2012 NFL Mock Draft Primer

Well, it’s mock draft time and hardcore fans will be sending out mocks fast and furious. Every year we see a wide variety of mocks that range from solid to fanciful, and as with logical discourse, there are some logical fallacies that seem to occur year after year. No matter, Merlin is on the case. It’s time to flesh out some of my favorite fallacies.

1] Fill all primary needs first through Free Agency, then draft for need.

Nothing opens up a draft board better than signing every high profile free agent that fills a need. The mocker gets bonus points for producing a depth chart and talking about what great depth we have. You put a few top free agents on just about any team and they look pretty good.

2] The convenient fallers

This is one of my personal favorites. Each year, there are some players that fall in the draft. For example, in round three, the Chiefs got a second round talent in Jon Asamoah. It should not have happened, but it did. The problem comes when you rely on that to load your draft up. You like three players in round two? No problem, assume one falls to round three. Bonus points are awarded for a grabbing your last second round player in round four. As painful as it is, find a reputable draft board and stick to it when constructing your mock. Sure, anyone can produce a great mock getting a first round talent in round two, a second round talent in round three, etc.

3A] Assuming a trade up or down

Yes, trades happen every year. However, they are very hard to predict. Other than the Browns trading up for RG3, I would not assume any trade up or down. Last year’s Chiefs were a prime example. You just could not predict that the Chiefs would be able to pull off a trade down. To make a trade, someone has to be sitting there that a team is willing to give up multiple picks to get. Until the board starts to fall, you can’t know who will be there at #11 that a team will be willing to trade multiple picks to get. It may happen, but you can’t count on it.

3B] The multiple trade downs

This is a more extreme version of 3A and takes a basic form. You trade down two or more times, accumulate several picks in the first three rounds. Then, you draft and smile. Look at all that talent I just got! Right, now go down to the pool hall and execute that jumping quadruple bank shot and get back to me when you are done.

4] The 102Win draft

This is a personal favorite of mine. Arrowhead Addict used to have a commenter with the handle 102win (or something close to that). He loved the draft and his mocks would take on this basic form. Trade several established stars for high draft picks and draft. In the spirit of 102Win, I’ll put on my drafting hat and imagine what he would do. He would be unloading Bowe, Carr, Dorsey and Cassel for at least two firsts and two seconds. Add a trade down for another third and he comes up with six picks in the first three rounds. Then, he produces a draft and marvels at the talent he got. Come back to AA, 102Win. I miss you and your off the wall ideas.

5] My trash is someone else’s treasure

Fans tend to overvalue the trade value of their players. People that think that player X stinks and needs to be replaced ASAP are also looking for a second round pick in return. Trades need to be fair from both sides. If you will not give up an X round pick for player Y, then don’t assume you will get it back from another team. A current example is the trade value of Matt Cassel. Do you really think he is worth a second round pick? I don’t think he is. The highest I would give for him is a fourth round pick. As a side note, a late first round pick to a high second round pick is about where I see Brandon Carr’s trade value, at best.

Mocks are there for fun and have fun with yours. However, the more honest your mock is, the better your chances are for getting into a nice discussion. Have fun and enjoy the draft season!