On Wednesday, AA Staff Writer Andrew Crocker offered the intriguing idea of Trading To The Future in this draft so the Chiefs could select a QB in next year’s draft, since there are so many quality QB’s coming out next year.
The reality is that the Chiefs cannot upgrade Matt Cassel in 2012. There are no options in free agency that are appealing, and there are no options in the Draft that can push him. But that changes in 2013. In 2013, there will be no fewer than four quarterbacks coming out of college with first-round grades.
The projected QBs coming out next season include: Matt Barkley of USC, Tyler Bray of Tennessee, Landry Jones of Oklahoma and Tyler Wilson of Arkansas.
So, how can the Chiefs use their current draft picks to create the best possible draft position in next years draft? First, we need to predict the possible worst five or ten teams in the league because they would then be the best trade partners for trading away this year’s first round pick to gain a high first round pick next season.
Here’s the current worst ten teams in the league:
The teams in this group that I would expect to make the largest jump up the drafting order include:
1. The Redskins- I have such great respect for RGIII’s ability and his pairing with Mike Shanahan should help them compete for a division title almost immediately.
2. The Rams- Jeff Fisher is a far above average coach and players respond to him well. He’s consistent and did a good job helping to orchestrate the trade with the Redskins that brought them a bevy of other picks which should help the Rams right away.
3. The Bills- they started out strong last season but faded into oblivion by season’s end. If Fitzpatrick bounces back and justifies his new contract and if Super Mario helps their defense like he’s expect to they should climb their way into teens.
4. The Panthers- since it’s a QB centric league the Panthers should be able to add enough pieces to help Mr. Newton elevate their record out of the worst ten bracket.
That leaves the Colts, Vikings, Browns, Bucs Jags, and Dolphins.
It may be a tricky wicket guessing which teams would finish at the bottom of the league but, if I had to guess, I’d say it’s going to be one of these six. WalterFootball.com says it’ll be the Jags.
Who else could join them if they perform badly this coming season?
The Arizona Cardinals- if Kevin Kolb doesn’t rebound and then rise to the expectations they had for him when they first traded with the Eagles to attain him, it could be a long cold winter for the Cards.
The Seattle Seahawks- the same scenario holds true for the Seahawks as it does for the Cards. If newly acquired Matt Flynn falls on his face in his first season as a starting QB, the Hawks could be crashing the worst ten party in a big sad way.
The important question we’re trying to answer here is:
Who would be the best trade partner for the Chiefs to trade away their first round pick this season, for that team’s first round pick next season?
After all, trading this year’s first rounder for someone elses first rounder next season is very… Belichick-onomical.
When considering this process I’d like to point out that the AFC West will likely be a similar scenario to last season’s results with several teams vying for the division crown until the last week of the season, although I believe some teams will have a couple more wins under their belts next year. Including the Chiefs.
Consequently, there will probably not be any AFC West teams joining the bottom ten. However, it’s all purely speculation. However, since we’re speculating, here’s my guess based upon the evaluation up to this point:
1. Colts- If they take Andrew Luck I believe they’re going nowhere fast. Not in their first season anyway. Peyton Manning was 3-13 his first year and I see no reason to believe that Luck will be any luckier.
Would the Colts be a good trade partner? Possibly. Jim Irsay has to spend the 35 Million he saved by releasing Manning to free agency on someone, right?. Might as well be the 11th pick in the draft this season.
2. Jags- Blaine Gabbert just seems to be the worst bet at QB this coming season. No matter how great Maurice-Jones Drew is, unless he can learn to throw accurately, 50 yards down field, the Jax look dead in the water this season.
Would the Jags make a good trade partner? Maybe not. They are in need of a good QB too and they may be looking to draft a QB in next year’s draft as well.
3. Dolphins- If the Dolphins have a teams this season it may be made up of senior citizens. They seem to be the only people who want to go to that part of Florida. Unless the Dolphins can find some actual football players who want to take their talents to South Beach, Miami may be a great place for every other NFL team to get a victory this season.
Would the Dolphins be a good trade partner? Yes and no. If the Dolphins could be enticed to forfeit their 2013 first round pick the Chiefs would likely be in the perfect position to get whichever college QB they want. Also, this could happen because the Dolphins may realize the only way to get anyone to come and play for them is… to draft them. In that case, the sooner the better for them. However, since they need a QB too, they may be inclined to wait it out until the next draft in hopes of landing a top QB prospect.
4. Bucs- Although the Bucs did make a couple of big free agent signings this off season, I don’t believe they’re record is going anywhere. They still have too many holes to fill and they have spent a load of money on a few specific players.
Would the Bucs be a good trade partner? Yes. They already have a good young QB so they might be more inclined to trade away next year’s first round pick to gain one now. The Bucs may finish with a better record than the Browns but, I think they’d probably make a better trade partner. Especially if Colt McCoy flubs up again this year and they have to go QB shopping next off season. Then again, if Ryan Tannehill is still around for the 11th pick in the draft… and if the Browns have already taken another highly touted prospect at number four… maybe they’d be the perfect trade partner.
Of course, the Chiefs should expect to gain some other compensation along with forfeiting their first round selection this year so, they could pick up a second or a third round choice, if a team gets focused on a player they just have to have now.
Beyond this scenario, the Chiefs could offer their second round pick this year… to a team who’s in hurry now… for their first round pick next season.
Stranger things have happened.