Today is my birthday.

I am content and have few needs, but if the Chiefs are reading this, I do have a wish list.

It is as follows:

Accountability – The franchise got a fresh whiff of this with the axing of Head Coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli, but I would like to make sure the new regime enshrines this principle as a guiding force for the future.

Only two players remain from the 2009 draft class – DE Tyson Jackson and K Ryan Succop – and only one is currently working under a contract that is equitable with his on-the-field contributions. Very few of the Pioli-era free agents remain on the roster. The previous regime very often leaned on the expectation that drafted players who had shown little would develop and underachieving free agents would produce, occupying team resources long after their expiry date.

The first time a player is cut from the 2013 draft class will not be a defeat for the GM John Dorsey and Head Coach Andy Reid administration. It will be the sign of a ship being righted. All draft picks are gambles but accountability in the workplace has to be maintained, otherwise the organization loses its efficiency and its edge.

A #2 Wide Receiver – Be it Jonathan Baldwin, Dexter McCluster, Junior Hemingway or some guy whose name we don’t even know. This is something that team has not had since Trent Green laced up in red.

Leadership – Was sorely lacking on the field last year, and it was the most infuriating aspect of the lost 2012 season. The Chiefs’ talented defense crumbled when the tide appeared to be turning against the team.  The mistake-prone offense seemed to pity itself by the second quarter. This is unacceptable, and must be rooted out.

Hard Knocks – I know it’s probably bad for the team and the Chiefs have had it before, but man is it a great show and a joy for all of us obsessive fans. Word is that Cincinnati has nailed it down again, but a boy can dream.

A Quarterback Drafted in the First Round – I’m not even sure if I care if he is a good player at this point. Drafting a quarterback high displays an aggressive approach towards the future and builds hope. Recent history also shows that it is the way a franchise wins championships. I wasn’t alive the last time the Chiefs drafted a QB in the first round and the last time a QB drafted by the team won a game for them, it was the strike year and I had just been born.

More Rob Riggle – The comedian and Kansas City native has done a great job getting the team in the national spotlight and is hilarious to boot. I want more. Invite Paul Rudd and Jason Sudeikis too.

A Post-Season Win – Showing up to the dance is no longer a suitable outcome in and of its self. This year will mark the 20^th anniversary of the Chiefs’ last playoff victory. Let’s make sure that record never reaches drinking age.

Here we stand at the edge of the void.

The last Chiefs OTA’s are now in the books and there is nothing coming up in the NFL league schedule for the next seven (yes, seven) weeks until training camp begins.

In case it hasn’t donned on you yet, that is a long time. With nothing happening and a dearth of real Chiefs stuff to analyze we’re all going to have to refocus our attention on our empty lives, read books, talk to our loved ones, I dunno, whatever desperate people do.

It just so happens that this particular break also comes right as the third season of Game of Thrones is coming to an end because the Gods are evidently especially cruel this year (if you watch Game of Thrones, you know this is true).

So, here are my humble suggestions for how you can enjoy life and still get a little Chiefs fever going.

1.) Read Arrowhead Addict religiously. I’m not saying we’re always going to have as much commentary and news as other parts of the year (I really painted myself into a corner by pledging not to make predictions), but we’re still here to help you. Think of us as your support group … or your enablers.

2.) Feel vindicated by this article about a poll someone dug up from 2009 showing that more ESPN voters preferred to have Matt Cassel running their offense than Aaron Rodgers. Granted, Kansas was the only state that preferred Cassel over everyone, including Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan, but I’m betting a lot of you are from Missouri anyway, so … feel good. The Chiefs weren’t the only morons who liked Cassel in 2009.

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3.) Watch this video repeatedly. It covers the Chiefs offseason additions and has some sort of rad filter over footage of RB Jamaal Charles running all over the field. You may want to skip over some of the sappy slo-mo intro upon later viewings.

4.) I also recommend the Amateur Hour Podcast, which gets some good guests to talk Chiefs and other KC sports over a few beers. Makes me feel like home. (Note: explicit language)

5.) You’ll also find some good encouragement in these highlights of QB Alex Smith that were made, apparently, by a 49ers fan. Not everyone thinks he’s overrated.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

6.) Miss that familiar feeling of crushed expectations you get from the Chiefs? Add in 100-degree heat and go see yourself a Royals game over at Kauffman.

7.) Implore all Chiefs players on social media to use car services and taxis. All NFL players seem to do this time of year is drive drunk and beat up strippers.

8.) In a similar vein, buy a Raiders player a drink. A strong one. For the good of the Chiefs.

9.) Prepare plans and supplies to strategically place banana peels around Peyton Manning’s work and home. You know … in case he gets hungry.

10.) Let your family know they have exactly seven Sundays to have meaningful conversations and meals that don’t include dip with you. Then it’s all over, hopefully until February.

Help your fellow addicts out adding more suggested activities in the comments section and tell us how you’re going to spending your seven weeks of misery!

I am excited, there’s no mistaking it.

But, I do think it is important to remember that every NFL fan thinks their team will be a world-beater at this point of the offseason (except maybe in Jacksonville). Every team has added pieces and made adjustments. We’ve caught a glimpse of each team playing like titans against air and practice-squad tryouts in no pads.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

But, after spending two consecutive offseasons seeing every rational reason to expect the Chiefs to be a playoff team, I am boycotting making any type of prediction this year, and, indeed, maybe ever.

As Rob Riggle says, “Never pick with your heart, especially if you’re from Kansas City.” Towards the tail end of the 2012 season, even my heart wouldn’t predict a win out of our dumpster fire team.

But my prediction ban isn’t only about twice-bitten-thrice-shyness, it’s about understanding what is really important in this league: wins. Pure and simple. The Chiefs have a boatload of Pro Bowlers and a mastermind coach (finally). But, I will say nothing about this team’s future successes until it shows me something on the field. Miami Guard Rickie Incognito said it really well when talking to Yahoo! Sports last week.

“Yeah, I have noticed that everyone’s looking through rosy-colored glasses,” Incognito says. “It’s a combination of things: We got more talented. We have our starting quarterback set. Our coaches and coordinators are back for another year. And we’ve got a good foundation here, and we work our asses off.

“But you know what? I definitely need to see it on the field before [talking about it]. I get it from my friends: ‘How are you gonna do this year?’ It’s real easy to say in May, ‘Hey, we’re gonna win the Super Bowl.’ But until you get to training camp and put on the pads and fight through injuries and tough losses and define yourself as a team, you really don’t know how good you are.”

It doesn’t matter that (aptly named) Incognito doesn’t know that the expression is “rose-colored glasses,” he’s right about teams and expectations.

Right now, all we know is that the Chiefs have some good pieces. We have yet to find out if they are a good team. The Chiefs were one of the most talented squads last year, but players on both sides of the ball would maddeningly crumble late in games. I understand that the team had historically bad coaching in 2012, but it wasn’t a simple matter of misfortune. The Chiefs were a bad team last year.

And so I want to hope. Even moves that I’m not 100 percent on board for like the trade for QB Alex Smith have made the Chiefs a better, more complete group. Like many of you, I spend an unhealthy amount of time scouring the glowing reports from OTA’s and watching highlights. I’ve seen so much reason for hope that I can already taste the playoff wins.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

“But it’s an illusion!” I yell at myself periodically. Yes, we have a few highlights, but if you really want an impressive reel, you should make a “The NFL vs. The Chiefs 2012” compilation. Now that would be some good football. Smith is efficient but he is still going to throw interceptions this year. The Chiefs’ much-improved defense will still concede touchdowns. The team will lose games.

And so I’m done predicting. I actually wrote a post last year entitled “Hillis Could End Up Being The Chiefs’ Most Important 2011 Signing” and I’m sure that I will inevitably write far more nonsense before this season begins, but I pledge that I will not make any guesses about the team’s on-the-field success until they actually show me something on the field.

Potential does not win games. Grit, physicality, smarts, preparedness and a little bit of luck will get you through the day.

One thing is for darn sure, however. I cannot wait to see what this group has got.

We are smack in the middle of the offseason dead zone and I know we’re all going to be writing a lot of sentences like: “the complex LT Branden Albert situation” or “the team’s dealings with Albert have yet to play out” etc., etc.

Sam Mellinger summed it up pretty well:

This is an inherently combustible situation — a good player who wants to be paid like a great one, working on a one-year contract on the other side of the line from a younger and better player who was just the first overall draft pick. If Albert was uneasy before, now he will be playing with his obvious replacement. If nothing changes, a season like this will be one filled with land mines.

I’m going to make this much easier.

Albert, take $6 million a year or we’re letting you walk.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t get me wrong, I think Albert is a good player and I’m also not as offended as most fans by his “attitude” – i.e. negotiating hard by sitting out of one voluntary camp. I also think that we may have the best set of bookend tackles in the league this year.

Even so, unless the Chiefs have far and away the world’s best offensive line in 2013 and it’s clear that it will be seriously harmed if Albert is not a part of it in 2014, it is simply not worth it to overpay for him.

Let’s be clear about what Albert is for us long-term – a right tackle. It’s a luxury that we have both Albert, an experienced above average left tackle, and 1^st-round pick Eric Fisher, a versatile, team-first guy that is willing to play right tackle this year. But, beyond this season, we really need to put guys in the positions where they can fully realize their potential. Fisher is a left tackle; that’s what he excelled at in college, that’s what we drafted him to be.

So far, Albert has shown no particular interest in being a right tackle, and I imagine that if push came to shove he would prefer to make left tackle money somewhere else than play for the Chiefs. Left tackles get paid significantly more in this league and that’s the position he wants to play. I don’t blame him for wanting out after this season.

Another variable in all of this is that we’re not entirely sure Albert would play right tackle well once Fisher takes over on the left side. Still, if we want to keep him, we have to offer him a right tackle contract – a generous one, granted – and call it good.

In the thick of the haggling between the Chiefs and the Dolphins over possibly trading Albert came a report that Miami was willing to offer Albert the contract he wanted as a part of the deal – a six-year, $53.4 million extension similar to what Texans LT Duane Brown got. That averages to $8.9 million a year, just a bit less than the franchise tag number and would make him the fourth-highest paid player on the team after OLB Tamba Hali, WR Dwayne Bowe and DE Tyson Jackson (if he comes back with that salary in 2014, a questionable prospect).

Simply put, a smart organization doesn’t lock up that kind of money in an RT. With that kind of contract, the Chiefs would be paying out $13 million to $14 million a year on our three tackles. To put that number in perspective, the Chiefs spent $5,873,835 on the contacts of all six of the team’s interior offensive linemen. Only six teams spent more than $12 million on their tackles last year – Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Miami, Washington and Tennessee. Obviously this wasn’t the only factor, but you will notice that only two of those teams had a winning record last year. The two teams in the Super Bowl each had less than $7 million locked up in the tackle position.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

So, if Albert wants to stay and be the one of the best-paid right tackles in football, great. He made $4,192,500 last year, so $6 million is a 43% percent pay increase. Not too bad. But, the Chiefs should not offer a dollar more. This saves us more than$3 million this year and we can use that to bring in another good player or two at a different position. Our new #2 WR Donnie Avery is averaging less than $3 million a year. So is NT Dontari Poe, WR Dexter McCluster and OLB Justin Houston

If Albert thinks he can get more on the open market, the Chiefs should allow him to give it a shot. If he does get more, then that contract offer will guarantee that the Chiefs will get at least a 4^th-round, but probably a 3^rd-round compensatory pick for him, which is essentially all the team would have gotten for him in the trade to Miami.

Either way, everyone wins.

I think we’re all still trying to wrap our heads around the new regime’s first draft and its apparent strategy moving forward.

While most fans have been hoping to see the team tick as many need boxes as possible in the course of the three days at Radio City Music hall, that doesn’t appear to be the way that Chiefs GM John Dorsey does things. It seems that Dorsey views free agency as a means to fill holes, while the Draft serves to add talent, regardless of position.

The team selected SEC players with its compensatory 3^rd-rounder, its 4^th and its 5^th-round pick but the rest of players it took were from relatively small programs. 1^st overall pick OT Eric Fisher was the first player from the MAC selected that high in the conference’s history. DE/OLB Mike Catapano became the first Princeton player drafted in 12 years. NFL fans worldwide suddenly learned that there is a University of California … in Pennsylvania … after Kansas City picked C Eric Kush in the 6^th round.

Chiefs fans who were furiously googling these guys likely found very little – often not even a photograph. On one hand, the obscurity of these names showed that Dorsey and Chiefs HC Andy Reid have been doing their homework and were digging for diamonds in the rough. On the other hand, one wondered whether these guys were even on any other team’s draft boards.

I think it shows that the new regime is realistic about what it is going to get from the Draft. This is a team that counts on getting prospects – not players – from the Draft. With virtually all the team’s needs filled through free agency, late April was a time to pick up some young, unfinished products. The two big knocks against small school players is that they are difficult to evaluate due to the quality of the opponents they faced on tape and they are also expected to have a longer, tougher transition to the NFL.

But, for Fisher, Kush, Catapano, and TE Travis Kelce, that won’t be a problem, they won’t be expected to make major contributions this year. With the exception of Fisher, who will likely end up as the team’s full-time right tackle this year, the other small school guys have a line of veterans ahead of them.

Paul Frederiksen-USA TODAY Sports

However, it would be a mistake to view these guys as purely depth players. One of the biggest blind spots in Draft coverage is that commentators tend to only look at each team’s current needs and evaluate their draft on how those picks fit with what the team will need in the coming season. The reality is that actual front offices are looking much further to the 2014 and 2015 seasons – especially regimes in their first year or with solid job security.

Indeed, one of the over-looked aspects of the Chiefs’ draft was not how they added pieces for this season, but rather how it shows they are building the team for 2014.

Take a quick look at the list of Chiefs starters whose contracts will be up in the next two years and you’ll see what I mean. The notables include (presumed starters in italics):

Free Agents in 2014:

WR Dexter McCluster (slot)

TE Tony Moeaki

S Kendrick Lewis

G Jon Asamoah

G Geoff Schwartz

RB Shaun Draughn (3^rd down back)

Free Agents in 2015:

C Rodney Hudson

FB Anthony Sherman

WR Jonathan Baldwin

DE Allen Bailey

RB Nate Eachus

QB Alex Smith

Looking at this list and projecting that most of the 2013 draft class will sit this year now makes sense. All three of the Chiefs’ starting interior O-linemen are up for free agency in the next two years and the only one who we have under contract until 2015 is Hudson, who is a bit of a question mark coming off of a broken leg. In this situation, it makes perfect sense to take a high-upside center from a small school knowing that he may have to step in at one of those three interior roles in the next two years.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Similarly, despite the fact that the Chiefs already had two good blocking/pass-catching tight ends in Moeaki and Anthony Fasano, it makes perfect sense to draft Kelce knowing that Moeaki is injury-prone and in a contract year. Kelce may not see the field this year, but his presence on the roster gives the team options at TE next year when Moeaki will be looking at the door. Depending on how Moeaki plays and his health holds up, he may be disposable or he may be valuable, but the team will have a better bargaining hand with Fasano locked up long-term and a young, dynamic tight end in the wings who will be playing on a cheap, multi-year contract.

The same goes for the running back position behind RB Jamaal Charles. Third-round pick Knile Davis was the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiefs draft. He’s been banged up and last put up good tape in 2011. Spending a year in the meeting rooms as the #4 RB will hopefully allow him to heal up and be ready to take up the reins as the contracts for the two guys ahead of him come to an end.

Both De’Quan Menzie (who spent his rookie season on IR) and 5^th-round pick Sanders Commings project as CB/S hybrids and both have the big bodies and hard-hitting style to make them potential replacements for Lewis, who is oft-injured and also in a contract year.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I should say that I don’t necessarily expect these draft picks to replace all of the incumbents, but you have to admire the cleverness and forethought that Dorsey brings to this front office. No matter what happens this season, he has already set up the team to have flexibility and depth at positions where it will potentially be vulnerable after the next round of free agency.

The one big looming 2015 free agent on that list is obviously Smith and anyone’s guess is as good as mine what the team’s opinion of him will be when February 2015 rolls around. He may have just won us a championship; he may have proven to be garbage without the mentorship of 49ers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

I also have absolutely no idea what to expect out of UDFA QB Tyler Bray. He may turn into something, he may turn into nothing. What I do know is that the team wagered absolutely nothing on him so even if his ceiling is that of an average backup, it will have been a sound move.

One way or the other, given that Smith is 29, don’t be surprised to see a quarterback taken high in next year’s draft regardless of how he plays in 2013. His contract will be up the following year and this is just how Dorsey rolls.

In a strange way, this past draft – one of the most boring in recent memory – was the most interesting.

Four days ago, the new tandem of Head Coach Andy Reid and General Manager John Dorsey practically had a tabula rasa in the eyes of Chiefs fans. We could speculate on how they would change the franchise based on past decisions on different clubs. But, even there, they were not the sole decision-makers. This offseason is the first real peephole into how they will run this team for however long they are allowed to do so.

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The main theme? When Dorsey says “best player available” he means best player available, regardless of position or the grades of other teams. The first pick that illustrated this was the first pick of the 2013 Draft.

We may never know how the trade negotiations between Dorsey and Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland went (although I’d like to think it was similar in tenor to the way that the Amateur Hour Podcast role-played it out), but we know those talks did not end in a trade of LT Brandon Albert to Miami. For the past three months, the greatest certainty in our predictions of what the Chiefs would do at 1^st overall hinged on Albert’s fate.

Our good-but-not-great tackle was not traded by the time the Chiefs were required to turn in their card and select their first player. Nonetheless, the team picked another left tackle in Eric Fisher. Value is value in Dorsey’s eyes, and even without having moved the team’s current LT, he wanted to make the most of that pick and grabbed the guy who he felt was the best prospect in this Draft.

Then, after a very long wait for those who were watching the whole proceedings unfold, the Chiefs selected a tight end. This, also, was clearly not a need-driven pick. While he may not have sparkled quite as much since his magical 2010 season, TE Tony Moeaki, who was on IR throughout 2011, still has the potential to be a productive two-way TE in this league. Similarly, the new regime quickly signed TE Anthony Fasano in free agency who is similarly one of the best block-and-catch tight ends.

So, why pick TE Travis Kelce, who fits the same mold, at the top of the 3^rd round? Well, obviously, Dorsey would not have used his second pick in the Draft on him unless he thought Kelce could be as good or better than what we already have on the team. The fact is that – paired with decent quarterbacks or no – Moeaki has produced very little outside of that 2010 season. More to the point, Dorsey is looking for value wherever he finds it. Kelce was high on his board and still available, so he took him, no questions asked.

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

What followed was probably the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiefs 2013 draft: RB Knile Davis. In a draft that was thick with running backs in the mid rounds, Davis was expected by many to be an undrafted free agent. But, on the other hand, he fits Reid’s system perfectly. Line up the tape of Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and the former Razorback Davis and  you see plenty of similarities. Just like with McCoy, the commentating class are questioning Davis’ top end speed, and his ability to get it done with his small frame.

But, whether you like it or not, these are the kinds of guys that Coach Reid covets. He is looking for slightly undersized quick guys with vision to for the hole. McCoy has become a stud in this league and he was picked in the middle of the second round. Davis, who clocked in with a 4.37 40 time at the combine, got grabbed at the bottom of the 3^rd. I’m not saying that he will be as good as McCoy, but I don’t think this pick was as surprising as many made it out to be. He is consistent with the model of an Andy Reid running back, and he may have been the only pure Reid guy in this draft.

After picking three players that landed in currently crowded position groups, the new regime then ticked a need by selecting Alabama LB Nico Johnson at the top of the 4^th round. Initially, I wasn’t crazy about this pick. Basically all evaluations described him as a purely run-stuffing two-down linebacker who might be stout in the early downs but would be a liability in coverage. Immediately , this reminded me of the late Jovan Belcher, whose murderous departure from both life and team punctuated the Chiefs’ worst season in recent memory.

That tragic mess aside, we were already talking this time last year about the need to replace him or at least give him significant competition as we needed a guy able to chase down tight ends and wide receivers on 1^st and 2^nd down and he was particularly exposed in those situations. Nico Johnson doesn’t give us much more in that department.

However, we also have a new defensive coordinator and scheme. We are yet to see how DC Bob Sutton plans to use Nico and the rest of the defense, so it is possible that by getting the best “thumper” LB in the draft, the Chiefs put the last piece in place.

Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

In a similar vein, the choice of CB Sanders Commings in the 5^th round seemed strange, but after looking at his highlight tape, it became quickly clear that the Chiefs likely viewed him as more of a safety prospect than a CB that would add to our full stable of cornerbacks. Commings is a big, fast and physical guy who didn’t show the skills to be one of the top-rated cornerbacks, but he definitely has the talent to step in the place of the Chiefs’ oft-injured FS Kendrick Lewis.

Either way, I think there will now be some genuine competition in the defensive backfield and the same way that Reid says he likes to put his best five offensive linemen on the field, I think we will see the best five DB’s on the field in nickel situations, which could lead to some really interesting combinations.

Also, having five very good D-backs allows you to take your run-stuffing ILB off the field … a plan seems to be emerging here.

The last three picks in rounds 6 and 7 I believe have to be viewed as special teamers and practice squad guys until proven otherwise. Generally, the selection of a fullback screams “special teams stud” – KSU fans please let me know if I am wrong in this particular instance.

So, what do we take from this? Well, we had already gotten a hint of this from free agency. Dorsey does not want this team to be a leaky ship on paper. There will be no holes and any young prospect coming in will have to compete and will be chosen purely on their talent. They will not be drafted and expected to fill some void that the team left open like with WR Jon Baldwin. I don’t know if this strategy will work, but the man has credibility coming from the Green Bay Packers.

For four years we had all been adjusting to the Patriots Way, whatever the hell that meant, but now we are starting to get a glimpse of this new identity that Dorsey and Reid will be imprinting upon our Kansas City squad.

What do you think, Addicts? Tired of imported philosophies, or do you think this one will work?

We are now two days out from the Chiefs’ 1^st-round pick being announced at Radio City Music Hall.

In a normal year, there would be very little suspense at this point for us fans. We’d already be talking about the contract details of the team’s assumed new player and what will happen later in the draft. But, as we all know, this is a strange year and a strange draft class. And, the LT Brandon Albert ball is still in the air.

So, here are the probabilities for what I think is going to happen. Feel free to chime in with your own.

1.) Will Albert be traded before the Draft officially begins?

80% Yes, 20% No.

If I’m the Chiefs, I want to make sure this deal gets done before I send my envelope to the podium. The Dolphins seem dead-set on nailing an LT in this draft, but the 2^nd-rounder they would send to the Chiefs for the trade could also potentially be used by them to trade up into the top seven to pick one of the top LT prospects. They may even prefer this option because they’d have the guy under contract for four years, he’ll be cheaper and younger, and can grow with their new quarterback.

Still, given that the talks have gotten this deep, it looks like the Chiefs simply need to act on it – with compensation perhaps a bit lower than they expect. Trading Albert essentially locks the Chiefs into taking one of the two LT prospects Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher and it’s unlikely they will be able to sign Albert to a long-term deal and trade him for much value if they both keep him this year and draft his replacement. I think they have considerable incentives to seal the deal before lights hit the stage in New York.

2.) Who will the Chiefs pick?

50% Luke Joeckel, 30% Eric Fisher, 12% OLB Dion Jordan, 5% DT Shariff Floyd, 3% DT Star Lotulelei

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Again, the Albert trade looks like all but a done deal, but getting a game-changer like Jordan certainly has to give them pause. However, if Albert is traded (again, an 80% probability IMHO), then they’re taking Fisher or Joeckel. Other possibilities if he stays are Floyd and Lotulelei, which would add bulk and versatility to the D-line.

3.) When do the Chiefs pick their first ILB?

50% 3^rd round, 20% 4^th round, 15% 5th round, 10% 2nd round, 5% no ILB taken this year

Even though it is the most conspicuous hole on the roster, I think the sweet spot for drafting ILB’s this year is the 3^rd round and it is a deep draft at that position. I don’t think GM John Dorsey is the kind of guy to spring for need if we get a 2^nd rounder by trading Albert, or trading up into the 2^nd round for a guy unless Alec Ogletree or Manti Te’o fall far. On the other hand, the team doesn’t currently have a 2^nd rounder, but it does have two picks in the third. I think they’ll go for the value guy on their list in the mid-rounds. On the other hand, they brought in two journeymen ILB’s for offseason workouts and it’s not a premiere position. They may think that they can cover themselves with what they have and take value picks in other places.

4.) How many offensive skill players will the Chiefs draft?

50% three, 20% four, 20% two, 10% one

This is a bit of a wild guess, because everything we know about Dorsey tells us that he likes to draft purely for value. Still, the offense was the Achilles’ heel of this team for the last two seasons and the side of the football that requires the greatest improvement. But: the new regime has already taken the most important step forward in improving the quarterback position, We also locked up our #1 WR in Dwayne Bowe and signed a #2 in Donnie Avery. We’re told that HC Andy Reid likes WR Dexter McCluster in a slot role and WR Jon Baldwin is still developing… we hope. That doesn’t leave a lot of spots for draft picks unless you plan on cutting them or putting them on the practice squad when the season begins.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

At running back, we have Jamaal Charles, Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray. The latter two are pickups from the previous regime and I would be surprised if Dorsey didn’t pick up a developmental RB at some point in the draft. It would also stand to reason for them to grab a young QB and TE at some point, but I would be surprised if they take more than one of each.

5.) When, if ever will the Chiefs take a QB?

50% 5^th round or later, 30% not this year, 20% 3^rd or 4^th round

The behavior of both this regime and the other NFL front offices implies that the league generally views this as not being the year to pick up a quarterback. In a sense, the Chiefs have already used their 2^nd-round pick on QB Alex Smith and they signed his backup to a generous contract. I don’t expect them to draft anyone that will provide immediate competition to either of them. That said, if a guy like Matt Barkley falls into the 4^th, I’d be surprised if the Chiefs passed on him altogether.

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

So what do you say? How do you like my odds?

For the last two years, in addition to writing a weekly column for Arrowhead Addict, I have also been representing the Nation as the official Kansas City Chiefs Superfan for the ESPN Football Today podcast. My role and importance as a Superfan fluctuated between the show’s changing lineup of hosts, but I always found it to be a fun exercise to get my two cents discussed in a wider forum.

Nonetheless, by far the most interesting and exciting event for us 32 Superfans was not getting our nonsense reactions to the latest games read throughout the season, but the three-round mock draft we took upon ourselves to act out every year.

This was not some ordinary mock draft. We, the designated Superfans, chosen through a lengthy application process, each year went through a live action draft complete with trades and arguments with our fictitious league commissioner. This year, I discarded my oversized suit jackets and thick-rimmed glasses for a sour expression and a pinnipedal cohort.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, I tried to think like the new regime and get the best I could out of our draft capital while following what seems to be their game plan. Here’s how it went down:

Pre-Draft

Like every Chiefs fan on the planet, I was looking to trade down. If I had the chance to stay within the top 5-6, I was pretty much willing to take any offer as there would definitely be a player there that I could take and I really wanted to recoup some mid-round picks. My second priority was – if I wasn’t going to land a major trade-down – to flip LT Brandon Albert for a 2^nd and change.

I got plenty of offers to move up to #1 overall, but they all came from teams too far away for my liking. Then, the Buccaneers made a crazy trade to move up from #13 to Jacksonville’s spot at #2 in exchange for their 2014 1^st and a late 2013 pick. The Jaguars must have been desperate to look to the future and gaining as much talent as they can next year because the trade was for far less than the draft value chart would call for. It also is a bit of an indictment of the talent at the top of this year’s class. Either way, I knew a mark when I saw one and told the Bucs Superfan/GM that I had been getting offers for the #1 spot and I wasn’t sure who those teams were going for, but if he wanted to get his guy – and clearly he did – all he had to do was part with a 3^rd-rounder to move all the way to the top.

In the end, that was too rich for his blood, but I took a 4^th off of him in the end and moved down to #2 overall. I then turned my attention to Albert. Like the real Chiefs, I was shopping him loud and hard. A couple of teams inquired, but I wanted to get a deal done before I had to actually make my pick. In the end, I took the Raven’s 2^nd-round (#62) and 5^th-round (#165) picks for our franchised left tackle. It would have been nice to get a higher 2^nd, but this still gave the team plenty of capital.

At this point, through compensatory picks and trades, my Chiefs team had regained a 2^nd and had two picks in rounds 3, 4, 5 and 6. But, that was to be short-lived.

We didn’t fully lay down the rules this year, and several of the teams complained that it made things too complicated to trade current players. I protested. The Philadelphia Superfan/GM then pointed out that Baltimore doesn’t have near enough space to pick up Albert’s contract in the first place and, while one could assume they would negotiate a cap-friendly long-term deal with him post-trade, that was just a bridge too far. The trade was voided.

In fact, only 12 teams have the cap space to be able to absorb Albert’s contract at the moment according to (the fabulous follow) the Film Room on Twitter. Those teams are: the Eagles, the Bills, the Pats, the Jags, the Cards, the Colts, the Jets, the Packers, the Bengals, the Browns, and the Bucs. All other teams would have to cut players to make space.

Unfortunately, the drama over the Albert trade erupted after I had already drafted his replacement – Luke Joeckel – 2^nd overall. Still, if the Chiefs can trade down and still get either Jockel or Fisher, they should count themselves lucky regardless of what happens with Albert.

