Oct 6, 2012; Austin, TX, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers Stedman Bailey catches a touchdown pass while defended byTexas Longhorns cornerback Brodrick Jenkins (23) during the third quarter at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. West Virginia beat Texas 48-45. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

2013 NFL Draft: Where KC Can Find Value And Fill Needs

Thankfully, the NFL draft is almost upon us. After weeks of speculation, predictions, debates, and discussions fans will finally begin to get some answers when the Chiefs go on the clock with the first overall pick in just 10 days. I’m saving my final Chiefs draft pick predictions until next week, so it was a little bit of a struggle to come up with something new regarding the Chiefs draft that one of the other writers here at AA hasn’t already covered.

I originally thought I would write about whether or not the Chiefs would draft a QB in this draft. My question was, with both Alex Smith and Chase Daniel on the roster would the Chiefs feel obligated to fill other needs instead? I started to think about what round they might be willing to look at a QB and if there would be any QBs worth drafting left at that point. So I started looking at the specific spots the Chiefs are currently picking in the first 5 rounds (Picks: 1, 63, 96, 99, and 134). Then I started looking at a couple of prospect big boards to see what kind of QBs were likely to be available at those picks. I used both Drafttek’s and NFLDraftScout’s rankings to get a feel for where prospects were valued.

This got me thinking about other positions I thought the Chiefs might be interested in drafting. At that point I decided that instead of focusing solely on the QBs I would look at the Chiefs’ first five picks and see if I can find positions of need that may have draft value at the specific spots the Chiefs are drafting. John Dorsey is on record as saying he drafts for value over need. This means he won’t reach for a player that isn’t as good just to fill a need. Obviously the best scenario is when one of the best players available lines up with one of the team’s biggest needs. That’s what I set out to find, positions of need for KC that have a shot at providing the best player available when the Chiefs are on the clock.

In order to make the cut, a position had to have multiple players ranked within several slots of the Chiefs pick. That way it wasn’t reliant on one specific player still being available. Also, for the sake of this post I’m acting as if the Chiefs don’t acquire any additional picks. If KC were to land a 2nd rounder that may change things.

Let’s start with the first pick.

Round 1, Pick #1 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Offensive Tackle

I know not everyone is in love with the idea of KC taking a tackle with the first overall pick, but when it comes to value at the top of the draft OT is the clear winner. Luke Joeckel/Texas A&M was the top ranked prospect on both lists with Eric Fisher/Central Michigan ranking 2nd and 3rd and Lane Johnson/Oklahoma ranking 6th and 7th. So three of the top seven players available in this draft are offensive tackles. So if the Chiefs want to take the best player available they can do it and fill a need. I realize that if KC keeps Branden Albert this season that they would be essentially drafting a RT at #1 overall, but if they are out to take the best player and fill a need then offensive tackle is the way to go.

Round 3, Pick #63 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Wide Receiver

While this draft lacks an elite WR prospect like Randy Moss, Julio Jones, or AJ Green it is INCREDIBLY deep with starting caliber WR prospects. Prospects that could have easily been early second round picks in other drafts may find themselves slipping into the 3rd round this year. The following players all ranked in the #57-84 range on at least one of the big boards listed above:

Justin Hunter – Tennessee
Terrance Williams – Baylor
Quinton Patton – Louisiana Tech
Markus Wheaton – Oregon State
Stedman Bailey – West Virginia
Aaron Dobson – Marshall
Da’Rick Rogers – Tennessee Tech

Now, it’s a safe bet that not all of those players will still be on the board, but odds are that several of them will be. That would allow KC to take a player that could compete for the #2 WR spot as a rookie at the top of the third round. By the way, while John Dorsey was in Green Bay they took Greg Jennings at pick #52 and Randall Cobb at pick #64. In my opinion the only other position that comes close to the talent available at this pick is CB, and with the signings of Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson I think WR seems much more likely.

Round 3, Pick #96 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Quarterback

I could be wrong about this, but I have a feeling that there is going to be a couple of QBs still available at this point that many people had predicted would go much earlier. Basically, the fact that several teams addressed the QB position via guys like Carson Palmer, Matt Flynn, and Kevin Kolb make it less likely that many QBs will be drafted in the first round and may therefore push some of the guys originally mocked in the 2nd-3rd round back even farther. There are 8 QBs that have been regularly mocked in the top 100 picks: Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray, and Zac Dysert.

