Chiefs Wide Receivers: Bombs Over Baghdad, Or Just Bombs


1 Feature From The Bleachers

It was August 14, of 2013 and the Chiefs were preparing to break camp. Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe was asked about the long ball not showing up in practice and if he was concerned about that? Bowe said,

“No, not at all. We’re progressing. You know, um. Coach says you gotta crawl before you can walk. As long as were moving the chains the offense will be productive. You know it’s preseason. We working on some mechanics, we working on getting the ball thrown deep. So, it’s all a process. We just got one game down and three to go and then that’s when you’ll see the real season start and that’s when you’ll see … bombs over Baghdad,”

Well, that’s not exactly how the season turned out. In fact, Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles was the Chiefs leading receiver.

So, can Chiefs fans expect “the bombing” to commence in Andy Reid’s second season as the Chiefs head coach or should we expect more of the same?

Well, let’s first take a look at who produced any receiving yards worth mentioning in 2013.

Yards, Position and Player

693 RB Jamaal Charles

673 WR Dwayne Bowe

596 WR Donnie Avery

511 WR Dexter McCluster

302 TE Sean McGrath

200 TE Anthony Fasano

155 WR A.J. Jenkins

125 WR Junior Hemingway

75 RB Knile Davis

105 Among 4 other players

3,561 Total Receiving Yards

 

Kansas City’s 3,561 yards placed them 24th in the league in receiving. It’s been suggested that the low totals for Chiefs receivers comes by design. That Andy Reid’s offenses traditionally spread the ball out between many players. So, let’s take a look at Andy’s last year with his previous team, the Philadelphia Eagles 2012 results.

 

Yards, Position and Player

857 WR Jeremy Maclin

700 WR DeSean Jackson

684 TE Brent Celek

648 WR Jason Avant

373 RB LeSean McCoy

256 WR Damaris Johnson

248 WR Riley Cooper

186 TE Clay Harbor

123 Among 3 other players

4,075 Total Yards

 

If you recall 2012 was a down year in Philly and after finishing 4-12 Andy Reid ended up in Kansas City. In 2011, the season of the infamous “Dream Team” they finished with 4,276 total receiving yards but, reaching true Dream Team status was a bit of a misnomer ending the season at 8-8.

In reflection, it appears the notion that the Chiefs receiving output in 2013 is not within any norm for an Andy Reid offense. While DeSean Jackson, in 2010, was the last Eagles receiver (in Reid’s system) to gain more than one-thousand yards in a season (1,056), that amount is so nominal that there appears to be less of an emphasis on the production that would come in a traditional wide receiver setup: WR1, WR2, Slot WR…. Reid’s preference appears to have a higher number of receivers, including those from many positions, producing equally, thus creating an increasingly difficult defensive task for coverage.

However, if the Chiefs produce the same numbers in 2014 that they produced in 2013 I think most K.C. fans will be disappointed. So… should Kansas City Chiefs fans expect the numbers of this year’s wide receiving corp to be any better in 2014 than they were in 2013?

Jamaal Charles

Charles should produce with the same amount of frequency as he did in 2013 but, don’t expect him to be the team’s number one wide receiving target. If he is… don’t count on the passing program being considered a wide success.

Dwayne Bowe

Bowe is back and after a low output season he should bounce back and produce much better numbers. After gaining his lowest number of years in 2013 fans should remember that Bowe had previously gained 995 yards or more in four of  his previous six seasons. This season will be his 8th season overall (6,401 career yards receiving) and if he maintains his current 917 yards per year average, should break Otis Taylor’s all-time receiving yards* record (7,306), for a Wide Receiver, by the end of the 2014 season.

*Tony Gonzales holds the all-time receiving record for a Chief with 10,940 yards. Tony’s career total (15,127 career yards) are so outstanding that only four receivers (all wide receivers) in the history of the game, have gained more yards.

