Could Alex Smith Be The Chiefs Version Of Drew Brees?

On March 4th of this year I posted a piece called “The Alex Smith Trade: Dreams Crushed, Hope Found” that detailed my reaction to the Chiefs acquiring their new QB. The short version is that I was bummed that KC wouldn’t be drafting their own franchise QB, but hopeful that Alex Smith might be more than just a game manager in KC. I even went so far as to say that Andy Reid and John Dorsey might be hoping to make Smith KC’s own version of Drew Brees. Here’s a quote from that piece.

It got me thinking about another QB that switched teams under similar circumstances at a similar point in his career. This QB was seen as a solid starter but was let go because the team had a young QB that was seen as having a greater upside. In his two seasons directly before leaving he averaged 450 attempts per season, about 3,368 yards/season, had about a 65% completion percentage, and averaged 7.5 yards per attempt. Those numbers are pretty similar to what Smith has done over his past 32 games played. This QB went to a new team with a chip on his shoulder and a coach that built his offense around his abilities and his attempts jumped up to 554 in his first season with the new team and he threw for 4,418 yards which was over 800 yards more than his previous career high. Overnight he went from being “just an average NFL QB that lacks the elite talent to win Super Bowls” to one of the most prolific passers in NFL history, and eventually a Super Bowl champion. That QB is Drew Brees.

I thought it might be fun this week to explore this comparison a little more. After all, despite having a talented all around roster, the only way that KC could vault from 2-14 and the first pick overall to a Super Bowl contender would be for Smith to make the jump to elite QB. Let me be very clear, I am not predicting that Alex Smith will be the next Drew Brees, I’m asking if it’s possible.

First off, I will say that I am 100% expecting Smith’s numbers to take a jump in Andy Reid’s offense. Smith’s previous career high in attempts was 445. The average passing attempts in a season for Andy Reid’s offenses is 562. Yes, the Chiefs have Jamaal Charles, but JC isn’t a 400 carry type of RB, so I think it’s safe to assume Smith’s attempts will make a dramatic jump up similar to what Brees’s did when he went from SD to NO. In that same piece linked above I gave the figures for Smith if you took his stats from his past 32 games played and applied them to a 16 game season with the amount of attempts for an Andy Reid offense.

354-562 (63%), 4,189 yards (7.5 YPA), 27 TDs and 7 INTs

That’s not quite Brees numbers, but much better than what Smith has done thus far in his career.

Age wise, Alex Smith (29) is slightly older than Brees was when he went to NO (27). However, Smith only has 4 seasons under his belt where he started 10 or more games which is the exact same number as Brees when he switched teams. So despite the 2 year age difference the amount of playing experience is similar.

So how do their numbers compare?

Let’s start with completion percentage. When Brees arrived in NO his career completion percentage was 62.2% and his career high was 65.5%. Since arriving in NO, Brees has completed 67.1% of his passes. Alex Smith comes to KC with a career completion percentage of 59.3% but was on track for a career high of 70.2% when he lost his job last season. So although his career average is 2.9% lower than Brees’s was, I don’t think he’s that far off.

Next, let’s look at yards per passing attempt. One of the big complaints about Smith is that he’s a “game manager” that doesn’t stretch the field. It’s the number one reason most people don’t think Smith can be a true franchise QB. However, Smith’s career YPA of 6.6 is only 0.2 behind Brees’s when he switched teams at 6.8 YPA. Plus, Smith’s 8.0 YPA last season was actually better than Brees’s career high in San Diego of 7.9. Brees’s YPA since he arrived in NO has been 7.7.

When looking at touchdowns and interceptions I’m going to compare frequency as opposed to totals. In San Diego Brees averaged one TD for every 22.6 attempts and one interception every 34.1 attempts. In San Francisco Smith averaged one TD every 26.9 attempts and one interception every 34.6 attempts. So at the time of their switch their INT numbers were very comparable, but Brees did throw more TD passes. For what it’s worth, Brees has averaged one TD for every 17.8 attempts and one INT for every 38.8 attempts in New Orleans.

Long story short, Brees had slightly better numbers (but certainly not drastic) when he switched teams than Smith brings with him to KC. While Brees deserves credit for that, it should also be noted that Brees was in a much more stable environment in terms of coaching. Brees had the same head coach and offensive coordinator for his four seasons as the Chargers starting QB (Marty Schottenheimer and Cam Cameron) while Smith has gone through three head coaches and seven offensive coordinators with the 49ers (Jim Harbaugh, Mike Singletary, and Mike Nolan at HC and Greg Roman, Mike Johnson, Jimmy Raye, Mike Martz, Jim Hostler, Norv Turner, and Mike McCarthy at OC). So the question is does all that turnover justify Smith having 2.9% lower completion percentage, 0.2 less YPA, and 4.3 more attempts per TD thrown?

