Free agency every offseason is a chapter of intrigue, want, excitement and frustration. Arm chair general managers across the country take aim at the player or players they believe will take their beloved team to the promise land. The draft, an event as ridiculous as any, has become a beacon of hope for fans coming out of the cold of the winter, a spring of hope for fans.
For Kansas City Chiefs fans this year, that rings as true as it ever has, both in free agency and the draft. However, one name headlines the Chiefs offseason more then any other; Eric Berry.
The biggest question that has to be answered, and this is a question that general manager John Dorsey and the rest of the Chiefs front office has to wrestle with, is what exactly is Berry worth. It’s a complicated question, and within the question lies the truth of just what Berry is as a player.
As was previously written in this column, Berry and his representatives will likely be asking for a contract in the neighborhood of five years at $9.5 million per ($47.5 million total) with roughly $25 million in guarantees. Keep that in mind for the rest of the discussion here… $9.5 million per season.
We will first compare Berry’s on field performance against other safeties in his draft class first, the 2010 class.
Next: Best comparisons...
Eric Berry career stats
70 games 350 total tackles (5/game) 10 interceptions 41 pass defensed
Pro football reference career AV Number 27
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Kam Chancellor career stats
88 games 472 tackles (5.36/game) 10 interceptions 34 pass defensed
Pro Football Reference Career AV Number 34
Chancellor is playing on a four-year/$28 million deal. 7.8 is guaranteed.
If you take the cap increase of 15 percent since this contract was signed it’s present day value is roughly 4/32.2/8.97.
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Earl Thomas stats (currently the highest paid safety in football)
96 games 506 tackles (5.27/game) 21 interceptions 46 pass defensed
Pro football reference score of 53
Thomas, in 2014, signed a 4 years, 40 million dollar contract. In today’s money, that’s just over 11 million a season
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TJ Ward stats
81 games 477 tackles (5.88 /game) 7 interceptions 33 pass defensed
Pro football reference score of 30
TJ Ward signed a 4 year/ 22.5 million/14 guaranteed in FA class of 2014. Today’s value 4/25.87/16.1
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Devin McCourty stats – Should be noted, played corner for two seasons
91 games 452 tackles (4.96 /game) 18 interceptions (9 as a safety) 63 pass defensed (33 as S)
Pro football reference score 34
McCourty’s contract last year 5 years /47.5 million/ 28.5 guaranteed
second highest paid safety by average annual number (behind Earl Thomas)
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Reshad Jones stats-
88 games 504 tackles (5.72 /game) 15 interceptions 33 pass defensed
Pro Football reference score of 22
In August of 2014, Jones signed a 4 year / 28 million / 15 guaranteed.
Jones, who’s an injury replacement in the Pro Bowl this year (seriously, who isn’t a part of the pro bowl); is likely to be released or a restructured contract due to the Dolphins salary cap woes.
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The player who’s performance best mirrors that of Eric Berry
William Moore stats
76 games 365 tackles (4.8 /game) 16 interceptions 32 pass defensed
Pro football reference score of 26
William Moore’s contract with the Atlanta Falcons, when he was 27 years old (same age as Berry will be this offseason) signed in March of 2013, signed a five-year, $32 million deal with $14 million guaranteed. The cap has gone up roughly 27 percent since that point, since that point, so, present day value of that contract is five-year, $40.6 million contract with $17.78 million guaranteed.
Raise your hand if you think this contract gets it done with Eric Berry. Anyone? No one?
Next: What will happen...
Salary and value website Spotrac.com released an Eric Berry calculated valuation of his upcoming free agency.
In short, Spotrac calculated Berry’s value, on a five-year contract, to be worth a grand total of $41,239,673. Breaks down to $8,247,935 a season. Quick show of hands, who thinks Eric Berry, prior to free agency, will agree to that contract? Anyone? Nope, didn’t think so.
Also, this is why the Chiefs, despite the discussion, are unlikely to use the franchise tag on Eric Berry. For reference, Joel Corry has estimate the safety franchise tag to be north of $10 million. That would remove all negotiating leverage from the Chiefs, and would likely turn Berry into the highest paid safety in the league.
While the Chiefs may have a decent number of cap dollars to spend, they don’t have the money to soak up a $10 million cap number just this season, without a contract for the next season, when the Chiefs are unlikely to have a bunch of cap room. (Per spotrac and overthecap.com, the Kansas City Chiefs are eighth in the NFL in terms of 2017 salary commitments).
As we can see, Berry is a quality football player and an even better human being. Those are facts and not up for debate. What’s also quite evident, he’s on the verge of being paid significantly more then what he’s worth. History has proven out that teams rarely win Super Bowls by paying players far more then their actual true value (that point is especially true for players who play non premium positions, such as safety).
We all certainly hope Berry returns, and is a Chief for life. However, if a team out there is willing to pay him big money, we need to thank Berry for his time here, and move forward and in a different direction. Either way, it’s a tough spot for Dorsey in what is such a pivotal off season for the organization. Lets see what plays out.