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A Bold Chiefs’ Draft Move

At 2-11, we have just three games left, including this Sunday’s divisional game against the gross and disgusting Oakland Raiders. Last week against the Browns, the Chiefs had another one of those horrible trifectas – bad defense, atrocious offense and horrible special teams play. In short, we had the same type of game that we’ve become quite accustomed to this year.

After going to Oakland, we have Indy at home and Denver away. Suffice it to say that we could end this year at 2-14, or 3-13 at best. Either way, there’s a great chance that we’ll have the first or second draft pick next year. We’ve all had a great time debating draft picks these past weeks. As the season moves to a painful close, I wanted to offer an unusual draft idea.

First, let’s consider our draft needs.

On offense: quarterback. Easy. But it’s also worth noting here that the Chiefs have actually done an admirable job building an offensive line with decent depth. Next year, we’ll have Rodney Hudson back, with Asamoah and Lilja at guards and Albert and Winston at tackles. And, we’ll have Jeff Allen and Donald Stephenson pushing the vets for starting positions. At tight end and running back, we’re fine. And at wide receiver, we need to re-sign Bowe, and we’ll give Baldwin one more year (and then that’s it, Jon).

On special teams, there are no huge needs that would warrant a first or second round draft pick.

On defense, here’s where it gets more interesting. I’m pretty happy with our front three of Dontari Poe, Glenn Dorsey, and yes, Tyson Jackson, who has had an incredible resurgence now that he gets to play every down under Gary Gibbs’ scheme. Our linebacking core is one step from true greatness, with Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali filling three of four slots. Our secondary is anchored by Flowers and Eric Berry, but we have major gaps with Kendrick Lewis often hurt and the other cornerback slot still a question mark. Arenas has done a great job since Routt got the boot, but I’m not convinced he’s the long-term answer there, and whether he is or not, we need more depth in the secondary at both the corner and safety positions.

Second, let’s consider something we haven’t much talked about. I remember reading last year that we had the first or second youngest team in the league. With a couple decent drafts of late, that stat has just stayed in my brain. But here’s an interesting list of our biggest superstars:

  • Dwayne Bowe: going into his seventh season
  • Jamaal Charles: going into his sixth season
  • Brandon Flowers: going into his sixth season
  • Tamba Hali: going into eighth season
  • Derrick Johnson: going into his ninth season

While our team’s average age may be young, our top playmakers are not so. They are in their prime and they are darn good, so we can’t afford any more years of rebuilding. We have to strike now.

In the draft, here’s five potential first rounders that match up well with our major holes – quarterback, linebacker and secondary:

  • Manti Te’o, linebacker, Notre Dame
  • Dee Milliner, cornerback, Alabama
  • Geno Smith, quarterback, West Virginia
  • Matt Barkley, quarterback, USC
  • Mike Glennon, quarterback, North Carolina State

Te’o plays inside linebacker, the exact gap the Chiefs need to fill. Milliner could play opposite Flowers and lend much needed depth to the secondary. Either Smith, Barkley or Glennon could fill our QB gap. I’d love to add at least two of these players – like Te’o and one of the QB’s. I mean, wouldn’t that be nice? Two first rounders that meet our gaps perfectly, and who might just be two key ingredients to turn this 2012 team into something special in 2013 (along with a new GM and coach, of course).

And here’s the unusual idea: given that the Chiefs don’t have a huge number of gaps and that we have a very young team that will continue to develop, should we actually try to draft two of these five players?

Here’s a list of the value of NFL draft picks:

  • Round 1, 1st pick: 3,000 points
  • Round 2, 1st pick: 580 points
  • Round 3, 1st pick: 265 points
  • Round 4, 1st pick: 112 points
  • Round 5, 1st pick: 43 points
  • Round 6, 1st pick: 27 points
  • Round 7, 1st pick: 14.2 points

Let’s say we have the number two pick, and then we trade for, let’s say, the 13th pick in the draft to take our second first rounder. That third rounder is worth 1,150 points. Essentially, we’d have to give up every other draft pick in 2013, and maybe even a mid-range pick in 2014. To give you a sense of the types of players we’re talking about, here are the last three years’ worth of picks taken in Round 2 or later:

