A couple of weeks ago my fellow AA writer Nicholas Alan Clayton posted a terrific piece on why it’s foolish to make predictions this time of year. It was spot on, well reasoned, and a great read. Predictions this time of year are bound to be wrong. There is just too much we don’t know about how things are going to shake out. That having been said, I love predictions. I love taking a shot at how you think things might turn out. So this week I decided to sit down with the NFL schedule and pick every single game of the NFL regular season and see how the records for each team would end up.

I’ve tried just guessing the final records in the past and found that I usually had more wins than loses. By picking every game I at least have a hypothetical shot at being right.

Now, let me be clear, I will be dead wrong about a number of teams, but I thought I’d put it out there and see what everyone else thought. What teams do I have too high, too low, etc. I’ll take it one division at a time.

Here we go.

AFC East

New England: 11-5
Miami: 8-8
New York: 3-13
Buffalo: 2-14

I don’t think the New England and Miami records will shock anyone, but as you can see I am NOT high on either the Jets or the Bills. I didn’t set out to give either team so few wins, but each week I just had a hard time predicting wins for them.

AFC North

Cincinnati: 11-5
Baltimore: 10-6
Pittsburgh: 7-9
Cleveland: 7-9

Baltimore lost a lot this offseason, but I also think they did a pretty good job of reloading. However, I think Cincinnati may edge them out this year. If the Bengals had an elite QB I think they would be legit Super Bowl contenders. I’m down on the Steelers this year because I think their defense just got too old and is headed for a decline. I think Cleveland will actually be tougher than many people think.

AFC South

Indianapolis: 11-5
Houston: 10-6
Tennessee: 5-11
Jacksonville: 2-14

The Colts were really good last year with a rookie QB and a first time head coach that missed most of the season battling cancer. Now that they should be settled in and more comfortable they could be really dangerous. I still think Houston is good but limited by their QB and Tennessee and Jacksonville aren’t very good.

AFC West

Denver: 13-3
Kansas City: 10-6
San Diego: 6-10
Oakland: 3-13

Sadly, I think the Broncos have one more really great season next year before Manning starts to decline. I’m bullish on our beloved Chiefs (surprise, surprise) but I’m not sold on San Diego and where they’re headed. I actually think Oakland is headed in the right direction and will be better in the near future, but their roster is so talent strapped due to salary cap restrictions that I think they really struggle for one more season.

NFC East

Washington: 10-6
New York: 10-6
Dallas: 9-7
Philadelphia: 5-11

Washington edges out the Giants for the division because of a better division record. Dallas misses the playoffs causing Jerry Jones’ head to explode (Yeah!). Chip Kelly’s Eagles look promising, but will take a couple of years to adjust to his style.

NFC North

Green Bay: 12-4
Chicago: 9-7
Detroit: 9-7
Minnesota: 6-10

Green Bay is kind of a forgotten power house in my opinion. Everyone is so busy focusing on San Francisco and Seattle in the NFC that they are almost overlooking the Packers. I think Aaron Rodgers will remind everyone that he is the best player in the NFL. Chicago and Detroit will both be solid, but just miss out on the playoffs. Minnesota will take a step back and realize that they will have to look for a replacement for Christian Ponder at QB.

NFC South

Atlanta: 11-5
New Orleans: 10-6
Carolina: 7-9
Tampa Bay: 5-11

Atlanta will continue to be a great regular season team, but not quite elite enough to win it all. New Orleans will bounce back some with Sean Payton back at the helm again. Carolina will be dangerous, but I’m not sold on Cam Newton as a big time QB. Tampa Bay will make the mistake of benching Josh Freeman only to find that Mike Glennon is not an upgrade.

NFC West

San Francisco: 12-4
Seattle: 11-5
Saint Louis: 6-10
Arizona: 5-11

I think San Francisco will edge out Seattle in a battle of division powers, but it will be very close. As much as I like Jeff Fisher, I don’t like Sam Bradford even more. Some people think the Rams may surprise, but I see Bradford as just one step up from Christian Ponder. Arizona will learn that even though Carson Palmer is an upgrade over the QBs they had last year (not saying much) he’s still not good enough to make them a contender in a division with two emerging super powers.

So the AFC playoff teams are Denver, New England, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati with Baltimore and Kansas City as the wild cards (both teams beat Houston head to head so they miss out). The NFC teams are Green Bay, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Washington with Seattle and either New Orleans or the Giants as the wildcards (I could have looked up the tie breakers for NO and NYG, but for a June prediction post that seemed a little obsessive).

So what do you think? What teams am I too high on? What teams am I selling short? Am I drinking WAY too much Chiefs Kool Aid to have them 10-6? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below. However, if you are a fan of another team that I predicted to do REALLY poorly, keep in mind it’s just an offseason prediction and don’t take it too personally.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Kansas City Chiefs have wrapped up their OTAs and Mini Camp and we have now begun the long slow wait that takes us up to the start of training camp. At this point all fans (and bloggers) can do is speculate as to wether or not the moves that their favorite team made this offseason made their team better. The Chiefs, as we all know, have had a massive overhaul from GM, to head coach, to quarterback, in addition to the regular influx of free agents and draft picks. This week I want to look at just how much we should expect Alex Smith to improve the Kansas City Chiefs.

The past couple of seasons the play at the quarterback position for the Kansas City Chiefs has been about as bad as any team in the NFL. Words that come to mind are awful, putrid, embarrassing, and incompetent. It’s been so bad that Chiefs fans got a glimpse of NFL journeyman Kyle Orton for a couple of games and were like “WOW, he’s SO much better than what we’re used to!” The quarterback play has been the biggest reason for this team losing games, at least when it comes to the players on the field (we can save the GM/coach/QB blame game for another day). I for one, thought to myself many times over the past few years that with the solid skill players we have on both sides of the ball all we need is a QB that was good, not all world, just good enough to not hold KC back and the Chiefs might be a team to recon with.

When the Chiefs traded for Alex Smith most KC fans were upset. Not necessarily because they didn’t like Smith, but because most fans were ready for KC to draft and develop their own franchise QB (this blogger included). That having been said, when you look at the past few seasons it is clear that Smith’s play has been light years better than what KC was trying to pass off as NFL quarterbacking. So the question is, how much should we expect Smith to improve the team.

Here’s what I did.

For the sake of this post I used a quarterback rating dividing line of 80 to determine poor QB play versus average or better QB play. I then looked back over the past three seasons (2010, 2011, and 2012) at how other areas of the Chiefs team were affected by the QB play. The areas I looked at:

Defensive Yards Allowed
Defensive Points Allowed
Defensive Sacks
Turnovers Created
Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Per Carry
Rushing TDs
Wins

Basically, I wanted to know if the Chiefs defense and run game benefited from getting better production from the QB position. I can’t be the only KC fan that has thought to himself “The Chiefs defense would be so much better if they just had a QB that could sustain drives and not turn the ball over!” or “I can’t believe Jamaal Charles is this good with no passing game. Imagine how much better the run game would be if KC had a passing attack!” So I thought I’d see if the numbers back those theories up.

Here’s what I found.

From 2010-2012 the Chiefs had 18 games where their primary QB that game had a QB rating above 80 and 30 games where it was below 80. Here’s how the numbers for the areas I mentioned above compare.

Defensive Yards Allowed
QB Rating Over 80: 329.7
QB Rating Under 80: 346.2

Defensive Points Allowed
QB Rating Over 80: 20.2
QB Rating Under 80: 24.2

Sacks Per Game
QB Rating Over 80: 2.4
QB Rating Under 80: 1.7

Turnovers Created Per Game
QB Rating Over 80: 1.2
QB Rating Under 80: 1.4

KC Rushing Yards Per Game
QB Rating Over 80: 161.4
QB Rating Under 80: 133.6

Average KC Yards Per Carry
QB Rating Over 80: 4.5
QB Rating Under 80: 4.3

Rushing TDs Per Game
QB Rating Over 80: 0.61
QB Rating Under 80: 0.53

Now, these numbers aren’t staggering, but two things stand out to me. When KC gets better QB play they give up 4 less points per game and rush for about 28 yards more per game. These are the same defenders, same running backs, same offensive line, but when the QB position performs better they are put in better positions and see some benefit.

That’s not the best news for KC fans though. That comes when we look at what really matters most. Wins.

Here are the win/loss records broken down.

QB Rating Over 80: 12-6 (66.67%)
QB Rating Under 80: 7-23 (23.33%)

That’s a HUGE difference. I don’t think anyone will be blown away be those percentages. It’s pretty much common knowledge at this point that it’s a QB driven league. These numbers just prove that this is true for the Chiefs as well.

So the question then becomes wether or not Alex Smith can consistently put the Chiefs in that first category. His recent history indicates that he can. At very least he will be a MASSIVE improvement over KC’s recent QBs. In the past 48 games KC QBs have had 18 games with a QB rating over 80. Alex Smith has had 17 games over 80 in just his past 24 games. So in half the games he put up almost the same number of quality performances as KC QBs did in twice that time.

If you’ll bear with me for a little more “stat nerdiness” I’ll make my final case for Smith improving KC.

Alex Smith had a QB Rating of 80 or better in 17 of his past 24 starts over the past two seasons, that’s 70.8% of his starts. 70.8% of 16 games is about 11.3 games. So if Smith can repeat his production from San Francisco then KC fans should expect Smith to give them 11 games with a QB rating over 80 and 5 games with a QB rating under 80.

If the numbers above hold true and KC wins 66.67% of their games with a QB rating over 80 then they should expect to win 7 of the 11 games where Smith has a QB rating over 80. If they win 23.33% of the games with a QB rating under 80 then they should expect to win 1 of the 5 games where Smith has a QB rating under 80. That would give the Chiefs a record of 8-8.

Now, I know 8-8 isn’t playoff caliber, but keep in mind this is just factoring in the improved QB play. It doesn’t take into account the improved roster that John Dorsey has assembled or the improved coaching staff lead by Andy Reid. What these numbers are saying is that if you took Alex Smith’s QB play from SF the past two seasons and put it on the Chiefs team that went 2-14 last year it should make them an 8 win team. These numbers suggest that if Andy Reid can get Alex Smith to perform like he did in SF that should be good for 6 more wins this season by itself.

That is pretty encouraging news for Chiefs fans.

I know that these numbers can’t tell the whole story, they never do. I know that QB Rating in and of itself isn’t a perfect way to define good and bad QB play. However, I do think they paint a general picture and that we can take some things away from that.

The key for the Chiefs this season is Andy Reid getting Alex Smith to play as well (or better) as he did in SF with Jim Harbaugh. If that happens then the defense should give up less points, the running game should run for more yards, and the Chiefs should be (at worst) a .500 team. If the improved roster and coaching can produce a couple more wins on top of that then there is hope that KC could make a run at the playoffs.

I’m curious to hear what you think in the comments below. Are you encouraged by these numbers? Do you think there is some real validity to them? I tried to be completely objective, but do you think these numbers are bogus? Did the stats make your eyes glaze over and so you just skipped to the end? I’d love to hear your thoughts regardless.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Kansas City Chiefs cleaned house this offseason. They have a new GM, a new head coach, new coordinators with new schemes on both sides of the ball, a new starting QB, etc. Whenever a team has that type of turnover, no player who was part of the old regime is safe. The Kansas City Chiefs have already parted ways with several players that old GM Scott Pioli brought to town. Former starting QB Matt Cassel was shown the door, as were other key players like Eric Winston and Javier Arenas. Once training camp comes and goes and the roster cuts begin, its very likely that KC fans will see other players from the old regime sent packing. Up until recently, I thought there was a good chance that Jerrell Powe might be one of those players.

Most Chiefs fans love Jerrell Powe. I’ll admit, I’m among them. What’s not to like? On a team that was desperate for a NT, he was a proven player from the SEC with the prototypical size/strength for the position. You add to that the personal story of perseverance that Powe has (he suffers from dyslexia and was deemed ineligible 3 straight years before finally becoming eligible for Ole Miss) and it’s almost impossible not to pull for the guy.

However, none of that changes the fact that Powe is a 6th round draft pick by the old regime that has only been active in 10 games over his first two seasons and recorded a whopping 6 career tackles. The selection of Dontari Poe at #11 overall pushed Jerrell down the depth chart and thus far he hasn’t been able to beat out Anthony Toribio either. Despite his status as a fan favorite, players with that resume shouldn’t exactly feel safe with their place on the roster, especially with a new regime in town. You add to that the fact that Powe is seen as more of a typical 3-4 run stuffing NT and the Chiefs are now going to be running more of an attacking style defense under defensive coordinator Bob Sutton and things look even less certain for Powe in KC.

However, on Sunday Chiefs Insider Reid Ferrin posted a piece on kcchiefs.com titled “Chiefs Defense “Buying Into” New System”. I almost didn’t read it. I figured it would just use some of the same quotes we’ve already heard from KC players saying that they’re really excited about the new “attacking” system and maybe some quotes from Sutton saying he’s happy with their progress so far. Some of that was in there, but to my pleasant surprise the middle section of the piece focused on the “Poe/Powe Brothers”.

It started with a quote from Sutton:

The entire d-line, the Powe/Poe brothers (Jerrell and Dontari), both of them, Powe and Poe, they’ve both done a good job

It didn’t stop there. It also included some quotes from other defensive linemen:

The strong play of Chiefs DL Jerrell Powe and Chiefs NT Dontari Poe isn’t solely being recognized by the team’s coaches.

“The Powe/Poe brothers,” Chiefs DT Daniel Muir said. “Both of them are extremely powerful; Dontari is a little bit quicker, but they’ll both be great against the run. Great, great defensive tackles against the run.”

Fellow Chiefs DL Marcus Dixon also spoke to what the Powe/Poe brothers bring to the defensive line.

“The Powe/Poe brothers mean a lot to this defense because they’re both very big and athletic,” Dixon said. “They’re definitely going to stop the run and also get to the quarterback.”

Ferrin then asked each of the “Poe/Powe Brothers” what they thought about what their coach and teammates said about them. Dontari responded:

“It’s good,” Poe said. “We’re both kind of young guys, but we both have a big part in the defense; so, we’re both ready to step in and do what we have to do for this “D”. I like it.”

Then Jerrell added:

“It makes me feel good,” Powe said. “Me and DP talked about it, kind of being similar as the Williams brothers, who played for the Minnesota Vikings; just trying to take on that role as being the dominant force up front, so, I think it’s cool, coach called us brothers.”

In my opinion this is very good news for any KC fans that were hoping to see Jerrell Powe have an increased role in the Chiefs defense. Despite blogs like this one being full of comments about how the “Poe/Powe Brothers” will anchor the middle of the defense, this is the first time we’ve seen anything from the Chiefs that Jerrell may be in their long term plans. The fact that the new coordinator is not only complimenting the two of them, but referring to them as a pair is a good sign. The fact that some of the new players like Muir and Dixon who may be in competition with Powe for a roster spot are talking about his role in the defense is also a good sign. Dontari’s quote about them both “having a big part in the defense” really stood out to me.

I don’t know if KC’s “Poe/Powe Brothers” will ever perform on the field like the Vikings “Williams Brothers” (Pat and Kevin) that Jerrell Powe listed as role models. However, we at least now have confirmation from the team that both Poe/Powe(s) seem to be in their plans for this season. For fans that have been screaming for that to happen since both of these guys came to town that has to be good news. I know I’m pulling for both of them. I can’t wait to hear your thoughts on the matter in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

As the long wait between the draft and training camp continues no position group for the Kansas City Chiefs is more interesting to me than the tight ends. Future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzales has been gone for four seasons already and the Chiefs have struggled to fill the void left by his departure. After a solid rookie campaign, Tony Moeaki appeared to be the heir apparent to the position. However, a history of injuries in college have followed him to the NFL. Now it appears Moeaki (who has already been ruled out until training camp after having his knee scoped) will have to compete for playing time and possibly even a roster spot.

The Chiefs signed former Miami Dolphin Anthony Fasano to a four year 16 million dollar contract this offseason. That’s pretty big money to pay someone to just compete for a job, so one would assume that Fasano will get regular playing time as either the #1 or #2 TE. Then they spent their first of two third round draft picks on Travis Kelce out of Cincinnati. With several solid prospects still on the board the fact that Andy Reid and John Dorsey felt that Kelce was the best pick despite having Moeaki and Fasano on the roster tells me they think he is going to be a really good player.

So the Chiefs literally have three different players who all have a shot at being the starting TE this season. Usually when a team has three people competing for one starting spot it’s because the team doesn’t really have anyone good enough to claim the spot. I don’t think that’s the case in KC this season. I think all three of these guys are good enough to start in the NFL.

Making this battle even more exciting is the added importance of the tight end position in the KC offense. No one has actually come out and said this, but all one has to do is look at the recent history of Andy Reid’s offenses and the play of Alex Smith and it becomes pretty clear.

In the past five years the average combined numbers for TEs on Reid’s Philly teams was:

70.6 receptions
809.8 yards
5.2 TDs

Alex Smith’s use of the TE takes a little more digging since he hasn’t played for entire seasons that frequently. However, if you include the 2011 playoff games, over the past 4 seasons Smith has played in 48 games. That’s the equivalent of three 16 game seasons. So I added up all of Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker’s stats from those 48 games and divided it by 3 to get the average numbers for a 16 game season. Those combined numbers were even bigger than those from Reid’s offense:

87.6 receptions
1144.3 yards
11.3 TDs

Now, those numbers are obviously inflated by the fact that Smith had arguably the best playmaking TE in the NFL in Vernon Davis. However, Davis’s numbers dropped off last season once Smith was benched. So clearly Smith has shown that he likes to use the TE. If you average the Reid and Smith numbers together you get:

79.1 receptions
977.05 yards
8.25 TDs

So those are probably a good estimate for what the tight end production should be in an Andy Reid offense with Alex Smith as the QB, IF the TEs are up to the challenge. That would certainly be a lot more production from the position than KC has seen since Tony Gonzalez left. In those four seasons the KC TEs have averaged:

46 receptions
503 yards
2.75 TDs

So in order for Reid and Smith to utilize the TE like they have in the past KC will have to almost double their production at the position. Is one of the three guys fighting for the starting job capable of putting up the bulk of those stats or will it have to be a combined effort? Thus far in their career Fasano and Moeaki’s numbers fall well short of the mark.

Fasano’s averages as a starting TE:
35.4 receptions
420.8 yards
4.6 TDs

Moeaki’s averages as a starting TE:
40 receptions
504.5 yards
2 TDs

So thus far in their careers as full time starting TEs you would have to combine their stats to get the numbers we said Reid and Smith will be looking for from the TE position. Now, they both have been working with inferior QBs for most of their careers so its possible their production will be increased just from better QB play. If either of the two are capable of producing bigger numbers its probably Moeaki. Fasano is a great blocker and has good hands, but his playmaking ability is very limited. He’s more of a safety valve/drop off type receiver than an actual receiving weapon. Moeaki has shown more down the field upside, but his injuries may make it hard for him to win the job.

That leads us to Travis Kelce. I’ll admit that I’m a big Kelce fan, so this opinion is probably biased. That having been said, I believe that if any TE on the roster is going to step up and give KC the production at the position that Reid and Smith will be looking for it is Kelce. If you haven’t watched THIS VIDEO yet, do it now. It does contain NSFW lyrics in the music, so be warned. What you see in that video is a tight end that lines up all over the field. He has soft hand, runs after the catch, and blocks with a ferocity that is rare for the position. If he can get the playbook down I think Kelce will be the one that eventually claims the job.

When asked what TE he would compare himself to, Kelce’s answer was Jeremy Shockey. In his rookie season Shockey tallied 74 receptions, 894 yards, and 2 TDs. A season like that would be huge for Kelce and the Chiefs. I don’t know if that’s realistic for Kelce, but I do think he has a chance to be a real weapon in the KC offense.

Will he be good enough to help KC’s TEs meet the demand put on them in this offense? Only time will tell, but I’ll be keeping a close eye on these guys when training camp rolls around.

What do you think Addicts? Will the TE position be a focus in this offense? Will one of these three guys step forward and claim the job outright? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The 2013 Kansas City Chiefs roster is probably almost finished. At this point free agency has pretty much come to a stand still. The draft is over. Undrafted free agents have been scooped up. At this point the pickens are pretty slim out there. The most likely additions to any team’s final 53 man roster will come after teams have to start trimming their roster and veterans lose their jobs to younger, cheaper players.

That having been said, I still think there is one move that KC could make that would have a real impact on their roster. I think they should sign Richard Seymour. Having read that, I’m guessing most of you reading this had one of two reactions. You either went “YES!” because you recognize Seymour’s name and know him from his Pro Bowl caliber days in New England several years back and think adding any “big name” player is exciting. Or…You rolled your eyes and thought “Come on, that guy is way past his prime and isn’t worth the money he would want.”

Let me start my argument for Seymour by saying that I didn’t set out to write this piece. I was originally going to do a piece predicting KC’s final 53 man roster this fall. During the process of putting it together I was working on who I thought might make the team on the defensive line and I was reminded of just how little pass rush presence the team has from its down linemen. Going into the draft I was sure they would take someone to add some push up the middle, even if it was just a developmental guy. That didn’t happen.

The Chiefs have some young guys they’ve brought in. Maybe one will pan out, but if KC is counting on Risean Broussard, Miguel Chavis, Rob Lohr, or Brad Madison to be a key pass rusher this season I think they are setting themselves up for failure.

The Chiefs currently have eight defensive linemen on their roster with NFL game experience. Here are those players with their career sacks and games played.

Tyson Jackson: 5/59
Mike DeVito: 2.5/85
Marcus Dixon: 2.5/22
Allen Bailey: 1/26
Daniel Muir: 0.5/46
Anthony Toribio: 0/17
Dontari Poe: 0/16
Jerrell Powe: 0/10

That’s a combined 11.5 sacks in 281 games played. That’s 0.04 sacks per game as a group. If you’re wondering, that means that as a group they average a sack every 24.4 games.

Let that sink in.

Of those eight players only Jackson and Dixon are averaging more than one sack per 16 games played, Jackson at 1.36 and Dixon at 1.82. Dixon isn’t even a lock to make the team (although I wouldn’t be at all surprised after looking at this list and knowing he played in the Jets system). If Jackson and Dixon both play all 16 games their career averages say they will COMBINE for 3 sacks. Thus far in their careers, that’s the BEST KC has to offer.

Under Romeo Crennel’s gap control 3-4 system you could at least make the excuse that it wasn’t the down linemen’s job to rush the QB in the base package. However, new defensive coordinator Bob Sutton is supposed to be making the change to an attacking 3-4 scheme. If that is going to work they are going to have to do a better job of applying some pressure from the defensive line.

Jackson showed some flashes last season. His 3 sacks last season were more than he had in his first three seasons combined (2). Still, we’re only talking about 3 sacks. Former first round pick Dontari Poe MUST improve his push up the middle if he is ever going to live up to his draft position. His development is probably the most vital piece of the success of this entire unit. Allen Bailey was supposed to be an interior pass rusher on passing downs, but one sack in 26 career games doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of hope.

This is where Seymour comes in.

Now, the fact that Richard Seymour has 57.5 career sacks compared to the 11.5 combined sacks of the eight DL currently on the KC roster says about all that needs to be said. However, it doesn’t really address the concern that Seymour is 33 and his best play is behind him.

Seymour only played 8 games last season, so injuries are a concern. However, when he did play he still registered 3 sacks in his half of a season. In fact, in his last three seasons he’s recorded 14.5 sacks in 36 games. That’s 0.4 sacks per game or 6.44 sacks per 16 games. That’s still more than all of the current KC DL combined. All of that coming in his 30s.

If I look at the current KC roster the number one hole I see is that of an interior pass rusher. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that of the players available that Richard Seymour is the best player to fill that hole. Now, if Seymour wants to be paid like an every down Pro Bowl player, then it won’t ever happen. The Chiefs just don’t have that kind of cap space, and even if they did Seymour isn’t worth that kind of money anymore. However, at this point it should be clear to Seymour that he is no longer a hot commodity around the league. If he would accept a lesser contract and rotational pass rusher role I think it could be a win/win situation.

The Chiefs don’t need Seymour in their base 3-4. The front of DeVito, Poe, and Jackson should be just fine at stopping the run and freeing up the LBs to make plays. However, in the nickel and dime Seymour would instantly become their best DL. Not having to play every down would preserve his body and help him stay healthy. He could conserve his energy and possibly be even more effective in pass situations. I think this could extend his career another couple of years.

He would also bring more veteran leadership to a young team, as well as a very competitive (dare I say “nasty”) attitude that has also been lacking in the recent past. I really feel that adding Seymour could help catapult the KC defense into one of the best defensive units in football.

Andy Reid is obviously known as an offensive coach. However, when the Eagles were their best under Reid between 2001-2004 going 48-16 and advancing to 4 straight NFC Title Games and one Super Bowl they also had a great attacking style defense under legendary defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. The defenses during those four seasons ranked 2nd, 2nd, 7th, and 2nd in points allowed and 7th, 1st, 9th, and 2nd in team sacks. Yes, Reid is great with quarterbacks, but when Johnson passed away and the defense dropped off, so did Reid’s win totals. Without a greatly improved interior pass rush the KC defense (although talented) will not be able to approach the level of those great Philly defenses. I think singing Seymour at least gives them a shot.

If John Dorsey and Andy Reid want to field the most competitive team possible in 2013 they should seriously consider bringing in Richard Seymour. In my opinion it would fill the one remaining glaring hole on this roster. What do you think Addicts? I look forward to hearing your thoughts on Seymour and the KC pass rush in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!

In the hours before the 2013 NFL Draft word began to circulate that the Kansas City Chiefs would select Central Michigan’s left tackle Eric Fisher with the first pick in the draft. Once Fisher was selected it was believed to be just a matter of time before KC traded their current left tackle Branden Albert to the Miami Dolphins. After all, a team doesn’t need two left tackles. Albert was already on record as saying he didn’t want to switch positions and a team would be foolish to spend the first overall pick on a position of minimal importance like right tackle.

At least that’s what traditional NFL wisdom has said.

The reasoning for this is pretty simple. The long held belief is that you need an athletic pass protector at left tackle to protect the quarterback’s blind side but the right tackle doesn’t need to be as good of a pass protector and it is often more advantageous for him to be more of a run blocker. Therefore, sticking a great pass protecting left tackle over on the right side would be a waste of his abilities. It would be like putting a great running back at fullback where he spends most of his time lead blocking while his true talent goes wasted. A team would be much better served drafting a different position at first overall and picking up a less talented tackle later in the draft that would adequately fill the less important position of right tackle.

If that last paragraph is true for today’s NFL then the Kansas City Chiefs made a huge mistake in taking Eric Fisher first overall. Either that or they should have traded away Branden Albert at any cost. However, I think even the most “old school” of NFL fans have to admit that this traditional view of the right tackle position is probably at the very least in need of some updating.

This past week I read two fantastic pieces on this subject. The first is Examining Pressure: Are Left Tackles Overvalued? by Steve Palazzolo at Pro Football Focus. If you have ANY interest in this subject whatsoever you MUST stop reading this post right now and go read it. It is well worth the time.

The second was Evolution And The NFL from the blog NFL Philosophy. This blog is by a twitter user that goes by the handle @NFLosophy. He is a former NFL front office employee who posts on all things NFL. He’s a very insightful follow and I highly recommend looking him up on Twitter and definitely recommend reading the linked piece from his blog.

If anyone is concerned with the thought of the Chiefs playing Eric Fisher at right tackle this season or beyond go read those two pieces. I don’t know how you could read them and continue to have the same outdated beliefs about the right tackle position.

Here are a few highlights.

Both articles touch on the history of why we view the tackle positions the way we do. They both mention the game changing impact of Lawrence Taylor. His ability to impact the game by getting to the QB made every team want to find a player to do the same for them. These outside pass rushers lined up on the right side of the defense against the left tackle because they wanted the advantage of the QB not being able to see them coming, hence the “blind side”.

This became common NFL practice and to counteract it teams started looking for athletic pass blockers to play at LT to stop or at least contain these outside edge rushers. Thus was born the stereotyped roles of the tackle positions that some are still clinging to today. It doesn’t take a hard core football expert to watch football and see that QB pressure is no longer just coming from the QB’s blind side. Defensive coordinators are now sending blitzes from everywhere. Plus, as teams use less of the fullback position and split their TEs out like WRs more and more the right tackle no longer has the blocking “safe guards” that were often there 10 years ago. The right tackle is often “on an island” against a quality pass rusher just like the left tackle. The Pro Football Focus article does a great job of proving just how out of date those old tackle roles are in today’s NFL with statistical evidence.

According to their research, over the past five seasons 45.6% of their top rated pass rushers have predominantly rushed from the left side (meaning they line up against the right tackle). The number of quality pass rushers is creeping closer and closer to 50/50 on which side of the ball they line up on. In fact, last season 16 of the top 25 rated pass rushers were guys who lined up against the RT. Palazzolo notes:

2012 saw a big jump in production from left side pass rushers and not coincidentally, we saw 16 of the Top 21 pass protectors residing at left tackle. This brings us to our original question: are the best pass rushers really moving to the left side or are the right tackles simply getting exposed? The answer, of course, is “yes.”