Donnie Avery

Avery was targeted 72 times during the 2013 season. He caught the ball 40 times. When you’re only catching 56% of the balls thrown your way there’s a problem. A big problem. If he has the same drop-o-lop-ogus problems holding on to the ball this season, he most certainly will be looking for a new team… and probably not finding it… in 2015. However, the Chiefs perhaps should not have signed Avery in the first place. In 2012, Andrew Luck’s rookie year, Avery was targeted 125 times and he caught 60 of those. That’s 48%. So, 56% is a step up for him. By comparison, Bowe caught 57 of 105 last year for a 54% catch rate. However, Bowe isn’t known for his hands so let’s look at someone like Sean McGrath. McGrath was targeted 40 times and caught the ball 26 times for a 65% rate. The point? Both Bowe and Avery must improve their catch rate or the Chiefs are likely headed for a similar outcome for their receiving corp in 2014.

De’Anthony Thomas

Thomas will be a wide receiver in Andy Reid’s offense. He may infrequently line up at RB but that’s not how the Chiefs will be using him in their pass-centric offense. The reason I’m listing Thomas fourth here is that he will probably be the 3rd or 4th most productive WR in the Chiefs offense this coming year as well as the 3rd or 4th option Reid utilizes each week. Plus, Thomas had almost 1,300 yards receiving in his college career showing good to great hands. Yes, he has track star speed but he is much more than just a runner.

Anthony Fasano

Fasano averaged 420 receiving yards for the previous five seasons before 2013 so assuming he returns to form, which he should (because he has no other history of injuries prior to 2013), then he should gain that many yards in Reid’s system.

Travis Kelce

Kelce gained 722 yards in his last season in college and Reid’s plan was to use Kelce inside and out giving him some flexibility in two tight end sets. If Kelce comes back strong from his micro-fracture surgery the Chiefs should expect a ton more output from the TE position in 2014.

A.J. Jenkins

It’s all about the big “If” with Jenkins. This is the man who Dorsey traded for from the 49ers in exchange for the Chiefs first round pick in 2011, WR Jonathan Baldwin.  Neither player has broken out yet and the Chiefs will be giving Jenkins the full opportunity he deserves this season. “If” Jenkins does break out you may see the Chiefs let Donnie Avery go sooner than next off-season which won’t hurt my feelings one bit.

Weston Dressler

Dressler has averaged 1,088 yards for the past six seasons in the Canadian football league and if he gets in the Chiefs regular rotation should produce but probably as a slot receiver and kick returner. Dressler also averaged 7 TD per season so he knows how to get into the end zone. Some will say that the football in Canada doesn’t translate to the NFl but Dressler has been an all-star performer there and he should be a solid role player for K.C at the minimum. Dressler may also be “the reason” that the Chiefs didn’t go for a wide out in th 2014 NFL draft.

The Chiefs have some other talented receivers on the roster. Junior Hemingway caught 81% of the passes thrown his way so you’d hope he gets targeted more because he has the ability to make the hard catches over the middle. Fourth year WR Kyle Williams hasn’t gotten much of a chance in the NFL yet. However, he did have over 1,600 receiving in college and the Chiefs have brought him back this season to see if he can be a contributor. 6-7, 230 lb. Tight End Demetrius Harris should get more of a shot this season. He’s working on his understanding of the play book better but he’s been with the Chiefs for a year now this summer and he should be ready to join the rotation by now. If not, the Chiefs may release him and go another direction. They can’t wait forever.

Bombs over Baghdad? The original question may have been about “going long” but given the resources at Andy Reid’s disposal, the Chiefs should be able to build and progress based on a solid core of individual receivers who can 1) hold onto the ball when thrown at and 2) QB Alex Smith’s increased familiarity with his targets.

I’d like to see the Chiefs attempt to go long a little more this year and Alex Smith’s playoff game performance tells me he’s up for the chore.

Bombs over Baghdad? Yea, I think that’s a possibility in 2014.

What do you say Addict fans? Are the Chiefs wide receiving corp going to be the bomb… or a bomb?

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Tags: Kansas City Chiefs

  • berttheclock

    “Alex Smith’s increased familiarity with his targets” says much.

    Last season, all, including Alex Smith were learning a new system. In the early part of the season, the offensive line was a work in progress and Smith had to scramble often. Wide outs were having major problems getting open. Avery’s best game was against the Eagles on slants. However, the very next game was the Giants who had watched that game film and jammed him. After that, Avery appeared to be lost. Then, injuries followed to Fasano. With Kelce injured, the next man up was McGrath, who was a new player for Smith to get used to in patterns. Jenkins didn’t really come on until late in the season, but, one could see Smith was getting comfortable with him.

