Chiefs QB Evaluations: Geno V. Aaron V. Donovan


Now that the big “secret” is out that the Chiefs are bringing in Geno Smith for an “official” visit and evaluation, it’s time to take a look at a few comparables. Like, how does Geno’s West Virginia career stack up against Donovan McNabb’s Syracuse career and or Aaron Rodgers time in a Cal uni?

In Andy Reid’s first year as the Philadelphia Eagles’ head coach he drafted QB Donovan McNabb with the 2nd pick in 1999. In 2005, while with the Green Bay Packers, the K.C. Chiefs new GM John Dorsey helped draft reigning NFL QB king Aaron Rodgers with the 25th pick.

These two QBs are players that Reid and Dorsey have already drafted, so let’s compare their college careers to that of Geno Smith’s.

In the chart above, it shows a comparison of each QBs interception percentage offered by totalfootballstats.com. Donovan McNabb’s interception percentage (the total percentage of interceptions out of all passes thrown) was 3.4%. Aaron Rodgers interception percentage was 6.6%. However, Geno Smith’s interception percentage was only 1.4%.

Geno Smith’s passer efficiency rating clearly stands out over both McNabb’s and Rodger’s as well. With a higher volume of pass attempts you’d expect Geno Smith (1,465) to have more INTs but, he in fact, has less. A lot less.

A statistic that’s frequently used to assess a QBs value is their TD to INT ratio. Below you can see how Geno Smith has fared against both Aaron Rodgers and Donovan McNabb.

Even though Geno Smith played two more years of college ball, the percentage of TDs he’s thrown compared to INTs is significantly better than Aaron Rodgers who many now believe is the best QB in the NFL.

Normally, when a college QB plays during his freshman and sophomore years, the percentage of INTs is much higher, consequently skewing their overall statistics but, not in Geno Smith’s case. During Geno’s two first seasons his TD to INT ratio was 25 to 8 (a 75.8 TD%). McNabb’s was 35 and 15 (70% TD%) and Rodgers sophomore year was 19 and 5 (79.1%).

Geno Smith has maintained a TD-INT ratio percentage of greater than 80% for three plus college seasons which speaks positively about his consistency. Consistency… which many people question yet, remains unmatched by either Donvan McNabb or Aaron Rodgers.

Below you’ll find a chart outlining many of the other critical statistic that QBs are typically measured by.

Although Geno Smith played the same number of years in college as Donovan McNabb, he had 3,000+ more yards passing. Geno threw for twice as many yards in college as Aaron Rodgers and more than twice as many TDs. Mr. Smith was so prolific on the university gridiron that he had 20 more completions than Donovan McNabb had passing attempts. McNabb played in 45 games for the Orangemen. Geno Smith played in 44 for the Mountaineers. Aaron Rodger, 25 for the Golden Bears.

Geno Smith’s college completion percentage is 9.3% higher than Donovan McNabb’s and 3.6% better than Aaron Rodgers.

When Andy Reid drafted Donovan McNabb in 1999 he was getting a running QB. Reid has a history of corralling QB’s who can tool (see Michael Vick). McNabb was said to run a 40 time below 4.40. Reid knows the advantages of having a QB who possesses fleet feet. The shifty Rodgers on the other hand ran a 4.71 but, is considered one of the hardest QBs to corner in the backfield. Geno Smith’s lowest time was 4.52 which was fastest among QB prospects this year and also gives him a higher degree of escapability. A trait Reid values.

Donovan McNabb’s 19 rushing TDs are impressive but nothing like Colin Kaepernick’s 59 rushing TDs. The difference for McNabb is that he has always had such a stout and stocky build that he could hand out as much punishment as receive it. Both Aaron Rodgers and Geno Smith are elusive but, neither compares when it comes to running for a score like McNabb.

If GM John Dorsey and head coach Andy Reid can be party to drafting Donovan McNabb and Aaron Rodgers, why can’t they swing another deal to bring in a college QB, that for the most part, has outperformed these marquee players they’ve already drafted?

Draw whatever other conclusions you want to from these charts but, it’s clear once again that Geno Smith is being grossly underestimated… no matter whose tool you use to evaluate or compare him.

I’m still hoping the Chief brass sees enough to like, to ask Geno Smith into the Chiefs family on draft day.

What do you think Addict? A few too many Kamikaze’s?

Tags: KC Chiefs

  • Priest4Prez

    Damn….now I want Geno again. Here I was getting over it but now I’ve been pulled back in. Geno Smith Number one pick!! Forget the Jags, Bills, yadda yadda yadda. We need him

    • redchiefs

      Yep, I’m sold!

    • ladner morse

      It’s the Geno Vortex.. you can get sucked back in soooo easily.

  • Shane

    Where would he fit with Smith and Daniels coming in and the moneys the Chiefs are paying them? Is it to build the value of Geno so we can get more picks for the trade or are they really thinking about really picking him?

    • ladner morse

      Don’t forget, the most tradeable position player on the field is the QB. If Geno turns out to be golden… Alex Smith becomes tradeabale and should still bring a pretty penny anytime in the next year. If Alex Smith excels but, Geno Smith flashes just a little… then Geno can become the moveable piece. Either way, the Chiefs can hedge their bets best by drafting the highest commodity of worth in the league… a “possible” franchise QB.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pat.combs.420 Pat Combs

    Preist you stole the words from my mouth! Draft Geno let him sit for one year and then let him rip! Alex can be traded for something next year.

