Super Bowl XVII is in the books and the 2013 offseason has officially begun.

For the Chiefs, of course, the draft talk has been going since mid-season and in case there is was any doubt, I am in the camp of fans clamoring for the Chiefs to take a quarterback with their first pick.

I’ve come to this decision not because I’m smitten with any particular prospect (although I think Geno Smith currently leads the class), but because I think all other options are uninspiring and won’t help this team take the next step. In short, I think Geno wins by process of elimination. To make that point, I’ll be going through all the other players frequently mocked to the Chiefs and that the team will be able to grab with the 1^st overall pick.

First up, DT Star Lotulelei.

Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

The Good:

Star Lotulelei is a big, big man who is extremely powerful and stunningly fast. He once caused a fumbled snap and recovered it against USC because he hit the center so quickly and powerfully that the guy was on his rear before he ever got the ball to the QB. That’s really hard to do in the split second that the ball goes from the ground to the quarterback’s hands.

Although he made his bones blowing up blocks in the middle and causing havoc for offensive lines, he also was able to chase down runners from behind on plays where he was left unblocked on counters in one direction of the other. Overall, the player he most reminds me of is B.J. Raji – both an unstoppable force and an immovable object. I’m really not sure what would happen if two Star Lotulelei’s collided, but it would probably tear a hole in time and space.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Bad:

We’ve drafted this guy before.

Several times in fact.

This isn’t necessarily his fault, but I don’t need to remind Chiefs fans that this team has an awful history of selecting defensive linemen with their first picks in the draft. Still, in case anyone has forgotten, this is how it has gone lately with run-stuffing DT’s that KC grabbed with their first selection that year:

2001, 75^th overall pick Eric Downing – Started just 13 games for the team in three years before being cut and picked up by the Chargers, who in turn cut him after one season. He accumulated just two sacks and 44 tackles in those four years.

2002, 6^th overall pick Ryan Sims – Started 36 games for the team in five seasons on the roster, racking up just five sacks and 64 tackles before being let go.

2004, 36^th overall pick Junior Siavii – Cut after two years without ever starting a game. Had 13 tackles and one sack for the Chiefs.

2006, 20^th overall pick Tamba Hali – Obviously has become a franchise pass rusher for the team and one of the most important pieces of our defense … but only after we moved him off the line to linebacker.

2008, 5^th overall pick Glenn Dorsey – Has never been worth his contract although he has turned into a respectable player in the 3-4, but he’s been injury prone and his best season was in that magical (possibly fluky) 2010 season, in which he had 51 tackles and two sacks. My guess is that he won’t be with the team next year.

2009, 3^rd overall pick Tyson Jackson – Last November, Pro Football Focus wrote of Jackson: “However you want to spin it, Jackson was a bad draft pick. Not because he’s a bad player, but because you don’t spend a third overall pick on a two down run stuffing end [more on that later]. That’s what the Chiefs did and they’re having to live with the consequences of his astronomical salary. His work in the run game has been decent this year (though nowhere near as good as 2011), but he’s yet to pick up any pressure. In fact, throughout his career he has 19 quarterback disruptions. Through 8 weeks of the NFL season, 43 defenders have more this season alone.”

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

2012, 11^th overall pick Dontari Poe – He may yet turn into something, but a pass rusher he is not. At the end of the year, PFF noted: “In his rookie season, Dontari Poe had the lowest Pass Rushing Productivity of all defensive/nose tackle, at 2.3. In his 391 pass rushes, he had zero sacks, three hits and nine hurries. The two lowest 3-4 defensive ends included Tyson Jackson at 2.2, and Ropati Pitoitua at 2.3.”

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, Kansas City defensive linemen have been useless against the pass, and that won’t change if we pick up Lotulelei.

Although he is Scouts Inc.’s top overall rated player and is the top rated defensive tackle (4^th overall) on Mel Kiper’s Big Board, he still grades out poorly as anything other than a run-stuffer. He had just average production for his position with 41 tackles and five sacks in 2012. As with Poe, scouts rightly point out that given the extreme difference in level of play between college and the NFL, prospects should stand out big time at the college level. They should look like the best player on the field – especially if they are considered a top-10 pick. I’m not sure that’s the case with Lotulelei.

Scouts Inc. graded him as “below average” on pass rush skills, saying: “Needs development and doesn’t have a ton of upside in this area. Flashes an effective bull rush to collapse the pocket when staying low. However, too often comes off the ball too high initially. Does not have a wide array of pass rushing moves right now. Also needs development with hands in combat to counter. Shows good instincts to get his hands up in throwing lanes when seeing quarterbacks start their throwing motion.”

The only thing they graded him as “exceptional” in was his durability and run defense, saying he’d be a good fit in a Romeo Crennel-style two-gap 3-4 – an accolade that sends a chill down my spine.

If he hasn’t been effective at rushing the passer in college, he won’t be in NFL. The fact that scouts don’t believe he has upside in that area should worry any coach. Honestly, given how much passing and defending the pass has become the marquis struggle in the league, I’m amazed at how highly Lotulelei is projected to be selected.

In the end, I agree with  what PFF said about Jackson. You just don’t pick run-stuffers this high in the draft. While a pass can be disrupted by a single player, run-defense is squad-level effort and one player is not going to make the same impact against the run as a pass-rushing specialist will at getting after the quarterback. Even if one D-lineman is especially fierce against runners, teams will just run around him. It’s always good when your defense can dictate what the other team is able to do, but making them run left instead of right isn’t as big of a contribution as them having to keep extra backs in for pass pro or ignore a side of the field because their receivers are stuck on Revis Island.

