Consider this an extension of the “Of Combines and Correlations” series if you will.  However, instead of looking at just rookie scores, I’ve decided to take it a step further to see how our entire roster performed in physical attribute testing, whether through the NFL Combine or Pro Days, how those players compare amongst themselves within their position group, how they stack up against their NFL position peers, and then maybe make some assessments as whether they are beating the odds or falling in line with Joe Landers predictive model.  If you’re new to this approach, you can get a better understanding of what this is all about and perhaps why it even matters by simply reviewing Of Combines and Correlations – Part 1.

Today, we take a look at physical attribute scores for the current roster of Chiefs wide recievers as shown below.

As perhaps you may recall from Of Combines and Correlations – Part 4, Landers concludes from his statistical analysis of the 5 year combine database ending in 2008, that wide receivers who exceeded peer average in the 40 yard dash and vertical jump, plus earned at least two EPAs on top of that had the best odds for future NFL success and that 6 EPAs was optimal, again provided that EPAs in the 40 and VJ were among the EPAs earned.

The first thing that probably catches your eyes here is Josh Bellamy’s perfect* score of 7 EPAs (*noting that WRs almost never participate in the Long Shuttle Drill). 7 would seem even better than 6, right? Well, going off of Landers 5 year dataset, only one receiver achieved 7 EPAs, and as of 2008, that player was not a starter but did at least make roster.  So noted, given the small sample size, I personally wouldn’t make any statistical distinction between 7 EPAs and the optimum 6 EPAs.

Breaking it down a little, the current roster is composed of 3 receivers who achieved 6 EPAs or better, Bellamy, Kinnie, and Wylie, all of whom are rookies.  4th round pick Wylie seems to be leading the pack in terms of camp productivity however the undrafted rookies, Bellamy and local product Kinnie, have certainly also made some plays when given the opportunity.  It’s tough to figure out at this point what the Chiefs plan to do with all this fresh infusion of speed and athleticism in the context of a 53 man roster, but it will be an interesting story to watch nonetheless. Also, keep in mind that Landers timeline for determining NFL success (i.e., 1st teamer status) is 5 years or less from the time of being drafted (or in the case of UDFA’s, being signed).

Of these three, I suppose I am most optimistic about Wylie in terms of making the 53 man roster and having an immediate impact as a returner. In the case of Bellamy, he’s definitely garnered a lot of well deserved attention in training camp to date. Similarly, Kinnie has flashed some ability as a big, speedy, physical red zone threat with good hands.

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending upon how one views the situation, the Chiefs are likely to only keep 6 receivers on the active roster and those most likely to make the final cut at this point seem to be Bowe, Breaston, Baldwin, McCluster, Wylie and I’m going to guess Copper (as a special teamer).  In the case of both Bellamy and Kinnie, even if the Chiefs are intending to slate both for the practice squad (and let’s not  leave Jeremy Horne out of this conversation either) I would really hate to see either of those guys get snatched up on waivers while we’re waiting to place them on the practice squad.

Of course, there remains several weeks before the Chiefs have to make that final cut. Things can change, injuries, competition, whatever so perhaps one or more of these guys on the outside develops quickly between now and then and earns (or steps into) an open roster spot? Scott Pioli also needs to think about the long term future of the organization.

Will Bowe be signed to a long term deal? Will he be franchised two years in a row (that second year gets pretty expensive mind you)? There are a number of things going on that suggest to me that this will be Dwayne Bowe’s last season with the Chiefs. Hopefully we get something valuable in exchange for him.

I’m also not all that certain that Steve Breaston will be around much longer either. His contract is not expensive and his production last season was nothing to write home about. I strongly recommend everyone link here to get Football Outsiders evaluation of both Bowe’s and Breaston’s 2011 campaign. Frankly, neither particularly wowed in terms of elite receiver qualifications.

With what appears to be the recent emergence of Baldwin and McCluster, along with the need to develop a receiver or two to replace Bowe, perhaps Breaston suddenly becomes expendable and one or more of these guys on the bubble can avoid the practice team/waiver conundrum and gets a year to develop as part of the regular 53 man squad? It’s also hard to say at this point whether Copper is a lock between now and the final cut.

That my Double Take Addicts.

Let me hear your thoughts on all this. Are you impressed by the physical talent and potential of the Chiefs’ rookie wide receivers this year? Are you at all surprised by what appears to be a less-than-ideal physical attribute skills of the receivers currently on the roster;  especially considering we’re talking about guys that most might consider the mainstays of our receiver corps? Lastly, what do you think holds for the future of this group?

