Last time, we explored what to expect from, and what should be expected of, Jeff Allen this year. Moving forward with our examination of our newest offensive linemen, we turn our attention to Donald Stephenson.

Donald Stephenson only played two years in college which some people are taking as a cause for concern. But when he did play, it was at the position on the line with perhaps the least margin for error: blind-side tackle. I say “blind-side tackle” because LT is only the toughest position when the QB’s right-handed (okay: so that’s the case, like, 99.5 percent of the time), but what makes it tough is not which side of the center you’re playing at, but the fact that the QB can’t see what’s coming from your direction and a failed block could result in huge consequences (ask Joe Thiesman).

At his time at Oklahoma, Stephenson logged over 100 knockdowns in each of his two years starting. For comparison, Jeff Allen averaged somewhere in the mid-80s per year over a four year span in college. Additionally, at the NFL level, 100 knockdowns is generally the benchmark for OLs to hit if they wish to be in serious contention for a Pro Bowl berth.

A knockdown is almost as simple as it sounds like… almost. A knockdown is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground, and there are two types of knockdown. The first type, which doesn’t really have a special name, is when you force the defender you’re blocking to the ground and move on to take on a still-standing defender. The second type is called a “pancake” and consists of, as you’re knocking a player down, following him to the ground, landing on top of him, and staying put (effectively removing any chance that defender had of making a stop for the rest of that play, since, if you can’t get up, you likely can’t tackle/sack anybody, you can’t defend/intercept any passes and you can’t force/recover any fumbles).

Regular knockdowns are preferable for running plays when the OL is serving as a lead blocker. In this case, when a defender is knocked down, by the time he gets back up the play is long past him. Pancakes are best reserved as the type of knockdown to use in a pass play. As I previously stated, if you can’t get up, you can’t get sacks/interceptions/etc. Knockdowns are one of few stats kept track of for OLs throughout their football careers (you’ll also see stats for sacks allowed, QB hurries allowed and TD-resulting blocks). When you hear “knockdown” just remember that this number includes pancakes. Like all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares, all pancakes are knockdowns but not all knockdowns are pancakes.

Essentially, Stephenson did very well in neutralizing players in large part due to this ability. To boot, the Oklahoma line as a whole only gave up 11 sacks last season… as a whole!

So, if Stephenson played so well, why did he only start for two years in college? When Stephenson arrived in Oklahoma he found himself behind junior OT Trent Williams on the depth chart. The same Trent Williams that the Redskins chose as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. When Williams arrived in Oklahoma in 2006 he found himself in a similar quandary sitting behind OT Branndon Braxton. Fortunately (for Williams) Braxton went down to injury partway into the 2006 season and Williams was afforded the opportunity to showcase his abilities as a freshman. The next season the coaches split snaps between Williams and Braxton. Stephenson wasn’t quite so fortunate to receive a similar opportunity; following Braxton’s departure, Williams did not miss college playing time with the exception of the last regular season game of his senior year.

We should probably give Stephenson a little more attention than we have been, don’t you think?

Stephenson is set to be a “swing” tackle this year. If Albert or Winston need a breather, Stephenson will be our guy. And believe it or not, swing tackle is one of the tougher jobs on the offensive line. Don’t believe me? You’ve seen a tackle come out of his stance before; one of the first things he does is flip his hips to the outside. Get out of your chair and try it. To spare you some embarrassment (or at least an explanation to your co-workers), I won’t ask you to get down in a three-point stance; you can start off in a position that still has a good bend in the knees and waist. Now, open your hips out to the right (like a RT) bringing your arms up like you’re blocking. Now, try it opening your hips out to the left. One of those felt more natural and fluid than the other, didn’t it?* This plays a large part of why great RTs can make lousy LTs, and vice versa; you’re trying to get your body to do something that just doesn’t feel right.

* It did.

In order to excel in the swing tackle role (truly excel), Stephenson will have to rep this over and over and over again until opening his hips one way feels just as natural and fluid as opening his hips the other way to realize similar success at both positions (LT and RT). Thankfully, his success in college at LT seems to indicate that he’s well versed in opening his hips to the left, so Cassel won’t have to worry much about his blindside when Albert needs a break. How well Stephenson will do when Winston needs a break is the bigger question mark right now.

I am a huge proponent of the “lockup Albert to a long-term deal” crowd, and I think Winston is a Godsend, but Stephenson will be a significant contributor. As Paddy recently pointed out, Albert is ranked highly in pass protection, and Winston in run blocking. If Stephenson can spell our players for a stretch of plays they’re less successful at (Albert on runs and Winston on passes), it’ll keep our starters fresh and read to dominate even more on the plays they’re best at. That would be a significant contribution.

