Jun 5, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) speaks to media after the mini camp at the University of Kansas Hospital Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

How Many Wins Should Chiefs Fans Expect in 2013?


Jun 5, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) speaks to media after the mini camp at the University of Kansas Hospital Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps my favorite writer on the NFL is Bill Barnwell (and no, not just because his last name is similar to mine), who contributes a lot of statistics based articles for Grantland, recently came out with a story about if second half success/swoons effect teams the following year. While I would be doing you a disservice by trying to summarize the findings instead of letting you read the article itself, there was an interesting statistic I saw that applies to the Chiefs.

In the article, Barnwell broke down every team from 1990-2011. Of those samples, 15 teams have had the same record as the 2012 Chiefs (one of those teams being, of course, the 2008 Chiefs). Of those teams, 93.3% of the teams improved their record the following year, while the remaining 6.7% actually declined. So while the odds are drastically in the Chiefs favor to improve their overall record in 2013, what does improvement necessarily mean?

According to Barnwell’s report, teams that went 2-14 averaged 5.4 wins the next season. While 15 teams is a small sample size, it is something to look at with consideration. As hopeful as Chiefs fans are in the offseason, and as bad as the team was in 2012, is it smart to expect any more than 5 wins next year?

I will say this, not many 2-14 teams seem to conduct an arms race quite like the Chiefs did this offseason. Fans have been thinking for a few years now that the team is very close to being a perennial contender, and it seems the new regime agrees. But still, we can’t overlook how bad last season was. Even Vegas, who actually gave the Chiefs 1.5 more wins on over/under than they have ever given to a team after receiving the number one overall pick since conference realignment, is still only giving them 7. While it’s nice to see Vegas acknowledge that “the core is there,” it is still a below .500 finish that wouldn’t net the playoff berth that most Chiefs fans are either expecting or very much hoping for.

So now that you are aware of the odds and the statistics going into next season, what is your realistic expectation of wins for the Chiefs in 2013? Is a playoff berth the only form of success you are willing to accept or are you just hoping for improvement and a move back towards the .500 mark?

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  • Altarium

    I’ve been struggling with this for a while now. It’s difficult to come up with a realistic expectation, especially when you consider that our new front office/coaching staff are doing everything they can to “win now”, in addition to looking towards the future. Most of the time terrible teams have to completely rebuild for a couple years before they can even think about being competitive, because they don’t usually luck into great QBs like the colts.
    It’s a no brainer, but the catalyst for whether we are sub .500 or have a winning record and possibly wild card hopes, comes down to coaching, and QB play. If Reid makes smart coaching decisions, and Alex continues his upswing in play, I think it’s very realistic to expect a winning season and possible wild card spot. If we get plagued with injuries, have poor coaching, or Alex regresses, we’ll be better than 2-14… but we probably won’t be better than 6-10.

    • KCMikeG

      Great post. We aren’t burning it down to the ground and starting over, riding ourselves of expensive vets. We are adding the missing pieces to a poorly coached young team with promise and 6 Pro Bowlers. IF the OL gels and Reid calls it right then AS will continue his upswing and we will win our first playoff game in 20 years.

  • Justin R Groth

    7-9 wins anything over means happy Justin anything less well you know

  • Stacy D. Smith

    I’m thinking 8 or 9 wins.

    • Michael Shaw

      Really? Why?

      • Stacy D. Smith

        Better coaching and quarterback play should help us win 6-7 more games.

        • Michael Shaw

          True. I am just hoping nobody gets freaking hurt this year.

          • Suzi Conger

            Big Ditto

  • micah stephenson

    8 wins will b a great season considering we only got 1 good RB and 1 good wr with a very average QB. You stack 8 men in the box on run downs and double Bowe on passing downs. Force bum ass Alex Smith to win trying to use Baldwin and Mcluster and the Chiefs wont b able to do much.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      The defensive additions don’t count either?

      • Michael Shaw

        It doesn’t matter to him Stacy. The guy is dead set against his “favorite” team because they didn’t get someone at the QB position other than Alex Smith. He isn’t straying past that point and arguing with a stubborn lack of optimism such as his is really not worth your time, my time or anybody’s time for that matter!!!