Feb 23, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Texas A

Thus, the Nick-led Chiefs would forego any picks in the 2^nd round and it would next come around to us at pick #63.

Here’s how rounds 1 & 2 panned out overall.

Round 1

1 Tampa Bay via Kansas City via Jacksonville – CB Dee Milliner

2 Kansas City via Tampa Bay via Jacksonville – OT Luke Joeckel

3 Oakland – OT Eric Fisher

4 Philadelphia – OLB Dion Jordan

5 Detroit – DE Ezekiel Ansah

6 Cleveland – OLB Jarvis Jones

7 Arizona – OG Chance Warmack

8 San Diego via Buffalo – OT Lane Johnson

9 New York Jets – DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo

10 Tennessee – DT Shariff Floyd

11 Buffalo via San Diego – QB Geno Smith

12 Miami – CB Xavier Rhodes

13 Jacksonville via Tampa Bay – WR Tavon Austin

14 Carolina – DT Sheldon Richardson

15 Cincinnati via New Orleans – S Kenny Vaccaro

16 St. Louis – DT Star Lotulelei (steal of the day)

17 Pittsburg – OG John Cooper

18 Dallas – DT Sylvester Williams

19 New York Giants – ILB Alec Ogletree

20 Chicago – DE Damontre Moore

21 New Orleans via Cincinnati – DT Jesse Williams

22 St. Louis via Washington – WR Keenan Allen

23 San Francisco via Minnesota – DE Margus Hunt

24 Indianapolis – WR DeAndre Hopkins

25 Minnesota via Seattle – DE Datone Jones

26 Green Bay – S Matt Elam

27 Buffalo via Houston – WR Cordarrelle Patterson

28 Denver – DE Bjoern Werner (2^nd steal of the day)

29 New England – CD Desmond Trufant

30 Atlanta – CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson

31 San Francisco – DT John Jenkins

32 Baltimore – ILB Manti Te’o

Round 2

33 Jacksonville – OT D.J. Fluker

34 Arizona via Kansas City through San Francisco and Minnesota – QB E.J. Manuel

35 Philadelphia – S Eric Reid

36 Detroit – LB Arthur Brown

37 Cincinnati via Oakland – RB Eddy Lacy

38 Minnesota via Arizona – Quinton Patton

39 New York Jets – TE Tyler Eifert

40 Tennessee – DE Tank Carradine

41 Houston – WR Justin Hunter

42 Miami – OT Menelik Watson

43 Tampa Bay –  CB D.J. Hayden

44 Carolina – OT Reid Fragel

45 San Diego – OG Justin Pugh

46 St. Louis – S Jonathan Cyprien (STL was killin’ it)

47 Dallas – OG Larry Warford

48 Houston via Pittsburg – MLB Kevin Minter

49 New York Giants – CB Jonathan Banks

50 Baltimore via Chicago – S D.J. Swearinger

51 Washington – CB Jamar Taylor

52 Minnesota – WR Aaron Dobson

53 New Orleans via Cincinnati – OT Terron Armstead

54 Miami – DE Alex Okafor

55 Green Bay – DT Kawaan Short

56 Seattle – TE Zach Ertz

57 Pittsburg via Houston – DT John Hankins

58 Denver – WR Robert Woods

59 New England – WR Terrence Williams

60 Atlanta – DE Sam Montgomery

61 Tampa Bay via San Francisco – QB Ryan Nassib

62 Chicago via Baltimore – OT/OG Dallas Thomas

Sitting at the top of the 3^rd round, I had a lot of choices and some good players had fallen. Obviously, ILB is the Chiefs only glaring hole, but it is also a position where you can find some good players later in the draft. When it comes to premiere positions where you want to load up on talent, I think pass rusher is the next place the Chiefs should add a body. With Andy Studebaker (who was no world-beater) gone, can you name the team’s #3 outside linebacker? Didn’t think so.

Mike Mayock’s 2^nd-rated 3-4 outside linebacker is a guy probably few of you have heard of – not Barkevious Mingo, nope, he put Jamie Collins above him, right after Dion Jordon. Few know Jamie Collins because he was playing in the witness protection program down in Southern Mississippi, a team that didn’t win a single game in 2012. But, if you look at Collins’ tape, he definitely stands out as a high-motor, highly skilled guy with the speed to go all over the field as basically the only bright spot on that defense.

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We need a guy to rotate and develop with OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston because currently we have no depth and Tamba turns the big 30 this year. So, I grabbed Collins, who I think is a steal at that spot.

Later in the round, I was still able to get my ILB target. I know there are lots of Arthur Brown fans on this site, but Oregon’s Kiko Alonso looks to me like Manti Te’o, just underrated rather than overrated and with a real, live girlfriend.

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This is how the 3^rd round went overall:

Round 3

63 Kansas City – OLB Jamie Collins

64 Jacksonville – CB Darius Slay

65 Detroit – OT Kyle Long

66 Oakland – CB David Amerson

67 Philadelphia – DE William Ghoston

68 Cleveland – S Shawn Williams

69 Arizona – C/G Travis Frederick

70 Tennessee – CB Jordan Poyer

71 Buffalo – TE Gavin Escobar

72 New York Jets – S Tony Jefferson

73 San Francisco via Tampa Bay – TE Travis Kelce

74 Minnesota via San Francisco – DT Brandon Williams

75 Cincinnati via New Orleans – OLB Sio Moore

76 Baltimore via San Diego – -OT Luke Marquardt

77 Miami – CB Robert Alford

78 St. Louis – RB Marcus Lattimore

79 Pittsburg – RB Giovanni Bernard

80 Chicago via Dallas – LB Khaseem Greene

81 New York Giants – OLB Corey Lemonier

82 Miami – C Barrett Jones

83 Minnesota – S Phillip Thomas

84 New Orleans via Cincinnati – OLB Trevardo Williams

85 New York Jets via Washington – RB Jonathan Franklin

86 Indianapolis – OL Brian Schwenke

87 Seattle – WR Da’Rick Rogers

88 Green Bay – RB Montee Ball

89 Houston – QB Tyler Wilson

90 Denver – RB Le’Veon Bell

91 New England – WR Ryan Swope

92 Atlanta – TE Vance McDonald

93 San Francisco – RB Mike Millislee

94 San Diego via Baltimore – CB Leon Sandcastle … err McFadden

95 Houston – WR Markus Wheaton

96 Kansas City – ILB Kiko Alonso

97 Tennessee – WR Steadman Bailey

To see the full spreadsheet, plus explanations for the picks from the other Superfans, click here.

So what do you think, Addicts? Did I do the right thing? Who would you have picked?

I have stepped off.

There, I said it.

It’s been quite a ride, one that involved personally providing about 1/3 of this video’s total views. I am also the ESPN Football Today Podcast’s designated Chiefs SuperFan, and when we SuperFans pretended to be GM’s and did our own mock draft, I of course rushed to the (totally metaphorical in this case) podium and took Geno Smith 1^st overall.

That same day it was announced that the Chiefs had agreed to the trade for Alex Smith in principle, and I reacted pretty much like this.

But, a lot then changed over the past few weeks.

First, the Chiefs went out and had themselves one heck of a free agency. The team was able to retain the services of our three most important free agents, picked up some solid additional pieces and everyone they let go was replaced. RT Eric Winston who was this year’s shocking cut, is still on the market. So, as questionable as that decision seemed at the time, apparently the NFL is seeing something we don’t.

In the end, my greatest fear with the Alex Smith trade was that this new regime saw our loaded roster and thought, “We can probably win games with these guys plus a game manager.” Like many others, nightmares of Matt Cassel were dancing in my head.

I also just wanted this team to draft a damn quarterback in the first round for once come hell or high water. That is something this team has never done since I have been alive, and during my 25 years on this Earth only two quarterbacks drafted by the team have started a game for the Chiefs – Doug Hudson and Brodie Croyle (spoiler: both sucked).

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But, at some point, once the kneejerk frustration wore off, I realized I was projecting all of my hopes and dreams onto Geno and what he might become, but wasn’t really looking at it all in the proper context.

First off, I don’t really watch college football. I went to a university without a football program and I only really have time to be irrationally obsessed with one team in one league at a time. From what I understand, however, most of the conferences are heavily lopsided and if you truly are a 1^st-round NFL quarterback, you should dominate the collegiate competition. Geno didn’t do that and had several duds in his senior year.

Secondly, when determining a player’s worth, it’s about more than what your team wants. Value is determined by the market, and the market is determined by buyers and sellers.

When you’re watching the stock market, you don’t want to follow the chatter. Studies have actually shown that statistically you are better off doing a fire sale on any stock Mad Money’s Jim Kramer tells you to buy.

Instead, investors and market watchers are following the “smart money.” Don’t listen to the talking heads, watch the people at the top whose livelihoods depend on being right about this stuff and who are consistently the best at it. In this case, we have the actual NFL teams and their armies of scouts to observe. If you see how they behave, you get a good idea about what the smart people think about this year’s market for quarterbacks.

So far, the consensus seems to be that another team’s backup is better than any of the incoming rookies. While the Chiefs moved first, every other QB-needy team has also pounced. The Raiders snagged Matt Flynn, the Cardinals in turn got Carson Palmer. Mike Vick was hurriedly (and expensively) re-signed. The Bills grabbed Kevin Kolb and the Jets took David Garrard. Matt Cassel, who we all know to be of the highest caliber of quarterback, was on the market for just a few hours before signing a new deal with Minnesota to compete with their starter. Heck, even 37-year-old Matt Hasselbeck was out there for less than 24 hours before getting another job.

Of course, many of these QB-hungry teams will likely draft quarterbacks later this month as well, but these moves are still very telling. Most years, veteran quarterbacks sit out on the open market for most of the spring and even summer before getting snagged for backup and compete-to-start positions. Most teams want to at least see how the draft shakes out before going after those guys, because, most years, there are plenty of good QB prospects and teams know that those veteran options will still be there after the picks have been made.

This year, we’ve seen the opposite market reaction. There has been a total run on veteran signal-callers BEFORE the draft, which means that QB-needy teams see little value in the draft at that position and are trying to fill their holes now with little faith that they are going to get a guy who would have the potential to compete for a starting position this year.

This, coupled with the fact that every talent evaluator I respect says there are no 1^st-round quarterbacks this year, tells you a lot about Geno’s value as a prospect and why it would be foolhardy to take him at 1^st overall.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The second big reason I have moved on from my Geno obsession is that I have finally come around to the guys that Dorsey and Reid have added in Alex Smith and Chase Daniel. I am very excited to see what Reid can do with Smith, who is the type of quarterback that Reid’s offense is meant for (unlike McNabb and Vick). Meanwhile, I think Daniel is a good grab for a backup especially because he is young and has a lot of upside.

If you need more convincing on Smith, I suggest reading this and this by our pals over at Arrowhead Pride. If you’re still not convinced, please proceed to blast me in the comments section as usual.

Yes, last week I did tell you that it would make sense to trade Brandon Albert. That doesn’t meant necessarily mean that I think we should do it.

I’m basically willing to go either way on Albert because I accept my own ignorance on the two great unknowns to the whole conversation: 1.) What Albert is asking in the contract negotiations and 2.) What his long-term health looks like in the opinions of the team doctors. We know his play on the field has been good, but the two factors mentioned above will determine whether he will play for the Chiefs in 2014.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Assuming Albert has a clean bill of health and can be brought back into the fold without breaking the bank, our offensive line is pretty much a finished product. Second-year tackle Donald Stephenson, I think, showed enough on the left side in relief of an injured Albert to warrant a shot at RT. Hudson will be back from injury, Asamoah has been playing strong and free agent pickup Geoff Schwartz can play both inside and out. If the Chiefs use a mid-round pick on a right tackle prospect and/or pick up a journeyman lineman for the veteran minimum, I think we we’re pretty much set in terms of depth and quality starters.

With that in mind, what do you do when you have the highest pick on a team that has no glaring holes? You have the luxury to do whatever you want. Grab an impact player that has the potential to be a difference-maker regardless of position.

When it comes to premium positions and this year’s draft class, I think that difference-maker is an outside pass rusher. Here’s what’s great about this year’s crop of pass rushers – it’s like Baskin Robbins, there’s a guy for every flavor. If you’re looking for a raw stud with a huge ceiling, you have Ezekiel Ansah. Want a more polished prospect from a premiere team? Take Barkevious Mingo. A Bruce Irvin fan? Well, basically the same guy is available this year, except he was more productive and his name is Jarvis Jones.

For my money though, I like me some Dion Jordan because he is so versatile. I know a lot of you are going to instantly say that I am crazy because we already have two high-end pass rushers. But, especially given that we have a D-line that can’t pass rush if their life depended on it, we need constant production out of our blitzing ‘backers. The best way to ensure that is to keep them fresh with a good rotation.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Hali in particular seemed to get worn out late in games last year, clocking just one sack in the 4^th quarter all season (Houston had three). To be fair, in most 2012 games, the Chiefs were practically in body bags waiting for the coroner by the 4^th. Most teams were content to grind it out on the ground until they could go home and celebrate.

Nonetheless, with Tamba turning 30 this year, it would be a good idea to cycle someone else in occasionally to keep him fresh and ready.

Furthermore, Dion Jordan brings some talents to the table that Houston and Hali don’t. The first and most obvious one is height. At 6’6”, Jordan would be the tallest guy on our side of the field. He also has longer-than-average arms (33 7/8’) and bigger-than-average hands (10’). Originally a tight end, he can find the ball and not only bat it down, with a bit of training he could be make some opportunistic catches as well.

Imagine 3^rd downs when the Chiefs move to a 3-3-5 front with Hali, Houston and Jordan all charging forward. You could then play with that format and have Jordan fake the blitz then sit on one of the QB’s dump-off routes on the flat or short down the middle. That’s an interception waiting to happen.

Jason O. Watson-USA TODAY Sports

The only knock against Jordan currently is that he could use a bit more polishing. Despite his blazing speed (having run the 40 at 4.60) and production (10.5 sacks in 12 games his senior year), he is still transitioning into the position. In the Scouts Inc. profile of him, the only area where they ranked him as “average” was in instincts/recognition, saying, “Work in progress. Has natural playmaking instincts.  Has a good feel for attacking blockers and how to keep them off of his body.  Shows impressive awareness and confidence in space for a guy with his frame.  Can be a quarter-count late locating the ball at times.  Needs to sense when to gear down in order to not outrun the play.  Also will get caught peeking inside on occasion when having edge responsibility.”

To me, that’s all the more reason why the Chiefs would be a great landing spot. In KC, we won’t have to force him onto the field and rely on him to start full time. He can watch and learn behind Tamba and Houston and play in subpackages. And, as much as I hate to even entertain this concept, he could make for a great post-Hali plan.

Tamba’s production is still great, especially for a team that no one bothered to pass against last year. But he is one of our highest-paid players with a cap hit of over $15 million this year and he won’t be playing at a pro-bowl level forever once he’s on the other side of 30. Jordan is also injury insurance for Houston and Hali until that day comes. With nothing but run-stuffers up front, we need two guys on the field on every play who can get to the passer.

Pass rusher is a position where you can never have too much depth, particularly in a division with Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. If we want to make sure that the Donkeys don’t see another Super Bowl before we do, our best chance is to make Manning’s life as uncomfortable as possible twice a year (and possibly more).

I spent the first couple of months of the offseason screaming for LT Branden Albert to be re-signed and bashing the idea of using the team’s first overall pick to replace him. But, now that free agency has run its course for this team, I can see how trading a now-franchise-tagged Albert increases the team’s purse, longevity and flexibility going into the Draft.

Here’s how:

It saves money.

While the new rookie wage scale makes it cheaper and easier to sign top picks, the salaries are also determined by a formula so complicated that I won’t bore you with here. But, basically the contract for the 1^st overall pick this year will be something like 4-years for $21 million in guaranteed money or an average of a bit over $5 million a year. If the Chiefs want to keep the player (Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher in this scenario), then they can invoke what is essentially the “rookie tag” which works like a franchise tag except that it is the average of the top 10 salaries at the position rather than the top 5.

Albert’s franchise tag salary this year will make him $9.828 million in guaranteed money – that’s nearly 10 percent of the Chiefs total player payroll. It’s also reported that he wants something in that neighborhood as a yearly salary as a part of a long-term deal.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, Joeckel will cost roughly half of what Albert will next season, and we get him for that cheap price for four full years. With Albert, there’s no guarantee that the Chiefs will be able to come to a long-term agreement, and even if they do, it’s going to be pricey.

In the end, it all depends on how Dorsey and Reid feel about Joeckel and Fisher. If they think that either of those two prospects have brighter futures than Albert – and they may even think that one or both of them are better than Albert right now – then why pay Albert double what you can get these guys for?

It makes the team younger.

I know that saying this may give fans PTSD flashbacks to the Herm Edwards “youth movement” experiment, but a lot of talent that is still driving this team came out of that 2008 draft class.

The Chiefs have had a great run of free agency, methodically filling nearly every hole on the roster with solid starters. Moves like the trade for QB Alex Smith show that the new regime believes it can win now with this improved squad. But, we can’t turn our back on the future in order to try and win this season. Giving up what could be two 2^nd-rounders is a heavy price to pay for our quarterback of today.

Last year, all the free agency chatter was about Mario Williams and Matt Flynn – the most sought after defensive and offensive free agents respectively. Did they lead their teams on a quick run to the promised land? The Bills went 6-10 and the Seahawks ended up starting a 3^rd-round pick over their free agency prize.

This is a story we’ve seen time and time again. The team that wins free agency frequently wins very little thereafter. We’ve made some smart additions, now we need to draft smart, and for that we need ammunition.

According to reports, the Chiefs are looking for a 2013 2^nd-rounder and a 2014 pick as well. We just signed a truckload of veterans. If we can translate Albert and his $10-million price tag into two young starters, then we can help balance out this team with youthful bodies for the future.

It gives us flexibility in the draft.

Mike Mayock has been saying for a month now that in this draft, you’re just as well off picking 25^th as if you are picking 5^th. This draft is also deep in areas of overall need for the Chiefs. We can easily pick up rotational D-linemen, a right tackle or a good ILB in the 2^nd round. The problem is that we (technically) don’t have a pick there. Although our 3^rd round pick would really be a 2^nd most years because two picks ahead of it were eliminated, picking up a real 2^nd-rounder will give us the ability to move around and target the guys we want. With a second and that high third we could likely even move back into the 1^st round if we saw a great talent falling.

In some ways, the 2^nd round is a better place to be picking than 1st overall. It will be very difficult to trade out of the top spot and get decent compensation and there are only a few players worthy of that top pick. In the second round, not only will there be good players dropping and available, but the trade market is always much more lively there to both move up and down.

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Again, all of this depends on what Dorsey and Reid think of Albert and Joeckel. If they don’t think he’s worthy of the money he is demanding, then we are just renting him this year and will see him depart in 2014 for nothing. Right now, we can potentially get good value in a trade and make his contract someone else’s problem. With another $9.8 million to spend, we can pick up another free agent or two now that feeding frenzy is over and there are bargains to be had.

Meanwhile, the team overall gets younger and more stable. “Draft and develop” is what makes good teams into dynasties, and I don’t know about you, but I’d like to see this new staff turn in more than one exciting and short playoff run like the last four before them.

I don’t know about the rest of you, but this past week has done wonders for my mental health.

Although we still have to get through the rest of free agency, the Draft and training camp, it is quite clear that the Chiefs team that takes the field in September will be the best in years. In terms of balance on both offense and defense, it may be the best we’ve had since the 1990’s.

Of all the myriad moves the Chiefs made in the past week, nearly all seemed to have two things in common: 1.) The players cited the winning credibility of our head coach as one of the major factors in them signing for KC (when was the last time we heard that?) and 2.) (In part because of point #1,) the team got good value with each of its pickups.

On the second point, there were only two players some commentators believe the Chiefs overpaid for: TE Anthony Fasano (4 years, $16 million) and QB Chase Daniel (3 years, $10 million). I disagree in both cases.

First, Fasano.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Line up this guy’s stats next to literally any player that has caught a ball for the Chiefs in the last five years. He’s averaged 4.6 touchdowns per season since joining the Dolphins in 2008. The only Chief that comes close to that is WR Dwayne Bowe with 6.8, but take away his insane 15-TD 2010 season and his average is 4.75 – pretty much the same as Fasano. By the way, Bowe’s deal averages to over $10 million per year, Fasano’s — $4 million.

What’s that? Only crap quarterbacks were throwing to Bowe the last five years? Well, here’s a list of the guys that have been throwing to Fasano since 2008: Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill. The only time Fasano has played with a quarterback that posted a QBR ranked in the top 15 in the league was in his first year with Pennington, who turned in a 74.6 rating that year.

That year, Fasano averaged 13.4 yards per reception and racked up 7 TD’s. Just a reminder: Alex Smith’s QBR last year was 70.1. Moeaki certainly has potential, but he’s only gotten into the end zone four times for us in his NFL career.

Next, Daniel.

Obviously, there is very little tape on Daniel, but the Chiefs got the market rate for him.

I understand a lot of Chiefs fans are skeptical because pretty much the only people who have seen Daniel play in an NFL uniform are Saints and Redskins fans. Luckily for you, I went to college in Washington, DC, and I was still following the Redskins in 2009 when Daniel entered the league. An undrafted free agent pickup by the ‘Skins, he outplayed every QB on the roster that preseason, ending with a QB rating of 110.6. But, the regime decided to stick with QB’s Todd Collins, Colt Brennan and Jason Campbell when the season started because they’d already wasted draft picks on two of them and they trusted old man Collins as a safer backup option.

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Daniel’s spot on Washington’s practice squad wasn’t even warm before New Orleans snatched him by offering him a roster spot, seeing a little of Drew Brees in him. Here’s how his preseasons with the Saints have gone since:

2010: 31/48 (64.5%), 369 yards (11.9 average), 4 TD, 3 INT, RAT: 78.1

2011: 28/53 (52.8%), 447 yards (15.9 average), 3 TD, 1 INT, RAT: 91.3

2012: 46/64 (71.8%), 538 yards (11.7 average), 4 TD, 2 INT, RAT: 98.7

Of course, it’s always difficult to judge players – especially quarterbacks – based on preseason play. On one hand, they’re throwing against mostly backup defensive backs, but they’re also playing with a hodge-podge of offensive linemen and receivers, most of whom haven’t played with each other before and won’t be on the team by the time the regular season begins. In the end, there are reasons why the chaotic qualities of playing in the second half of preseason games can go both for and against QB’s.

What we can gleam from these stats is that Chase Daniel has proven he can be an efficient quarterback and he is progressing. The only lull in his progress towards very high-efficiency throwing was in 2011 when he was obviously trying more deep passes, accumulating a 15.9 yards-per-completion average.

It is also telling that he was able to work his way up from undrafted free agent to second-string quarterback on the New Orleans freakin’ Saints, whose offense requires both smarts and a guy you trust to throw the ball 50 times a game sometimes.

But, don’t take my word for it.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. wrote in an ESPN Insider article this week: “Daniel was one of my favorites among this year’s free-agent quarterbacks, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the former University of Missouri QB makes an impact on his new team. He, too, is efficient, gets the ball out quickly and is accurate with his ball placement. Plus, hanging in the New Orleans Saints’ quarterback meeting room over the past few years couldn’t have been be a bad thing. He might just challenge Smith for the starting role. It’s safe to say that not only will Kansas City be improved at quarterback, but more importantly, the number of turnovers and mistakes generated from this position will be dramatically decreased from a year ago. That in itself should dramatically improve the Chiefs’ chances of generating more wins.”

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Bottom line: The Chiefs got a 26-year-old backup quarterback with upside and Reid thinks he’s a fit for the system. Good signing.

The Chiefs made plenty of other good signings and check out Stacey’s post for a full list and AA’s coverage throughout the week for breakdowns of every player.

The wave of acquisitions has given the Chiefs an all-around stronger roster. We no longer have any gaping holes. In the Draft, we can essentially do whatever we want, which is the strongest possible position.

I, for one, am giddy again, and I haven’t felt that for this team in a good long while.

Well, these new guys sure know how to keep us guessing.

When you think they’re going to zig, they zag. For weeks, reports were coming out about unproductive contract negotiations with the Chiefs’ unsigned stars and our new GM’s affinity for the “draft-and-develop” and “best-player-available” approaches. When the new regime traded our 2^nd rounder (and more) for QB Alex Smith, it seemed cemented that LT Brandon Albert would be allowed to walk, Bowe would be tagged and denied a long-term deal for another year and the Chiefs would draft the best tackle available.

Then, the team locked up all three of the team’s most important free agents – including Albert – in a day. Chiefs nation rejoiced. This made the offensive linemen a secondary need moving forward and freed our hands to do whatever we pleased in the draft. Then, just as suddenly, the team cut our second-best lineman at the opposite tackle spot.

RT Eric Winston’s $4.5-million salary was more than reasonable given his skill and the value of the position.  Did they need the cap space? Well, by restructuring DE Tyson Jackson’s contract, they doubled their cap space for 2013 and they still have Matt Cassel on the roster due $7.5 million next year. More head-scratching ensues.

Maybe they want to go young? Perhaps they’ll move Albert to RT, or start the 1^st-overall tackle selection there. But, they just traded a high pick for a veteran quarterback. Not exactly a rebuilding move. If there were any doubts that the new regime believes it can win now, those were certainly dashed by the signing of CB Dunta Robinson, who is 31 and will make an average of $5 million a year for the next three.

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Immediately, speculation was rife that the Chiefs intend to move him to free safety. This of course did not stop CB Javier Arenas from mouthing off to a local blogger who had the temerity to suggest that the team that gave up 29 passing touchdowns last year (only four teams allowed more) could use some cornerback help.

After spending a few days trying to reconcile the seeming contradictory nature of these moves over the past week, I finally realized the simple truth that we can only see a portion of the plan right now. Free agency hasn’t really started and the Draft is still more than a month away. Trying to figure out what the new regime is doing is like trying to put together a puzzle with only about 10% of the pieces.

To me, this is what we are seeing:

Reid wants an O-line that can pass block

Overall, Pro Football Focus rated the Chiefs offensive line as the 12^th best in the league in 2012, but that ranking was pushed up for them being the 8^th best run-blocking unit. They were far less effective when you look at their pass blocking (14^th) and amount of penalties accrued (15^th). Winston was pretty much the embodiment of that. Winston is a gnarly run-blocker, but committed 10 penalties and isn’t at his best blocking for passers.

This is actually both a deep Draft and free agency year for tackles, so if HC Andy Reid and company think they can find better and cheaper pass-blocking tackles out there, then this move makes perfect sense. In the NFL, it is considered a gentlemanly move to cut players as soon as you are confident you will be moving on from them. Releasing Winston now gives him a jump on free agency and the best chance to get value for his services. Had they waited until after the Draft, most teams looking for right tackles would have likely already filled their roster holes and the money out there would be spent as well.

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The names I would keep my eye on are Gosder Cherilus of the Lions and Winston Justice, who previously played for Reid in Philly and will come cheap. The team is also reportedly arranging workouts with top tackle prospects Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher.

The new regime respects this defense

I honestly expected a lot more turnover on the defensive side of the ball by this point. However, the fact that the Chiefs kept Jackson and reportedly want to hold on to DE Glenn Dorsey shows that they think that this defense doesn’t need to be fiddled with much. They picked up Robinson quickly after he was cut by Atlanta for a surprisingly reasonable price. Generally, players will get a bit more money before free agency opens up, because they are essentially allowing the team to fill a hole and narrow their focus before the floodgates open. Once it’s open season on free agents, everyone’s personal value goes down.

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That’s why, to me, the Robinson signing smacks of opportunism. The team knew they wanted to bring in a starting quality CB or two, they sent Robinson an offer not looking at him as a priority target and it worked. The contract isn’t huge, but having Dunta gives them some flexibility. I would be surprised if we don’t sign at least one more free agent D-back (the Rams’ Quintin Mikell is my best guess).

This is what GM John Dorsey means by “best player available”

BPA is the new zeitgeist phrase of the Chiefs blogverse. It’s what Dorsey lives by, and I think it’s been largely misunderstood. In order to pick whatever you believe is the best value out there, you need to have a solid team in the first place. If your fridge breaks, you don’t go out and buy a second washing machine just because it’s on sale. Very few people will be excited if the Chiefs use their 1^st-overall pick on an offensive tackle, but if Dorsey thinks that the guy is a future Hall-of-Famer and there’s no longer any gaping holes on the roster, I can live with it.

We still need to get ourselves a backup QB (ideally through the Draft) and fill in a bit of depth here and there, but I think we starting to see the new guys make their mark on this team. The O-line is going to be reworked (although we’re not quite sure how), but otherwise we will be a team that rewards their own and fights to compete every year.

My qualms with specific moves aside thus far, I’m increasingly optimisitic for where this franchise is headed.

Last week, I wrote that I was not opposed to acquiring Alex Smith per se, just against looking to him the “answer” to our quarterback woes. It appears that the team has done exactly that.

This post is scheduled to come out at 4 p.m. Central, but as I write this, we do not yet know whether the franchise tag has been used on any of the Chiefs’ three most important free agents – WR Dwayne Bowe, LT Brandon Albert or P Dustin Colquitt.