So is Stephenson a starter this year? No. Will he be a starter for the Chiefs in the long-term? Not if Pioli does his job and extends Albert’s contract. But he will play an important part in our line’s success this year, and that is worth a third-round pick.

Well played, Pioli, well played…

After the selection of Dontari Poe with the 11th overall pick, Scott Pioli surprised Chiefs Nation further by taking not one, but two more linemen with the next picks, this time on the offensive side of the ball.

It’s hard to surmise which pick was more surprising. Illinois OT Jeff Allen didn’t get much media coverage before the draft, but do you know who did? C Peter Konz and OT Mike Adams, both of whom were still available. “C’MON, PIOLI! Who is this guy?” cried Chiefs Nation. And the internet exploded killing hundreds and severely injuring thousands as Chiefs fans scoured the message boards everywhere lamenting the passing of Konz and Adams, and trying to find out just who Jeff Allen is (true story).

But then Pioli goes and drafts Donald Stephenson in Round 3. Okay; he’s a home boy and was invited to the Chiefs’ local pro day, at least we know who he is. But didn’t most pundits predict him to go in the 5th Round, some as early as round 4 to be fair, but more than that as late as Round 6?!?

With the exception of the pass rushing variety and the automatic-upgrade-to-any-team variety, linemen are not sexy draft picks. They’re just not. Linemen are like most businesses’ support staffs: if they do their job well, they run the risk of going unnoticed and their talents taken for granted, so only when they falter are they guaranteed to get attention. But also like support staffs, their success is vital in keeping things running like a well-oiled machine.

As we learned shortly after the pick, Jeff Allen played throughout his entire college career, starting at RT and making the move to LT shortly thereafter, and earning awards, honors and mentions all along his way. Allen is projected to ultimately supplant Ryan Lilja at LG, a move not uncommon when college players turn pro (just this year the League even saw a veteran make the move when PIT moved Willie Colon, formerly a T, to G for the upcoming season). A move like this tends to be less mentally taxing on a player than you might think. Whereas D-Linemen can succeed well knowing their own individual assignment and trusting their teammates to know theirs, O-Linemen succeed best when they know not just their individual blocking assignment, but also the assignments of the guys beside them… Oh! Also their mirror counterparts at the other end of the line.

Whether you’ve only played football in video games or played physically at some level in your life, you should probably know that when a play is added to the offensive playbook it’s actually added twice: one the way the play was originally drawn up, and the other, the mirror image of that play. Usually something minute in the play call tells the players which way the play’s going. [Ex: Say a run play’s called the “25 Pitch”. The play calling system we’re using might be that the “5” in “25” means the pitch is going to the left. If the play’s called as “26 Pitch”, the “6” would mean it’s going to the right.] When looking at the play in its original and in its reverse, the change in WR routes and/or RB assignments is usually pretty noticeable between the two versions. What might be overlooked, or not even considered without thinking, is that blocking assignments change between the two as well. It’s beneficial to an OL to not just know what they’re doing individually on one version of the play, but also what their mirror counterparts are doing on the other side, because they’ll be expected to do the same when the play’s called in the opposite direction. Bear in mind, this is also while knowing what blocking assignments the man next to you in line will be required to make. Ultimately, the best OLs wind up knowing what everyone’s assignments on the line are, because it’s kind of important.

The real consideration when an OL changes position is whether or not they have the physical tools to make the transition.

Cs can be a little bit smaller than their fellow linemen, as their blocking assignments will often involve assisting a G on a block, picking up a smaller blitzer (read: LB or S) or (in runs up the gut) blocking a LB downfield (also called “on the next level”). Plus, the half a moment it takes to snap the ball is a half a moment during which your teammates have already engaged in their blocks (so making a C’s assignment to be to assist a G on a block or pick up a blitzer makes sense, as these things can wait a half moment).

Gs, working between the C and a T, can have a little less side-to-side foot quickness than, say, Ts, but should count forward moving speed as one of their greatest assets as they’ll be required to, often enough, break from the line on a pull or a trap.

Ts, not necessarily having someone to their outer side (if no TE is lined up), benefit most from side-to-side foot quickness as there’s a whole open field on the outer side of them that they absolutely must be able to defend. I hear that the failure to do this is called “Barry the Bullfighter Syndrome” around these parts.

