Chiefs Should Focus On Re-Signing Houston, Not Smith

Use your ← → (arrows) to browse

SmokeSignals

With OTA’s underway and the preseason still a couple of months off, all we can do as fans right now is hope no one gets injured and speculate on the various leaks and statements coming out about ongoing contract negotiations.

The focus has largely been about the future of QB Alex Smith, whose contract ends at the end of this playing season. Depending on who you ask, those talks are either going well or miserably and there do seem to be wildly different valuations of Smith floating around in the media.

Before we get deeper into that, I want you to look at the following numbers. These are the aggregate stats for three QB’s over the past three seasons. I took away the names so you can judge them more objectively.

QB 1

Completion percentage: 59.9%

TD-INT ratio: 51-33

Rushing TD’s: 1

Rushing yards: 406

QB 2

Comp. percentage: 64.0%

TD-INT ratio: 53-17

Rushing TD’s: 3

Rushing yards: 742

QB 3

Comp. percentage: 65.2%

TD-INT ratio: 90-49

Rushing TD’s: 2

Rushing yards: 133

Rather than try to guess which these guys are, just rank them based on which you think are the better QB’s according to these stats. My guess is that you ranked them QB3 first, then QB2, then QB1.

Of course, raw regular season stats don’t tell you how much this player was able to help the team at the end of the day. At the same time, QB’s can’t take total credit for wins and losses. Still, lets look at those numbers now.

QB 1

W-L: 22-14

Playoff appearances: 0

Playoff wins: n/a

QB 2

W-L – 30-9

Playoff appearances: 3

Playoff wins: 1

QB 3

W-L: 24-23

Playoff appearances: 0

Playoff wins: n/a

Now, if you’re like me, you probably had QB2 ranked as the second best out of this group, but the win-loss record and the playoff performances may bump him up to the top. It’s a matter of preference, really.

Either way, to cut to the chase, find out on the next page who these three QB’s are.

Use your ← → (arrows) to browse
Next Chiefs Game View full schedule »
Sunday, Sep 77 Sep12:00Tennessee TitansBuy Tickets
Dick's Sporting Goods presents "Hell Week":

Tags: Alex Smith Cap Contract Justin Houston

  • Deaudrey Dre-Mac MacDonald

    Yes, this is the most rational thought out there especially if they trade B Flowers or cut him…

  • Stacy D. Smith

    I want Houston re-signed, but quarterback is the more important position. We have Dee Ford on the chance that Houston can’t be retained. We have no one ready to play quarterback in Smith’s stead. I believe Murray will eventually be the guy, but he’s still trying to rehab from the ACL injury and forcing him onto the field in year two squanders the window of opportunity with a core group of veteran players. How can you convince other players whose contracts are set to expire to stick through yet another rebuild?

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      That’s why you franchise Smith and put off the decision for another year.

      • Stacy D. Smith

        Franchising him doles out a BUNCH of cash and gives you zero security. If he plays well in 2014 and 2015, he’ll want even more money. Chances are, there will probably be another 1-2 new contracts that will set the market even higher for a quarterback of his caliber. Smith ain’t getting cheaper. If they don’t wanna pay him, they should just let him walk after 2014.

        • NicholasAlanClayton

          I’m not saying its the best solution, obviously it would be better to extend both of them to reasonable contracts. But if I have to chose between extending Houston or Smith right now, I go with Houston and live to fight another day.

          • Stacy D. Smith

            Fair enough.

      • berttheclock

        Please read my comment above about franchising QBs .. Phil Emery said it best when he refused to put a franchise tag on Cutler. It costs you far too much money and does not allow you to prorate the the guaranteed money. QBs are the worst to place any franchise tag on due to the fact the one year tag really affects your cap adversely.

        • NicholasAlanClayton

          Well, we don’t know what sort of deal will be possible between the team and Smith. We also don’t know what the franchise tag number will be next year. But, if Smith can only be signed for a Romo-like or Cutler-like contract, then the franchise tag is still cheaper. The 2014 QB tag is smaller than the cap hit from either Romo’s or Cutler’s contract this year. Check the links in the article. Good QB’s are going to be expensive no matter how you retain their services.

          • berttheclock

            If the Chiefs would apply the franchise tag on Alex Smith for 2015 and before the April deadline, they would have to average the top five QBs for 2014 and that average would be $20,410,000. The wiki article has a lower figure for 2014, but, 2015 will be larger.

          • NicholasAlanClayton

            We don’t know what that average is going to come to next year, but you’re right to expect it to rise. Still, I doubt it will rise that much, that’s like a 25% increase. Unless a couple of the top five guys nearly double their compensation, I think that kind of jump is unlikely.

          • John Moore

            The new CBA has new rules on how to calculate the franchise tag compensation. It is hard to put into one sentence, but it is the average percentage of the total salary cap eaten up by the top 5 contracts for the past 5 years. The reason the owners pushed for this was because a bunch of owners front-loaded contracts in 2010 to take advantage of the uncapped year. This would have inflated the franchise tag too much, so they decided to do a five year average.

            Basically it works like this: In 2013, Eli Manning made $20,850,000. The 2013 salary cap was $123,000,000. Eli’s contract consumed 16.951% of the salary cap that year. That is 1 data point out of 25 that will be averaged. Because it is the average of the salary cap, I’m not sure how to calculate 2010, given that it was uncapped. But if you average the percentage for the 20 data points we know, you get an average of 13.843%. Next year’s cap is expected to be $143,000,000 to $145,000,000. That would put the franchise tag at between $19,795,490 and $20,072,350. Again, I’m not sure how to calculate for 2010 because it was uncapped, and those extra 5 data points might bring the salary cap down, but $20,000,000 is the number we should expect the franchise tag to cost next year.

    • Nick the Kick

      If you can find one example of a team letting the top rated or even top 5 rated guy at DE/OLB go after his rookie contract, then we can talk about Smith being more important to the Chiefs than Houston. Even with 2 DUI, 3 felony gun charges, possession of a controlled substance, and an airport bomb threat the 49ers picked up Aldon Smith’s option. I really admire and respect the work and analysis you do for us to consume, but on this issue I think you are dead wrong.

      • Stacy D. Smith

        When did I advocate letting Houston walk?