Over the past 5 years the average amount of QBs taken in the first 3 rounds is only 5.4. The highest number of total QBs taken in the first 3 rounds during that time is 7. In a year where most feel the QB talent is down, it’s not out of the question that there could only be 4-5 QBs off the board when the Chiefs select at the end of the 3rd round. I wouldn’t even fall out of my chair if a guy like Tyler Wilson or Mike Glennon that were at one point mocked in the 1st round was still available. That means if Andy Reid wants a young QB to groom for the future this may be the prime time to snag one. The Chiefs pick again at #99 so they could easily wait a couple more picks, but my guess is that if you give all the QB needy teams one more go around in the 4th round that there won’t be much left to choose from in the 5th. At that point KC would be looking at guys like Matt Scott/Arizona, Landry Jones/Oklahoma, and Sean Renfree/Duke.

Round 4, Pick #99 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Running Back

Thus far in free agency Kansas City has not added a solid #2 RB to back up and share carries with Jamaal Charles. This may be a sign that they are looking to add one in the draft. Like WR, there aren’t any “super-star” prospects in this draft, but there are several mid round prospects that could become solid NFL contributors. The following backs are all ranked between #93-116 on at least one of the big boards listed above:

Montee Ball – Wisconsin
Andre Ellington – Clemson
Joseph Randle – Oklahoma State
Stepfan Taylor – Stanford
Mike Gillislee – Florida
Marcus Lattimore – South Carolina
Christine Michael – Texas A&M

Again, not all of these guys will be available with this pick, but several will be and KC could have their pick of which one they like best.

Round 5, Pick #134 Overall:

Best Value At Position Of Need – Offensive Line

At this point in the draft teams are looking for depth and developmental prospects and there are MANY options that will be available to do just that on the offensive line at this point in the draft. I don’t know if any of these players should start as rookies, but I think many of them may eventually develop into legit NFL starters. A 5th round pick that develops into a solid starter is great value, period. Even if takes them a few years to get there. Here is a list of players that at least one big board has as still available for KC in the 5th round:

Khaled Holmes – C – USC
PJ Lonergan – C – LSU
Hugh Thornton – G – Illinois
JC Tretter – G – Cornell
David Bakhitari – G/T – Colorado
Dallas Thomas – G/T – Tennessee
David Quessenberry – C/G/T – San Jose St.
Brennan Williams – T – North Carolina
Jordan Mills – T – Louisiana Tech
Xavier Nixon – T – Florida
Chris Faulk – T – LSU
Ricky Wagner – T – Wisconsin

I didn’t do the last three KC picks (#170, 204, and 207) because I think by the time you get to the 6th-7th rounds it’s more about individual project players that a team likes than it is positional depth/value. It’s possible that a certain position slides that deep into the draft, but I’d just be guessing if I tried to predict which one.

So if KC were to follow this blueprint what positions of need would not get addressed? The most glaring is probably the defensive front seven. KC could use more depth on the defensive line and another pass rush option. They are also in need of a replacement for Jovan Belcher at ILB, but perhaps the recent FA signings at LB will fill that hole.

The other positions that were ignored here are TE and safety. While KC doesn’t need to spend a high pick on either of those positions, a mid round pick to add depth is certainly a possibility.

So what do you think Addicts? If KC drafted those positions next week would you be happy? Do you feel like it would provide good value? Would it fill enough positions of need or do the defensive front seven, tight end, or safety have to be addressed in the draft? I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

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Tags: Kansas City Chiefs NFL Draft

  • krayfish

    I am passing on the QB in round 3 this year as I think next year will be a much better QB class. We need pass rush desperately, I do like Da’Rick and I love the RB pick. We need a RB this year for sure.

    • berttheclock

      Over at ESPN AFC West, yesterday, Williamson questioned the pass protection abilites of Draughn. He said, while, he is good catching passes out of the back field, he has been a liabilty on blocking plays and Williamson believes the Chiefs should add another RB to the roster.