The early signs and reports are that the Chiefs will likely franchise Bowe, let Albert walk, and draft LT Luke Joeckel 1^st overall. I’ve read countless articles and analyses for and against the trade (most of them for), and my thoughts on this scenario have not changed. Last week I wrote, “if what we end up with is San Fran’s average-to-above-average castaway and a replacement for Brandon Albert who’s unproven in the NFL for the 1st overall pick and, say, a 3rd of 4th this year, it will be hard to deem this offseason a success.”

Even I didn’t think Smith would cost a 2^nd and a 2014 3^rd, as has been reported.

Since 1987, the year I was born, the Chiefs have only started two quarterbacks they drafted themselves – Doug Hudson (7^th round, 1987) and Brodie Croyle (3^rd round, 2006). In fact, since I have been alive, the Chiefs have only twice drafted a quarterback higher than the 3rd round – Mike Elkins in the 2nd in 1989 and Matt Blundin in the 2^nd in 1992. The last time the Chiefs used a 1^st-round pick on a quarterback was exactly 30 years ago in 1983.

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None of this has anything to do with Smith, GM John Dorsey or HC Andy Reid, except that it meant that this trade was automatically going to be met with disappointment by a large swath of Chiefs nation.

I hope this move works out, I really do. But, history and precedent have not been kind to the Chiefs when acquiring quarterbacks in this fashion.

I think Trent Green was worth the 1^st-rounder we traded for him and I suppose Joe Montana, who got us our last playoff victory 20 years ago, was worth that 1^st-rounder too by some measure. Green gave us five (mostly) competitive seasons and Montana gave us two before inevitably retiring.

I guess my question is what will Smith have to do to earn what we gave for him? Playoff wins, surely. A Super Bowl? How many years do we expect him to play for us? If we win a sufficient number of games next year, then that conditional 3^rd-rounder becomes a 2nd which, given that we already gave the 49ers the #34 overall pick, means that we will have gotten Alex Smith for the equivalent of a 1^st-round pick in terms of draft capital.

In Montana’s last year, the Chiefs traded a 4^th-round pick to San Fran for his former backup there, Steve Bono. In his first season starting for Kansas City, Bono had a pro-bowl season and went 13-3. Would that be an adequate return for the draft haul we gave up for Smith?

The Chiefs went 9-7 the next year and cut him in favor of another San Fran backup, this time Elvis Grbac. In college he twice won the Big Ten passing efficiency award, holding Michigan’s record for that mark until being passed up by John Navarre and later Chad Henne. He also went 13-3, but really hit his mark of efficiency in 2000 throwing for 4,169 yards with a 59.6 completion rate … in a year we won seven games.

Efficiency wasn’t enough, so we traded for Trent Green in 2001 who got us a 13-3 season in 2003 (are you starting to see the pattern here?) and a playoff loss. Then he got injured and we opted for his 33-years-young backup Damon Huard, who got us to another playoff loss. When Huard and Croyle washed out we traded for Matt Cassel, who got us one more good season, one more playoff loss.

These guys were all above average quarterbacks with some physical limitations but were seen as good decision-makers that took care of the football. They all got us to the playoffs at some point before we realized they wouldn’t take us any further than that.

Look, this isn’t a science and it’s not like the Chiefs have just been pressing the wrong button over and over again. But, this mentality that the Chiefs are just one safe, limited quarterback away from crawling to the promised land seems to have kept the franchise in neutral for practically my entire life.

If Alex Smith takes us to the playoffs next year, I will be overjoyed, but I’m not sure that alone will make this trade worthwhile. Because of the Smith trade, the Chiefs will almost certainly be once again forgoing the roll of the dice that is drafting a QB in the first two rounds – something we haven’t tried for 21 years.

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Think about that. By the time the Chiefs do (maybe) pick a QB next year, it is likely that this quarterback will not have been alive when the Chiefs last drafted a QB so high.

A lot of commentators have been dismissive of the large group of Chiefs fans that are nervous, disappointed or downright nauseous about the Smith trade, claiming that we’re all just blind Geno lovers. As a passenger on the Geno bandwagon, I would like to respectably disagree. We Alex-Smith pessimists are merely those fans who hoped desperately that the team would depart from its philosophy of the past.

So, I ask again, because I’m not sure I have the answer myself, what does Alex Smith have to do to be a good acquisition? How many starts, playoff victories and championship appearances are adequate compensation? Will you be satisfied if he is our next Trent Green?

Because he’s about to begin his 8^th NFL season and won’t be with us forever. Right now, he is our “answer” at the position. He has to be. We have no one to develop beside him, and probably won’t until at least next year.

It has been several years since so much was at stake for the Kansas City Chiefs in a single offseason.

For now, we are the worst team in the league.

We have no credible starting quarterback.

Three of our best players are not under contract.

And we have no idea what our front office is thinking right now.

Like most rabid Chiefs fans, I think that both new Head Coach Andy Read and General Manager John Dorsey were good hires and I want to believe they will make the best possible decisions in this pivotal offseason.

However, the Pioli regime left my heart and soul battered and, like a chronically abused spouse, I’m a basket case struggling to trust. Add to this that we are at the height of the NFL misinformation season, where GM’s go out of their way to confuse and manipulate the agents and other teams to lower contract offers and juke out opponents. Unfortunately for us shell-shocked fans, the tactics work on us too.

We don’t know what to think.

By the end of the day, if reports are to be believed, it may be announced that the Chiefs have secured a deal to trade for San Francisco QB Alex Smith. Then again, we may end up trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles once the league years starts on March 12, and apparently talks are already running for that.

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Meanwhile, we have been told both that the team is working to re-sign LT Brandon Albert and that is also is high on LT draft prospect Luke Joeckel. Dorsey has come out poo-pooing the QB class, while it appears to be a consensus that Geno Smith solidified his status as a top 10 pick with his performance at the Combine.

We have yet to use the franchise tag, which will allow us to lock up Albert, WR Dwayne Bowe or P Dustin Colquitt.

I wish I had some insight into what is going to happen with this team, but the truth is that no one outside of a very small club within the Chiefs’ front office has any idea.

Here’s what I think I think:

I will be disappointed if Alex Smith becomes our “answer” at quarterback. He’s been productive in his last two seasons under Jim Harbaugh, but was a disaster for the franchise for years before that. While he was ranked 7^th in overall QBR for his 10 games in 2012, the three years before that he was rated thusly, 2011: 45.8, 2010: 40.1, 2009: 40.2. By comparison, Blaine Gabbert’s QBR in 2012 was 40.9. Christian Ponder’s was 53.8.

Still, I don’t want to be misunderstood. I’m not necessarily against acquiring Alex Smith if the compensation is reasonable. I am whole-heartedly against trading for him and thinking we’re set at the position. The fact is that we need three quarterbacks. Cassel could possibly restructure for a less egregious cap number this year, but I feel like a clean break would be best for both player and team. Brady Quinn is a free agent and good riddance. Ricky Stanzi and Alex Tanney haven’t shown us anything and probably only have the upside to become backups even if they develop.

In a perfect world, we could acquire either Smith or Foles and still draft Geno. Alex can hold down the fort for a season or two while Geno works on the “inconsistencies” all the scouts have been talking about and Foles could also compete with Geno long-term as an option with upside.

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However, if what we end up with is San Fran’s average-to-above-average castaway and a replacement for Brandon Albert who’s unproven in the NFL for the 1^st overall pick and, say, a 3^rd of 4^th this year, it will be hard to deem this offseason a success.

Alex Smith is just 28 and maybe his best football is ahead of him. Then again, maybe he is nothing more than a system quarterback who benefited from great coaching and a strong team around him that plays both solid defense and hosts a running game that averaged 155.7 yards per game (4^th in the league in 2012).

Maybe his best football is behind him. Cassel’s 2008 QBR rating with the New England Patriots was 63.1 – 11^th in the league and comparable to Smith’s 70.1 rating this year.

On either side of Smith in the QBR rankings this year are rookies RGIII (71.4) and Russell Wilson (69.6).

It was pretty clear that RGIII was going to be a superstar this year, but that didn’t stop the Redskins from hedging their bets and picking up Kirk Cousins as well to develop along side him.

As we all know, Wilson was believed to have limitations in his game and the Seahawks got him for a song in the 3^rd round. Even then he was considered to be a reach. They also gave a big contract to Matt Flynn and had Tavaris Jackson on their roster when the training camp began last year and I don’t think they are kicking themselves.

Like I said, I am only going to be upset with Alex Smith if the Chiefs bring him in on a chariot as the sole answer to our QB woes. We need multiple options for the future. How we go about getting them will define this team for years. There are several cards to play and we can’t see Dorsey’s hand.

So, as much as it’s killing us, all we can do is wait.

The last week has certainly thrown our QB draft predictions through a loop.

The first shoe to drop was Michael Vick, who signed a new three-year contract “that’s really a one-year deal” according to USA Today worth up to $10 million last Monday. He was already under contract but his restructured deal all but ended speculation that he might be a cap casualty and hit the open market. This leaves just Alex Smith and Matt Flynn as starting-caliber QB’s who could be cut or traded by their current teams.

Then, over the weekend, Dorsey heavily criticized this year’s incoming quarterback draft class, citing “so many inconsistencies” and “too many technical flaws, scheme flaws” among this year’s crop.

Like Paddy, I struggle to understand the purpose of these statements except that maybe he’s hoping to find a trade partner who is enamored with either DT Star Lotulelei or LT Luke Joeckel (the consensus top prospects at the moment) and is willing to hopscotch up to the Chiefs’ spot to guarantee not missing out on one of them. Then again, it’s February and GM’s are usually the last person you can trust leading up to the draft. On the other hand, when you hold the first pick, you don’t really need to juke out anyone.

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A few days before his statements came reports that the Chiefs were interested in trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles. It remains unclear if these reports or credible or just idle speculation that Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid would be interested in taking the quarterback he drafted last year and started in the final seven games of the season. One way or the other, with the Chiefs QB options narrowing, it is certainly worth considering whether the team should make a play for Foles and what he would be worth.

In my opinion, Foles is worth at least the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick. Here’s why:

His overall stats for his rookie season were unimpressive: 1-7 record, 60.8% completion percentage for 6.41 yards per completion, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. But, it’s important to see how he progressed. In his last four games last year he was 5 TD’s, 2 INTs for 1,152 yards (a 289.25 per-game average).

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Consider also that he was never supposed to see the field in 2012. He was widely regarded as a guy who would need a lot of development to be ready to play in the NFL.

Furthermore, he was able to put in respectable performances for the Eagles during the home stretch of a season that was a slow motion implosion. Our very own Andy Reid was a lame duck in Week 3. The defense was a sieve, allowing a 27.8 per game (3^rd-worst in the league). Two coaches were fired mid-season. The offensive line was a disaster, allowing a league-high 118 QB hits, and 48 sacks. Only four teams allowed more.

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In some ways, none of this was new to him. He played college ball at Arizona, a middling team in the PAC-12 that played poor defense and only got to one bowl game during his stint there. Their head coach was fired after his junior season.

Nonetheless, Foles was a highly ranked prospect in the 2012 Draft because he possesses the prototypical qualities of a successful quarterback – 6’5” with a big arm and knack for dropping bombs in his receivers’ breadbaskets. In his final season for the Wildcats, he gained 4,334 yards with 28 TD’s and 14 INT’s. He was ranked CBS Sports’ 48^th overall prospect and was expected to go in the mid-to-late 2^nd round. (For a total breakdown of his college work, check out Ladner’s post on the subject from last year).

In fact, the only reason he fell so far was likely because last year’s draft class was so much richer than this year’s and there had already been a feeding frenzy on signal callers. Six quarterbacks were taken ahead of Foles — Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson. All but one of those guys started this year and proved that they could be productive players. After Foles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Lindley were selected and also ended up playing for their respective teams. So, while the Eagles may have gotten him for just a 3^rd, that was a steal. Luckily for us, Pioli grabbed a backup lineman instead.

So what is he worth?

For the record, I should reiterate that I continue to believe that the Chiefs’ best course of action is to franchise LT Brandon Albert, re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe and grab the top quarterback prospect (Geno Smith) with our first overall pick. We can pick up some serviceable veterans and depth players to plug in the rest of our holes with free agency and the lower-rungs of the draft.

But, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a case for grabbing Nick Foles.

With his youth, upside and NFL experience, I think Foles would easily be one of the top three quarterback prospects if he was magically inserted into the 2013 draft. His tape reminds me a lot of Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon and it’s possible that both of those guys will go in the first round. I can’t fathom either of them falling out of the 2^nd.

So, Nick Foles’ former draft position doesn’t matter much when talking about draft compensation this year. In fact, given that he showed the ability to be productive at this level automatically means that he is worth more than the 88^th overall pick, where he was chosen. Therefore, the Eagles are right to expect more in return.

If we’re talking about equitable compensation I think the conversation starts at the Chiefs’ 3^rd-round pick, which, as Ladner pointed out, is really a late 2^nd-round pick because the Saints and Browns have no 2^nd-rounders this year. We will still probably get a late-3^rd compensatory pick, so the sacrifice isn’t devastating. But, I don’t think the Chiefs should go as high as our #34 selection this year, simply because we need to get value with that pick this year (especially if we are going to “reach” at #1). But, I think it makes perfect sense to offer conditional 2014 picks and maybe even 2015 picks based on Foles’ performance.

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A possible deal could look like this – a 3^rd or 4^th this year and a 6^th next year that could increase to a 4^th, 3^rd, or even 2^nd-round pick in 2014 if he starts for us and takes us to the playoffs. Generally, a pick next year is considered the equivalent of a pick in the current year minus one round. In other words, a 3^rd-rounder next year is worth a 4^th-rounder this year in terms of draft capital.

With this kind of a deal, worst case scenario is that we give up one of our top-100 picks this year and not much else for a starting-quality backup, who is better than any QB we currently have on the roster, who is 24 and who has a ton of upside. He totally outplayed Brandon Weeden last year, who was taken in the 1^st round and is five years older.

If Foles starts for us and we do well with him in 2013, we won’t care that we lost our (late) 2^nd or 3^rd-round pick next year to get him.

Furthermore, Philadelphia may not be so determined to fetch such a high price. While they have said that they would need to be “blown away” by an offer, they have a new regime and are looking for a different type of quarterback. By re-signing Michael Vick and picking up QB Dennis Dixon, who Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly coached in Oregon, they are showing they want a guy who is mobile and can keep up with Kelly’s offense. Slow feet is one of Foles’ greatest weaknesses. He is the black sheep on the roster. So, while they see value in him, that doesn’t mean they’re in love.

While I know it would be groan-inducing for most Chiefs fans, trading for Foles may also be the team’s best way to get one of the most objectively talented prospects in the 2013 Draft plus a possible quarterback of the future. I’ve been on the record as saying that it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to bypass Geno for Lotulelei or Joeckel, but adding Foles to our shopping bag as a 3^rd round pick changes things a bit.

If Dorsey truly is averse to grabbing the top QB in 2013, I think the best consolation prize we are going to find is Nick Foles.

Last week, I laid out why I think it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to select DT Star Lotulelei with their first pick. This week, it’s Joeckel’s turn.

There’s probably no player more frequently mocked to the Chiefs than LT Luke Joeckel, but there are a lot of problems with that pick.

Still, let’s start with the good:

He’s a blue chip player at a blue chip position and if the Chiefs don’t re-sign Brandon Albert, it’s a need position for the Chiefs as well.

By almost all accounts he is one of the top three prospects in this draft. Left tackles with the natural ability and prototypical size that he has do not grow on trees. In a year of iffy quarterback prospects, tackles also tend to be safer picks and he’ll be cheaper than retaining Albert’s services most likely.

He has no injury concerns and held his own against some of college football’s best pass rushers in the SEC. All around, he is a low-risk pick and could be the best LT in all of football with some development.

So why not take him?

First off, while there is an overall lower bust rate for tackles in the top of the draft, they’re not a sure bet either. Of the eight tackles taken in the top ten since 2008, all but two are currently rated by Scouts Inc. as just “good starters,” which they describe as a “Solid starter who is close to being an outstanding player … Has few weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchup but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the league.”

That’s not exactly an inspiring result for a 1^st overall pick. If you pick in the top five, you should be landing a guy that is a star in the league for years, not a guy who is merely better than average.

Brandon Albert, on the other hand, is rated as an “outstanding player” by Scouts Inc., which they describe as, “Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL … A feature player who has an impact on the outcome of the game … Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week-in and week-out.”

In other words, if the past five years of drafts are any indication, the Chiefs have essentially a one in four chance of drafting a tackle as good as Brandon Albert. In fact, Brandon Albert is probably one of the most under-rated players on the Chiefs roster. He was ranked the 7^th best left tackle in pass protection by Pro Football Focus in 2012 giving up just one sack throughout the season, and Jamaal Charles ran his best when going wide left behind Albert last year. At the final tally, he averaged 8.1 yards for 459 total, gaining roughly a third of his total yards and three of his five touchdowns that way – including that miracle sprint that won us the Saints game.

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But looking at Joeckel himself as a prospect, he is also far from perfect. Going back to the Scouts Inc. grades, the only thing he is rated as “exceptional” in is “awareness.” Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that he’s a smart football player, but I also get a bit antsy about prospects other than quarterbacks whose primary accolade is that they have veteran awareness, because that is ideally the area where they will improve the most once they get to the NFL. Most players do not fundamentally change their bodies and physical tools once they get to the pros, because there’s only so much more you can do when you’re built like these guys are.

In their grades on both his pass protection and run blocking, Scouts Inc. notes he lacks “power in punch” and “initial pop,” noting he doesn’t always drive defenders off the line, but is usually able to make up for his lack of strength with good reactions. While I imagine he can bulk up some, if he’s getting outmuscled in college, he’s going to get straight up beaten in the NFL. Plus, if his awareness is already topped out, he may have peaked already.

The last team to pick a left tackle 1^st overall was the Miami Dolphins in 2008. They had a similar plan to the one that is very popular in the comment section – they got their franchise LT in Jake Long with their first overall pick and then snagged a falling QB prospect in the 2^nd round – Chad Henne. In fact, there are lot of similarities between the 2012 Chiefs and the Dolphins going into the 2008 Draft. They too had a solid defense and a team with good veteran pieces in place. So how did it go?

What occurred was the greatest single-season turnaround in NFL history as they improved from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008, winning the Tom Brady-less AFC East and going to the playoffs. But, it didn’t last.

Still running with free-agent-signing Chad Pennington at quarterback, the Dolphins turned stale as their game plan of short, accurate passing with Pennington stopped working. Teams also started figuring out the wildcat formation and when Pennington got injured, the team was forced to confront the fact that Henne was something less than a starting quality QB. He finished the season with 12 TD’s, 14 INT’s and a QBR of 51.3.

Three picks after they grabbed Jake Long, the Falcons drafted QB Matt Ryan. Since the 2008 draft, the Falcons’ regular season record is 56-24. The Dolphins have gone 38-42 and haven’t been back to the playoffs since 2008. Meanwhile, Jake Long has ended up being a solid player but has had so many injury problems that the team plans to let him walk on the free market this offseason.

At this stage of the process, the chattering consensus is that it would be a reach for the Chiefs to take any quarterback at #1, however there’s also no guarantee that they will be able to take one of the top two quarterback prospects at all if they wait to try and jump into the back of the 1^st round or take whatever is left in round two. Free agent options are uninspiring to say the least.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a left tackle that they could re-sign who is better than 75% of the tackles taken in the top 10 of the 1^st round in the last five years.

The Chiefs need to decide if they want to be the Dolphins or the Falcons, whether they want to take a chance to fundamentally change this team, or whether they want to play the best card we have this offseason to fill a hole that we’d be making ourselves.

For me the choice is simple, don’t draft Joeckel if you want to take a big step forward.

Super Bowl XVII is in the books and the 2013 offseason has officially begun.

For the Chiefs, of course, the draft talk has been going since mid-season and in case there is was any doubt, I am in the camp of fans clamoring for the Chiefs to take a quarterback with their first pick.

I’ve come to this decision not because I’m smitten with any particular prospect (although I think Geno Smith currently leads the class), but because I think all other options are uninspiring and won’t help this team take the next step. In short, I think Geno wins by process of elimination. To make that point, I’ll be going through all the other players frequently mocked to the Chiefs and that the team will be able to grab with the 1^st overall pick.

First up, DT Star Lotulelei.

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The Good:

Star Lotulelei is a big, big man who is extremely powerful and stunningly fast. He once caused a fumbled snap and recovered it against USC because he hit the center so quickly and powerfully that the guy was on his rear before he ever got the ball to the QB. That’s really hard to do in the split second that the ball goes from the ground to the quarterback’s hands.

Although he made his bones blowing up blocks in the middle and causing havoc for offensive lines, he also was able to chase down runners from behind on plays where he was left unblocked on counters in one direction of the other. Overall, the player he most reminds me of is B.J. Raji – both an unstoppable force and an immovable object. I’m really not sure what would happen if two Star Lotulelei’s collided, but it would probably tear a hole in time and space.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Bad:

We’ve drafted this guy before.

Several times in fact.

This isn’t necessarily his fault, but I don’t need to remind Chiefs fans that this team has an awful history of selecting defensive linemen with their first picks in the draft. Still, in case anyone has forgotten, this is how it has gone lately with run-stuffing DT’s that KC grabbed with their first selection that year:

2001, 75^th overall pick Eric Downing – Started just 13 games for the team in three years before being cut and picked up by the Chargers, who in turn cut him after one season. He accumulated just two sacks and 44 tackles in those four years.

2002, 6^th overall pick Ryan Sims – Started 36 games for the team in five seasons on the roster, racking up just five sacks and 64 tackles before being let go.

2004, 36^th overall pick Junior Siavii – Cut after two years without ever starting a game. Had 13 tackles and one sack for the Chiefs.

2006, 20^th overall pick Tamba Hali – Obviously has become a franchise pass rusher for the team and one of the most important pieces of our defense … but only after we moved him off the line to linebacker.

2008, 5^th overall pick Glenn Dorsey – Has never been worth his contract although he has turned into a respectable player in the 3-4, but he’s been injury prone and his best season was in that magical (possibly fluky) 2010 season, in which he had 51 tackles and two sacks. My guess is that he won’t be with the team next year.

2009, 3^rd overall pick Tyson Jackson – Last November, Pro Football Focus wrote of Jackson: “However you want to spin it, Jackson was a bad draft pick. Not because he’s a bad player, but because you don’t spend a third overall pick on a two down run stuffing end [more on that later]. That’s what the Chiefs did and they’re having to live with the consequences of his astronomical salary. His work in the run game has been decent this year (though nowhere near as good as 2011), but he’s yet to pick up any pressure. In fact, throughout his career he has 19 quarterback disruptions. Through 8 weeks of the NFL season, 43 defenders have more this season alone.”

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2012, 11^th overall pick Dontari Poe – He may yet turn into something, but a pass rusher he is not. At the end of the year, PFF noted: “In his rookie season, Dontari Poe had the lowest Pass Rushing Productivity of all defensive/nose tackle, at 2.3. In his 391 pass rushes, he had zero sacks, three hits and nine hurries. The two lowest 3-4 defensive ends included Tyson Jackson at 2.2, and Ropati Pitoitua at 2.3.”

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, Kansas City defensive linemen have been useless against the pass, and that won’t change if we pick up Lotulelei.

Although he is Scouts Inc.’s top overall rated player and is the top rated defensive tackle (4^th overall) on Mel Kiper’s Big Board, he still grades out poorly as anything other than a run-stuffer. He had just average production for his position with 41 tackles and five sacks in 2012. As with Poe, scouts rightly point out that given the extreme difference in level of play between college and the NFL, prospects should stand out big time at the college level. They should look like the best player on the field – especially if they are considered a top-10 pick. I’m not sure that’s the case with Lotulelei.

Scouts Inc. graded him as “below average” on pass rush skills, saying: “Needs development and doesn’t have a ton of upside in this area. Flashes an effective bull rush to collapse the pocket when staying low. However, too often comes off the ball too high initially. Does not have a wide array of pass rushing moves right now. Also needs development with hands in combat to counter. Shows good instincts to get his hands up in throwing lanes when seeing quarterbacks start their throwing motion.”

The only thing they graded him as “exceptional” in was his durability and run defense, saying he’d be a good fit in a Romeo Crennel-style two-gap 3-4 – an accolade that sends a chill down my spine.

If he hasn’t been effective at rushing the passer in college, he won’t be in NFL. The fact that scouts don’t believe he has upside in that area should worry any coach. Honestly, given how much passing and defending the pass has become the marquis struggle in the league, I’m amazed at how highly Lotulelei is projected to be selected.

In the end, I agree with  what PFF said about Jackson. You just don’t pick run-stuffers this high in the draft. While a pass can be disrupted by a single player, run-defense is squad-level effort and one player is not going to make the same impact against the run as a pass-rushing specialist will at getting after the quarterback. Even if one D-lineman is especially fierce against runners, teams will just run around him. It’s always good when your defense can dictate what the other team is able to do, but making them run left instead of right isn’t as big of a contribution as them having to keep extra backs in for pass pro or ignore a side of the field because their receivers are stuck on Revis Island.

While it would be a painfully Chiefs-esque move, the team should definitely not spend their 1^st pick this year on Star Lotulelei. He might help us, but he won’t fundamentally change this team, which is in need of serious work.

It’s that time of year again, when we all scour every mock draft we can find and endlessly ponder and argue about what the Chiefs should do once April 25^th rolls around.

Everyone has an opinion, most formed forged by a mix of personal preferences, tape study, and a survey of mocks and expert commentary. The problem is that draft science is far from a real science and Mel Kiper Jr. is not god. In fact, the man is our creation – he exists as a result of our obsession and boredom this time of year, and don’t get me wrong, I listen to his podcast, read his articles and scan through all of his mocks. Still, that is far from meaning that the Chiefs should take his advice on Draft day.

The big theme of this round of draft chatter is about how none of the QB’s are worthy of the first overall pick so therefore the Chiefs should steer clear of them with their first selection, choosing instead one of the standout pass-rushers or linemen.

Perhaps it’s my background as a journalist, but I hate groupthink and that includes the conventional wisdom that builds up around this time every year and then gets shattered by the guys actually making the decisions. Let’s be clear, regardless of whatever the self-styled draft scientists say, the player that is worth the Chiefs 1^st pick is the player most likely to make the team better, Kiper’s big board be damned.

To me, it is obvious that this player is whoever the Chiefs deem to be the best quarterback prospect available. I believe that player to be Geno Smith, but what John Dorsey thinks is far more important than my amateur evaluation. In the coming weeks I will go through and detail why the Chiefs shouldn’t pick each individual other prospect that the so-called experts have mocked to them, but for now, I just want to point out that Dorsey has a much better track record than the “experts” when it comes to drafting quality players.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s compare the Packers’ 1^st-round picks since 2005 with what the scientists wanted them to choose:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Pick #: 28

Result: Jury Still Out. Perry started five games this season and racked up a couple of sacks, but couldn’t stay healthy and finished the year on injured reserve with a wrist injury.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Pick #: 32

Result: Jury Still Out. I know it seems like a cop-out, but Sherrod has also seen limited time due to injury. He broke both the tibia and fibula in his leg during the team’s stunning loss to the Chiefs in 2011 and hasn’t been back on the field since. Before then, he started five games giving up no sacks but generating concern in Green Bay about his grasp of the fundamentals.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2010: T Bryan Bulaga

Pick #: 23

Result: High-end starter. Drafted late in the round, Bulaga has played right tacklke for three years “near a Pro Bowl level” and will get a shot at playing left tackle in 2013, according to the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

2009: B.J. Raji

Pick #: 9

Result: Franchise player. Raji is a major force at his position and a difference-maker in games.

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

2009: LB Clay Mathews

Pick #: 26

Result: Franchise player. Ditto for Matthews. 42.5 sacks since being drafted. ‘Nuff said.

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

2007: DT Justin Harrell

Pick #: 16

Result: Bust due to injury. There is an odd theme to injury being the bane of the Packers’ most promising young players, but it was again the case here. He was cut in 2011 after four disappointing seasons, which the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel summed up thusly: “Harrell never quite had a chance to cash in on his potential as injuries robbed him each season.” Still, he was drafted with a torn bicep suffered in college and was a risky pick on the behalf of the Packers’ front office.

2006: OLB A.J. Hawk

Pick #: 5

Result: High-end starter. ESPN insider describes him as: “an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He is an instinctive player who understands angles and how to the leverage the football. He has improved attacking the line of scrimmage being more physical on contact. He is solid as a zone coverage defender but may get exposed in combination man schemes.”

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

2005: QB Aaron Rodgers

Pick #: 24

Result: Living legend. A-Rodg probably has to get another Super Bowl victory to punch his ticket to Canton, but he is one of the best three quarterbacks playing this game right now, possibly the very best.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

All and all, not a bad haul for eight first-round picks – one bust, two high-end starters, two franchise players, and one superstar that will define this generation for the team. I don’t need to remind you of what the Chiefs got themselves through these years, but suffice to say it is significantly less stellar.

How did the experts do? Well, this is what Kiper, king of the draftniks, wanted Green Bay to do all of these years:

2012: LB Nick Perry

Ok, this one was sort of obvious. Green Bay needed a pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews and Perry was projected to be the only one available at this spot.

2011: T Derek Sherrod

Ditto. Also shows that these iffy picks were eminently popular.