Chiefs fans know all to well about RTs getting exposed having watched guys like Chris Terry and Barry Richardson get manhandled in the not too distant past.

However, the undervaluing of the right tackle position does not just stop there. Palazzolo goes on to illustrate that pressure coming from the QBs right is actually more disruptive. Over the past five seasons the PFF QB grades for QBs facing pressure from around the left tackle is -80.2 while the grade for QBs facing pressure from the right tackle is -130.6. This does actually make sense. If a QB sees the pressure coming he is more likely to force a throw to avoid the hit which will lead to more mistakes and a worse grade. What is surprising is that despite coming from the “blind side” pressure from the LT hasn’t lead to many more sacks. In the five year study 17.2% of the pressures coming from against the LT lead to sacks while 16.4% of those from against the RT did. So only 0.8% more pressures from the QBs blind side lead to sacks.

So since the difference in sacks allowed by pressures from the two sides is less drastic than the negative effect on the QBs passing shown from the grades listed above an argument can be made that in today’s NFL the right tackle position is having a greater negative effect on QB play than the left tackle position. This is how Palazzolo concludes his piece:

The right tackle should no longer be viewed as the athletic inferior to the left tackle and teams should change their team-building strategy to make this happen. Today’s passing NFL makes it a necessity to have two competent pass protectors on the edge and when scouting players, if a tackle is deemed to not be good enough to play left tackle, well you’re better off just putting him at guard rather than exploiting him at right tackle. There’s no hiding — defensive coordinators will find him.

The piece by NFLosophy has come to the same conclusion and specifically addresses how some teams are now evolving:

In the past, right tackles were considered more run blockers than pass blockers and were drafted as such. Defenses saw the weakness and are taking advantage of how slowly offenses are evolving to this tactic. Evolution is always playing catch up. However, this week we saw a couple of examples of teams realizing that the left tackle position has now become over emphasized. The best example is that the Jaguars decided that drafting Joeckel and playing him at right tackle was just as beneficial as playing him at left tackle. They realized that the gap between the importance of the left tackle and right tackle position isn’t as great as the general opinion would have us believe. They’re evolving faster than everyone else.

Now before any Chiefs fans get bent out of shape that the author gives kudos to the Jags for playing the #2 overall pick at RT instead of the Chiefs for using the #1 overall pick to do the same, keep in mind that KC was actively shopping Albert up until about a week ago. That implies that their drafting of Fisher wasn’t done with the sole purpose of playing him at RT like the Jags did with Joeckel. However, the fact that John Dorsey wasn’t willing to take less than top dollar in return for Albert shows that he does see enough benefit in having a great player at RT to stick to his guns. Someone with the outdated view of the RT position would have traded Albert away for pennies on the dollar so that he didn’t “waste” his top draft pick by playing him at the RT spot.

I don’t know if the Chiefs will sign Albert to a long term contract or not. I don’t know if Eric Fisher is still the long term answer at LT for this team or not. I do feel good about the situation now because I believe that if they don’t sign Albert to a long term deal it will be because they don’t think he’s worth the money he’s demanding not because they don’t value the RT position enough to play Fisher there. I just hope that if the Chiefs do sign Albert to a long term deal most KC fans will be smart enough not to flood blogs and message boards with comments like “Great, that means we wasted the #1 pick on a RT!”

That kind of thinking is obsolete in today’s NFL.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

As the dust settled on the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2013 NFL Draft there was a variety of opinions. Some fans loved it. Some fans hated it. Some fans had mixed reviews. However, there was one pick that seemed to have more questions and complaints than any other. That was the selection of Arkansas running back Knile Davis with their late third round pick. By now, most KC fans know the essentials about Davis. He was an explosive playmaker and productive running back against tough SEC defenses in 2010. Then he missed the entire 2011 season with an ankle injury. Finally, last season he (along with the entire Arkansas offense) struggled. Davis particularly struggled with fumbles last season. Davis’s fans list his size (227 lbs), strength (31 bench press reps), speed (4.37 forty yard dash), and production against the best defenses in college football in 2010 as reasons to have high hopes for Davis. His detractors point to his history of injuries and fumbles as reasons that KC shouldn’t have gambled on Davis when so many other highly regarded prospects were still on the board.

Before I made up my own mind I wanted to do some research because I didn’t really know much about Davis except for what I had read online from so called draft “experts”. So I set out to watch all the footage on Davis that I could find. After viewing it and making some observations I decided that I would put my findings together in a video for you. So I’ll just let the video take it from here.

Here’s my latest Armchair Addict Video Production, “Knile Davis: KC’s Newest Weapon”.

So what do you think Addicts? Will Davis realize his upside or will his fumbles and injuries get the best of him? I can’t wait to hear your thoughts in the comments.

October 07, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Anquan Boldin (81) attempts a catch as Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Javier Arenas (21) defends in the second quarter at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

As most of you know by now, today the Kansas City Chiefs traded away cornerback Javier Arenas to the Arizona Cardinals for fullback Anthony Sherman.

This news seems to have sent many in the Chiefs Kingdom into a frenzy.

I’m here to tell you why this trade is no big deal and certainly not something that anyone should be outraged over.

1. Javier Arenas was going to get cut.

This is the number one reason everyone needs to just take a deep breath and calm down. The fact that Arenas is a “more valuable” player than a fullback in most people’s eyes doesn’t really matter in this situation. KC has MILLIONS of dollars locked up in their top three CBs. They weren’t going to pay a guy over a million dollars to be the #4 CB when their cap space is tight right now. It wasn’t EVER going to happen. I understand that Arenas still has value, but so did Eric Winston and the Chiefs didn’t get “diddly poo” for him. The Chiefs have younger and cheaper options to fill the 4th/5th CB spots with. Guys like Jalil Brown and DeQuan Menzie are cheaper options and provide fine depth especially when you have three starting CBs already in Flowers, Smith, and Robinson.

2. The Chiefs will NOT be worse off on the field this season because of this trade.

Since Arenas was destined to be a cap casualty the Chiefs aren’t worse off for making this deal. It’s better to have a player that at least has a shot at making the roster in Sherman than a player that didn’t. Other teams know this, that’s why NO team was going to offer KC big returns for Arenas because they could all see the writing on the wall too. If Sherman ends up being the starting FB this season then the Chiefs actually improved their roster by making this deal. I understand that Arenas was an average nickel corner and return man, but he wasn’t going to see the field over the three corners that they are paying big money to. So KC isn’t losing out on his play at CB. There’s also the legit possibility that one of the young corners on the roster will play every bit as well as Arenas has (or better) if given the opportunity and Arenas had not lived up to his expectations as a return man.

3. This trade indicates that KC is likely keeping Branden Albert this season.

The easiest way KC could have cleared plenty of cap space was to deal Albert. Moving Albert would have cleared enough money to sign draft picks, pay your fourth CB over a million dollars, and have money left over to sign a few more free agents. The fact that they dealt Arenas this quickly after the draft tells me they may have already decided that they are keeping Albert for one more season. That means they will have two top caliber tackles to protect Alex Smith and open up holes for Jamaal Charles. Given the choice of having to deal Albert to afford guys like Arenas or dealing guys like Arenas to keep Albert, I think it’s clear that keeping Albert makes KC better this season.

So there you have it Addicts, I know the trade looks bad at first glance, but it’s really not a big deal. This is the business of football. You want to know how big of deal this trade is. It’s already been bumped off Pro Football Talk’s home page, it never made the ESPN home page, and even on the ESPN NFL page, it’s currently the 8th story down underneath stories about the Redskins name, a 49ers UFA, and the weather at EJ Manuel’s Bills workout, and this is just a few hours after the trade happened. We care because it’s our team and we tend to over value our players and in this case because we’re mad that the pick we got for Tony Gonzalez didn’t pan out. The rest of the league doesn’t see this as a big deal and neither should you.

Last season the Chiefs had six Pro Bowl players and went 2-14. They had six Pro Bowl players and never even held a lead for a second of their first eight games.

Two seasons ago they won the division and went to the playoffs but still got punched in the mouth in their final two games including an embarrassing blowout loss to the Ravens at Arrowhead in the playoffs.

The Chiefs have shown glimpses of being a good team but had major flaws: bad quarterback play, bad coaching, and perhaps worst of all, they were “soft”.

The Chiefs had addressed the coaching and quarterback problems prior to the draft. Andy Reid may not be perfect, but his track record compared to Romeo Crennel is off the charts. The Chiefs may not have an elite QB but Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, and Tyler Bray are definitely a step up from Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn, and Ricky Stanzi.

So coaching and QB play are going to be better this season, but you don’t go 2-14 and go without having a single lead for half the season strictly because of the coach and QB. Good teams, playoff teams, Super Bowl caliber teams have players that refuse to back down, refuse to quit, that punch back when they get hit in the mouth. They don’t ever quit. They don’t ever lay down.

That’s what has been SO hard for me to stomach as a KC fan the past few years. There have been times where I watched my team get punched in the mouth and they just laid down and took it. They had no answer. They had no fight. They were the scrawny kid on the playground getting pushed around by the big bad bully. I can take losing a game where both teams duked it out and the other team just made a few more plays. It’s disappointing, but there’s no shame in that. But when I went to the 2011 season opener and saw my team get curb stomped 41-7 IN ARROWHEAD by a bad Bills team, that was embarrassing. When I sat in the nosebleed seats and watched a REALLY bad Raiders team walk into Arrowhead last season and physically dominate KC on both sides of the ball I literally felt sick to my stomach, because it looked like the players had given up.

That’s why I love this draft class. That’s why every time I saw someone on twitter saying we should have drafted (insert name of flashy big name player here) instead of the guys like Travis Kelce, Nico Johnson, and Mike Catapano I shook my head. We have flashy players. We have Jamaal Charles. We just haven’t had enough power up front to always open up holes when the game was on the line. We have Tamba Hali and Justin Houston who can sack the quarterback. We just haven’t had the guys to stuff the run on first and second down to consistently force QBs into third and long situations. We have a shut down CB in Brandon Flowers. We just haven’t had an answer for TEs running wide open underneath.

We have the flash. We’ve lacked the guys willing to do the dirty work. We’ve been missing the guys with the guts, the heart, and the fight to make sure the “pretty boys” get on Sports Center.

I heard Eric Fisher’s coach from Central Michigan call him super competitive and “nasty”. That doesn’t sound like someone that will just accept getting pushed around.

I watched THIS video of Travis Kelce where he says things like:
“I like to get after it.”
“I like to play physical.”
“You’ll see me playing all the way to the whistle, sometimes that gets me in trouble but (smirks) I’ll leave it at that.”
You can’t watch that video and tell me this guy is going to be okay with a team coming into his home stadium and embarrassing him.

I hear people HATING on Knile Davis like he was the worst pick in the history of the NFL draft. The man is 230 lbs and runs a 4.3 forty! If they can fix his fumbling problems he can team with Charles to just wear defenses out. And those of you that are actually using Shaun Draughn as a reason that we didn’t need to draft a RB need to just stop. Seriously, stop it. You’re embarrassing yourself.

Another group of fans that dumbfound me are the ones that whined and moaned about the Kelce and Davis picks because of “this huge hole” at ILB, then complain that we reached for Nico Johnson. You know why Derrick Johnson has been able to rack up so many tackles the last couple of seasons? Because Jovan Belcher was constantly taking on blockers to free him up to get to the ball. You know who is possibly the best ILB in this draft at taking on blockers? NICO JOHNSON. You know who can help KC make stops on first and second down so that we can use Hali and Houston to rush on third and long? NICO JOHNSON. Will he have to come off the field on passing downs? Yes, but teams need a guy to stuff the run when the time comes. The Chiefs now have that guy on the roster.

What’s that you say? You’re upset with the Johnson pick because KC needs someone that can cover TEs. I’m glad you brought that up, that leads me to….

Sanders Commings. Commings is big and strong enough to play safety. He also has 4.4 speed. That means they can use him in a variety of ways. They can have him cover WRs or TEs. He can play in run support or drop back and play center field (literally, he was drafted to play center field in MLB). He’s part of the solution to some of KC’s recent problems that they have simply lacked answers for.

Eric Kush is a blue collar, underrated, small school center who can help push Rodney Hudson and provide depth in case Hudson has any more injuries.

Andy Reid called FB Braden Wilson the best blocking FB in this draft. That’s a guy that can help JC (and Davis) get the hard yards when the game is on the line. A guy that can turn 3rd and goal on the one yard line into a TD instead of a FG. He’ll do the dirty work.

Then there’s Mike Catapano. A favorite of mine. HERE‘s a video of him doing MMA training in the offseason (look at the guns). The NFLDraftScout scouting report says:

Well-built with very good muscle definition and plays as strong as he looks, manhandling blockers and tossing them with ease. Plays fast at all times with a motor that never quits. Makes up for lack of great leverage with his hustle and effort.

NFL Draft Bible’s twitter account had my favorite observation on this guy:

Sometimes its good to have a guy on defense who is just crazy. Hear Catapano fits the bill.

These are guys that can make the Chiefs better. They may not all fill up a stat sheet. They may not be guys that get on Sports Center or are even noticed at all by casual Chiefs fans, but these guys may just be the ones to do the dirty work that has been missing around Arrowhead for far too long.

That’s why I like this draft class.

That’s why I don’t care what grade ESPN may give it.

I’m not surprised that nationally nobody is talking about it.

It’s not that kind of draft class and I’m fine with that. It doesn’t mean these guys won’t help the Chiefs win. These may be just the kind of guys that have been missing in KC the last few years.

So fine, you want me to “grade” this draft class before any of them play a snap.

I’ll happily give it a “D” for dirty.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Finally the week of the NFL Draft has arrived. By this point you’ve probably read countless speculations and mock drafts in hopes of trying to figure out who the Chiefs might select. Well now it’s your turn. You might not have done enough research to know what prospects might be available in what rounds in order to make your own guesses, but never fear, for the second year in a row I’ve done the leg work for you. I’ve compiled a multiple choice Chiefs mock draft for you to complete. Using as many credible big boards as I could find (putting the most stock in NFLDraftScout and our own Merlin’s Drafttek) I came up with several prospects that most believe should be available when the Chiefs draft. There are two ways you could go about completing this mock, you could pick who YOU would select if you were in charge or you could pick who you think the CHIEFS will select. Either way, list your picks in the comments below and let’s see just who most KC fans have the Chiefs taking. Twice in this draft the Chiefs have selections so close together that I just gave you extra choices and you get to pick two of them.

Here we go!

Round 1, Pick #1 Overall

A. Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M
B. Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan
C. Dion Jordan – OLB – Oregon
D. Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama
E. Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia

Round 2, Pick #42 Overall

A. The Chiefs Won’t Trade Branden Albert
B. Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee
C. Larry Warford – OG – Kentucky
D. Jordan Poyer – CB – Oregon State
E. Margus Hunt – DE – SMU
F. Matt Elam – S – Florida

Round 3, Pick #63 Overall

A. Tyler Wilson – QB – Arkansas
B. Terrance Williams – WR – Baylor
C. Barrett Jones – G/C – Alabama
D. John Jenkins – DT – Georgia
E. Vance McDonald – TE – Rice

Round 3/4, Picks #96 & 99 Overall (Pick 2)

A. Christine Michael – RB – Texas A&M
B. Stedman Bailey – WR – West Virginia
C. Zac Dysert – QB – Miami (OH)
D. Kiko Alonso – LB – Oregon
E. Montori Hughes – DL – Tennessee-Martin
F. Leon McFadden – CB – San Diego State
G. Alvin Bailey – OG – Arkansas

Round 5, Pick #134 Overall

A. Kevin Reddick – LB – North Carolina
B. Brandon McGee – CB – Miami (FL)
C. Jordan Mills – OT – Louisiana Tech
D. Mike Gillislee – RB – Florida
E. William Gholston – DE – Michigan State

Round 6, Pick #170 Overall

A. Chris Faulk – OT – LSU
B. Dion Sims – TE – Michigan State
C. Everett Dawkins – DT – Florida State
D. Ryan Griffin – QB – Tulane
E. Jawan Jamison – RB – Rutgers

Round 6/7, Picks #204 & 207 Overall (Pick 2)

A. Ricky Wagner – OT – Wisconsin
B. Ace Sanders – WR – South Carolina
C. Sean Renfree – QB – Duke
D. Lawrence Okoye – DT – England
E. Damian Stafford – FS – Nebraska
F. Latavius Murray – RB – Central Florida
G. Micah Hyde – CB/S – Iowa

So Addicts, who do you got? I’m anxious to see your picks in the comments below. I’ll leave you with my predicted picks.

A. Luke Joeckel
B. Justin Hunter
D. John Jenkins
F. Leon McFadden & G. Alvin Bailey
A. Kevin Reddick
B. Dion Sims
C. Sean Renfree & F. Latavius Murray

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!

Thankfully, the NFL draft is almost upon us. After weeks of speculation, predictions, debates, and discussions fans will finally begin to get some answers when the Chiefs go on the clock with the first overall pick in just 10 days. I’m saving my final Chiefs draft pick predictions until next week, so it was a little bit of a struggle to come up with something new regarding the Chiefs draft that one of the other writers here at AA hasn’t already covered.

I originally thought I would write about whether or not the Chiefs would draft a QB in this draft. My question was, with both Alex Smith and Chase Daniel on the roster would the Chiefs feel obligated to fill other needs instead? I started to think about what round they might be willing to look at a QB and if there would be any QBs worth drafting left at that point. So I started looking at the specific spots the Chiefs are currently picking in the first 5 rounds (Picks: 1, 63, 96, 99, and 134). Then I started looking at a couple of prospect big boards to see what kind of QBs were likely to be available at those picks. I used both Drafttek’s and NFLDraftScout’s rankings to get a feel for where prospects were valued.

This got me thinking about other positions I thought the Chiefs might be interested in drafting. At that point I decided that instead of focusing solely on the QBs I would look at the Chiefs’ first five picks and see if I can find positions of need that may have draft value at the specific spots the Chiefs are drafting. John Dorsey is on record as saying he drafts for value over need. This means he won’t reach for a player that isn’t as good just to fill a need. Obviously the best scenario is when one of the best players available lines up with one of the team’s biggest needs. That’s what I set out to find, positions of need for KC that have a shot at providing the best player available when the Chiefs are on the clock.

In order to make the cut, a position had to have multiple players ranked within several slots of the Chiefs pick. That way it wasn’t reliant on one specific player still being available. Also, for the sake of this post I’m acting as if the Chiefs don’t acquire any additional picks. If KC were to land a 2nd rounder that may change things.

Let’s start with the first pick.

Round 1, Pick #1 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Offensive Tackle

I know not everyone is in love with the idea of KC taking a tackle with the first overall pick, but when it comes to value at the top of the draft OT is the clear winner. Luke Joeckel/Texas A&M was the top ranked prospect on both lists with Eric Fisher/Central Michigan ranking 2nd and 3rd and Lane Johnson/Oklahoma ranking 6th and 7th. So three of the top seven players available in this draft are offensive tackles. So if the Chiefs want to take the best player available they can do it and fill a need. I realize that if KC keeps Branden Albert this season that they would be essentially drafting a RT at #1 overall, but if they are out to take the best player and fill a need then offensive tackle is the way to go.

Round 3, Pick #63 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Wide Receiver

While this draft lacks an elite WR prospect like Randy Moss, Julio Jones, or AJ Green it is INCREDIBLY deep with starting caliber WR prospects. Prospects that could have easily been early second round picks in other drafts may find themselves slipping into the 3rd round this year. The following players all ranked in the #57-84 range on at least one of the big boards listed above:

Justin Hunter – Tennessee
Terrance Williams – Baylor
Quinton Patton – Louisiana Tech
Markus Wheaton – Oregon State
Stedman Bailey – West Virginia
Aaron Dobson – Marshall
Da’Rick Rogers – Tennessee Tech

Now, it’s a safe bet that not all of those players will still be on the board, but odds are that several of them will be. That would allow KC to take a player that could compete for the #2 WR spot as a rookie at the top of the third round. By the way, while John Dorsey was in Green Bay they took Greg Jennings at pick #52 and Randall Cobb at pick #64. In my opinion the only other position that comes close to the talent available at this pick is CB, and with the signings of Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson I think WR seems much more likely.

Round 3, Pick #96 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Quarterback

I could be wrong about this, but I have a feeling that there is going to be a couple of QBs still available at this point that many people had predicted would go much earlier. Basically, the fact that several teams addressed the QB position via guys like Carson Palmer, Matt Flynn, and Kevin Kolb make it less likely that many QBs will be drafted in the first round and may therefore push some of the guys originally mocked in the 2nd-3rd round back even farther. There are 8 QBs that have been regularly mocked in the top 100 picks: Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray, and Zac Dysert.

Over the past 5 years the average amount of QBs taken in the first 3 rounds is only 5.4. The highest number of total QBs taken in the first 3 rounds during that time is 7. In a year where most feel the QB talent is down, it’s not out of the question that there could only be 4-5 QBs off the board when the Chiefs select at the end of the 3rd round. I wouldn’t even fall out of my chair if a guy like Tyler Wilson or Mike Glennon that were at one point mocked in the 1st round was still available. That means if Andy Reid wants a young QB to groom for the future this may be the prime time to snag one. The Chiefs pick again at #99 so they could easily wait a couple more picks, but my guess is that if you give all the QB needy teams one more go around in the 4th round that there won’t be much left to choose from in the 5th. At that point KC would be looking at guys like Matt Scott/Arizona, Landry Jones/Oklahoma, and Sean Renfree/Duke.

Round 4, Pick #99 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Running Back

Thus far in free agency Kansas City has not added a solid #2 RB to back up and share carries with Jamaal Charles. This may be a sign that they are looking to add one in the draft. Like WR, there aren’t any “super-star” prospects in this draft, but there are several mid round prospects that could become solid NFL contributors. The following backs are all ranked between #93-116 on at least one of the big boards listed above:

Montee Ball – Wisconsin
Andre Ellington – Clemson
Joseph Randle – Oklahoma State
Stepfan Taylor – Stanford
Mike Gillislee – Florida
Marcus Lattimore – South Carolina
Christine Michael – Texas A&M

Again, not all of these guys will be available with this pick, but several will be and KC could have their pick of which one they like best.

Round 5, Pick #134 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Offensive Line

At this point in the draft teams are looking for depth and developmental prospects and there are MANY options that will be available to do just that on the offensive line at this point in the draft. I don’t know if any of these players should start as rookies, but I think many of them may eventually develop into legit NFL starters. A 5th round pick that develops into a solid starter is great value, period. Even if takes them a few years to get there. Here is a list of players that at least one big board has as still available for KC in the 5th round:

Khaled Holmes – C – USC
PJ Lonergan – C – LSU
Hugh Thornton – G – Illinois
JC Tretter – G – Cornell
David Bakhitari – G/T – Colorado
Dallas Thomas – G/T – Tennessee
David Quessenberry – C/G/T – San Jose St.
Brennan Williams – T – North Carolina
Jordan Mills – T – Louisiana Tech
Xavier Nixon – T – Florida
Chris Faulk – T – LSU
Ricky Wagner – T – Wisconsin

I didn’t do the last three KC picks (#170, 204, and 207) because I think by the time you get to the 6th-7th rounds it’s more about individual project players that a team likes than it is positional depth/value. It’s possible that a certain position slides that deep into the draft, but I’d just be guessing if I tried to predict which one.

So if KC were to follow this blueprint what positions of need would not get addressed? The most glaring is probably the defensive front seven. KC could use more depth on the defensive line and another pass rush option. They are also in need of a replacement for Jovan Belcher at ILB, but perhaps the recent FA signings at LB will fill that hole.

The other positions that were ignored here are TE and safety. While KC doesn’t need to spend a high pick on either of those positions, a mid round pick to add depth is certainly a possibility.

So what do you think Addicts? If KC drafted those positions next week would you be happy? Do you feel like it would provide good value? Would it fill enough positions of need or do the defensive front seven, tight end, or safety have to be addressed in the draft? I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

The Kansas City Chiefs may be in the worst possible position to get good value out of the 2013 NFL Draft. Normally, having the first overall pick is seen as a reward. Just a few months ago Chiefs fans were celebrating the fact that despite their season of agony, they would at least have that coveted first pick. Then they got a good look at the players available.

The thing is, this isn’t a bad draft class. There are lots of good players. So many in fact that there are going to be several first round caliber players still on the board in the 2nd round. There just doesn’t appear to be any franchise changing elite players at the top of the draft. So to recap, the best value in the draft is in the mid to late first round and early second round. Exactly where the Chiefs aren’t drafting.

That’s why I said they are in the worst position to get good value. Teams drafting in the mid to late first round will get good value with their first round pick and teams drafting at the top of the draft, while maybe not getting an elite player in the first, are at least rewarded with the ability to get another first round caliber player at the top of the second round. Unless of course you’ve traded away your second round pick.

Now, I’m not bashing Alex Smith. In fact, I’m slowly coming around to the idea of him and Andy Reid leading the KC offense. I’m not anti-Alex, I was just pro-Geno and high on the value that was going to be available for KC’s 2nd round pick. I get why Dorsey did it though. In a year when many experts think there isn’t a good starting QB in the entire draft (cue discussion #1,272 on if Geno Smith will succeed or not), Dorsey was able to get his day one starting QB for a 2nd rounder. That’s not bad value (although other QBs like Carson Palmer and Matt Flynn are going for less). It just means that Dorsey traded away the ability to get value out of the draft in return for his starting QB.

That’s why John Dorsey needs to prove his worth and make a deal in order to get back into the 2nd round and get the most out of his first draft as KC’s GM. If the Chiefs stay put they are currently in position to get one starting (and hopefully Pro Bowl caliber) player with the first pick and then won’t pick again until pick #63. In a draft where the best value available is probably in picks #15-50 that’s not great positioning. Could KC land a day one starter with pick #63? Yes, but usually 3rd round picks start more as role players and if you’re lucky then they eventually turn into starters.

So if KC wants more then one day one impact player from this draft class John Dorsey needs to make a move. The most likely deal is that he moves Branden Albert to the Dolphins for their 2nd round pick (#42). Many KC fans don’t like this move. I’ve stated before in posts that my basic feeling is that if they don’t like Alert (for whatever reason) we might as well get something for him. However, that may force KC to stay put at #1 overall to draft his replacement. Trading the first pick would be the other obvious way to pick up another pick or two and get more value out of this draft. However, other teams are looking at the same draft board we are and may be unlikely to trade up in a draft short on elite talent. As has been discussed on multiple occasions, the best hope KC has is that somebody wants to move up to take Geno Smith since QBs are typically the only position worth trading up to #1 for (cue discussion #1,273 on wether or not Geno is worth it or not). The final option would be to see if Dorsey could perhaps package his two 3rd round picks in return for moving up into the early to mid 2nd round if there was a certain player they felt was worth it.

Bottom line, I really want KC to get back into the 2nd round of this draft. I believe there is a good chance that a player that they could get in the #30-50 range could end up having just as much of an impact as the player they take with their first pick. Here are a list of some of the players that are in the #30-50 range on most big boards:

Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford
Eric Reid – S – LSU
Matt Elam – S – Florida
Kevin Minter – LB – LSU
Arthur Brown – LB – KSU
Eddie Lacy – RB – Alabama
DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson
Robert Woods – WR – USC
Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee

So what do you think Addicts? Do you want KC to get back into the 2nd round as badly as I do? Do you have faith that new GM John Dorsey can get it done? Are you okay with trading away Albert, the first overall pick, or our two 3rd round picks in order to get it done? I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!

Say what you will about the moves that new Chiefs GM John Dorsey and head coach Andy Reid have made since they took control of the team, but one thing is clear. They are men of action. Since taking control they have systematically been remaking the roster. If you step back and look at everything they have done and how they have gone about doing it, a clear game plan emerges.

Step 1 – Evaluate the current roster and decide who you want to keep and who needs to go.

Dorsey and Reid clearly wanted to keep Dwayne Bowe. They decided Eric Winston was disposable. They franchised Branden Albert, but what exactly they plan to do with him remains uncertain. Finally, they decided that their QB was NOT on the roster they inherited from former Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.

Step 2 – Find their QB.

If you believe published media reports, Andy Reid took the KC job with the idea of bringing Alex Smith to KC to be his QB. Rumors of Smith to KC surfaced early on, but there was nothing concrete at that time. That changed after the combine. Shortly after the combine ended, reports surfaced saying that KC had agreed to a deal that would bring Smith to KC. So it appears to me that Reid told Dorsey that he wanted Smith, but they decided to wait to finalize anything until after they saw the QB draft prospects up close at the combine. Apparently they didn’t see anything at the combine that changed Reid’s mind. They dealt for Smith after the combine and Dorsey said at the press conference that Smith would be their starter for the foreseeable future. If any further proof was still needed to show that they weren’t going to commit very much to a rookie QB in this year’s draft they went out and committed multiple years and millions of dollars to Chase Daniel to be the #2 QB. The latest draft reports (i.e., rumor or smokescreen) is that the Chiefs are still strongly considering Geno Smith. My advice to KC fans would be to put no faith in those reports. A QB that is worth taking #1 overall is a valuable commodity. It is in KC’s best interest to sell Geno as just that in hopes of getting someone to trade up with them to take him. I believe the Chiefs have the QBs that will sit at one and two on the depth chart already on the roster. Now the #3 spot? Let’s just say that I don’t think Ricky Stanzi should get too comfortable.