An even better question is could Alex Smith see the same kind of bump in his numbers now that he is in a pass first offense? Drew Brees in NO has a 4.9% better completion percentage than he did in San Diego, averaged 0.9 better YPA, 9.1 less attempts per TD, and 4.2 more attempts per INT.

So why compare Alex Smith to this elite Super Bowl winner? It seems impossible that Alex Smith would go from game manager to such a productive QB. That’s exactly why Brees is the perfect comparison, because no one would have believed that Brees would have made that same transformation either. When Brees left San Diego he was a game manager too. It was believed that Phillip Rivers had much greater upside and that Brees basically benefitted from defenses focusing on Ladainian Tomlinson who averaged over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs per season while Brees was the starter. The idea of him going somewhere without Tomlinson and carrying an offense on his back would have been just as crazy. Brees was just the “best QB available” for new Saints coach Sean Payton, just as Alex Smith was just the “best QB available” for Andy Reid.

So the idea of taking someone that others thought was just a game manager and making him the centerpiece of your offense is not something that has never been done before. The question is simply wether Alex Smith is up to the challenge. There’s no way to know until the games start, but I stand by what I said back in March. Andy Reid and John Dorsey didn’t bring Alex Smith to KC to be a game manager.

So what do you think Addicts? I look forward to your comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Topics: Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Kansas City Chiefs

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  • Daniel

    Comparing Alex Smith to Drew Brees. No that is hilarious. Dream on. You’re getting something more like Cassell, again.
    Alex Smith was a bust for SF before Harbaugh came along and saved his career. Made him a system QB in his style of offense. Relied heavily on the running game and their defense. Smith barely averaged a little over a TD a game.

    If your new Coach Reid, still plans to use the passrun ratio about 60%-40% you guys are in big trouble. Reid had a stud in McCoy but foolishly under used him last year. I think he’ll make the same mistake in KC.

    • http://www.arrowheadaddict.com Patrick Allen

      Every QB is a system QB.

      • Stacy D. Smith

        Exactly. Many a quarterback has failed because he was placed in a system that didn’t match his strengths. Many a quarterback has thrived because they were placed in systems that minimized their weaknesses. Some quarterbacks are more system-diverse than others, but the point still rings true.

      • KCPauly

        Good call Pat…Go Chiefs

      • Daniel

        Alex Smith was in the “wrong system” for 5 years prior to Harbaugh. He complained about all the different OCsystem changes that stunned his growth. Finally, Harbaugh system worked for him.

        But, guess, what, new team, new coach, new system in KC. Harbaugh knew what he had in Alex Smith. That’s why he benched him mid season and shipped him out ASAP to another foolish team who fell in love with Smith.

        • Troy Utt

          Do you even watch actually football? Alex Smith went down with a concussion, & as the team had gelled & were playing well around Kaep, they did not swap QB’s again as they went on a play-off run! Smith is ranked as high or higher in most vital QB catagories…QBR, Redzone, etc…
          The new brass in KC smartly identified the best QB suited to run the hybrid WCO that Coach Reid operates out of and went after him! That my friend is called being decisive!
          WAR CHIEFS!!!

    • Stacy D. Smith

      Alex Smith is nothing at all like Matt Cassel. He’s much more decisive in the pocket, has superior ball placement, reads defenses well, and will throw it to the right guy more often than not. I don’t expect him to become Drew Brees, but he’s turned the corner and has improved steadily for several years now.

      I’m not concerned about Reid throwing the ball more often than Smith is used to. He takes good care of the football. Smith is an efficient QB whose numbers should see an increase in Reid’s offense.

    • Jim Harper

      If you think Smith is more like Cassel then you are the one who is hilarious. All QB’s are basically “system” QB’s. I hate that term. Put Manning in a college option offense and he would not fare so well and neither would Brady for that matter. They are both pure pocket passers which is also a “system”. So does the system influence how well a QB plays? Of course it does. That is why you play to their strengths!

      • Daniel

        System QBs are the Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfers of the world. They are the one and done type of guys. They were put into a position not to screw up. Those teams relied on their running game and defense.

        Tom Brady of the early 2000′s was on a run oriented team. His game evolved to a spread WR attack later on once Billecheck believed in him and then to a 2 TE attack. Yes, Brady was in Billecheck’s system, but it evolved into different types of an offense once he because a superstar.

        • Kelby

          Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer have each been to a Superbowl with one win. Much like ….Drew Brees! Cassell took a perfect team to just miss the playoffs the following season.

        • Jim Harper

          Your last sentence makes absolutely no sense so I don’t know what point you are trying to make. It is obvious however that you do not understand what a system QB is.

    • antony555

      Why are you even here?
      It appears with comments such as that your not a Chief’s fan
      Why don’t you go rain on someone else’s parade!!!

      • Kisersosay

        He’s a Faider. Nuff said.

      • micah stephenson

        Im here cus I love the Chiefs and I want them to win. Im just not as gullable as some are falling for that Alex Smith stuff.