May 13, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs first round draft pick Dontari Poe (92, right) and defensive end Ethan Johnson (70) run drills with defensive line coach Anthony Pleasant at the Kansas City Chiefs practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

When considering the Chiefs’ choice to draft Dontari Poe, it’s hard for the average football fan to ignore his lack of college production, or the negative connotations of being labeled a “workout warrior.” One thing is clear, however: Poe’s lot in the NFL will be made, first and foremost, at the NT position. As we get closer to training camp (a/k/a the first time this year that our linemen can actually, you know, HIT one another), let’s take an in-depth look at Poe and the road ahead.

Romeo Crennel will be the first to point out that Poe did a whole lot of line jumping in college. It’s actually hard to recall if Poe ever lined up in the same “technique” in consecutive plays during his time in Memphis. As Poe’s college coaches and coordinators often played him at several spots throughout the line each and every game, the case could be made that this position jumping is the cause of Poe’s lack of college production. It may even be fair, to an extent, to at least allow some of Poe’s line jumping to account for his lack of college production… but while the tape shows the jumping, it also shows that Poe needs to work on and refine the technical skills (moves) needed by a defensive lineman.

Watching Poe’s tape, you may occasionally see an effective spin move or a well-executed stunt, but he seems to show signs of not having been entirely taught proper execution of the moves and/or which moves are most effectively used in which situations. DL moves other than spin moves and stunts include rip moves, swim moves, speed rushes, bull rushes, shucks and shivers.

From the NT position, the chance to use a spin move (at least effectively and without blowing your assignment) is slim to nil; such opportunities may arise, but not enough that this should be a focus for Poe early on in KC. The same can be said with a speed rush. Lining up head to head on a player (for NTs on the Center, this is often referred to as a “zero technique”), swim moves also carry their risks, as a swim move will bring the D-Lineman up a little higher, in turn allowing the blocker the opportunity to get squarely underneath the DL’s pads and win the leverage war. Stunts* are a more advanced technique and, while I’m sure Poe will eventually be taught and repped on these until he can perform them expertly, I don’t see him attempting these too often this year (at least in the earlier part) unless out of desperation or for the sake of “mixing it up” Crennel calls a play directing Poe to do so. Shucks and shivers are a little difficult to explain in writing, and are slightly more advanced than rips and bull rushes, so I won’t get into them too much now.

*”Stunt” as used here is not in reference to the two types of stunts as described here. Rather I’m referring to the “4-3 Stunt” as utilized and popularized by “Mean” Joe Greene, wherein the DT lines up at an angle and bull rushes the first OL he’s facing with the goal of driving that OL into his neighboring OL(s). The camera work on Poe’s infamous Tulane tape isn’t always at great angles for checking out Poe, but there’s one really good shot of Poe performing a well-executed, successful, Mean-Joe-Greene-style stunt. This happened in some of his other college games too, with the same promising result. In a 3-4, this won’t be the first thing on the coaching staff’s list of things to work on and perfect with Poe, but may come in handy down the line (think 2-4-5 in an obvious passing situation: with added coverage already downfield, if Poe’s able to take out 2-3 OL on his own, it would spell trouble for opposing QBs, especially with the likes of Hali, Houston & Berry on the field… and we’re not talking “taking out” 2-3 OL by being double-teamed or triple-teamed, in that scenario one could always break off to pick up a blitzer. No, we’re talking TAKING OUT as in 2-3 OL suddenly on their asses wondering “Who dat? Who dere?”). Look for this ability to be groomed in the longer term Evolution of Poe.

So, other moves aside, we’re left with the rip, and the bull rush … and our first expectation. Expect these moves to be the first technical skills that Romeo and DL Coach Anthony Pleasant drill into Dontari. How and why these moves work is simple to understand, and should be quick for Poe to pick up in that respect. Knowing when and how to execute these moves well will take time and repetition until the moves becomes more natural and fluid. Priority One in developing Poe will likely be to jump on the live-action thrill of drilling him in these moves.

As I believe most casual fans will know what a rip move is and why it’s used (thank you for making my job easier, EA Sports), I’ll spare going into those details.

A bull rush is also fairly common and self-explanatory, and while I won’t go into too much detail, it’s important to note that bull rushes should play to Poe’s advantage well and should (read: darn well better) become one of his earliest playing strengths. Poe’s size and strength give him an edge in bull rushing, but it’s also important not to gloss over some finer points in the technique in practice (which, given his size and strength, I suspect his Memphis coaches kinda relied on Poe getting by with those attributes alone and didn’t care to coach him more in depth). You can be big and strong in the NFL and still make only a small splash of impact if not taught how to use your size and strength to your advantage. With the bull rush in particular, size and strength could be a huge advantage, but it takes combining that size and strength with body positioning (coming up out of your stance, hand placement, getting low, etc.) to really start seeing great results. Coaches on varying levels may not allow some of their players to rep bull rushes in practice under the misguided notion that size and strength alone will be enough for a player to translate into good bull rushing talent come gameday. Not really. Coaches Crennel and Pleasant will know this, and they’ll be sure to rep and develop Poe into a player capable of making the most out of his bull rushing capabilities.

