring in Wylie’s supplemental Pro Day metrics, we plainly see that he achieved EPAs in the 2 most signficant categories, the 40 and the vertical, and in one other significant category, the broad jump.  He further added an EPA for bench reps, bringing his total to 4 EPAs which, standing alone, suggests he has a strong likelihood of seeing success as a WR in the NFL based only on his 4 Combine results. Nevertheless, let’s go ahead and look at his Pro Day numbers in other three categories.

Devon Wylie’s Pro Day Results:

Three Cone: 6.82 sec; EPA (referencing Lander’s Combine based averages)

Short Shuttle: 4.16 sec; EPA (again referencing Landers’ Combine based averages)

 Long Shuttle: 11.50 sec; 

A popular knock on Pro Day scores is that they are done on friendly turf, in a much more relaxed and sanitized environment, thus favoring inflated results. Nevertheless, Wylie did not barely beat Landers’ Combine based averages in the Short Shuttle and 3 Cone, he beat them in pretty convincing fashion, thus perhaps discounting a bit the home turf criticism. As for the Long Shuttle score, which is not by any means horrible,I’ll simply draw from Landers observation that it is least important indicator for WRs, noting that 74% of 1st team WRs did not achieve EPAs in the Long Shuttle event.

All considered, I do not have any solid basis for believing that Wylie would not also have achieved EPAs in the 3 cone and Short Shuttle, had he done them at the Combine instead.

Regardless of how one slices it, Wylie appears to lie somewhere  between a very good to excellent NFL prospect based on his Combine and Pro Day results using Landers forecasting model. If we only take into consideration Wylie’s Combine results, he achieves the 4 EPA result that Lander’s concludes is a very strong indicator for WR success. If we also factor in Wylie Pro Day results, he achieves Landers’ optimal indicator of 6 EPAs. 

As long as he stays healthy (perhaps the biggest concern of all) and is properly utilized, Wylie certainly possesses the athletic qualities that one seeks in a wide receiver.  His size of course dictates that he will be featured primarily in the slot. Might Devon Wylie be the next Wes Welker? Or, might he turn out to be even better than Welker? In both cases, it seems the potential is there.

Going off of Landers’  predictive model, this is a pick one can’t help but feel pretty good about, especially considering he was not acquired until the 4th round. His upside potential as a slot receiver aside, I personally am even more encouraged about the potential he brings for making an immediate impact in the Chiefs return game, and I will be absolutely thrilled if that is how Chiefs’ fans first learn to fall in love with the guy. My hope is that his 4.39 speed, combined with his size and shiftiness (plus new-ness to the league), somehow catches our first six opponents enough offguard to put them consistently on their heels and the Chiefs in consistently good field position.  

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts? Do you similarly envision Devon Wylie being an immediate impact player, or difference maker, as a returner? What about his long term potential as a slot receiver? What, if any, are your concerns about Devon Wylie?  Sound off!

I guess I should first preface this review of Stephenson by pointing out that many Chiefs’ fans struggled to understand the need for, much less the wisdom of, picking a lineman after already spending the first two picks on linemen. I’d say the general/initial consensus about the drafting of  Stephenson was . . . not sexy. That said, let’s examine whether, if at all, Stephenson’s Combine performance statistically projects success for him as an NFL Tackle and see whether that changes anyone’s opinion about the pick.

Joe Lander’s overall assessment for the Offensive Tackle position can summarized by saying that an EPA in the 40 yard dash plus 4 more EPAs on top of that gives an OT prospect the best statistical recipe for NFL success at that position. Landers’ further notes that about 2/3rds of starting OT’s in his data set scored on EPA on the 40 yard dash.

Landers’ OT peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages:

Short Shuttle: 4.74 sec; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.83 sec; 44% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 29.24”; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 102”; 49% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.27 sec; 66% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 24.35; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Donald Stephenson’s (6’5″, 312 lbs) Combine Results:

Short Shuttle: 4.78 sec

Three Cone: 7.52 sec; EPA

Vertical Jump: 35.5”; EPA (whoa, some serious ups)

Broad Jump: 114”; EPA (dang son!) 

Forty yard dash: 4.94 sec; EPA (best time among all OTs at the combine)

Bench Reps: 19

One of the knocks on Stephenson coming into the draft was that he lacked elite strength. Here we seem to see that criticism show up in his rather lowish bench reps score. Aside from that, when he did perform strongly in an attribute test, he performed very strongly, but alas, came up .05 secs short (in the short shuttle) from achieving Landers’ ideal of 5 EPAs.  In other words, he was a mere 1/20 sec away from statistical glory.

The more I consider this pick, the more I like it. I feel that Stephenson just needs better technique and some after hours work in the gym. He has great frame for playing the position, tremendous speed and great athleticism to go with - give him a year under his belt and I can see Stephenson becoming a regular contributor to the rotation and perhaps even dominant addition for our ZBS.  

Coming into this draft, the Chiefs were talent thin at OT tackle depth. We lose either Branden Albert or Eric Winston and we’re in a world of hurt once again. Stephenson comes to us with major conference experience playing both the right and left side, and, as a third round pick up seems to me to be both a great value and a great fit for our system. In other words, I have to admit this pick has grown on me; I think Stephenson’s display of near perfect athleticism at the combine further underscores what I feel this guy will ultimately bring to the success of our offense.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts? 

Last week, I introduced Arrowhead Addict readers to Joe Landers’ approach to forecasting NFL success, or rather I should say the likelihood thereof, of a NFL draft prospect based on that prospect’s NFL Combine performance. I then used his methodology, first straight up, and then later factoring in a weight adjustment of my own, to assess the likelihood that the Chiefs first round draft pick, Dontari Poe, would be a successful player in the NFL.

To recap, Landers compiled physical attribute scores from 2005 to 2008 and developed peer averages for each attribute at each position. If a prospect performed above average at his position on a Combine metric, he scored an EPA (Exceeded Peer Average) which Landers uses an indicator of future NFL success. Landers’ primary definition of success was whether the prospect made first team in the 2008 season.

There was at least one reasoned criticism about what I did last week in analyzing Dontari Poe. In order to get more of what I felt would be an apples to apples comparison, I added my own tweak to Poe’s assessment by focusing only on Combine scores for DTs who weighed 330 lbs or more. For the record, Poe himself weighed in at 346 lbs and I felt, due to the laws of physics, it was important to make this distinction and try to draw a line somewhere because the prototypical, ideal nose tackle is generally in the 330 plus weight range. The criticism to my approach was that rather than focusing on weight, I should “redo” my analysis by compiling and correlating scores of true Nose Tackles rather than just DT “fatties” without regard to whether they played NT or 43DT. Two non-fatty NT examples were provided – Jay Ratliff (292 lbs) and Barry Cofield (304 lbs).

I’ll address this criticism first generally and then specifically.

To ignore weight as a factor is to ignore physics as a factor.  Because WRs, DBs, and to a lesser extent RBs and LBs, are typically at the lighter end of the NFL weight scale, they tend to be the fastest players on the field. At the other end of the weight scale are OL and DL “uglies” who tend to be the slowest of all players. The reason for this is simple physics. What’s more, a player who lacks speed, particularly linemen, can more than compensate for this with the right combination of power and quickness (noting that quickness is not the same as speed).

At a more specific level, not all NTs are created equal.  Jay Ratliff, for example, is not really used to anchor the middle, eat blockers, and/or collapse the pocket. Rather, he tries to use his combination of size and speed to slide through a gap and he typically comes in on passing downs for that purpose rather than play as a 3 down NT. Similarly, you will rarely see Barry Cofield, when he’s healthy, take on multiple blockers, and when he does, he routinely gets crushed.  In other words, neither of these guys are the type of NT that a guy like Romeo Crennel would want to feature in his 3-4 scheme. Dontari Poe, for his part, looks to possess an ideal combination of size and athleticism to ultimately be a 3 down NT.

Enough rehashing.  Ready for some more Landers-type assessment of our other draft picks?

Jeff Allen, OG*

Landers’ OG peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages:

Short Shuttle: 4.72 sec; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.84 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 28.45”; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 101”; 47% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.31 sec; 53% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 25.34; 41% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

*  I say OG, rather than OT, because guard is the position that Allen is expected to play for the Chiefs. Besides, scoring EPAs at the OT position is more challenging than those at the OG position.

In the case of OGs, as was also the case with DTs, the most important test to score an EPA on is the 3 cone drill, wherein 2/3rds of 2008 1^st teamers did so within the 2005-2008 study period. Lander’s goes on to conclude the greatest correlation indicator for OG success is for a prospect to score an EPA on the 3 cone and then at least 3 EPAs beyond that.

Jeff Allen’s (6’4”, 307 lbs) Combine Numbers:

Short Shuttle: 4.9 sec

Three Cone: 8.01 sec

Vertical Jump: 27.5”

Broad Jump: 102”; EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.28 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 26; EPA

As you can see, while Allen scored 3 EPAs, he nevertheless undershot on the leading indicator, the 3 Cone drill. What I take away from this is that, statistically speaking, the likelihood of Allen becoming a starting OG is not as great as would the case had he scored at least .17 seconds better on the 3 cone. Whether Jeff Allen proves himself to be a statistical exception, and there are always are some, remains to be seen.

Next week, the Chiefs 3^rd round pick, OT Donald Stephenson.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you take away from this, Addicts? Does Joe Landers’ forecasting model raise any new questions for you about Allen’s future as a Chief? How soon, if at all, do you expect to see Jeff Allen replacing Ryan Lilja as a starter?

I’m quite certain that right about now most of you are getting pretty frothy about all the undrafted rookie free agents the Chiefs are looking at and/or signing so I’ll apologize up front if my offering today takes away from such unbridled excitement. Nevertheless, I am what I am and I do what I do.  So if you’ve been feeling a little neglected, perhaps even frustrated, as a result of going without my statistical emissions for awhile, today I render unto you an opportunity to once again revel in statistical bliss. Yep, the cold, hard, analytical world of Double D is back. Jones away.

What got me started on all this was a recommended reading link from Mike Tanier over at Football Outsiders. The name of the site is Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services. Maybe some of you are already familiar with the Ourlads folks but discovering it was all fresh to me. Long story short, on the home page of Ourlads I happened across a pdf link under the heading of “Relevance Of The Combine”, penned by Joe Landers back in 2009. Hmm, thought I.

In a nutshell, Landers compiled and studied combine results for all positions over a 4 year span, 2005 through 2008, to see whether, or to what degree, combine performance was an indicator of future success in the NFL.  His leading definition of success was whether the prospect played 1^st team during the 2008 season. What he determined, among other things and perhaps not surprisingly, is that certain measurables tend to be more important than others relative to each position.  For example, doing well in the 40 yard dash, broad jump, and vertical jump appear to be important for the wide receiver position as predictors of future NFL success.

The foundational element of Landers analysis was to calculate peer averages for each attribute test at each position. He then compared a prospect’s performance to the peer average for that position and simply came up with a metric he termed “Exceeded Peer Average” or EPA for short.  What he essentially learned was that, depending upon position, if a prospect landed in the right EPA bucket(s), and padded on enough extra EPAs in other, less important, attribute tests that the odds of that prospect making 1^st team were noticeably greater.

After wading through and understanding Landers’ analysis, the obvious next step for yours truly was of course to see how well the Chiefs’ 2012 draft class fared against their peers and what players to feel most hopeful about. Right?

Let’s begin with our #1 draft pick shall we?

At the DT position, Landers notes that there were 5 prospects who EPA’d in all 6 attribute tests for that position. In 2008, all 5 of those prospects were starters. Interestingly enough, DT turns out to be the only position where exceeding the peer average on all metrics for the position ultimately translated into a starting job.  

