Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

2013 Chiefs DVOA Analysis: Week 1

AA - Double Take

For those of you still relatively new to Arrowhead Addict, each week during the regular season, I present a somewhat in depth, statistical snapshot of how the Chiefs are doing in key areas. My resource for all this is Football Outsiders.  Week 1 DVOA stats are not terribly meaningful because there’s just no substantive history to do the analysis. Still, I do feel it’s worth stating here at the outset that just last week FO projected, based on preseason play, that the 2013 Chiefs would not be very good in the key areas analyzed. If nothing else, we should use FO’s preseason projection as sort of a baseline until we get a few more into the season.

Let’s start with the good. Special Teams were projected at 5th in the league and Strength of Schedule was 27th. Those are least promising aspects for this team considering last season’s performance.

Now for the not so great. Total Team DVOA was projected as 29th, Offensive DVOA was 21st, and Defensive DVOA claimed the 32nd spot. Mean Wins were projected to be 6.8.

Next, onto to the regular season tabulated results following Week 1.

2013 Week 1

Again, bearing in mind this is Week 1, that raw VOA percentage put up by the team defense was pretty jaw-dropping regardless of who the Chiefs were playing. Considering FO rated the Chiefs defense dead last coming into the regular season, this represents a dramatic transformation and I would say even an insight into just how great, potentially this defense might be. It’s a bit premature to say the Chiefs are the best defense in the league, but by the same token, it’s not unrealistic to say that this could very well be the kind of defense that far exceeds  all expectations when all is said and done.

Here’s a further break down of the Week 1 Defensive and Offensive performances:

2013 Week 1 O&D

All of these scores are encouraging signs but clearly the Chiefs Pass Defense totally dominated.

As for individual Offensive positional performances, there’s some good and some not so good as seen below.

2013 Week 1 Positional

Big picture, it is safe to say that the Chiefs backfield was the most important contributing element on offense and perhaps that’s as it should be when one is sitting on a 3 touchdown lead. On the other hand, not a single receiver, including TE’s, on the squad is ranked among the top 32 players at their position as far as DYAR or DVOA are concerned.

It is easy to say that the Chiefs experienced road success in Week 1 because Jacksonville does not appear to be a very good team at this stage. On the other hand, this is the NFL where no victories are assured and the Chiefs did exactly what most NFL teams prefer to do on the road – play tough defense and run the ball well. Check and check.

This coming week will be different. The Chiefs will enjoy home field advantage but the Cowboys, on paper, appear to be a better team than the Jags. “Better” in this case is de facto relative because the Jags are, right now, the worst team in the NFL by most statistical measures.

The Cowboys appear, even with a home win in Week 1 appear, so far, to be a below average team. The key to offensive success for the Chiefs will most likely not be through running the ball, which the Cowboys defend pretty well, but rather, for Alex Smith to get the ball into the hands of Chiefs receivers and for the Chiefs receivers to hang onto the ball. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense mostly needs to keep doing what they’re doing.

That’s my 2013 Week 1 Double Take! What’s your take, Addicts?

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Tags: DVOA Analysis Kansas City Chiefs 2013

  • chiefridgy

    I definitely think we have to pass some this game. We need to see the Bowe Show and our tight ends need to catch the ball (crucial).

  • Lyle Graversen

    Great to have this back DD! I’m always curious to see how the numbers compare to the eye test impressions. If the defense, special teams, and run game are all good and the passing game can at least be average, I think this could be a good season.

    • Merlin_Arrowhead_Addict

      It is interesting. My perception of the game was that the Chiefs did very well in run defense. The numbers don’t quite reflect that.

      • berttheclock

        That is only due to having the one game for comparisons. The Chiefs were 12th in run defense for the 1st week, giving up 71 yards. However, Cleveland only gave up 20 and Miami 41, which skews the list. But, look at the Seahawks who are known for their outstanding defensive unit. They ended up in the lowest tier by giving up many yards to the Panthers. BTW, the Cowboys gave up 50.

        • Chief Hokie

          True, the numbers are all relative to the rankings. If there are 31 Peyton Mannings in the league and 1 Matt Ryan, does that make Matt Ryan the worst QB? Yes. Does that mean he’s a bad QB? Not at all.

    • DoubleD

      I agree and thanks for the warm welcome!

  • Joe Myers

    I think ried will keep it balanced in the first half . Turn it up in the second half and go a little pass happy . I expect them to look left then go to bowe on the first pass .Field position is what’s going to play key in this game !!!!!

