Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; A general view of the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

2013 NFL Draft Big Board And The Kansas City Chiefs – Volume 2


Last month I gave you a look at the 2013 NFL Draft consensus big board right before the Senior Bowl. With the NFL combine about to get under way I thought it might be a good idea to give you a look at the updated version. I’ll be using many of the same sources as I did in the last edition. Volume 2 is a composite of the following rankings: CBS’s NFL Draft Scout, Walterfootball.com, Drafttek, Bleacher Report, Scout’s Inc, Draftcountdown.com, NEPatriotsDraft.com, SI.com, and fftoolbox.com. In this edition I’ll give you the players current rank, their previous rank from last month, and also the “ranking range” that the player had. The later being the highest and lowest ranking that the player had from the different sources listed above. Afterwards, I’ll discuss the latest board’s impact on the KC Chiefs’ draft.

You can see that despite the fact that no meaningful football has been played in the past month, the board has seen a lot of fluctuation. This is in part a result of how some prospects performed at the Senior Bowl (Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson), but it is also a result of scouts having more time to watch tape on the prospects. I suspect that we’ll see a similar fluidity to the board after the combine is over and as the actual draft draws nearer. Also, I’d like to point out just how much disagreement there still is out there. Take a second to look at the ranking ranges of these prospects. They are all over the map. There is no bigger example than Sylvester Williams who ranked in at #50 but was rated as high as #15 on set of rankings and as low as #93 on another.

So how does this big board effect the Chiefs’ draft? Well, first off, there are only 6 consensus top 10 players from these nine sources: Joeckel, Lotulelei, Werner, Warmack, Fisher, and Milliner. In fact, if you look at the ranking ranges all the other prospects had at least one source that ranked them outside the top 15. So ANY prospect (not just QBs) taken first overall that aren’t one of the 6 players listed above will be seen as a huge reach by some experts.

So will KC draft one of those 6 players at first overall? Recent reports have surfaced that Branden Albert has passed his physical with KC and that they are working to re-sign him. If this is true and KC comes to a deal with Albert, then Joeckel and Fisher seem unlikely picks. If KC were to let Albert walk, then they would be very much in play. Taking a guard 1st overall seems unlikely, even one as good as Warmack. Werner is strictly an edge pass rusher and with Hali and Houston on the roster he would seem a poor bet for the pick as well. That really only leaves Lotulelei and Milliner as reasonable possibilities if Albert re-signs. Both of these players would fill a need (although if KC were to sign Chris Canty who visited the Chiefs their need at DE would be reduced) and would likely be foundational players for KC for a long time.

So what if KC goes outside those top six players with the first pick?

In my opinion, if KC goes outside those consensus top 10 players listed above it would almost certainly be for Geno Smith. I know that John Dorsey recently told Adam Teicher that there isn’t a stand out QB, but according to these rankings there is. Geno Smith ranks in at #12 in these rankings. The next QB on the list is Matt Barkley at #33. That’s a 21 spot difference. Would I be okay with the Chiefs taking the 12th overall prospect at #1 if it meant that they were getting a QB that was 21 spots better than any other QB in the draft? Yes, yes I would.

Plus, I take issue with people that say we’ll get better “value” if we take a QB at #34 overall. I would expect that at least 3 QBs will come off the board before KC’s 2nd round pick. That means that the best QB available when KC drafts in the 2nd round will probably be ranked in the 40s on the overall big board. Meanwhile, experts all over are talking about how this draft may lack elite talent at the top but it has excellent depth. Case in point, there are exactly 34 prospects on this list that were ranked in the top 20 on at least one set of rankings. That means that there is guaranteed to be at least one prospect on the board when the Chiefs pick in the 2nd round that some had as a top 20 pick. So how is taking a QB at #34 that is ranked in the 40s when there is still top 20 talent left on the table better value?

I would argue that in a draft lacking in elite top talent but deep in overall value that reaching for Geno at #1 would actually be less costly than passing up solid first round talent at the top of the 2nd round to take the 4th or 5th best QB in a weak QB class. Frankly, if KC doesn’t take a QB at #1 overall I’d rather they waited until the 3rd-5th rounds to take one.

I understand what Dorsey told Teicher, but what do you expect him to say? “We think there is one guy that is clearly the best at QB and if we don’t get him we’re in trouble.” Why would he put himself into a corner like that? At this point I’m sure KC is trying to keep all of their options open. Am I saying that I’m confident that they’ll draft Geno? No way, I don’t have a clue. I’m also not ruling it out.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the matter. What do you think of this latest big board? Who do you see KC taking at this point? Where do you see the value in drafting a QB? Let’s hear your answers in the comments below.

As always, thanks for reading and GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tags: Featured Kansas City Chiefs NFL Draft Popular

  • Tyler Alexander

    I think if WVU put up 9 or 10 wins this season we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Chiefs fans should all agree Trent Greene didn’t suck in 02 and 04 yet he couldn’t overcome a horrid defense either. Passing on Smith will be a mistake.

    • Chris Tarrants

      Amen to that! He has numbers that are better than what RG3 or Luck put up in college but yet he gets no credit what so ever. It’s hard to win every game when you defense gives up 3o-40 points a game

      • GDL40

        I think it’s BS that he gets no credit ! The media either has something against him or against KC !

        • chiefridgy

          KC never gets any love from the media.

  • GDL40

    GREAT piece of writing ! I couldnt agree with u more, if Geno is ranked 12th, 22 spots higher than the next QB, KC is desperate for a QB, we have the 1st overall pick…… PICK THE GUY !!!! who cares if some “experts” call it a reach. Having the #1 pick assures us we dont have to waste more picks on a trade to get him, and we dont have to give him this monster rookie contract like before, so IT’S A NO BRAINER !