The rest of the breakdown goes like this:  12% of prospects with 5 EPAs started, 11% with 4 EPAs started, 12% with 3 EPAs started, 12% with 2 EPAs started, 14% with 1 EPAs started, and 11% with no EPAs started. All in all, short of scoring 6 EPAs, exceeding peer averages at the combine does not appear to be a very good indicator that a DT is likely to become a starter. Still, Landers goes on to note that the risk of bust decreases for DTs who score in the 3 to 5 EPA range, wherein the odds are fairly good for a prospect scoring in that range to at least be either 2 Deep or on the roster. Landers ultimately forecasts future success for a DT prospect to most likely involve an EPA in the 3 cone and in at least 4 other categories.

Using Landers numbers from his 2005 to 2008 dataset (which have probably changed moderately), the peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages for DTs were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.61 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.67 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 30.10”; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 106”; 52% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.11 sec; 61% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 26.43; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

From this, Landers surmised that an EPA score in the 3 Cone test appears to be the most important indicator of all for DTs wherein 65% of 2008 starters achieved the EPA level as prospects.  Not really too surprising given the need for quickness within close confines that is typically demanded by this position.

Okay so given all that, how did Dontari Poe score relative to his peers? Well, before I answer that question, I think it is probably important and fair to take into consideration that the average weight of a DT prospect is around 305 lbs wherein Poe weighed in at 346 lbs. In other words, Landers does not distinguish between the typically bigger NTs versus typically smaller 43 DTs. To paraphrase Sir Isaac Newton, gravity is such a drag. More on that later.

Dontari Poe’s results were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.56 sec; EPA

Three Cone: 7.9 sec

Vertical Jump: 29.5”

Broad Jump: 105”

Forty Yard Dash: 4.98 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 44; EPA

 In summary, Poe scored EPAs in 3 metrics, which Landers views as respectable, but came up a bit short in the most important of all, the 3 Cone Drill. So what can we take away from all this?

While it might add to our optimism to know that Dontari Poe exceeded peer averages on all 6 metrics, or at least on the 3 cone and 4 other categories, the reality is that Dontari Poe is a signficantly larger guy than the average member of his peer group. Put simply, he has about 40 extra pounds to lug around compared to the average DT. Think of it this way, strap an extra 40 pounds on your back, and see if you can run the three cone drill just as fast as you did without the extra weight.

Poe’s bigness couldn’t help but weigh on my thinking. Not satisfied that Poe’s numbers represented an apples to apples comparison, I decided I to look up recent combine scores of DTs, sorted by weight. Poe, at 346,is the 5^th heaviest DT to weigh in, being bested on the scales only by the likes of Ahmad Childress, Terrence Cody and Alameda Ta’amu. Scanning the names of other heavyweight contenders, you’ll also find names like Paul Soliai, Kenrick Ellis, Junior Siavii (oops), Haloti Ngata, BJ Raji, Jerrell Powe, and Phil Taylor. Ah, apples to apples.

Now, within this group, I found that Poe scored impressively well compared to the other apples. For example, Poe’s 3 cone time matched that of BJ Raji’s and exceeded, by .07 seconds, that of Haloti Ngata’s. I took this is a step further and averaged the 3 cone scores of all DTs weighing 330 lbs or more. The result? 8.00 secs. Using my own apples to apples, perhaps simplistic, comparison dataset, I unabashedly conclude that Dontari Poe also scored an EPA in the 3 cone drill for the Nose Tackle position.

That’s now makes 4 EPAs for Poe, for those keeping track.

DD’s Broad Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 100”. Chalk up another EPA for Poe. That’s 5.  

DD’s Vertical Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 25.76”. And there you go, another EPA for Poe, thus giving him a perfect score of 6 among his NT peers, at least by my reckoning.

Given Landers observation that all 5 DTs who attained a perfect score of 6 EPAs in his analysis ended up as 1^st teamers, I can’t help but feel a bit more optimistic about Poe’s future manning the interior of the Chiefs DL? Eventually anyway.

Seeing as how this post has gotten a bit lengthy, I’ll leave discussion of our remaining 2012 draft picks for future installment(s). Stay tuned, I promise you a surprise or two.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you think Addicts? Ready to be a Poe Boy now? 

Through the draft and free agency, the Chiefs appear to have taken a few decisive steps towards addressing some of their biggest offseason needs. Through free agency they made a very necessary and very significant upgrade at Right Tackle in signing Eric Winston, arguably the most important move of all. They also made a rather bold (some would argue questionable) move, in using their #11 draft pick on the massive, athletic, Combine Wonderkind nose tackle Dontari Poe; deemed long on potential while seemingly short on production, generally speaking.

In free agency they also acquired CB Stanford Routt (to replace Brandon Carr), the once promising QB Brady Quinn,  veteran Kevin Boss at TE, and RB/FB Peyton Hillis. The Chiefs further backfilled on OL depth needs  in the 2^nd & 3^rd rounds of the draft, plus added at least a couple of players who could very well improve the Chiefs’ special teams production  among other things. Such offseason moves, along with the return of key players out with injuries last season, ongoing development of younger players, all tend to suggest there is ample reason for optimism if not a bit excitement for the upcoming 2012 season and beyond.

Well, almost.

I’m not looking to be a downer here with what I’m about to say. There is still one position on this team where objective minded souls can have a lingering and legitimate concern. Unfortunately, it is the most important position of all, to wit, our starting quarterback.  Unless Brady Quinn finds a way to retap his college mojo this summer, or Ricky Stanzi absolutely wows in training camp, it remains a pretty safe bet that Matt Cassel is all but guaranteed to be Chiefs starting quarterback come fall.

I’ll be honest. I don’t really believe in Matt Cassel. I see in him as a guy whose best season basically saw him serve as a middle man for Casey Weigmann and Jamaal Charles. I consider MC’s mechanics in the play action to be substandard, his fakes unconvincing, his decision making in the pass game generally atrocious, and his ability to carry this team on his back if needed completely lacking. In short, he’s not a guy I’m ready to trust to lead the Chiefs to championship.

He’s just not.

Of course Cassel’s apologists are quick to point out that the year prior to his coming Kansas City, he won 11 games with the Patriots. Well whoop dee frikkin doo. That same team won 16 straight the prior season (technically 18-0 prior to the Super Bowl).  All that tells me is that Matt Cassel could be viewed as a guy who will lose you at least 5 games on an otherwise near perfect team. Much as I love my guys, the Chiefs can not (yet) realistically be considered a near perfect team.

In case you have not picked up on it yet, I feel it is reasonable to argue that the Chiefs, not for lack of trying perhaps, did not meaningfully address a very big need at the quarterback position this offseason. That said, are we out of options at this point?

Maybe, maybe not?

One NFL backup quarterback whose career I’ve held a long interest in is still a free agent. This is a guy who while in college, put up impressive passing numbers and rushing numbers. He was among the leading candidates to win the Heismann Trophy his senior year in college. Right up until he blew out his ACL that is.

Anybody know who I am talking about yet?

I am (of course?) referring to former U of Oregon standout Dennis Dixon. Remember him? Primarily because of injury concerns he ended up being taken in the 5^th round of the 2008 draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers, being variously shuffled around the Steelers depth charts behind the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, and Byron Leftwich.  Dixon also sat out the 2011 season due a torn meniscus.

As of this writing, Dennis Dixon remains an unrestricted free agent, looking for an opportunity to prove himself once again a winner. As you can probably imagine, I would love to see Dennis Dixon take his shot with the Chiefs, combining a team that loves to run and with a guy who can certainly run when needed and oh who can, by the way, toss an accurate deep pass or two .

Hell, Dixon showing what he’s got as a potential Chief seems to me a whole lot better idea than just standing pat at this point. Besides, what harm is there in amping up the QB competition another notch?

That’s my Double Take Addicts.

Enough of my rambling. I really want to hear your take on Dennis Dixon as a potential Chief?

There seems to be a lot of misconceptions and–dare I say–anger afloat concerning the Chiefs first round draft pick NT Dontari Poe. I think the biggest misconception in currency is that the only reason Dontari Poe got 1^st round attention is because he posted eye-popping combine numbers.  Put differently, because he performed so strongly in Indy, he was immediately labeled a “Workout Warrior,” and as a result, drew upon himself greater scrutiny, was assumed suspect for performing so well, and thus became increasingly relegated by many into the “destined to be a bust” category in typical knee-jerk, mob mentality fashion.

Please allow me to at least set the record straight on this one. Well before Dontari Poe made noise at the NFL Combine, the consensus view held that he was the best Nose Tackle prospect in this draft and almost universally assumed to be a 1st round draft candidate.  In other words, the Combine did not transform Dontari Poe into a 1st round pick. It merely underscored an already popular sentiment that Poe’s physical impressiveness (is that a word?) combined with his elite speed and athleticism all pointed to a well-founded belief that Poe possessed the right tools to be a dominating force in the NFL. In this respect at least, Poe is not unlike a lot of 1^st round prospects: either you believe or you don’t.

For the record, I had Poe as the Chiefs’ 1st round draft pick in the mock draft that I posted way back on March 15^th, well before the Combine.  I’m happy and proud to admit that I’ve been on the Poe bandwagon ever since and fully expect to see him develop into a very scary, disruptive force under the talented guidance of Romeo Crennel and co. Add to that with the fact that Crennel was absolutely gushing about landing Poe, which highly suggests to me that Romeo Crennel is going to make it his personal mission to see that Poe succeeds. To that end, I think we can all agree that Crennel is anything but an idiot when it comes to identifying defensive talent and especially when it comes to coaching defensive linemen. Crennel now has his guy, so I say let’s respect what RAC brings to the party and embrace this pick until given reason to feel otherwise.

Nose Tackle has been the most pressing need for the Chiefs defense ever since they converted to the 3-4 scheme. In my opinion, Poe’s size, strength, and quickness fit very closely to what you look for in a zero technique. I know it’s been said a million times over, but for this position, the ability to occupy multiple blockers and collapse the pocket is way more important than just racking up tackles and sacks. In other words: don’t let Dontari Poe’s lack of stats and lack of post-season recognitions convince you that he won’t be put in a position do exactly what he needs to do to make the Chiefs’ defense once again feared by all.

I also think that Crennel responded to the “lack of production” argument in a very direct and comprehensive way. He pointed out that Poe, while at Memphis, was asked to be a “jack of all trades,” essentially playing/covering all positions on the DL and was thus never really put into a position where he  could be the master of one. This simply confirms what I already believed about Poe’s college football experience. He worked under multiple coaches within an inferior, talent-deprived league without any kind of real support around him or meaningful guidance above him. The situation and opportunity for Poe has now taken a dramatic turn for the better. Have faith.

On a slightly different level, I also find this pick absolutely fascinating and it says a few things to me.

First off, Scott Pioli is not cut entirely of “game tape” cloth when it comes to the NFL draft, as many seem to believe.  On the surface at least, it would seem that in Poe’s case, that “game tape” was barely a consideration (unless position versatility became the deciding factor, but I rather doubt that to be the case). While one can find examples of Poe flashing greatness, there is not really some great body of work one can point to. Again, I have to go back to what I just I said – Pioli and Crennel’s evaluation suggest that they must see in him an Indy racer that, to date, has only been taken out in a quiet cul-de-sac by a student driver.

Secondly, whether you love it or hate it, this selection is anything but boring. It is, echoing the words of Big Matt, a “swing for the fences” approach by Pioli. I don’t see how anyone can’t help but love that. As much as I personally wanted Poe to be the selection, I didn’t actually think it would happen because I figured that despite Poe’s high upside, his apparent lack of college level production would ultimately dump him into Pioli’s “way too risky” bin. This pick now tells me that Pioli indeed has some real gambler in him; this pick, were it to fail, will no doubt put Pioli’s neck square on the chopping block.