  • 2012: Jeff Allen, Donald Stephenson, Devon Wylie, DeQuan Menzie, Cyrus Gray, Justin Long, Junior Hemingway.
  • 2011: Rodney Hudson, Justin Houston, Allen Baiey, Jalil Brown, Ricky Stanzi, Gabe Miller, Jerrell Powe, Shane Bannon
  • 2010: Dexter McCluster, Javier Arenas, Jon Asamoah, Tony Moeki, Kendrick Lewis, Cameron Sheffeld

If we get the quarterback we most want and another immediate starter (someone like another Derrick Johnson or Tamba Hali!), combined with the pretty decent supporting cast we already have (and a new coach and GM), we might have enough to take best advantage of our current class of superstars. The time to win is actually shorter than I had thought – I think we might want to consider this move. What do you think, Addicts? Would it be worth it to go all in and score two first-rounders this year?

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Tags: Kansas City Chiefs

  • chiefridgy

    As long as it doesn’t take us half the year to get the new system down….

  • Patrick Allen

    For me, the window to bet the farm was missed when the Chiefs refused to get into the RG3 sweepstakes last year. I’d of gladly given up two, even three years worth of first round draft picks for that kid.

    I think the Chiefs need to take the top QB on their board in the first round unless they are absolutely positive (and I mean stone-cold positive) that the QB will be there in rd. 2 when they pick.

    I like what the Browns did last year with how they got Weeden. They got themselves a sledgehammer in Richardson then moved back up to snag their QB. Granted, they had extra picks from the Jones trade but they still got both their guys. They started out rough but I think you could see from last week’s game that Weeden can play. He isn’t as sure a bet as RG3 but he can make all the throws and he has a real shot.

    So if the Chiefs can do something like that I am down. But they need a smart, confident GM who has the know-how to get his evaluations right and the stones to make an aggressive move to ensure he comes out of the draft with at least two excellent players, one of them being a QB.

    • Danny W

      That is not this GM for sure.

      • uhursh

        it is if heckert is hired…

    • Tarkus

      Trading 3 #1s is not looking so good for RG3 right now. Durability was always a question mark with him, and it’s already rearing its ugly head.

  • Tarkus

    I think it’s a bad idea. Although the roster is pretty good, that are still a lot of areas that need improvement.

    Also, the fact that many of our best players are aging does not mean you mortgage the future. Quite the opposite. It means you build up the depth and competition behind them and around them, so you’re not doing a complete rebuild when they retire or move on elsewhere.

    • Michael Shaw

      Maybe it is a bad idea if we have to give up too many picks next year, but if we can make a move like I suggested above, then it would be worth it to try I think. Even though they are older our all stars likely still have about 3-5 years left and I think we could easily recover with free agency and the draft from making a major move like this!!

    • uhursh

      its a freaking terrible idea. I agree with you 100 percent.

    • uhursh

      so many want to repeat the same mistakes made by this franchise for so long
      if the mistake is to take a qb early, and he doesnt pan out under andy reid who wants to take said qb, well, darn, we finally missed on a first round qb since failing in the early 90′s!

      • Tarkus

        If you take a QB early and he fails, then you try again. Especially under the new CBA, where the financial risk isn’t near as bad anymore. Being afraid to make mistakes is why we haven’t won a playoff game in almost 20 years.

  • [email protected]

    U were fine until you said Glennon. Landry Jones is twice the qb that Glennon is. Has the better arm more athleticism more accuracy plays better competition

    • Leon Ritz

      Landry Jones is no where near twice the QB Glennon is, he isn’t as good as Glennon. Watch the Utep game and tell me how good Jones is. In the breakdown from that game that I watched he was 25/39 of those 25 completions 10 were screens and 5 were short dump offs. only 10 were passes of more than 5 or 6 yards and of those 10 6 were to guys who were wide open with no one within 5 yards of them. Now this may not be all the plays as I said I watched the game break down but come on it’s Utep and he played this way, by no means does he have a better arm at best I would say he is even with Glennon on arm strength if not a bit under Glennon. Glennon will go in the first round and maybe first overall, Jones will be a late 2nd to 3rd round pick.