    • Danny W

      One would think.

  • chiefridgy

    Draft smith. The Chiefs most glaring need is obviously QB. There is no guarantee no matter who you pick at whatever position. Chiefs can’t miss out on the best available QB.

  • nathan82

    I hope it is Geno, but if they do indeed pass, I hope they go Milliner. Old man Peyton is still in the division after all and we need someone to lock it down with Flowers. We can get DT help elsewhere.

  • Dominick

    Take Milner. Picture him opposite Brandon flowers and posted up in front of berry! If we can’t get a sure fire thing going on offense, lets do it on defense.

    • @SergioIsAmazin

      why milner when there are good cbs in free agency , Dominique
      Rodgers-Cromartie , Brent Grimes , Mike Jenkins ,

      • Chris Tarrants

        Word gas is Revis island will be in another city next year! Imagine him back there with flowers and berry

        • calciomoti

          If we do not take Geno, Milliner is the only other option at 1 overall I would comfortable taking. Again, the rookie cba probably makes him cheaper than the aforementioned FA’s…I know he is not proven yet, but thats fine with me, I think in KC, he would excell in his surrounding, we have a strong defense, that just needs coach leadership.

          • Danny W

            4 years 24 million isn’t going to be too much cheaper than a castoff.

          • calciomoti

            Is that QB money, or top pick money? I’d still rather pay Milliner that money as a #1 overall pick, than to pay that or more for a “cast off” as you described them.

          • Danny W

            That’s the ceiling on top pick anything. There’s a bunch of veteran corners who can come in and contribute with out too much money being blown. We need a quarterback the very most and have needed one for years now.

      • NicholasAlanClayton

        Sam Shields is ranked higher by PFF than all those guys and has ties to Dorsey being from GB. He’s also still just 25. He’s my choice.

    • Danny W

      I bet the same was said out in Philly when they had Namdi, DRC and Samuel. Cornerbacks don’t win you super bowls.

      • NicholasAlanClayton

        But Revis has kept the Jets competitive for far longer than they should have been given their Chiefs-like offensive play. Just sayin’.

        • Danny W

          Yeah when he’s healthy he’s the best theres no doubt about it. He can shut down any and all of them.

  • TAZMOSIS

    In a recent interview, Jon Dorsey was asked about his thoughts on Russell Wilson. He said that he had looked at Wilson’s tapes and had spoken with him before the draft. Dorsey was impressed with Wilson’s on-field play, but he was most impressed with Wilson’s demeanor during the interview process. He thought that as a QB, Wilson was a leader, smart football mind, and had all of the attributes to be a star in the NFL. It was when he talked with Wilson in person that he was convinced that he was the kind of guy that would hit it big. Well, why then cannot this be said of Geno Smith? Let’s wait and see the interview process and how Smith comes across. By all accounts, I have heard that he is the traditional “gym rat”, in that he is all about football. He studies, works hard at his craft and is not afraid to put in the hours. I think that this will go a long way with Dorsey and Reid in their final decision on a QB in the draft.

  • Dominick

    I wouldn’t be upset with picking geno, basically I’d be upset if we took anyone other than Milner or geno. And in the event we don’t take geno, I would say overload our qb situation with snagging whatever FA QB we could get and using our 2nd and one of our 3rds on qb’s. lets finally have an all out (and legitimate) QB bout for starting spot this training camp

  • @SergioIsAmazin

    i never understood why he gets critzied so much .. mayock nd mcshay are the 1nes tearing his stock down.

    Geno Smith was dam near better then Peyton Manning. Geno threw moe touchdowns than A. Luck, RG3 and the HOF P.Manning … if the chiefs do pass him up then we are going to have a long misreable season. I dont care for A. Smith he not that great im telling you folks. We are really a couple of missing piece from being a playoff team.

    number 2. WR
    number 2. CB
    A Better Safety
    Better DE and someone who can play next to DJ..

  • john

    Finally, someone with actually credibility (Dorsey) says what most of us already knew. The people wanting Geno Smith to be the number one pick must be sad today, and, if they think throwing at the combine and 15 minute interviews will replace four years of performance, they’re nuts.
    Also, what is the obsession with Luke Joeckel? That makes no sense to me. The Chiefs have an “above average” LT who they can sign or tag. That seems like a wasted top pick. Take the beast DT out of Utah and dump Jackson and/or Dorsey, who are not as good as Ablert at their position.

    • Danny W

      Block eater!? Oh come on now. The guy doesn’t get to the quarterback! You want to cut our two block eaters who get over paid to draft one number one overall?
      Geno Smith has better college numbers than Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, RG3, Fran Tarkitan, Unitas, Len Dawson, the list goes on and on and on. Why isn’t he worth drafting again?

      • http://www.facebook.com/randy.harries Randy Harries

        Case Keenum also put up some pretty crazy stats in college. I don’t disagree that Geno has a shot at being a good NFL QB, but some systems in college are designed in a way that make average QB’s look much better than they really are…

  • Danny W

    We have get a quarterback somewhere. I’m obviously in the Geno Smith camp, and with his college numbers and measurable’s being were they are I can’t fathom a reason why we wouldn’t take him. Star is a block eater he doesn’t get to the QB. Dee Milner, is a CB who isn’t wowing anyone, and Luke are Joeckeling could bust just as easy as Jason Smith did.

  • MATTHEWS1

    Awesome job! Just wish you wouldnt have included WalterFootball