The Chiefs’ Quarterback of the Future

With Draft Day almost upon us (finally!!), the raging debate among Kansas City Chiefs fans still revolves around the quarterback position.

Some feel, like I do, that Alex Smith puts us in a position to win the AFC West and then try our luck in the playoffs. It follows, then, that we should draft Luke Joeckel or another positional stud because the QB position is filled for now. Others are convinced that Alex Smith is simply Matt Cassel 2.0, and desperately want the Chiefs to draft Geno Smith, who will go on to a Hall of Fame career and bring multiple Super Bowl wins to Kansas City.

Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing which camp is right. Alex Smith has certainly played like a top ten quarterback these past two years, but his previous six years in the League were mediocre. Geno Smith is, in my opinion, the best quarterback in this Draft class, bar none. But Geno didn’t even make the Big 12 First Team— he lost out to Colin Klein from K-State. And his West Virginia Mountaineers finished the year in the bottom third of the conference with a pedestrian 7-6 record, including 4-5 in the Big 12.

The good news is that both Smiths would do well under Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid, who has a penchant for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Alex Smith’s rejuvenation began when Jim Harbaugh took over to coach the 49ers. With Reid and Offensive Coordinator Doug Pederson, Alex Smith should do the same here, and Geno Smith, if drafted, would flourish under their tutelage as well.

All in all, I have to admit that there is an equal amount of risk for either Smith. Geno has more upside but simply did not lead his team to victory in 2012 and is, in my opinion, being hyped beyond his talent level because he is the best among a weak quarterback class. On the other hand, Alex is a proven top-ten quarterback, but I don’t know if the past two years were a fluke.

But there’s one clear and compelling reason why I think the Chiefs made the right decision with Alex Smith, and why they shouldn’t spend their first round pick on Geno Smith: 2014.

Here’s a short list of the quarterbacks that may well be available in 2014, in my rough order of preference, 365 days out:

  1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
  2. David Fales, San Jose State
  3. Tajh Boyd, Clemson
  4. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
  5. Derek Carr, Fresno State
  6. AJ McCarron, Alabama
  7. Aaron Murray, Georgia
  8. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech

That’s eight quarterbacks, all of whom are legitimate first rounders, with five or six potentially going in the top half of the first round. While I expect the Chiefs to improve dramatically on their 2-14 record this year, I don’t think we’ll finish 13-3. That means that we will be in a position to take one of these quarterbacks outright, or trade up just a few slots to land a Quarterback of the Future for the Chiefs. If Alex Smith flames out, then we will have a new starter in 2014. If Alex Smith plays at a Pro Bowl level, then we don’t have to rush our 2014 quarterback into action but will have secured our quarterback for the next decade.

Whomever the Chiefs pick this year, whether it’s Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher at left tackle, or Ezekiel Ansah or Shariff Floyd on the defensive line, or Dion Jordan at linebacker, I believe this pick is much smarter than selecting Geno Smith. Next year is the year to take a quarterback. Picking Geno Smith now makes no sense in the short and long-term. In the short-term, if you are trying to pick a quarterback that gives you the best chance to win in 2013, I would argue that Alex is a better choice than Geno. In the long-term, if we pick Geno now, we’ll lose out on a key positional player that we need in 2013, and will have wasted that pick for an even better option in just twelve months time.

Addicts, we’ve talked a lot about the need for a Quarterback of the Future, and whether or not we should take Geno Smith our first round pick. Where do you stand now, Addicts?!!

Topics: Kansas City Chiefs

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  • Jason Seibel

    I’m with you 100% Miles! The Chiefs spent a lot on Alex. I think he’ll be good this year. Like you said though, if he’s not, next year is the year to take a QB.

    • micah stephenson

      So when I start wanting the best QB in next yrs draft, you wud b ok with that?

      • Jason Seibel

        Depends. If Alex does well I would see no reason to go after a high QB next year.

        • micah stephenson

          Wat is well to you? How many wins is well to you? Is just geting a wildcard game and geting beat in the 1st playoff game well to you? How many yrds passing and tds is well to you?

          • Jason Seibel

            If you are judging QB play on yds and TDs you really don’t know anything about football.

          • micah stephenson

            Thats why I started off asking about wins and playoffs wins or do judging a QB off of wining and losing also mean I know nothing about football?