    • skwirrl

      Alex’s improvement actually goes back to the Eagles game in 2010. (And the Saints game before that where he led a comeback to tie it and the defense blew it) but particularly the Eagles game. That was the game he got benched and blew up on Dingleberry. Then after that he pretty much ignored what Dingleberry wanted and played team football and nearly got the Niners back to .500 after an 0-5 start. Only problem was that Dingleberry wanted his guy so he put Troy Smith in to lose games.

      • KCPauly

        We as Chiefs fans have been through just about enough negative BS over the years, we SURELY don’t need it from you and the Micah’s of the world, if you type of people think it’s that bad, then go be another teams fan and stay off our site, fairweather fans SUCK not AS..Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!!

        • Jason Seibel

          I think you meant this towards Daniel and not KCPauly…am I right?

          • Jim Harper

            Don’t waste your time on Micah, Jason. He does not respond well to logic, and I think he just enjoys stirring everybody up so the best way to respond to him is to not respond at all. Anyone that is still crying about the Chiefs not taking Geno cannot be taken seriouly. He was not even strong enough to get taken in the 1st round by any team. It is also starting to look like he can’t even beat out Sanchez. How pathetic is that?

          • micah stephenson

            Wow! I havnt mentioned Geno’s name sinse the jets did. We needed to draft a QB and he was the best one. We didnt so im on to next yrs crop of QBs. F**K Geno Smith! We didnt get him so F**k him. So who eva the good QBs are next year thats who ima want. If they dont get a QB next yr ima want 1 the yr after that and on and on untill we get 1.

          • micah stephenson

            Geno cant beat out Sanchez in OTAs???? I think you trying a lil too hard buddy. Training camp hasnt even started and Geno cant beat out Sanchez!!! Lol. Wow. Everyone one knows Geno is the FutureQB for the jets and Sanchez is on borrowed time. Which QB wud you take Sanchez or Geno. Sanchez of corse cus he sucks but you hating on Geno so its Sanchez.

        • micah stephenson

          I wonder If the Chiefs would have drafted Geno Smith, & my comments are opposite, wud I b a chiefs fan then? I love the Chiefs. Those are my Ninjas! I just dont like Alex Smith. I dont say nothing about the rest of the team. I just dont like Alex Smith. I dont care wat people say about me. I love the haters too. I like to keep a 50/50 ratio on the lovers and haters. Alex Smith just dont impress me. Im still going to every game. Pratices in St Joe. Pep rallys at Power and Light. Autogragh signings at random places. Im still buying an Eric Fisher Jersey even tho I wanted Geno. Im still Tailgaiting before and after the games. I jus not convinced about Alex Smith.

        • skwirrl

          Are you sure you meant that for me?

          • KCPauly

            no sir sorry

        • micah stephenson

          Let me get this st8, wen yall dont like Cassel, E.Winston or B.Rhichardson yall still fans but wen I dont like Alex Smith then Im a fair weather fan. Ok I see how it is.

          • KCPauly

            Come on Micah, it’s the off season what else is there to do but banter back and forth, with each other? All I’m saying is you don’t have any reason to hate AS in KC yet, when/if he gives us that reason believe me I will be right there with ya bro, but until then I just think we should welcome and support our QB…Go Chiefs

          • micah stephenson

            Anything less than a playoff win means he wasnt good enough. I dont see a playoff win coming anytime soon. We shud draft a young QB and Wr core, let them play now get the growing pains out and after a yr or two when Manning retires we will b ready to start winning the afc west and playoff games.

          • KCPauly

            FUCK Manning…Go Chiefs!!!!!

    • micah stephenson

      Smith might b slightly better than Cassel. But he is still a stop gap untill we draft a real QB…….I hope.

      • Daniel

        Now this is a smart Chief’s fan who already knows Smith isn’t the answer.

        Big QB draft in 2014. Teams who need a Franchise QB will be ready for this draft. You guys were wise to grab a top OT in the 2013 draft instead of reaching for a QB.

        • skwirrl

          The Chiefs will be wayyyy too far down to draft any of the QBs

          • micah stephenson

            We just gon have to trade a bunch of picks to move up and get 1.

          • skwirrl

            Nah. You’ll be in the playoffs so you’ll be targeting either a secondary player, ILB or TE/WR

          • Troy Utt

            Really need to focus on WR… Was kinda surprised we did not this year! we left some fliers on the table that could have been of huge benefit! I hope Kniles works out…

          • micah stephenson

            Hell yea. Besides Bowe and Charles we dont hav much.

          • micah stephenson

            Playoffs??? With 8 wins and the Broncos winning the afc west?

          • micah stephenson

            It aint like they wud draft one anyway. Even if one fell to them

  • Dwntown

    Daniel, I cant figure out what you think is so hilarious?????? You were just given the numbers at the switch of teams for both QB’s…… AND, NO ONE thought Brees would be anything but a game manager at the time either. Furthermore, there is a HUGE difference between a stable coach/OC and 5-7 different ones over same span of time, as well as Brees in a run first offense at SD. HMMMMMMMM, Maybe you should read first before spouting off a statement that is about the title of the article and has nothing to do with the actual content…….

