The Kansas City Chiefs, The 2014 NFL Draft, & Trading Down


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With the 2014 NFL Combine coming to a close today and the first official pro days less than two weeks away, draft fever has officially hit. We’re beginning to get a clearer picture of what players might be available at 23 for the Kansas City Chiefs. Safety talent at the top of the draft is scarce. Wide receiver might be the deepest position group in this draft class. This isn’t the best time for the Chiefs to be without their second-round pick (surrendered to San Francisco as compensation for Alex Smith).

I don’t have 22 years of front office experience like general manager John Dorsey, but I think Kansas City should consider trading back to obtain additional picks. Having limited salary cap resources is one such reason. A cap increase to the $132 million dollar range is expected, but the Chiefs have a quarterback to extend and two or three players to re-sign. A top heavy draft at key positions like free safety, where Kansas City has a need, is another. Given the first-round talent likely to be available over the bottom-third of the round, there could be interest in the 23rd overall pick.

The Chiefs need two or three players to come in from this draft class and contribute right away. Dorsey improves his chances of that happening by having access to as many NFL-ready prospects as possible. Over the past several years, Kansas City’s gotten the biggest year one contributions from players drafted in the top three rounds. As of right now, the team only figures to snare 2 of the top 100 players in the draft (23rd and 87th overall).

John Dorsey

The last time the franchise traded back in the opening round was in 2011. The Chiefs originally had the 21st overall pick. They swapped spots with the Cleveland Browns and eventually took Jon Baldwin with the 26th overall pick. The trade netted them the 70th overall pick and two-time Pro Bowler Justin Houston. A move to, say, 28th or 29th overall would secure another late third-round draft pick for Kansas City.

According to the draft value chart, the 23rd overall pick is worth 760 points. In the event that Kansas City swung a draft day trade with New England (sitting at 29th overall), they would receive the Pats’ round one selection worth 640 points plus their round three choice (93rd overall) worth 125 points. The Chiefs would then own the 23rd, 87th, and 93rd overall picks.

Here are notable R3 players the Chiefs might consider drafting:

  1. Donte Moncrief, WR, Mississippi
  2. Marcus Smith, DE/OLB, Louisville
  3. Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Georgia Tech
  4. Keith McGill, CB, Utah
  5. Chris Smith, DE/OLB, Arkansas
  6. Demarcus Lawrence, DE/OLB, Boise State
  7. Marcus Roberson, CB, Florida
  8. C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Iowa
  9. Dion Bailey, S, Southern California
  10. Yawin Smallwood, ILB, Connecticut

Let’s say the Chiefs made the aforementioned trade and took DE Stephon Tuitt (Notre Dame) with the 29th overall pick. It’s possible they’d also come away with two players from the list above. That’s an early-draft haul of three players who could all compete for either a starting role or significant playing time in their rookie campaigns.

Reid

Here’s what head coach Andy Reid had to say about free agency in a Combine presser last week:

I’m not a big free agency guy. It wasn’t our M.O. (in Philadelphia). My thought on that hasn’t changed. I’m lucky enough to be with John. That’s his feeling. I think you kind of plug things here or there, but if you think you’re going to make a team out of free agency, I don’t think that necessarily works.

If the front office is going to toe that line Reid’s partner-in-crime (John Dorsey) needs to take a trade into strong consideration on draft day. Unlike last year, he’ll have ample time to work the phones. Kansas City won’t go on the clock until about 10:30pm (Arrowhead Time). Depending on how the first 22 picks fall Dorsey may even get a few inbound calls.

What say you, Addicts? Should John Dorsey trade back and add more picks or stand pat at 23? Will the Chiefs potentially miss out on a starting-caliber player if the move down five or six spots on the draft board? Are there players on the roster who might also help sweeten a draft day trade deal? Use the comment section below to chime in on the topic. As always, we appreciate your readership and support.

Until next time, Addicts!