Thirdly, Scott Pioli must really respect Romeo Crennel’s knowledge of the game, ability to develop talent and overall input when it comes to player assessment. I just have a hard time seeing this pick as happening without RAC saying, in a very large way, “that’s the one guy I want.” I am sure we’ll probably never know if, given the choice between Kuechly and Poe, which the Chiefs’ would have preferred, but Crennel’s enthusiastic response to this pick seems to suggest that Poe was quite likely the Chiefs’ number one target going in, at least as far as realistically obtainable players go.

Additional reflections on the draft so far:

I was really surprised to see 4 QBs taken in the first round, but I at least understand the reasoning behind those moves.

I was equally surprised to see only 4 WRs in the 1^st round. Back in March, because this position was far and away the most in need for teams around the league, I predicted that 6 would be off the board by the end of the 1^st round. Albeit the fact that 4 1^st rounds WRs is (I believe) more than we’ve seen in recent years, it is a(n upward) trend that I fully expect to see continue for the foreseeable future.

I’m really excited about our 2^nd round prospects. The available day two talent in this year’s draft seems quite good.  Moreover, round 2 seems like a can’t-miss opportunity for the Chiefs to upgrade the roster in a significant way.  Indeed, coming away with any of the following players, in no particular order would put a big smile on my face:

WR Stephen Hill

WR Reuben Randle

WR Mohammed Sanu

C/G Peter Konz

OT/G Cordy Glenn

G Amini Silatulo

CB Janoris Jenkins

TE Dwayne Allen

TE Coby Fleener

That’s my Double Take Addicts.

What’s your take?

I got to wondering the other day. Other than quarterback, which position, drafted in the first round, is most likely to provide dramatic improvement to a team in terms of immediate help as well as long term success?

Now it can be argued that Running Back is the next most important position after Quarterback but in terms of committing a first round pick on a RB, I find it difficult to overlook a few things in that consideration. First off, the average shelf of a starting RB is something like 3-4 years so long term team success through that position seems highly unlikely especially given that we’re talking about spending a 1^st round draft pick. Second, quality RBs, historically speaking, have been found all throughout the draft; not just the 1st round. Third, the NFL is increasingly becoming a passing league so the significance of the offensive run game is becoming a less prominent feature of the NFL’s evolution.

All that being said, I feel I should probably put this analysis into at least a little bit of context in terms of what the Chiefs might, should, or could do with their first pick in the upcoming draft. I consider it highly doubtful that the Chiefs would commit the #11 overall pick for either a RB or a QB … I could be wrong about that though. If for some reason Trent Richardson is still sitting there when we pick, I suppose it would be very tempting to take him but I imagine it would be a lot more tempting to trade that pick because no doubt there would be a lot of teams chomping at the bit to get their hands on a weapon of that caliber. I also believe that you don’t use the #11 pick on a QB who comes with very little experience and a lot of question marks, and is at best a development project. This is especially true if you’re a team that still has a little bit of infrastructure work yet to do.

So, I’m just going to assume that the Chiefs are not going to use the #11 pick on either a QB or a RB. That being the case, if I’m Scott Pioli looking to bring the most value to my team with a top 15 draft pick, I’m probably going to look at my roster and think in terms of both immediate and long term impact, hopefully identifying that one player most likely to bring solid football skills, a high level, high motor competitor, with leadership traits who can contribute on day one. Another, perhaps lesser, goal is to go with a pick that allows me the luxury of creating quality depth for an already solid roster . . . i.e., a talented, core player that can challenge another good player for the starting spot thus facilitating better talent in your depth.

Now I know I’ve said I would be most excited if the Chiefs selected Dontari Poe with the #11 pick and I haven’t wavered from that hope. I say this only because selecting Poe would signal to me that Pioli, Crennel, and the scouting department have done their homework and gotten a player they believe will transform our defense into a dominant, elite level for years to come. Nearly every major media scout and mock draft has Poe going in the top half of the draft so outside of AA, there remains a massive amount of respect for what Poe is capable of. However, for a variety of reasons, including those well articulated here on AA and elsewhere, I don’t honestly expect Poe to be the pick. It’s just a hope on my part that he is.

Barring a Poe “surprise” pick, I feel compelled to return to my original point about selecting a talented, competitive player, other than QB or RB, who can come in to play an important role for the team and who possesses the greatest potential to make a significant impact immediately and long term.  Barring a trade, a popular sentiment here at AA and among a lot of draft mockers, is that the Chiefs will respond to that challenge by selecting either OG David DeCastro or ILB Luke Kuechly. Each is regarded the consensus top rate talents at their respective positions and deservedly so.

Let’s first consider the importance of the guard position to the Chiefs in more or less general terms.

Now I’ll be the first to admit that the Chiefs interior OL has been extremely soft for many years now. As a matter of fact, I’ve been leading the charge and very vocal in pointing this fact out in many of my regular season DVOA weekly stat reviews. In other words, there is no question in my mind that the Chiefs would benefit significantly by upgrading the guard position. I would be actually pleased if that’s the direction the Chiefs took, even if it meant using a #11 overall pick for a “once-in-a-decade” guard like David DeCastro to do so.

Nevertheless before we start high fiving each other about using our first pick on a guard phenom, ask yourself this – just how important is the guard position in general terms and to the Chiefs in particular? In terms of positional value on any OL, I believe the order of importance goes Left Tackle, Right Tackle, then Center. Individual talent aside, guard sits a little lower on the totem pole relative to other positions.  What’s more, unlike say Left Tackle, Pro Bowl type guards can be found all throughout the draft, rounds 1 through 7 and even in free agency.  So it’s not like you can’t find a really good guard after the first round.

Another question that merits consideration is what kind of an offense are you? In the Chiefs case, we are decidedly a running team. Taking this a step further, one must ask exactly what kind of running team are you?

Well, with Jamaal Charles as the feature back, our backfield is not really set up to be a steady “downhill, between the tackles” attack but rather one that finds its greatest success when using Charles’ quickness to bounce outside the tackles where isolated linebackers and secondary must work to chase him down. To that end, I assert that having Eric Winston as our Right Tackle will have more of a positive impact for this particular team’s offense, not just in the running game, but also in the passing game, than would any rookie guard no matter how talented that guard might happen to be.

 So let’s at least acknowledge that while upgrading guard is an important need, it is probably not the biggest addressable need for the Chiefs, and all things being equal, a rather expensive way, committing a high 1^st round pick, towards that level of need. I mean I acknowledge that there is a somewhat romantic notion to the idea of possessing “the best” OL in the NFL by selecting David DeCastro but is that really a practical perspective to insist upon in the Chiefs’ case? Moreover, is David DeCastro the one and only means by which we upgrade the guard position through the draft? As if there will never, ever be another opportunity to do so? I highly doubt it; nay, I would argue that when it comes to the guard position, simply getting better is probably good enough for the Chiefs to succeed.

Moving on.

In putting this piece together, the thought crossed my mind that it might be interesting to look at what position, drafted in the first round, most commonly resulted in post season recognition via Player of the Year (POY) awards and also Rookie of the Year (ROY) awards. On offense, such awards (almost) invariably go to either a QB or a RB. On defense, while a bit more varied amongst roles, the dominant positional leader for those honors lies with linebackers.  

Since 1971, LB’s have been awarded DPOY 14 times, DE’s 9 times, DT’s 7 times, CB’s and S’s 5 times each.  However on the DROY front, going back to 1967, a LB has won it 23 times, a DE 8 times, a CB 6 times, and a DT times.  Note as well that 1^st round picks at each of these positions are well represented among post-season honors. In the case of LB’s in particular, they effectively comprise 18 of the 23 DROYs and 9 of the 14 DPOYs. 

Of the 14 LB’s who’ve won the DPOY, 4 times they led the overall #1 defense, 4 times led the #2 defense, 3 times led the #3 defense, and the remaining 3 playing for the #6, #7 and #13 ranked defenses.  Continuing, 5 of these LB DPOY honorees led their defenses to Superbowl Championships, 3 played in Conference Championship games, and the rest (excluding Lawrence Taylor during the playoff-less 1985 strike season) were on teams who experienced varying levels of post-season success.

See where I’m going?  I’ll spell it out anyway. I would argue that by taking a high quality LB in the first round, assuming history is any indication, the chances of you upgrading your defense significantly, immediately, and long term appear to be much greater than can be said for any other position on defense.

Now let’s talk specifically about the Chiefs for a minute and what ILB Luke Kuechly might bring to the table.  The Chiefs have the makings of a decent linebacking corps but by no means one that could be characterized as elite. Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson are established veterans of course and Justin Houston seemed to be flashing some promise towards the end of last season. ILB Jovan Belcher has developed into a pretty solid tackler but also lacks quickness and good ball instincts and is a real liability in the short passing game – an area of significant underachievement for the Chiefs. In short, Belcher is a good role player but really the weak link among the Chiefs linebacking corps. Belcher however is very valuable to the Chiefs as a depth player if his position can be upgraded. 

Lest we forget, the Chiefs gave up an average of 132 yards per game last year. Clearly, stopping the run remains a major area of concern for this team going into the 2012 season.

Luke Kuechly, for his part, is first and foremost a tackling machine, being #1 or #2 in the country, in solo tackles and total tackles for all of his 3 years at Boston College. Kuechly is a well seasoned defensive leader type with lots of tape and gawdy college stats who will likely contribute on day one, making him an immediate and certain upgrade over Belcher for an important area of concern with the Chiefs defense. His speed and ranginess, his nose for the ball, his elite tackling skills, his motor and work ethic all suggest he is the type of player who will serve as a major asset in the Chiefs effort to stop the run.  He is also very likely to be the type of player who could even challenge the likes of Derrick Johnson if push came to shove. Yes, I just said that.

Kuechly doesn’t just come with tape. At the combine, he impressed with 4.5-ish speed and a 38” vertical. Bottom line, he is both effective and athletic. There is a little doubt in my mind that he will be the defensive quarterback of whichever NFL team drafts him. I also expect him to be the kind of impact player one looks for early in the draft and a guy whose name that one can expect to see singled out and recognized when all is said and done.

On the downside, if Kuechly has any weakness, it’s in coverage particularly against RBs. He does seem to hold his own in zone coverage and against TE’s however. In any case, the Chiefs secondary, especially with the addition of Eric Berry, have gotten a lot better against the short pass. Besides, when it comes to linebacker coverage skills, I believe that has more to do with being in position – a skill that can be easily taught and developed through effective coaching. Again, the biggest ongoing weakness of the Chiefs defense has been stopping the run. Kuechly addresses that particular weakness, and more, in spades.

That’s my Double Take, Addicts.

If forced to choose between DeCastro and Kuechly, which player, at pick #11, makes the most sense to you and why?

Addicts, check out the new banner. Pretty sweet. Mucho props to Tony Rangel for putting that together for me.

It’s April, which is of course NFL Draft month, and all the hype, excitement, and anticipation that comes with all that.  Everybody has their own ideas about who they would love to see the Chiefs select with that first draft pick, whether it be directly using the #11 pick, or by trading up or down a few slots. After the draft, because no team gets exactly every player they want, comes another brief flurry of activity in the free agent market.  This activity concentrates mainly on the residue of players who were passed over in the first go round because teams’ interest in such players is typically contingent on whether such teams filled this or that positional need through the draft.

I’ll begin by reiterating that Dontari Poe is still the one player that I would be truly excited to see the Chiefs draft with the #11 pick. It’s not that I don’t recognize Poe’s apparent lack of game tape (while in the same breath noting that Ryan Leaf had wonderful game tape). It’s not that I don’t recognize that Poe may not be as much of a sure bet as players such as, say, David DeCastro or Luke Kuechly. It’s mainly because I believe that if the Chiefs select Poe, I will interpret that to mean that they believe that, in the very capable hands of Romeo Crennel and company, they have identified in Poe a transformative, game changing, impact kind of player capable of being the centerpiece of our defense for the next decade or more.