    • micah stephenson

      I did! I liked drew breez and thought the chiefs shud get him.

      • Michael Shaw

        Yet you still believe, even given the like numbers, that Alex is more like Cassel???? Me thinks you are confused!!! Still fun bantering with you Micah!!!

        • micah stephenson

          Yes I still believe if you put Cassel on a team like the Patriots or the 49s he will start to look like Alex Smith. If you put Alex Smith on the Chiefs he will start to look like a slightly better Cassel.

  • Jason Seibel

    I love the comparison! I’m not saying Alex Smith will sling the rock for 5,000 yards a season, and I don’t want him to. I hate the notion that the only stat that defines an “elite QB” is total yards in a season. Smith takes care of the ball and is a team player, relying as much on his running game as his arm. He will throw the ball more this season than any season past…there’s not a doubt in my mind, but it doesn’t concern me at all. Great read, Lyle. Great research! Thanks!!!

    • antony555

      Agreed, I truly believe that we have our QB and also a very capable one to fill-in if he gets injured, also for the first time in his career he is in a stable environment and will flourish because of the coaches and the owner and don’t forget Chiefs nation! Go Chiefs Go..

      • KCPauly

        All of Chiefs Nation except the all knowing Micah LOL…Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • berttheclock

    One interesting comparison between Brees and Smith. I checked for comments concerning Brees signing with NO originally. Some SD fan wrote a critical review of the work of Brees in SD and thought moving to Rivers made the most sense. He based this on his study which suggested Brees had a far higher QB rating against lesser defenses than he did against the best. Something like 102 against the weak and 62 against the strong. This is very similar to some comments concerning Smith by the negative crowd.
    Of course, in SD, their system relied heavily on the running of Tomlinson and the system in NO was far different. Plus, in SF, for quite some time, it was Gore up the middle on 1st down, Gore up the middle on 2nd down and “Make something happen Alex on 3rd down”.

    • skwirrl

      That was definitely the Dingleberry offense. 3rd and 8? Crap WRs and a miserable offensive line? Alex you better drop back there, avoid the guy that; like clockwork, comes free almost immediately, then break contain and make a play to a receiver that isn’t open.

      • micah stephenson

        Yall expected Cassel to make plays under those circumstances. So why not Alex Smith?

  • berttheclock

    Oh heavens, Alex Smith did not do well his first and second season in SF. Why, one would have thought having Antonio Bryant, Arnaz Battle and Bryan Gilmore as his wide outs, he should have set records. Plus, the fact, Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker were just learning how to play in the NFL. Gore ran for well over 1600 yards, while Alex tried frantically to get over 2800 yards with a very poor receiving corps.

    • Jason Seibel

      But he’s the second coming of Matt Cassel. Gotta love it!

    • skwirrl

      That 05 Niners team was historically talent poor. The 04 team squeaked out 2 wins on OT field goals and didn’t improve a bit in time for 05. By 06 with a healthy Jonas Jennings at LT instead of Adam Snyder (lol) and Larry Allen at guard leading the way for now starter Frank Gore the team was immensely better. Sadly Jennings was injured again the next year and Alex got crushed onto his shoulder to lose 18 months of his career.

  • Calchiefsfan

    I don’t expect Smith to throw for 5,000 yards but I do expect him to have his best years in Andy Reid’s “system”. This argument I keep hearing about how Smith sucked until Harbaugh came along so Smith will fail without Harbaugh is a false argument. Smith has the skills, as he has shown, he just needed a good coach to bring it out. Reid is excellent at bringing out the best in a quarterback. This is why I believe we will finally see good QB play in KC in 2013.
    Once again, great article Lyle. I remember when Brees was let go by San Diego and thought they were crazy to do so. Brees was a good QB then. The thing that San Diego was concerned about was his shoulder and whether it would heal up okay. As far as I’m concerned they gambled and lost.

  • micah stephenson

    Nope! Alex Smith sucks. He has reached his ceiling. We will all be looking at the rookie QBs coming out next yr by week 10.

    • Lyle Graversen

      Look, you could be right, he could struggle, but you have nothing more to back up that argument than those that think he’ll do well.

      • micah stephenson

        I jus think he is an ok QB not bad. Not good. Just hella average.

        • David Blanchard

          He plays in the NFL.. That makes him one of the best players on the planet, already… You want average? Go play in the back yard.

          • micah stephenson

            Tyler Palko played n the nfl. Do that make him 1 of the best players on the planet too?

          • Michael Shaw

            He got you there David.

    • Stacy D. Smith

      He’s been trending upward for several years now. There’s probably more information to suggest he’ll stay the same or continue to improve than there is anything to foreshadow a decline.