          • Jason Seibel

            To answer your question, to toke a 2-14 team to the playoffs after one year would be considered a success. I would take that.

          • Jason Seibel

            *take

          • dominicscarlatti

            Jason, some people are always in need of instant gratification.

          • William Campbell

            Agreed tho I think he is perfect for Andy Reid’s system, unlike a overrated air raid qb (which have a strong history of failure at this level) like geno smith

          • Derek

            this team was NEVER 2-14. Better coaching and not a bunch of lifeless, scared, suicidal pesonnel and this team was worth 7 wins not 2. PTSD is a bitch. I’ve been to war, I understand. Now, as I recall this time last year the chiefs, according to the “experts,” were destined to win the divison and be a play-off contender…..quit being delusional. If alex smith WINS a play-off game not just manages it–talking 250 yards and 3 TDs, JC will have to carry the load as always– I’ll get behind him but if he leads us to 8-8, I see no reason to have kept him in the first place. Shit, if that happens I’d put Daniel in and if Geno wins a play-off before we do at a less superior team, then what will you think???

          • Jason Seibel

            I’m so confused by your statement, I don’t even know where to begin. First, I’ve also been to combat, so I get PTSD, though I’m not sure what that has to do with anything. The Jovan Belcher incident happened at the end of the season, after it was more or less over. The team was a 2-14 team. That’s what their record was so that’s what they were. Period. You are what your record says you are. The experts did say the Chiefs were a “trendy” choice to win the AFC West, but we see what happened with that. How am I being delusional? Alex Smith has started in two playoff games. In the first, he threw for 299 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs and ran for a fourth TD. Oh, by the way, he led an 85 yard game winning drive in that game. While his second playoff game wasn’t as good, he threw for 200 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs. Special teams lost that game, with a fumble. In neither of those games did Alex Smith perform poorly. As for Geno, I’ve said all I can say about him. I don’t think he’s going to be as good as you do. Pure and simple. I think he’s a QB who rode the wave of playing with great WRs against bad defenses. I guess we’ll see, won’t we?

          • KCPauly

            Hell yeah Micah haven’t you heard that our “glory days” are Peterson/Shottenheimer winning Reg. Season games that is all Chiefs fans expect as greatness

  • cyberry

    I think Alex Smith will do well..but I am a Tajh Boyd fan..

    • Bosco Cletus

      I am too, after watching him slice and dice LSU’s defense in their bowl game. That’s as close to an NFL caliber defense as you can get really.

      • cyberry

        I personally think Boyd fits into Reid’s offense perfectly..give him a couple of years learning behind Smith…

  • Stacy D. Smith

    I’d take a Tyler Wilson in Round 3 (if he’s there).
    Double down and give yourself options.

    • Derek

      steadman Bailey is of more value than wilson

      • Stacy D. Smith

        I disagree. Wilson plays the more important position and he’s one of the few quarterbacks I’d consider drafting in a weak class. This draft is rich with wide receivers.

    • micah stephenson

      Not Tyler Stanzi 2.0 Wilson! Lol. Walter football had him available in the 4th rd in they latest mock. I do think Wilson has a stronger arm than Alex Smith.

      • micah stephenson

        I take that back. T.Wilson might b last yrs R.Wilson.

    • Kyle ferguson

      I love Wilson wanted him over geno befor we got Alex. I got a thing for gutsy gunslingers

  • oldchiefsfan

    I’d like to win this year and not be in the first picks of the draft next year. My team has sucked for so long now I want wins. Not only do I want wins, I want playoff wins. I want to stand at Arrowhead and scream my lungs out in January and watch this team play and WIN. I want to feel the stadium shake beneath my feet from the crowd noise at Arrowhead again. Isn’t that what Alex Smith is supposed to do for us? Isn’t that why we gave the first pick in the 2nd round this year for him and another pick next year? Isn’t he supposed to be Andy Reid’s “anointed one?” Are we already preparing ourselves to say “Oh no we Suck AGAIN?” Is the point of this to say “we got Alex Smith and when we suck again we can do better next year? I’m tired of saying “next year” like I have been saying since the ’71 season I want THIS YEAR! If we just took Alex Smith as some kind of analgesic cream to get us to next year without being quite as horrible as we have been recently then we really did “pork the proverbial pooch” with giving up that 2nd round pick.