While it would be a painfully Chiefs-esque move, the team should definitely not spend their 1^st pick this year on Star Lotulelei. He might help us, but he won’t fundamentally change this team, which is in need of serious work.

I had forgotten that the Chiefs can play good football.

But, as much as playing well and getting a win for a change felt good, it matters very little how the team plays in the remaining four games. 2012 will go down as a miserable lost season.

Obviously, what was merely an ugly season on the field to this point turned much, much darker this weekend with Jovan Belcher’s shocking and depressing murder-suicide. Clearly, that tragedy outweighs anything that happened in the game itself.

Still, this game showed that when this team manages to not commit perilous mistakes, it is a force to be reckoned with. But, the major factors in this win were extremely unexpected. I did not think that today I would be preparing to heap praise on the likes of OC Brian Daboll, WR Jonathan Baldwin and QB Brady Quinn.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Quinn played what was easily the best game of his career going 19/23 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and a QB rating of 132.1. Seriously. Yes, that Brady Quinn. Going into this game, his 2012 stat line was: 402 yards on 81 attempts for 0 TDs, 4 INTs.

While Baldwin only touched the ball twice, they were two of the most important plays of the game. He set up the team’s first touchdown on an opening drive in nearly two years with a big 34-yard catch-and-run. Then, late in the third quarter he used his big frame to box out the corner on a quick slant for a touchdown that all but sealed the game for the Chiefs.

This was also far and away the best showing of HC Romeo Crennel and Daboll. Gone were the head-scratching play calls, the ludicrously conservative decision-making, the wasted timeouts, and general dysfunction. Finally, these two were aggressive and they rolled with what was working – Jamaal Charles and Quinn, who was apparently possessed by a devilishly efficient quarterback demon shortly before the game.

It also bears noting that while Carolina is just 3-9 this year, their defense is ranked eighth against the pass and has allowed the 12^th fewest touchdowns in the league. Amazingly, the Chiefs offense was able win the day despite the fact that QB Cam Newton had about as good of a game as possible, finishing with 310 total yards and three passing touchdowns.

While the Chiefs pass defense took a serious hit when CB Brandon Flowers went down with a hamstring injury, the front seven played reasonably well overall. OLB Justin Houston was great as usual. DE Tyson Jackson built on last week’s strong performance and is making a strong case for being kept on the roster, although surely he’d have to take another pay cut to do so.  NT Dontari Poe appears to be continuing to progress and some guy named Tysyn Hartman lead the team with six tackles.

This win begs the question, what will the Chiefs do if the team somehow wins out and ends the season 6-10? Let me be on the record as saying that nothing, absolutely nothing can excuse the way this team played for most of this season. Even if Quinn continues to impress, GM Scott Pioli can’t claim that starting the guy was his plan all along. And, the team absolutely needs to draft a QB in the first round this year no matter what.

Pioli and Crennel should be forever commended for holding this team together through this tragic week and especially for confronting Belcher in the parking lot in an attempt to keep him from harming anyone else or himself. Still, what was true on Friday is true today — Pioli has failed in key areas of his duties and this team does not currently have a professionally competitive coaching staff.

With remaining games against the Browns, Raiders, Colts and Broncos, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if this team manages to make a run. But what will that mean? Last year, Crennel got his job by winning two of the team’s last three games after a long disappointing stretch. But, this team is capable of far more than just-below-.500 seasons and doubling down on this current crew would send the message that a 6-10 season was a success.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

However, I’m also not in the camp of people hoping this team will be so putrid through the next month that it will earn the dubious honor of holding the 1^st overall pick in the Draft. It appears so far to be a weak QB draft, and guys like Geno Smith will be within reach for Kansas City pretty much no matter how the pick order shakes out. If it takes a RG3-type deal to get the guy that the Chiefs think they need, I’m all for it, but I don’t think it will be necessary.

This season has been a mess, and the team had shown poor mental toughness through 11 weeks of football. But leave it to the Chiefs to shock and surprise you in a game just when you thought you knew what you think about them.

The basic truth is that this Monday is just like every other Monday: we wake up, go to work, the Chiefs lost again, still no one has been fired.

Nothing else really matters right now, but as I was watching last night’s predictably loathsome outing, I was surprised by one thing – Pioli’s draft picks are starting to make a difference.

Up until this point, all the bright spots on this squad had all been drafted by the Herm Edwards regime or earlier – RB Jamaal Charles (3^rd, 2008), OLB Tamba Hali (1^st, 2006), ILB Derrick Johnson (1^st, 2005), CB Brandon Flowers (2nd, 2008), LT Brandon Albert (1^st, 2008), WR Dwayne Bowe (1^st, 2007). It was looking like four years of drafts manned by Scott Pioli and company had been a total waste and the team had overall moved backwards.

Furthermore, looking at injuries and the past performance of both of these teams, this matchup looked brutal. The left side of the Chiefs’ O-line was to be run by two rookies against one of the league’s best pass rushes. With CB Stanford Routt cut, the Chiefs would be defending Peyton Manning’s passes at the flanker and slot positions with CB Javier Arenas and CB Jallil Brown. Four and five receiver sets would put Travis Daniels and Abram Elam on the field. With Jonathan Baldwin out and Bowe nicked up, Terrance Copper and Jeremy Newsome were to see significant action as number-two receivers.