    Last season was a developmental season and nothing from it should be set in stone. With the coming OTAs and St Joe, Smith will be able to have the same OC for two seasons and more time to get to know his wide outs. My biggest concern for the passing game is how quickly will the offensive line come together so it will not be a version of Scramble II. It may not come down to “Bombs over Baghdad”, but, more of something resembling the “Music Man” with “peck a little, scratch a little, peck a little, peck, peck, peck, peck, peck….”

    • Roc

      Always enjoy reading your comments Bert, you should write for this blog

      • micah stephenson

        Don’t encourage him. Even tho he post a lot, his post are often boring or filled with him name calling cus he disagrees with how others feel. Definitely not the type of personality you want to add to the staff.

        • berttheclock

          The only name calling I have used at this site is directed to you, micah, because of your usage of pejoratives directed at Alex Smith. You began calling him garbage and using that ridiculous “Ass11″ to refer to him. But, I did add trinity when he congratulated you on using that “A __ 11. Stop that nonsense and I will desist calling you out.

      • freshmeat62

        When they put that message in a few weeks ago about looking for a new columnist for AA, one of the first that came to my mind was micah. His grasp of the English language, and his ability to argue his points w/ such thought out logic, are beyond compare.

        Damn, almost bit my tongue off.

        • ladner morse

          I’ve tried to encourage Bert too. Maybe someday. Then I can comment on his posts. :)

        • micah stephenson

          Well thank you. At least somebody pre she ates the mad skills! Lol. I don’t think anybody anti Ass11 will b welcome to the staff tho.

        • berttheclock

          Ah, sarcasm on the web. Delightful.

      • berttheclock

        Thanks.

    • ladner morse

      Bert… I think most fans are waiting for a little “Greased Lightning.”

      • berttheclock

        Ah, you mean that version Dorsey is working on, the one listed as “systematic, hydromatic, ultramatic with overhead filters and 4 barrel carbs”

  • area

    McGrath is not listed here except for his 61% catch rate. I would be surprised if he was cut. He displayed a knack for route running, blocking down field, and being a decent dump off tight end. Kelce might come in and make McGrath expendable, but I think Kielce is still hobbled up..we’ll see I guess.

    • berttheclock

      I believe McGrath will improve with this being his second season playing. If you read his bio, there were starts and stops along the way and he had very little continuity to really learn the TE position. He had been a pancaking LB in HS. He was just learning to play TE at Eastern Illinois, when, his party hardy problems forced him to move onward to the more religious confines of Henderson State. When, he was able to play, he flourished, but, was injured his senior season which slowed him. Then, he was on and off the practice squad of the Seahawks. So, now, we have an older and wiser bearded one to become far more comfortable with the Chiefs. I await seeing him lining up next to Larry D-T as the two bearded ones on the O-line.

    • berttheclock

      On one of Bowe’s run to the end zone, McGrath laid a great block for him.

    • ladner morse

      The reason I didn’t list McBeard separately is that with him running 3rd string he won’t “increase” the amount of output in 2014. I was only covering the increased output with this list.

  • area

    Hemingway is very intriguing. Small sample size to look at, but for a bigger bodied receiver he always seems to have separation in the end zone without drawing a flag.

    • Phillip Maxwell

      Hemmingway has sticky fingers, I like him, look for him to take a larger role this season. The kid caught 81% of passes thrown his way and if I recall several of those were stretched out snags in spite of Smiths tendency to overthrow inches beyond the finger tips.

      • ladner morse

        I’ve been a consistent admirer of his performance and have wondered… for the past two season… why he doesn’t get more targets.

        • http://batman-news.com Mark Lynch

          Me too. I really liked Hemmingway who, I think, appears at first blush to have some of the same physical characteristics – build, speed – but without the drops, or the off-field problems or the hefty paycheck.

          • KCMikeG

            Exactly! Foolish he didn’t get more reps last year!

      • KCMikeG

        Just imagine how much more productive our offense would be if Hemingway got Bowe’s 105 targets – 25-30 more receptions at 10 yards each would put him right around 1,000 yards. Remember too that Hemingway was a 7th round pick compared to Bowe being a 1st rounder.

  • tm1946

    Nice read, thanks….. only is it Bombs away or Bums away….. or Dorsey sporting a bandit stach and saying “WRs? We don’t need no stinkin’ WRs”?