    • elly violette

      Forget about trading Geno in a year. If he’s good trade Alex in a year!!!!!

      • ladner morse

        I think that’s what they were saying. And … I’m exactly in favor of that. Let him take the reigns for a year.. .which should be good with Reid training him… then get good value for him.. .finish the re-building of the OL.. .and presto — Super Bowl. :)

  • Chiefsninja

    Ughhhh, reading something like this makes me want to jump back on board with taking Geno but I just don’t understand how/why we would spend the money we did on Chase Daniel if we still planned on taking a QB #1 overall. That’s a lot of money and draft picks (either the #1 overall or if he beats out AS it’s a 2nd round pick) to be sitting on the bench….

    • http://www.facebook.com/Iznontek Ian French

      It’s the most important position in the League, so I don’t think it would be overspending in this case, just investing heavily, which I like. No good QBs = Chiefs 2012.

      • elly violette

        Right… having NO good QBs in 2012 doesn’t means we only have to have 2 in 2013. Why not stock up on them… 3 sounds great to me.

        • micah stephenson

          Sounds good to me! :)

        • ladner morse

          I know… why not get a half a dozen good QBs then the Chiefs could be the QB brokerage firm for the rest of the league. If anyone could pull it off it is Reid and Dorsey.

  • Chris Foosman

    Geno played in a conference that is famous for giving QBs huge numbers. McNabb played in the Big East when it had national championship quality competition. Rodgers did the same in the PAC 10. I think the comparison is interesting, but it ends up being more a comparison of conference standing, especially when you consider how high the other two were in the Heisman voting and how low Geno finished. If college greatness was a sign of pro-potential, Tim Tebow would be the greatest pro passer in history.

    • Lenny Lieurance

      Famous for giving up big numbers eh? So then who put up numbers like Geno then? Who else completed 70% of their passes? Then you say college greatness means nothing, but you mention heisman voting? Seriously?

      • Chris Foosman

        Seth Doege. The mighty Seth Doege. I haven’t googled the rest, but I’m pretty sure they’ve all got big numbers. By your estimation that is worth the 1st round pick too.

        • Lenny Lieurance

          Doege is a good point, what I should have said is that Geno’s film and career set him apart from the Doege type qbs. That is to say, Geno still had great numbers his two years in a pro style offense, and even in a similar o last year Geno threw deep way more than whats typical in an air raid type offense, and still completed 70%.

          • Chris Foosman

            Geno has been in the spread or the air raid offenses his whole college career. The one year he completed over 70% he was in roughly the same system as Doege. Follow Lenny! Draft Doege!

          • ladner morse

            Geno Smith’s own words, “I’ve played in three different systems in college.”

            From a USA Today interview.

            http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2013/02/22/geno-smith-read-option/1939597/

          • Chris Foosman

            It’s nice he said that. West Virginia had Jeff Mullen as offensive coordinator from 2008-10. He had Dana Holgorsen running the air raid the last two years. Please do research on your own rather than requiring me to waste my time…

          • ladner morse

            No one asked you to do anything.

            But, your comments haven’t proven that what Geno Smith said was untrue. Not sure why you want to pass off “common knowledge” for research either.

          • Chris Foosman

            Yes you did, because you can’t verify what he said, just that he said it. If we are to continue this conversation I have to lay something that is a simple google search on you. As for the burden of proof, am I the idiot that got offended because someone on the Internet laid the smack down on a little blog I wrote based on common knowledge? Is this my blog? Do I gain anything by doing your research for you? I would suggest proving me wrong is where you should go from here, but you can’t. I laid some easily verifiable fact down and put an opinion that is in line with it alongside it. So if you don’t like it, go write blogs to troll elsewhere.

          • ladner morse

            Firstly, I’m not a troll. No need for name calling. I wrote the article we’re all taking about now. I’ve been writing for Arrowhead Addict for a couple of years and it took more than a little research… as do many of my pieces. Saying that you are doing MY research would be less than accurate.

            It looks to me like you haven’t verified any of “your” information yet. I gave you a link but, you haven’t given me anything like that. Of course… you don’t HAVE to but, you are the one contesting my comments. So, it would seem that the burden of proof is on your shoulders.

            My goal is to have a friendly conversation and debate our points of view. I’ve admitted to being wrong right here on this site before. I have no vested interest in being “right.” just to prove someone else wrong… but, I haven’t heard you say anything yet that indicates Geno Smith’s accomplishments should be minimized. Certainly not because he ran a certain system for an extended period of years. Which I don’t believe he did. If a USA Today article is not enough for you… it’s hard to say what will be.

            Could I be wrong? Sure. If you want to do some research to prove me wrong… it’s up to you… but I never asked you to. It just comes with the territory when you attempt to debate.

