Accuscore: NFL Playoff Shifts For Week 2

NFL PLAYOFF SHIFTS WEEK 2
By Jonathan Lee
AccuScore Analyst

AccuScore offers a professional-grade expert betting system that highlights weekly NFL Picks with the best chance of success. AccuScore uses historical performances to calculate the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.

AFC

The Luke McCown experiment has already imploded in Jacksonville.  The Jaguars got six completions and four interceptions from their quarterback in a 29 point home blowout.  As a result, they dropped nearly 18 percentage points in playoff probability to just 8.8 percent (which is probably still too high).  The team in firm control of the AFC South is Houston, the only 2-0 team in the division.  The Texans gained 21 percentage points not only because of another solid win but also because AccuScore now projects Peyton Manning to miss the entirety of the season.  Last week, computer simulations still had Manning playing the final weeks of the season.  The Colts are making the playoffs in just 2.9 percent of simulations, the lowest number in the AFC.  The biggest competition for Houston appears to be Tennessee which is now 30.2 percent likely for a playoff spot after a big win over Baltimore.

The hottest division in football is the AFC East, the only division with three 2-0 teams.  The Jets dismantling of the Jags led to a gain of 18.8 percentage points in playoff probability.  They still trail the Patriots, however, who actually lost ground after Week 2. There isn’t much ground to gain since New Englands is projected as the most likely team to reach the postseason at nearly 92 percent.  The biggest surprise is 2-0 Buffalo who is now 33.2 percent likely for a playoff spot, nearly twice as high as last week.  The Dolphins are the one complete dud in the group with only a 0.4 percent chance to win the division.

The Raiders’ loss to Buffalo was probably the best finish of Week 2, but the loss significantly damaged Oakland’s playoff chances.  The game was a very winnable non-division contest that the Raiders led late.  Oakland lost 14.4 percentage points this week and is now 14.2 percent likely to win the West.  The Chargers are still the best team in the division in simulations despite a loss to New England.  San Diego is the second likeliest team to win a playoff spot at 85.8 percent.  Denver came back to get its first win, but the Broncos are still longshots at just 1.8 percent to win the division.  Kansas City, meanwhile, is tied with Indianapolis as the worst team in the conference.

All four teams in the AFC North are 1-1 after 2 weeks.  Pittsburgh regained 7.4 percentage points after a rough Week 1 and now leads.  The Steelers are 57.1 percent likely to win the division followed by Baltimore at 39.5 percent.  The Ravens lost 15.8 percentage points in playoff probability after a surprising loss to Tennessee.  The Browns got a win but only gained 3.2 percentage points because of the strength of the two teams ahead of them.  Cincinnati is in the same position despite showing more moxie than previously predicted.

AFC WEEK 1 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK2 WK2 % DIFF WIN DIV
HOUSTON TEXANS 50.5% 71.6% 21.1% 67.3%
NEW YORK JETS 51.0% 69.8% 18.8% 26.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 18.0% 33.2% 15.2% 7.6%
TENNESSEE TITANS 19.8% 30.2% 10.4% 23.2%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 78.1% 85.4% 7.4% 57.1%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 3.9% 7.1% 3.2% 1.9%
DENVER BRONCOS 1.9% 2.9% 1.0% 1.8%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 92.2% 91.8% -0.3% 65.2%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 9.2% 7.1% -2.1% 1.5%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 88.6% 85.8% -2.8% 82.2%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 5.9% 2.9% -3.0% 1.9%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 11.4% 3.9% -7.5% 0.4%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 16.2% 2.9% -13.3% 2.3%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 38.0% 23.6% -14.4% 14.2%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 88.8% 73.0% -15.8% 39.5%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 26.6% 8.8% -17.9% 7.2%

NFC

On Monday night, Atlanta got one of the most impressive wins of the week by beating the Eagles at home.  As a result, the Falcons made the biggest jump, gaining 18 percentage points in probability.  They are now in a very crowded group hovering near 50-50 for a playoff spot.  The Saints are projected significantly higher at 82.7 percent.  Tampa Bay pulled off an exciting road win against the Vikings but gained just 2.3 percentage points due to Atlanta and New Orleans winning.  Cam Newton has electrified Carolina’s passing game, but that hasn’t yet translated into victories.  The Panthers are still clearly the fourth best team in the division and are the least likely team to make the playoffs in the NFC.

Washington is the only 2-0 team in the NFC East, but the Redskins saw no change in their playoff probability after a one point win over Arizona.  The Redskins were already favored over the Cardinals, and they are more likely competing for a Wild Card spot rather than a division title.  Philadelphia is still the favorite despite losing 6.3 percentage points this week.  Dallas is actually close behind the Eagles, making the playoffs in 48.3 percent of simulations.  The Cowboys, though, are already dealing with injuries to Austin Miles and Felix Jones as well as Tony Romo.  New York got a solid win over the Rams but is still trailing several teams in the race for a playoff spot.  The Giants are the ninth most likely team to make the postseason at 32.8 percent.

You know it’s a different NFL season when the Lions are more likely to make the playoffs than not.  Detroit is 2-0, has a 52.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, and has scored the most points in the league.  Green Bay is the third highest scoring team through two weeks and is the most likely team to win a playoff spot at 92.8 percent.  Chicago was the biggest loser this week after showing even more problems on the offensive line and getting lit up by New Orleans on the road.  The Bears dropped a whopping 26.8 percentage points and have just a 5.9 percent chance at winning the North.  Minnesota has not looked great through two weeks, and the Vikings have just a 1 in 11 chance at the postseason.

San Francisco lost to the Dallas Cowboys in overtime and blew a golden chance to really take control of the NFC West.  Still, the Niners are more likely to make the playoffs than not at 50.5 percent.  Arizona is next in line at 34.5 percent, virtually no change from a week ago.  The Rams were a trendy pick by many people to win the West, but a very difficult early schedule could put them in too big of a hole to come back from.  Seattle is also a real longshot at just 7.4 percent.

NFC WEEK 1 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK2 WK2 % DIFF WIN DIV
ATLANTA FALCONS 29.6% 47.6% 18.0% 23.7%
DALLAS COWBOYS 39.3% 48.3% 9.0% 33.3%
DETROIT LIONS 45.6% 52.2% 6.6% 15.0%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 88.9% 92.8% 3.9% 77.4%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 80.2% 82.7% 2.5% 65.9%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 22.8% 25.2% 2.3% 9.6%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 8.4%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 34.6% 34.5% -0.1% 32.0%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 7.7% 7.4% -0.3% 6.4%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 9.8% 9.4% -0.4% 1.7%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 3.7% 2.5% -1.2% 0.8%
NEW YORK GIANTS 34.8% 32.8% -2.0% 19.5%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 52.8% 50.5% -2.3% 47.2%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 18.7% 15.8% -3.0% 14.4%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 59.7% 53.5% -6.3% 38.8%
CHICAGO BEARS 55.4% 28.6% -26.8% 5.9%
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