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Why Nick Foles Is Worth More Than A 3rd


The last week has certainly thrown our QB draft predictions through a loop.

The first shoe to drop was Michael Vick, who signed a new three-year contract “that’s really a one-year deal” according to USA Today worth up to $10 million last Monday. He was already under contract but his restructured deal all but ended speculation that he might be a cap casualty and hit the open market. This leaves just Alex Smith and Matt Flynn as starting-caliber QB’s who could be cut or traded by their current teams.

Then, over the weekend, Dorsey heavily criticized this year’s incoming quarterback draft class, citing “so many inconsistencies” and “too many technical flaws, scheme flaws” among this year’s crop.

Like Paddy, I struggle to understand the purpose of these statements except that maybe he’s hoping to find a trade partner who is enamored with either DT Star Lotulelei or LT Luke Joeckel (the consensus top prospects at the moment) and is willing to hopscotch up to the Chiefs’ spot to guarantee not missing out on one of them. Then again, it’s February and GM’s are usually the last person you can trust leading up to the draft. On the other hand, when you hold the first pick, you don’t really need to juke out anyone.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A few days before his statements came reports that the Chiefs were interested in trading for Eagles QB Nick Foles. It remains unclear if these reports or credible or just idle speculation that Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid would be interested in taking the quarterback he drafted last year and started in the final seven games of the season. One way or the other, with the Chiefs QB options narrowing, it is certainly worth considering whether the team should make a play for Foles and what he would be worth.

In my opinion, Foles is worth at least the Chiefs’ 3rd-round pick. Here’s why:

His overall stats for his rookie season were unimpressive: 1-7 record, 60.8% completion percentage for 6.41 yards per completion, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. But, it’s important to see how he progressed. In his last four games last year he was 5 TD’s, 2 INTs for 1,152 yards (a 289.25 per-game average).

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Consider also that he was never supposed to see the field in 2012. He was widely regarded as a guy who would need a lot of development to be ready to play in the NFL.

Furthermore, he was able to put in respectable performances for the Eagles during the home stretch of a season that was a slow motion implosion. Our very own Andy Reid was a lame duck in Week 3. The defense was a sieve, allowing a 27.8 per game (3rd-worst in the league). Two coaches were fired mid-season. The offensive line was a disaster, allowing a league-high 118 QB hits, and 48 sacks. Only four teams allowed more.

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

In some ways, none of this was new to him. He played college ball at Arizona, a middling team in the PAC-12 that played poor defense and only got to one bowl game during his stint there. Their head coach was fired after his junior season.

Nonetheless, Foles was a highly ranked prospect in the 2012 Draft because he possesses the prototypical qualities of a successful quarterback – 6’5” with a big arm and knack for dropping bombs in his receivers’ breadbaskets. In his final season for the Wildcats, he gained 4,334 yards with 28 TD’s and 14 INT’s. He was ranked CBS Sports’ 48th overall prospect and was expected to go in the mid-to-late 2nd round. (For a total breakdown of his college work, check out Ladner’s post on the subject from last year).

In fact, the only reason he fell so far was likely because last year’s draft class was so much richer than this year’s and there had already been a feeding frenzy on signal callers. Six quarterbacks were taken ahead of Foles — Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson. All but one of those guys started this year and proved that they could be productive players. After Foles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Lindley were selected and also ended up playing for their respective teams. So, while the Eagles may have gotten him for just a 3rd, that was a steal. Luckily for us, Pioli grabbed a backup lineman instead.

So what is he worth?

For the record, I should reiterate that I continue to believe that the Chiefs’ best course of action is to franchise LT Brandon Albert, re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe and grab the top quarterback prospect (Geno Smith) with our first overall pick. We can pick up some serviceable veterans and depth players to plug in the rest of our holes with free agency and the lower-rungs of the draft.

But, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a case for grabbing Nick Foles.

With his youth, upside and NFL experience, I think Foles would easily be one of the top three quarterback prospects if he was magically inserted into the 2013 draft. His tape reminds me a lot of Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon and it’s possible that both of those guys will go in the first round. I can’t fathom either of them falling out of the 2nd.

