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The Odds On Ten Positions The Chiefs Could Take In The First Round

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1 Feature From The Bleachers

Much is being made of the Chiefs first round selection. Mock drafts abound with WR Brandon Cooks or CB Darqueze Dennard or FS Calvin Pryor becoming the Chiefs first round pick.

Wide Receiver, cornerback and free safety… are obvious positions of need for the Chiefs. However, how likely are the Chiefs to take  a top prospect at one position over another?

So, let’s take a look at the top 10 positions the Chiefs could take in the first round and rank those positions from least likely to most.

Slide0110. Long Snapper

That’s a joke of course. However, there’s a point to be made here. John Dorsey has chanted religiously, “best player available” but if the best player in the seventh round was a long snapper would Dorsey take him instead of going for a position of need? At some point, the maxim becomes ludicrous because the best LS in history should never be taken over any player who has a chance to make an impact throughout a game.

That raises an essential question: would a position like Guard be devalued, even if the best Guard in the world was available in the first round, and another position like OLB be taken… even though the OLB was not ranked among highest of OLBs?

I would hope so.

If you didn’t read Ben Nielsen’s piece called, “Where Guards Come From” he shines a bright light on the facts about most successful Guards in the league coming from the mid to later rounds and many were even undrafted.

In other words, no prospect is taken in a vaccuum. Every single one is taken with the full knowledge of what the team needs are. However, this post is not focusing on the “needs” as much as it is the “best players” available at the time the Chiefs will be drafting with the 23rd pick.

Odds the Chiefs will select a Long Snapper in the first round: 0%

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  • berttheclock

    Great way to begin your thread with long snapper. Of course, there is zero chance, but, what if there is a perceived need by the offensive line coaches that the Chiefs need a backup long snapper for whatever reason and there happens to be a DE who can long snap out there who has been rated 28th out of 80 by one scouting service, while, another suggests he should be a late 6th rounder. Imagine the uproar from the fans, if Dorsey thought he might lose him and took as our only fourth round pick,. In 2004, King Carl did just that and “wasted” a 4th round pick on a long snapper, who, surprised all in training camp that he had a bit of skill at rushing the passer. Wonder what ever happened to Jared Allen.

    That said, while, I would love to see Cooks or Beckham Bend it with the Chiefs, I still believe defense trumps offense overall and a team must build for playing in the championships where defense prevails. Offense can set all sorts of meaningless records in the regular season, but, defense wins the Lombardi Trophy. So, strengthen the defense by upgrading, either, safety or corner back in the first round.

    • ladner morse

      bert, I pray you have grandkids for whom you can embellish a good bedtime story now and again.

      • freshmeat62

        Great isn’t he. And for a computer he seems so human at times.

  • Lyle Graversen

    I think I’d go:

    WR 25%
    DL 20%
    OL 20%
    FS 15%
    CB 6%
    TE 5%
    OLB 4%
    QB 3%
    ILB 2%

    Reid and Dorsey have a track record of building in the trenches with first round picks. I really have a hard time seeing them use a first round pick on a TE or a CB. If they go away from the trenches I think it will be for a WR since their are some special players at that position and it is a clear need.

    • ladner morse

      20% DL? 20% OL? I’, wondering if you are “hoping” that’s the case or if you “think” that’s the case? That has been part of the internal battle for me in writing this piece.

      With the DL as an example: would R&D go with Dee Ford or RaShede Hageman over Odell Beckham or Brandon Cooks or Darqueze Dennard or Mike Evans or a number of other players who “I think” they would rank higher. Notice I didn’t say “know” because none of us does “know” what R&D are thinking. We can go by past behavior and I’d agree that for the most part these two like to take OL and DL early. Don’t forget Aaron Rodgers and Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Freddy Mitchell and Lito Sheppard. But… you’re right the history books show the Packers and the Eagles of the past ten years decidedly take OL and DL… I just am not sure that this year… the best talents… are playing those positions.

