Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

KC Chiefs Likely To Get 3rd Round Compensatory Pick In 2013

The Kansas City Chiefs may have one more high draft pick in 2013 thanks to the NFL’s compensatory pick rules.

According to the Blogging the Beast, a site that analyzes and tries to predict compensatory picks, the Kansas City Chiefs will likely receive a bonus third round pick and a seventh round selection in this year’s draft.

While the compensatory pick rules are a bit complicated and can be hard to predict, we’ll try to put them in as simple terms as we can.

Teams that lose a player in free agency, that is to say, the player’s contract expires and they sign elsewhere, can sometimes be compensated in the form of draft picks. Only players that leave in free agency are counted into consideration. Players that are cut to retire do not count.

Compensatory picks begin in the third round of the NFL draft and are added to the end of each round. Third round compensatory picks are rare. Only one was given out in both 2011 and 2011. Three were given out in 2010.

The NFL has a formula to determine whether or not a team is due a compensatory pick. It has in large part to do with the contract the departing players signs as well as the contracts of the free agents the team signs. If the NFL determines that the team’s free agent acquisitions were close or equal in value to the free agents they lost, then no compensatory pick would be awarded.

The folks over at Blogging the Beast are very, very good at predicting compensatory picks. Last year, they correctly predicted or came within a round of 26 of the 32 picks that were given out.

The Chiefs lost a couple of high-priced free agents last offseason.

Chiefs Carr (5 yr $50.1 million), Orton (3 yr $10.5 million), McClain (3 yr $8.25 million) Hillis (1 yr $2.8 million), Quinn (1 yr $1 million)

There is also a bit about Barry Richardson:

I awarded 30 normal comp picks. Last year the cutoff for considering players eligible was in the $800k-$900k range. I counted several players that received 1-year contracts for $890k, but not Barry Richardson, who received a 1-year deal for $800k. He ended up starting for St. Louis, so he may be counted, which would give Kansas City a 6th round pick (see below, for Orton, Quinn would then cancel out Richardson). This is the tricky area because the location of the cutoff line could affect multiple picks. Tennessee, Atlanta, and San Francisco could lose 7th round picks, and Houston and the Giants could gain 6th round picks if particular older players making the veteran minimum are not counted.

The big one here is obviously the third round selection the Chiefs could be awarded in large part, thanks to Brandon Carr’s huge contract with the Cowboys.

If the projection is right, the Chiefs could have two picks very close together at the end of the third round and the beginning of the fourth. Depending on how things shake out, the picks could even be back to back.

Since all of the Chiefs’ picks are of high value in each round, this extra pick could really increase the team’s flexibility to move around via trade if it so desires.

While this prediction isn’t an exact science, the size of Carr’s deal and the loss of Orton should all but guarantee KC lands an extra third rounder/early fourth rounder.

Visit Blogging the Beast for the complete prediction list.

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