So, Nick Foles’ former draft position doesn’t matter much when talking about draft compensation this year. In fact, given that he showed the ability to be productive at this level automatically means that he is worth more than the 88th overall pick, where he was chosen. Therefore, the Eagles are right to expect more in return.

If we’re talking about equitable compensation I think the conversation starts at the Chiefs’ 3rd-round pick, which, as Ladner pointed out, is really a late 2nd-round pick because the Saints and Browns have no 2nd-rounders this year. We will still probably get a late-3rd compensatory pick, so the sacrifice isn’t devastating. But, I don’t think the Chiefs should go as high as our #34 selection this year, simply because we need to get value with that pick this year (especially if we are going to “reach” at #1). But, I think it makes perfect sense to offer conditional 2014 picks and maybe even 2015 picks based on Foles’ performance.

A possible deal could look like this – a 3rd or 4th this year and a 6th next year that could increase to a 4th, 3rd, or even 2nd-round pick in 2014 if he starts for us and takes us to the playoffs. Generally, a pick next year is considered the equivalent of a pick in the current year minus one round. In other words, a 3rd-rounder next year is worth a 4th-rounder this year in terms of draft capital.

With this kind of a deal, worst case scenario is that we give up one of our top-100 picks this year and not much else for a starting-quality backup, who is better than any QB we currently have on the roster, who is 24 and who has a ton of upside. He totally outplayed Brandon Weeden last year, who was taken in the 1st round and is five years older.

If Foles starts for us and we do well with him in 2013, we won’t care that we lost our (late) 2nd or 3rd-round pick next year to get him.

Furthermore, Philadelphia may not be so determined to fetch such a high price. While they have said that they would need to be “blown away” by an offer, they have a new regime and are looking for a different type of quarterback. By re-signing Michael Vick and picking up QB Dennis Dixon, who Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly coached in Oregon, they are showing they want a guy who is mobile and can keep up with Kelly’s offense. Slow feet is one of Foles’ greatest weaknesses. He is the black sheep on the roster. So, while they see value in him, that doesn’t mean they’re in love.

While I know it would be groan-inducing for most Chiefs fans, trading for Foles may also be the team’s best way to get one of the most objectively talented prospects in the 2013 Draft plus a possible quarterback of the future. I’ve been on the record as saying that it would be a mistake for the Chiefs to bypass Geno for Lotulelei or Joeckel, but adding Foles to our shopping bag as a 3rd round pick changes things a bit.

If Dorsey truly is averse to grabbing the top QB in 2013, I think the best consolation prize we are going to find is Nick Foles.

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Tags: 2013 Draft Chiefs John Dorsey NFL Draft Nick Foles Quarterback

  • http://www.facebook.com/scooter.lewis.52 Scooter Lewis

    If I’m not mistaken I’m pretty sure Foles was an Arizona Wildcat not an ASU Sundevil

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      Good call. Changed it.

  • Tcrawf

    he was at arizona where he set the school record in yards, come on man

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      I’ll be the first to admit, I know nothing of NCAA football aside from watching tape on individual players. I don’t even know team colors. I went to American U, where football doesn’t happen.

      • Tcrawf

        thats too bad man, college football is quite electrifying…still a great post! Lets hope we can Nick Foles

        • chiefridgy

          Sorry, but I can’t stand college football.

      • john

        My brother graduated from American U. One of my favorite cities. We use to have a blast when I went down there.

        • NicholasAlanClayton

          Yeah, fun city and great school, but they definitely don’t emphasize collegiate sports, in fact they’re pretty much abolishing them in slow motion. They haven’t had football since the 80′s.

  • Guest

    Brock was the sun devil not foles but whose the expert here

    • chiefridgy

      Way to go on record with that trash talk “Guest”

  • Elvis Grbac

    Why give up a draft pick at all if you can get Alex Smith for nothing more then a paycheck? Foles might have more potential, but I’m willing to take the chance that they both perform the same and use that draft pick to build a better overall team.

    • john

      Why would you get Smith for nothing? Also, Foles is a second year player, Alex Smith is not a “future” QB and Foles has the “potential” to be.
      SF is not going to release Alex Smith. Also, that “paycheck”, will be a whole lot more for Smith than Foles since Foles is only a second year player.