While teaching, drilling and repping Poe through these activities on the practice field, expect for Crennel and Pleasant to also be teaching him the mental aspects of the position in the film room: what assignments he’ll have in which plays, when to clog, when to penetrate, when move X is more likely to make your assignment, and when move Y is better, etc.

One thing to bear in mind is that “trench warfare” isn’t as rudimentary as it may appear (as if you haven’t gathered that from above). On either side of the ball, each lineman possesses his own strengths and weaknesses according to his physical attributes and technical skills which affect how he plays the game. When squaring off, it takes time to figure out your competitor’s nuances and adjust accordingly (an ongoing battle, as with each adjustment you make to your competitor, your competitor will adjust to deal with your adjustments).

So, Poe’s college stats weren’t too impressive, and his tape looks “average”? Consider this: Poe likely squared off with every offensive lineman Conference USA had to offer. And with each lineman, Poe had to learn new nuances and adjust accordingly, all while facing different blocking schemes at different techniques along the line with different defensive assignments… Altogether, it makes it hard for the common observer to tell what kind of player he’ll become.

So, Poe’s college stats don’t look special. He only appears to show “flashes” in his college tape. Know this: the difficulties and intricacies of line play are greater and more plentiful than meets the eye, and are largely unappreciated by the masses. But one thing’s for sure, with his rare physical attributes, AND the opportunity to line up and take most snaps at one position, AND squaring off against fewer competitors in a game, AND being under the guidance and tutelage of both Coaches Crennel and Pleasant, Poe is much more likely to succeed than to bust.

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For this week’s edition, we put the Chiefs’ 6th round draft pick, RB Cyrus Gray beneath the microscope of Joe Landers’ NFL Combine-based forecasting model.

With further ado, Landers’ RB peer average metrics (bolded being the most important) and first teamer EPA percentages.

Short Shuttle: 4.32 sec; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.73 sec; 25% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.17 sec; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 34.90”; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 117”; 50% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.57 sec; 69% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 18.67; 38% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

To summarize, the leading indicator for RB’s is the 40 yard dash, wherein 69% of RB prospects who achieved an EPA in Lander’s 5 year data set, made first team within 5 years of being drafted. There are other significant, though less compelling, attribute scores which when assessed collectively can also point to success for a RB prospect. These are the Short Shuttle, the Vertical Jump, the Broad Jump, and the 3 Cone Drill.  From all this, Landers concludes that the optimal number of EPAs for a RB prospect is 4, one of which being the 40 yard dash.

Let’s see how Cyrus Gray’s (5’10″, 206 lbs) numbers shake out:

Short Shuttle: 4.28 sec (Pro Day result); EPA

Long Shuttle: Did not participate

Three Cone: 7.17 sec (7.14 sec on his Pro Day); EPA (between Combine and Pro Day scores, close enough)

Vertical Jump: 32.5”

Broad Jump: 114”

Forty yard dash: 4.47 sec; EPA 

Bench Reps: 21; EPA

First off, it is encouraging that Gray achieved an EPA in the most important attribute test of all, the 40 yard dash, and that he scored 4 EPAs overall (technically 3), which Landers concludes is the optimal number to achieve. Gray was projected by some scouts to go as high as the 3rd round; the Chiefs acquired him in the 6th.

Gray’s rep, coming in, is that of a versatile, selfless team player, loaded with intangibles (think Mike Vrabel or Thomas Jones, I guess). In addition to playing RB, Gray’s also experienced at playing FB, returning and covering kicks, shows good hands as a receiver, is reputedly a great pass blocker, and perhaps most importantly, well-suited for the ZBS. I’ve also read that Gray’s game speed is better than his track speed (but then again, that’s often heard about a lot of prospects).

Overall, as a sixth round selection, I think one has to feel pretty good about the potential that Cyrus Gray brings to the Chiefs’ table.  He offers a variety of positional skills which, if nothing else, should enhance the quality of our depth on offense, on special teams, and perhaps in the locker room too. Whether Gray is adequate insurance for Jamaal Charles if, god forbid, he gets hurt again or fails to return to form, is another question.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts?  Do you believe Cyrus Gray will make roster? Practice squad perhaps? If yes, do you see him displacing any current roster member? Who might that be? Assuming he makes roster, what role(s) do you envision him taking on during in his rookie campaign? Gray has some past injury concerns– do you believe those will continue to plague him in the NFL?