    • berttheclock

      Hmmm, Dorsey playing “Gold Hat”. Interesting take.

  • Chris Tarrants

    I look for a few more deep balls this year but not a ton more because that goes against Smiths game. The additions to the roster and hopefully Acery being the 3rd or even 4th WR should help with explosive plays. I’m going on a limb here and saying that Alex Smith has 3,900 yards this year with 2,900 being YAC. Charles, Dressler, and Dat all have the ability to take it to the house on any play, the only question is will they?

    • micah stephenson

      3900 yards is a bit much for a QB like Smith. I say more in the 3350 range is more likely.

      • Chris Tarrants

        He had more last year without ever being comfortable. I don’t see him breaking any records this year but I see him getting better then he was

    • ladner morse

      One thing I was going to do is go back through each position and say how much MORE output we could expect this year. I believe the passing game will fairly easily break the 4,000 yard barrier.

      • Chris Tarrants

        I was thinking the same thing but I pulled just short of 4000 because the more I thought about it the bigger my goosebumps got. If Smith can put up over 3500 yards then that should open up the two headed monster in the backfield. Think about the possibility of having two 1000 yard rushers and a 1000 yard reciever! Will Bowe get there? He has before with less of a qb. Will the new kid be electric enough to get 750 or more? Drafting Dat would make Dorsey look like a genius then!

  • micah stephenson

    Untill we get a deep ball throwing QB, it will b firecrackers and sparklers over bagdad instead of bombs. Lol

    • Phillip Maxwell

      Put “Alex Smith deep ball myth” in your search engine and enjoy the video on YouTube.

      • micah stephenson

        Every qb can throw a deep ball but how accurately and often can they do it. The deep ball is not his game. Sure he can throw a deep pass (with lots of ice for his arm to follow) but he won’t throw if often cus he playes to scared.

  • http://batman-news.com Mark Lynch

    And the Bowe boot licking continues…He is KC’s sacred cow.

    He is KC’s “#1″ WR, BUT finished 2nd in receiving – to our Pro Bowl RB! He averaged about 40YPG and was a complete non-factor throughout the season. Our #2 WR (Avery) is ripped mercilessly and yet he finished a mere 77-yards receiving behind the great Dwayne Bowe – with a better catch percentage! Speaking of which, how stupid is this comment: ” By comparison, Bowe caught 57 of 105 last year for a 54% catch rate. However, Bowe isn’t known for his hands so let’s look at someone like Sean McGrath.” Our #1 WR is “not known for his hands”??? And he’s not. The years of drops tell us that. But what good is a #1 WR averaging about 40YPG who CAN’T CATCH??? What’s he making? $11MM/year??? Ugh! I’m surprised you didn’t go into his vaunted down field blocking! That’s what the army of Bowe ballwashers does when he has yet another game where the invisible Bowe manages 2 catches for 15 yards. “Yeah, but they won because of his blocking!” I’m sure that’s EXACTLY what GMs want from the #1 WR making $11MM/year; bad hands, an occasional down field block and a gaudy 33YPG average.

    Bowe’s quote tells you just how little he knows about the offense – and he’s IN IT! There never WAS going to be any “deep balls” – not to him anyway. Avery (possibly Jenkins) would be the only 2 guys on this team with ANY HOPE AT ALL getting open deep, and neither was going to be a major part of this offense. Bowe? My mother can beat him in a foot race. He’s an idiot.

    The guy has failed drug tests, been suspended, has been dropped on the depth chart for coming into camp way over weight & out of shape, been arrested, and has said some of he dumbest things to the press I’ve ever heard. Has he had some good games? Yes – with KC down by 38 in the 3rd quarter. He’s making millions/year on a team with no cap space, acts like a diva moron and can’t catch the damm ball. KC can’t give this stiff away…but blame everybody else when his numbers don’t look good.
    Get used to what we saw from him this past year – that is what we’re getting from this stiff. And the free-passes will keep on coming.

    • ladner morse

      So, you think I’m giving Bowe a “free pass?” Hmm. Maybe I am. I’ll have to look that over.