      • Elvis Grbac

        I have no doubt that the 49ers will release Smith. And even if they didn’t he could be had for cheaper then Foles. Why would Philadelphia even give up Foles, if he has the potential to be a future quarterback? Why wouldn’t they just keep him and build the team around him. It just doesn’t make sense. In that situation, you only give up the player if you are blown away. A third round pick isn’t blown away.

        I’d rather spend more on Smith and have the other pick available then go the cheaper route and lose the draft pick.

        But if they are going to go the trade route, I’d still rather they talk to New England for Ryan Mallett.

        • Jarad

          They wouldn’t keep him because he doesn’t fit what they want to do. Resigning Vick and picking up Dixon should give you some insight into their plans.

          • Elvis Grbac

            I don’t buy that either. Vick had a bad year last year. You don’t just say Vick is your starter and use Dixon, who has barely played at all in the NFL, as the back up. Unless their plan is to draft a quarterback high in the draft, I think they go into camp with Vick/Foles/Dixon.

          • KCMikeG

            No I think you had it right with the draft addition. They like Joeckel and Manuel (who they can get in the 4th round). Foles doesn’t fit Kelly’s system. How about we trade picks with the Eagles so they can get Joeckel #1 for Foles? We pick Geno at #4.

          • NicholasAlanClayton

            That would still allow the Raiders to grab him at #3, but if we already have Foles locked up that would hurt a lot less and we can take some of the falling defensive stars. Still, the point is that there is no guarantee that Geno will be there if we leave the #1 spot.

          • KCMikeG

            Wait a minute. Geno won’t be there at #4 yet he isn’t worthy of a 1st round pick?? I am so confused.

          • NicholasAlanClayton

            You’re confusing me with other mock drafters. I never said Geno was unworthy of #1, in fact, he is who I want the Chiefs to pick. If they’re not gonna bite though, I want Foles over everyone else.

          • KCMikeG

            Nick – I know you want us to take Geno #1. I was just using your comment of him going at #3 as sarcastic comment to the naysayers of his value. I think if we don’t take him #1 he WILL go top 10 to either the Jags, faiders, Cards or Brownies. These “experts” are blinded by their hard ons from Luck & RGIII last year. I liked Foles last year in the draft and believe he is a good choice for one of the competitors for our starting position this year as he already knows Reid’s system. Please spare me from Alex Smith, Flynn or left overs from anyone else.

    • GETFOLESONTHE12TH

      foles is a young qbotf, smith is going into his 8th year. thats why

      • Elvis Grbac

        He’s 29. It’s not like he’s Warren Moon.

  • john

    Though I think I change my mind almost daily, I think Foles might be the best bet for the Chiefs. Based on need and the players in this draft, the Chiefs have arguably managed to put themselves in the worst year for the top pick in decades. Foles might be considered the number one or two for QB’s in this draft. I see no point in picking Joeckle. Albert, who they can sign or tag is an “above average” LT. Seems like swapping players, though Joeckle is probably going to be much better. On the flip side, however, Lotulelei appears to be a HUGE upgrade over either Jackson or Dorsey. I also disagree about the comment on Poe. I think he made great strides over the season and has the potential they thought he did.
    Foles is young, big and talented and Reid knows and values him. If they can get him with their third, I think he’s well worth it. Then take a QB in a later round since there seems to be little difference between virtually all of them. Lastly, and I know you’ll pounce on me, keep Cassel….as the back-up. I’m sure he’ll be glad to restructure his contract to stay in KC and I suspect Reid could make him a better QB if he’s needed.

  • Danny W

    After watching Kirk Cousins play this year I’m left highly impressed. If were going pass on GS3 then we may as well package up our second this year and a conditional pick next year and see if we can’t pry him from the skins. I think he’s better than cousins.

    • john

      RG3 was injured twice last year. There is NO WAY the Skins are going to let Cousins get away….not yet…while they have him under contract and don’t have to pay him a lot of money because he was a rookie last year. Won’t happen unless you give them the first pick of the draft, which is obviously sarcasm.

      • Danny W

        If their (Dorsey Ried) convinced that Cousins could be the guy for a long time then do what it takes to get their man. Why be passive about the future?