2010:  G Mike Iupati

Real pick #: 17 by San Francisco

Result: High-end starter. Scouts Inc. has him ranked as the 49ers’ 6^th best player.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2009: CB Malcom Jenkins

Real pick #: 14 by New Orleans

Result: Good starter. The Saints moved him to free safety where he shows good overall skills on that dreadful defense but hasn’t been a difference maker. He has four interceptions in four seasons.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

2008: CB Antoine Cason

Real pick #: 27 by San Diego

Result: High-end starter. He gives up big plays, but is overall still a solid d-back. His Madden 13 overall rating was 86, which is pretty dern good.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2007: RB Marshawn Lynch

Real pick #: 12 by Buffalo

Result: High-end starter. Lynch is a borderline franchise player and definitely would have been a good pick for Green Bay if Buffalo hadn’t snatched him four picks earlier. It’s also important to note, however, that Lynch was a trouble-maker who washed out for his first team, which very well could have been the Packers instead of the Bills.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2006: A.J. Hawk

Right again! Rival expert Todd McShay had the Packers taking TE Vernon Davis. Now that would be scary.

2005: S/OLB (?) Thomas Davis

Real pick #: 14 by Carolina

Result: Mediocre player. Davis’ biggest problems lately have been health. He only played nine games in three seasons from 2009 to 2011 and didn’t stand out in 15 starts in 2012, picking up 68 tackles, no sacks and one interception for the Panthers.

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

So matched up against the real Green Bay front office, Kiper would have gotten for them four high-end starters plus one good and one mediocre player vs. one superstar, two franchise players, two high-end starters and a bust. That, of course is what conventional wisdom brings – low-risk moves that pay off but make no home runs.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Was 24 the right spot for Aaron Rodgers to be drafted? Well, we know now that it definitely was not. Instead, Alex Smith was taken 1^st overall that year followed by RB Ronnie Brown, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Cedric Benson, RB Cadillac Williams and CB Pacman Jones. Why? Well, it was a strong running back draft class, just like this is a strong draft for defensive front-seven players.

This is why the “best player available” philosophy is always so misunderstood. Best player available doesn’t mean “next player on Kiper’s Big Board” or “the consensus pick by the draft scientists.” It means finding a player with something special that you can envision helping your team, possibly leading it to the promised land. John Dorsey is much better at that part of the game than any of the talking heads, and has proven it.

Forget about what the crowd says would be “good value” for Chiefs #1 pick. Good value is going to be getting the best quarterback for the future we can. Trading Albert for a young tackle prospect is not good value. Picking up another overhyped D-lineman or undersized pass-rusher isn’t either.

In short, don’t listen to the chatter. Dorsey’s got this.

Jan 22, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey discusses with his scouts and coaches following the Senior Bowl South Squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

We all know that this team’s desperate need for a decent quarterback is second to none, but what else do the Chiefs lack?

A quick look at the Chiefs’ 2-14 record and -214 point differential would suggest that we need a lot and one of the positions that I notice commenters griping the most about is cornerback.

Indeed, only five other teams allowed more passing touchdowns than the 2012 Chiefs defense and opposing quarterbacks had a league-high 99.9 passer rating against the team this year. To put that in perspective, Chiefs passers themselves have only twice hit that mark since Week 5 of the 2011 season (Orton once, Brady once, not counting the two passes he threw against the Ravens this year).

And yet, I am here to tell you that our defensive backfield is not that bad.

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Opponents attempted just 464 passes against the Chiefs all year – a league low. There were two reasons for this – 1.) Opposing teams were nearly always playing with the lead and were content to run out the clock and 2.) Gashing the Chiefs with the run was simply more effective. Only five teams allowed higher average yardage per carry (4.5) than the Chiefs.

When you factor in the fact that the Chiefs offense was 28^th in the league with just 17.9 first downs per game and had the second worst ratio of punts to offensive score, it’s pretty clear that the Chiefs pass defense was basically always in a bad spot. The run defense was at best inconsistent and the totally ineffective offense kept them on the field all game.

Also, the depressing aggregate stats belie the fact that the Chiefs do have some real talent back there. We all know that CB Brandon Flowers is a champ and the closest thing to a shutdown corner that the Chiefs have had for more than a decade. He finished the year with just three interceptions largely because opposing teams never throw his direction.

Despite an incredibly bad start recovering from an ACL tear, SS Eric Berry regained his form and, in my opinion, earned his controversial pro bowl selection this year. During a stretch from the bye to Week 15, Berry amassed a +8.8 grade from Pro Football Focus and PFF gave him the game ball against Oakland that week, despite the fact he played for the losing team.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

CB Javier Arenas remains an up-and-down player, but I still think he is a strong #3 CB. He was ranked 12^th in PFF’s tackling efficiency this season and knocks down lots of passes, but is mismatched against big receivers due to his size. The few times that CB Jallil Brown has had to step in, I think he has also shown a lot of ability as a developing player.

All and all, the building blocks are there and I don’t view this group as a weakness. I’ve seen a lot of people who aren’t crazy about this year’s QB class clamoring for the team to go cornerback high in the draft instead. They said the same thing last year, and I just don’t see it.

The fact is that the Chiefs are going nowhere without a credible starter at QB next year no matter how brilliant or horrible their defensive secondary is. Also, when the offense is clicking, even mediocre DB’s can hold down the fort. The proof? Look no further than the Indianapolis Colts.

When they moved on from QB Peyton Manning they figured it was going to be a long road back to greatness so they went ahead and blew up most of the team, keeping just three players among all their D-backs going into this year. With most of the spots in their defensive backfield manned by low-level free agents, they have held together a middle-of-the-pack defense, which was good enough to get them into the playoffs for the right to be destroyed by the Baltimore Ravens.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, signed CB Brandon Carr to big money and drafted CB Morris Claiborne with their first round pick. They also ended up with a middle-of-the-pack pass defense.

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

In short, I’m on the Geno bandwagon. The Chiefs need to get a pass offense before they think about improving the pass defense. I’m all for bringing in some new bodies to the secondary and the team has no need to keep any of their current CB’s not named Flowers, Arenas or Brown, but I don’t think we need to commit a high draft pick or major free agent signing to the cause.

We could clone Brandon Flowers twice, have him play three positions in the defensive backfield and still win only two games in 2013.

Only a QB can save us.

Last Friday, a shot rang out through Chiefs nation – one that meant hope, credibility and a lot of change.

By firing GM Scott Pioli and bringing in head coach Andy Reid, Clark Hunt has set the franchise on an entirely new path.

Firstly, he has done away with the team’s traditional hierarchical structure that seats a powerful general manager above the coaching staff. Make no mistake, going forward, for better or worse, Reid is going to be calling the shots during the offseason, the draft, et cetera.

Four years ago, the Chiefs hired a highly reputed front office wiz from the New England Patriots. Although everyone knows that Bill Belichick is the mastermind behind New England’s success, this guy was a vital cog in his machine and it was believed that the numbers guy could be brought in to reproduce it. That failed, and Hunt learned his lesson. This time around, by hiring Andy Reid, he didn’t get Pioli, he got Belichick.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Having secured a lucrative contract that gives him wide-sweeping authority, make no mistake, Reid is going to make a lot of changes. He comes with a distinct philosophy, working style and mold for a successful team.

Reid is definitely going to make his imprint on this team during this offseason, which means several players are going to get their walking papers while others are going to see their role increase. We still don’t know exactly who Reid will take on with his staff or whether or not he will be keeping the Chiefs’ 3-4 defense, but judging by the way he built the Eagles, I think we can say which players should be happy and which should be nervous.

Offense

Extremely Happy:

WR’s Steve Breaston, Dexter McCluster and Devon Wylie

Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Reid loves small receivers that are great route-runners. McCluster has come on has an effective slot guy and I have a feeling that Reid will find something to do with Breaston who was criminally underused this season. Meanwhile, Wylie showed up late as another developing tool in the Chiefs passing game.

Happy:

RB Jamaal Charles, LT Brandon Albert

It’s been widely said that Reid doesn’t like to run the ball, but that’s not really true. The Eagles were 19^th in rushing attempts per game this year, 12^th last year and 15^th in 2010. In other words, they’re pretty much in the middle of the pack. Charles will still be getting fewer touches on runs out of the backfield (largely because the Chiefs have been one of the most run-happy teams in the league), but he will make up for that with more screens and quick passes thrown his way per game. Charles is a good route runner and could easily become a faster version of Brian Westbrook.

Reid also highly values the offensive line and doesn’t mind spending big to keep it shored up. This is good news for Albert, whose contract is up.

Extremely Worried:

RB Peyton Hillis and WR’s Jonathan Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Hillis is gone. His fantastic game against the Colts notwithstanding, Hillis was a disappointment, only rushing for 309 yards this season for a 3.6-yard average. Like Hillis, Baldwin and Bowe also don’t really fit Reid’s scheme. Bowe is a great outside, move-the-chains threat, but Reid doesn’t typically utilize such receivers. He prefers getting the ball into the hands of smaller, more dynamic players in the middle that have the chance to make big plays. Baldwin has done next to nothing in the league and doesn’t fit this new mold. Bowe will probably be allowed to walk this offseason in favor of a free agent like Mike Wallace. Baldwin will probably get his last chance to prove his worth in the 2013 preseason.

Defense

Extremely Happy:

S Eric Berry

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Reid made great use of safety Brian Dawkins early in his time in Philadelphia as a jack-of-all-trades blitzer, run stuffer and cover guy. Berry has the physical tools to do the same, and I can’t wait to see the creative ways Reid decides to use him.

Happy:

OLB’s Tamba Hali and Justin Houston

Although nothing is certain at this point, it is likely that Reid will want to move back to a 4-3 defense and use both Hali and Houston as edge rushers on the line. Hali is originally a defensive end and will likely be happy to return. Although Houston has done admirably in picking up coverage skills, I personally think it is a waste to make him drop back on passing downs when he truly excels at getting after the quarterback. In a Reid defense, he likely to be able focus on doing just that.

Worried:

The rest of the front seven

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Especially if the team abandons the 3-4, DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson are likely toast. Both are overpaid and underwhelming and I don’t see Reid wanting to keep reinvesting in those projects. Poe will likely stay a bit longer because he is still developing and would likely be effective in a 4-3 as well.

Unfortunately for the guys behind them, Reid has never heavily prized the linebacker position. In his years in Philly, he always invested high picks and free agent signings in defensive linemen and DBs while allowing the linebacking corps to be filled by a revolving door of journeymen.

Although we know Derrick Johnson can excel in the role of a 4-3 middle linebacker, it is still unclear whether Reid will want to pay him big money to continue to do so when his contract is up.

This list will change as we find out more about what Reid plans to do with this team, and I’ll try to keep you all updated as we all find out more.

So, if you missed my piece on Christmas, I was at the Chiefs/Colts game. Not only was I there, but I went on the Game Day Tour and took a bunch of photos both on the field and from the stands throughout the game.

Now, before you start commenting — Yes, I know I have a spot that appears consistently in every shot, but I have been away from a computer with Photoshop for a while so you’ll just have to deal with it.

Without further ado, I give you Chiefs-Colts:

Photo by Nick Clayon

Of course, the game began with visible protests by loyal Chiefs fans. Hard to argue with their message.

Photo by Sherry Clayton (my mom)

Before the game, I chatted with Chiefs Hall-of-Fame Safety Deron Cherry about what the team needs to do to regain relevancy next year. Even though he had been brought in by the team to talk to fans at the VIP tailgate, he couldn’t hide his lack of faith in the team’s current front office, coaching staff and quarterback unit.

Photo by Nick Clayton

The Game Day Tour began in the Draft Room, where, for a price, you can get an all-game buffet and watch from the bar.

Photo by Nick Clayton

This is the level where the Broadcast Suites are located, which can be had for the low, low price of $250,000-$350,000 per season. Apparently, as a part of his contract, Matt Cassel has reserved one of the suites for his family and friends. It’s the one around the corner.

P.S. I have a feeling it will be coming available soon.

Photo by Nick Clayton

One of the cameramen manning the array of lenses stationed on the Broadcast Level.

Photo by Nick Clayton

This is where the magic happens.

At the top level of the press box, a small hard-working team of mixers, splicers, graphic artists and editors take in all the available video and audio from the field and package it into what you seen from your couch, bar stool or building ledge (given the way this particular season has gone).

Photo by Nick Clayton

Everything is routed first through an AV truck on the ground before it gets up the to the top level and it is sent out from there.

Photo by Nick Clayton

This booth also this year gets all the instant replay video real-time before the refs on the field do. They’re allowed to release it to audiences after a certain point but don’t get to give a heads up to the home team regarding challenges, unfortunately.

Photo by Nick Clayton

It’s high up there.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Next, we went down to the tunnel where we got to see Warpath’s pen/staging area. Generally, he’s watching the game, ready to run out onto the field when the Chiefs score. So … he’s in need of exercise.

Nonetheless, later this game …

Photo by Nick Clayton

We ended up going out of the tunnel at the same time as some of the Chiefs cheerleaders …

Photo by Nick Clayton

… and some of the Colts players as well.

Photo by Nick Clayton

About a half hour before kickoff, Colts fans were as much if not more conspicuous than Chiefs fans.

Photo by Nick Clayton

But some hardcore fans were definitely already entrenched.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Photo by Nick Clayton

Even if some were there for selfish reasons …

Photo by Nick Clayton

Luck is a very tall guy, btw.

Photo by Nick Clayton

I wasn’t the only photographer on the field before the game. Some people get paid for this gig, apparently.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Walking along the sidelines, I saw a few things during the warm-ups that I hope to never see in Arrowhead again. First would be RB Peyton Hillis throwing passes.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Second is Scott Pioli smiling.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Two great special teams players:

Pro Bowl Punter Dustin Colquitt

Photo by Nick Clayton

And future Hall of Fame Kicker Adam Vinateri

Photo by Nick Clayton

Also, NT Dontari Poe seems to think that his head doesn’t look Klingon-sized enough, so he wears his helmet accordingly.

Photo by Nick Clayton

And DE Tyson Jackson is huuuuge in person.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Arrowhead Yoga Club.

Photo by Nick Clayton

RT Eric Winston looks sickening and disgusting behind the shadow of his facemask.

Photo by Nick Clayton

QB Brady Quinn takes a long, hard look at the receivers he would mostly miss during the game.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Defensive studs of a feather flock together.

Photo by Nick Clayton

QB Coach Jim Zorn wants YOU to be a signal-caller for the Chiefs. Seriously. We’ll take anyone at this point.

Photo by Nick Clayton

S Kendrick Lewis is a friendly guy.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Chiefs cheerleaders urge you to self-medicate responsibly while watching the team.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Chiefs Owner Clark Hunt came down to chat with the fans along the sidelines. I considered talking to him, then asked myself what I would say. “Nice job”? I’m not a phony. “These are the personnel moves you need to make if you don’t want to be universally viewed as a total joke of an owner”? I didn’t want to be either of those guys. So I just snapped his picture.

Photo by Nick Clayton

Once the game got underway, Brady completed his first pass!

Photo by Nick Clayton

Quinn connected on his second pass as well for a touchdown — to Colts CB Darius Butler.

Luckily our defense held strong most of the game, with Pro Bowl ILB Derrick Johnson chasing ball-carriers all over their own backfield.

Photo by Nick Clayton

And a good time was had by all …

Photo by Nick Clayton

Photo by Nick Clayton

Photo by Nick Clayton

And clearly Chiefs fans are cuter than Colts fans …

Photo by Nick Clayton

We have that going for us at least …

Coming back from my home abroad in the Republic of Georgia for the holidays, the only thing I really wanted for Christmas was to be able to witness a competitive Chiefs game in person.

Statistically, the team’s past performances and the overall matchup with the Colts made it pretty unlikely I was going to get my wish. But, despite Brady Quinn’s and Brian Daboll’s best efforts I was able to stand a few dozen rows back and watch my beloved team play a dignified game against a better opponent.

I even got to see the team make history. The 2012 Chiefs are the only NFL team to rush for more than 350 yards and still lose the game. Let that soak in a little.

I’m preaching to the choir here on Arrowhead Addict, but if there are any readers who have not been watching the Chiefs all season, this game is your indisputable proof that the Chiefs have been sunk singlehandedly by horrendous quarterback play and worst offensive coaching and play-calling in the league. It is very difficult to have 507 total yards and score only 13 points without doing it on purpose. If that was Daboll’s intent, well done, sir.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

If not, well …

Matt Cassel would have won this game.

Mark Sanchez would have won this game.

Heck, Chad Henne would have won this game by two touchdowns.

Andy Reid, who is about to be fired, would have never called for a draw play on 3^rd and 8 with the game tied in the last three minutes against a team that already had six wins in which they came back in the fourth quarter. Norv Turner, who is also about to be fired, wouldn’t even have this dumb play in his binder.

In fact, any offensive coordinator who decides to hand off to his power back in a clutch situation from the shotgun formation (!) on 3^rd and 8 in what is likely your last possession of a tied game needs to be taken in for a round of electroshock treatment. I’m not trying to be crass, it’s for their health.

The fact that Jamaal’s historic performance was wasted because his quarterback not only couldn’t score at the end of drives, but actually killed one drive and gave up an easy pick six, is criminal.

Quinn needs to find himself a nice spot in the UFL or CFL and I don’t say that out of spite or malice. I believe him when he said he’s not interested in the glory, but rather an opportunity to play the game he loves. Through five seasons in the NFL, he has shown that he is a low-end backup quarterback at this level, and even at that, I’m not sure I’d want him to try and carry my team if my starter gets hurt. He’s made his money; if he really wants to play this game I think he’ll find it’s a lot more fun in the minor leagues. There it won’t matter that he can’t hit a single deep throw – the Colts’ coverage was nothing special on Sunday; he wouldn’t have completed those throws even if the receivers were wide open.

It also struck me at this game how much we have lowered our expectations as Chiefs fans. A lot of the post-game talk was about the fact that Jon Baldwin had one of his best games with two (!) catches for 64 yards on six targets. The fact that this is considered to be a noteworthy performance is among the best evidence I can summon for just how much this team has played like garbage this year. In fact, it feels like we have undergone a slow slide in our expectations over the last few years towards saying, “Well, we didn’t get totally embarrassed. Good day.”

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

That bears out in the stats dug up by the Star’s Sam Mellinger: the Chiefs current point differential is a league-worst  -179 and is also the worst in team history. For our sanity’s sake, our brains have prepared us for such an outcome as the four worst seasons in terms of point differential in the 52-year history of team were 2011, 2009, 2008, and 2012.

We have grown accustomed to being blown out or barely scraping by for a win. The only reason Sunday’s game was even watchable was due to Charles’ herculean efforts along with Peyton Hillis, who decided he was in the mood to run, apparently.

Before the game, I was at the Chiefs VIP tailgate, which was near empty like Arrowhead’s stands. On the plus side, it meant no line for food, beer and autographs from Chiefs Hall-of-Fame safety Deron Cherry. Cherry, who racked up six Pro-Bowl seasons from 1981-1991 with 15 recovered fumbles and 50 interceptions, was a quarterback hunter for a decade. So, I took the time to ask him what he thought about the incoming QB class.

As everyone else has said, he agreed that this year’s crop is less than awe-inspiring, but he was more interested in what the Chiefs would do in the front office. I found it very interesting that he brought that up unsolicited because he was presumably brought in by Chiefs PR for the event. The fact that he said he thinks Crennel should go and it doesn’t make sense to trust Pioli to pick his third head coach in five years  speaks volumes because it was Pioli’s office that hired him for the appearance.

For his part, he said he thinks the Chiefs should bring in Bruce Arians, who has ties to the team as a running backs coach in the late 80’s when Cherry was playing. We’ll be pouring over head coaching options over the next few weeks, but I respectfully disagree with the choice of Arians.

Although he has been an accomplished coordinator for several teams, Arians has never distinguished himself as anything more than that and had a disastrous tenure coaching Temple in the 70’s. He should be highly commended for how he has steered the Colts from afterthought to playoffs in one season, but it’s difficult to tell how much of that was his own efforts and how much came from the team’s wunderkind quarterback and emotional drive to win for their official head coach who has been battling leukemia.

It’s a great story, but so was Romeo Crennel last year, and there are too many parallels there for me to get excited about him.

I’m open to other possibilities, but for now, the rest of my Christmas list reads: Bill Polian, Geno Smith and the ability to hold lofty expectations for this team without subjecting myself to inevitable psychological trauma when they take the field.

And, yes, I am willing to share these presents with others.

Cue broken record that’s been playing since 2009:

Bowe is the entire passing game. Charles is the entire running game. With one out, it’s exceedingly easy for even the worst defense in football to shut down the other. There are no quarterbacks on this roster better than low-end backups.

Madden 2013’s automatic play picking system would be far more creative than this coaching staff. Brian Daboll has no coaching philosophy, he calls the offense like a frustrated child plays video games. He’s now switched from kicking field goals on every 4^th down in enemy territory to going for it on every other 4^th down, even when it is obvious to all that it won’t work.

The Chiefs last possession was a microcosm of all of this. They started at their own 29 yard line with 4:51 left, needing to score two touchdowns and a two-point conversion to tie. The drive went like this:

Note: Daboll’s thinking in italics, any sane football-watcher’s in bold.

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1st and 10 at KC 29: Well, they’ve shut down the run and we need to be quick about it, so let’s throw a short pass. Except that’s the only kind of pass Quinn can (sometimes) complete, and the Raiders are also aware of the clock.

Result: (Shotgun) B.Quinn pass short middle to T.Moeaki to KC 38 for 9 yards (T.Branch).

2nd and 1 at KC 38: Ooo, since there’s only one yard to go, I bet they’re expecting us to run since we obviously need to get something going here and our QB is awful. I’ll show them! I’ll go no huddle and throw it deep down field! Yeah! Except there’s no benefit to using the no huddle to keep the same defensive lineup on the field for a new play because the previous play was a pass look as well, and, as for faking the run, well, lining up in shotgun isn’t the best way to do that. Also, Quinn throwing deep to Baldwin is statistically the play with the lowest success rate the Chiefs have. They’d be better off trying a fake FG here.

Result: (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Quinn pass incomplete deep right to J.Baldwin (M.Huff).

3rd and 1 at KC 38: Ah, shucks, that didn’t work like it usually doesn’t. Well, now we really, really need to get this 1^st down and keep it moving. They’ll never expect a draw play on 3^rd and 1! That’s exactly what anyone would expect.

Result: J.Charles up the middle to KC 38 for no gain (T.Branch).

Unnecessarily burn a second Timeout by KC at 03:59.

4th and 1 at KC 38: Ok. Quinn has been a 56% passer so far this game and has even missed guys on screens. The offensive line is one of the few relative bright spots on this team, especially in the run game. We have a $3-million short-yardage back and could also probably get this with a QB sneak. So … yeah, let’s call another pass to a player behind the line of scrimmage. But, just to be creative, let’s not even fake the run and line up in the shotgun. Yeah! That’ll show ‘em. This call is only unpredictable in that it is easy to defend and incredibly stupid on every level.

Result: (Shotgun) B.Quinn pass short right to D.McCluster to KC 38 for no gain (J.Hanson).Turnover on downs.

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The Chiefs need to draft the best quarterback they can get their hands on. In fact, they need to draft two of the best quarterbacks they can get their hands on. Everyone was making fun of Shanahan for grabbing RGIII in the first round this year and then grabbing QB Kirk Cousins with the team’s selection in the 3^rd round.

Well, those naysayers aren’t complaining after Cousins took the start this week and went 26/37 for 329 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT and a passer rating of 104.5 in a 38-21 win over the Browns, who beat the Chiefs 30-7 last week.

I see a lot of people in the comments section saying we need cornerback help too, but we are currently young at the position and I just don’t see it as a major need. Given the fact that the defense was on the field for more than 40 minutes Sunday against the 7^th-ranked passing offense in the league and they didn’t allow a touchdown, I think we’re doing ok there. Furthermore, if you look at what Andrew Luck and RGIII have done on teams that have dreadful defenses, I think it’s clear that cornerback depth wasn’t what was keeping them from being competitive last year.

For now, I think Daboll needs to be relegated to high school football, Matt Cassel should be promoted to OC (at least give him something to do other than brood on the sidelines) and Stanzi and Tanney should be the only QB’s suiting up next Sunday. They’re probably way worse than Quinn and Cassel and so be it. I’m going to be at the game next week and all I know is that I don’t want to see Quinn every take another snap in that uniform again.

I no longer have anything to say about the 2012 Chiefs.

As BJ Kissel put very well on his video reaction to the team’s 7-30 whimper against the Cleveland Browns, “What did we learn about the Kansas City Chiefs this week that we didn’t already know? Nothing.”

The team’s problems in this game were baked into the bread of this franchise from day one of the Pioli regime. It’s the same story over and over. The Chiefs have the worst quarterback situation in the league. The. Worst.

With a healthy Kevin Kolb, the Cardinals have at least one starting quality QB. Chad Henne has reminded Jacksonville what a downfield pass looks like. The Jets, for all the media drama they get, are not worse for wares. Sanchez has actually thrown 12 TD’s this season. That’s as many as Brady Quinn has in his entire career. The Jets still even have a shot at the wild card.

Our vaunted defense is allowing an average of 27.1 points per game and is 25^th in the league with 24 sacks on the year. Woo. Hoo.

The story of our big rivalry game next week against the Raiders at O.co Stadium will be about how the outcome will affect the top of the draft. If Jacksonville beats Miami and we beat Oakland’s league-worst defense (by, I dunno, maybe trying to run the ball?), we’ll be tied with Oakland for the 1^st overall pick. I’m not an expert on the tie breakers after division record and head-to-head history, but wouldn’t that be amazing that if by beating the Raiders in their house we give them our most prized possession – the #1 pick? Leave it to the Chiefs to make even beating the Raiders into a bittersweet experience.

So there it is. That is all there really is to say about this team. We are hopelessly bad and we don’t know enough about what will happen with the front office to even be able to begin talking more specifically about the future.

Objectively, I would be amazed if the Pioli regime survives this turd of a year. Then again, I have no idea what’s swirling around in Clark Hunt’s meticulously coiffed head.

If Pioli is back, this is roughly how I envision the offseason unfolding.

1. First, trade the team’s 1^st overall pick to Arizona for former New England backup QB Brian Hoyer, thus shoring up the position for the long term. He’ll be a free agent, but you can never be too careful. Given that Hoyer was making just over $600,000 this year, we’ll have to make sure that he knows we are behind him long-term, so naturally we will have to take the tough decision to let Bowe and Albert walk so he can sign Hoyer for the long haul with tens of millions in guarantees. The price may be steep, but no price is too high for a backup with little interest on the open market who is acquainted with Pioli personally and knows the Jedi Patriot arts.
2. Clearly, Crennel has not performed well enough and the popular outrage and PR disaster is too much to deal with. Fire Crennel, and promote Brian Daboll to head coach. He knows the Patriot Way, and like any good cult or bad TV series, there’s one thing we know for sure – spinoffs always, always, always, always work.
3. Practice scowl.

1. To make sure the Chiefs have a competent backup to Hoyer, sign Ryan Lindley. For good measure, spit in Peyton Manning’s food again in case he was having second thoughts about even visiting Kansas City for a parley.
2. Consult voices in head.
3. To replace Bowe and Albert, call Oakland to see if they are shedding any players at those positions that the Chiefs can sign and count on. The more expensive the better.
4. Buy new Magic 8-Ball for the draft.
5. Begin negotiations to move the franchise to an offshore oil rig refashioned into a sea bass petting zoo called “The Whisker Pen.”
6. Buy a new suit jacket with wider shoulder pads. There are still some doors Pioli can fit through at Arrowhead.
7. Power nap.
8. Approach the Draft with new philosophy. Instead of doing exactly what the Magic 8-Ball says to do, do the exact opposite of what it says. Brilliant. High five.
9. Re-sign Jake O’Connell.
10. Give candid radio interview. Just kidding.
11. Lose every game in the 2013 season. Blame expectations and, by extension, fans.
12. Rinse.
13. Repeat.

I had forgotten that the Chiefs can play good football.

But, as much as playing well and getting a win for a change felt good, it matters very little how the team plays in the remaining four games. 2012 will go down as a miserable lost season.

Obviously, what was merely an ugly season on the field to this point turned much, much darker this weekend with Jovan Belcher’s shocking and depressing murder-suicide. Clearly, that tragedy outweighs anything that happened in the game itself.

Still, this game showed that when this team manages to not commit perilous mistakes, it is a force to be reckoned with. But, the major factors in this win were extremely unexpected. I did not think that today I would be preparing to heap praise on the likes of OC Brian Daboll, WR Jonathan Baldwin and QB Brady Quinn.

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Quinn played what was easily the best game of his career going 19/23 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and a QB rating of 132.1. Seriously. Yes, that Brady Quinn. Going into this game, his 2012 stat line was: 402 yards on 81 attempts for 0 TDs, 4 INTs.

While Baldwin only touched the ball twice, they were two of the most important plays of the game. He set up the team’s first touchdown on an opening drive in nearly two years with a big 34-yard catch-and-run. Then, late in the third quarter he used his big frame to box out the corner on a quick slant for a touchdown that all but sealed the game for the Chiefs.