          • Chris Foosman

            That’s why I wrote “write blogs to troll elsewhere.” You want to verify my facts? Google the names I gave you and look at their positions for the years I gave. Most bloggers don’t want to send traffic elsewhere. There is no one page with a list of offensive coordinators for West Virginia. The only other fact I have offered up is the Texas Tech QB getting over 70% completions. Honestly, I’m beating you at this on my phone, so I figured you could save me the trouble of navigating all this and copy-pasting on an iPhone. I will keep in mind in the future that easily obtainable information needs to be referenced when I read something that doesn’t sit right with me. I will also remember that the policy of Arrowhead Addict is complete Nazi style goose stepping agreement or you will be harangued to produce links to easily obtainable information. I even listed the coordinators’ NAMES! Quit trolling.

          • Darkwolf1414

            You are not beating ANYONE and ANYTHING. If you want to debate, and be taken seriously, you have to supply links to where you get your info. Pulling “facts” out of the air doesn’t fly. As Ladner said, you don’t HAVE to provide proof but most people who act like they have “won” a debate provide sources to support their opinions. You have shown nothing other than you think you know something but can’t prove it.

            How exactly can the author of an article be trolling? That’s what you are doing. Somehow we are supposed to believe that you really should be an NFL GM although you’re a bagger at the grocery store.

          • Chris Foosman

            The problem is I have answered all arguments with more facts, or to call into question the “facts” presented. When you guys are presented by a more reasoned argument, YOU are the ones who shout me down and fail to admit that. I’m sorry, you do not win. At most you can say “I admit your facts are true, I just don’t agree with your analysis.”

          • Lyle Graversen

            Trolling is name calling and getting confrontational not stating an opinion. Your opinions and arguments are always welcome here, but if someone doesn’t agree with you there is no need to attack them.

          • KCMikeG

            He obviously has nothing better to do than be egotistical, insulting and defensive when asked to support his opinion with some substantiation – you know like what he is criticizing Ladner for providing. He says he doesn’t have time to present his information (excuse) because it isn’t all on one website (excuse) yet has time to make fourteen insulting posts (contradiction), claims the info is easily accessible (contradiction didn’t he just say it was too hard for him?), whines that he doesn’t have to provide supporting info (excuse), claims to be suffering a Nazi like persecution (insecurity/paranoia) and declares himself the winner of some imaginary contest he was in. Wow ego much? Hilarious that he is calling a regular contributor who wrote the article he is dismissing with arrogance a troll – some people just can’t be helped and our time is better spent on more productive pursuits.

          • Chris Foosman

            Hit button “Siri, google Texas Tech quarterback statistics 2012.” Click on button. “Hmmm, let me copy paste this name to make sure it’s right so they can google it.”

            And you won troll of the year.

          • KCMikeG

            That must make you President Troll if you are handing out the awards. But I must decline as I could never even aspire to claim the prize with such talented experts as yourself in the game. Weren’t you just declaring your win over the writer of this post. Look in the mirror and you will find the troll you speak of so often. Sorry that supporting your opinion is such an arduous, complex task.

          • Chris Foosman

            I was surprised to see how you did not take on anyone I sarcastically pointed out had no links. Oh wait, I’m not oh King Troll.

          • Chris Foosman

            Annnnnd that’s what this guy is doing. If you state other facts then you are not actually discussing and he continues to go round and round when the facts are there. If these stats make Geno great, we need Doege. He’s cheaper and has the same stats, even the problem with the crappy d. If I were you, I’d get rid of him.

          • elly violette

            “Nazi style goose stepping.” ???

          • http://www.arrowheadaddict.com Patrick Allen

            Pretty much every message board anywhere in which people are having debate, people provide examples to back up their facts. Like, actual sources. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but if you are trying to convinces, you’ll have to do better than opinion.

          • Chris Foosman

            Says the guy who calls people that disagree a troll…

          • KCMikeG

            Could have sworn that was your modus operandi. You end nearly all of your posts by calling the person you are responding to by calling them a troll. Get some help. The troll you fear is in your mirror.

          • Chris Foosman

            You’re out of your element here Michael. Wandering into a conversation like a child. Patrick has a problem with people who also question his stance, like so many here. Stop trolling.

          • KCMikeG

            You have no clue about my element and no place questioning my maturity by calling names. I have questioned Paddy’s stance and had numerous debates on topics without calling each other a troll. Grow up.

          • KCMikeG

            You have no clue about my element as with most every topic you have tried in vain to respond to yet pat yourself on the back for your imagined victories. I have questioned Paddy’s stance and had numerous debates on topics without calling each other a troll. Grow up. Get some help.

          • Darkwolf1414

            My sentiments exactly.

          • elly violette

            You’re trying to make a point that Doege should be considered as much as Geno? You’re not making much sense. Maybe I don’t get it but, no one has heard of this guy Doege and Geno is not simply being considered a number one pick because of false hype. Are you saying Geno is a bunch of hype? If so … I don’t see it. Come on… 11,662 yards passing with 98 TDs and only 21 INTs? You think that’s all hype?

          • Chris Foosman

            You’re making the case for Doege as he has all the things you are claiming make Geno a great QB. The problem with arguments is that they are applied. Yours say we should draft Doege and get a great QB. We can probably get him in a later round too!

          • elly violette

            So why hasn’t anyone hear of him?

