How Stevie Johnson Broke Our Pass Rush (Updated With Stats)

@Big Matt My numbers include every DL (DE or DT/NT) on each teams roster. Over the last year and a half those teams total DL sacks average about 8 per season, so the starting DEs alone would be even less. So if you don't want to count Gilberry towards ours then fine. You are still talking about a position that accounts for a very minimal amount of pass rush from teams using the same scheme. The fact that LBs are clearly the position that are suppose to get to the QB the most and all are other LBs not named Tamba have a total of 1 sack this season to me is a bigger problem then the 0 from Jackson and Dorsey.

@LyleGraversen Your #s do indeed involve every DL. But my article that started this back-and-forth was about Dorsey and Jackson. if you include the rest of our line, it makes the problem seem less pronounced. If you look at the players I originally referenced, vs their counterparts, you see a WIDE gap. other teams' starting ends get to the quarterback at a much, much higher rate than ours do. In terms of %, our linebackers are getting what, half as many sacks as the best in the league? Not great, I agree. But the average starting 3-4 end has 10 QB pressures this year. Ours have combined for 2. The pace there is 4 QB pressuress to 20. So while our linebackers might only be half as good as the absolute best, our line is 20% as good as the AVERAGE 3-4 line. Tell me, which of those things is more significant?

@Big Matt Your solution involves the Chiefs either switching schemes mid season or playing someone at a position where they aren't suited for what they feel is the primary responsibility of that position. I get that you don't think stopping the run should be the primary responsibility, but I don't think you're going to get Romeo to abandon his beliefs on how the system works. On the other hand, getting more pressure via the LBs is not a major shift. In fact it follows the very philosophy that the 3-4 was founded on. Look at the quote I gave below. The Chiefs aren't taking advantage of the main strength of the 3-4.

@LyleGraversen because they can't. At least thats what Romeo apparently thinks. and if they can't do it the way it was drawn up 20 years ago, maybe its time to try something new? Slightly new?

@Big Matt really!? I think this all started with a loss to the dolphins. Why did we lose... pass rush, ok I can follow. Who is to blame, starting DEs. That's where im confused. Based on YOUR own stats above those great 3-4 starting DEs average 7 sacks a year... so whats that like a 40% chance they get a single sack in a game? Your telling me that if we subed those guys in for tjax and dorsey that would make a difference? A 40% chance of 1 whole sack would not have made a difference last week! So once every 2 weeks our boys up front miss out on a sack, and we are supposed to believe that is our biggest opportunity on a team that has gotten blown out 3 times this year!? Blitz the linebackers for gods sake!

@Hughes627 Well like I said in this piece I think he feels he has to in order to hide the horrible safety coverage we're running out there. I mean look at how he treats Flowers and Carr on the outside. He consistently trusts them in 1 on 1 coverage so its not that he's afraid to gamble if the players are up for it. He clearly (at least in my opinion) doesn't think our safeties (and likely nickel backs and LBs) aren't up for it. Therefore he's tried to clog the middle of the field with a lot of bodies so there aren't wide open spaces to throw the ball. That only works if Tamba can apply pressure and for a while he was. Now that Miami has exposed us I think he's going to have to make a change going forward. I'm hoping that involves some real blitz packages.

@Hughes627 the 3-4 is Romeos baby. I think Lyle nailed it on the head... romeo built this version of the 3-4 around Berry. Take him out of the equation and we are a different team. A versatile strong safety jack of all trades... remind anyone of someone. I see a lot of comparisons to Troy Polomalu, and as good as their defense has been, whenever he missed time that defense was a shell of itself.

@LyleGraversen I guess I'm the "I need stats or i don't believe you" crowd? here is the only time, in this discussion, I have ever asked for stats of any kind: "You'd have to drop A LOT of #s to even establish that causality." The causality in question being, Berry out=blitz less=worse pass defense. i thought I was clear on that, but maybe not. This is the internet, after all. In any case, your numbers don't address that at all, as far as I can see. I'll talk about what they do address above.

@Big Jim I believe it is the number of times one of your comments have been "Liked" by someone. If you want to test it out feel free to go through and like all my comments in this thread and watch my score light up like a pinball machine. (what can I say, I'm shameless)

@Big Jim Whoa there Big Jim! Be careful or you'll get a reputation for being "easy".

@LyleGraversen Lyle don't hesitate to spread that rumor. I need all the help I can get. And besides I passed easy a long time ago.

@Big Jim It's all good Jim, I don't take it as taking shots at me. I love a good debate with Big Matt. These blogs are the best when you get people on two different sides of an issue both making well thought out points. Sometimes readers can end up taking away more from the debates in the comments then they can from the post itself. Take Paddy's piece from earlier, he dropped a TON of knowledge in the comments section.