    • Chris Tarrants

      I see the first play being a straight up go route to Avery! Catch or no catch it will take the top off the defense and also send the message that we can throw long when we have to

      • Joe Myers

        Ok we shall see !!! Anyway it goes I see this as a statement game !!!! Its going loud

      • Calchiefsfan

        If Fasano catches that perfectly thrown ball on the first play of last week then the talk about Smith can’t go long might have been muzzled for a while.

  • Dadpole550

    I see rivers loft that ball to receivers and let them make the play I wanna see that in kc with recievers like Donnie Ave and d bowe sheet even Mccluster its all about timing with ur receiver I guess.. our KC Defense is special I think…our home opener will be the proof….idk who can handle Houston 1 on 1 double Poe or Tamba? lol….Look forward to this home opener pls!!! It’s gonna be fun for us!!!! Go Chiefs!!!!

  • sidibeke

    Bring on the ‘boys.

  • Chris Tarrants

    I have a feeling deep in my gut that Eric Fisher had some butterflies last week and for the most part held his own. I have a feeling that he will be the big bruiser that he was drafted to be this week and Charles is going to run rough shot on Dallas. They may have a good run defense but we have a great back and he is due for one of his patented rediculis monster games. Then the league will take notice, oh touch defense and killer running offense with a good qb/great game manager who protects the football and then those talking heads will realize that Romeo is gone and this isn’t the 2012 powderpuff chiefs!

    • Chris Tarrants

      Tough defense* I hate auto correct with a passion!

      • berttheclock

        Hey, their usage of the edit function has saved me very often as I have a tendency to speed type and hit post much too quickly. I wish other sites would adopt the edit function.

        • Michael Shaw

          Yeah but sometimes it still makes for some interesting reading.

  • Stacy D. Smith

    Kansas City’s defense will need another good showing on Sunday. Dallas has weapons. The more pressure they can put on Romo, the better off they’ll be.

    • berttheclock

      Let there not be another type of Miles Austin coming out party.
      However, as much as I enjoyed reading Double D’s fine analysis pickup, I had really expected to read more of Micah trying to explain Geno’s 4 QBR rating in the 4th quarter. I wondered if he would only discuss the 91 QBR from the 3rd quarter.

      • berttheclock

        Speaking about that 2009 October day when Austin exploded against the Chiefs. His first major catch was against Carr. HIs TD in OT which won the game came when he took the ball away from Carr and took off.

        • Michael Shaw

          Yeah, I wonder how well Bowe can do against Carr and the second year guy for Dallas? I don’t think Austin does that against Flowers and Smith and co….

          • Calchiefsfan

            I’m expecting to see a lot of pressure on Romo. That should squelch any more coming out parties except for maybe Poe’s.

  • Tony Parker

    Chiefs win this one 20 – 13. provided that smith can connect on some longer passes and keep the dallas D from crowding the box. the question is, will he have time for the longer passes? TE & slots could see a lot of targets. GO CHIEFS, I BELIEVE!

  • berttheclock

    I would love to see Sean McGrath have a breakout game. He could end up being the best late acquisition made by Dorsey. Seattle may have out smarted themselves in thinking they could slip him past waivers.
    In HS, he played the “Mike” position as MLB and he loved to pancake opponents. At Henderson State, he caught 56 passes. Fast, tough as he is a very fine blocker, and smart enough to find holes in the secondary, he could become the “steal” of the waiver wire. In addition, he can, also, be a backup long snapper. Strange about Seattle, it looks as though they let two fine players get away from them. McGrath and Chris Harper. Both the Chiefs and the Niners have gained.

  • Michael Shaw

    Hey, on a non-related note, can anyone get a hold of Adam Best and find out if he still thinks Sanchez should have been our pick when we took Dorsey???

    • Chief Hokie

      Haha or when Andrew Crocker thought we should’ve taken Jimmy Clausen? Or when DD thought we should’ve fired Todd Haley and hired Jeff Fisher….err maybe that would have been a good idea.

      • Michael Shaw

        LOL!! Yeah, Fisher would have been good in place of Romeo.

  • Calchiefsfan

    Great to see you back DD. It will be interesting to see how these numbers compare to the numbers we put up against Dallas. I’m hoping that the offense and Smith open it up a bit against Dallas’s Tampa 2. We need to get Bowe and McCluster more involved, as your article shows. As far as the D goes I’m thinking it all comes down to their o line vs. our d line and I like those odds. If we can keep pressure on Romo then we should limit Dez and co. Special teams should continue to improve as the new guys get in sync.
    This game is a great test for the Chiefs but not the end all important game.The Chiefs are on a steep learning curve this year and should be a much better team at the end of the year than they are now. Still, they have a great opportunity this week to beat a decent team. As a matter of fact, the Chiefs should beat Dallas this week if Smith has a good game and Reid does some decent play calling.