      • krayfish

        no doubt about it, we have a real issue there if Jamaal goes down.

    • dominicscarlatti

      I will be shocked if we don’t draft a RB in the first five rounds.

  • berttheclock

    Great breakdown as usual, Mr Graversen. Over the weekend, someone who does know a great deal about the NFL said it best. He said there is not that much value in the upper part of the 1st round, but, the draft is deep with players who can help a ball club in the later part of the 1st and in the 2nd and 3rd. That person is John Elway.
    So, should John Ireland be serious with his “I can trade up to 1st” claims, let him and pick up the needed later picks, Hey, Mr Ireland, if you want 1st, then, give up your first and both seconds. As Ireland added to his comment, he, also, said, if given the chance, he would draft a Jake Long and a Pouncey anytime in the 1st round. He said this was due to his always knowing what they would produce on every play. At long last, he may have found Miami a starting QB in Tannehill and he understands the need to protect him.
    This could really build the Chiefs with solid talent and would not cost as much money as the 1st pick.

    BTW, to those from yesterday who were arguing about Alex Smith being right or left handed, I suggest you Google that question, then, check out the many photos from the Sacramento Bee showing him throw with his right hand. He throws right handed.

  • micah stephenson

    Uh im confused. 1st everyone says this is a weak QB class. GENO SMITH is the ONLY QB that gets anybody excited. They say none of these QBs will b any good or even hav a job in 3-4 years. One guy is such a big hater that he said “In 3-4 years Geno will flippin burgers”. If this is true why do people say we can get a QBOTF in the 3rd rd? Why even waste a pick on a QB? If you can get the best QB in the draft you take him or why even bother geting a QB? The same people who say Geno wont develope into a NFL QB will say “we can draft a QB later in the draft” or of corse the ol company line, the Chiefs Motto,” We can get a QB NEXT YR”

    • berttheclock

      Cue “A love affair is a wonderous thing”.

    • Lyle Graversen

      First off, you know I was all in on the Geno bandwagon from the beginning. I still love the guy but I have come to terms with the fact that there is a 0% chance that KC drafts him. Alex Smith will be the starter and Chase Daniel will be the #2 QB next year. The only spot up for grabs is the developmental #3 spot. I think if one of the 2nd tier QBs after Geno is still on the board at that pick Reid may take him to develop as either an eventual replacement for Smith or trade bait like he did with Kevin Kolb.

  • berttheclock

    So far there has been no mention of Dorsey speaking with Peter Lalich, of the California University of Pennsylvania. Both GB and the Jets have met with him. Possibly, he could play for GB in preseason against the Chiefs, either coming from a 7th round pick or UFA position. Six foot five or six strong armed QB who played for UVA, but, had problems with the bottle and was kicked off the team. Ended up getting ready to start for Oregon State, but, yet, another incident with the bottle. Appears to have put all of that past him. Some scouts have said he is better than Barkley. No combine invite, but, he did have a Pro Day.

    • Derek

      this is an interesting idea….i will hve to do some research on this kid but we already have UDFA QB at KC called tanney

  • berttheclock

    One note of caution to the comments by John Elway I posted below. It is very easy to dimiss Joeckel, Fisher, or even Johnson when your team has Clady in place, a very solid offensive line, especially, with the huge addition of Vasquez to guard. Elway drafts at 28, so, he, only needs to plug some needed backups into his talented roster. His comments are really only of a concern to the Chiefs in adding the importance of picking up a 2nd rounder to replace the one they gave to the Niners.

  • http://www.facebook.com/shawn.killion.3 Shawn Killion

    Get Brandon Albert off the chopping block absolutly keep him and take Luke Joeckel competion at the position will only make them both better, and say Albert is getting tired at LT from being bull rushed all game imagine Joeckel there at RT to swap back and forth.
    I dont see the need for WR here talent is there just didnt have QB to get it to them, now we do.I would lke to see what RBs are available at 63 although Grey and Droughn can step in to give Charles a breather i want a big back that can come in and pound it up inside for short yardage and stay in and help protect when needed.
    At 96 and 99 I would still be looking to build O line be looking for OG or another OT here. Defense is alot better than most give them credit for all the turnoers put them in some really bad positions. with an offense to keep them off the feild and rested they can be a shut down defense

    • Dave

      You can get really good RB later in the draft. No reason to take one at 63. I also think taking a good receiver there could be a good option. Baldwin hasn’t shown much and it seems like he won’t fit with what Reid wants to do.