A friend of mine was at a panel discussion recently where a few NFL players were around to answer questions from fans. My friend asked Rams RB Steven Jackson what his philosophy is when it comes to hitting his teammates in training camp. Without hesitation he said, “They ain’t my teammates until week one.”

Patriots T Nate Solder was also there and continued the thought, “If you don’t go full steam, someone will take your job.”

Those two quotes perfectly reflect what training camp is all about. Together, they capture the kill-or-be-killed mentality that is in these players’ minds, even as they’re beating up on guys they are sharing a locker room, possibly a dorm room and several meals with. For now.

A few players are safe, a few others can probably count on remaining on the roster at least, but most of 90 men at St. Joe’s have to fight. For the bottom 68, these next few weeks will be their best chance to prove their worth. For the bottom 45, this will likely be their only chance – 37 will be cut and the best eight will receive practice-squad offers.

Although this keeps them on the team, it all but ensures that they will have no shot of playing this season unless there is a catastrophic series of injures at their position. They will spend every practice this season trying to quickly learn a few plays and formations that the Chiefs’ opponents run that week, and will be trying to emulate those for the starters’ benefit. They will not spend time learning the Chiefs playbooks or breaking down game film. They will essentially be human tackle bags.

The preseason is a strange time because of this dynamic. On one hand, it’s the first glimpse of football us crazed fans have seen since the first week of February. On the other hand, it’s not real football.

When the starters are on the field, they are essentially testing their chemistry and trying not to get hurt. When the backups come on, it’s like some sort of disorganized Thunderdome.

From the fan perspective, it’s great because it’s the only chance we get to see our depth players in action. From the starter’s perspective, it’s awful because they get little pay and no glory for essentially the same risk of injury. For those fighting for a roster spot, it is the Coliseum.

I say all of this as a drawn out preface to everything else I am going to be talking about for the rest of the preseason. We have to understand that everything we see from backup and auditioning players in preseason games is like a peek into bizarro world. You can’t take it for face value, particularly at the quarterback position. Opposing backup DB’s are bad, but the 2^nd and 3^rd-string O-lines are just as bad. QB’s both have to dance around behind comically dysfunctional blocking while throwing to receivers slicing through similarly discombobulated coverage.

Nonetheless, through this crystal ball we must look to determine whether or not we think these players are worthy of the NFL – a league where the gameplay is totally different than this preseason silliness.

I looked back at all of Rickie Stanzi’s 2011 snaps to see how he did in preseason bizarro world. Overall, he did not bad – especially considering the truncated offseason programs. But, if he is going to beat out Brady Quinn and put some heat on Matt Cassel, he is going to have to improve quite a bit.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Pre-Snap, Pocket Presence

Stanzi was a known for his quickness at Iowa, and routinely made great throws off of scrambles and bootlegs. Posting a 40-yard dash time of 4.93 at the Combine isn’t bad for a QB, but that doesn’t qualify as speed in the NFL. In both the 2011 preseason film I watched from him and the reports I’ve seen so far from 2012 training camp, Stanzi has been off target on the run. At this level, DB’s are simply able to keep up with receivers, even if the QB extends the play. If he is going to continue to make this a key part of his game, he has to get a lot better at it.

He also had trouble sensing the rush last preseason – he either panicked and got rid of the ball unnecessarily or held it too long. In his defense, our backup O-linemen played awful.

He also seemed to be in over his head in making pre-snap adjustments. Cordell at The Film Room (a must-follow for you Twitter people out there) said, “Thing I liked about #Chiefs Tyler Palko was pre-snap…in preseason rarely ran a bad play…Stanzi was opposite, plays routinely blown up.” That’s right, when you’re being negatively compared to Palko, we have a problem.

But, that is what I often heard last year – that Palko was more confident and comfortable running the offense and making good decisions. Therefore, he started over Ricky. Still, the fact that Palko couldn’t throw a ball accurately more than seven yards should have also come into play in that assessment.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Technique

I’m not QB expert, but I saw Stanzi several times making the type of weird side-armed throws that Brett Farve and Tony Romo are known for. If you can be accurate with them, then it’s no problem. But, usually it is one of those college habits that needs to be unlearned as the player adjusts to exponentially better defenders.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Decision-Making, Throw Power

Against the Rams last year, Stanzi really put it together. Granted, St. Louis had one of the worst defenses on the NFL last year and Stanzi was playing their backups. Still, he showed poise and good decision-making. Although he definitely made some bad reads in the game, he diagnosed some good throws and executed them quickly. He relied heavily on TE’s and receivers going down the middle. My real concern was his arm strength, however. He took a couple of shots with long bombs, but both were lobbed as if they’d been fired from a mortar. When I looked back at his college tape, I saw much the same thing. All of his deep balls seemed to be from extremely high arcs. Furthermore, he threw a few balls that were a bit wobbly even on intermediate routes.