    • micah stephenson

      I think they plan on keepin A.Smith unless another back up becomes available. They traded the 34th pick and a 3rd on him and looks like they using Albert to get a 2nd so Geno at 1 is out of the picture. Next yr they aint using a 1st rd pick on QB. So Alex is the QB. Im not happy about it but its out of my control.

  • Tyler Alexander

    We cant conclude those 8 qbs will all be first rounders because u know at least 2 will have poor seasons and flame out like Barkley did, plus the injury factor, and Manziel will only be a sophomore and may not come out at all. And, the reason G. Smith isn’t the #1 pick in the draft is the exact same reason he was 2nd team to C. Klein… a shit defense. The whole article is presumptuous and subjective. Chiefs fans need to face the reality that A. Smith is the guy for the foreseeable future and if he can move this very talented Chiefs team forward we won’t be in the position to take the best qbs next year or have a desire to.

    • krayfish

      Geno Smith is not the number one pick because he is not that good period. Draft scouts don’t look at final scores and judge a player on that. They know the defense sucked, but Geno is rated where he is because his not that good at all. I doubt he even survives as a starter in this league.

      • Derek

        you’re out of your mind; he is the most talented rookie passer coming out and more accurate/reliable now that his footwork has cleaned-up. He’ll be a star and we’ll watch him play else-where.

        • William Campbell

          Oh man you must be right.. I mean he must be a star cause he is so accurate… I mean the most accurate qb in college history (the great colt McCoy) is a future hall of famer. How could I not see it? Rally need a sarcasm button

      • William Campbell

        Agreed.. watched a certain defense completely dismantle him to the point I thought he was crying on the sidelines.. but he wasn’t he was just pouting..

    • Ron White

      The most QB’s taken in the first round has been 4. Only 3 times that has happened in the last 12 years. Twice though in the last 2 years. So no way 8 QB’s go in the first round. There will be some QB’s to be had if we choose to pull the trigger.

      • Tyler Alexander

        If Smith plays well we may not have a 2nd next year either….

    • micah stephenson

      Whoa whoa whoa. Sinse wen is the worst team very talented. We won 2 games. We have a few pcs like Charles and Bowe but VERY talented? You drinking the kool aid brotha

      • Tyler Alexander

        Hali, Houston, DJ, Flowers, Berry, Asamoah, Robinson and Sean Smith are all talented players and Fasano and Moeaki are nothing to sneeze at either. Horrific QB play and turnovers killed this team last year and A. Smith can remedy that. Why don’t u do us all a favor and route for the Raiders instead of trolling for G. Smith here? That’s where ur man love is gonna be anyway.

        • micah stephenson

          Fuck the Raiders. It aint about Geno Smith. If Chiefs dont get Geno ima just want Bridgewater or another QB next yr. Just cus I want the Chiefs to draft they own QBOTF dont mean I dont want them to win.

          • Tyler Alexander

            According to u its not possible because the Chiefs are talentless outside of Bowe and Charles. Hard to tell what part of this team ur a fan of by ur comments.

          • dominicscarlatti

            He was Matt Cassel’s biggest, and last, fan. His bromance with Cassel dissolved when he was cut, so he’s compensating with a rebound relationship with Geno.

          • William Campbell

            Oh he’s on the rebound huh? Now it makes sense

  • Justin R Groth

    I thought a lot of people last year were exited because this draft of qbs was supposed to be good, I even remember some dolphins fans being upset because they didn’t wait to get Barkley or Jones instead of reaching for tannhill (can’t spell his name)

  • krayfish

    I am going on record saying that Ryan Nassib will be the best QB out of this years draft class. Also I predict that Geno Smith will not make it as a starter in the NFL…career backup.

    • micah stephenson

      Geno a career back up? So 7 or 8 yrs from now there is a chance that we trade a 2nd rd pk for him?

      • oldchiefsfan

        I laughed

    • William Campbell

      Rec’d.. I really like nassib too. Two or three years behind smith (the Rodgers approach as I’ve become fond aloft calling it) and he will be a franchise guy

  • freshmeat62

    Matt Scott of Ariz.