        • Suzi Conger

          Agreed Michael, I’ve tried reasonings, common sense, Facts/stats, etc. Michah seems to prefer ‘heresay’ and rumors….

          • micah stephenson

            Show me Alex Smiths TD and yards per season again. Show me the seasons played all 16 games healthy stats agian. I know. I know. You gon go 2 the last 2 out of his 8 seasons and nit pick through the stats and point out he had a few good numbers here and thur.

          • Suzi Conger

            W-I-N-S micah…. you do know about the SF Dark Ages, don’t you??? I thought EVERYONE knew about ’05 – ’10 ….. for example, VDavis was benched, too ( Dingletary was a good coach, yes? …ha, ha )

            Naw,…. I’m gonna trust AReid, JDorsey, Chief teammates, VDavis, ARodgers, CAult (and many other professionals) opinions of ASmith BEFORE AND ABOVE yours.

            And yes, I could provide many impressive stats/facts if I chose to waste my time.

          • Michael Shaw

            No I think the guy literally just doesn’t understand the English language…………

          • micah stephenson

            Yea thank god my phone has that Martian to English translator built in.

          • Michael Shaw

            See, funny stuff!!

        • micah stephenson

          The QB is the most important position and we got a very average QB. When we get a good one ill start to b more optimistic. Hell its teams wiining with C.Ponder, Kopernick, Wilson, & other young QBs. Our team so petrified of drafting a QB they wont even attempt to do it. Just sad. Pathetic. When you wont even try.

          • Stacy D. Smith

            We get it. You’re pissed the team didn’t draft a quarterback. They did, however, get a quarterback who had a 3rd or 4th round grade. They did that in addition to trading for Alex Smith. You’re STILL unhappy. I’m starting to think you’ll be unhappy with anything the team does.

          • Michael Shaw

            No what is pathetic is that you don’t realize that we got a good undrafted QB in Tyler Bray. While I will agree with you that it seems the team is a little, ok maybe REALLY gun shy, about drafting a QB in the first round, but as you saw in the draft, nobody thought your golden boy Geno was worth the #1 overall pick. Unfortunately for our luck our team got that #1 pick in a year with the worst prospects at one of the most important positions in the NFL. Your idea of wanting them to draft a QB #1 overall just because is ludicrous and would have set this team back farther than grabbing Alex Smith, Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray would combined. If we had the regime in charge that we have this year during LAST year’s draft you would likely have gotten a QB in the first round because there were a hell of a lot better prospects coming out last year. Think of it this way, Tyler Bray was listed with a 3rd or 4th round grade, skill wise and we got him without wasting a draft pick because most teams didn’t like his holier than thou attitude. He now has a chip on his shoulder to prove his worth and may be the QBOTF that you have been clamoring for. Not every team is going to hit on a QB the way SF an SEA did in last years draft. They got lucky and if you are truly a fan of the Chiefs, you should know by now that this team has never been that lucky at that position. Hell, as great as Len Dawson was, he wasn’t even drafted by our team!!

          • micah stephenson

            Soon as I seen Tyler Brays name I quit reading. The fans around hur accept any ol body nowdays.

          • Calchiefsfan

            I think you’re grossly underestimating Smith Micah. When Smith finally got good coaching he started to excel. Look at the difference in Cassel between Daboll and Weiss. Weiss got Cassel to the Pro Bowl, Daboll turned him into the worst QB in the league. Reid has a reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. I think Smith is going to have a very good year if our o line comes together.

      • micah stephenson

        I like Sean Smith. D.Robinson old but still usable. We lost or best Dlineman and replaced him with a srcubbier Davito. Our LBs are nice. The D wasnt the problem. It was the 32nd ranked offense or was it 31st ranked.

        • Stacy D. Smith

          Are you sure you’re familiar with Mike DeVito? He’ll be a significant improvement in run support. He’s one of the best in the game in that defensive phase. He’s an inferior passrusher, but that’s not saying much. Dorsey has 1.5 more career sacks. Neither of them are any good in that department. If anything, that position basically stayed the same.