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In today’s installment, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs’ 5th round draft pick, CB/S DeQuan Menzie’s turn to be measured, weighed, and assessed under Joe Landers’ forecasting model. In so doing, we’ll operate from the assumption that the Chiefs intend to work Menzie primarily as a Safety rather than as a Cornerback (noting that CB is the position for which Menzie was best known at Bama, playing opposite Dre Kirkpatrick).

We’ll start off by looking at Landers’ peer averages and first teamer EPA percentages (bolded metrics again being the most important) for the Safety position.:

Short Shuttle: 4.25 sec; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Long Shuttle: 11.61 sec; 23% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.04 sec; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 35.82”; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 119”; 29% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 4.58 sec; 74% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA (70% & 69% of Safety prospects were two deepers or made roster, respectively) 

Bench Reps: 16.33; 31% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

 
Put simply, all a Safety prospect has to do is achieve one measly EPA, in the 40 yard dash, and he’s got a pretty good shot, statistically speaking, of making first team within his first 5 years  in the league. None of the other combine metrics seem to matter at all for this position. Landers basically sums this all up in saying that for safeties, “it’s all about fit.” 

So how did the Quan’s performance stand up against his peers?

DeQuan Menzie’s (5’11″, 202 lbs) Combine (*Pro Day) Metrics:

*Short Shuttle: 4.25 sec

*Long Shuttle: 12.05 sec

*Three Cone: 6.93sec; EPA

Vertical Jump: 33”

Broad Jump: 116”

Forty yard dash: 4.67 sec

Bench Reps: Did not participate

Oops.

You see, while Menzie did score one EPA, it unfortunately was not the right one. And if we are to put any stock in Joe Landers research, the forecast for DeQuan Menzie is that he will face an uphill battle, statistically speaking, to even make roster over the next few seasons.

Ouch.

All considered, I am not too sure I want to give DeQuan Menzie the responsibility of covering slot receivers and tight ends, or lunging at running backs for that matter, if he doesn’t have the speed to finish the play.  At the same time, Menzie’s rep is that of guy that can lay on a pretty good hit so there may be a spot for him as a 4th safety and on special teams.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts? Do you feel that Menzie will beat the odds, perhaps even start for the Chiefs someday? Perhaps a better question is, is he an upgrade over Shabby Piscatelli? Taking this further still, do you feel that DeQuan Menzie should be considered an exception to Landers’ predictive model and if so, why? Please put your responses in essay form, 500 words or less. You have 30 minutes. Begin now.

I guess I should first preface this review of Stephenson by pointing out that many Chiefs’ fans struggled to understand the need for, much less the wisdom of, picking a lineman after already spending the first two picks on linemen. I’d say the general/initial consensus about the drafting of  Stephenson was . . . not sexy. That said, let’s examine whether, if at all, Stephenson’s Combine performance statistically projects success for him as an NFL Tackle and see whether that changes anyone’s opinion about the pick.

Joe Lander’s overall assessment for the Offensive Tackle position can summarized by saying that an EPA in the 40 yard dash plus 4 more EPAs on top of that gives an OT prospect the best statistical recipe for NFL success at that position. Landers’ further notes that about 2/3rds of starting OT’s in his data set scored on EPA on the 40 yard dash.

Landers’ OT peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages:

Short Shuttle: 4.74 sec; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.83 sec; 44% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 29.24”; 46% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 102”; 49% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.27 sec; 66% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 24.35; 37% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Donald Stephenson’s (6’5″, 312 lbs) Combine Results:

Short Shuttle: 4.78 sec

Three Cone: 7.52 sec; EPA

Vertical Jump: 35.5”; EPA (whoa, some serious ups)

Broad Jump: 114”; EPA (dang son!) 

Forty yard dash: 4.94 sec; EPA (best time among all OTs at the combine)

Bench Reps: 19

One of the knocks on Stephenson coming into the draft was that he lacked elite strength. Here we seem to see that criticism show up in his rather lowish bench reps score. Aside from that, when he did perform strongly in an attribute test, he performed very strongly, but alas, came up .05 secs short (in the short shuttle) from achieving Landers’ ideal of 5 EPAs.  In other words, he was a mere 1/20 sec away from statistical glory.

The more I consider this pick, the more I like it. I feel that Stephenson just needs better technique and some after hours work in the gym. He has great frame for playing the position, tremendous speed and great athleticism to go with - give him a year under his belt and I can see Stephenson becoming a regular contributor to the rotation and perhaps even dominant addition for our ZBS.  

