Draft Science 2017: Quarterbacks and the offensive line
By Ryan Tracy
As the 2017 draft approaches, the Kansas City Chiefs have few pressing needs. Finding players that fit the mold athletically will be a large factor on draft weekend.
Over the last four years, John Dorsey and Andy Reid have put together a staff of coaches, scouts and personnel executives that know what they’re looking for. As we examine players the Kansas City Chiefs have selected in the past, the trend becomes very clear with regards to players’ athleticism and how it applies specifically to the Chiefs’ schemes.
While anomalies pop up from year to year, the vast majority of Chiefs players’ have athletic profiles that are consistent. This year in ‘Draft Science’, we’re going to look at what those profiles are and where value exists in this draft to get players that fit. To do this, I am using the new 2017 Athletic Matrix NFL Draft Guide from Rogue Analytics.
The Quarterbacks
We’ve spent a lot of time on the draft quarterbacks due to the amount of time and effort the team has put into researching and meeting with the QB prospects of this draft class. We’ve discussed scheme fit, talent, and even coachability within the Reid system. Now we can look at athleticism to see which players most closely resemble Andy Reid’s quarterback archetype.
Courtesy RogueAPC.com
Since coming to Kansas City, Reid has been very steadfast in his support of Alex Smith and what he can do. He’s praised his intelligence and his athleticism to escape the pocket, extend plays and gain yards with his legs. As we look at quarterback athleticism, several players have aspects of their athleticism that mimic Alex Smith’s. However, one player in the class stands out.
Is Andy Reid and John Dorsey are truly looking for a quarterback in the image of their current quarterback, then Josh Dobbs would fit the bill most evenly. Dobbs has been rising up draft boards late in the run-up to the draft. Hear more about Dobbs in today’s Locked on Chiefs podcast.
If Kansas City wants to go with a player different from Smith in arm strength, in particular, there are still athletic options. Both Patrick Mahomes and Mitch Trubisky bring more arm power while having similar escapability to that of Alex Smith.
QB Production
When looking at production, three categories are critical when projecting to the West Coast offense. If the Chiefs are looking to replace Alex Smith, we need to see how the draft QBs stack up.
One aspect of Alex Smith’s game that has been criticized over the years is the number of check down passes he throws for short yardage gains. When comparing Smith’s college career to this draft classes’ we see that Smith threw the lowest number of passes for every touchdown pass. He threw 8.28 passes in order to complete each touchdown pass in his college career. The top four, only Kizer and Watson approach Smith’s completions per touchdown pass.
courtesy RogueAPC.com
Smith also completed passes for a larger average completion yardage, at 13.38, then the majority of this draft class. That was, of course, depending on his college offense and the defenses he faced. In this class, only Deshone Kizer has thrown at a better pace.
Andy Reid likes the fact that Alex Smith can gain yardage with his legs. Reid has adapted his offerings to include the pistol formation and read-option plays in order to capitalize on Smith’s athleticism advantage. If they are looking to bring in a quarterback with similar running upside they have options. Both DeShaun Watson and DeSean Kizer ran at a rate in college that rivals Alex Smith. Josh Dobbs produced an even better rate. What makes Dobbs’ accomplishments more impressive is that he was successful in running against SEC defenses. Their level of competition surpasses what Smith saw at Utah.
While this draft class may not be as prepared for the NFL as classes in the past, it offers a great variety of skill sets. One of the determining factors for John Dorsey, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs could end up being the athleticism of a new quarterback.
The Offensive line
John Dorsey and Andy Reid have been successful in bringing in offensive linemen who’ve been able to make an impact for the Chiefs. In 2016, five of the top six starters had been drafted by the Dorsey/Reid regime.
Let’s examine drafted starters left tackle Eric Fisher, right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, and center Mitch Morse. All of them saw significant early playing time and have significant athleticism. They are the three core linemen that demonstrate the athletic capabilities needed to run the zone-blocking system that the Chiefs utilize on nearly 60% of their running game.
There is one draft prospect that fits the athletic profile of the top three offensive linemen in Kansas City. His name is Forrest Lamp and he played at Western Kentucky.
Courtsey RogueAPC.com
Lamp possesses the power and the short area quickness that fits the mold of Duvernay-Tardif, Morse, and Fisher. He has the overall athleticism to join this offensive line and man the left guard position. His availability at pick number 27 is a question. Rumors have Lamp as not only the top guard but a top overall lineman in this draft class. If he is available, John Dorsey may have to think long and hard about selecting him.
Unfortunately, not all the Chiefs linemen have similar athletic abilities. The team saw both of the least athletic of the top-six play the entire season at left guard. Both Zach Fulton and Parker Ehinger were drafted for their on-field traits but are lacking the same level of athleticism in power production and explosion.
Fortunately, If Kansas City feels the need to add a guard later in the draft, there will be options. They will not have the overall athleticism of a Lamp. However, there are a number of players who fit between the athleticism of Morse/LDT and that of Fulton/Ehinger.
In the end, Players such as Nico Siragusa, Isaac Asiata, Dion Dawkins, Danny Isidora and even Dan Feeney offer athleticism upgrades over Fulton/Ehinger. Even Jake Eldrenkamp has short area quickness that would allow him to play in the Chiefs offense, although his strength/power production would need to improve.
While their film would have to be above-average in awareness, punch, and finishing;,this group of players offers athleticism that can help Kansas City in 2017 and beyond.
I’ll be back next week with more Draft Science. If you’d like to get a copy of the Athletic Matrix NFL Draft Guide, you can head over to Rogueapc.com