Another part of me wants Poe simply because I don’t want to say be saying a year or two, much the way I feel about players like BJ Raji and Phil Taylor, to name just two . . .  “Damn! We could have that guy!!!” I guess my feeling about this is probably at the opposite end of the spectrum of those who loathe the very thought of the Chiefs using their first pick on any defensive lineman. I like to think of this particular perspective as “Post Traumatic Stress Simsdrome” because every time the suggestion of taking a defensive lineman is brought up, they are usually the first to start drawing references and comparisons to Ryan Sims.

Btw, I don’t put a whole lot of stock in Todd McShay’s roller coaster opinion about Dontari Poe. This is after all the same Todd McShay who last year claimed Blaine Gabbert was “more polished” than Cam Newton.

All that being said, if Pioli et entourage opt to pass on Poe, I feel I will at least have some understanding as to the reasons why and be content with whomever they select. Unless they reach for Ryan Sims. Or worse, Ryan Tannehill.

Depending on who the Chiefs go with in the first round, I will probably be equally as interested to see who they select in the 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th rounds. I’m sold on Branden Weeden in the 2^nd round should the opportunity arise. CB or OL (rotational players) in the 2^nd round also appeals to me. If not Weeden in the 2^nd then maybe Osweiler in the 3^rd? Maybe that NT “bowling ball” Nick Jean-Baptiste or perhaps a dual threat, a la WR/KR Joe Adams or CB/KR Chase Minnifield in the 4^th? Our return game is among the weakest in the league and I don’t accept that that is entirely the fault of the either Special Teams coaching or the return unit’s blocking.

I also would like to mention Glenn Dorsey for a second. I have a funny feeling he will really shine this year. First and probably foremost, he should be highly motivated to play well considering he is set to enter free agency 2013. For another, I just believe he has it in him and is due. Anybody besides me feel this way?

Speaking of free agency, and revisiting a thought from my first paragraph, if the Chiefs do not, for whatever reason, select a future franchise quarterback in the early rounds of this draft, I personally would like to see them offer Dennis Dixon a modest contract. I’ve always liked Dixon going back to his Oregon Ducks days. Heismann favorite until the ACL, all this time sitting behind Roethlisberger learning the NFL way; I’d really like to see what he’s got.  Also, if we don’t take Poe, I certainly hope we meaningfully address NT through free agency. My personal preferences being Sammie Lee Hill and Aubrayo Franklin, in that order.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts?

Like the Weezer song in the title of this post, right now feels like a party atmosphere for the Kansas City sports scene (loving my Jayhawks unexpected trip to the New Orleans for instance . . . also digging how the Royals are showing some longterm potential for greatness). Most significantly, it’s an especially exciting time to be a Chiefs fan.

For me, as I’m sure is the case with many of us diehards, it’s been a long time since I felt this excited about an upcoming season. Among other things, the draft coverage here on AA this past week or so has been nothing short of outstanding in my opinion. Seems like every post is well thought out, well put together, and an absolute must read.

I’m excited about the return of Jamaal Charles and what that could mean to our offense. I’m excited about the return of Eric Berry and what that could mean to our defense. I’m excited to see what Romeo Crennel does with this team.

I’m excited about the growth and development of our roster. I’m excited about the addition of free agents Eric Winston (still pinching myself), Peyton Hillis (a guy I originally wanted us to draft),  Stanford Routt (yes I am enthused about this signing for a variety of reasons), and yes, Brady Quinn (I remember on draft day thinking  . . . oh my god this guy may actually fall to the Chiefs!).

I’m excited about Peyton Manning playing in the AFC West because that means we’ll get to face him twice a year . . . imagine the kind of gameday buzz that will generate at Arrowhead?

At this moment, I am particularly excited about the draft and to see how all that plays out. We’re actually seem to be at a place where we’re for once not desperate for this or that player but instead possess the ability to improve our roster in any number of different ways in the first round and beyond.  There are so many possibilities and every one of them seems incredibly positive.

If we draft DeCastro, we’ll have what promises to be one of the best OL’s in the league. If we draft Poe, it means Crennel and Pioli have thoroughly analyzed the guy and reached the conclusion that they got THE guy and by implication, somebody who they believe will be instrumental in taking our defense to the dominant level? If we draft Kuechly, we’ll most likely be looking at one of the best combo coverage/pressure linebacking corps in the league . . . for many years to come mind you. 

If we draft another pass rusher, so much the better!! I mean the possibilities boggle the imagination and not a one seems awful to me.  There’s the possibility we could even trade down and gain an extra early pick or two. How cool.

It’s also conceivable that we draft a high ceiling quarterback on the first day of the draft. As well, we’ll have the ability to add quality depth to our secondary if we want. We could land a promising receiver or tight end.  

Adding to our stable of running backs certainly seems like a strong possibility. And let’s not forget special teams either because you know there will be opportunities to upgrade our lackluster return game and coverage units on days two and three of the draft.

Once the draft is over, we can once again turn our attention to free agency.  There’s certainly some still intriguing names out there to consider depending on how the draft shakes out for us.  How about bringing one-time Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon into the qb competition mix? There’s also still guys like Sammie Lee Hill, guys who’s NFL careers may be on verge of greatness.

I’m not saying there’s not remaining areas of critical concern for this team, I’m just saying a lot of key pieces seem to be falling into place pretty nicely of late, our options and opportunities seem especially promising and overall the future looks bright.

That’s my Double Take.

Addicts, how do you feel about where this team is right now? What do you think our roster will end up looking like over the next couple of months? Who or what are you most looking forward to?

In case you missed it yesterday, Andrew Crocker put together some interesting and creative ideas about what the Chiefs could do with their #11 pick. I agree with much of what he had to say.  Among other things, without a doubt, NT and QB remain our two most pressing offseason needs. At this point, it does not appear that anything more will be done to address the QB situation which leaves us to consider what to do about that rather prominent hole in the heart of our defense?

The acquisition of Eric Winston, more than anything, provides the Chiefs with a nice bit of flexibility heading into the draft – never a bad thing.  The way things seem to be shaping up, we’ll go into the draft with Branden Abert, Ryan Lilja, Rodney Hudson, Jon Asamoah, and Eric Winston as our starting offensive line. While I’ve been as critical as anyone about the combination of Lilja and Wiegmann not getting it done in the running game, I nevertheless now feel pretty good about where things stand now with our offensive line, even with Lilja as our starting RG.  I would like, more than anything, to use this draft to add OL depth.

As promising as our OL situation now seems to be, the same really cannot be said about the state of our  defensive line. Resigning Amon Gordon was a necessary move but beyond that we’ve got both current and future problems that need to be addressed sooner rather than later.  For example, our current ability to defend in short yardage situations, particularly through the interior gaps, ranks near the bottom of the league according to Football Outsiders.  Considering Jerrell Powe came in for something like less than 10 snaps last season, I highly doubt he is anywhere close to being a significant consideration for the 2012 rotation.

Neither Glenn Dorsey nor Tyson Jackson have yet to wow anyone since being drafted. Moreover, twilight-of-their-career stop gaps such as Kelly Gregg have yet provide anything in the way of meaningful relief for our DL woes.  Assuming Dorsey and Jackson stick around for awhile (which is a big assumption considering the cost of their respective contracts), we still need to provide them with what most consider the centerpiece of a 34 defense before we can truly assess either . . . to wit, a quality nose tackle. Whether Dorsey and Jackson remain on as long term fixtures of the Chiefs defensive line is not as important as whether and how soon we really plug the gaping hole in the middle.  I feel that once that deficiency is properly addressed, we will see our defense undergo the transformation from that of “on-the-rise” to that of “arrived.”

For this reason, I am holding out hope that the Chiefs, either through free agency or through the draft this year, at long last secure the caliber of nose tackle that will put our defense into a position where they can considered to be among the league’s elite.  We now have all the pieces, save one.

All this leads up to the question of “what are our current options” for getting that kind of nose tackle? Let’s begin with free agency. Just because we missed out on Paul Soliai does not necessarily mean that viable options no longer exist on that front.

For me, four names stand out – Aubrayo Franklin, Shaun Rogers, Antonio Garay, and Samie Lee Hill.  Rogers will be 33 at the start of next season while Garay and Franklin will each be 32. Of these three, I like Franklin the best, but all, given their ages, should probably best be viewed as guys whose best years are behind them and thus stop gap solutions for the Chiefs. That leaves Samie Lee Hill, who at age 25, has some viable tread left on his tires.

Hill, at 25, is a 3 year veteran  and for me the most intriguing of the bunch.  He is a restricted free agent and considering the Lions seem to be pretty loaded with talented DTs, Detroit is probably looking to unload him for a draft pick. Even better, Hill comes as a guy that entered the NFL  just 3 years ago (and with that keep in mind that well worn cliché about learning curves for DTs) as a small school standout and has managed to develop into a pretty solid player who many feel still has additional upside. The biggest obstacle to Hill taking the next step is the fact that he currently plays second fiddle to Ndamukong Suh.

Okay Double D, that’s all well and fine but would a guy like this cost us? Well, how does a 4^th round pick sound because that’s Detroit’s asking price? In case anyone’s worried about us losing a 4^th round pick, here are a couple 4^th round picks that ought to refresh your memory as to just how valuable they are to the Chiefs-  Donald Washington and Jalil Brown. In the 2010 draft, the Chiefs did not even have a 4^th round pick, having traded it to Houston.

Although I’d probably be down with getting Aubrayo Franklin as a short term solution, my gut instinct is to do whatever it takes to make Sammie Lee Hill a Chief. And frankly “whatever it takes” is not gonna be all that much.

Next, let’s consider the draft for a minute. Each and every time the Chiefs have had an opportunity to get what appears to be a good Nose Tackle in the draft, I’ve been all over it. I strongly advocated taking BJ Raji with our #3 pick in 2009. I doubt I need to remind anyone here who we actually ended up with.  In the face of my advocacy of Raji, the objections on AA came fast and furious. Raji’s profile and draft stock was nitpicked to death on this blog and the popular sentiment seemed to be no way in hell he was worth the #3 pick and most likely a late 1^st rounder at best, if that.

Raji, of course, made an immediate impact his rookie year and is widely regarded as one of the top 3 Nose Tackles in the league.

Next came Terrence (“Mount”) Cody. In Cody’s case, I did not advocate taking him in the first round but certainly felt at the time that he was worth our 2^nd round “Tony Gonzalez” round pick that year.  That thought was also highly criticized and nit-picked on this very blog. Instead, we used our 2^nd round picks on Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas. Anyone who wouldn’t trade either of those picks for Terrence Cody right now ought to have their head examined.

Last year, for me, Phil Taylor was the guy we had to have.  That idea was once again nit-picked and lambasted by all the self-appointed draft experts on this blog. Instead, we traded away our #21 pick to Cleveland who in turn used it to take Taylor. The Chiefs ended up with leaving the 1^st round of 2011 with a Wide Receiver who so far seems incapable of escaping the jam at the line. Taylor’s rookie campaign saw him step in as a starting DT for the Browns . . . of course!

Now comes this year’s draft and once again we may have the opportunity to take an outstanding specimen of a Nose Tackle with our #11 pick. Mind you, this is a guy that just about every major and minor sports media outlet has on their big board lying somewhere between 10^th and 20^th best player of the draft overall. Check out just about any mock draft, and the consensus seems to be that he’ll either go the Panthers at #9, the Chiefs at #11, or the Eagles at #15.  I am of course referring to Combine standout Dontari Poe.