Coming into this draft, the Chiefs were talent thin at OT tackle depth. We lose either Branden Albert or Eric Winston and we’re in a world of hurt once again. Stephenson comes to us with major conference experience playing both the right and left side, and, as a third round pick up seems to me to be both a great value and a great fit for our system. In other words, I have to admit this pick has grown on me; I think Stephenson’s display of near perfect athleticism at the combine further underscores what I feel this guy will ultimately bring to the success of our offense.

That’s my Double Take.

What’s your take Addicts? 

I’m quite certain that right about now most of you are getting pretty frothy about all the undrafted rookie free agents the Chiefs are looking at and/or signing so I’ll apologize up front if my offering today takes away from such unbridled excitement. Nevertheless, I am what I am and I do what I do.  So if you’ve been feeling a little neglected, perhaps even frustrated, as a result of going without my statistical emissions for awhile, today I render unto you an opportunity to once again revel in statistical bliss. Yep, the cold, hard, analytical world of Double D is back. Jones away.

What got me started on all this was a recommended reading link from Mike Tanier over at Football Outsiders. The name of the site is Ourlads’ NFL Scouting Services. Maybe some of you are already familiar with the Ourlads folks but discovering it was all fresh to me. Long story short, on the home page of Ourlads I happened across a pdf link under the heading of “Relevance Of The Combine”, penned by Joe Landers back in 2009. Hmm, thought I.

In a nutshell, Landers compiled and studied combine results for all positions over a 4 year span, 2005 through 2008, to see whether, or to what degree, combine performance was an indicator of future success in the NFL.  His leading definition of success was whether the prospect played 1^st team during the 2008 season. What he determined, among other things and perhaps not surprisingly, is that certain measurables tend to be more important than others relative to each position.  For example, doing well in the 40 yard dash, broad jump, and vertical jump appear to be important for the wide receiver position as predictors of future NFL success.

The foundational element of Landers analysis was to calculate peer averages for each attribute test at each position. He then compared a prospect’s performance to the peer average for that position and simply came up with a metric he termed “Exceeded Peer Average” or EPA for short.  What he essentially learned was that, depending upon position, if a prospect landed in the right EPA bucket(s), and padded on enough extra EPAs in other, less important, attribute tests that the odds of that prospect making 1^st team were noticeably greater.

After wading through and understanding Landers’ analysis, the obvious next step for yours truly was of course to see how well the Chiefs’ 2012 draft class fared against their peers and what players to feel most hopeful about. Right?

Let’s begin with our #1 draft pick shall we?

At the DT position, Landers notes that there were 5 prospects who EPA’d in all 6 attribute tests for that position. In 2008, all 5 of those prospects were starters. Interestingly enough, DT turns out to be the only position where exceeding the peer average on all metrics for the position ultimately translated into a starting job.  

The rest of the breakdown goes like this:  12% of prospects with 5 EPAs started, 11% with 4 EPAs started, 12% with 3 EPAs started, 12% with 2 EPAs started, 14% with 1 EPAs started, and 11% with no EPAs started. All in all, short of scoring 6 EPAs, exceeding peer averages at the combine does not appear to be a very good indicator that a DT is likely to become a starter. Still, Landers goes on to note that the risk of bust decreases for DTs who score in the 3 to 5 EPA range, wherein the odds are fairly good for a prospect scoring in that range to at least be either 2 Deep or on the roster. Landers ultimately forecasts future success for a DT prospect to most likely involve an EPA in the 3 cone and in at least 4 other categories.

Using Landers numbers from his 2005 to 2008 dataset (which have probably changed moderately), the peer averages and 1^st teamer EPA percentages for DTs were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.61 sec; 57% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Three Cone: 7.67 sec; 65% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Vertical Jump: 30.10”; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Broad Jump: 106”; 52% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Forty yard dash: 5.11 sec; 61% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

Bench Reps: 26.43; 43% of 1^st teamers scored an EPA

From this, Landers surmised that an EPA score in the 3 Cone test appears to be the most important indicator of all for DTs wherein 65% of 2008 starters achieved the EPA level as prospects.  Not really too surprising given the need for quickness within close confines that is typically demanded by this position.

Okay so given all that, how did Dontari Poe score relative to his peers? Well, before I answer that question, I think it is probably important and fair to take into consideration that the average weight of a DT prospect is around 305 lbs wherein Poe weighed in at 346 lbs. In other words, Landers does not distinguish between the typically bigger NTs versus typically smaller 43 DTs. To paraphrase Sir Isaac Newton, gravity is such a drag. More on that later.