Step 3 – Fill roster holes with solid (but not “super star”) free agent signings.

Reid and Dorsey have added several solid players that have upgraded the overall talent on the roster without breaking the bank for any one player. These signings include: Dunta Robinson, Sean Smith, Anthony Fasano, Mike DeVito, Donnie Avery, and Geoff Schwartz.

Step 4 – Thoroughly evaluate the draft prospects and set their draft board.

This is where the Chiefs are right now. They have reportedly had private work outs with multiple possible first round selections. Including:

Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Eric Fisher, OL, Central Michigan
Sharrif Floyd, DL, Florida
Luke Joeckel, OL, Texas A&M
Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia
Dion Jordan, DL, Oregon
Dee Milliner, DB, Alabama
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

It appears to me that KC is taking a good look at the top 10 prospects in the draft. This could be in part because they want to do their homework on just who they will take at #1, but it could also prepare them for a trade down within the top 10. It doesn’t appear that KC is spending a lot of time looking at prospects that are projected to go in the the second half of the first round. Since the only people that would move up to #1 are teams looking for a QB and all of those teams are picking in the top 10 that’s a smart move.

Step 5 – ???????

I’m really curious to see what comes next. Will the team wait to make any other major moves before the draft? What will they do with Branden Albert? Will they be able to move back in the draft? I think those last two are related. If the team’s top priority is trading Albert then I think it lessons the chance that they’ll trade back from #1. With Albert gone they would have to get a top LT prospect and even if they just traded back to around 8-9 there is a chance that the top LTs could all be gone. The only way I see them trading Albert and the top pick is if they can work a deal in the top 4 picks.

I also think that an Albert trade would need to be completed before the start of the draft. Albert made it known that he doesn’t want to play anywhere except LT, everybody knows that now. So if KC drafts a LT at #1 and then tries to trade Albert, teams will use that against them. Right now KC can tell teams that if they can’t get good value for Albert that they’ll just keep him to play LT and draft another position in the first round.

That’s why I’m anxious to see if anything happens in the next few weeks. If Dorsey and Reid REALLY liked one of the LTs that they visited and are set on drafting him at #1 I think we could see Albert moved in the coming days. If they weren’t really sold on the left tackles then they may focus on trying to deal the #1 pick and keeping Albert for another season.

If I were running the show I’d trade Albert right now to Miami for their top 2nd round pick. I’d then use the money I saved on dealing Albert to sign Andre Smith away from Cincinnati. With my RT taken care of I’d see if I could get a team like Jax or Philly to come up to #1 to take Geno in return for their 2nd round pick as well. If they would do it, great, we can still take a top tackle in the 1st to replace Albert and we have two early 2nd round picks. If not, we take a LT at #1 and still have both tackle spots filled and a 2nd round pick.

So what do you think Addicts? What is Dorsey and Reid’s next move? Will we get any more answers soon? They clearly have a plan that they’re sticking to. I just wish I knew what it was. I do feel confident that these guys do have a clear cut plan and that so far they have done a nice job of improving the roster. I’m anxious to hear what you think in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is my first attempt at a mock draft this year. For my first mock I’m not going to put in any trades. I still believe there is a strong chance that KC may get someone to bite and move up to #1 to take Geno Smith, but for the sake of this mock I will keep everyone in their original draft slot.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Luke Joeckel
OT, Texas A&M

If Kansas City stays at #1 overall I think this pick is a done deal. I know many KC fans would like them to sign Branden Albert long term and go elsewhere with this pick, but I think the writing is on the wall. Even if they are able to trade back a few spots (cough, Bills, cough) I still think they will go OT, likely Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson whom they had a private work out with.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ezekiel Ansah
DE, BYU

New Jags coach Gus Bradley is a defensive guy. The Jags had the fewest sacks in the NFL last season. When you combine those things with already having a QB that they reached for on their roster in Blaine Gabbert, I think it will lead to them passing on Geno Smith and taking a defensive player. I think they need a true DE more than a LB (Dion Jordan) or a DT (Sharrif Floyd). That’s why I have Ansah and his amazing upside here over some of the other defensive players being mocked to them.

3. Oakland Raiders
Geno Smith
QB, West Virginia

This is the lowest possible spot I see Geno Smith going. The Raiders are in the process of rebuilding the mess left by Al Davis and the previous powers that be. Their cap situation is a mess. This isn’t going to be a quick turn around. Carson Palmer is an average at best QB right now and is on the decline. There is no way he is the long term QB for this team and I think the Raiders would love to get rid of his cap number. I have previously stated that I think Geno Smith’s upside is a player like Aaron Rodgers, a pocket QB with good athleticism, great accuracy, and a solid but not elite arm. The Raiders’ GM Reggie McKenzie just happens to be from Green Bay.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
Sharrif Floyd
DT, Florida

No player has shot up mock drafts more in the past month than Floyd. The general consensus is that he will be a top five pick. The Eagles are supposed to be running a 3-4 base next season and with the loss of Cullen Jenkins they’ll need someone to play DE in their three man front. The pairing of Floyd with last year’s first round pick Fletcher Cox would give Philly two very talented interior players. Star Lotulelei could also be a possibility if he clears medically.

5. Detroit Lions
Eric Fisher
OT, Central Michigan

This pick is pretty simple. The Lions best player is a WR and the quarterback that they rely on to get him the ball has some injury history. They have no LT to protect that quarterback and Eric Fisher is arguably the best player available at any position.

6. Cleveland Browns
Cordarrelle Patterson
WR, Tennessee

Ideally I think the Browns would like a new franchise QB, but there just isn’t anyone available here that is worth taking. With head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner running the offense they are going to throw the ball. So instead of drafting a QB they’ll get Brandon Weeden the best weapon available. Pairing Patterson with Josh Gordon would give Weeden two great young targets to use to help open up the field for Trent Richardson. Watch for a possible trade down here as well.

7. Arizona Cardinals
Chance Warmack
OG, Alabama

Like Cleveland, the Cards would love to go QB here. However, after working with Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck, new Cards coach Bruce Arians knows what a good young QB looks like and I think he’ll realize that there isn’t a QB like them on the board here. If he’s going to get by for a year with a bad QB, that QB is going to need better protection than what the Cards have had up front recently. This pick could also be Lane Johnson, but Warmack is the higher rated player and safer pick.

8. Buffalo Bills
Ryan Nassib
QB, Syracuse

I still think the Bills will feel pressured to trade up to #1 overall in order to take Geno Smith, but since I said I wouldn’t do any trades in this mock Nassib is plan B. Nassib seems to be the #2 QB in the draft at this point and obviously he has an advantage with his college coach now running things for the Bills. Do I think Nassib has any business being a top 10 pick? No. Do I think the Bills get a QB in the first round no matter what after Buddy Nix got caught running his mouth about needing to find his franchise QB and releasing Ryan Fitzpatrick? Yes.

9. New York Jets
Dion Jordan
OLB, Oregon

If Darrelle Revis gets traded as many believe, this pick could easily be Dee Milliner. Until that happens, I’m going with Dion Jordan here. Rex Ryan’s defense has lacked playmakers in the front seven recently. Jordan is a freak athlete that should help get some pressure on the QB.

10. Tennessee Titans
Dee Milliner
CB, Alabama

The Titans are probably really hoping that Darrelle Revis doesn’t get traded because I’m guessing Milliner is probably at the top on their wish list for this pick. Milliner could easily go higher than this, but if he’s available the Titans will jump all over him.

11. San Diego Chargers
Lane Johnson
OT, Oklahoma

This pick is a lot like the previous one. Johnson could possibly go before this, but if he’s there San Diego will pounce on him. The Chargers MUST land a LT to help give Phillip Rivers some time to throw. Don’t be surprised if San Diego moves up on draft day to ensure they land one of the top OTs in the draft if they think one won’t be there at pick #11.

12. Miami Dolphins
Xavier Rhodes
CB, Florida State

The Dolphins would love to land Milliner, but unless they are willing to trade up he won’t be an option here. That leaves either Rhodes or Desmond Trufant here if the Dolphins want to address their major need at CB. It’s a toss up between the two for me. I went with Rhodes because they lost a big CB in FA in Sean Smith and at 6’2″ Rhodes could fill that role of covering taller WRs.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Desmond Trufant
CB, Washington

If the Bucs land Revis, I’ll change this pick in my next mock, but for the time being the Bucs top need remains CB. With Milliner and Rhodes off the board that leaves Trufant as the top cover CB available.

14. Carolina Panthers
Star Lotulelei
DT, Utah

Lotulelei is one of the hardest players to mock at this point. He was able to work out at his pro day and reportedly looked good. If healthy (or medically cleared, to be more precise) he warrants a top 5 pick and has drawn numerous comparisons to Haloti Ngata. If teams don’t like the medical reports he could slide all the way to the middle rounds. It seems like Carolina has been looking for someone to anchor their interior defensive line forever so I think they will jump all over him unless the medical red flags are too much.

15. New Orleans Saints
Tavon Austin
WR, West Virginia

This pick is not need based, but the idea of giving Drew Brees arguably the most explosive offensive player in this draft is just too tempting. Austin has been moving up draft boards lately and getting to play indoors in the Super Dome with Brees throwing him the ball and Sean Payton drawing up plays for him would make him the front runner for offensive rookie of the year.

16. St. Louis Rams
Keenan Allen
WR, California

Offensive line and safety could also be options here, but Allen is a potential #1 WR and after releasing Steven Jackson it would appear that the Rams will rely more on Bradford throwing the ball. Pairing Allen with the recently signed Jared Cook at TE would greatly improve the Rams ability to throw the ball.

Here at AA we already told you about SI.com’s Bracket Challenge. Now if any of our loyal readers would like to test their basketball IQ against other AA readers and staff you can join AA’s very own bracket group.

I have created a group on SI.com’s Bracket Challenge. Simply go HERE and create or sign in to your profile (this is quick and easy and can be done by logging into Facebook). Then when it’s time to join a group simply select “Join A Private Group” and enter the following.

Group Name: Arrowhead Addict
Password: GoChiefs

I for one am no hoops expert, but it’s always fun to try and earn bragging rights over everyone else. So if any of you are hoops fans as well as Chiefs fans or just like getting in on the “madness” this time of year I invite you to join the AA Bracket Group.

The Scene: My car, 4:30pm on March 12th.

It had been a normal day at work and I had just picked up my daughter from preschool for our 30 minute commute home, I turned over the radio to KC’s 610 AM and anxiously waited to hear if the Chiefs had struck early in free agency. I was excited, like a kid at Christmas. We have Anthony Fasano, “great” I thought. We have Mike DeVito from the Jets, “solid move” was my reaction. Then came word that the Alex Smith deal was finalized AND that the Chiefs had committed a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract to Chase Daniel to be their back up QB. It was at this moment that the truth finally sunk in.

My body went numb. Turning my head so my 5 year old in the back seat couldn’t see I stared out at the open highway in front of me and let this truth wash over me. A single solitary tear running down my cheek.

Okay, so I’m being a LITTLE melodramatic.

While this might be a slight exaggeration of how things went down (we all know I looked online before I left to pick up my daughter to see if the Chiefs had signed anyone), it does paint the picture of my true feelings on the matter. I REALLY wanted the Chiefs to draft Geno Smith. Even after news of the Alex Smith trade broke and I publicly declared my Geno Smith to the Chiefs bandwagon dismantled I was secretly holding out hope that it still might happen. The “Geno to KC” fan club meetings were still being held at undisclosed secret locations, but once news of the Daniel deal broke the little piece of hope that burned inside me was eternally “snuffed out” (sorry, probably too melodramatic again).

I still think Geno will be a franchise QB. I still think that the Chiefs would have been better off in the long run (maybe not next year) with Geno and their 2nd round draft pick then with Alex Smith, but it’s time to move on. I’m now focused on how my beloved Chiefs can best succeed going forward with Alex Smith as their starting QB. Amazingly, I believe the answer does involve Geno Smith being drafted with the #1 pick, just not by the Chiefs.

I completely understand Patrick Allen’s position he laid out so well (check it out HERE if you haven’t read it yet) regarding the Chiefs taking Geno, but it’s time to move on. The comments section and entire Chiefs blogosphere still contains people with their hopes up that Geno will be in KC next year. It’s not happening. I’m not trying to be a downer here. I LOVE Geno Smith. I spent the better part of 2 weeks making a 14 minute video breaking down why he should go #1. Alex Smith didn’t put the nail in the coffin, but the Daniel signing did. If KC was remotely considering Geno or any other QB in the first couple rounds, there’s no reason to pay Chase Daniel what they are paying him next year. Remember, this is a team that watched Geno’s tape, watched him throw at the combine, talked to him face to face, and then went straight home to KC and traded for Alex Smith. They don’t want Geno. I’ve accepted it, and so should you.

It’s okay though, I still think Geno can help KC build a playoff team.

I’m now convinced more than ever before that Geno Smith will be the #1 pick in this year’s draft. It just won’t be Kansas City that selects him. I now feel confident that the Chiefs will be able to trade out of the top pick so that another team can move up and take Geno.

I’ve been on the Geno bandwagon for months. Not because of internet hype, but because I took the time to watch every snap of him that I could find and felt that he had “star QB” upside. I watched the good games and the bad and my thought was that even though Geno was inconsistent, he possessed the talent to be elite if he received good coaching and time to develop. My view was not shared by most draft “experts”. As recently as the NFL combine Mike Mayock said that he’d give Geno a late first round grade.

Then he went out and threw some passes at his pro day, indoors, in shorts, with no defense, no rush, to WRs he’s thrown to for years, with months of practice on those exact throws and routes, and now everybody loves him.

I find that hilarious.

Everyone says it’s a player’s game tape that matters most, not workouts, and then after a pro day they bump him up from a late first round prospect to a sure fire top ten pick (I’m looking at you Mayock). I may be 100% wrong about Geno Smith, but at least my opinion was formed from watching his games not some staged performance that doesn’t translate to NFL games. Now suddenly Geno is the hot name. The Jaguars sent their entire front office to go watch him, the Eagles gave him a major work over at a personal work out. The Cardinals need a QB and let’s not forget about the Buffalo Bills (more on them in a minute).

There is no FA starting QB market for teams to turn to. There isn’t anyone available that is going to improve a team at QB, even if your starter is Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, John Skelton, or Tavaris Jackson. That’s how bad things are out there. QB is everything in this league and there are multiple teams out there that are significantly worse at QB than the Chiefs are now. That gives KC great leverage.

I know many of you want Geno Smith. So do I. I know many of you think we’d be better off with Geno over Alex Smith. I agree. John Dorsey and Andy Reid don’t. So instead of spending the next month hoping for something that isn’t happening I’ve turned my attention to the much more likely scenario which is one of these teams that are starved for a QB trading up to get Geno. Just a few weeks ago this was very unlikely. All the experts said he wasn’t worth it. Now Geno is a top ten pick and the clear best QB in the draft. A quarterback that is a sure fire top ten pick and clearly the best QB in his draft class is a valuable commodity. A commodity that someone will value enough to make a deal with KC for. Now, KC may not get the return that others have for the pick, but they can still get themselves a pretty good haul.

This is where the Buffalo Bills come in. In my opinion, Bills GM Buddy Nix is not a very smart man. The same GM that gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a FAT long term contract and drastically overpaid for Mario Williams made public comments earlier in the season about the Bills needing to get a franchise QB (despite the fact that HE paid Fitzpatrick like a franchise QB just a couple years ago) in the draft. Then he managed to get tricked into calling the Bucs GM and was recorded doing it. He basically told everyone in the world that Fitzpatrick wasn’t going to be his starter going forward. He also basically said that finding a QB was the key to their success going forward. Immediately after this recording went public the Bills cut Fitzpatrick. So now the Bills sit at pick #8 in the draft with no starting caliber QB on their roster, an intentional public statement that they would draft a franchise QB on record, an unintentional statement about them needing a QB this offseason because their (then) current QB wasn’t good enough on record, and no hope that the one QB seen as a possible franchise QB will still be there when they pick.

The Bills have their backs against the wall. The fact that the teams picking in slots 2-4 are all showing interest in Geno helps KC’s cause. If the Bills want Geno there is no way that they can hope he falls to them now and since one of the other teams that may be interested is the Jags at #2, the Bills will have to go all the way to #1 in order to land him for sure. We all know that QBs are over drafted and this year will be no exception.

So what do I think KC can get from KC?

I think the minimum return is Buffalo’s first and second round picks this year AND their first round pick next year.

I know what some of you are going to say “Nobody is giving that up for the first pick this year!” Really? The Falcons gave up more than that to move up to #5 to take a WR. The Redskins gave up THREE first round picks and change to get RG3. The Bills could still claim that they got their franchise QB at a discount compared to what other teams have and would have had to pay in other drafts. Plus, the Bills will be at a disadvantage in dealing for the first pick compared to teams like Jax and Philly who draft in front of them. Therefore, they will be forced to offer more than those teams if they want their man.

Let the record state that I am on record as stating that Geno Smith will be drafted #1 overall by the Buffalo Bills. Write it down.

Geno Smith has always been my plan when it came to the Chiefs and the 2013 draft. I’ve just had to change that plan given where things stand now. Geno Smith is not going to be a Kansas City Chief, but he is still the key to the Chiefs’ draft. I just hope KC fans can all come to terms with that.

I finally have.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tonight at midnight the “official” NFL free agency period begins. For the past three days teams have been able to be “in contact” with players’ agents but no deals have been allowed to be signed. That all changes at the stroke of midnight tonight. Fans always want their team to go out and spend money on the highest profile players in hopes of landing a super star that will lead their team to a Super Bowl. That rarely if ever happens. The good teams use free agency to supplement their roster with solid players that fill gaps and provide depth. The teams that shell out huge pay days to a single player in free agency rarely get their money’s worth. With that in mind, I’ve come up with ten moves I’d like to see KC make in the coming days. There is no way that they will make all ten, but I think a combination of four or five of these could really help solidify the roster heading into the draft.

I’ll start with the offense.

1. Restructure Matt Cassel’s contract to be the backup QB.

I know this won’t be a popular opinion, but have you looked at the FA QB market? Jason Campbell, David Garrard, Rex Grossman, do any of these guys REALLY sound like better options to fill in for Alex Smith should he go down with an injury? It seems to me that Reid and Dorsey want to win games now. If that’s the case then you don’t want a mid to late round draft pick starting for you if your QB goes down. Cassel did well in NE and under Charlie Weis in KC when he had good coaching. He’s also a team first guy that would support Alex Smith. I think that under Andy Reid Cassel would be the best backup QB option available for KC. They can still draft a QB and he can compete with Stanzi for the #3 spot.

2. Sign RB LaRod Stephens-Howling from Arizona.

A lot of KC fans have talked about getting a new “thunder” to replace Peyton Hillis as the change of pace to Jamaal Charles’ “lightning”. However, Andy Reid doesn’t run the ball much so I’m just not sure a “thunder” is needed. Frankly, I’d rather they give the ball to JC on 3rd and short then some 240 lbs back up RB anyway. Stephens-Howling is only 26 years old, he’s quick, he catches the ball well, he plays special teams, he’s a good kick returner, he would be a perfect back up to JC, and best of all he will be relatively cheap in free agency. I say let him and Cyrus Gray compete for the 2nd string spot.

3. Sign WR David Nelson from Buffalo.

David Nelson is not a big name WR like Greg Jennings or Mike Wallace, but after giving Dwayne Bowe a huge payday the Chiefs can’t afford to pay another WR big FA dollars. Nelson is only 26 years old and was looking like an up and coming player before an ACL injury in week one last year ended his season. In 2011 he started 13 games and caught 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 TDs. He’s another big WR at 6’5″ and 214 lbs. The nice thing about Nelson is that he would push Jon Baldwin. If Baldwin responds and claims the #2 WR spot then Nelson could be the #3 WR, which would be fine since he shouldn’t command a lot of money. If Baldwin doesn’t step up then Nelson is good enough to step in and be the #2 behind Bowe. A lot of people are clamoring for a deep threat WR, but since Smith doesn’t have the strongest arm, I’m not sure KC could utilize that kind of player.

4. Sign TE Brandon Myers from Oakland.

Brandon Myers quietly caught 79 passes for 806 yards and 4 TDs for the Raiders last season. The 27 year old won’t be cheap, but also won’t command the huge contract that a big name would. Myers would push Moeaki as the first string TE. Myers isn’t a great blocker, but he isn’t a turn-style either. The TE position is going to take on an even greater importance with Andy Reid and Alex Smith at the helm of the offense. Both men have relied heavily on the TE as a safety valve. The Chiefs just can’t rely on Moeaki and his injury history. Plus, stealing one of the Raiders better offensive players makes this move all the better.

5. Sign C/G Evan Dietrich-Smith from Green Bay.

The 26 year old Dietrich-Smith has ties to new GM John Dorsey. He has versatility in that he could play at either center or guard. He has only started 9 games over the past two seasons so again he shouldn’t command a fat contract. Besides his connection to Dorsey, the other big plus is his ability to play all the interior line spots gives KC some options. If Hudson is slow to come back from his injury then he could start at center. If Hudson is ready to go then he could challenge Jeff Allen for a starting guard spot.

6. Sign RT Andre Smith from Cincinnati.

This is the one real big dollar free agent on my list. It’s probably the biggest long shot as well. Most people are assuming that the Chiefs cut Eric Winston to make room for the selection of an OT with the first overall pick. On a recent radio interview Winston said his release was a “philosophical thing”. Many have said that Reid likes a bigger and more physical offensive line. Andre Smith is a physically imposing 6’4″ 335 lbs (I’d wager he’s actually heavier then that listed weight). Smith and Albert would be a great pair of bookend tackles and would give KC the freedom back to do whatever they want with the first overall pick that they had before they released Winston.

Now on to the defense.

7. Re-sign Ropati Pitoitua.

This one seems like a no brainer to me. Pitoitua played well for KC last season and he has experience in the Jets 3-4 system that their new DC will be bringing to KC. I don’t know that Pitoitua should be a starter, but he’s a solid rotational player and should come with a cheap price tag. (Note: if recent reports of the Chiefs keeping Glenn Dorsey are true this move may not be needed.)

8. Sign DT/DE Desmond Bryant from Oakland.

Stealing another Raider, isn’t it great! Bryant might be the player I’d most like to see in KC on this list. He’s 26 years old, 6’6″ and 311 lbs, and has averaged 4.5 sacks over the past two seasons as an interior pass rusher. A defensive front of Bryant, Poe, and Jackson would be a very physically imposing one. Bryant would become the best interior pass rusher on the team and would possibly open Poe up for one on one blocking on passing downs. (Again, if Dorsey is re-signed this may not be feasible, but given the choice of Dorsey or Bryant I’d take Bryant hands down.)

9. Sign ILB Bart Scott from the Jets.

The Chiefs need a new starting ILB next to Derrick Johnson. Scott is getting up there in years and is a bit of a loud mouth. That sounds like a bad thing but it’s exactly why I want him in KC. Guys like DJ and Tamba Hali are both great lead by example guys but they aren’t much of a “rally the troops” vocal leader when the game is on the line. Scott would obviously know the Chiefs new 3-4 by heart and might give the talented KC defense the vocal leader they need to hold them accountable when things aren’t going well.

10. Sign FS Charles Woodson from Green Bay.

Another connection with GM John Dorsey from Green Bay. Woodson isn’t ready to retire yet, but may only have one or two seasons left in him. I love the idea of Woodson back there leading the Chiefs secondary. I REALLY love the idea of him mentoring Eric Berry. Woodson could play FS next year and then perhaps they could move the recently signed Dunta Robinson to FS after he retires.

There’s my list Addicts. What do you think? Who do you like? Who don’t you like? Who did I leave off the list? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below and I look forward to see if any of these guys end up in KC starting tonight.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last week I told everyone that despite speculation that the KC Chiefs might be interested in Alex Smith I was going to ride the “Geno Smith to KC” bandwagon until the wheels fell off. With it now all but certain that Alex Smith will be the next KC QB it appears that my bandwagon ride was short lived. This trade not only caused the wheels to fall off the bandwagon, it likely burnt the whole thing to the ground.

As regular readers may know, my outlook is usually a positive one. I like to take enjoyment out of following the Chiefs (despite their recent efforts to make that impossible) so I don’t usually like to dwell on the bad or the frustrating. There are usually enough voices out there spelling out every misstep the team makes anyway. That having been said, I want to take a second to explain why this trade initially upset me so much.

It’s NOT that I don’t think Alex Smith can be a good NFL starting QB.

It’s NOT that they gave up their #34 draft pick for him (although that does sting).

It’s that the dream of seeing the Chiefs draft a QB that turns into a star and leads them to a Super Bowl has been crushed. I’m 35 years old and have no memory of Todd Blackledge as a Kansas City Chief. The first QB that I remember is Steve DeBerg. That means that in my entire lifetime as a Chiefs fan I have never seen them commit a high draft pick to a QB. I have watched year after year as other teams drafted QBs that eventually led them to championships. I wasn’t thinking that KC would land the next Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in this draft or even the next Andrew Luck or RG3, but the next Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, or Joe Flacco seemed at least possible.

That’s what drafting Geno Smith #1 overall would have been for me. It would have opened the door to the possibility of that dream coming true for the team I loved. Was I confident that Geno would turn into that guy? No, but I was willing to chance that for a shot at greatness. In my opinion the best way to win a Super Bowl is to hit on a big time QB and you can only hit on one if you’re willing to try. This trade meant that for the foreseeable future KC is not willing to risk it. They’re going to play it safe. The realization that this dream is now dead took the wind out my sails. To be honest, it was probably two full days before I even started reading any Chiefs related material again because it was just too depressing for me.

I’d love to sit here and say that I’m over it now. That I no longer feel that way and that I’m now 100% convinced that trading for Alex Smith was the right thing to do, but that would be a lie. I still feel bummed about the loss of possibility that I saw in Geno Smith but now that my “I don’t want Alex Smith! I want our OWN QB!” hissy fit is about over the rational part of my brain is starting to see the possible upside in Alex Smith.

First, Andy Reid and John Dorsey went to the combine and took a really close and hard look at the QBs that are available in this draft. They reportedly met with 8 different QBs while at the combine (Barkley, Bray, Dysert, Glennon, Manuel, Nassib, Smith, and Wilson). After watching these guys on tape, seeing them throw up close at the combine, and meeting with them face to face they went straight back to KC and traded for Alex Smith. That says something to me. Despite all the potential that “I” see in Geno Smith, the Chiefs weren’t interested. The Chiefs would rather have Alex Smith.

The “hissy fit” throwing emotional part of me says that the reason they want Alex over Geno is that they are playing it “safe” and are scared of what might happen if Geno didn’t pan out. However, as days go by the rational part of my brain has started to jump in with a Lee Corso-esque “Not so fast my friend”.

Is picking Alex Smith over Geno Smith really the safe and easy choice? These guys are taking over a team whose fan base flew banners over the stadium in protest over the old regime. This old regime’s #1 crime against the fans was sticking with a QB that they traded a 2nd round pick to get. The fans wore black to the games and left the stadium half empty for most of the season. These fans, the people whose money pays for their multi-million dollar operation are SCREAMING at the top of their lungs for these guys to end the 30 year drought of not drafting our own franchise QB and they still went straight home from the combine and traded for Alex Smith.

These guys aren’t stupid. They had to know that the average fan that was screaming for Scott Pioli to get fired would see the parallels between the Cassel and Smith trades and freak out. They had to know that trading for Alex Smith and having it fail would infuriate the fan base 100 times more than drafting a QB that failed would. Playing a rookie QB would actually be “safer” for their job security because people wouldn’t expect the rookie to be good right away and if he never panned out they’d still get credit with a lot of fans for at least trying.

That tells me that this isn’t about playing it safe. It says to me that these guys honestly believe that Alex Smith has a better chance of leading the Chiefs to a Super Bowl than Geno Smith or any other QB in this draft does.

I may not like that answer, I may not want to agree with that answer, but that’s the only logical explanation that makes sense, and this is coming from a guy that was in a full blown “I WANT MY GENO!!!” hissy fit just a few days ago.

The other thing that the logical part of my brain has started to pick up on is how it’s not just about them not liking the rookie QBs, they actually must see something in Alex Smith that they like. Why you ask? Because John Dorsey and Andy Reid have direct ties to other QBs that I’m sure could have been had for the same deal that they gave San Francisco, those QBs being Matt Flynn and Nick Foles. I know the Eagles have said that they want to keep Foles, but let’s be honest, he doesn’t fit Chip Kelly’s system and had KC offered them the #34 pick they could have taken a QB like EJ Manuel for Kelly to develop behind Mike Vick. Dorsey helped draft Flynn in Green Bay and saw him up close when he was there. Reid drafted Foles just last season and knows what he’s capable of. Despite these personal connections the Chiefs went after Smith. That tells me they see something in him that they think gives them the best chance to win.