        • Nick the Kick

          In your above comment you say that Smith is more important and that we have Ford if Houston can’t be resigned. My point is that the only way we lose Houston is if a deliberate decision is made to pay Smith so much we can’t keep both. I’m all for keeping both, unless Alex won’t budge from $18-20 million cap number. The only way we lose Houston is by overpaying Smith. If we gotta pony up franchise tag money for a guy, my vote is Justin Houston.

          • Stacy D. Smith

            When did I advocate paying Smith $18-20m per? More importantly, where’s that number coming from?

            My only point is that signing Smith should be the team’s top priority. There are three quarterbacks behind him who have logged exactly one professional start.

          • Nick the Kick

            That $18-20 million # comes from both the $126 million reported and the Romo and Cutler contract. I think we agree in principle, Smith is here this year unless he sits out @ 7.5 million, so it’s disingenuous to say we have only our current backups as options for 2015. There is the draft, free agents, trades, or the growth of one of the backups. All it really comes down to for me is if he takes ballpark $14 million per year extend him now, if not sign Houston to whatever he is asking and put Smith on pause. He is not worth wrecking our cap over.

          • PhataLerror

            “All it really comes down to for me is if he takes ballpark $14 million per year extend him now, if not sign Houston to whatever he is asking and put Smith on pause. He is not worth wrecking our cap over.”

            This is when I know there is a point being argued without a bias being publicly expressed. Has there never been a high-profile contract offered by a franchise to retain a defensive lineman that was made to look very good by virtue of the scheme he played in, as well as his situation and his quality fellow defenders, and only after the signing did the team realize that they had just ‘wrecked their cap’?

            What is it about Justin Houston that is so amazing to you that he should get “whatever he is asking”, but you wouldn’t approve of giving Alex Smith top-ten quarterback money? If we’re assuming that the player being signed is going to perform as expected after he signs, why is it “wrecking our cap” in the case of Smith, but it wouldn’t be the same in the case of Houston? A dollar of cap money spent on a quarterback is just as spent as a dollar of cap money spent on a defensive lineman.

            It’s time for you to put up an argument in behalf of Justin Houston that recommends him for “whatever he is asking” money, and stop with these backhanded compliments about Alex Smith being needed [but not being close to worth top-ten quarterback money].

          • phantomebb

            I think you don’t realize how QB contracts work. Smith wouldn’t take up 18-20 million per year. Lets look at Jay Cutlers contract as an example. He signed a 7 year 126 million dollar deal with 38 mil guaranteed which is front loaded. the 2014 cap hit was suppose to be 18.5 mil before he turned 5 mil into a signing bonus opening 4 mil up for cap space. In 2015 his cap hit will be 16.5 mil. After 2014 Jay Cutler could be cut and it would only affect the cap another 6 mil from 2016-2018.

            So even though it seems like Cutler signed a 7 year 126 million dollar deal he really signed a 2 year 35 million dollar deal with an option every year thereafter.

            They can make cap space for both Smith and Houston. Flowers/Hali/Bowe all might have to go if they don’t want to restructure but it wouldn’t be a significant loss if we lost all of them. Flowers seems to be a cover 2 corner only (well see this year), Hali is getting older and is a liability against the run ( Dee Ford can replace him), Andy reid has gotten production from no name receivers in the past and Bowe isn’t close to 12+ mil a year production.

          • Scott Mahurin

            Let me add a couple footnotes to your supposition:
            “Andy Reid has gotten production from no name receivers” *¹ *²

            *¹ When his QBs were named Favre, McNabb, Vick, and Foles.
            *² Alex Smith ain’t one of the above. His top receiver was a running back. JC, 693 yards. His “no name” receivers would be Avery, McCluster, Jenkins, and Hemingway who combined for 1161 yards. Bowe, his “big name/$56M guy” had 673 yard receiving. VERY mediocre numbers.

          • Kisersosay

            Andy Reid is good at game planning to get the ball into the hands of his best playmaker. Everyone knows JC is going to get a lot of touches and they still can’t stop him. Getting the ball to other receivers when you have a JC is somewhat over rated as a stat to compare against other QB’s.

          • Suzi Conger

            Reid et al learned much when ASmith put up an incredible 44 PTS vs colts WITHOUT JCharles!! The Offensive success is more reliant on AS11 than jcharles.

          • phantomebb

            I would say Smith is absolutely better than Vick and foles. Farve is the all time int leader for a reason but at this point probably still better but Smith is at least close to McNabb. Someone did a whole article on andy reid reciever production and thier conclusion was 800 yards from the top receiver is pretty average for Reid. The biggest injury last year besides commings was Travis Kelce. Hes suppose to be a gronk clone and under Reid Tight ends normaly have triple the receptions that they did this year. Fasano was a huge disappointment and you cant expect much from McGrath. You also have to remember how bad the o line was in the beginning if the year. But still Bowe and avery were very dissapionting, Jenkins taking the #2 will help.

          • Steve Jones

            Its funny that you mention Vick, who’s not in the same category as Smith.. Vick’s best season under Reid was in 2011 and his throwing yds and td-int ratio were both worse than Smith’s were last season. Why’d you list Foles? He only played 6 games for Reid his rookie season and his WRs were DJax, Maclin, and Cooper.

            As for Smith’s “mediocore #s”. It was his 1st year w/ Reid and took him half a season to get acclimated to the playbook. Since the bye week he completed 62% of his passes, averaged 250 yds/gm, had 18/3 td to int ratio and averaged 7.4 yds/pass. I’d expect his stats to be along this line next year.

          • Nick the Kick

            I understand exactly how the contracts work, just using the same # to keep it simple. Explain to me how $35 million over 2 years is less than $18 million per unless you are talking dead money after he is cut? Also I think Smith is good but to compare him favorably to Brett Favre under any scenario is laughable.

          • phantomebb

            You said 18-20 if you look at the contract its 16-18.5 till year 6 when its 20+. And you can always find ways against the cap. And yes Brett Farve is better obviously but its not laughable when Farve blew 2 championships and a superbowl with bone headed plays

      • PhataLerror

        “If you can find one example of a team letting the top rated or even top 5 rated guy at DE/OLB go after his rookie contract, then we can talk about Smith being more important to the Chiefs than Houston.”