Dontari Poe’s results were as follows:

Short Shuttle: 4.56 sec; EPA

Three Cone: 7.9 sec

Vertical Jump: 29.5”

Broad Jump: 105”

Forty Yard Dash: 4.98 sec; EPA

Bench Reps: 44; EPA

 In summary, Poe scored EPAs in 3 metrics, which Landers views as respectable, but came up a bit short in the most important of all, the 3 Cone Drill. So what can we take away from all this?

While it might add to our optimism to know that Dontari Poe exceeded peer averages on all 6 metrics, or at least on the 3 cone and 4 other categories, the reality is that Dontari Poe is a signficantly larger guy than the average member of his peer group. Put simply, he has about 40 extra pounds to lug around compared to the average DT. Think of it this way, strap an extra 40 pounds on your back, and see if you can run the three cone drill just as fast as you did without the extra weight.

Poe’s bigness couldn’t help but weigh on my thinking. Not satisfied that Poe’s numbers represented an apples to apples comparison, I decided I to look up recent combine scores of DTs, sorted by weight. Poe, at 346,is the 5^th heaviest DT to weigh in, being bested on the scales only by the likes of Ahmad Childress, Terrence Cody and Alameda Ta’amu. Scanning the names of other heavyweight contenders, you’ll also find names like Paul Soliai, Kenrick Ellis, Junior Siavii (oops), Haloti Ngata, BJ Raji, Jerrell Powe, and Phil Taylor. Ah, apples to apples.

Now, within this group, I found that Poe scored impressively well compared to the other apples. For example, Poe’s 3 cone time matched that of BJ Raji’s and exceeded, by .07 seconds, that of Haloti Ngata’s. I took this is a step further and averaged the 3 cone scores of all DTs weighing 330 lbs or more. The result? 8.00 secs. Using my own apples to apples, perhaps simplistic, comparison dataset, I unabashedly conclude that Dontari Poe also scored an EPA in the 3 cone drill for the Nose Tackle position.

That’s now makes 4 EPAs for Poe, for those keeping track.

DD’s Broad Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 100”. Chalk up another EPA for Poe. That’s 5.  

DD’s Vertical Jump Peer Average for 330+ NTs: 25.76”. And there you go, another EPA for Poe, thus giving him a perfect score of 6 among his NT peers, at least by my reckoning.

Given Landers observation that all 5 DTs who attained a perfect score of 6 EPAs in his analysis ended up as 1^st teamers, I can’t help but feel a bit more optimistic about Poe’s future manning the interior of the Chiefs DL? Eventually anyway.

Seeing as how this post has gotten a bit lengthy, I’ll leave discussion of our remaining 2012 draft picks for future installment(s). Stay tuned, I promise you a surprise or two.

That’s my Double Take.

What do you think Addicts? Ready to be a Poe Boy now? 

There seems to be a lot of misconceptions and–dare I say–anger afloat concerning the Chiefs first round draft pick NT Dontari Poe. I think the biggest misconception in currency is that the only reason Dontari Poe got 1^st round attention is because he posted eye-popping combine numbers.  Put differently, because he performed so strongly in Indy, he was immediately labeled a “Workout Warrior,” and as a result, drew upon himself greater scrutiny, was assumed suspect for performing so well, and thus became increasingly relegated by many into the “destined to be a bust” category in typical knee-jerk, mob mentality fashion.

Please allow me to at least set the record straight on this one. Well before Dontari Poe made noise at the NFL Combine, the consensus view held that he was the best Nose Tackle prospect in this draft and almost universally assumed to be a 1st round draft candidate.  In other words, the Combine did not transform Dontari Poe into a 1st round pick. It merely underscored an already popular sentiment that Poe’s physical impressiveness (is that a word?) combined with his elite speed and athleticism all pointed to a well-founded belief that Poe possessed the right tools to be a dominating force in the NFL. In this respect at least, Poe is not unlike a lot of 1^st round prospects: either you believe or you don’t.

For the record, I had Poe as the Chiefs’ 1st round draft pick in the mock draft that I posted way back on March 15^th, well before the Combine.  I’m happy and proud to admit that I’ve been on the Poe bandwagon ever since and fully expect to see him develop into a very scary, disruptive force under the talented guidance of Romeo Crennel and co. Add to that with the fact that Crennel was absolutely gushing about landing Poe, which highly suggests to me that Romeo Crennel is going to make it his personal mission to see that Poe succeeds. To that end, I think we can all agree that Crennel is anything but an idiot when it comes to identifying defensive talent and especially when it comes to coaching defensive linemen. Crennel now has his guy, so I say let’s respect what RAC brings to the party and embrace this pick until given reason to feel otherwise.