      • soonerfan glenn

        as a Sooner fan i have watched Landry Jones play every game for the Sooners and i would hate it if he came here to KC, yes he has a big arm but he also makes very poor decisions and gets happy feet under pressure which then makes him make even worse decisions and throw INT’s the guy is a middle range back up at best and ill be happy to see him leave my sooners was hoping he would go pro last year.

        • Leon Ritz

          Sounds like just like Matt Cassel, only Cassel doesn’t have the big arm. If Cassel could only have as much talent as he does work ethic and heart we would be in great shape. He’s a great worker just can’t take it to the field for whatever reason.

  • Michael Shaw

    I think we should take Manti Te’o with our #1 because he won’t last past the 5th pick. He is that damn good. As for moving up into the first round, I think I have a better way to do that. Franchise Bowe and get him to sign the franchise tag tender and then trade him to whatever team will give us 1st and 4th or a 2nd and 3rd round pick. He drops too many balls and i am convinced that Baldwin can surpass him easily if he has the right QB throwing down field to him. I know a lot of people are in love with DBowe and i am a fan as well, but I saw him quit on quite a few plays this year and I am also tired of watching the kid miss easy passes only to make a few spectacular catches. I want a possession receiver and Bowe simply is not. Plus there are a lot of teams out there that might think they can turn Bowe into a better reciever (Thinking Pittsburgh and a Haley reunion!). Then with those extra picks we move into the mid to bottom part of the 1st round and either take Geno Smith, Klein from K-state or any QB that is NOT named Matt Barkley! USC has proven in my eyes to put out sub par QB’s and I for one don’t want to waste our time with another USC hopeful. I guarantee you that if we take Barkley we will regret it!!!!! I don’t know anything about Glennon so I will have to defer that to someone else. I doubt Geno will be available if we move back up into round 1, but I think Klein could be just as good considering he was up for the heisman this year and has started all four years at K-State if I am not mistaken. Not a K-State fan, but from what I have seen he could be our guy if Smith and Glennon are gone. This was a bad year to figure out we needed a QB……….OH WAIT, the fans knew two years ago, the organizational twits running our beloved Chiefs were too full of pride to agree with us!!!!

  • drtold

    I don’t care if we get Geno or Te’o, I just want us to please pick up the Honey Badger in the second round.

  • big chief

    I say no because they won’t win anything with a rookie qb. There is no Andrew Luck in this draft. Thinking they could morgage everything for a rookie qb to win now is a pipedream

    • Michael Shaw

      I am sure that is what Seahawks fans were thinking when the coach said they were starting Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn………………………Just saying that anything is possible.

  • Nico Marquez

    I say draft Te’o, also try and trade for Kirk Cousins or Greg McElroy. Shoot right now i wouldnt mind them taking Alex Smith. All three of those guys are better than the quarterbacks that we have now. I would think that we could get them with only a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Also I would tag bowe and resign Albert.

    • Drewfish

      but why all were doing is bringing in more mediocre qb play…we need an elite qb!

      • Nico Marquez

        well we certainly arent going to get one in this years draft

        • Tarkus

          How do you know?

        • uhursh

          thats such a load of garbage. I didnt hear anyone touting cousins as an answer, mcelroy as an answer before the draft, or ever frankly. I didnt hear anyone saying “wow, seahawks really got a steal with russell wilson there, franchise QB”. no, they questioned it with the recent flynn signing as being stupid.
          you are really in with the people who believe that ALL the qb’s in this draft are mediocre, identical, and have no chance of developing into franchise qb’s? so ignorant.

    • uhursh

      mcelroy? this is what is SO FUNNY to me. we want all these qb’s who werent first round picks in recent drafts. does that tell you anything about the recent qb’s, they have been good, prepared, ready to go. this group is no different, cousins was not some amazing prospect last year, and people want to give up a 2 now, mcelroy wasnt even taken in the first 150 picks. I mean seriously?