This was also far and away the best showing of HC Romeo Crennel and Daboll. Gone were the head-scratching play calls, the ludicrously conservative decision-making, the wasted timeouts, and general dysfunction. Finally, these two were aggressive and they rolled with what was working – Jamaal Charles and Quinn, who was apparently possessed by a devilishly efficient quarterback demon shortly before the game.

It also bears noting that while Carolina is just 3-9 this year, their defense is ranked eighth against the pass and has allowed the 12^th fewest touchdowns in the league. Amazingly, the Chiefs offense was able win the day despite the fact that QB Cam Newton had about as good of a game as possible, finishing with 310 total yards and three passing touchdowns.

While the Chiefs pass defense took a serious hit when CB Brandon Flowers went down with a hamstring injury, the front seven played reasonably well overall. OLB Justin Houston was great as usual. DE Tyson Jackson built on last week’s strong performance and is making a strong case for being kept on the roster, although surely he’d have to take another pay cut to do so.  NT Dontari Poe appears to be continuing to progress and some guy named Tysyn Hartman lead the team with six tackles.

This win begs the question, what will the Chiefs do if the team somehow wins out and ends the season 6-10? Let me be on the record as saying that nothing, absolutely nothing can excuse the way this team played for most of this season. Even if Quinn continues to impress, GM Scott Pioli can’t claim that starting the guy was his plan all along. And, the team absolutely needs to draft a QB in the first round this year no matter what.

Pioli and Crennel should be forever commended for holding this team together through this tragic week and especially for confronting Belcher in the parking lot in an attempt to keep him from harming anyone else or himself. Still, what was true on Friday is true today — Pioli has failed in key areas of his duties and this team does not currently have a professionally competitive coaching staff.

With remaining games against the Browns, Raiders, Colts and Broncos, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if this team manages to make a run. But what will that mean? Last year, Crennel got his job by winning two of the team’s last three games after a long disappointing stretch. But, this team is capable of far more than just-below-.500 seasons and doubling down on this current crew would send the message that a 6-10 season was a success.

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However, I’m also not in the camp of people hoping this team will be so putrid through the next month that it will earn the dubious honor of holding the 1^st overall pick in the Draft. It appears so far to be a weak QB draft, and guys like Geno Smith will be within reach for Kansas City pretty much no matter how the pick order shakes out. If it takes a RG3-type deal to get the guy that the Chiefs think they need, I’m all for it, but I don’t think it will be necessary.

This season has been a mess, and the team had shown poor mental toughness through 11 weeks of football. But leave it to the Chiefs to shock and surprise you in a game just when you thought you knew what you think about them.

The basic truth is that this Monday is just like every other Monday: we wake up, go to work, the Chiefs lost again, still no one has been fired.

Nothing else really matters right now, but as I was watching last night’s predictably loathsome outing, I was surprised by one thing – Pioli’s draft picks are starting to make a difference.

Up until this point, all the bright spots on this squad had all been drafted by the Herm Edwards regime or earlier – RB Jamaal Charles (3^rd, 2008), OLB Tamba Hali (1^st, 2006), ILB Derrick Johnson (1^st, 2005), CB Brandon Flowers (2nd, 2008), LT Brandon Albert (1^st, 2008), WR Dwayne Bowe (1^st, 2007). It was looking like four years of drafts manned by Scott Pioli and company had been a total waste and the team had overall moved backwards.

Furthermore, looking at injuries and the past performance of both of these teams, this matchup looked brutal. The left side of the Chiefs’ O-line was to be run by two rookies against one of the league’s best pass rushes. With CB Stanford Routt cut, the Chiefs would be defending Peyton Manning’s passes at the flanker and slot positions with CB Javier Arenas and CB Jallil Brown. Four and five receiver sets would put Travis Daniels and Abram Elam on the field. With Jonathan Baldwin out and Bowe nicked up, Terrance Copper and Jeremy Newsome were to see significant action as number-two receivers.

I was mentally preparing myself for watching the blowout of the season. Maybe the century.

To my surprise, due to a valiant defensive effort, Charles, and some uncharacteristic miscues on the part of the Broncos, this was a close, competitive game. Basically, the only reason this game wasn’t a massacre was because Pioli’s draft picks — hitherto invisible and ineffective — finally came to play.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Let’s start with the aforementioned rookie linemen – LT Donald Stephenson (3rd, 2012) and LG Jeff Allen (2^nd, 2012). Along with RG Jon Asamoah (3^rd, 2010), both blocked extremely well in the run game and held their own in pass protection. Allen had already shown flashes this year. This was Stephenson’s coming-out party. With the exception of a dumb clipping penalty that stalled a drive, the ex-Sooner had a good game and looks to be a valuable situational tackle and reserve and for Albert down the road.

The cornerbacks not named Brandon Flowers that I was terrified about actually played head’s up all day. This was easily Arenas’ (2^nd, 2010) most solid all-around game. He covered very well and put the offense in good field position several times in the return game (not that they did anything with it).  While he still has his struggles, Brown (4^th, 2011) also looked like a pro and stuck with his receivers all day.

S Eric Berry (1^st, 2010) had a decent comeback game. Despite allowing one of the two touchdowns, he seems to be finding his way back to playing like a quality starter with a tackle-for-loss and two passes defended.

WR Dexter McCluster (2^nd, 2010) caught every ball thrown his way and had a key 19-yard run on one of the Chiefs better drives. TE Tony Moeaki (3^rd, 2010) is also showing he’s finally healthy after his preseason knee-tear last year.

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As a unit, this was the D-line’s best game this year. While he hasn’t been racking up stats (as expected), NT Dontari Poe (1^st, 2012) is coming into his own and had his name called a lot yesterday with four tackles, a tackle-for-loss and a pass batted down. DE Tyson Jackson (1^st, 2009) is finally looking like a dynamic lineman in several consecutive games and was good following the ball and quarterback, getting to Manning twice for a QB hit and a tackle right on the line of scrimmage that otherwise would have been recorded as a sack.

But, of course, the star of the show (and clearly the best value pick of Pioli’s tenure) was OLB Justin Houston (3^rd, 2011). Amazingly, Houston is outplaying even Hali – the Beast himself. He was a constant terror for Manning and finished the day with four solo tackles, two sacks and four QB hits. He now has nine sacks, one forced fumble, an interception, and four passes defended in 2012.

However, as much as this game would seem to compliment Pioli’s drafting acumen, it was also an indictment of his free agency wheeling-and-dealing. Aside from the obvious failure of the Routt signing, RT Eric Winston has played well but not outstanding and has a tendency to pick up a couple of penalties per game.

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Most glaring of course is the quarterback position. Trading the 34^th overall pick in 2009 netted the Chiefs: QB Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel. Vrabel played just a couple of years for the team and was questionably effective. I don’t need to explain to you how the Cassel experience has been, but suffice to day he was riding the pine this game. Starting in his stead was another free agent acquisition who appears to be a low-end backup. None of QB Brady Quinn’s deep balls were even remotely on target. And while he was efficient in picking up short passes, he was too timid to stretch the field and was dreadfully inaccurate all second half.

WR Steve Breston, who got a five-year deal with $9.5 million guaranteed last year was inactive again behind two practice squad bodies. He has three catches since Week 5. I see absolutely no reason to give the ball to RB Peyton Hillis anymore, who was signed for $3 million this year. He’s slow, accident-prone and just doesn’t give the Chiefs anything they can’t get from RB Shaun Draughn.

Still, the fact that several of the Chiefs’ recent draft picks in the defense and O-line are starting to come to life is unambiguously positive for the team long-term. Hopefully, if these guys can maintain consistency, the next coach/GM won’t feel the need to blow the team up and start over with new young players.

No matter how well these guys play down the stretch, however, I just can’t see a scenario in which it saves Pioli’s job. Even if we do somehow look back at his drafts as being effective a year or two from now, he will still be on the books for constant coaching disarray. We’ve had five offensive coordinators in four years. He fired and denied pay to one head coach after two and a half years, and replaced him with his absolutely hapless friends who turned the brand into a laughing stock. He totally ignored the development of the most important position on the field, and inspired at least one character for the film Horrible Bosses (guess which one).

So, on his way out the door, I’d like to thank Pioli for not drafting totally uselessly. We’ll keep some of these guys as you move on to destroy a different team. Much appreciated.

I was never on the bandwagon for firing Todd Haley last year.

Of course, this all sounds like “I told ya so” talk now, but I enjoyed going back and reading my articles defending Haley and expressing skepticism about Crennel for an entirely different reason: It was a simpler time.

Looking at the old AA pieces I wrote, I realized it was like re-reading diary entries from childhood in the days of innocence before some traumatic event. Back then, we had excuses for our poor play and it seemed like good football was on the horizon. Our coach and quarterback had been disappointing but were still winning some games. The team had an architect that we could still give the benefit of the doubt.

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Now that innocence is gone and we recognize our parents are not paragons of virtue and strength but flawed mortals. The world is full of people who lie and mean people don’t always get punished. This team is off the rails. The last four years have been basically wasted. We have no coach, no QB, no GM and an owner who seems to be conducting a social experiment to determine how long before fans burn Arrowhead to the ground in rage at his inaction.

Back then, we could still say that we had a QB on the roster good enough to get us through games, that we were full of young talent and we were growing a dynasty. Just add water. Today, nothing looks good and people in Chiefs country are dying of anguish and frustration.

It really cannot be overstated. At 1-9, the Chiefs have matched their worst opening to a season in the history of the franchise. I will be honestly stunned if we win another game this year. By every major metric other than rushing production the Chiefs are a disgrace. At this point, both Haley and even Herm Edwards look attractive.

But, it’s really not just because of how bad we are right now. I’ve always thought Haley got a raw deal.

In 2009, Haley was one of 11 head coaches hired. Like Todd, most were successful coordinators somewhere else. Of those 11, only two still have their jobs — Jim Schwartz in Detroit and Rex Ryan in New York, and they’re both 4-6 right now, by the way. By the time Haley was fired only four of those other coaches from the class of 2009 had a better win-loss record – Ryan, Jim Caldwell, Mike Singletary and Jim Mora Jr..

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So, while that was an admittedly uninspiring crop, Haley was among the most successful coaches hired that year. Also, statistically speaking, it was nearly certain that the Chiefs would have a bad season.

Thirty NFL teams between 2002 and 2009 increased their season-to-season records by five or more games like the Chiefs did between 2009 and 2010. Of them, 24 (80 percent) had worse seasons following their surge – with 13 (43 percent) of them losing at least four more games after their surprising season. There are lots of reasons for this of course, the main one: changes in the strength of schedule. Also, the NFL is just a hard place to maintain success. Let down years are inevitable.

But even Haley somehow won five of 13 games without the ACL crew. He even got a win with Tyler Palko at quarterback while the team this year has only even had a lead in two games so far.

It’s also not as if Haley had a whole lot to work with. In addition to the fact that Pioli was diametrically opposed to putting a quarterback on the field not named Matt Cassel, KC’s defenses were nearly always inconsistent, showing up big in some games and melting away in others. He also had to deal with a sociopathic boss who collects candy wrappers, wiretaps his employees and in the end essentially fired him because he didn’t shave or wear a new hat. (Seriously, I’m quite certain that when Pioli gets off work he goes to sit and stare quizzically at an array of severed heads in jars).

But mostly, I just realized that I honestly liked our team that year. I’m finding it very hard to say the same in 2012. In 2011, we were a team ravaged by injuries playing above our level of talent and clawing for every win. Now, we’re just a bundle of undisciplined players making dumb mistakes and barely giving opponents any resistance as they march up and down the field.

Haley was known for being overly brash on the sidelines, which is something I would love to see these days. Someone needs to yell at these guys. When I heard the criticism about him being verbally aggressive, I always thought it was way overblown. These players are grown men and this is an emotional game – or at least it is unless your name is Romeo. If so, then game day is a time when the bad people make you stand outside for three hours and all you have to read is a laminated sheet of paper while you stare blankly at the field while repeating soup recipes in your head. Or at least that’s what I think he’s doing. Your guess is as good as mine. All I can tell you is that it is not inspiring.

So here we are. Refreshing football news websites over and over hoping to see that someone has been fired. This is what it has come to. We have come of age and discovered that the adults running things are even more screwed up than us little people down below and there’s nothing to do about it.

But, family is family. So, next Sunday and the Sunday after that, I will tune in to watch the Chiefs play. I will cringe and guffaw, and write another piece, although I’m running out of things to say.

Maybe next week this column will be about soup.

How low can they go?

That seems to be the only question left to answer at this point for the Chiefs. Let there be no mistake, the Kansas City Chiefs are the worst team in professional football right now, and will almost certainly remain so through the rest of the 2012 season.

What has led us to this point is also pretty clear. We are on pace to commit the most turnovers ever in an NFL season

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with an average turnover ratio of -2.6 per game. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have scored few points than us. We’re 28^th in the league in points allowed and hold the dubious distinction of being the only team to never take a lead in a game through the first seven since 1940.

We’re not even close to being a competitive NFL team. The Chiefs are broken.

While no obvious solution to the Chiefs’ woes has yet arisen, we can be certain of what will not fix the team at this point:

1.) The current coaching staff. The team is playing undisciplined, uninspired football and everything this staff tries makes it worse. Opposing teams have scored on their first possession of the second half in every single game against the Chiefs this year. Whatever halftime speeches and adjustments are being made are having the opposite effect.

2.) Brady Quinn. After two weeks of taking the starter’s snaps in practice he did not look like an NFL quarterback before apparently being kidnapped by the medical staff in the first half. His throws were way off, and he looked very uncomfortable in the pocket. Cassel has made horrendous, critical errors in every game this season but, sadly, he is still the best quarterback on the roster.

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3.) Firing Pioli (but it sure would feel good). I’m not suggesting Pioli should not be fired, I just don’t think it will help us in 2012. He purged and replaced practically the entire front office staff and anyone who takes over for him now will be one of his disciples. There’s not much any new GM can change on this team at this point. Last week, I would have advocated sending a fifth-round pick to Miami for QB Matt Moore, who at least knows OC Brian Daboll’s offense and might make the remainder of the season less painful to watch. But now that Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is hurt, chances are zilch that they’ll trade away their backup. So, firing him will not change anything (putting his head on a pike might though).

4.) The defense. With its short, mistake-ridden possessions, the Chiefs offense has consistently put the D in a bad spot, forcing them to defend short fields and stay out there for most of the game. But, the defense, for its part, gives up big plays at inopportune times, allows teams to gash them late and has generally failed to make opportunities of its own. They’re not going to be able to bail us out.

While waiting for the Chiefs’ kickoff (at midnight my time), I watched the Steelers-Redskins game, which ended with a similar score (the Steelers offense looks fantastic under OC Todd Haley by the way). Having lived several years in Washington, I am familiar with their pain as well, but this game was so much different from watching the Chiefs. The ‘Skins have a quarterback. A future. They’re 3-5 and their defense is atrocious. I counted 11 drops by their wideouts in the game. And yet, they kept pace and they had a chance to make something happen all throughout the game. I noticed I was watching their third and fourth downs with genuine anticipation. When watching the Chiefs, I just tense up and brace for the dumbfounding blunder that will inevitably follow.

That’s all I want at this point. A dignified loss. One in which the team fights hard to the end but is eventually overpowered by a better team. One in which the team leaves with battle scars, not self-inflicted wounds.

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Watching the Redskins gave me another thought. The Chiefs are not as talented as we think they are, and the sooner we realize that, the better for the team. I lived in DC from 2005-2009. In 2005, the Redskins had a solid defense that it rode to a playoff win at the end of a 10-6 season. On top of that, they had just drafted a quarterback in the late first round and he had spent the year riding the pine and preparing to start.

Instead, Campbell struggled and the team aged. Continually convinced that they were one player away from greatness, the Redskins gave a $100-million contract to Albert Haynesworth and traded high picks for Jason Taylor and Donovan McNabb. Since their 2005 playoff run, they have been 37-59. The solid defense and offensive line they relied on retired and the roster had to be blown up to get young.

You know who else was 10-6 not too long ago? The Cleveland Browns. In 2007, they had a season much like the Chiefs 2010 run. They were effective both on the ground and in the air and looked like a squad full of young stars. All they needed was the right coaches to make them into a dynasty. Through four years and two head-coaching changes, the Brownies ended up 14-34.

What do these three teams have in common? In 2005, the Redskins faced the 5^th easiest schedule in the NFL. The Chiefs in 2010 had the 10^th easiest. The Browns had what appeared to be a tough schedule in 2007, but in the end they had just one win over a team with a winning record by the end of that year (the Seahawks). Likewise, the only winning team the Chiefs beat in 2010 was the Chargers in the home opener.

So, yes, Pioli and Crennel will be gone this year. Matt Cassel is not a good quarterback. But, we shouldn’t expect this team to suddenly dominate with the addition of a new QB or head coach. We were impressive in 2010, but we won against schmos and had a point differential at the end of the season of just +40. The Browns had +20 in 2007. That indicator plus the strength of schedule is a big red flag for teams that are not as good as their records indicate.

Moving forward, we need to forget 2010 and look at this team as what it is — a disaster with a few bright spots. Acknowledging a problem is the first step to fixing it. A lot needs to change on this team. If not, this awful hangover of bad football and self-medication will drag on for many more Mondays (and in this week’s case, Friday).

The time is now to see what Brady Quinn can do. Unlike the classless fools who were cheering the fact that Matt Cassel sustained a head injury, I am not happy that he got hurt. However, the fact that he is means that this is the most sensible to move things over to Quinn.

It can be justified by saying that they want to make sure Cassel is fully healthy before putting him on the field and if Quinn plays well, then no further explanation will be needed as to why he is out there. If he struggles, they can put a healthy Cassel back in there in a few games and claim it was the plan all along.

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But what are we really going to get out of Quinn? Quinn is a player who has played hot and cold his whole career and played in just 15 NFL games, throwing a total of 356 passes. But, since he threw almost all of those passes in Cleveland, he’s an unknown player for most NFL-watchers.

ESPN’s Scouts Inc. write-up on him notes, “He looks the part and puts up great numbers in workouts as well as the weight room but has struggled to transfer the numbers to the field. He does not have much of a feel for the pass rush and tends to hold on to the ball too long. He struggles to throw the deep ball with accuracy.”

That last bit sounds quite familiar.

One way or the other though I wanted to watch Quinn in a full game before passing judgment. Because we just played the Ravens, I thought it would make sense to go back and watch Quinn against his former division rival to compare him with Cassel. Quinn lost the job to Derek Anderson (which should tell you something) in the middle of the team’s Week 3 game against Baltimore. But, by the time the Ravens came to Cleveland in Week 10, Quinn was back as the starter.

But, after seeing the box score, I decided that game would be a snoozer. The Browns lost 16-0 and Quinn went 13/31 (41.9%) for 99 yards, 0 TD’s, 2 INT’s. Cassel’s line for the day yesterday was 9/15 (60%) for 92 yards and 2 INT’s. In other words, the last time Quinn played the Ravens he threw more and was less effective than Cassel.

But, I figured Quinn deserved a better look than that. So, I decided to go back a game. Cassel was also bad against the Chargers last week, and it just so happened that the Quinn-led Browns played San Diego in Week 13 of the 2009 season.

It turns out that this game was probably the best of Quinn’s career. He went 25/45 (55%) for 271 yards, 3 TD’s, 0 INT’s. While the Chargers were able to march all over the Browns putrid defense, Quinn kept them in this one to the end, eventually falling 30-23.

On the opening drive, Quinn looked sharp and the whole offense had an up-tempo feel. He ended up taking them down for a score and was 6/6 for 61 yards and missile TD to his tight end. It was exactly the type of opening drive that Chiefs have totally failed to muster under Romeo Crennel. With Brian Daboll calling the plays, Quinn in this game continued to look poised and in control, throwing several good 3^rd-down passes on his second read.

Watching a game from three seasons ago is a surreal experience and it shows you how quickly things change in the NFL. At the time this game was played, Indianapolis was 12-0. LT was still playing for the Chargers. S Abram Elam, playing for the Browns, allowed an easy TD to Mike Tolbert.

But, as brilliant as Quinn looked in the first quarter, as the game went on he started looking like Matt Cassel more and more. While he managed to not fumble the ball on a 4^th-down QB sneak, he allowed himself to be stripped while scrambling on 3^rd & Goal. In the end, he finished the first half with 12/20 (60%) for 159 yards, 1 TD, one fumble. All and all, not bad.

Although he managed to get another couple touchdowns in the game, he looked downright bad during large stretches of the second half. Most of his yardage came from YAC after checkdowns. Due to his inaccuracy, at some point Daboll put Josh Cribbs in for an entire drive of wildcat, which Quinn capped off with a short touchdown.

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Everyone knows he has guns, but he seemed too eager to show it. All of his throws are bullets, which causes a high amount of drops because the receivers don’t have time to adjust to the ball and it comes in with such a velocity that it bounces off their hands. He beaned his TE in the head on a slant when he wasn’t even looking. Granted, the Browns have had a motley crew of awful receivers for a decade, but he missed several of his guys by a mile. Overall in the game, he missed everything he threw deep and even managed to miss his running backs on checkdowns several times.

And, again, this was probably his best game.

The moral of the story is that the Chiefs need to put Quinn in. Cassel is hurt and hasn’t been very effective. It’s possible that Quinn has improved his game in the last three years. Still though, if his tape is any indication, Quinn is not going to be an improvement over Cassel.

But, I’m not sure he necessarily needs to be more skilled than Cassel, just more efficient. If he can keep the ball moving and not turn it over, than the Chiefs “brawling” (to borrow a phrase from Eric Winston) gameplan can work.

I’m excited to see what he can do, but I think Chiefs fans should have no illusions – this guy is not going to take us to the promised land.

If you came here for an in-depth, numbers-based analysis on why the Chiefs suck, you’re in the wrong place this week. This is going to be a purely subjective, knee-jerk explanation of why they suck.

For those that don’t know me, I live and work as a journalist in the Republic of Georgia. The game ended at about 1 a.m. my time and today Georgians are going to the polls in the most competitive elections in this small country’s long history. So I sort of have my hands full.

Nonetheless, I also represent the voice of Chiefs nation as the official Chiefs superfan for the fantastic ESPN Football Today podcast. I send them my thoughts on the game and they are periodically read to the Internet. Below is what I sent them today.

What can been said about the Chiefs in the wake of their third blowout loss this season? They’re hard to watch.

I try not to fly off the handle, but there is mounting evidence for a number of unhappy conclusions about the Chiefs.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

1.) We have the worst coach in the NFL.

The Chiefs have now looked totally unprepared in the first half of three out of four of their games. Obviously, committing a stunning six turnovers is a problem of execution, not play-calling, but the head coach has a lot to do with the team’s focus and composure going into the games. Our players have looked like deer in headlights most of the season across all three phases. The Chiefs actually failed to kick an extra point yesterday. Wrap your head around that. Despite the fact that Romeo Crennel is certainly a brilliant defensive mind, our defense has been the worst in the league.

Worse, Crennel has continued to pursue pathetically vanilla game plans, even when down by multiple TDs, and honestly he seems content to put a few points on the board and lose by just 17 points or so at home. Everything about this team reminds me of the Mike Singletary 49ers, except we don’t go out and hit anyone in the mouth.

When the players come out playing lackadaisical and look defeated in the first half, you need a leader to shout at some people and get them fired up to play. We do not have any such leader on our coaching staff. As much as Todd Haley rubbed people the wrong way, at least he looked like he cared our opponents were mopping the floor with his team.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

2.) Despite its talent, this is a fundamentally flawed team

The Chiefs were built to play stout defense, be productive with the run and have a QB who can keep the game under control. The problem with this model is that there is extremely little margin for error, and when things start going wrong, it all goes wrong. Also, Matt Cassel is not Alex Smith. Up until this point, I bought into the idea that as long as the run game and defense were clicking, we could count on Cassel to manage his end. The problem — other than the fact that the defense has been horrendous — is that, in reality our entire offensive scheme is based around hiding him. He stares down receivers, he’s inaccurate and he takes a lot of sacks. Every Chiefs fan holds his/her breath when Cassel is counted on to make a third-down throw, and despite having the top running back and top-ranked running game in the league, we still can’t make up for his ineptitude.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

3.) Oddly enough, we could still come back in the division fight

Every team in this division has shown inconsistency, and the Chiefs defense has its moments where it is able to lock down halves — just not games. The second half of our schedule is extremely soft and the Chiefs have shown flashes on offense. If we can put together a complete game, we can probably beat anyone in the league. But right now, there’s no team in the league that I can’t imagine them losing to. The fan base and even the KC Star columnists are clamoring for the Chiefs to intentionally tank the season to get a high-round draft pick to use on a quarterback in the next draft, but that’s just stupid. Not only will there be a lot less teams drafting QBs next year, you can still find good quarterbacks in the teens and 20s — Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers and Dan Marino, just to name a few.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

4.) This could be the end of Pioli

It appears that Pioli has now whiffed on two head coaches and has committed serious money and a second-round pick to a bad quarterback who he has protected from any competition for his job over the past four years. All of the team’s best players — Tamba Hali, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Flowers, Derrick Johnson, Brandon Albert etc. — were drafted before he got here, and are peaking right now. His first-round picks are Tyson Jackson, Eric Berry, Jonathan Baldwin and Dontari Poe. None have made a major impact. Still I would not rejoice at his departure, because it means total rebuilding and Chiefs nation is exhausted from starting from scratch over and over again.

I would not be surprised if neither Crennel nor Cassel are on the field by the end of the season. If that’s the case, Pioli is cooked.

What do you guys think about picking up David Garrard?

Going into yesterday’s game, I thought it was entirely possible the Chiefs would lose. In fact, the Bills were viewed as more or less equal to the Chiefs in terms of talent, so the safe pick in this game was probably Buffalo, given that it was their home opener and they also wanted to make a statement after a blowout loss.

Still, although a loss is just a loss whether you lose by a point or a million, it does matter how you lose, and that’s what stood out most in this game.

Once again, a defense that was supposed to be in the top 10 in the league got carved to pieces. Coverages were routinely blown. Tackling was poor. We had no pressure on the quarterback, and made no plays in the secondary.

After Week 1, I suspected that ILB Derrick Johnson might not yet be fully recovered from his ankle injury. This game pretty much confirms that. He definitely did not show the speed and athleticism that makes him a dynamic player in the middle of his defense. He could not keep up with Buffalo’s running backs and he was horrendous in coverage. Belcher continued to be a huge liability when defending the pass and Flowers looked far from 100 percent.

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No one in the ACL crew looked like they had their 2010 spark back. TE Tony Moeaki was never getting separation and only caught one pass on four targets. Jamaal Charles was totally ineffective in the run game and was put on ice, possibly due to a yet undisclosed injury. S Eric Berry was virtually invisible out there. We now have to consider the possibility that some or all three of those players may never fully recover from their bad knees.

Who would have guessed that S Kendrick Lewis would be so missed?

I presume everyone will now pile on Matt Cassel for this loss, but as with last game, I don’t see it. His stat line was 23/42 for 301 yards, 2 TD 1 INT. In a win, this would be considered a pretty good performance. No one on either side of the ball stepped up when called upon.

I’m just going to say it right now, Jon Baldwin may be a bust. We had high expectations for him given that he was lighting it up in camp, but after seeing how the Chiefs D-backs have been playing, anyone on the AA staff could have come out of St. Joe as a training camp sensation. He wasn’t even targeted against the Falcons and did not look good against the Bills.

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Baldwin never seems to run his routes with confidence and always expects to be able to outmuscle defenders in jump ball situations with his body skills — except that he doesn’t, and one way or the other, we need him to catch and run, not loiter around on the sideline as if he’s playing some elaborate form of Keep Away. In the second half, it was clear that Cassel was forcing the ball to him in the hopes of making something happen deep downfield. Baldwin was never open, never ready and only reeled in half of the balls thrown his way. He got us 62 yards, but in the worst way. I hope I’m wrong about him.

Dexter McCluster, again, was KC’s only reliable receiver, consistently getting open and catching four passes on five targets. TE Kevin Boss again caught a pretty pass, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t miss time after getting knocked out cold after a nasty blow to the head (which wasn’t really a penalty, but the refs gave us that one). As has long been the case, WR Dwayne Bowe emerged in the second half as the Chiefs’ only big-play threat, catching eight passes for 102 yards and 2 TDs.

Timothy T. Ludwig-US PRESSWIRE

This too, however, has a dark undercurrent to it though, as BJ Kissel pointed out on the Chop Talk postgame podcast. It is currently looking like the Chiefs will have to franchise Bowe again this year, to which he will likely respond by holding out again. The alternative is to pay him big bucks that Pioli doesn’t want to shell out and honestly may be more than he is worth. Still, as Kissel said, “This offense is scary to think about without Dwayne Bowe on this team.”

The offensive line, which was also supposed to be a great strength of this team in 2012, floundered. Cassel was under near-constant pressure and took five sacks. In his short, but illustrious career, this is the first time that Bills DT Kyle Williams has gotten two sacks in one game, and he also drove G Jon Asamoah into Charles for a 5-yard loss. Congratulations, Kyle.

RB Peyton Hillis, who was supposed to be the safe, pounding runner, gave up a critical fumble on the 1-yard line.

But, what killed the Chiefs most in this game was not the poor play of individual players or units, it was the shell-shocked reaction of the entire team to the Bills’ initial success. Early in the second quarter you could see the team as a whole shaking their heads and looking at the scoreboard as if to say, “Well, I guess this just isn’t our game.”