Nose Tackle has been the most pressing need for the Chiefs defense ever since they converted to the 3-4 scheme. In my opinion, Poe’s size, strength, and quickness fit very closely to what you look for in a zero technique. I know it’s been said a million times over, but for this position, the ability to occupy multiple blockers and collapse the pocket is way more important than just racking up tackles and sacks. In other words: don’t let Dontari Poe’s lack of stats and lack of post-season recognitions convince you that he won’t be put in a position do exactly what he needs to do to make the Chiefs’ defense once again feared by all.

I also think that Crennel responded to the “lack of production” argument in a very direct and comprehensive way. He pointed out that Poe, while at Memphis, was asked to be a “jack of all trades,” essentially playing/covering all positions on the DL and was thus never really put into a position where he  could be the master of one. This simply confirms what I already believed about Poe’s college football experience. He worked under multiple coaches within an inferior, talent-deprived league without any kind of real support around him or meaningful guidance above him. The situation and opportunity for Poe has now taken a dramatic turn for the better. Have faith.

On a slightly different level, I also find this pick absolutely fascinating and it says a few things to me.

First off, Scott Pioli is not cut entirely of “game tape” cloth when it comes to the NFL draft, as many seem to believe.  On the surface at least, it would seem that in Poe’s case, that “game tape” was barely a consideration (unless position versatility became the deciding factor, but I rather doubt that to be the case). While one can find examples of Poe flashing greatness, there is not really some great body of work one can point to. Again, I have to go back to what I just I said – Pioli and Crennel’s evaluation suggest that they must see in him an Indy racer that, to date, has only been taken out in a quiet cul-de-sac by a student driver.

Secondly, whether you love it or hate it, this selection is anything but boring. It is, echoing the words of Big Matt, a “swing for the fences” approach by Pioli. I don’t see how anyone can’t help but love that. As much as I personally wanted Poe to be the selection, I didn’t actually think it would happen because I figured that despite Poe’s high upside, his apparent lack of college level production would ultimately dump him into Pioli’s “way too risky” bin. This pick now tells me that Pioli indeed has some real gambler in him; this pick, were it to fail, will no doubt put Pioli’s neck square on the chopping block.

Thirdly, Scott Pioli must really respect Romeo Crennel’s knowledge of the game, ability to develop talent and overall input when it comes to player assessment. I just have a hard time seeing this pick as happening without RAC saying, in a very large way, “that’s the one guy I want.” I am sure we’ll probably never know if, given the choice between Kuechly and Poe, which the Chiefs’ would have preferred, but Crennel’s enthusiastic response to this pick seems to suggest that Poe was quite likely the Chiefs’ number one target going in, at least as far as realistically obtainable players go.

Additional reflections on the draft so far:

I was really surprised to see 4 QBs taken in the first round, but I at least understand the reasoning behind those moves.

I was equally surprised to see only 4 WRs in the 1^st round. Back in March, because this position was far and away the most in need for teams around the league, I predicted that 6 would be off the board by the end of the 1^st round. Albeit the fact that 4 1^st rounds WRs is (I believe) more than we’ve seen in recent years, it is a(n upward) trend that I fully expect to see continue for the foreseeable future.

I’m really excited about our 2^nd round prospects. The available day two talent in this year’s draft seems quite good.  Moreover, round 2 seems like a can’t-miss opportunity for the Chiefs to upgrade the roster in a significant way.  Indeed, coming away with any of the following players, in no particular order would put a big smile on my face:

WR Stephen Hill

WR Reuben Randle

WR Mohammed Sanu

C/G Peter Konz

OT/G Cordy Glenn

G Amini Silatulo

CB Janoris Jenkins

TE Dwayne Allen

TE Coby Fleener

That’s my Double Take Addicts.

What’s your take?

The Kansas City Chiefs really wanted Dontai Poe.

According to Josh Looney of KCChiefs.com, the Chiefs passed on two offers to trade back so that they could get their man.

“We felt that if we moved back a little too far, even though we were getting some extra currency in extra picks, we felt that (Dontari) was the right player for us,” Chiefs GM Scott Pioli said. “We didn’t want to move too far away from him and risk the chance of not being able to get him.”

I think this speaks a lot to how much the Chiefs believe Poe can help them. I often criticize Scott Pioli for being too cautions. While most fans view Poe as a risky boom or bust pick, Pioli actually viewed him as safe, so much so that he turned down extra draft picks so that he could select him.

None of this means that Pioli is right of course. Just because he thinks Poe is a safe pick doesn’t mean he won’t bust.

Still, the Chiefs have a pretty good defensive brain trust with Romeo Crennel as their head coach/defensive coordinator. Let’s hope they got it right.