          • micah stephenson

            I think majority of nfl personel will pick Dorsey over Davito

          • Stacy D. Smith

            You keep misspelling his name. That suggests that you probably don’t enough about DeVito to criticize his game.

          • Michael Shaw

            Seriously Stacy? He can’t spell anything in regular English, so why would you expect him to spell DeVito right??

          • Stacy D. Smith

            I’m not ragging on him about misspelling the guy’s name. I just think it suggests he may not be as familiar with him as he’d like us to believe. That might call his criticism of him into question.

          • micah stephenson

            Thats true. :-)

          • micah stephenson

            Devito Davito Deveto its all still Davito when you say it out loud.

        • Michael Shaw

          “We lost or best Dlineman”??????????????????? Wait, I know for FACT you have been one of the ones complaining about Glenn Dorsey and how he hasn’t lived up to the draft position we drafted him at, so how the HELL can you say he is our, not or, best Defensive lineman. Statistically speaking he and Tin Man were good at stopping the run, but that was together. Dorsey by NO MEANS was our best defensive lineman and I agree with Stacy, you need to research DeVito before criticizing the guy. Oh yeah, I have said this once before and gotten blasted for it, but right now I really don’t care, try learning the english language sometime. Most of us on here actually graduated from school and not the hood, so we would like to better understand your position if you could please use real english!!

          • micah stephenson

            Yes our best Dlineman. You say n tinman or poe hav been better? & I never complained about Dorsey. You jus looking for stuff to hate on me now. Was that hood stuff about? Cus im black im from the hood? It aint much but my house is apraised at 300,000 dollars and im not done upgrading it.

          • Michael Shaw

            Actually the hood comment was based on your typing vernacular and I don’t really give a damn what your skin color is. As far as I am concerned we all bleed the same color so who gives a rats … what anyone’s skin color is. Racism is stupid and some people just won’t let it go. Not necessarily talking about you on that one. And I don’t need an excuse to hate on you, you leave plenty of reasons on here by being WAY too pessimistic!! LOL!

          • micah stephenson

            Hmmm. Wat wud lead you to believe i stay n the hood or didnt graduate? Becuase Im black? Cant b becus I refuse to spell like you. I like being me. Which means i spell how I want to. If everybody drives a boring ass white car, ima drive a red or yellow car. Its a handfull of words I spell how i want to. There=thur. Her=hur. Here also =hur. Mayby if you cant sound the words out and use the context of the sentence to know wat(my bad) what im saying then you need to go back to school. Thur(there) are hundreds of thousands of words in the english vocab(vocabulary for the dummys), can u spell them all?

          • Michael Shaw

            LOL! Yeah, but when you spell it right it is easier to follow your line of thinking. Usually I spend more time trying to figure out what your post says rather than enjoying the context of what you are posting, which sometimes you post some funny stuff. As for the car analogy, I drive a black truck and a bright ass yellow Harley!! When I buy my camaro, it will be good old KC Chiefs Red!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • chiefridgy

      How many teams have more than 1 good running back?

      • micah stephenson

        We have a scrubby QB and no wrs besides bowe. Charles and Bowe is all we have on offense.

        • Stacy D. Smith

          You’re right. Forget about Fasano and Avery.
          This schtick is getting old.

          • micah stephenson

            Whaaaaaat!!!! Fasano and Avery? Woooow! The Patriots get The Gronk Monster, the 49s Vernon Davis, Saints Jimmy Grahm and we get Fasano!! Lol. Id rather stick with injury proned Moeaki till he gets hurt. Wasnt Avery in the top 5 of dropped passes last yr?

          • Stacy D. Smith

            Since becoming a starter in the NFL (in 2007), he’s averaged 500+ receiving yards and 4 TD’s per season. Yep, let’s just thumb our noses at that production since he’s not Jimmy Graham. He’s also missed just four starts over those five seasons. You’re right though. Tony “In the tub” Moeaki’s a better option. SMH.

            As for drops… Avery dropped the same number of passes as Eric Decker and Victor Cruz. Guess Denver and New York should be looking for other WR options too? SMH.