        Mario Williams. The Texans let him go after 2011. And you know what? With Matt Schaub, the Texans made the playoffs in 2012, and were one of the hottest AFC teams going into 2013 before Schaub’s unprecedented collapse beginning in week 3 (and an argument can be made that Schaub wasn’t the only thing wrong with the team). Meanwhile, the Bills have collected fewer wins than the Texans during those two years, have no playoff appearances, and don’t appear to be trending upward. Oh, and the Texans just grabbed Jadeveon Clowney, who with development could end up being an elite defensive end just like Mario Williams.

        Alex Smith is much better than Matt Schaub, and again, I would argue that Matt Schaub is no slouch. You can build a defense around a guy like Justin Houston if you can cost-effectively lock him up for a year, but your entire offense always runs through the quarterback.

        If Houston walks, you probably get a third round compensatory pick in 2016. Or you could trade him this year and get even more for him. Or you could franchise tag him in 2015, and he’ll be much easier on the cap than the quarterback would be that year.

        As for the 49ers keeping Aldon Smith, all I’ve got to say is “above reproach”.

        • Nick the Kick

          So the best argument you have is Houston did the right thing by keeping Shaub over Mario Williams? You Mark that up as a Texans win? On the flip side, let’s say they kept Mario instead, somehow ended up with the no. 1 and got Bortles or Manzel instead. Way too many hypotheticals to know for sure. I would have kept the young elite pass rusher over the middle aged in NFL years qb. I really do like Smith and want to keep him, but in a zero sum argument I think Houston wins out clearly.

          • PhataLerror

            “So the best argument you have is Houston did the right thing by keeping Shaub over Mario Williams?”

            Don’t misrepresent me as arguing that I think Schaub makes a bigger impact on a team than Mario Williams. I would evaluate such things on a case-by-case basis. I was responding to your challenge that teams don’t let go of elite defensive ends, and I responded with a very high-profile example that was only a couple of years old. In hindsight, the Texans were a playoff team without Mario Williams, and I don’t think that the Chiefs would cease being a playoff team for lack of any one defensive player, even Justin Houston. (I blame Bob Sutton for much of the 2013 Chiefs’ defense’s late-season woes.)

            Again, if both players can be kept, great. I think both Smith and Houston add tremendous value to the Chiefs. But if I had to keep just one of them, the Chiefs have on the one hand what I have long considered a top-ten quarterback, and behind him one of the more competent backups and a prospect. On the other hand, they have a top-ten pass rusher, and behind him competent backups including a very strong prospect. If you have an excellent quarterback, the points their offense will put on the board can put league average backups in a situation where they can accumulate tackles and sacks. The team-wide effect of an excellent defensive end doesn’t have the same consistent, global effect upon the team. And I’m not sure I would admit age difference as a significant determiner of valuation between Smith and Houston, as there’s less than five years’ age difference between the two.

            There’s a huge argument to be made for retaining Alex Smith that doesn’t need to resort to irrelevant arguments such as draft picks already spent or relativistic arguments such as whether he does more for the team than an elite pass rusher. His play on a situational level is almost unmatched in the league, and he has a history of succeeding with substandard offensive complements that are well coached. He makes his teams so much better than the sum of their parts. The Chiefs need Houston, but their need for Smith is far greater.

          • Suzi Conger

            well said

  • unclejesse40

    Oh how I dislike you Jay Cutler!

    • berttheclock

      Hey, a few years back Chris Collingsworth said the Niners had made a mistake in taking Alex Smith and not Jay Cutler. However, in a game he slept through, er, gave color commentary, Alex Smith had a tremendous game and CC had to admit he had never seen Smith play so well.

      • berttheclock

        Of course, I have often wondered what CC ever learned about the game of football except running down the field yelling “I’m open”.

  • berttheclock

    Hey, Laddie, when you read this will you please keep in mind to not write a Saturday thread about Alex Smith?

  • berttheclock

    Several posters have suggested not extending the contract for Alex Smith, but, using the franchise tag on him next year. When, Cutler signed his long term contract, he was 30 and many suggested a franchise tag might be the way for Emery to work out the deal. Emery countered with the argument of the down sides of tagging a QB. He said the QB market is so high, that the average of the top 5 QBs would overload the tag and the worst problem with that is he would not be able to rotate the quaranteed money over a longer period of time and it would really hit the cap. Franchise tags end up costing a team far too much money for that season.

  • niner559

    An interesting take. Seattle and SF seem to extend their franchise D players first and are willing to replace the others through the draft. The question is, who are the franchise D players on the Chiefs. You can really only sign 2-3 to large contracts. As Murray may have been drafted to replace Alex, Dee Ford could replace Houston. I would argue, that replacing an outside linebacker is easier than replacing a QB. By the way, I had QB 2 first. QB 3 had to many INT’s and not enough rushing yards for my taste. I like a QB that able to extend plays with his feet. I like a QB that can put his team is position to score without making the bonehead INT. But that’s just me.

    • Blaize Richardson

      I disagree. There’s not many 3-4 OLB’s in the NFL like Justin Houston. He’s clearly a huge difference maker on the field and not someone you can just replace like nothing. Alex Smith is awesome, but Andy Reid has had success with a variety of different QBs from all sorts of different circumstances and is someone that could develop a successful QB given enough time if Alex decides not to re-sign.

      Andy Reid developed Donovan McNabb into a potential future HOFer, helped a very old Jeff Garcia to have a late career resurgence, turned Michael Vick into one of the best QB’s in the league after being away from football for over a year, had success with a mid round draft pick in AJ Feeley, made Kevin Kolb into a solid starter, and discovered and helped develop Nick Foles into a solid QB, a guy who now is one of the best young QBs in the league. When it comes to QB’s Andy Reid has always had the Midas touch. I really love Alex Smith, but he’s not irreplaceable and he’s not worth the kind of money that would hurt the future of our franchise. Not when we have such a great offensive coach like Andy Reid.

      • Nick the Kick

        You are so spot on if you had a microphone, I’d tell you to drop it and walk off! Fantastic post.

        • Blaize Richardson

          Thanks buddy

  • Bigtexjayhawk

    Trade him now!!! Trade him for Johnny Manziel and their 2nd rounder next year. Use the money to sign our players. So basically we traded 2 second rd picks for 2 years of Alex, Johnny Football and a 2nd rounder.