          • Chris Foosman

            Because no one believes anything you said has any relevance on what makes a good QB in the NFL. What’s funny is that you’re essentially stating all the stuff you wrote before this was bunk. That you don’t understand this is really funny, and I’m doing everything in my power from giving you a clinical diagnosis.

          • KCMikeG

            Easy Dr. Ego. I’m sure we can’t afford your fantasy charges for an imaginary “diagnosis”.

            Doege has all the things that make Geno great – not. Maybe if you weren’t so limited in your access to multiple websites by your IPhone you would know that Geno had 29 more TD’s and 5 fewer INT’s. Doege threw 278 less pass attempts, had 169 fewer completions, had lower Y/A & AY/A & completion % and only started two years vs for 3 years by Geno who’s play improved every year. Maybe those are the facts that have him ranked as the #21 QB instead of being #1 like Geno. Now take your medicine and there’s no charge for the consult.

          • Chris Foosman

            Maybe those 278 more attempts led to those 29 more TDs. The point was the yardage combined with passer efficiency. Geno also had better offensive talent around him. Also, I’m going to need a link for that information.

          • KCMikeG

            Maybe – NOT. No link required. Let me do the math to let the air out of your maybe. At the rate of TD/A the additional # of TD’s for Doege with 278 more attempts would have only been 16 more still 13 LESS TD’s than Geno IF he had even been able to keep up his lower conversion ratio. Plus he would have had 6-7 more INT’s at his higher ratio there leaving him with 32 INT’s vs only 21 for Geno. That is why he is the #21 ranked QB and Geno is #1. Reality check. WV was #8 offense with 5.36 more points/game scored than TT at #17. Don’t overlook the fact that the WV defense was #98 giving up 7.14 more points/game than TT was at #53. TT only won one more game than WV and was 4-5 in the Big 12 just like WV.

          • Chris Foosman

            Hey pot, this is kettle. Where’s the link?

          • KCMikeG

            No link required. Just do the math. Geno had 98TD/1465A and 21int/1465A vs Doege’s much poorer performance of 69TD/1187A and 26int’s/1187A. Now multiply by 278 more attempts and Voila! doege could have had 16 more TD’s and 6.08 more INT’s.
            The nerve of some people not being willing, able and insulted by the request to support a comment yet has no issue asking the for same.

          • Chris Foosman

            Again, I gave the raw data without links. Things like “This guy was his coordinator for these years” “this guy had an average of this” but you don’t think that was good enough. Again, stop trolling and hold yourself to your own standards.

          • KCMikeG

            I respond to your request for the source and showed you the math and you don’t address it because it blows holes in your opinion. Tough day for you. Later.

          • Chris Foosman

            Also, link always required since you demand the same of me when I give actual facts. Just so you know, you brushed aside the quality of players around them. Geno had 2 receivers account for 68% (rounded) of yardage. Doege had his top 2 account for 45% (rounded). Clearly Doege was passing the ball around while Geno was benefiting from having two really good receivers. That’s only because I actually made that argument when I said “Geno also had better offensive talent around him.” Thanks for trolling and not taking on the argument…

          • KCMikeG

            I never demanded anything from you except that we all try to be more respectful for the person who wrote the post. I also have addressed everything you said but you weren’t capable of understanding or didn’t take the time to read my response. So Deoge had more targets and that makes him better than Geno who had only two? You can spin it any way you want but bottom line is Doege is ranked where he is because of the QB he is. TD’s win games and Int’s lose games and he is not in Geno’s league in either so make all the excuses w/o links all you want – it doesn’t change the reality of Geno #1 and Doege #21 QB in the draft rankings.

            And here you are again asking for a link that you didn’t provide yourself and were offend to the point of needing to attack.

            I included the information on the offensive and defensive performances to dispute your “better offensive players around him” opinion.The WV offense was only marginally better than TT. If he had such better players why didn’t they win more games? Or is it that in WV it was the players but in TT it was Doege? I have never seen anyone quite as confused/confident and playing both sides of a topic. I’ll conclude your effort in futility with my prediction that you are a TT Homer who is the real troll here.

          • Chris Foosman

            Now you’re just delusional. You actually made fun of me for using siri to google search and pointing out that its hard to copy and paste multiple things back and forth. “Sorry that supporting your opinion is such an arduous, complex task.”

            Second, if Geno’s offense was only marginally better than Doege’s its because Geno couldn’t get the ball to 65% of his offense enough. Doege seems to have gotten everyone in on the game. That’s the point. His offensive output was only marginally better, but he had much more explosive players around him.

            If you can’t understand simple arguments, please troll elsewhere.

          • Chris Foosman

            Also, the reality is that all the arguments being made about why Geno is great based on college output stack up pretty evenly with Doege based on the numbers. That’s it. Nuff said. There’s an intangibles factor. Obviously Geno is more talented, or he wouldn’t be anywhere near the top of the board. My only issue is I don’t think he’s a lock. At all. If the talent evaluators think he’s not worth it I agree. The dude is not Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning. He’s somewhere between Jamarcus Russell and Joe Flacco. This is the only site I know where you have to goose step in line or you’re a troll. I provide evidence, I list problems with the article writer’s logic based on that evidence, and somehow I’M the troll while some jackass who thought I should always post links tells me he doesn’t have to abide by his own rules, but he’s not a troll because he toes the party line.