So what could that be?

The emotional and ticked off part of me says that it’s to come be a play it safe, game manager, who will just hand the ball off to Jamaal Charles and whose personal contribution to the team will simply be not turning the ball over.

But then that pesky logical side of my brain starts sounding like Lee Corso again.

“Couldn’t they have trained a rookie to hand the ball off and not throw risky passes? Why give up valuable draft picks and enrage the fan base for that?”

I mean they couldn’t possibly think that Alex Smith could actually contribute to winning games, could they? Clearly Smith’s success in SF was all about Jim Harbaugh, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and their defense.

That’s what I was thinking until yesterday. Then two things happened, I read THIS blog post from a 49ers fan stating that Alex Smith’s improvement actually started the year before Harbaugh got there when they fired offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye (who KC fans know all about), and then I got an email from my step brother/fellow Chiefs die hard, Cory Zellers (props on the excellent info). The email included some numbers that he had crunched. Here’s a direct quote from his email explaining what he did.

I dug into his (Alex Smith) stats and settled on the last 2 seasons (including post season) plus 2010 after he returned from injury in week 14. This gave me a nice round 32 games (2 seasons).

Ultimately I wanted to take his best play (last 32 games) and ratio the attempts (and remaining stats) up to the average # of attempts for an Andy Reid offense. I know Smith was a “game manager” in SF and Reid has had pass first offenses his whole career. I knew there was going to be a big difference in number of attempts, but I was a little surprised at the results. I pulled together all of Reid’s seasons in Philly and threw out his first year (Pederson and McNabb) to come up with an average season’s passing stats.

I then ratio-ed up Alex Smith’s avg season from the last 32 games from 416 attempts (per season) to 562 attempts (Reid’s avg season). The results were not earth shattering, but I would be pretty happy with a season like that out of Alex Smith.

Here are the results. If you take the completion percentage (63%), yards per attempt (7.5), and percentage of TD passes (4.8%) and interceptions (1.3%) that Alex Smith has had over his past 32 games and increased the attempts to the typical Andy Reid season you get a season that looks like this:

354-562 (63%), 4,189 yards (7.5 YPA), 27 TDs and 7 INTs.

That’s a pretty good season by any standard and that’s what I believe John Dorsey and Andy Reid think they are bringing to Kansas City. For a basis of comparison, the closest QB numbers to that from last season are probably Matt Schaub’s. Schaub went 350-544 (64.3%) for 4,008 yards (7.4 YPA), 22 TDs, and 12 INTs. Would you have been okay if the Chiefs traded their 2nd round pick for Schaub?

I know what some of you are thinking: “Lyle, the reason Smith was able to put up that kind of completion percentage and protect the football is because of the San Francisco run game and defense that their team was built around, if you take them away and put the ball in Smith’s hands 562 times, he’s going to fail!”

I thought so too before I got the email above. I started thinking about Reid’s offense. Reid is often criticized for not running the ball enough, so it’s safe to say that Smith isn’t going to be following the same “run the ball and play defense” mentality that they had in San Francisco. He’s going to have the ball in his hands more. It got me thinking about another QB that switched teams under similar circumstances at a similar point in his career. This QB was seen as a solid starter but was let go because the team had a young QB that was seen as having a greater upside. In his two seasons directly before leaving he averaged 450 attempts per season, about 3,368 yards/season, had about a 65% completion percentage, and averaged 7.5 yards per attempt. Those numbers are pretty similar to what Smith has done over his past 32 games played. This QB went to a new team with a chip on his shoulder and a coach that built his offense around his abilities and his attempts jumped up to 554 in his first season with the new team and he threw for 4,418 yards which was over 800 yards more than his previous career high. Overnight he went from being “just an average NFL QB that lacks the elite talent to win Super Bowls” to one of the most prolific passers in NFL history, and eventually a Super Bowl champion. That QB is Drew Brees.

At this point I have probably lost all credibility with some of you who are now laughing at what an unbelievable Kool Aid drinking homer I am. Let me be clear, I am not saying I think Alex Smith is going to turn into Drew Brees. I’m not even saying I think Alex Smith will be successful in KC. I’m saying I think Dorsey and Reid think Smith will be successful in KC. I’m saying that I don’t think they are bringing Smith here to be Matt Cassel 2.0 or to just be some “play it safe” place holder who can help KC float around .500 while they wait to find the REAL franchise QB that they can win playoff games with. I think their plan is to make Alex Smith KC’s version of Drew Brees as apposed to KC’s version of Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer.

I don’t know if this will work and we’ll win a lot of games with Smith or if he’ll go down in flames like Matt Cassel did.

The idea of Alex Smith becoming the next Drew Brees is probably just a dream, crazy talk. But is it any more unrealistic than the idea of Brees becoming one of the most prolific QBs in NFL history when he left San Diego? Wouldn’t most experts have said that Brees wasn’t capable of doing it? Wouldn’t they have said that his success in San Diego had more to do with Norv Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates than Brees’ ability to play QB? Is Dorsey and Reid’s plan of building a Super Bowl winning team around Alex Smith any more crazy than my dream of them turning Geno Smith into the next Aaron Rodgers?

Look, I’m still bummed that they won’t be drafting Geno Smith with the first overall pick. I’m still stinging from the loss of that dream (and the #34 pick). I still have my doubts about Alex Smith being a QB that can take KC to where they want to go, but once I came to the conclusion that Alex Smith was not brought here to be the next Matt Cassel (a QB that the team had to work around) and that John Dorsey and Andy Reid must see Alex Smith as a QB that they can build around it at least made the future a lot more interesting. Once again I’m back to waiting anxiously for the next breaking Chiefs news to hit so I can see what else the team has planned.

That’s a start. It’s certainly an improvement over the “hissy fit” I was throwing a few days ago.

So where are you at Addicts? Still in “hissy fit” mode like I was? Excited to see what Smith can do? Taking a wait and see approach? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

Yesterday Paddy shared with you the latest KC Chiefs related gossip going around the NFL, first that the Chiefs are interested in trading for Alex Smith and drafting Luke Joeckel, and then that SF is reporting that a deal for Smith (to an unnamed team) is “effectively complete”. Please excuse me now while I now pound my head against the keyboard in frustration.

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(and yes, I actually did do it, my head is apparently drawn to y, 4, and 6)

Look, I get it. John Dorsey and Andy Reid have forgotten more about what makes a winning football team than I’ll ever know. They are professionals that have a track record of success in the NFL and I am a public school band teacher. So if they think that is what is best for the Chiefs the sensible thing would be for you to trust their opinion over mine. That having been said…..

ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME?!?!?!?!?!?!?

In this little scenario that Ian Rapoport lays out the Chiefs would trade away one draft pick to acquire a quarterback that would essentially be an upgraded version of Matt Cassel who I would assume that they will then release. THEN they would let a perfectly good LT walk in free agency and use the once in a lifetime chance at having the first overall pick to take a LT to fill the hole that they created by letting the LT that they already had in house leave town.

I’m sorry, but after typing that I feel the need to bang my head on the keyboard again.

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(not as many numbers this time, I must have aimed lower)

Meanwhile, while this INCREDIBLY FRUSTRATING rumor was taking flight, Geno Smith was busy cementing himself as the top QB prospect in the 2013 draft. Smith highlighted a strong combine performance by posting a fantastic 4.59 second time in the 40 yard dash. That is the exact same time put up by Cam Newton, it was only 0.04 slower than Russell Wilson, and was only 0.06 slower than the NFL’s “next big thing” Colin Kaepernick. It was actually 0.06 FASTER than EJ Manuel who was labeled going in as the only QB athletic enough to incorporate any of the popular read option offensive schemes into his arsenal. So at a time when the NFL is looking for great athletes to play the QB position, it appears that despite the fact that he prefers to stand tall in the pocket, Geno Smith is actually the best equipped to make something happen with his feet should he need to.

Now, I know what some of you are going to say. “Lyle, you don’t draft a QB because he looks good running around in shorts!” You know who agrees with you? Geno Smith!

4.56 40, 10.4 broad jump, 34 inch vert. Yet none of this defines me as a QB! The game is won between the ears, study the tape!

— Eugene Geno Smith (@GenoSmith_12) February 24, 2013

Smith gets it. He’s a film junky. He’s driven to be the best and is willing to put in the work to make it happen. Was his throwing session at the combine perfect? No. Did most consider it the best of all the QBs at the combine? Yes. That’s what really matters to me. That’s why I’m riding the Geno Smith to Kansas City Bandwagon until the wheels fall off. He is the BEST QB IN THIS DRAFT. The NFL is a QB driven league. We have ZERO NFL CALIBER QBs ON OUR ROSTER. With the first pick in the draft we have a chance to guarantee that we walk away with the best QB available. I DON’T CARE how he stacks up against previous first QBs taken. I DON’T CARE how he grades out compared to the top LTs or DTs in this draft. LTs and DTs don’t win you Super Bowls, really good QBs do. That is why QBs ALWAYS get drafted higher than the “experts” have them slotted on their big boards. Hitting on a QB pays off 10 times more than hitting on a LT. Hitting on a QB increases your odds of going to the playoffs 10 times more than hitting on a LT. You think Miami doesn’t wish they had taken Matt Ryan over Jake Long? Joe Thomas may just be the best LT in all of football but how has that worked out for the Browns while he has been blocking for Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and Colt McCoy?

I get that Geno has holes in his game. I get that he has some work to do. I get that he is in need of some coaching. Mike Mayock recently said he’s seen Geno Smith make all the big time QB throws, but he’s too inconsistent. You know who else has admitted that? Geno Smith. He’s flat out said that he still needs to work to be more consistent. My point is that if he has the talent to make all the throws, the work ethic to keep working, AND a coach like Andy Reid to mentor him, I like his odds to succeed. Is there still a risk? Sure there is. Could Geno bust? Absolutely.

I’ll still take Geno Smith and Branden Albert over Alex Smith and Luke Joeckel every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I’ll also take watching Geno Smith bust for my beloved Chiefs over watching Geno Smith turn into a Pro Bowl QB for another team while KC stumbles along in mediocrity with Alex Smith at QB knowing that Geno could have been ours.

But what do I know, I’m not a NFL GM or head coach. I’m just a blogger. A blogger that is going to keep riding the Geno Smith to KC bandwagon until the wheels fall off.

Now who’s with me?

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In case you missed it, HERE‘s my video on why Geno is worth the #1 pick.

Last month I gave you a look at the 2013 NFL Draft consensus big board right before the Senior Bowl. With the NFL combine about to get under way I thought it might be a good idea to give you a look at the updated version. I’ll be using many of the same sources as I did in the last edition. Volume 2 is a composite of the following rankings: CBS’s NFL Draft Scout, Walterfootball.com, Drafttek, Bleacher Report, Scout’s Inc, Draftcountdown.com, NEPatriotsDraft.com, SI.com, and fftoolbox.com. In this edition I’ll give you the players current rank, their previous rank from last month, and also the “ranking range” that the player had. The later being the highest and lowest ranking that the player had from the different sources listed above. Afterwards, I’ll discuss the latest board’s impact on the KC Chiefs’ draft.

You can see that despite the fact that no meaningful football has been played in the past month, the board has seen a lot of fluctuation. This is in part a result of how some prospects performed at the Senior Bowl (Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson), but it is also a result of scouts having more time to watch tape on the prospects. I suspect that we’ll see a similar fluidity to the board after the combine is over and as the actual draft draws nearer. Also, I’d like to point out just how much disagreement there still is out there. Take a second to look at the ranking ranges of these prospects. They are all over the map. There is no bigger example than Sylvester Williams who ranked in at #50 but was rated as high as #15 on set of rankings and as low as #93 on another.

So how does this big board effect the Chiefs’ draft? Well, first off, there are only 6 consensus top 10 players from these nine sources: Joeckel, Lotulelei, Werner, Warmack, Fisher, and Milliner. In fact, if you look at the ranking ranges all the other prospects had at least one source that ranked them outside the top 15. So ANY prospect (not just QBs) taken first overall that aren’t one of the 6 players listed above will be seen as a huge reach by some experts.

So will KC draft one of those 6 players at first overall? Recent reports have surfaced that Branden Albert has passed his physical with KC and that they are working to re-sign him. If this is true and KC comes to a deal with Albert, then Joeckel and Fisher seem unlikely picks. If KC were to let Albert walk, then they would be very much in play. Taking a guard 1st overall seems unlikely, even one as good as Warmack. Werner is strictly an edge pass rusher and with Hali and Houston on the roster he would seem a poor bet for the pick as well. That really only leaves Lotulelei and Milliner as reasonable possibilities if Albert re-signs. Both of these players would fill a need (although if KC were to sign Chris Canty who visited the Chiefs their need at DE would be reduced) and would likely be foundational players for KC for a long time.

So what if KC goes outside those top six players with the first pick?

In my opinion, if KC goes outside those consensus top 10 players listed above it would almost certainly be for Geno Smith. I know that John Dorsey recently told Adam Teicher that there isn’t a stand out QB, but according to these rankings there is. Geno Smith ranks in at #12 in these rankings. The next QB on the list is Matt Barkley at #33. That’s a 21 spot difference. Would I be okay with the Chiefs taking the 12th overall prospect at #1 if it meant that they were getting a QB that was 21 spots better than any other QB in the draft? Yes, yes I would.

Plus, I take issue with people that say we’ll get better “value” if we take a QB at #34 overall. I would expect that at least 3 QBs will come off the board before KC’s 2nd round pick. That means that the best QB available when KC drafts in the 2nd round will probably be ranked in the 40s on the overall big board. Meanwhile, experts all over are talking about how this draft may lack elite talent at the top but it has excellent depth. Case in point, there are exactly 34 prospects on this list that were ranked in the top 20 on at least one set of rankings. That means that there is guaranteed to be at least one prospect on the board when the Chiefs pick in the 2nd round that some had as a top 20 pick. So how is taking a QB at #34 that is ranked in the 40s when there is still top 20 talent left on the table better value?

I would argue that in a draft lacking in elite top talent but deep in overall value that reaching for Geno at #1 would actually be less costly than passing up solid first round talent at the top of the 2nd round to take the 4th or 5th best QB in a weak QB class. Frankly, if KC doesn’t take a QB at #1 overall I’d rather they waited until the 3rd-5th rounds to take one.

I understand what Dorsey told Teicher, but what do you expect him to say? “We think there is one guy that is clearly the best at QB and if we don’t get him we’re in trouble.” Why would he put himself into a corner like that? At this point I’m sure KC is trying to keep all of their options open. Am I saying that I’m confident that they’ll draft Geno? No way, I don’t have a clue. I’m also not ruling it out.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the matter. What do you think of this latest big board? Who do you see KC taking at this point? Where do you see the value in drafting a QB? Let’s hear your answers in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think it is safe to say that most Kansas City Chiefs fans approve of the Andy Reid hiring. I think one of the things that most fans like about Reid is his history of getting the most out of his QBs. There are a lot of opinions out there on what the Chiefs should do at QB next season, but even though there isn’t a consensus as to who the QB should be, there does seem to be a general trust in Reid’s opinion on the matter. In other words, a lot of KC fans seem to be taking an “I want (insert QB here) to be the QB next season, but ultimately I’ll trust Reid’s opinion on the matter” approach.

My question is, just how much trust do you have in Reid’s decision of who will be his QB?

Will you trust it even if he goes with your absolute last choice?

The recent quotes by Tamba Hali got me thinking, will you still trust his judgement even if he decides to go with Matt Cassel?

Now, let me start by saying that this is NOT a pro-Matt Cassel post. I don’t want Matt Cassel to be on the Chiefs roster next year, let alone starting games for the team I love. I’ve firmly established myself on the Geno Smith bandwagon, but if it’s not Geno I still hope they identify the QB that they feel is the best in this draft and take him first overall. I don’t care if it’s seen as a “reach” or “good value”. We need a QB and have a chance to get the best one in this class, there is value in that regardless of wether or not this year’s top QB is as good as previous #1 overall picks. That’s MY opinion. I know a lot of you agree and I know several of you do not. I’m not here to sway you to my opinion on drafting a QB #1 overall this week. I just wanted to clearly state for the record that I am NOT in favor of Matt Cassel being the starting QB so please don’t fill the comments section with angry rants about what an idiot I am for still backing Cassel.

Now that I have that on the record, let me lay out my “doomsday” scenario where Matt Cassel could be the opening day starter in 2013. This scenario starts with Reid breaking my heart and deciding that he doesn’t like a single QB in this draft enough to draft them with the first overall pick. He may pick one in the 2nd or 3rd round, but he doesn’t feel that they will be ready to start from day one as a rookie. That means that Reid will need a veteran to man the position until the rookie is ready. The options available to him will include keeping a current Chief like Cassel or Brady Quinn, acquiring a veteran from another team like Alex Smith, Matt Flynn, Mike Vick, or Nick Foles, or signing a free agent like Matt Moore or Jason Campbell. It’s also possible that Smith, Flynn, Vick, or Foles could be released by their current team for salary cap issues and would then be available via free agency but obviously their current teams would prefer to get something for them.

So in this scenario the first decision Reid has to make is if there are any free agent QBs that are better than Matt Cassel available. If none of the QBs currently under contract are released then this is debatable. I guess I would take Matt Moore over Matt Cassel just to have someone different, but do I have any faith that he is a better player? Not really. Their career numbers make them look like the same guy.

Matt Cassel: 58.9%, 6.6 YPA, 82 TDs, 57 INTs
Matt Moore: 59.1%, 6.9 YPA, 33 TDs, 26 INTs

Cassel is two years older and has many more starts, but there is very little evidence that Reid would be foolish to pass on Moore to keep Cassel who is already on his roster. So even though I don’t want Cassel around I’d have a hard time bashing Reid if he kept Cassel around instead of bringing in someone from this incredibly weak QB free agent group. Now, if Alex Smith were to be released and they could get him signed for a contract that was equal or less than Cassel’s I’d be strongly in favor of signing Smith, not because I think he’s clearly better than Cassel, but because he’d get a fresh start here and wouldn’t have the negative stigma attached to him that Cassel does.

While we’re on the subject of Alex Smith, let’s use him as the focus of our discussion on if they should trade for a veteran QB. If Chip Kelly decides Nick Foles doesn’t fit his offense and would like to deal him he’d be my first choice to trade for since he is young enough to be a possible QB of the future. After Foles though, Alex Smith is considered the next best option. I’ve already said that I would strongly be in favor of signing Smith if he was a free agent and Reid wanted a veteran starting QB, but would he be worth trading for? What if San Francisco wants a 2nd/3rd round pick for him? Is the difference between Smith and Cassel worthy of a valuable draft pick? Before you answer that, look at these three sets of numbers. First Cassel and Smith’s career numbers:

Matt Cassel: 58.9%, 6.6 YPA, 82 TDs, 57 INTs
Alex Smith: 59.3%, 6.6 YPA, 81 TDs, 63 INTs

Over the course of their careers these two are the same guy. Next, let’s look at their numbers over the past two seasons:

Matt Cassel: 58.8%, 6.4 YPA, 16 TDs, 21 INTs (in 18 games)
Alex Smith: 64.3%, 7.4 YPA, 30 TDs, 10 INTs (in 25 games)

Now that is a huge difference. If Andy Reid thinks that this difference is reflective of Cassel and Smith’s abilities then he very well may feel that trading for Smith would be worth while (I’m still not in favor of trading a 2nd/3rd rounder, maybe a 4th/5th). However, what if Reid thinks that Smith’s success was more of a factor of the coaching and stability that he received under Jim Harbaugh compared to his previous coaching staffs? What if we were to compare Smith’s two good seasons under Harbaugh to Cassel’s two good seasons under McDaniels and Weiss? Here’s what those numbers look like:

Matt Cassel: 61.0%, 7.0 YPA, 48 TDs, 18 INTs (31 games)
Alex Smith: 64.3%, 7.4 YPA, 30 TDs, 10 INTs (25 games)

Now we’re looking a little more comparable. Cassel is still behind Smith in completion percentage, YPA, and INTs but the difference is much smaller and Cassel actually has a sizable lead in TDs. When looking at these numbers, its not out of the question that Reid could think that these two are similar enough that it wouldn’t be worth giving up a draft pick in order to get Smith when he already has Cassel on the roster. Especially if he thinks he can have his draft pick ready to take over in a short amount of time.

So hear’s the question, is the current difference between Smith and Cassel reflected in their career numbers and numbers when they’ve received good coaching which are VERY similar or are they reflected in the numbers from the past two seasons which make Smith out to be the vastly superior QB?

The question is NOT which QB would Chiefs fans rather have. We all know the answer there would be Smith hands down (if they are the only two options). Andy Reid doesn’t have the negative stigma attached to Matt Cassel that we all do. I’m sure he knows that going with Cassel wouldn’t go over well, but ask yourself this “If Reid feels that Cassel and Smith are basically the same guy and the 49ers won’t release him, is it worth trading away a draft pick just to make us happy?”

As much as I DON’T want Cassel to be the starting QB next season I don’t think I want a head coach or GM that would trade away draft picks for the sole purpose of keeping their approval polls looking good either. Especially if he’s only looking for a short term solution until he grooms his next young QB. Of course he could avoid this situation all together by just drafting Geno Smith first overall and starting him from day one, but I digress.

So I’m putting the question out there to you guys. How much trust do you have in Andy Reid when it comes to the QB position? If he goes with someone you are strongly apposed to (be it Cassel or a free agent or draft pick you don’t like) will you still have faith? If he went with Cassel as a short term answer while he groomed a 2nd round draft pick would that effect how much you followed/supported the team? Maybe a better way to ask it is which runs deeper, your faith in Andy Reid with QBs or your hatred of Matt Cassel as the Chiefs QB?

I’m anxious to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!

As I watched Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick do battle in the Super Bowl yesterday I was reminded once again of something we all know all too well, the KC Chiefs REALLY need a quarterback. Whenever a team needs a new QB it seems that nothing else matters. Its all the fans can talk about. It’s all the media wants to talk about. It’s almost all that us sports bloggers can write about. I agree that the decision of who will play QB for KC next season is probably the most important decision. However, there is another decision that KC must make first that will have a huge impact on who KC gets to play QB for them. That decision is what to do with starting LT Branden Albert.

Now, before I go any further, let me be 100% clear. If the Chiefs have no doubts about Branden Albert’s long term health then it would be foolish to not re-sign him. However, most KC fans seem to be taking Albert’s health for granted. Blogs and KC talk radio shows are filled with fans saying that it would be ridiculous to draft a LT at #1 overall when you can just re-segn the perfectly good LT you already have. The problem with that line of thinking is that back problems can be a BIG problem for offensive linemen if they become chronic. That is why the state of Branden Albert’s back is so important to the Chiefs offseason.

Now before you start flooding the comments section with things like “I heard it’s not that serious”, “Albert said he is 100% healthy”, and “I saw pictures of him on Twitter doing squats, his back is fine now.” Let’s just all be reasonable and say that none of us know what the long term condition of Albert’s back is. We don’t know if it’s 100% healthy and no more likely to get injured next year as any other NFL player or if he has a degenerative condition that will progressively get worse and worse until it causes him to retire. We don’t know. We haven’t seen his X-Rays. Of course Albert and his agent are going to say its fine, they want to sign a big, fat, long term contract. It’s also in the Chiefs best interest to voice concerns about his back (even if they aren’t worried) in hopes of driving his asking price down. So I don’t see any point in debating if Albert’s back is fine or a problem, because it’s all speculation.

I will say, once again, that if they feel his back is fine then they should sign him long term and put an end to the Luke Joeckel draft speculation once and for all. That is what I’m hoping for. I think most of you regular readers are already aware that I am firmly in the “Draft Geno Smith” camp at this point.

However, I do want to discuss what might happen if Albert’s back is deemed to be too risky by the Chiefs organization. As much as we’d all like to brush his injury aside, re-signing Albert with serious questions about his back could be a huge mistake for KC. Look at this last season with the Chargers and Jared Gaither. Jared Gaither missed the entire 2010 season with a bad back. Then in 2011 he signed with our own Chiefs where he never started a game and was released after ten weeks. He then signed with SD and started their final 5 games and looked great. So they signed him to be their starting left tackle for last season. Guess what happened after only 4 games though? That’s right, his season ended with back problems and the Chargers were left with a huge hole at LT which caused problems for their offense all season long. That’s the thing with these back injuries, a guy can be healthy for a while but eventually it could come back to bite you. Gaither looked great at the end of the 2011 season and I’m sure Chargers fans were clamoring to re-sign him the same way KC fans are clamoring to re-sign Albert now. Albert could be able to play a game today, but that doesn’t mean there might not be long term concerns about his back. Granted Gaither had a much bigger history of back problems than Albert currently has, but KC should do their due diligence in checking out his back before committing a lot of years, money, and the safety of their next starting QB to him.

Finding a left tackle is important for any team, but this offseason it is especially important for KC because it will shape what they do in the draft. Many like myself would like to see them take a QB with the first pick. However, if they don’t like what they see when they look at Albert’s back then it will be hard to pass up Luke Joeckel at #1 overall when he seems to be the consensus best player on the board. Do I want them to pick Joeckel? No, I don’t, but if they don’t feel they can trust Albert’s health then I would understand it. Especially since there doesn’t appear to be anyone that they could draft in the 2nd round that could walk in and start at LT on day one.

There are only three LT prospects that most agree could be starters as rookies: Joeckel, Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher, and Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson. All three are now seen as early to mid first round picks. So if they are looking for a new LT for next season the only pick in the draft that they could fill it with is their first round pick. Otherwise, they would have to look to free agency.

In Green Bay (where new GM John Dorsey comes from) they didn’t sign big name free agents. They built through the draft almost exclusively (Charles Woodson being the one exception). So going out and signing a LT like Jake Long would be out of character for our new GM. It could happen, but it seems less likely than drafting one to me. There are a few other LTs that could hit free agency if they don’t agree to new deals with their current teams. Those names include Atlanta’s Sam Baker, the Giants’ William Beatty, the Saints Jermon Bushrod, and the Broncos’ Ryan Clady. None of those players will come cheap (although all will probably be cheaper than Jake Long). So the question again is if Albert’s back is a problem, do you see an answer in free agency? Long may be available, but he’ll be VERY expensive and has some injury problems of his own. The other players may not even hit the open market. I just don’t see a great (or likely) solution in free agency and I certainly don’t like the idea of drafting a QB at #1 overall and protecting his blind side with Donald Stephenson.

So needless to say I’m anxious to see what happens with KC and Branden Albert. If they don’t re-sign him, I will assume it’s because of health concerns, not because they just want to pass on their own solid LT to draft another one. I’m thinking that before we get our answer on who the Chiefs QB will be, we will probably get the answer to what is going on with Albert. That answer could very well tip their hand on what they will do early in the draft. It should be very interesting.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jul 24, 2012; Dallas, TX, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith speaks to reporters during Big 12 Media Day at the Westin Galleria. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you might have noticed that a few Kansas City Chiefs fans like the idea of drafting West Virginia QB Geno Smith with the first overall pick. We now have officially heard that this is exactly what Geno Smith would like too. Smith is down in New Orleans (along with most of the football universe) for the Super Bowl and made the rounds on radio row today. I’ve listened to three of the interviews he did and in each of them he specifically mentioned that he wanted to go #1 overall to Kansas City.

Now, this should surprise no one. Smith wants to be the first overall draft pick because of the money and recognition that comes with it. If Jacksonville had the #1 overall pick I’m sure he’d be saying the same thing about them. Still, it’s the first time we’ve heard him go on record as saying that he wants to go to KC and that he feels he is worthy of the #1 pick. That is something that none of the prospects at the Senior Bowl were willing to do. Say what you want about Geno, but he is clearly winning the PR battle for being seen as the #1 QB prospect. The PR battle won’t mean diddly-poo if NFL GMs and head coaches aren’t impressed with his performance on the field, but I like the fact that he is confident enough to say that he’s “that guy”.

I recommend listening to one or all of the interviews below regardless of if you are a Geno fan or a sceptic. He comes off as very well spoken, but also as someone that is very hungry to prove himself. The first interview is with KC sports radio 810′s Soren Petro. If you’re only going to listen to one, make it the one. The highlight is when Geno is asked about playing in KC:

“I understand the Chiefs are in the position where they possibly need a quarterback. They need someone who can help that franchise out. Not to bag on any guys there, it just is what it is. I believe I am that guy. With that position comes a lot of responsibility and a lot of hard work, which I’m willing to put in day in and day out. My goal is to be the best at whatever I do. I want to be the best in the league and I want to be a Hall of Famer. I want to work to get there no matter which team picks me. It would be great to be in the Kansas City red.”

He’s also asked about his sideline demeanor during some of WVU’s tough loses and why he skipped the Senior Bowl. It’s definitely worth a listen.

KC’s 810 Interview

Geno was also on a SD radio station. Even on a station of an AFC West rival he still didn’t hesitate to make it known that he wants to go to KC.

SD Radio Interview

Finally, a shorter (but national) CBS Radio interview where he tells the host:

“I do want to be a part of that Chiefs organization.”