This is unacceptable, and it was by far the most infuriating part of this game. This team seemed to be totally unprepared and they gave up early. That’ll happen in high school. It’ll happen in college. This is unacceptable in the pros.

Special teams gave up another long kickoff return for a touchdown at the worst possible time allowing the Bills to seal the victory in the third quarter. Even my wife, who is still learning the game, correctly pointed out that no one looked focused.

Cassel, the usual scapegoat, was also strip-sacked and was never even close to saving us in the game, but he also scrambled well and showed toughness while getting what little was there. In the end, Cassel, McCluster and Bowe seemed like the only players still interested in playing the game by halftime.

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This is where the coach is supposed to come in. Not only did the Chiefs seem unprepared, they looked utterly outcoached on defense. With as bad as DJ has looked against the pass, how could Crennel put him in coverage on TE Scott Chandler – one of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite weapons – in the red zone, allowing him to give up an easy touchdown on virtually the exact same play that Tony G scored with last week?

Comparatively, Brian Daboll’s scheme overall looks like it will get us places this year. I liked some of the matchups he exploited, but I can’t honestly say anything positive about the defense.

After halftime, I was expecting the Chiefs to come back fired up, and, while I knew likely wouldn’t be able to catch up to the Bills, I expected them to at least play like professionals. Instead they came out flatter than before. Crennel, who is known for his friendly, soft-spoken demeanor, was unable to get rally the troops. In that situation, the players didn’t need a friend; they needed leader that would kick them in the ass and tell them to go out and play with pride.

Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

When it was time for the Chiefs to pick a new head coach after the 2011 season, I was one of the few who went against the grain in suggesting that Crennel was not the best choice. In addition to the fact that he had been unsuccessful in the top job before, many of the things that doomed Todd Haley’s tenure in KC – namely blowout losses – were failures on Crennel’s part as well. Getting torched for lopsided losses is as much the defensive coordinator’s fault as it is the head coach’s. Crennel has now presided as DC over two seasons of disgustingly poor defensive play in the opening games.

Although he engineered big wins in the last three games of the season, not much else stands out in his resume other than the fact that he is from the New England system and the players seem to like him.

After the game, Crennel said he didn’t really know how or why the Chiefs got so thoroughly demolished in the game. Paddy quoted him as saying, “I’m gonna say that I thought we would be better. I really thought that we would be better but we’re not so we’ve got to figure out why that is.”

This is very distressing.

Now, because I have just spewed 1,300+ words of negativity, here’s some happy thoughts for anyone still reading:

1.) The Chiefs came back from blowout losses and crucial injuries in the first two weeks of the season last year, and stayed in division contention to the end. So, if you haven’t blacked it out of your memory, you will recall that you felt this bad after Week 2 last year and it got better.

2.) The Chiefs aren’t the only team that has allowed a league-high 75 points so far in the 2012 season. We are tied with the New Orleans Saints and we play them next week.

3.) Kansas City is currently fifth in the league in total offense, fifth in rushing and 11^th in passing. So, hey, at least that’s not our biggest problem anymore!

4.) As bad as the Chiefs’ loss today was, the Raiders’ beatdown was worse. They got crushed 13-35 against the Miami Dolphins, considered by many to be the worst team in the league.

5.) Speaking of the ‘Phins, it took the team half of the season to learn Daboll’s complicated offense, but after playing awful in their first seven games, Miami went 6-3 starting in Week 9 (against the Chiefs) with a combined score of 222-131. In other words, don’t worry. The Chiefs are just going to be late bloomers.

6.) Remember that Arizona team that we mowed over in the preseason? Well, they just beat the New England Patriots in Foxborough. If they’re good enough to do that, then we must have something.

Yep, the second half of the game yesterday was pretty painful.

Paddy has already laid out a lot of the good that came out of the game and I don’t want to repeat the same points, but I have to say that, overall, I was also encouraged.

Last week, I wrote that this game would answer the burning question for the Chiefs – whether or not they could score and keep up with high-flying offenses. In the comments, I said, “if they put 28 points on the board and we still lose this game I’ll be satisfied, because at least they will have shown that they are able to get into the end zone. They’ll be getting their defensive stars back soon, and if that’s the only reason they lose this game then it’s nothing to worry about going forward.”

Although we fell slightly short of that, I stand by it and am basically satisfied.

At halftime, the Chiefs were hanging tough with the Falcons, answering them score-for-score at 17-20. Then, the Chiefs were hit with a stream of extremely bad luck. The Chiefs’ second half possessions ended: missed field goal, fumble, interception, interception, punt, touchdown, end of game. Considering neither team punted in the first half, it was clear that there was zero room for error in this game and we couldn’t afford to not score on a single drive. Therefore, when things went awry, it was obvious that the game was going to get out of hand quickly.

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Turnovers on three consecutive possessions (especially on your own 20) is enough to kill pretty much any team in any game. If you consider the fact that a missed field goal is essentially a turnover as well, the Chiefs had four in a row. Not all were Cassel’s fault as some have suggested and generally he played a good game.

Simply put, this game was a one-off. LB Justin Houston showed some good moves and got a sack and two QB hits, but we still cannot create consistent pressure without Hali. Having reserves Jacques Reeves and Abram Elam in for CB Brandon Flowers and S Kendrick Lewis is more than a step down, it’s a lifestyle change – our strength was suddenly a weakness. We went from being a Wall Street exec to being a bum, eating a hairy fish on the bus in a Santa suit. There are quite a few teams the Chiefs can beat while eating fish in a Santa suit (cough – Arizona!), but those teams don’t have Roddy White and Julio Jones. We had no answer for those two.

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Sometimes the game is just stacked against you and you’re going to end up getting kicked in the mouth. That’s what happened here. For me, the low point was Gonzo dunking on us in the end zone as the Falcons went up by 17. Tony G was my childhood idol – I even played tight end and wore his number at Topeka High – and I for some reason thought he wouldn’t do it. Basically he gave into his quarterback’s urging, which he probably couldn’t refuse, but like the thousands of Chiefs fans booing at Arrowhead, I felt betrayed.

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But don’t get down on yourselves, Chiefs fans! As Grandpa Romeo assured us on Twitter, “No one panic…. The Steelers, Saints, Packers, Giants are all 0-1 #StepAwayFromTheLedge.” The vaunted Steelers defense allowed 31 points to the Donkeys. The Saints got smacked around by a rookie at home. But you know what sure feels good after a loss like this? Revenge. No, I’m not suggesting we sleep with Tony Gonzalez’s wife. (But, seriously, if you have her number, do pass it along.)

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Next week, teed up for our enjoyment are the Buffalo Bills, who just got utterly pummeled 48-28 by the Jets and the hapless offense of Mark Sanchez. Chiefs might also remember, somewhere in the deep recesses of your repressed subconscious, that in last year’s opener, the Chiefs got hammered by the Bills 41-7. We also lost Eric Berry for the season to a low hit from Bills WR Stevie Johnson.

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Week 2 is our chance to erase the hurt from both of these awful games with a resounding win over the upstate New York Bison. I’m sure Buffalo fans are good, well-meaning people. In fact, they have suffered for the past two decades with similarly disappointing franchises. That said, when the Chiefs come back and trounce Buffalo in their own house, I am going to be screaming at the top of my lungs “IN YOUR FACE!” No score is too high, no celebration too excessive. We will all dance a magnificent obnoxious dance in our crushing victory. Not because it’s the right thing to do, but because it will be effective, and necessary therapy.

Can the Chiefs score points?

Of all their successes over the last three years, the one thing the Chiefs have never been is a scoring machine. Last year, the injury-riddled Chiefs were 31^st in the league for scoring with a miserable 13.2 points per game, which was actually a worse performance than the team’s 4-12 season in 2009. Believe it or not, the Chiefs’ total point differential in that failed campaign was only slightly worse than last season at -130 vs. -126.

Even when the Chiefs were healthy and on fire in 2010 they weren’t exactly blowing teams away. Our point differential was just +40, meaning we were scoring just 2.5 more points per game than our collective opponents. It is no secret that this needs to change.

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Overall, the Chiefs are built to control the ball and play stout defense. But, again, we haven’t done the best job of that: last year the Chiefs averaged 310.9 yards per game while allowing 333.3. During the triumphant 2010 season, this indicator wasn’t radically different at 349.7 to 330.2 – gaining 20 more yards than your opponent does not a domination make.

Still, the Chiefs have found success in the recipe of playing everyone close, controlling the ball and wearing down opposing defenses to eventual 4^th-quarter victories. In short, get a little bit ahead and hold on for dear life. But, the other issue with the Chiefs possession-based style is that the Chiefs absolutely must score at the end of their long drives. This recipe can work if the Chiefs are able to play offense efficiently enough to rack up points while chewing up clock and have a defense that is consistent enough to thwart opposing offenses in doing the same. As long as the Chiefs are leaving points on the field with stalled drives, red zone inefficiency and turnovers, the team has to rely on the opponent being just as ineffective.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Last year, the Chiefs were dead last in red zone efficiency at 33.33 percent. Given that statistic and the fact that the Chiefs had a -126 point differential, it is truly miraculous that this team won 7 games.

The good news is that the Chiefs are now finally built to be the kind of team that they’ve been trying to be. Jamaal Charles is clearly the most dynamic player on offense, but he’s a boom-and-bust runner. He’ll gain 25, then get stuffed in the backfield. Then he’ll get you 6 yards only to get stuck for two consecutive 1.5-yard gains. He’ll give you magic, but he won’t always keep the ball moving. That’s why Peyton Hillis is such an important addition. His power allows him to be a much more consistent 1^st-down runner. The development of Dexter McCluster as a reliable slot receiver provides another move-the-chains weapon to keep the ball in Kansas City hands.

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But, they still need to put it in the end zone.

In the preseason, the Chiefs looked good running the ball and have been overall effective moving down field. But, they still haven’t shown the ability to keep up in scoring. And, when experimenting with throwing the ball heavily against the Seahawks, they showed that they will have a hard time catching up in games if they get behind by more than one touchdown.

Therefore, Atlanta is going to be the perfect test for whether the Chiefs can put points on the board. Not only do the Falcons have two good receivers that are constant downfield threats, but the Chiefs are likely to be without their pass defense players. It’s looking like CB Brandon Flowers and S Kendrick Lewis will be out with injuries and Tamba Hali will be serving his one-game suspension.

Honestly, I think the Chiefs should hold out Lewis and Flowers – it is absolutely not worth it for them to aggravate their injuries to a point where they could potentially be lost for extended time. But, without them, the onus is going to be on the offense to keep up with Atlanta’s deadly air attack.

This matchup will tell us a lot about the 2012 Chiefs. It’s a test.

Let the games begin.

When I’m wrong, I say I’m wrong.

After his first two lackluster seasons, I was ready to write Dexter McCluster off. The selections of WR Devon Wylie and RB Cyrus Gray in the 2012 Draft seemed to indicate that the coaching staff felt the same. This preseason has proved me to be utterly wrong.

In April, looking back on McCluster’s career, I wrote:

[T]he numbers don’t lie. McCluster just doesn’t make big plays, which is his only purpose. RB Jackie Battle was a guy who was able to get what was already there with the ability to break a tackle or two. McCluster basically gets what’s there plus 3 yards due to his speed, but he won’t be breaking any tackles and he’ll get stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage for a few serious losses a game. Even Battle beat him as the KC running back with the biggest ground gain of the 2011 season with a 34-yarder against Denver.

The 2010 Scout’s Inc. report on McCluster said “he has good ball skills but will struggle when competing for the ball in a crowd. He needs a lot of work on his route running and setting defenders up and will settle into crowded zones at times rather than find a window for the quarterback to throw though.”

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Indeed that seemed to be his biggest struggle during his rookie season. Making the position switch from running back to slot receiver took longer than anticipated. Not only was it a new position, but he was learning to do it against NFL-quality defenders. In end, he had trouble consistently getting separation, which is a problem due to his small size overall. He ended the season with 21 receptions and 18 carries for a total of just 280 yards.

In 2011, Dex filled in at RB primarily because the Chiefs’ wretched depth was exposed after Jamaal Charles went down. The team was left with Thomas Jones and Jackie Battle – two guys who can pick up yardage through wide-open holes when they’re there, but neither is going to do anything special for you. Dex provided a spark, and was a popular option when the Chiefs knew they needed some dynamism. They gave him the ball 37 times on 3^rd down. But, although he was a better target than Battle in those situations, he was also inconsistent. On his 16 carries on 3^rd and 6+ yards, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry – just enough to not make it most of the time.

Still, he improved his overall skills and Scouts Inc. described him in their 2011 report as “explosive and extremely nimble, but lacks the great top-end speed to be a consistent home run threat. He is very elusive when he gets the ball in the open field and has excellent vision and instincts. He is a natural receiver out of the backfield as well as on downfield routes. He also shows good ball skills and the ability to reach out and pluck the ball away from his body.”

I for one was a bit worried when reports came out of training camp that McCluster was working exclusively with the wide receivers, because it seemed to me that they were forcing him back into a role that wasn’t his strong suit.

Then came this preseason.

McCluster currently leads the team in receptions with 13 receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown in the first three preseason games. Furthermore, he is has shown himself to be the most reliable target for Matt Cassel. Against the Seahawks, Cassel stalled in consecutive drives due to drops by generally sure-handed targets in Bowe, Moeaki and Baldwin. Then he turned to Dexter. In a long drive that would gain the starting offense its only touchdown, he targeted McCluster over and over again. Like most KC fans around the world, I was also shouting, “Just throw it to 22!” The week before, when Cassel was forced out of the pocket, in a situation that would have normally been a throw-away situation for him, he found McCluster open for a 1^st down.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

If McCluster can keep this up he can serve a role that is just as important as the #1 receiver on the team. As the league has gradually changed, one major evolution that few people talk about is the emergence of the slot receiver. The ability to make quick high-percentage throws to quick receivers matched up on linebackers has become the cornerstone of effective offenses. The Patriots pioneered this with Wes Welker. The Chiefs saw the effectiveness of a high-end slot receiver when they got carved to pieces by Sam Bradford’s security blanket, Danny Amendola, in Week 2 of the preseason.

Whatever you think about Matt Cassel, I think everyone can agree that he can benefit greatly from having a reliable outlet guy for short, high-percentage throws. Perhaps even more importantly, if opposing defenses begin to view McCluster as a major threat that needs to be covered by a safety or CB, it will both take pressure off Dwayne Bowe and draw defenders away from the running game.

He's even a KU fan! Showing good judgment uncanny intelligence is important to the Pioli regime. Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Chiefs may have had an overall uninspiring performance over the last two games, but that’s not the story for me. To me the biggest story of this preseason is the rise of the midget – McCluster’s transition from liability to security blanket, and I can’t wait to see how this goes with him moving into the regular season.

A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that the NFL preseason is like a bizarro world version of the NFL. Generally, it’s inconsistent play all around, which allows some players to look good while entire units look lost. Amid all that chaos, it’s really hard to judge anyone or anything accurately. The only way to get around it is with large sample sizes.

Two weeks into the preseason, I think there are only a few things you can assert confidently about the Chiefs:

1.)    Put very little stock in the fact that the Rams were able to get on the board quickly this weekend. As Paddy rightly pointed out, the best indicator of how teams are going to fare in preseason games isn’t the quality of the talent on each side, but rather which coach actually cares about winning the game. Many coaches couldn’t care less. They are throwing darts randomly at a board. “Hmm, ok, let’s see this guy in this play against a first-team defense and see what happens.” “Mmm, ok, let’s see what this guy can do.” They’re not game-planning, they’re not scouting matchups on the other team, because to do so would be a waste of valuable time coaching up players and refining general techniques.

There is an argument for trying to win preseason games if you are a very young team, and/or a team with lots of new players and you are trying to foster team-spirit and get the band of strangers in a winning attitude before the regular season starts. That is the exact situation St. Louis is in right now. Not only do they have more new players on their 90-man list than any other team in the NFL at 56, but they are also the youngest team in the league. Furthermore, Jeff Fisher is known to like to win preseason games. He has the second-best career record in the preseason among active head coaches at .608, beaten out only by Mike Shanahan with .681. Not to mention, the Rams got mauled 38-3 the week before by the similarly young and hopeless Indianapolis Colts. Fisher knew he had to get some good vibes going with his team, and give young quarterback Sam Bradford some confidence.

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

On both the big opening pass to slot receiver Danny Amendola, and the subsequent touchdown pass to TE Lance Kendricks, LB Jovan Belcher was covering. In both cases, I couldn’t really tell if it was zone coverage or man-to-man, because, quite frankly Belcher was so far off. Both times, a safety rushed in to try and break up the play but even Berry couldn’t get there in time. Now, I, of course, can’t prove that Fisher game-planned the first couple series or scouted the Chiefs. All I know is that if you were going to design plays to attack the Chiefs’ defense – that’s exactly how you would do it. By far our biggest defensive weakness is when Belcher is caught in pass coverage on fast, pass-catching tight ends or slot receivers. As stout as he is in the run game, he is just not fast enough to keep up with those guys. As such, Belcher is never put on those guys and is generally not even on the field on likely passing downs. Even in situations where Belcher would be on the field, the Chiefs would have likely adjusted from the beginning to put a safety on the TE or slot guy. The Chiefs started the game in standard base defensive sets and not only did the Rams’ play-calling target Belcher for big gains right off the bat, they ran the plays on 1^st down when he was likely to be on the field as a probable rushing down.

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I believe that often times when something happens where motive and opportunity meet, well, it’s no coincidence. They got what they wanted — two quick, injury-free scores, and an ego-boost for their QB. Immediately afterwards, their starters left the field feeling like they had won. And again, it’s not like it’s a crime to game plan in the preseason to try and show something against soft competition with nothing on the line. There’s a chance Brian Daboll was doing the same thing to boost Cassel’s confidence and make sure the Chiefs came out with a bang against the Cardinals last week.

2.)    Unless Matt Cassel has a total meltdown or gets injured, he is going to go into the regular season with strong momentum. Hidden among the general Chiefs’ shock about how good the Rams played against the Chiefs’ first-team D is the fact that Cassel has hit on 75 percent of his passes so far. Against the Rams, he even nailed the kind of play that we have seen very rarely out of him – flushed from the pocket on 3^rd and long, under heavy pressure, he chucked a dart to McCluster (his smallest target) in tight coverage for a first down.

3.)    In limited action, Charles has shown he still has it. Chiefs fans likely won’t be happy with Jamaal Charles’ recovery until he busts out a huge gainer, but, with the additional weapons that KC has accumulated, we no longer need him to be THE dynamic threat. Hillis has shown himself to be worth every penny, and the Chiefs have a plethora of receiving options. So far this preseason, Charles has had 6 rushes and 3 receptions for 6.4 yards per touch, including 9.7 yards per catch. If we are facing 2^nd and 4 every time by getting to ball to him, I don’t think anyone will be complaining even if he’s not streaking down field for big plays. But don’t worry, he will be.

Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

4.)    Glamorous he is not, but Brady Quinn looks like he can help us in a pinch. Look, he’s not Tyler friggin’ Palko, alright? Do I need to say anymore? Ok, fine. 12/19 151 yards 1 TD, 1 INT, good for a 83.44 passer rating. Amazing? No, but how good does a backup on a run-heavy defensive team need to be?

5.)    The Chiefs are going to have to make their hardest roster decision on the D-line this year. KC will probably only keep six or seven defensive linemen on their 53-man roster. I think it is safe to say that Glenn Dorsey, Dontari Poe and Tyson Jackson are staying with the team. So, who gets the remaining three spots? Allen Bailey is probably not going anywhere either as the team’s only true nickel rusher. That leaves two spots for a number of standout backups. Anthony Toribio currently holds the starting NT job and presumably the Chiefs want another passing-down rusher. Amon Gordon was the consistent jack-of-all-trades last year, but he hasn’t shown it so far in camp or in preseason games. Ropati Pitoitua has impressed in camp and has seen the field early preseason action (there’s also an unwritten NFL regulation stating that every team must carry at least one scary dude with an unpronounceable name). Brandon Bair has also shown some sparks in that role too, however.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

And finally, although it may not make the most sense at the moment, I like the idea of keeping Jerrell Powe. He has finally come on as a penetrating NT, which is what they want Poe, his homonymal brother, to become. He was consistently getting pressure in the last two games, and may also be effective as a rotational guy at the other positions. Who knows, with another year of development Powe might even turn out to be straight-up better than Poe, and these types of man-monsters don’t grow on trees. The painful part is that I know that at least a couple of these guys are going to be scavenged off the Chiefs as soon as they’re moved to the practice squad because there is a league-wide demand for such players and a DL-deprived team like the Broncos will be more than happy to take them off of our hands.

With their thumping 27-17 win (with the score 17-0 as the starters left the field), the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs have made their presence known, and while I always anticipated the Chiefs to be improved this year, it was clear that this game was all about surprise.

Suddenly, the national media have looked up from their Peyton Manning talking points and realized that there is another team in the AFC West – one far more likely to be playoff bound. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen said as much after the game via Twitter, “I’m starting to agree with #Chiefs fans – national media (ESPN included) has fallen asleep on KC. They may be team to beat in AFC West.”

It’s important to remember that the Chiefs and the Cardinals were considered to be evenly-matched teams before this game. In fact, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports had the Cards ranked 16^th in his July 25 power rankings, with the Chiefs at a lowly 22^nd, justified by a rote comment about Matt Cassel defining the team’s overall worth (the laziness of what passes for analysis by national football writers astounds me at times).

But, it wasn’t just surprising that the Chiefs were impressive, or even that they gave Arizona a shellacking – it’s how they dominated. WR Dwayne Bowe wasn’t on the field. Neither WR Steve Breaston, nor WR Jonathan Baldwin, who has been blowing up training camp, caught a single pass. RB Jamaal Charles had just three carries for 12 yards. OLB Tamba Hali had zero sacks, and NT Dontari Poe barely registered his presence. And the Chiefs dominated.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Cassel looked polished and comfortable, going 5/6 for 67 yards and a TD. RB Peyton Hillis, coming off a down year, looked fantastic running for 41 yards on four carries plus an 11-yard touchdown pass. WR/RB Dexter McCluster showed his skills as a matchup nightmare, reeling in three passes for 45 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense started with back-to-back 3-and-outs followed by an interception and tallied seven sacks on the night. In the limited amount of time that the Chiefs’ starters were out on the field, it was a massacre. In the late first quarter, I wrote in my notes “THIS IS CHILD’S PLAY!”

This game was also all about surprise because of the play-calling of OC Brian Daboll. I already love this man. Most notable was his fantastic call on 4^th and 3. The Chiefs lined up with heavy personnel in a goal-line formation. As the defense began stacking the box to charge in up the middle, Cassel motioned all the backs and TEs out wide making it a five-receiver set with an open backfield. This threw the defense into chaos as they tried to adjust to coverage in panic. While they were still yelling at each other, Cassel slid in behind C Rodney Hudson for a sneaky conversion. I cannot tell you how much I loved that play – great design, perfectly executed.

Ever since Daboll was hired, we at AA and across Chiefs Nation have been pondering what Daboll’s offence “based on matchups” really meant. I think we’re now beginning to figure that out. While I think this game confirmed my assertion that Hillis could end up the Chiefs’ biggest free agent acquisition, I’m already eating my words about WR Devon Wylie and RB Cyrus Gray replacing McCluster. Dex’s move to being a pure slot receiver already looks like it will pay off dividends in 2012. On two big plays, Daboll drew things up so that Baldwin – the #1 target – would force a one-on-one on McCluster, who has now definitely shown that he has improved his route-running and ability to get open.

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Most fundamentally, as Paddy pointed out, it’s clear the Chiefs generally grasp his offense and are executing it well. During the second half, GM Scott Pioli was in the press box talking about how the Chiefs now run like a well-oiled machine, getting plays in on time and communicating efficiently. As much as his image as a disciplinarian and ultra stickler for detail put me off, it is clear that the overall culture he is trying to install works. Players were always walking with confidence out there, and coaches seemed to be able to communicate well without wasting time with petty bickering.

The other big surprise is how deep the Chiefs seem to be at nose tackle. While Poe showed he still has a lot to learn, former practice-squader Anthony Toribio showed why he has taken the starting spot. He consistently got off blocks and single-handedly stuffed a running back in the backfield playing against the Cardinals’ starters. Meanwhile, Jerrel Powe was also impressive, getting penetration several times and even notching a sack from the nose tackle position. Poe clearly pushed the pocket on a few downs, but often times seemed to be playing patty-cake with the O-linemen – still unsure of how to use his hands effectively. He seemed to either be focusing too much on his hands or not enough. But, at the very least, he did get double-teamed nearly every time, which was a large part of why KC racked up so many sacks on the game.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The only negative surprises in this game were in the play of the Chiefs’ backup QBs. Although they are in a tight competition, neither played well. Still, neither arguably played worse than Arizona’s two quarterbacks competing over the starting job. I look forward to seeing Tanney bank some passes off the uprights for a touchdown in Game 2 of the preseason.

Generally speaking, it was hard to come away with anything but positive vibes after this game. The Chiefs are back with a vengeance this year and they have shown that they can beat you in any number of different ways. Wherever you are weakest, that’s where we will strike, because we have the tools to get you anywhere, anytime.

A friend of mine was at a panel discussion recently where a few NFL players were around to answer questions from fans. My friend asked Rams RB Steven Jackson what his philosophy is when it comes to hitting his teammates in training camp. Without hesitation he said, “They ain’t my teammates until week one.”

Patriots T Nate Solder was also there and continued the thought, “If you don’t go full steam, someone will take your job.”

Those two quotes perfectly reflect what training camp is all about. Together, they capture the kill-or-be-killed mentality that is in these players’ minds, even as they’re beating up on guys they are sharing a locker room, possibly a dorm room and several meals with. For now.

A few players are safe, a few others can probably count on remaining on the roster at least, but most of 90 men at St. Joe’s have to fight. For the bottom 68, these next few weeks will be their best chance to prove their worth. For the bottom 45, this will likely be their only chance – 37 will be cut and the best eight will receive practice-squad offers.

Although this keeps them on the team, it all but ensures that they will have no shot of playing this season unless there is a catastrophic series of injures at their position. They will spend every practice this season trying to quickly learn a few plays and formations that the Chiefs’ opponents run that week, and will be trying to emulate those for the starters’ benefit. They will not spend time learning the Chiefs playbooks or breaking down game film. They will essentially be human tackle bags.

The preseason is a strange time because of this dynamic. On one hand, it’s the first glimpse of football us crazed fans have seen since the first week of February. On the other hand, it’s not real football.

When the starters are on the field, they are essentially testing their chemistry and trying not to get hurt. When the backups come on, it’s like some sort of disorganized Thunderdome.

From the fan perspective, it’s great because it’s the only chance we get to see our depth players in action. From the starter’s perspective, it’s awful because they get little pay and no glory for essentially the same risk of injury. For those fighting for a roster spot, it is the Coliseum.

I say all of this as a drawn out preface to everything else I am going to be talking about for the rest of the preseason. We have to understand that everything we see from backup and auditioning players in preseason games is like a peek into bizarro world. You can’t take it for face value, particularly at the quarterback position. Opposing backup DB’s are bad, but the 2^nd and 3^rd-string O-lines are just as bad. QB’s both have to dance around behind comically dysfunctional blocking while throwing to receivers slicing through similarly discombobulated coverage.

Nonetheless, through this crystal ball we must look to determine whether or not we think these players are worthy of the NFL – a league where the gameplay is totally different than this preseason silliness.

I looked back at all of Rickie Stanzi’s 2011 snaps to see how he did in preseason bizarro world. Overall, he did not bad – especially considering the truncated offseason programs. But, if he is going to beat out Brady Quinn and put some heat on Matt Cassel, he is going to have to improve quite a bit.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Pre-Snap, Pocket Presence

Stanzi was a known for his quickness at Iowa, and routinely made great throws off of scrambles and bootlegs. Posting a 40-yard dash time of 4.93 at the Combine isn’t bad for a QB, but that doesn’t qualify as speed in the NFL. In both the 2011 preseason film I watched from him and the reports I’ve seen so far from 2012 training camp, Stanzi has been off target on the run. At this level, DB’s are simply able to keep up with receivers, even if the QB extends the play. If he is going to continue to make this a key part of his game, he has to get a lot better at it.

He also had trouble sensing the rush last preseason – he either panicked and got rid of the ball unnecessarily or held it too long. In his defense, our backup O-linemen played awful.

He also seemed to be in over his head in making pre-snap adjustments. Cordell at The Film Room (a must-follow for you Twitter people out there) said, “Thing I liked about #Chiefs Tyler Palko was pre-snap…in preseason rarely ran a bad play…Stanzi was opposite, plays routinely blown up.” That’s right, when you’re being negatively compared to Palko, we have a problem.