I was mentally preparing myself for watching the blowout of the season. Maybe the century.

To my surprise, due to a valiant defensive effort, Charles, and some uncharacteristic miscues on the part of the Broncos, this was a close, competitive game. Basically, the only reason this game wasn’t a massacre was because Pioli’s draft picks — hitherto invisible and ineffective — finally came to play.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Let’s start with the aforementioned rookie linemen – LT Donald Stephenson (3rd, 2012) and LG Jeff Allen (2^nd, 2012). Along with RG Jon Asamoah (3^rd, 2010), both blocked extremely well in the run game and held their own in pass protection. Allen had already shown flashes this year. This was Stephenson’s coming-out party. With the exception of a dumb clipping penalty that stalled a drive, the ex-Sooner had a good game and looks to be a valuable situational tackle and reserve and for Albert down the road.

The cornerbacks not named Brandon Flowers that I was terrified about actually played head’s up all day. This was easily Arenas’ (2^nd, 2010) most solid all-around game. He covered very well and put the offense in good field position several times in the return game (not that they did anything with it).  While he still has his struggles, Brown (4^th, 2011) also looked like a pro and stuck with his receivers all day.

S Eric Berry (1^st, 2010) had a decent comeback game. Despite allowing one of the two touchdowns, he seems to be finding his way back to playing like a quality starter with a tackle-for-loss and two passes defended.

WR Dexter McCluster (2^nd, 2010) caught every ball thrown his way and had a key 19-yard run on one of the Chiefs better drives. TE Tony Moeaki (3^rd, 2010) is also showing he’s finally healthy after his preseason knee-tear last year.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

As a unit, this was the D-line’s best game this year. While he hasn’t been racking up stats (as expected), NT Dontari Poe (1^st, 2012) is coming into his own and had his name called a lot yesterday with four tackles, a tackle-for-loss and a pass batted down. DE Tyson Jackson (1^st, 2009) is finally looking like a dynamic lineman in several consecutive games and was good following the ball and quarterback, getting to Manning twice for a QB hit and a tackle right on the line of scrimmage that otherwise would have been recorded as a sack.

But, of course, the star of the show (and clearly the best value pick of Pioli’s tenure) was OLB Justin Houston (3^rd, 2011). Amazingly, Houston is outplaying even Hali – the Beast himself. He was a constant terror for Manning and finished the day with four solo tackles, two sacks and four QB hits. He now has nine sacks, one forced fumble, an interception, and four passes defended in 2012.

However, as much as this game would seem to compliment Pioli’s drafting acumen, it was also an indictment of his free agency wheeling-and-dealing. Aside from the obvious failure of the Routt signing, RT Eric Winston has played well but not outstanding and has a tendency to pick up a couple of penalties per game.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Most glaring of course is the quarterback position. Trading the 34^th overall pick in 2009 netted the Chiefs: QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel. Vrabel played just a couple of years for the team and was questionably effective. I don’t need to explain to you how the Cassel experience has been, but suffice to day he was riding the pine this game. Starting in his stead was another free agent acquisition who appears to be a low-end backup. None of QB Brady Quinn’s deep balls were even remotely on target. And while he was efficient in picking up short passes, he was too timid to stretch the field and was dreadfully inaccurate all second half.

WR Steve Breston, who got a five-year deal with $9.5 million guaranteed last year was inactive again behind two practice squad bodies. He has three catches since Week 5. I see absolutely no reason to give the ball to RB Peyton Hillis anymore, who was signed for $3 million this year. He’s slow, accident-prone and just doesn’t give the Chiefs anything they can’t get from RB Shaun Draughn.

Still, the fact that several of the Chiefs’ recent draft picks in the defense and O-line are starting to come to life is unambiguously positive for the team long-term. Hopefully, if these guys can maintain consistency, the next coach/GM won’t feel the need to blow the team up and start over with new young players.

No matter how well these guys play down the stretch, however, I just can’t see a scenario in which it saves Pioli’s job. Even if we do somehow look back at his drafts as being effective a year or two from now, he will still be on the books for constant coaching disarray. We’ve had five offensive coordinators in four years. He fired and denied pay to one head coach after two and a half years, and replaced him with his absolutely hapless friends who turned the brand into a laughing stock. He totally ignored the development of the most important position on the field, and inspired at least one character for the film Horrible Bosses (guess which one).

So, on his way out the door, I’d like to thank Pioli for not drafting totally uselessly. We’ll keep some of these guys as you move on to destroy a different team. Much appreciated.

With their thumping 27-17 win (with the score 17-0 as the starters left the field), the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs have made their presence known, and while I always anticipated the Chiefs to be improved this year, it was clear that this game was all about surprise.

Suddenly, the national media have looked up from their Peyton Manning talking points and realized that there is another team in the AFC West – one far more likely to be playoff bound. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen said as much after the game via Twitter, “I’m starting to agree with #Chiefs fans – national media (ESPN included) has fallen asleep on KC. They may be team to beat in AFC West.”

It’s important to remember that the Chiefs and the Cardinals were considered to be evenly-matched teams before this game. In fact, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports had the Cards ranked 16^th in his July 25 power rankings, with the Chiefs at a lowly 22^nd, justified by a rote comment about Matt Cassel defining the team’s overall worth (the laziness of what passes for analysis by national football writers astounds me at times).

