How The Chiefs Are Winning: The Numbers That Count

SmokeSignals

It’s weird having your expectations met and your delusions proved perceptive, but that is exactly what it is like to be a Chiefs fan right now.

For (at least) the last two seasons, we have been saying that this would be a wholly different team if it had just an average-to-above-average quarterback and competent coaching. Low and behold, we were right.

The last time a team went 2-14 and started the next season 4-0 was the 1980 Detroit Lions, and it was clear what magic turned that team around. They drafted a halfback Billy Sims 1st overall that year and he took the league by storm. Sims logged nearly 2,000 offensive yards, 16 touchdowns and was a shoe-in for the Offensive Player of the Year.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs drafted an offensive tackle first overall who has been a mixed bag so far and didn’t play this week with an injury. And yet, the Chiefs made history by pulling away from their dismal 2-14 season last year to go 5-0 (and counting).

I don’t think even the most rabid of Chiefs fans would claim that this is the best team in the league, and anyone who has watched the games closely has seen plenty of stuff not to like. What is clear is that the Chiefs are finally living up to their potential and getting it done like we all knew (thought, hoped) they could.

Here’s how:

 

47-17 – That’s the Chiefs’ score against opponents in the 4th quarter. In short, the Chiefs are a team that will put you away. When heading into the quarter trailing (like this week), the team has shown the poise to take the game back. This alone is a huge improvement for the team. I can’t remember the last time I have been this impressed by the mental toughness and confidence of a Chiefs squad. The bad news? The Chiefs tend to get into major funks in the middle of games after a few strong first possessions.

59-9 – A lot of national commentators have pointed out that two of the Chiefs’ five wins came against two winless teams – Jacksonville and New York. I can’t argue with the fact that those two teams have been horrid dumpster fires so far this season, but the Chiefs beat them by a combined score of 59-9. They destroyed them, which is what good teams do to bad teams. What more do you want?

17-13 – Is Alex Smith Joe Flacco? No, that might seem obvious because they have different names and are different people. But, a lot of the naysaying commentary about the Chiefs has focused on Smith’s lack of elite arm strength and tendency to dink and dunk. I’m not disputing that, but it would be incorrect to say that the Chiefs’ passing game is one-dimensional, or that this is what is hurting them in games. The Chiefs have 17 passes of 20 or more yards so far this season while their opponents have 13. It’s also worth noting that Chiefs’ opponents have been behind most of the time, and thus are attempting more downfield passes than that Chiefs, who are usually trying to grind up clock early in the second half. A lot of those Chiefs passes have been long catch-and-run’s, but WR Donnie Avery hauled in a couple of 40+ yard catches this week that were indeed deep throws by Smith. Watching those two throws, it was obvious why Smith doesn’t turn to the deep pass often – it’s not what he is good at – but he is certainly capable of hitting receivers deep when need be.

15-3 — Although the Chiefs’ special teams haven’t been as consistently dominant in the regular season as they were in the preseason, they are still winning the Chiefs games. Sure, there’s WR Dexter McCluster’s punt-return touchdown against the Giants and CB Marcus Cooper’s fumble recovery for a touchdown on a punt this week that most people think of. But those two dramatic plays are only part of the story. This team is winning the field-position battle by leaps and bounds. So far, the Chiefs have started 15 drives in the opponent’s territory while opposing teams have only gotten the ball on the Chiefs’ side of the field three times, and never inside of the Chiefs’ 40. While much of this has been due to the defense getting turnovers anthe offense protecting the ball, much of this has to do with great overall special teams play and good game planning.

 

Will all of these trends hold for the entire season? Probably not, because statistics like turnovers tend to regress towards the mean. What they show, however, is that this is a team that is well prepared and disciplined and is finding ways to win. The Chiefs were losing badly by every one of these same indicators in 2012. The picture it shows is clear – these are the stats of team that beats the opponent, not itself.

Topics: Alex Smith, Chiefs, Jamaal Charles, Kansas City, Marcus Cooper, Numbers, Statistics, Stats, Tennessee, Titans

Want more from Arrowhead Addict?  
Subscribe to FanSided Daily for your morning fix. Enter your email and stay in the know.
  • berttheclock

    Yeah, there was a “Good News, Bad News” moment for the Titans on Sunday. It began in the early seconds of the 4th Quarter. The Good new was “You have just scored”. The bad news was “The Chiefs will now have the ball and this is really their 4th Quarter”.

  • Calchiefsfan

    Great article Nick! I especially liked the point you made about destroying the bad teams. I plan on using that a lot in future debates with the Chiefs naysayers.

  • Calchiefsfan

    By the way everyone, Happy Raiders Week! We have got to just maul them on Sunday. I demand nothing less!

  • ladner morse

    Love your work Nicholas! Why do you think the Chiefs have that “middle-of-the-game- funk?” I have been owing their positive 4th quarter performances to their superior fitness — everyone came to camp in shape this year — but I can’t figure out why they can dominate the 4th but not earlier.

    • Danny W

      I know you didn’t ask me but I’ll take a stab at it. I’m putting it on Reid mostly at this point. I think the run game is ineffective because we’re not committed to it enough for one, two I think the plays he dials up may take too long to matriculate. Hit someone on a crossing route until they stop it! Third some has to be put on Smith. Not all can be shouldered by Reid, Smith has to execute. I think we improve but we need to do it soon, the Texans are coming up soon and their defense is a world better than the Titans defense. Maybe even better than ours.

  • Danny W

    Yeah I think this ball club is well prepared but I think they lack a little discipline with the false start penalties. I think Reid will get that sorted out though. I don’t see the Chiefs losing fifty yards every game this year to false starts. I hope not anyway. I think for some reason our absolute biggest weakness is on offense is on third down. I’m not sure if it’s comfort in the system that Smith has a problem with or nerves in general if you know tell me what it is?
    I’m not saying Smith is bad or not clutch but our third down’s just plain suck! I mean one conversion in a game and I’m coming unglued if I’m coach. That’s unacceptable for a playoff team, which at this point I believe this team very much is expected to be. It’s five game’s passed time to fix the third down problem. Trick plays? I don’t know go all Al Saunders on a third down, who cares about west coast all the time? Good read though NAC I like those stats and I think we improve.

  • Davé

    Think we could trade for Tony G? That Atlanta team is going nowhere and they could really use a running back. We could trade Davis and a 4th round pick and immediately upgrade our TE position and bring back Tony to retire a Chief. I know its just a dream……..

  • Pessimisticchiefsfan

    Alex smith is terrible. We would have the same record if Matt Cassel was our qb

    • d-block

      Hogwash.

  • Stacy D. Smith

    Excellent work, Clayton!

12 hours ago

AA Sunday Review: Can The Draft Be Here Now Please?

23 hours ago

2014 NFL Draft Secondary Selection

1 day ago

Rethinking The 2010 NFL Draft: Javier Arenas