  • kcintx

    The QB class of 2012 had a very good year. Most of them running a new style offence that the NFL D coordinators were not accustom to defending. I assure you all the D coordinators are preparing for it now. I remember Rick Mirer’s after his 1st year he was compared to Montana. Then the D coordinators studied the game film and discovered he could only throw to the right side of the field. Time will sort out if they are great QBs or just benefactors of 1) new style of Offence. 2) A lack of game film that the apposing D coordinators could study. or 3) a combination of 2 & 3. I live in Houston. All I can think of is David Carr. Draft class looked almost identical as now and the Texans reached. 1 mistake resulted in a 5 year setback.

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      That was before the rookie wage scale, however, and that was the main reason the texans were screwed. This year, the Chiefs aren’t facing the same financial burden.

  • http://twitter.com/Tcrawf63 Tanner Crawford

    Cut Dorsey, Jackson, Cassel, Breaston so we can Sign Bowe, Albert, Mike
    Wallace, Charles Woodson and then Trade for foles, take joekel (replaces
    matt cassels #1 fan Eric Winston), 2nd round pick Arthur Brown, LB from KSU which will allow Tamba to slide up to DE, pick honeybadger third round and
    then Charles Woodson and Flowers can mold the honeybadger (complementary pick), pick Ej
    Manuel third round to compete with Foles and be a solid athletic backup.

  • Jarad

    Good point. I think getting Foles and drafting a QB in round 2 or 3 is the ideal scenario. IF there’s any value left at that point. It’s not the end of the world to bypass the QB position in this extremely weak QB draft either, get Foles and still draft another QB next year. It has to be better than this year’s class doesn’t it!?!?

  • Chiefswatch

    The problem is this: if we pick up Foles we will still pick up another QB in the draft. Not with number one but with some pick and it will be someone like Landry Jones or EJ Mannuel. So if Foles becomes Cassel then what? You have the fans screaming to put in unkown rookie backup and if he comes in and sucks it up what are left with. It would be the Cassel/Stanzi scenario all over again. Best case is still drafting Geno and having Foles back him up, but we all know that won’t happen.

    • mnelson52

      Reid thinks he got a bargain when Foles slip to the third round. That means he thinks he was worth a second. He doesn’t think any QB is worth a first this year, so he must think Geno should be a second. If that is the case, then he might think Foles is a higher second and use our second pick to get Foles as our franchise QB. I hope not.

      • KCMikeG

        I like Foles but he has done nothing to make himself worth more than what was paid for him originally. I agree with you that Geno is worth more than Foles. Bring them both in and let them compete.

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      We are in the forest of unknowns. Foles could be a Cassel and Geno could be a Gabbert. I think our best hope is trying with multiple rolls of the dice.

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      It’s also worth pointing out that Foles doesn’t have the physical limitations that Cassel has. Cassel always had an average arm and low upside. That is not the case with Foles.

    • KCMikeG

      Agree totally. I liked Foles as a draft pick and agree with your thoughts of him as a back up to Geno. I think Foles has some attributes that Cassel doesn’t which could lead to a higher upside but when you read the description of his weaknesses it sounds like a description of Cassel. CBS Sports draft profile:

      Weaknesses: Foles is only an average athlete and has happy feet with the bad habit of hopping in the pocket. He has a bit of a wind-up delivery and needs to quicken his throwing motion. Foles tends to rush throws and lose his mechanics at times, which leads to erratic passes. He has struggled with his decision-making and needs to improve his pre-snap recognition skills to read defenses and see blitzes. Foles doesn’t decipher information as quickly as you would like. He is sometimes too patient as a passer, holding the ball too long, and needs to improve his internal clock. Foles puts too much air in some of his throws, sailing several of his passes and needs to show lower trajectory on deep throws. He needs to improve his touch at all levels and know when to gun it and when to take something off his throws. Foles’ accuracy is solid, but far from great with streaky ball placement downfield as he tries to thread the needle too much. He needs to take better control of the ball (33 career INTs). Foles’ record as a starter was only 15-18, including a disappointing 4-8 senior season with his head coach being fired. He doesn’t come from a complicated college offense with mostly shotgun formations so expect a learning curve in the pros. Foles dealt with several injuries the past two seasons, most notably a left knee and hamstring injury so durability is a minor issue. NFL Comparison: Chad Henne, Dolphins — Dane Brugler

      Sound familiar? Maybe Reid can fix Foles but then doesn’t that opens up the possibility of Reid “fixing” Cassel??