    • trinity

      Lol I don’t think the browns would be crazy enough to trade the guy they just drafted and another high pick for a 30 year old game manager, but if the chiefs could convince them to do it, I would be in awe of them haha. You know it’s been reported that the chiefs were about to take manziel at 23, but the browns slid one pick in front of them and stole him right? So the manziel interest is definitely there.

  • David Gonzales

    1.) Cut Flowers post June 1st.
    2.) Give Houston a new contract.
    3.) Cut Hali or restructure his contract after 2014. (If Dee Ford is in fact like the late great #58)
    4.) Franchise Smith in 2015 or give him a new contract.
    5.) Draft a franchise WR and let Bowe walk if he under performs his HUGE contract.

  • trinity

    They should sign Alex first, but it depends on negotiations. If they can get a reasonable deal done, they can avoid the franchise tag which would cost them a lot. But if they can’t get him to be reasonable, they should franchise him with the idea that he’ll hit the market after the season, and go from there.

    • berttheclock

      You are NOT a Chiefs fan. Butt out.

      • trinity

        They aren’t my favorite team, so that means I can’t have an opinion about them? Says the guy who rarely fails to talk about the 49ers. Since they aren’t your favorite team, you’re officially banned from giving an opinion on them…..see how stupid that sounds?

        • berttheclock

          I am a diehard Chiefs fan. Yes, I do read sfgate about both the A’s and the Niners. I respect what both Scott McCloughan and Baalke have done and, as we have picked up players from the Niners I do like to read about their team. However, I have rarely posted on their blogs. There are many fine fans of the Niners who post here and they are welcome because they come to praise Alex Smith and do not knock him. You only come here to knock Alex Smith and you can play with your Head Start playmate, micah, in bashing him. You never offer any positives about the Chiefs, so, once, again, butt off.

          • trinity

            I’ve praised JC countless times, and the only negative things I’ve ever said has been Alex Smith only, not the chiefs as a whole, so you are wrong yet again. You fly off the handle like a whiny brat because I don’t agree with you, but Micah and I are the childish ones right? Sure bert. If you don’t like what I have to say, don’t respond. Period.

          • berttheclock

            When you were thrilled with micah calling Alex Smith, “Ass11″, you showed your true colors. That usage is insipid and anyone agreeing with it is equally insipid. Call out micah for calling him that and calling him garbage and I might reconsider my views on you. Praising JC does not give you a pass. You praised the pejorative usage from micah and you can not escape that fact.

          • trinity

            Ass11 is his nickname for Alex. I call him average alex. Names to express our opinion on a football player that we dislike as football fans. It is NOT a personal attack on you. Whereas you don’t even bother with defending your football position anymore, all you do is start hurling personal insults. And I don’t care about how you see me bert. I am in my early 20s, and I have assumed from your history lessons that you are significantly older than me. But I must say, on this forum, you certainly do not act like it. Think whatever you like.

          • berttheclock

            No, you are equally obtuse and opaque as micah. I do not express my football opinions with ones I have absolutely no respect for. There are many fans of the Chiefs who disagree with my positions and I accept their points of view because they are Chief’s fans and we are family in the Great Chiefs Nation. You condoning that “nickname” is ridiculous. I realize your comments are not a personal attack on me, but, you continue to go along with the name calling of our excellent QB, Alex Smith, so be gone.

          • trinity

            You really should chill bert. In all seriousness. You need to take care of yourself, because this high strung outrage you have against people you don’t even know just can’t be healthy. Feel however you want. The hate is definitely not returned by me. I may poke fun at your football position, but I don’t know you and certainly don’t know if you are stupid. Until the next Alex Smith topic, later.

          • micah stephenson

            Wow. I’m the same way. Out of all the players on the team, ASS11 is the only player that I get acused of being negative about. Just becuase we feel ASS11 is avg and just a stop gap QB, we are the worst villians in the history of man kind. If wanting to upgrade the qb is being negative, ok, ill b negative.

          • trinity

            I agree with that. And it’s not like we are throwing around some foreign concept lol. Alex Smith’s limitations are common knowledge and have been for years.

    • Nick the Kick

      With all the shit you talk on Smith, how can you advocate signing him first? Hell, I have a higher opinion of the guy than you do by a lot and think Houston is the important signing. Not being a KC fan, maybe you don’t know how good Houston is. He was PFF top rated OLB for 2013 and he is only going to get better as he is still playing on a rookie deal. Houston is far better than anyone on the Saints defense.

      • trinity

        Calm down. I wasn’t saying I like Smith. I can’t stand Smith. And I definitely know how great Justin is, no doubt. I said nail Smith first so your organization can avoid a very expensive franchise tag. I would try to sing him to a reasonable deal to avoid that. But notice I said reasonable. If 100+ million is all he will take, then I say fuck him. We’ll see what happens.

        • Calchiefsfan

          Here we go again, lol.

          • trinity

            It’s nothing personal. Especially not with you, you seem fine. Lol I just get a kick out of debating Alex. Same with Romo and that crybaby Philip Rivers. I can’t stand any of the 3, so it always makes for interesting debate with people who do like them lol.

          • Nick the Kick

            Your ideas at least seem well thought out and not just straight uninformed troll like your buddy.

        • Nick the Kick

          Right on. I can’t believe I’m saying this but mostly your right. While I think you woefully underestimate Smith if he wants $126 million he is living in fantasyland. His real value is somewhere between your estimation and his agent’s.

        • Nick the Kick

          Here is my estimation of Alex Smith. He is Red Ryan’s dream QB. He will never make the mistake that kills you, consistently pick up first downs and chew clock, and occasionally make a crazy athletic play that few guys can. He would have won the 05 Bears a Super bowl and is better than Dilfer, Brad Johnson, other guys who have one it all. Smith is also capable of really lighting it up occasionally like his Colts and Saint playoff games. What he can’t do is put a team on his back and carry them. He wins because of his team, never in spite of them.

          • trinity

            I agree with some of your points, and see some of the other ones a bit differently.
            To me his positives are that he is efficient, intelligent, and most of all he is not a mistake maker. He will not have a Matt schaub, tony Romo type meltdown that ruins everything. I would take him over romo.