            Like I said before… You’re going to criticize everything the organization does whether your arguments can be substantiated or not.

          • micah stephenson

            500 yrds and 4 tds. Whoa dont over welm me now. Thats about 31 yards and .25 tds per game. And did avery hav as many yards and catches as decker and cruz? Hell no!

          • Stacy D. Smith

            How many yards can you reasonably expect from a tight end? In most cases, they’re 2nd, 3rd, or 4th options. Thumbing your nose at that kind of production calls your credibility further into question.

            Let’s test this theory out though, shall we?
            Vernon Davis: 548 yards/5 TD’s
            Brandon Pettigrew: 567 yards/3 TD’s
            Jacob Tamme: 555 yards/2 TD’s
            Marcedes Lewis: 540 yards/4 TD’s
            Jared Cook: 523 yards/4 TD’s
            Dwayne Allen: 521 yards/3 TD’s

            He’s also in the neighborhood of guys like Aaron Hernandez, Antonio Gates, Ben Watson, Tony Scheffler, Kyle Rudolph, Dallas Clark, etc.

            Guess all twelve of those TE’s are trash too?
            They’re all middle-of-the-pack tight ends like Fasano.

            Only about a third of starting tight ends in the NFL go over 500 yards in a single season (on an annual basis). Only 16 tight ends in the league had more than 4 touchdown receptions in 2012 (7 of them had only 1 more).

            In short terms, 500 yards and 4 TD’s per year is AVERAGE production for the position.

            Your football acumen is suspect.

          • oldchiefsfan

            I wish I could click thumbs up more than once!!!

          • Stacy D. Smith

            To your other point about WR targets…
            Avery: 112
            Decker: 120 (.5 more per game)
            Cruz: 137 (1.6 more per game)

            Remember when I said your football acumen was suspect? Yeah… You keep helping that argument.

          • micah stephenson

            Notice how you didnt mention how many actual yards and catches they had or the fact that they had the Mannings throwing to them.

          • Stacy D. Smith

            They were both more productive, but that’s a different argument. Who’s throwing the ball is irrelevant as the drop statistic only considers passes that were “catchable.”
            I’ll wait for your counter-argument.

          • Michael Shaw

            Um, how many years did it take Vernon Davis to even be considered a good TE????? Fasano is no Tony G, but let’s face it, he is the best TE in NFL history and I doubt anyone will ever match his numbers, because most of the TE’s listed above him on the top 100 cannot even stay as healthy as he has been his whole career. As for Avery………..the jury is still out. However, our offense does have more than Bowe and Charles. When you have a shitty QB, see Matt Cassel here, and what pretty much amounted to bad coaching decisions, then you really cannot jump all over guys like Baldwin, Moeaki, McCluster or any of the other youngsters. Moeaki catches balls when and if they are thrown to him, when he can be healthy enough to be on the field and McCluster got injured trying to catch shitty passes from our trio of crappy QB’s, i.e. Cassel, Quinn (who I thought might be better if given the chance, guess I was SO wrong there!!) and Orton.

    • Jason Seibel

      And here we go again. Because stacking 8 men in the box worked so well for defenses last year when we had NO QB to speak of. Listen to yourself man. Can you even spell football?

      • micah stephenson

        Luckily we got a top 5 RB but even with him we still only won TWO games.

        • Michael Shaw

          So who, besides Adrian Peterson, do you think is better than JC? I was watching this stupid top 100 players list and these people are NUTS if they think Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster are better than JC!!!!!!!! JC has been productive his whole career and Lynch produced so little with Buffalo that they let him go to Seattle and after getting a good QB he finally started showing up. Whereas, JC hasn’t had that great or even a good QB and he has constantly averaged 5-6 yards per carry every year, except of course the torn ACL year.

          • micah stephenson

            Nobody. Jc and Peterson are the top 2. Wat do they haft to do with us having a suck QB?

          • Michael Shaw

            He doesn’t suck!! God you are a frustrating man sometimes!!! Is he Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, no! He could be the next Drew Brees, but we will have to wait and see. And I was just wondering if we had JC in the same spot.