      • Chiefswatch

        Holy shit that does sound exactly like turd Cassel. I changed my mind, avoid Foles.

  • GETFOLESONTHE12TH

    if its a second, it has to be a 2014 2nd. giving up the 2nd pick in rd 2 this year is too much

  • Stacy D. Smith

    Anything higher than a 3rd means he’s our #1 option at QB. I want no parts of that. I’d offer them a 5th and still draft a QB #1.

  • bndwarner

    Could we swap our first pick to the Eagles for their first round pick which would ensure that the Eagles get Joeckel? They would also give us Foles for the swap and we can pick up a DE like Werner or a DB like Milliner at number 4.

  • Chiefs1964

    Dude you have lost your mind. Good golly between you and the other competive bloggers. Have you heard of the salary cap? Do you really want another Todd Blacklidge (Gino Smith) or how about another 2nd string QB burning up our cap space. Be patient for crying out loud!!! You don’t think Dorsey and Reid know we need a QB? Sh*t the bed Fred give them a chance to deliver. There’s no one out there right now! In a year youll be the same guy bitching about how we blew a draft pick on someone else’s backup.

    • NicholasAlanClayton

      I’m just weighing the options, which, for this year, look like Alex Smith, Matt Flynn, Nick Foles (all via trade most likely), and a series of QB’s with late 1st, early 2nd-round grades. Somehow, we need to get ourselves a competitive quarterback out of that bunch, preferably one with youth and upside. Otherwise, 2013 is going to look a lot like 2012. I’d be happy to hear your plan.

      • Chiefs1964

        You know I don’t mean to be harsh. I’m just as frustrated as you. I’m not a Cassel fan but my guess is he wouldn’t have been quite so terrible if our OL wouldn’t have been decimated last year. Albert is a good player but he’s no Roaf or John Alt. Trent Green wasn’t doing that great until Vermeil snagged Roaf and then Green was a pro bowler and priest Holmes was too. Unfortunately for us the best players in this draft is the big and nasties. The first pick in the draft has to be an elite guy it’s that simple or we WILL be a joke. Our new QB will be as good as our LT or he’ll be on a stretcher. Hunt showed some kahoonas and he’s proved he’ll spend the bucks. You can bet Dorsey will be turning over every rock to find a QB. My guess Reid wants an athletic QB and there are none in this draft. I think they still draft one though but I doubt he’s our guy. We have to be patient. You can’t make chicken salad out of chicken sh*t. My plan let the guys that know find our guy and hope they don’t reach or over pay so we can build a team around him. Think of what Charles could have done with a good OL. He’s our best player right now lets support him until a smart choice comes available then we’ll have the cap space to do something about it.

        • berttheclock

          Actually, Trent Greens’ best QB rating came with the five games he started for the Rams after Warner’s hand was injured. 60.4 completion rating, 16 TDs with only 5 INTs for a 101.8 QB rating. Orlando Pace was his sold LT. Pace had been i place before the SB win. You are correct about TG being protected by Willie Roaf and TG’s next best QB rating came in the ’04 season. With the Redskins, he had problems as they had no permanent LT. But, consider this in regards to trading for any QB, such as Foles. The Chiefs gave up 1st and a 2nd for Green who had only played well in 5 starts.

          • Chiefs1964

            All good points and I agree. Bottom line Green did well when he had a good LT. He did bad when he didn’t have one. So consider what’s created if Dorsey reads these blogs and folds under the pressure to grasp a QB. Foles has proved nothing. Chip Kelly just signed Vic. Who do you think is going to start? So we give up a good draft pick for Foles?

