Justin Houston contract: What will it take?

The Justin Houston watch is officially upon us. With only two weeks left before the July 15 deadline for the Kansas City Chiefs to sign their All-Pro outside linebacker to a long-term deal, panic is beginning to set in a bit. With that feeling comes speculation from both the fans and media on what it will take to lock Houston up.

General manager John Dorsey has a task ahead of him, with Houston coming off one of the best years in NFL history for a defensive player. Houston racked up 22 sacks, setting a new single-season franchise record while coming withing a half-sack of the NFL mark. With projections of what the new deal could be ranging all over the spectrum, we find an interesting, thoughtful piece by Joel Corry of CBS Sports.

You may remember Corry for doing an interview with Arrowhead Addict a month ago, and he talked about the Houston situation. Here is what he had to say back on May 27:

"“He can’t walk after this year because they can always tag him again, which would be $15.834 million. But if you are going to do that you might as well pay him because then you have $30 million over two years in base structure. He wanted the deal last year and skipped camp. … Kansas City should have tried to get him to get a Tamba Hali contract last year, but that ship has sailed.If you think you’re going to marginally make the high him the highest paid outside linebacker in the game, that’s not going to cut it. … Kansas City dropped the ball not anticipating the Ndamukong Suh deal coming in above J.J Watt, because when that happened, if I’m the agent, whatever we were taking about is obsolete. Now the Suh deal sets the marketplace. Since he almost broke the single-season sack record, he has transcended the position. … Kansas City probably needs to stretch this a little more than they would like to. The moral is the longer you wait with a Pro Bowl or superstar player, the more it will cost in the long run.”"

In other words, the Chiefs should probably call in a few BRINKS trucks to help make the payment to Houston.

Corry is a former NFL agent and for my money, one of the smartest cap analysts of all-time. He understands the ins and outs, making his opinion more valuable than perhaps any other.

In totality, Corry breaks down the situation for both the Chiefs and Houston, and believes the right contract for both sides would be somewhere near five years for $81.25 million, with $48 million guaranteed. The deal would include a $20 million signing bonus and cap hits of $5M in 2016, followed by $19M, $20M, $18.25M and $19M.

Corry wrote about why he came to this deal, although you should seriously do yourself a favor and read the entire thing. It’s flat-out brilliance.

"Houston’s contract guarantees and average year salary are a happy medium of the three suggested valuation methods (average of five highest-paid non-quarterbacks, average of five-highest paid defensive players and average of three highest-paid pass rushers) while remaining consistent with Kansas City’s contract preferences and structural conventions. The most relevant contracts signed by the team in recent years are the five-year deals signed by Hali, Dwayne Bowe and Jeremy Maclin, which average over $10 million per year."

Personally, I would be thrilled with this contract. Anything less than $100 million in total and $50 million in guarantees is a win for Kansas City after the J.J. Watt and Ndamukong Suh deals, at least to my untrained eyes.

What do you say, Addicts? Would this be a deal you would sign off on?