      However, my question for you is… what would YOU do with Bowe? And if that includes releasing him … THEN WHAT? You want to dump the Chiefs #1 WR over the past 7 years and replace him with nothing? I can recall what it was like on these blogs before 7 years go. Everyone was screaming for a #1 WR in the draft. No, Bowe’s not perfect… and he may even be less perfect for this offense… but, he’s the best the Chiefs have had since Otis Taylor.

      Back to the question I’d like you to answer: what would you do with Bowe?

      • Josh Rose

        There is nothing we can do, due to the over paid contract we gave him to be an OK reciever. So we are stuck with him til his contract expires or he gets in real trouble with the law and it doesn’t get dropped to some bull shit charge. I am confident that Dorsey and Reid with find a Desean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin between then and now and Bowe will end up with Ricky Williams. Smoking weed and talking about their college days when they were good.

        • KCMikeG

          Sad but true I was hoping Bowe got hammered with a big sentence from his court date relieving us of any contractual obligations.

      • Calchiefsfan

        I can remember when Bowe was the only offense we had. Haley wasn’t using Charles nearly enough, we had a poor O line and Cassel was essentially running for his life. Even when Boew was double covered Cassel would just throw it up in hopes Bowe could bring it in. 15 touchdowns and 1300+ yards was the end result of that. I think we’ll see more of Bowe this season.

        • http://batman-news.com Mark Lynch

          This is what drives me nuts. It’s RIDICULOUS. Bowe has a 1300 yard year and IT’S ALL BECAUSE OF BOWE – the QB gets ZERO credit. Bowe SUCKS – which he has REGARDLESS of who was throwing to him, Cassel or Smith – and it’s NEVER Bowe’s fault – it’s the QBs fault even though it was the same damn QB the year before or the year after!! Ridiculous
          Forget the double coverage BS, he’s not DC’d that often, teams don’t have to. And it’s not like any other top “#1″ WR on a team doesn’t see double coverage. Stop making excuses for this guy, he’s average and getting worse. What you will see from Bowe this year is what you got last year. There is no doubt in my mind this guy put it neutral the second he signed that ridiculous albatross of a contract. Problem is, he was almost always in neutral, rarely in drive and often in reverse.

          • KCMikeG

            The $56M contract could easily become Dorsey’s worst move ever in KC.

          • Steve Jones

            I’d be fine with that being his worse move. It’s not as bad as keep Grbac over Gannon or drafting Ryan Sims/Sylvester Morris.

          • KCMikeG

            Letting Gannon go – especially to the hated faiders – is one of the most sickening, disappointing decisions in this franchises’ history. Cost us a run at the SB in 1997. Watching him be a Pro Bowl, top 10 QB for four years straight while making us pay twice a year was so painful.

          • http://batman-news.com Mark Lynch

            What a double standard. Pioli pays Cassel – the guy he mistakenly THOUGHT was KC’s “franchise” QB to $10MM/year and the KC fan base rips him mercilessly for accepting the deal which ultimately costs Pioli his job, and Cassel is run out of town on a rail FOR NOT PRODUCING.
            Dorsey pays Bowe – one of the biggest dog WRs in the league – $11.5MM/year, he FAILS TO PRODUCE, and people are “fine” with it. How f’ing stupid is that???

      • http://batman-news.com Mark Lynch

        I want to clear up my “stupid” comment – nothing to do with you, obviously, or what you wrote – you were 100% correct. I thought your piece was very good, maybe we aren’t in complete agreement w/ Bowe. He’s not fast, he’s not a deep threat of any sort – his skill set is very limited – he is often not on the same page as his QB and has had several off-field issues…that’s not even mentioning the DROPS – which frustrate me beyond words. When you look at the whole big Bowe picture, it’s amazing he’s still playing. BUT because Bowe’s been dropping them for years, we shrug it off and say things like “bad hands” and “he’s a great blocker”. That is what I find ridiculous. How accepting many have become of our #1 WR who has trouble catching the damn ball – and has the warts he has…