    • Jason Seibel

      And…he’s back. Wish I lived closer to you, Micah so I could actually bet you a BBQ dinner that Smith passes for 3500 yards this season.

      • KCPauly

        Back and as bitter as ever that we didn’t get his lover boy Geno..Go Chiefs!!!!!

        • micah stephenson

          I aint mention Genos name sinse we passed him up till today. Im on to the next rookie class of QBs

      • micah stephenson

        And thats alot of yards???? Why not 4000-5000 yards? Becuse you know he aint gon do it.

        • Jason Seibel

          He might do it, but I don’t think he needs to. With Charles rushing for 1500 yards in a season, Smith won’t have to put up huge numbers…especially if the Chiefs aren’t playing from behind all the time.

          • micah stephenson

            Charles had more yards than that last yr and we won 2 games. we need waaaaay more passing yards.

  • micah stephenson

    Baaaah ha ha haaaaa! Lmao!!!!! Wow. Idk why yall think this bum will all of a sudden start passing for 4 or 5000 yards a season. Will the saints give us breeze for Smith?

    • Lyle Graversen

      Glad to amuse, of course the Saints wouldn’t trade a proven Brees for someone who hasn’t proven to be on the same level. I would wager that Smith hits 4,000 yards if he plays all 16 games though.

      • Stacy D. Smith

        I’d expect something more like 3,500. He played all 16 games in 2011 and amassed about 3,200.

        • micah stephenson

          Wud I b in the majority or minority if I said “I dont think Smith or Moeaki are gone play all 16 games this yr?

          • Stacy D. Smith

            I don’t think that’s unrealistic.

        • micah stephenson

          I think Alex will hav about 3500 yards too. About 20 TDs 15 ints. No playoff wins. And fans will say give him an extention and “just wait till next yr”

          • Stacy D. Smith

            He’s only thrown that many single-season interceptions once his entire NFL career (his sophomore season).

          • micah stephenson

            Just keeping it real. He plays on a team whur the wrs consistantly tip the ball up n the air to the defense now.

          • skwirrl

            They did that on the Niners too. Crabtrees hands up until last season were pretty damn poor. Crabs fumbled 3 or 4 balls over his career right into a DBs hands. Delaine Walker did it about once a game.

          • KCPauly

            Micah, a lot of the tips were caused by Cassel and Quinn throwing the ball over the WR’s heads and them still trying to make a play on it, I think with AS’s accuracy the tips to Def’s will go down, I know you hate AS, I don’t know why. I was with you for drafting a QB, but I trust AR/JD to know more about football than me and if they think AS was the best available option I will go with it until I have a reason to be a negative Nelly, in the meantime I say welcome to KC AS, I wish the best for you now that you are on my beloved team, let’s show AS why KC fans are the best in the world by welcoming him and supporting him, until we actually have a reason not to, just give it a try, AS does not necessarily, suck just because YOU say he does, give the guy a break for shit sake, let him at least put pads on before you lynch him…Go Chiefs!!!!!!

          • micah stephenson

            Uh no. Thats a lie. A lot of tips bounced right off the wrs hands when the pass was chest level right into they hands. I dont count a pass to high to catch and the wr jumps up and barely tips it. Our wrs wur tipping up balls that wur perfecr passes.

          • KCPauly

            HAHAHAHAHAHAHA…A perfect pass last year?HAHAHAHAHA now that is a LIE…HAHAHAHAH
            Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!!!!!

        • micah stephenson

          Im no english major but it seems like the word amassed shud b used when you pass for 5000 yards. I think he had a measly o 3200 yards sounds more like it. Lol.

          • Stacy D. Smith

            Did Alex Smith refuse you an autograph at some point? Sheesh. Hahaha.

          • antony555

            Agreed!

          • micah stephenson

            No the Chiefs just refused to draft someone at the most important position over the last 30 yrs.

          • Jason Seibel

            That’s not true. They’ve drafted two in the last 6 years…or have you forgotten about the Brodie Croyle project and Tricky Ricky Stanzi? You don’t always have to draft your franchise QB. Just ask Sean Payton.

          • micah stephenson

            Im talking bout 1st rd talent with the potential to b a franchise QB. Not Croyle or Stanzi.

          • Jason Seibel

            Because Tom Brady, Joe Montana, and Steve Young were all first round talent? You’re not even making sense dude. Mark Sanchez went in the first round, how’s that working out? Tebow went in the first round. Come on man!

          • micah stephenson

            Im not making sense saying the Chiefs need to draft a really good QB really high in the draft soon? If that dont make sense to you, then nothing will.

          • Stacy D. Smith

            Utterly untrue. They just haven’t drafted one in the First Round. Remember the entire article is about a quarterback who’s playing elite football for a franchise he wasn’t drafted by. The position has been addressed. May not have been what you wanted, but you can’t deny that they addressed the problem.

          • micah stephenson

            Wow. You looking for a QB. We get A.Smith and you think they addressed it. Lol

          • Stacy D. Smith

            The past two seasons he’s had a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio, has completed 60% and 70% of his passes (respectively), and has had passer ratings of 90 and 104. He’s been trending upwards for years.