This to me means that he has roughly the same physical ceiling as Matt Cassel, which means he’s automatically out of the elite range of NFL QB’s even if develops all his other skills. However, if he can get better at all of the other things, there’s no reason he can’t be a very productive quarterback in this league. If he can outplay Quinn and Cassel with good, quick decision-making and accurate passing, we may even see him on the field this season. With big receivers and a run game that sets up play action well, he may not need to fire lasers deep.

What’s more, if he can get really good and fast at the short throws, he has a chance to be successful in the same way that Kurt Warner was able to be in his comeback as a Cardinal. This would mean that Stanzi will have to act and think like a veteran quick, but it’s certainly not impossible.

Either way, there are few players that I am more interested to see out there on the field for this round of bizarro world football than Ricky Stanzi.

Do not enter the battle unless you know you are going to win.

- Sun Tzu

Training Camp opens July 28^th in St. Joe. Now we begin the hard work that will ultimately determine who the Chiefs will be in 2012. Our success or failure will be determined by things like how well the players and coaches internalize the playbook; who wins critical position battles; what sort of shape the players are in; and which players make the cut. As Sun Tzu says, the determinant of winning is what happens before you step onto the battlefield.

A lot of posts this summer have been devoted to the position battles, and for good reason. There are key questions, like who the #2 quarterback will be; who will emerge as our slot receiver; whether Jevon Belcher will beat out Brandon Siler at weakside linebacker; and whether Jeff Allen will push Ryan Lilja at left guard. Each of those questions will come out of the wash in the coming weeks.

I want to delve into three other critical puzzles from training camp that need to be solved. These puzzles may well play a decisive role in whether the Chiefs compete for the AFC Championship or not. All of these puzzles revolve around chemistry and leadership, which I maintain are the critical difference makers between championship teams and well, teams like the Chiefs who have fielded over the years. My top three puzzles that need solving from this year’s training camp are:

Offensive Leadership: We lost some key locker room leaders in Casey Wiegmann and Thomas Jones. During practice, team meetings, on the sidelines and in the huddle, who will emerge as leaders on offense? Who will be the players that motivate others, hold players accountable for sloppy play or misbehavior and bring out the best in each Chief? Will it be Matt Cassel? Past reports have shown Cassel to be a commander in the huddle, a gym rat off the field and a fiery competitor on the field. Might it be Ryan Lilja or Brandon Albert? Could it be Dwayne Bowe, Steve Breaston or Jamaal Charles? Every championship team has a universally respected, veteran leader or two that takes charge and puts the team on his shoulders. It is unclear to me right now who that leader will be on the offensive side, although we have several great candidates.

Defensive Identity: We are absolutely loaded with talent on the defensive side. From two lockdown corners to two outside linebackers who can both rush to a new tank in the middle of our defense in Dontari Poe to perhaps the soon-to-be best field general in the league in Eric Berry we have all the ingredients we need to win. But what will the identity of this 2012 Chiefs defense be? Romeo is famous for his bend-but-don’t-break defenses. But to get us to the next level (multiple playoff wins in 2012), we need something more than bend-but-don’t-break. I wonder what Crennel will have in mind after seeing what’s he got in training camp? Will we be the Monsters of the Midway or the Steel Curtain? Will we have the intimidating toughness of the Ray Lewis-led Ravens? Will we have the big play potential of Troy Polamalu’s Steelers? What will emerge as the overall character of this defense? Whatever it is won’t be known by just looking at the quality of the personnel. Our defensive character will emerge as a unit, not just emanating from one or two individuals.

Chain of Command: Collectively, we cringed every time the Chiefs got a delay of game penalty last year because Todd Haley and his strange system of offensive playcalling just could not get the plays onto the field in time. That complete breakdown in communications was indicative of a larger collapse in the chain of command on the coaching side. For whatever reason, there was disunity within the coaching staff, resulting in frayed relationships, delay of game penalties and perhaps even faulty game-planning. It’s time for Romeo to institute teachings from his military background and years of coaching experience, while re-forging the Chiefs coaching staff into one, seamless unit.

Of these three potential puzzles, I think the most important one to solve is the chain of command among the coaching staff. Team sports (and, in fact, most successful enterprises) need strong leadership and an equally strong and clear chain of command. Then players can maximize their abilities within that framework and play with reckless abandon.

As training camp blends into the pre-season, let’s keep an eye out for the coaching chain of command. Without it, we’ll be just another regular season team. Addicts, what do you think is the top puzzle to solve coming out of training camp?