    • Derek

      really liked that kid…however he’s going to be gone in the 4th-5th and we have more pressing matters at the point on the defense yet or even charles’ back-up; unless cyrus gray is the man We can’t afford Scott sadly just like we never can afford to draft that star QB. Geno was the only hope because next year those 8 QBs are mostly out of reach; I will say that a mediocre season will next us one of the 6-8s if that happens however I could handle having Aaron Murray in Chiefs red. But I predict Geno to be a better QB still than Murray even. Manziel, Bridgewater, and Boyd–QBs everyone wants will be covetted and out of reach for KC PLUS with giving up our 2014 2nd-3rd we are left with fewer bargaining chips to even make a trade-up for one of them.

  • http://www.facebook.com/alan.chamberlain.9 Alan Chamberlain

    This article brings up some good points, but the question is will we ACTUALLY take a first round QB? It will have been 31 years since we pulled the trigger on a first round QB. Even with the smorgusboard of QBs next year, I won’t get my hopes up until we actually pull the trigger. Until then, I will assume we will continue to trade for other team’s backups.

  • micah stephenson

    I agree. Kinda. If you want to win now Alex is the best choice. But exactly how much can we win with Alex? 8 games? Mayby 9? Wat is winning to you? Wining the superbowl or wining 9 games and geting beat down in the playoffs? We aint gone win nothing this yr so skip Alex and get Geno ready. Geno might not win as many games as Alex this yr but who will b the better QB next yr?

    • William Campbell

      Can I borrow your Chrystal ball please? You just seem to have everything figured out. You know exactly how its gonna go right?

      • micah stephenson

        I do. Alex will win us 8-9 games at the very most. We might earn a wildcard beat down. Fans will say “wait till next yr” “Alex just needs 1 more yr”. We will have a pick 16-18. We wont draft a QB 1st rd next yr becus it will be better to wait till next yr. Lol.

        • William Campbell

          The thing about it is if your wrong say 11-5 and a playoff win you just look stupid.. so why be a know it all? Just curious?

          • Derek

            Because it’s obvious and the NFC 49ers were a much much better team all around than KC has been in more than a decade

        • KCPauly

          8-9 wins are good enough for the sheep Micah, remember our “glory days” are good regular seasons, the sheep will flock and talk about how great the Chiefs are “We won 9 games, we are back”…winning to me is SB or bust , 28yrs.+ I been a fan and I want Championships, sick and tired of this next year BULLSH*T……GO CHIEFS!!!!!

    • Kyle ferguson

      Alex smith took the niners to an NFC campionship game and when he was under center last year a lot of people considered them the best team in the league. So to me he has proven he has the ability to take a team on a deep playoff run. I would just stop wasting your breath with the geno smith nonsense because not only are we not going to draft him but Alex is going to be the better of the two for the next 5 years if you ask me

  • Bosco Cletus

    I honestly believe that this is why they want to get a 2nd round pick back, because they want to draft the best qb on the board there, whether it be at 42 or 54. If Albert is in fact taking a physical for the Dolphins today, then I would assume if he’s healthy the trade is all but done. That would change the Chiefs board and strategy a great deal.

  • micah stephenson

    Why bring up names of QBs that will b 1st rd draft picks? We all know the Chiefs are scared to draft a QB 1st rd.

    • KCPauly

      Sorry been out of town, but Micah it doesn’t matter if we take cast off QB’s see above Chiefs fans will be happy with polished turds

  • micah stephenson

    Chiefs Motto: We can get a QB next yr.

  • micah stephenson

    The Chiefs company line: We can get a QB next yr.

  • Derek

    Your argument is great except you’re leaving out the fact that 8-8 or 9-7 teams aren’t able to draft those top QBs….this was the one shot we’re going to have to get a top pick QB for at lesat the next 3-4 years….until then we will remain mediocre. However drafting Defense I’m okay with as long as they’re smart the rest of the draft. Any tackle talk needs should be revoked however

    • Kyle ferguson

      Why don’t we need to beef the line up? Everyone complains about taking a tackle yet look at the last time we had a really good team, back in the days where preist Holmes was rushing behind those big o line men setting td records and winning thirteen consecutive games. Just like the qb position you can’t put any old left tackle in and expect him to help win games it’s time for us to stop ignoring our biggest weakness and draft a tackle

      • KCPauly

        this is the sh*t I’m talking about “really good team” why cuz we won regular season games, Chiefs fans are so down trodden and pathetic that mediocity is good,NO the last time we had a really good team was 1970 when we won the Championship, I want Championships not good regular seasons, c’mon lets start looking for Champions not just reg. season winners, this talk is so pathetic yet typical of Chief fans QUIT settling for crap…..GO CHIEFS(to the SB)

        • dominicscarlatti

          I’m sorry that you self-identify as ‘downtrodden’ and ‘pathetic’ but I certainly don’t. I’m still a diehard Chiefs fan, just as I have been each and every season since 1969.