But, that is what I often heard last year – that Palko was more confident and comfortable running the offense and making good decisions. Therefore, he started over Ricky. Still, the fact that Palko couldn’t throw a ball accurately more than seven yards should have also come into play in that assessment.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Technique

I’m not QB expert, but I saw Stanzi several times making the type of weird side-armed throws that Brett Farve and Tony Romo are known for. If you can be accurate with them, then it’s no problem. But, usually it is one of those college habits that needs to be unlearned as the player adjusts to exponentially better defenders.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Decision-Making, Throw Power

Against the Rams last year, Stanzi really put it together. Granted, St. Louis had one of the worst defenses on the NFL last year and Stanzi was playing their backups. Still, he showed poise and good decision-making. Although he definitely made some bad reads in the game, he diagnosed some good throws and executed them quickly. He relied heavily on TE’s and receivers going down the middle. My real concern was his arm strength, however. He took a couple of shots with long bombs, but both were lobbed as if they’d been fired from a mortar. When I looked back at his college tape, I saw much the same thing. All of his deep balls seemed to be from extremely high arcs. Furthermore, he threw a few balls that were a bit wobbly even on intermediate routes.

This to me means that he has roughly the same physical ceiling as Matt Cassel, which means he’s automatically out of the elite range of NFL QB’s even if develops all his other skills. However, if he can get better at all of the other things, there’s no reason he can’t be a very productive quarterback in this league. If he can outplay Quinn and Cassel with good, quick decision-making and accurate passing, we may even see him on the field this season. With big receivers and a run game that sets up play action well, he may not need to fire lasers deep.

What’s more, if he can get really good and fast at the short throws, he has a chance to be successful in the same way that Kurt Warner was able to be in his comeback as a Cardinal. This would mean that Stanzi will have to act and think like a veteran quick, but it’s certainly not impossible.

Either way, there are few players that I am more interested to see out there on the field for this round of bizarro world football than Ricky Stanzi.

With the Chiefs starting their first practices on Friday, the 2012 season has for all intents and purposes begun.

With any luck, by this time next week we will know more about how the 2012 Chiefs will look, play and prosper and you will no longer have to read articles rehashing past moves or talking about what might happen once the season kicks off. That’s right, ladies and gents. Very soon, there will be some real football to talk about.

But until then, let’s take one last look back at the 204 days that we have been without Chiefs football since we rained on Tebow’s playoff parade in Week 17. After all, back then the starting quarterback was Kyle Orton, everyone thought we were going to draft David DeCastro and Peyton Manning was still a Colt.

Best Arrest

Although Al Davis, sadly, has left us, his legacy lives on in a number of absurd debilitating moves that have kept the Oakland Raiders uncompetitive for a record stretch of time. One of Davis’ recent hits was drafting Alabama LB Ronaldo McClain 8^th overall in 2010 and signing him to a (pre-CBA) $40-million contract. On top of being an overall disappointment – even more so than his cousin LeRon McClain’s stint with the Chiefs – apparently, a fun night out for him can be described as “third-degree assault, menacing, reckless endangerment and discharging a firearm inside the city limits.” Due to all of that silliness, McClain was sentenced to 180 days in jail. Despite his mediocre play on the field, he is still the Raiders’ starting middle linebacker (for now) and it appears this sentence will keep him out of the whole 2012 season.

He's a lot cuter when he's not shooting a gun by your head. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

But don’t feel too bad for the guy; while in jail he’ll probably still be making around $5 million in guaranteed money.

Best Roster Move

While there could arguably be a debate over who the Chiefs’ best offseason acquisition was, clearly the best improvement in single position came with the signing of Tackle Eric Winston and the banishment of Barry Richardson to the St. Louis Rams (who apparently hate their quarterback). It is truly rare when a team is able to turn their weakest position into one of their strongest, but that is what KC pulled off this year. In addition to getting the guy that is quite possibly the best right tackle in football, adding Winston also instantly made the Chiefs O-line one of the strengths of the team. After years of god awful blocking, we now have one of the better units in the league with bookend tackles and a fairly deep bunch of young players in the interior.

Best League Scheduling Oversight

Due to rules governing prime time games, the Chiefs in effect get two bye weeks this season. In addition to their Week 7 bye, the Chiefs have an 11-day break between their Week 9 Thursday Night Football game against the Chargers and a Monday Night Football game against the Steelers.

Best Throw-Down Move in the Division

I’m not going to lie, while this sentiment is in no way based in any type of rationality, I love that Peyton Manning has joined the division after snubbing the Chiefs. Is this objectively good for the Chiefs’ chances of winning the division? No. Does it motivate me even more to crush the Donkeys? Yes.

My only complaint is that the Chiefs don’t get to face off against Manning’s merry band of mules until Week 12, and, in all likelihood, he will have broken his neck seven times by then. On the other hand, if his bionic neck holds up that long, it’s very likely that Week 12 is going to be a great game – one that will have major divisional and playoff implications. Although I have been watching Peyton carve up defenses for the last decade, I can’t help but mentally taunt Denver every day until that game comes. This year is our year. Bring it on. Throw-down time.

Best Offseason Prediction

I totally said that we should draft Dontari Poe and everyone complained about the suggestion and in the end we did draft him. So there.

Worst Offseason Storyline

Arrowhead Anxiety-gate. Although many of you have likely forgotten about this by now, the 2011 offseason started with a stunning expose by the Star’s Kent Babb about how Scott Pioli scared the bejesus out of most people who work for the Chiefs. Todd Haley believed he was wiretapped. He wasn’t alone. Employee turnover was extreme. Old people were swept out the door. Pioli picked up trash he found and creepily presented it at board meetings in evidence bags. Everyone, including business-side employees, was forbidden from getting a peek at anything going on at the practice field.

Not only was this bad press for the Chiefs, this was the kind of story that shook at the very base of all of our feelings about the Pioli regime. Sure, he’s been very effective, but he just might be an exiled dictator in an elaborate disguise. The fact that the publication of the story was followed by increasing rumors and comments by league figures that this is why many players choose to avoid Kansas City left a sour taste in my mouth. Was it Pioli and his reputation that made Peyton Manning decide to not even visit with the team, despite its playoff-ready roster? Was Todd Haley batnuts crazy because Pioli’s management style turned him into a paranoid schizophrenic? We’ll probably never know.

Worst Moment of Chiefs Fandom

Cassel getting booed at a celebrity softball game. Really, people? I’m not saying the guy’s a great player, but wait until he throws his 5^th check-down in a row or manages to toss a no-look interception on a screen pass while in field-goal range with the game on the line. Even then, I’d prefer you all to react the same way that I, as any gentlemen, acts in this situation. Let a single tear roll down your cheek, physically assault someone in the immediate vicinity and order another beer (note: I only cry because of the adrenaline).

Worst Overall Change

The uniform design. Look, it’s not that bad and it seems like the material is going to be a lot better, but I agreed with some commenter who said they look like red Browns jerseys. Now I can’t get imagine out my head and all I can think is “yuck” whenever I see them (I do dig the gloves though).

Ok, yes. As some of you may remember, a couple of months ago I posted a piece called “The Top 5 Stories You’ll Be Sick Of By August” and included among them was whether or not Bowe would get an extended deal before preseason. But, since we know that final decision today, there was no way around commenting on it.

The deadline for Bowe to sign a long-term deal has now passed. Unless the Chiefs are holding off on making an announcement, Bowe will be signing the one-year franchise tag and this is the best-case scenario for the team.

Although the signing indicates that there will be no more negotiations on extending Bowe this season, it also makes perfect sense for a number of reasons.

1.) The Chiefs Hold All the Cards

First and foremost, from a business perspective, one simple rule is that you don’t guarantee money deep into the future unless you have to – we’re not the Oakland freakin’ Raiders. Currently, the Chiefs hold all the cards and cannot be pressured to deal. Although we don’t yet know what Bowe is asking, unless it is an amazingly humble offer, the Chiefs have every reason to walk away from it. Although the Chiefs desperately need Bowe’s production on the field, they know that Bowe can’t afford to hold out into the season if he has any hopes of a big free agency payday. Bowe hasn’t totally shaken his reputation as a troublemaker with a bit of a freelancing streak. If Todd Haley did one good thing for this team, it was reining in Bowe’s ego, but if Dwayne starts going all Ochocinco on the Chiefs, his value will plummet. Obviously, the Chiefs know this.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

To get the generous, long-term deal he wants, the best thing that Bowe can do for himself in 2012 is by having the best, most drama-free season of his career. As it happens, that exactly what the Chiefs want out of him too, and they figure it’s best to keep the carrot hanging in front of him. Even if Bowe were to hold out, the Chiefs are stacked enough offensively to be able to handle his absence for a while. Charles and Moeaki are back and Baldwin will have a full offseason to prepare this season. He has similar physical characteristics to Bowe, and could try to play his role in the offense in a pinch.

2.) This Gives the Chiefs More Time to Evaluate Baldwin

As mentioned above, Jon Baldwin has the potential to fill in for Bowe, but so far he has shown very little to indicate he is ready. He made a few beautiful catches throughout the season, but he was nowhere to be found in most games, finishing with just 21 receptions in 2011. However, as many noted, the silver lining of Bowe’s absence at voluntary workouts was that Baldwin was getting lots of experience as the starter. Of course, we have no idea if he’s actually doing anything right at these practices, as this is the part of the offseason with the least transparency and the most hyperbolic positivity. I’ve heard he is working hard, studying hard and showing heart on the field, but, then again, what do you expect them to say?

If Baldwin really comes on this season, it gives the Chiefs even more leverage with Bowe – particularly if Devon Wylie shows something and we get consistent production out of Steve Breaston. Again, we don’t yet know what Bowe is asking, but I imagine it is more than the $9.515 million he is making with the franchise tag this year. The always-insightful Cordell of The Film Room tweeted out today, “Matt Cassel and Flowers new deals paid out nearly 15 mil each in first year…I can see Bowe thinking he is at or above that level.” If that is the case, then the Chiefs will be saving money this year and maybe even next year.

Next year, Bowe’s franchise number would be $11.418 million, which is still less than he would make in the first year of a long-term deal – big first-year bonuses are pro forma with these sorts of things. We should re-franchise Bowe if Baldwin improves, but it is clear that Bowe will remain the starter. If they think that JB can transition into the starter in 2013, then it makes sense to rent Bowe for just one more year. If it looks like Baldwin will remain a complementary piece, then we pay Bowe long-term.

Mandatory Credit: John O

Either way, we still have Breaston for four more years on a relatively cheap deal with only $9.5 million in total guarantees, Baldwin costs us about $7.5 million per year and Devon Wylie, if he is all that he is made out to be, will be a steal for his $2.6 million over four years. This means that, despite the fact this is going to be a run-first team, the Chiefs can easily afford to re-sign Bowe without over-valuing the position group. His deal would likely even out such that we would be paying around $20 million annually for receivers overall. Given the growing importance of the passing game, that’s not too bad. By the way, the Chiefs are currently $16.548 million under the cap.

In short, don’t panic.

Bowe’s not going anywhere unless the Chiefs are prepared to part with him, and we can afford to lock him up long-term without breaking the bank. Pioli played this one smart.

So, after Paddy put together a great piece on the crucial offseason question: “If Chiefs Were Characters from the Wire,” I felt it necessary to move this important thought-experiment beyond the realist, Dickensian epic about the failures of city institutions to the world of fantasy. If there are any of you out there who still haven’t gotten hooked on Game of Thrones, get on it (but watch the first two episodes before passing judgment; the first one is a bit scatter-brained).

Furthermore, if you aren’t acquainted with the show, STOP READING THIS NOW, this is going to be chalk-full of spoilers.

Tamba Hali as Sandor Clegane, “The Hound”

"I smell Philip Rivers."

Tamba Hali is a big, scary, not-particularly-pretty man. He has been loyal to the Chiefs through leadership changes, which have included a variety of eccentric characters on the throne. Although he terrifies everyone around him, everyone that serves at his side realizes he is a man of honor who lives to massacre quarterbacks – just don’t get fire anywhere near him or he’ll go all Frankenstein on you.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Todd Haley as Joffry Baratheon

"We shall go forth on 4th down a 4th time!"

Egotistical, sadistic, deluded and an awful tactician when it counts. On the plus side, um … cool crossbow?

David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

Matt Cassel as Daenerys Targaryen

"You're not just going to throw out my appendix after the surgery, right? Whew, what a waste that would have been."

Essentially sold in a marriage-trade that was meant to allow the Chiefs to reconquer Westeros, Cassel spent 2009 powerless, being repeatedly raped behind a horrid offensive line with no friends or allies to throw to. But, after facing down trials and tribulations, Cassel grew in strength and confidence, giving birth to dragons and … breaking his hand and watching his division rival ride out his team to the lost year’s best victories … this metaphor needs some work.

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Casey Wiegmann as Ser Rodrik Cassel (absolutely no relation to Matt Cassel)

"Roadkill is the new black."

Old, wizened and dependable. If it wouldn’t have gotten in the way for Casey’s gameplay, these two men would have undoubtedly shared the same hairstyle as they held down the fort defending the House of Stark. However, despite their reliability, at some point, it was time for some young gun to behead them both.

Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

Jon McGraw as Tywin Lannister

"I just one deep back safetied your mom."

Although respected and decorated, these veterans have been outfoxed by younger, faster competition. However, with the game on the line, these old hands know how to pull out a victory.

Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Dwayne Bowe as Bronn

"Right back at you Cassel. No, I don't think I'm going to aim for your 'general vicinity' with this one."

Not everyone likes him, his style or his attitude. But, everyone agrees, this man is damn effective at what he does.

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Scott Pioli as Petyr Baelish “Little Finger”

"As a matter of fact, yes, I do run a whore house."

The ultimate man behind the curtain, Pioli has used his suspicious seduction and mischief to build a winning team in record time. Everyone has to watch their back around this man.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Dontari Poe as Gregor Clegane, “The Mountain”

"Ok, yes. I may have eaten one or two practice squad kickers. But, if you don't want me to eat special teamers, why do you leave them lying around all the time?!"

He is big, strong and furious. He can behead a horse with a single blow, and yet we’ve seen him do little more than lose jousts to effeminate challengers and guard a burnt-out prison camp. Will his amazing strength and power actually come to use on the battlefield?

Douglas Jones-US PRESSWIRE

Romeo Crennel as Tyrion Lannister

Seriously, why has no one made a similar mural for Crennel yet?

A master strategist with a heart of gold. While he has rarely gotten credit for his work, Crennel has been an essential part of the family and saved it from total destruction at the end of the season.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Chan Gailey as Balon Greyjoy

"I left potato salad in the workroom fridge. I will take back what is mine."

What, you don’t see the resemblance? Aside from that, these two are bitter men who live in their cold miserable bitterness in the North, waiting to strike back revenge in Week 2.

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Derrick Johnson as Khal Drogo

"My helmet protects you."

The Horse King will hurt you, and he will do it in the most badass way available to him. But, please, Chiefs medical personnel, do not resort to black magic to cure his infections.

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Barry Richardson as Samwell Tarly

"Time for my signature move -- Contagious Incompetence!"

Fat, whiney and utterly useless. I hope the White Walkers got ‘im at the end of last season.

Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

For many of you reading this, the prospect of taking a job or traveling for an extended period of time far from Chiefs nation mid-season is likely terrifying.

Fear not.

As an experienced expat fan, I am here to tell you that in the 21^st century it is not only easy to keep up with your team, but that the process of being a remote fan can be uniquely enriching. If it looks like you will be out of country for part or all of this season, here are some guidelines to staying in touch with the red and gold.

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1.) Pick your viewing locations with extreme discretion.

Chances are that if you are somewhere in Central America or Western Europe, there will be cable or satellite packages available that will get you most or all NFL games. But, if there’s no cheap way to pipe Arrowhead into your TV, you are likely going to have to find a place outside of your home away from home to watch the game. While there are inevitably plenty of places where games can be watched, finding a nice fit between you and your venue can be tricky. Basically, here are your options:

Sports Bars/Pubs

Unless you are in a remote village somewhere, chances are you are going to be somewhere near a pub that invariably hosts tons of expats jonesing for some of their home country sports. But, these places can be very hit-or-miss. In my experience, the most prevalent sports pubs are British-dominated joints where rugby and soccer take precedent over all else. If your NFL game of choice clashes with any major European sporting event, you are going to be out of luck. Even if it doesn’t, you will likely have to repeatedly explain to obnoxious rugby fans why “American footballers” wear “crash helmets,” why there are numbers painted on the “pitch” and why the “trainers” aren’t wearing fitted shirts and Prada glasses miming outrage on the side of the field, but are instead decked out in poorly fitting athletic gear mumbling stoically into headsets.

Casinos

If you are in a country that allows gambling, you will probably be able to find the game on at your nearest casino, however, again, these places don’t always provide the best atmosphere. I watched Super Bowl XLII at a mafia-run casino in St. Petersburg, Russia and it was actually a memorable, if odd, good time. Due to the time difference, it was a 3 a.m. kickoff and the casino bar was full of Giants fans that had been loitering around drinking since the early evening. It was a good mix of displaced compatriots but I lost all of my beer money after spending halftime at the roulette tables.

Embassy People

If all else fails, befriend some civil servants working (in theory) to serve your interests in your country of residence. If not the diplomats themselves, the marines guarding the embassies almost always have the hookup for American sports channels in their quarters. Note: This will also expose you to AFN, the Armed Forces Network, a channel thrown together by the Pentagon to bring U.S. TV to American troops, primarily those serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. AFN can be its own sort of absurd treat, because, instead of normal commercials, the breaks in the game are filled with comical public service announcements urging grunts not to traffic drugs, pillage the homes of locals, sniff paint, or shake their babies when home on leave.

NFL Game Pass

If for whatever reason these options don’t shake out, there is always NFL Game Pass (A.K.A. the best thing that ever happened to me). For $250, you basically get every NFL game live and on demand with DVR controls. It even throws in the NFL Network and games from the past two seasons, and has a “condensed viewing” setting that skips over all of the empty time in a game, meaning you can breeze through a typical match in about an hour. Plus, if the time difference is inhospitable, you can always watch the game after the fact with the commercials already removed. Best of all — no box. It’s all over the internet, meaning you can log in to your account wherever you have a strong internet connection and/or a big screen. Also, even if your internet is a bit weak or inconsistent, it automatically increases and decreases the resolution to suit your connection. At its strongest, it puts out pretty good HD.

Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

2.) Try to start a Chiefs fan club in your country.

Because, why not? One of the nice things about being far away from Chiefs Nation is that it makes it much easier to be the biggest fans around. Trying to get KC fans together can be a great way to meet people and allows you to more easily overpower fans of less awesome sports in the pubs.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

3.) Convert foreigners to the magic of football.

This is in some ways tied to #2, but actually one of the most rewarding things about being a fan abroad is the ability to proselytize and convert infidels. Over the past few years, I have gotten dozens of non-Americans to watch football, and even created another KC superfan – a German dude who now never misses a Chiefs game, despite the fact the games often come on at 1 a.m. or later Monday morning local time. In the same ways that people talk about parenting being magical, being someone’s gateway to the sport can be a lot of fun. All they know about it is what you tell them. They are like piles of wet clay. You can mold them to love who you love and hate who you hate. Due to my efforts, the Red Army is growing internationally and will soon sweep the world (please do not use this quote out of context).

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4.) Being an expat fan further engrains your fandom into your identity.

Having lived out of the U.S. for most of the last seven years, my ties to the Chiefs have actually grown, to a large degree because it keeps me feeling American. When you are separated from your native culture for a long time, you realize how much it means to be a true fan, to be a part of a larger society. In order to keep my hold of my tomahawk roots, I have become the designated Chiefs Superfan for the ESPN Football Today podcast (the best NFL show around, btw) and write this column because doing so makes me feel like I always have one foot planted firmly in my homeland.

I should preface this post by saying that I do not reside within the cerebral cortex of Romeo Crennel and Brian Daboll. I do not know that they will do any or all of these things, but I do think that if they don’t at least try some of them, we will have missed some opportunities this coming season.

1.) DeQuan Menzie as MLB.

One of the many sets that Crennel likes to run in pass-defense sub packages is loading up on D-backs and replacing one ILB – Belcher, obviously – with a safety to cover any RBs coming out of the flat or TEs on crossing patterns. Throughout the 2011 season this was almost always McGraw – a veteran with good instincts who is a good tackler and will be read his man well. This is one of the many packages that was great at confusing and disrupting opposing offenses, and led to brilliant defensive victories like the one over the undefeated Packers.

However, it was also exploited at times with teams audibling to a dive play and running a power back straight up at McGraw. While he is normally a good open-field tackler, he got trucked on a couple of those because he just doesn’t have the body mass to make a thud against a big back bursting through the hole. Enter DeQuan Menzie.

John David Mercer-US PRESSWIRE

Menzie comes from the hard-nosed Alabama defense where he often played close to the line. While he’s not huge, he is on the heavy side for a safety, and showed on tape that he could power through wide receiver blocks and would likely do well as both a mean guy following RBs and TEs in the short passing game, and also standing tall against backs plowing through the hole. The case has been made that Eric Berry would be good in that role, but I think he is greatest as an asset to us on passing downs with his ability to take over center field and play the deep ball.

2.) Three-headed RB Monster: Jamaal Charles-Peyton Hillis-Dexter McCluster

With the Chiefs’ top three RBs, they have three very different and complementary ball-carriers. Charles has the speed and vision to break big ones anytime. Hillis is a pounder who can get away from you if he gets a bit of space, and McCluster has the spark to hit the hole fast and can make things happen in the open field. Having all three of these guys on the field simply presents too many plays to contemplate.

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If Daboll fields Charles, Hillis, McCluster, Moeaki and Boss, what package will the defense put out there? The fact is that there is no right answer because with those guys, you could do some power running with Hillis as a lead blocker for Charles/McCluster or you could do also sorts of sophisticated pitches, reverses and screens. Or, you could motion a TE out wide and throw from it. It’s hard to imagine a better goal-line set; the Chiefs will inevitably find favorable matchups. Daboll has made a name for himself being a mad scientist in drawing up plays. I have a feeling he is going to have fun with these guys.

3.) Splitting Hillis out wide

As I mentioned in my feature on Hillis a few weeks back, I noted he is really much more than the plodding pounder he is reputed to be. In fact, he is a great pass-catcher:

His one drop among 61 catches in 2010 made him the third most consistent receiving RB in the league. Most importantly for QB Matt “Panic Toss” Cassel, Hillis hauled in 90 percent of all passes thrown at him in 2010 – on target or not. Then, he had 453 yards after the catch.

Granted, Daboll was often using Hillis as a wideout primarily because Cleveland had/has quite possibly the worst wide-receiving corps in the league. Still, this guy has hands, great body control, good ups and holds on to the ball. Watch 2:10 of these highlights for this amazing catch from 2010 against the Falcons – it’s reminiscent of Moeaki’s stunning grab against the 49ers that year (he’s got another great one at 2:55). Heck, it might even be interesting to see him lined up at TE, despite the fact we already have two good ends.

4.) Poe at DE, in coverage

While we still don’t totally know what we are going to get out of Poe at this point, we do know that Crennel is going to move him around. Initially billed as a run-stuffer, Crennel has been trying to coach him up as a pass rusher. If he develops as both, I think the Chiefs will want to move him to whatever part of the opposing offensive line is the weakest. If that team has a Barry Richardson on their starting roster, we will find him and put a monster of a man right on top of him. Also, given Poe’s ability to crash down and take out blockers, he could be a great lead-man for an unbalanced blitz. Let him cut down his double team on one of the edges as Houston, Hali and DJ rush through to get at the QB.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Another thing that Crennel was successful with in New England was getting Vince Wilfork to step back in to zone coverage every now and then. It sounds crazy – and it is – but opposing offenses never see it coming. Heck, Wilfork even had two interceptions last year. While I don’t expect Poe to be a ball hawk or to be able to cover Gronkowski man-to-man or any silliness like that, using him this way would still have some major benefits. 1.) Having him step off suddenly puts the opposing offensive line in disarray up the middle in a way that can be exploited as they figure out whom to shift to and block. 2.) If you’re worried about a speedy TE being able to pick up too much speed off the line and want to slow him down has he crosses through the middle, Poe putting his 349-pound shoulder into him will sure accomplish that.

This week, I went back to watching the Chiefs’ 2011 game tape. While I had been primarily focused on losses to examine areas the Chiefs needed to improve, I had been saving one particular game as a snack somewhere down the road.

Beating the undefeated Packers was great. Stuffing the Donkeys to force them to enter the playoffs on a three-game losing streak made me happy. But, nothing could compare to the emotions I felt when watching our team rise from the grave in Week 8 on Monday Night Football to take the division lead against the San Diego Chargers.

Triumphant Zombie Chiefs they were. It was the exact midpoint of the season and it looked like the Chiefs were about to shake off their crap injury luck and humiliating start and go back to being the AFC Champs that they were.

For starters, what made the game great was that it was one of the rare times that it was absolutely clear that all Chiefs fans believed. Arrowhead has always been one of the loudest, most inhospitable places to play for visiting teams, but our fans took it to a new level that night. Even watching it on TV from tens of thousands of miles away, I could see the difference. After playing like the worst team in the sport for the first two and a half games of the season, the Chiefs had brought themselves to a place where they had to play a game against a rival on national television at home for the division lead. On Halloween. There is simply no better setup than that.

I also had forgotten previously just how good the Chiefs-Chargers rivalry is. Of course, I personally despise the Raiders and even the Broncos much more vehemently, but that comes mostly out of the irrational, non-competitive parts of my brain. Now, with a hall-o-fame QB at the helm in Denver, all the focus has been on them and the race to beat them out for the 2012 title. But, in all that talk, it is forgotten that the Chiefs and the Chargers have together won seven of the last nine division championships. That means that Oakland and Denver together have shared just 22 percent of the division titles over the last nine years. It’s anyone’s guess how strong the Chargers will be this year, but one thing is clear: for the last decade, KC and SD have owned the title.

Unfortunately, although KC had achieved an impressive three-game winning streak to get them to that game, that place in time, the offense indeed did play most of the game like the undead. The Chargers far outgained the Chiefs, and the difference in the game came down to capitalizing on San Diego mistakes. Still, there was some magic in the air in Arrowhead on Halloween. Dark magic.

First off, Tamba Hali didn’t just play like a man possessed. He was a man possessed. Whatever evil spirit took hold of him was just toying with the Chargers’ offensive tackles all game. He forced more than half a dozen penalties, had two sacks, a timely forced fumble, and overall terrorized the bejesus out of San Diego blockers.

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Cassel hit some really pretty passes.

Despite all of that, the Chiefs played a really poor middle part of the game. A signature of the Todd Haley era, the offense constantly struggled to get plays and substitutions in on time. This led to a comedy of errors at the end of the first half, in which the Chargers were on the run but KC was just far too discombobulated to do anything right. Eventually, everyone just scratched their heads and kicked a field goal. By the end of the game, the color commentators were repeatedly using the phrase “Poor Matt Cassel” as our beleaguered QB was having to basically organize the bloody mess himself.

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Although I didn’t know this when I watched the game live, when McGraw went out down with an injury and Donald Washington went in to replace him, this spelled doom for the Chiefs. This time around, I knew automatically that this would be the turning point. Sure enough, San Diego came from 10 points behind to tie the Chiefs in the second half. After being totally ineffective in the passing game in the first half, once there was only one competent Chiefs safety on the field, SD hit big play after big play to drag themselves back into the game.

The game was also largely a microcosm of Jonathan Baldwin’s rookie year. He hauled in the catch of his NFL career (thus far) — a beautiful deep pass for a TD — but he also committed several mental errors. He dropped two balls, both of which hit him in the hands, and the second one bounced off of his breadbasket and into the arms of a San Diego defender for an interception. It was a Jekyll and Hyde game for what has so far been a Jekyll and Hyde receiver.

As much as Hali was playing out of his mind, when the Chargers were able to neutralize his pass rush (usually through unnoticed penalties), Rivers was as comfortable as if he had returned to his mother’s womb. Houston had not yet arrived to the scene.

And, while I am all for getting Houston to develop and mature into a legit pass-rushing threat, I am still not convinced that is what he is just yet. Three of his 5.5 sacks in 2011 came against the Bears – a bad quarterback behind a bad offensive line (seriously, Caleb Hanie finished with a worse 2011 passer rating than Tyler Palko).

This brings me to my next disturbing realization while watching this game. Like our match against the Packers, in this game, San Diego was playing like absolute dogcrap 80 percent of the time. They had nine penalties in the first half, they turned over the ball four times and missed an easy field goal. Given all of that, the Chiefs should have beaten them by 20. Instead, we beat them by a field goal in overtime.

In part, this is just how the Chiefs play. We keep every game close and work to go the extra mile by the end of the game. But that won’t cut it in the playoffs. Playoff teams beat their opponents into submission when they have the chance and are able to run their offense like a machine. While I have no doubt the Chiefs will be able to secure the division title again in 2012, this roster still has yet to prove that it can be dominant.

That is why I think it is important to remember the Zombie Chiefs and remember where we are coming from. We are not just coming off of an off year that was plagued with injures. No. We were a dead team that clawed its way back into the division race as ugly as it was, and played with every ounce of its potential to come within a single blocked field goal of the postseason again.

We need to remember that hunger of a zombie team that had been written off by the league. We need to remember what it was like to be the fans of a team standing behind the walls of the Alamo on Halloween, defending its title like champs when everyone expected it to fold. I know there has been a lot of gloating and optimism among myself and others on this site for all of the shrewd offseason additions and the swift recovery of our wounded stars. But, if we are going to take this team’s destiny to its full potential, we need to remember where we came from.

The 2012 season for me is just a continuation of our rise from the grave. The media can talk about Peyton Manning all they want. Tamba will be feeding on his brain and JC will be dancing in his end zone before long. To steal a motto from the Greyjoys, “What is dead can never die.” Long live the Zombie Chiefs!

