End The Drought, Draft Geno Smith Now! PART III of III

End The Drought, Draft Geno Smith Now! PART III of III*

To read PART I go here. PART II, here.

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Comparisons and Statistics

At the end of November 2012, Aaron Palinckx of examiner.com wrote an article called, Geno Smith Could Be Next Year’s Robert Griffin III of Fantasy Football in which he said,

"Geno Smith has posted staggering statistics this college football season and has established himself as the number one QB in college football."

“Staggering statistics.” Think about all that Geno Smith has accomplished. Read, or watch, Lyle Graversen’s post Video: Geno Smith Is Worthy Of The #1 Pick. Lyle’s video grabs, written evidence and links are well researched and well worth re-reading. I certainly have.

When you compare Geno Smith to all other options inside and outside the draft (free agency) it appears that he’s the best and first and only option — for those who are “informed” about Kansas City’s range of choices. This is not to say the Chiefs won’t trade down to take a player more suited to the value they believe that player has. However, if that happens, Geno Smith won’t be there. Then, they’re back to square one… 30 years ago. Some fans believe the Chiefs will take a QB later in the draft but, it seems less and less likely the more you compare the available QB prospects.

I haven’t come across one other prospect option that was even close to being acceptable. True, I’m not an NFL level talent evaluator but, I’d challenge anyone to come up with evidence that shows that a specific prospect in this draft is noticeably better than any of the others… especially a QB.

Kaepernicking the QB Prospects

Yes, there’s this “keeping up with the Joneses” going on in the NFL. However, a trend that teams are hoping a QB will bring to the smorgasbord is the increased mobility that players like RGIII, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are slamming on the table. The Kaepernick effect is not so much about QB escapability as it is a QBs resourceful expression that creates positive yardage — at will. Tyler Wilson’s had -44 yards rushing in his college career. Matt Barkley had -113 rushing yards. Geno Smith had +342 yards rushing. No, none of these QBs fully embody the Kaepernick effect but, its obvious Geno Smith is your man when it comes to making positive yards out of nothing, when necessary. He has, at times, been criticized for his footwork in the pocket but, it’s his foot speed that separates him from this year’s other QB prospects and his overall agility is clearly better than Wilson’s or Barkley’s. Geno’s 342 yards comes mostly because of his superior ability to feel pressure in the pocket while keeping his eyes down field and then turning up field when his passing options close.

As a point of reference, Colin Kaepernick rushed for more than 4,000 yards in his college career (and had more than 10,000 yards passing). It’s a wonder that Kaepernick sat on the bench for as long as he has in Frisco.

The Good, the Bad and the Not So Ugly

Some have criticized Geno Smith for fading when facing higher quality opponents. It may be more true that his defense gave away those games. Smith’s lowest QB Ratings this season were 101.0, 101.2 and 114.3. At the other end of the spectrum… he  had QBR game highs of 248.0 and 271.2. By contrast, the Chiefs had only two games in which their QBR was higher than 100 during the 2012 season. Geno Smith could make the Chiefs “plug-and-play” better. By plugging him in at QB the whole team immediately gets better and so does the Chiefs record.

The Ego Hurdle
One of the hurdles to Geno Smith being chosen #1 is the possible over-confidence of Andy Reid. If John Dorsey tells Reid that 2 or 3 top prospects are too close to call and he’s convinced by Andy Reid that Reid and his coaching staff can train any dog (QB) in the circus… then Chiefs fans will be in Siberia once again: on the outside of the first round QB club looking in on a very cold day in January (when the playoffs take place).

The Subterfuge

Don’t get too carried away swallowing everything that you hear Andy Reid, John Dorsey and Clark Hunt are shoveling right now. What matters is what they actually do, 13 short weeks from now. Besides, each of their recent statements should not be viewed as a smoking gun, but more as a smoke screen.

It’s job #1, for HRD (Hunt, Reid & Dorsey) to sandbag. Sandbagging, its a term used in many areas of competition referring to someone who is deliberately deceptive so as to not give an advantage to an opponent. You don’t want HRD giving away the Chiefs future intentions with so much at stake do you? I don’t. So… it’s their job to give us misinformation. Besides, they may not even know what they’re going to do yet. Even if they did know, we all know people whose wedding plans changed the week before the wedding. Which is another reason why fans should let HRD know who they want most.

At this point, HRD’s obligatory statements to the public will be: our goal is turning the organization around to produce wins by taking the best player available (BPA). They also say this so they can claim later, when they’ve chosen a QB, that they indeed did choose the BPA.

“Winning games”… it has to be there official missionary-position-statement. However, to do that, they know they must pleasure the masses by working in some other positions… kind of like the position called… “The Ram” (p. 144 of The Modern Karma Sutra). Most fans will agree that, HRD inserting Geno behind center will be –> hitting the G-spot.