But, it wasn’t just surprising that the Chiefs were impressive, or even that they gave Arizona a shellacking – it’s how they dominated. WR Dwayne Bowe wasn’t on the field. Neither WR Steve Breaston, nor WR Jonathan Baldwin, who has been blowing up training camp, caught a single pass. RB Jamaal Charles had just three carries for 12 yards. OLB Tamba Hali had zero sacks, and NT Dontari Poe barely registered his presence. And the Chiefs dominated.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Cassel looked polished and comfortable, going 5/6 for 67 yards and a TD. RB Peyton Hillis, coming off a down year, looked fantastic running for 41 yards on four carries plus an 11-yard touchdown pass. WR/RB Dexter McCluster showed his skills as a matchup nightmare, reeling in three passes for 45 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense started with back-to-back 3-and-outs followed by an interception and tallied seven sacks on the night. In the limited amount of time that the Chiefs’ starters were out on the field, it was a massacre. In the late first quarter, I wrote in my notes “THIS IS CHILD’S PLAY!”

This game was also all about surprise because of the play-calling of OC Brian Daboll. I already love this man. Most notable was his fantastic call on 4^th and 3. The Chiefs lined up with heavy personnel in a goal-line formation. As the defense began stacking the box to charge in up the middle, Cassel motioned all the backs and TEs out wide making it a five-receiver set with an open backfield. This threw the defense into chaos as they tried to adjust to coverage in panic. While they were still yelling at each other, Cassel slid in behind C Rodney Hudson for a sneaky conversion. I cannot tell you how much I loved that play – great design, perfectly executed.

Ever since Daboll was hired, we at AA and across Chiefs Nation have been pondering what Daboll’s offence “based on matchups” really meant. I think we’re now beginning to figure that out. While I think this game confirmed my assertion that Hillis could end up the Chiefs’ biggest free agent acquisition, I’m already eating my words about WR Devon Wylie and RB Cyrus Gray replacing McCluster. Dex’s move to being a pure slot receiver already looks like it will pay off dividends in 2012. On two big plays, Daboll drew things up so that Baldwin – the #1 target – would force a one-on-one on McCluster, who has now definitely shown that he has improved his route-running and ability to get open.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Most fundamentally, as Paddy pointed out, it’s clear the Chiefs generally grasp his offense and are executing it well. During the second half, GM Scott Pioli was in the press box talking about how the Chiefs now run like a well-oiled machine, getting plays in on time and communicating efficiently. As much as his image as a disciplinarian and ultra stickler for detail put me off, it is clear that the overall culture he is trying to install works. Players were always walking with confidence out there, and coaches seemed to be able to communicate well without wasting time with petty bickering.

The other big surprise is how deep the Chiefs seem to be at nose tackle. While Poe showed he still has a lot to learn, former practice-squader Anthony Toribio showed why he has taken the starting spot. He consistently got off blocks and single-handedly stuffed a running back in the backfield playing against the Cardinals’ starters. Meanwhile, Jerrel Powe was also impressive, getting penetration several times and even notching a sack from the nose tackle position. Poe clearly pushed the pocket on a few downs, but often times seemed to be playing patty-cake with the O-linemen – still unsure of how to use his hands effectively. He seemed to either be focusing too much on his hands or not enough. But, at the very least, he did get double-teamed nearly every time, which was a large part of why KC racked up so many sacks on the game.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The only negative surprises in this game were in the play of the Chiefs’ backup QBs. Although they are in a tight competition, neither played well. Still, neither arguably played worse than Arizona’s two quarterbacks competing over the starting job. I look forward to seeing Tanney bank some passes off the uprights for a touchdown in Game 2 of the preseason.

Generally speaking, it was hard to come away with anything but positive vibes after this game. The Chiefs are back with a vengeance this year and they have shown that they can beat you in any number of different ways. Wherever you are weakest, that’s where we will strike, because we have the tools to get you anywhere, anytime.

With the Chiefs starting their first practices on Friday, the 2012 season has for all intents and purposes begun.

With any luck, by this time next week we will know more about how the 2012 Chiefs will look, play and prosper and you will no longer have to read articles rehashing past moves or talking about what might happen once the season kicks off. That’s right, ladies and gents. Very soon, there will be some real football to talk about.

But until then, let’s take one last look back at the 204 days that we have been without Chiefs football since we rained on Tebow’s playoff parade in Week 17. After all, back then the starting quarterback was Kyle Orton, everyone thought we were going to draft David DeCastro and Peyton Manning was still a Colt.

Best Arrest

Although Al Davis, sadly, has left us, his legacy lives on in a number of absurd debilitating moves that have kept the Oakland Raiders uncompetitive for a record stretch of time. One of Davis’ recent hits was drafting Alabama LB Ronaldo McClain 8^th overall in 2010 and signing him to a (pre-CBA) $40-million contract. On top of being an overall disappointment – even more so than his cousin LeRon McClain’s stint with the Chiefs – apparently, a fun night out for him can be described as “third-degree assault, menacing, reckless endangerment and discharging a firearm inside the city limits.” Due to all of that silliness, McClain was sentenced to 180 days in jail. Despite his mediocre play on the field, he is still the Raiders’ starting middle linebacker (for now) and it appears this sentence will keep him out of the whole 2012 season.

