Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Why I’m Off The Geno Bandwagon


I have stepped off.

There, I said it.

It’s been quite a ride, one that involved personally providing about 1/3 of this video’s total views. I am also the ESPN Football Today Podcast’s designated Chiefs SuperFan, and when we SuperFans pretended to be GM’s and did our own mock draft, I of course rushed to the (totally metaphorical in this case) podium and took Geno Smith 1st overall.

That same day it was announced that the Chiefs had agreed to the trade for Alex Smith in principle, and I reacted pretty much like this.

But, a lot then changed over the past few weeks.

First, the Chiefs went out and had themselves one heck of a free agency. The team was able to retain the services of our three most important free agents, picked up some solid additional pieces and everyone they let go was replaced. RT Eric Winston who was this year’s shocking cut, is still on the market. So, as questionable as that decision seemed at the time, apparently the NFL is seeing something we don’t.

In the end, my greatest fear with the Alex Smith trade was that this new regime saw our loaded roster and thought, “We can probably win games with these guys plus a game manager.” Like many others, nightmares of Matt Cassel were dancing in my head.

I also just wanted this team to draft a damn quarterback in the first round for once come hell or high water. That is something this team has never done since I have been alive, and during my 25 years on this Earth only two quarterbacks drafted by the team have started a game for the Chiefs – Doug Hudson and Brodie Croyle (spoiler: both sucked).

But, at some point, once the kneejerk frustration wore off, I realized I was projecting all of my hopes and dreams onto Geno and what he might become, but wasn’t really looking at it all in the proper context.

First off, I don’t really watch college football. I went to a university without a football program and I only really have time to be irrationally obsessed with one team in one league at a time. From what I understand, however, most of the conferences are heavily lopsided and if you truly are a 1st-round NFL quarterback, you should dominate the collegiate competition. Geno didn’t do that and had several duds in his senior year.

Secondly, when determining a player’s worth, it’s about more than what your team wants. Value is determined by the market, and the market is determined by buyers and sellers.

When you’re watching the stock market, you don’t want to follow the chatter. Studies have actually shown that statistically you are better off doing a fire sale on any stock Mad Money’s Jim Kramer tells you to buy.

Instead, investors and market watchers are following the “smart money.” Don’t listen to the talking heads, watch the people at the top whose livelihoods depend on being right about this stuff and who are consistently the best at it. In this case, we have the actual NFL teams and their armies of scouts to observe. If you see how they behave, you get a good idea about what the smart people think about this year’s market for quarterbacks.

So far, the consensus seems to be that another team’s backup is better than any of the incoming rookies. While the Chiefs moved first, every other QB-needy team has also pounced. The Raiders snagged Matt Flynn, the Cardinals in turn got Carson Palmer. Mike Vick was hurriedly (and expensively) re-signed. The Bills grabbed Kevin Kolb and the Jets took David Garrard. Matt Cassel, who we all know to be of the highest caliber of quarterback, was on the market for just a few hours before signing a new deal with Minnesota to compete with their starter. Heck, even 37-year-old Matt Hasselbeck was out there for less than 24 hours before getting another job.

Of course, many of these QB-hungry teams will likely draft quarterbacks later this month as well, but these moves are still very telling. Most years, veteran quarterbacks sit out on the open market for most of the spring and even summer before getting snagged for backup and compete-to-start positions. Most teams want to at least see how the draft shakes out before going after those guys, because, most years, there are plenty of good QB prospects and teams know that those veteran options will still be there after the picks have been made.

This year, we’ve seen the opposite market reaction. There has been a total run on veteran signal-callers BEFORE the draft, which means that QB-needy teams see little value in the draft at that position and are trying to fill their holes now with little faith that they are going to get a guy who would have the potential to compete for a starting position this year.

This, coupled with the fact that every talent evaluator I respect says there are no 1st-round quarterbacks this year, tells you a lot about Geno’s value as a prospect and why it would be foolhardy to take him at 1st overall.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The second big reason I have moved on from my Geno obsession is that I have finally come around to the guys that Dorsey and Reid have added in Alex Smith and Chase Daniel. I am very excited to see what Reid can do with Smith, who is the type of quarterback that Reid’s offense is meant for (unlike McNabb and Vick). Meanwhile, I think Daniel is a good grab for a backup especially because he is young and has a lot of upside.

If you need more convincing on Smith, I suggest reading this and this by our pals over at Arrowhead Pride. If you’re still not convinced, please proceed to blast me in the comments section as usual.

Tags: Alex Smith Bandwagon Draft Geno Smith

  • http://www.facebook.com/ryan.pinczer Ryan Pinczer

    go

  • Jason

    didn’t even read the article, the title said it all. I have two words for you, THANK GOD.