 

 

 

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  • Tristian

    I think the chiefs have to trade back because there are some needs u cant afford ro not plug. Because of Reids ability to call plays effectively for instance we can get away with minimal improvement from the WRs. We can’t have bad safety play again. We also cant not have depth behind Hali and Houston again. The offensive line is somewhere we cant take a step backwards from either. You can’t fill all your needs in one draft and I know that pretty well. So I say trade back if you can but if not make this draft about Defense. You’ve got an elite offensive head coach. But defense is why we will or will not get where we wanna go this upcoming season.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      I tend to agree. OLB depth was definitely on my mind this week. It’s time to start backfilling that spot. The Chiefs’ two biggest priorities are wide receiver and safety. In taking a look at the visits they had with combine players last week, those are the positions where they saw the most players. The front office seems to agree with me.

  • jesse

    I say trade flowers for like a second round pick. Then trade back maybe twice, out of the first and into the second. Then we will have at least 2 second round picks and a couple other mid round picks.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      I’d be shocked if we could trade him for an R2 pick. I’d expect something more like a third or fourth-round pick. If we can move him though, I’d be all for that. He’s not a press corner.

      • Richard A. Izzo

        I could see this happening with the Browns, but only if it’s something like trading our 23rd pick + Flowers for their 26th and 71st picks. Might be a bit bit pricey, but a Haden-Flowers cornerback combo might be hard to resist for a rebuilding team with solid potential in defense. And two 3rd-round picks are better than what we have right now.

        As for drafting an WR in the 1st round…I don’t know. The Chiefs have about as good a record at drafting receivers as they do drafting QBs. I’d go with more depth at linebacker or a safety to complement ERic Berry.

        • Stacy D. Smith

          I wouldn’t hesitate to draft a wide receiver. Dorsey’s not responsible for the missteps of general managers that preceded him.

  • jimbob jo

    trade down and trade flowers

    • micah stephenson

      Why trade flowers when that would only save a million or 2 and we would still have to pay him around 7.5 mill?

      • Jason Seibel

        That’s only if you cut him. If you trade him the other team picks up the tab.

        • tm1946

          Have no problem moving Flowers but I want something in return. Same can be said for almost every player on the roster, except Smith, Poe, and Houston but only because I like them.

        • Stacy D. Smith

          The unamortized portion of the signing bonus would be accelerated to the cap figure for the league year (if he’s moved before June 1). If they trade him after, only that year’s number goes on the cap number. The rest is counted the following season.

  • tm1946

    I am all for trading down but, the bottom line is, you need a partner. We have needs that cannot be filled with the current available picks, so hope they get some extras.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      You definitely need a dance partner and depending on how the first round goes, they may have a couple. Trades at the bottom of round one are fairly common.

      • tm1946

        And how many years have we said that while other teams make moves and we sit out the dance.
        Not sure how Dorsey operates, seems to me GB was not doing that much trading down for extra picks but I never followed that team. Guess we will see and if he does not, just means this year was not the year for us.

        • Stacy D. Smith

          I think he’ll do what he has to ensure the Chiefs have the best draft class possible.

        • berttheclock

          One of the best moves ever by Ted Thompson was in 2006, when, he had the 36 slot in the draft. There was a so-called hotshot wide out from Florida available and Belichick craved him. So, TT traded picks with Belichick and picked up an extra pick. I have not found, yet, what that extra pick was, but, the upshot was Belichick ended up with Chad Jackson, a bust wide out and TT picked Greg Jennings at 52. BTW, since Thompson has taken charge, he has averaged taking more players than his allotment.

          • Stacy D. Smith

            Love the Packers draft model. Always have.

  • Ryan Langsford

    Will Chiefs get an extra 3 RD Compensatory pick when Albert signs elsewhere?

    • Jason Seibel

      Next year’s draft.

      • DieHard_ChiefsFan

        But we should get a 3rd round Comp pick for Glenn Dorsey this year.