        Unfortunately, there is nothing they CAN do right now. His contract and output makes him un-tradable, and there is no financial benefit for KC to cut him this year. I believe they can save some $ next year, so my guess is they part ways with him after this coming season. If his production is anything like his 2013 production, it’s a no-brainer. My answer is,I would do what anyone with an ounce of sense would do if their #1 WR was (1) grossly over-paid (2) can’t catch the ball (3) has multiple off-field problems and (4) has the anemic production he does. Get rid of him and replace him – either via free agency or draft. Seriously – how hard do you think it would be to replace that at a fraction of the price? They just need to take the first step – which is cutting him. I think Dorsey re-signed him for 1 reason; they were bringing in Smith at QB and couldn’t let their “#1 WR” walk. But the contract hurts the team, and his production is that of a 4th WR, not a 1. It’s a passing league – they need a better #1 WR. If they can find that, maybe they won’t find themselves looking or a new QB and new #2 WR every other offseason; last I checked, winning team are turning over their rosters that often at those positions…

        • KCMikeG

          The truth has been spoken. Why doesn’t Bowe get his lazy butt back to Fitz’s offseason camp like he did with Haley’s foot up his ass? He had his best year ever – led the NFL with 15 TD’s! With Cassel at QB. Yet has he been back in the last three years – nope.

        • ladner morse

          I can’t say I disagree with anything you’ve said here… except… how can you justify cutting a player you paid so much money to one year previously if you’re the GM? You’d have to admit a big mistake and GMs don’t do that. Plus, the financial mistake they’d have to live with outweighs any of the perceptions about cutting your top WR. That’s something you;d have to explain to your owner.. Clark Hunt. I agree with KCMikeG that Bowe needs to get his butt back to Larry FItz’s camp for WRs and make sure he’s working as hard as any receiver in the league.

          I visited Chiefs camp last year and Bowe was off on the sidelines running wind sprints with some other recuperating players then stretching the rest of the day. It didn’t look good and I really do wonder why Dorsey signed him for big money to begin with.

          Oh well. He’s the best the Chiefs have… for now. So, unless something major happens with Bowe… looks like we’re stuck with him for now.

          • http://batman-news.com Mark Lynch

            You’re right. GMs don’t admit mistakes. But in the end, they probably don’t have to; if the mistake is big enough – and the team loses – the mistake costs them their job. Just ask Pioli who signed Cassel to an equally ridiculous contract.
            If KC takes a step backward (a very real possibility with a much tougher schedule) – and Bowe puts up numbers like this past year, KC has to cut their losses and move on. Bowe’s production vs. salary will be the elephant in the room, and Dorsey will have no choice but to deal with it..his job depends on it. Better to cut your losses than ride a massive blunder into the ground.
            Frankly, I’m tired of justifying Bowe spot on this team with the tallest midget argument: “Oh well. He’s the best the Chiefs have.” Absolutely true! – but how long can you keep saying that about your #1 WR when you AREN’T winning in a league that is predominantly pass oriented???
            You’re right – all KC – and specifically Dorsey – can do now is HOPE Bowe turns it around. Cassel was a convenient scapegoat for Bowe; ignore the warts and drops and blame the QB, blame the HC, blame the OC. But Alex Smith isn’t Matt Cassel and Andy Reid isn’t Haley – so that same excuse for his chronic under-achievement will probably not fly, at least not with fans who have an IQ higher than a house plant.

      • KCMikeG

        I would definitely NOT given him a $56M contract for all of the reasons Mark mentioned plus showing up heavy and out of shape AFTER getting his long term big contract. That did it for me. I hope he shows up in shape this year and at least produces enough to garner some trade interest. The personal trainer and chef traveling with him better help. Otherwise we would probably have to keep him for another year to reduce the cap hit “dead money” to a palatable amount of $6M which is still saving us $7M of his $13M total. It would be wonderful if he came in and played like the top #3 WR we are paying him to be but I have my doubts.

    • Dave Cuttell

      I agree. Bowe is massively overrated. Its frustrating that desperation has been the only reason for the Chiefs to keep him around. I would love to see the team pull off some sort of trade for a legitimate pass catcher. You know, a guy known for his hands…unlike
      Bowe and Avery

  • Lyle Graversen

    I’m torn, on one hand I think: “Reid clearly doesn’t feel the need to load up at WR, he must feel that his system combined with a QB he trusts to facilitate it is all he needs.” Then on the other hand I think: “Well they did make a serious run at Emanuel Sanders, so obviously they saw some need at the position.” I think if a combination of DAT and Dressler replace Dex’s passing game contributions, AJ Jenkins can take some of Avery’s playing time, and Kelce can become a key contributor, we’ll be fine.