He's a lot cuter when he's not shooting a gun by your head. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

But don’t feel too bad for the guy; while in jail he’ll probably still be making around $5 million in guaranteed money.

Best Roster Move

While there could arguably be a debate over who the Chiefs’ best offseason acquisition was, clearly the best improvement in single position came with the signing of Tackle Eric Winston and the banishment of Barry Richardson to the St. Louis Rams (who apparently hate their quarterback). It is truly rare when a team is able to turn their weakest position into one of their strongest, but that is what KC pulled off this year. In addition to getting the guy that is quite possibly the best right tackle in football, adding Winston also instantly made the Chiefs O-line one of the strengths of the team. After years of god awful blocking, we now have one of the better units in the league with bookend tackles and a fairly deep bunch of young players in the interior.

Best League Scheduling Oversight

Due to rules governing prime time games, the Chiefs in effect get two bye weeks this season. In addition to their Week 7 bye, the Chiefs have an 11-day break between their Week 9 Thursday Night Football game against the Chargers and a Monday Night Football game against the Steelers.

Best Throw-Down Move in the Division

I’m not going to lie, while this sentiment is in no way based in any type of rationality, I love that Peyton Manning has joined the division after snubbing the Chiefs. Is this objectively good for the Chiefs’ chances of winning the division? No. Does it motivate me even more to crush the Donkeys? Yes.

My only complaint is that the Chiefs don’t get to face off against Manning’s merry band of mules until Week 12, and, in all likelihood, he will have broken his neck seven times by then. On the other hand, if his bionic neck holds up that long, it’s very likely that Week 12 is going to be a great game – one that will have major divisional and playoff implications. Although I have been watching Peyton carve up defenses for the last decade, I can’t help but mentally taunt Denver every day until that game comes. This year is our year. Bring it on. Throw-down time.

Best Offseason Prediction

I totally said that we should draft Dontari Poe and everyone complained about the suggestion and in the end we did draft him. So there.

Worst Offseason Storyline

Arrowhead Anxiety-gate. Although many of you have likely forgotten about this by now, the 2011 offseason started with a stunning expose by the Star’s Kent Babb about how Scott Pioli scared the bejesus out of most people who work for the Chiefs. Todd Haley believed he was wiretapped. He wasn’t alone. Employee turnover was extreme. Old people were swept out the door. Pioli picked up trash he found and creepily presented it at board meetings in evidence bags. Everyone, including business-side employees, was forbidden from getting a peek at anything going on at the practice field.

Not only was this bad press for the Chiefs, this was the kind of story that shook at the very base of all of our feelings about the Pioli regime. Sure, he’s been very effective, but he just might be an exiled dictator in an elaborate disguise. The fact that the publication of the story was followed by increasing rumors and comments by league figures that this is why many players choose to avoid Kansas City left a sour taste in my mouth. Was it Pioli and his reputation that made Peyton Manning decide to not even visit with the team, despite its playoff-ready roster? Was Todd Haley batnuts crazy because Pioli’s management style turned him into a paranoid schizophrenic? We’ll probably never know.

Worst Moment of Chiefs Fandom

Cassel getting booed at a celebrity softball game. Really, people? I’m not saying the guy’s a great player, but wait until he throws his 5^th check-down in a row or manages to toss a no-look interception on a screen pass while in field-goal range with the game on the line. Even then, I’d prefer you all to react the same way that I, as any gentlemen, acts in this situation. Let a single tear roll down your cheek, physically assault someone in the immediate vicinity and order another beer (note: I only cry because of the adrenaline).

Worst Overall Change

The uniform design. Look, it’s not that bad and it seems like the material is going to be a lot better, but I agreed with some commenter who said they look like red Browns jerseys. Now I can’t get imagine out my head and all I can think is “yuck” whenever I see them (I do dig the gloves though).

I should preface this post by saying that I do not reside within the cerebral cortex of Romeo Crennel and Brian Daboll. I do not know that they will do any or all of these things, but I do think that if they don’t at least try some of them, we will have missed some opportunities this coming season.

1.) DeQuan Menzie as MLB.

One of the many sets that Crennel likes to run in pass-defense sub packages is loading up on D-backs and replacing one ILB – Belcher, obviously – with a safety to cover any RBs coming out of the flat or TEs on crossing patterns. Throughout the 2011 season this was almost always McGraw – a veteran with good instincts who is a good tackler and will be read his man well. This is one of the many packages that was great at confusing and disrupting opposing offenses, and led to brilliant defensive victories like the one over the undefeated Packers.

However, it was also exploited at times with teams audibling to a dive play and running a power back straight up at McGraw. While he is normally a good open-field tackler, he got trucked on a couple of those because he just doesn’t have the body mass to make a thud against a big back bursting through the hole. Enter DeQuan Menzie.

John David Mercer-US PRESSWIRE

Menzie comes from the hard-nosed Alabama defense where he often played close to the line. While he’s not huge, he is on the heavy side for a safety, and showed on tape that he could power through wide receiver blocks and would likely do well as both a mean guy following RBs and TEs in the short passing game, and also standing tall against backs plowing through the hole. The case has been made that Eric Berry would be good in that role, but I think he is greatest as an asset to us on passing downs with his ability to take over center field and play the deep ball.

