Steelers vs. Chiefs: Matchup analysis

Welcome to the Divisional round, where the Kansas City Chiefs seek their first AFC Championship Game since 1993.

It’s almost here. Perhaps the biggest game the Chiefs have played in a long time. The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Arrowhead. The Steelers are coming off a handily-won game against the Miami Dolphins, 30-12. The big three Ben, Bell, and Brown were all available for the playoffs for the first time since Bell joined the team in 2013, and took care of business.

Now the Chiefs come in fresh off a bye week with all 53 players available for practice and be active for the game. The last time these two teams faced the Steelers walloped the Chiefs 43-14. By the end of the first quarter the Chiefs had lost a fumble, an interception, and a 23-yard punt that set the Steelers up on the Chiefs 40-yard line. By all accounts it was the worst first half of football the Chiefs had played all season. Now it’s time for redemption.

Tyreek Hill vs. Pittsburgh Defense

In their Week 4 matchup Hill was on the field for just 18 of 75 (24 percent) possible snaps. In those 18 snaps Hill touched the ball six times for 22 total yards and a touchdown. For a comparison, in Week 17 Hill was on the field for 38-of-61 (62 percent) possible snaps. From Week 9 on Hill hovered around playing 50 percent of possible snaps. So it’s fair to say Hill will likely have a larger impact this game compared to their previous matchup.

So lets breakdown what Hill will be up against.

Hill is seen from all over the formation from the outside, inside, and HB positions. With Hill playing mostly inside, expect a lot of attention from the Steelers inside cornerback William Gay and inside linebacker Ryan Shazier. The Steelers rank No. 1 against inside receivers allowing an average of just 6.6 receptions for 36.9 yards per game, per Football Outsiders.

Hill averaged just 9.7 yards per reception mostly due to many of his receptions coming from behind or just past the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately for Hill, the Steelers also rank ninth in the NFL in defending short passes (defined as anything less than 15 yards through the air). Hill will have a tough time getting open and making plays against this tough short yardage defense.

Spencer Ware vs. Steelers Front 7

Spencer Ware had his highest yards per attempt against the Steelers in Week 4 (6.31). Interestingly the Steelers rank 22nd in average yards per attempt allowed to running backs (4.39). However, they rank 14th in adjusted line yards by FO. At the same time they rank 9th in stuffing the run at a rate of 22 percent, but are 24th (67 percent) in power success rate.

Power Success is defined by Football Outsiders as, “Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.”

This shows that the Steelers are great at stuffing the run except in crucial situations. For the Chiefs this means that they should look to establish the run early and often. Running the football will take time off the clock and leave the Steelers big three on the bench. Ware could certainly be in for a big game.