  • Calchiefsfan

    I’m less concerned about Smith and our offense than I am about Sutton and our D. We couldn’t have asked for a better schedule to give our offense time to develop. I think Smith and Reid will have this offense humming by the bye week when the season really gets tough. Bowe and Charles will be awesome again. Our tight ends look very solid. Our o line will need to gel and someone is going to have to step up at LG. But I am optimistic.
    The defense is the big question mark and specifically Sutton. If he turns out to be a good DC then we’ll have 10-11 wins. If not then 6-7.
    So I’m going to say 11 wins because I’m a complete and total homer and have been for nearly 50 years.

    • Michael Shaw

      I don’t think the defense will be as much of an issue as you think. He is basically staying with the same scheme and adding his own twists that he learned from Rex Ryan, a damn good DC IMO!! I think our Defense will be a couple of levels above last years because they will actually be attacking and not reacting to offenses in Sutton’s defense.

      • Calchiefsfan

        I hope you’re right. After the Daboll debacle I’m leery of unproven coaches. I like the idea of his attacking strategy and he definitely has the talent to work with.

        • Michael Shaw

          He wasn’t exactly unproven. He was the DC of the Jets before Ryan got the HC job and they weren’t that bad defensively speaking. That added to Sutton learning from Rex has me exceptionally optimistic about the defense we have. Hell we sent three, or was it four, guys from this defense to the freaking pro bowl last year, so it can’t be that bad. Especially when you consider that San Diego didn’t even get ONE guy sent to the Pro Bowl!!! GO CHIEFS!!!

          • Calchiefsfan

            No doubt the talent is there for Sutton. If our D is tough this year we’re going to have a very competitive team. I’m anxious to see how Poe does, he could be a real difference maker. GO CHIEFS!!!

          • Michael Shaw

            Not to mention the fact that now that we have what we all expect to be a more competitive offense, our defense won’t have to be on the field for 70% of the game. Last year our blowouts were due to the offenses lack of getting first downs. Our D stopped several teams early and then just plain got tired as hell from being on the field all day.

          • Calchiefsfan

            I will say I’m looking forward to our pass rush this year. I like the fact that Sutton has the d line attacking.

          • Michael Shaw

            Yeah, that is what I missed the past few years with Gunther gone. He used to play smash mouth defense. He used to love having his guys smack the offense in the mouth!! I am hoping that kind of play has returned.

    • Patriot42

      I think the Barnwell’s Report is about right.

  • KCPauly

    We will put the corks back in the 72 Dolphins Champagne this year as we go undefeated thru the SB how could we not we got the mighty Alex Smith as our QB,(that’s for you Micah) LOL ;~)) I am really looking forward to 10 reg. season wins…Go Chiefs!!!!!

  • Abel Tovar

    Chief fans are in for a rude awakening. Teams are gonna force Alex to throw and that is going to be your downfall. Get ready for one of the lowest 3rd down percentages in the league.

    • ArrowFan

      We cannot go any lower than we where at with Matt C.

      • Michael Shaw

        Ouch Arrow, that is a no-no. NEVER jinx the team like that again please!! LOL!!

      • micah stephenson

        Uh idk Brodie Croyle and Tyler Palko wur pretty bad.

        • Michael Shaw

          Yup, now we just have to hope Arrow didn’t just jinx us!!! LOL!!

    • Suzi Conger

      The voice of Gloom and Doom…. Look at the bright side; AS11 achieved 5+% more 3rd conversion success in ’12 than CK7 ( and 20+% greater RedZone success than CK7 ,,, 10+% greater accuracy/completion%) and SF fans still like him (CK7)…. Cheer up. Drum up some optimism and loyalty.

      • micah stephenson

        The voice of reality….CK7 had 10+% on 1st and 2nd downs than Ass11 resulting in 13% less 3rd downs. CK7 also had 14.2+% more scoring outside of the redzone than Ass11. Ck7 has a bigger arm and more mobility than Ass11 and CK7s dad can beat up Ass11s dad. Lol. I just messing wit ya. Have a good day Suzi Q.