        • Derek

          THIS is how people need to think…sadly…like this feruson chap, chiefs fans are naiive and so used to be a laughing stock that they’re willing to settle with a mediorce or winning season but not a single play-off win

    • dominicscarlatti

      Jim Kelly and Dan Marino went in the middle and near the end of the 1st round in 1983. Montana was a 3rd rounder. Aaron Rodgers, late 1st, Drew Brees, 2nd, even Russell Wilson in the 3rd last season. Looks like BA will be headed to Miami, so OT is the obvious pick in the 1st, barring a big trade down.

  • micah stephenson

    Cmon! Duz anybody really think we will take a QB 1st rd next yr? Or will they find a reason to wait till next yr.

    • Derek

      lol oh micah

  • NathanaelL

    new chiefs leadership new mentality on draft picks. If smith is a bust you will not get to see him go out in a year. He’ll probably get a second chance. or third or fourth… But I expect AJ to improve this year again and AL take the championship again. Roll Tide! If the Chiefs would like to pick him up in the second round I would be ok with that. He could sit behind Smith for a year.

  • micah stephenson

    I think Alex Smith gives us a chance to HOPE for a wildcard spot. The Broncos will win the AFC west.

    • William Campbell

      Hmm haven’t the last several Superbowl champs come from the wild card rounds?

  • micah stephenson

    I literally think the Chiefs draft strategy for QB is wait till the other 31 teams have drafted a QB then draft 1 by default cus everyone else has a QB already.

  • micah stephenson

    Who are the good back up QBs around the lg we can trade our 2nd rd pick for next yr when Alex Smith dont work out?

  • micah stephenson

    The Chiefs have no credibility when it comes to them drafting a QB 1st rd. Everyone is like “id haft to see it to believe it”. Noone believes they will do it! This yr or next!

  • micah stephenson

    Are ALL 8 of those QBs on that list better than Geno?

    • William Campbell

      Dorsey, who had a hand in drafting Rodgers and Reid, who took donavan went to the combine… watch this young man intensley then the very next day gave up possibly 2 seconds for smith.. hmmmmm… but you know now that I think about it I realize your right, after watching all the qb starved teams like buffalo, Arizona, Cleveland, Oakland, and Philly just fall all over themselves to get the guy (kolb, Palmer, weeden, Flynn and vick) I think I’ve completely changed my mind… is there a sarcasm button? It would be a lot cooler if there was

  • redchiefs

    Bingo, spot on. I don’t want us to take the top QB in the draft at the #1 spot. I want the right QB. I remember when the Chiefs took Todd Blackledge. They passed on a couple very good QBs. This new Regime of R&D has two good track records for finding quality QBs. Dorsey came right out and said none were worthy, I believe he’s right. His record says he knows what he is talking about. Andy Reid is extremely happy with who he has under contract right now, I trust Andy Reid too. GO CHIEFS!

  • Jamie Denton

    Love the article! and agree! I think this is the plan in place for the future of the Chiefs and I have said it myself in earlier posts! Why not take what is the best available of this years draft and in my opinion it’s not a QB. I think Geno is way over hyped just because he is the best available QB available this year! we need to get what we need this year to solidify our offensive and defensive lines, our defensive LB’s and maybe some secondary help, then next year take a crack at a QB. we might even get another wide receiver this year if a good one fell in our laps, or some TE depth as well! I then think we would be in pretty good shape!

  • football4life

    LOL!!! WOW who ever made that QB list has to be one of the people who believes Geno will win multiple superbowls. McCaron form Alabama should be in the top three and I’d just about bet money Geno will never even win a playoff game, let alone a superbowl. First off we all know, well at lease the few who actually know something about the game and don’t go just based off stats, that AJ McCaron belongs way higher than that and the fact that i could find only one African Americsn quarterback who’s ever won a superbowl period is enough for me to rest my case. Alex was by far the best decision Andy and the Chiefs Organization made.

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