          • KCMikeG

            If you can’t understand the simple facts that Geno with 98TD’s and 21 Int’s is vastly better than Doege with 69 TD’s and 26 Int’s I can’t help you. Argue with me and ignore every mock draft ranking and talking head and/or expert’s opinion all you want. None of them are comparing the two just you in your own little world. Now that’s delusional. Maybe you should look up the meaning of troll so you could use it appropriately rather than just repeating it endlessly.

          • Chris Foosman

            But look at the article. It’s comparing Geno to McNabb and Rodgers. Doege’s numbers are better than theirs! PROVING my initial point! Thanks stupid troll! Now go look in the mirror and see if trolls have a reflection!

          • KCMikeG

            Do they because you should know as you are the one display the troll like behavior. More maturity on display calling names. What are you a 12 year old. It is obvious you can’t comprehend statistical comparisons like 98TD’s and 21 Int’s is vastly better than Doege with 69 TD’s and 26 Int’s. I can’t help you any further.

          • Chris Foosman

            If you can’t understand that the Big 12 overhyped stats when a dude we both agree is marginal, at best, had 69 TDs, then I’m just praying you never reproduce for humanity’s sake. Also, another sign of college not being an indicator of pro-goodness, Joe Flacco. I’m going to pull an Arrowhead Addict and ask you what ever happened to the guy who beat him out in Pittsburgh. Must be an MVP type QB who led his team to numerous victories!

          • elly violette

            I looked him up on nfldraftsocout.com… and maybe it’s because he rates as the 371st best prospect.

        • ladner morse

          No, Doege is not a good point.. .he played at Texas Tech and was a system QB and their were many others who succeeded in that system too. Geno played in three different systems while at WVU so no one should argue he was a system guy too.

          • Chris Foosman

            Doege played in the air raid system, just like Geno did his last two years. I’d say its a great comparison. That’s only because I actually know things about football though…

          • Darkwolf1414

            Nothing you have ever said on here makes me believe you know anything about football. We’re supposed to take your word for it, I suppose? Ladner has at least put up charts showing the stats, articles and interviews. It’s called backing up an argument. You blather about knowing this and that. Show facts, articles, websites or ANYTHING that shows your diarrhea of posts are accurate.

          • Chris Foosman

            Obviously you haven’t read all I’ve posted or how I’ve answered the arguments of him and others with facts like offensive coordinator names and names of those who have done similar things. This is also a discussion board, not my original post on a peer reviewed article.

          • Chris Foosman

            And if anyone on here does not like having this award winning analysis laid down on them, they can feel free to not read. Does not hurt my feelings at all.

          • Darkwolf1414

            Very amusing

          • KCMikeG

            That goes for you too but you seem to only be able to dish not receive.

          • KCMikeG

            Too bad you don’t know much about respect.

          • Chris Foosman

            Oh I do, I was called a troll by a contributor on Arrowhead Addict for daring to step out of line and not saying “I agree!” Now it’s apparently an ad hominem. Nice.

      • William Campbell

        Your right you sure cn tell how good a qb will be by his stats but the completion percentage is the most important.. hmmm… who hold the college record for completion percentage in a season? Is it peyton manning? How bout Eli manning? Maybe it was Aaron Rodgers? No? How bout the next great on in Andrew luck? Or maybey Joe Montana? No no no wrong its colt McCoy yeah colt McCoy also the winnigest qb in college hiatory

    • ladner morse

      At no time in Tebow’s college career… did anyone think his game would translate to the pro game. You’re not comparing Tebow to Geno are you?

      The comparison between Geno and these other two is not so much about “conference” as it is Reid and Dorsey. IOW… is it possible to get a glimpse of their thinking when they selected these players in the draft… and could they see anything in common or redeemable in this current possible choice? THAT’S the comparison.

      In 1998, there was not a team in the Big East with less than four losses. Not exactly BCS champ material. Aaron Rodgerrs Cal team was 3-9 in 2004 and the PAC-12 winner was Stanford who had two losses and was not involved in the BCS championship either.

      • Chris Foosman

        No one… Except Jon Gruden and the coach of the Broncos. I know the comparison is hyperbole, but it has truth in it. Many qb’s put up huge numbers in college and never pan out. That’s why I pointed out how he flamed out in Heisman voting. The wide open era of college FB is just beginning, and these other two played in more conventional offenses, but voters saw them as far better than Geno. There’s a reason.

        • ladner morse

          Just like Aaron Rodgers Cal defense flamed out on him in 2004… Geno’s 2012 defense flamed out. Sometimes you have to step back and take a look at the overall career — all years — all games — all performances — everything. That’s why all the numbers at the end of the day are helpful. I’m in no way saying that Geno Smith is a lock to succeed but short of drafting Andrew Luck or RGIII, the Chiefs would be just as well off taking Geno as they would taking anyone at this point… and consequently, why not take a possible star who HAS performed and offers a high career upside.

          • Chris Foosman

            I just don’t agree that he’s done anything to prove he’s a lock. We also have a pretty talented team. I’m just worried this is going to turn into a Matt Cassel midway through year two. I trust the talent evaluators on this one if they choose not to draft him.