CBS Interview

If you still just can’t get enough Geno OR maybe you think Geno is too full of himself for saying he should go #1 overall, I highly recommend this interview from the Scott Van Pelt show from before this last season started. In it he is honest and humble enough to admit that his stats are inflated by the system they run and the big play ability of his WRs. I thought it was impressive to hear a QB be that straight forward.

Preseason SVP Show Interview

I definitely agree with Geno. It would be great to see him in Kansas City red.

Last week the NFL world descended on Mobile, Alabama for the first real event of the NFL offseason, the Senior Bowl. In the big picture, the Senior Bowl isn’t a definitive assessment of how players will do in the NFL or where they will get drafted. In fact, many of this year’s first round prospects didn’t even participate. However, it does allow us to get a look at some draft prospects directly under the microscope of NFL talent evaluators.

In many ways, the game itself is an afterthought. In case you’re wondering, this year the South defeated the North by a score of 21-16, but by the time the game kicked off most of the NFL GM’s, coaches, and scouts had already left town. Most NFL personnel men use the Senior Bowl to see how the players react in practice. These players are thrown together with players they’ve never met and have to learn terminology they’ve never heard before. How well do they pick it up? How do they do when going against other NFL prospects in practice drills knowing all 32 teams are watching their every move? Who goes hard every snap of practice and who takes some reps off? Who listens to the coaching, picks up the system, and shows real growth in only a few practices? Do any of these players show leadership in this short amount of time? This is where the Senior Bowl really is valuable in the evaluation process. Plus, teams actually get to sit down and talk to some of these players face to face. The game itself is less valuable than the hours of actual game footage they already have on these players from games that really counted.

So at the end of this piece I’ll give you the highlights of the game, but first I want to talk about what players helped themselves or hurt themselves during the week of practice leading up to the game since this is what most NFL teams base their evaluations on.

I should note that since I wasn’t in Mobile, these evaluations were collectively put together by reading and following several different people who were there and noticed similar things from the same players. So if only one guy commented on a prospect looking good, but the others did not, I didn’t include him. A player had to be mentioned by at least three sources to be included. Sources included:

CBS Sports’ NFLDraftScout.com: @RobRang and @dpbrugler
NFL.com: @Gil_Brandt, @MoveTheSticks, @RapSheet (and anything that Mike Mayock says)
Walterfootball.com: @walterfootball
thesidelineview.com: @caplannfl
NEPatriotsDraft.com: @NEPD_Loyko
DraftCountdown.com: @DraftCountdown
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller: @nfldraftscout
National Football Post: @RUSSLANDE and @MattBowen41
FirstRoundGrade.com: @FirstRoundGrade
No website, but NFL Philosophy is a must follow on Twitter: @NFLosophy

QUARTERBACKS:

I’m going to just be up front with you about the QBs at the Senior Bowl. Very little was done to change perceptions of this QB class. Before the week at the Senior Bowl if you asked NFL draft “experts” who the best QB there was you would have had some answer Arkansas’s Tyler Wilson, some say NC State’s Mike Glennon, and a few say Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib. After the Senior Bowl practices, nothing had changed. Some were saying Wilson looked the best, some were saying Glennon, and a few were saying Nassib. Basically, none of these guys did enough to change people’s minds. If you were a big fan of one of these three before, they didn’t do poorly enough (in practice) to scare you off and none of the other guys were SO good that they changed your mind. Depending on who you talk to, any one of those three gave the best performance and the other two had “moments” but still have flaws and inconsistencies. So it may end up that the biggest winners at QB from the Senior Bowl were Geno Smith and Matt Barkley since the other QBs failed to take advantage of the extra time in front of NFL personnel men. Most people still seem to think that Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib are worthy of somewhere between a mid to late 1st round pick or an early 2nd round pick. Wilson, as expected, was the best interview of the three but had the smallest hands at the weigh-in (has been known to lead to more fumbles for some QBs). Glennon did not impress at the weigh-in where he was described as “thin and undefined”.

Florida State’s EJ Manuel reinforced what people thought of him going in. He’s incredibly athletic and has a good arm but is very raw. Even his biggest supporters don’t seem to think he should play right away, needing several years of good coaching to develop him. He is seen as having intriguing upside and if a team already has a QB and feels they can wait for him to develop he could go higher than his current ability would justify (and his performance in the game itself will only add to this).

Oklahoma’s Landry Jones didn’t do much to help his case. He did make an occasional throw that got people’s attention, but the big knock on Jones is that he checks down WAY too much and is afraid to take chances downfield. Also, Jones didn’t handle it well when plays broke down and he had to improvise. This reinforces my thought of Oklahoma QBs, that they are very reliant on their college system and coaches and struggle to read defenses on their own. If you still aren’t scared of Jones, I read one practice report that said Jones’ check downs and inability to handle pressure reminded them of our own Matt Cassel. (Run away!)

Miami of Ohio QB Zac Dysert probably had the worst week of all the QBs. Going in, there were some people including him in the same tier of QBs as Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib. However, Dysert was very erratic all week and clearly struggled to get his timing down. Before the Senior Bowl Dysert may have been in the discussion for KC for someone to look at with their 2nd round pick, but after his work in Mobile I don’t think that will happen. The National Football Post’s Russ Lande went as far to say “This week Dysert did not look like a quarterback with the talent to start in the NFL.” Ouch!

KC Outlook:

The Chiefs obviously need a QB in the worst way. None of the prospects at the Senior Bowl did enough to jump up draft boards to where they would be considered the “best player available” at #1 which is what the Chiefs are claiming they will do with the pick. My concern is that if they don’t take a QB #1 overall (cough, Geno Smith, cough), I’m not sure I want them to take a QB at #34. Let’s say at least 3 QBs go in the first round, that means KC is committing the #34 overall pick (which should yield an impact player) to a QB that is essentially the leftovers in a weak QB class. I say if they find a QB that they think is clearly the best in this draft, take him at #1 (cough, Geno Smith, cough). Otherwise, go get a place holder like Alex Smith or Matt Flynn (I just threw up in my mouth a little) and then take a flier on a QB in the mid to late rounds. I know EJ Manuel will be the new flavor of the month because of his performance in the game, but he needs a lot of work and I hate to use the #34 pick on a QB that probably wouldn’t be able to compete for a starting job his rookie year. I just worry about turning the keys to the offense over to the 4th or 5th best QB in a weak QB class.

RUNNING BACKS:

The 2013 running back class lacks elite first round talent. So there wasn’t a lot of focus on the backs that were in Mobile this week. That having been said, there were three backs that made a very good impression this week. In no particular order:

Johnathan Franklin – UCLA – 5’10″ 201 lbs
Mike Gillislee – Florida – 5’11″ 207 lbs
Stepfan Taylor – Stanford – 5’9″ 216 lbs

All three of these backs were seen as mid round picks prior to the Senior Bowl, but their strong performances may put them in competition for the #3 RB spot in the draft behind UNC’s Giovani Bernard and Alabama’s Eddie Lacy.

The fact that Kenjon Barner of Oregon was the biggest name RB at the Senior Bowl, but was not one of the top three backs that people were talking about probably isn’t good for his draft stock. Also, Robbie Rouse of Fresno State, though explosive, measured under 5’6″ tall and got destroyed during blitz pick up drills. He isn’t big enough to be an every down back and if he can’t handle blitzing LBs then it will be hard for him to see the field as a third down back either.

KC Outlook:

If KC doesn’t re-sign Peyton Hillis, they will need to find a #2 RB to spell Jamaal Charles with. I think given that they have greater areas of need and the lack of elite runners in this draft that the earliest they would look at a RB would be the 3rd round. There is a good chance that a couple of those backs listed (or all three) could be available in the third and one or two may even still be an option in the 4th. If so, there is a possibility that one of those guys could fill the role of JC’s primary back up. So keep an eye on those three (Franklin, Gillislee, and Taylor) at the combine.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

If I had to pick a position group that had the best week during Senior Bowl practices it might have been the WRs. There were four WRs that seemed to drastically help their draft status during the week. All four were listed as standouts by multiple sources. Again, in no particular order:

Marquise Goodwin – Texas – 5’9″ 179 lbs
Chris Harper – Kansas State – 6’1″ 228 lbs
Quinton Patton – Louisiana Tech – 6’0″ 202 lbs
Markus Wheaton – Oregon State – 5’11″ 183 lbs

You’ll get differing opinions from different sources, but the general consensus seems to be that Goodwin and Wheaton would make great slot WRs and Harper and Patton would be solid #2 WRs for most teams (some think Wheaton could be a #2 as well). On the down side, Texas A&M WR Ryan Swope looked outclassed by the guys listed above before he had to drop out due to injury and is probably dropping down draft boards. Former Michigan QB turned WR Denard Robinson didn’t look very good at WR in Mobile and clearly needs a LOT of coaching before he can play that position at the NFL level. He still possesses explosive play making ability so someone will take that shot on him. For what it’s worth, Robinson had the biggest hands of any WR prospect despite measuring in at only 5’10″ and 196 lbs.

KC Outlook:

I think this draft sets up really well for KC to get some WR help in the 2nd or 3rd round. When John Dorsey was in GB they were able to find guys like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and Randall Cobb in a similar range. There are several WR draft prospects that could rank as the “best player available” for KC in those rounds. Of the guys at the Senior Bowl, if Patton (probably not likely after his great week) or Harper were on the board in round 3, I think KC might have to take a good look at them.

TIGHT ENDS:

With the two first round talent TEs both being juniors, there wasn’t a lot of talk about the TEs at the Senior Bowl. I don’t know that a single TE there will be drafted before the 3rd round. However, there were three TEs that showed the size/strength to be an effective blocker and enough athleticism to contribute in the passing game as well.

Nick Kasa – Colorado – 6’5″ 271 lbs
Vance McDonald – Rice – 6’2″ 262 lbs
Michael Williams – Alabama – 6’5″ 269 lbs

I wouldn’t say any of these three were “stars” during the week of practice, but I think all three showed enough upside to warrant a mid round pick in April.

KC Outlook:

If both Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss could be relied upon to stay healthy then KC would be in good shape at TE. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. Moeaki has a lengthy injury history dating back to college and there is some concern that Boss’s concussion issues could cause him to retire. You add to that the fact that the TE position is an important part of Andy Reid’s West Coast Offense and it seems that KC may need to add a quality option at TE this offseason. Given the ability of the three guys mentioned above to contribute both as a blocker and pass catcher I think any of the three could be an option for KC in the mid rounds.

OFFENSIVE LINE:

If the WRs weren’t the most impressive group at the Senior Bowl, it would be because the offensive linemen beat them out. It’s not that the offensive line had a huge number of guys generating buzz, but possibly the two guys that impressed the most the entire week were both offensive tackles.

Eric Fisher – Central Michigan – 6’7″ 305 lbs
Lane Johnson – Oklahoma – 6’6″ – 302 lbs

Entering the week, Fisher was seen as a mid to late 1st round pick and Johnson a borderline first round guy. After just a few practices the two are now both viewed as guys that will likely go in the top 15 picks. No one else on the offensive line generated anywhere near as much buzz as those two, but there were several other guys that did well for themselves.

DJ Fluker – Alabama – 6’5″ 355 lbs
David Quessenberry – San Jose St. – 6’5″ 294 lbs
Brian Schwenke – California – 6’3″ 307 lbs
Larry Warford – Kentucky – 6’3″ 333 lbs

Fluker is a massive RT prospect. He isn’t the world’s best pass protector, but his long arms, freakish 87″ wingspan, and impressive size make his a potential mauler in the run game. Teams looking for a RT that can step in on day one will likely target Fluker. Quessenberry played OT in college but will need to add some bulk in the NFL. The real selling point on Quessenberry is that not only does he show some long term upside, he’s versatile enough to play multiple spots on the line so he would have great value as a back up while he was developing. Schwenke did well enough for himself that he may even challenge to be the 2nd C off the board after Alabama’s Barrett Jones. Finally, Warford quietly lived up to his reputation for being a mauler on the inside. He will likely be the #3 G in the draft behind Alabama’s Chance Warmack and UNC’s Jonathan Cooper.

Unfortunately, there were also some linemen that hurt their draft stock as well. Notre Dame center Braxton Cave was repeatedly dominated by the interior defensive linemen. Wisconsin OT Ricky Wagner struggled a lot with pass protection. Virginia OT Oday Aboushi disappointed some scouts with how he looked in practice during most of the week. Syracuse OT Justin Pugh, although looking solid at times, measured in with very short arms, to the extent that many think he will have to move inside to G and which could cause him to slide come April. Similarly, Kyle Long of Oregon measured a little short in the arms as well. He missed several practices with an illness, but did play in the game (and did pretty well).

KC Outlook:

With Fisher and Johnson moving into solid first round range, Fluker being strictly a RT, and the other OT prospects (Aboushi, Pugh, and Long) sliding a little bit, it appears that if Kansas City doesn’t re-sign Brandan Albert that their only option of drafting a starting LT may be at the #1 overall pick. I don’t like that idea, but it doesn’t appear there will be anyone available at #34 that should start at LT as a rookie. Of the other prospects that played well, I think Quessenberry and Schwenke could be mid round options to add depth to the interior of the offensive line.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN:

Ideally I would have split this into defensive linemen and linebackers, but there are two problems with that. First there’s the question of where do you put the DE/OLB pass rushers that could be considered either depending on the system a team runs. Second, if you put the pass rushers with the defensive line then there really wasn’t much to talk about in terms of LBs at the Senior Bowl. The top inside LB in Mobile was Alabama’s Nico Johnson, but he failed to impress during the week. In the entire front seven there were really only two guys that really improved their draft stock.

Datone Jones – DE – UCLA – 6’4″ 280 lbs
Brandon Williams – NT – Missouri Southern – 6’2″ 341 lbs

Jones was a physical specimen and terror on the field. He stopped the run well and was able to put pressure on the QB. I think Jones would be perfect as an attacking style 3-4 DE. Jones did so well that some are speculating that he may have jumped from a 2-3 round pick all the way up into the mid to late first round. Brandon Williams is a NT. A strong, stout, and surprisingly athletic one at that. Williams was an unknown to many before the Senior Bowl, but teams looking for a true NT for the center of their 3-4 may definitely target Williams.

Some of the biggest names in the front seven in Mobile had mixed reviews. BYU’s Ezekiel Ansah and SMU’s Margus Hunt both proved to be extreme physical specimens, but were very raw and in need of coaching out on the practice field. DTs John Jenkins from Georgia and Sylvester Williams from North Carolina flashed big time talent but would also disappear for stretches. Both of these two were already considered 1st round guys. They didn’t really hurt their stock, but I don’t know that they helped it either. Outside pass rusher Alex Okafor from Texas was much the same. He showed some explosion getting around the edge, but when the OTs got their hands on him he was often taken out of the play.

KC Outlook:

Early in the week I was excited about what I was hearing about Jones. However, as the week went on the reports were so good that it appears he may not be available when the Chiefs pick at #34. If he were to be there I think he could be exactly the kind of player that our DL has been lacking. A relentless motor type that is strong enough to stop the run and athletic enough to put pressure on the QB. At ILB KC could still target Nico Johnson, but it looks like he would strictly be a 2 down LB and would need to come off the field on clear passing downs. The only other ILB prospect from the Senior Bowl that KC may want to consider would be FSU’s Vince Williams who played well in the game itself.

DEFENSIVE BACKS:

The defensive backs were another group that had a strong showing during Senior Bowl practices. There were six defensive backs that seemed to help themselves the most, including several coming from smaller programs.

Robert Alford – CB – Southeast Louisiana – 5’10″ 186 lbs
Jonathan Cyprion – S – Florida International – 6’0″ 209 lbs
Leon McFadden – CB – San Diego State – 5’10″ 193 lbs
Jordan Poyer – CB – Oregon State – 6’0″ 182 lbs
Desmond Trufant – CB – Washington – 5’11″ 190 lbs
B.W. Webb – CB – William & Mary – 5’10″ 183

In terms of the CBs, Poyer and Trufant are probably in the top 5 at the position now while Alford, McFadden, and Webb proved themselves to be solid prospects that could go in rounds 3-5. Jonathan Cyprion earned very high praises from every single report coming out of Mobile. He’s probably one of the players that helped himself the most. Cyprion reportedly went 100% on every snap in practice, was very physical, and also showed some good coverage ability. He went from being a virtual unknown to many to a guy that could see his name called on day 2 of the draft.

KC Outlook:

I would be happy if KC ended up with any of the six players listed above. Trufant and Poyer could probably start as rookies, but KC would probably have to jump on one of them in the 2nd round after their strong showing in Mobile. The other three corners could be had later in the draft. They all three have starter upside but would probably need some time to develop. I’m really interested in Cyprion. If he was available in round 3 it would be a solid pick for KC. The reason I like it is because I think a Cyprion/Berry pairing would give the Chiefs a lot of options. Both are physical enough to play up in run support and athletic enough to drop into coverage.

THE GAME ITSELF:

Some of you may not agree with this, but as I mentioned before the game really doesn’t have much impact on a prospect’s draft status. If it did, the majority of NFL personnel wouldn’t be flying out of Mobile on Thursday. That said, I do want to address a few things. I’ll start with the QBs again. For the people saying that there isn’t a great QB in this draft class, the performances of guys that have been mocked in the first round like Wilson, Glennon, and Nassib didn’t exactly prove the naysayers wrong. Wilson in particular was disappointing for me. Yes, they are playing in a system that is new, with WRs that are new, but the defense isn’t exactly throwing a true NFL caliber attack at them either. At this point I feel like Geno Smith is KC’s only real hope for getting a QB at the #1 pick.

Obviously, EJ Manuel was the star of the show. His TD pass to Michael Williams was beautiful. He probably helped his draft stock more than any other QB prospect. As I mentioned above, I’m guessing that someone will fall in love with his upside and take him pretty high for a guy who is still so raw. The other thing he has going for himself is that he best fits the current trend of having a read-option QB out of all the QBs in this draft class. That having been said, I don’t think anyone should get SO excited about one good Senior Bowl performance that they start talking about Manuel as a QB that should be drafted to play right away as a rookie. Remember, guys like Charlie Frye and Pat White were Senior Bowl MVPs too. If you look at San Francisco’s handling of Colin Kaepernick, I think a similar timetable would be the earliest Manuel would be ready to play.

The other interesting player to me coming off the game itself is Ezekiel Ansah. Ansah started the week by impressing everyone at the weigh-in with how physically impressive he is. Then he followed that up with several days of very unimpressive practice where the general consensus was that this guy needed a TON of coaching. Then he shows up to the game itself and looks like arguably the most talented player on the field. There is no doubt whatsoever that Ansah has the sheer athleticism to make a major impact. The question is this, is Ansah another Jason Pierre-Paul that just needs some NFL coaching and he’ll turn into one of the better players in the league, or a Vernon Gholston where he never is able to translate his physical prowess into results on the field? I’m leaning towards the Pierre-Paul side, but I think there is enough questions to keep him from going in the top 10 where his physical talents may warrant.

Other players that got multiple praises for their performance in the game include Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Mike Gillislee, Sylvester Williams, Purdue DT Kawann Short, Vince Williams, and Robert Alford who played good coverage, racked up 5 tackles, and started the game off with an 88 yard kickoff return that set up the South’s opening TD.

Overall, it was an interesting week for draft die-hards like myself. If you can’t get enough draft talk and info I highly recommend following the guys I listed above as the sources for this post. I don’t agree with 100% of any of their takes, but when you take in all of their opinions combined you can usually get an idea for where prospects stand. Next stop, the combine.

Check out my other draft related posts:

2013 NFL Draft Big Board And The Kansas City Chiefs

Video: Geno Smith Is Worthy Of The #1 Pick

Chiefs First Round QB Quiz: Name That QB

Mike Glennon: A Possible “Plan B” For Chiefs QB

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a 2-14 season. They have a new head coach, a new general manager, and the first pick in the 2013 NFL draft. Given these circumstances, it’s understandable that KC fans have already put the 2012 season in the rear view mirror and are 100% focused on the offseason, especially the NFL draft. In fact, I would wager that most of you reading this are more interested in the upcoming Senior Bowl than you are in the Super Bowl match up of San Francisco and Baltimore.

The two biggest questions that most Chiefs fans have for Andy Reid and John Dorsey are intertwined. What will they do with the #1 overall pick and who are they going to get to play quarterback? There is a large number of KC fans (like myself) that are convinced that they should answer both questions at once by drafting Geno Smith #1 overall. However, others are not convinced that Smith is a player that warrants that high of selection. The real question then becomes what Reid and Dorsey think of Smith and the other players at the top of the 2013 draft. Both men have gone on record as saying they believe in taking the best player available and not reaching for a player because of positional need.

So these two key questions will ultimately be answered by how Reid and Dorsey construct their “Big Board” for the draft. No one knows what this big board will look like, but I thought for this week’s post I would try to give you a look at what others are saying in terms of how this draft class is lining up. I looked at 10 different big boards and then averaged them out to try and come up with a pre-Senior Bowl, pre-combine, master big board for this April’s draft. The rankings I used are from ESPN’s Scout’s Inc, CBS’s Rob Rang, our own Merlin’s DraftTek, WalterFootball, NFL Draft Countdown, NFL.com’s Gil Brandt, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, SB Nation, NEPatriotsDraft.com, and fftoolbox.com.

It’s not a perfect system since these lists ranged in length from 25-100 so not every prospect was rated on each list, but it still gives us a general consensus to see where prospects rank currently. Remember, this is not the order players are predicted to be drafted in, but a list of who these sources think are the best players regardless of position and team draft needs. Here are the top 49 players that received first round rankings from at least one of the sources listed above.

1. Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M
2. Star Lotulelei – DT – Utah
3. Bjoern Werner – DE/OLB – Florida St.
4. Jarvis Jones – OLB – Georgia
5. Damontre Moore – DE/OLB – Texas A&M
6. Chance Warmack – G – Alabama
7. Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama
8. Manti Te’o – ILB – Notre Dame
9. Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU
10. Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia
11. Johnathan Hankins – DT – Ohio St.
12. Dion Jordan – DE/OLB – Oregon
13. Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri
14. Keenan Allen – WR – California
15. Jonathan Cooper – G – North Carolina
16. Ezekiel Ansah – DE – BYU
17. Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan
18. Johnathan Banks – CB – Mississippi St.
19. Alec Ogletree – ILB – Georgia
20. Sam Montgomery – DE/OLB – LSU
21. Tyler Eifert – TE – Notre Dame
22. Kenny Vaccaro – S – Texas
23. Johnathan Jenkins – DT – Georgia
24. Jesse Williams – DT – Alabama
25. Matt Barkley – QB – USC
26. Barrett Jones – OL – Alabama
27. Tavon Austin – WR – West Virginia
28. Shariff Floyd – DT – Florida
29. Tyler Wilson – QB – Arkansas
30. Alex Okafor – DE/OLB – Texas
31. Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford
32. Cordarrelle Patterson – WR – Tennessee
33. Giovani Bernard – RB – North Carolina
34. Terrance Williams – WR – Baylor
35. DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson
36. Xavier Rhodes – CB – Florida St.
37. DJ Fluker – OT – Alabama
38. Sylvester Williams – DT – North Carolina
39. Matt Elam – S – Florida
40. Eric Reid – S – LSU
41. Justin Hunter – WR – Tennessee
42. Robert Woods – WR – USC
43. Kawann Short – DT – Purdue
44. Arthur Brown – LB – Kansas St.
45. Kevin Minter – ILB – LSU
46. Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma
47. David Amerson – CB – NC State
48. Tony Jefferson – S – Oklahoma
49. Corey Lemonier – DE/OLB – Auburn

I can pretty much promise you that by the time the Senior Bowl, combine, and private work outs are over the Chiefs own big board will look quite a bit different from this list. However, the elite prospects at the very top of the first round don’t usually come out of nowhere. So I think it’s probably safe to say that the first overall pick is someone in the top 10 of this list. So let’s look at those 10 guys through “Chiefs colored glasses”.

Of the top 10 prospects on this list four of them are outside pass-rushers that would play OLB in KC’s 3-4 defense. The Chiefs currently have both of those spots filled with above average NFL starters in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. I know they say they’ll take the best player available, but unless Reid and Dorsey plan on trading Tamba I think one of these pass rushers would have to grade out SO MUCH better than the other top prospects in order for a team with so many areas to upgrade to take a player at one of the few places they are currently set. So for the time being I am taking Werner, Jones, Moore, and Mingo off the table for KC’s #1 pick.

Next, despite Warmack being hailed as the best guard prospect to enter the draft in ages, I can’t see any team taking a guard first overall. Everyone raved about David DeCastro last season too and he was drafted 24th. Is Warmack SO much better than DeCastro that he should go 23 spots higher? I don’t think so. So I am taking Warmack off the list of possible picks for KC at first overall as well.

Next, between his poor play against an elite offensive line in the national championship game and the crazy dead girlfriend hoax drama I can’t see Kansas City even entertaining the idea of taking Te’o first overall now. Not to mention the fact that most believe that ILB isn’t a position that makes enough impact to justify drafting one that high, even if there wasn’t other questions about him.

So that leaves us with only 4 of the top 10 prospects left for consideration. Let’s address these four one at a time. I’ll start with Alabama CB Dee Milliner.

Milliner is the consensus best CB in this draft. He’s got good size at 6’1″ and 199 lbs. He’s a very physical corner and is an excellent tackler. His coverage skills are very good as well. That having been said, Milliner isn’t a ball hawk as he’s only totaled 2 INTs in each of his past 2 seasons at Alabama. His speed is good enough for the NFL, but he’s not a burner. I think Milliner is pretty much a lock to go in the top 10 picks, but his lack of big play ability would make him a hard sell for #1 overall. Taking Milliner there would be similar to taking Geno Smith #1 overall in that he’s the best player at his position, but may not rate out as high as guys like Joeckel and Lotulelei who most feel warrant the first overall pick. If Reid and Dorsey’s “best player available” mantra literally translates to the highest rated player on their board, then I don’t think it will be Milliner and if they are going to reach a few spots based on positional need it makes more sense to do it for a QB where the benefits of the pick working out are greater. I do think Milliner would make a lot of sense if KC was able to trade back a few spots but was still drafting in the top 10.

So, to sum up my thoughts on Milliner, great player, fits a need, probably won’t be the #1 overall pick, but is a candidate for KC if they trade back a few spots.

Next up, my man Geno Smith. I’m not objective here. I made a 14 minute long video that explained why he should be the #1 pick. There’s a link at the bottom of this post if you haven’t seen it and would like to check it out. Here’s my thought on if the Chiefs will actually take him. If they have Geno rated as a top 10 player as he is in these composite rankings, I think they take him. I know they are saying “best player available”, but if you have no QB and the best QB in the draft is one of the 10 best players available, you take him. QB is just that important, and I think Reid and Dorsey know that. If Geno is more like the 15-25th player on their board, I think they’ll pass, take one of these other players, and take a QB in the 2nd round. I honestly believe Geno will be the pick. I think he is the QB that impresses the most at the combine and workouts and Reid starts off in KC like he did with McNabb in Philly.

However, if I’m wrong then I think the pick is most likely one of the top two guys on these consensus rankings, Luke Joeckel or Star Lotulelei. Let’s start with Joeckel.

Luke Joekel is being hyped as the best LT prospect since Jake Long (who is also the last OT to go first overall). He is currently the consensus “best player available”, so given what Reid and Dorsey have said so far I think Joeckel has to be considered a strong candidate for #1 overall. I’ll be honest, I haven’t watched much of Joeckel, but several of the prospect evaluators that I respect the most seem very high on him and they would know better than I.

My take on Joeckel: If the Chiefs really don’t like any of the QBs that much I’ll be fine with the Joeckel pick, but not excited. Mainly because a great LT doesn’t assure you any playoff success. If you have a good QB to protect then they are great. If you have a mediocre QB then there is only so much a LT can do. Personally, I’d rather they resign Branden Albert and draft an impact player elsewhere (preferably QB).

Finally let’s talk about Star Lotulelei.

Most of you are going to hate what I am about to say. I think there is a strong chance that Lotulelei could be KC’s pick at #1 overall. I actually think that Lotulelei is a more likely pick than Joeckel given that KC has an opportunity to re-sign Albert. I know the idea of taking ANOTHER defensive lineman in the first round will make people want to pull their hair out, but Lotulelei is the real deal. I have a feeling that he may light up the combine similar to what Dontari Poe did last year with the difference being that he has the impressive game film to back it up. Last year people said that Poe’s size/strength/speed gave him the upside of a Haloti Ngata. Well, Star Lotulelei actually looks like Ngata on film, it’s impressive.

If KC doesn’t see a QB they like and resign Albert, I think Star is the pick. If Dontari Poe and Lotulelei both lived up to their freakishly high ceilings KC could have the most fearsome defensive front that the NFL has seen in a long time. They could pair them up with either Tyson Jackson (with a renegotiated contract) or a re-signed Ropati Pitoitua. I know a lot of KC fans wouldn’t like this pick, but in my opinion if we stay at #1 it would have the second biggest impact after taking a QB.

I don’t think we’ll have to wait until April 25th to know what KC is going to do. I think what they do with Albert, Dorsey, Jackson, Pitoitua, and possible QBs that they could bring in will give us a good idea of which of these prospects they are targeting.