            Tell me why he won’t succeed in an offense perfectly suited to his strengths? Tell me why he won’t succeed with a QB friendly HC who has always gotten the most out of his quarterback talent?

            And I’m going to need a little more than the circular argument you’ve been using thus far.

            Don’t worry, I’ll wait.

            He may or may not be the answer. That remains to be seen. To pretend the position wasn’t addressed though, is asinine.

          • micah stephenson

            Geting a QB like the saints did is rare. Why my team got to depend on the methods that rarely work? Why they just dont draft a good QB like most the teams do?

          • Stacy D. Smith

            That method works more often than you’d like to admit. Several teams have succeeded with quarterbacks they didn’t draft.

        • Lyle Graversen

          Right and in 2011 he had 445 attempts. The average attempts for an Andy Reid QB is 562. That season he averaged 7.1 YPA, so 7.1 times 117 more attempts is about 830 more yards. 3,200 + 830 = 4,030 yards.

          • Stacy D. Smith

            I’d expect fewer passes here with the run game we have in Kansas City, but the math definitely checks out.

      • micah stephenson

        4000!!!!!! Lol x 1000!!! Lol some more. Ah ha ha haaaa. You are so funny Lyle. I didnt know you had such a great sinse of humor. I like you a lil more now just becus you make me laugh.

    • Michael Shaw

      Wow, Micah, you are STILL butt-hurt that we didn’t draft Geno. Why don’t you go and be a Jets fan if all you are going to do is bash on the QB we took instead of Geno?!! I will bet Geno starts this year when Sanchez screws up, as usual, but I wouldn’t be so sure he will last long with the shitty line they have. I have no problem with people voicing their opinion, since that is what this site is made for, but geez, do you like the team or do you only like the team when they take YOUR guy in the draft or free agency. I absolutely did not want Dontari Poe last year, but you don’t see me still whining about it do you??? If you are a TRUE fan, get behind Alex and the rest of the guys until there is need to jump on their backs and complain about how the season goes. I have NO idea if Alex will be the next Drew Brees, but man wouldn’t that be something if he did??!!!!

      • micah stephenson

        Dude. Fuck the Jets. And Geno. I didnt want Poe ether, Y get a NT when you need a QB? They cuda took Wilson or Kopernick.

        • Troy Utt

          Micah, You have been the driver for the Geno bus and not shown back up til now! Where were you when all There is no way to have known that either Wilson or Kaep were going to be NFL ready QB’s, as it even caught the team that drafted them off-guard! Just look at Brady… we could go on…
          Sorry…I know you have a love affair with Geno and him not being able to even take out Sanchez for the starting job… I’ll take Alex Smith all day every day and twice on Sunday!

          • micah stephenson

            Why do peole keep saying Geno cant beat out sanchez when all the jets have had are a few OTAs? Training Camp hasnt even started. You cant even tackl or really play for real in OTAs? Sanchez is done. They polled KC fans and none of us want Sanchez.

  • paul pace

    I like Smith and it is not that far fetched that he could be another Brees! I know time will only tell but I think Smith is underrated by many who think he was a bust in SF. In comparison to Cassel it is night and day! The only thing good about Cassel was he was a team player but his skills as a qb were sub par. Smith has talent not only in his throwing ability but his mobility as well.

  • micah stephenson

    Mmm let me see. What do I think? Duh we need to draft a QB and get him some wrs besides Bowe.

  • micah stephenson

    If Smith was all that he wud still b the QB for the Niners. The difference between the Chiefs and the Niners are the niners are try n to win superbowls. The Chiefs are just trying to sell tickets.

    • Lyle Graversen

      And if Brees was good enough to set the record for passing yards in a season then San Diego would never have let him leave….Oh wait.

      • micah stephenson

        San Diego???? Lol. Aint that the same team that traded Eli Manning for P.Rivers? And fired Marty after a 14-2 season and a playoff loss to the Patriots? Lol.

    • antony555

      Actually who’s team are you a fan of, what is,is what it is!.
      We have Alex Smith at QB and he is our starter.
      All of these negative comments from someone who probably has never seen the inside of Arrorhead since there was an Arrorhead stadium, talking about fair weather fans, come on now troll give us a break..

      • micah stephenson

        I go to every game. Whats wrong with wanting my team to finally draft a QB?

        • Lyle Graversen

          I believe you’re a KC fan 100% Micah, I just think you’ve let the disappointment of not drafting a QB taint your view of things. I was all in on them drafting their own QB too, but I’ve moved on. If Alex Smith does fail (I don’t think he will) then I’ll be right back on the draft a QB bandwagon with you, but for now I’m encouraged by what I’ve learned about Smith.

          • antony555

            agreed!

          • micah stephenson

            So you think we will win a superbowl with Alex Smith?