And invariably the nit-picking of this early round NT option has begun here at AA.  We’ve all heard them – workout warrior (as if that’s an automatic basis for disqualification), takes plays off (name one NFL DT/NT who doesn’t – there is a no more physically demanding job in the NFL), lack of awards and stats (did Memphis’ scheme put him in a position to rack up gawdy stats and accolades? Not really), blah, blah, blah. I’ll tell you this much – every opposing coach that faced Memphis has stated in no uncertain terms that they definitely had to scheme for Poe. Has it ever occurred to any of Poe’s detractors that maybe, just maybe, there wasn’t any real talent around Poe and as a result, he ended up getting all the attention? Just a thought.

Look, I’m gonna keep this as simple as possible. Poe is high on everyone’s draft boards because his size, his strength, his feet, all dictate that he looks to make a major impact in the NFL. Nevertheless, some suggest that the only reason he’s a first rounder is because of his combine performance. Not true. Going into the combine, Poe was just about everyone’s consensus favorite as the best NT of this year’s draft and generally regarded as 1^st rounder anyway. His combine performance merely confirmed what most everyone already suspected – he is indeed a beast.

Now do I think Poe is flawless? Hell no! Just like ANY 1st round pick, Poe has the potential to be a bust. I believe what Poe needs more than anything to really excel in the NFL is better technique. Technique is something that can be taught. Last I checked, Romeo Crennel still coaches for the Chiefs.

Are there other options in the draft? Yes, but none which I believe have the potential to make as huge or as immediate of an impact as Dontari Poe. For example, some say we should roll the dice with Alameda Ta’amu in the 2nd round. Based on, among other things, how Ta’amu was thoroughly manhandled by Phillip Blake (currently projected as a 3^rd or 4th round Center), I just don’ t see it. Every time he faced top level offenses, like, say Stanford’s, Ta’amu disappeared. Truth be know, Ta’amu will face a lot of top level offenses in the NFL.

There’s a couple other guys, late rounders, in the draft who pique my interest some but those are guys who have to be considered development projects. The Chiefs simply don’t have the luxury to develop a nose tackle and besides that’s kind why we took Jerrell Powe in the 6^th round anyway. In other words, we already kind of have that spot filled.

Let’s recap.

With Branden Albert, veteran guard Ryan Lilja, the addition of Eric Winston and the ongoing development of Hudson and Asamoah, the Chiefs offensive line is actually in pretty good shape right now. While a guy like DeCastro would probably make our OL that much better, our needs on the OL are nowhere near as pressing as those on the DL and it’s chronic inability to stuff the run and/or collapse the pocket.

If we go the free agency route, Sammie Lee Hill is the one guy I would have wearing Red and Yellow next season. His cost would be insignificant. With Hill set to wear a Chiefs uni, I would have zero qualms about taking David DeCastro with our #11 pick. I also wouldn’t have to worry about Carolina taking Poe ahead of us in the draft.

If Pioli fails to address our glaring hole at NT in some meaningful way through free agency, I think the ONLY option we have is to take Dontari Poe, assuming Carolina has not already done so. Poe, by all accounts, possesses all the physical requirements and all the upside one could ask for – he just needs the right coach and the right situation. Dontari Poe would find both in KC and our defense would prosper greatly from his presence.

That’s my Double Take Addicts.

How would you like to see the Chiefs address the need at Nose Tackle this offseason?

To give everyone a slight break from the frenzied first 48 hours of free agency (with which I too am trying to keep up), I’m venturing into the hallowed, funny haired ranks of NFL draft prognosticators.  Let’s begin with a little conversation about which positions teams around the league seem to be looking for and suggest that that is likely to play a major factor in dictating what the first round of the draft will look like. In just a couple of instances, I’ve deviated from the “pure need” approach and selected a player for value or long term strategic reasons.

Over the last few years, most teams have shied away from taking wide receivers in the first round for a variety of reasons: cost, bust factor, position depth… you get the picture. I believe this is the draft where the pendulum starts swinging the other way.

Cliche or not, through its rule-making, the NFL is emphasizing the passing game more and more. This is brought to fore in the 2012 draft by noting that somewhere in the neighborhood 17 receivers are considered high on the list of offseason needs throughout the NFL. Right up there with WRs, the next most in demand positions are, not surprisingly, cornerback and safety, with about 15 needed for each. Think of it as a co-dependent, abusive relationship.

Let me clue you into something: there are not even 10 WRs in this year’s draft class that warrant first round consideration.  I’m gonna tell you one thing more — first round quality or not, there will be a lot of teams grabbing up WRs in the first round for fear that they miss out on filling that need in the 2nd or later rounds.

Here’s how I have primary team needs breaking down by position:

17 Wide Receivers

15 Cornerbacks

15 Safeties

14 Guards

11 Right Tackles

10 Pass Rushers

10 4-3 Linebackers (SAM, MIKE, WILL)/ 3-4 ILBs

6 Left Tackles

6 Quarterbacks

6 Centers

4 Nose Tackles

3 Running Backs

2 3-4 Defensive Ends

1 4-3 Defensive Tackle

I’m making no assumptions about draft trades at this point but I am going to assume that the Free Agent market will take some pressure off of teams looking to draft a franchise QB in the first round. I figure about 3 or 4 QBs with starter potential will be in the mix and likely acquired prior to the draft through FA. The short list of names of who I either know or feel will be in play for starting roles on new teams – Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, plus perhaps Josh Johnson and Dennis Dixon. The way I see it, that sort of narrows down the list of teams desperately seeking a franchise QB through the draft, now doesn’t it?

Anyway, those are my initial thoughts on this year’s draft. After the dust of free agency has had settled a bit, I plan to revisit these picks and perhaps tweak them for a post free agency mock.

Enjoy, debate, and by all means participate if you agree or disagree with any of these selections.

1. Indianapolis Colts 

Primary Needs -  QB, CBx2, SS, WR

Selection – Andrew Luck, QB – Stanford

2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis)

Primary Needs -  QB, WR, ILB, NT

Selection – Robert Griffin III, QB – Baylor

3. Minnesota Vikings

Primary Needs - LT, CB, WR, OG

Selection -  Matt Kalil, OT – USC

4. Cleveland Browns

Primary Needs - WR, RT, QB?, CB

Selection -  Trent Richardson, RB – Bama

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Primary Needs – CB, 43LB x 2, RT, WR

Selection  – Morris Claiborne, CB – LSU

6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington)

Primary Needs - OT x 2, OG, WR, 43OLBx2

Selection – Riley Reiff, OT – Iowa

7. Jacksonville Jaguars

Primary Needs - QB, WR, CB, 43DE

Selection – Melvin Ingram, 43DE – South Carolina

8. Miami Dolphins

Primary Needs – NT, WR, RT, 34OLB, QB?

Selection - Justin Blackmon, WR – Oklahoma State

9. Carolina Panthers

Primary Needs – 43DT, CB, SAM, RT

Selection – Michael Brockers, 43DT – LSU

10. Buffalo Bills

Primary Needs – 43DE, WR, LT, CB

Selection – Quinton Coples, 43DE – North Carolina

11. Kansas City Chiefs

Primary Needs – RT, NT, QB, G/C

Selection – Dontari Poe, NT – Memphis

12. Seattle Seahawks

Primary Needs – QB, 43DE, G, 43DT

Selection  -  David DeCastro, OG - Stanford

13. Arizona Cardinals

Primary Needs - OT x 2, WR, 34ILB, 34OLB, RG

Selection -  Jonathon Martin, OT - Stanford

14. Dallas Cowboys

Primary Needs - CB, C, G, S

Selection – Cordy Glenn, RT/G - Georgia

15. Philadelphia Eagles

Primary Needs – SAM, MIKE, WR, CB, SS

Selection – Luke Kuechly, ILB – Boston College

16. New York Jets

Primary Needs – WR x 2, RT, 43OLB, S x 2

Selection  – Michael Floyd, WR – Notre Dame

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)

Primary Needs – CB, RB, S x 2, G

Selection – Janoris Jenkins, CB – North Alabama

18. San Diego Chargers

Primary Needs – LT/RT, G, 34OLB, CB

Selection – Mike Adams, RT – Ohio State

19. Chicago Bears

Primary Needs – WR, LT, CB, G/C

Selection – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB – Bama

20. Tennessee Titans

Primary Needs – C, OG x 2, 43DE, S?

Selection – Peter Konz, C – Wisconsin

21. Cincinnati Bengals

Primary Needs – CB, RB, S x 2, G

Selection – Mark Barron, S – Bama

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta)

Primary Needs - WR, RT, QB?, CB

Selection -  Stephen Hill, WR – Georgia Tech

23. Detroit Lions

Primary Needs – LT, CB, SS, 43DE

Selection  – Stephon Gilmore, CB – South Carolina

24. Pittsburgh Steelers

Primary Needs – LT, LG, NT, CB x 2

Selection – Ryan Tannehill, QB – Texas A & M

25. Denver Broncos

Primary Needs – LG, RT, CB, C, QB?

Selection  – Kelechi Osemele, OG/OT – Iowa State

26. Houston Texans

Primary Needs – WR x 2, OG x 2, C, NT

Selection  – Kendall Wright, WR - Baylor

27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans)

Primary Needs – 34OLB, WR x 2, 34DE, S

Selection – Whitney Mercilus, 34OLB – Illinois

28. Green Bay Packers

Primary Needs – 34OLB, S, 34DE, RB

Selection – Fletcher Cox, 34DE – Mississippi State

29. Baltimore Ravens

Primary Needs – LT, C, WR, 34OLB

Selection  – Mohammed Sanu, WR – Rutgers

30. San Francisco 49ers

Primary Needs – WR, RG, RT, FS, QB?

Selection – Kevin Zeitler, OG – Wisconsin

31. New England Patriots

Primary Needs – 34OLB, WR x 2, 34DE, S

Selection – Reuben Randle, WR – LSU

32. New York Giants

Primary Needs – LG, TE, FS, 43ILB

Selection – Coby Fleener, TE  – Stanford

Tradeoffs (sigh).

I haven’t seen the 2011 charting stat numbers yet, but I can tell you that in 2010, Stanford Routt, when paired up with Nmandi Asomugha, was a top shelf pass defender. Football Outsiders, for example, ranked him with the 3rd highest success rate, with 66% of passes defended. Carr ranked 10th in that department with 61% of passes defended. In fact, both scored better than Brandon Flowers, for what it’s worth. Also worth noting is that Routt only gave up 5.7 yards per pass to Carr’s 7.1 yd/pass. Given all that, I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to expect Routt’s production to parallel his 2010 situation playing alongside Flowers.

There are also rumors circulating in the media that Routt was somebody for whom Romeo Crennel actively lobbied. If true, I think that’s also pretty significant in terms of scheme fit. For a really well-written, compelling look into the player we’re getting in Stanford Routt, I recommend Doug Farrar’s (Yahoo! Sports) recent piece on him. Long story short, I personally feel this is a really good signing no matter how you slice it.

Now that Routt is inked, it seems that the popular assumption, or expectation if you will, is that all this means is that Pioli got himself a guy with skills very comparable to those of Carr for what we think could be 2 or 3 million less per year. Cynically put, Pioli avoided some unnecessary negotation stress by landing a comparable replacement for Carr who, oh by the way, just so happens to be cheaper to pay. Given that, one is then further tempted to think that the safe, conservative move now is to simply franchise Bowe and let Carr walk. CB dilemma solved, franchise tag dilemma solved, all good.

Well guess what? I’m going to go against the grain and offer an even better strategy. Scotty, I hope you’re reading this (I also hope that after reading this, you’ll finally start responding to those thousands of suggestion letters I’ve sent you dammit!).