            The negatives is his physical limitations, the fact that he doesn’t contribute much to wins (check his stats), the fact that he needs so much help (I know football is a team sport, but Alex can’t get a W if JC doesn’t carry a huge burden, Reid doesn’t simplify what he asks of him, and the defense doesn’t hold the opposing offense to a low score on most occasions), and the fact that looking at his career, he doesn’t light it up enough for me to be impressed. Overall, he doesn’t suck to me. He’s not terrible. I just think he’s ok. Average, you know? I know you guys feel he is more.

          • Nick the Kick

            Maybe if you could give me a couple NFL guys you think he is comparable to? I think you don’t factor in his athletic playmaking ability like buying time or breaking off big runs. His arm strength is much better than most critics give him credit for, don’t forget from a physical standpoint he was drafted ahead of Rodgers. If all his wins were 14-10 you’d have a point about defense, but they are not. I think Smith is a taller Russel Wilson without the youth upside. I also think having 8 OCs in 8 years and playing on some dreadful 49ers teams hurt his growth. I’m not comparing them but think Steve Young or Jim Pluncket. And no one would accuse KC of elite O talent. Smith would win in Minnesota or Buffalo too.

          • trinity

            It’s difficult to choose a comparison for Smith. I think he is like Romo, except in reverse. Lol follow me here…..I think Romo is a top level physical talent, but unfortunately he is also a bottom level mistake maker. The talent is more abundant than the mental toughness.

            Smith is that in reverse to me. In my opinion, he is a bottom level physical talent. He has limitations and he needs help. But he is at a high level in terms of the mental aspect. He plays within his limitations and he’s steady. It’s just that to me, those limitations are what dooms him. I agree thag he is underrated when it comes to scrambling. But I think comparing him to Russel is a bit much, because I think Russel is more of a playmaker, and is less cautious. I would take Smith over Romo and his stats, but I wouldn’t want the guy leading my superbowl charge. I agree about success in minnesota because of Adrian Peterson, but it would depend on if norv would be willing to change his game plan. His is super complicated per reports from the Vikings camp, and he would need to simplify it for Smith. I’m not certain about buffalo. They are one of the few teams that I don’t know much about.

          • Nick the Kick

            Teams don’t pick QBs 1st overall unless they are physical marvels. They usually don’t pick anybody above the 3rd round who isn’t a measurable freak. I think Smith came into the league on a very bad team and made a lot of mistakes trying to carry them. As the team got better on defense and running the ball he realized all he had to do was not make the big mistake. In his first 8 KC games he played the same way. If you have elite running and D that is what you want from your QB because you will win a lot of games. Now that he is being asked to do more and is over the San Francisco state of mind he played a lot more open the 2nd half and if you extrapolate those #s over a 16 game season you get like 4K yards and 38 TD plus big rushing #s. I honestly don’t know what he is capable of, but I think he could be top 10, never top 5. On Minnesota and Buffalo I just picked two teams with good running games average skill guys with losing records who would win with Smith. The Jets and Rams would work just as well.

          • trinity

            I see your point about the draft, but I never consider draft. Because the draft to me is like the casino lol. It’s one big gamble. Sometimes that top pick is jackpot ( luck, manning), sometimes you lose every dime you have (Russel). Guys like christian ponder go early, guys like Aaron Rogers slide. Even the best college prospects are never sure things to me. I’m even taking a wait and see approach to clowney and sammy Watkins lol, and most people have already fallen in love with them. As far as 10 ten, I personally don’t think so for Alex. Just because my personal top ten would only be guys who can carry thier team. Like manning won the superbowl with the 21st ranked defense. Brady carried a garbage defense to the superbowl to face Eli. Or guys who are apart of the new generation who have shown flashes of brilliance. Luck, kap, wilson. I would not put smith at the bottom like you might think, but I would have him middle of the pack. To me, he’s not a franchise quarterback, but a guy who you would feel really comfortable with while you looked for one. But the problem lies in him asking for franchise money if that report is true. That is a huge problem to me.

          • Nick the Kick

            Can’t really argue with that. Please note I have Smith’s ceiling as a low end top ten player. I don’t think anyone not in the top 5 (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Luck in that order) can carry a less than decent team any length of time. As far as the young guys, Luck will be a h.o.f.er, Wilson is a game manager with pizzazz, Dalton is a roller coaster, RGIII has huge potential and is the most fun to watch,and Kapernick is the most overrated guy in the league. If I had a team like the Niners I would have rode AS 11 to two Lombardis already. He can’t make more than one read. His physical potential is off the charts, but that thing above his neck is a bag of hammers with felonious intent. How weak does ego have to be as a pro QB to follow the people who troll you on Twitter? How do you find yourself tokin, eating disco biscuits, and pounding shots with 2 practice squad dudes and a naked comatose chick while negotiating an $18 million contract? Can u imagine any of the top 5 in that situation? I know Luck kinda reminds me of Buffalo Bob from Silence of the Lambs, but come on!

          • trinity

            Lol wow. You seem as set in your opinion on kap as I am about Alex, so I won’t try to change your mind, but i have to say I disagree with some of your points. What I agree on, is how stupid it is for him to favorite the tweets by his “haters”. It’s lame and I want to see him ignore it. I understand his motivational angle, but I still don’t like it. And about that situation with the girl, I am split on that. On one hand, you don’t hear about shit like this happening to Peyton and the other elites. But on the other hand, most of the story is out now, and he definitely didn’t even come close to doing what those absurd first reports implied he did. I’m glad it was nothing more severe and I bet he will learn from it.

            Now where we disagree is everything else. Lol yes, he certainly is a little full of himself. But I don’t mind a little arrogance if you’re good. Right now I think he is still developing. Remember, he doesn’t even have a full 3 years on the job yet. I’ve seen flashes of brilliance from him. He’s already lethal on the run, and he’s got a ridiculous arm, is a great teammate, is really determined and has a good work ethic. He’s getting there. That playoff game last season against green bay at frozen lambau field! Forgive the profanity, but that was some boss ass shit by kaepernick lol! That was a gutsy, grueling performance and I loved it. But he is not perfect as evidenced in the championship game. What I think is that he will be ok because his flaws are more to do with lack of experience than lack of talent. He has to calm down, throw first run second, improve the accuracy om an already great arm. I think by year 5, this guy will have a title and be a lethal weapon in this league.