          • elly violette

            I think Morse already said he’s not saying Geno is a “lock”… I don’t think anyone is saying that. I’m more concerned that ALEX SMITH is the MATT CASSEL you’re worried about.

          • http://www.facebook.com/Iznontek Ian French

            So then you would also trust our talent evaluators if they decided draft Geno?

          • Chris Foosman

            I’ve said that from the beginning. I just don’t think the case is as clear cut as many (all the idiots replying to my original post without admitting how genius my point is) would have you believe.

          • KCMikeG

            Proof? How about Just a 71% completion rate, 163 QB rating, improving stats every year and a 4TD to 1 INT ratio against many of the same team RGIII put up similar numbers against. Geno did this on a team with a horrible defense that put the game in his hands. He put up ridiculous numbers and his D still found a way to give up more.

      • jimfromkcj

        Well, if you are going to go with stats, Tebow has taken a team to the playoffs and won a playoff game. When Geno has done so, then it would be more fitting to have this discussion.

        • ladner morse

          By then it will be too late. :)

    • ArrowFan

      I say that if his team could play D, they would have won the national championship this past year.

      • elly violette

        Yes, why can’t fans see this simple fact. If Geno’s defense had helped him win a Natinoal Championship we’d all see him as different wouldn’t we?

    • micah stephenson

      GENO SMITH played in the big 12 just like RG3.

      • Chris Foosman

        I’ve never said a good QB couldn’t come out of the Big 12. They also had Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Vince Young and other stellar QBs who had huge numbers in college. It seems busting out from the Big 12 is the rule and making a stellar showing in the pros is the exception. By the way, you should know that you need a citation next to your statement proving that to be the case. I was just informed that is Arrowhead Addict policy.

    • KCMikeG

      And RGIII played against horrible defenses (same one Geno played against his senior year and he only played two full seasons but I heard nothing negative about that last year.

      • Chris Foosman

        You obviously weren’t listening. I listen to the TK show out of Washington, and he had expert after expert on questioning giving up all those picks for a single read offense QB from the Big 12.

        • KCMikeG

          Guess you obviously weren’t listening while the entire sports world slobbered all over RGIII. Here is one of the experts (Michael Wilbourne) you referred to schooling TK for NOT believing in RGIII being the better option for the Rams. ://newsok.com/nfl-combine-should-rams-trade-sam-bradford-and-draft-robert-griffin-iii/article/3652845 OR this article about how in love TK is with RGIII – another words eating his crow. http://www.washingtonian.com/blogs/capitalcomment/sports/washington-is-having-a-love-affair-with-robert-griffin-iii.php

          • Chris Foosman

            I’m not sure why you put links up proving me right so condescendingly. “How come no one said the same of RGIII?”
            “They did.”
            “You’re right, and here’s links to how much they like him now!”
            “Okay… Thanks?”

          • KCMikeG

            What was condescending? Using the same exact words you used? You sure know how to dish it but if someone says the exact same words you take offense.
            TK was the one questioning RGIII’s value in the 1stand then turned around and ate his crow in the 2nd link. You are obviously beyond help. Move along lost one.

          • Chris Foosman

            Again you were the one who said you “heard nothing negative” about him leading up to the draft. You’re just proving me right. I’ve never seen anyone so victorious in defeat.

          • KCMikeG

            Except in the mirror.

          • Chris Foosman

            I got news for you bud, I’ve made my case that he’s a toss up, at best. You’re the one getting mad because Seth Doege has overhyped stats as well as getting mad from this thread where you PROVED ME RIGHT.

          • KCMikeG

            Not your “bud”. Never got mad. Could care less about Doege – just like ALL of the experts. Never said he had overhyped stats, just that his stats didn’t make him comparable to Geno. Just holding you accountable for being disrespectful and wrong.

  • Chiefswatch

    Jesus could the draft be any further away. I am going to go insane. I think there is a snowball’s chance in hell that we draft Geno but hey why not fantasize? It’s pretty obvious to me: whoever draft’s Geno will have figured out thier QB problem for a while. The Chiefs though, well we are a lot less certain with Ol’ Alex Smith at the helm.

    • elly violette

      It makes me wonder what Reid’s conversation with Alex Smith was like. Did he make him a promise? He has already said he’s the starting QB. Did he tell him he won’t be drafting a QB come April?

  • nathan82

    I would still be thrilled if we drafted Geno, but I really don’t think it is happening. I believe this is all a smoke screen. You continue to make a compelling argument. I do get very tired of people saying that you should always take BPA and that Geno is not the BPA. BPA is based on a million factors which are unique to each team and we cannot pretend that we know what those factors are for Reid and Dorsey. Every year people say you should take the BPA…unless it is a guard because no one takes a guard at #1. If they are the best football player in the draft, in theory, you would draft a guard at #1. It doesn’t happen because BPA available is tied to position importance. Anyway, lets all just stop pretending that teams always take the BPA, or that they even should.