Bowe, while inconsistent at times, has shown the potential to be a gamechanger. That’s worth something in the NFL. I think he can also be considered a foundational player for the Chiefs. Also worth something. Still, I believe that Bowe, rather than being tagged, ought to be locked up into a long-term deal before free agency hits. Unless you’re planning to shop him– in and of itself a risky strategy on many fronts– I see no reason not to just sign him to a comfortable, reasonable, market value contract.

So why no tag for Bowe you ask? Well, first off because if you really want him, and you’ve come up with a good backup plan for Carr, then there’s really no reason whatsoever for not focusing all of your attention and energy on getting a deal done to make Bowe’s long-term presence as a Chief into reality. Not just that, but doesn’t it also help to further underscore that whole PR pledgy thingy to develop and retain core players?

As promising and exciting and foundational as Bowe might seem, it is also important to recognize that he simply has not proven himself to be among of the 5 best receivers in the league which, in a certain sense, is what the franchise tag kind of suggests. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the 12th best WR going into 2012 and 19th best among their Dynasty Rankings. Similarly, Football Outsiders ranked Bowe 51st in DVOA and 31st in DYAR for 2011. Not exactly what you’d call eye-popping production.

We all know that Bowe every once in awhile makes for some fun highlight reel footage, but does he honestly merit franchise tag money? Especially when you’re most likely not going to find many teams willing to exchange a high value pick for him? I think you see my point. Bottom line, paying Bowe like he’s a top 5 WR really doesn’t sound all that Clark-like to me. Lest we forget, Bowe was a 1st round draft pick– just how likely is it that we can get that for him now? ROI people, ROI.

Moving on, if Pioli can sign Bowe to a long-term deal before free agency hits, he’ll still have a franchise tag at his disposal, right? Well, please tell me then what would be the folly in using that tag on Carr? In fact, franchising Carr seems to me like the best of all possible moves at this point and I’m going to offer some reasons as to why that is so.

It’s a proverbial seller’s market for top tier CBs and this year is no different. Justifiable or not, Carr is almost certain to command an elite CB level of monetary respect out on the open market. What’s more, it seems there could be some healthy competition for a CB of Carr’s caliber. I can think of at least a couple of teams out there that are desperately needing major secondary talent who, oh by the way, also happen to have some pretty interesting draft pick horsepower to make a lucrative deal happen for the Chiefs. For example, both the Patriots and the Bengals are in need of quality CB help and both are holding on to spare 1st round picks. Just imagine all of the tantalizing draft possibilities that would suddenly open up for the Chiefs if that were to happen?

Move up and get a franchise QB? Check.
Pick up a couple of first round offensive linemen? Check.
Control the draft by moving down? Check.

So you say, “well Double D, suppose nobody is willing to pony up a high draft pick for Carr? Aren’t you then stuck with an overpaid secondary that you’re underutilizing most of the time because, well, as everybody knows, you really only need 2 good corners? Very, very risky. Very expensive (i.e., unClark-like). Not good. Or as my AA colleague Big Matt might say ‘Mattie no likey.’”

Not good? How about not so fast?

Merlin and I were texting back and forth on this whole deal the other day and he brought to my attention a pretty interesting fact of which I was previously unaware. To wit, an NFL nickel plays about 50% of all snaps currently. That is a lot. On top of that, the more success you have at containing teams on 1st down, the more likely it is that you’ll see the nickel utilized on successive downs. In fact, I think with the right personnel, a pretty compelling argument can be made for having the nickel formation as your base D.

When I think of Flowers, Carr, and Routt being on the field all at the same time, I start thinking “two’s company, but hey, three’s a party!” Arenas might excel at wrapping up receivers pretty quickly after the catch but he’s not exactly setting the world on fire when it comes to preventing that catch from happening in the first place. Just sayin.

As many on the message boards here have already suggested, the Routt signing may indeed turn out to be a very forward thinking approach on the part of Crennel and Pioli. In fact, passing against a defensive backfield comprised primarily of Flowers, Carr and Routt would be close to impossible. In this increasingly pass-friendly league, I have to think that that level of secondary presence would basically relegate opposing offenses to beating you with their running game, and maybe tossing in a few dink and dunks for good measure (which painfully brings to mind a certain low-scoring, rather flaccid offense with which I happen to be pretty familiar).

The only practical alternative to going with the run would be to simultaneously risk a lot of coverage sacks. Unless your QB can progress through his reads quickly and also get rid of the ball in a hurry, you’re gonna be in a heap of trouble. If a team goes run, we’ll have DJ, Berry, and perhaps Belcher up in there to contain it. If a team opts to pass, their dealing with a DB set of Flowers, Routt, Carr, and Berry with maybe DJ in coverage while Hali & Houston, along with either an ILB, S, or CB, are all breathing fire in your backfield.

Next– just stay with me here– we grab a very gettable guy in the form of one Paul Soliai as our NT. Tell me, how can that cannot be considered a run stuffing, block eating, shutdown, ballhawking, nightmare defense?

So, armed on defense, we head into the draft to start filling holes on offense.

Final (crazy?) thought. While neither has any experience at the position (at least none of which I’m aware), both Carr and Routt possess prototypical size and speed to play Safety, Routt perhaps moreso because of his physicality. Might this signing, combined with the retention Carr, offer more options and much needed depth at that position as well? I know, stupid idea, probably makes more sense to just plug Sabby Piscatelli whenever the need arises, right? I’m sure we’ll be just fine should Eric Berry happen to miss any games.

That’s my Double Take.

Sound off Addicts!

As I’m sure most readers have by now concluded, the 2011 Chiefs offense struggled some. One interesting stat to look at in this area are 2011 Drive Stats as computed by Football Outsiders. Considering Brian Daboll has been named as the Chiefs new OC, I thought it might also be interesting to take a quick peek at how the Miami Dolphins offense fared last season under Daboll’s watch.

I feel it helps to compare apples to apples and start by setting forth the fact that the core identity of both the Chiefs and Dolphins is that of running teams wherein the Chiefs ranked 2nd in total carries and the Dolphins ranked 5th. So with that clearly established, let’s begin with what each team possessed up front.

As you may or may not know, the Dolphins’ starting OL, unlike the Chiefs, consists entirely of guys who were selected in the first round of their respective drafts. In light of that, one might reasonably expect them to be pretty good at controlling the LOS. Well, yes and no. In a couple of ways, the 2011 versions of each team’s OL units were somewhat similar in that each team possessed superior left tackles in Jake Long for the Phins and Branden Albert for the Chiefs (the Chiefs only 1st round OL btw) but both teams were also pretty soft in the right tackle spots through the likes of Barry Richardson and Marc Colombo. That’s pretty much where the similarities end.

The Dolphins were far and away better between the guards than were the Chiefs. For example (and regardless of what people might feel towards him as a “dirty” player), Incognito seems to have played pretty damn solidly for the Phins in the left guard slot. Similarly, C Pouncey also appears to be doing everything that was expected of him. In terms of interior line play, Vernon Carey’s production in the run game can’t really be faulted either. By contrast, the running game production of the Chiefs interior OL left much to be desired. Need I point out yet once more that going with two undersized interior linemen, UFA LG Ryan Lilja & 38 year old UFA C Casey Weigmann, alongside the 2nd year, 3rd rounder RG Jon Asamoah perhaps comes with its limitations?

The next two tables I think illustrate pretty cleanly what I’m basing all this on.

I see two things basically. The Dolphins were a better running team than the Chiefs in most categories and the Dolphins clearly excelled at running the ball between the guards. So, when it came to playcalling for the rushing game, just how smart was Brian Daboll at playing to his strengths and avoiding his weaknesses? Check out the next table.

What stands out the most to me here is that the Dolphins ran the ball between the guards 63% percent of the time as compared to a league average 50%. I think that’s pretty smart. Number one, because he understood they were good at doing that and number two, the shortest distance between point A and point B is always a straight line (spare me the nerd speak on how Relativistic Physics sometimes suggests otherwise).

What about avoiding weaknesses? Again, we see that for runs to the right side, Daboll controlled the damage by dialing way back on those. The only questionable strategy one can find here is the scaling back on runs to the left side where the Phins experienced an above average success rate. Then again, there’s the shortest distance argument coupled with the fact that all those extra carries between the guards have to come from somewhere. Compared to how Haley managed his gap preferences, Daboll seems like a genius. Point being, know thyself.

So I hear you saying out loud, well weren’t the Dolphins were more successful at running the ball simply because they were blessed with the talents of Reggie Bush while the Chiefs had to somehow make do with Jackie Battle? Sorry boys, but that dog just won’t hunt. Battle ranked 17th in DVOA and 24th in DYAR compared to Bush’s respective 30 and 29 rankings. BOOYAH!

At QB, 5th year veteran backup Matt Moore (originally signed as a UFA by the Cowboys) finished out as 26th in DVOA and 23rd in DYAR while Cassel’s rankings were 39 and 40 respectively. Moore’s completion percentage on the season was 60.5% and his passer rating was 87.1. However, for running teams like the Chiefs and Dolphins, I just don’t see Daboll as having all that signficant of an advantage with Moore. I think one can also make a fair argument that Daboll played a significant role in the success and development that Moore experienced this past season. By the same token, what positive thing can be said about Haley’s role in the development of Matt Cassel during the 2011 season?

I’m going to finish this out by finally getting to the statistical subject I hinted at in my introduction, namely Drive Stats. Note that SOS stands for for Strength of Schedule, DSR is Drive Success Ratio meaning “percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown,” non-adjusted for opponent, while discarding “take-a-knee drives at the end of a half”, and LOS/Dr is “the average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive.” So let’s take a look, shall we?

The first thing I always look at it on this is the LOS/Dr because I feel that’s a pretty fair gauge of how good of a job your special teams receiving unit is doing. It also provides some insight into how much field an offense typically has to work with; in this proverbial “game of inches,” that’s something that can matter. Here we see that the Chiefs ranked 31st in that category while the Dolphins, with the #7 rank, placed them among the elite teams in this categories. This says two things – major changes probably were indeed warranted for the Chiefs’ special teams unit and Daboll typically enjoyed a shorter field with which to work, an edge if you will.

The next thing I like to look at is SOS wherein we see that the Dolphins endured a tougher road than the Chiefs. Now the homer/skeptic might say “well wins and losses are all that really matter” noting rightly that the Dolphins went 6-10 while the Chiefs bested that with a 7-9 record. I suppose the best response to that is that a winless Dolphins team came into Arrowhead and routed a decent KC defense 31-3 with Reggie Bush averaging over 7 yards a carry. I suspect that game not only surprised Romeo Crennel some but very likely also caught his attention in terms of Daboll’s playcalling acumen.

So what’s the big take away?

Facing a tougher schedule, armed with generally inferior talent at skill positions (other than perhaps QB?), but also enjoying better interior OL play and special teams help, running a very similar style of offense, Brian Daboll outperformed Todd Haley’s Chiefs with more yards/dr, more TDs, more points, fewer punts, and a higher DSR. In light of all that, I have to feel that Daboll has a pretty good shot at success here, especially considering he will be operating within what is currently a much weaker division than what he went up against in the AFC East. That, along with a presumptive position upgrade from whomever hikes the ball for the Chiefs in 2012.

You have my Double Take.

I’d love to hear your take Addicts!

For this week’s look back on the 2011 season, I’m bringing in a couple of graphs that seem well suited to my particular brand of speculation and conjecture. As addicted readers will recall, the 2010 Chiefs offense took them atop the AFC West into the playoffs with a 10-6 record, owning the best running game in the league, and also sending Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe, Brian Waters, and Jamaal Charles to the Pro Bowl– not a single defensive player among the bunch.

The 2011 Chiefs offense… not so much.