          • Lyle Graversen

            I think it’s possible. Would I bet my life savings on it? No, but I saw enough out of him in SF these past two seasons to give me hope.

          • Michael Shaw

            Barring injuries, yes.

          • ArrowFan

            There is a much better chance with AS than with Geno or Matt Cassel.

    • Jason Seibel

      What do Joe Montana, Drew Brees, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning and Alex Smith all have in common? They were starting QBs who were at the top of their game, got hurt and lost their job to the younger “better” model. But by your statement they all suck because they lost their job. Hell, look at Favre. He didn’t even get hurt and he lost his job. You’re crazy and have no basis for your argument.

      • micah stephenson

        Dude…… You have Alex Smiths name on the same list with Montana, Manning and Breeze. A stament like doesnt warrent a response.

        • Jason Seibel

          Again…you miss the point completely…

      • micah stephenson

        Wow. Wooow. Wooow. Saying I said those QBs suck are puting words n my mouth. Ive never said anything close to that. I said I dont like ALEX SMITH. He is average. He is not very bad but he is not very good ether.

  • KCPauly

    I will give him every benefit of every doubt, as he has progressively been trending upward and finally got stability and showed he could lead his team to the championship rounds, I also think he will be playing with the biggest chip on his shoulder ever…Go Chiefs!!!!!!!

  • KCPauly

    Good read Lyle, Stay positive KC Nation…Go Chiefs!!!!!!

  • Lyle Graversen

    FYI, over the past 5 years in Philly which includes the tail end of McNabb’s career, Kevin Kolb, Mike Vick, and Nick Foles, Reid’s offenses still averaged 3,961 yards passing per season.

    • KCMikeG

      Thanks for the very interesting perspective you shared. That information you just posted is the deal sealer as the system is the true guide for performance. Reid has always been successful at selecting the right QB for his system, getting way more out of/in trade for the QB’s he has coached and wanted AS before coming to KC. He has what he wants and we have the weapons he will utilize properly. I have high hopes and expectations for AS. It will all come down to if our OL can gel as a unit. If they can protect him then he will have his best year yet. As will Charles and McCluster.

  • Jim Butler

    I like the article, it was informative and gives me something to think about also confirms my high expectations of Alex and the team. GO CHIEFS !!!!!!!!!

    • Lyle Graversen

      Thanks Jim

  • larry syres

    Long time Niner fan but now a Chiefs fan due to Alex Smith. The comparison to Drew Brees is appropriate. If Alex has an offensive line, he will be great going through his reads and finding the open receiver. VERY intelligent quarterback! Can’t wait until the regular season. Never had the respect he deserved in SF. Go Chiefs!

    • Jason Seibel

      Welcome to the Chiefs Kingdom Larry! Glad to have you.

    • Michael Shaw

      A very hearty welcome aboard the Addict Nation Larry!! Hope to see you posting some good insight that some of us were not able to see when Alex played with SF!!!

  • KCMikeG

    Thank goodness we haven’t had to play Brees two times a year every year instead of Crybaby Rivers.

  • micah stephenson

    To everybody thinking me not liking Alex Smith is becuase we didnt draft Geno…..FUCK GENO! We didnt draft Geno so I cud careless about him. We needed to draft a QB and he was the best 1. We didnt draft him so fuck him. So start up all the funny lil comments about who eva is the best QB coming out next yr. Its not about Geno its about drafting a QB.

    • Jason Seibel

      You missed the whole point here. The Chiefs got the best QB available…just like the Saints did…without drafting. And let me fill you in on a little secret…they’re not going to draft a QB next year either.

      • micah stephenson

        Of corse not. Next yr there will b alot of good QBs coming out. So its only natural that the Chiefs dont get one of them.

    • ArrowFan

      Bray wasn’t drafted but that wasn’t because he wasn’t good enough talent wise. Now I wouldn’t call him a first round talent but he is defiantly a 3rd round development type guy. Anyway we can still draft a high QB to develop next year or the year after if needed. This year was just not a good year for it.

    • Troy Utt

      Micah, It’s about developing a QB… and until Reid says or proves otherwise why should we not believe they have a QB on staff to develop that can take us into the future? Reports from camp would lend that both Bray & Stanzi are doing well behind Alex Smith & Chase Daniel…(Daniel who in his own right is a wild-card-but tutored under Brees!) Stanzi although a mid-round pick was an accomplished college QB & a very smart one at that, which is evident in the reports of him having already having picked up the entire play-book! I personally felt lucky we were able to get Bray as an UDFA! OTA reports on Bray as well have been as good, claiming “He’s in a good room!” He has a gun for an arm & has towed the line… Reid may be able to do his thing with either of them…I wouldn’t be so quick to throw them under the bus…

    • Troy Utt

      I believe all 32 NFL teams would disagree with your philosiphy of who the best QB was! As every single team passed over him and or made other arrangments for a higher priced Vet FA QB prior to the draft! It’s almost like you choose to ignore the stats & facts continuing to ride the crazy train yelling “we could have had!” The problem with that is that in 99.9% of the situations the Chiefs (JUST AS ALL ELSE) had no way to know when it comes to the Bradys, Kaep’s, & Wilson’s… Or were in no position to move at the time (Brees)… The point is Alex Smith is our QB…was & is the best suited to run the hybrid WCO inwhich Reid features…
      That included college prospects & professional FA’s… Having only been a dropped ball away from the NFC champ game season before last, & with the progress he continued on with last year, this life-long Chiefs fan is standing behind OUR QB until we have reason to feel otherwise! If you are going to be a fan… be a fan…
      WAR CHIEFS!!!