@Big Jim I hold mucho respect for comrade Graverson. Was I taking shots? i didn't say anything personal. Although saying his piece fell "way short", yeah, I probably could've put that better. Its solid stuff as usual, I just thought it was combatting Paddy's facts with gut opinions.

No problem Matt. I was just having a little fun at your expense.

@Big Matt Here's a quote from an article on the 3-4 defense: "Here's what a 3-4 gives you that a 4-3 doesn't: more flexibility to create winning matchups," ESPN analyst and former NFL running back Merril Hoge says. "There are more moving parts. More options. Will the outside linebacker rush the quarterback or cover the running back? Who's blitzing? A safety? A cornerback? An inside linebacker? All three? If you watch the Steelers on TV, the illusion they give you is that they're bringing six or seven guys," says Hoge, freezing an image of that defense on a monitor in the basement office of his home in Fort Thomas, Ky. "You can imagine why they do it: That's the illusion they give to offenses. But they never bring more than five. You just don't know which ones are coming." Link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2008-01-03-defense-cover_N.htm

@Big Matt Right on Big Matt! They don't have all the right personnel in place yet. I am also curious why they don't stunt Tamba so that he half circles around to come in over the center. At least I have never seen it done. Freeney & Mathis do that all the time.

@big chief "Anyway, the point is it was nice to read something fact based and well thought out that didn't leave me wondering if the writer gets all his material by playing Madden and seeing what works. Good job." This type of thing doesn't do anybody any good, man. If you disagree with something, fine, but accusing people you don't know of getting everything from Madden is pretty wack. There's no need for it. Also, no disrespect to Lyle (ever), but where is this research you're mentioning? This seems like a post chock full of opinions to me. Paddy's post was obviously the one that was thoroughly researched.

@Big Matt@BIG Come on Big Matt. It's well researched when it supports what you were thinking all along. Stay with us here, big guy.

@sidibeke @BIG I said thoroughly researched. You disagree with that?

@Big Matt@BIG Why do numbers equal research? Why are stats fact based and what people see with there eyes less believed? If Lyle rewatched tape from the chiefs games, keying in on the line play, and the LBs role is that not research. The problem to me is that football research should be more watching and interpreting what you see on the field, and less letting a stat site like pro football focus take all the though out of it for you. Just because someone is the lowest ranked at something doesnt mean there are not other factors to that. A QB could have a WR drop every pass he threw perfectly at him, he would be the lowest rated QB, and yet could still be the most talented. Games should be watched, and stats used only to put into context what is being seen. The eyes don't lie, stats often do.

@Gjrchief @BIG "Why are stats fact based and what people see with there eyes less believed?" Do I really need to answer this? Our eyes lie to us ALL THE TIME. Because what your eyes see is colored by what you want them to see. you can't remove your own biases. And I don't mean you personally. None of us can. This is the entire reason sabermetrics took off in baseball, and have now totally refined and improved the way the game is understood. Because eyes, even trained ones, cannot always be trusted. They're not impartial. Numbers are. "Dorsey played X amount of snaps against the pass." Thats a fact, there is no disputing it. "I think we'd blitz more if Berry were playing." NOT A FACT. Thats an opinion. Watching a game and forming an opinion isn't research. At least, not when compared to hours of studying data. We can agree on that, right?

@Big Matt@BIG We cannot agree on that. I guarantee you that as Romeo researches the Broncos this week he will spend a shit load more time actually watching game film, then he will belly up to a computer pulling up data from pro football focus.

@Big Matt@BIG Also I am curious... Where do these stats come from? Are they magically put in the computer? Or is someone actually watching the games! But wait based on what you just said those people watching the games are seeing what they want to see with their own bias. How can we trust stats then?

@Big Matt@BIG OK OK, you dont get your knowledge from Madden, but is it fair to say you get your love of stats from a Brad Pitt movie.... No offense meant, just a joke, trying to lighten the mood.

@Gjrchief @BIG because they're compiled by multiple sets of eyes, not affiliated with the team, watching every player on every play. A little more extensive than one dude watching a game.

@Big Matt @BIG I was referring to the understanding of how a 3-4 defense is supposed to work. Whether he looked it up or he already knew he seems to get it. Stats don't really tell the whole story more often than not but the also aren't useless.

I agree, unleash the dogs and let's see what happens. The thought of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers sitting back with all the time in the world because no blitz is coming is enough to keep me up at night.

@LyleGraversen Of course, the thought of Shabby or Donnie in coverage is equally terrifying. Whoever we blitz better get there QUICKLY.

Maybe we should be blitzing Shabby and Donald then?

@Gjrchief Thanks, I have to give credit to Paddy for his piece. I knew the Chiefs weren't sending their LBs much but his post showed just how little its happening.