    • http://www.facebook.com/Iznontek Ian French

      Yea true, but i think people complicate the whole BPA mantra. Simply put, BPA = Player with the highest value. BPA doesn’t discriminate amongst player position, because it’s based on value alone. As long as you maximize the value of your picks effectively by choosing the most coveted player available, you then can use that player as a commodity, either keeping him on your team if needed or dealing him off for something of necessity. There is only so much talent in the league to go around so as long as your scouts get it right, you win if you pick BPA.

      • elly violette

        Yea… but do you think there is a difference between the BPA and the most skilled player.. call it the MSP. I think Joeckel may be the MSP but Geno Smith could be the BPA… becasue there are many other factors that make hiim that. Like he could be a very valuable trade chip. Not so for Joeckel.

        • http://www.facebook.com/Iznontek Ian French

          Indeed, that’s the way I see it. It’s all based on the collective demand from all the teams bargaining for players in the draft. So, yea MSP doesn’t necessarily mean BPA imo. Its all the factors that make that player valuable on the market. Supply and demand factor heavily into BPA. You can see this tactic in the way R&D are operating now. They would be foolish to take Joeckel if he’s not the most valued player in the draft and that’s exactly what Dorsey said he wouldn’t do.

      • nathan82

        Great points!

    • http://www.facebook.com/Iznontek Ian French

      I’d say that you are right that player position comes into play as a factor of a players relative value though. It’s just that you would short change yourself if you drafted a player based specifically on your team’s position needs. That’s why I think Geno is the #1 pick, simply based on his positional value, talent value, and demand in the market based on a scarcity of talent at the position.

  • oldchiefsfan

    I would do a happy jig if we drafted Geno. I have wanted him all along. This could be smoke screen or it could be a real interest. I don’t think any of us knows for sure what Reid or Dorsey are really thinking since there have been so many surprises already. I will say this…..This off season has been one helluva ride!!!

    • ladner morse

      Yes… perhaps the most enjoyable Chiefs off season ever!

  • ArrowFan

    Spot on he is the BPA.

  • Jim Harper

    As always Laddie, you make a compelling argument. I can find no fault with it, and I was absolutely on the Geno bandwagon. It is just hard for me to believe that they would take him #1 with all that has taken place with the trade for Alex and subsequent investment in Daniels. It would be far too big a waste of resources and truthfully an extremely unfair thing to do to Alex. The only way it works is if they intend to auction Geno off and do it quickly so that we still get a high #1.

    • ladner morse

      So… let’s go hypothetical here Jim… what if you’re the Chiefs brass and you get a call from the Jags for Geno (or the #1 pick) and then you get a call from Buffalo with the same intent in mind… then you get a call from another team…. and what if it’s even more than that? At what point do you say to yourself, A) we have a huge bargaining chip we must explore and cash in on or 2) maybe WE should be taking a closer look at this guy everyone around us is wanting.

      Whether or not the Chief draft him and trade him right away or hold onto him then trade him or draft him and keep him… it’s looking more and more like the best option is drafting Geno Smith.

      For one good reason or another.

      • http://www.facebook.com/Iznontek Ian French

        ^ Exactly

    • http://www.facebook.com/Iznontek Ian French

      So if the Colts decided to keep Manning should they not have drafted Luck? Even if we don’t trade Geno right away, he’s still a great pick if he pans out at the next level, bc then we have the option to pull a San Fran/Philly/etc. and keep which QB we like and trade the other for team needs.

  • jimfromkcj

    there are 2 reasons I don’t want to see the Chiefs draft Geno. #1 is that I don’t want to see and hear the koolaiders making excuses for him for 4 more years. 4 years of Cassel was enough, Thank you. and 2nd I think it will be much easier for the team to go another way if Alex doesn’t work out. there is not quite the stench to admitting that you made a mistake with a FA or a trade as there is for a failed draft pick.

    • ladner morse

      So…… it sounds like these are your choice for the next four years…..

      1) alex SMITH haters blowing up… or
      2) geno SMITH lovers giving good apology.

      Either way… your going to get all SMITH-ed out!

      • elly violette

        You know… no matter which way things go.. there are always going to be fans who drive you nuts one way or the other. It’s the nature of the beast. The most popular sport in America. The most important position on the team. The most popular sport in town…. It’s gonna happen. Emotions are running a little high this year anyway… wouldn’t you say?

      • jimfromkcj

        Laddie, going by the logic that I have read, from a lot of your fellow Geno admirers, there will always be a #1 rated QB in every draft. And that we should draft him at the #1 pick even though he is rated as the #10 to #20 player in the draft overall. Isn’t that how Pioli drafted? Always drafting a player much higher than his ranking? Or are you going to tell me that Jackson was rated #3 overall in 2009, or Berry was rated over Okung in 2010, or Baldwin over Taylor in 2011, and Poe over almost anyone in 2012? That is why we are in the fix we are in today, by overdrafting players and not doing enough evaluation beforehand. It is called wishful thinking, and that is what a lot of your post implies. Now you can start some more name calling, as I could be classiofied as a troll too.

    • micah stephenson

      Who the beep they gon go to if AND when Alex Smith dont work out and they dont have GENO SMITH on the roster? Chase Daniels?

  • elly violette

    Chart and Graphs, Charts and Graphs… how I love Charts and Graphs…
    The Chiefs should draft Geno…….. just because of your charts and graphs are so convincing.