  • ArrowFan

    I’m starting to warm to the idea of a non QB player first then who ever we can get at QB second. One question how can say the 30th first round pick be worth the same in value as the first. If we do have the #1 over all pick it seems to me that our second round pick would be worth about the same as a latter first round pick? So far up could we get in the first round if we are selling our 2nd and third rd picks, 20th or so?

  • ArrowFan

    Another thought would be acquiring Case Daniels from the Saints. Personally I would rather have him than Alex Smith. We could even swing a trade like that before the draft.

    • Drewfish

      are you nuckin futs…..Chase Daniel really??

  • Cindy Pinnick-Hendrix

    The only reason Jackson has stepped up his game is for a paycheck. He has seen the writing on the wall that he will likely be cut and wants to make sure if he is that he can get the money he thinks he should get if picked up by another team. He has done nothing to help this team and has a poor work ethic LAZY.

  • Danny W

    Who wouldn’t want Teo and a first round quarterback. Mortgage the future we’re young enough as it is. Let’s start winning for heavens sakes.

  • Bean, Mr.

    After the coaching/GM issues are resolved, the management in place should make a very hard determination whether Te’o, a likely star in the NFL, is more valuable to the defense than a NON-elite QB would be to the offense. Assuming Te’o is available to the Chiefs in Round 1… There WILL be a serviceable QB available in Round 2 who is a definite upgrade for the Chiefs. If, as all the experts seem to agree, there is no elite QB in the draft this year, I think this will be a very easy–and smart–choice. The Chiefs are destined to end the season 2-14, so here we go, Te’o. Fans, please just hold your rage; this can work. With some future deft moves, that elite QB can enter the scene down the road. Just remember all the Super Bowl champions with definitely-NOT-elite QBs–they all had great defenses… I rest my case.
    [Disclaimer: all alleged facts pulled from my--well, let's just say they're not verified. : ) ]

    • uhursh

      see this is where you are incredibly misguided.
      “non elite QB”
      really? how much tape have you watched? how much time have you spent on this? you are listening to the “experts” who put russell wilson and cousins as “reaches” in the third, and now praise them as the picks that make this crop of qb’s look pedestrian. what a joke. so there is no russell wilson, no cousins, in this draft? they are all mediocre qb’s with a limited ceiling?
      I mean really.

      • Bean, Mr.

        But have a nice day, anyway. And try to acknowledge mentally the conversational disclaimers “should,” “if,” “assuming” something is so, “can” and “could” while you are reading OPINIONS. It might help you.

      • Bean, Mr.

        Your comments are both rude and obnoxious. A congenial “opinion” session is not the place for attacks on whether or not someone has “watched film” or is informed or not–just because you disagree. This is why I HATE Comments forums and wonder why I bother to entertain people like you with my opinions.

    • uhursh

      some would argue eli and roethlisberger are not “elite”. yet they win super bowls.

  • Outback Chief

    I would give Geno Smith a look at QB but I’m too interested in Matt Barkley, or Mike Glennon till late in the first round or second,I’d rather take a chance on Marcus Mariota if he comes out but I doubt he will.And Jarvis Jones is the best LB in the draft

  • Outback Chief

    Also drafting Honey Badger in the 4-5 round would be a decent gamble

  • Outback Chief

    Collin Klein in the 3rd would be a good backup too

  • mnelson52

    There are very few if any other teams wanting to use their 1st round pick on a QB this year. The top 4 or 5 QBs this year are about the same quality, none outstanding. We should trade our 1st for a different 1st and maybe a 3rd. Take best player available in first and QB in the second.

  • Richard Valdez

    id take Geno #1 and rd 2 take Tyler Wilson 2

  • Jeff D

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we pick some quarterback who has actually ran the west coast offense. He might not be the long term solution, but we’re talking about changing an entire system. Personally I can’t wait. Who would fit that description?

    • Tarkus

      Even though you’re not talking about the draft, Barkley is supposed to be ideal for the WCO, and is also ready to start day 1, being a four year starter in a pro style offense. He’s not necessarily my first choice, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s how they went.

  • Jeff D

    Actually, I meant to say “sign a quarterback” to run the west coast offense, not draft one.