          • Nick the Kick

            Could be, but I am a doubter because the great ones with move skills are running to pass downfield. I agree that the packer game was redonkulus, but it was also like watching Auburn thrash my Mizzo Tigers in the SEC championship, a gimmicky wing-t one time thing. I don’t know yet, but I feel like RGIII is the real truth because I feel like the smarts are there. Kap has a huge upside advantage over Smith, but could I get you to admit that a team as loaded as the 2012 49ers would have been better served finishing the year with Smith and a Lombardi? That team just needed a guy not to make the big mistake to win it all. I don’t think KC is that far away defensively from being the sort of team who gets hot late and could win all with someone like Alex.

          • trinity

            The reason I would go kap over RG3 is because kap is a team player. He does have his ego, but he loves his teammates, and when you hear him talk about them, he almost sounds like a fan lol. And those guys have his back. They believe in him. Meanwhile in Washington, RG3 was left lying in the dirt by his teammates hahaha. They would not even help him up off the ground, because they
            Didn’t like him. That’s to do with his entitled diva attitude that rubbed his teammates the wrong way. When I look at the 2, I think kap is about the team and RG3 is about himself and his brand, and I choose kaepernick any day of the week over RG3.

            As for Alex winning a superbowl in San Francisco, anything is possible. However I don’t think that would have happened. That’s the thing about Alex to me. He will be steady, but win or lose the majority of the time it seems to have little to do with him either way. Remember, in his most successful year in San Francisco, the guy only tossed 17 touchdowns in 16 games. He just didn’t really have much to do with it. There are worse quarterbacks like romo who would have kept fucking up in a way that Alex never would. But there are other playmaking QBs would I think could have got that team over the hump. To me, it’s no accident that you literally substitute one guy (Alex Smith) for another (Colin kaepernick) and just like that you’re in the superbowl. No major personnel changes at all. Just take out a single guy and replace him with a single guy, and boom. As for KC, I think it really will come down to that defense and run game. But the AFC has Tom and Peyton until they retire, and then luck. Those are guys who can score against good defenses, which puts Alex in a position to have to outduel them. He did a really really great job last year and almost pulled it out, but just observing him for a decade, do you think he will be able to do that consistently?

          • Kisersosay

            Ah wrong….didn’t they also replace the punt returner? Maybe a more significant change that made the difference in getting to the Superbowl. :)

          • trinity

            Hahaha :). Yeah, screw kap and that defense. The 49ers special teams are the real bosses ;)

          • Nick the Kick

            Giving him $126 million contract takes away his best asset, making enough plays to be carried by a great D.

          • Nick the Kick

            Sorry this comment belongs up top, my Map stuff is below.

          • Nick the Kick

            We should know about Kapernick after this year, baring injury. He now has Crabtree, Boldin,Davis, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, and like four early draft picks @ RB. Blaine Gabbert could put good passing #s with that cast. I still say the athletic dynamo to make it big is Griffin. The thing about Kap is that if you put him on the Jaguars, they are still the Jags, with more ball security issues than before. However, I’ve been wrong before and will gladly hear an I told you so if Kap shows big ups this year.

          • trinity

            Yeah I’m going to be looking for kap big time this year. I hope he succeeds, except against my team ;) lol. We will definitely see what happens with him, Alex and everyone. I just love this game lol. Not just my own team, but everything about it

          • Stan

            Hey guys it’s hard to argue with idiots (Trinity/Micah). Maybe we should call them “Dumb and Dumber”.

          • trinity

            Bert already came up with that idea, so try to be a bit more creative with your insults.

          • Stan

            OK let’s try “Cracker Heads”.

          • trinity

            I’m pretty much immune to insults, so whatever makes your day sport.

          • Nick the Kick

            Hey dude, if it means anything I don’t see you being rude or making ad hominem attacks on people who disagree with you which is what I hate about talking football and politics these days. Your reasoning seems sound and I don’t really get why people are so butt hurt @u. Keep up the level of public discourse on the Chiefs by continued posting as long as you attack the idea and not the person who holds it.

          • Nick the Kick

            You just know that Andrew Luck has a dry well in his basement with a kidnapped coed in it who he yells at to “Put the fucking dog in the basket!” He looks and sounds just like that guy. Also, I don’t know if you watch NFL top 100 players, but the other night they interviewed Bills center Erik Wood and he looks exactly that the fat kid Thurman Merman from Bad Santa.

          • trinity

            Hahahahaha. You really cracked me up with that dude. Luck does seem to have a wierd effect to him lol. I would lock my car door if I saw him at night and didn’t know he was andrew luck

          • Stacy D. Smith

            Except that he engineered a 44-point offensive performance without his best offensive player (the heart and soul of the team).

          • Nick the Kick

            What part of “He is occasionally capable of lighting it up like the Colts and Saint playoff games” did you not understand? I like Alex Smith and think my assessment of his abilities is fair. I don’t see why you need to make him into Tom Brady or Manning who he ain’t by a damn sight.

          • trinity

            Exactly man. I didn’t agree with all your points, but at least you didn’t go over the top like stacy always does

  • PhataLerror

    All of the fans that want Aaron Murray’s potential over Alex Smith’s demonstrated ability need to understand that if in three years Aaron Murray is half the quarterback Alex Smith is today, inflation will likely force Murray’s second contract above the amount Smith’s camp is reportedly asking for today. This controversy has nothing to do with Smith’s demonstrated value during the past three years, and everything to do with a lack of confidence that Smith has legitimately progressed after wallowing in bad situations for the first six years of his NFL career.

    The Chiefs need both Justin and Smith, can expect both to continue improving, and aren’t likely to regret either signing three years from now as long as they both stay healthy.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      Amen to all of that!

    • jacati

      spot on

    • Kisersosay

      It has nothing to do about a “lack of confidence in Smith”. Get real ….Dorsey and Reid believe in him and his ability to be a perfect fit for this offense. It is just about the money….it will get done at some point and then we can all talk about how much Smith is overpaid/underpaid. That is just the reality of the business side of the NFL.

