Of Combines and Correlations – Part 5
By Double D
In today’s installment, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs’ 5th round draft pick, CB/S DeQuan Menzie’s turn to be measured, weighed, and assessed under Joe Landers’ forecasting model. In so doing, we’ll operate from the assumption that the Chiefs intend to work Menzie primarily as a Safety rather than as a Cornerback (noting that CB is the position for which Menzie was best known at Bama, playing opposite Dre Kirkpatrick).
We’ll start off by looking at Landers’ peer averages and first teamer EPA percentages (bolded metrics again being the most important) for the Safety position.:
Short Shuttle: 4.25 sec; 46% of 1st teamers scored an EPA
Long Shuttle: 11.61 sec; 23% of 1st teamers scored an EPA
Three Cone: 7.04 sec; 46% of 1st teamers scored an EPA
Vertical Jump: 35.82”; 46% of 1st teamers scored an EPA
Broad Jump: 119”; 29% of 1st teamers scored an EPA
Forty yard dash: 4.58 sec; 74% of 1st teamers scored an EPA (70% & 69% of Safety prospects were two deepers or made roster, respectively)
Bench Reps: 16.33; 31% of 1st teamers scored an EPA
Put simply, all a Safety prospect has to do is achieve one measly EPA, in the 40 yard dash, and he’s got a pretty good shot, statistically speaking, of making first team within his first 5 years in the league. None of the other combine metrics seem to matter at all for this position. Landers basically sums this all up in saying that for safeties, “it’s all about fit.”
So how did the Quan’s performance stand up against his peers?
DeQuan Menzie’s (5’11”, 202 lbs) Combine (*Pro Day) Metrics:
*Short Shuttle: 4.25 sec
*Long Shuttle: 12.05 sec
*Three Cone: 6.93sec; EPA
Vertical Jump: 33”
Broad Jump: 116”
Forty yard dash: 4.67 sec
Bench Reps: Did not participate
Oops.
You see, while Menzie did score one EPA, it unfortunately was not the right one. And if we are to put any stock in Joe Landers research, the forecast for DeQuan Menzie is that he will face an uphill battle, statistically speaking, to even make roster over the next few seasons.
Ouch.
All considered, I am not too sure I want to give DeQuan Menzie the responsibility of covering slot receivers and tight ends, or lunging at running backs for that matter, if he doesn’t have the speed to finish the play. At the same time, Menzie’s rep is that of guy that can lay on a pretty good hit so there may be a spot for him as a 4th safety and on special teams.
That’s my Double Take.
What’s your take Addicts? Do you feel that Menzie will beat the odds, perhaps even start for the Chiefs someday? Perhaps a better question is, is he an upgrade over Shabby Piscatelli? Taking this further still, do you feel that DeQuan Menzie should be considered an exception to Landers’ predictive model and if so, why? Please put your responses in essay form, 500 words or less. You have 30 minutes. Begin now.