For example:

If KC re-signs Albert, I think you can rule out Luke Joeckel (NOTICE: Please save your “they should move Albert to guard” comments, that’s NEVER going to happen, EVER).

If they restructure Tyson Jackson and re-sign either Dorsey or Pitoitua (I’m guessing Pitoitua since he’ll be cheaper and played for the Jets while Sutton was there) then I don’t think Lotulelei will be the pick.

If they trade for a Nick Foles, Matt Flynn, or Alex Smith then I don’t think they’ll go with a QB first overall.

So watch what the Chiefs do over the next month because I think it may just tip their hand on what they are planning to do with the first pick.

One final thought relating to my composite big board: If KC did take a QB first overall and didn’t have to draft one in the 2nd round, it appears that there might be some very good WRs and DBs that rate out right in the area where KC will be picking. Players like Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, Xavier Rhodes, and Eric Reid would all be great picks for KC in the 2nd round.

Regardless of what KC does make sure you tune in here to AA where we’ll keep you up to date on all the latest draft and free agency news.

Check out my other draft related posts:

Video: Geno Smith Is Worthy Of The #1 Pick

Chiefs First Round QB Quiz: Name That QB

Mike Glennon: A Possible “Plan B” For Chiefs QB

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

What an amazing weekend of football. There were multiple times that I found myself sitting on the edge of my seat. I kept thinking to myself “How amazing would this be if it was the Chiefs that were involved in a playoff game like this?!?!” With the Chiefs now having their new head coach and general manager in place they have filled two of the three critical spots that needed to be addressed this offseason: general manager, head coach, and quarterback. We won’t know for sure if the hires of Andy Reid and John Dorsey will bring about the desired results for a while, but on paper they look good. Reid is a proven winner that consistently took the Eagles to the playoffs, winning more playoff games during his 14 years in Philly than KC has in the history of it’s franchise. John Dorsey was in charge of college scouting for a team that built a Super Bowl winner almost entirely through the draft. It appears that Clark Hunt did his part to fill the first two sports with quality hires. That takes us to the quarterback position.

The Chiefs have the #1 overall pick in this April’s draft. Normally that would be great news for a team starving for a franchise QB. However, the general consensus is that there isn’t a QB worth taking this year. The “experts” seem to universally agree that KC should wait to take a QB until the 2nd round. This logic seems faulty to me. If it is a weak QB class, why would you want the 3rd or 4th best QB in that class? Even if the best QB in the class isn’t Andrew Luck or RG3, if he is still clearly the best QB in the class you have to get him. The QB position is just too vital to a team’s success to pass and hope that you hit on a rare 2nd round franchise QB.

So the question then becomes is there one QB in this class that is clearly the best of the group? I have watched a lot of games and footage of Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, and Mike Glennon and I feel like one of them is clearly the best of the group.

Geno Smith is that QB.

I don’t expect you to just take my word for it. I’ve put together a video of Geno Smith highlights to make my case. You won’t find any screen passes or quick slants where the WR does all the work in this video. What you will see is multiple examples of Smith making throws that I think translate to being a good NFL QB. All of these highlights are from this past 2012 season. So when you see all of these throws, think about how many throws of this caliber you have seen from Kansas City QB’s since Trent Green and the Dick Vermeil years. Geno Smith literally racked up more impressive highlight throws in one season than KC has had under the past three head coaches.

I keep hearing how Geno Smith “has bust written all over him”. I’d like anyone that feels that way to watch this video and then explain to me why that is.

There’s not much else for me to say that wasn’t in the video. For me the first pick is Geno Smith or bust. Also, Stedman Bailey (#3) is REALLY underrated nationally as a WR prospect. The guy has been playing with Geno since HS and the two seem to always be on the same page. With his speed, hands, route running, and history with Geno I’d be fine if they took him at the top of the 2nd round and kept them together.

If you want more on Geno Smith here are some other excellent posts:

Geno Smith: QBeast? by AA’s Ladner Morse

Geno Smith: Performance In Perspective by AA’s Nathan Bramwell

The Case For Geno Smith by AP’s BJ Kissel

Geno Smith: A Tale In Accuracy by AP’s JayhawksNChiefs

If after watching my video and reading those four posts you still don’t have any interest in taking Geno Smith #1 overall I’d love to hear why. Feel free to let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading (and watching) and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Welcome to KC Big Red! Like many fans of the Kansas City Chiefs, I received two slightly late Christmas presents last Friday from Chiefs owner Clark Hunt. First, Hunt “parted ways” with the much maligned GM Scott Pioli and quickly followed with an official announcement of the hiring of the new head coach Andy Reid.

Before I get to my take on the Reid hiring I want to take just a second to talk about Chiefs’ owner Clark Hunt. Simply put, Clark Hunt proved two things to me this week. First, he is not a cheap owner. Does he care about making money? Of course he does, but all of the owners in the NFL have “make money” at or near the top of their priority list. Clark Hunt has had to make two major hires since he took control of the team. Four years ago he made Scott Pioli one of the top paid GMs in the sport and now he has done the same with Andy Reid. Clark Hunt could have fired Pioli and Crennel and replaced them with a MUCH cheaper option than Reid and would still have been a hero to most in KC. Instead, between Reid’s payday and the buyouts of Pioli and Crennel Clark Hunt ponied up a hefty sum to get what he wanted. Which gets me to my second point…

Clark Hunt gets his man. Period.

Four years ago he wanted the best GM on the market, he wanted Scott Pioli. Clark Hunt got him. This year with reports buzzing that Andy Reid was a lock to land the Arizona Cardinals coaching job Clark Hunt stepped in and said “not so fast my friends”. He loaded up his interview party, flew to Philadelphia, and locked Reid up in an airport conference room for nine hours. By the time they were finally done meeting there was nothing left for Reid to do but go home and explain to his wife why they wouldn’t be making that trip to Arizona (where her family lives).

Maybe the Arizona job was more rumor (floated by his agent) than fact. Maybe the speculation that Reid would be a good fit in San Diego (where Reid owns a home) was purely that, media speculation. In the end it didn’t matter because Clark Hunt wasn’t taking any chances. He wanted Reid and he did what he had to do to get him. Four years ago when the Chiefs hired Todd Haley they were one of the last teams to hire their coach. This time Hunt wasn’t settling for anyone’s leftovers. The Chiefs were the first of the seven teams with openings to make their new hire.

I don’t know if Reid will be successful in Kansas City (I’ll tell you what I think will help in a moment). What I do know is that if he isn’t, I now feel confident that the Chiefs have an owner that will go out and get the best man available to replace him if/when that time comes. That’s really the most important quality a fan can ask for in an owner. Kudos to Clark Hunt.

Now on to my thoughts on the Reid hire.

I like it.

I was on the record as wanting Chip Kelly. The main reasons being that I thought he could give our offense the “jump start” that it needed and would be a good fit with Jamaal Charles (our best player) and Geno Smith (the player I want KC to draft #1 overall). The same can be said about Andy Reid. I know people complain he doesn’t run the ball enough, but JC doesn’t need 30 carries a game and I’d be fine if his touches matched those of LeSean McCoy the past couple of seasons under Reid. He may not come with the same “hype” that Kelly has going right now, but he comes with a MUCH bigger proven NFL track record (of which Kelly has none). His specialty is QBs and the passing game and that is where KC needs the most help. They also needed a big enough name to fill both Romeo’s shoes as HC but also fill part of the void left by Scott Pioli as the “head” of the football organization. Once again Reid fills that roll. So I am happy with the hire. (Side Note: with the announcement of Chip Kelly staying at Oregon and no signs that Gruden or Cowher are going to go back to coaching the Reid hire starts to look all the better.)

The question of the hour then becomes will Andy Reid be able to win in KC? I think that will rely on two key decisions that Reid will make in the next 4 months:

Who will be his QB?

and…

Who will be his defensive coordinator?

The QB part of the equation is obvious. We all know KC has been horrible at QB for a while. We all know you need a good QB to win in the NFL. We all know that Andy Reid gets the most out of the QBs that he has. The problem that I have is with the opinion that I am seeing in the national media that KC should pass on a QB in the first round and take one in the 2nd round. The thought being that since Reid has made lesser talent like AJ Feely and Kevin Kolb look good, there is no sense in using the first overall pick to reach for a QB.

I couldn’t disagree more. When were Andy Reid’s Eagle teams really good? The answer, when they had a Pro Bowl caliber QB in Donovan McNabb. A QB that Reid drafted #2 overall when he first arrived in Philadelphia. You can talk all you want about Reid’s family issues and players “tuning him out” because he’d been there so long, but the fact that he was “getting by” with QBs that he was coaching up like Kevin Kolb, Mike Vick, and Nick Foles had just as much to do with it. When was the last time Reid’s Eagles were good? When Mike Vick played at a Pro Bowl level in 2010. I don’t want the Chiefs to draft a Kevin Kolb or Nick Foles that Reid can coach up to “good enough”. Does anyone want our starting QB to be just “good enough” or “someone you can get by with”?

I have absolutely 0% interest in that. I also have 0% interest in trading for Kolb or Matt Flynn to start until Reid can coach up some 2nd or 3rd round pick. I want Reid to draft his McNabb with the first overall pick. I understand that all the “experts” don’t think this draft has an Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. I don’t care. Nobody thought Donovan McNabb was a sure thing when Reid drafted him. Philly fans HATED the pick at the time, but Reid identified the QB in that draft that had the physical tools to succeed in his system and drafted him. That is exactly what he should do with the Chiefs. I believe that QB will be Geno Smith, but if Reid likes Tyler Wilson or Matt Barkley then I trust Reid’s opinion on the matter way more than my wanna be scout, watching clips on YouTube, Armchair Addict self.

If you’re still not sold on a 1st round QB, I urge you to read THIS ARTICLE by RotoWorld’s Eric Stoner. He went back and looked at 10 years worth of drafts (2001-2010) and the QBs that were drafted in those drafts. He broke the QBs into four tiers: 1.Elite Franchise QBs, 2.Good Starting QBs, 3.Functional QBs, and 4.Backup or Worse.

Of the 13 QBs drafted that Stoner classified in Tiers 1 and 2, 11 of them were drafted in the 1st round of the draft. The only 2 QBs that he classified as a Tier 1 or Tier 2 QB that were drafted after the 1st round were Drew Brees (2nd round) and Matt Schaub (3rd round) and neither of them are playing for the team that drafted them.

Stoner does point out that recent draft picks Andy Dalton and Russel Wilson could help those numbers, but he left the two most recent drafts out of the study because he felt it was too early to judge some of the QBs this soon.

The fact remains that in a decade of NFL drafts from 2001-2010 there were 22 QBs taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Of those 22, only Brees and Schaub were Tier 1 or Tier 2 QBs. That’s 9% of the QBs drafted in that decade. Only four (18%) of the 22 QBs taken in the 2nd/3rd round even made it as a Tier 3 “functional” QB (Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, Tavaris Jackson, and Colt McCoy). The other 16 QBs (72%) were all backup caliber QBs or complete busts. So history says that if you take a QB in the 2nd/3rd round these are your odds:

1 in 22 (4.5%) will be an elite franchise QB

1 in 22 (4.5%) will be a good starting QB

4 in 22 (18.2%) will be a functional QB

16 in 22 (72.7%) will be a backup or worse

This is why KC MUST draft a QB in the first round, even with Andy Reid as the coach.

How do those odds change if you get the first QB taken in the entire draft? Take a look:

1 in 10 (10%) is an elite franchise QB (Eli Manning)

4 in 10 (40%) are/were good starting QBs (Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford)

2 in 10 (20%) are/were functional QBs (Alex Smith, Sam Bradford)

3 in 10 (30%) are/were backups or worse (David Carr, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell)

(Keep in mind, those classifications are Stoner’s not mine and one could debate what Tier some of those guys belong on, but it doesn’t change the results drastically)

Now, admittedly history says there is a 50% chance that the first QB taken will only be a functional QB or worse. However, the other side of that is that 50% of the first QBs taken in the draft are either elite or good starting QBs compared to only 9% of 2nd/3rd round QBs. That’s an increase of 41%. Given Reid’s track record with getting the most out of the QBs he has I like KC’s chances of ending up on the good side of that 50/50 split.

Anyone think that might just be part of the reason Clark Hunt made sure Reid was his guy? The QB position is just too important for Kansas City to put off and will have too much of an impact on Reid’s success for him to wait to pull the trigger until the 2nd round.

Stoner also pointed out that only two teams took a non-QB with the first overall pick (Houston with Mario Williams and Miami with Jake Long) during that time span. Both of those picks were successful, but Houston still didn’t feel like Williams was worth the price to re-sign and Miami may do the same thing with Jake Long this offseason. Do you see any teams letting a good QB walk to save cap space? What does that tell you about the value of the first pick when it comes to QBs and non-QBs?

The other major decision that will impact Reid’s success will happen much sooner (perhaps even today?) and that is who he will name defensive coordinator. This is important on two fronts. First, hiring a DC that would change to a traditional 4-3 would probably mean that KC would have more holes to fill on defense. That would mean it would take longer to get up and running and KC would have less draft picks and FA money to spend on fixing the offense and getting Reid the players he needs on that side of the ball. This had me 100% convinced that we should stay with the 3-4. Not with the current 2-gapping system, but with an attacking 1-gap blitzing 3-4 like Pittsburgh runs. However, after reading THIS ARTICLE about the similarities in front seven responsibilities in the 3-4 that KC runs and some 4-3s I will be opened minded about whoever they hire until we find out how they plan on using our current players.

The other reason the DC is so important is that getting pressure on the opposing QB is just as important to Reid’s success as having a good QB. Just like Reid’s best years came with great QB play, they also came when they sacked the QB. In Reid’s 14 seasons in Philly he only had three losing seasons. He also only had three seasons where his defense didn’t rank in the top 10 in sacks. Guess what? They are the same three seasons. In the three seasons where his defense wasn’t in the top 10 in sacks his teams were 15-33. In the seasons where they were in the top 10 in sacks they were 130-93-1.

You want to know how KC has ranked in sacks the past five seasons? Their average ranking is 26th. Yes, we have a couple of solid pass rushers in Hali and Houston but the new defensive coordinator must find a way to get more constant pressure on the QB. For many years in Philly he had that DC in Jim Johnson. After his tragic loss to cancer, Reid struggled to replace him. Last year the Eagles finished with the second lowest sack total of his tenure with the team. Reid must find the right guy to attack opposing QBs if he wants to recapture the success he had in Philadelphia.

If Andy Reid can do those two things, if he can succeed in finding a QB and a good defensive coordinator then I think what is already a great hire by Clark Hunt may just end up being a Super Bowl caliber hire.

Here’s to hoping.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

As the final seconds of the Chiefs 38-3 stomping at the hands of the Denver Broncos came to a close, it brought with it the merciful end to what was the worst season in the history of the Kansas City Chiefs. It was horrible from start to finish. There weren’t enough highlights to even fill a paragraph, let alone a post. The only real solace that fans of this team can take is that change is coming. That change should start today. The question of the day is, will the general manager be part of that change?

By the time the Chiefs and Broncos kicked off Sunday it had already been reported by Jason Cole, Jason LaCanfora, and Jay Glazer that Romeo Crennel would be fired after the season was over. I consider Glazer a safe source to trust, and when you add the others to it I feel confident that Romeo is gone.

Scott Pioli is another story. There were conflicting reports all day Sunday about wether or not Pioli will be retained. Hopefully, by the time some of you are reading this it will have been announced that he is being fired, but one way or another we should know sometime today. Even if we hear nothing, I would take that as a bad sign that Pioli may be staying.

If Pioli is fired then KC fans can enjoy the only upside to being the worst team in the NFL: hope for a new start. A new GM, a new coaching staff, the first overall pick in the NFL draft, and a new franchise QB to lead the team.

If Pioli is retained then all that hope is tainted. The new coach, draft picks, and franchise QB will all be selected by a man that we have no faith in. If Clark Hunt thinks that fans will flock to buy tickets to see a new coach and new QB and forget about all the “Fire Pioli” uproar from this season, I think he is sorely mistaken.

If you are among the few that think retaining Pioli is a good idea, then I encourage you to check out this document of Scott Pioli Facts put together by SaveOurChiefs. Here are a few highlights:

The Chiefs’ record under Scott Pioli (23-42) is the worst of any GM in Chiefs history.

The Chiefs’ record against winning teams under Pioli is just 3-18.

The Chiefs are 0-27 when their opponent scores more than 24 points under Pioli.

There are plenty more, but you get the idea. The Chiefs are not headed in the right direction under Scott Pioli, and keeping him would be a huge mistake. I hope that this post is soon followed by reports that Clark Hunt is cleaning house. Firing Romeo Crennel is a start, but Scott Pioli needs to follow him out the door.

Fingers crossed, at least we’ll know soon!

Thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

Nov 18, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs fans brought a sign to show their disappointment with general manager Scott Pioli (not shown) during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium. Cincinnati won the game 28-6. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

There are reports surfacing this morning that GM Scott Pioli will not be fired after the season comes to a close following today’s game against the Denver Broncos. Yahoo! Sports’ Jason Cole tweeted out that he had heard this from “a league source” that Pioli would stay but with “significant changes” (meaning Crennel would be gone, and they’ll be getting a new QB) and Pro Football Talk has a piece up this morning saying that Pioli staying and Romeo leaving is “the prevailing rumor in league circles.” I don’t know how much credit to give a “league source” and “league circles,” but if they are correct it sounds like many KC fans won’t be getting what they really wanted for Christmas (a complete turnover in the organization).

Also making the morning rumor rounds is speculation that if Pioli stays he will hire Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz as Romeo’s replacement.

So what do you think, Addicts? Do you place any weight in these reports? Has anyone’s head exploded yet? Would you be able to get behind Pioli staying if there was a new coach and a new QB? Regardless of what happens we’ll keep you posted here at AA during what should be an interesting offseason that is only hours away.

Oct 6, 2012; Austin, TX, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) throws a pass during warmups before the game against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve heard a lot recently about how there isn’t a QB in this year’s NFL draft that is worthy of a top pick. We all know that college numbers don’t tell the entire story in terms of a QB becoming a successful NFL starting QB, but I thought it might be interesting to look at some of this year’s top QB prospects and some of the recent top QBs taken. What I did is take this season’s three top prospects (Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Tyler Wilson) and look at their stats for their past two seasons. I then looked at seven other NFL QBs that were taken in the first three picks of the draft that also started at least two seasons to see how they match up. Instead of just giving you the information I thought I’d make a contest out of it. So can you match the QB to his numbers?

Here are your possible answers:

A. Geno Smith
B. Matt Barkley
C. Tyler Wilson
D. Andrew Luck
E. Robert Griffin III
F. Sam Bradford
G. Matt Ryan
H. Matt Stafford
I. JaMarcus Russell
J. Alex Smith

And here are your options:

QB #1
565-824 (68.6%)
7,841 yards (9.5 YPA)
86 TDs and 16 INTs
23-5 record

QB #2
551-776 (71.0%)
6,855 yards (8.8 YPA)
69 TDs and 18 INTs
23-3 record

QB #3
526-839 (62.7%)
7,025 yards (8.4 YPA)
45 TDs and 19 INTs
15-10 record

QB #4
387-583 (66.4%)
5,199 yards (8.9 YPA)
47 TDs and 7 INTs
22-2 record

QB #5
696-1016 (68.5%)
8,389 yards (8.3 YPA)
71 TDs and 13 INTs
17-8 record

QB #6
650-1079 (60.2%)
7446 yards (6.9 YPA)
46 TDs and 29 INTs
21-6 record

QB #7
420-653 (64.3%)
5572 yards (8.5 YPA)
43 TDs and 17 INTs
22-4 record

QB #8
554-833 (66.5%)
6,801 yards (8.2 YPA)
75 TDs and 22 INTs
17-7 record

QB #9
595-856 (69.5%)
7794 yards (9.1 YPA)
59 TDs and 14 INTs
17-9 record

QB #10
429-731 (58.7%)
5982 yards (8.2 YPA)
44 TDs and 20 INTs
21-5 record

So let’s see if you can pick out who is who. Post your answers in the comments below and I’ll post the answer key later tonight. Then you can compare this year’s class to previous years picks.

Good luck!

The Kansas City Chiefs are a HORRIBLE football team. They have some true talent on their roster, their defense is pretty good, but as a team they are far and away the worst group I have ever watched. They say that good teams find a way to win and bad teams find a way to lose. If that’s true then the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs are the badest of the bad, because they manage to find new ways to lose each and every week. Just when we think we’ve seen every possible way for them to embarrass themselves they go out and waste a solid defensive performance and an amazing 352 yard rushing performance led by Jamaal Charles who rushed for 226 yards. Brady Quinn was horrific and the coaching staff was a complete embarrassment.

That is why this loss will be a long term win. With New England just barely hanging on to beat Jacksonville, the Chiefs needed to lose in order to keep the number one overall draft pick. They did, and now the only way for KC to lose it would be to upset the 12-3 Denver Broncos, on the road, when they are playing for home field advantage in the playoffs. In other words, the Chiefs are almost a lock for the number overall pick and with it the franchise quarterback that they so desperately need. The pathetic performance by the coaching staff (a Peyton Hillis draw on 3rd and 8 inside your own 20, down a TD, late in the game, really?) further solidifies the eminent firing of head coach Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and hopefully the start of a whole new regime in KC.

Performances like the one against the Colts give this KC fan hope that a new GM that can find the right QB and right coach could get KC back in the playoff hunt sooner rather then later. With a solid rushing attack and overall defense the Chiefs simply need to get a passing game and a coaching staff to put the pieces all together.

Now finding a great coach and QB isn’t easy. There’s a reason that every team doesn’t have them. That is why getting the first overall pick is so crucial. The Chiefs MUST get the best QB available in the NFL draft. I don’t care where Mel Kiper or Todd McShay think that QB is “valued” the Chiefs MUST make sure the best QB in this draft is wearing a Chiefs uniform next season. I personally think that Geno Smith is the man for the job, but a lot can change during the lead up to the draft.

I’ve watched a lot of Geno Smith footage lately. The thing that was striking to me as I watched the KC game today was the difference in ball placement. Watching Geno he almost never makes throws like Quinn did on all three of his interceptions (yes, I know he officially only had two, but he should have had three, that PI call was bogus). When Smith misses, he misses in the right places, if that makes sense. Also, while Quinn can physically throw a ball deep, it’s just a heave in a general direction. There is no accuracy, touch, or timing. Smith has fantastic touch on his deep ball and it would add a whole new dimension to the KC offense. If you aren’t personally 100% sold on Smith yet, read this piece on why KC should take Smith, the author illustrates some great points and further sold me on Geno in KC.

I believe that with a good offensive coaching staff and some upgrades to the WR corps that Geno Smith could be a big success in KC. While on the topic of WRs, I liked what I saw from Devon Wylie at WR today. The first catch he made early in the game he made a great crisp cut and created separation from his DB. It’s something that we see done against KC every week, but rarely see our own WRs do. He also made a nice jumping catch later in the game. My dream scenario would be Dexter McCluster and Wylie lining up as the 3rd and 4th WRs in a Chip Kelly offense with Geno Smith as the QB and a re-signed D-Bowe and the Chiefs 2nd round draft pick (DeAndre Hopkins of Clemson?) at the starting spots. I’ve already done a piece on my Pro-Geno/Chip beliefs, that you can read HERE.

Last week I stated that the time for change in KC was running out. The idea being that if Clark Hunt is going to fire AND hire a new GM before we move on our coaching staff we had better get moving or all the top coaching candidates will be gone before our new GM even takes office. I still believe that 100% and would be thrilled if Pioli’s firing was announced today.

Former KC radio host Nick Wright tweeted last week that both Pioli and Crennel have already been told that they will not be coming back. Many national NFL reporters refuted this claim. However, despite Wright’s over the top personality he did prove to have some solid sources in the Chiefs organization. It wouldn’t surprise me if this was true and the Chiefs are of course denying it. I hope Wright is correct and that the decision has already been made and Clark Hunt is already lining up Pioli’s replacement as we speak. The rumor mill has Bill Polian as the leader in the clubhouse to land the GM spot. I personally have some real hesitations about that move, but it would still be a clear upgrade over Pioli.

Regardless, the Chiefs MUST find the right coaching staff to support their new franchise QB. Let’s hope that a week from today when the Chiefs season is officially over that these changes start happening right away. Hopefully a week from today the Chiefs will officially have the number one draft pick and Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel will be on their way out the door. Then today’s loss really will be a long term win for the Kansas City Chiefs.

As usual, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is the first time since joining the AA staff that I am writing a piece that I hope is completely irrelevant by the time most of you read it. I hope more than anything that shortly after this post hits the sight that news breaks that Scott Pioli has been fired and you can just stop reading this post right now. I hope that by mid-afternoon this post is pushed down the sight into obscurity.

Sadly, I don’t think that will be the case.

Most of Chiefs Nation seems confident that owner Clark Hunt will fire Scott Pioli. This season has been such a complete and total disaster that it almost seems impossible for there not to be wide spread changes in the organization. You add to that the fan unrest and protests by the SaveOurChiefs group and it would seem that Hunt will be forced to make a move, right? Maybe, I guess we’ll all find out in the coming hours, days, or weeks. The common thought seems to be that Pioli will be fired once this dumpster fire of a season is over.

Well here’s the problem. The time for making that move, at least effectively, is running out. If today comes and goes with no news of Scott Pioli’s firing it most likely means that he will keep his job for another week. If that is the case, then one of two things will happen. Either Scott Pioli will keep his job for another season or the Chiefs will be so behind schedule in getting their new regime in place that they will be playing catch up with the rest of the NFL and setting themselves up for failure.

Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the timeline of how things went down the last time Clark Hunt replaced his general manager.

Carl Peterson resigned (not that he had much choice) on Monday, December 15th. That was the Monday after the Chiefs week 15 game. In other words, today is the equivalent of that day. So if Scott Pioli isn’t fired today, the Chiefs will be operating behind the timeline that happened four years ago.

Clark Hunt hired Scott Pioli on Tuesday, January 13th. So it took Hunt just over four weeks to get his new GM hired. Perhaps he would move faster this time around, but I don’t think we should assume that. Some may suggest that he is possibly already talking to candidates behind the scenes, but in today’s age of news breaking tweets that seems awfully risky. I think that a four week turnaround from firing Pioli to hiring a new GM is probably a fair estimate. Putting that off another week would be very costly, in my opinion.

Scott Pioli then took 10 days to fire Herm Edwards on Friday, January 23rd. Hopefully a new GM would be sensible enough to fire Romeo Crennel immediately upon taking the job, but even then, if the new GM wasn’t hired until the second week of January, many of the top coaching candidates would already be off the market.

It then took Pioli two weeks to hire his new coach Todd Haley on February 6th. By that point, all the top assistants were off the market and Haley ended up with Clancy Pendergast as his defensive coordinator and holdover Chan Gailey staying on (although just temporarily) as his offensive coordinator because there simply wasn’t anyone else available.

UPDATE: Here is a list of recent coaching hires in the NFL by the date they were hired.

Mike Shanahan – January 6th
Jim Harbaugh – January 7th
Mike Mularky – January 10th
Ron Rivera – January 11th
Jeff Fisher – January 13th
John Fox – January 13th
Pat Shurmur – January 13th
Chan Gailey – January 19th
Joe Philbin – January 20th
Chuck Pagano – January 25th
Dennis Allen – January 25th
Greg Schiano – January 26th
Mike Munchak – February 7th

If you asked me to pick the five coaches on that list that I would most want to coach the Chiefs I would pick (in no particular order) Shanahan, Harbaugh, Fisher, Fox, and Pagano. Of those five, four of them were hired on January 13th (the date Hunt hired Pioli) or earlier. If you divide that list into two and look at the coaches hired after January 13th compared to the coaches hired before that date, I like the early list a lot better. That is why Clark Hunt can’t afford to wait any longer to start this process.

Now perhaps things will be different this time around. Perhaps Hunt will fire Pioli the day after the season ends and hire his new GM the very next day. Perhaps that GM will make firing Crennel his first act upon taking the job and will then be in on any and every good coaching candidate available. Perhaps, but I don’t know that we should be holding our breath on that one. I think if we want to have realistic hope of the kind of changes that most of us want to see that the ball needs to get rolling, and fast.

Hopefully that ball is already rolling. Hopefully you stopped reading this post after the first paragraph because Pioli’s firing has already been announced. Hopefully this post has already been pushed down the sight by rumors of Pioli’s firing, news of his official firing, a statement from Clark Hunt, and a post on the rumored replacements for Pioli. I’ve never hoped for my weekly post to be irrelevant before today, but boy I hope it is. Because if the game on Sunday taught me one thing, it’s that this team as it is currently constructed is an embarrassment. It’s a bad group of players that are poorly coached and give their fans very little to get excited about.

The thought of watching another two weeks of this without any hope of real change on the horizon is painful.

Hopefully those fears will be made irrelevant when Pioli is fired. If that’s the case, then most of you already stopped reading. If it’s not the case and Scott Pioli still has his job, then I’ve never been so bummed so say this…….