2.) Three-headed RB Monster: Jamaal Charles-Peyton Hillis-Dexter McCluster

With the Chiefs’ top three RBs, they have three very different and complementary ball-carriers. Charles has the speed and vision to break big ones anytime. Hillis is a pounder who can get away from you if he gets a bit of space, and McCluster has the spark to hit the hole fast and can make things happen in the open field. Having all three of these guys on the field simply presents too many plays to contemplate.

US PRESSWIRE

If Daboll fields Charles, Hillis, McCluster, Moeaki and Boss, what package will the defense put out there? The fact is that there is no right answer because with those guys, you could do some power running with Hillis as a lead blocker for Charles/McCluster or you could do also sorts of sophisticated pitches, reverses and screens. Or, you could motion a TE out wide and throw from it. It’s hard to imagine a better goal-line set; the Chiefs will inevitably find favorable matchups. Daboll has made a name for himself being a mad scientist in drawing up plays. I have a feeling he is going to have fun with these guys.

3.) Splitting Hillis out wide

As I mentioned in my feature on Hillis a few weeks back, I noted he is really much more than the plodding pounder he is reputed to be. In fact, he is a great pass-catcher:

His one drop among 61 catches in 2010 made him the third most consistent receiving RB in the league. Most importantly for QB Matt “Panic Toss” Cassel, Hillis hauled in 90 percent of all passes thrown at him in 2010 – on target or not. Then, he had 453 yards after the catch.

Granted, Daboll was often using Hillis as a wideout primarily because Cleveland had/has quite possibly the worst wide-receiving corps in the league. Still, this guy has hands, great body control, good ups and holds on to the ball. Watch 2:10 of these highlights for this amazing catch from 2010 against the Falcons – it’s reminiscent of Moeaki’s stunning grab against the 49ers that year (he’s got another great one at 2:55). Heck, it might even be interesting to see him lined up at TE, despite the fact we already have two good ends.

4.) Poe at DE, in coverage

While we still don’t totally know what we are going to get out of Poe at this point, we do know that Crennel is going to move him around. Initially billed as a run-stuffer, Crennel has been trying to coach him up as a pass rusher. If he develops as both, I think the Chiefs will want to move him to whatever part of the opposing offensive line is the weakest. If that team has a Barry Richardson on their starting roster, we will find him and put a monster of a man right on top of him. Also, given Poe’s ability to crash down and take out blockers, he could be a great lead-man for an unbalanced blitz. Let him cut down his double team on one of the edges as Houston, Hali and DJ rush through to get at the QB.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Another thing that Crennel was successful with in New England was getting Vince Wilfork to step back in to zone coverage every now and then. It sounds crazy – and it is – but opposing offenses never see it coming. Heck, Wilfork even had two interceptions last year. While I don’t expect Poe to be a ball hawk or to be able to cover Gronkowski man-to-man or any silliness like that, using him this way would still have some major benefits. 1.) Having him step off suddenly puts the opposing offensive line in disarray up the middle in a way that can be exploited as they figure out whom to shift to and block. 2.) If you’re worried about a speedy TE being able to pick up too much speed off the line and want to slow him down has he crosses through the middle, Poe putting his 349-pound shoulder into him will sure accomplish that.

I’m quite certain that right about now most of you are getting pretty frothy about all the undrafted rookie free agents the Chiefs are looking at and/or signing so I’ll apologize up front if my offering today takes away from such unbridled excitement. Nevertheless, I am what I am and I do what I do.  So if you’ve been feeling a little neglected, perhaps even frustrated, as a result of going without my statistical emissions for awhile, today I render unto you an opportunity to once again revel in statistical bliss. Yep, the cold, hard, analytical world of Double D is back. Jones away.

What got me started on all this was a recommended reading link from Mike Tanier over at Football Outsiders. The name of the site is Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services. Maybe some of you are already familiar with the Ourlads folks but discovering it was all fresh to me. Long story short, on the home page of Ourlads I happened across a pdf link under the heading of “Relevance Of The Combine”, penned by Joe Landers back in 2009. Hmm, thought I.

In a nutshell, Landers compiled and studied combine results for all positions over a 4 year span, 2005 through 2008, to see whether, or to what degree, combine performance was an indicator of future success in the NFL.  His leading definition of success was whether the prospect played 1^st team during the 2008 season. What he determined, among other things and perhaps not surprisingly, is that certain measurables tend to be more important than others relative to each position.  For example, doing well in the 40 yard dash, broad jump, and vertical jump appear to be important for the wide receiver position as predictors of future NFL success.

The foundational element of Landers analysis was to calculate peer averages for each attribute test at each position. He then compared a prospect’s performance to the peer average for that position and simply came up with a metric he termed “Exceeded Peer Average” or EPA for short.  What he essentially learned was that, depending upon position, if a prospect landed in the right EPA bucket(s), and padded on enough extra EPAs in other, less important, attribute tests that the odds of that prospect making 1^st team were noticeably greater.

After wading through and understanding Landers’ analysis, the obvious next step for yours truly was of course to see how well the Chiefs’ 2012 draft class fared against their peers and what players to feel most hopeful about. Right?

Let’s begin with our #1 draft pick shall we?

At the DT position, Landers notes that there were 5 prospects who EPA’d in all 6 attribute tests for that position. In 2008, all 5 of those prospects were starters. Interestingly enough, DT turns out to be the only position where exceeding the peer average on all metrics for the position ultimately translated into a starting job.  