  • Tom Sparks

    NICK, nick, nick, Nicholas!!!
    You will not get any blasting from me, unless you mean blasting the horn of SANITY to the Chiefs Kingdom!
    I have been preaching the same message that you just, so rightfully, posted in this Blog! Finally, a voice of reason from a Blogger I respect from AA……. ; ^{ )>
    I am not sure Patty or Ladner are reformed yet, but you just nailed it, buddy! If I see one more nonsensical comment from the ever HO, man-lover, promoter, of Geno Smith; Leno Sandcastle, I am going to wonder if he really is a Faider Mole sent to decieve and try to put a Black Eye on Chiefs Kingdom!
    We selected the RIGHT Smith! And he is MUCH better than any of the other QB’s that have been cherry picked by trade or through Free Agency.
    I trust our new GM/HC, more than any other duo we have had in a LONG time! We, as Chiefs FANS should be giving Clark Hunt kudos, for pulling off this coup. He IS finally getting it, also, IMHO. These two guys are the real deal. I have had respect for both of them, even though I am a rabid-as-they-get CHIEFS FAN. That’s because I genuinely LOVE the game of NFL Football! Period•.
    And, damn it, Alex Smith is/was a BACKUP QB! The same thing happen when Brady replaced Bledsoe in NE!
    It’s not that unusual, as you would think, because you don’t know what kind of Field General you have, until you send him into battle. Right or Wrong, on this thought?
    It was different with Bledsoe, as he was in the December of his career, Alex Smith is in his PRIME!
    I have always enjoyed reading your Articles, as I am homebound on disability and suffer from Chronic Pain, constantly…… Narcotics only take the sharp edge off my pain, but great articles, written by REAL Chiefs Fans, help relieve it even more!
    Nick, you are a breath of fresh air that will, hopefully, help other KC Genolians BURN down the bandwagon!

    • micah stephenson

      You said the same thing wen we got Cassel from NE. Just make sure you have as much to say when Alex is a bust in kc.

      • Tom Sparks

        How the hell do you know? You have changed your name, since I have had this APP at least once, and I don’t trust you, anyway. So don’t put words in my mouth, moron!
        I think a lot of people were optomistic, when PEE-Ole’ brought in, I thought we gave up WAY TOO MUCH on a one year wonder!
        Alex Smith is a lot more of a proven commodity at QB!
        Just keep thinking the Chiefs are idiots for NOT choosing, your IDOL, Geno and I’ll have the last laugh, you witless whiner!

        • micah stephenson

          Wow! A mike mayock qoute and name calling? That doesnt even warrent a response!

      • Tom Sparks

        One more thing, Geno Jr.! Here is what I was referring to, when stating Geno was not even rated a top 20 pick.
        Here your EVIDENCE, from a newly posted article on Fansided about rating your childhood HERO, mole:

        Likewise, Mike Mayock said this about Geno Smith and the whole 2013 quarterback draft class:
        “I couldn’t take Geno Smith in the top 10, probably (not) the top 20,” he said. “I can’t stand this whole quarterback class.”

        Maybe, you should get a REAL life and learn HOW to read more?

        • micah stephenson

          Start making yo own mind up instead of going wit wat somebody else tells you. F**k Mike Mayock!

    • Carlos Nevarez

      Alex Smith isn’t a back up QB. He’s a starter that.got hurt. Don’t.lump him in with Green and Bono please…

      • Tom Sparks

        I was being sarcastic, Carlos. I have to be tricky when dealing with the Mole “Leno Sandcastle”, as he is undercover.
        I do not ever remember lumping Green & Bono together with Alex Smith? I have been an Alex Smith supporter, ever since we traded for him! Not only was he a starter, but a very good one at that!
        In saying that, don’t hate on our former QB, Trent Green. I respect him, he was a good QB for KC under Dicky V. They just could never get a D to help out our O. And Green is still a KC supporter!

  • http://www.facebook.com/genemyuk Gene Yuknis

    some of us, like myself, are late bloomers. we finally see the big picture. just think how far this organization has progressed in the past few months since last year, and all i read now is optimism and moving forward in the right direction. what a nice way to look forward to an exciting year.

    • Danny W

      The big picture is fine but what if Geno Smith turns out to be as good his upside says he could be? We’ve then failed to make a risk into a reward.

      • micah stephenson

        And you know what they say low risk low reward. High risk high reward.

  • Da Menace

    Gonna say if I should trust the NFL head office guys we are in trouble because Pioli sausage screwed up this team with his apparent lacking eye for talent. I will say that I do trust in this new regime. The offseason has really helped that. I’ve always liked AS and believe if he can get a few extra privates w our wr’s then chemistry will only make him legit for us.

    • Da Menace

      Btw I’m on the Dion Jordan bandwagon, a team can never have too many pass rushers, especially fresh ones who can rip manning apart!

      • P Heitman

        I’m 100% on the Jordan bandwagon as well.