  • Stan Colbert

    The WCO has always been one that used short to intermediate passes with huge YAC! The two biggest keys are the QB delivering the ball in a location where the receiver can catch in stride to continue and get YAC! The second is the receiver has to have ability to catch the ball. The second year will help timing, if Alex gets them the ball and they catch we be ok

  • Kisersosay

    Lyle, Catch rate vs targets is not the ideal way to measure a receiver. Other factors go into the stat that are not necessarily the receivers fault. I think a better way of looking at it is by way of the drop rate. In this stat a drop is recorded if a receiver gets his hand on a ball but does not catch it. Even this stat is not always the receivers fault but everyone gets measured the same. Avery gets a bad rap for his drops last year but he was far from the worst on the team. Avery had a drop rate of 6.9% which is not a great number however here are the numbers for the rest of the team in comparison.

    The Bad
    Fasono 12.1%
    Charles 7.7%
    Jenkins 11.8%
    Gray 10.0%
    Avery 6.9%
    Davis 6.7%

    The Good
    McGrath 2.5%
    McCluster 3.6%
    Bowe 3.9%
    Sherman 4.2%
    Hemmingway 5.3%

    Now here are the drop rates for some of the “Name” receivers last year to put this in perspective overall.

    Brandon Marshall 7.3%
    Wes Welker 9.0%
    Stevie Johnson 6.9%
    Santana Moss 9.0%
    Tavon Austin 10.1%
    Hewward Bey 9.4%
    Santonio Holmes 6.8%
    Reggie Wayne 6.9%
    Dallas Clark 7.7%
    Miles Austin 8.2%
    Maro Manningham 8.7%

    So Avery’s drop rate is too high but not any higher than many other starting caliber wide receivers in the NFL. Hopefully the whole team can improve in this area this year. And when they do …watch out.

    • ladner morse

      Here’s more on the reasons why I wrote what I wrote on Donnie Avery. This is from Pro Football Focus who grades a player on every play “plus” or “minus” and Avery came out at negative (-) 8.8. Here’s what PFF had to say as they listed Avery under a section they called “Potential Cap Casualties”

      “Wide receiver, Donnie Avery is another candidate to be released. His release would only create about $1.3 million in space, but Avery was a non-factor in 2013 and is most likely going to be replaced anyway. His -8.8 overall grade ranked 105th out of 111 graded wide receivers, surely the Chiefs are seeking an upgrade.”

      https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/07/2014-team-needs-kansas-city-chiefs-2/

      I started the off-season placing Avery on par with Dunta Robinson as far as how bad they hurt the Chiefs last year. He should have been dealt with this off season… and you would have thought they would have done something by now if they were going to do it… so probably it’s not going to happen. However the reason it doesn’t is because it doesn’t really help the cap much… or Reid’s ego… who believes he can fix everyone. It’s not bad to go around believing in your players… as long as it really does work.

      Should have cut Avery in January.

      • Kisersosay

        Yea I am not a fan of Avery just pointing out the Drops are not as bad in comparison as some would think. I could see Jenkins or Hemmingway taking some his snaps this year if they can step up. He may still be a June 1 cut but I doubt it. His dead money would reduce from $2m to $1.5m and we would gain $1.35 in cap space vs. only $850 before June 1. Could be we sign a vet cap causualty and he goes then. Otherwise I think he is here till next year.

    • KCMikeG

      Catch rate vs. targets is an excellent way to measure WR performance when you have an accurate QB like we do in AS11 (over 60% five years in a row). It reflects the catchable balls that the WR doesn’t touch. Yes, Bowe had a low drop rate last year but he also has the 9th WORST drop rate of 11.56% over the three previous years 2010-2012.

      • Kisersosay

        This is true but I wonder how many passes were defended and knocked away by the DB. That would impact the catch rate especially if you have a bunch of receivers that can’t get open. I wonder if there is a stat that shows how many passes were defended against a certain receiver. I know that is a stat for DB’s but it would be interesting to see a stat like that to measure the receivers ability to get open.