        • Suzi Conger

          micah, lol (but I do agree to disagree with you on your stats )
          you have a good day too

    • Jason Seibel

      Really, because a 70% completion rate is a downfall?

      • Calchiefsfan

        And a 104 qb rating.

    • micah stephenson

      I ben trying to tell them. You cant stop JC but put 8 men at the line of scrimage staring at JC. Then wen they have to pass double Bowe and make Alice Smith try to win with Baldwin, Dex, Avery and Fasano. Lol. Alex has no true deep ball so the defense will only haft to defend 5-15 yards downfield. Baldwin cant get open. Dex is fast but little. Avery fast but not that good. Fasano idk Stacy.D likes him. Andy Ried do like to pass alot tho and deep too. So idk wat this mess gon look like.

      • Suzi Conger

        you’re wrong that AS11 does not have a ‘deep ball’

  • Billie Cabral

    I give it a 10 a F*N 10!!!!!!!!!!!

  • BWrangler

    Just on the coaching upgrade, KC wins 5 more that they otherwise would’ve lost. I think they win another 2 on talent upgrades. 9-7.

    • robert mccall

      Agreed. 9 & 7

  • chiefridgy

    Oh no! I’m not falling for the same trick I fell for last year!

    • Michael Shaw

      Come on! Take a stab at it. You couldn’t do any worse than the rest of us at guessing. I still say we can take the division because I don’t think Denver’s defense is that good, Oakland is………well Oakland and the Chargers really don’t have an offensive line………so why couldn’t we whoop some buttocks this year!!!????

      • chiefridgy

        Okay. I think if we would’ve had a different coaching staff last year we should of won at least six games. So with the addition of the new staff and new players I give us 10 wins.

        • Michael Shaw

          Which is about where I think we land. We might surprise a couple of teams. Which could mean 11 or 12, but that is my dream year, pretty much every year!!!

  • Travis Forsyth

    anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6 but I’ve been wrong before, just hope one of the hopefully many games kc will win this year will be against dallas. living in Oklahoma (yuck) and surrounded by dallas fans, I haven’t forgotten the 2009 game and the whole deal has REALLY fueled my hatred towards dallas and I really hope kc kicks the crap out of the cowgirls….I’m talking a 48-0 smack down!!

    • Michael Shaw

      Not likely with their duo of DB’s! I really liked Carr and then they added the rookie last year and he should be a stud this year for them, unfortunately.

  • Travis Udink

    I say a successful season is if we win a playoff game that should be our first goal

  • ArrowFan

    New GM new HC new OC new DC new QB if things gell fast and we win the early games in the year I say 9+. However if we strugle out of the gate and it takes time to gell Vegas will have called it at 7. But remember 8 or more is the brake point on our 2014 second round pick so 7 isn’t the end of the world if the loses are close entertaining games.

  • Chief Hokie

    7-9 wins

  • David Blanchard

    The Chiefs will be undefeated next year. Alex Smith is better than Joe Montana.

    • Michael Shaw

      And there is always one of those Micah supporters in the crowd!!!

  • Nick Weisbeck

    I just don’t want any embarassing losses.

    • Michael Shaw

      Yeah, if we lose to Buffalo like that again I am gonna have a stroke!

  • Carlos Nevarez

    I think there are a lot og things to get excited about, yeah, but there are stilgonna be a heavy task.lot of question marks on this team. We got ?’s at WR, TE, RT, QB and CB. Unless we have a magical season where the chemistry is just there and it works right away, Its gonna take time to build chemistry with these new rookies And free agents. Not to mention all of this rests on the shoulders of a QB who’s sucked for three quarters of his career. Sean Smith, for all his potential, have Qb’s their highest rating when throwing against him. Our offensive line has the POTENTIAL to be great if everything goes right and thats not even mentioning the D line issues. A lot of things are gonna have to happen to make 10+ wins. I know we have the talent but its still gonna be a heavy task. 6-9 wins realistically. I don’t care though, along as they don’t lose the way they did last year. Go Chiefs!

  • [email protected]

    I’m saying 10 wins….take that to the bank