      • Danny W

        Hey is there a sausage that rhymes with pioli or what is that?

        • Da Menace

          Haha no just sounds a bit like polish sausage

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      It’s not about looking at one GM, but the whole league. Every team minus Jacksonville (so far) that is weak at quarterback has chased down a veteran quarterback to sign pre-draft, closing up a roster spot that would normally gone to a rookie prospect and sending a signal about they think of the incoming class.

    • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

      The thing is it isnt just one GM or front office, it’s all of them…

  • Justin R Groth

    Sounds like your just trying to convince yourself that this was the right move. its fine all humans to its called rationalizing. we usually do it to explain the actions of ourselves and loved ones. for the moat part it is both harmless and useless. Unfortunately if continued could lead to delusion.

    • Derek

      ahaah THIS^ and yes that’s what everyone on this site is doing…have to say I would rather have kellen moore than chase daniel if we were looking for a back-up not named geno smith…a mistake regardless…

    • dominicscarlatti

      The Doctor is in…five cents, please!

  • P Heitman

    Standing Ovation.

  • PunjabiPete

    Im angry for no reason you suuuuuuck!

    :)

  • jimfromkcj

    Nick it is swell that some of the kool aiders are hopping off the Geno bandwagon. Mind you, there is no getting around the fact that he might end up being the QB that a lot of you thought he could be. But the fact of the matter is, that the Chief’s aren’t in the position to take the risk that he might be a bust. Just think of the fans wrath if he did bust. They would be screaming for Reid and Dorsey’s head. Heck they may be doing it if we don’t win the division this year. But, now, if we could just get you guys to the idea of trading Albert and Hali for 2 or 3 picks, I would be in hog heaven. They are a couple of screw ups that Pioli left and we need to get squared away. In Albert’s case it should have been a priorty to get him signed long term before it came to this. Same applies to Carr. In Hali’s case it was pure panic. At the time he was the only sack producer on the roster and Pioli, again was to blame by letting that occur, so he had to over pay the guy, even tho he was deficient in almost all the rest of the aspects of his position. We need to rearrange the seats on this ship called the Chief’s titanic and put the money where the production is.

    • Danny W

      Hey Jim
      I think your thoughts are very lucid all except for the Hali dislike. The guy has a motor like no other. No he doesn’t always get to the quarterback but he pressures like no other. Pressures cause turn overs just like sacks do. He does a pretty good job against the run too. His fellow players around the league seem to think he’s in the top 100 when it comes to players. He doesn’t play the pass well but I’ll take him for what he’s paid. I wouldn’t mind it if he restructured ala Tom Brady or something but trading the guy seems counter productive. What warrants him being traded in your opinion?

      • jimfromkcj

        Danny, I just don’t think you can afford that much cap space for a guy who is not progressing. Common sense tells you that the addition of Houston on the other side should have increased his sack totals. but the fact is that each of his 9 sacks cost us a million dollars and we were a 2 and 14 team. With Houston and Hali we were near the bottom in sack totals. I seem to remember reading we were something like 27th in the league. I am a firm believer in a team trading a player before they lose all value and having to let them go for nothing. That is one of Belechicks greatest strengths, choosing the right time to trade veteran players. My best advice to all fans is to never fall in love with any players. Professional sports is an entertainment and should never be taken too seriously.

        • Da Menace

          Great retort, I really see your point about paying top monies to a fella who isn’t progressing..especially w Houston on the other side. That was the main reason I would like to see D Jordan picked. A fresh Hali could help that sack total a ton not to mention what the others could do as well.

        • KCPauly

          Well, Jim, your logic is a bit flawed, as it is hard to sack the QB, when the team is always leading and only hands the ball off, if we actually score some points so the other team has to actually throw the ball you will see the sacks go up

    • micah stephenson

      If Chiefs drafted Geno and he was a bust alot of fans wudnt b mad becus a least they are trying. You cant hit a homerun if you scared to swing and miss. You cant win if you dont play.

  • http://twitter.com/EdMaldo1 Don Quijote

    Where’s Micah?

    • micah stephenson

      Sorry Im late. I like to make an entrance! Lol

  • Danny W

    NAC
    Very well thought out article. You’re a very talented writer bro. When you say you are off of the Geno Bandwagon does that mean you don’t think he will succeed or are you just convinced that the safe decision was the proper decision in this case or both? Thanks for any response I know you’re across the pond slamming some tea and with those crazy eruo babes so thanks for taking time to write.

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      I’m off the Chiefs-taking-Geno-#1 bandwagon. I still wish him well (except if the Raiders draft him) and think he will do well in this league. But, when I see that the opinions of the vast majority of professional people smarter than me in this league disagreeing, I take note. Also, if the Chiefs do stun us all and take him at the top of the draft, I will be excited to see what he can do for us. But I just don’t think that’s likely or necessarily warranted at this point. This regime has set up Alex Smith to be our quarterback for now and the near future. Chase Daniel is a younger guy they are going to develop and may push Smith. I just don’t see them taking a QB #1 this year when they could get much greater value for that pick.