Thanks for reading (sigh) and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Kansas City Chiefs need to draft a quarterback.

I know, earth shattering news, right?

No one disputes this fact. Brady Quinn looked good for one week, but against the Browns he went right back to the same Brady Quinn that has failed to impress since he was drafted. The general consensus (and I agree with it), is that the Chiefs should use their first round draft pick on a QB regardless of whether or not there is a QB available that the “experts” feel is worthy of being picked in that slot. Kansas City has gone SO long without drafting a first round franchise QB (the last being Todd Blackledge in 1983), that it seems KC MUST finally break their 30 year drought and take a shot on a quarterback that can lead the Chiefs in an era where teams without a great QB have little to no chance of winning Super Bowls.

While that all sounds well and good, the Chiefs have picked a poor year to execute that plan. There isn’t a single QB in this class that is seen as a sure thing and only one (Geno Smith of West Virginia) is currently viewed as worthy of a top 10 pick. Now, that can all change through the lead up to the draft. We’ve seen QBs like Christian Ponder and Ryan Tannehill shoot up the boards from 2-3 round picks to early first round picks in the month or two leading up to the draft.

But what if that doesn’t happen this year?

What if Geno Smith is the only QB that anyone thinks is worthy of an early first round pick and another team ends up drafting him before the Chiefs? Wins by Cleveland, Carolina, and Philadelphia this weekend have made it a three team battle for the first overall pick between KC, Jacksonville, and Oakland. Should either Jacksonville or Oakland end up with the first overall pick they would probably take a strong look at Smith. There’s even the possibility that the Chiefs draft first overall, but really don’t like what they see in Smith. The only other QBs seen as first round prospects are Matt Barkley of USC and Tyler Wilson of Arkansas. Both of these two have had disappointing senior seasons and have a lot to prove going into the draft. Perhaps one will emerge as an early first round possibility for KC. Time will tell, but today I want to offer up a possible 2nd round QB prospect that I think could end up being the real deal if KC simply can’t identify a QB with their first round pick that they believe in.

That QB is NC State’s Mike Glennon.

Nov 10, 2012; Raleigh, NC, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback Mike Glennon (8) rolls out as he looks to pass against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

Glennon is a 5th year senior who is listed at 6-6 232 lbs. He has started the past two seasons after former Wolfpack starter Russel Wilson transferred to Wisconsin. Glennon has one of the better arms in the draft and while he is definitely a pocket passer, he moves well for a guy his size. The quarterback that Glennon is consistently compared to is Joe Flacco.

I have watched a lot of Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Mike Glennon this past month in anticipation of the Chiefs drafting a QB (Tyler Wilson is next on my list). The thought that I always end up with when trying to compare Glennon to Smith and Barkley is “What would things be like if these guys switched teams?”

I mean, let’s look at their offensive supporting casts. Here is a breakdown of each team’s run game and three primary receiving targets that these QBs have had to work with.

West Virginia:
431 rushes, 2131 yards, 4.9 YPA, and 21 TDs
Stedman Bailey – 106 receptions, 1501 yards, and 23 TDs
Tavon Austin – 110 receptions, 1259 yards, and 12 TDs
JD Woods – 56 receptions, 596 yards, and 4 TDs

USC:
370 rushes, 1860 yards, 5.0 YPA, and 12 TDs
Marqise Lee – 112 receptions, 1680 yards, and 14 TDs
Robert Woods – 73 receptions, 813 yards, and 11 TDs
Xavier Gamble – 27 receptions, 297 yards, and 5 TDs

NC State:
446 rushes, 1403 yards, 3.1 YPA, and 11 TDs
Quinton Payton – 48 receptions, 761 yards, and 2 TDs
Tobais Palmer – 46 receptions, 670 yards, and 6 TDs
Bryan Underwood – 43 receptions, 615 yards, and 10 TDs

You can see that Glennon simply doesn’t have the supporting cast of Smith and Barkley. Not only do they have more effective run games, but they are each throwing the ball to 2 NFL caliber WRs. Now, one can make the argument that Smith and Barkley are part of the reason their WRs look NFL caliber, but if you actually watch the games it isn’t hard to see that Glennon has no where near the talent to work with.

With that in mind, look at how these QBs’ numbers stack up.

Geno Smith:
350/490 (71.4%) for 4,004 yards (8.17 YPA) with 40 TDs and 6 INTs

Matt Barkley:
246/387 (63.6%) for 3,273 yards (8.46 YPA) with 36 TDs and 15 INTs

Mike Glennon:
295/511 (57.7%) for 3,648 yards (7.14 YPA) with 30 TDs and 14 INTs

With no context, Glennon appears to be a clear 3rd place out of these 3 QBs. Even with context, Geno Smith (based on numbers, which don’t mean everything) looks like the hands down winner. Better WRs would definitely of benefited Glennon, but they probably wouldn’t have raised his completion percentage by over 13%. Smith’s combination of arm strength and accuracy make him the top prospect in my opinion. However, what if he is off the board? Is Matt Barkley really any better than Mike Glennon?

With 2 NFL caliber WRs, including what many believe to be the best WR in college football (Marqise Lee) Barkley only completed 6% more of his passes. Not only do Barkley’s WRs do a better job of getting open and creating separation, the NC State WRs struggled with drops all season long. Go watch some of the youtube videos of Glennon’s games this season and you’ll see multiple passes that are right where they should be that his guys just dropped. Glennon plays in a NFL style offense similar to the one Barkley runs at USC and they both have experience taking snaps under center. Plus, Glennon has a much stronger arm so if he had Barkley’s elite WRs he should have been able to hit them on more deep plays. PLUS, Glennon threw one less INT despite throwing 124 more passes, showing that his decision making is solid as well.

After watching multiple games of each guy and putting their numbers in context, I can say that if you gave me a choice of which QB I would rather KC draft in the first round if Smith is off the board and my only two options are Barkley and Glennon, I would take Glennon. The fact that as of today, he would be available in the 2nd round makes for an intriguing “Plan B” should the Chiefs miss out on Geno Smith.

Now don’t get me wrong, Glennon isn’t perfect. Multiple scouts have stated that he needs work with his footwork and his accuracy isn’t near at Geno’s level, but in a year where the QB talent is supposed to be poor, if you could get a Joe Flacco in the 2nd round, you’d be doing okay. For what it’s worth, here are Glennon’s combined numbers for his two seasons starting for NC State compared to Flacco’s combined numbers for his two seasons starting for Delaware.

Glennon:
578-964 (60.0%) for 6,702 yards (7.0 YPA) with 61 TDs and 26 INTs

Flacco:
595-938 (63.4%) for 7,046 yards (7.5 YPA) with 41 TDs and 15 INTs

A lot can happen between now and the draft. Maybe the Chiefs will lock up the number one pick and decide Geno Smith is their guy. Maybe Tyler Wilson proves himself to be worthy of a top ten pick. Maybe Glennon wows everyone leading up to the draft and is this year’s Ryan Tannehill.

While we wait to see how that all plays out I encourage some of you that are interested to go to youtube and watch some of Glennon’s games. (Side note: there are numerous people that break down games and put together youtube clips of every snap a draft prospect was involved in during a particular game and condense it into one 5-15 minute video. It makes watching some of these prospects much easier to do.) When watching Glennon I came away impressed. Here are the links to the four games of Glennon’s that I have found so far:

37-44 Loss at Miami – Glennon: 24-42 for 440 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INTs

17-16 Win vs Florida State – Glennon: 30-55 for 259 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT

35-43 Loss at North Carolina – Glennon: 29-52 for 467 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs

48-62 Loss at Clemson – Glennon: 29-53 for 493 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT

If youtube isn’t your thing, then you can still check Glennon out in live action on December 31st in the Motor City Bowl against Vanderbilt.

I know we all want that franchise saving 1st overall draft pick QB to ride in on a white horse and “save our chiefs”, but if that dream doesn’t pan out, I offer you NC State’s Mike Glennon as a possible “Plan B” for the Chiefs QB in 2013.

Thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!

I wasn’t sure what to write about today. It’s hard to celebrate a win when such a dark cloud still hangs over the Kansas City Chiefs. I don’t know if more needs to be said about the tragedy itself. Like countless other Chiefs fans, my heart breaks for the families and loved ones of this tragedy. None more so than the innocent 3 month old whose life will be forever shaped by this senseless act of violence.

I also can’t imagine how difficult it will be for Scott Pioli, Romeo Crennel, and Gary Gibbs to continue to go to work day after day at the same place where they watched this horrific story come to its grisly conclusion. I have screamed from the rooftops that Pioli and Crennel should be fired for weeks, but now all I can do is pray that they are able to close their eyes at night without reliving the tragic events that they witnessed Saturday morning.

I’ve heard a lot of angry fans scolding Chiefs fans and players for mourning the loss of Jovan Belcher. The reasoning being that they should only mourn the innocent victims, not the man that caused this pain. To those people, all I can say is that the Chiefs coaches and players didn’t know a killer. By all accounts Belcher was a great teammate and friend. They are mourning the loss of that teammate and friend, not condoning the unforeseen violence that will now forever define him. It is possible to love a man and hate his actions. It is possible to be sickened by what he did and miss his companionship.

My advice to all at this time is to try to be understanding that people deal with tragedy and grieve loss in different ways. There is little to be gained by attacking one another for how we attempt to transcend this horrible situation. Sports websites, networks, and blogs are going to focus on Belcher, not because his life is the one that is most important, but because his involvement in this story is what makes it a sports story. Of course Kasandra Perkins is the true victim. Of course Belcher’s 3-month-old daughter Zoey is the one most in need of our prayers as she must now go forward in life without both of her parents. That doesn’t mean that Derrick Johnson can’t miss his teammate that he lined up beside for years. It also doesn’t mean that a person that was a big fan of Belcher can’t be sad that he is now gone.

It seems that the PC stance is that only Belcher’s actual family can mourn his loss and everyone else must hate him. I hate the fact that he murdered someone and took his own life. I hate the fact that his little girl must grow up without her parents because he chose violence instead of any other possible solution. I’m just not willing to judge others who are sad about the hole that Belcher’s loss has created in their life.

So is there anything positive that we can all come together over and focus on as we move forward?

Well, yesterday’s game was a start. Not that football is really important compared to these life altering events, but since this is a football blog and we are all fans of the Kansas City Chiefs football team it makes the most sense that we focus on that.

Let me start by saying that for the first time this season Romeo Crennel’s “grandpa-esque” demeanor and relationship with his players was an essential element of the team’s success. All season we’ve screamed at him to be more intense, get after players, etc. This time, that loving and calm demeanor allowed him to care for and lead his players through their darkest hour. I didn’t ever doubt that Crennel would emotionally be there for his team, that’s one of his strengths. What I didn’t see coming was that by caring for, loving on, and being the “emotional rock” at the center of the Chiefs family he would finally bring out something in this team that they had been lacking all season long.

True Mental Toughness.

All season long the Chiefs have been an absolute joke when it came to focus and execution. They hadn’t scored an opening drive TD since 1982 (or at least that’s what it felt like). So when faced with the most emotional, most distracting start to a game any of those players have ever played, what did they do? They drove right down the field and punched it in.

All season long the Chiefs have destroyed their chances at being competitive by carelessly turning the ball over again and again. So surely on a day when their hearts might not fully be in the game and that their minds might be distracted by what has transpired this trend would continue, right? Wrong, they didn’t turn the ball over once.

All season long the Chiefs have shot themselves in the foot by negating big plays with penalties. Often their focus was so poor that they would be penalized multiple times in the same game for the same stupid mistake. Sunday the Chiefs only committed one penalty all game long and that was at the very end as they were trying to run out the clock.

If I had been asked to give the Chiefs a grade for mental toughness through their first 11 games this season it would have been a big, fat, “F”.

If I had to give the Chiefs a grade for mental toughness for their game against the Panthers it would unquestionably be an “A+”.

That is simply shocking. The fact that a team that had been so unfocused, so unorganized, so “checked out” all season long, was able to fix every last one of those issues in the one game that they had a very legitimate reason to fall apart mentally is a statement to the character of those men. I just wish I knew why they couldn’t have done it sooner, but that is a discussion to be had after the wounds caused by this tragedy have had more time to heal.

For now we as Chiefs fans should simply give our support and deserved praise to the players and the coaches of the team we love. Especially to Romeo Crennel and Gary Gibbs who witnessed such horror, but then were able to lead their emotionally wounded team into a game and not just survive it but thrive in it.

I also think Brady Quinn deserves a special kudos above all the other individual players. He seemed to be a mirrored image of Coach Crennel out there on the field. Calmly leading his team, not ignoring the pain they were all feeling, but helping them stay on track and overcome it. If he hadn’t handled himself so well and hadn’t played his best game of the year (possibly his career) the Chiefs wouldn’t have had a chance.

Brady Quinn, simply put, was perfect on Sunday and he deserves a lot of credit for that. That doesn’t mean you have to change your feelings about his long-term future with the Chiefs — same with Crennel — but these men have earned every bit of praise and credit they are receiving today. Their futures in KC are a topic for another day.

Today I would just like to tell them and the entire Chiefs organization “thank you.” Their efforts yesterday made me proud to be a Chiefs fan. I pray that each and every person touched by this tragedy finds a way to grieve and come to grips with this ordeal in a way that is best for them. Yesterday was a first step, but the closer a person was to this tragedy the longer the road ahead of them is. May God bless their lives as they heal, especially the families of Kasandra Perkins and Jovan Belcher, and most of all little Zoey, who won’t even realize the impact Saturday had on her life until most of us have long forgotten the name Jovan Belcher.

Thanks for reading … now go hug someone you love.

The Kansas City Chiefs played a competitive game against the Denver Broncos, kind of. The final score was 17-9 and the Chiefs had the ball multiple times in the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead. That’s a competitive game. However, the absolute ineptitude of the coaching staff and the quarterback play make even close games like this one against Denver feel impossible to win.

The Chiefs can’t score. They have talented playmakers like Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe and they just can’t get in the endzone. The Chiefs are averaging a pathetic 14.6 points per game. Over the past seven games (all loses) they have only averaged 10.4 points per game and have failed to score more then one TD in any of those games. In fact, the Chiefs have only scored THREE offensive TDs in those seven games.

This scoring draught really goes all the way back to last season. In 2011 the Chiefs only averaged 13.3 points per game. That means that over the past 27 games the Chiefs have only averaged 13.8 points per game. It goes without saying that you just can’t win in the NFL if you can’t score points and the Chiefs can’t score points. By comparison, over those same 27 games the New England Patriots have averaged 34.1 points per game.

The biggest reason KC hasn’t been able to score has been the abysmal QB play. Anyone who has watched KC this season can see how bad the combined efforts of Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn have been. It’s not just this season though, the numbers put up by KC QBs since Scott Pioli took over are terrible. In four seasons the KC QBs have put up the following numbers:

57.6% completion percentage, 6.4 yards per attempts, 64 TDs, and 59 INTs.

That’s not mediocre QB play, it’s terrible QB play. In case you don’t believe me, look at how similar those numbers look to the career numbers of some of these recent “bust” QBs.

Mark Sanchez: 55.3%, 6.5 YPA, 56 TDs, 60 INTs
Matt Leinart: 57.5%, 6.5 YPA, 15 TDs, 20 INTs
Tim Couch: 59.8%, 6.5 YPA, 64 TDs, 67 INTs
David Carr: 59.7%, 6.4 YPA, 65 TDs, 71 INTs

I’ll spare you the agony of comparing those numbers to the NFL elite like Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc. How about just comparing it to the career numbers of some of the good QBs in the league that may not be Hall of Famers (yet), but give their teams what they need to win games.

Josh Freeman: 59.7%, 7.0 YPA, 72 TDs, 53 INTs
Joe Flacco: 60.7%, 7.1 YPA, 93 TDs, 53 INTs
Matt Ryan: 62.0%, 7.2 YPA, 115 TDs, 58 INTs
Matt Schaub: 64.4%, 7.8 YPA, 117 TDs, 67 INYs

As much as everyone would love a Hall of Fame QB, not every team will find one, but that last group I listed is what GMs should be striving for in order for their team to have a shot at the playoffs year in and year out and for the past four years the KC QBs have come up painfully short.

In addition to not being able to score the Chiefs are the kings of shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties. The Chiefs are averaging 2.9 turnovers per game. Their turnover differential is by far the worst in the league. If you just look at the total penalty numbers this season the Chiefs aren’t one of the worst teams, but it seems that the Chiefs are masters at getting penalties at the worst possible time. This is magnified when the Chiefs offense can’t score to begin with, let alone when they nullify a rare big play with a costly penalty.

Penalties and turnovers are the result of undisciplined play and even though each individual player is responsible for his own play, when a team as a whole plays undisciplined that falls on the coaching staff. I wish I could say that was the only problem with the coaching staff, however its far from it. The Chiefs are a HORRIBLE game planning and adjustment team, specifically on offense. The Chiefs never come out on their opening drive with a well designed drive that attacks the weaknesses of the opposing defense. The Chiefs never come out in the second half and adapt their gameplan to what the other team is giving them. Brian Daboll has been a complete failure as an offensive coordinator. Finally, there are the horrendous in game decisions. Romeo Crennel is literally so clueless at key points in the game that he has to burn a timeout in order to figure out what to do. He did it again against the Broncos and it cost the Chiefs dearly. The really frustrating part is that he often burns a timeout to think about things and then comes up with the wrong conclusion.

Why would you punt the ball down 5 points with 6 minutes to go in Denver territory against Peyton Manning when you are 1-9? The Chiefs literally had nothing to lose and Crennel chickened out. I get it, his QB is terrible, but at least send your team a message that you are trying to win. As Patrick stated in his postgame piece, Crennel is clearly the worst head coach in the NFL and that’s just based on his in-game coaching, don’t even get me started on his “I don’t know” responses in press conferences!

The Chiefs have showed at times this year that there is enough talent on this roster (especially on defense) to compete with anyone. However, as long as their quarterback and coaching remains the same they will NEVER be a good team. The reason that I am so strongly in the “FIRE PIOLI” camp is because the coach and quarterback are the two most important positions for a GM to fill and in four years Pioli has failed miserably at both spots. If Pioli believed that Romeo Crennel was the best coach for this team and he’s been this bad do you trust him to hire the next coach? Another possibility is that Pioli didn’t have Crennel as his top choice, but none of the better coaches available wanted to work with a control freak. Again, do you still want that guy in charge if/when Crennel’s replacement is being hired? How about Pioli’s track record with QBs in KC, since his arrival four years ago Pioli has subjected Chiefs fans to Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle, Tyler Palko, and Brady Quinn as the KC starting QB. If Pioli felt these players were good enough for KC to win games with do you trust him to evaluate which QB KC should draft and invest their future for the next decade in?

I don’t.

I believe that the Chiefs are one of the most talented horrible teams in the history of the NFL. The failure at the QB and coaching positions are so horrendous that Pioli has no business running this team for another day. I don’t care how much the rest of the team tries, works, etc. until they have a better QB and a better coach the Chiefs will lose most of their games.

It’s a hopeless feeling.

A feeling that KC fans all over are hoping that owner Clark Hunt will help remedy by firing his GM.

Even though my heart will be cheering for the Chiefs to beat other NFL bottom feeders like Carolina, Cleveland, and Oakland in the coming weeks. My head knows that more loses will probably increase the odds of Pioli getting fired and the Chiefs landing the coach and QB that they will need to compete in the NFL.

Then hopefully this hopelessness will end. Then hopefully we can get back to being one of the proud franchises in the NFL. Then hopefully we can get back to breaking down specific parts of the games and this team. That’s what these blogs are suppose to be about, right? I mean, how many ways can you say the GM, coach, and QB need to go before it starts to get tired?

Hopefully Clark Hunt will take action before we find out.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!

I was originally going to give my observations on the latest Kansas City Chiefs loss in this post. I just don’t have it in me. At this point none of the details seem to matter any more. Until the big picture gets addressed does it matter if Brady Quinn looked a little better than Matt Cassel? Does it matter if Branden Albert and Dwayne Bowe can play next week against Denver? Does it matter if Dontari Poe showed a couple flashes again? Does it matter that we got THREE running out of bounds related penalties on special teams in ONE GAME? Maybe it does, but I’m just exhausted from caring about those little things all week long only to get blown out by mediocre teams by 20+ points come game day.

Stop and think about it. In the last month we have been dominated at home by two of the most historically inept teams in the history of the NFL, the Raiders and the Bengals. These two teams have been national punch lines for decades and now they both look better run, more talented, and like they are more dedicated to winning. It doesn’t get much worse than that.

Oh wait….yes it does.

The stands are half empty, 50% of the people that were there were wearing black in protest of the current state of the team, people are wearing bags over their heads, there are rumors out there that fans were not allowed into the game with anti-Pioli signs, and someone actually listed the Chiefs as a cause of death in their obituary.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are blowing right on past teams like the Raiders, Browns, Bengals, and Lions and are headed to a whole new level of embarrassment.

Why?

Because the team has given us no reason to have any hope for the future.

Being terrible with a hope for the future is one thing. Being terrible and thinking that the owner doesn’t care and may not do anything about it is another.

That is why Clark Hunt can’t hide any longer.

He MUST give the people that support his team a reason to believe. Is it my hope that me comes out later today and says Scott Pioli has been fired? Yes, but as much as most fans would love that, he doesn’t actually have to fire anyone right now to help the situation. He just has to let the fans know that he’s upset and disappointed and that Chiefs fans can rest assured that he will make sure that the necessary changes are made so that this doesn’t happen again.

He should tell the fans that’s he’s embarrassed by what’s happened to his team. He should tell them that he’s going to look at every last part of the football operation from the front office, to the coaching staff, to the players and figure out who is part of the solution and who is part of the problem. He should reassure fans that his number one priority is getting this fixed and returning this team to the prestigious organization that his father created.

I know a lot of people would question how believable these statements would be without any actions to back them up, but at least he would be on the record as upset and dedicated to changing things. His silence, fair or not, is interpreted as acceptance and that is fueling the hopelessness and frustration that fans are feeling. Bud Adams, the owner of the Titans put his entire organization on notice after a 51-20 beat down to the Chicago Bears. His team responded with a 37-3 win on the road at Miami the next week. The Kansas City Chiefs have become WAY too used to losing. They need a fire lit under them. Romeo and Pioli lack the credibility to do it at this point since the players know that they may not be around much longer (hopefully). Clark Hunt is the only one that can do it.

His team is a joke, a laughing stock, the worst team in the NFL. It’s beyond the players just playing better. It’s beyond the coaches coming up with a better game plan. It’s beyond Scott Pioli finding better players. This team needs a new direction. Clark Hunt is the only one that can demand that.

We’re waiting Clark. We WANT to believe! We WANT to show up in the tens of thousands, draped in red from head to toe. We WANT to stay until the very last whistle, screaming our heads off the entire time. You just have to give us some hope, a reason to believe that you’re as passionate about getting this fixed as we are. We need some sign that this team means more to you then a bottom line. We need you Clark, we need you to speak up, and our patience is running out.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

Sep 30, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs mascot KC Wolf performs before the game against the San Diego Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium. San Diego won the game 37-20. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Game day is here KC Chiefs fans! Will the team show the same fight that they did in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football? Will the SaveOurChiefs movement fill the stands with black shirts? Will the Chiefs be able to slow down some of Cincinnati’s big guns like AJ Green and Geno Atkins? Will the injuries to KC’s offensive line make a struggling offense look even worse? We’ll find out the answers soon enough.

Here’s your open thread to cheer, vent, and comment on all the game action.

LET’S GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oct. 09, 2011; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Jake O

I would file this under “Whoop-a-dee-do” Chiefs news, but the Chiefs have put Jake O’Connell on IR, ending his season and elevated OL Rich Ranglin up to the 53 man roster. O’Connell’s loss isn’t significant, but the Chiefs are short handed at TE with Kevin Boss already on IR. However, Ranglin is needed on the active roster even more with Asamoah out and Lilja questionable. If Lilja can’t go then Ranglin and Bryan Mattison will be the only other offensive linemen available should any other offensive linemen go down.

So, I guess if you had Jake O’Connell on your fantasy team, you should drop him….and quit fantasy because you’re doing it wrong.

Nov 4, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) reacts after running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis (not pictured) scores during the second half against the Denver Broncos at Paul Brown Stadium. The Broncos defeated the Bengals 31-23. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-US PRESSWIRE

This Sunday the Cincinnati Bengals come to town. With my week filling in for Paddy coming to a close, I realized that with all the talk about banners, black outs, and possible draft prospects, I haven’t spent any time looking at the actual matchup this week, until now. Nathan Bramwell gave you a great look at the Bengals earlier, now here is a little more on how the Chiefs and Bengals matchup for this Sunday’s game.

When The Chiefs Have The Ball:

KC’s offense is ranked #18 in yards per game with 350.0.
Cincy’s defense is ranked #19 in yards allowed with 353.0.

KC is ranked #30 in scoring with 16.2 PPG.
Cincy’s D is ranked #25 in points allowed at 25.7 PPG.

KC’s run game is ranked #4 with 149 yards/game.
Cincy’s run D is ranked #20 with 118.3 yards/game.

KC’s passing game is ranked #26 with 201 yards/game.
Cincy’s pass defense is ranked #19 with 234.7 yards/game.

With these numbers alone, it doesn’t look like too bad of a matchup for KC’s offense. What it doesn’t show is that the Bengals best defender Geno Atkins could be poised to wreak havoc on KC’s offense. Atkins leads all defensive tackles in sacks with 7. Atkins is a beast and with Asamoah already out and Lilja banged up as well, it’s not a good time to face one of the best interior defensive lineman in the NFL right now. If the Chiefs can find a way to slow down Atkins, they could find some success against the rest of Cincy’s defense.

When The Bengals Have The Ball:

Cincy’s offense is ranked #20 with 346.6 YPG.
KC’s defense is ranked #11 with 336.6 YPG.

Cincy’s offense is ranked #12 with 24.4 PPG.
KC’s defense is ranked #28 with 28.4 PPG.

Cincy’s run game is ranked #25 with 93.7 YPG.
KC’s run defense is ranked #23 with 122.6 YPG.

Cincy’s pass attack is ranked #10 with 252.9 YPG.
KC’s pass defense is ranked #9 with 214.0 YPG.

I actually think KC’s run defense will be able to stop the Bengals rushing attack. The real test will be if the Chiefs can stop the Bengals passing game. AJ Green is a freak of nature. Flowers is the only defensive back on the roster with the game to hang with Green and he’ll be giving up 7 INCHES against him. If that wasn’t enough, they also have a very under the radar tight end in Jermaine Gresham. Gresham may not get the press that other top TEs do, but he’s just as good. Given the problems that KC has had against TEs, Gersham could cause problems. Stopping Green and Gersham will unquestionably be the key to stopping the Bengals.

Turnover Differential:

KC: -20
Cincy: -2

If Kansas City turns the ball over like they have most of the season they’ll lose. Period.

Key Players:

Andy Dalton – 64.4%, 2,329 yards, 7.39 YPA, 18 TDs, 11 INTs, 54.4 QBR
Matt Cassel – 58.6%, 1,703 yards, 6.53 YPA, 6 TDs, 12 INTs, 40.1 QBR

BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 537 yards rushing, 3.4 YPA, 3 TDs
Jamaal Charles – 734 yards rushing, 4.7 YPA, 3 TDs

AJ Green – 58 receptions, 820 yards, 14.1 YPR, 9 TDs
Dwayne Bowe – 49 receptions, 626 yards, 12.8 YPR, 3 TDs

Geno Atkins – 7 sacks
Michael Johnson – 6 sacks
Justin Houston – 7 sacks
Tamba Hali – 5 sacks

Terrance Newman – 2 INTs
Brandon Flowers – 2 INTs

Bottom Line:

The Chiefs must find a solution for three of Cincy’s key players: AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Geno Atkins. If KC can just contain them and keep them from doing massive damage all day long then KC has a shot to win. If those three players dominate the game then KC will have no chance. It also should go without saying that KC must not turn the ball over at the alarming rate that they have been most of the season.

November 10, 2012; Dallas, TX, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein (7) leads his team off the field before the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Kansas State won beating TCU 23-10. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-US PRESSWIRE

As a Kansas City Chiefs fan, watching football on Sundays has been a little stressful and depressing this season. I’ve found that I like watching college football a lot lately because I can just sit back and enjoy it. As an Emporia State graduate I don’t have a team that I follow so I can just sit back and watch the best game that’s on without a care in the world. It’s kind of like the calm before the storm that is the Chiefs game on Sunday.

Anyway, feel free to use this post as an open thread to talk college football. Have a favorite team? Want to weigh in on the possible National Championship match ups? How about the Heisman?

I’m going to try and watch some of Oregon’s game and see if I can envision the Chiefs running Chip Kelly’s offense.

If you’re watching anybody you think the Chiefs should think about drafting let us know. Anything to get our minds off 1-8, right?

Enjoy a nice day of college football Addicts!