Now I will be the first to admit that we probably would not have made it to the playoffs last year without the underutilized services of Jamaal Charles (and in spite of the much-overutilized services of one Thom “Thumb” Jones) but one cannot also overlook the fact that Matt Cassel also enjoyed, statistically speaking, the best season of his career with 27 TDs and only 5 INTs over the course of only 14 games. Those numbers were achieved through a limited-attempt, high percentage, highly efficient passing game that simply supplemented a very good run game.

Below I’ve charted, courtesy Football Outsiders stats, the 2010 Chiefs week-to-week DVOA rankings (upper graph) against those of the 2011 Chiefs (lower graph).

I’m probably as guilty as anyone of this, but is it really fair to conclude that Jamaal Charles was the sole reason for the success of the 2010 Chiefs offense and his absence the reason for the failure of the 2011 Chiefs offense? If so, does that adequately explain Matt Cassel’s 2010 DVOA final ranking (16th best QB in the league) to where he ended up in 2011 (39th)? While it’s tempting to think that Jamaal Charles’ presence lifted all boats, when one then goes back and looks at Cassel’s ranking from 2009 (37th), I think it should at least leave them scratching their head just a little bit, because that was also the year in which Charles first got our attention as a major offensive force to be dealt with. In other words, Cassel’s boat didn’t seem to rise all that much in 2009.

The only real difference I can see is that Cassel probably benefited a lot from the combination of Charlie Weis’ mentoring and tailored play calling.

I think it’s also probably very reasonable to believe that the marriage between Weis and the Chiefs organization started to go sour at some point. My best guess is that the most likely reason for his late season departure was most likely because Todd Haley couldn’t resist the temptation to go ahead and “fix” some things that Weis already had working. I mean, after all, who can forget Haley’s third quarter benching of Cassel in the Tennessee game and Weis’ reported displeasure with said “coaching moment?”

Okay, so I’ll go back to the first graph above and speculate some about when Haley might have taken a little too much control presumably and initiated Weis’ winter of discontent? Argue if you like. I welcome it.

Did you find it?

Based on the week-to-week performance of the Chiefs’ 2010 offense, I’m going to go ahead and suggest that Haley’s meddling in the playcalling probably began somewhere around Week 7 or 8 and very likely started to become intolerable (for Weis) by Week 13, in which our offense could only muster 10 points at home against the nearly defenseless Broncos. In Week 14, they were kept out of the end zone completely in that 31-0 road rout against the Chargers. Week 16 is when Haley made his bizarre move to bench Cassel in a 34-14 win over the Titans. Let’s not forget that Weis also announced his resignation in the week that followed the Cassel benching.  Is it too wild to think that Charlie must have said to himself at that point, “now I can really say I’ve seen it all?”

Then, of course, there was the now well-established incident of Weis “holding court” at his favorite Northland pizza parlor. But I digress.

I say things have never been the same for Cassel, nor the offense he leads, ever since Haley apparently started down the path of unplugging Weis from what was becoming a pretty efficient offense. One also has to wonder whether Brian Waters’s “mutual decision” to leave the Chiefs following the 2010 season had anything to do with the veteran lineman’s having been around the league long enough to know that he, like Weis, had also seen enough and that nothing good could ever come of Haley’s offensive (pun intended) tactics?

Enough of my wistful thoughts on Weis. Good luck to the Jayhawks, I say.

To close this out, let’s take a step back and try to get some sense of what seems to have transpired on the team development front over the last couple of years.

First off, I think it’s fair to say that our defense, even with the emergence and then subsequent loss of Eric Berry, has had its up and downs since the arrival of Romeo Crennel. In 2010, the Chiefs’ defense progressed and basically played very well through the first half of the season, but then kind of dropped off the screen in the latter half of the season. I believe the reason for this is that opposing teams knew that Brandon Flowers could cover and then came around to the fact that Brandon Carr was damn excellent in coverage as well. After that happened, the Chiefs’ inability to defend the run was fully exposed and thoroughly exploited.

In 2011, we lost Barry from the get-go, which further impaired our ability to limit the run. But week-by-week, the 2011 Chiefs defense steadily began to develop into a unit, that while not very good at collapsing the pocket or stuffing the run, could nevertheless keep teams from running all over them all day long, which, even with an impaired offense, would keep us in most games. I feel that even those 5 blow out losses were more the result of turnovers and miscues snowballing into catastrophes rather than run-first offenses having their way with the Chiefs’ defense.

Special Teams started off 2010 very impressively and went steadily downhill after that, only occasionally flashing signs of life in 2011. Steve Hoffman is no longer with the team and that’s probably for the best.

As mentioned earlier, our offense began its descent during Haley’s “3rd quarter” of the 2010 season and has really languished all through 2011. Matt Cassel only had one really outstanding appearance this year, that being against the 0-16 Colts. Yes, the Chiefs missed Jamaal Charles sorely in 2011. But I think it’s also not outside the realm of possibility to say that they also miss the talents of a guy like Charlie Weis a whole bunch too! Let’s all hope Crennel and Pioli can strike that kind of gold with their next OC hire.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take, Addicts?

Your favorite fake football statistician returns this week with a look at the Chiefs defense over the past three seasons. Make no mistake, the loss of Eric Berry was a major positional setback this past season but the real question is where the defensive unit as whole came together, grew more in terms of talent and depth and ultimately overcame the loss of the type of player who looks to fulfill a leadership role. Another great thought to consider, particularly in light of the Brandon Carr question, is whether our defensive secondary has significantly and steadily improved these past few years. Perhaps a minor element to also think about is whether Kelly Gregg’s signing represented an improvement, a step back, or status quo for the Chiefs front 7.

So let’s dive into some good old stat tables, courtesy of Football Outsiders, to see if we glean some answers about the State of the Chiefs, D-wise.

Generally speaking, the story is an encouraging one. According to Football Outsider’s methodology, the Chiefs have gone, over the course of two seasons, from being a rather poor defense, to a slightly above average defense. Most notably, our pass defense has gone from 31st in the league to 17th.

The big picture is that the Chiefs defense is not yet where most of us would like it to be but we definitely seem to be on the right track. Let’s hope the trend continues. With Berry’s return, along with some improvement from the front 7, I suspect it will.

To keep things simple, here’s some copy and paste directly from Football Outsiders that explains  what each of these columns represent (however, in this case, you must think in terms of how good a defense is at frustrating these offensive line efficiencies):

Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

• Losses: 120% value
• 0-4 Yards: 100% value
• 5-10 Yards: 50% value
• 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we (i.e., Football Outsider) normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry. Defensive line stats (more accurately, defensive front seven stats) represent the performance of offensive lines against each defense, adjusted for the quality of offensive opponents.

• 10+ Yards:Percentage of rushing yards against this team more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat. Teams are ranked from smallest number of 10+ Yards (#1) to largest number of 10+ Yards (#32).
• Power Success:Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks. Teams are ranked from lowest power success percentage allowed (#1) to highest power success percentage allowed (#32).
• Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Ranked from most stuffs (#1) to fewest stuffs (#32).

Basically, what I think you can take away from this is that the 2011 Chiefs front 7 still has its work cut out for it, particularly when it comes to stuffing the run and getting to the passer.  That said, they have made a lot of progress in terms of controlling the damage we’ve seen done in previous years when it comes to giving up big plays on the ground. In 2011, Chiefs opponents were not regularly taking it the house, week in and week out, like we’ve seen in so many previous years.

Here we see how much teams liked to run against the Chiefs and how successful they were when they did. This is pretty simple stuff actually. In 2011, opposing offenses liked to run a lot against the Chiefs relative to other NFL defenses and when they ran against the Chiefs, they saw the most success running either between the guards or between the right guard and the right tackle. The main thing this suggests to me, and also keeping in mind that the Chiefs are among the softest at stuffing the run, is that they desperately need to upgrade their nose tackle . . . and if not, then perhaps consider returning to a 4-3 defense as the base set.

Now, this table ties back to the two previous ones and tells us a little bit more about how successful opposing offenses were at exploiting the Chiefs’ soft spots.  Bottom line: opposing teams love to run straight at us. The reason? Because they can. What we want to see, is other teams sticking close to the league averages in terms of lane preferences. In other words (or as some might say “another words”), that would tend to suggest the Chiefs are more or less equally strong (or equally weak in the alternative) against the run all along their front 7.

Here we gain a little insight into the job the Chiefs defensive secondary, and linebackers in some cases,  are doing when called upon to cover.  This is, again, a positive tale for the most part. Carr and Flowers are doing an excellent job shutting down #1 WRs and also slot receivers, believe it not. The most glaring, obvious, and ongoing defeciency is the Chiefs inability to cover RBs on pass plays.  Scheme or talent? I tend to think the latter because if our front 7 did a better job at the pressuring the QB, there generally would not be enough time to identify and target that 4th or 5th read.

So there you have it. Resign Carr, get a real, honest-to-god nose tackle, and bring the rush.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take, Addicts?

This week I’ll try delving a bit into how much of an impact Todd Haley’s tenure as head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs had in terms of developing and/or improving (or not) our favorite team. Better yet, think of it as mid-contract progress report on Scott Pioli, courtesy of Football Outsiders stats.

But first, an editorial observation and comment. In varying degrees, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel have, of late, been soft selling the notion that Matt Cassel got us to the playoffs. I know this will probably sound a little crazy but for some reason, I’ve been operating under the belief that it was actually Jamaal Charles who got us there. Anyone care to dispute that?

Now if Clark Hunt is too cheap to pay Kyle Orton (who is an upgrade over Matt Cassel), to use if and until we acquire and develop our very own first-time-in-franchise-history franchise QB, fine so be it. Even so, is it too much to ask the Chiefs PR machine to please just stop insulting our intelligence with this whole “Matt Cassel can get us to the playoffs” nonsense? Matt Cassel is a guy who’s been lucky enough be around playoff teams. He most definitely is not the guy who takes his team to the playoffs. He’s just not. Sorry, but it is either ignorant or disingenuous to think or say otherwise.

Cue Kenny Rogers “Through the Years” aaaaand go . . .

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First off apologies for not getting my weekly contribution to Arrowhead Addict posted last week. I am making up for that by doubling up on the results and information from last week with those of this week. Today’s offering of Double Take marks the first of what I think will be a few post mortems about the 2011 season and hopefully provide our readers with the kind of information they need to understand what this team was in 2011 and maybe get a little bit of insight into where it might be headed.

The frustrating and often painful 2011 season ended for the Chiefs on Sunday. We no longer have the head coach with whom we started the season, we’ve watched an interim coach rebound with .667 record, and we’re now mulling over a few things – important things like who our head coach and starting quarterback should be. So, as always, we’re going to find out if our friends over at Football Outsiders can help us with that process, just after the jump.

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What a difference a week makes.

New coach, new quarterback, new team.

I’ve got to tell you that I will never, ever forget what I witnessed last Sunday nor the faces of the 20,000 Packers fan who were there all around me at Arrowhead when it suddenly dawned on them that this was one game that their team definitely would not win this season. Google the image “Stunned Disbelieving Disappointment” and you might see one of those faces. Google the image “Stunned Disbelieving Exhilaration” and you might see what my face looked like at that same moment.

Now if you were to guess, would you say the passing game or the running game was the biggest factor on offense that contributed to the Chiefs win? What about on defense? Pass rush or run defense? Who had the better game, Thos Jones or Jackie Battle? Who was most efficient when catching the ball, Steve Breaston, Dwayne Bowe, or someone else? Is it possible that the Chiefs just caught the Pack on an off day and got lucky?

Click on the Continue link below to find out if Football Outsiders DVOA Analysis offers any statistical evidence to help answer these types of questions.

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Slow week in the world of Kansas City Chiefs’ news. Thankfully at such times there’s always DVOA Stats to pour over and discuss.