  • aelder027

    Micah u clearly have no clue what you are talking about…… I’ve followed Alex Smith his whole career. I am from Utah so I watched him there and have always kept close tabs on him as a pro. He can absorb a playbook with the best of them and we will win a playoff game this year with Alex at QB mark it down he was our best option and we won’t regret trading for him.

  • ArrowFan

    Just the fact that JC is going to take a few of AS’s 3 yard passes and turn them into 90 yard TDs, his passing yards will go up over what he has had in the past. Will he be Drew Brees? I defiantly think he has the potential to be placed in the elite QB conversation, if we win a SB under him and he is passing for 4K yards and 25+ TD’s and 10- INT’s.

    • skwirrl

      Alex will love to have an option like JC. Any time Alex thinks a pass will pick up more than 6-7 yards with zero risk he’ll take it. I think Jamaal gets nearly 100 targets. Seriously like Roger Craig/Marshall Faulk caliber season receiving.

      Alex plays the percentages until he absolutely has to take risky big plays. That doesn’t mean he won’t go downfield… But he’ll go downfield when he has dictated the matchup and coverage he wants by exploiting what’s been given to him to that point and the chances of a turnover are very low.

      • Michael Shaw

        Yet his fellow players say Ray Rice and Arian Foster are better than him. Can’t argue AP as he is the man until beaten by another RB, but JC IMO is better than Rice or Foster!!!

        • skwirrl

          LaDainian says JC is the second best back after AP. I can’t disagree with a hall of famer who’s style of running is very similar to JC.

    • micah stephenson

      Alex Smith Elite! Ah ha ha haaaaaaaaaa!!!! Lol

      • ArrowFan

        My statement did come with needed requirements first.

  • Lyle Graversen

    Thanks for all the great feedback and discussion everyone. Having a post hit the triple digits in the NFL dead zone says a lot about how much all of you care about this team. Now if you’ll excuse me, I just downloaded the Man of Steel Soundtrack and I think I feel another video creation in the works.

    • Michael Shaw

      Oh crap, here we go again!!!

  • Michael Shaw

    First of all, GREAT article Lyle. Thank you for all the data supporting what might or could happen with Alex here in KC and having a HUGE chip on his shoulder after what happened to him there in SF. I understand some people are arguing vehemently that Alex is just another Cassel, but i don’t really think the numbers show that.

    • KCPauly

      neither does his gun show..LOL :~)) Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Jason Ray Brawn

    Very great article Lyle not a bad comparison at all. Now i believe as long as our major key players all stay healthy (i.e. Bowe, Smith, Charles, Our O-Line) we will see something like 1200 yards rushing 800 yrds recieving for J.C. , 1300 yards recieving for Bowe, and around 3800 yards for Smith. and a 10-6 record on the year. Also i believe that there’s a great chance that the Chiefs do get a QB with first round talent in the next draft. The 2014 draft i believe will be the deepest draft in quite a long time with McCarron-Alabama, Bridgewater-Louisville, Thomas-Virginia Tech,Boyd-Clemson, Murray-Georgia, Mettenberger-LSU, Martinez-Nebraska. I personally believe that all of the QBs listed will be projected as either 1st or early 2nd round talent come the end of the season next year. And i think that neither Stanzi or Bray will be on the 2014 active roster so they will see a developmental franchise QB as a high need next year and i personally hope we either get Teddy Bridgewater out of Louisville or Tajh Boyd out of Clemson to be the future of our franchise in 3 years once they learn from A.Smith and Andy Ried.

    • micah stephenson

      You dont actually think we will draft a QB in the 1st rd do you? Chiefs are much more likely to trade for another teams trash before they do that.

  • stephan costa

    Excellent article

  • Kimball Thomson

    Great article, well researched and reasoned.

    Some stubbornly stupid comments here from Alex Smith haters, against all reasonable evidence. We’re talking about a guy who was the top-rated QB in the league before his concussion. He was on pace to set the single-season completion percentage record. He has phenomenal smarts, unquestioned integrity, character and leadership ability. He has the deep respect of his current and former teammates. When given a legitimate opportunity, he has risen to the occasion, including that brilliant, gutsy playoff win over Drew Brees and the Saints. There is no good reason not to give him his due, or a chance.

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