      • micah stephenson

        Alex Smith and Chase Daniels????? O we been set up again!!! And its not for sucess! Its for the oke doke!

  • ArrowFan

    First off as a QB he did dominate in college. WV as team did not. Second he will be drafted top ten even top five so your he is not worthy argument is mute as well. However I do agree that we do not need him on our team right now. I just hope we are not regreting passing on him becuse we need him in a year or two and he is tearing it up for someone else.

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      After all the moves that have happened in the league in the last couple weeks I doubt he goes top 5 or top 10 anymore. It’s looking increasingly likely he drops to the bottom of the first for someone who trades up. I could be wrong, but that’s what I’m seeing.

      • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

        How would you feel if we traded back into the first to take him at say 20-25 range if he slipped that far. I dont know if we have the picks to do it, but how would you feel about that?

        • NicholasAlanClayton

          Currently, we don’t have a 2nd round pick, which means it would be basically impossible and require at least one future 1st-round pick. That, I would not be in favor of. If we trade Albert, we could use the pick we get for him for that purpose, but even that I wouldn’t really be in favor of. This just isn’t the year to get a QB. We’ll have more options next year with a better class.

          • micah stephenson

            Of corse we do. Hav more options next yr that is. When it comes to drafting a 1st rd QB or winning a playoff game its ALWAYS wait till next yr.

        • micah stephenson

          These haters dont want to see him on the team period.

      • ArrowFan

        All this movement for everyone else cast offs or back ups is just insurance. Other than Palmer there is not one of the QB’s that where picked up last week that can give a team any assurance at all. Therefore some if not two or three someones would love to still have Geno with there #1 pick.

  • dioxintribe

    Chiefs have been playing a winning hand this off-season and they control the river card. Joeckel isn’t a sexy #1 pick, but he is the BEST pick for their plan. I wouldn’t bet that Dorsey and Reid are checking blogs for insight. But I like what you said about Smith being the type of quarterback for Reid’s offense. I thought this as soon as he became coach.

    • micah stephenson

      I think Geno is even better for Rieds offense

      • David Fritch

        Even if this is true he’s several years away from mastering his potential. The West Coast offense is a lot to learn in such a short time.

  • berttheclock

    Whatever they are putting in the water in Tbilisi, keep drinking it, Nicholas.

    • micah stephenson

      Wateva they lacing his weed wit over thur got him all messed up.

  • http://twitter.com/RusselAzul Russel Azul

    This is the best article I’ve read on here. Finally someone who’s being rational. I also wanted Geno Smith, bad. BUT when every NFL team is scrambling to fill their starting roles with mediocre backups (Kolb, Cassel, Flynn, Palmer, Garrard, etc) that is a tell tale sign that they all looked at GENO SMITH, and said “he cannot be a starting QB in this league”

    Think about it, when even BUFFALO refuses to take a chance on Geno, that really is saying something. I know we all wanted to see Geno in a Chiefs jersey and become a RG3 or Cam, but that simply isnt the case. If it were, Reid and Dorsey would be drafting him #1.

    • micah stephenson

      They are scrambling becuse 6 different teams cant all have 1 GENO SMITH!

  • micah stephenson

    Good! I was running out of elbow room anyway. When Geno starts tearing it up. You will b back on the bandwagon.

  • micah stephenson

    Im not jumping off the bandwagon till you can covince me how a QB that only passed for 3144 yards and 18 tds in his BEST seasons with a superbowl caliber surrounding cast and has reached his ceiling is gon come to a 2 win team with less talent a do better.

  • Stacy D. Smith

    Geno’s collegiate career was highly efficient and pretty damn dominant.
    All of the talking heads have him going Top 10 now.

    • Jim Harper

      Come on now Stacy. ALL the talking heads?Kiper is the only one that I have seen predicting he goes top 10 and he even qualifies that by saying it is a reach. McShay does not have any QB’s going in the 1st round.

      • Stacy D. Smith

        Okay…”Most” of them.

        • Jim Harper

          LOL

          • David Fritch

            Ya and Kiper’s an idiot too, I can’t stand that guy

  • Carlos Nevarez

    Forget about Geno already. I like the big nasties Chance Warmack and Eric Fisher. They play with nastiness which is something I think the Chiefs mistakenly shy against. If not them then Dion, or WR Patterson or Vollmer .

  • KCPauly

    QB, is taken care of now like it or not…we will not get Geno forget about it, Stanzi & Tanney will battle for the last spot and hopefully Tanney will win it, then it is over, Smith, Daniels, And Tanney will be the only QB’s this year let’s move on

  • Chief Hokie

    Booo, traitor ;)