      On the other hand… that may be the very reason they go with OL or DL early… because good WRs and CBs can be had later in the draft but he really good OL and DL dry up early on.

      • Lyle Graversen

        Like I said, I think WR may be the only position they’d go away from their “formula” for. I absolutely think they would take a Ra’Shede Hageman or Stephon Tuitt over someone like Dennard or a TE like Amaro. There are only so many 6’5″/6’6″ human being on this Earth that are big and strong enough to stop the run and freakishly athletic enough to put pressure on the QB. You only get those type of guys early in the draft.

        I may even have a post hitting AA on Monday detailing why fans should be expecting a DL selection in the first round. (Shameless Plug)

        • ladner morse

          How I adore Shameless Plugs!!!!!

          • jimfromkcj

            Guys, most of the positions you have listed the chiefs have already addressed in FA. The position where they are really thin is OG. We lost Swartz, Asamoah and Allen was about the worst OG in the league last ear according to PFF. So it would behoove the chiefs to shore up the OL to protect Smith and give the receivers time to run routes and open some holes for the run game. I am still pulling for Gabe Jackson at 23. He is a 4 yr starter at OG and never allowed a sack the last 2 years. That is pretty impressive credentials for me.

          • ladner morse

            Gabe Jackson is an excellent interior lineman but I don’t know of any service that ranks him in the top 50.

            Part of the point of this particular post was to focus only on “best player available” so looking at the interior of the Chiefs OL, while I agree it needs to be addressed, may not be addressed until later rounds because there are so many players at so many other positions who who are better than any OG out there (including Xavier Su’a-Filo).

            By repeating the process of creating mock drafts I’ve come to notice certain undeniable patterns and the most surprising of those includes the laundry list of top notch players at many different positions which makes the pick at number 23 problematic… in a good way. I was simply attempting to point out all of the many wonderful choices.

            In any event… the Chiefs should get a great player at #23… and I hope they also get a really good OG later in the draft (who may be converted from OT to OG).

  • berttheclock

    The last 3 drafts of Andy Reid at Philly had him taking a DT, Guard who ended up being a bust and a DE (7 pro bowl players taken after that pick).

    Last 3 involving Dorsey at GB were LB, OT and OT.

  • ChiefPhil34

    I can’t help but notice that in the mock draft you have provided in this post, that Johnny Football is still available at pick #23 and you mention that he is the most ready day 1 starter of the QB prospects in this draft, yet didn’t want to select him with the Chiefs 23rd overall pick. I agree with you that the 23rd pick should be made in the defensive backfield but only if it is Clinton-Dix, Pryor, Dennard or Gilbert. If by some miracle Aaron Donald or Johnny Football were available at 23 would you frown if R & D put one of there names down on the card?

    • ladner morse

      No… in fact I’d be ecstatic if the Chiefs came away with Mr. Football or Aaron Donald. I’d be equally shocked that either one was there for the taking though.

      If the choice was Mr. Football though, I would have some disappointment as well. Allow me to explain.

      Two years ago the Greek God of Pigskins smiled upon the city of Indianapolis. Their all-time great QB went ill, the team couldn’t squeak out a victory and the first pick in the draft belonged to them. But… lo and behold… that very same year the best QB in 15 years happened to be available for the first pick in the draft.

      When the best player available happens to line up with your greatest need… that’s serendipity.

      If the Chiefs take Manziel and have to sit him for two years… that’s unfortunate. Now… if Aaron Donald fell in their laps… that would be closer to serendipity because the Chiefs need to improve their pass rush and Donald will help which ever team selects him immediately.

      • micah stephenson

        No matter when you get a QB, you have to develope him. Why not draft a guy and get the sitting a yr and or developing part out the way?

  • Josh Landers

    I noticed van noy wasn’t on the list of olb’s. I don’t know much about him except that during the season he was projected to go top 20 and now no one is talking about him. I watched a highlight video and a game video and it seems that the kid is a baller. I wonder if olb should be more like 10%.,.?