            So by your philosophy we give up a draft pick for a second string QB and /or draft Gino and pay him like Andrew Luck. Now sign Albert and pay him his big payday. Albert wants top money but look at his whole career, he’s not a top 5 LT not even top 10. He’s ranked 13 in the league. That’s about the middle of the pack. So if we keep him were going to overpay. There’s people saying pay him top 5 money. Seriously?
            So now we’ve possibly over paid for the two most important positions on offense and tied up our cap money for years. Notwithstanding what you want to do with Bowe? So lets give him his big payday too. What do we have? Exactly what we have now. Only now we’ve mortgage the future and have potential cap problems. What about Charles? His contract will be up in 2015. Furthermore, We haven’t even considered the defense. Talk about slapping them in the face. We are NOT 1 player away from being competitive. We’re about to loose two good DL. Not great DL and overpaid. So their hitting the road. You are about to create the same thing on offense.
            It simple the teams that reach for players overpay. Overpay and your in cap trouble. That happens when you have great players. Do it with good to average players and your exactly where we are now. Chiefs fans shouldn’t get so emotionally attached to these players. How many times do you here them say…it’s a business. A good business doesn’t overpay it’s employees when they don’t produce. PS we was the worst team last year.

          • berttheclock

            No, my philosophy is the same as the Trench Warfare philosophy of John Madden. JM used to sit for hours in coffee shops arguing with Al Davis about how best to build a pro team. AD wanted tough CBs and bomb throwing QBs. Madden wanted the biggest toughest linemen he could find. I was in Seattle watching Rick Mirer get ruined because of a very weak line. I, also, witnessed their turn around after they took Walter Jones and a couple of years later Steve Hutchinson. Then, Hassleback could lead the team to the SB. The Rams turned after drafting Orlando Pace. The Ravens began their run after taking Ogden. The Bengals changed directions after taking Munoz. Even the seat of Cool Lenny’s pants were kept very clean by Tyrer. Great offensive teams have great LTs. So, I would rather see the Chiefs make a bridge loan for say, Foles, Alex Smith and begin building a great offensive line. Fisher is rising to the level of Joeckel and may be even better. I say start with the O-line and all will follow.

          • Chiefs1964

            Sorry I didn’t realize you jumped in there. But you are talking my language. The OL is the key on offense. If they want to pick up a good temp QB with the potential to grow, compete and who knows maybe be a starter. Sure I’m all for that. But don’t sell the farm and don’t risk the first pick in the draft. Hopefully that opportunity doesn’t come around again for awhile. As far as Joeckel and Fisher, I think your dead on. That will be interesting who rises to the top. As far as a new QB, lets get someone worth the money these guys get paid. The Chiefs fans deserve a quality guy and we won’t be any good till we get one.

  • Chiefs1964

    Dude you have lost your mind. Good golly between you and the other competive bloggers. Have you heard of the salary cap? Do you really want another Todd Blacklidge (Gino Smith) or how about another 2nd string QB burning up our cap space. Be patient for crying out loud!!! You don’t think Dorsey and Reid know we need a QB? Sh*t the bed Fred give them a chance to deliver. There’s no one out there right now! In a year youll be the same guy bitching about how we blew a draft pick on someone else’s backup.

  • Andy

    First and most important to me. I trust Reid to get the QB he wants. His track record with QB is good. So if it’s Cassel, FA, trade, or draft, I will give Reid my trust. Second, I love this idea. We would give a 3rd rounder for Foles. We have another 3rd round pick, so we wouldn’t lose much. Third. you barely touched on Foles real issues this year. He was not working with a healthy ofeense when he was in. He was getting hit or sacked, I think 42% of the time. Bring him here. We will not regret it.

  • berttheclock

    At the moment, Howie Roseman, the GM of the Eagles, is playing a type of poker bluff game by leaking to the press he wants a one or a two. Since, HR has been GM, he has made 31 trades. Not all were great, especially letting an OT go to Grigson of the Colts, only to have his offensive line decimated. But, his crowning glory came from picking the pockets of the Cardinals, where he was able to pry a top DB and a top pick for Kolb. Arizona was desperate. The Chiefs are not as they have more options. So, this could come down, if the Chiefs want Foles, to one of who blinks first.
    However, the Chiefs really can’t make any statements for the record of actually wanting Foles, as that would be considered tampering.

  • nicksaenz1

    If your willing to take a Geno Smith with the number 1 pick, why wouldn’t you give up the 34th for Foles and take another position of need at #1 that would be top flight talent? That would make the most sense.