      • http://www.facebook.com/shawn.killion.3 Shawn Killion

        I disagree if you want spred offense you need WR that can stretch the defense let him loose to run down the sideline make the CB and safties stay deep open up the middle for TE and RB out of the backfield I think he fits great

    • Trevor Gooding

      I agree completely except for the WR talk, we still need someone that has the speed and some size so we can throw deep more often.

  • ArrowFan

    I would love to have Bailey. After watching so much tape on Geno I have come to love Bailey.

    • berttheclock

      He runs very precise routes.

      • mg2098

        Bailey is good but you have to take in to consideration he played with the same QB’s for 7 years. He also had a very speedy top 15 pick on the field with him in Austin. He will be a great possession (4.5 forty) WR in the NFL, but we already have D. Bowe for that. I’d like them to get a guy like Kenny Stills or Marquise Goodwin. I don’t think Avery is the answer for the Chiefs to stretch the field. We need our own version of Mike Wallace

        • Derek

          goodwin is bad a receiver…speedy but drops everything and looks to have poor concentration. Swope would be a better stretcher than etierh one of those

        • Lyle Graversen

          Avery is fine to go deep here and there to keep defenders honest, but let’s be real, Alex Smith isn’t going to be mistaken for Joe Flacco and his cannon arm so finding a Torrey Smith isn’t really a priority. Smith is going to have to make his living off the short to intermediate game and accurately putting the ball in small windows. In order to do that you need WRs with good routes and sure hands and Stedman Bailey is about as good as you get at both. I think Bailey would be a huge success in an Andy Reid coached / Alex Smith lead offense.

    • micah stephenson

      I like him too. Take Geno #1 & Bailey wit the 3rd rd pick.

  • http://www.facebook.com/tyler.eckstein.31 Tyler Eckstein

    I see us drafting a d lineman somewhere before the 5 round. Andy likes drafting lineman and we could use some depth there plus this is a good draft for that position.

    • Lyle Graversen

      I agree with that in general, but when I went pick by pick and looked at the guys predicted to be available I didn’t really find a spot where I felt like DL was the best value available. That having been said, I certainly won’t be surprised at all if they draft at that position.

  • Trevor Gooding

    The 1st round draft pick is so up in the air right now the only thing we can do is wait. I guess!

  • Derek

    terrible positioning…

  • Scot Hickerson

    Chiefs fans did you guys pay attention to Reid at All while he coached in Philadelphia?? Reid is going to find a team that will trade up to get Geno Smith. Reid will get his second round pick back for Alex smith.. He will get the most valuable player available and that may be a Quarter Back.. He will go OL later in the draft there are plenty of good ones. There are some valuable players at the top someone will trade up.. Reid is awesome at finding talent in mid to later rounds that he develops and trades for higher Picks.. Don’t Be surprised if Reid drafts Landry Jones he is the best player to run the spread and capable of beating out Alex Smith… Jones is a first round to second round player.. Who ever writes this is an idiot..

    • Lyle Graversen

      I appreciate the feedback and thanks for reading, but I feel pretty confident that a year from now my assessments will hold up favorably against yours, especially the Landry Jones is capable of beating out Alex Smith take. Jones won’t be drafted before the 5th round at the earliest.

  • Bigtexjayhawk

    My top values. Fsu kicker last pick, jon bostic ilb, michael rb, and fauria te

  • Guest

    I agree totally Ladner (ha, got it right), except that instead of QB in the 2nd, 3rd round pick we should go LB of RB, if Michael from A&M, is still available.
    If we do aquire a second round pick, who do you see falling to us as a need?
    I still wish we could some how grab the Oregan LB, and get Matt Long in the second, but that scenario is unlikely.

  • Kyle Hershberger

    i dont think they will daft a running back unless its clearly the best player available, I think there was a post on here talking about how our 2nd RB may already be on the roster