Oct 28, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs center Ryan Lilja (65) on the sidelines against the Oakland Raiders in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Oakland won the game 26-16. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

As we reported yesterday, Jon Asamoah, Jon Baldwin, and Jake O’Connell have all been officially ruled out for Sunday’s game. However, news got a little more grim on Friday. The Chiefs released their official injury report (listed below). All the other players on the injury report were full participants in practice, except one, Ryan Lilja. Lilja wasn’t even a limited participant, he did not practice. That meant that the Chiefs had to move Russ Hochstein (who was expected to replace Asamoah) in to center, slide RT Eric Winston over to RG, and play rookie Donald Stephenson at RT.

This is not what we want the starting offensive line to look like on Sunday, for two reasons. First, Bengals DT Geno Atkins is a load for any interior offensive line. The Chiefs do not want to face him with a struggling Jeff Allen, signed off the street Russ Hochstein, and a lifelong tackle in Eric Winston as their interior OL. Second, because of Allen’s struggles the Chiefs relied on running behind the right side of their line against the Steelers. The right side has already taken a major blow in the loss of Asamoah, having to play Winston out of position and start Stephenson would just makes things that much worse. As game time approaches keep an eye out for reports if Lilja will play or not. If he doesn’t it could be a long day for the KC offensive line.

KC Injury Report:

Oct 7, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston (50) celebrates after sacking Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore won the game 9-6. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The week 11 roster update is in for Madden NFL 13.  The Chiefs close game against the Steelers has yielded mixed results.  Four players saw decreases, while seven saw increases.  I guess that’s progress when you have more increases than decreases, right?  Here are the results:

Nothing too earth shattering here.  Asamoah and Houston each got a couple of points added on for strong performances.  Other than that its just minor tweaks here and there.  Derrick Johnson only being a 94 is silly.  That guy has been playing as well as any ILB in the NFL all season.

The full update is below.

Oct 28, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs fans paid for a sign to fly around the game against the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday. That makes today “Red Friday” in the Chiefs Kingdom. It is a tradition for Chiefs fans in Kansas City and all around the country to proudly dawn their red attire in support of their favorite team. It carries over to game days as well as the Chiefs fans that fill Arrowhead Stadium have become known as the “Sea of Red”. However, the poor product being displayed on the field this season has some fans’ pride turning to outrage. On this “Red Friday” morning another SaveOurChiefs banner flew over KC, not over the stadium, but over KC’s rush hour traffic. This same SaveOurChiefs group is encouraging fans to wear all black to Sunday’s game to send a message to Clark Hunt.

By now, I think most people that care enough about the Chiefs to be reading this blog know about the SaveOurChiefs movement. They’ve flown “Fire Pioli” banners over the last couple of games and have tens of thousands of followers on Facebook and Twitter. It actually only takes one angry fan with enough funds to rent a plane to fly a banner. Clicking “like” or “follow” on your computer is one thing, but not enough to sway a multi-million dollar operation like a NFL franchise. An owner like Clark Hunt can live in denial that the banners flown around Arrowhead (and over traffic this morning) are just the product of a small vocal minority. That will change though if Hunt’s home stadium if filled with black shirts on Sunday.

Turning the “Sea of Red” into a “Sea of Black” would be an undeniable warning to KC’s owner that the frustration level is reaching its breaking point. I see the message of the “Blackout” game as this. We are still here to cheer on the team because we love the Chiefs, but things have to change or the next step is we stop coming.

I think most people would agree that Clark Hunt is definitely an owner that enjoys making profits. If Hunt looks out into the crowd Sunday that is there to watch his 1-8 football team and sees a full house that is 90% decked out in red with only a speckling of black mixed in the message will be that there is no real pressure to change. Fans are still coming, supporting the team and lining his pockets. However, if Hunt looks out and sees a stadium with more Black than Red that could be a game changer. Hunt strikes me as the kind that can live with angry rants about his team on sports talk radio and blogs like this one as long as the business is thriving. However, if that anger reaches a point that he starts losing out on a significant revenue stream, then he may be prompted to take action.

In a way, the SaveOurChiefs movement has gone “all in” on this Sunday’s game. If the “Blackout” works, the movement is to be taken seriously. It may show up in the national sports media. It will shed a bright light on the problems in the Chiefs organization and send the message that fans will not stand for the “status quo” again next season. It will light a real fire under Clark for change. If the “Blackout” is a dud, it will take a sledge hammer to the SaveOurChiefs movement’s credibility. They will just be “those guys that fly the banners”, an annoyance to the administration, but not a threat to their precious bottom line.

I always look forward to watching the Chiefs play on Sunday afternoons, even this season. What can I say, I’m an Addict. This Sunday I’ll be anxious to turn on the game not because I can’t wait to see what the final score will be, but to see what message the fans send to Clark Hunt. I think it could go a long way to determining what the course of this offseason will be.

So Addicts, are you hoping for a “Sea of Black” on Sunday? Do you see that as a positive demand for change or is it crossing the line? If you’re going to the game will you be dawning black or the traditional red? For better or worse, the fans will send a loud and clear message on Sunday. I just don’t know what that message will be.

Sep 3, 2011; Arlington, TX, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Chip Kelly on the sidelines against the LSU Tigers at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

As we sit with seven games still remaining in this NFL season, most Kansas City Chiefs fans have given up all hope of the Chiefs as we currently know them becoming a winner. Most fans are in agreement that the Chiefs are in dire need of replacing three of the biggest positions in a NFL franchise: The GM, the coach, and the QB. I’m in 100% agreement with replacing all three of those and have been since I sat in the upper deck and watched the Raiders whoop up on KC on their own home field (although you wouldn’t know it by all the Raiders fans there) despite the Chiefs having an extra week to prepare.

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what I’d like to see the Chiefs do. Bill Cowher is probably the most popular choice for coach, but I don’t know how likely that is. Plus, keep in mind how long it took for Cowher to win with the Steelers. The only thing I know for sure is that after watching Romeo just stand there with a Herm Edwards-esqe blank look on his face while his team is getting destroyed, is that I want the next KC coach to have some fire and energy. This is a a young and impressionable team and the need someone to get them fired up and pointed in the right direction.

As far as the QBs go, I was like everyone else in that I was worried that no QB this year would be worthy of a 1st or 2nd overall pick. I’d looked into Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, and Tyler Wilson and found some series concerns with all three.

So I thought that I was going to have to wait and see until I declared my allegiance to any one possible coach or QB for the Chiefs to pursue. That was before I read two different articles on Oregon coach Chip Kelley that have completely changed my thinking.

If you are a fan of football strategy, football x’s and o’s, or just really interested in possible head coaching candidates you MUST read these two articles. I found them utterly fascinating. SERIOUSLY, stop reading my post right now and go read these two articles. DO IT!!! REALLY, I MEAN IT. READ THEM!!!!!

Tim Livingston’s How Oregon Coach Chip Kelley Can Spark ‘Moneyball’ Revolution In NFL from Yahoo’s ThePostGame

Chris Brown’s The New Old School from Grantland

I don’t know how you could read those two articles and not come away impressed with Kelly. What really gets me is that these two different writers basically broke down why Kelly is good enough to not only excel but revolutionize the NFL, but they both had different reasons as to why he can do it.

If you’re one of the incredibly unfortunate readers that didn’t click on the links above and actually read the articles (It’s not too late, go back and do it, it’s worth it, really……….seriously, I’m not going to keep going until you go back and read them………okay, fine!) then here are a couple highlights to sell you on this guy.

From the Yahoo piece that focuses on Kelly’s aggressive approach and playing the odds instead of playing it safe:

Whenever Kelly does enter the league, he’ll play the game aggressively, with “aggressively” meaning in a mathematically logical fashion. By the end of the season every coach will be going for it on fourth down, attempting fake punts, fake field goals, two-point conversions, and they’ll likely do all of this oblivious to the fact that there’s astounding mathematical evidence supporting the decisions they’re making. They’ll just see Chip Kelly’s team lighting up the scoreboard and follow suit because … well, 90 percent of NFL coaches are followers.

I read this article about a week ago and I was intrigued. I liked the idea of the Chiefs being aggressive. Todd Haley used this same philosophy and I always loved it. He got ripped in the press a few times when it didn’t work, but I like the idea of the Chiefs being the team trying something new and aggressive instead of hiring a retread coach that will follow the same NFL blueprint that most other coaches use.

That having been said, I still was skeptic of Kelly. After all, a lot of good college coaches have flopped in the NFL. Most college offensive systems don’t translate to the NFL and I was worried that Kelly would be another one of these. Plus, it seems like the college coaches that make it in the NFL like Tom Coughlin, Pete Carroll, and Jim Harbaugh all had NFL ties before their current coaching position. Kelly has no NFL experience of any kind. Then I read the second article at Grantland about the x’s and o’s of Kelly’s system and how and why it works. It makes sense to me. Here a couple snippets:

Chip Kelly’s offense works not because it’s a gimmick, but because rather than choose sides between old and new, Kelly’s teams straddle history. Oregon is successful because it does well what good teams have always done well, albeit with a slightly more modern wardrobe.

This change of pace is actually how Oregon constantly keeps defenses off balance. If they only went one pace the entire game the offense would actually be easier to defend. When the defense lines up quickly and is set, Kelly takes his time and picks the perfect play. When the defense is desperate to substitute or identify Oregon’s formation, the Ducks sprint to the line and rip off two, three, or four plays in a row — and it rarely takes more than that for them to score.

a Chip Kelly–coached NFL team would win for the same reasons that the Chip Kelly–coached college team wins. Behind the speed, the spread, the Daft Punk helmets, and the flashy uniforms, Oregon ultimately wins with old-fashioned, fundamental, run-it-up-the-gut football. I think everyone, even fans of the spread offense, can appreciate that.

The basic idea is that Kelly attacks wherever the defense gives him numbers. He spreads the field out, not to run a Mike Leach at Texas Tech or June Jones at Hawaii spread passing attack, but a balanced or even run heavy attack. Kelly spreads the field out and makes the defense choose what they are going to do. If they spread out too, then he attacks the middle of the field with the run game. If they crowd the box to stop the run then he takes his chances with his WRs all being in single man to man coverage. It’s a different approach then the spread passing attack that just spreads the field out for the sole purpose of giving a QB sitting back in the shotgun multiple receiving targets.

Here’s why I like this idea so much for KC. Think about the RBs that have thrived in this system at Oregon like LaMichael James and now Kenjon Barner. These guys are home run hitters. Guys that when the defenses spread out can hit an open gap up the gut and be off to the races in a heartbeat. Of all the top RBs in the NFL right now, who do you think best fits that mold? If you were picking the perfect NFL back to use in this system I think you can make a strong choice that Jamaal Charles is tailor made for this system. That’s why I’m 100% on the Kelly bandwagon now. I think the Chiefs have three offensive weapons on the roster right now that would thrive in Kelly’s system: Charles, Dexter McCluster, and Tony Moeaki. Think about McCluster as a slot WR in Kelly’s system that is designed to create space for players to make plays, perfect fit. Kelly loves creating mismatches, so having a TE that can stay in and block for the running attack, or exploit single coverage and become a target downfield is perfect as well. The Chiefs would have to either resign Bowe or bring in another big play WR in order to exploit single coverage if the defense was keying in on the run.

Then there’s the small matter of the quarterback, but we’ll get to that in a second.

The last thing I want to highlight from the Grantland piece that I think would lead to Kelly’s success in the NFL is his approach to practice. The old-school ranks of NFL coaches have had the bulk of their practice taken away by the new collective bargaining agreement. Some have had a hard time adapting. College coaches on the other hand are used to having limitations on the amount of time with their team. Check out this section on Kelly and his practices.

Operating under the constraint of NCAA-imposed practice time limits, Kelly’s sessions are designed around one thing: maximizing time. Kelly’s solution is simple: The practice field is for repetitions. Traditional “coaching” — correcting mistakes, showing a player how to step one way or another, or lecturing on this or that football topic — is better served in the film room. The up-tempo, no-huddle offense ends up benefiting in practice as much as it does in games. Without time wasted huddling, players get many more practice repetitions, leading to increased efficiency on Saturdays. As Sam Snead once said, “practice is putting brains in your muscles,” and Oregon’s up-tempo practices are all about making Kelly’s system second nature.

This sounds like exactly what the Chiefs need to jump start their pathetic offense. That, and a good quarterback to run this system.

Enter Geno Smith:

Sep 1, 2012; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) reacts after a touchdown in the first quarter against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-US PRESSWIRE

As impressive as Geno Smith looked early in the season, I was quick to jump off the Geno bandwagon after his numbers began sliding as he faced more formidable defenses. His completion percentage and his yards per attempt have dropped drastically over the past month. I also haven’t liked his sideline demeanor in some of their loses. I want my QB to always be rallying the troops and at times Smith has looked liked he has accepted defeat. That’s the last thing a team like the Chiefs needs when they are trying to break out of their losing ways.

I’m not doing much to sell the guy yet, am I?

Here’s the thing. Before supplanting myself firmly on the Chip Kelly bandwagon, I was leaning towards either Matt Barkley or Tyler Wilson as my first choice for the Chiefs to draft. However, after reading about Kelly’s system, I don’t think there is any question about which of the first round QBs would be best suited to run it.

Check out this quote segment of the Grantland article about Kelly’s system and his use of the QB:

But despite all his success, there are those who still like to label his offense a gimmick, or, more practically, wonder if it’s possible to run a spread offense in the NFL, given the beating a quarterback might endure. This misunderstands Kelly’s attack. “I look for a quarterback who can run and not a running back who can throw. I want a quarterback who can beat you with his arm,” Kelly explained at a coaches clinic in the spring of 2011, emphatically adding, “We are not a Tim Tebow type of quarterback team. I am not going to run my quarterback 20 times on power runs.”

So Kelly wants an athletic quarterback who can run if he has to, but that is mainly going to beat you with his arm. If you look at the scouting reports of the three first round options at QB I think you will find that all of them describe Smith as having the best mobility and athleticism and the strongest arm. I don’t think Barkley or Wilson have the mobility to run Kelly’s offense. Smith is not a running QB, but Kelly doesn’t ask his QBs to run very often. Oregon’s QB Marcus Mariota has 78 rushes this season compared to 251 pass attempts. If you compare that to K-State’s Collin Klein who has 154 rushes compared to 208 attempts you see the difference in what he asks his QB to do. FYI, Geno Smith has 53 rushes this season compared to 400 pass attempts.

In addition to the athleticism, I think Geno’s deep ball is the other reason he is the right guy for Kelly’s system. If the Chiefs were running Kelly’s no huddle and wanted to make sure defenses weren’t crowding the line to stop Jamaal Charles, having a QB who can stretch the field is a major plus. Wilson also throws a solid deep ball, but Matt Barkley is widely considered to only have an average arm.

Finally, despite some reservations that I have about Smith’s on field demeanor when his team is down, his work ethic and football knowledge is suppose to be first rate. I don’t think he would have a problem putting in the work to learn Kelly’s system.

For what it’s worth, the rest of my blueprint for next season would include hiring Marty Schottenheimer to a consultant/VP of football operations type of position, and then hiring a no name GM that nobody has ever heard of but other GMs all around the league respect as a talent evaluator. Marty will be the guy that talks to the media and is the “figure head” for the front office while our new no name, no ego GM just sits in an office and scouts players and works out contracts. We’d keep the key members of the defensive coaching staff in place (Gary Gibbs, Anthony Pleasant, and Emmett Thomas). I think the current defense with a Chip Kelley offense would be fantastic. We should resign Bowe, Albert, and Colquitt to long term deals. Let Dorsey go and restructure Tyson Jackson so that he’s paid like a rotational player and not a first round draft pick. Then upgrade wherever else we can through free agency and the rest of the draft.

In the words of Romeo Crennel: I mean…BOOM.

That’s how I’d get it done. (Maybe I should be the new GM?)

I don’t know how the rest of this season will play out for the Chiefs. I don’t know where they will be drafting or if/when they will fire Scott Pioli and/or Romeo Crennel. What I do now know is that this Armchair Addict will be hoping that when next season rolls around Chip Kelly will be our new head coach and Geno Smith will be our starting QB.

Who’s with me?

Oct 9, 2011; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (82) celebrates his touchdown catch in the end zone against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Kansas City defeated Indianapolis 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

I’ll be honest with you, my fellow Chiefs fans: I was racking my brain trying to come up with a third positive post to do this evening. I decided that after days of complaining about what is wrong with this team I wanted to keep it positive today. I started with a post about the talent still on this roster, followed with a post about how good the videos put out by 65 TPT Productions are, and now I can finish the day off with some good news regarding Dwayne Bowe.

Adam Teicher of the Kansas City Star has a must-read article up this evening for anyone who is concerned about the Chiefs resigning their top receiver. Last month Yahoo’s Jason Cole was asked by a Miami radio station if he thought the Dolphins might try to trade for Bowe before the trade deadline. He said (I’m paraphrasing) that it was possible. This was misreported by some that Cole was saying that the Dolphins and the Chiefs were trying to negotiate a deal. He later took to Twitter to clarify that he didn’t know anything about them working on a deal, just that it would make sense if they were. He then Tweeted this:

I can report this: Bowe wants out of KC very badly. Not exactly a revelation, but true.

I’ll be completely honest; I’ve been operating under the assumption that Bowe is as good as gone after this season. Here’s my reasoning. The Chiefs couldn’t come to a long term deal this last offseason and its hard to imagine that either side is going to move significantly after this season is over. Given Bowe’s tendency for drops, showboating, and occasional knuckleheadedness it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs tagging him a second time and paying him well over $10 million for a single season (although they will need to spend up to the spending floor next year, so that might not be an issue). I also believe that if Bowe hits free agency that someone will offer him a silly amount of money that KC won’t match (see: Carr, Brandon). Finally, my thinking has been that Bowe would want no part of staying in KC. Why should he take less money to stay with a run first team with no quarterback that’s in a small market and doesn’t like his attention seeking “Bowe Show” ways? I’ve always seen him taking big money in a big market if he had the chance. The fact that the Chiefs are also TERRIBLE this season doesn’t help matters either.

That was a very long way of saying that I didn’t think Bowe would resign with KC.

That all having been said, Teicher’s article today caught me by surprise. Even when I saw the headline I was expecting the typical “I love KC, I’d like to work something out, we’ll see what happens after the season” line that most soon to be free agents spout out (probably at their agent’s urging). Everyone should go to the Star’s website and read it for yourself. Bowe doesn’t just claim he wants to stay, he emphatically denies the reports that he wants to leave. Check out some of these quotes.

“I never said I didn’t want to be here. I never said that. This is where it started for me. This is where people know me from. That’s crazy to me.”

“When I heard that, I was like, ‘Where did that come from?’ I never said I wanted out. Please clear that up for me.”

“I play the game to win. That’s what I do week in and week out. I feel we can do that here, of course. Things happen, and it won’t be easy, but I try to show (that spirit) and it will become contagious. You’ll see it. It’s coming.”

That’s not your garden variety PC/PR prewritten by an agent quote. What’s more, Bowe is usually a guy with no filter. He just says what he’s feeling or thinks and it has gotten him in trouble before. That’s why this report surprised me. I have a hard time believing that Bowe suddenly became a PR wizard and dropped these denials to win over public opinion. I believe the guy, and this is coming from someone that woke up this morning thinking that there was a 0% chance that Bowe would stay in KC.

Now, this doesn’t mean that Bowe and the Chiefs will work something out. Bowe may still want a big, fat, Vincent Jackson-esqe, multi-year deal that the Chiefs just may not think he is worth. I still can’t see Bowe giving KC a big hometown discount if his agent thinks he can hit the lottery on the open market. However, I’m encouraged that Bowe seems to want to stay assuming the Chiefs will pay him. That at least ups the odds of him returning some.

For now, that’s about the best you can ask for.

It’s pretty easy to write blog posts about what’s wrong with the Kansas City Chiefs these days. Once upon a time, I tried to focus 100% of my writing about the team on the positive. My thought was that there were plenty of people focusing on the problems so why not shed some light on the good too. For the past month I’ve abandoned that practice and rightfully so. The Chiefs have been so bad that they haven’t deserved anything good to be said about them. That still may be the case, but frankly it’s starting to become too depressing to follow this team. So I’ve gone out of my way today to try and be a little more upbeat. Earlier today I had a post about the talent I still see on the roster, but that’s about all the positive I could come up with for the product on the field. So now I’m going to focus on the one thing I think the current Chiefs administration has done right off the field: the videos put out by 65 Toss Power Trap Productions.

For new KC fans, 65 Toss Power Trap is the famous play that coach Hank Stram called up in the Chiefs lone Super Bowl win. The iconic NFL Films clip of Stram calling the play and celebrating after it worked is one of the great historical clips in the history of the NFL. So it’s a fitting name for the video production team for the Kansas City Chiefs not just because of the history with the Chiefs Super Bowl win, but the history of that NFL Films clip itself.

The current administration has at times dropped the ball with fan relations. When you have a poor product on the field and the General Manager and owner are no where to be found things are going to turn ugly. The added stigma of the “hush hush” Patriot Way and the drama of Kent Babb’s “Arrowhead Anxiety” piece only fuel those flames. Since the only person that talks to the media on a regular basis is the coach and the “Patriot Way” decrees that the coach isn’t allowed to give out any useful information, fans aren’t left with anything but their own feelings of frustration and anger when things are bad, and right now things are REALLY bad.

The one thing coming out of One Arrowhead Drive that the Chiefs can hang their hat on are the quality videos put out by 65 Toss Power Trap Productions, specifically the “Chiefs Kingdom” series. If you haven’t seen any of these episodes I encourage you to watch them. Since they are centered on featuring Chiefs fans, they can be a source of pride in what it means to be a Chiefs fan even when the product on the field isn’t something we are taking much pride in.

The upcoming episode this weekend is on the legendary group of Chiefs fans/ambassadors the Red Coaters. Last week they featured a KC fan that has opened up a KC style BBQ joint (and Chiefs hangout) in the Pacific Northwest. They have also featured KC fans that survived the Joplin tornado, the amazingly talented Chiefs artist Chris Sembower (I have one of his pictures as my screen saver), and Chiefs fans/actors/comedians Rob Riggle and Paul Rudd, just to name a few of my personal favorites.

Do these videos show off the Chiefs organization in a good light? Of course they do; they’re produced by the team. However, these videos aren’t just “Rah Rah” pro-Chiefs propaganda. They show the heart and soul of KC Chiefs fans and right now the great fans are about all that KC has going for it.

So if the Chiefs have you feeling down and you aren’t having much fun following this team I encourage you to take some time and watch an episode or two of “Chiefs Kingdom.” It’s about the only quality product coming out of Arrowhead these days.

November 1, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (7) during the second half against the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers won 31-13. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

At 1-8 there is no debating the fact that the Chiefs are a bad football team. In fact, they passed bad about a month ago and plowed right on into the embarrassing zone. That having been said, I still believe there is a pool of talent on this roster that a winning team could be built from. My opinion is that the two things holding this team back are bad QB play and bad coaching. Are there other areas of the roster that need to be upgraded? Sure, but you can say that about several playoff teams.

Now I’ve been called a “Homer” and “Kool Aid Drinker” on more than one occasion. I believed in Scott Pioli. I even believed that this team was good enough to overcome the mediocre QB play of Matt Cassel. So I don’t trust my own judgement anymore. So I want your help. You can be my own personal “Recovering Homer” support group.

Am I wrong to still believe in the core talent of this team?

I look at other “bad” teams like the Jaguars and Browns and think, “we have so much more talent than they do.” Is that true? Or am I too biased because of my love of this team?

I look at guys like Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Branden Albert, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers, and Eric Berry and think that we have as many big-time talented players as most playoff teams. Am I wrong about that?

Would you trade rosters with any of the other teams that are already out of the playoffs?

Is it wishful thinking that I think we’re a new coaching staff and a first round QB away from being right back in the mix?

Again, I’m not saying the rest of the roster is set. Yes, upgrades can be made, but they seem more like minor tweaks than a major overhaul. I want Pioli fired as much as anyone. I think the fact that he’s completely failed at finding a head coach and a quarterback when those are the two most vital spots to fill make his firing completely justified. His draft record in KC is uninspiring, but the QB and HC are the dagger to the heart. He should go, ASAP. However, I feel like some people are afraid to say anything about the team being talented out of fear that it will somehow sound pro-Pioli.

So, do I need a bucket of cold water thrown in my face to snap me out of my latest blind homer loyalty?

Or was that game against the Steelers proof that when the team is motivated and the QB doesn’t turn the ball over the team is talented enough to hang with anyone?

October 28, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs fans during the first half of the game against the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders won 26-16. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Chiefs fans all over are frustrated. We were led to believe that this season was going to be the year the Chiefs took that next step. Instead they are in a battle with the Jacksonville Jaguars to see who can be the worst team in the NFL. That leads to a lot of unrest in the fanbase. The genius behind the amazing videos of Red Tribe Cinema has never been a huge Matt Cassel fan. Now he is throwing his support behind the SaveOurChiefs.com movement and the “Blackout” for this Sunday’s game. Check out his latest video.

WARNING: Only watch this video if you can laugh at how bad this situation has gotten. Otherwise, you may break down and cry.

In my opinion this is an instant classic. Although I would personally still put it second all-time in Chiefs “lowlight” videos behind this one:

Aug 16, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers tight end DeMarco Cosby (46) during the game against the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field. The Browns defeated the Packers 35-10. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

When the Chiefs put Glenn Dorsey on IR and moved Neiko Thorpe up to take his place last week, it created an opening on their practice squad. That spot has now been filled by TE DeMarco Cosby. Here is the bio that the Chiefs PR put out on him:

Cosby (6-3, 245) originally entered the NFL as an undrafted rookie free agent with the St. Louis Rams in 2011 where he spent time on the club’s practice squad roster. He signed with the Green Bay Packers on July 30, 2012 but was released before the start of the regular season. Cosby played collegiately at the University of Central Missouri, starting 14 games as a senior, hauling in 71 passes for 970 yards (13.7 avg.) and 10 TDs, all of which set single-season tight end records for the Mules. He finished his career as Central Missouri’s all-time leader among tight ends in receptions (141), receiving yards (2,146) and receiving TDs (20). Cosby prepped at Lincoln Prep High School in Kansas City, Mo.

So he’s a local guy. Any readers out there from the Lincoln Prep or Central Missouri area that know anything about this guy?

July 27, 2012; St. Joseph, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterbacks (left to right) Brady Quinn (9), and Ricky Stanzi (12), and Matt Cassel (7), and Alex Tanney (4) run drills during training camp at Missouri Western State University. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

The Kansas City Chiefs may very well have the worst collection of QBs in the NFL.

Let me be clear, they stink. BAD!!!

So when I ask you who you would like to see start at QB this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, it’s about the same as asking you whether you’d like to be punched in the face, stomach, or somewhere south of the border. There is no great answer (although I’ve always felt like stomach would be the way to go).

My point is that since there is no good answer, which option will you find the least pathetic as the Chiefs slog their way through the remaining seven games of the season?

Here are your choices:

Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel is a horrible starting NFL QB. At one point in his career he looked like he could be a mediocre starting QB, but those days are long gone. He stinks on ice. REALLY, REALLY BAD!!!!!!!!!!!! (Yes, he’s caps lock and multiple exclamation marks bad.) However, the depressing thing is that he is probably the best QB on this roster. If your desire is for the Chiefs to be as competitive as possible and try to win as many games as possible, Cassel is probably your best bet. He is on a record pace for turnovers though and the fans are SO opposed to him playing that it probably hurts overall team morale when he’s on the field. With the SaveOurChiefs.com movement planning their “blackout” game this Sunday, I’m not sure starting Cassel coming off a game-losing interception will go over very well.

Brady Quinn

Brady Quinn has also shown himself to be a BAD starting NFL QB. At this point he has less proven “suckitude” than Cassel, but the fact remains that in training camp Quinn clearly looked worse than Cassel. He seems to have a better arm than Cassel, but he’s also proven to be a bit of a turnover machine as well. If Quinn could just not turn the ball over he would immediately be an upgrade, especially with his stronger arm. I don’t think anyone thinks there is a long-term future for Quinn in KC, so like Cassel, he would just be a placeholder until the Chiefs could find someone new next year.

Ricky Stanzi

Stanzi seems to be the most popular choice at this point. The common rationale being that he’s young and there could still be some upside there. He’s also the only QB on the roster with a strong chance to make the team again next season. Here’s the problem. On a team with HORRIBLE QBs, Ricky Stanzi was by far the worst looking in camp and preseason. When given a chance to run with the “twos” in the preseason he was AWFUL. How awful, you ask? He was so bad that Matt Cassel thought to himself ,”Man, that guy really panics under pressure!” Brady Quinn thought to himself, “Man, that guy’s so bad he would lose a QB battle to Derek Anderson!” So yes, giving Stanzi a chance would at least let us see if he has anything to offer, but it could also turn Chiefs games into an even bigger joke than they already are (and that’s saying something).

So who do you want out there this Sunday?

If it was my call, and he is healthy, I would go with Quinn. It allows us to move on from Matt Cassel, which is good because of his constant turnovers and the angry mob waiting for him at Arrowhead should he play and turn the ball over again. It also gives the Chiefs a better chance to be competitive down the stretch than if they went with Ricky Stanzi. That’s my take, now what’s yours?