  • Josh Landers

    Signing Houston should definitely be our top priority. He is the future of our d along with Poe. Signing smith comes in at a very close second though. Yes, we have bray and Murray learning behind him right now and either one could turn out to be great. Both could need another year or two to find close to as much as success as smith has and they may never reach it. Just look how long it took smith to get it together.

    • berttheclock

      Remember the first year for Brady. Belichick thought enough of him to keep four QBs on the roster that first year.

      • Josh Landers

        I guess well see how it all shakes out but if memory serves bray outperformed Daniel in the preseason last year. Daniel also has a pretty fat backup qb contract. If bray repeats this year then I would think we could get a late round pick for Daniel. I’m not sure why everyone jumped ship on bray so quickly. Everything I’ve read says that he’s been working hard to be the best he can be. Bray and Murray = potential starters. Daniel = potential backup. IMHO.

        • Blaize Richardson

          That’s a great point to be made. Bray’s ceiling is certainly way higher than Daniel’s and he might be a better QB right as it stands. He clearly outplayed Daniel last pre-season and has much more natural talent. Sure Daniel got the nod on the depth chart, but you have to think that a lot of that had to do with his contract and veteran status. I think this pre-season will be very interesting, when it comes to the battles for the QB position.

  • Calchiefsfan

    Since when is this an either/or situation. Sign them both and let’s go about having a good season.

    • berttheclock

      Say Amen.

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      Since the NFL has operated under a maximum salary cap.

      • Calchiefsfan

        Dorsey should be able to make it work. He has options and a year to get it all done.

        • Suzi Conger

          True

    • Suzi Conger

      Amen

  • Blaize Richardson

    Look I get the argument completely and I agree in principle that Alex Smith deserves to be paid more than Jay Cutler and even Tony Romo, who’s coming off those back injuries and is getting up there in age. The problem is Jay Cutler and Tony Romo are both vastly overpaid. I agree whole heartedly though with the rest of your post. We should definitely get Houston locked up for a long time. He’s young and hasn’t even reached his prime yet and is an integral core to our team. He’s 100% irreplaceable.

    Alex Smith is a QB I love and I really hope a deal can be worked out (so long as it’s not to the detriment to the team or the future of the team), but he’s not irreplaceable. I have full faith that if our QBOTF isn’t currently on our team, Dorsey/Reid can find/develop that guy within the next couple years (assuming we have to franchise Alex Smith).

  • Marcell Erogin

    I like Alex Smith and I hope he stays but I don’t really care for the Romo and Cutler comparison. I personally don’t beleive either one of them is worth THIER contracts.I hope that’s not your only arguement for giving Alex Smith a 100 Million plus contract. Markets can and do become overvaluated.

  • GDL40

    Agree 100% with making sure we get Houston taken care of before anything else. IF Smith wants the kind of money being reported, let him play this year, if you still want him after that you tag him next year, would still be cheaper. Houston is the future of or defense ! I don’t agree with saying sign Smith even if it means losing Houston since we have Ford…that’s wasting a 1st round pick, unless you are sure Ford will be as good as Houston. Even then its a wasted pick because you just filled a hole u didn’t need to create. Will be fun this year with them 2 and Hali!

  • Shiloh

    Hey all… Never posted before but felt like I needed to contribute an idea. If I’m Dorsey (and thank God I’m not) I would be paying A LOT of attention to Michael Vick over the course of next year. Think about this… He is signed with the Jets for 5 million right now on a one year contract. Next year he is on the market and if you mean to tell me that Reid won’t be taking a heavy look at picking him up for way less then half of what they would have to pay Smith, I would be shocked. It’s incredibly ideal and I don’t think I have to tell you the reasons, though I will anyway: Along with his contract being cheaper, Vick is very familiar with Reid’s system, Vick and Reid have an incredible relationship still to this day, Vick is considered old and played out, but before being injured he had a higher passing yard average then he ever has, and had the second highest rushing yard average of his career…. 7 touchdowns to 3 interceptions (including rushing) and his 4th highest QBR at the age of 33. Alex Smith will be 33 in three years and you mean to tell me he will be producing significantly better then that in three years? Enough to sign him to a hefty contract? I think Reid and Dorsey have a trick up their sleeve and that tricks name is Michael Vick. And to be frank, I love the idea of picking him up. He may not be better then Alex Smith right now, but think about what he did with Reid and the incredibly cheap pricetag he will demand…. Way too tempting. Tempting enough that it should happen.

    • Troy Utt

      Shiloh, Although I see your point & Vick may well be had for quite the economical price, I just don’t see KC or Dorsey even taking a second look at him! Even with Reid being the coach of second chances…
      KC may well have their best stable of QB’s in which they have ever had.
      Top to bottom their is something for everyone… Without doubt Smith is our starter & will be for at least the next few years. After Smith is when it gets exciting! Daniel will most likly be gone soon due to his herty contract. Not to mention that said contract was most likly the only thing that helped him keep the #2 job last season after the show Bray put on!
      IMO (& not alone w/it either) I was so excited & could not believe KC was lucky enough to have picked up Bray as an UDFA. Originally slotted no lower than a third rd pick he fell out of the draft due to maturity concerns, all of which have been answered & put behind now.
      His combine report compares his arm / throwing style to Brett Farve…
      He has a cannon for an arm & is not afraid to throw into tight places.
      I look for Bray to be #2 on the depth chart this season due to the time he’s had with the playbook.
      The wild-card is Aaron Murray… Reids hybrid WCO is a perfect system for an everyday WCO QB… Had Murray come out last year, I suspect KC may well have considered him rather than Fisher???
      Who knows at this point??? WAR CHIEFS!!!

  • Daniel Mayfield

    I’m with a lot of the fans. Put the tag on him at the end of this season. He had 1 great season with KC…just 1. Now, it’s pretty much a completely new OL. His season might be horrible this yr to where they put him on the bench. (I don’t see that happening but who knows?)
    Forget about the contract for now and focus on the season!
    1 season in KC….while the RB, JC carried a lot of season on his shoulders. Now Smith wants $126mil contract? CRAZY!!!