Anticipate no further. We’ll see how our beloved 5-8 Chiefs are statistically fairing at this juncture of the season, courtesy Football Outsider’s weekly update, right after the jump.

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Thanks to what appeared to be some really solid defense, plus a little magic and luck, the Chiefs snuck out of Soldier Field with a surprising and close win over the Bears.

The Chiefs offense, under the iffy guidance of play-caller Todd Haley, QB Tyler Palko’s* arm, the running prowess of Thom Thumb, occasionally seasoned with a dash of McCluster and a splash of Battle, somehow did not give the game away.
*I can’t quite put a “finger” on when, but I thought I might have caught a fleeting glimpse of $2.3 million Kyle Orton in the game ever so briefly. Did anybody else see that – if you blinked you probably missed it.

That defense now. That right there was something special. Justin Houston what!? Those linebackers – something good’s beginning to form there, now isn’t it?

Curious to know how just how much, if at all, this game changed Football Outsiders’ analytic opinion of the Chiefs?

You’ll get your answers, son – beyond the break.

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So here we are. I sounded the alarm even before the Dolphins game that the Chiefs were in danger of only winning four games this season. Two weeks hence, that is looking like a much more realistic possibility than it did even then, agreed?

Anyway, why is that?

It is because the Chiefs are, generally speaking, a very soft, very weak team in the most important aspects of the game. To make matters worse, even after being humiliated by Miami, they did not rally, they did not refocus, they did not improve, they simply stagnated.

While I feel bad for Matt Cassel, it really does not matter that he got hurt. He was not playing well anyway.

Sigh.

Who or what is this team?

Breaking it down, courtesy Football Outsiders stats, after the jump.

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So how’d everyone in Addictville like that stinker last Sunday? Was it simply a case of the Chiefs looking ahead on the schedule and getting waylaid in what was an obvious trap gate? Or could it have been a telling signpost of more deep-rooted problems with this season’s edition of the Chiefs?

We’ll get into my thoughts on all that, along with some Football Outsiders stats in support, just beyond the jump.

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What an incredible, emotional, unforgettable game Monday night was. As happy and excited as everyone was, still is, and should be about that win, a loss would have been equally emotional, just in an extremely negative way. More devastating actually and we came very, very close to experiencing just that. Fate, as it has done for four games in a row now, smiled on the Chiefs once again. Be glad and rejoice.

I now must ask you to ask yourself some questions. By winning four consecutive games against otherwise flawed or unlucky teams, are you now feeling just a little bit like the Chiefs might be on the verge of “unstoppable force” class? Are you looking more forward to the games against New England and Pittsburgh because you’re totally convinced that the Chiefs will simply roll over the 0-7 Dolphins and the Tebowing Donkeys?

Not so fast.

Ground Control to Major Tom Tom, a dose of anti-homerish, unemotional, myth busting, courtesy Football Outsiders statistics, assuming you are up to hearing it, awaits beyond the jump.

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The Chiefs came away from Week 7 with an important and impressive road victory over their division rival, the Oakland Raiders. They also find themselves with a huge opportunity this Monday night to make another statement within the division when they face off in Arrowhead against the AFC West leading San Diego Chargers.

The stakes? Just a share of the division lead, that’s all. Who would’ve even thunk it after those two back-to-back debacles a mere five weeks ago?

For purposes of this article, the question of course is always “are the Chiefs now a better team than they were a week ago?”

I’ll try to come up with some kind of answer on that, courtesy Football Outsiders latest stats, beyond the break.

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Will the Raiders’ loss of Jason Campbell significantly alter the Chiefs’ odds of victory this week? How likely are we to stop Oakland’s ground game? Do the Raiders have any glaring weaknesses and if so, how can the Chiefs exploit them. We’ll turn to Football Outsiders stats for possible answers to those questions and more, right after the jump.
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So. The Chiefs handily put away another struggling team, this time on the road in a place we’ve never won before. Just on the surface, based on what we know so far, the Chiefs have proven they can beat weak teams but they have yet this season to prove they can beat teams that are playing strong.

Where does that leave us? Are we now a better team than we were after week 3 simply because our record is better? Or are we the same team as the one that stood at 0-3 and merely benefitting from a brief creampuff stretch in the schedule? Or, perish the thought, are we worse than we were two weeks ago, record schmecord?

Once again, we’ll peer into that beautiful mind that is statistical analysis, courtesy Football Outsiders and try to gain a little insight into whether the Chiefs are showing significant signs of improvement. Or not.

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After much anticipation and anxious clamoring, I return this week with my regular season mainstay. That’s right, Double D’s Double Take on just how well, or poorly, the Chiefs are performing in key areas, courtesy of Football Outsider’s DVOA analysis.

For those of you unfamiliar with the DVOA ranking methodology, I’ll simply provide, after the jump, the same rundown that I gave last year. If you are interested in a more detailed (and perhaps more useful) explanation, go here.

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Alas, it appears that The Fickle Finger of Fate has determined that I was possibly prophetic, nay even Nostradamus-like, with that forecast as we are now less than a week into the frenzied fervency of the Bench Cassel, Can Haley, Blame Pioli, Hunt’s A Tightwad, and Suck for Luck campaigns.

Now, to the surprise (chagrin?) of many I am sure, I present:

THE RECLAMATION OF TODD HALEY

I mean come on, after all the trouble I caused the poor guy last week, it’s the least I can do. Right?

Enough sizzle, substance to follow.

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Chan Gailey, the original offensive coordinator of the Pioli/Haley era, was served his pink slip by Todd Haley less than two weeks before the start of the 2009 season. Apparently Gailey never forgot that firing and who can blame him considering it occurred at a time when his prospects of finding another respectable coaching job anytime before the next season were probably slim to none? In a Radio 610 interview during the week leading up to his week 1 match-up, Gailey made it pretty clear that his firing from the Chiefs did not sit well him. Following the humiliating defeat his team served up in Arrowhead, his exact words after the game were “It feels good . . . You’re lying if you say it doesn’t. It does. It feels good.”

Gailey didn’t just beat Haley. He outcoached him in every aspect of the game. Gailey also had a few other things to say about his coaching philosophy that I find somewhat pertinent to the situation, if not in total contrast (I suspect even specifically targeted) to Haley’s own approach of breaking the season up into four segments and his monotone mantra-chant of “just trying to get a little bit better” each week.

Here’s what I’m talking about, in Gailey’s own words: “If you say, ‘Well I hope we’re a little bit better than last year,’ you ought to get out. That’s wrong. I expect to win every one of them. I expect to be undefeated. That’s the way I’ve always been, and that’s the way I’ll always be. I want to be 1-0 after this one and whoever we play second, I want to be 2-0.”

Did you catch that?

I’ll go a step further. I believe last Sunday’s game may very well determine more than simply who won the game, if not its subtle battle of wits. I’ll explain what I mean after the break.
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Okay, not really.

There’s actually a few good reasons why I am referencing Football Outsiders today though and why I think that what they have to say is worth hearing. The first is because last year, using several factors*, they projected the Chiefs to win the AFC West. Guess what? They were spot on. The second reason is that I like their methods and areas of evaluation and rely on them quite a bit throughout the season in forming my own opinions about where the Chiefs stand at any given point.

*Among other things, these factors include strength of schedule, weather, trends, quarterbacks, draft history, injuries, offensive/defensive paces, various splits, coaching experience, on and on and then they run it all through 10,000 simulations.

What Football Outsiders predicts for the Chiefs in 2011 and related items just beyond the jump.
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Whether we’re talking Blues, Bluegrass, Soul, Pop, Jazz, Tejana, Rock, Country, Rap, Hip Hop, Protest, Alternative, Americana, or Kenny G, you name it, our music is our highest artform. It is the ultimate expression of everything that embodies our greatness, our ideas, our feelings, and our experience. Deny it not.

I continue after the continue.
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The week prior, I brought a similar analysis with our latest addition to the Thriller B’s, WR Steve Breaston. As with Gregg, the stats suggest that Breaston promises to bring significant improvement to our WR corps.

For this week’s installment, I’ll assess what FB Le’Ron “McTrain” McClain adds to the Chiefs stable of offensive backs. All that, después del jumpo.
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Before I delve into the title subject matter, I want to first say a few words about our remaining rookie holdout. There are now only 4 unsigned rookies in the league, 3 of them of 1st rounders. Guess which one of those 4 was not a 1st round pick?

Justin, dude, are you freaking high? Probably shouldn’t answer that, huh? You were a 3rd round pick for reasons that nobody but yourself are to blame. Own up to it, live with it, move on; you are, without question, not making life any better for yourself by following the course you are on.

At this point, there is no acceptable explanation for Justin Houston’s hold out unless he’s not ready, physically, mentally, and/or emotionally, to play football in the NFL. If that is the problem, then I really have to start questioning whether this is a guy I still want on my team. If that’s not the problem, then he is just hurting himself as a result of some very flawed reasoning. Rookie salaries are now more slotted than ever and given where he was taken in the 3rd round, there can be no financial aspect to this deal that is worth quibbling over.

Honestly, I’m beginning to feel both sorry and embarrassed for Scott Pioli about this pick.

Kelly “Queequeg” Gregg after the bounce.

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I’m sure everyone is fairly familiar with the 2008 offensive juggernaut that swept the Cards into the Superbowl so I won’t rehash that. We know the story. A more relevant question for us Chiefs fans is what happened after that and how prominently did Breaston feature in or contribute to the post-Superbowls Cards, for better or for worse?

We’ll delve into some of that despues del jumpo.
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Suggested reading, further insights, intriguing stats, and maybe a popular assumption or two challenged beyond the jump.

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Breaking this down a little further, position-by-position, the following table shows how the Chiefs starting OL compared to their respective average OL counterparts. (I am using Richardson’s dimensions for RT even though NFL.com for some inexplicable reason listed O’Callaghan as our starting RT).

At all positions other than Center and Right Guard, the Chiefs are pretty much in line with league averages. Weigmann and Lilja however are a bit shorter and significantly lighter than their average NFL counterparts. In fact, Weigmann and Lilja were the two lightest lineman at their respective positions out of the entire NFL. Is that good, bad, or does it even matter? Well, it can be good and bad, and in certain key situations, it matters a lot. I’ll explain what I mean by that right after the jump.
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As a natural follow up to last week’s DVOA breakdown of the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line, this week we take a look at how our defensive line fared using the same analysis. The prevailing consensus seems to be that Glen Dorsey is making good progress, Tyson Jackson still has a lot of question marks, and we need to upgrade at Nose Tackle. Are these all fair assessments?

Well, we’ll find out if Football Outsider’s DVOA analytical assessment of our defensive line justifies those popular opinions, or, maybe, just maybe, throws us any surprises – right after the jump.
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For this week’s edition of Double Take, we get to see whether Football Outsider’s DVOA analytical assessment of our offensive line offers us anything tangible towards those ends, just beyond the jump.
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The Kansas City Chiefs concluded an otherwise encouraging regular season by failing to achieve a perfect record at home, bestowing upon the Raiders a perfect record within the division, and failing, by any and every reasonable measure, to use the last game of the season as a tune up or for positive momentum going into the playoffs.

I shall do my best to keep this short and sweet. Updated rankings and other goodies await you beyond the jump.
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After an uninspiring, if not downright worrisome, 1st quarter in last Sunday’s game against the Rams, the Kansas City Chiefs hunkered down and put together what looked like a pretty solid performance on both sides of the ball. Matt Cassel treated us to a “gutsy” performace just 11 days after losing his appendix. He showed sound footwork, worked the pocket near perfectly, and put great touch on several of his passes.

The real question is, did the Chiefs show significant improvement as a team or were they more the beneficiaries of getting to beat up on another soft NFC West team? We’ll find out whether the latest DVOA stats shed any light on that question just beyond the jump.
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