The rest of the breakdown goes like this:  12% of prospects with 5 EPAs started, 11% with 4 EPAs started, 12% with 3 EPAs started, 12% with 2 EPAs started, 14% with 1 EPAs started, and 11% with no EPAs started. All in all, short of scoring 6 EPAs, exceeding peer averages at the combine does not appear to be a very good indicator that a DT is likely to become a starter. Still, Landers goes on to note that the risk of bust decreases for DTs who score in the 3 to 5 EPA range, wherein the odds are fairly good for a prospect scoring in that range to at least be either 2 Deep or on the roster. Landers ultimately forecasts future success for a DT prospect to most likely involve an EPA in the 3 cone and in at least 4 other categories.

Using Landers numbers from his 2005 to 2008 dataset (which have probably changed moderately), the peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages for DTs were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.61 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.67 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 30.10”; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 106”; 52% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.11 sec; 61% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 26.43; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

From this, Landers surmised that an EPA score in the 3 Cone test appears to be the most important indicator of all for DTs wherein 65% of 2008 starters achieved the EPA level as prospects.  Not really too surprising given the need for quickness within close confines that is typically demanded by this position.

Okay so given all that, how did Dontari Poe score relative to his peers? Well, before I answer that question, I think it is probably important and fair to take into consideration that the average weight of a DT prospect is around 305 lbs wherein Poe weighed in at 346 lbs. In other words, Landers does not distinguish between the typically bigger NTs versus typically smaller 43 DTs. To paraphrase Sir Isaac Newton, gravity is such a drag. More on that later.

Dontari Poe’s results were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.56 sec; EPA

Three Cone: 7.9 sec

Vertical Jump: 29.5”

Broad Jump: 105”

Forty Yard Dash: 4.98 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 44; EPA

 In summary, Poe scored EPAs in 3 metrics, which Landers views as respectable, but came up a bit short in the most important of all, the 3 Cone Drill. So what can we take away from all this?

While it might add to our optimism to know that Dontari Poe exceeded peer averages on all 6 metrics, or at least on the 3 cone and 4 other categories, the reality is that Dontari Poe is a signficantly larger guy than the average member of his peer group. Put simply, he has about 40 extra pounds to lug around compared to the average DT. Think of it this way, strap an extra 40 pounds on your back, and see if you can run the three cone drill just as fast as you did without the extra weight.

Poe’s bigness couldn’t help but weigh on my thinking. Not satisfied that Poe’s numbers represented an apples to apples comparison, I decided I to look up recent combine scores of DTs, sorted by weight. Poe, at 346,is the 5^th heaviest DT to weigh in, being bested on the scales only by the likes of Ahmad Childress, Terrence Cody and Alameda Ta’amu. Scanning the names of other heavyweight contenders, you’ll also find names like Paul Soliai, Kenrick Ellis, Junior Siavii (oops), Haloti Ngata, BJ Raji, Jerrell Powe, and Phil Taylor. Ah, apples to apples.

Now, within this group, I found that Poe scored impressively well compared to the other apples. For example, Poe’s 3 cone time matched that of BJ Raji’s and exceeded, by .07 seconds, that of Haloti Ngata’s. I took this is a step further and averaged the 3 cone scores of all DTs weighing 330 lbs or more. The result? 8.00 secs. Using my own apples to apples, perhaps simplistic, comparison dataset, I unabashedly conclude that Dontari Poe also scored an EPA in the 3 cone drill for the Nose Tackle position.

That’s now makes 4 EPAs for Poe, for those keeping track.

DD’s Broad Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 100”. Chalk up another EPA for Poe. That’s 5.  

DD’s Vertical Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 25.76”. And there you go, another EPA for Poe, thus giving him a perfect score of 6 among his NT peers, at least by my reckoning.

Given Landers observation that all 5 DTs who attained a perfect score of 6 EPAs in his analysis ended up as 1^st teamers, I can’t help but feel a bit more optimistic about Poe’s future manning the interior of the Chiefs DL? Eventually anyway.

Seeing as how this post has gotten a bit lengthy, I’ll leave discussion of our remaining 2012 draft picks for future installment(s). Stay tuned, I promise you a surprise or two.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you think Addicts? Ready to be a Poe Boy now? 

There seems to be a lot of misconceptions and–dare I say–anger afloat concerning the Chiefs first round draft pick NT Dontari Poe. I think the biggest misconception in currency is that the only reason Dontari Poe got 1^st round attention is because he posted eye-popping combine numbers.  Put differently, because he performed so strongly in Indy, he was immediately labeled a “Workout Warrior,” and as a result, drew upon himself greater scrutiny, was assumed suspect for performing so well, and thus became increasingly relegated by many into the “destined to be a bust” category in typical knee-jerk, mob mentality fashion.

Please allow me to at least set the record straight on this one. Well before Dontari Poe made noise at the NFL Combine, the consensus view held that he was the best Nose Tackle prospect in this draft and almost universally assumed to be a 1st round draft candidate.  In other words, the Combine did not transform Dontari Poe into a 1st round pick. It merely underscored an already popular sentiment that Poe’s physical impressiveness (is that a word?) combined with his elite speed and athleticism all pointed to a well-founded belief that Poe possessed the right tools to be a dominating force in the NFL. In this respect at least, Poe is not unlike a lot of 1^st round prospects: either you believe or you don’t.