    And one more thing, what do you make of Cody lattimer being mocked to us in the 1st? I watched some game tape on him, too. To me, he actually seemed to have all of the right characteristics to go in the first. Good route runner, good hands, good burst, etc… Is there a possibility of us grabbing him?

    • berttheclock

      If I remember correctly, Van Noy was on the list of visits by the Chiefs. Reid does have a soft spot for those Provo guys. Lattimer would be a great fit if he could fall far enough in the draft. However, I see him more and more on lists. I hope he gets lost in the scramble for wide outs.

    • ladner morse

      Nan Noy has a 4.71 40 time weighing him down at this point.
      He is one heck of a LB but that time is probably going to push him to the 2nd or even 3rd.

      About Latimer… he’s moving up the charts but we never know how the Chiefs brass and staff have ranked all player from top to bottom. I’ve seen Latimer available in the 4th too… so. you never know. However, there are so many WRs out there that is the Chiefs were going to take on in the first round… I’m projecting that it won’t be Latimer.

  • Kody Latham

    I really really hope we don’t go wr in the first round it is the deepest position of the draft and I really feel like our linebacker core needs more depth/ future pro bowl players we only have probably one more year with Hali and two more years with Derrick Johnson we need to start drafting their replacements now instead of scrambling to do it once they have been cut or retire

    • ladner morse

      Yep… it’s the law of supply and demand argument which is getting some traction……. since the Chiefs could get some very good WRs later in the draft… the WRs early in the draft are worth less compared to… what else the Chiefs could get early (ILB or DT or OT) plus a WR later.

  • Stan Colbert

    I would say the chances Chiefs take WR are pretty good based on the talent level and quantity available. I also think one of these top picks you mention is going to fall to #23. I would love to see Dorsey with a basket just waiting to catch a Dix or Ford, Martin, Dennard, Mosely, or another team who wants to trade up. I certainly wouldn’t reach back for a Yancey or Latimer.

    • ladner morse

      Yea… I think Latimer can be had in the third… however I’ve noticed him climbing up the charts.

      • Stan Colbert

        I proobably didn’t spell his name right, the WR from Indiana mocked to KC by ESPN’s Mc Shay last week.

  • KCMikeG

    Why would we pick any WR besides Beckham? He is as good as a WR as any and a better, more experienced PR & KR. We get the best #2 (soon to be promoted to #1 if Bowe doesn’t get his act together) and he replaces DMC & Demps on ST’s so he is like getting three players with one pick!

    • ladner morse

      Maybe that’s what we’ll nickname him if he becomes a Chief… “The 3 in 1″

      • KCMikeG

        3FER! Nobody has #3 on our roster which just so happens to be his jersey # at LSU!

  • Chris Tarrants

    How do you sleep at night Laddie? I have never seen such racism!!! All of that typing that you did and not even the slightest mention of a kicker or punter? Huh? C’mon on man, it’s far fetched but hey out good buddy Al Davis pulled that trigger. Although I’m pretty sure that was the start of his dementia. In all seriousness though, I haven’t felt this excited about a draft since we drafted Berry! We sit in a good spot, we only need a little help in each aspect of the game. Another WR or lineman and Smith gets better, a corner or safety will both open up possibilities with our secondary versatility. A d lineman or good LB will take pressure off of Poe, Hali, and Houston! It’s not a can’t miss spot at 23 but Dorsey would really have to pull the perfect Pioli in order to screw this one up

  • micah stephenson

    Shouldn’t chiefs draft a QB FIRST rd b absolutely 100% ZERO Chance of ever happening?

  • e_racer

    Forget need. Take the best guy available. If Bridgewater is still available after Tennessee picks, he may very well be available when the Chiefs come to the stadium at 23. There is your QBOTF.

    When you are sitting at 23, and there are soooo many needs, anything can happen. However, the most important thing to happen is to find a game changer who will be there in four or five years.