The 2012 Kansas City Chiefs: What Are The Chances?

So, that happened. Another NFL season (and postseason) has come and gone. Forgive my lack of enthusiasm as I watched the New York Giants win the Super Bowl for the fourth time in my lifetime, and the New England Patriots lose it for the fourth time (to go along with their three championships). In fact, in the 38 Super Bowls I have lived through (not that I really remember Super Bowls IX through, oh, XV or XVI), 27 different teams have participated. Not one of them has been the Kansas City Chiefs—their Super Bowl appearances live in other people’s memories.

But the good news, of course, is that as soon as Tom Brady’s last “Hail Myra” pass landed incomplete in the end zone and Super Bowl XLVI officially came to an end, the Chiefs were immediately back in contention. All eyes, and odds, are now focused on 2012-13, and the earliest probabilities are already in. The MGM Grand Las Vegas and at least one leading gaming site have opened betting season with the Chiefs as 50-1 shots to win Super Bowl XLVII, which is as good or better than 13 other teams. Not quite as favorable as the 40-1 odds they were given a year ago, but much better than the one-in-100 chance set before the Chiefs’ 2010 AFC West Championship season.

In other words, the odds-makers don’t really know what they’re doing, at least at this stage—out of last year’s top five preseason favorites, three didn’t even make the playoffs. But for fans, it’s amusing to see just how favorably (or not) our team’s prospects are marked in the books of various distinguished sports-betting establishments, and ask ourselves, “What if…?”

Last year at this time, I made a list of the XLVI reasons the Chiefs could win it all. A number of those “reasons” are now no longer with the team or else tore up their knees within the first few weeks of the season. So I’ve learned my lesson—and I’m not about to try to come up with XLVII reasons now. After all, so many things can happen: the most important players can get hurt, the coach can go crazy, the GM can go crazier…I mean, what are the odds?

Ah. Good question. Why don’t we find out?

So-called proposition (“prop”) bets were all the rage at this year’s Super Bowl (Who will be ahead at halftime? Will Al Michaels mention Tim Tebow before kickoff? Will Madonna slip…twice? During what quarter will they run that damn Ferris Bueller ad?), so I threw together a list of prop bets for the Chiefs’ 2012 season. Remember, these are just the initial odds, and the odds-maker doesn’t really know what he’s doing. So if you disagree with any of the probabilities—or have a few sure-thing prop bets of your own—feel free to adjust and/or share in the comments.

STARTING ODDS

Matt Cassel will be the Chiefs’ starting quarterback on Opening Day.

4-3

Jamaal Charles will return to form and rush for 1,600 yards

9-2

Thomas Jones will return to form and rush for 400 yards.

12-1

Tamba Hali will break Derrick Thomas’s single-game sack record.

58-1

The Chiefs will again finish 7-9.

3-1

The Chiefs will finish 7-9 and win the AFC West.

4-1

The Chiefs will trade up to select Robert Griffin III in the 2012 NFL Draft.

8-1

The Chiefs will trade down for the rights to select Robert Griffin IV in the 2036 NFL Draft.

40-1

The Chiefs will tag Dwayne Bowe as a franchise player.

5-2

Barry Richardson and Sabby Piscitelli will become major players in a new Dunkin’ Donuts franchise.

5-1

The Chiefs will acquire Peyton Manning.

19-2

If acquired, Manning will back up Cassel.

7-2

Romeo Crennel, as a motivational tool, will stop shaving or showering so long as his team is winning.

35-1

Tony Gonzalez will score at least one touchdown in his 98th and final game at Arrowhead Stadium.

6-1

Brian Daboll will be relieved mid-season so that Cassel will have the “opportunity” to work with a sixth offensive coordinator.

14-1

Scott Pioli will attempt to bug and/or videotape Todd Haley’s practices at the Steelers’ facilities before the Chiefs’ game at Pittsburgh.

15-1

Pioli will simply rely on the bugs already placed in Haley’s phone and car.

4-1

Pioli and Clark Hunt will bring in Len Dawson to compete with Cassel for the starting quarterback job.

16-1

Pioli will attempt to trade Hunt for Robert Kraft.

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So, any takers? And what do you think of the Chiefs’ chances?