First off, an explanation of how I am approaching this: I don’t look at this list as the 10 most productive players necessarily, but rather how important they are to the team and how much their loss would be felt. This is not a list of the Chiefs best players. A way of looking at it is, “who could we least afford to lose to a season-ending injury.”

1.) OLB Tamba Hali

This one may be a shocker right out of the gates. I know many people would put RB Jamaal Charles as the most important player to the Chiefs if they want to make a playoff run, but I get to differ. The Chiefs still managed to come within a blocked field goal of the playoffs without JC (and a whole lot else) last season. The Chiefs still had the 15^th best rushing attack last year behind Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster – not an inspiring bunch.

However, the Chiefs also only had 29 sacks (3^rd least in the league) – 12 of which were Tamba Hali. Hali also probably deserves an assist on most of the other sacks that Chiefs players racked up, as opposing teams shifted their pass blocking to eliminate the pressure from #91. OLB Justin Houston should continue to up his game this year, but it’s hard to know how many sacks he would have gotten in 2011 if teams weren’t so focused on Hali. One thing we know for sure – if Hali goes down, our pass rush will be less than half as effective as it is when he is on the field.

Tamba Hali tackles Chiefs -- err -- Broncos Quarterback Kyle Orton, forcing a fumble in the process.John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Furthermore, the AFC West quarterbacking got a heck of a lot better this year. We won’t be playing against FB Tim Tebow twice a year, Rivers will surely bounce back from his worst season on record, and we won’t be so lucky as to catch Carson Palmer straight off the couch. We’re going to be playing Peyton Manning, Rivers and Palmer in late-season games for the division title. We will need Hali for that, hands down.

2.) SS Eric Berry

To my great surprise, the Chiefs have not addressed the team’s dreadful safety depth with anything more than a 5^th-round CB who projects to the position and a handful of low-level journeymen and UFA’s. Berry going down last year spelled doom for the Chiefs defensive backfield, despite the fact that we have very talented corners. McGraw is dependable as a smart, slow veteran, but with both he and Berry out of the line up, Kendrick Lewis cannot make up the difference. The idea that Donald Washington might see the field for anything other than special teams this season keeps me awake at night.

3.) LT Brandon Albert

Our tackle depth is a mystery right now. While the Chiefs have a bunch of young bodies behind their bookends with Albert and Winston, there are no proven commodities among them. While LT’s are generally looked at as the guys who keep their QB’s healthy, Albert has also been vital to the Chiefs’ run blocking. The team was massively better running to the left than the right last year. If Albert were to go down, they would likely move Winston to LT, a position he is not ideally suited for, and we would be leaving a question mark at RT that could very likely be worse than Barry Richardson – as hard as that is to imagine.

4.) CB Brandon Flowers

What? Three out of the top four are defensive players? But our defense was strong and our offense was weak! True. But, with the exception of the Chiefs, the AFC West is going to be a passing division in 2012. Rivers is poised for a bounce-back, Peyton Manning is in Denver, and Oakland is going to be forced to pass due to the fact that they now have bad running back depth and they will be in shootouts with opponents because their pass defense was decimated in the offseason.

I still think Berry is more important than Flowers overall to the Chiefs pass defense, but losing Flowers would also put KC in a pinch. I am high on Routt, but he did not fair well as the #1 CB in Oakland and Javier Arenas and Jalil Brown should really stay in the slot. Travis Daniels could fill in for a game of two as the #2 CB, but he’s not athletic and would be a liability long-term.

5.) WR Dwayne Bowe

Jon Baldwin has yet to prove he can take on the #1 role. The Cassel-to-Bowe connection remains the entire passing offense.

6.) RB Jamaal Charles

Finally, you’re thinking, he gets around to mentioning our franchise player. I put Charles 6^th because we unfortunately don’t know what we’re getting out of him this year and because the Chiefs now have killer RB depth. Our offense is indisputably more dangerous with him on the field, but we will be able to soldier on without him. Still, out of the ‘backs in the Chiefs stables, he is the only one with true home-run ability and that is something that the offense lacks all around. If the Chiefs want to be a contender, we have to make some big plays.

7.) QB Matt Cassel

He may not be Canton-bound, but he can be very productive with the guys the Chiefs have on the roster. Quinn has been inconsistent in his career and Stanzi is a mystery box.

8.) LB Derrick Johnson

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DJ is the rock to the Chiefs’ defense. He’s a tackling machine and is a mean run-stuffer. He also can be counted on to make 1-2 phenomenal head’s-up plays per game.

9.) RT Eric Winston

Winston is here for the same reasons as Albert — he would be extremely difficult to replace. But, we also need to him to cover the Chiefs right side because effective pass blocking there will allow Moeaki and Boss to release and be additional targets for Cassel or to block downfield for Charles and Hillis.

10.) NT Dontari Poe

While I don’t think expectations should be too high, I’m betting that Poe ends up contributing for us this season. If we don’t get production out of Poe we will be relying on Amon Gordon – a decent starter at DE, but a substandard NT. Poe has the chance to make the entire defense stronger, or weaker.

It’s that time of year – the time of year when there’s not really much to talk about in football, but we’re all the more starved for content about it. This is the time of year when sports commentators, myself included, spout mostly hypothetical nonsense and rehash the same offseason moves over and over.

Lucky for the Chiefs, there are no big celebrity players on our squad, but that doesn’t mean we are not going to be bombarded by “news” pieces about Tebow’s new pair of shoes or Tony Romo’s Caribbean vacation. Speaking for myself, I’m also too young to care about the Hall of Fame and too much of a cynic to care much about NFL players’ personal charities and community outreach. They all do it, it’s all heart-warming and we never really find out if any actually does any good. Part of the quid pro quo between sports reporters and players is that the reporters will hype players’ charities in the offseason and whenever else possible, and those players give good anonymous trash talk about their fellow players and coaches (especially if the target is Mark Sanchez).

So, although the fact that you are reading this means that you, like me, are still going to be inhaling ever bit of Chiefs news this offseason regardless of how useless it is, I’m going to give you a primer for articles to avoid (including those written by me).

These are the top stories you’ll be plenty sick of by the time real football starts up again.

1.) Any story with a headline ending in a question mark.

As a journalist by trade, this has always been one of my pet peeves. Generally, any headline ending in a question mark is shorthand for “filler article.” If the central thesis of the piece is so flimsy to scrutiny that you can’t even write it without a typographic shrug, then why are you writing it in the first place?

John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

2.) Can Matt Cassel take this team to greatness?

Will it rain October 13, 2017? No one knows. This, of course, is why the question never goes away. Every Chiefs fan knows the score. Cassel has given us one and a half bad seasons, one good season and performed well for another team that was probably the best in the league at the time. The overall roster around Cassel is better this year. Everyone knows this is Cassel’s make or break season in KC.

But, Cassel is also well-respected in the locker room, which means that unless he undergoes a major personality change or a sudden and inexplicable drop in his athletic ability this summer, we are going to hear nothing but positive reviews about him coming out of Arrowhead. Therefore, we will have no more real evidence in this discussion until preseason begins in August. Lyle put together a great historical comparison of Cassel to other quarterbacks in similar situations, which makes the most positive fact-based case I’ve seen for Cassel thus far. But, even then, it relies on how other players performed. Every player is different. And, given how the goings-on at Arrowhead are more guarded than nuclear secrets, my bet is we will learn exactly zilch about Cassel’s ability in the next 16 weeks.

3.) Will Charles and Moeaki bounce back from injuries?

Will it rain October 14, 2017? This is also a subject on which we are likely to hear nothing but manically positive news until the preseason begins (which they likely won’t play in anyway). Coaches, agents and the players themselves are never going to come out and say, “Yeah, I’m really behind schedule on my recovery,” or “Yeah, I definitely don’t have professional speed anymore.”

There are only three things we need concern ourselves with on this subject – 1.) Neither have shown lasting or degrading effects from previous injuries 2.) Because they were injured so early last year, they are well within the recovery times for ACL tears to be able to come back full strength by opening day and 3.) This time around at least, we have the depth at their positions to overcome their absence.

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4.) Will Dontari Poe live up to his physical potential?

Ask me in three years. Seriously. This guy is a major project, and unless he learns his position in record time and stuns the pants off the coaches, he will probably be a rotational player throughout the 2012 season. As much as we have all whined about the success rate of Chiefs first-round DTs, Glenn Dorsey has quietly developed into a top run stuffer and Tyson Jackson has shown the willingness to trim his salary down to something more accurately representing his production. Thanks to the CBA, Poe’s contract won’t kill us at least, and if he is among the 50 percent of first-round-picks that bust, we will march on.

There is only one thing we can be certain about with Dontari Poe – we won’t know how good he is this year, and probably not next year either. Even if he has a great season, he’ll likely regress or at least face a sophomore slump.

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5.) Will Bowe get extended?

This is the only one of the five above that I think is actually a legitimate discussion to be had. If Bowe wants Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson money, do we keep him? We’re paying him less than $10 million this year with the franchise tag, but if he wants a long-term deal with an annual salary in the teens, then the decision is less obvious. At the same time, don’t expect this to get done until midway through the season at the earliest. The two biggest factors in whether or not Bowe gets a deal are going to be the offense’s overall production with or without him, and the development of Jonathan Baldwin. If Baldwin has a breakout season and shows the ability of being a #1 receiver (which I think is highly unlikely, this season anyway) then I bet Pioli allows Bowe to test the market. If the Chiefs are tearing up the league and appear playoff-bound halfway through the year, the front office might feel like it makes sense to try and lock up Bowe early, because his value will only increase once he’s making clutch catches in post-season games.

Still, with so many variables and the fact that Bowe has already said that he will not hold out through training camp, this question is both unanswerable and somewhat irrelevant at this point. However, that does not mean we won’t be hearing about it. We are going to hear a lot about Bowe and the contract negotiations in the coming months but I’ll eat a shoe if they actually sign anything before the season begins. Mark my words.

So, that’s what I anticipate I’ll be sick of hearing about by the time we actually see some football played. Am I missing anything?

Like many of you, I was very skeptical when the Chiefs signed RB Peyton Hillis this March to a one-year, $3-million deal. It seemed like he was a pure power back who stood out on a Cleveland team bereft of any real talent and had just come off of an injury-riddled season full of off-the-field problems. He seemed like damaged goods we got off the bargain rack as an insurance policy on Charles, despite the fact he was just as likely of getting re-injured as the guy he was backing up.

I still have some of those doubts, but I finally got around to scouting Hillis a bit. Despite being on the cover of Madden (and taking the famed curse on the nose), playing for the Browns is like being in witness protection. I generally recollected that he was good, but he sounded a lot like Thomas Jones to me.

What I discovered is, first of all, no one was quite as bad as Jones last year. Literally. Jones ranked dead friggin’ last out of 56 running backs in Pro Football Focus’s Elusive Rating, which tracks how well a back does after first contact. Hillis also generally disappointed by that measure last year, but that likely came as a result of being the entire Browns offense in 2010. He played 90 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and was serving as a pass protector even when not getting the ball (Charles was only on the field for 53 percent of the snaps).

At the end of 2010, Brian Daboll left as the offensive coordinator and Hillis got the injury bug, plus he was likely in need of some extra recovery time after being run lame for a season and he took a big step back. So, I decided to put my NFL GamePass account to good use and watched the last game in the 2011 season when Hillis had more than 12 carries – Week 15 against Arizona. I figured this would also be a good game because the Cardinals have a stout defensive front and it would be a good setting to see how he did without counting on his O-line dominating.

I must say, I came away quite impressed. First, I think it is a great misperception that he is just a pounder. He has speed.

In his first two touches of the game he fired through the hole like a gazelle bolting from captivity for gains of 18 and 12. One would think that the biggest running back in the league (6’2”, 250 lbs) would be best when shoving through contact, but actually Hillis truly excels in the open field – so much so that they even split him out wide as a WR on several plays. He’s obviously not very shifty, but if you get him behind the ‘backers, there is simply no one who can take him down. DBs have to try to get low on him to have a prayer of tackling him, and if you watch his highlight reel, you see that he has made an art out of hurdling little guys.

Also, whatever personality issues made him clash with coaches off the field were totally absent from his demeanor on the field. He showed himself to be a fiery competitor and took responsibility for a (literal) slip-up. On a play where he was able to break outside with largely open field ahead, he tried to make a cut with his inside foot and ended up going down without contact. Immediately after the play, the cameras caught him saying to the OC “My fault, it was my fault on that one.”

I’m extremely excited to see what Daboll will do with him. Although I do think some of the things they were doing with him like splitting him out wide were largely gimmicks to mess with the defense and mask the Browns’ dreadful wide receiving corps, I do think he could get great matchups against CBs. While he may not burn them down field, he has the height and body size to fight for position on intermediate routes, and if he gets any separation he will be able to plow through a few guys in the defensive backfield.

He also has great hands for a running back. His one drop among 61 catches in 2010 made him the third most consistent receiving RB in the league. Most importantly for QB Matt “Panic Toss” Cassel, Hillis hauled in 90 percent of all passes thrown at him in 2010 – on target or not. Then, he had 453 yards after the catch.

The big question is how often the Chiefs are going to give him the ball. KC fans were rightfully outraged at the fact Jones got considerably more touches than Charles in 2010, but Hillis is not Jones.

According to an ESPN Insider article (which I, like Paddy, would not recommend you pay for), “the Chiefs likely will lean heavily on Hillis early during the 2012 season while Charles gets his legs under him.”

Pro Fantasy Focus predicts, “with the Chiefs not wanting to overwork Charles, and now not needing to, I’d expect there to be a similar split in the backfield as 2010 between Charles and Thomas Jones. I’m penciling in Hillis for 240 carries for 1013 yards, 35 receptions for 256 yards, and 8 touchdowns, while giving Charles 200 carries for 1149 yards, 40 receptions for 296 yards, and 6 touchdowns.”

I think that might be a bit excessive, but after watching Hillis run, I am convinced he is much better than a short-yardage, third-down back. I think the ratio of carries Hillis and Charles receive will likely depend on the opponent and the weaknesses the Chiefs want to exploit in the opposing defense. When we face teams with heavy-footed, run-stuffing linebackers, we can let Charles dance around them or burn by them. If we’re up against a finesse team with coverage linebackers, we can let Hillis run them over.

Earlier the conversation had been about getting appropriate depth for Charles should he go down again, but I think the Chiefs may have actually gotten what they hoped they would get by picking up Thomas Jones in 2010 – a genuine two-headed monster.

And, since the offense will once again be going through the run again, I think it is very likely that Hillis could end up becoming the free-agent signing – not only of the Chiefs’ offseason – but of the League, if both stay healthy.

Note: For Internal Use Only. Coaches, players and fans of the Raiders, Chargers and Broncos are not authorized to read this post.

It’s that time of the year. The Draft and free agency have passed and we all feel like we have the best team in the league.  In fact, everyone feels like they have the best team in the league. The only problem is that 31 of them are wrong and we’re probably one of them.

Thus, it has come time for me to assume the role I have carved out on this site and that is being the Debbie Downer. We still have holes and weaknesses. Talented coordinators are going to be able to target those weaknesses and we need to be thinking about how to mask them.

If I am an opposing coach, this is how I plan my game:

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

1.) Defend RB Jamaal Charles. How? By keeping him out of the end zone. Provided he is back to his old self, he’s almost certainly going to rack up 100+ yards on us. Let him; just don’t let the safeties get beat. Pay the mascot another bounty for taking him out (Just kidding, they’ll be watching this time).

2.) Throw deep. Now, this may seem like a strange prescription given that the Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in the league. However, it makes sense for several reasons.

First off, S Eric Berry and CB Brandon Flowers are scary, scary men when healthy, but there are other bits of the pass defense that are vulnerable. S Kendrick Lewis is a smart ball hawk, but he doesn’t have the wheels to keep up with speedy receivers streaking downfield. Routt is known to willingly take a holding or interference call if he feels like he is losing the wideout, rather than risk give up a touchdown. Send our best track star on a sprint down field a few times per game just to see what happens. Depending on the coverage, we can fake Berry off to the other side, we may get lucky with a blitzing DB, or our guy might just be able to outrun his man. There’s also a good chance we can scare Routt into eating an erroneous penalty. We’ll also probably get favorable matchups with our tight ends against their linebackers and safeties.

Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Secondly, as we saw last year, all of the Chiefs’ explosive plays comes from two guys –Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe. There is simply no one else on the team who generates big plays with any consistency. While each of those two is guaranteed to have a couple of good-gainers on us, limiting their ability to score will keep the Chiefs off the board. KC was 31^st in scoring last year and 14^th in the league in 2010 when they had all their stars healthy. As long as the game stays close, we will be able to make big plays on them, and it’s likely they won’t be able to keep up. They counted on the ability to run at will and chew clock in 2010. If we can get a couple of quick, easy touchdowns on them, they won’t be able to use that to their advantage.

3.) Stand tall on first and third down. Jamaal Charles is at his best on first down –108 of his 230 carries (47 percent) were on first for 7.2 yards-per-carry (YPC) in 2010. But, he only averaged 5.2 YPC up the middle. Let him have it. On early downs, keep our backers and ends out in contain on the edges. If we can do that, we can force them into lots of third-down situations. In 2010, the Chiefs were 20^th in the league in converting on third down, 27^th in 2011. Watch out for RB Peyton Hillis on third.

4.) Play smart, the Chiefs likely won’t. In 2010, KC was the 12^th most penalized team in the league. In 2011, they were 9^th, and they just added a couple of Raiders. They are a very young team, and when they are frustrated, they will gift you yards. Let’s not be so generous.

5.) Win in the beginning. Both Hillis and Charles put up their best numbers in the first quarter. As long as they are just tallying up yardage while we are tallying up points with a few big plays, we can live with that. Matt Cassel had a passer rating of 52.3 in the fourth quarter of games that were decided by seven points or less. He’s not much better in overtime. If we are still leading going into the fourth, we have to feel good about our chances of winning.

So, Addicts, that’s how opposing teams will be looking at us. What do we do to counter?

(Hindsight is … Complicated Part II, for Part I, click here)

To me, among the most intriguing Chiefs picks in the draft were WR Devon Wylie (4^th round) and RB Cyrus Gray (6^th). Wylie is a short wideout with ridiculous speed who would have gone earlier in the draft if it weren’t for injury concerns. Gray is a small and speedy back with breakaway speed. Both were also great special teamers in college. Together, they basically make a better version of Dexter McCluster.

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As I have been going back and re-watching all of the games from the 2011 season, one theme has consistently arisen – there are lot of Chiefs players that I am very jaded about. One of those is Dexter McCluster.

Drafted initially be to a Wes Welker type receiver, he spent a lot more time last season in the role of a running back as a complimentary Darren Sproles type. So far, he has lived up to neither comparison, but he might some day and therein lies the dilemma.

Last year, when Jamaal Charles went down, so did our offense. Having one of the most dynamic players in the league touching the ball 20 times a game had allowed the Chiefs to hide a lot of weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball. With Charles gone, Haley struggled to throw together something resembling an offense with depth players off the trash heap. Even during his rookie season, clouded by the excitement of the Chiefs’ first winning season in ages was the fact that McCluster was all but a bust as a playmaker. He had just 21 receptions and 18 carries with his only memorable play being a touchdown on a screen pass against San Francisco.

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At the end of the 2010 season, Haley seemed to be giving up on the idea of McCluster as a slot receiver and said he would be giving him more snaps at running back. I don’t think they planned on him having 114 carries in 2011, but that’s how it shook out. What’s interesting about going back to the numbers is that they conflict wildly with my own perceptions and affections. I’ve always liked McCluster as a seemingly hard-working guy who has the kind of grit you wouldn’t expect from a 170-lb munchkin.

Still, the numbers don’t lie. McCluster just doesn’t make big plays, which is his only purpose. RB Jackie Battle was a guy who was able to get what was already there with the ability to break a tackle or two. McCluster basically gets what’s there plus 3 yards due to his speed, but he won’t be breaking any tackles and he’ll get stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage for a few serious losses a game. Even Battle beat him as the KC running back with the biggest ground gain of the 2011 season with a 34-yarder against Denver.

All of this brings us back to the Chiefs’ eternal offensive problem since the Trent Green days. We move the ball, but we don’t make big plays and we can’t score for the life of us. McCluster is not currently helping to alleviate this problem. He’s not a great receiver, not a great running back, useless in pass protection, and only had one return for a touchdown in two seasons. So where does he fit?

Despite the fact that the Peyton Hillis signing gave the Chiefs’ roster three running backs (not counting Shaun Draughn), I still thought they needed at least one more body. Charles is still rehabbing his ACL, Hillis is coming off of schizophrenic year with injuries and odd behavior, and McCluster, as we have established, is nothing special and can’t currently be trusted to shoulder a serious portion of the carries.

What I expected they would do is go after a power back more in the mold of Thomas Jones when he had speed. Instead they grabbed Gray, a guy known for his quickness, but who can handle more contact than McCluster can. They also picked up Wylie, a dude who ran 4.25 40 in 2009 before breaking his foot, and projects well as a slot receiver with some downfield ability. If both of these guys pan out, McCluster will be unnecessary.

But that’s assuming that McCluster will not continue to develop. In Scouts Inc.’s blurb on him, the only bad thing they pointed out in his game is: “He has good ball skills but will struggle when competing for the ball in a crowd. He needs a lot of work on his route running and setting defenders up and will settle into crowded zones at times rather than find a window for the quarterback to throw though.”

Meaning, he can still be taught.

Sproles, who was in many ways a trailblazer for sparkplugs like McCluster, only had 148 touches in his first three years with San Diego. McCluster had 160 in 2011. Sproles only really came on in his 4^th season, and truly exploded for the Saints last year with 1,313 total yards from scrimmage split almost perfectly evenly between runs and passes. The difference is that he was in the high-octane Saints offense getting the ball from Drew Brees.

Could McCluster eventually develop into Sproles? It’s possible, but very hard to tell. Although they are both short, Sproles is two inches shorter and 20 lbs heavier than McCluster, giving him a bit more beef to sustain hits and an even smaller profile to grab or shut down by filling the gaps in front of him. Also, being so small, you have to be an excellent route-runner because otherwise it’s just too easy for defenders to box you out, and if you’re not in the exact right spot, it’s hard for the quarterback to get the ball to you. Sproles has gradually become an excellent route runner; McCluster clearly still has a lot of work to do.

Getting the most out of these little guys also depends heavily on the person designing the scheme. All indications are that McCluster was a Pioli pick – he comes from the New England mindset of getting versatile gadget players, Haley loves big physical receivers. Because of that, I think there is reason for optimism now that Brian Daboll has taken over the offense.

Although it took him too long to install with the lockout, Miami was humming once they understood his offense last year. Just watching them demolish the Chiefs at Arrowhead again was enough to convince me this guy knows how to draw up plays.  The color commentators couldn’t stop talking about one play that led to their tight end burning Derrick Johnson for a touchdown.

Often times, these sort of unique players need to find the right pairing with a coach who can figure out how to maximize them. RB Danny Woodhead got almost 1,000 yards for New England in 2010 after being cut by the Jets. Sproles was one of the best free agent signings of 2011, leaving Chargers for the Saints. I worry that if McCluster doesn’t pan out for the Chiefs, we will soon be seeing him in highlight reels wearing a different color.

What do you think addicts? Is it time to bring the McCluster experiment to an end, or is he one more offseason away from being the dynamic weapon we’ve been waiting for?

With four days to the Draft, we still have no idea who the Chiefs are going to pick first in the Draft.

I myself have argued for Poe, for Tannehill and for neither. The fact is that there is not a single right answer in this year’s Draft for the Chiefs. I believe strongly there are multiple ways they could go that will pay off for them down the road. It’s one of those beautiful times when the question is more about how the Chiefs will get stronger, not whether.

With that in mind, over the last few weeks I’ve been reviewing the Chiefs’ tape. In an admission of total powerlessness to my NFL addiction I paid the $69.99 to re-up my subscription for the NFL Gamepass to be able to watch NFL Network and all the games of the 2011 season on demand until August.

While I’ve already watched every game the Chiefs played in 2011, some stand out more memorably in my mind due to a mix of factors. Because I watch live games from 8-9 hours ahead of Eastern Time all year (meaning noon kickoffs at Arrowhead are either 9 or 10 p.m. here), sleepiness/alcohol remain obstacles to proper analysis. I also feel like the offseason narratives tend to take a life of their own the further and further we get away having actually seen some football played. We all agree that the Chiefs are going to be better and in contention for the division title again this year. But they were downright bad in certain areas last years – and not just at positions where we had injuries.

Therefore, I decided I would take a look a back at the season of ups and downs in a mixed order so to not just look at the awful start and the inspiring finish, but try to see how players played in the season as a whole. My final goal of looking back was to scout the Chiefs’ additions this offseason.

First up:

Week 15 Raiders at Chiefs, L 16-13

• Why: I was actually physically present at this game and long wanted to revisit it, because, although I had great seats and a marvelous view of how it went down, I continued to find it very hard to wrap my head around just how we managed to lose this game. Save for an easy field goal that was blocked as time expired, this would have won the division for us. I also figured it would be a good chance to scout CB Stanford Routt, who saw the light and joined the Chiefs after being cut by the Oakland freak show.
• Moving the ball: The Raiders have a very good front seven, and while the Chiefs didn’t run all over them, we overall did not have problems getting downfield. The fact that we only put 13 points on the board was due primarily to two blocked field goals, some questionable penalties and one AWFUL Kyle Orton interception in the endzone.
• Game-changing defense: Overall, it’s pretty clear that the majority of the Chiefs’ playmakers are on defense. We all love Hali and Flowers, but what was most interesting in this game was the play of S Kendrick Lewis and CB Javier Arenas. Each are young and promising players who also make bone-headed moves at times. Arenas, 24, had a timely interception that could have changed the game in the Chiefs’ favor. But as usual, he also drew a few penalties and got beat on a throws to the flat (although depending on the coverage scheme for that play, it could have been intentional). Lewis, 23, broke up two key passes, and again had a game of stout run support, but he also got beat BADLY on the first play of overtime, which was a deep pass to Denarius Moore that ended up sealing the Raiders’ victory. I have a love/hate relationship with both of these guys. They make plays, plain and simple, plus Arenas is a very valuable special teamer. At times they look so great I hate the idea of drafting or signing their replacements through free agency. But they also make some really deadly mistakes. In the end I think they will keep getting better and will be great for the Chiefs down the road. What gives me pause is the idea: can we afford it if they don’t?

Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

• Stanford Routt is very, very good: Look, Brandon Carr was a great fan favorite and Routt had horrendous 2011 numbers. He both gave up more touchdowns than any other corner in the NFL, he was also the most penalized guy at his position. But, if you actually watch him play, you understand why. First off, the Raiders are a blitz-happy, man-on-man defensive team, which means that whoever is covering the other team’s #1 option is screwed a good portion of the time. That defense was designed for Nnamdi Asomugha, who can handle being on an island, but Routt just doesn’t have his phenomenal ability. Still, he did very well with what he had to offer. As for penalties, the Raiders are the most penalized team in the league and this Week 16 nearly beat the single-game record for penalties. The fact is that it was clear Routt knew the score, knew he had no help half the time, so whenever he felt like Dwayne Bowe was about to break away from him, he took the 10-yard defensive holding penalty rather than give up a touchdown. In the end, he had an interception and held Bowe to six catches and a touchdown (a beautiful, undefendable left-arm bullet-pass). In my mind, that is overall a wash, which, on a team with crappy D-backs against the clear #1 target, is more than admirable. As for his stats and performance for the Chiefs, I think he will be a great #2 CB, and with S Eric Berry able to get to both sides of the field to help out in pass support with his insane athleticism, I think Routt will be safe to lay up on the penalties and just do what he does. In KC, he won’t have to carry the entire defensive backfield on his shoulders.

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• Our offensive line is serviceable: Even against the solid Oakland front seven, the Chiefs were very productive running the ball, and only passed it when it was absolutely necessary, despite the fact that the Raiders were overall weaker in the secondary. For what G Ryan Lilja lacks in pass-blocking, he remains a very good run-blocker, especially when pulling to the outside.
• The “not getting it done” factor: The Chiefs suffered from this all season long. Sure, we lost by the freak probabilities of having a game-winning field goal blocked as time expired. But the Chiefs should have never been in that position. We outplayed the Raiders for all but a few big moments. We should have won by two scores, but we didn’t capitalize on our opportunities the way that winning teams find a way to do.
• Insight for the Draft: This was a very evenly matched game and when we play the Raiders next two times, it will not be so close in terms of the level of talent on the field. With all of the Chiefs’ injured players back plus free agent acquisitions and the Draft (Oakland is all but skipping the Draft this year), we should be able to roll these clowns on paper going into the next meeting. However, they will still be able to shoot at our Achilles’ heel – if Berry is out or is covering a different guy, we do not have any other pure athletes in our secondary that can keep up with the Raiders’ signature track-squad WR corps. If we continue to have problems scoring, this tendency to give up big plays late will still kill us in the end. Lewis may be a great run-support banger safety, but he is a liability against speedy downfield weapons. If the Chiefs trade back in the first round, I will have no problem with selecting Mark Barron with our first pick.

Kelly Lambert-US PRESSWIRE

Barron to KC? What do you think?