“G” is for Geno of course.

If Hunt, Reid & Dorsey, don’t address the QB position firstly and primarily, by taking the BQBA (Best QB Available), then their definition of “W-I-N-N-I-N-G,” to quote the infamous Mister Sheen, will cause some ongoing Anger Management issues with Chiefs congregants.

The Precedence

Andy Reid has a track record of taking a QB without anyone knowing he’s going to do that. When Reid chose Donovan McNabb 2nd in the 1999 draft and all the Philly fans at Madison Square Garden booed, it’s because there were still other, notable college prospects, like Ricky Williams (who everyone thought was the second coming of Earl Campbell at the time), still on the board.

John Dorsey was director of college scouting with the Packers when they selected Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft. The Packers may not have taken him until pick #24 but, it does make you question if the Pack had the first pick that year just what they would have done. Nevertheless, choosing a first round QB was part and parcel, due to John Dorsey. Plus, OL Logan Mankins, TE Heather Miller and WR Roddy White where first round selections still on the board at that point and each of them turned out to be great players.

The End of the Worst Season in Chiefs History

Near the end of the season ProFootballTalk (PFT) ranked the Chiefs the 32nd best team in the league out of 32 (instead, why couldn’t they just say the Chiefs were the #1… worst team… it somehow sounds better to me than 32nd best out of 32). PFT said of the Chiefs:

"“Chiefs: Losing without flair makes losing a lot worse.”"

Out of all of the prospects talked about who could possibly be drafted at #1 by the Chiefs, who has the greatest ability to bring “flair” to the Chiefs line-up? OT Joeckel? LB Jarvis Jones? DL Mr. Lotulelei? I don’t see any of those players bringing the Chiefs closer to a playoff victory in the near future… but I think Geno Smith can do that. Geno Smith has the upside that would allow him to lead the Chiefs to a Super Bowl… someday but, these other prospects don’t offer that kind of potential.

The Super Prescription

Chiefs fans are not blind to the fact that only one team wins the Super Bowl each year. We’re not asking for a one year turnaround and then expect to win it all by the end of 2013. That, of course, doesn’t mean we don’t want to win, because we do but, it also means that we at least — at minimum — want  our team to be entertaining and exciting and flash once in awhile (the minimum should be some occasional Vermeil-esk magic). We especially don’t want to become nationally recognized for the Chiefs not holding a lead in any game for major chunks of our children’s lives.  2B boring + a loser = no fun.

Most Chiefs fans I talk to are not afraid for the Chiefs to make the same kind of mistake Jacksonville made with Blaine Gabbert two years ago. One of the reasons is… look where that got them: back in the position to draft another top flight QB. Fans are likely more concerned that the Chiefs won’t take the biggest risk of all, the risk of attempting to draft a player to play the most critical position in any sport on the planet.

I think Chiefs fans would rather draft another Todd Blackledge who they think could be great before they want to see another Steve Bono traded for, who will in all likelihood turn out to be another Matt Cassel. By going for Geno Smith at least fans would see that their Kansas City Chiefs… are going for it. You can’t win the game, unless you’re in it. Here’s hoping John and Andy have the Cajones to pull it off.

There are so many reasons why this should, and will get done. If you want to get into more specifics about why Geno Smith is a QB Beast go here. In the meantime, I’m stating my preference to end the drought by drafting Geno now! Nothing else seems as reasonable.

The Campaign

What I’m doing here is politically campaigning for the Kansas City Chiefs to go for broke this year and take the highest rated QB available with the first pick in this draft, Geno Smith.

This past year, fans who were motivated to “Save Our Chiefs” had a positive impact upon helping to bring about the transition from Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel to John Dorsey and Andy Reid. A “Black Out” day at Arrowhead for which Chiefs fans wore black t-shirts, although not universal in it’s support, made an impression. So did the airplane messages flying over games at Arrowhead: “Save Our Chiefs.”

We need no less of a campaign now. We need fans to get behind the ideal of drafting a top notch QB like Geno Smith first in this draft. Fans with a cause make a difference. It’s time for Chiefs fans everywhere to stand up again and be counted: to have OUR voices heard, in mass, when it comes to who the Chiefs will draft first come April 25th.

Sounding Off

Let Clark Hunt hear you right now!

What has it meant to you to not have the organization going all out to make sure it has a franchise QB?

What would it mean to you to have the Chiefs select the best QB in this draft on April 25th?

Go Chiefs Go!

*Arrowhead Addict does not take an official position on who the Kansas City Chiefs should select in the 2013 NFL draft