    • ladner morse

      HA!… gud one.

  • Andrew K

    At this point in time I won’t be that upset if we don’t take Geno Smith. But I will be really pissed off if the Raiders take him at #3 and he’s lighting us up in 2014 and we are stuck with they typical mediocre Alex Smith that’s never thrown for 3,200 yards or more than 18 TD’s in a season.

    • ladner morse

      Well said. Couldn’t have said it better myself.
      If the Raiders get Geno and Geno turns out great… it will go down in Chiefs lore as the best blunder … maybe ever.

      • micah stephenson

        Noooooooooo! First oak gets Rich Gannon now possibly GENO SMITH! CHIEFS FUMBLE AGIAN! LOL.

    • Doug McD

      We might draft Geno just to keep him away from the Raiders. We would still need some other pieces if we can’t trade for picks. R&D may still have a few surprises up their sleeves for us. Can’t wait for the draft!

      I think Reid will make Alex a better player than we have seen in the past.

  • micah stephenson

    Well lets see if Dorsey and Ried are men of they word. They said they would take the best player available. With KC, Jac, Oak, Philly, Ny, Arz, & Buf all wanting GENO SMITH its ovious he is the BPA. GENO is on the rise. Luke Joke-OL is falling. :). I havnt hurd 1 thing about another team wanting to trade up for anybody but GENO SMITH. he must b the BPA. :)

    • ladner morse

      Good point. Certainly, doesn’t the fact that multiple teams are wanting him, and are willing to trade up to get him, say something about the man’s value?

    • Lyle Graversen

      The problem is that Geno probably isn’t the best player available, but the fact that he’s the best quarterback in this draft makes him the most desired player when it comes to QB needy teams. If the Chiefs feel that they have their QB they won’t place the same value on him. I’m just hoping that someone else values him enough to send some picks our way to move up and get him.

  • micah stephenson

    Anybody ever wonder what kind of season the Rams wud hav had if they drafted RG3 even tho they had Sam Bradford already?

    • elly violette

      Wow…. then they could have traded Bradford and I’ll bet there are more than a ferw fans in St. Louis wondering .. and wondering…

  • Lyle Graversen

    Great job as usual Ladner. When I went through all Geno’s plays from this past season Rodgers was the guy that I saw when Geno was on. I’m not saying he will be Rodgers. He’s inconsistent now and needs good coaching. I don’t know if he’ll be a great NFL QB or not, but I think his ceiling is Aaron Rodgers.

    • ladner morse

      Thanks Lyle. Yep… you know I think Colin Kaepernick has set a new standard as far as what a ceiling can be for an NFL QB. Now, does he need to do it for several years in a row? Yes, for sure. But, I haven’t seen anyone like him… ever. As far as Geno goes.. I mention Kaepernick because I think Geno’s ceiling is somewhere between Rodgers and Kaepernick. I think he COULD really be THAT good. For now, it’s still hard… … very hard… being a long time Chiefs fan and thinking about Geno (the premiere QB in this draft) being bypassed by the Chiefs brass.

      • elly violette

        I haven’t been a Chiefs fan for as long but, it doesn’t make sense to me for the Chiefs to not take the best QB in this draft. Especailly when they have had such bad QBs for so long. LTs can come and go. There are LTs on the FA market right now.. or al least there were. But franchise QBs? No. So, why wouldn’t the Chiefs tie him up? I don’t get it.

      • KCMikeG

        McNabb to some degree but don’t forget Randall Cunningham.

      • micah stephenson

        I cant believe it! We finally get the #1 pick. We can finally get the best QB. And now the Chiefs might not get him. Wow.

    • micah stephenson

      Thanks Lyle. When I say GENO SMITH looks like A.Rogers when he play, I get blasted and made fun of.

  • Outback Chief

    I’ve said before if we draft Geno then being coached up by Reid he will always be worth at least a 1st rd pick probably much more and we could end up with the perfect QB for the west coast offense taking us to the playoffs. As hard as QB’s are to come by I won’t be surprised if he becomes a Chief at least for a yr or two.

    • elly violette

      If the Chiefs draft Geno Smith then I will give everyone on this site a big kiss.

  • Adam Best

    Tremendous post, Ladner. Your Geno genome probably got me back on the Geno train.

  • KCMikeG

    Great post Ladner! Perfect blend of deep thinking and statistical support that transcends pure Homerism. Keep bringing the truth. What ever they decide will be a win for us. Magnificent job by R&D! And a BIG Thanks to Clark Hunt for writing the checks to get us the pieces we need now.

  • Daniel Mayfield

    Geno Geno Geno! That’s who I’ve wanted them to get since this ALL started! The man is good! Fans fight with me about his bad games. But finally somebody shows and PROVES the stats on the papers! Come on! If they don’t get him, he’s gonna rip us apart. Maybe not this year. Maybe not are team since we loaded up the defense! But he will be putting up numbers that KC fans that didn’t want him, change their mind and probably get upset. He’ll make Reid and Dorsey think “why did we skip him!?”.

    Reid and Dorsey hired 2 new QBs. There’s still 2 more. Cut the last 2, get Geno and then you got a good QB chart.