For the record, I had Poe as the Chiefs’ 1st round draft pick in the mock draft that I posted way back on March 15^th, well before the Combine.  I’m happy and proud to admit that I’ve been on the Poe bandwagon ever since and fully expect to see him develop into a very scary, disruptive force under the talented guidance of Romeo Crennel and co. Add to that with the fact that Crennel was absolutely gushing about landing Poe, which highly suggests to me that Romeo Crennel is going to make it his personal mission to see that Poe succeeds. To that end, I think we can all agree that Crennel is anything but an idiot when it comes to identifying defensive talent and especially when it comes to coaching defensive linemen. Crennel now has his guy, so I say let’s respect what RAC brings to the party and embrace this pick until given reason to feel otherwise.

Nose Tackle has been the most pressing need for the Chiefs defense ever since they converted to the 3-4 scheme. In my opinion, Poe’s size, strength, and quickness fit very closely to what you look for in a zero technique. I know it’s been said a million times over, but for this position, the ability to occupy multiple blockers and collapse the pocket is way more important than just racking up tackles and sacks. In other words: don’t let Dontari Poe’s lack of stats and lack of post-season recognitions convince you that he won’t be put in a position do exactly what he needs to do to make the Chiefs’ defense once again feared by all.

I also think that Crennel responded to the “lack of production” argument in a very direct and comprehensive way. He pointed out that Poe, while at Memphis, was asked to be a “jack of all trades,” essentially playing/covering all positions on the DL and was thus never really put into a position where he  could be the master of one. This simply confirms what I already believed about Poe’s college football experience. He worked under multiple coaches within an inferior, talent-deprived league without any kind of real support around him or meaningful guidance above him. The situation and opportunity for Poe has now taken a dramatic turn for the better. Have faith.

On a slightly different level, I also find this pick absolutely fascinating and it says a few things to me.

First off, Scott Pioli is not cut entirely of “game tape” cloth when it comes to the NFL draft, as many seem to believe.  On the surface at least, it would seem that in Poe’s case, that “game tape” was barely a consideration (unless position versatility became the deciding factor, but I rather doubt that to be the case). While one can find examples of Poe flashing greatness, there is not really some great body of work one can point to. Again, I have to go back to what I just I said – Pioli and Crennel’s evaluation suggest that they must see in him an Indy racer that, to date, has only been taken out in a quiet cul-de-sac by a student driver.

Secondly, whether you love it or hate it, this selection is anything but boring. It is, echoing the words of Big Matt, a “swing for the fences” approach by Pioli. I don’t see how anyone can’t help but love that. As much as I personally wanted Poe to be the selection, I didn’t actually think it would happen because I figured that despite Poe’s high upside, his apparent lack of college level production would ultimately dump him into Pioli’s “way too risky” bin. This pick now tells me that Pioli indeed has some real gambler in him; this pick, were it to fail, will no doubt put Pioli’s neck square on the chopping block.

Thirdly, Scott Pioli must really respect Romeo Crennel’s knowledge of the game, ability to develop talent and overall input when it comes to player assessment. I just have a hard time seeing this pick as happening without RAC saying, in a very large way, “that’s the one guy I want.” I am sure we’ll probably never know if, given the choice between Kuechly and Poe, which the Chiefs’ would have preferred, but Crennel’s enthusiastic response to this pick seems to suggest that Poe was quite likely the Chiefs’ number one target going in, at least as far as realistically obtainable players go.

Additional reflections on the draft so far:

I was really surprised to see 4 QBs taken in the first round, but I at least understand the reasoning behind those moves.

I was equally surprised to see only 4 WRs in the 1^st round. Back in March, because this position was far and away the most in need for teams around the league, I predicted that 6 would be off the board by the end of the 1^st round. Albeit the fact that 4 1^st rounds WRs is (I believe) more than we’ve seen in recent years, it is a(n upward) trend that I fully expect to see continue for the foreseeable future.

I’m really excited about our 2^nd round prospects. The available day two talent in this year’s draft seems quite good.  Moreover, round 2 seems like a can’t-miss opportunity for the Chiefs to upgrade the roster in a significant way.  Indeed, coming away with any of the following players, in no particular order would put a big smile on my face:

WR Stephen Hill

WR Reuben Randle

WR Mohammed Sanu

C/G Peter Konz

OT/G Cordy Glenn

G Amini Silatulo

CB Janoris Jenkins

TE Dwayne Allen

TE Coby Fleener

That’s my Double Take Addicts.

What’s your take?

The Kansas City Chiefs really wanted Dontai Poe.

According to Josh Looney of KCChiefs.com, the Chiefs passed on two offers to trade back so that they could get their man.

“We felt that if we moved back a little too far, even though we were getting some extra currency in extra picks, we felt that (Dontari) was the right player for us,” Chiefs GM Scott Pioli said. “We didn’t want to move too far away from him and risk the chance of not being able to get him.”

I think this speaks a lot to how much the Chiefs believe Poe can help them. I often criticize Scott Pioli for being too cautions. While most fans view Poe as a risky boom or bust pick, Pioli actually viewed him as safe, so much so that he turned down extra draft picks so that he could select him.

None of this means that Pioli is right of course. Just because he thinks Poe is a safe pick doesn’t mean he won’t bust.

Still, the Chiefs have a pretty good defensive brain trust with Romeo Crennel as their head coach/defensive coordinator. Let’s hope they got it right.