        • Jason Seibel

          Maybe a fifth at best. Dorsey didn’t do anything in SF

          • DieHard_ChiefsFan

            I thought it was based on the Draft pick order and the fact that the 49ers did make it to the NFC Championship game, even though he was not a beast this year

          • Jason Seibel

            In addition to the 32 selections in each of the seven rounds, a total of 32 compensatory picks are awarded to teams that have lost more or better compensatory free agents than they signed in the previous year.[58] Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player’s salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

            All compensatory picks are awarded at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7.

            If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as “supplemental compensatory selections”).

            Compensatory picks are awarded each year at the NFL annual meeting which is held at the end of March; typically, about three or four weeks before the draft.

          • Jason Seibel

            ^^^^
            From Wikipedia.

          • DieHard_ChiefsFan

            Great research, I thought it was based on the Pick and the Salary/EOY team standings. Thanks for the information !

          • Jason Seibel

            No problem!

        • Stacy D. Smith

          Philly.com did a piece describing the NFL’s compensatory draft pick formula. It’s a long, boring read, but it’ll help give you a (really vague) idea.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      Perhaps, but not until 2015.

  • berttheclock

    Great thread. I did not consider the Pats. One of the reasons I thought the Chiefs might be able to swing a deal with the Redskins for their 34 slot plus an additional pick later, was the Redskins are looking for defensive line help and might be able to find a better talent at 23 than at 34.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      If one of those big fish wide receivers drops, I could see them maybe moving up to snag one.

  • kcndaock

    I think trading down is the best option and I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle dances with us due to the relationship of the gm. I wouldn’t mind maybe dangling chase Daniels for a extra push on a higher pick along with trading down. Idk if I would let anyone else go this year. Flowers has earned a second yr to recover from this year horrible showing. Hali might be worth it next yr but I want to know some1 can step in right away. I think we have solid depth in several spots but will agree zombo and that other joker needs to dissapper. While we devolp we devolo someone behind hali before cutting ties with him.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      Flowers’ only problem is that we’re playing a scheme he isn’t suited for. He can still play this game. In zone coverage, he’s probably still well above average.

      • kcndaock

        Yes he’s not suited for the scheme but as a pro I’m hoping he can adjust. That’s why I believe he’s earned another year.

        • Stacy D. Smith

          He’s definitely no slouch. Just better off playing in a zone. I won’t cry in my beer if he’s still a Chief next season though.

  • Stan Colbert

    .Trading Flowers might be a good idea, based on the fact he made the pro bowl might increase his marketability. Trading down makes sense unless you are just completely sold on a guy. I think the two safetys will be gone & wr .depth seems strong enough to allow the drop. The reported depth of the draft would enhance the value and you always want more picks.

  • jesse

    Two receivers I want the Chiefs to draft: Brandin Cooks and Jeff Janis. Grab Cooks first, nab Janis later. Cooks is the speedy sure handed receiver Reid likes and Janis is a productive big AND fast receiver. Also would love either McGill or Jean Baptiste at corner. Also wouldn’t mind Shayne Skov playing next to DJ, he would help with the inside rush and he’s a firey player. I like Commings to be our free safety for the future. But could always explore free agency. Oh and I wouldn’t mind reaching on someone like Michael sam.

    • Canad-Ian

      I like everything up to Sam. He doesn’t seem like a scheme fit.

      • jesse

        Although itd take some adjusting, he is very similar in size to Houston and Sam can get after the quarterback. I say use him on special teams and obvious pass situations. Maybe subpackages with Sam, hali, Houston and catapano with their hands in the dirt just getting after the passer… That sounds pretty awesome. But just an idea, idk. I like the thought of skov next to DJ for and interior rush/leader type

    • berttheclock

      Remember one thing about Cooks is he doesn’t need as much money as he won the Addidas $100,000 prize for being the fastest 40 player who wore their new cleats.

      Yes, Skov does have a high energy motor and can hit.

  • jimbobjo

    because flowers is too slow constantly trailing recievers he is suppose to cover and there is some value to be gained rather than pay 8.5 mil to a dime back