        • KCMikeG

          It is truly hard to evaluate a WR with so many variables in play. The accuracy of the QB, the focus of the offensive system on run vs pass, the quality of the DB’s they faced, how often were they the victim of pass interference (this really needs to be studied & factored into a WR stats – if for nothing else Fantasy Football! Nothing sucks more than a WR about to make a long TD reception only to get yanked down by a burnt DB), the efficiency of the OL giving the QB time to throw, the catches/yards/TD’s called back due to the OL holding, the other receivers running the right routes, did the receiver run the right route & time their break correctly – I could go on and on. Interesting point on the DB break ups which could be attributed to the DB making a great play or was it the WR who didn’t hold position on his route allow the DB to slip in front of him. While Bowe’s drops decreased last year this is the area that drew my anger. Seemed to me he wasn’t anywhere near as physical as he can and should be allowing DB’s access to balls they should have had no shot at or would have had to interfere with the him to stop the play,

    • micah stephenson

      Dude are you out yo cotton picken mind? You can’t post anything that might make them realize that the wrs ain’t as bad as they say they are. You can only post stuff that states Ass11 is the greatest and any offensive problems are everyone else’s fualt but Ass11. Cmon, get together and follow AA’s house rules please.

      • Kisersosay

        My sincere apologies sir…..I will try to keep that in mind next time. (:

        • micah stephenson

          Lol. You lucky they didn’t jump all over you for that. ;-)

  • Josh Landers

    What happens if Harris goes ham in the preseason? Do we trade Fasano or McGrath? Do we keep 4 te’s on the final 53? If we only keep 3 and Harris turns our to be a stud, I’d love to see McGrath stick around. He is extremely reliable, if not a big threat. I’m interested to see how this pans out.

    • ladner morse

      I’d love it if Harris balls out. Then… next year… we keep Harris Kelce and McGrath. Then our TEs would be something to be feared.

    • berttheclock

      He has that rare ability to block. Many of the new Pretty Boy TEs only like to get open and catch passes.

  • Stacy D. Smith

    I expect Bowe to get back to form. He’s the kind of receiver that needs a quarterback to trust he’ll come away with a throw into a tight window. Those are the kind of throws Smith isn’t very fond of. I think the two came to a nice agreement at the end of the season. I expect them to hook up early and often in 2014.

    Put Avery’s ass on Juggs duty all offseason. If he can hang on to the football, he can give you low WR2 numbers. The big question is replacing McCluster’s numbers, but that could come from a healthy tight end.

    It’d be great for Jenkins to have his coming out party this year. If he can produce, Avery can go in the slot, and then you have a pretty good trio of wide receivers.

  • Calchiefsfan

    Reid wants Smith to throw it down field more. We read multiple stories on that in training camp. The problem is that is not Smith’s comfort zone. Reid will continue to push him. That is the one big area where Smith needs to grow and take more chances. I believe we’ll see more long throws this year. How much more I think really depends on how quickly and if the O line comes together. If Smith doesn’t have the time he’ll continue to be forced to dump it off.

  • KCMikeG

    Mark my words – Hemingway will be a big contributor this year. He catches most everything thrown to him – 80% and is tough guy between the hash marks.

  • Roger Mihalko

    Surgent, DarrylWRACT6’0″1955/13/19920Louisiana-LafayetteWilson, AlbertWRACT5’9″2007/12/19920Georgia State82Bowe, DwayneWRACT6’2″2219/21/19848LSUDressler, WestonWRACT5’8″1796/14/19850North DakotaWilliams, FredWRACT6’0″1954/15/19880St. Cloud State19Williams, KyleWRACT5’10″1867/19/19885Arizona State85Hammond, FrankieWRACT6’1″1842/17/19901Florida88Hemingway, JuniorWRACT6’1″22512/27/19882Michigan15Jenkins, A.J.WRACT6’0″2009/30/19893Illinois17Avery, DonnieWRACT5’11″2006/12/19847Houston

    80 Fasano, Anthony TE ACT 6’4″ 255 4/20/1984 9 Notre Dame
    81 Gordon, Richard TE ACT 6’4″ 268 6/7/1987 4 Miami (Fla.)
    47 Harris, Demetrius TE ACT 6’7″ 230 7/29/1991 1 Wis.-Milwaukee
    87 Kelce, Travis TE ACT 6’5″ 260 10/5/1989 2 Cincinnati
    84 McGrath, Sean TE ACT 6’5″ 247 12/3/1987 2 Henderson State