    • Suzi Conger

      Installing a potentially horrible OLine (this season) is hardly Smith’s fault; it’s to his detriment. He should not be judged or criticized because of a crappy OLine. Our OLine and receivers were Grade D (PFF) last season; Smith made them look much better than they were. Smith put up 44 PTS vs colts WITHOUT jcharles…guess that demonstrates just how much AS11 needs jc to be rated #1 nfl QB in post-season competition. Remember 2-14 when charles, houston, et al were without ASmith. Not to mention jc went nowhere in Pro-Bowl, and Alex earned an additional $27K for each of his ProBowl team-mates with his Game Winning clutch TD drive :-)

      $126mil = Gossip Rumors… “Although I find this comical (humorous)…you are clearly misinformed. Your “source” is leading you astray” well-said by Elizabeth Smith May 24th IOW; Nobody knows what the Chiefs are offering, nor what Alex is asking,,

      • Daniel Mayfield

        I’m not judging Smith…I said, “His season MIGHT be horrible”. I know he was great last yr and I posted that too.
        Now you, on the other hand, are judging the OL and we have no idea what they will be like. Unless you can see into the future.
        If you can…tell me how well they do. Or, I have a better idea! Tell me the lottery numbers and I’ll give you 33% of it! lol $126mil is to much when we don’t know how well he will do the 2nd season…that’s how it should be with any QB, or how I would do it as a coach

        • Suzi Conger

          Daniel,,,, please re-read; “potentially horrible”,,,ummmm “potentially” = maybe, possibly…defintely not ‘judging’…check your definitions of English. Sarcasm only comes comes back in your face, lol Geeez daniel, lighten up :-) You apparently didn’t read, or know the meaning of ‘potential(ly)’. Many pundits and ‘bloggers’ share the same OL concern (as you know); of course, time will tell. Sarcasm is insipid and rarely ‘pays off’. Oh,,, lol.

          Yes, you did post that Smith was great last year, and I was merely trying to agree that his season might be horrible, due to a potentially horrible OL. I, contrary to yourself, did not say “you” should not judge Smith ….I said, ‘he should not be judged…” Many people that do not understand the rudiments of OL protection/time to execute, will blame the QB for low offensive production…similar to the ’13 first half- season.

          .In reality, Smith has performed 3 excellent seasons,,,there is no reason, other than poor(er) OL protection and time to execute, for Smith to perform worse than last season second-half. To put up 44 Pts vs colts WITHOUT jcharles, and executing with ‘seconds’, it is very clear who is the OMVP is; 2-14 without AS11 (with jcharles, et al), and 11-5 + WC with AS11 at center.

          I think you missed my point: I find it humorous that some people are feeding and speculating off of unsubstantiated ‘rumors’ which = gossip. I was merely agreeing with Liz Smith.

          • Daniel Mayfield

            Yeah, I should have re-read or paid more attention to your words. My bad….now please, don’t judge me on that. :-)
            Ok, that’s not as funny as I thought it would be. Sounds funnier when you hear it.
            Anyway…Smith might have another great season and, in your words, the OL could potentially be better then last seasons. (Not mocking you)
            We will never know how good the OL is until we see them play. But I’m sure we both know that much.
            1 question for you……do you think Smith is worth $126mil after just 1 season and being 30 yrs old? Reason I bring the age up is he might not have more then 3 or 4 more yrs in him.

          • Suzi Conger

            Thanks for the recognition.Smith has had his third excellent season and 30 yrs is barely prime. Barring injury, I can see Alex being very productive til 36/37 yrs of age.
            Personally I don’t believe any one football player is ‘worth’ 126 mil. (including Alex) . However, many of these ‘big deals’ are not what they seem. The media reports, in many cases, are very inaccurate and misleading. Take ck7′s new deal; many ‘weasel clauses’, injury (team) safeguards, low guaranteed $, ck7 is up for annual evaluation, etc.

      • Troy Utt

        Suzy, Surrounded with the proper personell,Smith should pick up right where he left off last season. The intro of starting caliber TE’s for AS11 to have at his disposal in the WCO is huge & would be the major diff between this season & last w/the lack of a pass catching WR..
        The fact that Smith finished near or at the top of every measurable category is very telling as to the diff that both Harbaugh / Reid have brought in regard to stability in regard to the ‘system.’ Even with the record setting pace Manning was on last seasson, one would be hard pressed to find a better QB on the field during the second half than Alex Smith! Even thru the losses Smith was grinding it out, one play, one first down, one series at a time!!! Had it not been for the efforts of both Smith & JC last season could have turned out very different…
        Going forward there are ways to pay both Smith & Houston. Wait on either & it could well wind up costing us the farm!!! All the speculation as to what Smiths salary might be has done nothing but cause discord with those fans, many of which aren’t willing to give Smith his prop’s due to personal prejudice. No matter the game plan, etc… the numbers don’t lie! Smith finished ranked higher than Kaep, Luck, Griffen, & Wilson to name the few from that draft class. That’s higher in Comp%, Passing TD’s, Passing YD’s, & Red-Zone, Not to mention QBR, & pass attp’s down-field of 20-40 yd’s+… Wilson being the only exception ranked 2 spots higher w/3 more TD’s…
        The point is Alex Smith has developed into a master of running the WCO when given the tools! Regardless of what did or didn’t happen during those first 6 seasons under 6 diff OC, & 6 diff off systems.
        (3-head-coaches to boot) All I care about at this point is what Smith can do for the KC Chiefs going forward!
        That said IMO there is a number somplace in the middle which is fair to both sides… Pay the man so we can move forward…

  • phantomebb

    I actually had QB2 ranked 1st from the beginning. Far more rushing yards meaning alot more 1st downs and far less turnovers. A turnover is the biggest difference maker in any game. 3-1 touchdown to int ratio as well.

  • tm1946

    Neither of the two guys seem all that interested in any kind of home town discount. I suspect long term we lose both. If you add age and injury, Dorsey needs a long term approach to new contracts, could be why we have Ford and Murray.
    Time will tell but there always seems a disconnect between players and our team. Get a good one and the team cannot build around him or he wants so much money we have to move on. Not sure why.

  • Chris Tarrants

    Keep Houston at all cost. He will be the backbone of our defense for the next ten years. Let Smith play out his contract and evaluate what he is worth. Can Reid turn Murray into our franchise QB? Yes. Will it happen? Time will tell but Houston must stay